Predictors of persistence of ADHD into adulthood: a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis

Neurodevelopmental disorders

Neurodevelopmental disorders such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder, although most commonly considered in childhood, can be lifelong conditions. In this Personal View that is shaped by clinical experience and research, we adopt a conceptual approach. First, we discuss what disorders are neurodevelopmental and why such a grouping is useful. We conclude that both distinction and grouping are helpful and that it is important to take into account the strong overlap across neurodevelopmental disorders. Then we highlight some challenges in bridging research and clinical practice. We discuss the complexity of clinical phenotypes and the importance of the social context. We also argue the importance of viewing neurodevelopmental disorders as traits but highlight that this is not the only approach to use. Finally, we consider developmental change across the life-span. Overall, we argue strongly for a flexible approach in clinical practice that takes into consideration the high level of heterogeneity and overlap in neurodevelopmental disorders and for research to link more closely to what is observed in real-life practice.

Life Span Studies of ADHD-Conceptual Challenges and Predictors of Persistence and Outcome

There is a renewed interest in better conceptualizing trajectories of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) from childhood to adulthood, driven by an increased recognition of long-term impairment and potential persistence beyond childhood and adolescence. This review addresses the following major issues relevant to the course of ADHD in light of current evidence from longitudinal studies: (1) conceptual and methodological issues related to measurement of persistence of ADHD, (2) estimates of persistence rate from childhood to adulthood and its predictors, (3) long-term negative outcomes of childhood ADHD and their early predictors, and (4) the recently proposed new adult-onset ADHD. Estimates of persistence vary widely in the literature, and diagnostic criteria, sample characteristics, and information source are the most important factors explaining variability among studies. Evidence indicates that ADHD severity, comorbid conduct disorder and major depressive disorder, and treatment for ADHD are the main predictors of ADHD persistence from childhood to adulthood. Comorbid conduct disorder and ADHD severity in childhood are the most important predictors of adverse outcomes in adulthood among children with ADHD. Three recent population studies suggested the existence of a significant proportion of individuals who report onset of ADHD symptoms and impairments after childhood. Finally, we highlight areas for improvement to increase our understanding of ADHD across the life span.

Association of Genetic Risk Variants With Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Trajectories in the General Population

IMPORTANCE

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a heritable neurodevelopmental disorder that shows clinical and genetic overlap with other childhood neurodevelopmental disorders. Levels of ADHD symptoms typically decline across childhood and adolescence, although they remain elevated for some individuals. The determinants of symptom persistence and decline are not yet fully understood.

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypothesis that genetic risk variant load for ADHD (indexed by polygenic risk scores [PRS]), but not for other psychiatric disorders, is associated with population-based ADHD symptom trajectories across childhood and adolescence, and to examine whether higher genetic liability for ADHD is correlated with total number of additional neurodevelopmental disorders (multimorbidity) in childhood.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, an ongoing prospective population-based cohort study, has been collecting data on 14 701 children, including 9757 with data on symptoms of ADHD at multiple time points, since September 6, 1990. The primary exposure variables, PRS, were generated using results of a genome-wide association study from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Childhood multimorbidity scores (ages 7-9 years) were measured by total impairments in 4 domains known to share genetic liability with ADHD: IQ, social communication, pragmatic language, and conduct. Data analysis was conducted from March 1 to September 8, 2016.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptom trajectories from ages 4 to 17 years (7 time points).

RESULTS

Among 9757 children with data on symptoms of ADHD at multiple time points (age range, 4-17 years; 4968 boys and 4789 girls), 4 ADHD symptom trajectories were identified: low (82.6%), intermediate (7.7%), childhood-limited (5.8%), and persistent (3.9%). Mean (SE) PRS for ADHD were higher in children in the persistent trajectory (0.254 [0.069]) compared with each of the other 3 trajectories (low, -0.018 [0.014], χ21 = 14.67, P < .001, odds ratio, 1.31; intermediate, 0.054 [0.055], χ21 = 4.70, P = .03, odds ratio, 1.22; and childhood-limited, 0.017 [0.060], χ21 = 6.50, P = .01, odds ratio, 1.27). Findings were specific to PRS for ADHD; PRS for other psychiatric conditions did not differ across trajectories. The proportion of children with multimorbidity was also highest in those in the persistent trajectory (42.5%; 95% CI, 33.9%-51.1%; P < .001) and was associated with persistence of ADHD symptoms independent of PRS.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Persistence of ADHD symptoms across childhood and adolescence in the general population is associated with higher PRS for ADHD. Childhood multimorbidity was also associated with persistence of ADHD symptoms and may help to identify children with ADHD whose symptoms are most likely to continue into adolescence.

The descriptive epidemiology of DSM-IV Adult ADHD in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

We previously reported on the cross-national epidemiology of ADHD from the first 10 countries in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The current report expands those previous findings to the 20 nationally or regionally representative WMH surveys that have now collected data on adult ADHD. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was administered to 26,744 respondents in these surveys in high-, upper-middle-, and low-/lower-middle-income countries (68.5% mean response rate). Current DSM-IV/CIDI adult ADHD prevalence averaged 2.8% across surveys and was higher in high (3.6%)- and upper-middle (3.0%)- than low-/lower-middle (1.4%)-income countries. Conditional prevalence of current ADHD averaged 57.0% among childhood cases and 41.1% among childhood subthreshold cases. Adult ADHD was significantly related to being male, previously married, and low education. Adult ADHD was highly comorbid with DSM-IV/CIDI anxiety, mood, behavior, and substance disorders and significantly associated with role impairments (days out of role, impaired cognition, and social interactions) when controlling for comorbidities. Treatment seeking was low in all countries and targeted largely to comorbid conditions rather than to ADHD. These results show that adult ADHD is prevalent, seriously impairing, and highly comorbid but vastly under-recognized and undertreated across countries and cultures.

Functional Adult Outcomes 16 Years After Childhood Diagnosis of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: MTA Results

OBJECTIVE

To compare educational, occupational, legal, emotional, substance use disorder, and sexual behavior outcomes in young adults with persistent and desistent attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and a local normative comparison group (LNCG) in the Multimodal Treatment Study of Children with ADHD (MTA).

METHOD

Data were collected 12, 14, and 16 years postbaseline (mean age 24.7 years at 16 years postbaseline) from 476 participants with ADHD diagnosed at age 7 to 9 years, and 241 age- and sex-matched classmates. Probands were subgrouped on persistence versus desistence of DSM-5 symptom count. Orthogonal comparisons contrasted ADHD versus LNCG and symptom-persistent (50%) versus symptom-desistent (50%) subgroups. Functional outcomes were measured with standardized and demographic instruments.

RESULTS

Three patterns of functional outcomes emerged. Post-secondary education, times fired/quit a job, current income, receiving public assistance, and risky sexual behavior showed the most common pattern: the LNCG group fared best, symptom-persistent ADHD group worst, and symptom-desistent ADHD group between, with the largest effect sizes between LNCG and symptom-persistent ADHD. In the second pattern, seen with emotional outcomes (emotional lability, neuroticism, anxiety disorder, mood disorder) and substance use outcomes, the LNCG and symptom-desistent ADHD group did not differ, but both fared better than the symptom-persistent ADHD group. In the third pattern, noted with jail time (rare), alcohol use disorder (common), and number of jobs held, group differences were not significant. The ADHD group had 10 deaths compared to one death in the LNCG.

CONCLUSION

Adult functioning after childhood ADHD varies by domain and is generally worse when ADHD symptoms persist. It is important to identify factors and interventions that promote better functional outcomes.