Prognostic value of enzymatic liver function for the estimation of short-term survival of liver transplant candidates: a prospective study with the LiMAx test

LiMAx has been recently proposed as a new quantitative liver function test. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic ability of LiMAx to assess short-term survival in liver transplant candidates and compare its performance to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate (ICG-PDR). Liver function of 167 chronic liver failure patients without hepatocellular carcinoma was prospectively investigated when they were evaluated for liver transplantation. Primary study endpoints were liver-related death within 6 months of follow-up. Within 6 months of follow-up, 18 patients died and 36 underwent liver transplantation. Median LiMAx results on evaluation day were significantly lower in patients who died (99 μg/kg/h vs. 55 μg/kg/h; P = 0.024), while median ICG-PDR results did not differ within both groups (4.4%/min vs. 3.5%/min; P = 0.159). LiMAx showed a higher negative predictive value (NPV: 0.93) as compared with ICG-PDR (NPV: 0.90) and the MELD (NPV: 0.91) in predicting risk of death within 6 months. In conclusion, LiMAx provides good prognostic information of liver transplant candidates. In particular, patients who are not at risk of death can be identified reliably by measuring actual enzymatic liver function capacity.

Clinical relevance of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis

The most commonly recognized complications in cirrhotic patients include ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, susceptibility for infections, kidney dysfunction, and hepatocellular carcinoma; however, severe muscle wasting or sarcopenia are the most common and frequently unseen complications which negatively impact survival, quality of life, and response to stressor, such as infections and surgeries. At present, D'Amico stage classification, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores constitute the best tools to predict mortality in patients with cirrhosis; however, one of their main limitations is the lack of assessing the nutritional and functional status. Currently, numerous methods are available to evaluate the nutrition status of the cirrhotic patient; nevertheless, most of these techniques have limitations primarily because lack of objectivity, reproducibility, and prognosis discrimination. In this regard, an objective and reproducible technique, such as muscle mass quantification with cross-sectional imaging studies (computed tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging) constitute an attractive index of nutritional status in cirrhosis. Sarcopenia is part of the frailty complex present in cirrhotic patients, resulting from cumulative declines across multiple physiologic systems and characterized by impaired functional capacity, decreased reserve, resistance to stressors, and predisposition to poor outcomes. In this review, we discuss the current accepted and new methods to evaluate prognosis in cirrhosis. Also, we analyze the current knowledge regarding incidence and clinical impact of malnutrition and sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis and their impact after liver transplantation. Finally, we discuss existing and potential novel therapeutic approaches for malnutrition in cirrhosis, emphasizing the recognition of sarcopenia in an effort to reduced morbidity related and improved survival in cirrhosis.

The association between exposure to aflatoxin, mutation in TP53, infection with hepatitis B virus, and occurrence of liver disease in a selected population in Hyderabad, India

Aflatoxin B1 is a carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus and a few related fungi that are often present in many food substances. It interacts synergistically with Hepatitis B or C virus (HBV, HBC) infection, thereby increasing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The G to T transversion at the third position of codon 249 (AGG) of the TP53 gene, substituting arginine to serine, is the most common aflatoxin-induced mutation linked to HCC. This study examined mutations in TP53 by PCR-RFLP analysis and by measurement of an aflatoxin-albumin adduct as a biomarker for human exposure of aflatoxin B1 by indirect-competitive ELISA, in samples collected from healthy controls as well as patients with hepatitis in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. A total of 238 blood samples were analyzed the presence of the G to T mutation. Eighteen of these samples were from HBV-positive subjects, 112 of these were from subjects who had HBV-induced liver cirrhosis, and 108 samples were taken from subjects without HBV infection or liver cirrhosis (control group). The G to T mutation was detected in 10 samples, 8 of which were from subjects positive to both HBV and aflatoxin-albumin adduct in blood (p=0.07); whilst two were from individuals who were HBV-negative, but positive for the aflatoxin-albumin adduct (p=0.14). The aflatoxin-albumin adduct was detected in 37 of 238 samples, 29 samples were from HBV-positive subjects and eight were from individuals who were positive for both HBV and the TP53 mutation (p=0.07). The concentration of aflatoxin-albumin adduct ranged from 2.5 to 667pg/mg albumin. Despite low incidence of the G to T mutation, its detection in subjects positive to aflatoxin-adducts is indicative of a strong association between the mutation and aflatoxin exposure in India.

A survey of perceptions and practices of complementary alternative medicine among Canadian gastroenterologists

BACKGROUND

Despite a high prevalence of complementary alternative medicine (CAM) use among inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients, there is a dearth of information about the attitudes and perceptions of CAM among the gastroenterologists who treat these patients.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the beliefs, perceptions and practices of gastroenterologists toward CAM use in patients with IBD.

METHODS

A web-based survey was sent to member gastroenterologists of the Canadian Association of Gastroenterology. The survey included multiple-choice and Likert scale questions that queried physician knowledge and perceptions of CAM and their willingness to discuss CAM with patients.

RESULTS

Fifty-three per cent of respondents considered themselves to be IBD subspecialists. The majority (86%) of gastroenterologists reported that less than one-half of their patient population had mentioned the use of CAM. Only 8% of physicians reported initiating a conversation about CAM in the majority of their patient encounters. Approximately one-half (51%) of respondents were comfortable with discussing CAM with their patients, with lack of knowledge being cited as the most common reason for discomfort with the topic. Most gastroenterologists (79%) reported no formal education in CAM. While there was uncertainty as to whether CAM interfered with conventional medications, most gastroenterologists believed it could be effective as an adjunct treatment.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that gastroenterologists were hesitant to initiate discussions about CAM with patients. Nearly one-half were uncomfortable or only somewhat comfortable with the topic, and most may benefit from CAM educational programs. Interestingly, most respondents appeared to be receptive to CAM as adjunct therapy alongside conventional IBD treatment.

Characteristics of alcoholic liver disease and predictive factors for mortality of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic liver disease is one of the major chronic liver diseases worldwide. The aim of the study was to describe the clinical characteristics of alcoholic liver disease and to compare the predictive values of biochemical parameters, complications, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and discriminant function score for the mortality of in-hospital or 3-month after discharge of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis (AC).

METHODS

A retrospective record review and statistical analysis were performed on 205 consecutive patients with the discharge diagnosis of alcoholic liver disease. Three models were used to predict the mortality of patients with AC. The number of variceal hemorrhage, infection, hepatic encephalopathy and hepatocellular carcinoma was analyzed as "numbers of complications". Model 1 consisted of creatinine, white blood cell count, international normalized ratio and "numbers of complications". Model 2 consisted of MELD score. Model 3 included "numbers of complications" and MELD score.

RESULTS

The risk of developing AC was significant for patients with alcohol consumption of higher than 80 g/d (OR=2.807, P<0.050) and drinking duration of longer than 10 years (OR=3.429, P<0.028). The area under curve for predicting in-hospital mortality of models 1, 2 and 3 was 0.950, 0.886 and 0.911 (all P<0.001), respectively. The area under curve for predicting the 3-month mortality of models 1, 2 and 3 was 0.867, 0.878 and 0.893 (all P<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a dose-dependent relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of developing AC. MELD score has a better predictive value than Child-Turcotte-Pugh or discriminant function score for patients with AC, and model 1 or 3 is better than model 2.

A revised scope in different prognostic models in cirrhotic patients: Current and future perspectives, an Egyptian experience

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM

The prognosis of cirrhosis is of great interest for liver transplantation and new therapies of related complications. Traditional prognostic models such as Child-Pugh (CP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) were developed to predict mortality in decompensated cirrhosis, but lack parameter(s) related to complications. Recently, new models such as creatinine-modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CrCTP) and sodium-based MELD variants were developed to improve prognostic accuracy and enhance outcome predictive capability. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic ability of these models and their relation to complications among Egyptian cirrhotic patients to determine the best one and to assess adding new variables to improve the prognostic ability of that model.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 1000 cirrhotic patients were enrolled in a retrospective study; traditional and new prognostic models such as CP, MELD, CrCTP, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD plus sodium (MELD-Na, MELDNa) and MELD:sodium ratio (MESO) were calculated. The predictive abilities of prognostic models were compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and 1-year survival rates were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. An index of cirrhosis-related complications was added to reveal the best prognostic model.

RESULTS

Using AUC, MELD and its sodium variants was significantly better than CP and CrCTP scores in predicting risk of 1-year mortality, where MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) had the highest AUC (0.743). Adding an index of cirrhosis-related complications (C) to MELD-Na creating a new scoring system (MELD-Na-C) improved its prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.753). Kaplan-Meier survival curves predicted increased mortality with higher prognostic scores.

CONCLUSIONS

All prognostic models were good predictors of 1-year mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis; however, MELD-Na was the best for outcome prediction. MELD-Na-C was a new model enhancing the predictive accuracy in assessing cirrhotic patients with related complications.

Alkaline phosphatase: the next independent predictor of the poor 90-day outcome in alcoholic hepatitis

AIM

Determination of risk factors relevant to 90-day prognosis in AH. Comparison of the conventional prognostic models such as Maddrey's modified discriminant function (mDF) and Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) score with newer ones: the Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-Na in the death prediction.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical and laboratory variables obtained at admission were assessed. The mDF, CPT, GAHS, ABIC, MELD, and MELD-Na scores' different areas under the curve (AUCs) and the best threshold values were compared. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of the 90-day outcome.

RESULTS

One hundred sixteen pts fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Twenty (17.4%) pts died and one underwent orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) within 90 days of follow-up. No statistically significant differences in the models' performances were found. Multivariate logistic regression identified CPT score, alkaline phosphatase (AP) level higher than 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), and corticosteroids (CS) nonresponse as independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The CPT score, AP > 1.5 ULN, and the CS nonresponse had an independent impact on the 90-day survival in AH. Accuracy of all studied scoring systems was comparable.

Acute phase proteins for the diagnosis of bacterial infection and prediction of mortality in acute complications of cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Bacterial infection is a frequent complication in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis and is related to high mortality rates during follow-up of these individuals. We sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) in diagnosing infection and to investigate the relationship between these biomarkers and mortality after hospital admission.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Prospective study that included cirrhotic patients admitted to the hospital due to complications of the disease. The diagnostic accuracy of CRP and PCT for the diagnosis of infection was evaluated by estimating the sensitivity and specificity and by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

A total of 64 patients and 81 hospitalizations were analyzed during the study. The mean age was 54.31 ± 11.87 years with male predominance (68.8%). Significantly higher median CRP and PCT levels were observed among infected patients (P < 0.001). The AUROC of CRP and PCT for the diagnosis of infection were 0.835 ± 0.052 and 0.860 ± 0.047, respectively (P = 0.273). CRP levels > 29.5 exhibited sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 81% for the diagnosis of bacterial infection. Similarly, PCT levels > 1.10 showed sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 90%. Significantly higher levels of CRP (P = 0.026) and PCT (P = 0.001) were observed among those who died within three months after admission.

CONCLUSION

CRP and PCT were reliable markers of bacterial infection in subjects admitted due to complications of liver cirrhosis and higher levels of these tests are related to short-term mortality in those patients.

Important predictor of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease

Prognosis is an essential part of the baseline assessment of any disease. For predicting prognosis of end-stage liver disease, many prognostic models were proposed. Child-Pugh score has been the reference for assessing the prognosis of cirrhosis for about three decades in end-stage liver disease. Despite of several limitations, recent large systematic review showed that Child-Pugh score was still robust predictors and it's components (bilirubin, albumin and prothrombin time) were followed by Child-Pugh score. Recently, Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score emerged as a "modern" alternative to Child-Pugh score. The MELD score has been an important role to accurately predict the severity of liver disease and effectively assess the risk of mortality. Due to several weakness of MELD score, new modified MELD scores (MELD-Na, Delta MELD) have been developed and validated. This review summarizes the current knowledge about the prognostic factors in end-stage liver disease, focusing on the role of Child-Pugh and MELD score.

Older patient age may predict early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation in individuals at intermediate risk

PURPOSE

To identify prognostic factors for early mortality among patients with intermediate-risk Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this single-institution retrospective study, 47 patients (31 men; mean age, 54 y) with intermediate MELD scores (ie, 18-25) underwent TIPS creation between 1999 and 2012. Medical records were reviewed to identify demographic (age, sex), liver disease (Child-Pugh, MELD), and procedure data (indication, urgency, stent type, portosystemic pressure gradient reduction, complications), and the influence of these parameters on 90-day mortality was assessed by multivariate binary logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

TIPSs were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 24), ascites (n = 17), hydrothorax (n = 5), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Hemodynamic success rate was 94% (44 of 47), and mean portosystemic pressure gradient reduction was 13 mm Hg. The 90-day mortality rate was 36% (17 of 47). Patient age (P = .026) was significantly associated with 90-day mortality. Mean ages of living versus dead patients were 51 and 60 years, and mortality rates in patients aged 54 years or younger versus 55 years or older were 21% (five of 24) and 52% (12 of 23), respectively. There was no difference in MELD scores between these age groups (20.6 vs 21.0; P = .600), and MELD score was not a predictive factor on regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Age is a prognostic factor for early mortality in TIPS recipients with intermediate MELD scores. Mortality rates are higher in patients at least 55 years of age, but MELD score does not predict survival in this subset. Age should be contemplated when selecting patients at intermediate risk for TIPS creation.

A case-control study of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunts for patients admitted to intensive care following variceal bleeding

INTRODUCTION

Variceal bleeding has a 6-week mortality of 20%. Recent evidence suggests that early covered transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunts (TIPSS) can improve outcomes following a variceal bleed in selected patients. We aim to assess the outcomes following the insertion of covered TIPSS in a real-life intensive care setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective matched cohort study of all patients referred for TIPSS with variceal bleeding admitted to intensive care (2007-2009). Patients were matched with others admitted to intensive therapy unit following a variceal bleed but did not proceed to TIPSS. All TIPSS procedures were carried out using polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stents.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight patients [mean age 55.2 years; mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)=14.0; and median follow-up 458 days] were assessed. Nineteen underwent TIPSS and were well matched to the controls. All patients received terlipressin and antibiotics and 86% had active bleeding at endoscopy. Indication for TIPSS was salvage therapy (47%), rebleeding after day 5 (11%) and as secondary prophylaxis (42%). There was 34% all-cause inpatient mortality. The TIPSS group had lower mortality than the non-TIPSS group at 6 weeks (10.5 vs. 47.4%, P<0.05) that persisted at 1 year (21.1 vs. 52.6%, P<0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated MELD [HR 1.131, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.018-1.257] and TIPSS (HR 0.301, 95% CI 0.091-0.995) as significant predictors of mortality (P<0.05). TIPSS was found to significantly reduce the incidence of failure to control bleeding and rebleeding (HR 0.120, 95% CI 0.015-0.978, P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Patients with recent severe variceal bleeding admitted to intensive care have significantly better outcomes following covered TIPSS insertion. These findings should be validated in randomized-controlled trials.

Prognostic capability of different liver disease scoring systems for prediction of early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation

PURPOSE

To compare the performance of various liver disease scoring systems in predicting early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this single-institution retrospective study, eight scoring systems were used to grade liver disease in 211 patients (male-to-female ratio = 131:80; mean age, 54 y) before TIPS creation from 1999-2011. Scoring systems included bilirubin level, Child-Pugh (CP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score, Emory score, prognostic index (PI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) 2 score, and Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score. Medical record review was used to identify 30-day and 90-day clinical outcomes. The relationship of scoring parameters with mortality outcomes was assessed with multivariate analysis, and the relative ability of systems to predict mortality after TIPS creation was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

TIPS were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 121), ascites (n = 72), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 15), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 3). All scoring systems had a significant association with 30-day and 90-day mortality (P<.050 in each case) on multivariate analysis. Based on 30-day and 90-day AUROC, MELD (0.878, 0.816) and MELD-Na (0.863, 0.823) scores had the best capability to predict early mortality compared with bilirubin (0.786, 0.749), CP (0.822, 0.771), Emory (0.786, 0.681), PI (0.854, 0.760), APACHE 2 (0.836, 0.735), and BOTEM (0.798, 0.698), with statistical superiority over bilirubin, Emory, and BOTEM scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Several liver disease scoring systems have prognostic value for early mortality after TIPS creation. MELD and MELD-Na scores most effectively predict survival after TIPS creation.

Child-Na score: a predictive model for survival in cirrhotic patients with symptomatic portal hypertension treated with TIPS

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Several models have been developed to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS; however, few of these models have gained widespread acceptance, especially in the era of covered stents. The aim of this study was to establish an evidence-based model for predicting survival after TIPS procedures.

METHODS

A total of 210 patients with cirrhosis treated with TIPS were considered in the study. We comprehensively investigated factors associated with one-year survival and developed a new predictive model using the Cox regression model.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, the Child-Pugh score and serum sodium levels were independent predictors of one-year survival. A new score incorporating serum sodium into the Child-Pugh score was developed: Child-Na score. We compared the predictive accuracy of Child-Na score with that of other scores; only the Child-Na and MELD-Na scores had adequate predictive ability in patients with serum Na levels <138 mmol/L. The best Child-Na cut-off score (15.5) differentiated two groups of patients with distinct prognoses (one-year cumulative survival rates of 80.6% and 45.5%); this finding was confirmed in a validation cohort (n = 86). In a subgroup analysis stratifying patients by indication for TIPS, the Child-Na score distinguished patients with different prognoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with variceal bleeding and a Child-Na score ≤15 had a better prognosis than patients with a score ≥16. Patients with refractory ascites and a Child-Na score ≥16 had a high risk of death after the TIPS procedures; caution should be used when treating these patients with TIPS.

Mortality and complications in patients with portal hypertension who underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) - 12 years experience

CONTEXT

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the non-surgical treatment option with low level of morbi-mortality and possibility of accomplishment in patients with severe hepatic dysfunction which aims at decompressing the portal system treating or reducing the portal hypertension complications.

OBJECTIVE

Outline the profile analyze global and early mortality, and the complications presented by cirrhotic patients who underwent TIPS for treatment of digestive hemorrhage by portal hypertension.

METHOD

Retrospective study based on the data bank of cirrhotic patients' medical reports, who underwent TIPS for digestive hemorrhage by portal hypertension treatment who did not respond to clinical endoscopic treatment, and were assisted from 1998 to 2010 in the Liver Transplant Service at a university hospital. The study was approved by the Committee of Ethics and Research.

RESULTS

The sample was comprised of 72 (84.7%) patients, being 57 (79.2%) males, average age 47.7 years (age range from 16 to 85 years and SD = 13), 21 (29.2%) patients presented liver disease as cause excessive intake of alcoholic drinks; 21 (29.2%) contamination by hepatitis virus, 16 (22.2%) excessive alcohol intake associated with virus and 14 (19.4%) patients presented other causes. As for initial classification, 14 (20%) had Child-Pugh A, 33 (47.1%) Child-Pugh B and 23 (32.9%) Child-Pugh C. Initial MELD was obtained in 68 patients being 37 (54.4%) higher than 15 points while 31 (45.6%) had up to 15 points. Early death occurred in 19 (26.4%). Global mortality occurred in 41 (60.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality is directly related to clinical factors of patients, being Child-Pugh and MELD classifications predictors of mortality, with more impact in patients with Child-Pugh class C and MELD > 15. The complications found were similar to those described in the literature, although the dysfunction by stent stenosis (26.4%) was lower than in the most of the studies and the encephalopathy incidence (58.3%) was higher. Probably, the high incidence of encephalopathy is explained by the low incidence of stenosis.

Systematic review of noncancer presentations with a median survival of 6 months or less

PURPOSE

We report on clinical indicators of 6-month mortality in advanced noncancer illnesses and the effect of treatment on survival.

METHODS

The MEDLINE database was searched comprehensively to find studies evaluating survival for common advanced noncancer illnesses. We retrieved and evaluated studies that reported a median survival of ≤1 year and evaluated prognostic factors or effect of treatment on survival. We extracted data on presentations with median survivals of ≤6 months for heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, geriatric failure to thrive, cirrhosis, and end-stage renal failure. Independent risk factors for survival were combined and included if their combination was associated with a 6-month mortality of ≥50%.

RESULTS

The search identified 1000 potentially relevant studies, of which 475 were retrieved and evaluated, and 74 were included. We report the common clinical presentations that are consistently associated with a 6-month median survival. Even though advanced noncancer syndromes differ clinically, a universal set of prognostic factors signals progression to terminal disease, including poor performance status, advanced age, malnutrition, comorbid illness, organ dysfunction, and hospitalization for acute decompensation. Generally, a 6-month median survival is associated with the presence of 2-4 of these factors. With few exceptions, these terminal presentations are quite refractory to treatment.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review summarizes prognostic factors common to advanced noncancer illness. There is little evidence at present that treatment prolongs survival at these terminal stages.

A prediction model for COPD readmissions: catching up, catching our breath, and improving a national problem

Frequent COPD exacerbations have a large impact on morbidity, mortality and health-care expenditures. By 2020, the World Health Organization expects COPD and COPD exacerbations to be the third leading cause of death world-wide. Furthermore, In 2005 it was estimated that COPD exacerbations cost the U.S. health-care system 38 billion dollars. Studies attempting to determine factors related to COPD readmissions are still very limited. Moreover, few have used a organized machine-learning, sensitivity analysis approach, such as a Random Forest (RF) statistical model, to analyze this problem. This study utilized the RF machine learning algorithm to determine factors that predict risk for multiple COPD exacerbations in a single year. This was a retrospective study with a data set of 106 patients. These patients were divided randomly into training (80%) and validating (20%) data-sets, 100 times, using approximately sixty variables intially, which in prior studies had been found to be associated with patient readmission for COPD exacerbation. In an interactive manner, an RF model was created using the training set and validated on the testing dataset. Mean area-under-curve (AUC) statistics, sensitivity, specificity, and negative/positive predictive values (NPV, PPV) were calculated for the 100 runs. THE FOLLOWING VARIABLES WERE FOUND TO BE IMPORTANT PREDICTORS OF PATIENTS HAVING AT LEAST TWO COPD EXACERBATIONS WITHIN ONE YEAR: employment, body mass index, number of previous surgeries, administration of azithromycin/ceftriaxone/moxifloxacin, and admission albumin level. The mean AUC was 0.72, sensitivity of 0.75, specificity of 0.56, PPV of 0.7 and NPV of 0.63. Histograms were used to confirm consistent accuracy. The RF design has consistently demonstrated encouraging results. We expect to validate our results on new patient groups and improve accuracy by increasing our training dataset. We hope that identifying patients at risk for frequent readmissions will improve patient outcome and save valuable hospital resources.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio associated with mortality in early hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Increasing evidence correlates the presence of systemic inflammation with poor survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We studied whether peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a marker of systemic inflammatory response, would be a useful predictor for outcome in patients with early HCC undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

METHODS

A total of 158 patients with early HCC underwent RFA. Potential prognostic factors such as age, gender, tumoral characteristics, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class and NLR were analyzed. The study endpoints were overall survival (OS) and new recurrence.

RESULTS

We modeled NLR as a continuous explanatory variable in regression analyses. Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor size (P = 0.005) and high baseline NLR (P = 0.001) were independent explanatory variables associated with unfavorable OS. Regarding new recurrence, multivariate analysis showed that CTP class B (P = 0.002), α-fetoprotein > 400 ng/mL (P = 0.030), tumor size (P = 0.002) and tumor multiplicity (P = 0.013) were found to be worse prognosticators, but not baseline NLR. In a subset analysis of 140 patients whose post-RFA NLR data at first follow-up visit were available, multivariate analysis revealed that high post-RFA NLR was identified as an independent covariate, not only for OS (P = 0.006), but for new recurrence (P = 0.010) as well.

CONCLUSIONS

High baseline NLR was associated with worse OS for patients with early HCC; post-RFA NLR predicted not only OS, but also tumor recurrence.

Transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt in the elderly: Palliation for complications of portal hypertension

AIM

To present a dedicated series of transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunts (TIPS) in the elderly since data is sparse on this population group.

METHODS

A retrospective review was performed of patients at least 65 years of age who underwent TIPS at our institutions between 1997 and 2010. Twenty-five patients were referred for TIPS. We deemed that 2 patients were not considered appropriate candidates due to their markedly advanced liver disease. Of the 23 patients suitable for TIPS, the indications for TIPS placement was portal hypertension complicated by refractory ascites alone (n = 9), hepatic hydrothorax alone (n = 2), refractory ascites and hydrothorax (n = 1), gastrointestinal bleeding alone (n = 8), gastrointestinal bleeding and ascites (n = 3).

RESULTS

Of these 23 attempted TIPS procedure patients, 21 patients had technically successful TIPS procedures. A total of 29 out of 32 TIPS procedures including revisions were successful in 21 patients with a mean age of 72.1 years (range 65-82 years). Three of the procedures were unsuccessful attempts at TIPS and 8 procedures were successful revisions of our existing TIPS. Sixteen of 21 patients who underwent successful TIPS (excluding 5 patients lost to follow-up) were followed for a mean of 14.7 mo. Ascites and/or hydrothorax was controlled following technically successful procedures in 12 of 13 patients. Bleeding was controlled following technically successful procedures in 10 out of 11 patients.

CONCLUSION

We have demonstrated that TIPS is an effective procedure to control refractory complications of portal hypertension in elderly patients.

Muscle wasting is associated with mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sarcopenia, defined as a low level of muscle mass, occurs in patients with cirrhosis. We assessed its incidence among cirrhotic patients undergoing evaluation for liver transplantation to investigate associations between sarcopenia and mortality and prognosis.

METHODS

We studied 112 patients with cirrhosis (78 men; mean age, 54 ± 1 years) who were consecutively evaluated for liver transplantation and had a computed tomography scan at the level of the third lumbar (L3) vertebrae to determine the L3 skeletal muscle index; sarcopenia was defined by using previously published, sex-specific cutoffs.

RESULTS

Of the patients studied, 45 (40%) had sarcopenia. Univariate Cox analysis associated mortality with ascites (hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; P = .04), encephalopathy (HR, 1.99; P = .04), level of bilirubin (HR, 1.007; P < .01), international normalized ratio (HR, 7.69; P < .001), level of creatinine (HR, 1.01; P = .005), level of albumin (HR, 94; P = .008), serum level of sodium (HR, 89; P < .001), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (HR, 1.14; P < .01), Child-Pugh score (HR, 2.84; P < .001), and sarcopenia (HR, 2.18; P = .006). By multivariate Cox analysis, only Child-Pugh (HR, 1.85; P = .04) and MELD scores (HR, 1.08; P = .001) and sarcopenia (HR, 2.21; P = .008) were independently associated with mortality. The median survival time for patients with sarcopenia was 19 ± 6 months, compared with 34 ± 11 months among nonsarcopenia patients (P = .005). There was a low level of correlation between L3 skeletal muscle index and MELD (r = -0.07; P = .5) and Child-Pugh scores (r = -0.14; P = .1).

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia is associated with mortality in patients with cirrhosis. It does not correlate with the degree of liver dysfunction evaluated by using conventional scoring systems. Scoring systems should include evaluation of sarcopenia to better assess mortality among patients with cirrhosis.

Predicting Mortality Across a Broad Spectrum of Liver Disease-An Assessment of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Creatinine-Modified CTP Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The role of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) among Indian patients with cirrhosis is uncertain. We studied and compared MELD with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and creatinine-modified-CTP (CrCTP) scores for predicting 1-, 3-, and 6-months mortality.

METHODS

One-hundred and two patients with cirrhosis were studied. The CrCTP was calculated by adding creatinine score of 0, 2 and 4 with creatinine levels of ≤1.2mg/dL, 1.3-1.8 mg/dL and ≥1.9mg/dL, respectively to CTP score. Survival curves were plotted and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare the scores. Predictors of mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Scores of CTP, CrCTP, and MELD have excellent diagnostic accuracy for predicting mortality (c-statistics >0.85). The MELD was superior to CTP for predicting 3-months [c-statistic and 95% confidence interval, 0.967 (0.911-0.992) vs 0.884 (0.806-0.939)] and 6-months [0.977 (0.925-0.996) vs 0.908 (0.835-0.956)] mortality (P=0.05), while CrCTP [0.958 (0.899-0.988)] was better than CTP for predicting 3-months mortality (P=0.02). Serum creatinine (hazard ratio 4.43, P<0.0001) is a strong independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The MELD accurately predicts mortality in cirrhosis and is better than CTP for predicting the short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Adding serum creatinine to CTP though significantly improves its diagnostic accuracy for short-term mortality; however, it remains lower than MELD alone.

Long-term clinical course of decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis: a prospective study of 165 patients

BACKGROUND

Prognosis of decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis is based mainly on studies that included patients with different severities of liver disease and did not recognize either hepatitis C virus epidemic or changes in clinical management of cirrhosis.

AIM

To define the long-term course after the first hepatic decompensation in alcoholic cirrhosis.

METHODS

Prospective inclusion at the start point of decompensated cirrhosis of 165 consecutive patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without known hepatocellular carcinoma hospitalized from January 1998 to December 2001 was made. Follow-up was maintained until death or the end of the observation period (April 1, 2010).

RESULTS

The patients were followed for 835.75 patient years. Median age was 56 years (95% confidence interval: 54-58). Baseline Child-Pugh score was 9 (95% CI: 8-9), and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 13.8 (95% CI: 12.5-14.7). Ascites was the most frequent first decompensation (51%). During follow-up, 99 (60%) patients were abstinent, hepatocellular carcinoma developed in 18 (11%) patients, and 116 patients died (70%). Median overall survival was 61 months (95% CI: 48-74). Median survival probability after onset of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) was only 14 months (95% CI: 5-23). Age, baseline MELD, albumin, development of HE, and persistence of alcohol use were independently correlated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with alcoholic cirrhosis show a high frequency of complications. The low mortality rate in our cohort of patients probably reflects the improvement in the management of patients with cirrhosis; it is mainly influenced by baseline MELD, age, HE development, and continued abstinence. Patients who develop HE should be considered for hepatic transplantation.

Using transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts for complications of cirrhosis

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) decompresses the portal venous system. TIPS has been used to manage the complications of portal hypertension in cirrhosis, including variceal hemorrhage and refractory ascites. The uncoated TIPS stents are limited by stent stenosis; however, the introduction of coated stents has decreased this. With the introduction of coated stents, we must reevaluate the utility of TIPS in the management of complications of portal hypertension.

Care of the liver transplant candidate

Care of the liver transplant candidate is one of the most challenging, yet rewarding aspects of hepatology. Anticipation and intervention for the major complications of advanced liver disease increase the likelihood of survival until transplant.

Advanced hemodynamic monitoring before and after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: implications for selection of patients--a prospective study

PURPOSE

To investigate immediate and short-term effects of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) on cardiocirculatory, hepatic, and renal function and characterize predictors for TIPS outcome in terms of organ function after TIPS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective study was approved by the ethics committee at a university hospital and was conducted in a medical intensive care unit. Informed consent was obtained. Twenty patients with indication for TIPS were enrolled. Monitoring of hemodynamic and hepatic function (transpulmonary thermodilution, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate [ICG-PDR]) was performed. Biochemical markers of organ function were obtained. Statistical analysis (Wilcoxon test, Spearman correlation, multivariate linear regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic [ROC] analysis) was performed.

RESULTS

After TIPS, central venous pressure (median, 11 vs 15 cm H(2)O; P < .001), cardiac index (3.4 vs 3.8 L/min/m(2); P = .001), and global end-diastolic volume index (GEDVI) (726 vs 775 mL/m(2); P = .003) increased significantly. Portosystemic pressure gradient (28 vs 11 cm H(2)O; P < .001) and systemic vascular resistance index (1610 vs 1384 dyn · sec · cm(-5) · m(2); P = .015) decreased significantly. Creatinine (1.1 vs 1.1 mg/dL; P = .008) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (27 vs 21 mg/dL; P = .006) decreased significantly. Bilirubin (1.8 vs 2.2 mg/dL; P = .032) and international normalized ratio (1.4 vs 1.5; P = .022) increased significantly. ICG-PDR significantly deteriorated after TIPS (P = .006). Higher baseline creatinine was independently associated with a decrease in creatinine after TIPS (R = 0.816, P < .001). ROC analysis identified baseline BUN (P = .026, area under ROC curve [AUC] = 0.818), cystatin C (P = .033, AUC = 0.805), and creatinine (P = .052, AUC = 0.779) as predictors of a decrease in creatinine of 0.5 mg/dL or greater and/or 25% or greater. An increase in bilirubin of 1 mg/dL or greater 1 week after TIPS was significantly associated with high baseline BUN (P = .007, AUC = 0.893) and high central venous pressure (P = .040, AUC = 0.800). Lower baseline alanine aminotransferase (P = .002, AUC = 1.000) and cardiac power index · GEDVI (P = .005, AUC = 0.960) predicted favorable TIPS outcome (creatinine decrease of ≥ 0.2 mg/dL without model for end-stage liver disease score increase of more than one point).

CONCLUSION

Patients with renal insufficiency, compensated hepatocellular function, decreased cardiac preload, and decreased cardiac performance benefit most from TIPS.

Liver dysfunction by model for end-stage liver disease score improves mortality prediction in injured patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is associated with poor outcomes in the trauma setting. We aimed to evaluate the utility of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in assessing additional mortality risk in trauma patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Injured patients with liver dysfunction were identified by hospital and trauma registry query. Presence of cirrhosis was confirmed by laparotomy, biopsy, or imaging. MELD classification, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and Trauma ISS (TRISS) were recorded, and the primary outcome variable was hospital mortality. We assessed the validity of the four scoring systems in prediction of mortality, individually and in combinations, by comparing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), which is the probability, for scores that increase with the risk of death that a randomly chosen deceased subject will score higher than a randomly chosen living subject.

RESULTS

A total of 163 patients with confirmed cirrhosis were included. ISS (AUC = 0.849, p < 0.001) and TRISS (AUC = 0.826, p < 0.001) were the strongest predictors of mortality. MELD (AUC = 0.725) was not a significantly stronger predictor of mortality than CTP (AUC = 0.639; p = 0.38). ISS + MELD (AUC = 0.891) and ISS + CTP (AUC = 0.897) were stronger predictors than ISS alone (AUC = 0.849; p < 0.001) for both. The MELD score was more available from the records than the CTP score (91.4% vs. 75.5%).

CONCLUSION

In trauma patients with cirrhosis, a score that evaluates the degree of liver dysfunction enhances the ability of ISS alone to predict mortality. The MELD score is more readily available than the CTP score for the prediction of mortality in trauma patients.

Clinical and laboratory evaluation of patients with end-stage liver cell failure injected with bone marrow-derived hepatocyte-like cells

AIM

One of the defining features of the liver is the capacity to maintain a constant size despite injury. Extrahepatic stem cells especially bone marrow-derived stem cells are thought to undertake an important role in liver repopulation. This study was carried out to evaluate the outcome of autologous bone marrow-derived hepatocytes transplantation in patients with end-stage liver cell failure due to chronic hepatitis C.

METHODS

Forty patients were included, divided into two groups. Group I: 20 patients receiving autologous bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells stimulated to hepatic lineage. They were subdivided into two groups regarding the route of transplantation: intrasplenic (10) and intrahepatic (10). Group II: included 20 patients who received traditional supportive treatment. Patients were followed up using examination, laboratory investigations, abdominal ultrasonography, and evaluated by Child score, Model for End Stage Liver Disease score, fatigue scale, and performance status.

RESULTS

The results showed significant improvement in group I regarding ascites, lower limb edema, and serum albumin, over the control group. Group I also showed statistically significant improvement in Child score, Model for End Stage Liver Disease score, fatigue scale, and performance status over the controls. No difference was observed between intrahepatic and intrasplenic groups.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the safety and short-term efficacy of autologous bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cell injection in liver cell failure. Further study is necessary to standardize the cell dose, determine the life span of the injected cells, and detect the appearance of long-term complications.

Risk factors for long-term mortality in a large cohort of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver donor shortage and long waiting times are observed in many liver transplant programs worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate the wait list in a developing country, before and after the introduction of the MELD scoring system. In addition, the MELD score ability to predict mortality in this setting was assessed. A single-center retrospective study of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation between 1997 and 2010 was undertaken. There were 1339 and 762 patients on the list in pre-MELD and MELD era, respectively. A competitive risk analysis was performed to assess age, gender, disease diagnosis, serum sodium, MELD, Child-Pugh, ABO type, and body mass index. Also, MELD score predictive ability at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after list enrollment was evaluated. The overall mortality rates on waiting list were 31.0% and 28.1% (P = 0.16), and the median waiting times were 412 and 952 days (P < 0.001), in pre and MELD eras, respectively. The competitive risk analysis yielded the following significant P values for both eras: HCC (0.03 and <0.001), MELD (<0.001 and 0.002), sodium level (0.002 and <0.001), and Child-Pugh (0.02 and <0.001). The MELD mortality predictions at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months were similar. In conclusion, in a liver transplant program with long waiting times, the MELD system introduction did not improve mortality rate. In either pre and MELD eras, HCC diagnosis, serum sodium, Child-Pugh, and MELD were significant predictors of prognosis. Short- and long-term MELD based mortality predictions were similarly accurate. Strategies for increasing the liver donor pool should be implemented to improve mortality.

Predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality by model for endstage liver disease score for patients with head and neck cancer and liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system for predicting the morbidity and mortality of patients with head and neck cancer with liver cirrhosis undergoing tumor resection with microsurgical free-tissue transfer.

METHODS

Between January 2000 and December 2008, 3108 cases were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

There were 59 men and 2 women enrolled in this study. Preoperatively, 31 and 30 patients were classified as having lower (<9.73) and higher (>9.73) MELD scores, respectively. Patients with higher MELD scores had significantly more postoperative medical morbidities including pulmonary complications and gastrointestinal bleeding. The mortality rate was also significantly higher for higher MELD scorers (23.3% vs 3.2%; p = 0.026). By logistic regression model, preoperative MELD score was a significant predictive factor for morbidity and mortality in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

MELD score could be used to predict morbidity and mortality for patients with head and neck cancer with liver cirrhosis undergoing tumor resection with microsurgical free tissue transfer.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in the management of refractory ascites

The purpose of this article is to describe the pathophysiological basis for the use of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites, the short- and long-term hemodynamic, biochemical, and hormonal changes after TIPS, and the results of controlled trials of TIPS in cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites. TIPS placement is associated with normalization of sinusoidal pressure and a significant improvement in urinary sodium excretion that correlates with suppression of plasma renin activity (indicative of an improvement in effective arterial blood volume). Although effective in preventing the recurrence of ascites, the efficacy of TIPS is offset by an increase in the incidence of severe hepatic encephalopathy, a high incidence of shunt dysfunction, and a higher cost without an overall survival benefit, which should be reevaluated in light of polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stents. TIPS placement is currently indicated in seleceted cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites who require more than two to three large-volume paracenteses per month.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in patients with hepatic malignancy

Since its first clinical application in 1988, the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has emerged as a safe and effective means of managing patients with morbid portal hypertension. Despite the considerable body of literature on TIPS, portal decompression in patients with malignancy has not been sufficiently examined. These patients typically experience sequelae of portal hypertension that requires palliation. The purpose of this article is to review the reported experience with TIPS in patients with malignancy.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt-related complications and practical solutions

Despite the clinical complexity of patients with severe liver disease and the technical demands associated with the creation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), the major complication rate of this procedure is less than 5%. Delayed recognition and treatment of complications related to TIPS can have life-threatening consequences. This article provides an overview of the spectrum of periprocedural and delayed complications related to the performance of TIPS and offers the reader pearls for both avoiding and managing those complications.

The evaluation of the patient undergoing an elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedure

In its early stages, the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) was utilized as a lifesaving procedure to treat uncontrollable esophageal variceal bleeding. Most of the initial cases were performed in an emergency situation in the worst possible conditions. The experience gained over the past 15 years has established TIPS as an important therapeutic option in the management of patients with complications of portal hypertension such as variceal bleeding or refractory ascites who do not respond to medical therapy. In current medical practice, 80 to 90% of TIPS procedures are performed in an elective or semielective fashion and only a small percentage of cases are now performed on an emergency basis. The experience gained has demonstrated that certain patients do not benefit from a TIPS procedure and furthermore, their baseline condition may even worsen after a TIPS. This article reviews the most important aspects of the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing an elective TIPS procedure.

Emergency transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS): results, complications and predictors of mortality in the first month of follow-up

PURPOSE

We conducted a single-centre retrospective analysis of the results and predictors of early mortality in emergency transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between 1992 and 2009, 82 patients with refractory variceal bleeding underwent emergency TIPS at our Institution. The success and complications of the procedure were assessed for each patient. Child class, platelet count, prothrombin time, serum creatinine levels and venous pressure before and after TIPS were studied statistically as possible prognostic factors of early mortality.

RESULTS

The technical, haemodynamic, and clinical success rates were 91.6%, 78% and 86.6%, respectively. Complications occurred in 21 cases (25.6%): eight were major (two stent migrations, one pulmonary embolism, one haemoperitoneum, one haemobilia, three intrahepatic haematomas) and 13 were minor (encephalopathy responsive to medical therapy). Twenty-one patients (25.6%) died due to the following causes: disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) (n=2), haemorrhage (n=8), cardiopulmonary failure (n=2) and liver failure (n=9). The predictors of mortality were Child's class C, high serum creatinine and prolonged prothrombin time.

CONCLUSIONS

The technical success of TIPS may not lead to haemodynamic and clinical success. Complications are often due to impaired coagulation and inadequacy of the stent-graft. Early mortality is only influenced by pre-existing clinical and laboratory factors.

Accuracy of MELD scores in predicting mortality in decompensated cirrhosis from variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, alcoholic hepatitis, or acute liver failure as well as mortality after non-transplant surgery or TIPS

BACKGROUND

To systematically review literature on use of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to determine severity and prognosis of liver disease in various clinical situations and to evaluate its use in decisions regarding therapeutic interventions.

METHODS

Computerized literature searches using key medical terms; review of authors' extensive files on this subject; and personal clinical experience.

RESULTS

The MELD score, a prospectively developed and validated scale for severity of end-stage liver disease, utilizes serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and international normalized ratio to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients. It has proven clinically useful in increasingly varied clinical situations. The United Network for Organ Sharing uses MELD scores, with bonus points assigned for hepatocellular cancer, to prioritize allocation of deceased donor livers for liver transplantation. This work reviews recent data demonstrating that MELD scores relatively accurately predict mortality in patients with variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, alcoholic hepatitis, and acute liver failure, as well as assess risks of non-liver transplantation surgery or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in cirrhotic patients. MELD scores fail to predict mortality in about 15% of patients with end-stage liver disease. Incorporation of additional parameters, including serum sodium level, serum albumin level, glucose intolerance, or APACHE II score, may potentially improve prognostic accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD scores relatively accurately assess severity of liver disease and prognosis in patients with advanced liver disease in general, and in patients with individual complications of liver disease. It is useful in making decisions on potential therapies. Incorporating additional parameters may further improve its prognostic accuracy.

Role of TIPS in Improving Survival of Patients with Decompensated Liver Disease

Liver cirrhosis is associated with higher morbidity and reduced survival with appearance of portal hypertension and resultant decompensation. Portal decompression plays a key role in improving survival in these patients. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts are known to be efficacious in reducing portal venous pressure and control of complications such as variceal bleeding and ascites. However, they have been associated with significant problems such as poor shunt durability, increased encephalopathy, and unchanged survival when compared with conservative treatment options. The last decade has seen a significant improvement in these complications, with introduction of covered stents, better selection of patients, and clearer understanding of procedural end-points. Use of TIPS early in the period of decompensation also appears promising in further improvement of survival of cirrhotic patients.

Six score systems to evaluate candidates with advanced cirrhosis for orthotopic liver transplant: Which is the winner?

Many prognostic systems have been devised to predict the outcome of liver transplantation (LT) candidates. Today, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is widely used for organ allocation, but it has shown some limitations. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of MELD compared to 5 different score models. We evaluated the prognostic ability of MELD, modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh, MELD-sodium, United Kingdom MELD, updated MELD, and integrated MELD in 487 candidates with cirrhosis for LT at the Bologna Transplant Centre, Bologna, Italy, between 2003 and 2008. Calibration analysis by Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curves, and concordance c-statistics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were calculated at 3, 6, and 12 months. Actual cumulative survival curves, taking into account the event of interest in the presence of competing risk, were obtained using the best cutoffs identified by AUC. For each score, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed a good calibration. Integrated MELD showed calibration curves closer to the line of perfect predicting ability, followed by MELD-sodium at 3 months and modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh at 6 months. MELD-sodium AUCs at 3 and 6 months (0.798 and 0.765, respectively) and integrated MELD AUC at 6 months (0.792) were better than standard MELD (P < 0.05). Actual survival curves showed that these 2 scores were able to identify the patients with the highest drop-out risk. In conclusion, MELD-sodium and integrated MELD were the best prognostic models to predict drop-out rates among patients awaiting LT.

A new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma based on total tumor volume: the Taipei Integrated Scoring System

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The currently used staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not satisfactory. The optimal prognostic model for HCC is still under intense debate. This study aimed to propose a new staging system for HCC based on total tumor volume (TTV) and to compare it with the currently used systems.

METHODS

A total of 2030 HCC patients undergoing different treatment strategies were retrospectively analyzed. TTV was defined as the sum of the volume of each tumor [(4/3)x3.14x(radius of tumor in cm)(3)]. The discriminatory ability of the TTV-based staging system and the four current systems, including the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Japan Integrated Staging system, and Tokyo system, was examined by comparing the Akaike information criterion (AIC) using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A higher TTV correlated well with the decreased survival in HCC patients (p<0.001). Among the 12 TTV-based staging systems, the TTV-Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP)-alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) combination provided the lowest AIC value. The TTV-CTP-AFP model consistently showed a better prognostic ability in comparison to the current four staging systems. In 936 HCC patients receiving curative treatment, the TTV-CTP-AFP model provided the second best predictive accuracy following the CLIP score. Alternatively, in 1094 patients undergoing non-curative treatment, the TTV-CTP-AFP model exhibited the smallest AIC value.

CONCLUSIONS

TTV may be a feasible tumoral prognostic predictor for HCC. In this single-hospital study that included patients with early to advanced cancer stages, the TTV-CTP-AFP model provides the best prognostic ability among 12 TTV-based and currently used staging systems.

Combined MELD and blood lipid level in evaluating the prognosis of decompensated cirrhosis

AIM: To evaluate the prognostic value of the combined model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and blood lipid level in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS: A total of 198 patients with decompensated cirrhosis were enrolled into the study. The values of triglyceride (TG), cholesterol (TC), high density lipoproteins (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) of each patient on the first day of admission were retrieved from the medical records, and MELD was calculated. All the patients were followed up for 1 year. The relationship between the change of blood lipid level and the value of MELD score was studied by analysis of variance. The prognostic factors were screened by multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Draw Kaplan-Meier survival curves were drawn.

RESULTS: Forty-five patients died within 3 mo and 83 patients died within 1 year. The levels of TG, TC, HDL and LDL of the death group were all lower than those of the survivors. The serum TG, TC, HDL and LDL levels were lowered with the increase of the MELD score. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model showed that MELD ≥ 18 and TC ≤ 2.8 mmol/L were independent risk factors for prognosis of decompensated cirrhosis. Survival analysis showed that MELD ≥ 18 combined with TC ≤ 2.8 mmol/L can clearly discriminate between the patients who would survive and die in 1 year.

CONCLUSION: MELD ≥ 18 and TC ≤ 2.8 mmol/L are two important indexes to predict the prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Their combination can effectively predict the long-term prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for symptomatic refractory hepatic hydrothorax in patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

We sought to study effectiveness, survival, and complications after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with cirrhosis and symptomatic refractory hepatic hydrothorax.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent TIPS between January 1992 and December 2008 for refractory hydrothorax were reviewed retrospectively. Clinical, laboratory, and procedural data were collected for all patients by retrospective chart review. Chi-square test was used to compare categorical variables and t-test to compare continuous variables. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. Survival curves were compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Seventy-three patients were included in the study, and their mean age at TIPS creation was 55.62 years (s.d. 11.65). The mean pre- and post-TIPS portosystemic gradients were 18.9 (s.d. 4.7) mm Hg and 5.7 (s.d. 2.4) mm Hg (P<0.001), respectively. The rates of favorable clinical response within 1 month and at 6 months after TIPS were 79% (58/73) and 75% (30/40), respectively. Median survival of the study group was 517 days (95% CI 11-626). The short-term survival rates at 30, 60, and 90 days were 81, 78, and 72%, respectively. The long-term survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 48, 26, and 15%, respectively. Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards method showed that pre-TIPS model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (P=0.039, HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.0-3.7)) and clinical response (P=0.003, HR 2.5 (95% CI 1.4-4.5)) were significantly and independently associated with overall survival. The 30-day mortality rate was 19%. Pre-TIPS creatinine levels (P=0.024, HR 3.42 (95% CI 1.2-9.9)) were significantly associated with 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

TIPS can be successfully used to achieve symptomatic relief in patients with refractory hepatic hydrothorax. Better clinical response after TIPS and pre-TIPS MELD score less than 15 were associated with longer survival after TIPS.

Predictive factors for rebleeding and death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: a multivariate analysis

BACKGROUND

Bleeding from esophageal varices is a leading cause of death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients. The aim of the present single-center study was to identify risk factors predictive of variceal rebleeding and death within 6 weeks of initial treatment.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on 310 prospectively documented alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) who underwent 786 endoscopic variceal injection treatments between January 1984 and December 2006. All injections were administered during the first 6 weeks after the patients were treated for their first variceal bleed.

RESULTS

Seventy-five (24.2%) patients experienced a rebleed, 38 within 5 days of the initial treatment and 37 within 6 weeks of their initial treatment. Of the 15 variables studied and included in a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, a bilirubin level >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood during the initial hospital admission were predictors of variceal rebleeding within the first 6 weeks. Seventy-seven (24.8%) patients died, 29 (9.3%) within 5 days and 48 (15.4%) between 6 and 42 days after the initial treatment. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that six variables were predictors of death within the first 6 weeks: encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin level >51 mmol/l, international normalized ratio (INR) >2.3, albumin <25 g/l, and the need for balloon tube tamponade.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival was influenced by the severity of liver failure, with most deaths occurring in Child-Pugh grade C patients. Patients with AVH and encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l, INR >2.3, albumin <25 g/l and who require balloon tube tamponade are at increased risk of dying within the first 6 weeks. Bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood were predictors of variceal rebleeding.

Diagnostic and prognostic values of critical flicker frequency determination as new diagnostic tool for objective HE evaluation in patients undergoing TIPS implantation

OBJECTIVES

The diagnostic and prognostic value of critical flicker frequency (CFF) analysis for assessment of severity and dynamics of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) was studied before and after implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS).

BASIC METHODS

Sixty-three cirrhotic patients were retrospectively analyzed for the consequences of TIPS implantation. Thirty-one cirrhotic patients without TIPS implantation served as age-matched, sex-matched, Child-Pugh-matched controls. CFF and computer psychometric tests as objective test parameters of HE-severity were evaluated for analysis of visual discrimination ability, general arousal and cognitive function. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used for analysis of prognostic significances.

MAIN RESULTS

In the control group, HE-severity was stable during the observation period (442+/-428 days) with minimal changes in CFF (-0.1+/-1.9 Hz). In the intervention group, TIPS implantation had no effect on HE-severity in 44% of the patients and CFF shifted by only 0.01+/-1.5 Hz. Thirty-five and 21% of the patients experienced an aggravation or improvement of HE after TIPS implantation, respectively. In HE improvers CFF increased by 3.3+/-2.3 Hz and decreased by 3.5+/-1.5 Hz in those experiencing an aggravation of HE-severity. Univariate analysis showed that overall survival in the study population inversely correlated with HE-severity and serum alkaline phosphatase activity and positively correlated with serum sodium, albumin and CFF. Serum albumin, alkaline phosphatase levels and CFF were independent predictors of survival in a multivariate Cox regression analysis.

CONCLUSION

The data show that pre-TIPS HE does not predict post-TIPS encephalopathy. Otherwise, CFF can reliably pick up the evolution of HE-severity after TIPS implantation. Low pre-TIPS CFF is indicative for a poor prognosis and may help to identify transplant candidates without delay.

Evaluation of indocyanine green clearance and model for end-stage liver disease for estimation of short-term prognosis in decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Indocyanine green (ICG) clearance has been proposed as a quantitative liver function test several decades ago. Interest in this method has been renewed following the development of finger pulse densitometry for noninvasive estimation of the ICG plasma disappearance rate (PDR). On the other hand, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), which is based on routine laboratory parameters, is widely used for estimation of short-term survival in cirrhosis, but its prognostic value in critically ill cirrhotic patients is unclear.

AIMS

The aim of the present study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of ICG PDR vs. MELD for estimation of short-term prognosis in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

Ninety consecutive cirrhotic patients who were admitted for decompensated disease or were being evaluated for liver transplantation were screened. Patients who underwent liver transplantation within the following 90 days and those with hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded. In the remaining 70 patients, routine laboratory parameters and ICG clearance were analysed. Following an injection of ICG 0.25 mg/kg, PDR was measured by finger pulse densitometry. The diagnostic accuracy of ICG PDR and MELD for prediction of 90-day survival was assessed by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

ROC curve analysis revealed superior diagnostic accuracy for MELD as compared with ICG PDR in predicting 90-day survival (area under the ROC curve 0.89 vs. 0.71). A MELD cut-off of 22 provided the best discrimination for prediction of 90-day survival.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD is superior to ICG PDR for estimation of short-term survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

New model for end stage liver disease improves prognostic capability after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Cirrhotic patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) for refractory ascites or recurrent variceal bleeding are at risk for decompensation and death. This study examined whether a new model for end stage liver disease (MELD), which incorporates serum sodium (MELDNa), is a better predictor of death or transplant after TIPS than the original MELD.

METHODS

One hundred forty-eight consecutive patients undergoing nonemergent TIPS for refractory ascites or recurrent variceal bleeding from 1997 to 2006 at a single center were evaluated retrospectively. Cox model analysis was performed with death or transplant within 6 months as the end point. The models were compared using the Harrell's C index. Recursive partitioning determined the optimal MELDNa cutoff to maximize the risk:benefit ratio of TIPS.

RESULTS

The predictive ability of MELDNa was superior to MELD, particularly in patients with low MELD scores. The C indices (95% confidence interval [CI]) for MELDNa and MELD were 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55-0.71) and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.51-0.67) using a cut-off score of 18, and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.49-0.74) using a cut-off score of 15. Using a MELDNa >15, 22% of patients were reclassified to a higher risk with an event rate of 44% compared with 10% when the score was <or=15.

CONCLUSIONS

MELDNa performed better than MELD in predicting death or transplant after non-emergent TIPS, especially in patients with low MELD scores. A MELD score <or=18 can provide a false positive prognosis; a MELDNa score <or=15 provides a more accurate risk prediction.

Prediction of mortality after emergent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement: use of APACHE II, Child-Pugh and MELD scores in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage

Objective

This study was designed to determine if existing methods of grading liver function that have been developed in non-Asian patients with cirrhosis can be used to predict mortality in Asian patients treated for refractory variceal hemorrhage by the use of the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure.

Materials and Methods

Data for 107 consecutive patients who underwent an emergency TIPS procedure were retrospectively analyzed. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of the various models to predict 30-day, 60-day and 360-day mortality. The ability of stratified APACHE II, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores to predict survival was assessed by the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test.

Results

No patient died during the TIPS procedure, but 82 patients died during the follow-up period. Thirty patients died within 30 days after the TIPS procedure; 37 patients died within 60 days and 53 patients died within 360 days. Univariate analysis indicated that hepatorenal syndrome, use of inotropic agents and mechanical ventilation were associated with elevated 30-day mortality (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 predicted increased risk of death at 30, 60 and 360 days (p < 0.05). APACHE II scores could only predict mortality at 360 days (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

A Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 are predictive of mortality in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage treated with the TIPS procedure. An APACHE II score is not predictive of early mortality in this patient population.

Comparison and improvement of MELD and Child-Pugh score accuracies for the prediction of 6-month mortality in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND/GOALS

Superiority of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) over the Child-Pugh score for the prediction of outcome in patients with chronic liver disease is still debated. The main objective of this prospective study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Child-Pugh score, the MELD, and the new score, MELD-Na, combining MELD and serum sodium (Na), for the prediction of 6-month mortality in cirrhotic patients.

STUDY

In all, 308 consecutive cirrhotic patients were included. Child-Pugh score, MELD, and MELD-Na were calculated at the inclusion.

RESULTS

In all, 154 patients (50.0%) had decompensated cirrhosis. Forty-five patients died during the 6-month follow-up: 3 in the subgroup of compensated cirrhosis and 42 in the decompensated subgroup (1.9% vs. 27.3%, P<10(-3)). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the prediction of 6-month mortality of Child-Pugh score, MELD, and MELD-Na were, respectively, in the whole population: 0.882, 0.866, and 0.887 (P=NS), and in the subgroup of decompensated cirrhosis: 0.796, 0.800, and 0.833 (P=NS). MELD-Na had the highest accuracy but the difference reached statistical significance only with the Child-Pugh score in the subgroup of patients with decompensated cirrhosis (79.9% vs. 68.0%, P=0.006). The combination of Child-Pugh score or MELD with other variables reflecting the circulatory dysfunction observed in end-stage liver disease significantly improved the accuracy of these 2 models.

CONCLUSIONS

Child-Pugh score remains a simple and effective tool for the prognostic assessment of cirrhotic patients at bedside and can still be used in clinical practice. MELD, and especially MELD-Na, should be reserved for patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Application of a biochemical and clinical model to predict individual survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

AIM: To investigate the capability of a biochemical and clinical model, BioCliM, in predicting the survival of cirrhotic patients.

METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the survival of 172 cirrhotic patients. The model was constructed using clinical (ascites, encephalopathy and variceal bleeding) and biochemical (serum creatinine and serum total bilirubin) variables that were selected from a Cox proportional hazards model. It was applied to estimate 12-, 52- and 104-wk survival. The model’s calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was computed at 104 wk in a validation dataset. Finally, the model’s validity was tested among an independent set of 85 patients who were stratified into 2 risk groups (low risk ≤ 8 and high risk > 8).

RESULTS: In the validation cohort, all measures of fit, discrimination and calibration were improved when the biochemical and clinical model was used. The proposed model had better predictive values (c-statistic: 0.90, 0.91, 0.91) than the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh (CP) scores for 12-, 52- and 104-wk mortality, respectively. In addition, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic revealed that the biochemical and clinical model (H-L, 4.69) is better calibrated than MELD (H-L, 17.06) and CP (H-L, 14.23). There were no significant differences between the observed and expected survival curves in the stratified risk groups (low risk, P = 0.61; high risk, P = 0.77).

CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the proposed model is able to accurately predict survival in cirrhotic patients.

Clinical features and predictors of outcome in acute hepatitis A and hepatitis E virus hepatitis on cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Acute hepatitis A and E are recognized triggers of hepatic decompensation in patients with cirrhosis, particularly from the Indian subcontinent. However, the resulting acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has not been well characterized and no large studies are available. Our study aimed to evaluate the clinical profile and predictors of 3-month mortality in patients with this distinctive form of liver failure.

METHODS

ACLF was diagnosed in patients with acute hepatitis A or E [abrupt rise in serum bilirubin and/or alanine aminotransferase with positive immunoglobulin M anti-hepatitis A virus (HAV)/anti-hepatitis E virus (HEV)] presenting with clinical evidence of liver failure (significant ascites and/or hepatic encephalopathy) and clinical, biochemical, endoscopic (oesophageal varices at least grade II in size), ultrasonographical (presence of nodular irregular liver with porto-systemic collaterals) or histological evidence of cirrhosis. Clinical and laboratory profile were evaluated, predictors of 3-month mortality were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression and a prognostic model was constructed. Receiver-operating curves were plotted to measure performance of the present prognostic model, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score.

RESULTS

ACLF occurred in 121 (3.75%) of 3220 patients (mean age 36.3+/-18.0 years; M:F 85:36) with liver cirrhosis admitted from January 2000 to June 2006. It was due to HEV in 80 (61.1%), HAV in 33 (27.2%) and both in 8 (6.1%). The underlying liver cirrhosis was due to HBV (37), alcohol (17), Wilson's disease (8), HCV (5), autoimmune (6), Budd-Chiari syndrome (2), haemochromatosis (2) and was cryptogenic in the rest (42). Common presentations were jaundice (100%), ascites (78%) and hepatic encephalopathy (55%). Mean (SD) CTP score was 11.4+/-1.6 and mean MELD score was 28.6+/-9.06. Three-month mortality was 54 (44.6%). Complications seen were sepsis in 42 (31.8%), renal failure in 45 (34%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in 27 (20.5%), UGI bleeding in 15(11%) and hyponatraemia in 50 (41.3%). On univariate analysis, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, renal failure, GI bleeding, total bilirubin, hyponatraemia and coagulopathy were significant predictors of mortality. Multivariate analysis revealed grades 3 and 4 HE [odds ratio (OR 32.1)], hyponatraemia (OR 9.2) and renal failure (OR 16.8) as significant predictors of 3-month mortality and a prognostic model using these predictors was constructed. Areas under the curve for the present predicted prognostic model, MELD, and CTP were 0.952, 0.941 and 0.636 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLF due to hepatitis A or E super infection results in significant short-term mortality. The predictors of ominous outcome include grades 3 and 4 encephalopathy, hyponatraemia and renal failure. Present prognostic model and MELD scoring system were better predictors of 3-month outcome than CTP score in these patients. Early recognition of those with dismal prognosis may permit timely use of liver replacement/supportive therapies.

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS)

The creation of an intrahepatic portosystemic shunt via a transjugular approach (TIPS) is an interventional radiological procedure used to treat the complications of portal hypertension. TIPS insertion is principally indicated to prevent or arrest variceal bleeding when medical or endoscopic treatments fail, and in the management refractory ascites. This review discusses the development and execution of the technique, with focus on its clinical efficacy. Patient selection, imaging surveillance, revision techniques, and complications are also discussed.