Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Geographic dimensions of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities

Spatially targeted interventions may help protect the public when extreme heat occurs. Health outcome data are increasingly being used to map intra-urban variability in heat-health risks, but there has been little effort to compare patterns and risk factors between cities. We sought to identify places within large metropolitan areas where the mortality rate is highest on hot summer days and determine if characteristics of high-risk areas are consistent from one city to another. A Poisson regression model was adapted to quantify temperature-mortality relationships at the postal code scale based on 2.1 million records of daily all-cause mortality counts from seven U.S. cities. Multivariate spatial regression models were then used to determine the demographic and environmental variables most closely associated with intra-city variability in risk. Significant mortality increases on extreme heat days were confined to 12-44% of postal codes comprising each city. Places with greater risk had more developed land, young, elderly, and minority residents, and lower income and educational attainment, but the key explanatory variables varied from one city to another. Regression models accounted for 14-34% of the spatial variability in heat-related mortality. The results emphasize the need for public health plans for heat to be locally tailored and not assume that pre-identified vulnerability indicators are universally applicable. As known risk factors accounted for no more than one third of the spatial variability in heat-health outcomes, consideration of health outcome data is important in efforts to identify and protect residents of the places where the heat-related health risks are the highest.

Invited commentary: Assessment of air pollution and suicide risk

Suicide is a serious public health issue worldwide, with multiple risk factors, such as severe mental illness, alcohol abuse, a painful loss, exposure to violence, or social isolation. Environmental factors, particularly chemical and meteorological variables, have been examined as risk factors for suicide, but less evidence is available on whether air pollution is related to suicide. In this issue of the Journal, Bakian et al. ( publish findings from a study that found a short-term increased risk of suicide associated with increased air pollution. This study bolsters a small body of research linking air pollution exposure to suicide risk. If the association between air pollution and suicide is confirmed, it would broaden the scope of the already large disease burden associated with air pollution.

Spatiotemporal analysis of particulate air pollution and ischemic heart disease mortality in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

Few studies have used spatially resolved ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM10) to examine the impact of PM10 on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in China. The aim of our study is to evaluate the short-term effects of PM10 concentrations on IHD mortality by means of spatiotemporal analysis approach.

METHODS

We collected daily data on air pollution, weather conditions and IHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2008 and 2009. Ordinary kriging (OK) was used to interpolate daily PM10 concentrations at the centroid of 287 township-level areas based on 27 monitoring sites covering the whole city. A generalized additive mixed model was used to estimate quantitatively the impact of spatially resolved PM10 on the IHD mortality. The co-effects of the seasons, gender and age were studied in a stratified analysis. Generalized additive model was used to evaluate the effects of averaged PM10 concentration as well.

RESULTS

The averaged spatially resolved PM10 concentration at 287 township-level areas was 120.3 ± 78.1 μg/m3. Ambient PM10 concentration was associated with IHD mortality in spatiotemporal analysis and the strongest effects were identified for the 2-day average. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was associated with an increase of 0.33% (95% confidence intervals: 0.13%, 0.52%) in daily IHD mortality. The effect estimates using spatially resolved PM10 were larger than that using averaged PM10. The seasonal stratification analysis showed that PM10 had the statistically stronger effects on IHD mortality in summer than that in the other seasons. Males and older people demonstrated the larger response to PM10 exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that short-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with increased IHD mortality. Spatial variation should be considered for assessing the impacts of particulate air pollution on mortality.

Are children׳s asthmatic symptoms related to ambient temperature? A panel study in Australia

OBJECTIVES

To examine the short-term effects of ambient temperature on respiratory symptoms for school children with asthma across Australia.

METHODS

A panel of 270 children (7-12 years) with asthma was recruited from six Australian cities. They were asked to record their respiratory symptoms every day in the morning (for night-time symptoms) and evening (for daytime symptoms) for four weeks. Daily ambient temperature, relative humidity and air pollution data were obtained from fixed monitors nearby. A mixed logistic regression model was used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on respiratory symptoms adjusted for children's sex, age, standing height, weight and air pollution. Subjects were specified as random effects.

RESULTS

The relationships between ambient temperature and respiratory symptoms were linear. Increasing temperatures induced the risks of children's asthmatic symptoms, especially for "wheeze/chest tightness" and to a lesser extent for "cough/phlegm". The effects were acute and lasted for four days (lag 0-3) in general. With increasing ambient temperature, boys were more at risk than girls.

CONCLUSIONS

High ambient temperature is a risk factor for respiratory symptoms in children with asthma. As ambient temperature increases, policies and strategies for rising temperatures will be necessary to protect asthmatic children.

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984-2007

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been studied extensively. Recent data suggest an independent role of diurnal temperature variations in increasing daily mortality. Elderly adults-a growing subgroup of the population in developed countries-may be more susceptible to the effects of temperature variations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature were associated with daily non-accidental mortality among residents of Montreal, Québec, who were 65 years of age and over during the period between 1984 and 2007. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models constrained over a 30-day lag period, adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone to estimate changes in daily mortality with diurnal temperature. We found, over the 30 day lag period, a cumulative increase in daily mortality of 5.12% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02-10.49%] for a change from 5.9 °C to 11.1 °C (25th to 75th percentiles) in diurnal temperature, and a 11.27% (95%CI: 2.08-21.29%) increase in mortality associated with an increase of diurnal temperature from 11.1 to 17.5 °C (75th to 99th percentiles). The results were relatively robust to adjustment for daily mean temperature. We found that, in Montreal, diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in non-accidental mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm this effect.

Short-term effects of air temperature on mortality and effect modification by air pollution in three cities of Bavaria, Germany: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Air temperature has been shown to be associated with mortality; however, only very few studies have been conducted in Germany. This study examined the association between daily air temperature and cause-specific mortality in Bavaria, Southern Germany. Moreover, we investigated effect modification by age and ambient air pollution.

METHODS

We obtained data from Munich, Nuremberg as well as Augsburg, Germany, for the period 1990 to 2006. Data included daily cause-specific death counts, mean daily meteorology and air pollution concentrations (particulate matter with a diameter<10 μm [PM10] and maximum 8-h ozone). We used Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models adjusting for long-term trend, calendar effects, and meteorological factors. Air pollutant concentrations were categorized into three levels, and an interaction term was included to quantify potential effect modification of the air temperature effects.

RESULTS

The temperature-mortality relationships were non-linear for all cause-specific mortality categories showing U- or J-shaped curves. An increase from the 90th (20.0 °C) to the 99th percentile (24.8 °C) of 2-day average temperature led to an increase in non-accidental mortality by 11.4% (95% CI: 7.6%-15.3%), whereas a decrease from the 10th (-1.0 °C) to the 1st percentile (-7.5 °C) in the 15-day average temperature resulted in an increase of 6.2% (95% CI: 1.8%-10.8%). The very old were found to be most susceptible to heat effects. Results also suggested some effect modification by ozone, but not for PM10.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that both very low and very high air temperature increase cause-specific mortality in Bavaria. Results also pointed to the importance of considering effect modification by age and ozone in assessing temperature effects on mortality.

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: an epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

BACKGROUND

Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China.

METHOD

We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities.

RESULTS

Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050).

CONCLUSION

Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

Heat-related deaths in hot cities: estimates of human tolerance to high temperature thresholds

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (AT_max) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between AT_max on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (AT_max = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (AT_max = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as AT_max at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (AT_max = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (AT_max = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (AT_max = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (AT_max = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

The impact of heatwaves on mortality in Australia: a multicity study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the heterogeneity of heatwave-related impacts on mortality across different cities.

DESIGN

A multicity time series study.

SETTING

3 largest Australian cities: Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney.

PARTICIPANTS

All residents living in these cities.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Non-external causes mortality data by gender and two age groups (ie, 0-75 and 75+) for these cities during the period 1988-2009 were obtained from relevant government agencies.

RESULTS

Total mortality increased mostly within the same day (lag 0) or a lag of 1 day (lag 1) during almost all heatwaves in three cities. Using the heatwave definition (HWD) as the 95th centile of mean temperature for two or more consecutive days in the summer season, the relative risk for total mortality at lag 1 in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney was 1.13 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.19), 1.10 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.14) and 1.06 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.10), respectively. Using the more stringent HWD-the 99th centile of mean temperature for two or more consecutive days, the relative risk of total mortality at the lags of 0-2 days in Brisbane and Melbourne was 1.40 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.51) and 1.47 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.59), respectively. Elderly, particularly females, were more vulnerable to the impact of heatwaves.

CONCLUSIONS

A consistent and significant increase in mortality was observed during heatwaves in the three largest Australian cities, but the impacts of heatwave appeared to vary with age, gender, the HWD and geographical area.

Extreme ambient temperatures and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits: assessing risk by comorbid health conditions in a time series study

BACKGROUND

Extreme ambient temperatures are an increasing public health concern. The aim of this study was to assess if persons with comorbid health conditions were at increased risk of adverse cardiorespiratory morbidity during temperature extremes.

METHODS

A time series study design was applied to 292,666 and 562,738 emergency room (ER) visits for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively, that occurred in Toronto area hospitals between April 1st 2002 and March 31st 2010. Subgroups of persons with comorbid health conditions were identified. Relative risks (RRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Poisson regression model with distributed lag non-linear model, and were adjusted for the confounding influence of seasonality, relative humidity, day-of-the-week, outdoor air pollutants and daily influenza ER visits. Effect modification by comorbid health conditions was tested using the relative effect modification (REM) index.

RESULTS

Stronger associations of cardiovascular disease ER visits were observed for persons with diabetes compared to persons without diabetes (REM = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.27) with exposure to the cumulative short term effect of extreme hot temperatures (i.e. 99th percentile of temperature distribution vs. 75th percentile). Effect modification was also found for comorbid respiratory disease (REM = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.44) and cancer (REM = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.49) on respiratory disease ER visits during short term hot temperature episodes. The effect of extreme cold temperatures (i.e. 1st percentile of temperature distribution vs. 25th percentile) on cardiovascular disease ER visits were stronger for individuals with comorbid cardiac diseases (REM = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.06 - 2.23) and kidney diseases (REM = 2.43; 95% CI: 1.59 - 8.83) compared to those without these conditions when cumulated over a two-week period.

CONCLUSIONS

The identification of those most susceptible to temperature extremes is important for public health officials to implement adaptation measures to manage the impact of extreme temperatures on population health.

An Australian national panel study of diurnal temperature range and children's respiratory health

BACKGROUND

It is still uncertain whether diurnal temperature range (DTR) affects children's respiratory function.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of DTR on lung function and respiratory symptoms for school children with asthma in Australia.

METHODS

A panel of 270 children (ages 7-12 years) with asthma living in 6 Australian cities was recruited. They were asked to perform 3 successive forced expiratory maneuvers using a portable electronic peak flow meter twice daily for 4 weeks. The highest values for peak expiratory flow (PEF) were stored for each session. At the same time, they were asked to record their respiratory symptoms (eg, cough and/or phlegm and wheeze and/or chest tightness) every day in the morning (for nighttime symptoms) and evening (for daytime symptoms). Daily data on different metrics of ambient temperature and air pollution were obtained from fixed monitors nearby. Relative humidity data were downloaded from the Weather Underground website. Mixed models, adjusting for children's individual characteristics and air pollution, were used to examine the effects of DTR on PEF and respiratory symptoms.

RESULTS

DTR had linear effects on PEF and respiratory symptoms. An increase in DTR induced a reduction in PEF and increased the occurrence of respiratory symptoms. In general, the effects lasted for 3 days (lag, 0-2 days). The effects occurred for both boys and girls.

CONCLUSION

Our findings provide evidence that DTR had significant effects on lung function and respiratory symptoms for children with asthma. These results indicate that it is important and necessary to protect children with asthma from the effect of unstable weather.

Submicrometer particles and their effects on the association between air temperature and mortality in Brisbane, Australia

Air temperature and pollution can jointly affect human health. Submicrometer particles appearing to have particularly harmful effects compared with the coarse ones. However, little is known about how the association between temperature and mortality is affected by these particles. This study examined the association between air temperature and mortality before and after adjustment for particle concentrations among different age and disease groups from 1995 to 2000 in Brisbane, Australia. The monitoring of particle size distribution within the 15-750nm range was carried out by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer. Corresponding climate and air pollutant data were collected from relevant government agencies. The association between temperature and mortality was quantified using a Poisson time-series model within a distributed lag non-linear modelling framework. The results showed that the effects of air temperature on mortality were lower among the elderly and people with respiratory diseases, and greater among people with cardiovascular diseases after controlling for submicrometer particle concentrations. Submicrometer particles seem to be an important confounder for the temperature-mortality relationship, particularly among vulnerable groups, and should be taken into account when assessing the impacts of air temperature on human health.

Assessing weather effects on dengue disease in Malaysia

The number of dengue cases has been increasing on a global level in recent years, and particularly so in Malaysia, yet little is known about the effects of weather for identifying the short-term risk of dengue for the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the weather effects on dengue disease accounting for non-linear temporal effects in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, from 2008 to 2010. We selected the weather parameters with a Poisson generalized additive model, and then assessed the effects of minimum temperature, bi-weekly accumulated rainfall and wind speed on dengue cases using a distributed non-linear lag model while adjusting for trend, day-of-week and week of the year. We found that the relative risk of dengue cases is positively associated with increased minimum temperature at a cumulative percentage change of 11.92% (95% CI: 4.41-32.19), from 25.4 °C to 26.5 °C, with the highest effect delayed by 51 days. Increasing bi-weekly accumulated rainfall had a positively strong effect on dengue cases at a cumulative percentage change of 21.45% (95% CI: 8.96, 51.37), from 215 mm to 302 mm, with the highest effect delayed by 26-28 days. The wind speed is negatively associated with dengue cases. The estimated lagged effects can be adapted in the dengue early warning system to assist in vector control and prevention plan.

The characteristic of heat wave effects on coronary heart disease mortality in Beijing, China: a time series study

Background

There is limited evidence for the impacts of heat waves on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Beijing, capital city of China.

Objectives

We aimed to find a best heat wave definition for CHD mortality; and explore the characteristic of heat wave effects on CHD in Beijing, China.

Methods

We obtained daily data on weather and CHD mortality in Beijing for years 2000–2011. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the short-term impact of heat waves on CHD mortality in hot season (May–September), while controlling for relative humidity, day of the week, long-term trend and season. We compared 18 heat wave definitions by combining heat wave thresholds (87.5^th, 90.0^th, 92.5^th, 95^th, 97.5^th, and 99^th percentile of daily mean temperature) with different duration days (≥ 2 to ≥ 4 days), using Akaike information criterion for quasi-Poisson. We examined whether heat wave effects on CHD mortality were modified by heat wave duration and timing.

Results

Heat wave definition using 97.5^th percentile of daily mean temperature (30.5 °C) and duration ≥ 2 days produced the best model fit. Based on this heat wave definition, we found that men and elderly were sensitive to the first heat waves of the season, while women and young were sensitive to the second heat waves. In general, the longer duration of heat waves increased the risks of CHD mortality more than shorter duration for elderly. The first two days of heat waves had the highest impact on CHD mortality. Women and elderly were at higher risks than men and young when exposed to heat waves, but the effect differences were not statistically significant.

Conclusions

Heat waves had significant impact on CHD mortality. This finding may have implications for policy making towards protecting human health from heat waves.

High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year: important information for heat-warning systems

We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age ≥ 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.