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Zuziak M, Ezzati M. Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet 2024; 403:1027-1050. [PMID: 38432237 PMCID: PMC7615769 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)02750-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. METHODS We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). FINDINGS From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. INTERPRETATION The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.
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Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development. Nature 2023; 615:874-883. [PMID: 36991188 PMCID: PMC10060164 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05772-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023]
Abstract
Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
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Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants. Lancet 2021; 398:957-980. [PMID: 34450083 PMCID: PMC8446938 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01330-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 938] [Impact Index Per Article: 312.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Revised: 06/01/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. METHODS We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. FINDINGS The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. INTERPRETATION Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. FUNDING WHO.
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Velika B, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Viegi G, Viet L, Villalpando S, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visser M, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vladulescu M, Vlasoff T, Vocanec D, Vollenweider P, Völzke H, Voutilainen A, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Vrijkotte TGM, Wade AN, Wagner A, Waldhör T, Walton J, Wambiya EOA, Bebakar WMW, Mohamud WNW, de Souza Wanderley Júnior R, Wang MD, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang X, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Weber A, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Weghuber D, Wei W, Weres A, Werner B, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams J, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong A, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu J, Wu LJ, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yaacob NA, Yamborisut U, Yan W, Yang L, Yang X, Yang Y, Yardim N, Yaseri M, Yasuharu T, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, You QS, You SL, Younger-Coleman NO, Md Yusof S, Yusoff AF, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zakavi SR, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zapata ME, Zargar AH, Ko Zaw K, Zdrojewski T, Zejglicova K, Vrkic TZ, Zeng Y, Zhang L, Zhang ZY, Zhao D, Zhao MH, Zhao W, Zhen S, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zins M, Zitt E, Zocalo Y, Cisneros JZ, Zuziak M, Ezzati M, Filippi S. Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight. eLife 2021; 10:e60060. [PMID: 33685583 PMCID: PMC7943191 DOI: 10.7554/elife.60060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Nayu Ikeda
- National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition
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- Capital Medical University Beijing An Zhen Hospital
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- University of Copenhagen
- Copenhagen University Hospital
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ali Ahmadi
- Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences
| | | | | | | | | | - Kamel Ajlouni
- National Center for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Genetics
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- World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
| | | | - Parisa Amiri
- Research Center for Social Determinants of Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Joana Araújo
- Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Shina Avi
- Tel-Aviv University
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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- Baqai Institute of Diabetology and Endocrinology
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Judith Benedics
- Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hongsheng Bi
- Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
| | - Yufang Bi
- Shanghai Jiao-Tong University School of Medicine
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- World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe
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- Council for Agricultural Research and Economics
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- The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research
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- Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute
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- The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research
| | | | | | | | - Luc Dauchet
- University of Lille
- Lille University Hospital
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- Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
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- Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
- Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
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- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
- University of Basel
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- World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
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- Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara
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- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
- Paris University
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- Capital Medical University Beijing Tongren Hospital
| | | | - Rajeev Gupta
- Eternal Heart Care Centre and Research Institute
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- Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Yuan He
- National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning
| | - Yuna He
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Ana Henriques
- Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto
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- Institute of Molecular and Clinical Ophthalmology Basel
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- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Joanne Katz
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Roya Kelishadi
- Research Institute for Primordial Prevention of Non-communicable Disease
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- PASs Hirszfeld Institute of Immunology and Experimental Therapy
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- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | - Vera Lanska
- Institute for Clinical and Experimental Medicine
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- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Lijuan Liu
- Capital Medical University Beijing Tongren Hospital
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- National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning
| | | | | | | | | | - Stefania Maggi
- Institute of Neuroscience of the National Research Council
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- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | - Päivi Mäki
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare
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- CIBERCV
- Institut Hospital del Mar d'Investigacions Mèdiques
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- Capital Institute of Pediatrics
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - GK Mini
- Women’s Social and Health Studies Foundation
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- University of Strasbourg
- Strasbourg University Hospital
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- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud
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- Banska Bystrica Regional Authority of Public Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Keiu Nelis
- National Institute for Health Development
| | - Liis Nelis
- National Institute for Health Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Yury P Nikitin
- SB RAS Federal Research Center Institute of Cytology and Genetics
| | - Guang Ning
- Shanghai Jiao-Tong University School of Medicine
| | | | | | - Marianna Noale
- Institute of Neuroscience of the National Research Council
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Eha Nurk
- National Institute for Health Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Kyungwon Oh
- Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | - Claes Ohlsson
- University of Gothenburg
- Sahlgrenska University Hospital
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Domenico Palli
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Francesco Panza
- IRCCS Ente Ospedaliero Specializzato in Gastroenterologia S. de Bellis
| | | | | | - Suyeon Park
- Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | | | - Ionela M Pascanu
- University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Târgu Mures
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Iris Pigeot
- Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Raluca M Pop
- University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Târgu Mures
| | | | - Miquel Porta
- Institut Hospital del Mar d'Investigacions Mèdiques
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Maria Puiu
- Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Manu Raj
- Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences
| | | | | | - Ivo Rakovac
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe
| | | | | | | | | | - Rafel Ramos
- Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ana Rito
- National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Paola Russo
- Institute of Food Sciences of the National Research Council
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Nader Saki
- Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Savvas Savva
- Research and Education Institute of Child Health
| | - Mathilde Savy
- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Aletta E Schutte
- University of New South Wales
- The George Institute for Global Health
| | | | | | | | - Abhijit Sen
- Center for Oral Health Services and Research Mid-Norway
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Alfonso Siani
- Institute of Food Sciences of the National Research Council
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Liam Smeeth
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Igor Spiroski
- Institute of Public Health
- Ss. Cyril and Methodius University
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lela Sturua
- National Center for Disease Control and Public Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lucjan Szponar
- National Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Pierre Traissac
- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | | | - Oanh TH Trinh
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gilad Twig
- Tel-Aviv University
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem
| | | | | | | | | | - Eunice Ugel
- Universidad Centro-Occidental Lisandro Alvarado
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Anette Varbo
- Copenhagen University Hospital
- University of Copenhagen
| | | | | | | | - Tomas Vega
- Consejería de Sanidad Junta de Castilla y León
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lucie Viet
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ningli Wang
- Capital Medical University Beijing Tongren Hospital
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Adelheid Weber
- Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Bogdan Wojtyniak
- National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene
| | | | | | | | | | - Jean Woo
- The Chinese University of Hong Kong
| | | | | | - Jianfeng Wu
- Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
| | | | | | - Haiquan Xu
- Institute of Food and Nutrition Development of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
| | - Liang Xu
- Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology
| | | | | | - Weili Yan
- Children's Hospital of Fudan University
| | | | | | - Yang Yang
- Shanghai Educational Development Co. Ltd
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Yi Zeng
- Peking University
- Duke University
| | | | | | - Dong Zhao
- Capital Medical University Beijing An Zhen Hospital
| | | | - Wenhua Zhao
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | - Shiqi Zhen
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | | | | | - Maigeng Zhou
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | - Dan Zhu
- Inner Mongolia Medical University
| | - Marie Zins
- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
- Paris University
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Rodriguez-Martinez A, Zhou B, Sophiea MK, Bentham J, Paciorek CJ, Iurilli MLC, Carrillo-Larco RM, Bennett JE, Di Cesare M, Taddei C, Bixby H, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Cowan MJ, Savin S, Danaei G, Chirita-Emandi A, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Laxmaiah A, Malekzadeh R, Miranda JJ, Moon JS, Popovic SR, Sørensen TIA, Soric M, Starc G, Zainuddin AA, Gregg EW, Bhutta ZA, Black R, Abarca-Gómez L, Abdeen ZA, Abdrakhmanova S, Abdul Ghaffar S, Abdul Rahim HF, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Abubakar Garba J, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Afsana K, Afzal S, Agdeppa IA, Aghazadeh-Attari J, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmad MH, Ahmad NA, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi N, Ahmed SH, Ahrens W, Aitmurzaeva G, Ajlouni K, Al-Hazzaa HM, Al-Othman AR, Al-Raddadi R, Alarouj M, AlBuhairan F, AlDhukair S, Ali MM, Alkandari A, Alkerwi A, Allin K, Alvarez-Pedrerol M, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amiri P, Amougou N, Amouyel P, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Ängquist L, Anjana RM, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arku RE, Arlappa N, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assah FK, Assunção MCF, Aung MS, Auvinen J, Avdicová M, Azevedo A, Azimi-Nezhad M, Azizi F, Azmin M, Babu BV, Bæksgaard Jørgensen M, Baharudin A, Bahijri S, Baker JL, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Baran J, Barbagallo CM, Barceló A, Barkat A, Barros AJD, Barros MVG, Basit A, Bastos JLD, Bata I, Batieha AM, Batista RL, Battakova Z, Batyrbek A, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Bel-Serrat S, Belavendra A, Ben Romdhane H, Benedics J, Benet M, Bennett JE, Berkinbayev S, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bernotiene G, Bettiol H, Bezerra J, Bhagyalaxmi A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bhutta ZA, Bi H, Bi Y, Bia D, Bika Lele EC, Bikbov MM, Bista B, Bjelica DJ, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Björkelund C, Bloch KV, Blokstra A, Bo S, Bobak M, Boddy LM, Boehm BO, Boeing H, Boggia JG, Bogova E, Boissonnet CP, Bojesen SE, Bonaccio M, Bongard V, Bonilla-Vargas A, Bopp M, Borghs H, Bovet P, Braeckevelt L, Braeckman L, Bragt MCE, Brajkovich I, Branca F, Breckenkamp J, Breda J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Brian GR, Brinduse L, Brophy S, Bruno G, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Bugge A, Buoncristiano M, Burazeri G, Burns C, Cabrera de León A, Cacciottolo J, Cai H, Cama T, Cameron C, Camolas J, Can G, Cândido APC, Cañete F, Capanzana MV, Capková N, Capuano E, Capuano V, Cardol M, Cardoso VC, Carlsson AC, Carmuega E, Carvalho J, Casajús JA, Casanueva FF, Celikcan E, Censi L, Cervantes-Loaiza M, Cesar JA, Chamukuttan S, Chan AW, Chan Q, Chaturvedi HK, Chaturvedi N, Che Abdul Rahim N, Chen CJ, Chen F, Chen H, Chen S, Chen Z, Cheng CY, Cheraghian B, Chetrit A, Chikova-Iscener E, Chiolero A, Chiou ST, Chirita-Emandi A, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Christensen K, Christofaro DG, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Cilia M, Cinteza E, Claessens F, Clarke J, Clays E, Cohen E, Concin H, Confortin SC, Cooper C, Coppinger TC, Corpeleijn E, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Craig CL, Crampin AC, Crujeiras AB, Csilla S, Cucu AM, Cui L, Cureau FV, D'Arrigo G, d'Orsi E, Dacica L, Dal Re Saavedra MÁ, Dallongeville J, Damasceno A, Damsgaard CT, Danaei G, Dankner R, Dantoft TM, Dasgupta P, Dastgiri S, Dauchet L, Davletov K, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, de Oliveira PD, De Ridder D, De Ridder K, de Rooij SR, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Deev AD, DeGennaro VJ, Dehghan A, Delisle H, Delpeuch F, Demarest S, Dennison E, Deren K, Deschamps V, Dhana K, Dhimal M, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dias-da-Costa JS, Díaz-Sánchez ME, Diaz A, Dika Z, Djalalinia S, Djordjic V, Do HTP, Dobson AJ, Donati MB, Donfrancesco C, Donoso SP, Döring A, Dorobantu M, Dorosty AR, Doua K, Drygas W, Duan JL, Duante CA, Duboz P, Duda RB, Duleva V, Dulskiene V, Dumith SC, Dushpanova A, Dzerve V, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eddie R, Eftekhar E, Egbagbe EE, Eggertsen R, Eghtesad S, Eiben G, Ekelund U, El-Khateeb M, El Ati J, Eldemire-Shearer D, Eliasen M, Elliott P, Engle-Stone R, Enguerran M, Erasmus RT, Erbel R, Erem C, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Eslami S, Esmaeili A, Evans A, Faeh D, Fakhretdinova AA, Fall CH, Faramarzi E, Farjam M, Farrugia Sant'Angelo V, Farzadfar F, Fattahi MR, Fawwad A, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernandes RA, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrante D, Ferrao T, Ferrari M, Ferrario MM, Ferreccio C, Ferrer E, Ferrieres J, Figueiró TH, Fijalkowska A, Fink G, Fischer K, Föger B, Foo LH, Forsner M, Fouad HM, Francis DK, Franco MDC, Franco OH, Frikke-Schmidt R, Frontera G, Fuchs FD, Fuchs SC, Fujiati II, Fujita Y, Fumihiko M, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Gafencu M, Galbarczyk A, Galenkamp H, Galeone D, Galfo M, Galvano F, Gao J, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, García-Solano M, Gareta D, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gaya ACA, Gaya AR, Gazzinelli A, Gehring U, Geiger H, Geleijnse JM, Ghanbari A, Ghasemi E, Gheorghe-Fronea OF, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Gironella G, Giwercman A, Gkiouras K, Godos J, Gogen S, Goldsmith RA, Goltzman D, Gómez SF, Gomula A, Goncalves Cordeiro da Silva B, Gonçalves H, Gonzalez-Chica DA, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Leon M, González-Rivas JP, González-Villalpando C, González-Villalpando ME, Gonzalez AR, Gottrand F, Graça AP, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Grajda A, Grammatikopoulou MG, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grøholt EK, Grøntved A, Grosso G, Gruden G, Gu D, Gualdi-Russo E, Guallar-Castillón P, Gualtieri A, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Guimaraes AL, Gulliford MC, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gunter MJ, Guo XH, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gureje O, Gurzkowska B, Gutiérrez-González E, Gutierrez L, Gutzwiller F, Ha S, Hadaegh F, Hadjigeorgiou CA, Haghshenas R, Hakimi H, Halkjær J, Hambleton IR, Hamzeh B, Hange D, Hanif AAM, Hantunen S, Hari Kumar R, Hashemi-Shahri SM, Hassapidou M, Hata J, Haugsgjerd T, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, He Y, Heidinger-Felso R, Heinen M, Hejgaard T, Hendriks ME, Henrique RDS, Henriques A, Hernandez Cadena L, Herrala S, Herrera VM, Herter-Aeberli I, Heshmat R, Hill AG, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Hofman A, Holden Bergh I, Holdsworth M, Homayounfar R, Homs C, Hopman WM, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu Y, Huerta JM, Huhtaniemi IT, Huidumac Petrescu C, Husseini A, Huu CN, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Hyska J, Iacoviello L, Ibarluzea JM, Ibrahim MM, Ibrahim Wong N, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Iotova V, Irazola VE, Ishida T, Islam M, Islam SMS, Iwasaki M, Jackson RT, Jacobs JM, Jaddou HY, Jafar T, James K, Jamil KM, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Janus E, Jarani J, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jelakovic A, Jelakovic B, Jennings G, Jha AK, Jiang CQ, Jimenez RO, Jöckel KH, Joffres M, Johansson M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Joukar F, Jovic DP, Józwiak JJ, Juolevi A, Jurak G, Jurca Simina I, Juresa V, Kaaks R, Kaducu FO, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalmatayeva Z, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kameli Y, Kanala KR, Kannan S, Kapantais E, Karki KB, Katibeh M, Katz J, Katzmarzyk PT, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva GM, Keil U, Keinan Boker L, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Kelleher C, Kemper HCG, Kengne AP, Keramati M, Kerimkulova A, Kersting M, Key T, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khang YH, Khaw KT, Kheiri B, Kheradmand M, Khosravi A, Khouw IMSL, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Killewo J, Kim DW, Kim HC, Kim J, Kindblom JM, Klakk H, Klimek M, Klimont J, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Koirala B, Kolle E, Kolsteren P, König J, Korpelainen R, Korrovits P, Korzycka M, Kos J, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kovacs VA, Kowlessur S, Koziel S, Kratzer W, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Krokstad S, Kromhout D, Krtalic B, Kruger HS, Kubinova R, Kuciene R, Kujala UM, Kujundzic E, Kulaga Z, Kumar RK, Kunešová M, Kurjata P, Kusuma YS, Kuulasmaa K, Kyobutungi C, La QN, Laamiri FZ, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Laid Y, Lam TH, Lambrinou CP, Landais E, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Latt TS, Lauria L, Laxmaiah A, Lazo-Porras M, Le Nguyen Bao K, Le Port A, Le TD, Lee J, Lee J, Lee PH, Lehmann N, Lehtimäki T, Lemogoum D, Levitt NS, Li Y, Liivak M, Lilly CL, Lim WY, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lin X, Lin YT, Lind L, Linneberg A, Lissner L, Litwin M, Liu J, Liu L, Lo WC, Loit HM, Long KQ, Lopes L, Lopes O, Lopez-Garcia E, Lopez T, Lotufo PA, Lozano JE, Lukrafka JL, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lundqvist R, Lunet N, Lunogelo C, Lustigová M, Luszczki E, Ma G, Ma J, Ma X, Machado-Coelho GLL, Machado-Rodrigues AM, Machi S, Macieira LM, Madar AA, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Magnacca S, Magriplis E, Mahasampath G, Maire B, Majer M, Makdisse M, Mäki P, Malekzadeh F, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Mallikharjuna Rao K, Malyutina SK, Maniego LV, Manios Y, Mann JI, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Manzato E, Margozzini P, Markaki A, Markey O, Markidou Ioannidou E, Marques-Vidal P, Marques LP, Marrugat J, Martin-Prevel Y, Martin R, Martorell R, Martos E, Marventano S, Mascarenhas LP, Masoodi SR, Mathiesen EB, Mathur P, Matijasevich A, Matsha TE, Mavrogianni C, Mazur A, Mbanya JCN, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, McKee M, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, McNulty BA, Mediene-Benchekor S, Medzioniene J, Mehdipour P, Mehlig K, Mehrparvar AH, Meirhaeghe A, Meisfjord J, Meisinger C, Menezes AMB, Menon GR, Mensink GBM, Menzano MT, Mereke A, Meshram II, Metspalu A, Mi J, Michaelsen KF, Michels N, Mikkel K, Milkowska K, Miller JC, Minderico CS, Mini GK, Miquel JF, Miranda JJ, Mirjalili MR, Mirkopoulou D, Mirrakhimov E, Mišigoj-Durakovic M, Mistretta A, Mocanu V, Modesti PA, Moghaddam SS, Mohajer B, Mohamed MK, Mohamed SF, Mohammad K, Mohammadi Z, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohan V, Mohanna S, Mohd Yusoff MF, Mohebbi I, Mohebi F, Moitry M, Molbo D, Møllehave LT, Møller NC, Molnár D, Momenan A, Mondo CK, Monroy-Valle M, Monterrubio-Flores E, Monyeki KDK, Moon JS, Moosazadeh M, Moreira LB, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Morin SN, Mortensen EL, Moschonis G, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mota-Pinto A, Mota J, Motlagh ME, Motta J, Moura-dos-Santos MA, Mridha MK, Msyamboza KP, Mu TT, Muc M, Mugoša B, Muiesan ML, Mukhtorova P, Müller-Nurasyid M, Murphy N, Mursu J, Murtagh EM, Musa KI, Music Milanovic S, Musil V, Mustafa N, Nabipour I, Naderimagham S, 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Strufaldi MW, Sturua L, Suárez-Medina R, Suka M, Sun CA, Sundström J, Sung YT, Sunyer J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Swinburn BA, Sy RG, Syddall HE, Sylva RC, Szklo M, Szponar L, Tai ES, Tammesoo ML, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tang X, Tanser F, Tao Y, Tarawneh MR, Tarp J, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Taxová Braunerová R, Taylor A, Taylor J, Tchibindat F, Tebar WR, Tell GS, Tello T, Thankappan KR, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thijs L, Thomas N, Thuesen BH, Tichá L, Timmermans EJ, Tjonneland A, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Topór-Madry R, Torheim LE, Tormo MJ, Tornaritis MJ, Torrent M, Torres-Collado L, Toselli S, Traissac P, Tran TTH, Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tshepo L, Tsigga M, Tsugane S, Tuliakova AM, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Turley ML, Tynelius P, Tzotzas T, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel E, Ukoli FAM, Ulmer H, Unal B, Usupova Z, Uusitalo HMT, Uysal N, Vaitkeviciute J, Valdivia G, Vale S, Valvi D, van Dam RM, Van der Heyden J, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Minh H, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Varbo A, Varela-Moreiras G, Varona-Pérez P, Vasan SK, Vega T, Veidebaum T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Velika B, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Viegi G, Viet L, Villalpando S, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visser M, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vladulescu M, Vlasoff T, Vocanec D, Völzke H, Voutilainen A, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Vrijkotte TGM, Wade AN, Wagner A, Waldhör T, Walton J, Wambiya EOA, Wan Bebakar WM, Wan Mohamud WN, Wanderley Júnior RDS, Wang MD, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang X, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Weber A, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Weghuber D, Wei W, Weres A, Werner B, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams J, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong A, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu J, Wu LJ, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yaacob NA, Yamborisut U, Yan W, Yang L, Yang X, Yang Y, Yardim N, Yaseri M, Yasuharu T, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, You QS, You SL, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusof SM, Yusoff AF, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zakavi SR, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zapata ME, Zargar AH, Zaw KK, Zdrojewski T, Zeljkovic Vrkic T, Zeng Y, Zhang L, Zhang ZY, Zhao D, Zhao MH, Zhao W, Zhen S, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zocalo Y, Zuñiga Cisneros J, Zuziak M, Ezzati M. Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants. Lancet 2020; 396:1511-1524. [PMID: 33160572 PMCID: PMC7658740 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31859-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 171] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/19/2020] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. METHODS For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. FINDINGS We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. INTERPRETATION The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.
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Taddei C, Zhou B, Bixby H, Carrillo-Larco RM, Danaei G, Jackson RT, Farzadfar F, Sophiea MK, Di Cesare M, Iurilli MLC, Martinez AR, Asghari G, Dhana K, Gulayin P, Kakarmath S, Santero M, Voortman T, Riley LM, Cowan MJ, Savin S, Bennett JE, Stevens GA, Paciorek CJ, Aekplakorn W, Cifkova R, Giampaoli S, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Kuulasmaa K, Laxmaiah A, Margozzini P, Mathur P, Nordestgaard BG, Zhao D, Aadahl M, Abarca-Gómez L, Rahim HA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Agdeppa IA, Aghazadeh-Attari J, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahluwalia TS, Ahmad NA, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi N, Ahmed SH, Ahrens W, Ajlouni K, Alarouj M, AlBuhairan F, AlDhukair S, Ali MM, Alkandari A, Alkerwi A, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amouyel P, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Anjana RM, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arku RE, Arlappa N, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assunção MCF, Auvinen J, Avdicová M, Azevedo A, Azizi F, Azmin M, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, 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I, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Iotova V, Irazola VE, Ishida T, Islam M, al-Safi Ismail A, Iwasaki M, Jacobs JM, Jaddou HY, Jafar T, James K, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Janus E, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jelakovic A, Jelakovic B, Jennings G, Jensen GB, Jeong SL, Jha AK, Jiang CQ, Jimenez RO, Jöckel KH, Joffres M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Joukar F, Józwiak J, Juolevi A, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kamaruddin NA, Kamstrup PR, Karki KB, Katz J, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva G, Keil U, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Keramati M, Kerimkulova A, Kersting M, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khateeb M, Kheradmand M, Khosravi A, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Killewo J, Kim HC, Kim J, Kim YY, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Ko S, Kohler HP, Kohler IV, Kolle E, Kolsteren P, König J, Korpelainen R, Korrovits P, Kos J, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kowlessur S, Kratzer W, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Krokstad S, Kromhout D, Kujala UM, Kurjata P, Kyobutungi C, Laamiri FZ, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Laid Y, Lam TH, Lambrinou CP, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Latt TS, Laugsand LE, Lazo-Porras M, Lee J, Lee J, Lehmann N, Lehtimäki T, Levitt NS, Li Y, Lilly CL, Lim WY, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lin X, Lin YT, Lind L, Linneberg A, Lissner L, Liu J, Loit HM, Lopez-Garcia E, Lopez T, Lotufo PA, Lozano JE, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lundqvist R, Lunet N, Ma G, Machado-Coelho GLL, Machado-Rodrigues AM, Machi S, Madar AA, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Magriplis E, Mahasampath G, Maire B, Makdisse M, Malekzadeh F, Malekzadeh R, Rao KM, Manios Y, Mann JI, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Manzato E, Marques-Vidal P, Martorell R, Mascarenhas LP, Mathiesen EB, Matsha TE, Mavrogianni C, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, McNulty BA, Mediene-Benchekor S, Mehdipour P, Mehlig K, Mehrparvar AH, Meirhaeghe A, Meisinger C, Menezes AMB, Menon GR, Merat S, Mereke A, Meshram II, Metcalf P, Meyer HE, Mi J, Michels N, Miller JC, Minderico CS, Mini GK, Miquel JF, Miranda JJ, Mirjalili MR, Mirrakhimov E, Modesti PA, Moghaddam SS, Mohajer B, Mohamed MK, Mohammad K, Mohammadi Z, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohan V, Mohanna S, Yusoff MFM, Mohebbi I, Mohebi F, Moitry M, Møllehave LT, Møller NC, Molnár D, Momenan A, Mondo CK, Monterrubio-Flores E, Moosazadeh M, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Morin SN, Moschonis G, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mota J, Motlagh ME, Motta J, Msyamboza KP, Muiesan ML, Müller-Nurasyid M, Mursu J, Mustafa N, Nabipour I, Naderimagham S, Nagel G, Naidu BM, Najafi F, Nakamura H, Námešná J, Nang EEK, Nangia VB, Nauck M, Neal WA, Nejatizadeh A, Nenko I, Nervi F, Nguyen ND, Nguyen QN, Nieto-Martínez RE, Nihal T, Niiranen TJ, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Noale M, Noboa OA, Noto D, Nsour MA, Nuhoğlu I, O’Neill TW, O’Reilly D, Ochoa-Avilés AM, Oh K, Ohtsuka R, Olafsson Ö, Olié V, Oliveira IO, Omar MA, Onat A, Ong SK, Ordunez P, Ornelas R, Ortiz PJ, Osmond C, Ostojic SM, Ostovar A, Otero JA, Owusu-Dabo E, Paccaud FM, Pahomova E, Pajak A, Palmieri L, Pan WH, Panda-Jonas S, Panza F, Parnell WR, Patel ND, Peer N, Peixoto SV, Peltonen M, Pereira AC, Peters A, Petersmann A, Petkeviciene J, Peykari N, Pham ST, Pichardo RN, Pigeot I, Pilav A, Pilotto L, Piwonska A, Pizarro AN, Plans-Rubió P, Plata S, Pohlabeln H, Porta M, Portegies MLP, Poudyal A, Pourfarzi F, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Price JF, Providencia R, Puder JJ, Puhakka SE, Punab M, Qorbani M, Bao TQ, Radisauskas R, Rahimikazerooni S, Raitakari O, Rao SR, Ramachandran A, Ramos E, Ramos R, Rampal L, Rampal S, Redon J, Reganit PFM, Revilla L, Rezaianzadeh A, Ribeiro R, Richter A, Rigo F, Rinke de Wit TF, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, del Cristo Rodriguez-Perez M, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Roggenbuck U, Rojas-Martinez R, Romaguera D, Romeo EL, Rosengren A, Roy JGR, Rubinstein A, Ruidavets JB, Ruiz-Betancourt BS, Russo P, Rust P, Rutkowski M, Sabanayagam C, Sachdev HS, Sadjadi A, Safarpour AR, Safiri S, Saidi O, Saki N, Salanave B, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Sans S, Santaliestra-Pasías AM, Santos DA, Santos MP, Santos R, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarrafzadegan N, Saum KU, Savva SC, Sawada N, Sbaraini M, Scazufca M, Schaan BD, Schargrodsky H, Scheidt-Nave C, Schienkiewitz A, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schöttker B, Schramm S, Sebert S, Sein AA, Sen A, Sepanlou SG, Servais J, Shakeri R, Shalnova SA, Shamah-Levy T, Sharafkhah M, Sharma SK, Shaw JE, Shayanrad A, Shi Z, Shibuya K, Shimizu-Furusawa H, Shin DW, Shin Y, Shirani M, Shiri R, Shrestha N, Si-Ramlee K, Siani A, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Silva DAS, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöström M, Skaaby T, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, Snijder MB, Söderberg S, Soemantri A, Sofat R, Solfrizzi V, Somi MH, Sonestedt E, Sørensen TIA, Jérome CS, Soumaré A, Sozmen K, Sparrenberger K, Staessen JA, Stathopoulou MG, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stessman J, Stevanović R, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stokwiszewski J, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Suárez-Medina R, Sun CA, Sundström J, 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Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol. Nature 2020; 582:73-77. [PMID: 32494083 PMCID: PMC7332422 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2338-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2019] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
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Taddei C, Jackson R, Zhou B, Bixby H, Danaei G, Di Cesare M, Kuulasmaa K, Hajifathalian K, Bentham J, Bennett JE, Aekplakorn W, Cifkova R, Dallongeville J, DeBacquer D, Giampaoli S, Gudnason V, Khang YH, Laatikainen T, Mann J, Marques-Vidal P, Mensah GA, Müller-Nurasyid M, Ninomiya T, Petkeviciene J, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, Servais J, Söderberg S, Stavreski B, Wilsgaard T, Zdrojewski T, Zhao D, Stevens GA, Savin S, Cowan MJ, Riley LM, Ezzati M, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Ahrens W, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Anderssen SA, Ariansen I, Arveiler D, Aspelund T, Auvinen J, Avdicová M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Barbagallo CM, Bata I, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Bennett JE, Bernotiene G, Bi Y, Bienek A, Björkelund C, Bo S, Boehm BO, Bonaccio M, Bongard V, Borchini R, Borghs H, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Bruno G, Busch MA, Cabrera de León A, Capuano V, Casanueva FF, Casas JP, Caserta CA, Censi L, Chen F, Chen S, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Cho Y, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Claessens F, Clarke J, Clays E, Cooper C, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Crujeiras AB, Cui L, D'Arrigo G, Dallongeville J, Dauchet L, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, De Smedt D, Dennison E, Deschamps V, DiCastelnuovo A, Dobson AJ, Donfrancesco C, Döring A, Drygas W, Du Y, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eggertsen R, Ekelund U, Elosua R, Eriksson JG, Evans A, Faeh D, Felix-Redondo FJ, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrari M, Ferrieres J, Finn JD, Forslund AS, Forsner M, Frontera G, Fujita Y, Gaciong Z, Galvano F, Gao J, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gates L, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Goltzman D, GonzalezGross M, Gottrand F, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grosso G, Gruden G, Gu D, Guallar-Castillón P, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guessous I, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gutzwiller F, Hardy R, Hata J, Haugsgjerd T, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, Herrala S, TapaniHihtaniemi I, Hobbs M, Hopman WM, MaríaHuerta J, Huybrechts I, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ikeda N, Iwasaki M, Jackson R, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jennings G, Jeong SL, QiangJiang C, Joffres M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jóźwiak J, Kajantie EO, Kauhanen J, Keil U, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kersting M, Khang YH, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Kim J, Kim YY, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Ko S, Kolle E, Korpelainen R, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kratzer W, Kriemler S, Krokstad S, Kujala UM, Kurjata P, Kuulasmaa K, Laatikainen T, HingLam T, Lanska V, Lappas G, Laugsand LE, Lee J, Lehtimäki T, Li Y, Lilly CL, Lin X, Lind L, Lissner L, Liu J, Lopez-Garcia E, Lorbeer R, EugenioLozano J, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lundqvist R, Lytsy P, Ma G, Machi S, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Mann J, Manzato E, Marques-Vidal P, Mathiesen EB, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, Meirhaeghe A, Meisinger C, Metcalf P, Mi J, Miller JC, Moreno LA, Morin S, Mossakowska M, Muiesan ML, Müller-Nurasyid M, Mursu J, Nakamura H, Námešná J, Nauck M, MariaNavarrete-Muñoz E, Neal WA, Nenko I, Niiranen TJ, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Noale M, Norie S, Noto D, O'Neill T, O'Reilly D, Oh K, Olafsson Ö, MichelPaccaud F, Pajak A, Palmieri L, Panza F, Parnell WR, Peltonen M, Peters A, Petersmann A, Petkeviciene J, Pigeot I, Pilotto L, Piwonska A, Plans-Rubió P, Porta M, Price JF, Puder JJ, Puhakka SE, Radisauskas R, Raitakari O, Ramos R, Redon J, Rigo F, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, Rodriguez-Perez M, Romaguera D, Ronkainen K, Rosengren A, Roy JGR, Ruidavets JB, Rutkowski M, Salanave B, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sans S, Saramies JL, Saum KU, Scheidt-Nave C, Schienkiewitz A, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schöttker B, Sebert S, Sen A, Servais J, Shaw JE, Shibuya K, WookShin D, Shiri R, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöström M, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Söderberg S, Solfrizzi V, Sonestedt E, Soumare A, Staessen JA, Stathopoulou MG, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stokwiszewski J, Sundström J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Tamosiunas A, JooTan E, Taylor A, Tell G, Thijs L, Tolonen H, Topór-Madry R, JoséTormo M, Torrent M, Tsugane S, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Tzourio C, Uusitalo HMT, Van Herck K, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vatten L, Vega T, Veronesi G, Vioque J, Virtanen J, Visvikis-Siest S, Vollenweider P, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Wagner A, Wagner A, Wang MD, Wang Q, XingWang Y, Wannamethee SG, Wei W, Whincup PH, Wiecek A, Willeit J, Willeit P, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong A, Woodward M, GiwercmanWu A, Wu FC, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yan W, Yang X, Ye X, Yoshihara A, Zambon S, Zdrojewski T, Zhao D, Zhao W. National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries. Int J Epidemiol 2020; 49:173-192. [PMID: 31321439 PMCID: PMC7245049 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyz099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/24/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. METHODS We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. RESULTS Since ∼1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at ∼0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ∼0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ∼26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. CONCLUSIONS HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.
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Abstract
TYPE OF STUDY Descriptive study of trends in the drug therapy for acute myocardial infarction. SETTING Population-based register of acute coronary events compiled for the years 1984 to 1990 in the course of the Perth MONICA project. CASES 5294 cases meeting clinical criteria for acute myocardial infarction. RESULTS Striking changes were seen in the use of aspirin before admission to hospital (from 4% to 18%). During the stay in hospital the use of beta-blockers increased steadily from 52% to 76%, while the use of aspirin increased 3.5-fold from 25% to 88% and the use of streptokinase increased 13.5-fold from 2.4% to 32.4%. The proportion of patients prescribed beta-blockers on discharge from hospital increased from 46% to 65% and that for aspirin rose from 16% to 83%. There were also major relative increases in the use of lipid-lowering agents and declines in the use of antiarrhythmic drugs. CONCLUSION These trends in the pharmacological management of myocardial infarction mirror the emerging evidence from clinical trials, although the increases in the use of certain types of drugs antedated publication of the results of major randomised studies. The changes in therapy would partly explain observed improvements in case fatality and may have contributed to the decline in coronary mortality observed in the Perth community.
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Affiliation(s)
- P L Thompson
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, WA
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine the medical care received by patients following discharge from hospital after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). SETTING AND DESIGN Community-based cross-sectional survey. PATIENTS 2836 consecutive patients aged 25-64 years living in the Perth Statistical Division who were admitted to hospital with AMI during 1984-1988. After one reminder the response rate was 71%. RESULTS Half of all respondents were in full-time employment at the time of their AMI. At follow-up this had fallen to a third. Over 80% of patients visited a cardiologist after AMI, with half remaining under consultant care to the time of survey. However, one in five patients reported no follow-up care at the time of survey. Seventy-three per cent of patients reported undergoing at least one exercise stress test after AMI, with 61% undergoing angiography, 16% angioplasty and 24% coronary bypass surgery. Large proportions of the patients accurately reported being prescribed beta-blockers and antiplatelet agents. The pattern of prescribing at discharge corresponded closely with the use of cardioactive agents at the time of survey and with drugs reported to have been taken continuously since discharge to the time of survey. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that follow-up care after AMI is both comprehensive and widespread. Such care may have contributed significantly to the overall decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- A O Czarn
- Department of Public Health, University of Western Australia, Queen Elizabeth II Medical Centre, Nedlands
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Gnatiuc L, Herrington WG, Halsey J, Tuomilehto J, Fang X, Kim HC, De Bacquer D, Dobson AJ, Criqui MH, Jacobs DR, Leon DA, Peters SAE, Ueshima H, Sherliker P, Peto R, Collins R, Huxley RR, Emberson JR, Woodward M, Lewington S, Aoki N, Arima H, Arnesen E, Aromaa A, Assmann G, Bachman DL, Baigent C, Bartholomew H, Benetos A, Bengtsson C, Bennett D, Björkelund C, Blackburn H, Bonaa K, Boyle E, Broadhurst R, Carstensen J, Chambless L, Chen Z, Chew SK, Clarke R, Cox C, Curb JD, D'Agostino R, Date C, Davey Smith G, De Backer G, Dhaliwal SS, Duan XF, Ducimetiere P, Duffy S, Eliassen H, Elwood P, Empana J, Garcia-Palmieri MH, Gazes P, Giles GG, Gillis C, Goldbourt U, Gu DF, Guasch-Ferre M, Guize L, Haheim L, Hart C, Hashimoto S, Hashimoto T, Heng D, Hjermann I, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Hole D, Holme I, Horibe H, Hozawa A, Hu F, Hughes K, Iida M, Imai K, Imai Y, Iso H, Jackson R, Jamrozik K, Jee SH, Jensen G, Jiang CQ, Johansen NB, Jorgensen T, Jousilahti P, Kagaya M, Keil J, Keller J, Kim IS, Kita Y, Kitamura A, Kiyohara Y, Knekt P, Knuiman M, Kornitzer M, Kromhout D, Kronmal R, Lam TH, Law M, Lee J, Leren P, Levy D, Li YH, Lissner L, Luepker R, Luszcz M, MacMahon S, Maegawa H, Marmot M, Matsutani Y, Meade T, Morris J, Morris R, Murayama T, Naito Y, Nakachi K, Nakamura M, Nakayama T, Neaton J, Nietert PJ, Nishimoto Y, Norton R, Nozaki A, Ohkubo T, Okayama A, Pan WH, Puska P, Qizilbash N, Reunanen A, Rimm E, Rodgers A, Saitoh S, Sakata K, Sato S, Schnohr P, Schulte H, Selmer R, Sharp D, Shifu X, Shimamoto K, Shipley M, Silbershatz H, Sorlie P, Sritara P, Suh I, Sutherland SE, Sweetnam P, Tamakoshi A, Tanaka H, Thomsen T, Tominaga S, Tomita M, Törnberg S, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Tverdal A, Ueshima H, Vartiainen E, Wald N, Wannamethee SG, Welborn TA, Whincup P, Whitlock G, Willett W, Woo J, Wu ZL, Yao SX, Yarnell J, Yokoyama T, Yoshiike N, Zhang XH. Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2018; 6:538-546. [PMID: 29752194 PMCID: PMC6008496 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(18)30079-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2017] [Revised: 02/20/2018] [Accepted: 02/26/2018] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men. METHODS In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes. RESULTS Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97-2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71-3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2·60, 2·30-2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2·01, 1·85-2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15-7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03-0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05-0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1·08% (0·84-1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77-1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes. INTERPRETATION Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health).
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Zhou B, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, Bixby H, Danaei G, Hajifathalian K, Taddei C, Carrillo-Larco RM, Djalalinia S, Khatibzadeh S, Lugero C, Peykari N, Zhang WZ, Bennett J, Bilano V, Stevens GA, Cowan MJ, Riley LM, Chen Z, Hambleton IR, Jackson RT, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Laxmaiah A, Liu J, Malekzadeh R, Neuhauser HK, Sorić M, Starc G, Sundström J, Woodward M, Ezzati M, Abarca-Gómez L, Abdeen ZA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Afsana K, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmad NA, Ahmadvand A, Ahrens W, Ajlouni K, Akhtaeva N, Al-Raddadi R, Ali MM, Ali O, Alkerwi A, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Ängquist LH, Anjana RM, Ansong D, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arlappa N, Arveiler D, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assah FK, Assunção MCF, Avdicová M, Azevedo A, Azizi F, Babu BV, Bahijri S, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Barbagallo CM, Barceló A, Barkat A, Barros AJD, Barros MV, Bata I, Batieha AM, Batyrbek A, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Romdhane HB, Benet M, Benson LS, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bernotiene G, Bettiol H, Bhagyalaxmi A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bi Y, Bikbov M, Bista B, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Björkelund C, Blokstra A, Bo S, Bobak M, Boeing H, Boggia JG, Boissonnet CP, Bongard V, Borchini R, Bovet P, Braeckman L, Brajkovich I, Branca F, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Bruno G, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Bugge A, Burns C, Bursztyn M, de León AC, Cacciottolo J, Cai H, Cameron C, Can G, Cândido APC, Capuano V, Cardoso VC, Carlsson AC, Carvalho MJ, Casanueva FF, Casas JP, Caserta CA, Chamukuttan S, Chan AW, Chan Q, Chaturvedi HK, Chaturvedi N, Chen CJ, Chen F, Chen H, Chen S, Chen Z, Cheng CY, Dekkaki IC, Chetrit A, Chiolero A, Chiou ST, Chirita-Emandi A, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Cho Y, Christofaro DG, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Cinteza E, Claessens F, Clays E, Concin H, Cooper C, Cooper R, Coppinger TC, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Craig CL, Crujeiras AB, Cruz JJ, D'Arrigo G, d'Orsi E, Dallongeville J, Damasceno A, Danaei G, Dankner R, Dantoft TM, Dauchet L, Davletov K, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, de Oliveira PD, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Dehghan A, Delisle H, Deschamps V, Dhana K, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dias-da-Costa JS, Diaz A, Dickerson TT, Djalalinia S, Do HTP, Donfrancesco C, Donoso SP, Döring A, Dorobantu M, Doua K, Drygas W, Dulskiene V, Džakula A, Dzerve V, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eggertsen R, Ekelund U, El Ati J, Elliott P, Elosua R, Erasmus RT, Erem C, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Evans A, Faeh D, Fall CH, Farzadfar F, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernandes RA, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrante D, Ferrari M, Ferreccio C, Ferrieres J, Finn JD, Fischer K, Föger B, Foo LH, Forslund AS, Forsner M, Fouad HM, Francis DK, do Carmo Franco M, Franco OH, Frontera G, Fuchs FD, Fuchs SC, Fujita Y, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Galvano F, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, Gareta D, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gates L, Geleijnse JM, Ghasemian A, Ghimire A, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Goldsmith RA, Gonçalves H, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Rivas JP, Gorbea MB, Gottrand F, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Grajda A, Grammatikopoulou MG, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grøntved A, Grosso G, Gruden G, Grujic V, Gu D, Guan OP, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Guimaraes AL, Gulliford MC, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gunter M, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gureje O, Gurzkowska B, Gutierrez L, Gutzwiller F, Hadaegh F, Halkjær J, Hambleton IR, Hardy R, Hari Kumar R, Hata J, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, Elisabeth M, Henriques A, Cadena LH, Herrala S, Heshmat R, Hihtaniemi IT, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Hofman A, Dinc GH, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Than Htike MM, Hu Y, Huerta JM, Huisman M, Husseini AS, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ibrahim MM, Wong NI, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Irazola VE, Islam M, al-Safi Ismail A, Ivkovic V, Iwasaki M, Jackson RT, Jacobs JM, Jaddou H, Jafar T, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Jasienska G, Jelaković A, Jelaković B, Jennings G, Jeong SL, Jiang CQ, Joffres M, Johansson M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Jóźwiak J, Juolevi A, Jurak G, Jureša V, Kaaks R, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kamaruddin NA, Karki KB, Kasaeian A, Katz J, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva G, Keil U, Boker LK, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Kemper HCG, Kengne AP, Kerimkulova A, Kersting M, Key T, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khang YH, Khateeb M, Khaw KT, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Killewo J, Kim J, Kim YY, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Kolle E, Kolsteren P, Korrovits P, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kowlessur S, Koziel S, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Krokstad S, Kromhout D, Kruger HS, Kubinova R, Kuciene R, Kuh D, Kujala UM, Kulaga Z, Krishna Kumar R, Kurjata P, Kusuma YS, Kuulasmaa K, Kyobutungi C, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Lam TH, Landrove O, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Laugsand LE, Laxmaiah A, Le Nguyen Bao K, Le TD, Leclercq C, Lee J, Lee J, Lehtimäki T, León-Muñoz LM, Levitt NS, Li Y, Lilly CL, Lim WY, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lin X, Lind L, Linneberg A, Lissner L, Litwin M, Liu J, Lorbeer R, Lotufo PA, Lozano JE, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lunet N, Lytsy P, Ma G, Ma J, Machado-Coelho GLL, Machi S, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Magriplis E, Majer M, Makdisse M, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Mallikharjuna Rao K, Malyutina S, Manios Y, Mann JI, Manzato E, Margozzini P, Marques-Vidal P, Marques LP, Marrugat J, Martorell R, Mathiesen EB, Matijasevich A, Matsha TE, Mbanya JCN, Mc Donald Posso AJ, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, McNulty BA, Mediene-Benchekor S, Medzioniene J, Meirhaeghe A, Meisinger C, Menezes AMB, Menon GR, Meshram II, Metspalu A, Meyer HE, Mi J, Mikkel K, Miller JC, Minderico CS, Francisco J, Miranda JJ, Mirrakhimov E, Mišigoj-Durakovic M, Modesti PA, Mohamed MK, Mohammad K, Mohammadifard N, Mohan V, Mohanna S, Mohd Yusoff MF, Møllehave LT, Møller NC, Molnár D, Momenan A, Mondo CK, Monyeki KDK, Moon JS, Moreira LB, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Moschonis G, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mota J, Esmaeel Motlagh M, Motta J, Msyamboza KP, Mu TT, Muiesan ML, Müller-Nurasyid M, Murphy N, Mursu J, Musil V, Nabipour I, Nagel G, Naidu BM, Nakamura H, Námešná J, Nang EEK, Nangia VB, Narake S, Nauck M, Navarrete-Muñoz EM, Ndiaye NC, Neal WA, Nenko I, Neovius M, Nervi F, Neuhauser HK, Nguyen CT, Nguyen ND, Nguyen QN, Nguyen QV, Nieto-Martínez RE, Niiranen TJ, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Nishtar S, Noale M, Noboa OA, Noorbala AA, Norat T, Noto D, Al Nsour M, O'Reilly D, Oda E, Oehlers G, Oh K, Ohara K, Olinto MTA, Oliveira IO, Omar MA, Onat A, Ong SK, Ono LM, Ordunez P, Ornelas R, Osmond C, Ostojic SM, Ostovar A, Otero JA, Overvad K, Owusu-Dabo E, Paccaud FM, Padez C, Pahomova E, Pajak A, Palli D, Palmieri L, Pan WH, Panda-Jonas S, Panza F, Papandreou D, Park SW, Parnell WR, Parsaeian M, Patel ND, Pecin I, Pednekar MS, Peer N, Peeters PH, Peixoto SV, Peltonen M, Pereira AC, Peters A, Petersmann A, Petkeviciene J, Peykari N, Pham ST, Pigeot I, Pikhart H, Pilav A, Pilotto L, Pitakaka F, Piwonska A, Plans-Rubió P, Polašek O, Porta M, Portegies MLP, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Prashant M, Price JF, Puder JJ, Puiu M, Punab M, Qasrawi RF, Qorbani M, Bao TQ, Radic I, Radisauskas R, Rahman M, Raitakari O, Raj M, Ramachandra Rao S, Ramachandran A, Ramos E, Rampal L, Rampal S, Rangel Reina DA, Redon J, Reganit PFM, Ribeiro R, Riboli E, Rigo F, Rinke de Wit TF, Ritti-Dias RM, Robinson SM, Robitaille C, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, del Cristo Rodriguez-Perez M, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Rojas-Martinez R, Romaguera D, Ronkainen K, Rosengren A, Roy JGR, Rubinstein A, Sandra Ruiz-Betancourt B, Rutkowski M, Sabanayagam C, Sachdev HS, Saidi O, Sakarya S, Salanave B, Salazar Martinez E, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Sans S, Santos DA, Santos IS, Nunes dos Santos R, Santos R, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarganas G, Sarrafzadegan N, Saum KU, Savva S, Scazufca M, Schargrodsky H, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schöttker B, Schultsz C, Schutte AE, Sein AA, Sen A, Senbanjo IO, Sepanlou SG, Sharma SK, Shaw JE, Shibuya K, Shin DW, Shin Y, Si-Ramlee K, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Santos Silva DA, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöström M, Skovbjerg S, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, Smith MC, Snijder MB, So HK, Sobngwi E, Söderberg S, Solfrizzi V, Sonestedt E, Song Y, Sørensen TIA, Soric M, Jérome CS, Soumare A, Staessen JA, Starc G, Stathopoulou MG, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stergiou GS, Stessman J, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stocks T, Stokwiszewski J, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Sun CA, Sundström J, Sung YT, Suriyawongpaisal P, Sy RG, Shyong Tai E, Tammesoo ML, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tang X, Tanser F, Tao Y, Tarawneh MR, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Tautu OF, Taylor A, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thijs L, Thuesen BH, Tjonneland A, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Topór-Madry R, Tormo MJ, Torrent M, Traissac P, Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tshepo L, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Turley ML, Tynelius P, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel EE, Ulmer H, Uusitalo HMT, Valdivia G, Valvi D, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Minh H, van Rossem L, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vatten L, Vega T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Veronesi G, Monique Verschuren WM, Verstraeten R, Victora CG, Viet L, Viikari-Juntura E, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vlasoff T, Vollenweider P, Voutilainen S, Wade AN, Wagner A, Walton J, Wan Bebakar WM, Wan Mohamud WN, Wanderley RS, Wang MD, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wijga AH, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams EA, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong JYY, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Giwercman Wu A, Wu FC, Wu S, Xu H, Yan W, Yang X, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yoshihara A, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusoff AF, Zainuddin AA, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zdrojewski T, Zeng Y, Zhao D, Zhao W, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zhu D, Zhussupov B, Zimmermann E, Cisneros JZ. Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants. Int J Epidemiol 2018; 47:872-883i. [PMID: 29579276 PMCID: PMC6005056 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyy016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Revised: 01/16/2018] [Accepted: 01/24/2018] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. METHODS We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. RESULTS In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. CONCLUSIONS Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.
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Vollenweider P, Völzke H, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Wade AN, Wagner A, Waldhör T, Walton J, Bebakar WMW, Mohamud WNW, Wanderley RS, Wang MD, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Weber A, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wijga AH, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong JYY, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu J, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yamborisut U, Yan W, Yang X, Yardim N, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yngve A, Yoshihara A, You QS, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusoff F, Yusoff MFM, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zdrojewski T, Zeng Y, Zhao D, Zhao W, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zhussupov B, Zimmermann E, Cisneros JZ, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, Bilano V, Bixby H, Zhou B, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Taddei C, Hajifathalian K, Lu Y, Savin S, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Chirita-Emandi A, Hayes AJ, Katz J, Kelishadi R, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Laxmaiah A, Li Y, Ma J, Miranda JJ, Mostafa A, Neovius M, Padez C, Rampal L, Zhu A, Bennett JE, Danaei G, Bhutta ZA, Ezzati M. Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet 2017; 390:2627-2642. [PMID: 29029897 PMCID: PMC5735219 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32129-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3623] [Impact Index Per Article: 517.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2017] [Revised: 07/12/2017] [Accepted: 07/19/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. METHODS We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). FINDINGS Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese. INTERPRETATION The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.
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Jamrozik E, Hyde Z, Alfonso H, Flicker L, Almeida O, Yeap B, Norman P, Hankey G, Jamrozik K. Validity of self-reported versus hospital-coded diagnosis of stroke: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study. Cerebrovasc Dis 2014; 37:256-62. [PMID: 24686404 DOI: 10.1159/000358583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2013] [Accepted: 01/13/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population-based studies, as well as clinicians, often rely on self-report and hospital records to obtain a history of stroke. This study aimed to compare the validity of the diagnosis of stroke by self-report and by hospital coding according to their cross-sectional association with prevalent vascular risk factors, and longitudinal association with recurrent stroke and major cardiovascular outcomes in a large cohort of older Australian men. METHODS Between 1996 and 1999, 11,745 older men were surveyed for a self-reported history of stroke as part of the Health in Men Study (HIMS). Previous hospitalization for stroke was obtained with consent from linked medical records via the Western Australian Data Linkage System (WADLS). Subjects were followed by WADLS until December 31, 2010, for hospitalization for stroke, cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was hospitalisation for stroke during follow-up. Secondary outcomes included incident vascular events and composite vascular endpoints. RESULTS At baseline, a history of stroke was reported by 903 men (7.7%), previous hospitalisation for stroke was recorded in 717 (6.1%), both self-report and hospitalisation in 467 (4.0%), and no history of stroke in 10,696 men (91.1%). Prevalent cardiovascular disease and peripheral arterial disease were more common among men with previous hospitalisation for stroke than a history of self-reported stroke (p < 0.001). In longitudinal analyses, incident aortic aneurysm was also more common among men with baseline history of hospitalization for stroke (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.71, 95% CI 1.12-2.60) than among men with self-reported stroke (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.56-1.36) compared to men with no history of stroke. With regard to the primary outcome, the rate of hospitalisation for stroke during follow-up was significantly higher among men with self-reported stroke (HR 2.44, 95% CI 2.03-2.94), hospital-coded stroke (adjusted HR 3.02, 2.42-3.78) and both self-reported and hospital-coded stroke (adjusted HR 3.33, 2.82-3.92) compared to participants with no previous stroke. Time to recurrent stroke was similar among different methods of initial stroke diagnosis (p = 0.067). CONCLUSIONS Self-reported stroke and hospital-coded stroke have a similar prognostic value for predicting the risk of recurrent stroke. This supports the use of these ways of assessing a history of stroke for the clinical purposes of secondary prevention and for further epidemiological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Euzebiusz Jamrozik
- Western Australian Centre for Healthy Ageing (WACHA), Centre for Medical Research, WA Institute for Medical Research, Perth, W.A., Australia
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Hoon-Leahy CE, Newbury J, Kitson A, Whitford D, Wilson A, Karnon J, Baker J, Jamrozik K, Beilby J. The LINKIN Health Census process: design and implementation. BMC Health Serv Res 2012; 12:321. [PMID: 22985220 PMCID: PMC3546420 DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-12-321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2011] [Accepted: 08/23/2012] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper describes the first phase of the LINKIN Health Study, which aims to evaluate health system functioning within a rural population. Locally relevant data on the health status and service usage of this population, including non-users and users, health service providers traditionally omitted from health services research, and multiple socio-economic indicators, was collected using a self-complete health census. Household response was 75% (N = 4425). Response was greater when face-to-face contact was made at delivery compared to when questionnaires were left in the letterbox (89% vs 64%), falling to 26% when no face-to-face contact was made at either delivery or collection.
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Tait RJ, Hulse GK, Waterreus A, Flicker L, Lautenschlager NT, Jamrozik K, Almeida OP. Two-Year Outcomes From a Cessation of Smoking Intervention in Older Adults. J Smok Cessat 2012. [DOI: 10.1375/jsc.3.2.101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
AbstractThis study evaluated a cessation of smoking program for older (≥ 65 years) smokers. We recruited 215 community-dwelling smokers who selected either an intervention (n = 165) (brief intervention, telephone support, access to nicotine replacement therapy [NRT]) or ongoing smoking (continuing smokers) (n = 50). Primary outcomes at 12 and 24 months were (a) total abstinence and (b) cessation for the previous 30+ days, all validated via expired carbon monoxide (ECO). We interviewed 183 (85%) participants at 12 months and 165 (77%) at 24 months. Total abstinence was reported by 29 (18%) and 21 (13%) of the intervention group and none of the continuing smokers at 12 and 24 months. At 12 months, a greater prevalence of 30+ day cessation was observed for the intervention (24.2%) than the continuing smokers (4.0%): by 24 months this difference was 23.6% versus 12.0%. Those totally abstinent for 24 months predominantly used NRT (81%). Of the 30+ day quitters at 24 months, 74% of the intervention group used NRT and 100% of the continuing smokers used ‘cold turkey’. Cessation programs can be successfully delivered to older smokers, with outcomes comparable to the general population. NRT is commonly used by successful quitters, but ‘cold turkey’ can also be successful.
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Jamrozik K, McLaughlin D, McCaul K, Almeida OP, Wong KY, Vagenas D, Dobson A. Women who smoke like men die like men who smoke: findings from two Australian cohort studies. Tob Control 2011; 20:258-65. [DOI: 10.1136/tc.2010.039172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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McLaughlin D, Adams J, Almeida OP, Brown W, Byles J, Dobson A, Flicker L, Hankey GJ, Jamrozik K, McCaul KA, Norman PE, Pachana NA. Are the national guidelines for health behaviour appropriate for older Australians? Evidence from the Men, Women and Ageing project. Australas J Ageing 2010; 30 Suppl 2:13-6. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1741-6612.2010.00498.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Golledge J, van Bochxmeer F, Jamrozik K. Association Between Serum Lipoproteins and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm. J Vasc Surg 2010. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2010.08.065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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Almeida OP, Alfonso H, Jamrozik K, Hankey GJ, Flicker L. Aspirin use, depression, and cognitive impairment in later life: the health in men study. J Am Geriatr Soc 2010; 58:990-2. [PMID: 20722830 DOI: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2010.02827.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Burgess S, Thompson SG, Burgess S, Thompson SG, Andrews G, Samani NJ, Hall A, Whincup P, Morris R, Lawlor DA, Davey Smith G, Timpson N, Ebrahim S, Ben-Shlomo Y, Davey Smith G, Timpson N, Brown M, Ricketts S, Sandhu M, Reiner A, Psaty B, Lange L, Cushman M, Hung J, Thompson P, Beilby J, Warrington N, Palmer LJ, Nordestgaard BG, Tybjaerg-Hansen A, Zacho J, Wu C, Lowe G, Tzoulaki I, Kumari M, Sandhu M, Yamamoto JF, Chiodini B, Franzosi M, Hankey GJ, Jamrozik K, Palmer L, Rimm E, Pai J, Psaty B, Heckbert S, Bis J, Anand S, Engert J, Collins R, Clarke R, Melander O, Berglund G, Ladenvall P, Johansson L, Jansson JH, Hallmans G, Hingorani A, Humphries S, Rimm E, Manson J, Pai J, Watkins H, Clarke R, Hopewell J, Saleheen D, Frossard R, Danesh J, Sattar N, Robertson M, Shepherd J, Schaefer E, Hofman A, Witteman JCM, Kardys I, Ben-Shlomo Y, Davey Smith G, Timpson N, de Faire U, Bennet A, Sattar N, Ford I, Packard C, Kumari M, Manson J, Lawlor DA, Davey Smith G, Anand S, Collins R, Casas JP, Danesh J, Davey Smith G, Franzosi M, Hingorani A, Lawlor DA, Manson J, Nordestgaard BG, Samani NJ, Sandhu M, Smeeth L, Wensley F, Anand S, Bowden J, Burgess S, Casas JP, Di Angelantonio E, Engert J, Gao P, Shah T, Smeeth L, Thompson SG, Verzilli C, Walker M, Whittaker J, Hingorani A, Danesh J. Bayesian methods for meta-analysis of causal relationships estimated using genetic instrumental variables. Stat Med 2010; 29:1298-311. [PMID: 20209660 DOI: 10.1002/sim.3843] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Genetic markers can be used as instrumental variables, in an analogous way to randomization in a clinical trial, to estimate the causal relationship between a phenotype and an outcome variable. Our purpose is to extend the existing methods for such Mendelian randomization studies to the context of multiple genetic markers measured in multiple studies, based on the analysis of individual participant data. First, for a single genetic marker in one study, we show that the usual ratio of coefficients approach can be reformulated as a regression with heterogeneous error in the explanatory variable. This can be implemented using a Bayesian approach, which is next extended to include multiple genetic markers. We then propose a hierarchical model for undertaking a meta-analysis of multiple studies, in which it is not necessary that the same genetic markers are measured in each study. This provides an overall estimate of the causal relationship between the phenotype and the outcome, and an assessment of its heterogeneity across studies. As an example, we estimate the causal relationship of blood concentrations of C-reactive protein on fibrinogen levels using data from 11 studies. These methods provide a flexible framework for efficient estimation of causal relationships derived from multiple studies. Issues discussed include weak instrument bias, analysis of binary outcome data such as disease risk, missing genetic data, and the use of haplotypes.
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Lakshmanan R, Hyde Z, Jamrozik K, Hankey GJ, Norman PE. Population-based observational study of claudication in older men: the Health in Men Study. Med J Aust 2010; 192:641-5. [PMID: 20528717 DOI: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2010.tb03663.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2009] [Accepted: 02/11/2010] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the prevalence of and risk factors for claudication and its association with subsequent cardiovascular events. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Observational cohort study of 12 203 Western Australian men aged 65 years and over, recruited from 1996 to 1999, and followed up from 2001 to 2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Prevalence of claudication and incidence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD); risk factors for claudication and its association with subsequent cardiovascular events. RESULTS The prevalence of claudication was 5.3% (638 of 11 970 men). At follow-up, after exclusion of 148 men with claudication at baseline and 76 with missing data at follow-up, the crude average annual incidence of new PAD (claudication or procedure for PAD) was 0.85% (95% CI, 0.72%-0.96%). The risk factors for prevalent claudication and incident PAD were similar, with age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes and history of cardiovascular disease dominating. Of the men with claudication at baseline, nearly half (47.5%; 303 of 638) were not taking aspirin. At follow-up, 42.5% (82 of 193) of the men with incident PAD were not taking aspirin. Claudication at baseline was associated with twice the risk of cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.52-2.64). There was a J-shaped relationship between aortic diameter, and both prevalent claudication and subsequent cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS Among older men, claudication is prevalent and is associated with factors that can still be modified in older age, including smoking, exercise and diet. Relatively few men with claudication or at risk of PAD use aspirin. Claudication is a significant predictor of cardiovascular outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rahul Lakshmanan
- University of Western Australia, Fremantle Hospital, Fremantle, WA, Australia
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Abstract
AIMS To compare the effect of alcohol intake on 10-year mortality for men and women over the age of 65 years. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Two prospective cohorts of community-dwelling men aged 65-79 years at baseline in 1996 (n = 11 727) and women aged 70-75 years in 1996 (n = 12 432). MEASUREMENTS Alcohol was assessed according to frequency of use (number of days alcohol was consumed per week) and quantity consumed per day. Cox proportional hazards models were compared for men and women for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. FINDINGS Compared with older adults who did not consume alcohol every week, the risk of all-cause mortality was reduced in men reporting up to four standard drinks per day and in women who consumed one or two drinks per day. One or two alcohol-free days per week reduced this risk further in men, but not in women. Similar results were observed for deaths due to cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS In people over the age of 65 years, alcohol intake of four standard drinks per day for men and two standard drinks per day for women was associated with lower mortality risk. For men, the risk was reduced further if accompanied with 1 or 2 alcohol-free days per week.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kieran A McCaul
- Western Australian Centre for Health and Ageing, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
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Parr CL, Batty GD, Lam TH, Barzi F, Fang X, Ho SC, Jee SH, Ansary-Moghaddam A, Jamrozik K, Ueshima H, Woodward M, Huxley RR. Body-mass index and cancer mortality in the Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration: pooled analyses of 424,519 participants. Lancet Oncol 2010; 11:741-52. [PMID: 20594911 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(10)70141-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 176] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Excess bodyweight is an established risk factor for several types of cancer, but there are sparse data from Asian populations, where the proportion of overweight and obese individuals is increasing rapidly and adiposity can be substantially greater for the same body-mass index (BMI) compared with people from Western populations. METHODS We examined associations of adult BMI with cancer mortality (overall and for 20 cancer sites) in geographic populations from Asia and from Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), within the Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration, by use of Cox regression analysis. Pooled data from 39 cohorts (recruitment 1961-99, median follow-up 4 years) were analysed for 424,519 participants (77% Asian; 41% female; mean recruitment age 48 years) with individual data on BMI. FINDINGS After excluding those with follow-up of less than 3 years, 4872 cancer deaths occurred in 401,215 participants. Hazard ratios for cancer sites with increased mortality risk in obese (BMI > or = 30 kg/m(2)) compared with normal weight participants (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)) were: 1.21 (95% CI 1.09-1.36) for all-cause cancer (excluding lung and upper aerodigestive tract), 1.50 (1.13-1.99) for colon, 1.68 (1.06-2.67) for rectum, 1.63 (1.13-2.35) for breast in women 60 years or older, 2.62 (1.57-4.37) for ovary, 4.21 (1.89-9.39) for cervix, 1.45 (0.97-2.19) for prostate, and 1.66 (1.03-2.68) for leukaemia (all after left censoring at 3 years). The increased risk associated with a 5-unit increase in BMI for those with BMI of 18.5 kg/m(2) or higher was 1.09 (95% CI 1.04-1.14) for all cancers (excluding lung and upper aerodigestive tract). There was little evidence of regional differences in relative risk of cancer with higher BMI, apart from cancers of the oropharynx and larynx, where the association was inverse in ANZ and absent in Asia. INTERPRETATION Overweight and obese individuals in populations across the Asia-Pacific region have a significantly increased risk of mortality from cancer. Strategies to prevent individuals from becoming overweight and obese in Asia are needed to reduce the burden of cancer that is expected if the obesity epidemic continues. FUNDING National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Health Research Council of New Zealand, and Pfizer Inc.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine L Parr
- Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
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Golledge J, van Bockxmeer F, Jamrozik K, McCann M, Norman PE. Association between serum lipoproteins and abdominal aortic aneurysm. Am J Cardiol 2010; 105:1480-4. [PMID: 20451699 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2009.12.076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2009] [Revised: 12/20/2009] [Accepted: 12/20/2009] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
The importance of dyslipidemia in the etiology of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is poorly defined, in part because previous association analyses have often not considered the use of current lipid-modifying medications. Medications targeted at altering the concentrations of circulating lipids have an established role in occlusive atherosclerosis but are of unknown value in the primary prevention of AAA. We examined the association between fasting serum levels of triglycerides low- and high-density lipoprotein and the presence of an AAA in a cohort of 3,327 men aged 65 to 83 years. The analyses were adjusted for established risk factors of AAA and the prescription of lipid-modifying agents using multiple logistic regression analysis. Of the 3,327 men, 1,043 (31%) were receiving lipid-modifying therapy at the fasting lipid measurement. The lipid-modifying therapy was statins in most cases (n = 1,023). The serum high-density lipoprotein concentrations were lower in patients with AAAs. The serum high-density lipoprotein concentration was independently associated with a reduced risk of having an AAA in men not receiving current lipid-modifying therapy (odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.56 to 0.93 per 0.4-mM increase) and in the total cohort (odds ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.91 per 0.4-mM increase, adjusted for lipid-modifying therapy). The concentrations of low-density lipoprotein and triglycerides were not associated with the presence of AAAs. In conclusion, high-density lipoprotein appeared to be the most important lipid in predicting the risk of AAA development, with potential value as a therapeutic target. Current cardiovascular strategies aimed at lowering low-density lipoprotein might not have any effect on the prevention of AAAs.
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Jackson CA, Hutchison A, Dennis MS, Wardlaw JM, Lindgren A, Norrving B, Anderson CS, Hankey GJ, Jamrozik K, Appelros P, Sudlow CLM. Differing risk factor profiles of ischemic stroke subtypes: evidence for a distinct lacunar arteriopathy? Stroke 2010; 41:624-9. [PMID: 20150553 DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.109.558809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 95] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Differences in risk factor profiles between lacunar and other ischemic stroke subtypes may provide evidence for a distinct lacunar arteriopathy, but existing studies have limitations. We overcame these by pooling individual data on 2875 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke from 5 collaborating prospective stroke registers that used similar, unbiased methods to define risk factors and classify stroke subtypes. METHODS We compared risk factors between lacunar and nonlacunar ischemic strokes, altering the comparison groups in sensitivity analyses, and incorporated these data into a meta-analysis of published studies. RESULTS Unadjusted and adjusted analyses gave similar results. We found a lower prevalence of cardioembolic source (adjusted odds ratio, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.24 to 0.46), ipsilateral carotid stenosis (odds ratio, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.30), and ischemic heart disease (odds ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.97) in lacunar compared with nonlacunar patients but no difference for hypertension, diabetes, or any other risk factor studied. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses and largely confirmed in our meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS Hypertension and diabetes appear equally common in lacunar and nonlacunar ischemic stroke, but lacunar stroke is less likely to be caused by embolism from the heart or proximal arteries, and the lower prevalence of ischemic heart disease in lacunar stroke provides additional support for a nonatherosclerotic arteriopathy causing many lacunar ischemic strokes. Our findings have implications for how clinicians classify ischemic stroke subtypes and highlight the need for additional research into the specific causes of and treatments for lacunar stroke.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caroline A Jackson
- Division of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Yeap BB, Chubb SAP, Ho KKY, Setoh JWS, McCaul KA, Norman PE, Jamrozik K, Flicker L. IGF1 and its binding proteins 3 and 1 are differentially associated with metabolic syndrome in older men. Eur J Endocrinol 2010; 162:249-57. [PMID: 19917654 DOI: 10.1530/eje-09-0852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Circulating IGF1 declines with age, and reduced circulating IGF1 is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in some but not all studies. The relationship between IGF-binding proteins 3 and 1 (IGFBP3 and IGFBP1) with risk of cardiovascular disease remains unclear. We sought to examine associations between IGF1, IGFBP3 and IGFBP1 with metabolic syndrome in older men. DESIGN Cross-sectional analysis of 3980 community-dwelling men aged >or=70 years. Methods Morning plasma levels of IGF1, IGFBP3 and IGFBP1 were assayed. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria. RESULTS For IGF1 and IGFBP3, there was a U-shaped relationship, with middle quintiles possessing the lowest odds ratios (OR) for metabolic syndrome (reference Q1, Q3 IGF1: OR 0.74, 95% confidence intervals 0.57-0.96, Q3 IGFBP3: OR 0.67, 0.51-0.87). Increasing IGFBP1 was associated with reduced risk of metabolic syndrome with a dose-response gradient (reference Q1, OR for Q2 to Q5 IGFBP1: 0.56, 0.33, 0.22 and 0.12 respectively, P<0.001). IGF1 was associated with two, IGFBP1 with four and IGFBP3 with all five components of the metabolic syndrome. The ratio of IGF1/IGFBP3 was not associated with metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS In older men, both lower and higher IGF1 and IGFBP3 levels may be metabolically unfavourable. IGFBP1, as a marker of insulin sensitivity, is relevant in the assessment of metabolic syndrome, while the IGF1/IGFBP3 ratio is less informative. Longitudinal follow-up of this cohort would be needed to determine whether these distributions of IGF1, IGFBP3 and IGFBP1 predict incidence of cardiovascular events during male ageing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bu B Yeap
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
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Hyde Z, Flicker L, Almeida OP, McCaul KA, Jamrozik K, Hankey GJ, Chubb SP, Yeap BB. Higher Luteinizing Hormone is Associated with Poor Memory Recall: The Health in Men Study. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010; 19:943-51. [DOI: 10.3233/jad-2010-1342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Zoë Hyde
- Western Australian Centre for Health and Ageing, Centre for Medical Research, Western Australian Institute for Medical Research, Australia
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Australia
| | - Leon Flicker
- Western Australian Centre for Health and Ageing, Centre for Medical Research, Western Australian Institute for Medical Research, Australia
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Australia
| | - Osvaldo P. Almeida
- Western Australian Centre for Health and Ageing, Centre for Medical Research, Western Australian Institute for Medical Research, Australia
- School of Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences, University of Western Australia
- Department of Psychiatry, Royal Perth Hospital, Australia
| | - Kieran A. McCaul
- Western Australian Centre for Health and Ageing, Centre for Medical Research, Western Australian Institute for Medical Research, Australia
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Australia
| | - Konrad Jamrozik
- School of Population Health and Clinical Practice, University of Adelaide, Australia
| | - Graeme J. Hankey
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Australia
- Stroke Unit, Royal Perth Hospital, Australia
| | - S.A. Paul Chubb
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Australia
- PathWest, Department of Biochemistry, Fremantle Hospital, Australia
| | - Bu B. Yeap
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Australia
- Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Fremantle Hospital, Australia
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Flicker L, McCaul KA, Hankey GJ, Jamrozik K, Brown WJ, Byles JE, Almeida OP. Body Mass Index and Survival in Men and Women Aged 70 to 75. J Am Geriatr Soc 2010; 58:234-41. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2009.02677.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 167] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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McGregor AH, Doré CJ, Morris TP, Morris S, Jamrozik K. Function after spinal treatment, exercise and rehabilitation (FASTER): improving the functional outcome of spinal surgery. BMC Musculoskelet Disord 2010; 11:17. [PMID: 20102625 PMCID: PMC2823667 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2474-11-17] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2010] [Accepted: 01/26/2010] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The life-time incidence of low back pain is high and diagnoses of spinal stenosis and disc prolapse are increasing. Consequently, there is a steady rise in surgical interventions for these conditions. Current evidence suggests that while the success of surgery is incomplete, it is superior to conservative interventions. A recent survey indicates that there are large differences in the type and intensity of rehabilitation, if any, provided after spinal surgery as well as in the restrictions and advice given to patients in the post-operative period. This trial will test the hypothesis that functional outcome following two common spinal operations can be improved by a programme of post-operative rehabilitation that combines professional support and advice with graded active exercise and/or an educational booklet based on evidence-based messages and advice. Methods/Design The study design is a multi-centre, factorial, randomised controlled trial with patients stratified by surgeon and operative procedure. The trial will compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a rehabilitation programme and an education booklet for the postoperative management of patients undergoing discectomy or lateral nerve root decompression, each compared with "usual care"using a 2 × 2 factorial design. The trial will create 4 sub-groups; rehabilitation-only, booklet-only, rehabilitation-plus-booklet, and usual care only. The trial aims to recruit 344 patients, which equates to 86 patients in each of the four sub-groups. All patients will be assessed for functional ability (through the Oswestry Disability Index - a disease specific functional questionnaire), pain (using visual analogue scales), and satisfaction pre-operatively and then at 6 weeks, 3, 6 and 9 months and 1 year post-operatively. This will be complemented by a formal analysis of cost-effectiveness. Discussion This trial will determine whether the outcome of spinal surgery can be enhanced by either a post-operative rehabilitation programme or an evidence-based advice booklet or a combination of the two and as such will contribute to our knowledge on how to manage spinal surgery patients in the post-operative period. Trial Registration Current controlled trials ISRCTN46782945 UK CRN ID: 2670
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Affiliation(s)
- A H McGregor
- Surgery & Cancer, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Charing Cross Hospital Campus, London W6 8RP, UK.
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Chew KK, Finn J, Stuckey B, Gibson N, Sanfilippo F, Bremner A, Thompson P, Hobbs M, Jamrozik K. Erectile dysfunction as a predictor for subsequent atherosclerotic cardiovascular events: findings from a linked-data study. J Sex Med 2009; 7:192-202. [PMID: 19912508 DOI: 10.1111/j.1743-6109.2009.01576.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 97] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In spite of the mounting interest in the nexus between erectile dysfunction (ED) and cardiovascular (CV) diseases, there is little published information on the role of ED as a predictor for subsequent CV events. AIM This study aimed to investigate the role of ED as a predictor for atherosclerotic CV events subsequent to the manifestation of ED. Method. The investigation involved the retrospective study of data on a cohort of men with ED linked to hospital morbidity data and death registrations. By using the linked data, the incidence rates of atherosclerotic CV events subsequent to the manifestation of ED were estimated in men with ED and no atherosclerotic CV disease reported prior to the manifestation of ED. The risk of subsequent atherosclerotic CV events in men with ED was assessed by comparing these incidence rates with those in the general male population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Standardized incidence rate ratio (SIRR), comparing the incidence of atherosclerotic CV events subsequent to the manifestation of ED in a cohort of 1,660 men with ED to the incidence in the general male population. RESULTS On the basis of hospital admissions and death registrations, men with ED had a statistically significantly higher incidence of atherosclerotic CV events (SIRR 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.9, 2.4). There were significantly increased incidence rate ratios in all age groups younger than 70 years, with a statistically highly significant downward trend with increase of age (P < 0.0001) across these age groups. Younger age at first manifestation of ED, cigarette smoking, presence of comorbidities and socioeconomic disadvantage were all associated with higher hazard ratios for subsequent atherosclerotic CV events. CONCLUSIONS The findings show that ED is not only significantly associated with but is also strongly predictive of subsequent atherosclerotic CV events. This is even more striking when ED presents at a younger age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kew-Kim Chew
- Keogh Institute for Medical Research, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia.
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Batty GD, Barzi F, Huxley R, Chang CY, Jee SH, Jamrozik K, Kim HC, Fang X, Lam TH, Woodward M. Obesity and liver cancer mortality in Asia: The Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. Cancer Epidemiol 2009; 33:469-72. [PMID: 19900847 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2009.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2009] [Revised: 09/23/2009] [Accepted: 09/30/2009] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
While obesity is associated with liver cancer in studies from western societies, the paucity of data from Asia limits insights into its aetiological role in this population. We examined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and liver cancer mortality using data from the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. In 309,203 Asian study members, 4 years of follow-up gave rise to 11,135 deaths from all causes, 420 of which were ascribed to liver cancer. BMI, whether categorised according to current guidelines for Asian groups or World Health Organisation recommendations, was not associated with liver cancer in any of our analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- G David Batty
- Medical Research Council Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, Scotland, UK.
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Batty GD, Barzi F, Woodward M, Jamrozik K, Woo J, Kim HC, Ueshima H, Huxley RR. Adult height and cancer mortality in Asia: the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. Ann Oncol 2009; 21:646-654. [PMID: 19889610 DOI: 10.1093/annonc/mdp363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The observation that taller people experience an increased risk of selected cancers is largely restricted to Caucasian cohorts. These associations may plausibly differ in Asian populations. For the first time, we make direct comparison in the same analyses of the associations between height and a series of malignancies in Australasian (Caucasian) and Asian populations. METHODS Analyses were based on the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration of 506 648 study participants (408 381 Asia, 98 267 Australasia) drawn from 38 population-based cohort studies. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relationship between height and cancer rates. RESULTS A total of 3 272 600 person-years of follow-up gave rise to 7497 cancer deaths (4415 in Asia; 3082 in Australasia). After multiple adjustments and left censoring, taller individuals experienced increased rates of carcinoma of the intestine (men and women); all cancers, liver, lung, breast, 'other' malignancies (all women); and cancers of the prostate and bladder (men). No consistent regional (Asia versus Australasia) or sex differences were observed. CONCLUSIONS In the present study, taller men and women had an elevated risk of selected malignancies. These associations did not differ appreciably between Asian and Caucasian populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- G D Batty
- Medical Research Council Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK; The George Institute for International Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
| | - F Barzi
- The George Institute for International Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - M Woodward
- The George Institute for International Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - K Jamrozik
- School of Population Health and Clinical Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - J Woo
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, The People's Republic of China
| | - H C Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - H Ueshima
- Department of Health Science, Shiga University of Medical Science, Shiga, Japan
| | - R R Huxley
- The George Institute for International Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Yeap BB, Chubb SAP, Hyde Z, Jamrozik K, Hankey GJ, Flicker L, Norman PE. Lower serum testosterone is independently associated with insulin resistance in non-diabetic older men: the Health In Men Study. Eur J Endocrinol 2009; 161:591-8. [PMID: 19661128 DOI: 10.1530/eje-09-0348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Insulin resistance is associated with metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes, representing a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. This relationship may be modulated to some extent by age-related changes in sex hormone status. We examined whether lower testosterone or sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) levels in older men are associated with insulin resistance independently of measures of central obesity. DESIGN Cross-sectional analysis of 2470 community-dwelling non-diabetic men aged > or = 70 years. METHODS Age, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were measured. Early morning sera were assayed for total testosterone, SHBG, LH and insulin levels. Free testosterone was calculated using mass action equations, and insulin resistance was assessed using a homeostatic model (HOMA2-IR). RESULTS Total testosterone, free testosterone and SHBG declined progressively across increasing quintiles of HOMA2-IR (all P<0.001) and correlated inversely with log HOMA2-IR (r=-0.27, -0.14 and -0.24 respectively, all P<0.001). After adjusting for age, BMI, waist circumference, high-density lipoprotein and triglyceride levels, total testosterone was independently associated with log HOMA2-IR (beta=0.05, P<0.001), while SHBG was not. Serum total testosterone <8 nmol/l was associated with HOMA2-IR in the highest quintile (odds ratio (OR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-2.73) as was total testosterone > or = 8 and <15 nmol/l (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.63). CONCLUSIONS In older men, lower total testosterone is associated with insulin resistance independently of measures of central obesity. This association is seen with testosterone levels in the low to normal range. Further studies are needed to evaluate interventions that raise testosterone levels in men with reduced insulin sensitivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bu B Yeap
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
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Parekh S, King D, Owen N, Jamrozik K. Spousal concordance and reliability of the 'Prudence Score' as a summary of diet and lifestyle. Aust N Z J Public Health 2009; 33:320-4. [PMID: 19689591 DOI: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00402.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This paper describes a composite 'Prudence Score' summarising self-reported behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases. If proved robust, the 'Prudence score' might be used widely to encourage large numbers of individuals to adopt and maintain simple, healthy changes in their lifestyle. METHODS We calculated the 'Prudence Score' based on responses collected in late 2006 to a postal questionnaire sent to 225 adult patients aged 25 to 75 years identified from the records of two general medical practices in Brisbane, Australia. Participants completed the behavioural, dietary and lifestyle items in relation to their spouse as well as themselves. The spouse or partner of each addressee completed their own copy of the study questionnaire. RESULTS Kappa scores for spousal concordance with probands' reports (n = 45 pairs) on diet-related items varied between 0.35 (for vegetable intake) to 0.77 (for usual type of milk consumed). Spousal concordance values for other behaviours were 0.67 (physical activity), 0.82 (alcohol intake) and 1.0 (smoking habits). Kappa scores for test-retest reliability (n = 53) varied between 0.47 (vegetable intake) and 0.98 (smoking habits). CONCLUSION The veracity of self-reported data is a challenge for studies of behavioural change. Our results indicate moderate to substantial agreement from life partners regarding individuals' self-reports for most of the behavioural risk items included in the 'Prudence Score'. This increases confidence that key aspects of diet and lifestyle can be assessed by self-report. IMPLICATIONS The 'Prudence Score' potentially has wide application as a simple and robust tool for health promotion programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sanjoti Parekh
- School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Australia.
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Sitas F, O’Connell DL, Jamrozik K, Lopez AD. Smoking questions on the Australian death notification form: adopting international best practice? Med J Aust 2009; 191:166-8. [DOI: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2009.tb02730.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2009] [Accepted: 05/31/2009] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Konrad Jamrozik
- School of Population Health and Clinical Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA
| | - Alan D Lopez
- School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD
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Yeap BB, Hyde Z, Almeida OP, Norman PE, Chubb SAP, Jamrozik K, Flicker L, Hankey GJ. Lower testosterone levels predict incident stroke and transient ischemic attack in older men. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2009; 94:2353-9. [PMID: 19351733 DOI: 10.1210/jc.2008-2416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 180] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
CONTEXT Lower circulating testosterone concentrations are associated with metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, carotid intima-media thickness, and aortic and lower limb arterial disease in men. However, it is unclear whether lower testosterone levels predict major cardiovascular events. OBJECTIVE We examined whether lower serum testosterone was an independently significant risk factor for symptomatic cerebrovascular events in older men. DESIGN This was a prospective observational study with median follow-up of 3.5 yr. SETTING Community-dwelling, stroke-free older men were studied. PARTICIPANTS A total of 3443 men at least 70 yr of age participated in the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Baseline serum total testosterone, SHBG, and LH were assayed. Free testosterone was calculated using mass action equations. Incident stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) was recorded. RESULTS A first stroke or TIA occurred in 119 men (3.5%). Total and free testosterone concentrations in the lowest quartiles (<11.7 nmol/liter and <222 pmol/liter) were associated with reduced event-free survival (P = 0.014 and P = 0.01, respectively). After adjustment including age, waist-hip ratio, waist circumference, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and medical comorbidity, lower total testosterone predicted increased incidence of stroke or TIA (hazard ratio = 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.99). Lower free testosterone was also associated (hazard ratio = 1.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.48), whereas SHBG and LH were not independently associated with incident stroke or TIA. CONCLUSIONS In older men, lower total testosterone levels predict increased incidence of stroke or TIA after adjusting for conventional risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Men with low-normal testosterone levels had increased risk. Further studies are warranted to determine whether interventions that raise circulating testosterone levels might prevent cerebrovascular disease in men.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bu B Yeap
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
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Abstract
INTRODUCTION We report the findings pertinent to the ageing and elderly participants of a population-based study of erectile dysfunction (ED). METHOD We examined the sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported morbidities and responses to the 5-item International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) of participants aged > or = 65 years and > or = 80 years. RESULTS Most (73%) participants were married or had partners. Among the participants aged > or = 65 years, the prevalence of ED (IIEF-5 scores <22) was 67% and of severe ED (IIEF-5 scores <8) 48%. About 32% were sexually active, and 11% had regular sexual intercourse. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was reported in 37% and diabetes mellitus (DM) in 13%, with odds of ED at 3.91 and 4.68, respectively. Among those aged > or = 80 years, the prevalence of ED was 68% and of severe ED 57%. About 12% were sexually active, and 3% had regular sexual intercourse. CVD was reported in 44% and DM in 11%, with corresponding odds of ED at 2.55 and 2.90. CONCLUSIONS Most ageing and elderly men are in a relationship and many are sexually active. ED is prevalent and severe. Morbidities are common and significantly associated with ED, impairing the sex lives of affected men.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kew-Kim Chew
- Keogh Institute for Medical Research, Queen Elizabeth II Medical Centre, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia.
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Almeida OP, Norman PE, Allcock R, van Bockxmeer F, Hankey GJ, Jamrozik K, Flicker L. Polymorphisms of the CRP gene inhibit inflammatory response and increase susceptibility to depression: the Health in Men Study. Int J Epidemiol 2009; 38:1049-59. [PMID: 19433520 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyp199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Depression has been associated with chronic changes in the serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) in observational studies, but it is unclear if this association is causal or is due to confounding and bias. Genetic studies are less subject to this type of error and offer an opportunity to investigate if CRP is causally linked to depression, particularly because known polymorphisms of the CRP gene have been associated with high- and low-basal serum concentrations of CRP [single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs1130864 and rs1205, respectively]. The aim of this study is to determine if polymorphisms of SNPs rs1130864 and rs1205 are associated with prevalent depression. METHODS We completed a cross-sectional study of a community sample of 3700 men aged > or = 70 years, and used the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) to assess depressive symptoms. A GDS-15 score 7 or more indicates the presence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical morbidity was assessed with the physical component summary score (PCS) of the SF-36 Health Survey. We collected fasting blood samples to measure high sensitivity CRP and to extract DNA for the genotyping of SNPs rs1130864 and rs1205 of the CRP gene. RESULTS One hundred and eighty-two men were depressed (4.9%). The odds of depression increased by 2% (95% CI = 1-4%) for every unit (mg/l) increase of CRP and nearly doubled for men with CRP > or = 3 mg/l vs <1 mg/l [odds ratio (OR) = 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.27-2.98]. However, the association between high CRP (> or = 3 mg/l) and depression was no longer significant after the analyses were adjusted for smoking, age, body mass index (BMI) and PCS. Men with the CT and TT genotypes of rs1130864 had 1.36 (95% CI = 1.13-1.63) and 2.31 (95% CI = 1.65-3.24) greater odds of CRP > or = 3 mg/l than CC carriers, but there was no association between this polymorphism and the presence of prevalent depression. The G > A polymorphism of SNP rs1205 was associated with 24% (95% CI = 16-32%) lower concentration of CRP compared with other genotypes. Men with the rs1205 AA genotype had 1.66 (95% CI = 1.07-2.57) and 1.67 (95% CI = 1.08-2.58) greater odds of having clinically significant depression than participants with the GA and GG genotypes, respectively. CONCLUSION Our study shows that clinically significant depressive symptoms in later life are unlikely to be caused by an increase in the serum concentration of CRP. Instead, we found that the risk of depression was greater amongst people who carry the rs1205 G > A genetic polymorphism of the CRP gene, which was associated with approximately 20% lower serum concentration of CRP compared with other genotypes. This suggests that CRP may be a compensatory response to external insults that predispose to depression, and that an increase in the concentration of CRP might be adaptive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Osvaldo P Almeida
- Western Australian Centre for Health & Ageing, Perth, WA, Australia.
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Beaglehole R, Dobson A, Hobbs M, Jackson R, Jamrozik K, Alexander H, Stewart A. Comparison of event rates among three MONICA centres. Acta Med Scand Suppl 2009; 728:53-9. [PMID: 3202032 DOI: 10.1111/j.0954-6820.1988.tb05553.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
Data from three MONICA centres in Auckland (New Zealand) and Newcastle and Perth (Australia) are used to explore some of the issues involved in comparing event rates and case fatality among MONICA centres. Auckland and Newcastle follow the "hot pursuit" method of identifying and interviewing patients while they are still in hospital. Perth follows the "cold pursuit" method, in which patients are identified by search of computerized hospital records after discharge and all data are abstracted retrospectively from case notes. Fatal cases are identified by the same method in the three centres. The distribution of events by MONICA diagnostic classification varied among centres, with Perth having the highest proportion of definite myocardial infarction events and the lowest proportion of possible myocardial infarction events. These differences appear to be due to the different methods of event ascertainment and data collection, and to variations in post mortem rates between centres. For comparisons among these three centres, the categories of non-fatal definite myocardial infarction and of all coronary heart disease deaths (that is those in the MONICA categories fatal definite myocardial infarction, fatal possible myocardial infarction, and fatal cases with insufficient data) appear to be the most useful.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Beaglehole
- Department of Community Health, School of Medicine, University of Auckland, New Zealand
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Najafi F, Jamrozik K, Dobson AJ. Understanding the ‘epidemic of heart failure’: a systematic review of trends in determinants of heart failure. Eur J Heart Fail 2009; 11:472-9. [DOI: 10.1093/eurjhf/hfp029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Farid Najafi
- Kermanshah Health Research Center (KHRC); Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences; Kermanshah Iran
| | - Konrad Jamrozik
- School of Population Health and Clinical Practice; University of Adelaide; Adelaide Australia
| | - Annette J. Dobson
- School of Population Health; University of Queensland; Queensland Australia
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Lee CMY, Barzi F, Woodward M, Batty GD, Giles GG, Wong JW, Jamrozik K, Lam TH, Ueshima H, Kim HC, Gu DF, Schooling M, Huxley RR. Adult height and the risks of cardiovascular disease and major causes of death in the Asia-Pacific region: 21,000 deaths in 510,000 men and women. Int J Epidemiol 2009; 38:1060-71. [PMID: 19270305 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyp150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Caucasian populations, adult height is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and positively related to some cancers. However, there are few data from Asian populations and from women. We sought to determine the sex- and region-specific associations between height and cardiovascular outcomes, and deaths due to cancer, respiratory and injury in populations from the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS Thirty-nine studies from the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration database were included. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the associations between height and pre-specified outcomes. RESULTS A total of 510,800 participants with 21,623 deaths were included. Amongst men, inverse linear associations were observed between height and coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD, injury and total mortality. The hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals, (CI)] for a 1-SD (= 6 cm) increment in height ranged from 0.85 (0.80-0.91) for injury to 0.97 (0.95-0.98) for total mortality. Similar trends were found between height and CHD, haemorrhagic stroke and CVD in women. A positive linear association was observed between height and cancer mortality. For each standard deviation greater height, the risk of cancer was increased by 5% (2-8%) and 9% (5-14%) in men and women, respectively. No regional difference was observed between Asian and Australasian cohorts. Adjusting for markers of education did not alter the results. CONCLUSIONS The opposing relationships of height with CVD and cancer suggest that care is required in setting national policies on childhood nutrition lest they have unintended consequences on the incidence of major non-communicable diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Crystal Man Ying Lee
- The George Institute for International Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
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Yeap BB, Almeida OP, Hyde Z, Norman PE, Chubb SAP, Jamrozik K, Hankey GJ, Flicker L. Healthier lifestyle predicts higher circulating testosterone in older men: the Health In Men Study. Clin Endocrinol (Oxf) 2009; 70:455-63. [PMID: 18691270 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2265.2008.03372.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Circulating testosterone declines during male ageing, and low testosterone may predispose to ill health. We sought to determine whether greater participation in healthy behaviours predicted reduced risk of subsequent lower circulating testosterone in older men. DESIGN Cross-sectional analysis of a population-based follow-up study. PARTICIPANTS A total of 3453 men aged 65-83 years. MEASUREMENTS Lifestyle score, a tally of eight prudent health-related behaviours, was determined during 1996-99. Early morning sera collected in 2001-04 were assayed for total testosterone, SHBG and LH. Free testosterone was calculated using mass action equations. RESULTS Mean (+/- SD) time between collection of lifestyle data and blood sampling was 5.7 +/- 0.9 years. Lifestyle score correlated with subsequent total testosterone (r = 0.06, P < 0.001) and SHBG (r = 0.07, P < 0.001), but not free testosterone (r = 0.03, P = 0.08) or LH (r = -0.03, P = 0.12). In multivariate analyses, higher lifestyle scores (4 and above) predicted reduced risk of total testosterone and SHBG in the lowest quartile of values. For the highest category (>or= 7), odds ratio (95% CI) for total testosterone and SHBG in the lowest quartile were 0.37 (0.18-0.77) and 0.26 (0.13-0.54), respectively. Lower lifestyle scores including and excluding body mass index predicted higher risk of total testosterone and SHBG in the lowest quartiles. CONCLUSIONS In men > 65 years old, higher lifestyle score reflecting greater engagement in healthy behaviours predicts higher subsequent total testosterone and SHBG levels. This relationship appears cumulative and may reflect interaction between lifestyle and insulin sensitivity. Successfully promoting healthy behaviours in older men could ameliorate the age-related decline in circulating testosterone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bu B Yeap
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Fremantle Hospital, Fremantle, Australia.
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Hayatbakhsh MR, Najman JM, Jamrozik K, Mamun AA, O'Callaghan MJ, Williams GM. Childhood sexual abuse and cannabis use in early adulthood: findings from an Australian birth cohort study. Arch Sex Behav 2009; 38:135-42. [PMID: 17665301 DOI: 10.1007/s10508-007-9172-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2006] [Revised: 10/26/2006] [Accepted: 11/19/2006] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) is associated with a wide range of health problems later in life. The impact of CSA on young adults' use of cannabis remains under-studied. We examined the extent to which exposure to CSA was associated with increased rates of use of cannabis in early adulthood in a birth cohort of 3,285 Australian children followed-up to the age of 21 years, when retrospective reports of CSA were obtained from sample participants along with information on their use of cannabis at 21 years. Young adult men and women who reported experiencing CSA had significantly higher rates of frequent use of cannabis in early adulthood, defined as use of cannabis at least "every few days." In multivariate analyses, men who reported a history of CSA had an odds ratio (OR) of 2.1 (95% CI = 1.1-3.9) for frequent use of cannabis at the age of 21 years. For women, there was an OR of 3.9 (95% CI = 2.4-6.3). Family and individual factors measured earlier in the study did not confound these associations. The findings suggest that children experiencing CSA have a substantially greater risk of use of cannabis and, in particular, its frequent use in early adulthood. Further research is required to explore factors that explain the pathway linking CSA and use of cannabis in early adulthood.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad R Hayatbakhsh
- Queensland Alcohol and Drug Research and Education Centre, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston Road, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia.
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Briffa T, Hickling S, Knuiman M, Hobbs M, Hung J, Sanfilippo FM, Jamrozik K, Thompson PL. Long term survival after evidence based treatment of acute myocardial infarction and revascularisation: follow-up of population based Perth MONICA cohort, 1984-2005. BMJ 2009; 338:b36. [PMID: 19171564 PMCID: PMC2769031 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.b36] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine trends in long term survival in patients alive 28 days after myocardial infarction and the impact of evidence based medical treatments and coronary revascularisation during or near the event. DESIGN Population based cohort with 12 year follow-up. SETTING Perth, Australia. PARTICIPANTS 4451 consecutive patients with a definite acute myocardial infarction according to the World Health Organization MONICA (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) criteria admitted to hospital during 1984-7, 1988-90, and 1991-3. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All cause mortality identified from official mortality records and the hospital morbidity data, with death from cardiovascular disease as a secondary end point. RESULTS In the 1991-3 cohort, 28 day survivors of acute myocardial infarction had a 7.6% absolute event reduction (95% confidence interval 4% to 11%) or a 28% lower relative risk reduction (16% to 38%), unadjusted for risk of death, over 12 years after the incident admission compared with the 1984-7 cohort, similar to the survival of the 1988-90 cohort. The improved survival for the 1991-3 cohort persisted after adjustment for demographic factors, coronary risk factors, severity of disease, and event complications with an adjusted relative risk reduction of 26% (14% to 37%), but this was not apparent after further adjustment for medical treatments in hospital and coronary revascularisation procedures within 12 months of the incident myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION The improving trends in 12 year survival after a definite acute myocardial infarction are associated with progressive use of evidence based treatments during the initial admission to hospital and in the 12 months after the event. These changes in the management of acute myocardial infarction are probably contributing to the continuing decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom Briffa
- School of Population Health M431, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009.
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Abstract
INTRODUCTION Alcohol consumption is a contentious social topic and is often assumed to have deleterious effects on sexual performance. There is a lack of consensus on whether alcohol consumption may in fact be beneficial to erectile function. AIM We examined the data from a population-based cross-sectional study of men's health to assess the association between usual alcohol consumption and erectile dysfunction (ED). METHOD Reply-paid questionnaires were posted to a randomly selected age-stratified male population sample obtained from the Western Australian (WA) Electoral Roll. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The survey questionnaire included sociodemographic details, self-reported clinical information, and drinking habits. The 5-item International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) was used to assess erectile function. RESULTS Most (87%) participants were current alcohol drinkers, with binge drinking, as defined by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), reported by 20% of drinkers. Compared with never-drinkers, the age-adjusted odds of ED were lower among current, weekend, and binge drinkers and higher among ex-drinkers. Among current drinkers, the odds were lowest for consumption within the NHMRC guidelines of between 1 and 20 standard drinks a week. On further adjustment for cardiovascular disease (CVD) or for cigarette smoking, age-adjusted odds of ED were reduced by 25-30% among alcohol drinkers. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest a modest negative association between alcohol consumption and ED and confounding of the association by CVD and cigarette smoking. The Western Australia Men's Health Study certainly provides no justification for advising men with ED whose drinking habits are consistent with NHMRC guidelines that they should cease or reduce their consumption of alcohol.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kew-Kim Chew
- Keogh Institute for Medical Research, Queen Elizabeth II Medical Centre, Nedlands, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
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Chew KK, Bremner A, Stuckey B, Earle C, Jamrozik K. Is the Relationship Between Cigarette Smoking and Male Erectile Dysfunction Independent of Cardiovascular Disease? Findings from a Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study. J Sex Med 2009; 6:222-31. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1743-6109.2008.00971.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Barzi F, Huxley R, Jamrozik K, Lam TH, Ueshima H, Gu D, Kim HC, Woodward M. Association of smoking and smoking cessation with major causes of mortality in the Asia Pacific Region: the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. Tob Control 2008; 17:166-72. [PMID: 18522967 DOI: 10.1136/tc.2007.023457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although the dangers of smoking, and the benefits of quitting, are well established and understood in the West, smoking remains popular among Asian men. We investigated the associations between smoking (including ex-smoking) and major causes of mortality in Asian men and women, and compared with Australians and New Zealanders (ANZ). METHODS An overview of 34 cohort studies in the Asia Pacific region involving 512 676 individuals (81% from Asia), followed up for a median of 6.7 years (20 804 deaths). RESULTS Mortality rates for cause-specific and all causes of mortality were systematically higher for current compared with never smokers. Hazard ratios (HR) for overall and cause-specific mortality comparing current-smokers with never smokers, ex- smokers with current-smokers and comparing numbers of cigarettes smoked per day, were higher for ANZ than Asia (p<0.001). For overall mortality, the HR (95% CI) comparing current-smoking with not was 1.37 (1.23 to 1.53) and 1.33 (1.26 to 1.40) in Asian men and women respectively. The corresponding figures in ANZ were 1.95 (1.81 to 2.09) and 1.85 (1.69 to 2.02). The HR for quitting in ANZ was 0.67 (0.63 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.58 to 0.74) in men and women respectively. Quitting smoking had a significant benefit among Asian men, the HR was 0.88 (0.81 to 0.97) after ignoring the first 3 years of follow-up. There was no evidence of benefit for Asian women, for whom ex-smoking is rare. CONCLUSIONS Allowing for the recent uptake of smoking in Asia, its effects are comparable to those observed in ANZ. Stringent tobacco control measures and smoking cessation strategies are urgently required in Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Barzi
- The George Institute for International Health, PO Box M201, Missenden Road, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia.
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Abstract
CONTEXT The prevalence of depression in later life increases with plasma total homocysteine concentration (tHcy). High tHcy accounts for about 15% of prevalent cases, but observational studies are prone to confounding and bias. Genetic association studies are not prone to the same sources of error and offer an opportunity to explore the consistency and external validity of this association. OBJECTIVE To determine if tHcy is causally related to depression in later life. DESIGN Cross-sectional study (Health in Men Study), systematic review, and meta-analysis. Patients Community sample of 3752 men aged 70 years or older (Health in Men Study). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Fifteen-Item Geriatric Depression Scale and self-reported past or current treatment for depression (Health in Men Study). RESULTS In the Health in Men Study, the odds ratio (OR) of prevalent depression increased 4% (OR, 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.05) with every unit increase of tHcy (micromoles per liter). The tHcy was 0.19 mg/L higher among participants with the MTHFR C677T TT genotype compared with the CC genotype. The meta-analysis showed that older adults with high tHcy had increased risk of depression (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.38-2.08) and TT carriers were 22% more likely than CC carriers to have current depression or a history of depression (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.47). CONCLUSIONS The triangular association between the MTHFR genotype, tHcy, and depression implies that higher concentrations of tHcy increase the risk of depression and that lowering tHcy by 0.19 mg/L could reduce the odds of depression by about 20%. Confirmatory data from sufficiently powered randomized trials of homocysteine-lowering therapy are now required to test if the relationship between tHcy and depression is truly causal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Osvaldo P Almeida
- FRANZCP, Western Australian Centre for Health and Ageing, University of Western Australia, Mail Box M573, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
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