Molecular epidemiology of HIV among people who inject drugs after the HIV-outbreak in Athens, Greece: Evidence for a 'slow burn' outbreak

BACKGROUND

New diagnoses of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece, saw a significant increase in 2011 and a subsequent decline after 2013. Despite this, ongoing HIV-1 transmission persisted from 2014 to 2020 within this population. Our objective was to estimate the time of infection for PWID in Athens following the HIV-1 outbreak, explore the patterns of HIV-1 dispersal over time, and determine the duration from infection to diagnosis.

METHODS

Time from HIV-1 infection to diagnosis was estimated for 844 individuals infected within 4 PWID-specific clusters and for 8 PWID infected with sub-subtype A6 diagnosed during 2010-2019. Phylogeny reconstruction was performed using the maximum-likelihood method. HIV-1 infection dates were based on molecular clock calculations.

RESULTS

In total 86 of 92 (93.5%) sequences from PWID diagnosed during 2016-2019 were either related to the previously identified PWID-specific clusters (n = 81) or belonged to a new A6 cluster (n = 5). The median time between infection and diagnosis was 0.42 years during the outbreak period and 0.70 years during 2016-2019 (p < 0.001). The proportion of clustered sequences from PWID was very low at 5.3% during the pre-outbreak period (1998-2009), saw an increase to 41.7% one year before the outbreak in 2010, and consistently remained high during the whole period after 2011, spanning the post-outbreak period (2016-2019) with a range from 92.9% to 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

The substantial proportion of clustered infections (93.5%) during 2016-2019 implies a persistent 'slow burn' HIV outbreak among PWID in Athens, suggesting that the outbreak was not successfully eliminated. The consistently high proportion of clustered sequences since the onset of the outbreak suggests the persistence of ongoing HIV-1 transmission attributed to injection practices. Our findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions among PWID, considering the ongoing transmission rate and prolonged time from infection to diagnosis.

High levels of all-cause mortality among people who inject drugs from 2018 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Mortality among people who inject drugs (PWID) is high, with overdose and HIV infection being the main causes of death. In Greece, there have been no data on mortality, and two HIV outbreaks have been recorded in this population in the past decade. In this study, we aim to estimate the all-cause crude mortality rate and the standardised mortality ratio in this population during 2018-2022.

METHODS

PWID recruited from two community-based programs in Athens and Thessaloniki during 2018-2021 were interviewed and tested for HIV/HCV. Data on vital status (deceased/alive) and date of death were obtained from death registries through December 31, 2022. All-cause crude mortality rates (CMR) and standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were estimated. Determinants of mortality were assessed using Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

Of 2,530 participants, 301 died over 8,543 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. The CMR (95 % CI) was 3.52 (3.15-3.94) deaths per 100 PYs; 3.10 per 100 PYs (2.68-3.58) in Athens and 4.48 per 100 PYs (3.74-5.37) in Thessaloniki. An increasing trend in CMR was identified over 2018-2022 in Athens (from 2.90 to 4.11 per 100 PYs, 41.5 % increase, p = 0.018). The pooled SMR (95 % CI) was 15.86 (14.17-17.76) for both cities and was particularly increased in younger individuals, females, those injecting daily, not enrolled to opioid agonist treatment and HIV-infected individuals. Older age, living in Thessaloniki, Greek origin, homelessness, history of injection in the past 12 months, and HIV infection were independently associated with higher risk of death.

CONCLUSION

Mortality among PWID in the two largest cities (Athens and Thessaloniki) in Greece in 2018-2022 was high, with the population in Thessaloniki being particularly affected. The increasing trend in mortality in Athens may reflect the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Preventive programs such as take-home naloxone, screening and treatment for HIV, are urgently needed.

PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recent studies reported that moderate HBV DNA levels are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to develop and validate a new risk score to predict HCC development using baseline moderate HBV DNA levels in patients entering into HBeAg-positive CHB from chronic infection.

METHODS

This multicenter cohort study recruited 3,585 HBeAg-positive, non-cirrhotic patients who started antiviral treatment with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at phase change into CHB from chronic infection in 23 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals of South Korea (2012-2020). A new HCC risk score (PAGED-B) was developed (training cohort, n = 2,367) based on multivariable Cox models. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation (validation cohort, n = 1,218) were performed.

RESULTS

Sixty (1.7%) patients developed HCC (median follow-up, 5.4 years). In the training cohort, age, gender, platelets, diabetes and moderate HBV DNA levels (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/ml) were independently associated with HCC development; the PAGED-B score (based on these five predictors) showed a time-dependent AUROC of 0.81 for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years. In the validation cohort, the AUROC of PAGED-B was 0.85, significantly higher than for other risk scores (PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD, and REAL-B). When stratified by the PAGED-B score, the HCC risk was significantly higher in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients (sub-distribution hazard ratio = 8.43 in the training and 11.59 in the validation cohorts, all p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The newly established PAGED-B score may enable risk stratification for HCC at the time of transition into HBeAg-positive CHB.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

In this study, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients entering into hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from chronic infection. The newly established PAGED-B score, which included baseline moderate HBV DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml), improved on the predictive performance of prior risk scores. Based on a patient's age, gender, diabetic status, platelet count, and moderate DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml) at the phase change into CHB from chronic infection, the PAGED-B score represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first 5 years of antiviral treatment in HBeAg-positive patients entering into CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 12 points, the PAGED-B score significantly differentiated the 5-year HCC risk: low <7 points and high ≥7 points.

Depression in medical students during the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a mental health crisis. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of depression in medical students in Greece during a nationwide lockdown. The secondary aims were to assess the association of depression with socio-demographic factors and students' attitudes regarding the quality of their studies. The data was gathered anonymously through a self-administered online questionnaire between January 11 and 27, 2021. The CES-D scale was used to measure depression rates. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with depression. Analyses were conducted using Stata version 16.0 and the IBM® SPSS® software. In total, 978 sixth- and fifth-year medical students participated; their mean age was 23.2 years and 65.6% were females. The prevalence of clinical depression was 21.3% (95% CI: 18.7%, 24.0%), whereas 17.9% (95% CI: 15.5%, 20.4%) experienced severe distress. Depression was more prevalent in females (25.4% vs 13.1% in males, p<0.001). Approximately half (53.4%) of the participants reported a change in plans regarding their medical career due to the pandemic and 16.9% expressed a decreased willingness to practice medicine. Factors independently associated with depression were female gender, living alone or with housemates at high risk for COVID-19, being anxious about becoming infected with SARS-CoV-2, studying in one of the three largest medical schools, negatively evaluating the adjustment of the teaching personnel to online teaching and the university's response to the pandemic. The findings of this study report depression in one out of five medical students during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need to protect the most vulnerable medical students during a pandemic. Medical students must be able to seek professional mental health services, even in the era of a pandemic. Universities should increase accessibility to support services and provide a student-centered approach in their strategies, as the pandemic has placed a spotlight on an existing phenomenon.

Incarceration history is associated with HIV infection among community-recruited people who inject drugs in Europe: A propensity-score matched analysis of cross-sectional studies

AIMS

We measured the association between a history of incarceration and HIV positivity among people who inject drugs (PWID) across Europe.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a cross-sectional, multi-site, multi-year propensity-score matched analysis conducted in Europe. Participants comprised community-recruited PWID who reported a recent injection (within the last 12 months).

MEASUREMENTS

Data on incarceration history, demographics, substance use, sexual behavior and harm reduction service use originated from cross-sectional studies among PWID in Europe. Our primary outcome was HIV status. Generalized linear mixed models and propensity-score matching were used to compare HIV status between ever- and never-incarcerated PWID.

FINDINGS

Among 43 807 PWID from 82 studies surveyed (in 22 sites and 13 countries), 58.7% reported having ever been in prison and 7.16% (n = 3099) tested HIV-positive. Incarceration was associated with 30% higher odds of HIV infection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09-1.59]; the association between a history of incarceration and HIV infection was strongest among PWID, with the lowest estimated propensity-score for having a history of incarceration (aOR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.47-2.16). Additionally, mainly injecting cocaine and/or opioids (aOR = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.33-3.53), increased duration of injecting drugs (per 8 years aOR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.16-1.48), ever sharing needles/syringes (aOR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.59-2.28) and increased income inequality among the general population (measured by the Gini index, aOR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.18-1.51) were associated with a higher odds of HIV infection. Older age (per 8 years aOR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.76-0.94), male sex (aOR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.65-0.91) and reporting pharmacies as the main source of clean syringes (aOR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.59-0.88) were associated with lower odds of HIV positivity.

CONCLUSIONS

A history of incarceration appears to be independently associated with HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Europe, with a stronger effect among PWID with lower probability of incarceration.

Global prevalence, cascade of care, and prophylaxis coverage of hepatitis B in 2022: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The 2016 World Health Assembly endorsed the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection as a public health threat by 2030; existing therapies and prophylaxis measures make such elimination feasible, even in the absence of a virological cure. We aimed to estimate the national, regional, and global prevalence of HBV in the general population and among children aged 5 years and younger, as well as the rates of diagnosis, treatment, prophylaxis, and the future burden globally.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we used a Delphi process with data from literature reviews and interviews with country experts to quantify the prevalence, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention measures for HBV infection. The PRoGReSs Model, a dynamic Markov model, was used to estimate the country, regional, and global prevalence of HBV infection in 2022, and the effects of treatment and prevention on disease burden. The future incidence of morbidity and mortality in the absence of additional interventions was also estimated at the global level.

FINDINGS

We developed models for 170 countries which resulted in an estimated global prevalence of HBV infection in 2022 of 3·2% (95% uncertainty interval 2·7-4·0), corresponding to 257·5 million (216·6-316·4) individuals positive for HBsAg. Of these individuals, 36·0 million were diagnosed, and only 6·8 million of the estimated 83·3 million eligible for treatment were on treatment. The prevalence among children aged 5 years or younger was estimated to be 0·7% (0·6-1·0), corresponding to 5·6 million (4·5-7·8) children with HBV infection. Based on the most recent data, 85% of infants received three-dose HBV vaccination before 1 year of age, 46% had received a timely birth dose of vaccine, and 14% received hepatitis B immunoglobulin along with the full vaccination regimen. 3% of mothers with a high HBV viral load received antiviral treatment to reduce mother-to-child transmission.

INTERPRETATION

As 2030 approaches, the elimination targets remain out of reach for many countries under the current frameworks. Although prevention measures have had the most success, there is a need to increase these efforts and to increase diagnosis and treatment to work towards the elimination goals.

FUNDING

John C Martin Foundation, Gilead Sciences, and EndHep2030.

A new outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs during the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece

BACKGROUND

Multiple HIV outbreaks have been recorded among people who inject drugs (PWID) since 2010. During an intervention for PWID in 2019-2021 in Thessaloniki, Greece, an increasing number of HIV cases was documented. Here, we provide an analysis of this new outbreak.

METHODS

ALEXANDROS was a community-based program and participation included interviewing, rapid HIV/HCV tests, counselling and linkage to care. PWID were recruited through Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) in five sampling rounds. Crude and RDS-weighted HIV prevalence estimates were obtained. HIV incidence was estimated from data on 380 initially seronegative PWID with at least two tests. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess risk factors for HIV seroconversion.

RESULTS

In total, 1,101 PWID were recruited. At first participation, 53.7% were current PWID, 20.1% homeless, 20.3% on opioid substitution treatment and 4.8% had received syringes in the past 12 months. HIV prevalence (95% CI) was 7.0% (5.6-8.7%) and an increasing trend was observed over 2019-2021 (p = 0.002). Two-thirds of the cases (67.5%) were new diagnoses. HIV incidence was 7.0 new infections/100 person-years (95% CI:4.8-10.2). Homelessness in the past 12 months (HR:2.68; 95% CI:1.24-5.81) and receptive syringe sharing (HR:3.86; 95% CI:1.75-8.51) were independently associated with increased risk of seroconversion. By the end of the program, 67.3% of the newly diagnosed cases initiated antiretroviral treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A new HIV outbreak among PWID was documented in Greece during the COVID-19 pandemic with homelessness and syringe sharing being associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition. Peer-driven programs targeting the population of high-risk underserved PWID can be used to early identify emerging outbreaks and to improve linkage to HIV care.

Impact of COVID-19 & Response Measures on HIV-HCV Prevention Services and Social Determinants in People Who Inject Drugs in 13 Sites with Recent HIV Outbreaks in Europe, North America and Israel

HIV/HCV prevention among people who inject drugs (PWID) is of key public health importance. We aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 and associated response measures on HIV/HCV prevention services and socio-economic status of PWID in high-HIV-risk sites. Sites with recent (2011-2019) HIV outbreaks among PWID in Europe North America and Israel, that had been previously identified, were contacted early May 2020. Out of 17 sites invited to participate, 13 accepted. Semi-structured qualitative site reports were prepared covering data from March to May 2020, analyzed/coded and confirmed with a structured questionnaire, in which all sites explicitly responded to all 103 issues reported in the qualitative reports. Opioid maintenance treatment, needle/syringe programs and antiretroviral treatment /hepatitis C treatment continued, but with important reductions and operational changes. Increases in overdoses, widespread difficulties with food and hygiene needs, disruptions in drug supply, and increased homelessness were reported. Service programs rapidly reformed long established, and politically entrenched, restrictive service delivery policies. Future epidemic control measures should include mitigation of negative side-effects on service provision and socio-economic determinants in PWID.

Internet gaming disorder, exercise and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: The role of symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress

One of the issues that have risen the past few decades due to excessive use of technological advances is internet gaming disorder (IGD). Past research has concluded that there is a negative association between IGD and exercise as well as a positive association between IGD and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, the existing studies on these subjects are scarce. Furthermore, researchers have showcased that symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress are positively associated with IGD and ADHD but negatively associated with exercise. Consequently, maybe these symptoms mediate the relationships between IGD, exercise and ADHD. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between IGD and exercise as well as between IGD and ADHD. A correlational study was conducted on 515 adults through Google forms. The Internet Gaming Disorder Scale-Short-Form was used to detect IGD symptoms, the Leisure-Time Exercise Questionnaire was utilized so as to evaluate participants' leisure - time exercise habits, and the Barkley Adult ADHD Rating Scale was used to assess ADHD symptoms. Furthermore, the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 was utilized to evaluate symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress. It was found that there is a negative correlation between IGD symptoms and leisure time exercise as well as a positive correlation between IGD symptoms and ADHD symptoms. Moreover, when taking all the variables that were examined into consideration, it was indicated that inattention symptoms and impulsivity symptoms were significantly associated with IGD symptoms whereas symptoms of depression were partially and significantly mediating the association between IGD symptoms and Attention deficit as well as the association between IGD symptoms and Impulsivity. The findings of the current study suggest that people who deal with IGD symptoms tend to exercise less on their free time. Additionally, people with more IGD symptoms display not only more ADHD symptoms, symptoms of inattention and impulsivity specifically, but also more symptoms of depression. Therefore, clinicians should evaluate the possible coexistence of such symptoms when treating people with IGD, in order to prevent as well as treat more efficiently IGD and its consequences.

Securing wider EU commitment to the elimination of hepatitis C virus

In 2016, the Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association (HepBCPPA), gathered all the main stakeholders in the field of hepatitis C virus (HCV) to launch the now landmark HCV Elimination Manifesto, calling for the elimination of HCV in the EU by 2030. Since then, many European countries have made progress towards HCV elimination. Multiple programmes-from the municipality level to the EU level-were launched, resulting in an overall decrease in viremic HCV infections and liver-related mortality. However, as of 2021, most countries are not on track to reach the 2030 HCV elimination targets set by the WHO. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a decrease in HCV diagnoses and fewer direct-acting antiviral treatment initiations in 2020. Diagnostic and therapeutic tools to easily diagnose and treat chronic HCV infection are now well established. Treating all patients with chronic HCV infection is more cost-saving than treating and caring for patients with liver-related complications, decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. It is more important than ever to reinforce and scale-up action towards HCV elimination. Yet, efforts urgently need the dedicated commitment of policymakers at all governmental and policy levels. Therefore, the third EU Policy Summit, held in March 2021, featured EU parliamentarians and other key decision makers to promote dialogue and take strides towards securing wider EU commitment to advance and achieve HCV elimination by 2030. We have summarized the key action points and reported the 'Call-to-Action' statement supported by all the major relevant European associations in the field.

Estimating the number of people who inject drugs using repeated respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in a community-based program: implications for the burden of hepatitis C and HIV infections and harm reduction coverage

Estimates of the population size of people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential for efficient program planning and for monitoring key targets. Existing estimates in Greece are based on the capture-recapture method applied to drug treatment sources. We aimed to obtain estimates based on data collected from a community-based program addressing PWID in Athens, Greece. The program was implemented in 2012-2013 to increase diagnosis and treatment for HIV among PWID during an HIV outbreak. Five Responden-Driven Sampling (RDS) rounds were used to recruit participants. A unique code was used to identify participants among rounds. Capture-recapture was applied to estimate the population size in 2013 (PWID with injection in the past 12 months; active PWID with injection in the past 30 days). Log-linear models were applied. In 2013, the estimated number of active PWID in Athens was 4,117 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3,728-4,507] (vs. 1,956 [95% CI: 1,525-2,565] the existing population size estimate). Based on this estimate, the coverage of needle and syringe programs in 2013 was 103 syringes/PWID/year (vs. 216 based on the existing estimate). The population prevalence of injecting drug use in Athens (past 12 months) was 0.222% (95% CI: 0.200-0.245). The inclusion of data from community-based programs in the estimation of the PWID population size resulted in 2.1-fold higher estimates, compared to the official estimates obtained from drug treatment data, and indicates the need for re-evaluation of necessary resources for harm reduction and elimination of HIV and hepatitis C in PWID.

Predictive score for patients with carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales colonization upon admission in a tertiary care hospital in an endemic area

OBJECTIVES

Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) comprise important nosocomial pathogens worldwide. Colonized patients are the source of further dissemination in healthcare settings. Considering that timely detection of CPE carriers is pivotal but universal screening is unfeasible, we aimed to develop and validate a prediction score to detect patients harbouring CPE on hospital admission.

METHODS

The study was conducted in a tertiary care hospital located in a CPE endemic area. Rectal swabs were obtained from 2303 patients, screened shortly after hospital admission. The Enterobacterales isolated in cultures were examined for the presence of blaVIM, KPC, NDM, OXA-48 by PCR. Demographic data and patient history of the previous 6 months were recorded. Risk factors for CPE carriage were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model and a points-system risk score was developed. The discriminative ability of the risk score was assessed using the AUC and its predictive performance was validated in a second dataset of 1391 patients in a different time period.

RESULTS

Seven predictors were identified: previous CPE colonization or infection, prior hospitalization, stay in a long-term health care facility, history of ≥2 interventions, renal replacement therapy, diabetes with end-organ damage and Karnofsky score. The developed risk score in the derivation dataset ranged between 0 and 79 points, with an AUC of 0.84 in the derivation and 0.85 in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

This prediction tool may assist in identifying patients who are at risk of harbouring CPE on hospital admission in an endemic area and guide clinicians to implement prompt and appropriate infection control measures.

Transmission Potential of Human Monkeypox in Mass Gatherings

Since May 2022, a large number of monkeypox cases have been reported in Europe, the United States, and other nonendemic settings. Taking into account the strict measures implemented due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the desire of people to reclaim what is perceived as lost time, mass gatherings this summer were highly attended. Based on data for the secondary attack rate among unvaccinated contacts from endemic countries, we estimate that, on average, >1 secondary case is anticipated per infectious person if he/she has a high number of group contacts (>30) or >8 close contacts. Although the role of group contacts in mass gatherings is uncertain (less likely to involve physical contact, shorter duration), close contacts associated with the event (eg, intimate/sexual contact with other attendees) might be the amplifying event. Enforcing awareness, early recognition, and engaging affected populations in the monkeypox response are important to control transmission.

Ongoing HIV transmission following a large outbreak among people who inject drugs in Athens, Greece (2014-20)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece in 2011-13 was the largest recent epidemic in Europe and North America. We aimed to assess trends in HIV prevalence, drug use and access to prevention among PWID in Athens to estimate HIV incidence and identify risk factors and to explore HIV-1 dispersal using molecular methods during 2014-20.

METHODS

Two community-based HIV/hepatitis C programmes on PWID were implemented in 2012-13 (n = 3320) and 2018-20 (n = 1635) through consecutive respondent-driven sampling (RDS) rounds. PWID were uniquely identified among rounds/programmes. We obtained RDS-weighted HIV prevalence estimates per round for 2018-20 and compared them to 2012-13. We assessed changes in HIV status, behaviours and access to prevention in PWID participating in both periods. We estimated HIV incidence in a cohort of seronegative PWID as the number of HIV seroconversions/100 person-years during 2014-20 and used Cox regression to identify associated risk factors. Molecular sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed in HIV seroconverters.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence per round ranged between 12.0 and 16.2% in 2012-13 and 10.7 and 11.3% in 2018-20 with overlapping 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Among PWID participating in both programmes, HIV prevalence (95% CI) increased from 14.2% (11.7-17.1%) in 2012-13 to 22.0% (19.0-25.3%) in 2018-20 (P < 0.001). There was a deterioration in socio-economic characteristics such as homelessness [from 16.2% (95% CI = 13.5-19.2%) to 25.6% (22.3-29.0%)], a shift in cocaine use [16.6% (13.9-19.6%) versus 28.1% (24.7-31.7%], reduced access to free syringes [51.8% (48.0-55.7%) versus 44.5% (40.7-48.3%)] and a decrease in daily injecting [36.2% (32.6-39.9%) versus 28.5% (25.2-32.1%)]. HIV incidence (95% CI) in 2014-20 was 1.94 (1.50-2.52) new cases/100 person-years and younger age, lower educational level, larger injection network and daily injecting were risk factors. Almost 9% of HIV seroconversions occurred within a newly expanding phylogenetic cluster.

CONCLUSIONS

In Athens, Greece, compared with the period 2012-13, in the period 2018-20 there was a deterioration in socio-economic conditions among people who inject drugs, an increase in the use of cocaine, reduced access to needle and syringe programmes and stable low levels of human immunodeficiency virus testing. Ongoing human immunodeficiency virus transmission was documented during 2014-20 in existing as well as new transmission clusters.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC.

METHODS

The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67).

CONCLUSIONS

This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Modeling the impact of interventions during an outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs in 2012-2013 in Athens, Greece

BACKGROUND

A large HIV outbreak in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID) occurred in Athens, Greece in 2011-2013. In response, opioid substitution treatment (OST) and needle and syringe programs (NSP) were scaled-up and a seek-test-treat program was introduced in mid-2012. We aim to assess the impact of these interventions.

METHODS

A mathematical model of HIV transmission among PWID was calibrated to data available over time (2009-2013) on HIV prevalence, NSP/antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and high-risk injection. A combined interventions scenario, including decrease in high-risk injection through linkage to OST and modification of risk behaviours and access to NSP and ART, was compared to a counterfactual scenario (no improvement at the levels of these interventions), with HIV incidence being the main outcome.

RESULTS

HIV incidence increased from <0.1 new cases/100 person-years (in 2009) to 11.0 new cases/100 person-years (in 2012). Under both models, a subsequent decline was projected following early 2012, with incidence at the end of 2013 in the combined interventions scenario being lower by 77% compared to the counterfactual. The projected reduction in incidence under the intervention scenario was in agreement with empirical data. HIV prevalence would have escalated to 20.4% (95% CrI: 16.9%, 23.6%) in 2013 under the counterfactual scenario (vs. 16.8% (95% CrI: 11.2%, 23.0%) under the combined interventions scenario). In total, 31.4% of HIV cases (392) were averted over 2012-2013.

CONCLUSION

These results underline the importance of high-coverage harm reduction programs and of community-based interventions to rapidly reach PWID most in need.

Evaluating the effects of second-dose vaccine-delay policies in European countries: A simulation study based on data from Greece

The results of a simulation-based evaluation of several policies for vaccine rollout are reported, particularly focusing on the effects of delaying the second dose of two-dose vaccines. In the presence of limited vaccine supply, the specific policy choice is a pressing issue for several countries worldwide, and the adopted course of action will affect the extension or easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the next months. We employ a suitably generalised, age-structure, stochastic SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infectious → Removed) epidemic model that can accommodate quantitative descriptions of the major effects resulting from distinct vaccination strategies. The different rates of social contacts among distinct age-groups (as well as some other model parameters) are informed by a recent survey conducted in Greece, but the conclusions are much more widely applicable. The results are summarised and evaluated in terms of the total number of deaths and infections as well as life years lost. The optimal strategy is found to be one based on fully vaccinating the elderly/at risk as quickly as possible, while extending the time-interval between the two vaccine doses to 12 weeks for all individuals below 75 years old, in agreement with epidemic theory which suggests targeting a combination of susceptibility and infectivity. This policy, which is similar to the approaches adopted in the UK and in Canada, is found to be effective in reducing deaths and life years lost in the period while vaccination is still being carried out.

Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Persistence Among Greek Sexual Minority Men: Results from PrEP for Greece (P4G) Study

Nearly half the new HIV infections in Greece occur in sexual minority men, yet pre-exposure prophylaxis is not currently supported in the national HIV program. We examined factors associated with PrEP persistence among Greek SMM in PrEP for Greece, the first PrEP study in Greece. Participants (n = 100) were recruited from 2016 to 2018 through respondent-driven sampling among SMM in Athens, receiving supplies for daily PrEP at interval visits over 12-months. PrEP persistence, operationalized as Total PrEP Time, was high, 74% of participants achieving perfect persistence. Higher alcohol risk scores (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08-1.49) and adherence to HIV testing guidelines (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.00-1.51) were associated with persistence. Housing impermanence (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.04-0.48) and serostatus disclosure concerns (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.97) were associated with limited PrEP persistence. While PrEP persistence among Greek SMM is high, socioeconomic factors and societal attitudes may challenge prevention efforts.

Is Mandatory Vaccination in Population over 60 Adequate to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic in E.U.?

Vaccine hesitancy, which potentially leads to the refusal or delayed acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, is considered a key driver of the increasing death toll from the pandemic in the EU. The European Commission and several member states’ governments are either planning or have already directly or indirectly announced mandatory vaccination for individuals aged over 60, the group which has repeatedly proved to be the most vulnerable. In this paper, an assessment of this strategy’s benefits is attempted by deriving a metric for the potential gains of vaccination mandates that can be used to compare EU member states. This is completed by examining the reduction in Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL) per person for the EU population over 60 as a function of the member states’ vaccination percentage in these ages. The publicly available data and results of the second iteration of the SHARE COVID-19 survey on the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted during the summer of 2021, are used as inputs.

Relating SARS-CoV-2 shedding rate in wastewater to daily positive tests data: A consistent model based approach

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been engaged to complement medical surveillance and in some cases to also act as an early diagnosis indicator of viral spreading in the community. Most efforts worldwide by the scientific community and commercial companies focus on the formulation of protocols for SARS-CoV-2 analysis in wastewater and approaches addressing the quantitative relationship between WBE and medical surveillance are lacking. In the present study, a mathematical model is developed which uses as input the number of daily positive medical tests together with the highly non-linear shedding rate curve of individuals to estimate the evolution of global virus shedding rate in wastewater along calendar days. A comprehensive parametric study by the model using as input actual medical surveillance and WBE data for the city of Thessaloniki (~700,000 inhabitants, North Greece) during the outbreak of November 2020 reveals the conditions under which WBE can be used as an early warning tool for predicting pandemic outbreaks. It is shown that early warning capacity is different along the days of an outbreak and depends strongly on the number of days apart between the day of maximum shedding rate of infected individuals in their disease cycle and the day of their medical testing. The present data indicate for Thessaloniki an average early warning capacity of around 2 days. Moreover, the data imply that there exists a proportion between unreported cases (asymptomatic persons with mild symptoms that do not seek medical advice) and reported cases. The proportion increases with the number of reported cases. The early detection capacity of WBE improves substantially in the presence of an increasing number of unreported cases. For Thessaloniki at the peak of the pandemic in mid-November 2020, the number of unreported cases reached a maximum around 4 times the number of reported cases.

An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk.

METHODS

Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%-50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64-0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57-0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir.

LAY SUMMARY

Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.

Incidence of liver- and non-liver-related outcomes in patients with HCV-cirrhosis after SVR

BACKGROUND & AIMS

As the long-term benefits of a sustained virological response (SVR) in HCV-related cirrhosis following direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment remain undefined, we assessed the incidence and predictors of liver-related events (LREs), non-liver-related events (NLREs) and mortality in DAA-treated patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with cirrhosis and SVR were enrolled in a longitudinal, single-center study, and divided into 3 cohorts: Cohort A (Child-Pugh A without a previous LRE), Cohort B (Child-Pugh B or Child-Pugh A with prior non-hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] LREs), Cohort C (previous HCC).

RESULTS

A total of 636 patients with cirrhosis (median 65 years-old, 58% males, 89% Child-Pugh A) were followed for 51 (8-68) months (Cohort A n = 480, Cohort B n = 89, Cohort C n = 67). The 5-year estimated cumulative incidences of LREs were 10.4% in Cohort A vs. 32.0% in Cohort B (HCC 7.7% vs. 19.7%; ascites 1.4% vs. 8.6%; variceal bleeding 1.3% vs. 7.8%; encephalopathy 0 vs. 2.5%) vs. 71% in Cohort C (HCC only) (p <0.0001). The corresponding figures for NLREs were 11.7% in Cohort A vs. 17.9% in Cohort B vs. 17.5% in Cohort C (p = 0.32). The 5-year estimated probabilities of liver-related vs. non-liver-related deaths were 0.5% vs. 4.5% in Cohort A, 16.2% vs. 8.8% in Cohort B and 12.1% vs. 7.7% in Cohort C. The all-cause mortality rate in Cohort A was similar to the rate expected for the general population stratified by age, sex and calendar year according to the Human Mortality Database, while it was significantly higher in Cohort B.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis and an SVR on DAAs face risks of liver-related and non-liver-related events and mortality; however, their incidence is strongly influenced by pre-DAA patient history.

LAY SUMMARY

In this large single-center study enrolling patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis cured by direct-acting antivirals, pre-treatment liver disease history strongly influenced long-term outcomes. In patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma was the most frequent liver-related complication after viral cure. Due to improved long-term outcomes, patients with cirrhosis after HCV cure are exposed to a significant proportion of non-liver-related events.

Head-To-Head Comparison of Response Rates to the Two mRNA SARS-CοV-2 Vaccines in a Large Cohort of Solid Organ Transplant (SOT) Recipients

Due to their higher risk of developing life-threatening COVID-19 disease, solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients have been prioritized in the vaccination programs of many countries. However, there is increasing evidence of reduced immunogenicity to SARS-CοV-2 vaccination. The present study investigated humoral response, safety, and effectiveness after the two mRNA vaccines in 455 SOT recipients. Overall, the antibody response rate was low, at 39.6%. Higher immunogenicity was detected among individuals vaccinated with the mRNA1273 compared to those with the BNT162b2 vaccine (47% vs. 36%, respectively, p = 0.025) as well as higher median antibody levels of 31 (7, 372) (AU/mL) vs. 11 (7, 215) AU/mL, respectively. Among the covariates assessed, vaccination with the BNT162b2 vaccine, antimetabolite- and steroid-containing immunosuppression, female gender, the type of transplanted organ and older age were factors that negatively influenced immune response. Only mild adverse effects were observed. Our findings confirm poor immunogenicity after vaccination, implicating a reevaluation of vaccination policy in SOT recipients.

Dating the Origin and Estimating the Transmission Rates of the Major HIV-1 Clusters in Greece: Evidence about the Earliest Subtype A1 Epidemic in Europe

Our aim was to estimate the date of the origin and the transmission rates of the major local clusters of subtypes A1 and B in Greece. Phylodynamic analyses were conducted in 14 subtype A1 and 31 subtype B clusters. The earliest dates of origin for subtypes A1 and B were in 1982.6 and in 1985.5, respectively. The transmission rate for the subtype A1 clusters ranged between 7.54 and 39.61 infections/100 person years (IQR: 9.39, 15.88), and for subtype B clusters between 4.42 and 36.44 infections/100 person years (IQR: 7.38, 15.04). Statistical analysis revealed that the average difference in the transmission rate between the PWID and the MSM clusters was 6.73 (95% CI: 0.86 to 12.60; p = 0.026). Our study provides evidence that the date of introduction of subtype A1 in Greece was the earliest in Europe. Transmission rates were significantly higher for PWID than MSM clusters due to the conditions that gave rise to an extensive PWID HIV-1 outbreak ten years ago in Athens, Greece. Transmission rate can be considered as a valuable measure for public health since it provides a proxy of the rate of epidemic growth within a cluster and, therefore, it can be useful for targeted HIV prevention programs.

Univariable associations between a history of incarceration and HIV and HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs across 17 countries in Europe 2006 to 2020 – is the precautionary principle applicable?

Background

People who inject drugs (PWID) are frequently incarcerated, which is associated with multiple negative health outcomes.

Aim

We aimed to estimate the associations between a history of incarceration and prevalence of HIV and HCV infection among PWID in Europe.

Methods

Aggregate data from PWID recruited in drug services (excluding prison services) or elsewhere in the community were reported by 17 of 30 countries (16 per virus) collaborating in a European drug monitoring system (2006–2020; n = 52,368 HIV+/−; n = 47,268 HCV+/−). Country-specific odds ratios (OR) and prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated from country totals of HIV and HCV antibody status and self-reported life-time incarceration history, and pooled using meta-analyses. Country-specific and overall population attributable risk (PAR) were estimated using pooled PR.

Results

Univariable HIV OR ranged between 0.73 and 6.37 (median: 2.1; pooled OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.52–2.42). Pooled PR was 1.66 (95% CI 1.38–1.98), giving a PAR of 25.8% (95% CI 16.7–34.0). Univariable anti-HCV OR ranged between 1.06 and 5.04 (median: 2.70; pooled OR: 2.51; 95% CI: 2.17–2.91). Pooled PR was 1.42 (95% CI: 1.28–1.58) and PAR 16.7% (95% CI: 11.8–21.7). Subgroup analyses showed differences in the OR for HCV by geographical region, with lower estimates in southern Europe.

Conclusion

In univariable analysis, a history of incarceration was associated with positive HIV and HCV serostatus among PWID in Europe. Applying the precautionary principle would suggest finding alternatives to incarceration of PWID and strengthening health and social services in prison and after release (‘throughcare’).

Age-dependent effects on infectivity and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from nationwide contact tracing data in Greece

BACKGROUND

Understanding the factors that affect the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 remains important to keep transmission low and maximize the health benefits of vaccination. We assessed the factors associated with the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 based on contact tracing data.

METHODS

From 1 October to 9 December 2020, 29,385 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases (index cases, i.e. the first identified laboratory-confirmed cases or with the earliest symptom onset in a setting) and 64,608 traced contacts were identified in Greece. We assessed the prevalence of symptoms in cases, calculated secondary attack rates and assessed factors associated with infectivity and susceptibility to infection.

RESULTS

There were 11,232 contacts secondarily infected (secondary attack rate: 17.4%, 95% CI:17.0-17.8). Contacts aged 0-11 and 12-17 years were less susceptible to infection than adults 65 years or older (odds ratio (OR) [95% CI]: 0.28 [0.26-0.32] and 0.44 [0.40-0.49], respectively). Index cases aged 65 years or older were more likely to infect their contacts than other adults or children/adolescents. The odds of infection [95% CI] were higher in contacts exposed within the household (1.71 [1.59-1.85] vs. other) and in cases with cough (1.17 [1.11-1.25] vs. no cough). There was an interaction between the age of the index and the age of the contact with contacts 65 years or older having a higher probability of infection when exposed to cases of similar age than to children.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the role of age and age mixing in infectivity and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Precautions are necessary for individuals 65 or older as they have higher infectivity and susceptibility in contact with their peers.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic in vulnerable social groups in Athens, Greece

Background

The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Greece was identified in February 2020. During the COVID-19 pandemic two lockdowns took place (March-May 2020/November 2020-ongoing). People who use drugs (PWUD), as well as the homeless, constitute vulnerable social groups. The main aim of this study is to assess the impact of social distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic on these groups.

Methods

A program was implemented in Athens between December 2020 and January 2021 in a sample of PWUD and homeless recruited both in Substitution Treatment Units and the Homeless Shelters. The interview was conducted with a structured questionnaire.

Results

The study included 303 participants (215 PWUD and 88 homeless individuals (HI)). The mean (SD) age was 49.2 (9.7) and 61.9 (10.2) years for PWUD and HI respectively. Chronic hepatitis C was reported by 33% of PWUD and 1.1% of HI. HIV infection was reported in 9.3% of PWUD. Testing for SARS-CoV-2 was reported by 55% and 100% of PWUD and HI respectively; 0.8% of PWUD and 5.7% of HI were found positive. Compliance with individual measures against SARS-CoV-2 was reported to be high (98-100%) during lockdowns. 88.8% and 98.9% of PWUD and HI reported change in the quality life. Feelings of isolation were reported by 46.6% and 11.5% on PWUD and HI, respectively. PWID enrollment in OST programmes during the 1st and 2nd lockdown was 67.1% and 92.9% respectively. OST attendees did not report changes in treatment during lockdowns. Access to hygiene materials was 9.8% and 100% in 1st and 2nd lockdown. Access to drugs was high (91.5% and 94.3%) in both lockdowns. The illegal drug use as compared to regular use was increased 12.2%/14.3%, decreased 40.2%/40%, stable 47.6%/45.7% for 1st/2nd lockdown respectively.

Conclusions

The population studied is well-aware and compliant with the prevention measures against COVID-19 with access to frequent laboratory testing, low levels of SARS-CoV-2 and access to prevention materials.

Key messages

Among PWUD the OST services provision was stable. Provision of antiseptics was higher during the 2nd lockdown while changes in drug use were similar during the 1st and 2nd lockdown.

Limitation: This study does not assess PWUD with limited access to OST and HI living in the streets.

Comparative Immunogenicity of BNT162b2 mRNA Vaccine with Natural SARS-CoV-2 Infection

BNT162b2 has proven to be highly effective, but there is a paucity of data regarding immunogenicity factors and comparison between response to vaccination and natural infection. This study included 871 vaccinated healthcare workers (HCW) and 181 patients with natural infection. Immunogenicity was assessed by measuring anti-SARS-CoV-2 against the RBD domain of the spike protein (anti-RBD). Samples were collected 1-2 weeks after vaccination or 15-59 days post-onset of symptoms. Post-vaccine anti-RBD concentrations were associated with age, gender, vaccination side-effects (VSE) and prior infection (Pr-CoV). Anti-RBD median levels (95%CI) were lower by 2466 (651-5583), 6228 (3254-9203) and 7651 (4479-10,823) AU/mL in 35-44, 45-54, 55-70 yrs, respectively, compared with the 18-34 yrs group. In females, the median levels were higher by 2823 (859-4787), 5024 (3122-6926) in individuals with VSE, and 9971 (5158-14,783) AU/mL in HCWs with Pr-CoV. The ratio of anti-RBD in vaccinated individuals versus those with natural infection varied from 1.0 to 19.4. The high immunogenicity of BNT162b2 is verified, although its sustainability has yet to be elucidated. The use of comparative data from natural infection serological panels, expressing the clinical heterogeneity of natural infection, may facilitate early decisions for candidate vaccines to be evaluated in clinical trials.

Outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 in naturally infected mink farms: Impact, transmission dynamics, genetic patterns, and environmental contamination

SARS-CoV-2 infection outbreaks in minks have serious implications associated with animal health and welfare, and public health. In two naturally infected mink farms (A and B) located in Greece, we investigated the outbreaks and assessed parameters associated with virus transmission, immunity, pathology, and environmental contamination. Symptoms ranged from anorexia and mild depression to respiratory signs of varying intensity. Although the farms were at different breeding stages, mortality was similarly high (8.4% and 10.0%). The viral strains belonged to lineages B.1.1.218 and B.1.1.305, possessing the mink-specific S-Y453F substitution. Lung histopathology identified necrosis of smooth muscle and connective tissue elements of vascular walls, and vasculitis as the main early key events of the acute SARS-CoV-2-induced broncho-interstitial pneumonia. Molecular investigation in two dead minks indicated a consistently higher (0.3-1.3 log10 RNA copies/g) viral load in organs of the male mink compared to the female. In farm A, the infected farmers were responsible for the significant initial infection of 229 out of 1,000 handled minks, suggesting a very efficient human-to-mink transmission. Subsequent infections across the sheds wherein animals were being housed occurred due to airborne transmission. Based on a R0 of 2.90 and a growth rate equal to 0.293, the generation time was estimated to be 3.6 days, indicative of the massive SARS-CoV-2 dispersal among minks. After the end of the outbreaks, a similar percentage of animals were immune in the two farms (93.0% and 93.3%), preventing further virus transmission whereas, viral RNA was detected in samples collected from shed surfaces and air. Consequently, strict biosecurity is imperative during the occurrence of clinical signs. Environmental viral load monitoring, in conjunction with NGS should be adopted in mink farm surveillance. The minimum proportion of minks that need to be immunized to avoid outbreaks in farms was calculated at 65.5%, which is important for future vaccination campaigns.

Living in Roma Settlements in Greece: Self-Perceived Health Status, Chronic Diseases and Associated Social Determinants of Health

We aimed to assess the self-perceived health status and the presence of chronic diseases of adult Roma living in settlements in Greece, and to explore associated social determinants of health. Data were derived from the Hprolipsis Health Survey. Multivariable regression models were applied. In total, 534 adults, 287 women, and 247 men were recruited from twelve Roma settlements in four prefectures. Although 62% of the participants perceived their health status as good/very good, about half of them had been diagnosed with at least one chronic disease. Several structural and intermediary social determinants of health were found to be significantly associated with the health outcomes; prefecture, settlement type, sex, age group, living with a partner, presence of depression symptoms, food insecurity, and alcohol consumption were associated with self-perceived health status; settlement type, sex, age group, presence of anxiety symptoms, food insecurity and number of persons living in the house with the presence of a chronic disease. This is one of the few studies assessing the self-perceived health status and presence of chronic diseases in Roma settlements in Greece and investigating the associated social determinants of health in the world. Community-based participatory action research and health literacy programs are needed to mitigate health inequalities in Roma settlements.

Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Greece Reveals Low Rates of Onward Virus Transmission after Lifting of Travel Restrictions Based on Risk Assessment during Summer 2020

The novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly during the first months of 2020 and continues to expand in multiple areas across the globe. Molecular epidemiology has provided an added value to traditional public health tools by identifying SARS-CoV-2 clusters or providing evidence that clusters based on virus sequences and contact tracing are highly concordant. Our aim was to infer the levels of virus importation and to estimate the impact of public health measures related to travel restrictions to local transmission in Greece. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses included 389 full-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected during the first 7 months of the pandemic in Greece and a random collection in five replicates of 3,000 sequences sampled globally, as well as the best hits to our data set identified by BLAST. Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed by the maximum likelihood method, and the putative source of SARS-CoV-2 infections was inferred by phylogeographic analysis. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the presence of 89 genetically distinct viruses identified as independent introductions into Greece. The proportion of imported strains was 41%, 11.5%, and 8.8% during the three periods of sampling, namely, March (no travel restrictions), April to June (strict travel restrictions), and July to September (lifting of travel restrictions based on thorough risk assessment), respectively. The results of phylogeographic analysis were confirmed by a Bayesian approach. Our findings reveal low levels of onward transmission from imported cases during summer and underscore the importance of targeted public health measures that can increase the safety of international travel during a pandemic. IMPORTANCE Our study based on current state-of-the-art molecular epidemiology methods suggests that virus screening and public health measures after the lifting of travel restrictions prevented SARS-CoV-2 onward transmission from imported cases during summer 2020 in Greece. These findings provide important data on the efficacy of targeted public health measures and have important implications regarding the safety of international travel during a pandemic. Our results can provide a roadmap about prevention policy in the future regarding the reopening of borders in the presence of differences in vaccination coverage, the circulation of the virus, and the presence of newly emergent variants across the globe.

Sexual Mixing and HIV Transmission Potential Among Greek Men Who have Sex with Men: Results from SOPHOCLES

HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Greece remains unchanged despite effective response to a recent outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID). Network factors are increasingly understood to drive transmission in epidemics. The primary objective of the study was to characterize MSM in Greece, their sexual behaviors, and sexual network mixing patterns. We investigated the relationship between serostatus, sexual behaviors, and self-reported sex networks in a sample of MSM in Athens, Greece, generated using respondent driven sampling. We estimated mixing coefficients (r) based on survey-generated egonets. Additionally, multiple logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and to assess relationships between serostatus, sexual behaviors, and sociodemographic indicators. A sample of 1,520 MSM participants included study respondents (n = 308) and their network members (n = 1,212). Mixing based on serostatus (r = 0.12, σ_r = 0.09–0.15) and condomless sex (r = 0.11, σ_r = 0.07–0.14) was random. However, mixing based on sex-drug use was highly assortative (r = 0.37, σ_r = 0.32–0.42). This study represents the first analysis of Greek MSM sexual networks. Our findings highlight protective behavior in two distinct network typologies. The first typology mixed assortatively based on serostatus and sex-drug use and was less likely to engage in condomless sex. The second typology mixed randomly based on condomless sex but was less likely to engage in sex-drug use. These findings support the potential benefit of HIV prevention program scale-up for this population including but not limited to PrEP.

Homelessness, unstable housing, and risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus acquisition among people who inject drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and also have high levels of homelessness and unstable housing. We assessed whether homelessness or unstable housing is associated with an increased risk of HIV or HCV acquisition among PWID compared with PWID who are not homeless or are stably housed.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we updated an existing database of HIV and HCV incidence studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 13, 2017. Using the same strategy as for this existing database, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO for studies, including conference abstracts, published between June 13, 2017, and Sept 14, 2020, that estimated HIV or HCV incidence, or both, among community-recruited PWID. We only included studies reporting original results without restrictions to study design or language. We contacted authors of studies that reported HIV or HCV incidence, or both, but did not report on an association with homelessness or unstable housing, to request crude data and, where possible, adjusted effect estimates. We extracted effect estimates and pooled data using random-effects meta-analyses to quantify the associations between recent (current or within the past year) homelessness or unstable housing compared with not recent homelessness or unstable housing, and risk of HIV or HCV acquisition. We assessed risk of bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and between-study heterogeneity using the I2 statistic and p value for heterogeneity.

FINDINGS

We identified 14 351 references in our database search, of which 392 were subjected to full-text review alongside 277 studies from our existing database. Of these studies, 55 studies met inclusion criteria. We contacted the authors of 227 studies that reported HIV or HCV incidence in PWID but did not report association with the exposure of interest and obtained 48 unpublished estimates from 21 studies. After removal of duplicate data, we included 37 studies with 70 estimates (26 for HIV; 44 for HCV). Studies originated from 16 countries including in North America, Europe, Australia, east Africa, and Asia. Pooling unadjusted estimates, recent homelessness or unstable housing was associated with an increased risk of acquiring HIV (crude relative risk [cRR] 1·55 [95% CI 1·23-1·95; p=0·0002]; I2= 62·7%; n=17) and HCV (1·65 [1·44-1·90; p<0·0001]; I2= 44·8%; n=28]) among PWID compared with those who were not homeless or were stably housed. Associations for both HIV and HCV persisted when pooling adjusted estimates (adjusted relative risk for HIV: 1·39 [95% CI 1·06-1·84; p=0·019]; I2= 65·5%; n=9; and for HCV: 1·64 [1·43-1·89; p<0·0001]; I2= 9·6%; n=14). For risk of HIV acquisition, the association for unstable housing (cRR 1·82 [1·13-2·95; p=0·014]; n=5) was higher than for homelessness (1·44 [1·13-1·83; p=0·0036]; n=12), whereas no difference was seen between these outcomes for risk of HCV acquisition (1·72 [1·48-1·99; p<0·0001] for unstable housing, 1·66 [1·37-2·00; p<0·0001] for homelessness).

INTERPRETATION

Homelessness and unstable housing are associated with increased risk of HIV and HCV acquisition among PWID. Our findings support the development of interventions that simultaneously address homelessness and unstable housing and HIV and HCV transmission in this population.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research, National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Commonwealth Scholarship Commission.

Predictive performance of newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in treated Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B

Background & Aims

Recently, several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but they have not been assessed in non-Asian patients. We evaluated the predictability and comparative utility of our PAGE-B and recent Asian HCC risk scores in nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-treated adult Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without well-documented compensated cirrhosis but not previous diagnosis of HCC.

Methods

We included 1,951 patients treated with entecavir/tenofovir and followed up for a median of 7.6 years. The c-statistic was used to estimate the predictability of PAGE-B, HCC-Rescue, CAMD, mPAGE-B, and AASL score for HCC development within 5 or 10 years. The low- and high-risk group cut-offs were used for estimation of negative (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV), respectively.

Results

HCC developed in 103/1,951 (5.3%) patients during the first 5 years and in another 39/1,428 (2.7%) patients between years 5 and 10. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative HCC rates were 3.3%, 5.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. All scores offered good 5- and 10-year HCC prediction (c-statistic: 0.78–0.82). NPVs were always >99% (99.3–100%), whereas PPV ranged between 13% and 24%.

Conclusions

In NA-treated Caucasian patients with CHB including compensated cirrhosis, HCC risk scores developed in NA-treated Asian patients offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis, but the addition of albumin in mPAGE-B score does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well compensated liver disease.

Lay summary

Several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In Caucasian patients with CHB treated with oral antivirals, newer Asian HCC risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. For clinical practice, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.

•

In treated Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B, newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B.

•

PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.

•

The addition of albumin in mPAGE-B does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well-compensated liver disease.

Validation of molecular clock inferred HIV infection ages: Evidence for accurate estimation of infection dates

BACKGROUND

Improving HIV diagnosis, access to care and effective antiretroviral treatment provides our global strategy to reduce HIV incidence. To reach this goal we need to increase our knowledge about local epidemics. HIV infection dates would be an important information towards this goal, but they are largely unknown. To date, methods to estimate the dates of HIV infection are based mainly on laboratory or molecular methods. Our aim was to validate molecular clock inferred infection dates that were estimated by analysing sequences from 145 people living with HIV (PLHIV) with known transmission dates (clinically estimated infection dates).

METHODS

All HIV sequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing and were previously found to belong to well-established molecular transmission clusters (MTCs).

RESULTS

Our analysis showed that the molecular clock inferred infection dates were correlated with the clinically estimated ones (Spearman's Correlation coefficient = 0.93, p < 0.001) and that there was an agreement between them (Lin's concordance correlation coefficient = 0.92, p < 0.001). For the 61.4% of cases the molecular clock inferred preceded the clinically estimated infection dates. The median difference between clinically and molecularly estimated dates of infection was of 0.18 (IQR: -0.21, 0.89) years. The lowest differences were identified in people who inject drugs of our study population.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated time to more recent common ancestor (t_MRCA) of nodes within clusters provides a reliable approximation of HIV infections for PLHIV infected within MTCs. Next-generation sequencing data and molecular clock estimates based on heterochronous sequences provide, probably, more reliable methods for inferring infection dates. However, since these data are not available in most of the HIV clinical laboratories, our approach, under specific conditions, can provide a reliable estimation of HIV infection dates and can be used for HIV public health interventions.

Effects of Social Distancing Measures during the First Epidemic Wave of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Infection, Greece

Greece imposed a nationwide lockdown in March 2020 to mitigate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during the first epidemic wave. We conducted a survey on age-specific social contact patterns to assess effects of physical distancing measures and used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to simulate the epidemic. Because multiple distancing measures were implemented simultaneously, we assessed their overall effects and the contribution of each measure. Before measures were implemented, the estimated basic reproduction number (R₀) was 2.38 (95% CI 2.01-2.80). During lockdown, daily contacts decreased by 86.9% and R₀ decreased by 81.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 71.8%-86.0%); each distancing measure decreased R₀ by 10%-24%. By April 26, the attack rate in Greece was 0.12% (95% CrI 0.06%-0.26%), one of the lowest in Europe, and the infection fatality ratio was 1.12% (95% CrI 0.55%-2.31%). Multiple social distancing measures contained the first epidemic wave in Greece.

Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among health care workers in a country with low burden of COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

Greece is a country with limited spread of SARS-CoV-2 and cumulative infection attack rate of 0.12% (95% CI 0.06-0.26). Health care workers (HCWs) are a well-recognized risk group for COVID-19. The study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a nosocomial setting and assess potential risk factors.

METHODS

HCWs from two hospitals participated in the study. Hospital-1 was a tertiary university affiliated center, involved in the care of COVID-19 patients while hospital-2 was a tertiary specialized cardiac surgery center not involved in the care of these patients. A validated, CE, rapid, IgM/IgG antibody point-of-care test was used. Comparative performance with a reference globally available assay was assessed.

RESULTS

1,495 individuals consented to participate (response rate 77%). The anti-SARS-CoV-2 weighted prevalence was 1.26% (95% CI 0.43, 3.26) overall and 0.53% (95% CI 0.06, 2.78) and 2.70% (95% CI 0.57, 9.19) in hospital-1 and hospital-2, respectively although the study was underpowered to detect statistically significant differences. The overall, hospital-1, and hospital-2 seroprevalence was 10, 4 and 22 times higher than the estimated infection attack rate in general population, respectively. Suboptimal use of personal protective equipment was noted in both hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

These data have implications for the preparedness of a second wave of COVID-19 epidemic, given the low burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection rate, in concordance with national projections.

aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis.

METHODS

A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686).

RESULTS

We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide.

LAY SUMMARY

In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity.

The Emotion of Disgust among Medical and Psychology Students

The emotion of disgust evolved as a way to protect oneself from illness and is associated with aspects of disease avoidance. Disgust Scale–Revised (DS-R) (Olatunji et al., 2008) measures the disgust propensity of three kinds of disgust (core, animal reminder, contamination). Contextual factors, such as academic background, might influence DS-R scoring, especially among medical students, where the notion of disease is central. We examined DS-R scoring and the choice of postgraduate studies in medical (n = 94) and psychology (n = 97) students. In an anonymous web-based survey, participants completed the DS-R and a questionnaire including plans for postgraduate studies. Females outnumbered males and scored higher in total DS-R score (p = 0.003). Psychology students scored higher in all three kinds of disgust (p < 0.001 for core disgust and animal reminder, p = 0.069 for contamination disgust), indicating a higher level of disease avoidance. Medical students willing to follow Internal Medicine scored higher in core disgust (p < 0.05), while psychology students willing to study Experimental Psychology scored lower in the animal reminder subscale (p = 0.019 and p < 0.001 for the association between these subscales and the orientation of Medical and Psychology Students, respectively). In conclusion, disgust propensity as rated by DS-R is related to academic background and orientation preferences in postgraduate studies.

Similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma during long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort.

METHODS

We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n = 772) or TDF (n = 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset.

RESULTS

The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p = 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p = 0.038).

CONCLUSION

In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF.

LAY SUMMARY

In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis.

Presenting a conceptual framework for an HIV prevention and care continuum and assessing the feasibility of empirical measurement in Estonia: A case study

Objective

We aim to show the feasibility of using an integrated prevention and care continuum (PCC) model as a complete and improved tool for HIV control measurement and programming. Alignment of prevention and care continua is essential to further improve health outcomes and minimize HIV transmission risk.

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Methods

Data from 977 persons who inject drugs (PWID) collected in 2011–2016 in Tallinn, Estonia, were used to construct an HIV PCC for PWID, stratified by risk for acquiring or transmitting HIV infection and by coverage of combined interventions. We also estimated the average protective effect of current levels of intervention provision.

Results

74.4%, 20.3% and 35.2% of PWID were currently using needle and syringe programmes (NSP), drug treatment and HIV testing, respectively. 51.1% of current PWID were HIV seropositive and of those 62.5% were currently on ART and 19.0% were virally suppressed. Across the PCC, individuals moved between categories of being aware and ever using drug treatment (resulting in -50% “leakage”); from ever having used to currently using drug treatment (-59%); between “ever testing” and “current (continuous) testing” (-62%); and from self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence to viral suppression (-70%). Use of prevention services was higher among those at risk of transmission (HIV positive). The overall reduction in acquisition risk among HIV-negative PWID was 77.7% (95% CrI 67.8–84.5%), estimated by the modelled protective effects of current levels of NSP, drug treatment and ART compared to none of these services.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that developing a cohesive model for HIV prevention and treatment is feasible and reflects the bi-directional relationships between prevention and care. The integrated continuum model indicates the major factors which may predict the epidemic course and control response.

Containing Carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in an endemic setting

Background

Carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae (CP-Kp) has been established as important nosocomial pathogen in most tertiary care hospitals in Greece. The aim of the present study was to examine the impact of an enhanced infection control program on the containment of CP-Kp in a haematology unit where the incidence of CP-Kp infections was high.

Methods

The study was conducted from June 2011 to December 2014 in a haematology unit of a tertiary-care 500-bed hospital located in Athens, Greece. A bundled intervention (active surveillance cultures, separation of carriers from non-carriers, assignment of dedicated nursing staff, contact precautions, environmental cleaning, and promotion of hand hygiene) was tested whether would reduce colonization and infection caused by CP-Kp.

Results

A total of 2507 rectal swabs were obtained; 1199 upon admission from June 2011 to June 2013 and 1307 during hospitalization from June 2011 to December 2012. During intervention the admission prevalence of CP-Kp colonization (p < 0.001 for linear trend), the hospitalization prevalence (p = 0.001 for linear trend) and the incidence rate of CP-Kp colonization (p = 0.072 for linear trend) were declining. Application of segmented linear regression revealed that both the change in the level of CP-Kp BSI incidence rates (p = 0.001) as well as the difference between pre- and post-intervention slopes were statistically significant (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

A bundled intervention including active surveillance cultures on admission can attain maximum containment of CP-Kp colonization and infection in endemic acute healthcare settings.

HIV outbreaks among people who inject drugs in Europe, North America, and Israel

During 2011-16, HIV outbreaks occurred among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Canada (southeastern Saskatchewan), Greece (Athens), Ireland (Dublin), Israel (Tel Aviv), Luxembourg, Romania (Bucharest), Scotland (Glasgow), and USA (Scott County, Indiana). Factors common to many of these outbreaks included community economic problems, homelessness, and changes in drug injection patterns. The outbreaks differed in size (from under 100 to over 1000 newly reported HIV cases among PWID) and in the extent to which combined prevention had been implemented before, during, and after the outbreaks. Countries need to ensure high coverage of HIV prevention services and coverage higher than the current UNAIDS recommendation might be needed in areas in which short acting drugs are injected. In addition, monitoring of PWID with special attention for changing drug use patterns, risk behaviours, and susceptible subgroups (eg, PWID experiencing homelessness) needs to be in place to prevent or rapidly detect and contain new HIV outbreaks.

Design and Development of a Viral Hepatitis and HIV Infection Screening Program (Hprolipsis) for the General, Greek Roma, and Migrant Populations of Greece: Protocol for Three Cross-Sectional Health Examination Surveys

Background

Although infectious diseases are globally on the decline, they remain a major global public health problem. Among them, the hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV infection are of primary interest. Valid prevalence data on these infections are sparse in Greece, especially for vulnerable populations.

Objective

This study aimed to present the design and methods of Hprolipsis, an integrated viral hepatitis and HIV screening program administered to adults (≥18 years) from the general, Greek Roma, and migrant populations. Its aims were to estimate the prevalence of HBV, HCV, and HIV; assess infectious disease knowledge level; design, implement, and assess population-specific awareness actions; and offer individual counseling and referral when indicated and HBV vaccination to susceptible Roma and migrants.

Methods

Multistage, stratified, random sampling based on the 2011 Census was applied to select the general population sample, and nonprobability multistage quota sampling was used for Roma and migrant sample selection. Trained personnel made home (general population) or community (Roma and migrants) visits. Collected blood samples were tested for Hepatitis B surface Antigen, Hepatitis B core Antibody, Hepatitis B surface Antibody, Hepatitis C Antibody, and HIV 1,2 Antibody. The surveys were conducted during May 2013 and June 2016. To estimate an HCV prevalence of 1.5% with 0.3 precision, the required general population sample size was estimated to be 6000. As migrants constitute 10% of the whole Greek population, the migrant sample size was set to 600. A feasible sample size of 500 Greek Roma was set.

Results

In total, 6006 individuals from the general population (response rate 72%), 534 Greek Roma, and 612 migrants were recruited. Blood test results are available for 4245 individuals from the general population, 523 Roma, and 537 migrants.

Conclusions

Hprolipsis is the first nationwide survey on HBV, HCV, and HIV. Its results will enhance our understanding of the health needs and disease burden of these diseases in the 3 studied populations. Its implementation provided useful recommendations for future studies, particularly in vulnerable populations.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/13578

High-risk behaviors and their association with awareness of HIV status among participants of a large-scale prevention intervention in Athens, Greece

Background

Aristotle was a seek-test-treat intervention during an outbreak of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece that started in 2011. The aims of this analysis were: (1) to study changes of drug injection-related and sexual behaviors over the course of Aristotle; and (2) to compare the likelihood of risky behaviors among PWID who were aware and unaware of their HIV status.

Methods

Aristotle (2012–2013) involved five successive respondent-driven sampling rounds of approximately 1400 PWID each; eligible PWID could participate in multiple rounds. Participants were interviewed using a questionnaire, were tested for HIV, and were classified as HIV-positive aware of their status (AHS), HIV-positive unaware of their status (UHS), and HIV-negative. Piecewise linear generalized estimating equation models were used to regress repeatedly measured binary outcomes (high-risk behaviors) against covariates.

Results

Aristotle recruited 3320 PWID (84.5% males, median age 34.2 years). Overall, 7110 interviews and blood samples were collected. The proportion of HIV-positive first-time participants who were aware of their HIV infection increased from 21.8% in round A to 36.4% in the last round. The odds of dividing drugs at least half of the time in the past 12 months with a syringe someone else had already used fell from round A to B by 90% [Odds Ratio (OR) (95% Confidence Interval-CI): 0.10 (0.04, 0.23)] among AHS and by 63% among UHS [OR (95% CI): 0.37 (0.19, 0.72)]. This drop was significantly larger (p = 0.02) among AHS. There were also decreases in frequency of injection and in receptive syringe sharing in the past 12 months but they were not significantly different between AHS (66 and 47%, respectively) and UHS (63 and 33%, respectively). Condom use increased only among male AHS from round B to the last round [OR (95% CI): 1.24 (1.01, 1.52)].

Conclusions

The prevalence of risky behaviors related to drug injection decreased in the context of Aristotle. Knowledge of HIV infection was associated with safer drug injection-related behaviors among PWID. This highlights the need for comprehensive interventions that scale-up HIV testing and help PWID become aware of their HIV status.

A hepatitis C outbreak preceded the HIV outbreak among persons who inject drugs in Athens, Greece: Insights from a mathematical modelling study

People who inject drugs (PWID) comprise one of the major transmission risk groups for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). In 2011, Athens experienced a large HIV outbreak among PWID. Significant public health interventions were implemented in response to the HIV outbreak. The aims of this study were to estimate the indirect effects of the HIV interventions on HCV infection and to evaluate the concept of the association between HCV and HIV infections in the case of Athens. A dynamic, stochastic, individual-based model was developed to simulate HCV transmission among PWID. We calibrated the model to reproduce the observed HCV prevalence among PWID in Greece. Two years prior to the HIV outbreak, an undetected HCV outbreak has occurred. In 2009, the incidence of HCV infection increased from 640 (495, 842) cases in 2008 to 1260 (1060, 1500). The mean time from initiation of injecting drug use to HCV acquisition decreased from 29 months in 2008 to 13 months in 2009. After HIV interventions, HCV incidence declined by 64.8% in 2012, compared to 2009. The averted HCV incidence cases attributed to the HIV-implemented interventions were 2200 (1950, 2480), during 2012-2015. The cumulative number incident HCV cases in Athens during 2002-2015 was about 9900 (7800, 12 100). Our results highlight that before the 2011 HIV outbreak in Athens, an HCV outbreak occurred in 2009. Prevention measures for HIV that took place in the Athens metropolitan area in 2012 reduced significantly the incidence of HCV.

Knowledge, Normative Beliefs and Attitudes Related to Recent HIV Infection among People who Inject Drugs in Athens, Greece

BACKGROUND

Despite great improvements in prevention over the last years, much has to be done to reduce new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections. Substantial evidence shows that the six-month period of recent HIV infection contributes disproportionately to HIV transmission.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate knowledge, normative beliefs, and attitudes of people who inject drugs (PWID) regarding recent HIV infection.

METHODS

People who inject drugs in Athens, Greece were recruited in the fifth round of a respondent- driven sampling program (ARISTOTLE). The participants were tested for HIV and answered a structured questionnaire, which also included items on knowledge, normative beliefs, and attitudes regarding recent infection to address needs of the social network-based Transmission Reduction Intervention Project. The multivariable analyses included logistic regression models, which produced odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

In total, 1,407 people (mean age: 36.3 ± 7.9 years old; males: 81.9%) took part in the fifth round of ARISTOTLE. Of these, 61.5% knew that HIV-infected people who are not on treatment are more likely to transmit HIV during the first six months of their infection and 58.4% reported that people in their network would react positively towards a recently HIV-infected person. People who inject drugs who were knowledgeable of recent HIV infection were more likely to disagree with statements such as that one should avoid all contact with a person recently infected by HIV (adjusted OR: 1.510, 95% CI: 1.090, 2.091) or more likely to agree with statements such as that an HIV+ person is much less likely to transmit HIV when h/she is on combination antiretroviral treatment (adjusted OR: 2.083, 95% CI: 1.231, 3.523).

CONCLUSION

A considerable proportion of PWID in Athens, Greece, were aware of the high HIV transmission risk of recent HIV infection, although improvement is needed for some population segments. People who inject drugs who were knowledgeable of the role of recent HIV infection were more likely to have normative beliefs and attitudes that favor behaviors that could help rather than harm or stigmatize people who have recently been infected with HIV. Interventions that are based on the role of recent HIV infection in HIV transmission could be important to HIV prevention.

Aiming towards hepatitis C virus elimination in Greece

There are estimated to be 74,000-134,000 patients living with chronic hepatitis C in Greece, but only 20-30% of them are aware of their disease status. In July 2017, the Hellenic National Plan for Hepatitis C was announced in alignment with the World Health Organization goals for the eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) by the year 2030. This article discusses the epidemiology and current treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Greece. Additionally the authors propose actions on how to bring back to care diagnosed patients lost to follow up, optimize access to care for HCV-infected people who inject drugs, and increase HCV screening in the general population. The medical community in Greece can play a pivotal role in the implementation of the HCV National Plan and in the efforts to reach the goal of HCV elimination.