2023 Australian guideline for assessing and managing cardiovascular disease risk

INTRODUCTION

The 2023 Australian guideline for assessing and managing cardiovascular disease risk provides updated evidence-based recommendations for the clinical assessment and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk for primary prevention. It includes the new Australian CVD risk calculator (Aus CVD Risk Calculator), based on an equation developed from a large New Zealand cohort study, customised and recalibrated for the Australian population. The new guideline replaces the 2012 guideline that recommended CVD risk assessment using the Framingham risk equation.

MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS

The new guideline recommends CVD risk assessment in people without known CVD: all people aged 45-79 years, people with diabetes from 35 years, and First Nations people from 30 years. The new Aus CVD Risk Calculator should be used to estimate and categorise CVD risk into low (< 5% risk over five years), intermediate (5% to < 10% risk over five years) or high risk (≥ 10% over five years). The following reclassification factors may be applied to recategorise calculated risk to improve accuracy of risk prediction, particularly in individuals close to a risk threshold: Indigenous status/ethnicity, estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine albumin to creatinine ratio measurements, severe mental illness, coronary artery calcium score and family history of premature CVD. A variety of communication formats is available to communicate CVD risk to help enable shared decision making. Healthy lifestyle modification, including smoking cessation, nutrition, physical activity and limiting alcohol, is encouraged for all individuals. Blood pressure-lowering and lipid-modifying pharmacotherapies should be prescribed for high risk and considered for intermediate risk individuals, unless contraindicated or clinically inappropriate. Reassessment of CVD risk should be considered within five years for individuals at low risk and within two years for those with intermediate risk. Reassessment of CVD risk is not recommended for individuals at high risk. CHANGES IN ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THE GUIDELINE: The updated guideline recommends assessment over a broader age range and uses the Aus CVD Risk Calculator, which replaces the previous Framingham-based equation. It incorporates new variables: social disadvantage, diabetes-specific risk markers, diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and use of blood pressure-lowering and lipid-modifying therapies. Reclassification factors are also a new addition. Updated risk categories and thresholds are based on the new Aus CVD Risk Calculator. The proportion of the population in the high risk category (≥ 10% over five years) is likely to be broadly comparable to more than 15% risk from the Framingham-based equation. The full guideline and Aus CVD Risk Calculator can be accessed at www.cvdcheck.org.au.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

The contribution of raised blood pressure to all-cause and cardiovascular deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Australia: Analysis of global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2019

AIMS

In a high-income country, Australia, it is unclear how raised systolic blood pressure (SBP) ranks among other risk factors regarding the overall and cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden, and whether the situation has changed over time.

METHODS

We analysed the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, with focus on Australia. We assessed ten leading risk factors for all-cause and CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and compared findings with the Australian Burden of Diseases Study.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, raised SBP remained the leading risk factor for attributable all-cause deaths (followed by dietary risks and tobacco use), accounting for 29,056/75,235 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI) [24,863 to 32,915]) deaths in 1990; 21,845/76,893 [17,678 to 26,044] in 2010; and 25,498/90,393 [20,152 to 30,851] in 2019. Contributions of raised SBP to cardiovascular deaths for both sexes were 54.0% [45.8 to 61.5] in 1990, 44.0% [36.7 to 51.3] in 2010 and 43.7% [36.2 to 51.6] in 2019, respectively. The contribution of raised SBP to cardiovascular deaths declined between 1990 and 2010 but exhibited an increase in males from 2010 onwards, with figures of 52.6% [44.7 to 60.0] in 1990, 43.1% [36.0 to 50.5] in 2010 and 43.5% [35.7 to 51.4] in 2019. The contribution of raised SBP to stroke deaths and DALYs in males aged 25-49 years were higher than other age groups, in excess of 60% and increasing steeply between 2010 and 2019.

CONCLUSION

Raised SBP continues to be the leading risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths in Australia. We urge cross-disciplinary stakeholder engagement to implement effective strategies to detect, treat and control raised blood pressure as a central priority to mitigate the CVD burden.

Improving the accuracy of blood pressure measuring devices in Australia: a modelled return on investment study

The VALID BP project was initiated to increase the availability of validated blood pressure measuring devices (BPMDs). The goal is to eliminate non validated BPMDs and minimise over- and underdiagnosis of hypertension caused by inaccurate readings. This study was undertaken to assess the potential return on investment in the VALID BP project. The Framework to Assess the Impact of Translational Health Research was applied to the VALID BP project. This paper focuses on the implementation of the cost benefit analysis aspect of this framework to monetise past research investment and model future research costs, implementation costs, and benefits. Analysis was based on reasoned assumptions about potential impacts from availability and use of validated BPMDs (assuming an end goal of 100% validated BPMDs available in Australia by 2028) and improved skills leading to more accurate BP measurement. After 5 years, with 20% attribution of benefits, there is a potential $1.14-$1.30 return for every dollar spent if the proportion of validated BPMDs and staff trained in proper BP measurement technique increased from 20% to 60%. After eight years (2020-2028) and assuming universal validation and training coverage, the returns would be between $2.70 and $3.20 per dollar spent (not including cost of side effects of unnecessary medication or downstream patient impacts from unmanaged hypertension). This modelled economic analysis indicates there will be positive downstream economic benefits if the availability of validated BPMDs is increased. The findings support ongoing efforts toward a universal regulatory framework for BPMDs and can be considered within more detailed future economic analyses.

Differences in predictors of incident heart failure according to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease status

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality, related to a broad range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity risk factors, which may differ according to the presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We assessed the association between incident HF with baseline status across these domains, overall and separated according to ASCVD status.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 5758 participants from the Baker Biobank cohort without HF at baseline enrolled between January 2000 and December 2011. The primary endpoint was incident HF, defined as hospital admission or HF-related death, determined through linkage with state-wide administrative databases (median follow-up 12.2 years). Regression models were fitted adjusted for sociodemographic variables, alcohol intake, smoking status, measures of adiposity, cardiometabolic profile measures, and individual comorbidities. During 65 987 person-years (median age 59 years, 38% women), incident HF occurred among 784 participants (13.6%) overall. Rates of incident HF were higher among patients with ASCVD (624/1929, 32.4%) compared with those without ASCVD (160/3829, 4.2%). Incident HF was associated with age, socio-economic status, alcohol intake, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), with non-linear relationships observed for age, alcohol intake, BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, SBP, LDL-C, and HDL-C. Risk factors for incident HF were largely consistent regardless of ASCVD status, although diabetes status had a greater association with incident HF among patients without ASCVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident HF is associated with a broad range of baseline sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity factors, which are mostly consistent regardless of ASCVD status. These data could be useful in efforts towards developing risk prediction models that can be used in patients with ASCVD.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Initial Implementation of the My Heart, My Life Program by the National Heart Foundation of Australia: Pilot Mixed Methods Evaluation Study

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains the leading cause of death in Australia, with a high residual risk of repeat events in survivors. Secondary prevention therapy is crucial for reducing the risk of both death and other major adverse cardiac events. The National Heart Foundation of Australia has developed a consumer-facing support program called My Heart, My Life (MHML) to address the gap in the secondary prevention of CHD in Australia. The MHML pilot program supplies advice and support for both patients and their caregivers, and it was conducted over 8 months from November 2019 to June 2020.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe and examine the implementation of a novel multimodality secondary CHD prevention pilot program called MHML, which was delivered through booklets, text messages, emails, and telephone calls.

METHODS

This pilot study consists of a mixed methods evaluation involving surveys of participants (patients and caregivers) and health professionals, in-depth interviews, and digital communication (SMS text message, electronic direct mail, and call record analytics). This study was performed in people older than 18 years with acute coronary syndrome or angina and their caregivers in 38 Australian hospitals from November 2019 to June 2020 through the National Heart Foundation of Australia web page. The main outcome measures were reach, accessibility, feasibility, barriers, and enablers to implementation of this program.

RESULTS

Of the 1004 participants (838 patients and 164 caregivers; 2 missing), 60.9% (608/1001) were males, 50.7% (491/967) were aged between 45 and 64 years, 27.4% (276/1004) were from disadvantaged areas, 2.5% (24/946) were from Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander background, and 16.9% (170/1004) reported English as their second language. The participants (patients and their caregivers) and health professionals reported high satisfaction with the MHML program (55/62, 88.7% and 33/38, 87%, respectively). Of the 62 participants who took the survey, 88% (55/62) used the text messaging service and reported a very high level of satisfaction. Approximately 94% (58/62) and 89% (55/62) of the participants were satisfied with the quick guide booklets 1 and 2, respectively; 79% (49/62) were satisfied with the monthly email journey and 71% (44/62) were satisfied with the helpline calls. Most participants reported that the MHML program improved preventive behaviors, that is, 73% (45/62) of them reported that they maintained increased physical activity and 84% (52/62) reported that they maintained a healthy diet even after the MHML program.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our pilot study suggest that a multimodal support program, including digital, print, phone, and web-based media, for the secondary prevention of CHD is useful and could be a potential means of providing customized at-scale secondary prevention support for survivors of acute coronary syndrome.

Cardiovascular Disease Implementation and Policy Priorities for Australia: Recommendations From an Australian Stakeholder Roundtable

The Australian Cardiovascular Alliance (ACvA), the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ) and the National Heart Foundation of Australia (NHFA) recently joined forces to bring the cardiovascular and stroke community together to convene and document a national discussion and propose a national CVD Implementation and Policy agenda and action plan. This includes prevention and screening, acute care and secondary prevention.

Incorporating a polygenic risk score-triaged coronary calcium score into cardiovascular disease examinations to identify subclinical coronary artery disease (ESCALATE): Protocol for a prospective, nonrandomized implementation trial

BACKGROUND

Identifying and targeting established modifiable risk factors has been a successful strategy for reducing the burden of coronary artery disease (CAD) at the population-level. However, up to 1-in-4 patients who present with ST elevation myocardial infarction do so in the absence of such risk factors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have demonstrated an ability to improve risk prediction models independent of traditional risk factors and self-reported family history, but a pathway for implementation has yet to be clearly identified. The aim of this study is to examine the utility of a CAD PRS to identify individuals with subclinical CAD via a novel clinical pathway, triaging low or intermediate absolute risk individuals for noninvasive coronary imaging, and examining the impact on shared treatment decisions and participant experience.

TRIAL DESIGN

The ESCALATE study is a 12-month, prospective, multicenter implementation study incorporating PRS into otherwise standard primary care CVD risk assessments, to identify patients at increased lifetime CAD risk for noninvasive coronary imaging. One-thousand eligible participants aged 45 to 65 years old will enter the study, which applies PRS to those considered low or moderate 5-year absolute CVD risk and triages those with CAD PRS ≥80% for a coronary calcium scan. The primary outcome will be the identification of subclinical CAD, defined as a coronary artery calcium score (CACS) >0 Agatston units (AU). Multiple secondary outcomes will be assessed, including baseline CACS ≥100 AU or ≥75th age-/sex-matched percentile, the use and intensity of lipid- and blood pressure-lowering therapeutics, cholesterol and blood pressure levels, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL).

CONCLUSION

This novel trial will generate evidence on the ability of a PRS-triaged CACS to identify subclinical CAD, as well as subsequent differences in traditional risk factor medical management, pharmacotherapy utilization, and participant experience.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12622000436774. Trial was prospectively registered on March 18, 2022. https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=383134.

Clinical Pathway for Coronary Atherosclerosis in Patients Without Conventional Modifiable Risk Factors: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

Reducing the incidence and prevalence of standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs) is critical to tackling the global burden of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, a substantial number of individuals develop coronary atherosclerosis despite no SMuRFs. SMuRFless patients presenting with myocardial infarction have been observed to have an unexpected higher early mortality compared to their counterparts with at least 1 SMuRF. Evidence for optimal management of these patients is lacking. We assembled an international, multidisciplinary team to develop an evidence-based clinical pathway for SMuRFless CAD patients. A modified Delphi method was applied. The resulting pathway confirms underlying atherosclerosis and true SMuRFless status, ensures evidence-based secondary prevention, and considers additional tests and interventions for less typical contributors. This dedicated pathway for a previously overlooked CAD population, with an accompanying registry, aims to improve outcomes through enhanced adherence to evidence-based secondary prevention and additional diagnosis of modifiable risk factors observed.

Editors' Commentary on the 2023 ESH Management of Arterial Hypertension Guidelines

Clinical practice guidelines are ideally suited to the provision of advice on the prevention, diagnosis, evaluation, and management of high blood pressure (BP). The recently published European Society of Hypertension (ESH) 2023 ESH Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension is the latest in a long series of high BP clinical practice guidelines. It closely resembles the 2018 European Society of Cardiology/ESH guidelines, with incremental rather than major changes. Although the ESH guidelines are primarily written for European clinicians and public health workers, there is a high degree of concordance between its recommendations and those in the other major BP guidelines. Despite the large number of national and international BP guidelines around the world, general population surveys demonstrate that BP guidelines are not being well implemented in any part of the world. The level of BP, which is the basis for diagnosis and management, continues to be poorly measured in routine clinical practice and control of hypertension remains suboptimal, even to a conservative BP target such as a systolic/diastolic BP <140/90 mm Hg. BP guidelines need to focus much more on implementation of recommendations for accurate diagnosis and strategies for improved control in those being treated for hypertension. An evolving body of implementation science can assist in meeting this goal. Given the enormous health, social, and financial burden of high BP, better diagnosis and management should be an imperative for clinicians, government, and others responsible for the provision of health care services. Hopefully, the 2023 ESH will help enable this.

Can a Targeted Social Media Campaign Increase Reach of, and Engagement With, Heart Failure Self-Management Resources in Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Communities in Victoria, Australia? An Evaluation Including Cost

AIM

This study investigates whether a targeted social media campaign increases reach and engagement of heart failure self-management educational resources among culturally and linguistically diverse communities in Victoria, Australia.

METHODS

A targeted six-week Facebook social media campaign (from 3 October 2022 to 13 November 2022) was performed using the Precision Public Health Framework. Animated heart failure educational videos were developed, translated, and publicised among Mandarin-, Vietnamese- and English-speaking communities in Victoria, Australia. Data from Facebook, Google Analytics and social marketing costs were analysed. An independent, two sample t-test was applied to investigate differences in the performance (views and cost-per-click) of the English and translated Mandarin and Vietnamese social media campaigns. Webpage views (of the promoted heart failure webpage) during the campaign were compared to the same period 12 months prior.

RESULTS

A total of 664,434 English and 182,294 translated Vietnamese and Mandarin video advertisements were placed and seen in individuals' social media feeds (impressions) over the six weeks. Per capita reach was proportionally higher for Vietnamese and Mandarin video advertisements (54% versus 15%). The percentage of those who watched the educational video in the social media posts, for at least 15 seconds (a 'ThruPlay'), was significantly higher in Mandarin and Vietnamese-speaking communities (75% versus 40% among the English-speaking community p<0.0001). However, those viewing in English had significantly longer engagement and watched at least half of the video (2.5% versus Vietnamese and Mandarin viewers (0.31%), p<0.0001). The click-through rate and cost-per-click were significantly higher for the translated social media posts compared with the English (0.77% vs 0.62%, p=0.0185 and AUD$4.48 vs AUD$3.22, p<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

A targeted six-week Facebook social media campaign using translated video animations in Vietnamese and Mandarin had significantly higher reach, initial views (first 15 seconds) and higher click-through rates, but fewer views of at least half of the video, compared with the Facebook English videos. Higher costs-per-click were associated with the translated campaign. Further research is needed to understand the extent that social media translated campaigns can influence health behaviour.

Evidence supporting the choice of a new cardiovascular risk equation for Australia

This article reviews the risk equations recommended for use in international cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention guidelines and assesses their suitability for use in Australia against a set of a priori defined selection criteria. The review and assessment were commissioned by the National Heart Foundation of Australia on behalf of the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance to inform recommendations on CVD risk estimation as part of the 2023 update of the Australian CVD risk assessment and management guidelines. Selected international risk equations were assessed against eight selection criteria: development using contemporary data; inclusion of established cardiovascular risk factors; inclusion of ethnicity and deprivation measures; prediction of a broad selection of fatal and non-fatal CVD outcomes; population representativeness; model performance; external validation in an Australian dataset; and the ability to be recalibrated or modified. Of the ten risk prediction equations reviewed, the New Zealand PREDICT equation met seven of the eight selection criteria, and met additional usability criteria aimed at assessing the ability to apply the risk equation in practice in Australia.

Examining training and attitudes to basic life support in multi-ethnic communities residing in New South Wales, Australia: A mixed-methods investigation

BACKGROUND

Bystander response, including cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), is critical to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survival. Nearly 30% of Australian residents were born overseas, and little is known about their preparedness to perform CPR. In this mixed-methods study, we examined rates of training and willingness and barriers to performing CPR among immigrants in Australia.

METHODS

First, we surveyed residents in New South Wales, Australia, using purposeful sampling to enrich immigrant populations. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the association between place of birth and willingness to perform CPR. Next, we conducted focus-group discussions with members of the region's largest migrant groups to explore barriers and relevant societal or cultural factors.

RESULTS

Of the 1267 survey participants (average age 49.6 years, 52% female), 60% were born outside Australia, most in Asia and 73% had lived in Australia for more than 10 years. Higher rates of previous CPR training were reported among Australian-born participants compared with South Asian-born and East Asian-born (77%, 35%, 48%, respectively, p <0.001). In adjusted models, the odds of willingness to perform CPR on a stranger were significantly lower among migrants than Australian-born (adjusted OR: 0.64; 95% CI 0.49 to 0.83); however, this association was mediated by history of training. Themes emerging from the focus-group discussions included concerns about causing harm, fear of liability, and birthplace-specific social and cultural barriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted awareness and training interventions, which address common and culture-specific barriers to response and improved access to training, may improve confidence and willingness to respond to OHCA in multi-ethnic communities.

Feasibility of a text-mediated recall system to increase cardiovascular disease risk assessment in general practice: Mixed-methods pilot evaluation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The uptake of formal cardiovascular disease risk assessment in the primary prevention setting is low. We tested the feasibility of an SMS recall system to invite eligible patients for a Heart Health Check in Australian general practice.

METHOD

Of 332 general practices that expressed interest in the study, 231 were randomised to either an intervention or wait list control group. Intervention general practices sent SMS invitations linked to digital information to eligible patients via general practice software. Deidentified baseline and two-month data were extracted via clinical audit software. A survey was administered to 35 intervention general practices.

RESULTS

General practice visits were similar between the control and intervention groups, but Heart Health Check billing increased 14-fold in the intervention group.

DISCUSSION

This study showed that an SMS recall system for Heart Health Checks can be effective and acceptable in general practice. The findings will inform a broader implementation trial over 2022-23.

High night-to-night variability in sleep apnea severity is associated with uncontrolled hypertension

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity can vary markedly from night-to-night. However, the impact of night-to-night variability in OSA severity on key cardiovascular outcomes such as hypertension is unknown. Thus, the primary aim of this study is to determine the effects of night-to-night variability in OSA severity on hypertension likelihood. This study uses in-home monitoring of 15,526 adults with ~180 nights per participant with an under-mattress sleep sensor device, plus ~30 repeat blood pressure measures. OSA severity is defined from the mean estimated apnea-hypopnoea index (AHI) over the ~6-month recording period for each participant. Night-to-night variability in severity is determined from the standard deviation of the estimated AHI across recording nights. Uncontrolled hypertension is defined as mean systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg and/or mean diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg. Regression analyses are performed adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index. A total of 12,287 participants (12% female) are included in the analyses. Participants in the highest night-to-night variability quartile within each OSA severity category, have a 50-70% increase in uncontrolled hypertension likelihood versus the lowest variability quartile, independent of OSA severity. This study demonstrates that high night-to-night variability in OSA severity is a predictor of uncontrolled hypertension, independent of OSA severity. These findings have important implications for the identification of which OSA patients are most at risk of cardiovascular harm.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

212 FATIGUE EXPERIENCED BY ADULTS WITH LONG-COVID WAS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMG-DERIVED MUSCLE FATIGUE INDEX

Background

One of the most prominent challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic is the emergence of the post-COVID-19 syndrome or ‘long-COVID’ following the acute phase of the viral infection. With a plethora of debilitating symptoms across many physiological systems, the pathophysiology of long-COVID remains elusive and subject of intense research efforts. Adults with long COVID are often affected by prolonged fatigue, which could be linked to neuromuscular function impairment. We hypothesised that there might be a correlation between subjective fatigue and an Electromyograph(EMG)-derived muscle fatigue index in adults with long-COVID.

Methods

As part of a neuro-cardiovascular instability assessment protocol, participants were asked to squeeze the thigh muscles as hard as possible for ten seconds during both supine resting and after active and passive standing (head-up tilt) tests. Surface EMG was used to capture on each leg the physiological activity of the vastus lateralis and rectus femoris during the squeezes, from which the muscle fatigue index was computed based on both the mean and median frequencies of each 10-second maximum prompted muscle contraction. Using two-sided Spearman correlation coefficients, we examined the associations between the muscle fatigue indices and self-reported fatigue measured by the Chalder Fatigue Scale (CFQ).

Results

108 participants were included, 77 female and 31 male, with a mean age of 46 (range 25-78) years, 22% of whom were hospitalised in the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Strong intercorrelations were found between the muscle fatigue indices derived from the mean and median frequencies of thigh muscle contractions. However, no significant correlations were detected between the muscle fatigue indices and CFQ scores.

Conclusion

Self-reported fatigue as measured by the CFQ was not associated with an EMG-derived muscle fatigue index in this long-COVID cohort.

Development and Use of a Cardiac Clinical Guideline Mobile App in Australia: Acceptability and Multi-Methods Study

Background

Implementation of clinical guidelines into routine practice remains highly variable. Strategies to increase guideline uptake include developing digital tools and mobile apps for use in clinical practice. The National Heart Foundation of Australia in collaboration with the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand published 3 key cardiac clinical guidelines, including the Australian clinical guidelines for the (1) prevention and detection of atrial fibrillation, (2) detection and management of heart failure, and (3) management of acute coronary syndromes. To improve access and uptake for health care providers, we developed the Smart Heart Guideline App.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the acceptability, implementation, and usability of an Australian-specific cardiac guidelines mobile app.

Methods

We used an iterative multiple methods development and implementation approach. First, we conducted a cross-sectional web-based survey with end users (n=504 health professionals) in 2017 to determine the acceptability of an Australian-specific cardiac clinical guidelines mobile app. Second, the Smart Heart Guidelines app was created using a design, user testing, and revision process. The app includes interactive algorithms and flowcharts to inform diagnosis and management at the point of care. The freely available app was launched in October 2019 on iOS and Android operating systems and promoted and implemented using multiple methods. Third, data from 2 annual national cross-sectional general practitioner (GP) surveys in 2019 and 2020 were evaluated to understand the awareness and use of the clinical guidelines and the app. Fourth, data from the app stores were analyzed between October 1, 2019, and June 30, 2021, to evaluate usage.

Results

Most health professionals surveyed (447/504, 89%) reported accessing resources electronically, and most (318/504, 63%) reported that they would use an Australian-specific cardiac guidelines app. GPs surveyed in 2019 were aware of the heart failure (159/312, 51%) and atrial fibrillation (140/312, 45%) guidelines, and in 2020, a total of 34 of 189 (18%) reported that they were aware of the app. The app was downloaded 11,313 times (7483, 66% from the Apple App Store; 3830, 34% from Google Play) during the first 20-month period. Most downloads (6300/7483, 84%) were a result of searching for the app in the stores. Monthly download rates varied. App Store data showed that people used the app twice (on average 2.06 times) during the 20 months. Many (3256/3830, 85%) Android users deleted the app.

Conclusions

Health professionals supported the development of the Smart Heart Guidelines app. Although initial downloads were promising, the frequency of using the app was low and deletion rates were high. Further evaluation of users’ experience of the most and least useful components of the app is needed.

Improving community-based first response to out of hospital cardiac arrest (FirstCPR): protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with poor survival outcomes, but prompt bystander action can more than double survival rates. Being trained, confident and willing-to-perform cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) are known predictors of bystander action. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of a community organisation targeted multicomponent education and training initiative on being willing to respond to OHCAs. The study employs a novel approach to reaching community members via social and cultural groups, and the intervention aims to address commonly cited barriers to training including lack of availability, time and costs.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

FirstCPR is a cluster randomised trial that will be conducted across 200 community groups in urban and regional Australia. It will target community groups where CPR training is not usual. Community groups (clusters) will be stratified by region, size and organisation type, and then randomly assigned to either immediately receive the intervention programme, comprising digital and in-person education and training opportunities about CPR and OHCA over 12 months, or a delayed programme implementation. The primary outcome is self-reported 'training and willingness-to-perform CPR' at 12 months. It will be assessed through surveys of group members that consent in intervention versus control groups and administered prior to control groups receiving the intervention. The primary analysis will follow intention-to-treat principles, use log binomial regression accounting for baseline covariates and be conducted at the individual level, while accounting for clustering within communities. Focus groups and interviews will be conducted to examine barriers and enablers to implementation and costs will also be examined.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from The University of Sydney. Findings from this study will be disseminated via presentations at scientific conferences, publications in peer-reviewed journals, scientific and lay reports.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12621000367842.

Historical Context of Cardiac Rehabilitation: Learning From the Past to Move to the Future

Contemporary myocardial infarction (MI) care and management has evolved dramatically since the 1950's; yet outpatient rehabilitation remains underutilized. Deepening our understanding of the origins and history of cardiac rehabilitation highlights a contemporary shift required for policy and practice related to secondary prevention of coronary disease in light of societal changes as well as medical, digital and surgical advancements. Contemporary "cardiac rehabilitation" began when bed rest and physical inactivity was recommended and commonplace for MI survivors. Today, most patients who survive an MI, undergo reperfusion therapy, a short inpatient stay and are discharged with minimal physical morbidity. Despite this, the majority of modern day programs continue to be structured in the same way they have been for the past 50 years and this model has become incongruent with the contemporary context, especially in the COVID-19 era. This review aims to describe the historical foundations of cardiac rehabilitation to inform solutions and meet the demands of contemporary MI management. Delivering health systems reform to address modernization is current healthcare challenge where a united and interdisciplinary effort is needed.

Measurement of Noradrenaline and Serotonin Metabolites With Internal Jugular Vein Sampling: An Indicator of Brain Monoamine Turnover in Depressive Illness and Panic Disorder

In research spanning three decades we have estimated brain monoamine turnover (approximately equating with synthesis rate) with sampling from the internal jugular veins and measurement of trans-cerebral plasma monoamine metabolite concentration gradients. Here we report indices of brain noradrenaline and serotonin turnover in patients with major depressive illness (MDD) and panic disorder (PD). Brain noradrenaline turnover was assessed from the combined flux into the internal jugular veins of the metabolites dihydroxyphenylglycol (DHPG) and 3-hydroxy-4-methoxyphenylglycol (MHPG), and brain serotonin turnover from the overflow of the primary metabolite, 5-hydroxyindole acetic acid (5HIAA). Comparison was made with matched healthy research participants. In both MD and PD the estimate of brain noradrenaline turnover provided by metabolite overflow was unremarkable. In contrast, in both patient groups the estimate of brain serotonin turnover provided by 5HIAA overflow was increased 3-4-fold (P < 0.01). This neurotransmitter abnormality was normalized in MDD and PD in clinical remission, during selective serotonin reuptake blocker (SSRI) dosing. We cannot be sure if the brain serotonergic abnormality we find in MDD and PD is causal or a correlate. Measurements in PD were not made during a panic attack. The increased estimated serotonin turnover here may possibly be a substrate for panic attacks; serotonergic raphe nuclei participate in anxiety responses in experimental animals. It is puzzling that the findings were identical in MDD and PD, although it may be pertinent that these psychiatric diagnoses are commonly comorbid. It is unlikely that activation of brain serotonergic neurons is driving the sympathetic nervous activation present, which contributes to cardiovascular risk, persistent sympathetic activation in MDD and episodic activation in PD during panic attacks. We have previously demonstrated that the mechanism of activation of human central sympathetic outflow in other contexts (hypertension, heart failure) is activation of noradrenergic brainstem neurons projecting to the hypothalamus and amygdala.

123 ACUTE-PHASE BED-REST DURATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER GRIP STRENGTH IN A POST-COVID-19 COHORT

Background

Though age-related muscle loss is traditionally associated with older cohorts, strong evidence suggests a life-spanning precipitation of decreasing muscle mass and strength beginning as early as the fourth decade of life, with established deleterious consequences for later-life morbidity and mortality. Periods of low activity and bed rest (LA/BR) can further compound this depletion of muscle strength. Our aim was to examine such associations in a post-COVID-19 cohort.

Methods

Participants reporting ongoing symptomatology and fatigue post COVID-19 underwent assessments of grip strength via hand-held dynamometry (2 measures on each hand). Demographics of COVID-19 illness, including time since diagnosis, duration of LA/BR during acute illness, and levels of fatigue were captured via self-reported questionnaires. Independent predictors of mean grip strength were investigated using a linear regression model.

Results

Forty-nine participants underwent assessments (69% female, mean age 44(12) years). At the time of assessment, days post COVID-19 diagnosis ranged from 39–522 (mean 262(140)). The mean self-reported period of LA/BR during the acute illness was 15(18) days. In general, participants reported significant levels of fatigue (median Chalder Fatigue Scale score 22(8)). Mean grip strength was 41.3(6.3) Kg for men and 22.8(6.7) Kg for women. When predictors of grip strength were investigated, an increased duration of LA/BR was found to be associated with lower grip strength, independently of age, gender, time since COVID-19 diagnosis, and self-reported fatigue (Beta = −0.158, 95% Confidence Interval − 0.242 to −0.074, p = 0.001).

Conclusion

In this cohort, every day of LA/BR during acute COVID-19 illness was independently associated with subsequent lower grip strength of approximately 150 g. These results underscore the importance of early mobilization and discouraging bed rest in the acute phase of COVID-19. Patients who are isolating should be encouraged to maintain physical activity and muscle strength as part of a modified isolation-friendly rehabilitation programme.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

Can existing electronic medical records be used to quantify cardiovascular risk at point of care?

BACKGROUND

Using electronic data for cardiovascular risk stratification could help in prioritising healthcare access and optimise cardiovascular prevention.

AIMS

To determine whether assessment of absolute cardiovascular risk (Australian Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk, ACVDR) and short-term ischaemic risk (HEART Score) are possible from available data in Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and My Health Record (MHR) of patients presenting with acute cardiac symptoms to a Rapid Access Cardiology Clinic (RACC).

METHODS

Audit of EMR and MHR on 200 randomly selected adults who presented to RACC between 1st of March 2017 and 4th February 2020. The main outcomes were the proportion of patients for which an ACVDR and HEART Score could be calculated.

RESULTS

Mean age was 55.2 ± 17.8 years and 43% were female. Most were referred from Emergency (85%) for chest pain (52%). 46% had hypertension, 35% obesity, 20% diabetes mellitus, 17% ischaemic heart disease, and 18% were current smokers. There was no significant difference in MHR accessibility with age, gender, and number of comorbidities. ACVDR could be estimated for 17.5% (EMR) and 0% (MHR) of patients. None had complete data to estimate HEART Score in either EMR or MHR. Most commonly missing variables for ACVDR were blood pressure (MHR) and HDL-C (EMR), and for HEART Score were body mass index and comorbidities (MHR and EMR).

CONCLUSIONS

Significant gaps are apparent in electronic medical data capture of key variables to perform cardiovascular risk assessment. Medical data capture should prioritise the collection of clinically important data to help address gaps in cardiovascular management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Translation and Impact of Funded Australian Cardiovascular Research: A Review With Perspective

This aim of this paper is to set the scene for the need for impact assessment and return on investment in funded cardiovascular research in Australia, starting with the historical perspective on waste in health and medical research. Recently there has been a substantial move from discussion and policy about the need for research translation, into practice and application via the evolution of funding streams like the Australian Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF). Health and medical research funders play a critical role in both setting the expectations for research translation and impact and helping researchers to meet these expectations. As a leading cause of death, cardiovascular disease is a national health priority, recognised as such with a AUD$220 million MRFF allocation to the Cardiovascular Health Mission. Focussing on cardiovascular research, we address some of the barriers researchers face in prospectively planning for research translation and impact assessment, and call for an ecosystem that supports a return on investment for all stakeholders, especially the community and patient end-users.

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults aged under 35 years: a consensus statement

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. This statement from the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance, the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation and the Editorial Committee for Remote Primary Health Care Manuals communicates the latest consensus advice of guideline developers, aligning recommendations on the age to commence Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander CVD risk assessment across three guidelines. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: In Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples without existing CVD: CVD risk factor screening should commence from the age of 18 years at the latest, including for blood glucose level or glycated haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum lipids, urine albumin to creatinine ratio, and other risk factors such as blood pressure, history of familial hypercholesterolaemia, and smoking status. Individuals aged 18-29 years with the following clinical conditions are automatically conferred high CVD risk: ▶type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria; ▶moderate to severe chronic kidney disease; ▶systolic blood pressure ≥ 180 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 110 mmHg; ▶familial hypercholesterolaemia; or ▶serum total cholesterol > 7.5 mmol/L. Assessment using the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance absolute CVD risk algorithm should commence from the age of 30 years at the latest - consider upward adjustment of calculated CVD risk score, accounting for local guideline use, risk factor and CVD epidemiology, and clinical discretion. Assessment should occur as part of an annual health check or opportunistically. Subsequent review should be conducted according to level of risk. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THIS STATEMENT: From age 18 years (at the latest), Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults should undergo CVD risk factor screening, and from age 30 years (at the latest), they should undergo absolute CVD risk assessment using the NVDPA risk algorithm.

[Lancet Commission on Hypertension Group position statement on the global improvement of accuracy standards for devices that measure blood pressurePosicionamento do Grupo da Lancet Commission on Hypertension sobre a melhoria global dos padrões de acurácia para aparelhos que medem a pressão arterial]

The Lancet Commission on Hypertension identified that a key action to address the worldwide burden of high blood pressure (BP) was to improve the quality of BP measurements by using BP devices that have been validated for accuracy. Currently, there are over 3 000 commercially available BP devices, but many do not have published data on accuracy testing according to established scientific standards. This problem is enabled through weak or absent regulations that allow clearance of devices for commercial use without formal validation. In addition, new BP technologies have emerged (e.g. cuffless sensors) for which there is no scientific consensus regarding BP measurement accuracy standards. Altogether, these issues contribute to the widespread availability of clinic and home BP devices with limited or uncertain accuracy, leading to inappropriate hypertension diagnosis, management and drug treatment on a global scale. The most significant problems relating to the accuracy of BP devices can be resolved by the regulatory requirement for mandatory independent validation of BP devices according to the universally-accepted International Organization for Standardization Standard. This is a primary recommendation for which there is an urgent international need. Other key recommendations are development of validation standards specifically for new BP technologies and online lists of accurate devices that are accessible to consumers and health professionals. Recommendations are aligned with WHO policies on medical devices and universal healthcare. Adherence to recommendations would increase the global availability of accurate BP devices and result in better diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, thus decreasing the worldwide burden from high BP.

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

BACKGROUND

Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries.

METHODS

We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group.

RESULTS

Since ∼1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at ∼0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ∼0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ∼26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China.

CONCLUSIONS

HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.

Lancet Commission on Hypertension group position statement on the global improvement of accuracy standards for devices that measure blood pressure

: The Lancet Commission on Hypertension identified that a key action to address the worldwide burden of high blood pressure (BP) was to improve the quality of BP measurements by using BP devices that have been validated for accuracy. Currently, there are over 3000 commercially available BP devices, but many do not have published data on accuracy testing according to established scientific standards. This problem is enabled through weak or absent regulations that allow clearance of devices for commercial use without formal validation. In addition, new BP technologies have emerged (e.g. cuffless sensors) for which there is no scientific consensus regarding BP measurement accuracy standards. Altogether, these issues contribute to the widespread availability of clinic and home BP devices with limited or uncertain accuracy, leading to inappropriate hypertension diagnosis, management and drug treatment on a global scale. The most significant problems relating to the accuracy of BP devices can be resolved by the regulatory requirement for mandatory independent validation of BP devices according to the universally-accepted International Organisation for Standardization Standard. This is a primary recommendation for which there is an urgent international need. Other key recommendations are development of validation standards specifically for new BP technologies and online lists of accurate devices that are accessible to consumers and health professionals. Recommendations are aligned with WHO policies on medical devices and universal healthcare. Adherence to recommendations would increase the global availability of accurate BP devices and result in better diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, thus decreasing the worldwide burden from high BP.

The Baker Biobank: Understanding Cardiovascular Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and diabetes are two of the most important public health problems. Outcomes for patients with these disorders vary considerably, likely due to the added influence of a range of interacting clinical, metabolic, environmental, lifestyle, genetic and psychosocial risk factors associated with these diseases. The Baker Biobank study was designed to characterise these factors to inform better risk prediction, earlier diagnosis and better treatment of CVDs and diabetes.

METHODS

This paper describes the detailed methods for the establishment of the Baker Biobank. The study collected extensive phenotypic detail about the participants recruited from Victoria, Australia. Data and samples were collected at the Departments of Cardiology and Respiratory Medicine at the Alfred Hospital and Healthy Hearts Program at the Baker Institute.

RESULTS

A total of 6,530 adults with age 18-69 years were recruited into the Biobank. The majority of these participants (63%) were male. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of the Biobank Cohort at the time of data collection was 57(15) years. The study collected data on socio-demographic characteristics, behavioural and lifestyle factors, anthropometric measurements, medical and medication history, and blood levels of various biomarkers. The study also collected and stored Guthrie cards, serum, plasma, buffy coat, whole blood collected in Tempus tubes (for RNA extraction). For some samples extracted DNA and RNA is stored. The Biobank data is also linked to echocardiogram, hospital admission, pathology and mortality datasets. The Baker Biobank data and samples are available for health researchers with approval of Biobank Steering Group and Human Research Ethics Committee.

CONCLUSION

The Baker Biobank provides valuable data and samples into the study of the interplay among cardiovascular diseases risk factors and their impact on morbidity and mortality in Australia.

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

BACKGROUND

Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.

METHODS

We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.

RESULTS

In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.

CONCLUSIONS

Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.

METHODS

We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).

FINDINGS

Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.

INTERPRETATION

The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

Watching the dynamics of electrons and atoms at work in solar energy conversion

The photochemical reactions performed by transition metal complexes have been proposed as viable routes towards solar energy conversion and storage into other forms that can be conveniently used in our everyday applications. In order to develop efficient materials, it is necessary to identify, characterize and optimize the elementary steps of the entire process on the atomic scale. To this end, we have studied the photoinduced electronic and structural dynamics in two heterobimetallic ruthenium–cobalt dyads, which belong to the large family of donor–bridge–acceptor systems. Using a combination of ultrafast optical and X-ray absorption spectroscopies, we can clock the light-driven electron transfer processes with element and spin sensitivity. In addition, the changes in local structure around the two metal centers are monitored. These experiments show that the nature of the connecting bridge is decisive for controlling the forward and the backward electron transfer rates, a result supported by quantum chemistry calculations. More generally, this work illustrates how ultrafast optical and X-ray techniques can disentangle the influence of spin, electronic and nuclear factors on the intramolecular electron transfer process. Finally, some implications for further improving the design of bridged sensitizer-catalysts utilizing the presented methodology are outlined.