POSSUM: a scoring system for surgical audit

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) Predicts Postoperative Major Complications After Hepato-Pancreato Biliary Surgery in the Elderly

BACKGROUND

As society ages, an increasing number of elderly patients require hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery. We investigated the risk factors for complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery using surgical risk scoring models.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 184 elderly patients (≥ 65 years old) who underwent HPB surgery, including the liver, pancreas, bile duct, and/or gallbladder resection, with exemption to simple cholecystectomy between January 2017 and December 2019. The surgical risk scoring models used included the Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), and Geriatric 8 (G8). We evaluated the correlations between the scores and severe complications. Complications were classified as severe (Clavien-Dindo classification [C-D] ≥ III) or non-severe (C-D ≤ II).

RESULTS

Complications occurred in 78 patients (24 C-D ≥ III, 54 C-D ≤ II). Preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), and comprehensive risk score (CRS) were significantly higher in patients with C-D ≥ IIIa than in those with C-D ≤ II. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that PRS (P = 0.01) and SSS (P = 0.04) were independent predictive factors for severe complications. However, the POSSUM and G8 models showed no significant correlations to severe complications.

CONCLUSION

E-PASS is a useful model for predicting complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery.

Risk scores in anaesthesia: the future is hard to predict

External validation helps to assess whether a given risk prediction model will perform well in a target population. Validation is an important step in maintaining the utility of risk prediction models, as their ability to provide reliable risk estimates will deteriorate over time (calibration drift).

Keep Them on the Table: Outcomes Are Improved After Minimally Invasive Colectomy Despite Longer Operative Times in Patients With High-Risk Colon Cancer

BACKGROUND

For high-risk patients, traditional surgical dogma advises open operations, with short operative times, to "get them off the table" instead of longer minimally invasive surgery approaches.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare postoperative outcomes in patients with high-risk colon cancer undergoing elective longer minimally invasive surgery operations compared with shorter open operations.

DESIGN

Retrospective comparative cohort study.

SETTINGS

Interventions were performed in hospitals participating in the national surgical database.

PATIENTS

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was used to identify patients with colon cancer with ASA class 3 to 4 undergoing right and sigmoid colectomy between 2012 and 2017.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Thirty-day postoperative outcomes were compared between short open and long minimally invasive groups.

RESULTS

A total of 3775 patients were identified as having undergone long minimally invasive right colectomy and short open right colectomy (33% open, 67% minimally invasive surgery), and 1042 patients were identified as having undergone long minimally invasive sigmoid colectomy and short open sigmoid colectomy (36% open, 64% minimally invasive). Patients undergoing long minimally invasive right colectomy had significantly lower rates of overall morbidity, severe adverse events, mortality, superficial surgical site infections, and wound disruptions, as well as discharge to a higher level of care and shorter length of stay ( p < 0.05). Patients undergoing long minimally invasive sigmoid colectomy had decreased rates of overall morbidity, severe adverse events, and length of stay, as well as discharge to a higher level of care compared with the patients undergoing short open sigmoid colectomy ( p < 0.05).

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by the retrospective nature and standardized outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

In high-risk patients undergoing colectomy for colon cancer, outcomes were worse with shorter open compared with longer minimally invasive surgery operations. Focus should shift from getting patients "off the table" faster to longer, but safer, minimally invasive surgery in high-risk patients. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B642 .

MANTNGALOS SOBRE LA MESA HAY MEJORES RESULTADOS DESPUS DE COLECTOMA MNIMAMENTE INVASIVA A PESAR DE TIEMPOS QUIRRGICOS MS PROLONGADOS EN PACIENTES CON CNCER DE COLON DE ALTO RIESGO

ANTECEDENTES:Para los pacientes de alto riesgo, el dogma quirúrgico tradicional aconseja operaciones abiertas, con tiempos quirúrgicos cortos, con el fin de "sacarlos de la mesa" en lugar de enfoques quirúrgicos mínimamente invasivos más prolongados.OBJETIVO:El objetivo de este estudio fue comparar los resultados posoperatorios en pacientes electivos de cáncer de colon de alto riesgo sometidos a operaciones de cirugía mínimamente invasiva más prolongadas en comparación con operaciones abiertas más cortas.DISEÑO:Los resultados posoperatorios de pacientes con cáncer de colon con clase 3-4 de la Sociedad Americana de Anestesiología sometidos a colectomía derecha o sigmoidea se compararon en un análisis multivariado. Se comparó el grupo de colectomía derecha abierta corta (tiempo operatorio <116 minutos) y colectomía derecha mínimamente invasiva larga (tiempo operatorio> 132 minutos). También se compararon la colectomía sigmoidea abierta corta (tiempo operatorio <127 minutos) y la colectomía sigmoidea mínimamente invasiva larga (tiempo operatorio> 161 minutos).ESCENARIO:Las intervenciones se realizaron en hospitales participantes en la base de datos quirúrgica nacional.PACIENTES:La base de datos del Programa Nacional de Mejoramiento de la Calidad Quirúrgica se utilizó para identificar a los pacientes con cáncer de colon con clase 3-4 de la Sociedad Americana de Anestesiología sometidos a colectomía derecha y sigmoidea entre 2012-2017.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:Se compararon los resultados posoperatorios a los treinta días entre el grupo de procedimientos abiertos cortos y el de mínimamente invasivos largos.RESULTADOS:Se identificó un total de 3.775 pacientes sometidos a colectomía derecha mínimamente invasiva larga y colectomía derecha abierta corta (33% abierta, 67% cirugía mínimamente invasiva) y se identificaron 1042 pacientes sometidos a colectomía sigmoidea mínimamente invasiva larga y colectomía sigmoidea abierta corta (36% abierta, 64% mínimamente invasiva). Los pacientes con colectomía derecha larga mínimamente invasiva tuvieron significativamente menor morbilidad general, eventos adversos graves, mortalidad, infecciones superficiales del sitio quirúrgico, dehiscencia de herida, alta a un nivel más alto de atención y estadía más corta ( p <0.05). Los pacientes con colectomía sigmoidea mínimamente invasiva prolongada tuvieron menor morbilidad general, eventos adversos graves, duración de la estadía y alta a un nivel más alto de atención en comparación con los pacientes con colectomía sigmoidea abierta corta ( p <0.05).LIMITACIONES:Este estudio estuvo limitado por la naturaleza retrospectiva y las medidas de resultado estandarizadas.CONCLUSIONES:En los pacientes de alto riesgo sometidos a colectomía por cáncer de colon, los resultados fueron peores con operaciones abiertas más cortas en comparación con operaciones mínimamente invasivas más largas. El enfoque debe pasar de hacer que los pacientes "salgan rápido de la mesa quirúrgica" a una cirugía mínimamente invasiva más prolongada pero más segura, en pacientes de alto riesgo. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B642 . (Traducción-Dr. Jorge Silva Velazco ).

External validity of four risk scores predicting 30-day mortality after surgery

Background

Surgical risk prediction tools can facilitate shared decision-making and efficient allocation of perioperative resources. Such tools should be externally validated in target populations before implementation.

Methods

Predicted risk of 30-day mortality was retrospectively derived for surgical patients at Royal Perth Hospital from 2014 to 2021 using the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and the related NZRISK (n=44 031, 53 395 operations). In a sub-population (n=31 153), the Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth variant of this (P-POSSUM) were matched from the Copeland Risk Adjusted Barometer (C2-Ai, Cambridge, UK). The primary outcome was risk score discrimination of 30-day mortality as evaluated by area-under-receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) statistics. Calibration plots and outcomes according to risk decile and time were also explored.

Results

All four risk scores showed high discrimination (AUROC) for 30-day mortality (SORT=0.922, NZRISK=0.909, P-POSSUM=0.893; POSSUM=0.881) but consistently over-predicted risk. SORT exhibited the best discrimination and calibration. Thresholds to denote the highest and second-highest deciles of SORT risk (>3.92% and 1.52-3.92%) captured the majority of deaths (76% and 13%, respectively) and hospital-acquired complications. Year-on-year SORT calibration performance drifted towards over-prediction, reflecting a decrease in 30-day mortality over time despite an increase in the surgical population risk.

Conclusions

SORT was the best performing risk score in predicting 30-day mortality after surgery. Categorising patients based on SORT into low, medium (80-90th percentile), and high risk (90-100th percentile) might guide future allocation of perioperative resources. No tools were sufficiently calibrated to support shared decision-making based on absolute predictions of risk.

Preoperative smoking cessation program in patients undergoing intermediate to high-risk surgery: a randomized, single-blinded, controlled, superiority trial

Background

At present, effectively implementing smoking cessation programs in the health care system constitutes a major challenge. A unique opportunity to initiate smoking cessation focuses on smokers scheduled for surgery. These patients are not only highly motivated to quit smoking but also likely to benefit from a reduction in postoperative complications which may translate into a decrease of costs. Nevertheless, surgical patients are not routinely informed about the benefits of preoperative smoking cessation. Potential reasons for this missed opportunity may be the lack of time and training of surgeons and anaesthesiologists. We therefore aim to analyse the impact of a preoperative high-intensity smoking cessation intervention on surgical complications up to a 90-day postoperative period in patients of various surgical disciplines. The hypothesis is that a preoperative smoking cessation program improves outcomes in smokers undergoing intermediate to high-risk surgery.

Methods

The present study is a single-centre, randomized trial with two parallel groups of smokers scheduled for surgery comparing surgery alone and surgery with preoperative smoking cessation. We plan to randomize 251 patients. The primary objective is to compare complications between patients with an institutional multifaceted smoking cessation intervention starting 4 weeks before surgery compared to patients in the advice-only group (control group) within a 90-day postoperative period. The primary endpoint is the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI®) within 90 days of surgery. Secondary outcomes include the length of hospital stay, cost of care, quality of life, smoking abstinence, and reduction in nicotine consumption.

Discussion

The hypothesis is that a preoperative smoking cessation program improves outcomes in smokers undergoing surgery.

Trial registration

BASEC #2021-02004; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05192837. Registered on January 14, 2022.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06628-8.

Effects of lymphocyte and neutrophil counts and their time courses on mortality in patients with postoperative pneumonia

The prognostic significance of absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) and absolute neutrophil count (ANC) remains unclear in patients with postoperative pneumonia (POP). The study objectives were to investigate the prognostic effects of ALC and ANC in POP patients, and to evaluate the time courses of ALC and ANC during hospitalization. This post-hoc analysis of a single-center prospective observational study evaluated consecutive POP patients, and comparatively analyzed community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients to highlight features of POP. In total, 228 POP patients and 1027 CAP patients were assessed. Severe lymphopenia (ALC < 500 cells/μL) at diagnosis was associated with worse 90-day survival in both types of pneumonia. In POP patients, neutrophilia (ANC > 7500 cells/μL) was associated with better survival, whereas CAP patients with neutrophilia tended to have a lower survival rate. Prolonged lymphopenia and delayed increase in neutrophils were characteristic time-course changes of non-survivors in POP. The time courses of ALC and ANC between survivors and non-survivors in POP trended differently from those in CAP. Our study showed that ALC and ANC at pneumonia diagnosis can serve as prognostic factors in POP patients. Differences in time-course changes of ALC and ANC between survivors and non-survivors may provide important information for future immunological research in pneumonia.

The mortality burden in patients with hip fractures and dementia

PURPOSE

Dementia is strongly associated with postoperative death in patients subjected to hip fracture surgery. Nevertheless, there is a distinct lack of research investigating the cause of postoperative mortality in patients with dementia. This study aims to investigate the distribution and the risk of cause-specific postoperative mortality in patients with dementia compared to the general hip fracture population.

METHODS

All adults who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between 1/1/2008 and 31/12/2017 were considered for inclusion. Pathological, conservatively managed fractures, and reoperations were excluded. The database was retrieved by cross-referencing the Swedish National Quality Registry for Hip Fracture patients with the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare quality registers. A Poisson regression model was used to determine the association between dementia and all-cause as well as cause-specific 30-day postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

134,915 cases met the inclusion criteria, of which 20% had dementia at the time of surgery. The adjusted risk of all-cause 30-day postoperative mortality was 67% higher in patients with dementia after hip fracture surgery compared to patients without dementia [adj. IRR (95% CI): 1.67 (1.60-1.75), p < 0.001]. The risk of cause-specific mortality was also higher in patients with dementia, with up to a sevenfold increase in the risk cerebrovascular mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI): 7.43 (4.99-11.07), p < 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Hip fracture patients with dementia have a higher risk of death in the first 30 days postoperatively, with a substantially higher risk of mortality due to cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular events, compared to patients without dementia.

[A multifactorial risk index for evaluation of anesthetic risk in dogs: the LeiV-Risk-Index]

OBJECTIVE

The Leipzig Veterinary Risk-Index - "LeiV-Risk-Index" is a multifactorial risk index developed to enable an improved objective assessment of the anesthetic risk in dogs. The scoring system is based on 10 risk factors affecting perioperative mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of the LeiV-Risk-Index and its risk factors as well as to perform a direct comparison with the ASA-classification.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

An online survey was conducted among veterinarians working in small animal medicine throughout Germany. Participants received a questionnaire containing information on 15 selected patients. They were asked to classify the patients according to the LeiV-Risk-Index and ASA-classification and to answer several questions concerning their professional background. The results were statistically analyzed considering the consistency among veterinarians of rating the different patients by using Fleiss'-Kappa. The correlation of LeiV-Risk-Index and ASA-classification was calculated.

RESULTS

The consistency of all assigned LeiV-risk classes between participants was moderate (κ = 0.55) and higher than classification by ASA (κ = 0.33). On average, 3 different LeiV-risk classes and 4 different ASA-classes were assigned for one patient. There was a positive correlation between LeiV-risk class and increasing ASA-class. No effect of gender or clinical experience of the veterinarian could be demonstrated on ranking patients. There was also no effect of how confident veterinarians felt in applying the LeiV-Risk-Index.

CONCLUSION UND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

The LeiV-Risk-Index is the first index available in veterinary medicine for assessing anesthetic risk that is based on objective risk criteria and whose objectivity exceeds that of the ASA classification. Anesthetic patients can thus be evaluated more consistently in veterinary medicine as well. Utility and practicability were positively received by 95 % of the participants. Further revision of individual risk criteria needs to be reconsidered.

Risk factors and prognoses of invasive Candida infection in surgical critical ill patients with perforated peptic ulcer

BACKGROUND

The risk of invasive Candida infection (ICI) is high in patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) who received laparotomy or laparoscopic surgery, but the risk factors and predictors of morbidity outcomes remain uncertain. This study aims to identify the risk factors of ICI in surgical critically ill PPU patients and to evaluate the impact on patient's outcomes.

METHODS

This is a single-center, retrospective study, with a total of 170 surgical critically ill PPU patients. Thirty-seven patients were ICI present and 133 were ICI absent subjects. The differences in pulmonary complications according to invasive candidiasis were determined by the Mann-Whitney U test. Evaluation of predictors contributing to ICI and 90-day mortality was conducted by using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Candida albicans was the primary pathogen of ICI (74.29%). The infected patients had higher incidence of bacteremia (p < 0.001), longer intensive care unit (p < 0.001) and hospital (p < 0.001) stay, longer ventilator duration (p < 0.001) and increased hospital mortality (p = 0.02). In the multivariate analysis, serum lactate level measured at hospital admission was independently associated with the occurrence of ICI (p = 0.03). Liver cirrhosis (p = 0.03) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (p = 0.007) were independently associated with the 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood lactate level measured at hospital admission could be a predictor of ICI and the surgical critically ill PPU patients with liver cirrhosis and higher SOFA score are associated with poor outcomes.

Multi-center validation of machine learning model for preoperative prediction of postoperative mortality

Accurate prediction of postoperative mortality is important for not only successful postoperative patient care but also for information-based shared decision-making with patients and efficient allocation of medical resources. This study aimed to create a machine-learning prediction model for 30-day mortality after a non-cardiac surgery that adapts to the manageable amount of clinical information as input features and is validated against multi-centered rather than single-centered data. Data were collected from 454,404 patients over 18 years of age who underwent non-cardiac surgeries from four independent institutions. We performed a retrospective analysis of the retrieved data. Only 12–18 clinical variables were used for model training. Logistic regression, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and deep neural network methods were applied to compare the prediction performances. To reduce overfitting and create a robust model, bootstrapping and grid search with tenfold cross-validation were performed. The XGBoost method in Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) data delivers the best performance in terms of the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.9376) and the area under the precision-recall curve (0.1593). The predictive performance was the best when the SNUH model was validated with Ewha Womans University Medical Center data (AUROC, 0.941). Preoperative albumin, prothrombin time, and age were the most important features in the model for each hospital. It is possible to create a robust artificial intelligence prediction model applicable to multiple institutions through a light predictive model using only minimal preoperative information that can be automatically extracted from each hospital.

Significance of osteopenia in elderly patients undergoing emergency gastrointestinal surgery

Aim

Frailty assessment in elderly patients is crucial to predict the postoperative course, considering that frailty is highly associated with postoperative complications and mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of osteopenia as a risk factor for severe postoperative complications in elderly patients who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

Methods

This study comprised 103 elderly patients who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Osteopenia was diagnosed by measuring bone mineral density, which was calculated as the average pixel density in the midvertebral core at the 11th thoracic vertebra on the preoperative plain computed tomography image. We retrospectively investigated the relationship between preoperative osteopenia and severe postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo classification ≥III). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the risk factors for severe postoperative complications.

Results

Twenty-three patients (22.3%) developed severe postoperative complications. The optimal cutoff value of bone mineral density for severe postoperative complications was 119.5 Hounsfield unit (HU) and 39 patients (37.9%) were diagnosed with osteopenia. The univariate analysis revealed that the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status of ≥3 (P = .0084), hemoglobin levels (P = .0026), albumin levels (P < .001), sarcopenia (P = .015), and osteopenia (P < .001) were significantly associated with severe postoperative complications. The multivariate analysis showed that osteopenia (P = .014) was an independent risk factor for severe postoperative complications.

Conclusion

Osteopenia may be a risk factor for severe postoperative complications in elderly patients after emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

Factors associated with posoperative mortality in high perioperative risk patients. Cohort study

Introduction: Determining perioperative risk is part of the strategies implemented with the aim of reducing morbidity and mortality in the surgical population in the world. Although there is no established definition, high perioperative risk is associated with the group of patients with the highest disease burden. Objective: To determine postoperative mortality and its associated factors in patients with high perioperative risk. Methods: Analytical observational cohort study of high perioperative risk patients included in the database (n = 843) of the anesthesia program in a high complexity hospital in Colombia, between January 2011 and April 2018. Pre and postoperative variables were analyzed using uni and multivariate logistic regression per protocol. Overall and stratified mortality were estimated and factors associated with their occurrence were analyzed. Finally, survival was analyzed, the primary outcome being overall cohort mortality and stratified high cardiovascular risk mortality. Results: Cumulative 7-day mortality was 3.68% (95% CI 2.40-4.95%) and 30-day mortality was 10.08% (95% CI 8.05-12.12%). Perioperative mortality in the high cardiovascular risk group in the first 7 days was 3.60% (95% CI 1.13-6.07%) and 14.86% (95% CI 10.15-19.58%) at 30 days. The following preoperative variables were associated with mortality: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, limited functional class and abdominal aortic aneurysm. A strong association was observed between postoperative complications and a significant increase in mortality rate; the most relevant complications were cerebrovascular events and cardiogenic shock. Conclusions: In this group of high perioperative risk patients,  and in the subgroup of high cardiovascular risk patients, overall mortality at 7 and at 30 days was estimated to be above values reported in various countries. Mortality was significantly increased by the presence of preoperative factors and postoperative complications.

Tailoring prehabilitation to address the multifactorial nature of functional capacity for surgery

Mounting evidence suggests that recovery begins before the surgical incision. The pre-surgery phase of recovery - the preparation for optimal surgical recovery - can be reinforced with prehabilitation. Prehabilitation is the approach of enhancing the functional capacity of the individual to enable them to withstand a stressful event. With this narrative review, we apply the Wilson & Cleary conceptual model of patient outcomes to specify the complex and integrative relationship of health factors that limit functional capacity before surgery. To have the greatest impact on patient outcomes, prehabilitation programs require individualized and coordinated care from medical, nutritional, psychosocial, and exercise services. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A novel machine learning approach to identify social risk factors associated with textbook outcomes after surgery

BACKGROUND

Identifying social determinants of health has become a priority for many researchers, health care providers, and payers. The vast amount of patient and population-level data available on social determinants creates, however, both an opportunity and a challenge as these data can be difficult to synthesize and analyze.

METHODS

Medicare beneficiaries who underwent 1 of 4 common operations between 2013 and 2017 were identified. Using a machine learning algorithm, the primary independent variable, surgery social determinants of health index, was derived from 15 common, publicly available social determents of health measures. After development of a surgery social determinants of health index, multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association of this index with textbook outcomes, as well as the component metrics of textbook outcomes.

RESULTS

A novel surgery social determinants of health index was developed with factor component weights that varied relative to their impact on postoperative outcomes. Factors with the highest weight in the algorithm relative to postoperative outcomes were the proportion of noninstitutionalized civilians with a disability and persons without high school diploma, while components with the lowest weights were the proportion of households with more people than rooms and persons below poverty. Overall, an increase in surgery social determinants of health index was associated with 6% decreased odds (95% confidence interval: 0.93-0.94) of achieving a textbook outcome. In addition, an increase in surgery social determinants of health index was associated with increased odds of each of the individual components of textbook outcome; ranging from 3% increased odds (95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.04) for 90-day readmission to 10% increased odds (95% confidence interval: 1.09-1.11) for 90-day mortality. Further, there was 6% increased odds (95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.07) of experiencing a complication and 7% increased odds (95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.07) of having an extended length of stay. Minority patients from a high surgery social determinants of health index had 38% lower odds (95% confidence interval: 0.60-0.65) of achieving a textbook outcome compared with White/non-Hispanic patients from a low surgery social determinants of health index area.

CONCLUSION

Using a machine learning approach, we developed a novel social determents of health index to predict the probability of achieving a textbook outcome after surgery.

Comparison of the clinical frailty score (CFS) to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) risk calculator in all patients undergoing emergency laparotomy

AIM

There is evolving evidence that preoperative frailty predicts outcomes of older adults undergoing emergency laparotomy (EmLap). We assessed frailty scoring in an emergency surgical population that included patients of all ages and then compared this to an established perioperative prognostic score.

METHOD

Data from the prospective Emergency Laparoscopic and Laparotomy Scottish Audit (ELLSA; November 2017-October 2018) was used. All adults over 18 were included. Frailty was measured using 7-point clinical frailty score (CFS).

OUTCOME MEASURES

30-day mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), 30-day readmission. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated for CFS (1-7) and compared to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) score with Forest plots used to compare 30-day mortality across CFS and NELA categories.

RESULTS

A total of 2246 patients (median age 65 years [IQR 51-75]; female 51%) underwent EmLap (60% for colorectal pathology). A total of 10.6% were frail preoperatively (≥CFS 5). As CFS increased so did 30-day mortality (2.1% CFS1 to 25.3% CFS6 and 7; ꭓ² 78.2, p < 0.001) and median LOS (10 days CFS1 to 20 days CFS6 and 7; p < 0.001). Readmission rates did not differ significantly across CFS. ROC (95% CI) for mortality was 0.71 (0.65-0.77) for CFS and 0.84 (0.78-0.89) for NELA. Addition of CFS to NELA did not increase ROC value.

CONCLUSION

This study supports the prognostic role of frailty in the emergency surgical setting, finding increasing frailty to be associated with increased mortality and longer LOS in adults of all ages. Although NELA performed better, CFS remained predictive and has the advantage of being calculated preoperatively to aid decision-making and treatment planning.

Perioperative Risk Stratification and Modification

This article discusses the important topic of perioperative risk stratification and the interventions that can be used in the perioperative period for risk modification. It begins with a brief overview of the commonly used scoring systems, risk-prediction models, and assessments of functional capacity and discusses some of the evidence behind each. It then moves on to examine how perioperative risk can be modified through the use of shared decision making, management of multimorbidity, and prehabilitation programs, before considering what the future of risk stratification and modification may hold.

The association between unanticipated prolonged post-anaesthesia care unit length of stay and early postoperative deterioration: A retrospective cohort study

This study aimed to investigate whether there was an association between an unanticipated prolonged post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU) length of stay and early postoperative deterioration, as defined as the need for a rapid response team activation, within the first seven days of surgery. We conducted a single-centre retrospective cohort study of adult surgical patients, who stayed at least one night in hospital, and were not admitted to critical care immediately postoperatively, between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2019. A total of 11,885 cases were analysed. PACU length of stay was significantly associated with rapid response team activation on both univariate (odds ratio (OR) per increment 1.57, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.45 to 1.69, P < 0.001) and multivariate analysis (OR per increment 1.41, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.55, P < 0.001). Patients who stayed less than one hour were at low risk of deterioration (absolute risk 3.7%). In patients staying longer than one hour, the absolute increase in risk was small but observable within six hours of PACU discharge. Compar\ed to a one-hour length of stay, a five-hour stay had a relative risk of 4.9 (95% CI 3.7 to 6.1). Other factors associated with rapid response team activation included non-elective surgery (OR 1.78, P < 0.001) and theatre length of stay (OR per increment 1.61, P < 0.001). PACU length of stay was also independently associated with predefined complications and unplanned intensive care unit admission postoperatively. In our cohort, an unanticipated prolonged PACU length of stay of over one hour was associated with an increased incidence of rapid response team activation in the first seven days postoperatively.

Application of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in the risk assessment of elderly hip fracture surgery: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Since Mohamed et al. analyzed 2326 orthopedic cases in 2002 and believed that the POSSUM formula can be directly used to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in orthopedic patients, applications of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in the hip fracture surgery have been mostly reported in the field of orthopedics, but there are still some inconsistencies in the related reports.

Methods

The electronic library was searched for all literature that met the purpose from its inception to 2021. Relative risk (RR) was selected to evaluate whether the model could be used to assess the risk of surgery in patients with elderly hip fractures. Finally, sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were performed.

Results

Thirteen studies were finally included, including 9 retrospective and 4 prospective studies.The morbidity analysis includes 11 studies, and the result was RR = 1.07 (95% CI 0.93–1.24), The mortality analysis includes 11 studies on POSSUM and 5 studies on P-POSSUM. The results of mortality by POSSUM and by P-POSSUM were RR = 1.93 (95% CI 1.21–3.08) and RR = 1.15 (95% CI 0.89–1.50), respectively. POSSUM had more accuracy to predict mortality for sample < 200 subgroup(RR = 2.45; 95% CI 0.71–8.42) than sample > 200 subgroup(RR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.06–2.40), and in the subgroup of hip fractures that did not distinguish between specific fracture types(RR = 1.69, 95% CI 0.87–3.32) than intertrochanteric neck fracture subgroup(RR = 5.04, 95% CI 1.07–23.75) and femoral femoral fracture subgroup(RR = 1.43,95% CI 1.10–1.84).

Conclusion

POSSUM can be used to predict morbidity in elderly hip fractures. The P-POSSUM was more accurate in predicting mortality in elderly hip fracture patients compared to the POSSUM, whose predictive value for mortality was influenced by the sample size and type of fracture studied. In addition, we believe that appropriate improvements to the POSSUM system are needed to address the characteristics of orthopedic surgery.

Exploring red cell distribution width as a potential risk factor in emergency bowel surgery—A retrospective cohort study

Increased preoperative red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with higher mortality following non-cardiac surgery in patients older than 65 years. Little is known if this association holds for all adult emergency laparotomy patients and whether it affects 30-day or long-term mortality. Thus, we examined the relationship between increased RDW and postoperative mortality. Furthermore, we investigated the prognostic worth of anisocytosis and explored a possible association between increased RDW and frailty in this cohort. We conducted a retrospective, single centre National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database study at St Mary’s Hospital Imperial NHS Trust between January 2014 and April 2018. A total of 356 patients were included. Survival models were developed using Cox regression analysis, whereas RDW and frailty were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Underlying model assumptions were checked, including discrimination and calibration. We internally validated our models using bootstrap resampling. There were 33 (9.3%) deaths within 30-days and 72 (20.2%) overall. Median RDW values for 30-day mortality were 13.8% (IQR 13.1%-15%) in survivors and 14.9% (IQR 13.7%-16.1%) in non-survivors, p = 0.007. Similarly, median RDW values were lower in overall survivors (13.7% (IQR 13%-14.7%) versus 14.9% (IQR 13.9%-15.9%) (p<0.001)). Mortality increased across quartiles of RDW, as did the proportion of frail patients. Anisocytosis was not associated with 30-day mortality but demonstrated a link with overall death rates. Increasing RDW was associated with a higher probability of frailty for 30-day (Odds ratio (OR) 4.3, 95% CI 1.22–14.43, (p = 0.01)) and overall mortality (OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.68–14.09, (p = 0.001)). We were able to show that preoperative anisocytosis is associated with greater long-term mortality after emergency laparotomy. Increasing RDW demonstrates a relationship with frailty. Given that RDW is readily available at no additional cost, future studies should prospectively validate the role of RDW in the NELA cohort nationally.

Perioperative risk prediction using the POSSUM and V-POSSUM models in symptomatic carotid stenosis

Summary: Background: This study aimed to evaluate risk factors for adverse outcomes and perioperative stroke and death in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis undergoing open endarterectomy (CEA). The second objective was to assess the predictive value of the POSSUM and V-POSSUM models for predicting morbidity and mortality from CEA in symptomatic carotid stenosis. Patients and methods: A retrospective observational study of all patients admitted to a single center who underwent CEA for symptomatic carotid stenosis was performed. 320 patients from 1999 to 2013 were included. Postoperative complications, 30-day survival, and stroke rates were recorded. The observed outcomes were compared to the POSSUM and V-POSSUM expected mortality (observed to expected ratio (O:E)). Results: The mean age was 68.1±10.0 years. 215 patients were male (67%). Risk factors for surgical complications were: age, with a higher risk in both groups of less than 60 years and more than 75 years of age (p=0.04), a higher ASA score (p=0.04), and hyperlipidemia (p=0.017). Risk factors for the combined endpoint stroke or death were a higher ASA category (p<0.001), stroke as indication for CEA (p 0.022), and a high degree of stenosis (p=0.019). For POSSUM predicted mortality, there was a good O:E ratio in the two lowest risk groups, but a 2-fold overprediction of death or stroke in the two high-risk strata. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.43–0.73). The V-POSSUM showed a better fit in the high-risk groups, but an underprediction of mortality in the low-risk strata. Conclusions: Age and comorbid conditions are risk factors for adverse outcomes after CEA. The V-POSSUM model is better than POSSUM to predict postoperative death and stroke after CEA in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis and a high preoperative physiological score. In patients with low physiological scores, both POSSUM and V-POSSUM show a limited predictive value.

Classical Regression and Predictive Modeling

BACKGROUND

With the advent of personalized and stratified medicine, there has been much discussion about predictive modeling and the role of classical regression in modern medical research. We describe and distinguish the goals in these 2 frameworks for analysis.

METHODS

The assumptions underlying and utility of classical regression are reviewed for continuous and binary outcomes. The tenets of predictive modeling are then discussed and contrasted. Principles are illustrated by simulation and through application of methods to a neurosurgical study.

RESULTS

Classical regression can be used for insights into causal mechanisms if careful thought is given to the role of variables of interest and potential confounders. In predictive modeling, interest lies more in accuracy of predictions and so alternative metrics are used to judge adequacy of models and methods; methods which average predictions over several contending models can improve predictive performance but these do not admit a single risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

Both classical regression and predictive modeling have important roles in modern medical research. Understanding the distinction between the 2 frameworks for analysis is important to place them in their appropriate context and interpreting findings from published studies appropriately.

Which Frailty Evaluation Method Can Better Improve the Predictive Ability of the SASA for Postoperative Complications of Patients Undergoing Elective Abdominal Surgery?

Purpose

To determine which frailty method can better improve the predictive ability of the Surgical Apgar Score combined with American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification (SASA).

Patients and Methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted. A total of 194 elderly patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery were included. Preoperative frailty using FRAIL questionnaire, frailty index (FI), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and SASA scores was assessed. Primary outcome was in-hospital Clavien-Dindo ≥grade II complications. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the association between frailty and complications. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to explore the predictive ability of frailty.

Results

According to the FRAIL, FI and CFS criteria, the prevalence of frailty in the study population was 43.8%, 32.5%, and 36.6%, respectively. After adjusting for all covariates, frailty was significantly associated with postoperative complications in hospital by FRAIL [odds ratio: 5.11, 95% CI: 1.41–18.44, P = 0.013], by FI [OR: 4.25, 95% CI: 1.21–14.90, P = 0.024] and by CFS [OR: 5.10, 95% CI: 1.52–17.17, P = 0.008]. The area under the curve (AUC) for SASA was 0.768 (95% CI: 0.702–0.826). Addition of frailty assessment (FRAIL, FI and CFS) increased the AUC to 0.787 (95% CI: 0.722–0.842), 0.798 (95% CI: 0.734–0.852), and 0.815 (95% CI: 0.753–0.867), respectively. Compared to SASA, only addition of CFS had a significant difference (P = 0.0478).

Conclusion

Frailty is an effective predictor of postoperative complications in elderly Chinese patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery. Frailty assessment of CFS can better improve the predictive ability of SASA.

Comprehensive risk score of the E-PASS as a prognostic indicator for patients after elective and emergency curative colorectal cancer surgery: A multicenter retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of the comprehensive risk score (CRS) of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress for managing patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) who underwent elective and emergency colorectal cancer surgery with curative intent.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

CRS, which is calculated based on both clinical and surgical factors, is a good predictor of postoperative complications and mortality. However, the impact of CRS in CRC prognosis remains unclear.

METHODS

Patients with CRC who underwent curative resection between 2010 and 2019 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The cohort was divided into the low and high CRS groups. The prognostic value of CRS was evaluated via Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The CRS cutoff value was obtained using the Youden index applied to OS curves and have not been validated by any validation cohorts.

RESULTS

In total, 2407 patients, including 1359 and 1048 patients with low and high CRS, respectively, were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analysis revealed that a CRS was an independent prognostic factor of overall and recurrence-free survival regardless of disease stage. Furthermore, adjuvant chemotherapy was beneficial for the survival of patients with stage III CRC in both high and low CRS groups; however, the survival benefit was limited in elderly high CRS patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CRS was a strong prognostic factor for CRC regardless of disease stage and might be considered as a biomarker for selecting elderly patients who are eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy.

Medical Gas Plasma—A Potent ROS-Generating Technology for Managing Intraoperative Bleeding Complications

Cold medical gas plasmas are under pre-clinical investigation concerning their hemostatic activity and could be applied for intra-operative bleeding control in the future. The technological leap innovation was their generation at body temperature, thereby causing no thermal harm to the tissue and ensuring tissue integrity. This directly contrasts with current techniques such as electrocautery, which induces hemostasis by carbonizing the tissue using a heated electrode. However, the necrotized tissue is prone to fall, raising the risk of post-operative complications such as secondary bleedings or infection. In recent years, various studies have reported on the ability of medical gas plasmas to induce blood coagulation, including several suggestions concerning their mode of action. As non-invasive and gentle hemostatic agents, medical gas plasmas could be particularly eligible for vulnerable tissues, e.g., colorectal surgery and neurosurgery. Further, their usage could be beneficial regarding the prevention of post-operative bleedings due to the absence or sloughing of eschar. However, no clinical trials or individual healing attempts for medical gas plasmas have been reported to pave the way for clinical approvement until now, despite promising results in experimental animal models. In this light, the present mini-review aims to emphasize the potential of medical gas plasmas to serve as a hemostatic agent in clinical procedures. Providing a detailed overview of the current state of knowledge, feasible application fields are discussed, and possible obstacles are addressed.

Diffuse Appendicular Peritonitis: Laparoscopic vs Open Access — Viewpoint From Aside

The perforative acute appendicitis with the development of diffuse peritonitis increases the incidence of postoperative complications to 47%, and mortality to 3%. Mortality in the case of the development of diffuse purulent peritonitis makes 4.5-58%, and it can exceed 70% in severe forms of diffuse peritonitis with the development of infectious-toxic shock and multiple organ failure. National Clinical Guidelines for acute appendicitis with diffuse peritonitis allow for appendectomy from both the median and laparoscopic access in the absence of general contraindications to the creation of pneumoperitoneum. However, despite the proven advantages of laparoscopic appendectomy, there are opponents of its use in diffuse forms of appendicular peritonitis. An increased number of postoperative abscesses with a minimally invasive approach has been reported in literature; however, recent randomized studies refute this fact. There is also evidence that the laparoscopic method for appendicular peritonitis often leads to a lengthening of the operation time and higher operating costs, but at the same time there is a decrease in postoperative pain syndrome, a reduction in the length of inpatient treatment and early social and labor rehabilitation, which leads to an overall decrease in hospital costs. Thus, to date, there is no generally accepted opinion about the advisability of laparoscopic access for appendicular peritonitis. At the moment, the presence of diffuse peritonitis is the most common intraoperative reason for refusing a minimally invasive surgical treatment. However, there is a tendency to trying to standardize indications and contraindications, which was the objective of our literature review.

Association of Serum Creatinine Level with Prognosis of Laparotomy for Acute Mesenteric Ischemia after Cardiovascular Surgery

Introduction

Acute mesenteric ischemia is a life-threatening complication after cardiovascular surgery with a mortality rate of 52.9–81.3%. However, few studies have evaluated the predictors of clinical outcome after treatment for acute mesenteric ischemia following cardiovascular surgery. Therefore, this study aimed to elucidate prognostic factors in patients who underwent laparotomy for acute mesenteric ischemia after cardiovascular surgery.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 29 patients (20 men and 9 women; median age, 71.0 years) who underwent laparotomy for acute mesenteric ischemia after cardiovascular surgery between January 2010 and August 2020. These patients were classified into the survivor group (comprising patients who were discharged or referred to another hospital, n = 16) and the nonsurvivor group (comprising those who experienced in-hospital mortality, n = 13). We compared clinical parameters between the groups to identify the predictors of outcomes.

Results

More patients in the nonsurvivor group underwent emergency cardiovascular surgery (62.5% vs. 100%, p = 0.017) and received hemodialysis (12.5% vs. 61.5%, p = 0.008) at the onset of acute mesenteric ischemia than those in the survivor group. The prelaparotomy serum creatinine level was higher in the nonsurvivor group than in the survivor group (1.27 vs. 2.33 mg/dL, p = 0.004). Logistic regression analysis revealed an association between preoperative serum creatinine level and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 5.047, p = 0.046), and Cox regression analysis demonstrated a relationship between serum creatinine level and in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio 1.610, p = 0.009). The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic analysis) for the serum creatinine level was 0.813. Furthermore, the optimal cutoff value of the serum creatinine level was 1.59 mg/dL with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.846 and 0.687, respectively, in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions

The elevated serum creatinine level was associated with a poor clinical outcome after surgery for acute mesenteric ischemia following cardiovascular surgery.

Perioperative risk of pancreatic head resection-nomogram-based prediction of severe postoperative complications as a decisional aid for clinical practice

PURPOSE

To develop nomograms for pre- and early-postoperative risk assessment of patients undergoing pancreatic head resection.

METHODS

Clinical data from 956 patients were collected in a prospectively maintained database. A test (n = 772) and a validation cohort (n = 184) were randomly generated. Uni- and multi-variate analysis and nomogram construction were performed to predict severe postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo Grades III-V) in the test cohort. External validation was performed with the validation cohort.

RESULTS

We identified ASA score, indication for surgery, body mass index (BMI), preoperative white blood cell (WBC) count, and preoperative alkaline phosphatase as preoperative factors associated with an increased perioperative risk for complications. Additionally to ASA score, BMI, indication for surgery, and the preoperative alkaline phosphatase, the following postoperative parameters were identified as risk factors in the early postoperative setting: the need for intraoperative blood transfusion, operation time, maximum WBC on postoperative day (POD) 1-3, and maximum serum amylase on POD 1-3. Two nomograms were developed on the basis of these risk factors and showed accurate risk estimation for severe postoperative complications (ROC-AUC-values for Grades III-V-preoperative nomogram: 0.673 (95%, CI: 0.626-0.721); postoperative nomogram: 0.734 (95%, CI: 0.691-0.778); each p ≤ 0.001). Validation yielded ROC-AUC-values for Grades III-V-preoperative nomogram of 0.676 (95%, CI: 0.586-0.766) and postoperative nomogram of 0.677 (95%, CI: 0.591-0.762); each p = 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Easy-to-use nomograms for risk estimation in the pre- and early-postoperative setting were developed. Accurate risk estimation can support the decisional process, especially for IPMN-patients with an increased perioperative risk.

Tools and scores for general and cardiovascular perioperative risk assessment: a narrative review

The number of surgical procedures in the world is large and in Brazil it has been expressing a growth trend higher than the population growth. In this context, perioperative risk assessment safeguards the optimization of the outcomes sought by the procedures. For this evaluation, anamnesis and physical examination constitute an irreplaceable initial stage which may or may not be followed by complementary exams, interventions for clinical stabilization and application of risk estimation tools. The use of these tools can be very useful in order to obtain objective data for decision making by weighing surgical risk and benefit. Global and cardiovascular risk assessments are of greatest interest in the preoperative period, however information about their methods is scattered in the literature. Some tools such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) are more widely known, while others are less known but can provide valuable information. Here, the main indices, scores and calculators that address general and cardiovascular perioperative risk were detailed.

Mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in women

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have focused on patient-related risk factors to explain the higher mortality risk in women undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether hospital-related factors influence outcomes following AAA repair in women.

METHODS

Patients undergoing elective AAA repair in 61 hospitals in the Netherlands were identified from the Dutch Surgical Aneurysm Audit registry (2013-2018). A mixed-effects logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the effect of sex on in-hospital and/or 30-day mortality. This analysis accounted for possible correlation of outcomes among patients who were treated in the same hospital, by adding a hospital-specific random effect to the statistical model. The analysis adjusted for patient-related risk factors and hospital volume of open surgical repair (OSR) and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR).

RESULTS

Some 12 034 patients were included in the analysis. The mortality rate was higher in women than among men: 53 of 1780 (3.0 per cent) versus 152 of 10 254 (1.5 per cent) respectively. Female sex was significantly associated with mortality after correction for patient- and hospital-related factors (odds ratio 1.68, 95 per cent c.i. 1.20 to 2.37). OSR volume was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.91 (0.85 to 0.95) per 10-procedure increase) whereas no such relationship was identified with EVAR volume (OR 1.03 (1.01 to 1.05) per 10-procedure increase).

CONCLUSION

Women are at higher risk of death after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair irrespective of patient- and hospital-related factors.

Cytoreductive Surgery With Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy: Analysis of Perioperative Risk Factors and Impact on Outcome

Background

Cytoreductive surgery plus hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS + HIPEC) is an effective treatment option for appropriately selected patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis. Our aim was to analyze a multidisciplinary approach and to study the perioperative risk factors associated with morbidity and mortality.

Methods

We reviewed all patients who underwent CRS + HIPEC from January 2019 till December 2020 at our oncologic center. Patient demographics, risk scores, intraoperative variables, postoperative care, analgesia protocol, and adverse events (AE) within 30 days after treatment were collected and statistically analyzed.

Results

Of the 98 patients evaluated preoperatively by a multidisciplinary team, 39 patients required active optimization. The median age was 61 years, and 67 were women. Most tumors were appendiceal in origin. The median peritoneal cancer index (PCI) score was 12, and the median operative time length (OTL) was 400 minutes. Body mass index, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of morbidity, PCI score, crystalloid volume, cell concentrates, and OTL were associated with postoperative intensive care unit admission (p <0.05). Epidural analgesia was given to 74 patients. AEs occurred in 39 patients, and 25 of the AEs were classified as mild or moderate. The intraoperative variables associated with development of AEs were anesthesia technique, estimated blood loss, crystalloid volume, cell concentrates, OTL, and analgesia protocol (p <0.05). On multivariate analysis, crystalloid volume >6 L, intravenous sufentanil analgesic protocol, and OTL were associated with 67%, 38%, and 15% increased risk of AE, respectively.

Conclusion

Our study highlighted the importance of a perioperative protocol with a standardized multidisciplinary approach in order to decrease the incidence of postoperative AE.

Anaesthesia for Major Urological Surgery

This article focuses on the anesthetic considerations for major cancer urology surgeries such as cystectomies, nephrectomies, and radical prostatectomies. It aims to explore the anesthetic considerations for both open and minimally invasive techniques.

Follow-up after emergency laparotomy suggests high one- and five-year mortality with risk stratified by ASA

INTRODUCTION

We investigated all-cause mortality following emergency laparotomy at 1 and 5 years. We aimed to establish a basis from which to advise patients and relatives on long-term mortality.

METHODS

Local data from a historical audit of emergency laparotomies from 2010 to 2012 were combined with National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) data from 2017 to 2020. Covariates collected included deprivation status, preoperative blood work, baseline renal function, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, operative time, anaesthetic time and gender. Associations between covariates and survival were determined using multivariate logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis. We used patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy between 2015 and 2020 as controls.

RESULTS

ASA grade was the best discriminator of long-term outcome following laparotomy (n=894) but was not a predictor of survival following cholecystectomy (n=1,834), with mortality being significantly greater in the laparotomy group. Following cholecystectomy, 95% confidence intervals for survival at 5 years were 98-99%. Following laparotomy these intervals were: ASA grade 1, 79-96%; ASA grade 2, 69-82%; ASA grade 3, 44-58%; ASA grade 4, 33-48%; and ASA grade 5, 4-51%. The majority of deaths occurred after 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency laparotomy is associated with a significantly increased risk of death in the following 5 years. The risk is strongly correlated to ASA grade. Thirty-day mortality estimation is not a good basis on which to advise patients and carers on long-term outcomes. ASA grade can be used to predict long-term outcomes and to guide patient counsel.

Data analytics and artificial intelligence in predicting length of stay, readmission, and mortality: a population-based study of surgical management of colorectal cancer

Data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) have been used to predict patient outcomes after colorectal cancer surgery. A prospectively maintained colorectal cancer database was used, covering 4336 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery between 2003 and 2019. The 47 patient parameters included demographics, peri- and post-operative outcomes, surgical approaches, complications, and mortality. Data analytics were used to compare the importance of each variable and AI prediction models were built for length of stay (LOS), readmission, and mortality. Accuracies of at least 80% have been achieved. The significant predictors of LOS were age, ASA grade, operative time, presence or absence of a stoma, robotic or laparoscopic approach to surgery, and complications. The model with support vector regression (SVR) algorithms predicted the LOS with an accuracy of 83% and mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.69 days. The significant predictors of readmission were age, laparoscopic procedure, stoma performed, preoperative nodal (N) stage, operation time, operation mode, previous surgery type, LOS, and the specific procedure. A BI-LSTM model predicted readmission with 87.5% accuracy, 84% sensitivity, and 90% specificity. The significant predictors of mortality were age, ASA grade, BMI, the formation of a stoma, preoperative TNM staging, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, curative resection, and LOS. Classification predictive modelling predicted three different colorectal cancer mortality measures (overall mortality, and 31- and 91-days mortality) with 80-96% accuracy, 84-93% sensitivity, and 75-100% specificity. A model using all variables performed only slightly better than one that used just the most significant ones.

Measuring emotional preoperative stress by an app approach and its applicability to predict postoperative pain

BACKGROUND

The Brief Measure of Emotional Preoperative Stress (B-MEPS) was developed to evaluate the preoperative individual vulnerability to emotional stress. To obtain a refined version of B-MEPS suitable for an app approach, this study aimed: (i) to identify items with more discriminant properties; (ii) to classify the level of preoperative emotional stress based on cut-off points; (iii) to assess concurrent validity through correlation with the Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI) score; (iv) to confirm whether the refined version of B-MEPS is an adequate predictive measure for identification of patients prone to intense postoperative pain.

METHODS

We include 1016 patients who had undergone surgical procedures in a teaching hospital. The generalized partial credit model of item response theory and latent class model were employed, respectively, to reduce the number of items and to create cut-off points. We applied the CSI and assessed pain by Visual Analog Scale (0-10) and by the amount of postoperative morphine consumption.

RESULTS

The refined B-MEPS shows satisfactory reliability (Cronbach's alpha 0.79). Preoperative emotional stress, according to the cut-off points, is classified into categories: low, intermediate or high stress. The refined B-MEPS exhibited a linear association with the CSI scores (r2 = 0.53, p < 0.01). Patients with higher levels of emotional stress displayed a positive association with moderate to severe pain and greater morphine consumption.

CONCLUSION

The refined version of B-MEPS, along with an interface of easy applicability, assess emotional vulnerability at the bedside before surgery. This app may support studies focused on intervening with perioperative stress levels.

Surgical risk assessment for super-elderly patients

AIM

Super-elderly patients are often frail and the decision on surgical indications remains a difficult issue. The purpose of this study was to provide a certain preoperative surgical risk assessment tool for super-elderly people.

METHODS

We selected 112 individuals who were super-elderly patients aged >90 years who had surgeries under general anesthesia in our department. Based on the quality of the postoperative outcome of each case, we categorized these patients into two groups: good and poor groups. We evaluated the fundamental examination items, such as American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, skeletal muscle mass index and so on, and a couple of the well-known risk score systems represented by Estimation of Physiology Ability and Surgical Stress.

RESULTS

A total of 85 of the 112 patients belonged to the good group and the rest belonged to the poor group. The quality of postoperative outcome is well characterized by Estimation of Physiology Ability and Surgical Stress (P = 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis of Estimation of Physiology Ability and Surgical Stress for the quality of postoperative outcome shows sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.61. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that skeletal muscle mass index and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status are prominent as the risk determinants affecting the quality of postoperative outcome. A scoring system based on the skeletal muscle mass index, which is a good index of sarcopenia, and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, named the "SAP score" has the following characteristics. P-value <0.001, sensitivity 0.76 and specificity 0.91.

CONCLUSIONS

Informed consent based on the risk score might be able to reduce the regrettable situation where it would have been better to have had surgery or not to have had surgery. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; ••: ••-••.

Cochlear implantation under local anesthetic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

As the population ages and implantation criteria are relaxed, more patients with complex comorbidities are becoming eligible for cochlear implantation (CI). These patients have higher risks associated with general anesthesia. This systematic review assesses outcomes and complications following CI under local anesthetic to examine utility for patients deemed not suitable or at high risk for general anesthesia.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis performed according to the 2020 PRISMA guidelines. Databases searched were MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and ClinicalTrials.gov. There were no limitations on year of publication or language.

RESULTS

Then, 132 unique were identified. After screening abstracts and full texts for eligibility criteria a total of 18 articles were included. In the nine studies where audiological data were reported, all patients demonstrated improvement in audiological outcomes following implantation under local anesthetic (LA). Only minor complications of transient vertigo, wound infection, facial nerve paralysis, confusion, and tinnitus were reported but all were transient. Meta-analysis showed surgical time was significantly shorter under LA.

CONCLUSIONS

CI under LA is safe for patients with comorbidities which preclude them from general anesthesia, with minimal complications and an improved cost-effectiveness profile. However, larger scale, robust trials are required to assess this further.

Morbimortality assessment in abdominal surgery: are we predicting or overreacting?

BACKGROUND

High-risk surgical procedures represent a fundamental part of general surgery practice due to its significant rates of morbidity and mortality. Different predictive tools have been created in order to quantify perioperative morbidity and mortality risk. POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity) is one of the most widely validated predictive scores considering physiological and operative variables to precisely define morbimortality risk. Nevertheless, seeking greater accuracy in predictions P-POSSUM was proposed. We aimed to compare POSSUM and P-POSSUM for patients undergoing abdominal surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study with a prospective database was conducted. Patients over 18 years old who complied with inclusion criteria between 2015 and 2016 were included. Variables included in the POSSUM and P-POSSUM Scores were analyzed. Descriptive statistics of all study parameters were provided. The analysis included socio-demographic data, laboratory values ​​, and imaging. Bivariate analysis was performed.

RESULTS

350 Patients were included in the analysis, 55.1% were female. The mean age was 55.9 ± 20.4 years old. POSSUM revealed a moderated index score in 61.7% of the patients, mean score of 12.85 points ± 5.61. 89.1% of patients had no neoplastic diagnosis associated. Overall morbidity and mortality rate was 14.2% and 7.1%. P-POSSUM could predict more precisely mortality (p < 0.00).

CONCLUSIONS

The POSSUM score is likely to overestimate the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with high/moderate risk, while the P-POSSUM score seems to be a more accurate predictor of mortality risk. Further studies are needed to confirm our results.

Prognostic factors for elderly gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy

Background

Patients with gastric cancer are aging in Japan. It is not clear which patients and which surgical procedures have survival benefits after gastrectomy. A multivariate analysis was performed.

Methods

The medical records of 166 patients aged ≥ 80 years who underwent gastrectomy without macroscopic residual tumors were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazard models were performed to detect prognostic factors for overall survival.

Results

In univariate analyses, age (≥ 90 vs. ≥ 80, < 85), performance status (3 vs. 0), American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA-PS) (3, 4 vs. 1, 2), Onodera’s prognostic nutritional index (< 40 vs. ≥ 45), the physiological score of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) (≥ 40 vs. ≥ 20, ≤ 29), surgical approach (laparoscopic vs. open), extent of gastrectomy (total, proximal vs. distal), extent of lymphadenectomy (D1 vs. ≥ D2), pathological stage (II–IV vs. I), and residual tumor (R1 vs. R0) were significantly correlated with worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that ASA-PS [3, 4 vs. 1, 2, hazard ratio (HR) 2.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24–4.24], extent of gastrectomy (total vs. distal, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.10–4.31) (proximal vs. distal, HR 4.05, 95% CI 1.45–11.3), extent of lymphadenectomy (D0 vs. ≥ D2, HR 12.4, 95% CI 1.58–97.7), and pathological stage were independent risk factors for mortality.

Conclusions

ASA-PS was a useful predictor for postoperative mortality. Gastrectomy including cardia is best avoided.

Prehabilitation, enhanced recovery after surgery, or both? A narrative review

This narrative review presents a biological rationale and evidence to describe how the preoperative condition of the patient contributes to postoperative morbidity. Any preoperative condition that prevents a patient from tolerating the physiological stress of surgery (e.g. poor cardiopulmonary reserve, sarcopaenia), impairs the stress response (e.g. malnutrition, frailty), and/or augments the catabolic response to stress (e.g. insulin resistance) is a risk factor for poor surgical outcomes. Prehabilitation interventions that include exercise, nutrition, and psychosocial components can be applied before surgery to strengthen physiological reserve and enhance functional capacity, which, in turn, supports recovery through attaining surgical resilience. Prehabilitation complements Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) care to achieve optimal patient outcomes because recovery is not a passive process and it begins preoperatively.

Impact of Intraoperative Data on Risk Prediction for Mortality After Intra-Abdominal Surgery

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models for postoperative mortality after intra-abdominal surgery have typically been developed using preoperative variables. It is unclear if intraoperative data add significant value to these risk prediction models.

METHODS

With IRB approval, an institutional retrospective cohort of intra-abdominal surgery patients in the 2005 to 2015 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was identified. Intraoperative data were obtained from the electronic health record. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We evaluated the performance of machine learning algorithms to predict 30-day mortality using: 1) baseline variables and 2) baseline + intraoperative variables. Algorithms evaluated were: 1) logistic regression with elastic net selection, 2) random forest (RF), 3) gradient boosting machine (GBM), 4) support vector machine (SVM), and 5) convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC). The sample was randomly divided into a training/testing split with 80%/20% probabilities. Repeated 10-fold cross-validation identified the optimal model hyperparameters in the training dataset for each model, which were then applied to the entire training dataset to train the model. Trained models were applied to the test cohort to evaluate model performance. Statistical significance was evaluated using P < .05.

RESULTS

The training and testing cohorts contained 4322 and 1079 patients, respectively, with 62 (1.4%) and 15 (1.4%) experiencing 30-day mortality, respectively. When using only baseline variables to predict mortality, all algorithms except SVM (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.83 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.69-0.97]) had AUROC >0.9: GBM (AUROC, 0.96 [0.94-1.0]), RF (AUROC, 0.96 [0.92-1.0]), CNN (AUROC, 0.96 [0.92-0.99]), and logistic regression (AUROC, 0.95 [0.91-0.99]). AUROC significantly increased with intraoperative variables with CNN (AUROC, 0.97 [0.96-0.99]; P = .047 versus baseline), but there was no improvement with GBM (AUROC, 0.97 [0.95-0.99]; P = .3 versus baseline), RF (AUROC, 0.96 [0.93-1.0]; P = .5 versus baseline), and logistic regression (AUROC, 0.94 [0.90-0.99]; P = .6 versus baseline).

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative mortality is predicted with excellent discrimination in intra-abdominal surgery patients using only preoperative variables in various machine learning algorithms. The addition of intraoperative data to preoperative data also resulted in models with excellent discrimination, but model performance did not improve.

Adapted ERAS Pathway Versus Standard Care in Patients Undergoing Emergency Surgery for Perforation Peritonitis-a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) pathways have an uncertain role in emergencies. To the best of our knowledge, there are no trials studying ERAS in perforation peritonitis across the GI tract, despite it being a common surgical emergency.

AIMS

To evaluate the safety, feasibility and efficacy of adapted ERAS protocols in emergency laparotomy for perforation peritonitis.

METHODS

This was an open-labeled, superiority randomized controlled trial conducted between October 2018 and June 2020 in patients with perforation peritonitis assigned to standard care or adapted ERAS groups using block randomization. Patients with refractory shock, ASA class 4E, localized peritonitis, etc. were excluded. Components of the adapted ERAS protocol included epidural analgesia, goal-directed fluid therapy, avoidance of opioids, early mobilization, early removal of tubes, drains and catheters, and early enteral feeding. The primary outcome, length of hospitalization (LOH), and the secondary outcomes, functional recovery parameters, were analyzed between both the groups.

RESULTS

A total of 59 patients in standard care group and 61 patients in adapted ERAS group were included and randomized, and were comparable in terms of demographic and clinico-pathological characteristics. LOH in adapted ERAS group was shorter by 3 days (p < 0.001), and patients showed reduction in time (days) to first flatus (2.84 vs 4.22, p < 0.001), first stool (4.38 vs 6.08, p < 0.001) and solid diet (4.67 vs 8.37, p < 0.001). Post-operative nausea, vomiting (p = 0.05) and surgical site infections (p < 0.001) were reduced in adapted ERAS group. Pre-existing malignancy, respiratory complications and high output stoma were reasons for delayed discharge in adapted ERAS group.

CONCLUSION

Adapted ERAS pathways considerably reduce LOH in patients undergoing emergency surgery for perforation peritonitis, with no adverse events in 30 days after discharge.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered at http://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/login.php (CTRI/2019/02/017537).

The impact of Enhanced Recovery after Surgery (ERAS) pathways with regard to perioperative outcome in patients with ovarian cancer

Purpose

Major surgery for ovarian cancer is associated with significant morbidity. Recently, guidelines for perioperative care in gynecologic oncology with a structured “Enhanced Recovery after Surgery (ERAS)” program were presented. Our aim was to evaluate if implementation of ERAS reduces postoperative complications in patients undergoing extensive cytoreductive surgery for ovarian cancer.

Methods

134 patients with ovarian cancer (FIGO I-IV) were included. 47 patients were prospectively studied after implementation of a mandatory ERAS protocol (ERAS group) and compared to 87 patients that were treated before implementation (pre-ERAS group). Primary endpoints of this study were the effects of the ERAS protocol on postoperative complications and length of stay in hospital.

Results

Preoperative and surgical data were comparable in both groups. Only the POSSUM score was higher in the ERAS group (11.8% vs. 9.3%, p < 0.001), indicating a higher surgical risk in the ERAS group. Total number of postoperative complications (ERAS: 29.8% vs. pre-ERAS: 52.8%, p = 0.011), and length of hospital stay (ERAS: 11 (6–23) vs pre-ERAS: 13 (6–50) days; p < 0.001) differed significantly. A lower fraction of patients of the ERAS group (87.2%) needed postoperative admission to the ICU compared to the pre-ERAS group (97.7%), p = 0.022). Mortality within the ERAS group was 0% vs. 3.4% (p = 0.552) in the pre-ERAS group.

Conclusion

The implementation of a mandatory ERAS protocol was associated with a lower rate of postoperative complications and a reduced length of stay in hospital. If ERAS has influence on long-term outcome needs to be further evaluated.

Perioperative goal-directed therapy and postoperative complications in different kind of surgical procedures: an updated meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Goal-directed therapy (GDT) aims to assure tissue perfusion, by optimizing doses and timing of fluids, inotropes, and vasopressors, through monitoring of cardiac output and other basic hemodynamic parameters. Several meta-analyses confirm that GDT can reduce postoperative complications. However, all recent evidences focused on high-risk patients and on major abdominal surgery.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present meta-analysis is to investigate the effect of GDT on postoperative complications (defined as number of patients with a least one postoperative complication) in different kind of surgical procedures.

DATA SOURCES

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on perioperative GDT in adult surgical patients were included. The primary outcome measure was complications, defined as number of patients with at least one postoperative complication. A subgroup-analysis was performed considering the kind of surgery: major abdominal (including also major vascular), only vascular, only orthopedic surgery. and so on.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

Meta-analytic techniques (analysis software RevMan, version 5.3.5, Cochrane Collaboration, Oxford, England, UK) were used to combine studies using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

In 52 RCTs, 6325 patients were enrolled. Of these, 3162 were randomized to perioperative GDT and 3153 were randomized to control. In the overall population, 2836 patients developed at least one complication: 1278 (40%) were randomized to perioperative GDT, and 1558 (49%) were randomized to control. Pooled OR was 0.60 and 95% CI was 0.49-0.72. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the main result. The analysis enrolling major abdominal patients showed a significant result (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.87, p = 0.0007, 31 RCTs, 4203 patients), both in high- and low-risk patients. A significant effect was observed in those RCTs enrolling exclusively orthopedic procedures (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35-0.80, p = 0.002, 7 RCTs, 650 patients. Also neurosurgical procedures seemed to benefit from GDT (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.21-0.78, p = 0.008, 2 RCTs, 208 patients). In both major abdominal and orthopedic surgery, a strategy adopting fluids and inotropes yielded significant results. The total volume of fluid was not significantly different between the GDT and the control group.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS

The present meta-analysis, within the limits of the existing data, the clinical and statistical heterogeneity, suggests that GDT can reduce postoperative complication rate. Moreover, the beneficial effect of GDT on postoperative morbidity is significant on major abdominal, orthopedic and neurosurgical procedures. Several well-designed RCTs are needed to further explore the effect of GDT in different kind of surgeries.

Association of Hospital Volume with Perioperative Mortality of Endovascular Repair of Complex Aortic Aneurysms: A Nationwide Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

We evaluate nationwide perioperative outcomes of complex EVAR and assess the volume-outcome association of complex EVAR.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Endovascular treatment with fenestrated (FEVAR) or branched (BEVAR) endografts is progressively used for excluding complex aortic aneurysms (complex AAs). It is unclear if a volume-outcome association exists in endovascular treatment of complex AAs (complex EVAR).

METHODS

All patients prospectively registered in the Dutch Surgical Aneurysm Audit who underwent complex EVAR (FEVAR or BEVAR) between January 2016 and January 2020 were included. The effect of annual hospital volume on perioperative mortality was examined using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Patients were stratified into quartiles based on annual hospital volume to determine hospital volume categories.

RESULTS

We included 694 patients (539 FEVAR patients, 155 BEVAR patients). Perioperative mortality following FEVAR was 4.5% and 5.2% following BEVAR. Postoperative complication rates were 30.1% and 48.7%, respectively. The first quartile hospitals performed <9 procedures/yr; second, third, and fourth quartile hospitals performed 9-12, 13-22, and ≥23 procedures/yr. The highest volume hospitals treated the significantly more complex patients. Perioperative mortality of complex EVAR was 9.1% in hospitals with a volume of < 9, and 2.5% in hospitals with a volume of ≥13 (P = 0.008). After adjustment for confounders, an annual volume of ≥13 was associated with less perioperative mortality compared to hospitals with a volume of < 9.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from this nationwide mandatory quality registry shows a significant effect of hospital volume on perioperative mortality following complex EVAR, with high volume complex EVAR centers demonstrating lower mortality rates.

A Comparison of the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF) Tool for Older Patients Undergoing General Surgery

The optimal malnutrition screening tool in geriatric surgery has yet to be determined. Herein, we compare two main tools in older patients undergoing general surgery operations. Older patients (>65 years old) who underwent general surgery operations between 2012 and 2017 in a tertiary centre were included. The Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and the Mini Nutritional Assessment Short Form (MNA-SF) were used for nutritional risk assessment. Preoperative variables as well as postoperative outcomes were recorded prospectively. Agreement between tools was determined with the weighted kappa (κ) statistic. Multiple regression analysis was used to assess the association of the screening tools with postoperative outcomes. A total of 302 patients (median age 74 years, range: 65–92) were included. A similar number of patients were classified as medium/high risk for malnutrition with the MNA-SF and MUST (26% vs. 36%, p = 0.126). Agreement between the two tools was moderate (weighted κ: 0.474; 95%CI: 0.381–0.568). In the multivariate analysis, MNA-SF was associated significantly with postoperative mortality (p = 0.038) and with postoperative length of stay (p = 0.001). MUST was associated with postoperative length of stay (p = 0.048). The MNA-SF seems to be more consistently associated with postoperative outcomes in elderly patients undergoing general surgery compared with the MUST tool.