Modified PAGE-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Asians with chronic hepatitis B on antiviral therapy

Reporting and Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Prediction Models: Based on TRIPOD Statement and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The performance of risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) was uncertain. The aim of the study was to critically evaluate the reports of transparent and external validation performances of these prediction models based on system review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic search of the Web of Science and PubMed was performed for studies published until October 17, 2020. The transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for the individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) tool was used to critically evaluate the quality of external validation reports for six models (CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, REACH-B, and mREACH-B). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values was to estimate the pooled external validating performance based on meta-analysis. Subgroup analysis and metaregression were also performed to explore heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Our meta-analysis included 22 studies published between 2011 and 2020. The compliance of the included studies to TRIPOD ranged from 59% to 90% (median, 74%; interquartile range (IQR), 70%, 79%). The AUC values of the six models ranged from 0.715 to 0.778. In the antiviral therapy subgroups, the AUC values of mREACH-B, GAG-HCC, and mPAGE-B were 0.785, 0.760, and 0.778, respectively. In the cirrhosis subgroup, all models had poor discrimination performance (AUC < 0.7).

CONCLUSIONS

A full report of calibration and handling of missing values would contribute to a greater improvement in the quality of external validation reports for CHB-related HCC risk prediction. It was necessary to develop a specific HCC risk prediction model for patients with cirrhosis.

Application of Risk Scores for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: Current Status and Future Perspective

Accurate risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may guide treatment strategies including initiation of antiviral therapy and also inform implementation of HCC surveillance. There have been 26 risk scores developed to predict HCC in CHB patients with (n = 14) or without (n = 12) receiving antiviral treatment; all of them invariably include age in the scoring formula. Virological biomarkers of replicative activities (i.e., hepatitis B virus DNA level or hepatitis B envelope antigen status) are frequently included in the scores derived from patients with untreated CHB, whereas measurements that gauge severity of liver fibrosis and/or reserve of hepatic function (i.e., cirrhosis diagnosis, liver stiffness measurement, platelet count, or albumin) are essential components in the scores developed from treated patients. External validation is a prerequisite for clinical application but not yet performed for all scores. For the future, higher predictive accuracy may be achieved with machine learning based on more comprehensive data.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma by On-Therapy Response of Noninvasive Fibrosis Markers in Chronic Hepatitis B

INTRODUCTION

Antiviral therapy improves hepatic fibrosis and reduces hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence. This study aimed to evaluate whether on-therapy changes in scores for fibrosis index based on 4 factors and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index are associated with HCC development and establish an HCC risk score model incorporating noninvasive fibrosis marker (NFM) response.

METHODS

This multicenter study recruited 5,147 patients with chronic hepatitis B (4,028 for derivation cohort and 1,119 for validation cohort) who were given entecavir/tenofovir for >12 months between 2007 and 2018. A risk prediction model for HCC was developed using predictors based on multivariable Cox models, and bootstrapping was performed for validation.

RESULTS

The 10-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 12.6% and 13.7% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The risk of HCC significantly differed with early NFM response, with a marked reduction in HCC risk in patients achieving a significant decrease in NFM by 12 months (P < 0.001). NFM response, sex, age, and cirrhosis were independently predictive of HCC. We developed the Fibrosis marker response, Sex, Age, and Cirrhosis (FSAC) score based on regression coefficients of each variable. For the 10-year prediction of HCC, FSAC showed higher C-index values than PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, CU-HCC, and REACH-B (0.84 vs 0.77, 0.80, 0.77, and 0.67, respectively; all P < 0.005). The predictive performance of FSAC was corroborated in the validation cohort, with higher C-index than other models (all P < 0.050).

DISCUSSION

On-therapy changes in NFM are an independent indicator of HCC risk. FSAC incorporating NFM response is a reliable risk score for risk estimation for HCC with better performance than other models.

Predictive Nomograms for Clinical Outcomes in Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis Patients Receiving Antiviral Therapy

Objective

Many scores have been constructed to predict liver-related events in chronic hepatitis B, while most of them are based on baseline clinical parameters. The objective of this study was to develop nomograms based on on-treatment improvement in established scores to predict clinical outcomes in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis who are receiving antiviral therapy.

Methods

The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used. Nomograms were constructed for the prediction of liver-related events, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality risk during long-term antiviral therapy.

Results

A total of 277 treatment-naive patients with HBV-associated cirrhosis were enrolled from January 2010 to December 2013. After a median follow-up of 63.3 months, 95 patients developed liver-related events, including 59 patients with liver-related death. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the albumin-bilirubin score at year 1 was an independent predictor of liver-related events, liver-related mortality, and HCC. Age, decompensation, and delayed virological remission were independent factors for liver-related mortality. Age was also a risk factor for liver-related events. The concordance index values of event-nomogram, mortality-nomogram, and HCC-nomogram were 0.742 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.691~0.793), 0.799 (95% CI, 0.748~0.850), and 0.613 (95% CI, 0.540~0.686), respectively. The calibration plots showed an agreement between the predicted and observed incidences, which indicates good calibration of the model of event-nomogram and mortality-nomogram.

Conclusion

The nomograms achieved an optimal preoperative prediction of liver-related events, mortality, and HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis receiving antiviral therapy. These findings may help to identify high-risk patients for further optimal surveillance and intervention strategies.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B: An Update

(1) Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important cause of mortality in individuals with chronic hepatitis B infection, with screening of high-risk groups recommended in all major international guidelines. Our understanding of the risk factors involved has improved over time, encouraging researchers to develop models that predict future risk of HCC development. (2) Methods: A literature search of the PubMed database was carried out to identify studies that derive or validate models predicting HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Subsequently, a second literature search was carried out to explore the potential role of novel viral biomarkers in this field. (3) Results: To date, a total of 23 models have been developed predicting future HCC risk, of which 12 have been derived from cohorts of treatment-naïve individuals. Most models have been developed in Asian populations (n = 20), with a smaller number in Caucasian cohorts (n = 3). All of the models demonstrate satisfactory performance in their original derivation cohorts, but many lack external validation. In recent studies, novel viral biomarkers have demonstrated utility in predicting HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B, amongst both treated and treatment-naïve patients. (4) Conclusion: Several models have been developed to predict the risk of HCC development in individuals with chronic hepatitis B infection, but many have not been externally validated outside of the Asian population. Further research is needed to refine these models and facilitate a more tailored HCC surveillance programme in the future.

Twelve-month post-treatment parameters are superior in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There are currently several prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving oral antiviral therapy. However, most models are based on pre-treatment clinical parameters. The current study aimed to develop a novel and practical prediction model for HCC by using both pre- and post-treatment parameters in this population.

METHODS

We included two treatment-naïve CHB cohorts who were initiated on oral antiviral therapies: the derivation cohort (n = 1480, Korea prospective SAINT cohort) and the validation cohort (n = 426, the US retrospective Stanford Bay cohort). We employed logistic regression, decision tree, lasso regression, support vector machine and random forest algorithms to develop the HCC prediction model and selected the most optimal method.

RESULTS

We evaluated both pre-treatment and the 12-month clinical parameters on-treatment and found the 12-month on-treatment values to have superior HCC prediction performance. The lasso logistic regression algorithm using the presence of cirrhosis at baseline and alpha-foetoprotein and platelet at 12 months showed the best performance (AUROC = 0.843 in the derivation cohort. The model performed well in the external validation cohort (AUROC = 0.844) and better than other existing prediction models including the APA, PAGE-B and GAG models (AUROC = 0.769 to 0.818).

CONCLUSIONS

We provided a simple-to-use HCC prediction model based on presence of cirrhosis at baseline and two objective laboratory markers (AFP and platelets) measured 12 months after antiviral initiation. The model is highly accurate with excellent validation in an external cohort from a different country (AUROC 0.844) (Clinical trial number: KCT0003487).

Assessing risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian countries. Several HCC risk prediction models have been developed using either treated or untreated CHB patients. However, there is limited validation of these risk scores in a treated and untreated mixed CHB patient cohort. This study analysed and validated HCC risk scores among 2208 CHB patients who enrolled in the HCC surveillance programme in Thailand during July 2010. The baseline clinical and radiologic data of these CHB patients were applied to calculate various HCC risk scores. There were 20 patients (0.9%) with HCC development at the 5.9-year follow-up. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) predicting HCC risk at 5 years were 0.80 (0.68-0.91), 0.73 (0.60-0.85), 0.79 (0.67-0.91), 0.70 (0.58-0.82), 0.72 (0.59-0.85), 0.76 (0.63-0.87) and 0.77 (0.64-0.89) for the GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD and AASL scores, respectively. The overall HCC risk scores were accurate and comparable. However, the subgroup analysis revealed better HCC-risk-predictive performance in the treated patients, while performance was less helpful in those not fulfilling criteria for antiviral therapy. Clinicians should be aware of these data when using the HCC risk score in untreated CHB patients.

Comparison of Long-Term Clinical Outcomes Between Spontaneous and Therapy-Induced HBsAg Seroclearance

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HBsAg seroclearance is considered a realistic goal in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), known as "functional cure." However, it remains elusive whether nucleos(t)ide analogue (NUC)-induced HBsAg seroclearance, compared with spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance, differs in its association with favorable long-term clinical outcomes.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A total of 1,972 CHB patients with confirmed HBsAg seroclearance at least two consecutive times, 6 months apart, were retrospectively analyzed. Risks of HCC development and composite clinical events, including HCC, liver-related death, and liver transplantation, were compared between spontaneous and NUC-induced HBsAg seroclearance. Of 1,972 patients, mean patient age was 53.7 years, and 64.4% were men. Cirrhosis was present in 297 (15.1%) patients. HBsAg seroclearance was achieved spontaneously in 1,624 (82.4%) patients and by NUC treatment in 348 (17.6%). HCC developed in 49 patients, with an annual incidence of 0.38 of 100 person-years (PY) during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. With 336 propensity-score-matched pairs, risks of HCC (P = 0.52) and clinical events (P = 0.14) were not significantly different between NUC-induced and spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. By multivariable analysis, NUC-induced HBsAg seroclearance, compared with spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance, was not associated with the significantly higher risk of HCC (adjusted HR [AHR], 1.49; P = 0.26) and clinical events (AHR, 1.78; P = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Risks of HCC and clinical events were not significantly different between spontaneous and NUC-induced HBsAg seroclearance. Nonetheless, annual risk of HCC exceeds the recommended cutoff for HCC surveillance even after HBsAg seroclearance, suggesting that continued HCC surveillance is required.

External validation of CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores for Asian chronic hepatitis B patients with well-controlled viremia by antivirals

CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores, consisting of age and fibrotic burden as cirrhosis and/or liver stiffness, were recently proposed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk among Caucasian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients undergoing long-term antiviral therapy. We externally validated their predictive performances among an independent cohort from Asia, compared to other conventional prediction models. We consecutively recruited CHB patients with well-controlled viremia (serum HBV DNA < 2000 IU/mL) receiving antiviral therapy. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at baseline were excluded. Among 1763 patients, CAGE-B score provided the highest Heagerty's integrated area under the curve (iAUC) (0.820), followed by SAGE-B (0.804), mREACH-B (0.800), CAMD (0.786), mPAGE-B (0.748) and PAGE-B (0.721) scores. CAGE-B score showed a significantly better performance than SAGE-B, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores, but was similar to mREACH-B. SAGE-B score also showed significantly better performance than mPAGE-B and PAGE-B, but was similar to CAMD and mREACH-B. According to CAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, the annual HCC incidences were 0.18, 1.34 and 6.03 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Likewise, by SAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, those were 0.31, 1.49 and 8.96 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Hence, CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores showed acceptable predictive performances for Asian CHB patients undergoing antiviral therapy, with the higher performance by CAGE-B score. They show a trend towards better prognostic capability to predict HCC risk than previous models.

Prediction models for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian-Pacific regions. Antiviral therapy reduces, but does not completely prevent, HCC development. Thus, there is a need for accurate risk prediction to assist prognostication and decisions on the need for antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. A few risk scores have been developed to predict the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients. Initially, the scores were derived from untreated CHB patients. With the development and extensive clinical application of nucleos(t)ide analog(s) (NA), the number of risk scores based on treated CHB patients has increased gradually. The components included in risk scores may be categorized into host factors and hepatitis B virus factors. Hepatitis activities, hepatitis B virus factors, and even liver fibrosis or cirrhosis are relatively controlled by antiviral therapy. Therefore, variables that are more dynamic during antiviral therapy have since been included in risk scores. However, host factors are more difficult to modify. Most existing scores derived from Asian populations have been confirmed to be accurate in predicting HCC development in CHB patients from Asia, while these scores have not offered excellent predictability in Caucasian patients. These findings support that more relevant variables should be considered to provide individualized predictions that are easily applied to CHB patients of different ethnicities. CHB patients should receive different intensities of HCC surveillance according to their risk category.

Validation of the HCC-RESCUE score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy

The HCC-RESCUE score was developed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in Korean chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients under entecavir therapy. We aimed to validate the HCC-RESCUE score to predict HCC risk in Caucasian CHB patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy and to compare the predictive performance of the HCC-RESCUE score with those of the CAMD, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores. The study included 647 nucleos(t)ide analogue-naive noncirrhotic and compensated/decompensated cirrhotic patients who had received entecavir or tenofovir for ≥6 months and did not develop HCC during the first 6 months of therapy. Patients with HCC-RESCUE scores ≤64, 65-84 and ≥85 points were classified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively. The AUROCs of the HCC-RESCUE, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores to predict HCC risk at 5 years were 0.875, 0.870, 0.866 and 0.880, and those at 10 years were 0.862, 0.845, 0.841 and 0.862, respectively (both p > .05). Cumulative HCC incidences at 5 years were 0.0%, 10.5% and 15.8%, and those at 10 years were 1.4%, 15.5% and 24.9%, respectively, in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups based on the HCC-RESCUE score (both log rank p < .001). In the entecavir versus tenofovir cohorts, the AUROCs of the HCC-RESCUE score to predict HCC risk at 5 and 10 years were 0.831 versus 0.898 and 0.803 versus 0.910, respectively (both p > .05). The HCC-RESCUE score accurately predicted HCC risk in Caucasian CHB patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy. A substantial proportion of patients can be dropped from HCC surveillance by using the HCC-RESCUE score.

Dynamic evaluation of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving nucleotide/nucleoside analogue treatment

Carcinogenesis risk scores for chronic hepatitis B have been proposed, but it remains unclear whether these scores during nucleoside/nucleotide analogue (NA) therapy are useful for risk assessment. In this study, we examined changes of these scores and the predictability during NA treatment. 432 patients with no history of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with NA were enrolled. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and REACH-B scores were calculated at NA administration, 1 and 2 years after administration. The median follow-up duration was 5.1 years, during which 37 patients (8.6%) developed HCC. Cumulative incidence HCC development in patients with high risk of PAGE at NA administration, and 1 and 2 years after NA administration was significantly higher than those with intermediate and low-risk groups (p < .05 for all time points), whereas HCC incidence in patients with high risk of mPAGE-B and REACH-B at 2 years after NA administration were equivalent to those with intermediate and low-risk groups (p = .2 for mPAGE-B, and p = .1 for REACH-B). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for HCC development of PAGE-B at NA administration, and 1 and 2 years after administration were 0.773, 0.803 and 0.737, respectively. The AUROCs of PAGE-B at each point were continuously higher than those of REACH-B (0.646, 0.725, and 0.653, respectively) and mPAGE-B (0.754, 0.734, and 0.678, respectively).PAGE-B score has a high diagnostic accuracy for HCC development at any time point during NA treatment, indicating its potential use as a real-time monitor of HCC development.

Predictive performance of newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in treated Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B

Background & Aims

Recently, several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but they have not been assessed in non-Asian patients. We evaluated the predictability and comparative utility of our PAGE-B and recent Asian HCC risk scores in nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-treated adult Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without well-documented compensated cirrhosis but not previous diagnosis of HCC.

Methods

We included 1,951 patients treated with entecavir/tenofovir and followed up for a median of 7.6 years. The c-statistic was used to estimate the predictability of PAGE-B, HCC-Rescue, CAMD, mPAGE-B, and AASL score for HCC development within 5 or 10 years. The low- and high-risk group cut-offs were used for estimation of negative (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV), respectively.

Results

HCC developed in 103/1,951 (5.3%) patients during the first 5 years and in another 39/1,428 (2.7%) patients between years 5 and 10. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative HCC rates were 3.3%, 5.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. All scores offered good 5- and 10-year HCC prediction (c-statistic: 0.78–0.82). NPVs were always >99% (99.3–100%), whereas PPV ranged between 13% and 24%.

Conclusions

In NA-treated Caucasian patients with CHB including compensated cirrhosis, HCC risk scores developed in NA-treated Asian patients offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis, but the addition of albumin in mPAGE-B score does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well compensated liver disease.

Lay summary

Several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In Caucasian patients with CHB treated with oral antivirals, newer Asian HCC risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. For clinical practice, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.

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In treated Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B, newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B.

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PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.

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The addition of albumin in mPAGE-B does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well-compensated liver disease.

Role of hepatitis D virus infection in development of hepatocellular carcinoma among chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the natural course of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Its role in patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues (NAs) is unclear. We aimed to study the role of hepatitis D in the development of HCC in CHB patients treated with NAs. Altogether, 1349 CHB patients treated with NAs were tested for anti-HDV antibody and RNA. The incidence and risk factors of HCC development were analyzed. Rates of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity were 2.3% and 1.0%, respectively. The annual incidence of HCC was 1.4 per 100 person-years after a follow-up period of over 5409.5 person-years. The strongest factor association with HCC development was liver cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI] 9.98/5.11-19.46, P < 0.001), followed by HDV RNA positivity (HR/ CI 5.73/1.35-24.29, P = 0.02), age > 50 years old (HR/CI 3.64/2.03-6.54, P < 0.001), male gender (HR/CI 2.69/1.29-5.60, P: 0.01), and body mass index (BMI, HR/CI 1.11/1.03-1.18, P = 0.004). The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 7.3% for patients with HDV RNA negativity compared to that of 22.2% for patients with HDV RNA positivity (P = 0.01). In the subgroup of cirrhotic patients, the factors associated with HCC development were HDV RNA positivity (HR/CI 4.45/1.04-19.09, P = 0.04) and BMI (HR/CI 1.11/1.03-1.19, P = 0.01). HDV viremia played a crucial role in HCC development in CHB patients who underwent NA therapy.

Addition of liver stiffness enhances the predictive accuracy of the PAGE-B model for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) and PAGE-B models reliably predict the risk of developing chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIM(S)

To investigate whether the addition of liver stiffness (LS) value, assessed using transient elastography, enhanced the predictive accuracies of these models METHODS: Patients with CHB who started anti-viral therapy (AVT) between 2007 and 2017 were enrolled. The training (Yonsei University Hospital) and validation (seven Korean referral institutes) cohorts contained 1211 and 973 patients, respectively.

RESULTS

Based on multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.051, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.031-1.071), male sex (HR = 2.265, 95% CI = 1.463-3.506), lower platelet count (HR = 0.993, 95% CI = 0.989-0.997) and greater LS values (HR = 1.015, 95% CI = 1.002-1.028) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Thus, we developed a modified PAGE^LS -B model (maximum score 34) that included age, male sex, platelet count and LS value. The integrated area under the curve of the modified PAGE^LS model was greater than those of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models (0.760 vs 0.714 and 0.716, respectively) in the derivation dataset. The cumulative HCC incidence was significantly higher in the high-risk (modified PAGE-B^LS score ≥ 24) group than in the intermediate-risk (modified PAGE^LS -B score 12-24) or low-risk (modified PAGE^LS -B score < 12) group (all P < 0.001). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive accuracies of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models were validated in Korean patients with CHB receiving AVT. However, the modified PAGE^LS -B model featuring the addition of LS value showed higher predictability than the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with advanced liver fibrosis

Surveillance is the only pragmatic approach to improve treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) owing to the fact that it allows detection of the tumor at an early and better curable stage. International liver societies recommend surveillance with biannual abdominal ultrasound (US) for patients with cirrhosis of any etiology because of their high risk of developing HCC. This strategy is considered cost-effective, as surveillance requires an articulated and costly set of interventions, including linkage to care of patients with an early detected tumor. However, as transition to HCC is increasingly being observed in noncirrhotic patients, the majority of which does not reach the threshold of cost effectiveness for screening. The European and Japanese liver societies elected to confine recommendations for HCC screening to noncirrhotic patients with advanced fibrosis due to hepatitis C or hepatitis B only. These latter recommendations, however, are challenged by the increasing number of patients with viral hepatitis in whom HCC risk has been attenuated but not eradicated by successful antiviral therapy. In this set of patients, entry criteria of surveillance need to be refined in the light of the suboptimal diagnostic accuracy of non invasive tests that are employed to identify the ideal candidates for surveillance.

Assessing efficacy of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction scores to prioritise hepatitis B surveillance in the COVID-19 era

OBJECTIVE

An estimated 250 million people worldwide are chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. The novel Sars-cov2 virus continues to spread at an alarming rate, and with guidance at the onset of the pandemic recommending the deferral of HCC surveillance, the implications on liver cancer care are now emerging and highlight the urgent need for reorganisation of services.

METHODS

We analysed how five HCC risk prediction scores could aid stratification of patients with chronic HBV. We calculated scores using parameters measured from 3 years prior (where available, n = 17) and at the time of HCC diagnosis in all adult patients with chronic HBV diagnosed with HCC (n = 46), and controls (n = 100). We compared the number of patients requiring cancer surveillance according to each score and regional surveillance guidance.

RESULTS

The aMAP score had the highest discriminatory performance in HCC risk prediction at 3 years (area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (auROC) of 0.824), followed by the mREACH B score (auROC of 0.719), and mPAGE B score (auROC of 0.742). However, only the mREACH B score had a negative predictive value (NPV) >99%. Applying the mREACH B score to our HBV cohort identified 11 patients requiring HCC surveillance, compared with 62 under current guidelines.

CONCLUSION

The use of HCC risk prediction scores could streamline the surveillance of patients with chronic HBV at a time of extremely limited resources. Overall, the mREACH B score had both a strong discriminatory performance and a high NPV, thus safely identifying low risk patients not requiring surveillance.

Stratification of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Following HCV Eradication or HBV Control

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has dramatically decreased in patients infected with HCV and HBV due to the widespread use of highly effective antiviral agents. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis following HCV clearance of in case of HBV control whatever the stage of fibrosis remains at risk of liver cancer development. Cancer predictors in these virus-free patients include routine parameters estimating coexisting comorbidities, persisting liver inflammation or function impairment, and results of non-invasive tests which can be easily combined into HCC risk scoring systems. The latter enables stratification according to various liver cancer incidences and allocation of patients into low, intermediate or high HCC risk probability groups. All international guidelines endorse lifelong surveillance of these patients using semi-annual ultrasound, with known sensibility issues. Refining HCC prediction in this growing population ultimately will trigger personalized management using more effective surveillance tools such as contrast-enhanced imaging techniques or circulating biomarkers while taking into account cost-effectiveness parameters.

Risk and Risk Score Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients With Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Seroclearance

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can develop among chronic hepatitis B patients after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. However, whether HCC risk after HBsAg seroclearance differs between antiviral therapy (AVT)-induced or spontaneous seroclearance cases and ways to identify at-risk populations remain unclear.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 1,200 adult chronic hepatitis B patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance (median age: 56 years; 824 men; 165 with cirrhosis; 216 AVT-induced cases) were analyzed. The risk of HCC after HBsAg seroclearance and the performance of 6 HCC prediction models were assessed.

RESULTS

During a median of 4.8 years of follow-up (range: 0.5-17.8 years), HCC developed in 23 patients (1.9%). The HCC incidence rate was higher in the AVT-induced cases than that in the spontaneous cases (3.9% vs 0.9% at 5 years). AVT and cirrhosis were independent factors associated with HCC, with HCC incidence rates of 0.5%, 1.2%, 4.0%, and 10.5% at 5 years for spontaneous/no-cirrhosis, AVT-induced/no-cirrhosis, spontaneous/cirrhosis, and AVT-induced/cirrhosis patients, respectively. Among the 6 predictive HCC models tested, Chinese University-HCC score (0.82) showed the highest C-statistics, which was followed by guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promoter mutations and cirrhosis (0.81).

DISCUSSION

AVT-induced HBsAg seroclearance was associated with higher HCC risk, especially for patients with cirrhosis, indicating that they need careful monitoring for HCC risk. The HCC risk models were able to stratify the HCC risk in patients with HBsAg seroclearance.

A male-ABCD algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction in HBsAg carriers

Objective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers shows gender disparity, influenced by underlying liver diseases that display variations in laboratory tests. We aimed to construct a risk-stratified HCC prediction model for HBsAg-positive male adults.

Methods

HBsAg-positive males of 35−69 years old (N=6,153) were included from a multi-center population-based liver cancer screening study. Randomly, three centers were set as training, the other three centers as validation. Within 2 years since initiation, we administrated at least two rounds of HCC screening using B-ultrasonography and α-fetoprotein (AFP). We used logistic regression models to determine potential risk factors, built and examined the operating characteristics of a point-based algorithm for HCC risk prediction.

Results

With 2 years of follow-up, 302 HCC cases were diagnosed. A male-ABCD algorithm was constructed including participant’s age, blood levels of GGT (γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase), counts of platelets, white cells, concentration of DCP (des-γ-carboxy-prothrombin) and AFP, with scores ranging from 0 to 18.3. The area under receiver operating characteristic was 0.91 (0.90−0.93), larger than existing models. At 1.5 points of risk score, 26.10% of the participants in training cohort and 14.94% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk, with sensitivity of identifying HCC remained 100%. At 2.5 points, 46.51% of the participants in training cohort and 33.68% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk with 99.06% and 97.78% of sensitivity, respectively. At 4.5 points, only 20.86% of participants in training cohort and 23.73% in validation cohort were recognized at high risk, with positive prediction value of 22.85% and 12.35%, respectively.

Conclusions

Male-ABCD algorithm identified individual’s risk for HCC occurrence within short term for their HCC precision surveillance.

Validation of risk prediction scores for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir or tenofovir

Several prediction scores for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are available. We validated the predictive accuracy of age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis (AASL), RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). Between 2007 and 2014, 3171 patients were recruited (1645, ETV; 1517, TDF). The predictive accuracy of each prediction score was assessed. The mean age of the study population (1977 men; 1194 women) was 48.8 years. Liver cirrhosis was present in 1040 (32.8%) patients. During follow-up (median, 58.2 months), 280 (8.8%) patients developed HCC; these patients were significantly older; more likely to be male; had significantly higher proportions of liver cirrhosis, hypertension and diabetes; and had significantly higher values for the four risk scores than those who did not develop HCC (all P < .05). Older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.048), male sex (HR = 2.142), liver cirrhosis (HR = 3.144) and prolonged prothrombin time (HR = 2.589) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC (all P < .05), whereas a higher platelet count (HR = 0.996) was independently associated with a decreased risk of HCC (P < .05). The predictive accuracy of AASL score was the highest for 3- and 5-year HCC predictions (areas under the curve [AUCs] = 0.818 and 0.816, respectively), followed by RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores (AUC = 0.780-0.815 and 0.769-0.814, respectively). In conclusion, four HCC prediction scores were assessed in Korean CHB patients treated with ETV or TDF. The AASL score showed the highest predictive accuracy.

[Hepatitis B vaccine and liver cancer]

Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) chronic infection contributes to a high risk of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) development. HBV is a strong cancer inducer, due to natural history of infection, virological characteristics and viral DNA integrations events in host genome. Prolonged infection and high viral loads, particularly frequent in patients infected in childhood, are risk factors of HCC development for patients with HBV chronic infection. A HBV vaccine, based on immunization against the surface protein HBs, showed a strong efficacy to prevent chronic HBV infection. The development of universal neonatal vaccination programmes contributed to the decrease of HBV chronic infection incidence in children of high endemic areas. Although HBs antibodies levels diminished years after vaccination, HBV neonatal vaccination programmes led to a lower incidence of chronic HBV infection among young adults. The decrease of HBV chronic infection incidence was associated to a reduction of HCC incidence in children and young adults from areas with a high prevalence of HBV infection.

Deep learning model for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis on antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Personalised risk prediction of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with liver cirrhosis on potent antiviral therapy is important for targeted screening and individualised intervention. This study aimed to develop and validate a new model for risk prediction of HCC development based on deep learning, and to compare it with previously reported risk models.

METHODS

A novel deep-learning-based model was developed from a cohort of 424 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis on entecavir therapy with 2 residual blocks, including 7 layers of a neural network, and it was validated using an independent external cohort (n = 316). The deep-learning-based model was compared to 6 previously reported models (platelet, age, and gender-hepatitis B score [PAGE-B], Chinese University HCC score [CU-HCC], HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir [HCC-RESCUE], age, diabetes, race, etiology of cirrhosis, sex, and severity HCC score [ADRESS-HCC], modified PAGE-B score [mPAGE], and Toronto HCC risk index [THRI]) using Harrell's concordance (c)-index.

RESULTS

During a median 5.2 yr of follow-up (inter-quartile range 2.8-6.9 yr), 86 patients (20.3%) developed HCC. The deep-learning-based model had a Harrell's c-index of 0.719 in the derivation cohort and 0.782 in the validation cohort. Goodness of fit was confirmed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p >0.05). Moreover, this model in the validation cohort had the highest c-index among the 6 previously reported models: PAGE-B (0.570), CU-HCC (0.548), HCC-RESCUE (0.577), ADRESS-HCC (0.551), mPAGE (0.598), and THRI (0.587) (all p <0.001). The misclassification rate of this model was 23.7% (model accuracy: 76.3%) in the validation group.

CONCLUSIONS

The deep-learning-based model had better performance than the previous models for predicting the HCC risk in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis on potent antivirals.

LAY SUMMARY

For early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma, it is important to maintain regular surveillance. However, there is currently no standard prediction model for risk stratification that can be used to establish a personalised surveillance strategy. We develop and validate a deep-learning-based model that showed better performance than previous models.

A multi-centre study of trends in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk over time during long-term entecavir therapy

The risk of developing hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced by antiviral therapy. Here, we evaluated the chronological trends in HCC development risk starting in 2007, when entecavir reimbursement was first initiated in South Korea. Treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving entecavir 0.5 mg/d were stratified into three groups according to entecavir start time: early (2007-2010), middle (2011-2012) and late (2013-2014) cohorts Among 2442 patients, cumulative probabilities of developing HCC after 1, 3 and 5 years were, respectively, 1.7%, 5.1%, and 8.2% (early cohort; n = 672); 1.5%, 5.1% and 8.9% (middle cohort; n = 757); and 1.2%, 5.3% and 10.6% (late cohort; n = 1013; P > .05 between each pair). Older age, male, positive hepatitis B e antigen, liver cirrhosis, Child-Pugh class B (vs A) and lower platelet count significantly predicted HCC development in univariate analysis (P < .001), whereas entecavir start time (early vs middle vs late cohorts) did not affect the risk of HCC development (P = .457). A multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.041), male gender (aHR = 2.069), liver cirrhosis (aHR = 3.771) and Child-Pugh class B (vs A, aHR = 1.548) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development, whereas higher platelet count was independently associated with a reduced risk of HCC development (aHR = 0.993; all P < .05). In conclusion, the risk of developing HCC among patients receiving entecavir in South Korea has been stable since 2007. To establish more effective HCC surveillance programs, further studies regarding the carcinogenic roles of nonviral factors are required.

Clinical and Molecular Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk becomes increasingly important with recently emerging HCC-predisposing conditions, namely non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cured hepatitis C virus infection. These etiologies are accompanied with a relatively low HCC incidence rate (~1% per year or less), while affecting a large patient population. Hepatitis B virus infection remains a major HCC risk factor, but a majority of the patients are now on antiviral therapy, which substantially lowers, but does not eliminate, HCC risk. Thus, it is critically important to identify a small subset of patients who have elevated likelihood of developing HCC, to optimize the allocation of limited HCC screening resources to those who need it most and enable cost-effective early HCC diagnosis to prolong patient survival. To date, numerous clinical-variable-based HCC risk scores have been developed for specific clinical contexts defined by liver disease etiology, severity, and other factors. In parallel, various molecular features have been reported as potential HCC risk biomarkers, utilizing both tissue and body-fluid specimens. Deep-learning-based risk modeling is an emerging strategy. Although none of them has been widely incorporated in clinical care of liver disease patients yet, some have been undergoing the process of validation and clinical development. In this review, these risk scores and biomarker candidates are overviewed, and strategic issues in their validation and clinical translation are discussed.

Secondary prevention for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B: are all the nucleos(t)ide analogues the same?

Reducing the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is the key ultimate goal set in essentially all treatment guidelines. There has been solid evidence supporting the relationship between serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level and risk of HCC. Antiviral treatment with oral nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) leads to sustained viral suppression and hence is often adopted as the secondary prevention for HCC in CHB patients. The first-generation NA, lamivudine, reduced the risk of HCC at 3 years compared to placebo; yet, its high emergence of antiviral resistance has made it no longer recommended in the international guidelines. Recent heated debate is about the two current first-line NAs-entecavir and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-Are they just as good to reduce HCC risk in CHB patients? A handful of cohort studies show two different kinds of observations-TDF is better than entecavir in lowering HCC risk, or these two NAs have led to similarly low risk of HCC. Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), a modified version of TDF higher rate of ALT normalization, would be another potent nucleotide analogue is the treatment of choice for secondary prevention for HCC.

GRK2 Suppresses Hepatocellular Carcinoma Metastasis and Invasion Through Down-Regulation of Prostaglandin E Receptor 2

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive form of human liver cancer and the fifth most common malignancy worldwide. Novel effective treatment strategies for HCC are urgently in clinical because of its poor response to conventional therapies. G protein-coupled receptor kinases (GRKs), including GRK2 and GRK3, are known that involves in various essential cellular processes and regulates numerous signaling pathways. However, the role of GRK2/3 in invasion and metastasis of HCC still remains unclear.

Materials and Methods

Immunohistochemistry, Western blot, laser confocal microscopy and qRT-PCR were used to detect the expression of GRK2/3 and EP2 in liver tissues of HCC patients and DEN-induced HCC mice. Wound healing and transwell assay were applied to measure the migration and invasion of HCC cells after transfected with GRK2 siRNA. The downstream pathway of Akt and ERK was verified by Western blot.

Results

The expression of GRK2 was significantly decreased, while GRK3 was not significantly changed in HCC tissues compared with noncancerous tissues of HCC patients. Moreover, GRK2 expression was reduced during liver tumorigenesis in diethylnitrosamine-induced liver tumor model. In addition, our in vitro study showed that GRK2 expression was gradually decreased with increasing HCC cell line metastatic potential, and GRK2 knockdown significantly promoted the migration and invasion of HCC cells. Furthermore, low GRK2 expression was associated with increased expression of EP2 receptor translocation to HCC cell membrane, and the activation of Akt pathway.

Conclusion

These data suggest that GRK2 inhibits HCC metastasis and invasion may be through regulating EP2 receptor translocation, and this effect appears to be mediated by Akt pathway.

Subcentimeter hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naïve patients: noninvasive diagnostic criteria and tumor staging on gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI

OBJECTIVE

It is controversial to adopt non-invasive diagnostic criteria of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in subcentimeter lesions. This study was aimed to define the optimal noninvasive diagnostic criteria of subcentimeter HCC and to evaluate the effect on tumor staging.

METHODS

We included 110 treatment-naïve patients at risk of HCC and eligible for curative treatment who had subcentimeter lesions (n = 136) on gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) performed between January 2013 and December 2013. Modified diagnostic criteria for subcentimeter HCC were developed using logistic regression analysis. Accuracies of MR staging with and without using the modified criteria were compared by generalized estimating equation test using pathologic staging as reference standards. Subgroup analysis was performed for patients with co-existing HCC ≥ 1 cm (co-HCC).

RESULTS

The modified criteria (presence of co-HCC, arterial phase hyperenhancement, and hypointensity on transitional phase [TP]) showed 61.5% (95% CI, 41.6-78.2) of sensitivity and 98.2% (95% CI, 93.0-99.5) of specificity. Including subcentimeter HCCs improved the accuracy of MR staging from 84.5 to 94.5% (p = 0.001). Fifty percent of subcentimeter lesions found in patients with co-HCCs were HCC, whereas 5.9% of them without co-HCCs were HCC (p = 0.001). In the subgroup with co-HCCs, the accuracy of MR staging with subcentimeter HCCs was improved from 69.0% to 92.8% (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Including subcentimeter HCCs based on the modified diagnostic criteria (co-existing HCC ≥ 1 cm, arterial phase hyperenhancement, and hypointensity on TP) improved MR staging accuracy.

KEY POINTS

• Fifty percent of non-benign appearing subcentimeter lesions found in patients with co-HCCs were HCC, whereas 5.9% of them without co-HCCs were HCC (p = 0.001). • Including subcentimeter HCCs improved the accuracy of MR staging from 84.5 to 94.5% (p = 0.001).

Predictive score for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis B e antigen loss in patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir

The risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatitis B e antigen seroclearance (ESC) remains unclear. We established and validated a new risk prediction model for HCC development after ESC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). Between 2006 and 2016, 769 patients (training cohort) and 1,061 patients (validation cohort) with CHB who experienced ESC during AVT using entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were recruited. In the multivariate analysis, male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.092; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.152-3.800), cirrhosis (HR = 5.141; 95% CI = 2.367-11.167) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) of >3.25 (HR = 2.070; 95% CI = 1.184-3.620) were the independent risk factors for HCC development (all P < .05). Accordingly, a novel HCC-ESC_AVT model was developed (1x[sex: male = 1, female = 0] + 3x(cirrhosis = 1, noncirrhosis = 0) + 1x(FIB-4: >3.25 = 1, ≤3.25 = 0). The cumulative risk for HCC development was significantly different among the risk groups based on the HCC-ESC_AVT category (0-1, 2-4 and 5 for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively) (overall P < .001, log-rank test). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting HCC development 3, 5 and 10 years after ESC was 0.791, 0.771 and 0.790, respectively (all P < .05). The predictive value of the HCC-ESC_AVT model was similar in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.802, 0.774 and 0.776 at 3, 5 and 10 years, respectively; all P < .05). Hence, we have developed and validated a new HCC-ESC_AVT model for HCC development, which includes male sex, cirrhosis and FIB-4 of >3.25 as constituent variables.

Magnitude of and prediction for risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B taking entecavir or tenofovir therapy: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) have been shown to reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This systematic review aims to evaluate the magnitude, change over time, and prediction of residual HCC risks in CHB patients treated with ETV/TDF therapy.

METHODS

Available literature was systematically reviewed through searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from January 1, 2006 to September 1, 2019, to identify cohort studies that reported HCC incidence in CHB patients during ETV/TDF therapy. Studies were screened by title and abstract and then evaluated for eligibility in terms of full text.

RESULTS

We identified 141 studies for full-text review, and 34 were eligible for analysis. From 19 studies with data separated by cirrhosis status, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5-6.9% in patients without cirrhosis, 4.5-21.6% in compensated cirrhosis, and 36.3-46.5% in decompensated cirrhosis. All four studies that addressed temporal changes in HCC risks consistently found the incidence rate decreased over time in patients with cirrhosis, although the findings were inconsistent in patients without cirrhosis. Six predictive scores were developed and validated to predict incident HCC during ETV/TDF therapy in CHB patients. Common scoring variables included age, sex, cirrhosis (fibrosis grade), and hepatic function. Conflicting results were reported in seven individual studies and two meta-analyses that compared ETV versus TDF.

CONCLUSIONS

The residual risk of HCC remains during ETV/TDF treatment in CHB patients with cirrhosis but declines over time. Risk stratification is attainable by validated predictive scores.

Novel Calculators for Risk Stratification in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Concise Review

Among clinicians, the users of medical calculators have expanded in recent years to an unprecedented number. The usefulness of some of these calculators is sometimes debatable, and experienced professionals may at times be right in avoiding their use; however, many may simply be unaware of the very existence of medical calculators applicable to their field of interest. The authors felt that this latter scenario might possibly apply to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hence, the authors concisely reviewed 10 free online medical calculators proposed in the last 8 years, categorizing them on the basis of the purpose for which they were developed (risk of harboring or developing HCC, N=4; prognostication in established HCC, N=6). In addition, the authors tried to establish the success each calculator has had so far in the medical community, by 2 criteria: having been included in the more popular app of medical calculators and being highly cited in the scientific literature.

Real-World Effectiveness From the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV Risk Score for the Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated With Oral Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

Patients on oral antiviral (OAV) therapy remain at hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. Risk prediction tools distinguishing treated patients with residual HCC risk are limited. The aim of this study was to develop an accurate, precise, simple-to-use HCC risk score using routine clinical variables among a treated Asian cohort.

METHODS

Adult Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients on OAV were recruited from 25 centers in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. Excluded persons were coinfected with hepatitis C, D, or human immunodeficiency virus, had HCC before or within 1 year of study entry, or their follow-up was <1 year. Patients were randomized to derivation and validation cohorts on a 2:1 ratio. Statistically significant predictors from multivariate modeling formed the Real-world Effectiveness from the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV (REAL-B) score.

RESULTS

A total of 8048 patients were randomized to the derivation (n = 5365) or validation group (n = 2683). The REAL-B model included 7 variables (male gender, age, alcohol use, diabetes, baseline cirrhosis, platelet count, and alpha fetoprotein), and scores were categorized as follows: 0-3 low risk, 4-7 moderate risk, and 8-13 high risk. Area under receiver operating characteristics were >0.80 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, and these were significantly higher than other risk models (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The REAL-B score provides 3 distinct risk categories for HCC development in Asian CHB patients on OAV guiding HCC surveillance strategy.

Validation of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in Japanese chronic hepatitis B cohort receiving nucleot(s)ide analog

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development during nucleotide/nucleoside analog (NA) therapy is clinically important in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Although several useful models for HCC prediction have been previously reported, their usefulness in the Japanese population is unclear. Therefore, this study examines the applicability of these models in Japanese patients.

METHODS

Four hundred forty-three patients with no history of HCC who were treated with entecavir, tenofovir alafenamide, or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were enrolled. PAGE-B, modified-PAGE-B, and REACH-B scores were calculated, and subsequent HCC development was investigated.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up duration was 5.1 years, and a total of 33 patients (7.4%) developed HCC during the follow-up period. Multivariate analysis revealed that old age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.09, P = 0.011), male gender (HR 2.62, 95% CI 1.06-6.49, P = 0.037), and low platelet count (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.91, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of HCC development. These factors are the same as the factors identified in the PAGE-B model. Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve revealed that the AUROCs for 3 and 7 years of PAGE-B (AUROC: 0.786 and 0.744 at 3 and 7 years, respectively) were continuously higher than those of REACH-B (0.658 and 0.543) and modified PAGE-B AUROC (0.772 and 0.731).

CONCLUSIONS

PAGE-B, which can easily identify high-risk cases, can be useful for predicting HCC development in Japanese patients treated with NA therapy.

Detectable HBV DNA during nucleos(t)ide analogues stratifies predictive hepatocellular carcinoma risk score

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NA) suppress hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, NA cannot suppress carcinogenesis completely in patients with chronic hepatitis B. The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for HCC and develop a refined carcinogenesis prediction model. Patients receiving NA therapy (n = 1,183) were recruited retrospectively from the 16 hospitals. All patients had been receiving NA continuously for more than 1 year until the end of the follow-up. During a median follow-up of 4.9 (1.0–12.9) years, 52 (4.4%) patients developed HCC. A multivariate analysis revealed that male gender, older age, lower platelet counts at the baseline, and detectable HBV DNA during NA therapy were independent predictive factors of HCC development. The PAGE-B score was calculated by using these factors. 240 (20.3%), 661 (55.9%), and 282 (23.8%) patients were classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. In the intermediate- and high-risk group, detectable HBV DNA was significantly associated with a higher risk of HCC development compared with continuously undetectable HBV DNA, respectively (HR 3.338; 95% CI 1.045–10.66/HR 3.191; 95% CI 1.543–6.597). PAGE-B–DNA, which is the combined PAGE-B and HBV DNA status, was valuable for a more refined stratification of PAGE-B.

An optimized hepatocellular carcinoma prediction model for chronic hepatitis B with well-controlled viremia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) substantially decreased in the era of potent antiviral therapy. We developed an optimized HCC risk prediction model for CHB with well-controlled viremia by nucelos(t)ide analogs (NUCs).

METHOD

We analysed those who achieved virological response (VR; serum HBV-DNA < 2000 IU/mL on two consecutive assessments) by NUCs. Liver stiffness by transient elastography, ultrasonography and laboratory tests was performed at the time of confirmed VR. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at baseline were excluded. Multivariate Cox-regression analysis was used to determine key variables to construct a novel risk-scoring model.

RESULTS

Among 1511 patients, 9.5% developed HCC. Cirrhosis on ultrasonography (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.47), age (aHR 1.04), male (aHR 1.90), platelet count <135 000/uL (aHR 1.57), albumin <4.5 g/dL (aHR 1.77) and liver stiffness ≥11 kPa (aHR 6.09) were independently associated with HCC. Using these, CAMPAS model was developed with c-index of 0.874. The predicted and observed HCC probabilities were calibrated with a reliable agreement. Such results were reproduced from internal validation and external validation among the independent cohort (n = 252). The intermediate-risk (CAMPAS model score 75 ~ 161) and high-risk (score >161) groups were more likely to develop HCC compared with the low-risk group (score ≤75) with statistical significances (HRs; 4.43 and 47.693 respectively; both P < .001).

CONCLUSION

CAMPAS model derived through comprehensive clinical evaluation of liver disease allowed the more delicate HCC prediction for CHB patients with well-controlled viremia by NUCs.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in HIV-Infected Patients: Current Evidence and Controversies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review aims to summarize evidence regarding hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in the specific context of HIV infection and discuss areas of uncertainty.

RECENT FINDINGS

It has not been definitely established if HCC incidence in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with cirrhosis is above the 1.5%/year threshold that makes screening cost-effective. Outside cirrhosis or HBV infection, available data do not support surveillance. The performance of currently recommended ultrasound (US) screening strategy is poor in HIV-infected patients, as rates of early-stage HCC detection are low. Magnetic resonance imaging-based surveillance strategies or liquid biopsy are innovative approaches that should be specifically tested in this setting. HIV-infected patients with cirrhosis are at risk of HCC. US surveillance identifies patients with early-stage HCC who will benefit of curative therapies, although the quality of the evidence supporting screening remains limited. The HIV population should be a priority group to assess and validate new surveillance strategies.

Oxidative Stress Management in Chronic Liver Diseases and Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Chronic viral hepatitis B and C and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have been widely acknowledged to be the leading causes of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. As anti-viral treatment progresses, the impact of NAFLD is increasing. NAFLD can coexist with chronic viral hepatitis and exacerbate its progression. Oxidative stress has been recognized as a chronic liver disease progression-related and cancer-initiating stress response. However, there are still many unresolved issues concerning oxidative stress, such as the correlation between the natural history of the disease and promising treatment protocols. Recent findings indicate that oxidative stress is also an anti-cancer response that is necessary to kill cancer cells. Oxidative stress might therefore be a cancer-initiating response that should be down regulated in the pre-cancerous stage in patients with risk factors for cancer, while it is an anti-cancer cell response that should not be down regulated in the post-cancerous stage, especially in patients using anti-cancer agents. Antioxidant nutrients should be administered carefully according to the patients’ disease status. In this review, we will highlight these paradoxical effects of oxidative stress in chronic liver diseases, pre- and post-carcinogenesis.

Reassessing the accuracy of PAGE-B-related scores to predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores were developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients on nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. However, how and when to use these risk scores in clinical practice is uncertain.

METHODS

Consecutive adult patients with chronic hepatitis B who had received entecavir or tenofovir for at least 6 months between January 2005 and June 2018 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The performance of PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores for HCC prediction at 5 years was assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and different cut-off values of these 2 scores were evaluated by survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of 32,150 identified patients with chronic hepatitis B, 20,868 (64.9%) were male. Their mean age was 53.0 ± 13.2 years. At a median (IQR) follow-up of 3.9 (1.8-5.0) years, 1,532 (4.8%) patients developed HCC. The AUROCs (95% CI) for the prediction of HCC at 5 years were 0.77 (0.76-0.78) and 0.80 (0.79-0.81), with PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores, respectively (p <0.001). A total of 9,417 (29.3%) patients were classified as having a low HCC risk by either PAGE-B or mPAGE-B scores; their 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.6% (0.4%-0.8%). This classification achieved a negative predictive value of 99.5% (99.4%-99.7%) to exclude patients without HCC development at 5 years. The AUROCs for the prediction of HCC with PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were similar at baseline and after 2 years on treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores can be applied to identify patients on antiviral therapy who are at low risk of developing HCC. These patients could be exempted from HCC surveillance due to their very low HCC risk.

LAY SUMMARY

Risk scores have been developed to predict the likelihood of patients with chronic hepatitis B developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the role of 2 such scores, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B, in predicting the risk of HCC in 32,150 nucleos(t)ide analogue-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. These scores identified a group of patients at very low risk of developing HCC who could therefore be exempted from HCC surveillance.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma beyond year 5 of entecavir therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients

BACKGROUND

PURPOSE: The study compared the incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within and beyond year 5 of entecavir (ETV) therapy.

METHODS

The study enrolled 1397 CHB patients who were naïve to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) treatment and had received ETV monotherapy for more than 12 months.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidences of HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years of ETV treatment were 4%, 9.1%, and 15.8%, respectively. In the entire cohort, the annual incidence rates of HCC were 2.28% within the first 5 years and 1.34% within 5-10 years of therapy. The incidences of HCC did not differ significantly within and beyond 5 years of ETV therapy (p = 0.53), including patients with cirrhosis (p = 0.85) and without cirrhosis (p = 0.47). At year 5 of treatment, the multivariate analysis showed that the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were independent risk factors for HCC development beyond year 5. The 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC beyond year 5 in the high-risk group (FIB-4 > 2.20 and AFP > 3.21 ng/mL) and low-risk group (FIB-4 ≤ 2.20 and AFP ≤ 3.21 ng/mL) were 48.7% and 0%, respectively. APA-B score at 12 months and year 5 had a higher C-index for the prediction of HCC beyond year 5 than the PAGE-B at baseline and year 5 (p = 0.003 and p = 0.039, respectively) CONCLUSIONS: The HCC incidence tended to decrease but did not change significantly within and beyond 5 years of ETV therapy. The FIB-4 index and AFP levels at year 5 were predictive of HCC development beyond year 5 of ETV therapy.

Predictors for the progression of hepatic cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma under long-term antiviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

Patients diagnosed with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatic cirrhosis have the potential for progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even while undergoing long-term nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) therapy. This study investigated the predictors for the progression of hepatic cirrhosis to HCC under long-term NA therapy.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 898 patients diagnosed with HBV-related hepatic cirrhosis. They received NA therapy between January 2012 and January 2015. The values for the liver stiffness measurement (LSM), laboratory tests, and disease history were collected. The diagnostic specificity of the serum, was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The overall 2- and 3-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 6.8% and 15.15%, respectively. The LSM values were higher in the patients who had progressed to HCC. The serum PIVKA-II levels were more efficient than the serum AFP levels for the diagnosis of early HCC as the larger area under curve (0.866 vs. 0.687). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HCC occurrence was significantly associated with the baseline LSM value (odds ratio = 1.035). At the end of the study, the death rate for the patients with larger LSM values was higher than that for those with lower LSM values (67.88% vs. 39.90%).

CONCLUSION

Patients with HBV-related cirrhosis have the potential for progression to HCC even under long-term NA therapy. The LSM value and the serum PIVKA-II level are significant predictors of HCC occurrence.

Fibrosis-4, aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio for risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients: comparison with liver biopsy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is well known that hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) develops as a consequence of hepatic fibrosis progression. Thus, early identification of advanced liver fibrosis is very important. This study evaluated the prognostic value of FIB-4, the aspartate transaminase to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and the gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-toplatelet ratio (GPR) for predicting HCC development using histological fibrosis stage as a reference in Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.

METHODS

A total of 444 CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy and serological tests for determining noninvasive serum fibrosis markers were enrolled. All patients were followed to monitor HCC development.

RESULTS

The histological fibrosis stage showed best performance in predicting HCC development at 5 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.783) and 7 years (AUROC = 0.766), followed by FIB-4 (AUROC = 0.753 at 5 years, 0.698 at 7 years), APRI (AUROC = 0.658 at 5 years, 0.572 at 7 years), and GPR (AUROC = 0.638 at 5 years, 0.603 at 7 years). When we classified risk groups according to the histological fibrosis stage (F4 vs. F0-3) and FIB-4 (FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 vs. FIB-4 < 3.25), patients in the high-risk group were found to have a significantly higher probability of developing HCC than those in the low-risk group (P=0.005 and 0.022, respectively, log-rank test).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that FIB-4 is useful for the noninvasive prediction of HCC development, while APRI and GPR were less useful.

Clinical utility of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Several risk scores have been recently developed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We systematically assessed the performance of the available HCC risk scores.

METHODS

Literature search was performed to identify all published studies reporting development or external validation of HCC risk scores in CHB patients.

RESULTS

Until March 2019, 12 scores were developed in untreated Asian and 7 scores in treated Asian (n = 6) or Caucasian (n = 1) patients. All scores provided significant predictions for HCC development in the derivation and validation cohorts of their original studies (c-statistic: 0.76-0.95) and usually classified patients into low, medium and high HCC risk groups. Eleven independent studies and three studies developing their own scores have validated externally some scores in Asian (GAG-HCC:5, CU-HCC:6, REACH-B:6, REACH-Bm:4, LSM-HCC:3, PAGE-B:5) or Caucasian/mixed origin patients (GAG-HCC:4, CU-HCC:4, REACH-B:4, PAGE-B:2). All scores offered acceptable predictability in almost all independent Asian cohorts (c-statistic: 0.70-0.86), but only PAGE-B and recently modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) offered good predictability in all independent Caucasian and/or Asian cohorts. Negative predictive values for 5-year HCC prediction were ≤99% (95%-99%) in most independent cohorts assessing Asian risk scores and 99%-100% in all independent cohorts (Caucasian/mixed origin:2; Asian:3) assessing PAGE-B and/or recently mPAGE-B.

CONCLUSIONS

Direct comparison of the newest HCC risk scores in independent patient cohorts of different origin remains intriguing, although statistical associations may not be directly transferable to clinical practice. PAGE-B and recently mPAGE-B score seem to offer persistently high predictability for Caucasian and/or Asian treated patients with low HCC risk who require no surveillance.

Validation of the CAMD Score in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection Receiving Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Researchers previously developed a scoring system to determine the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, based on the presence of cirrhosis, patient age, male sex, and diabetes (called the CAMD scoring system). We validated the CAMD scoring system and compared its performance with that of other risk assessment models in an independent cohort.

METHODS

We followed up 3277 patients with chronic HBV infection (mean age, 48.7 y; 62.6% male; 32.4% with cirrhosis) who were treated with entecavir (n = 1725) or tenofovir (n = 1552) as the first-line antiviral agent in 4 academic teaching hospitals in the Republic of Korea. The primary outcome was development of HCC. We evaluated the ability of the CAMD, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B scoring systems to identify patients who would develop HCC using integrated area under the curve (iAUC) analysis.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 58.2 months, 8.9% of the patients developed HCC. Patients who developed HCC were older, more likely to be male, and had higher proportions of cirrhosis and diabetes than patients who did not develop HCC (all P < .05). CAMD scores identified patients who developed HCC with an iAUC of 0.790, mPAGE-B scores with an iAUC of 0.769, and PAGE-B scores with an iAUC of 0.760. The 5-year cumulative risks of HCC were 1.3% in patients with low CAMD scores (<8), 8.0% in patients with intermediate CAMD scores (8-13), and 24.3% in patients with high CAMD scores (>13) (P < .001 for comparison of low- vs intermediate-score groups and between intermediate- vs high-score groups). The predicted and observed probabilities of HCC had excellent agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

We validated the CAMD scoring system in determining the risk of HCC in patients with chronic HBV treatment receiving entecavir or tenofovir treatment. Validation was performed in a cohort of patients in the Republic of Korea, where most patients have genotype C2 HBV infection.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Steadily Persists over Time Despite Long-Term Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Long-term antiviral therapy (AVT) for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reduces the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We assessed the temporal trends in the incidence of HCC over time during long-term AVT among Asian patients with CHB.

METHODS

Patients with CHB receiving entecavir/tenofovir (ETV/TDF) as a first-line antiviral were recruited from four academic hospitals in the Republic of Korea. We compared the incidence of HCC during and after the first 5 years of ETV/TDF treatment.

RESULTS

Among 3,156 patients, the median age was 49.6 years and males predominated (62.4%). During the follow-up, 9.0% developed HCC. The annual incidence of HCC per 100 person-years during the first 5 years (n = 1,671) and after the first 5 years (n = 1,485) was statistically similar (1.93% vs. 2.27%, P = 0.347). When the study population was stratified according to HCC prediction model, that is, modified PAGE-B score, the annual incidence of HCC was 0.11% versus 0.39% in the low-risk group (<8 points), 1.26% versus 1.82% in the intermediate-risk group (9-12 points), and 4.63% versus 5.24% in the high-risk group (≥13 points; all P > 0.05). A Poisson regression analysis indicated that the duration of AVT did not significantly affect the overall trend of the incidence of HCC (adjusted annual incidence rate ratio = 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.11; P = 0.232).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite long-term AVT, the risk of HCC steadily persists over time among patients with CHB in the Republic of Korea, in whom HBV genotype C2 predominates.

IMPACT

Careful HCC surveillance is still essential.

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate reduces hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensation and death in chronic hepatitis B patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Lamivudine and entecavir reduce hepatic events and death in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with cirrhosis, but the impact of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is less well studied.

AIM

To investigate the effectiveness of TDF therapy in CHB patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We studied TDF-treated and untreated CHB patients with cirrhosis from three tertiary centres. TDF cohort included consecutive patients who received TDF for ≥12 months while the untreated cohort were historical controls receiving routine clinical care prior to the availability of anti-viral therapy. The primary outcome was 5-year cumulative probability of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with secondary outcomes being hepatic decompensation and death or liver transplantation (LT).

RESULTS

A total of 1088 (291 untreated and 797 TDF-treated) patients were included in the study. Five-year cumulative probabilities in untreated vs TDF-treated cohorts were 14.9% vs 9.8% for HCC (P = .07), 22.3% vs 5.9% for decompensation (P < .01) and 13.1% vs 1.1% for death or LT (P < .01) respectively. On multivariable Cox regression, TDF treatment was independently associated with reduced risks of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.46, P < .01), decompensating events (aHR 0.28, P = .01) and death or LT (aHR 0.06, P < .01). On sensitivity analyses, these risk reductions with TDF treatment were consistently demonstrated regardless of severity of liver disease and prior anti-viral treatment. TDF treatment led to sustained improvements in most validated prognostic scores for predicting HCC, decompensation and death.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to untreated patients, TDF treatment reduces the risks of HCC, hepatic decompensation and death in CHB patients with cirrhosis at 5 years.

A liquid biopsy assay for identifying early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in asymptomatic HBsAg-seropositive individuals

Biannual screening of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by ultrasonography and serum α-fetoprotein has been proposed to the HBsAg-seropositive individuals. The widespread application to all of them was restricted due to limited acceptability of resource and anxiety-producing procedures. We recently developed a novel liquid biopsy assay to identify HCC cases in asymptomatic HBsAg-positive individuals.