The relationship and predictive value of dementia and frailty for mortality in patients with surgically managed hip fractures

BACKGROUND

Both dementia and frailty have been associated with worse outcomes in patients with hip fractures. However, the interrelation and predictive value of these two entities has yet to be clarified. The current study aimed to investigate the predictive relationship between dementia, frailty, and in-hospital mortality after hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

All patients registered in the 2019 National Inpatient Sample Database who were 50 years or older and underwent emergency hip fracture surgery following a traumatic fall were eligible for inclusion. Logistic regression (LR) models were constructed with in-hospital mortality as the response variables. One model was constructed including markers of frailty and one model was constructed excluding markers of frailty [Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) and weight loss]. The feature importance of all variables was determined using the permutation importance method. New LR models were then fitted using the top ten most important variables. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of these models.

RESULTS

An estimated total of 216,395 patients were included. Dementia was the 7th most important variable for predicting in-hospital mortality. When the OFS and weight loss were included, they replaced dementia in importance. There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of the models when comparing the model that included markers of frailty [AUC for in-hospital mortality (95% CI) 0.79 (0.77-0.81)] with the model that excluded markers of frailty [AUC for in-hospital mortality (95% CI) 0.79 (0.77-0.80)].

CONCLUSION

Dementia functions as a surrogate for frailty when predicting in-hospital mortality in hip fracture patients. This finding highlights the importance of early frailty screening for improvement of care pathways and discussions with patients and their families in regard to expected outcomes.

Cardiac risk stratification and adverse outcomes in surgically managed patients with isolated traumatic spine injuries

INTRODUCTION

As the incidence of traumatic spine injuries has been steadily increasing, especially in the elderly, the ability to categorize patients based on their underlying risk for the adverse outcomes could be of great value in clinical decision making. This study aimed to investigate the association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and adverse outcomes in patients who have undergone surgery for traumatic spine injuries.

METHODS

All adult patients (18 years or older) in the 2013-2019 TQIP database with isolated spine injuries resulting from blunt force trauma, who underwent spinal surgery, were eligible for inclusion in the study. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to adjust for potential confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 39,391 patients were included for further analysis. In the regression model, an RCRI ≥ 3 was associated with a threefold risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.19 (2.30-4.43), p < 0.001] and cardiopulmonary complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.27 (2.46-4.34), p < 0.001], as well as a fourfold risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 4.27 (2.59-7.02), p < 0.001], compared to RCRI 0. The risk of all adverse outcomes increased stepwise along with each RCRI score.

CONCLUSION

The RCRI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with traumatic spine injuries who are at an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue after surgery.

Prioritizing patients for hip fracture surgery: the role of frailty and cardiac risk

Introduction

The number of patients with hip fractures continues to rise as the average age of the population increases. Optimizing outcomes in this cohort is predicated on timely operative repair. The aim of this study was to determine if patients with hip fractures who are frail or have a higher cardiac risk suffer from an increased risk of in-hospital mortality when surgery is postponed >24 h.

Methods

All patients registered in the 2013-2021 TQIP dataset who were ≥65 years old and underwent surgical fixation of an isolated hip fracture caused by a ground-level fall were included. Adjustment for confounding was performed using inverse probability weighting (IPW) while stratifying for frailty with the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) and cardiac risk using the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). The outcome was presented as the absolute risk difference in in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 254,400 patients were included. After IPW, all confounders were balanced. A delay in surgery was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality across all strata, and, as the degree of frailty and cardiac risk increased, so too did the risk of mortality. In patients with OFS ≥4, delaying surgery >24 h was associated with a 2.33 percentage point increase in the absolute mortality rate (95% CI: 0.57-4.09, p = 0.010), resulting in a number needed to harm (NNH) of 43. Furthermore, the absolute risk of mortality increased by 4.65 percentage points in patients with RCRI ≥4 who had their surgery delayed >24 h (95% CI: 0.90-8.40, p = 0.015), resulting in a NNH of 22. For patients with OFS 0 and RCRI 0, the corresponding NNHs when delaying surgery >24 h were 345 and 333, respectively.

Conclusion

Delaying surgery beyond 24 h from admission increases the risk of mortality for all geriatric hip fracture patients. The magnitude of the negative impact increases with the patient's level of cardiac risk and frailty. Operative intervention should not be delayed based on frailty or cardiac risk.

Investigating the link between frailty and outcomes in geriatric patients with isolated rib fractures

Background

Studies have shown an increased risk of morbidity in elderly patients suffering rib fractures from blunt trauma. The association between frailty and rib fractures on adverse outcomes is still ill-defined. In the current investigation, we sought to delineate the association between frailty, measured using the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS), and outcomes in geriatric patients with isolated rib fractures.

Methods

All geriatric (aged 65 years or older) patients registered in the 2013-2019 Trauma Quality Improvement database with a conservatively managed isolated rib fracture were considered for inclusion. An isolated rib fracture was defined as the presence of ≥1 rib fracture, a thorax Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) between 1 and 5, an AIS ≤1 in all other regions, as well as the absence of pneumothorax, hemothorax, or pulmonary contusion. Based on patients' OFS, patients were classified as non-frail (OFS 0), pre-frail (OFS 1), or frail (OFS ≥2). The prevalence ratio (PR) of composite complications, in-hospital mortality, failure-to-rescue (FTR), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission between the OFS groups was determined using Poisson regression models to adjust for potential confounding.

Results

A total of 65 375 patients met the study's inclusion criteria of whom 60% were non-frail, 29% were pre-frail, and 11% were frail. There was a stepwise increased risk of complications, in-hospital mortality, and FTR from non-frail to pre-frail and frail. Compared with non-frail patients, frail patients exhibited a 87% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted PR (95% CI): 1.87 (1.52-2.31), p<0.001], a 44% increased risk of complications [adjusted PR (95% CI): 1.44 (1.23-1.67), p<0.001], a doubling in the risk of FTR [adjusted PR (95% CI): 2.08 (1.45-2.98), p<0.001], and a 17% increased risk of ICU admission [adjusted PR (95% CI): 1.17 (1.11-1.23), p<0.001].

Conclusion

There is a strong association between frailty, measured using the OFS, and adverse outcomes in geriatric patients managed conservatively for rib fractures.

Sex disparities in adverse outcomes after surgically managed isolated traumatic spinal injury

BACKGROUND

Traumatic spinal injury (TSI) encompasses a wide range of injuries affecting the spinal cord, nerve roots, bones, and soft tissues that result in pain, impaired mobility, paralysis, and death. There is some evidence suggesting that women may have different physiological responses to traumatic injury compared to men; therefore, this study aimed to investigate if there are any associations between sex and adverse outcomes following surgically managed isolated TSI.

METHODS

Using the 2013-2019 TQIP database, all adult patients with isolated TSI, defined as a spine AIS ≥ 2 with an AIS ≤ 1 in all other body regions, resulting from blunt force trauma requiring spinal surgery, were eligible for inclusion in the study. The association between the sex and in-hospital mortality as well as cardiopulmonary and venothromboembolic complications was determined by calculating the risk ratio (RR) after adjusting for potential confounding using inverse probability weighting.

RESULTS

A total of 43,756 patients were included. After adjusting for potential confounders, female sex was associated with a 37% lower risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.63 (0.57-0.69), p < 0.001], a 27% lower risk of myocardial infarction [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.73 (0.56-0.95), p = 0.021], a 37% lower risk of cardiac arrest [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.63 (0.55-0.72), p < 0.001], a 34% lower risk of deep vein thrombosis [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.66 (0.59-0.74), p < 0.001], a 45% lower risk of pulmonary embolism [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.55 (0.46-0.65), p < 0.001], a 36% lower risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.64 (0.54-0.76), p < 0.001], a 34% lower risk of pneumonia [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.66 (0.60-0.72), p < 0.001], and a 22% lower risk of surgical site infection [adjusted RR (95% CI): 0.78 (0.62-0.98), p < 0.032], compared to male sex.

CONCLUSION

Female sex is associated with a significantly decreased risk of in-hospital mortality as well as cardiopulmonary and venothromboembolic complications following surgical management of traumatic spinal injuries. Further studies are needed to elucidate the cause of these differences.

Screening Performance of S100 Calcium-Binding Protein B, Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein, and Ubiquitin C-Terminal Hydrolase L1 for Intracranial Injury Within Six Hours of Injury and Beyond

The Scandinavian NeuroTrauma Committee (SNC) guidelines recommend S100 calcium-binding protein B (S100B) as a screening tool for early detection of Traumatic brain injury (TBI) in patients presenting with an initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 14-15. The objective of the current study was to compare S100B's diagnostic performance within the recommended 6-h window after injury, compared with glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and UCH-L1. The secondary outcome of interest was the ability of these biomarkers in detecting traumatic intracranial pathology beyond the 6-h mark. The Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) core database (2014-2017) was queried for data pertaining to all TBI patients with an initial GCS of 14-15 who had a blood sample taken within 6 h of injury in which the levels of S100B, GFAP, and UCH-L1 were measured. As a subgroup analysis, data involving patients with blood samples taken within 6-9 h and 9-12 h were analyzed separately for diagnostic ability. The diagnostic ability of these biomarkers for detecting any intracranial injury was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Each biomarker's sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were also reported at the cutoff that maximized Youden's index. A total of 531 TBI patients with GCS 14-15 on admission had a blood sample taken within 6 h, of whom 24.9% (n = 132) had radiologically confirmed intracranial injury. The AUCs of GFAP (0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.82-0.90) and UCH-L1 (0.81, 95% CI: 0.76-0.85) were statistically significantly higher than that of S100B (0.74, 95% CI: 0.69-0.79) during this time. There was no statistically significant difference in the predictive ability of S100B when sampled within 6 h, 6-9 h, and 9-12 h of injury, as the p values were >0.05 when comparing the AUCs. Overlapping AUC 95% CI suggests no benefit of a combined GFAP and UCH-L1 screening tool over GFAP during the time periods studied [0.87 (0.83-0.90) vs. 0.86 (0.82-0.90) when sampled within 6 h of injury, 0.83 (0.78-0.88) vs. 0.83 (0.78-0.89) within 6 to 9 h and 0.81 (0.73-0.88) vs. 0.79 (0.72-0.87) within 9-12 h]. Targeted analysis of the CENTER-TBI core database, with focus on the patient category for which biomarker testing is recommended by the SNC guidelines, revealed that GFAP and UCH-L1 perform superior to S100B in predicting CT-positive intracranial lesions within 6 h of injury. GFAP continued to exhibit superior predictive ability to S100B during the time periods studied. S100B displayed relatively unaltered screening performance beyond the diagnostic timeline provided by SNC guidelines. These findings suggest the need for a reevaluation of the current SNC TBI guidelines.

Contemporary Management and Outcomes of Blunt Traumatic AAST-OIS Grade III and IV Pancreatic Injuries in Children: A TQIP analysis

BACKGROUND

The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) database has delineated management strategies and outcomes for adults with AAST-OIS grade III-IV pancreatic injuries and suggests that non-operative management (NOM) is a viable option for these injuries. However, management strategies vary for children following significant pancreatic injuries and outcomes for these intermediate/high grade injuries have not been sufficiently studied. Our aim is to describe the management and outcomes for grade III-IV pancreatic injuries utilizing TQIP. We hypothesize that pediatric patients with intermediate/high grade injuries can be safely managed with NOM.

METHODS

All pediatric patients (<18 years old) registered in TQIP between 2013-2021 who suffered a grade III or IV pancreatic injury due to blunt trauma were included in the current study. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics, complications, and in-hospital mortality were compared between the different treatment strategies for pancreatic injury: NOM versus drainage and/or pancreatic resection.

RESULTS

580 patients meeting criteria were identified. A total of 416 pediatric patients suffered a grade III pancreatic injury; 79% (N = 332) were NOM, 7% (N = 27) received a drain, and 14% (N = 57) underwent a pancreatic resection. A further 164 patients suffered a grade IV pancreatic injury; 77% (N = 126) were NOM, 11% (N = 18) received a drain, and 12% (N = 20) underwent a pancreatic resection. No differences in overall injury severity or demographical data were observed between the treatment groups. No difference in in-hospital mortality was detected between the different management strategies. Patients who received a drain had a longer hospital length of stay (LOS).

CONCLUSION

The majority of children with AAST-OIS grade III-IV pancreatic injuries are managed nonoperatively. NOM is a reasonable strategy for these injuries and results in equivalent in-hospital adverse outcome profiles as pancreatic drainage or resection with a shorter hospital LOS.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

Predictors of outcomes in geriatric patients with moderate traumatic brain injury after ground level falls

Introduction

The elderly population constitutes one of the fastest-growing demographic groups globally. Within this population, mild to moderate traumatic brain injuries (TBI) resulting from ground level falls (GLFs) are prevalent and pose significant challenges. Between 50 and 80% of TBIs in older individuals are due to GLFs. These incidents result in more severe outcomes and extended recovery periods for the elderly, even when controlling for injury severity. Given the increasing incidence of such injuries it becomes essential to identify the key factors that predict complications and in-hospital mortality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to pinpoint the top predictors of complications and in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients who have experienced a moderate TBI following a GLF.

Methods

Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons' Trauma Quality Improvement Program database. A moderate TBI was defined as a head AIS ≤ 3 with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) 9-13, and an AIS ≤ 2 in all other body regions. Potential predictors of complications and in-hospital mortality were included in a logistic regression model and ranked using the permutation importance method.

Results

A total of 7,489 patients with a moderate TBI were included in the final analyses. 6.5% suffered a complication and 6.2% died prior to discharge. The top five predictors of complications were the need for neurosurgical intervention, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, coagulopathy, the spine abbreviated injury severity scale (AIS), and the injury severity score. The top five predictors of mortality were head AIS, age, GCS on admission, the need for neurosurgical intervention, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Conclusion

When predicting both complications and in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients who have suffered a moderate traumatic brain injury after a ground level fall, the most important factors to consider are the need for neurosurgical intervention, cardiac risk, and measures of injury severity. This may allow for better identification of at-risk patients, and at the same time resulting in a more equitable allocation of resources.

Adverse outcomes following pelvic fracture: the critical role of frailty

PURPOSE

Pelvic fractures among older adults are associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes, with frailty likely being a contributing factor. The current study endeavors to describe the association between frailty, measured using the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS), and adverse outcomes in geriatric pelvic fracture patients.

METHODS

All geriatric (65 years or older) patients registered in the 2013-2019 Trauma Quality Improvement Program database with an isolated pelvic fracture following blunt trauma were considered for inclusion. An isolated pelvic fracture was defined as any fracture in the pelvis with a lower extremity AIS ≥ 2, any abdomen AIS, and an AIS ≤ 1 in all other regions. Poisson regression models were employed to determine the association between the OFS and adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 66,404 patients were included for further analysis. 52% (N = 34,292) were classified as non-frail (OFS 0), 32% (N = 21,467) were pre-frail (OFS 1), and 16% (N = 10,645) were classified as frail (OFS ≥ 2). Compared to non-frail patients, frail patients exhibited a 88% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.88 (1.54-2.30), p < 0.001], a 25% increased risk of complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.25 (1.10-1.42), p < 0.001], a 56% increased risk of failure-to-rescue [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.56 (1.14-2.14), p = 0.006], and a 10% increased risk of ICU admission [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.10 (1.02-1.18), p = 0.014].

CONCLUSION

Frail pelvic fracture patients suffer from a disproportionately increased risk of mortality, complications, failure-to-rescue, and ICU admission. Additional measures are required to mitigate adverse events in this vulnerable patient population.

Firearms-related injury and sex: a comparative National Trauma Database (NTDB) Study

Background

Existing study findings on firearms-related injury patterns are largely skewed towards males, who comprise the majority of this injury population. Given the paucity of existing data for females with these injuries, we aimed to elucidate the demographics, injury patterns, and outcomes of firearms-related injury in females compared with males in the USA.

Materials and methods

A 7-year (2013-2019) retrospective review of the National Trauma Database was conducted to identify all adult patients who suffered firearms-related injuries. Patients who were males were matched (1:1, caliper 0.2) to patients who were females by demographics, comorbidities, injury patterns and severity, and payment method, to compare differences in mortality and several other post-injury outcomes.

Results

There were 196 696 patients admitted after firearms-related injury during the study period. Of these patients, 23 379 (11.9%) were females, 23 378 of whom were successfully matched to a male counterpart. After matching, females had a lower rate of in-hospital mortality (18.6% vs. 20.0%, p<0.001), deep vein thrombosis (1.2% vs. 1.5%, p=0.014), and had a lower incidence of drug or alcohol withdrawal syndrome (0.2% vs. 0.5%, p<0.001) compared with males.

Conclusion

Female victims of firearms-related injuries experience lower rates of mortality and complications compared with males. Further studies are needed to elucidate the cause of these differences.

Level of evidence

Level III.

Racial Disparities in Administration of Venous Thromboembolism Prophylaxis After Severe Traumatic Injuries

BACKGROUND

Race is associated with differences in quality of care process measures and incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in trauma patients. We aimed to investigate if racial disparities exist in the administration of VTE prophylaxis in trauma patients.

METHODS

We queried the Trauma Quality Improvement Project database from 2017 to 2019. Patients ages ≥16 years old with ISS ≥15 were included. Patients with no signs of life on arrival, any AIS ≥6, hospital length of stay <1 day, anticoagulant use before admission, or without recorded race were excluded. Patients were grouped by race: white, black, Asian, American Indian, and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander. The association between VTE prophylaxis administration and race was determined using a Poisson regression model with robust standard errors to adjust for confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 285,341 patients were included. Black patients had the highest rates of VTE prophylaxis exposure (73.8%), shortest time to administration (1.6 days), and highest use of low molecular weight heparin (56%). Black patients also had the highest incidence of deep vein thrombosis (2.8%) and pulmonary embolism (1.4%). Black patients were 4% more likely to receive VTE prophylaxis than white patients [adj. IRR (95% CI): 1.04 (1.03-1.05), P < .001]. American Indians were 8% less likely to receive VTE prophylaxis [adj. IRR (95% CI): .92 (.88-.97), P < .001] than white patients. No differences between white and Asian or Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander patients existed.

DISCUSSION

While black patients had the highest incidence of DVT and PE, they had higher administration rates and earlier initiation of VTE prophylaxis. Further work can elucidate modifiable causes of these differences.

Validation of the orthopedic frailty score for measuring frailty in hip fracture patients: a cohort study based on the United States National inpatient sample

BACKGROUND

The Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) has been proposed as a tool for measuring frailty in order to predict short-term postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. This study aims to validate the OFS using a large national patient register to determine its relationship with adverse outcomes as well as length of stay and cost of hospital stay.

METHODS

All adult patients (18 years or older) registered in the 2019 National Inpatient Sample Database who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery following a traumatic fall were eligible for inclusion. The association between the OFS and mortality, complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models adjusted for potential confounders. The relationship between the OFS and length of stay and cost of hospital stay was instead determined using a quantile regression model.

RESULTS

An estimated 227,850 cases met the study inclusion criteria. There was a stepwise increase in the rate of complications, mortality, and FTR for each additional point on the OFS. After adjusting for potential confounding, OFS 4 was associated with an almost ten-fold increase in the risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 10.6 (4.02-27.7), p < 0.001], a 38% increased risk of complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.38 (1.03-1.85), p = 0.032], and an almost 11-fold increase in the risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 11.6 (4.36-30.9), p < 0.001], compared to OFS 0. Patients with OFS 4 also required a day and a half additional care [change in median length of stay (95% CI): 1.52 (0.97-2.08), p < 0.001] as well as cost approximately $5,200 more to manage [change in median cost of stay (95% CI): 5166 (1921-8411), p = 0.002], compared to those with OFS 0.

CONCLUSION

Patients with an elevated OFS display a substantially increased risk of mortality, complications, and failure-to-rescue as well as a prolonged and more costly hospital stay.

Early Tracheostomy in Older Trauma Patient Is Associated With Comparable Outcomes to Younger Cohort

INTRODUCTION

Early tracheostomy (ET) is associated with a lower incidence of pneumonia (PNA) and mechanical ventilation duration (MVD) in hospitalized patients with trauma. The purpose of this study is to determine if ET also benefits older adults compared to the younger cohort.

METHODS

Adult hospitalized trauma patients who received a tracheostomy as registered in The American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program from 2013 to 2019 were analyzed. Patients with tracheostomy prior to admission were excluded. Patients were stratified into 2 cohorts consisting of those aged ≥65 and those aged <65. These cohorts were analyzed separately to compare the outcomes of ET (<5 d; ET) versus late tracheostomy (LT) (≥5 d; LT). The primary outcome was MVD. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay (HLOS), and PNA. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed with significance defined as P value < 0.05.

RESULTS

In patients aged <65, ET was performed within a median of 2.3 d (interquartile range, 0.47-3.8) after intubation and a median of 9.9 d (interquartile range, 7.5-13) in the LT group. The ET group's Injury Severity Score was significantly lower with fewer comorbidities. There were no differences in injury severity or comorbidities when comparing the groups. ET was associated with lower MVD (d), PNA, and HLOS on univariate and multivariate analyses in both age cohorts, although the degree of benefit was higher in the less than 65 y cohort [ET versus LT MVD: 5.08 (4.78-5.37), P < 0.001; PNA: 1.45 (1.36-1.54), P < 0.001; HLOS: 5.48 (4.93-6.04), P < 0.001]. Mortality did not differ based on time to tracheostomy.

CONCLUSIONS

ET is associated with lower MVD, PNA, and HLOS in hospitalized patients with trauma regardless of age. Age should not factor into timing for tracheostomy placement.

Development and Validation of an XGBoost-Algorithm-Powered Survival Model for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality Based on 545,388 Isolated Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Patients from the TQIP Database

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) represents a significant global health issue; the traditional tools such as the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) which have been used for injury severity grading, struggle to capture outcomes after TBI.

AIM AND METHODS

This paper aims to implement extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), a powerful machine learning algorithm that combines the predictions of multiple weak models to create a strong predictive model with high accuracy and efficiency, in order to develop and validate a predictive model for in-hospital mortality in patients with isolated severe traumatic brain injury and to identify the most influential predictors. In total, 545,388 patients from the 2013-2021 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) database were included in the current study, with 80% of the patients used for model training and 20% of the patients for the final model test. The primary outcome of the study was in-hospital mortality. Predictors were patients' demographics, admission status, as well as comorbidities, and clinical characteristics. Penalized Cox regression models were used to investigate the associations between the survival outcomes and the predictors and select the best predictors. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-powered Cox regression model was then used to predict the survival outcome. The performance of the models was evaluated using the Harrell's concordance index (C-index). The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the dynamic cumulative performance of the models. The importance of the predictors in the final prediction model was evaluated using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) value.

RESULTS

On average, the final XGBoost-powered Cox regression model performed at an acceptable level for patients with a length of stay up to 250 days (mean time-dependent AUC = 0.713) in the test dataset. However, for patients with a length of stay between 20 and 213 days, the performance of the model was relatively poor (time-dependent AUC < 0.7). When limited to patients with a length of stay ≤20 days, which accounts for 95.4% of all the patients, the model achieved an excellent performance (mean time-dependent AUC = 0.813). When further limited to patients with a length of stay ≤5 days, which accounts for two-thirds of all the patients, the model achieved an outstanding performance (mean time-dependent AUC = 0.917).

CONCLUSION

The XGBoost-powered Cox regression model can achieve an outstanding predictive ability for in-hospital mortality during the first 5 days, primarily based on the severity of the injury, the GCS on admission, and the patient's age. These variables continue to demonstrate an excellent predictive ability up to 20 days after admission, a period of care that accounts for over 95% of severe TBI patients. Past 20 days of care, other factors appear to be the primary drivers of in-hospital mortality, indicating a potential window of opportunity for improving outcomes.

The relationship of ADHD and trauma mortality: An NTDB analysis

Objective

Nearly 7% of the adult US population has symptomatic Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), which is associated with an increased risk for traumatic injury. There is limited data on the outcome of hospitalized trauma patients with ADHD. This study aimed to use a large nationwide database to investigate the relationship between a diagnosis of ADHD and clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients after major trauma.

Methods

All patients 18 years or older in the National Trauma Database were retrospectively reviewed. Propensity score analysis was used to match patients with and without the diagnosis of ADHD at a 1:1 ratio based on age, sex, race, highest AIS in each region, comorbidities, and the presence of advanced directives limiting care. Outcomes of patients with ADHD admitted to the trauma service between the years 2015 and 2017 were compared to those without ADHD. The primary outcome of interest was in-hospital mortality, while the secondary outcomes included complications and hospital length of stay.

Results

There were 9399 patients included in the study with a diagnosis of ADHD. These patients were overall more likely to be younger, male, and Caucasian, compared to their matched counterparts without ADHD. ADHD was associated with a significantly lower in-hospital mortality than patients without ADHD. There was no difference in the ICU admission rate, ICU LOS, ventilator use, or complication rates between patients with and without ADHD.

Conclusion

A diagnosis of ADHD has a complex association with clinical outcomes after trauma. The current large national analysis found that patients with a diagnosis of ADHD had significantly lower overall in-hospital mortality.

Clinical practice selectively follows acute appendicitis guidelines

INTRODUCTION

Acute appendicitis is a common surgical emergency, and the standard approach to diagnosis and management has been codified in several practice guidelines. Adherence to these guidelines provides insight into independent surgical practice patterns and institutional resource constraints as impediments to best practice. We explored data from the recent ESTES SnapAppy observational cohort study to determine guideline compliance in contemporary practice to identify opportunities to close evidence-to-practice gaps.

METHODS

We undertook a preplanned analysis of the ESTES SnapAppy observational cohort study, identifying, at a patient level, congruence with, or deviation from WSES Jerusalem guidelines for the diagnosis and management of acute appendicitis and the Surviving Sepsis Campaign in our cohort. Compliance was then correlated with the incidence of postoperative complications.

RESULTS

Four thousand six hundred and thirteen (4613) consecutive adult and adolescent patients with acute appendicitis were followed from date of admission (November 1, 2020, and May 28, 2021) for 90 days. Patient-level compliance with guideline elements allowed patients to be grouped into those with full compliance (all 5 elements: 13%), partial compliance (1-4 elements: 87%) or noncompliance (0 elements: 0.2%). We identified an excess postoperative complication rate in patients who received noncompliant and partially compliant care, compared with those who received fully guideline-compliant care (36% and 16%, versus 7.3%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The observed diagnostic and treatment practices of the participating institutions displayed variability in compliance with key recommendations from existing guidelines. In general, practice was congruent with recommendations for preoperative antibiotic surgical site infection prophylaxis administration, time to surgery, and operative approach. However, there remains opportunities for improvement in the choice of diagnostic imaging modality, postoperative antibiotic stewardship to timely discontinue prophylactic antibiotics, and the implementation of ambulatory treatment pathways for uncomplicated appendicitis in the healthy young adult.

Surgical management of acute appendicitis during the European COVID-19 second wave: safe and effective

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic drove acute care surgeons to pivot from long established practice patterns. Early safety concerns regarding increased postoperative complication risk in those with active COVID infection promoted antibiotic-driven non-operative therapy for select conditions ahead of an evidence-base. Our study assesses whether active or recent SARS-CoV-2 positivity increases hospital length of stay (LOS) or postoperative complications following appendectomy.

METHODS

Data were derived from the prospective multi-institutional observational SnapAppy cohort study. This preplanned data analysis assessed consecutive patients aged ≥ 15 years who underwent appendectomy for appendicitis (November 2020-May 2021). Patients were categorized based on SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity: no infection, active infection, and prior infection. Appendectomy method, LOS, and complications were abstracted. The association between SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and complications was determined using Poisson regression, while the association with LOS was calculated using a quantile regression model.

RESULTS

Appendectomy for acute appendicitis was performed in 4047 patients during the second and third European COVID waves. The majority were SARS-CoV-2 uninfected (3861, 95.4%), while 70 (1.7%) were acutely SARS-CoV-2 positive, and 116 (2.8%) reported prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. After confounder adjustment, there was no statistically significant association between SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and LOS, any complication, or severe complications.

CONCLUSION

During sequential SARS-CoV-2 infection waves, neither active nor prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with prolonged hospital LOS or postoperative complication. Despite early concerns regarding postoperative safety and outcome during active SARS-CoV-2 infection, no such association was noted for those with appendicitis who underwent operative management.

The revised cardiac risk index is associated with morbidity and mortality independent of injury severity in elderly patients with rib fractures

BACKGROUND

Risk factors for mortality and in-hospital morbidity among geriatric patients with traumatic rib fractures remain unclear. Such patients are often frail and demonstrate a high comorbidity burden. Moreover, outcomes anticipated by current rubrics may reflect the influence of multisystem injury or surgery, and thus not apply to isolated injuries in geriatric patients. We hypothesized that the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) may assist in risk-stratifying geriatric patients following rib fracture.

METHODS

All geriatric patients (age ≥65 years) with a conservatively managed rib fracture owing to an isolated thoracic injury (thorax AIS ≥1), in the 2013-2019 TQIP database were assessed including demographics and outcomes. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital morbidity as well as mortality was analyzed using Poisson regression models while adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

96,750 geriatric patients sustained rib fractures. Compared to those with RCRI 0, patients with an RCRI score of 1 had a 16% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted incidence rate ratio (adj-IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16 (1.02-1.32), p=0.020]. An RCRI score of 2 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 1.72 (1.44-2.06), p<0.001] or ≥3 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 3.07 (2.31-4.09), p<0.001] was associated with an even greater mortality risk. Those with an increased RCRI also exhibited a higher incidence of myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, stroke, and acute respiratory distress syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

Geriatric patients with rib fractures and an RCRI ≥1 represent a vulnerable and high-risk group. This index may inform the decision to admit for inpatient care and can also guide patient and family counseling as well as computer-based decision-support.

The mortality burden of frailty in hip fracture patients: a nationwide retrospective study of cause-specific mortality

PURPOSE

Frailty is a condition characterized by a reduced ability to adapt to external stressors because of a reduced physiologic reserve, which contributes to the high risk of postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. This study aims to investigate how frailty is associated with the specific causes of mortality in hip fracture patients.

METHODS

All adult patients in Sweden who suffered a traumatic hip fracture and underwent surgery between 2008 and 2017 were eligible for inclusion. The Orthopedic Hip Frailty Score (OFS) was used to classify patients as non-frail (OFS 0), pre-frail (OFS 1), and frail (OFS ≥ 2). The association between the degree of frailty and both all-cause and cause-specific mortality was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors and presented using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for potential sources of confounding.

RESULTS

After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 127,305 patients remained for further analysis. 23.9% of patients were non-frail, 27.7% were pre-frail, and 48.3% were frail. Frail patients exhibited a 4 times as high risk of all-cause mortality 30 days [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.80 (3.36-4.30), p < 0.001] and 90 days postoperatively [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.88 (3.56-4.23), p < 0.001] as non-frail patients. Of the primary causes of 30-day mortality, frailty was associated with a tripling in the risk of cardiovascular [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.24 (2.64-3.99), p < 0.001] and respiratory mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI): 2.60 (1.96-3.45), p < 0.001] as well as a five-fold increase in the risk of multiorgan failure [adj. IRR (95% CI): 4.99 (3.95-6.32), p < 0.001].

CONCLUSION

Frailty is associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality at 30 and 90 days postoperatively. Across both timepoints, cardiovascular and respiratory events along with multiorgan failure were the most prevalent causes of mortality.

Common bile duct stones management: A network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Timely management is critical for treating symptomatic common bile duct (CBD) stones; however, a single optimal management strategy has yet to be defined in the acute care setting. Consequently, this systematic review and network meta-analysis, comparing one-stage (CBD exploration or intraoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography [ERCP] with simultaneous cholecystectomy) and two-stage (precholecystectomy or postcholecystectomy ERCP) procedures, was undertaken with the main outcomes of interest being postprocedural complications and hospital length of stay (LOS).

METHODS

PubMed, SCOPUS, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were methodically queried for articles from 2010 to 2021. The search terms were a combination of medical subject headings terms and the subsequent terms: gallstone; common bile duct (stone); choledocholithiasis; cholecystitis; endoscopic retrograde cholangiography/ERCP; common bile duct exploration; intraoperative, preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiography; stone extraction; and one-stage and two-stage procedure. Studies that compared two procedures or more were included, whereas studies not recording complications (bile leak, hemorrhage, pancreatitis, perforation, intra-abdominal infections, and other infections) or LOS were excluded. A network meta-analysis was conducted to compare the four different approaches for managing CBD stones.

RESULTS

A total of 16 studies (8,644 participants) addressing the LOS and 41 studies (19,756 participants) addressing postprocedural complications were included in the analysis. The one-stage approaches were associated with a decrease in LOS compared with the two-stage approaches. Common bile duct exploration demonstrated a lower overall risk of complications compared with preoperative ERCP, but there were no differences in the overall risk of complications in the remaining comparisons. However, differences in specific postprocedural complications were detected between the four different approaches managing CBD stones.

CONCLUSION

This network meta-analysis suggests that both laparoscopic CBD exploration and intraoperative ERCP have equally good outcomes and provide a preferable single-anesthesia patient pathway with a shorter overall length of hospital stay compared with the two-stage approaches.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Systematic Review/Meta Analysis; Level III.

Mode of anesthesia is not associated with outcomes following emergency hip fracture surgery: a population-level cohort study

Background

Hip fractures often occur in frail patients with several comorbidities. In those undergoing emergency surgery, determining the optimal anesthesia modality may be challenging, with equipoise concerning outcomes following either spinal or general anesthesia. In this study, we investigated the association between mode of anesthesia and postoperative morbidity and mortality with subgroup analyses.

Methods

This is a retrospective study using all consecutive adult patients who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery in Orebro County, Sweden, between 2013 and 2017. Patients were extracted from the Swedish National Hip Fracture Registry, and their electronic medical records were reviewed. The association between the type of anesthesia and 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality, as well as in-hospital severe complications (Clavien-Dindo classification ≥3a), was analyzed using Poisson regression models with robust SEs, while the association with 1-year mortality was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. All analyses were adjusted for potential confounders.

Results

A total of 2437 hip fracture cases were included in the study, of whom 60% received spinal anesthesia. There was no statistically significant difference in the risk of 30-day postoperative mortality (adjusted incident rate ratio (IRR) (95% CI): 0.99 (0.72 to 1.36), p=0.952), 90-day postoperative mortality (adjusted IRR (95% CI): 0.88 (0.70 to 1.11), p=0.281), 1-year postoperative mortality (adjusted HR (95% CI): 0.98 (0.83 to 1.15), p=0.773), or in-hospital severe complications (adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.24 (0.85 to 1.82), p=0.273), when comparing general and spinal anesthesia.

Conclusions

Mode of anesthesia during emergency hip fracture surgery was not associated with an increased risk of postoperative mortality or in-hospital severe complications in the study population or any of the investigated subgroups.

Level of evidence: Therapeutic/Care Management, level III

Developing and validating a scoring system for measuring frailty in patients with hip fracture: a novel model for predicting short-term postoperative mortality

Objectives

Frailty is common among patients with hip fracture and may, in part, contribute to the increased risk of mortality and morbidity after hip fracture surgery. This study aimed to develop a novel frailty score for patients with traumatic hip fracture that could be used to predict postoperative mortality as well as facilitate further research into the role of frailty in patients with hip fracture.

Methods

The Orthopedic Hip Frailty Score (OFS) was developed using a national dataset, retrieved from the Swedish National Quality Registry for Hip Fractures, that contained all adult patients who underwent surgery for a traumatic hip fracture in Sweden between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017. Candidate variables were selected from the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, Sernbo Score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, 5-factor modified Frailty Index, as well as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index and ranked based on their permutation importance, with the top 5 variables being selected for the score. The OFS was then validated on a local dataset that only included patients from Orebro County, Sweden.

Results

The national dataset consisted of 126,065 patients. 2365 patients were present in the local dataset. The most important variables for predicting 30-day mortality were congestive heart failure, institutionalization, non-independent functional status, an age ≥85, and a history of malignancy. In the local dataset, the OFS achieved an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.77 (0.74 to 0.80) and 0.76 (0.74 to 0.78) when predicting 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality, respectively.

Conclusions

The OFS is a significant predictor of short-term postoperative mortality in patients with hip fracture that outperforms, or performs on par with, all other investigated indices.

Level of evidence

Level III, Prognostic and Epidemiological.

The significance of direct transportation to a trauma center on survival for severe traumatic brain injury

INTRODUCTION

While timely specialized care can contribute to improved outcomes following traumatic brain injury (TBI), this condition remains the most common cause of post-injury death worldwide. The purpose of this study was to investigate the difference in mortality between regional trauma centers in Sweden (which provide neurosurgical services round the clock) and non-trauma centers, hypothesizing that 1-day and 30-day mortality will be lower at regional trauma centers.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used data extracted from the Swedish national trauma registry and included adults admitted with severe TBI between January 2014 and December 2018. The cohort was divided into two subgroups based on whether they were treated at a trauma center or non-trauma center. Severe TBI was defined as a head injury with an AIS score of 3 or higher. Poisson regression analyses with both univariate and multivariate models were performed to determine the difference in mortality risk [Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR)] between the subgroups. As a sensitivity analysis, the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method was used to adjust for the effects of confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 3039 patients were included. Patients admitted to a trauma center had a lower crude 30-day mortality rate (21.7 vs. 26.4% days, p = 0.006). After adjusting for confounding variables, patients treated at regional trauma center had a 28% [adj. IRR (95% CI): 0.72 (0.55-0.94), p = 0.015] decreased risk of 1-day mortality and an 18% [adj. IRR (95% CI): 0.82 (0.69-0.98)] reduction in 30-day mortality, compared to patients treated at a non-trauma center. After adjusting for covariates in the Poisson regression analysis performed after IPTW, admission and treatment at a trauma center were associated with a 27% and 17% reduction in 1-day and 30-day mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

For patients suffering a severe TBI, treatment at a regional trauma center confers a statistically significant 1-day and 30-day survival advantage over treatment at a non-trauma center.

The interaction between pre-admission β-blocker therapy, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, and mortality in geriatric hip fracture patients

BACKGROUND

An association between β-blocker (BB) therapy and a reduced risk of major cardiac events and mortality in patients undergoing surgery for hip fractures has previously been demonstrated. Furthermore, a relationship between an increased Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score and a higher risk of postoperative mortality has also been detected. The purpose of the current study was to investigate the interaction between BB therapy and RCRI in relation to 30-day postoperative mortality in geriatric patients after hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

All patients older than 65 years who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2017, except for pathological fractures, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Patients were divided into cohorts based on their RCRI score (RCRI 1, 2, 3, and ≥4) and whether they had ongoing BB therapy at the time of admission. A Poisson regression model with robust standard errors of variance was used, while adjusting for confounders, to evaluate the association between BB therapy, RCRI, and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 126,934 cases met the study inclusion criteria. β-Blocker therapy was associated with a 65% decrease in the risk of 30-day postoperative mortality in the whole study population (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.35 [0.32-0.38]; p < 0.001). The use of BB also resulted in a significant reduction in 30-day postoperative mortality within all RCRI cohorts. However, the most pronounced effect of BB therapy was seen in patients with an RCRI score greater than 0.

CONCLUSION

β-Blocker therapy is associated with a reduction in 30-day postoperative mortality, irrespective of RCRI score. Furthermore, patients with an elevated cardiac risk appear to have a greater benefit of BB therapy.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/care management, level II.

Mortality risk stratification in isolated severe traumatic brain injury using the revised cardiac risk index

PURPOSE

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) continues to be a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. As cardiovascular events are among the most common extracranial causes of death after a severe TBI, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) could potentially aid in the risk stratification of this patient population. This investigation aimed to determine the association between the RCRI and in-hospital deaths among isolated severe TBI patients.

METHODS

All adult patients registered in the TQIP database between 2013 and 2017 who suffered an isolated severe TBI, defined as a head AIS ≥ 3 with an AIS ≤ 1 in all other body regions, were included. Patients were excluded if they had a head AIS of 6. The association between different RCRI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4) and in-hospital mortality was analyzed using a Poisson regression model with robust standard errors while adjusting for potential confounders, with RCRI 0 as the reference.

RESULTS

259,399 patients met the study's inclusion criteria. RCRI 2 was associated with a 6% increase in mortality risk [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.06 (1.01-1.12), p = 0.027], RCRI 3 was associated with a 17% increased risk of mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.17 (1.05-1.31), p = 0.004], and RCRI ≥ 4 was associated with a 46% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR(95% CI) 1.46 (1.11-1.90), p = 0.006], compared to RCRI 0.

CONCLUSION

An elevated RCRI ≥ 2 is significantly associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality among patients with an isolated severe traumatic brain injury. The simplicity and bedside applicability of the index makes it an attractive choice for risk stratification in this patient population.

The consequences of out-of-hours hip fracture surgery: insights from a retrospective nationwide study

Purpose

The study aimed to investigate the association between out-of-hours surgery and postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. Furthermore, internal fixation and arthroplasty were compared to determine if a difference could be observed in patients operated with these techniques at different times during the day.

Methods

All patients above 18 of age years in Sweden who underwent hip fracture surgery between 2008 and 2017 were eligible for inclusion. Pathological fractures, non-operatively managed fractures, or cases whose time of surgery was missing were excluded. The cohort was subdivided into on-hour (08:00–17:00) and out-of-hours surgery (17:00–08:00). Poisson regression with adjustments for confounders was used to evaluate the association between out-of-hours surgery and both 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality.

Results

Out-of-hours surgery was associated with a 5% increase in the risk of both 30-day [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.05 (1.00–1.10), p = 0.040] and 90-day [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.05 (1.01–1.09), p = 0.005] mortality after hip fracture surgery compared to on-hour surgery. There was no statistically significant association between out-of-hours surgery and postoperative mortality among patients who received an internal fixation. Arthroplasties performed out-of-hours were associated with a 13% increase in 30-day postoperative mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.13 (1.04–1.23), p = 0.005] and an 8% increase in 90-day postoperative mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.08 (1.01–1.15), p = 0.022] compared to on-hour surgery.

Conclusion

Out-of-hours surgical intervention is associated with an increase in both 30- and 90-day postoperative mortality among hip fracture patients who received an arthroplasty, but not among patients who underwent internal fixation.

The Association Between Revised Cardiac Risk Index and Postoperative Mortality Following Elective Colon Cancer Surgery: A Retrospective Nationwide Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Despite improvements in the perioperative care during the last decades for oncologic colon resection, there is still a substantial risk for postoperative complications and mortality. Opportunities exist for improvement in preoperative risk stratification in this patient population. We hypothesize that the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, a user-friendly tool, could better identify patients with high postoperative mortality risks.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of operated patients between the years 2007 and 2017 was undertaken, using the prospectively recorded Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry, which has a 99.5% national coverage for all cases of colon cancer. Patients were cross-referenced with the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare dataset, a government registry of mortality and comorbidity data. Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) scores were calculated for each patient and stratified into four groups (RCRI 1, 2, 3, ⩾ 4). A Poisson regression model with robust standard errors of variance was employed to correlate the 90-day postoperative survival with each level of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index.

RESULTS

A total of 24,198 patients met the study inclusion criteria. 90-day postoperative mortality increased from 2.4% in patients with RCRI 1 to 10.1% in patients with RCRI ⩾ 4 (p < 0.001). Adjusted 90-day postoperative mortality increased linearly with an increasing RCRI, where an RCRI of 2, 3, and ≥ 4 respectively led to a 46%, 80%, and 167% increased risk of mortality compared to RCRI 1 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A strong association between an increasing Revised Cardiac Risk Index score and increased 90-day postoperative mortality risk was detected. The Revised Cardiac Risk Index may facilitate risk stratification of patients undergoing elective colon cancer surgery.

Statin Use and Long-Term Mortality after Rectal Cancer Surgery

BACKGROUND

The current study aimed to assess the association between regular statin therapy and postoperative long-term all-cause and cancer-specific mortality following curative surgery for rectal cancer. The hypothesis was that statin exposure would be associated with better survival.

METHODS

Patients with stage I-III rectal cancer undergoing surgical resection with curative intent were extracted from the nationwide, prospectively collected, Swedish Colorectal Cancer Register (SCRCR) for the period from January 2007 and October 2016. Patients were defined as having ongoing statin therapy if they had filled a statin prescription within 12 months before and after surgery. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to investigate the association between statin use and postoperative five-year all-cause and cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 10,743 patients who underwent a surgical resection with curative intent for rectal cancer. Twenty-six percent (n = 2797) were classified as having ongoing statin therapy. Statin users had a considerably decreased risk of all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60-0.73, p < 0.001) and cancer-specific (adjusted HR 0.60, 95% CI: 0.47-0.75, p < 0.001) mortality up to five years following surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Statin use was associated with a lower risk of both all-cause and rectal cancer-specific mortality following curative surgical resections for rectal cancer. The findings should be confirmed in future prospective clinical trials.

Postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients stratified by the Revised Cardiac Risk Index: a Swedish nationwide retrospective cohort study

Objectives

The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) is a tool that can be used to evaluate the 30-day risk of postoperative myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest and mortality. This study aims to confirm its association with postoperative mortality in patients who underwent hip fracture surgery.

Methods

All adults who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017 were included in this study. The database was retrieved by cross-referencing the Swedish National Quality Register for hip fractures with the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare registers. The outcomes of interest were the association between the RCRI score and mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 1 year postoperatively.

Results

134 915 cases were included in the current study. There was a statistically significant linear trend in postoperative mortality with increasing RCRI scores at 30 days, 90 days and 1 year. An RCRI score ≥4 was associated with a 3.1 times greater risk of 30-day postoperative mortality (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.13, p<0.001), a 2.5 times greater risk of 90-day postoperative mortality (adjusted IRR 2.54, p<0.001) and a 2.8 times greater risk of 1-year postoperative mortality (adjusted HR 2.81, p<0.001) compared with that observed with an RCRI score of 0.

Conclusion

An increasing RCRI score is strongly associated with an elevated risk 30-day, 90-day and 1-year postoperative mortality after primary hip fracture surgery. The objective and easily retrievable nature of the variables included in the RCRI calculation makes it an appealing choice for risk stratification in the clinical setting.

Levels of evidence

Level III.

Beta-Blocker Therapy Is Associated With Increased 1-Year Survival After Hip Fracture Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The high mortality rates seen within the first postoperative year after hip fracture surgery have remained relatively unchanged in many countries for the past 15 years. Recent investigations have shown an association between beta-blocker (BB) therapy and a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality within the first 90 days after hip fracture surgery. We hypothesized that preoperative, and continuous postoperative, BB therapy may also be associated with a decrease in mortality within the first year after hip fracture surgery.

β-Adrenergic blockade in patients with dementia and hip fracture is associated with decreased postoperative mortality

Purpose

Dementia, present in 20% of hip fracture patients, is associated with an almost threefold increase in postoperative mortality risk. These patients have a substantially higher incidence of cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular mortality after hip fracture surgery compared to patients without dementia. This study aimed to investigate the association between beta-blocker therapy and postoperative mortality in patients with dementia undergoing hip fracture surgery.

Methods

This nationwide study included all patients in Sweden with the diagnosis of dementia who underwent emergency surgery for a hip fracture between January 2008 and December 2017. Cases where the hip fracture was pathological or conservatively managed were not included. Poisson regression analysis with robust standard errors was performed while controlling for confounders to determine the relationship between beta-blocker therapy and all-cause, as well as cause-specific, postoperative mortality.

Results

A total of 26,549 patients met the study inclusion criteria, of whom 8258 (31%) had ongoing beta-blocker therapy at time of admission. After adjusting for clinically relevant variables, the incidence of postoperative mortality in patients receiving beta-blocker therapy was decreased by 50% at 30 days [adj. IRR (95% CI) 0.50 (0.45–0.54), p < 0.001] and 34% at 90 days [adj. IRR (95% CI) 0.66 (0.62–0.70), p < 0.001]. Cause-specific mortality analysis demonstrated a significant reduction in the incidence of postoperative cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular death within 30 and 90 days postoperatively.

Conclusion

Beta-blocker therapy is associated with decreased postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients with dementia up to 90 days after surgery. This finding warrants further investigation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00068-021-01723-y.

Epidural analgesia and mortality after colorectal cancer surgery: A retrospective cohort study

Background

Epidural analgesia (EA) has been the standard of care after major abdominal surgery for many years. This study aimed to correlate EA with postoperative complications, short- and long-term mortality in patients with and without EA after open surgery (OS) and minimally invasive surgery (MIS) for colorectal cancer.

Methods

Patient, clinical and outcome data were obtained from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry and the Swedish Perioperative Registry. All adult patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer without metastases who underwent elective curative MIS or OS for colorectal cancer between January 2016 and December 2018 and who had data recorded in both registries, were included in the study. Data were analyzed for OS and MIS procedures separately. A Poisson regression model was used to investigate the association between EA and the outcomes of interest.

Results

Five thousand seven hundred sixty-two patients were included in the study, 2712 in the MIS and 3050 patients in the OS group. After adjusting for patient specific and clinically relevant variables in the regression model, no statistically significant difference in risk for complications; 30-day, 90-day, and up to 3-year mortality following either MIS or OS could be detected between the EA+ and EA-cohorts.

Conclusions

In this large study cohort, EA as part of the comprehensive care provided was not associated with a reduction in postoperative complications risk or improved 30-day, 90-day, or 3-year survival after MIS or OS for colorectal cancer.

•

No reduction in postoperative complications with epidural analgesia.

•

No reduction in short-term mortality with epidural analgesia after colorectal surgery.

•

No reduction in long-term mortality with epidural analgesia in colorectal cancer.

Predictive Values of Preoperative Characteristics for 30-Day Mortality in Traumatic Hip Fracture Patients

Hip fracture patients have a high risk of mortality after surgery, with 30-day postoperative rates as high as 10%. This study aimed to explore the predictive ability of preoperative characteristics in traumatic hip fracture patients as they relate to 30-day postoperative mortality using readily available variables in clinical practice. All adult patients who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between 2008 and 2017 were included in the analysis. Associations between the possible predictors and 30-day mortality was performed using a multivariate logistic regression (LR) model; the bidirectional stepwise method was used for variable selection. An LR model and convolutional neural network (CNN) were then fitted for prediction. The relative importance of individual predictors was evaluated using the permutation importance and Gini importance. A total of 134,915 traumatic hip fracture patients were included in the study. The CNN and LR models displayed an acceptable predictive ability for predicting 30-day postoperative mortality using a test dataset, displaying an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of as high as 0.76. The variables with the highest importance in prediction were age, sex, hypertension, dementia, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Both the CNN and LR models achieved an acceptable performance in identifying patients at risk of mortality 30 days after hip fracture surgery. The most important variables for prediction, based on the variables used in the current study are age, hypertension, dementia, sex, ASA classification, and RCRI.

Statin therapy and postoperative short-term mortality after rectal cancer surgery

AIM

This study aimed to assess the correlation between regular statin therapy and postoperative mortality following surgical resection for rectal cancer.

METHOD

This retrospective cohort study included all adult patients undergoing abdominal rectal cancer surgery in Sweden between January 2007 and September 2016. Data were gathered from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry, a large population-based prospectively collected registry. Statin users were defined as patients with one or more collected prescriptions of a statin within 12 months before the date of surgery. The statin-positive and statin-negative cohorts were matched by propensity scores based on baseline demographics.

RESULTS

A total of 11 966 patients underwent surgical resection for rectal cancer, of whom 3019 (25%) were identified as statin users. After applying propensity score matching (1:1), 3017 pairs were available for comparison. In the matched groups, statin users demonstrated reduced 90-day all-cause mortality (0.7% vs. 5.5%, p < 0.001) and also showed significantly reduced cause-specific mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory events, as well as sepsis and multiorgan failure. The significant postoperative survival benefit of statin users was seen despite a higher rate of cardiovascular comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative statin therapy displays a strong association with reduced postoperative mortality following surgical resection for rectal cancer. The results from the current study warrant further investigation to determine whether a causal relationship exists.

The mortality burden in patients with hip fractures and dementia

Purpose

Dementia is strongly associated with postoperative death in patients subjected to hip fracture surgery. Nevertheless, there is a distinct lack of research investigating the cause of postoperative mortality in patients with dementia. This study aims to investigate the distribution and the risk of cause-specific postoperative mortality in patients with dementia compared to the general hip fracture population.

Methods

All adults who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between 1/1/2008 and 31/12/2017 were considered for inclusion. Pathological, conservatively managed fractures, and reoperations were excluded. The database was retrieved by cross-referencing the Swedish National Quality Registry for Hip Fracture patients with the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare quality registers. A Poisson regression model was used to determine the association between dementia and all-cause as well as cause-specific 30-day postoperative mortality.

Results

134,915 cases met the inclusion criteria, of which 20% had dementia at the time of surgery. The adjusted risk of all-cause 30-day postoperative mortality was 67% higher in patients with dementia after hip fracture surgery compared to patients without dementia [adj. IRR (95% CI): 1.67 (1.60–1.75), p < 0.001]. The risk of cause-specific mortality was also higher in patients with dementia, with up to a sevenfold increase in the risk cerebrovascular mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI): 7.43 (4.99–11.07), p < 0.001].

Conclusions

Hip fracture patients with dementia have a higher risk of death in the first 30 days postoperatively, with a substantially higher risk of mortality due to cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular events, compared to patients without dementia.

A nationwide observational cohort study of the relationship between beta-blockade and survival after hip fracture surgery

PURPOSE

Despite advances in the care of hip fractures, this area of surgery is associated with high postoperative mortality. Downregulating circulating catecholamines, released as a response to traumatic injury and surgical trauma, is believed to reduce the risk of death in noncardiac surgical patients. This effect has not been studied in hip fractures. This study aims to assess whether survival benefits are gained by reducing the effects of the hyper-adrenergic state with beta-blocker therapy in patients undergoing emergency hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

This is a retrospective nationwide observational cohort study. All adults [Formula: see text] 18 years were identified from the prospectively collected national quality register for hip fractures in Sweden during a 10-year period. Pathological fractures were excluded. The cohort was subdivided into beta-blocker users and non-users. Poisson regression with robust standard errors and adjustments for confounders was used to evaluate 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

134,915 patients were included of whom 38.9% had ongoing beta-blocker therapy at the time of surgery. Beta-blocker users were significantly older and less fit for surgery. Crude 30-day all-cause mortality was significantly increased in non-users (10.0% versus 3.7%, p < 0.001). Beta-blocker therapy resulted in a 72% relative risk reduction in 30-day all-cause mortality (incidence rate ratio 0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.29, p < 0.001) and was independently associated with a reduction in deaths of cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular origin and deaths due to sepsis or multiorgan failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Beta-blockers are associated with significant survival benefits when undergoing emergency hip fracture surgery. Outlined results strongly encourage an interventional design to validate the observed relationship.

Pre-operative beta-blocker therapy does not affect short-term mortality after esophageal resection for cancer

BACKGROUND

It has been postulated that the hyperadrenergic state caused by surgical trauma is associated with worse outcomes and that β-blockade may improve overall outcome by downregulation of adrenergic activity. Esophageal resection is a surgical procedure with substantial risk for postoperative mortality. There is insufficient data to extrapolate the existing association between preoperative β-blockade and postoperative mortality to esophageal cancer surgery. This study assessed whether preoperative β-blocker therapy affects short-term postoperative mortality for patients undergoing esophageal cancer surgery.

METHODS

All patients with an esophageal cancer diagnosis that underwent surgical resection with curative intent from 2007 to 2017 were retrospectively identified from the Swedish National Register for Esophagus and Gastric Cancers (NREV). Patients were subdivided into β-blocker exposed and unexposed groups. Propensity score matching was carried out in a 1:1 ratio. The outcome of interest was 90-day postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1466 patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 35% (n = 513) were on regular preoperative β-blocker therapy. Patients on β-blockers were significantly older, more comorbid and less fit for surgery based on their ASA score. After propensity score matching, 513 matched pairs were available for analysis. No difference in 90-day mortality was detected between β-blocker exposed and unexposed patients (6.0% vs. 6.6%, p = 0.798).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative β-blocker therapy is not associated with better short-term survival in patients subjected to curative esophageal tumor resection.

The association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index and short-term mortality after hip fracture surgery

PURPOSE

The post-operative mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and has remained largely unchanged during the last decades. The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) is a tool used to evaluate the 30-day risk of, among other outcomes, post-operative mortality. The aim of this study is to determine the association between the RCRI score and post-operative mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

Data was obtained from the national hip fracture register which was cross-referenced with patients' electronic hospital records. All adults who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Orebro County, Sweden, between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2017, were included. Patients were divided into two cohorts: low RCRI (score = 0-1) and high RCRI (score ≥ 2). A Poisson regression model was employed to investigate the association between a high RCRI score and 30- and 90-day post-operative mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 2443 patients, of whom 446 (18%) had a high RCRI score, were included in the current study. When adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities and type of surgery, the incidence of 30-day mortality increased by 46% in the high RCRI cohort (adj. IRR 1.46, 95% CI, 1.10-1.94, p = 0.010). Similar results were observed for 90-day mortality (adj. IRR 1.50, 95% CI, 1.21-1.84, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The RCRI is applicable to patients that undergo surgery for traumatic hip fractures. A high RCRI score is associated with an increased incidence of both 30- and 90-day post-operative mortality. Future studies to evaluate these findings are needed.

The Role of Glycerol-Containing Drugs in Cerebral Microdialysis: A Retrospective Study on the Effects of Intravenously Administered Glycerol

BACKGROUND

Cerebral microdialysis (CMD) is a valuable tool for monitoring compounds in the cerebral extracellular fluid (ECF). Glycerol is one such compound which is regarded as a marker of cell membrane decomposition. Notably, in some acutely brain-injured patients, CMD-glycerol levels rise without any other apparent indication of cerebral deterioration. The aim of this study was to investigate whether this could be due to an association between CMD-glycerol levels and the administration of glycerol-containing drugs.

METHODS

Microdialysis data were retrospectively retrieved from the hospital's intensive care unit patient data management system (PDMS). All patients who were monitored with CMD for ≥ 96 h were included. Administered drug doses were retrieved from the PDMS and converted to exact doses of glycerol. Cross-correlation analyses were performed between the free, metabolized as well as total administered dose of glycerol and the detrended and differenced CMD-glycerol concentration. These analyses were repeated for two sets of subgroups based upon the individual catheter's graphical trend and its location in relation to the lesion.

RESULTS

There was no significant correlation between the differenced CMD-glycerol levels and drug-administered glycerol. Furthermore, there was no significant correlation between CMD-glycerol and catheter location or graphical trend. However, if the CMD-glycerol levels were detrended, significant but clinically non-relevant correlations were identified (maximum correlation coefficient of 0.1 (0.04-0.15, 95% CI) at a lag of 7 h using the total administered dose of glycerol).

CONCLUSIONS

Glycerol-containing drugs routinely administered intravenously in the clinical setting appear to have a minimal and clinically insignificant effect on levels of glycerol in the cerebral ECF.