Performance of GFR Slope as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Disease Progression in Clinical Trials: A Statistical Simulation

Effect of dapagliflozin on the rate of decline in kidney function in patients with chronic kidney disease with and without type 2 diabetes: a prespecified analysis from the DAPA-CKD trial

BACKGROUND

Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of kidney failure in patients with chronic kidney disease with and without type 2 diabetes in the DAPA-CKD trial. In this pre-specified analysis, we assessed the effect of dapagliflozin on the rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)-ie, the eGFR slope.

METHODS

DAPA-CKD was a randomised controlled trial that enrolled participants aged 18 years or older, with or without type 2 diabetes, with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 200-5000 mg/g, and an eGFR of 25-75 mL/min per 1·73m². Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to oral dapagliflozin 10 mg once daily or placebo, added to standard care. In this pre-specified analysis, we analysed eGFR slope using mixed-effect models with different slopes from baseline to week 2 (acute eGFR decline), week 2 to end of treatment (chronic eGFR slope), and baseline to end of treatment (total eGFR slope). DAPA-CKD is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03036150, and is now complete.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 2, 2017, and April 3, 2020, 4304 participants were recruited, of whom 2152 (50%) were assigned to dapagliflozin and 2152 (50%) were assigned to placebo. At baseline, the mean age was 62 years (SD 12), 1425 (33·1%) participants were women, 2906 (67·5%) participants had type 2 diabetes. The median on-treatment follow-up was 2·3 years (IQR 1·8-2·6). From baseline to the end of treatment, dapagliflozin compared with placebo slowed eGFR decline by 0·95 mL/min per 1·73 m² per year (95% CI 0·63 to 1·27) in the overall cohort. Between baseline and week 2, dapagliflozin compared with placebo resulted in an acute eGFR decline of 2·61 mL/min per 1·73 m² (2·16 to 3·06) in patients with type 2 diabetes and 2·01 mL/min per 1·73 m² (1·36 to 2·66) in those without type 2 diabetes. Between week 2 and end of treatment, dapagliflozin compared with placebo reduced the mean rate of eGFR decline by a greater amount in patients with type 2 diabetes (mean difference in chronic eGFR slope 2·26 mL/min per 1·73 m² per year [1·88 to 2·64]) than in those without type 2 diabetes (1·29 mL/min per 1·73 m² per year [0·73 to 1·85]; p_interaction=0·0049). Between baseline and end of treatment, the effect of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on the decline of total eGFR slope in patients with type 2 diabetes was 1·18 mL/min per 1·73 m² per year (0·79 to 1·56) and without type 2 diabetes was 0·46 mL/min per 1·73 m² per year (-0·10 to 1·03; p_interaction=0·040). The total eGFR slope was steeper in patients with higher baseline HbA_1c and UACR; the effect of dapagliflozin on eGFR slope was also more pronounced in patients with higher baseline HbA_1c and UACR.

INTERPRETATION

Dapagliflozin significantly slowed long-term eGFR decline in patients with chronic kidney disease compared with placebo. The mean difference in eGFR slope between patients treated with dapagliflozin versus placebo was greater in patients with type 2 diabetes, higher HbA_1c, and higher UACR.

FUNDING

AstraZeneca.

Ertugliflozin and Slope of Chronic eGFR: Prespecified Analyses from the Randomized VERTIS CV Trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

A reduction in the rate of eGFR decline, with preservation of ≥0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m² per year, has been proposed as a surrogate for kidney disease progression. We report results from prespecified analyses assessing effects of ertugliflozin versus placebo on eGFR slope from the eValuation of ERTugliflozin effIcacy and Safety CardioVascular outcomes (VERTIS CV) trial (NCT01986881).

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were randomized to placebo, ertugliflozin 5 mg, and ertugliflozin 15 mg (1:1:1). The analyses compared the effect of ertugliflozin (pooled doses, n=5499) versus placebo (n=2747) on eGFR slope per week and per year by random coefficient models. Study periods (weeks 0-6 and weeks 6-52) and total and chronic slopes (week 0 or week 6 to weeks 104, 156, 208, and 260) were modeled separately and by baseline kidney status.

RESULTS

In the overall population, for weeks 0-6, the least squares mean eGFR slopes (ml/min per 1.73 m² per week [95% confidence interval (95% CI)]) were -0.07 (-0.16 to 0.03) and -0.54 (-0.61 to -0.48) for the placebo and ertugliflozin groups, respectively; the difference was -0.47 (-0.59 to -0.36). During weeks 6-52, least squares mean eGFR slopes (ml/min per 1.73 m² per year [95% CI]) were -0.12 (-0.70 to 0.46) and 1.62 (1.21 to 2.02) for the placebo and ertugliflozin groups, respectively; the difference was 1.74 (1.03 to 2.45). For weeks 6-156, least squares mean eGFR slopes (ml/min per 1.73 m² per year [95% CI]) were -1.51 (-1.70 to -1.32) and -0.32 (-0.45 to -0.19) for the placebo and ertugliflozin groups, respectively; the difference was 1.19 (0.95 to 1.42). During weeks 0-156, the placebo-adjusted difference in least squares mean slope was 1.06 (0.85 to 1.27). These findings were consistent by baseline kidney status.

CONCLUSIONS

Ertugliflozin has a favorable placebo-adjusted eGFR slope >0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m² per year, documenting the kidney function preservation underlying the clinical benefits of ertugliflozin on kidney disease progression in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER

US National Library of Medicine, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01986881. Date of trial registration: November 13, 2013.

Therapeutic trials in adult FSGS: lessons learned and the road forward

Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) is not a specific disease entity but a lesion that primarily targets the podocyte. In a broad sense, the causes of the lesion can be divided into those triggered by a presumed circulating permeability factor, those that occur secondary to a process that might originate outside the kidneys, those caused by a genetic mutation in a podocyte or glomerular basement membrane protein, and those that arise through an as yet unidentifiable process, seemingly unrelated to a circulating permeability factor. A careful attempt to correctly stratify patients with FSGS based on their clinical presentation and pathological findings on kidney biopsy is essential for sound treatment decisions in individual patients. However, it is also essential for the rational design of therapeutic trials in FSGS. Greater recognition of the pathophysiology underlying podocyte stress and damage in FSGS will increase the likelihood that the cause of an FSGS lesion is properly identified and enable stratification of patients in future interventional trials. Such efforts will facilitate the identification of effective therapeutic agents.

Association of Treatment Effects on Early Change in Urine Protein and Treatment Effects on GFR Slope in IgA Nephropathy: An Individual Participant Meta-analysis

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

An early change in proteinuria is considered a reasonably likely surrogate end point in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) and can be used as a basis for accelerated approval of therapies, with verification in a postmarketing confirmatory trial. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) slope is a recently validated surrogate end point for chronic kidney disease progression and may be considered as the end point used for verification. We undertook a meta-analysis of clinical trials in IgAN to compare treatment effects on change in proteinuria versus change in estimated GFR (eGFR) slope.

STUDY DESIGN

Individual patient-level meta-analysis.

SETTING & STUDY POPULATIONS

Individual data of 1,037 patients from 12 randomized trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA FOR STUDIES

Randomized trials of IgAN with proteinuria measurements at baseline and 6 (range, 2.5-14) months and at least a further 1 year of follow-up for the clinical outcome.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

For each trial, we estimated the treatment effects on proteinuria and on the eGFR slope, computed as the total slope starting at baseline or the chronic slope starting 3 months after randomization. We used a Bayesian mixed-effects analysis to relate the treatment effects on proteinuria to effects on GFR slope across these studies and developed a prediction model for the treatment effect on the GFR slope based on the effect on proteinuria.

RESULTS

Across all studies, treatment effects on proteinuria accurately predicted treatment effects on the total slope at 3 years (median R2 = 0.88; 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 0.06-1) and on the chronic slope (R2 = 0.98; 95% BCI, 0.29-1). For future trials, an observed treatment effect of approximately 30% reduction in proteinuria would confer probabilities of at least 90% for nonzero treatment benefits on the total and chronic slopes of eGFR. We obtained similar results for proteinuria at 9 and 12 months and total slope at 2 years.

LIMITATIONS

Study population restricted to 12 trials of small sample size, leading to wide BCIs. There was heterogeneity among trials with respect to study design and interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide new evidence supporting that early reduction in proteinuria can be used as a surrogate end point for studies of chronic kidney disease progression in IgAN.

Effect of estimating equations for glomerular filtration rate on novel surrogate markers for renal outcome

Backgrounds

Recently, alternative surrogate endpoints such as a 30% or 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or eGFR slope over 2 to 3 years have been proposed for predicting renal outcomes. However, the impact of GFR estimation methods on the accuracy and effectiveness of surrogate markers is unknown.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled participants in health screening programs at three hospitals from 1995 to 2009. We defined two different participant groups as YR1 and YR3, which had available 1-year or 3-year eGFR values along with their baseline eGFR levels. We compared the effectiveness of eGFR percentage change or slope to estimate end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk according to two estimating equations (modified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation [eGFRm] and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation [eGFRc]) for GFR.

Results

In the YR1 and YR3 groups, 9,971 and 10,171 candidates were enrolled and ESRD incidence during follow-up was 0.26% and 0.19%, respectively. The eGFR percentage change was more effective than eGFR slope in estimating ESRD risk, regardless of the method of estimation. A 40% of decline in eGFR was better than 30%, and a 3-year baseline period was better than a 1-year period for prediction accuracy. Although some diagnostic indices from the CKD-EPI equation were better, we found no significant differences in the discriminative ability and hazard ratios for incident ESRD between eGFRc and eGFRm in either eGFR percentage change or eGFR slope.

Conclusion

There were no significant differences in the prediction accuracy of GFR percentage change or eGFR slope between eGFRc and eGFRm in the general population.

Combined changes in albuminuria and kidney function and subsequent risk for kidney failure in type 2 diabetes

INTRODUCTION

Changes in albuminuria or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) can be used as a surrogate endpoint of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in people with type 2 diabetes. We investigated whether the combined changes in albuminuria and eGFR are more strongly associated with future risk of ESKD.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using data from a multicenter observational cohort study of people with type 2 diabetes, we evaluated the association of percentage change in urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) and/or annual change in eGFR over 2 years with subsequent ESKD risk.

RESULTS

Among 1417 patients with repeated albuminuria and eGFR over 2 years, 129 (9.1%) developed ESKD. Patients with >30% UACR decline had lower ESKD risk (HR 0.47; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.77), whereas those with >30% UACR increase had higher ESKD risk (HR 2.31; 95% CI 1.52 to 3.51), compared with those with minor UACR change. Patients with greater eGFR decline had an increased ESKD risk than those with minor eGFR change (a decline of <2.5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year): HR 4.19 (95% CI 1.87 to 9.38) and 2.89 (95% CI 1.32 to 6.33) for those with a decline of >5 and 2.5-5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year, respectively. When the combined changes in UACR and eGFR were used, the highest ESKD risk (HR 5.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 15.09) was observed among patients with >30% UACR increase and an eGFR decline of >5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year compared with those with a minor change in UACR and eGFR.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined changes in albuminuria and eGFR over 2 years were strongly associated with future risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Assessment of Acute Kidney Injury and Longitudinal Kidney Function After Hospital Discharge Among Patients With and Without COVID-19

Importance

Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs in up to half of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The longitudinal effects of COVID-19-associated AKI on kidney function remain unknown.

Objective

To compare the rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after hospital discharge between patients with and without COVID-19 who experienced in-hospital AKI.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at 5 hospitals in Connecticut and Rhode Island from March 10 to August 31, 2020. Patients who were tested for COVID-19 and developed AKI were screened, and those who survived past discharge, did not require dialysis within 3 days of discharge, and had at least 1 outpatient creatinine level measurement following discharge were included.

Exposures

Diagnosis of COVID-19.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mixed-effects models were used to assess the association between COVID-19-associated AKI and eGFR slope after discharge. The secondary outcome was the time to AKI recovery for the subgroup of patients whose kidney function had not returned to the baseline level by discharge.

Results

A total of 182 patients with COVID-19-associated AKI and 1430 patients with AKI not associated with COVID-19 were included. The population included 813 women (50.4%); median age was 69.7 years (interquartile range, 58.9-78.9 years). Patients with COVID-19-associated AKI were more likely to be Black (73 [40.1%] vs 225 [15.7%]) or Hispanic (40 [22%] vs 126 [8.8%]) and had fewer comorbidities than those without COVID-19 but similar rates of preexisting chronic kidney disease and hypertension. Patients with COVID-19-associated AKI had a greater decrease in eGFR in the unadjusted model (-11.3; 95% CI, -22.1 to -0.4 mL/min/1.73 m2/y; P = .04) and after adjusting for baseline comorbidities (-12.4; 95% CI, -23.7 to -1.2 mL/min/1.73 m2/y; P = .03). In the fully adjusted model controlling for comorbidities, peak creatinine level, and in-hospital dialysis requirement, the eGFR slope difference persisted (-14.0; 95% CI, -25.1 to -2.9 mL/min/1.73 m2/y; P = .01). In the subgroup of patients who had not achieved AKI recovery by discharge (n = 319), COVID-19-associated AKI was associated with decreased kidney recovery during outpatient follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.92).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of US patients who experienced in-hospital AKI, COVID-19-associated AKI was associated with a greater rate of eGFR decrease after discharge compared with AKI in patients without COVID-19, independent of underlying comorbidities or AKI severity. This eGFR trajectory may reinforce the importance of monitoring kidney function after AKI and studying interventions to limit kidney disease after COVID-19-associated AKI.

Linear Projection of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline with Canagliflozin and Implications for Dialysis Utilization and Cost in Diabetic Nephropathy

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes is a common cause of end-stage kidney disease leading to dialysis or kidney transplantation. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures kidney function, and differences in the rate (slope) of eGFR decline can be used to assess treatment effects on kidney function over time. In the CREDENCE trial, the sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin slowed the rate of eGFR decline by 60% compared to placebo in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease. This analysis utilized eGFR slopes from CREDENCE to estimate the difference in time to dialysis by treatment arm and estimated the economic value of that delay.

METHODS

A linear decline in eGFR and maintenance of stable therapy were assumed for the canagliflozin and placebo arms in CREDENCE. Mean eGFR over time was calculated using acute (baseline to week 3) and chronic (week 3 onward) slopes. Reaching eGFR of 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 was assumed to represent the need for chronic dialysis. The difference in time to dialysis between treatments was calculated. Based on the average duration of dialysis, annual dialysis costs were determined, discounting 2020 US dollars at an inflation rate of 4%.

RESULTS

Following the acute and chronic eGFR slopes, the projected time to dialysis was 22.85 years for canagliflozin and 9.90 years for placebo. Based on 95% confidence intervals from CREDENCE, the model-estimated difference in time to dialysis was 9.27-17.48 years. With a mean baseline participant age of 63 years, the delay in dialysis with canagliflozin would be associated with a reduction in dialysis costs of approximately $170,000 per patient in 2020 dollars.

CONCLUSION

Using clinical trial data, canagliflozin treatment was projected to delay dialysis by approximately 13 years, which could translate to a substantial cost savings. More precise estimates should be investigated with considerations for nonlinear eGFR slope trajectory, competing risks, and patient characteristics.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT02065791.

Machine-learning-based early prediction of end-stage renal disease in patients with diabetic kidney disease using clinical trials data

AIM

To predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 2 diabetes by using machine-learning models with multiple baseline demographic and clinical characteristics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 11 789 patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy from three clinical trials, RENAAL (n = 1513), IDNT (n = 1715) and ALTITUDE (n = 8561), were used in this study. Eighteen baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were used as predictors to train machine-learning models to predict ESRD (doubling of serum creatinine and/or ESRD). We used the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) to assess the prediction performance of models and compared this with traditional Cox proportional hazard regression and kidney failure risk equation models.

RESULTS

The feed forward neural network model predicted ESRD with an AUC of 0.82 (0.76-0.87), 0.81 (0.75-0.86) and 0.84 (0.79-0.90) in the RENAAL, IDNT and ALTITUDE trials, respectively. The feed forward neural network model selected urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, serum albumin, uric acid and serum creatinine as important predictors and obtained a state-of-the-art performance for predicting long-term ESRD.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite large inter-patient variability, non-linear machine-learning models can be used to predict long-term ESRD in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy using baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. The proposed method has the potential to create accurate and multiple outcome prediction automated models to identify high-risk patients who could benefit from therapy in clinical practice.

HLA antibodies are associated with deterioration of kidney allograft function irrespective of donor specificity

BACKGROUND

Donor-specific antibodies are associated with high immunological risk and poor allograft outcome. Risk and clinical relevance of non-donor-specific HLA antibodies is less clear.

METHODS

A retrospective single-center study was conducted in all patients receiving a first kidney transplant at the University hospital of Zürich between 01/2006 and 02/2015. Patients were stratified into 3 groups having either no HLA antibodies at all (NoAB), HLA antibodies with donor specificity (DSA) and HLA antibodies without donor specificity (NonDSA). Allograft outcome was assessed using the slope of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope) starting at 12 months after transplantation.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 1808 days HLA antibodies were detected in 106 of 238 eligible patients (44%). Out of these, 73 patients (69%) had DSA and 33 patients (31%) had NonDSA only. Medium-term allograft function, as determined by eGFR slope over three years, improved in patients with NoAB (months 12-48: +0.7 ml/min/1.73 m²) but deteriorated significantly in patients with both DSA (months 12-48: -1.5 ml/min per1.73 m²/year, p = 0.015) and NonDSA (months 12-48: -1.8 ml/min per1.73 m²/year, p = 0.03) as compared to the group with NoAB.

CONCLUSION

Both, donor-specific and non-donor-specific HLA antibodies are associated with medium-term kidney allograft dysfunction as compared to patients with no HLA antibodies.

GFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for CKD progression in clinical trials

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

There is a paucity of therapies for chronic kidney disease (CKD), in part because of the slow nature of the disease which poses challenges in selection of endpoints in randomized controlled trials (RCT). There is increasing evidence for the use of glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-based endpoints either as percentage decline using time-to-event analyses, or as difference in slope between treatment arms. We reviewed the rationale for using surrogate endpoints and optimal methods for their evaluation prior to their use and evidence for GFR-based endpoints and particularly GFR slope as validated surrogate endpoints and considerations for their use in RCTs.

RECENT FINDINGS

In an individual patient meta-analysis of 47 studies (60 620 participants), treatment effects on the clinical endpoint were accurately predicted from treatment effects on 3-year total slope [median R = 0.97 (95% Bayesian confidence interval (BCI), 0.78-1.00] and on the chronic slope [R = 0.96 (95% BCI, 0.63-1.00)]. In a simulation study, GFR slope substantially reduced the required sample size and duration of follow-up compared to the clinical endpoint given high baseline GFR and absence of acute treatment effect. In the presence of acute effect, results were more complicated.

SUMMARY

GFR decline is accepted, and GFR slope is being considered, by regulatory authorities as a validated surrogate endpoint for CKD RCTs.

Multifactorial intervention has a significant effect on diabetic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

To evaluate the effect of multifactorial intervention on the onset and progression of diabetic kidney disease in the patients with type 2 diabetes, we analyzed the effects of intensified multifactorial intervention by step-wise intensification of medications and life-style modifications (intensive therapy treatment targets; HbA1c under 6.2%, blood pressure under 120/75 mmHg, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol under 80 mg/dL) comparing with the guideline-based standard care (conventional therapy treatment targets: HbA1c under 6.9%, blood pressure under 130/80 mmHg, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol under 120 mg/dL) on diabetic kidney disease. A total of 2540 eligible patients in the Japan Diabetes Optimal Integrated Treatment for three major risk factors of cardiovascular diseases (J-DOIT3) cohort were randomly assigned to intensive therapy (1269) and conventional therapy (1271) and treated for a median of 8.5 years. The prespecified kidney outcome measure was a composite of progression from normoalbuminuria to microalbuminuria or progression from normoalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria or progression from microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria, serum creatinine levels elevated by two-fold or more compared to baseline, or kidney failure. Primary analysis was carried out on the intention-to-treat population. Changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria were also analyzed. A total of 438 kidney events occurred (181 in the intensive therapy group and 257 in the conventional therapy group). Intensive therapy was associated with a significant 32% reduction in kidney events compared to conventional therapy and was associated with a change in HbA1c at one year from study initiation. Thus, prespecified analysis shows that intensified multifactorial intervention significantly reduced the onset and progression of diabetic kidney disease compared to currently recommended care.

Impact of CKD Progression on Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Contemporary UK Cohort of Individuals With Diabetes

Introduction

It remains unclear whether an increased progression rate of chronic kidney disease (CKD) adds predictive information regarding cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between CKD progression, based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope estimates and the risk for CVD.

Methods

We compared the updated eGFR slope calculated over multiple overlapping 2-year periods and the updated mean eGFR. Incident CKD subjects were selected from a prevalent population with diabetes (T2DM). Subjects from the UK Clinical Practice Research Data Link GOLD (CPRD) were followed from CKD diagnosis (n = 30,222) until heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke (IS), or a composite end point including all 3 event types (MACE plus), mortality, database dropout, or end of study follow-up.

Results

Both the updated eGFR slope and updated mean eGFR were associated with MACE plus and HF. Updated eGFR slope decline of > –3 ml/min/1.73 m² increased the risk for MACE plus (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26–1.67), HF (HR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.27–1.76), and MI (HR = 1.39; 95% CI, 1.01–1.91).

Conclusions

This study strongly supports current evidence that CKD is an independent risk factor for CVD. From a clinical perspective, both rate of progression and cumulative status of CKD describe distinct aspects of the cardiorenal risk among persons with diabetes. This evidence is essential to enable more timely and improved use of treatments in this population.

Association of immigration background with kidney graft function in a publicly funded health system: a nationwide retrospective cohort study in Italy

The impact of immigration background on kidney graft function (eGFR) is unknown. Italy has a publicly funded health system with universal coverage. Since immigration from non-European Union (EU) countries beyond Eastern Europe is a recent and extensive phenomenon, Italy is a rather unique setting for studying the effect of immigration status as a socioeconomic and cultural condition. We retrospectively identified all adult deceased donor kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) in Italy (2010-2015) and followed them until death, dialysis or 5-years post-transplantation; 6346 were EU-born, 161 Eastern European-born, and 490 non-European-born. We examined changes in eGFR after 1-year post-transplant using multivariable-adjusted joint longitudinal survival random-intercept Cox regression. Compared to EU-born KTRs, in non-European-born KTRs the adjusted average yearly eGFR decline was -0.96 ml/min/year (95% confidence interval: -1.48 to -0.45; P < 0.001), whereas it was similar in Eastern European-born KTRs [+0.02 ml/min/year (-0.77 to +0.81; P = 0.96)]. Adjusted 5-year transplant survival did not statistically differ between non-European-born, Eastern European-born, and EU-born. In those surviving beyond 1-year, it was 91.8% in EU-born (87.1-96.8), 92.5% in Eastern European-born (86.1-99.4), and 89.3% in non-European-born KTRs (83.0-96.0). This study provides evidence that among EU KTRs, non-European immigration background is associated with eGFR decline.

Initial Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline and Long-Term Renal Function During Intensive Antihypertensive Therapy: A Post Hoc Analysis of the SPRINT and ACCORD-BP Randomized Controlled Trials

Lowering blood pressure (BP) can lead to an initial decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). However, there is debate how much eGFR decline is acceptable. We performed a post hoc analysis of ACCORD-BP (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes-Blood Pressure) and SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), which randomized patients to intensive or standard systolic BP-targets. We determined the relation between initial decline in mean arterial pressure and eGFR. Subsequently, we stratified patients to BP-target and initial eGFR decrease and assessed the relation with annual eGFR decline after 1 year. A total of 13 266 patients with 41 126 eGFR measurements were analyzed. Up to 10 mm Hg of BP-lowering, eGFR did not change. Hereafter, there was a linear decrease of 3.4% eGFR (95% CI, 2.9%-3.9%) per 10 mm Hg mean arterial pressure decrease. The observed eGFR decline based on 95% of the subjects varied from 26% after 0 mm Hg to 46% with a 40 mm Hg mean arterial pressure decrease. There was no difference in eGFR slope (P=0.37) according to initial eGFR decline and BP-target, with a decrease of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.09-1.39), 1.20 (95% CI, 0.97-1.43), and 1.14 (95% CI, 0.77-1.50) in the 5%, 5% to 20%, and >20% stratum during intensive and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.81-1.09), 1.23 (95% CI, 0.97-1.49), and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.65-1.69) mL/minute per 1.73 m2 per year during standard treatment. In patients at high cardiovascular risk with and without diabetes mellitus, we found no association between initial eGFR and annual eGFR decline during BP-lowering treatment. Our results support that an eGFR decrease up to 20% after BP lowering can be accepted and suggest that the limit can be extended up to 46% depending on the achieved BP reduction. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00000620, NCT01206062.

Effect of Vitamin D and Omega-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Kidney Function in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common complication of type 2 diabetes that can lead to end-stage kidney disease and is associated with high cardiovascular risk. Few treatments are available to prevent CKD in type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To test whether supplementation with vitamin D3 or omega-3 fatty acids prevents development or progression of CKD in type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized clinical trial with a 2 × 2 factorial design conducted among 1312 adults with type 2 diabetes recruited between November 2011 and March 2014 from all 50 US states as an ancillary study to the Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial (VITAL), coordinated by a single center in Massachusetts. Follow-up was completed in December 2017.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomized to receive vitamin D3 (2000 IU/d) and omega-3 fatty acids (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid; 1 g/d) (n = 370), vitamin D3 and placebo (n = 333), placebo and omega-3 fatty acids (n = 289), or 2 placebos (n = 320) for 5 years.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was change in glomerular filtration rate estimated from serum creatinine and cystatin C (eGFR) from baseline to year 5.

RESULTS

Among 1312 participants randomized (mean age, 67.6 years; 46% women; 31% of racial or ethnic minority), 934 (71%) completed the study. Baseline mean eGFR was 85.8 (SD, 22.1) mL/min/1.73 m2. Mean change in eGFR from baseline to year 5 was -12.3 (95% CI, -13.4 to -11.2) mL/min/1.73 m2 with vitamin D3 vs -13.1 (95% CI, -14.2 to -11.9) mL/min/1.73 m2 with placebo (difference, 0.9 [95% CI, -0.7 to 2.5] mL/min/1.73 m2). Mean change in eGFR was -12.2 (95% CI, -13.3 to -11.1) mL/min/1.73 m2 with omega-3 fatty acids vs -13.1 (95% CI, -14.2 to -12.0) mL/min/1.73 m2 with placebo (difference, 0.9 [95% CI, -0.7 to 2.6] mL/min/1.73 m2). There was no significant interaction between the 2 interventions. Kidney stones occurred among 58 participants (n = 32 receiving vitamin D3 and n = 26 receiving placebo) and gastrointestinal bleeding among 45 (n = 28 receiving omega-3 fatty acids and n = 17 receiving placebo).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among adults with type 2 diabetes, supplementation with vitamin D3 or omega-3 fatty acids, compared with placebo, resulted in no significant difference in change in eGFR at 5 years. The findings do not support the use of vitamin D or omega-3 fatty acid supplementation for preserving kidney function in patients with type 2 diabetes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01684722.

Change in Albuminuria and GFR as End Points for Clinical Trials in Early Stages of CKD: A Scientific Workshop Sponsored by the National Kidney Foundation in Collaboration With the US Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) are currently willing to consider a 30% to 40% glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline as a surrogate end point for kidney failure for clinical trials of kidney disease progression under appropriate conditions. However, these end points may not be practical for early stages of kidney disease. In March 2018, the National Kidney Foundation sponsored a scientific workshop in collaboration with the FDA and EMA to evaluate changes in albuminuria or GFR as candidate surrogate end points. Three parallel efforts were presented: meta-analyses of observational studies (cohorts), meta-analyses of clinical trials, and simulations of trial design. In cohorts, after accounting for measurement error, relationships between change in urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) or estimated GFR (eGFR) slope and the clinical outcome of kidney disease progression were strong and consistent. In trials, the posterior median R² of treatment effects on the candidate surrogates with the clinical outcome was 0.47 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 0.02-0.96) for early change in UACR and 0.72 (95% BCI, 0.05-0.99) when restricted to baseline UACR>30mg/g, and 0.97 (95% BCI, 0.78-1.00) for total eGFR slope at 3 years and 0.96 (95% BCI, 0.63-1.00) for chronic eGFR slope (ie, the slope excluding the first 3 months from baseline, when there might be acute changes in eGFR). The magnitude of the relationships of changes in the candidate surrogates with risk for clinical outcome was consistent across cohorts and trials: a UACR reduction of 30% or eGFR slope reduction by 0.5 to 1.0mL/min/1.73m² per year were associated with an HR of ∼0.7 for the clinical outcome in cohorts and trials. In simulations, using GFR slope as an end point substantially reduced the required sample size and duration of follow-up compared with the clinical end point when baseline eGFR was high, treatment effects were uniform, and there was no acute effect of the treatment. We conclude that both early change in albuminuria and GFR slope fulfill criteria for surrogacy for use as end points in clinical trials for chronic kidney disease progression under certain conditions, with stronger support for change in GFR than albuminuria. Implementation requires understanding conditions under which each surrogate is likely to perform well and restricting its use to those settings.

Evaluating Glomerular Filtration Rate Slope as a Surrogate End Point for ESKD in Clinical Trials: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis of Observational Data

BACKGROUND

Decline in eGFR is a biologically plausible surrogate end point for the progression of CKD in clinical trials. However, it must first be tested to ensure strong associations with clinical outcomes in diverse populations, including patients with higher eGFR.

METHODS

To investigate the association between 1-, 2-, and 3-year changes in eGFR (slope) with clinical outcomes over the long term, we conducted a random effects meta-analysis of 3,758,551 participants with baseline eGFR≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m² and 122,664 participants with eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m² from 14 cohorts followed for an average of 4.2 years.

RESULTS

Slower eGFR decline by 0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m² per year over 2 years was associated with lower risk of ESKD in participants with baseline eGFR≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m² (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.72) and eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m² (0.71; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.74). The relationship was stronger with 3-year slope. For a rapidly progressing population with predicted 5-year risk of ESKD of 8.3%, an intervention that reduced eGFR decline by 0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m² per year over 2 years would reduce the ESKD risk by 1.6%. For a hypothetical low-risk population with a predicted 5-year ESKD risk of 0.58%, the same intervention would reduce the risk by only 0.13%.

CONCLUSIONS

Slower decline in eGFR was associated with lower risk of subsequent ESKD, even in participants with eGFR≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m², but those with the highest risk would be expected to benefit the most.

GFR Slope as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Disease Progression in Clinical Trials: A Meta-Analysis of Treatment Effects of Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

Surrogate end points are needed to assess whether treatments are effective in the early stages of CKD. GFR decline leads to kidney failure, but regulators have not approved using differences in the change in GFR from the beginning to the end of a randomized, controlled trial as an end point in CKD because it is not clear whether small changes in the GFR slope will translate to clinical benefits.

METHODS

To assess the use of GFR slope as a surrogate end point for CKD progression, we performed a meta-analysis of 47 RCTs that tested 12 interventions in 60,620 subjects. We estimated treatment effects on GFR slope (mean difference in GFR slope between the randomized groups), for the total slope starting at baseline, chronic slope starting at 3 months after randomization, and on the clinical end point (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m², or ESKD) for each study. We used Bayesian mixed-effects analyses to describe the association of treatment effects on GFR slope with the clinical end point and to test how well the GFR slope predicts a treatment's effect on the clinical end point.

RESULTS

Across all studies, the treatment effect on 3-year total GFR slope (median R ²=0.97; 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 0.78 to 1.00) and on the chronic slope (R ² 0.96; 95% BCI, 0.63 to 1.00) accurately predicted treatment effects on the clinical end point. With a sufficient sample size, a treatment effect of 0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m²/yr or greater on total slope over 3 years or chronic slope predicts a clinical benefit on CKD progress with at least 96% probability.

CONCLUSIONS

With large enough sample sizes, GFR slope may be a viable surrogate for clinical end points in CKD RCTs.