The durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2: a comparative evolutionary study

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals: measurement, causes and impact

Breakthrough infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in fully vaccinated individuals are receiving intense scrutiny because of their importance in determining how long restrictions to control virus transmission will need to remain in place in highly vaccinated populations as well as in determining the need for additional vaccine doses or changes to the vaccine formulations and/or dosing intervals. Measurement of breakthrough infections is challenging outside of randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind field trials. However, laboratory and observational studies are necessary to understand the impact of waning immunity, viral variants and other determinants of changing vaccine effectiveness against various levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Here, we describe the approaches being used to measure vaccine effectiveness and provide a synthesis of the burgeoning literature on the determinants of vaccine effectiveness and breakthrough rates. We argue that, rather than trying to tease apart the contributions of factors such as age, viral variants and time since vaccination, the rates of breakthrough infection are best seen as a consequence of the level of immunity at any moment in an individual, the variant to which that individual is exposed and the severity of disease being considered. We also address key open questions concerning the transition to endemicity, the potential need for altered vaccine formulations to track viral variants, the need to identify immune correlates of protection, and the public health challenges of using various tools to counter breakthrough infections, including boosters in an era of global vaccine shortages.

[Immunity to SARS CoV-2 - strengths and weaknesses]

In an unprecedented collaborative effort, basic and clinical scientists have provided us with an effective COVID-19 vaccine within less than one year after SARS CoV-2 emergence. Virus or vaccine induced immunity may offer different degrees of protection against infection, transmission and pathology (disease). Immunity decides on the outcome of COVID-19, both at an individual as well as a population level. In this literature analysis, emphasis is put first on the gold standard for evaluating human antiviral immunity: data from high quality, well-designed trials centered on patient outcome as clinical endpoint (morbidity, e. g. severe COVID-19). Next, case reports or case series on humans with inborn errors of immunity (IEI) may provide unique insights into human CoV-2 immunity. Surrogate markers in blood (e. g. antibody titers) are extensively employed for the evaluation of SARS CoV-2 immunity, but are not useful. SARS CoV-2 antibody titers neither indicate local immunity in the nasopharynx/respiratory tract nor do they reliably reflect systemic immunity. Systemic and tissue resident SARS CoV-2 specific effector and memory T-cells are key to immunity but cannot routinely be measured in blood. Based largely on clinical data, this literature analysis suggests that antiviral immunity against Coronaviruses including SARS CoV-2 is waning significantly over time regarding infection and transmission protection. However, in individuals who have recovered from infections with human Coronaviruses (including SARS CoV-2) or been vaccinated against SARS CoV-2, immunity is robust in its most critical quality: protection against pathology/severe disease. Thus, immunologists see the glass half-full and envisage the transition of COVID-19 from an epidemic to an endemic state with semiannual peaks of incidence but, most importantly, protection from severe COVID-19 or death in the vast majority of individuals (as observed in other human Coronavirus infections).

Duration of SARS-CoV-2 Natural Immunity and Protection against the Delta Variant: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to be highly protective against reinfection and symptomatic disease. However, effectiveness against the highly transmissible Delta variant and duration of natural immunity remain unknown.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 325,157 patients tested for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from 09 March 2020 to 31 December 2020 (Delta variant analysis) and 152,656 patients tested from 09 March 2020 to 30 August 2020 (long-term effectiveness analysis) with subsequent testing through 09 September 2021. The primary outcome was reinfection, defined as a positive PCR test >90 days after initial positive test.

Results

Among 325,157 patients tested before 31 December 2020, 50,327 (15.5%) tested positive. After 01 July 2021 (Delta dominant period), 40 (0.08%) of the initially positive and 1,494 (0.5%) of the initially negative patients tested positive. Protection of prior infection against reinfection with Delta was 85.4% (95% CI, 80.0-89.3). For the long-term effectiveness analysis, among 152,656 patients tested before 30 August 2020, 11,186 (7.3%) tested positive. After at least 90 days, 81 (0.7%) of the initially positive patients and 7,167 (5.1%) of the initially negative patients tested positive. Overall protection of previous infection was 85.7% (95% CI, 82.2-88.5) and lasted up to 13 months. Patients over age 65 had slightly lower protection.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 infection is highly protective against reinfection with the Delta variant. Immunity from prior infection lasts for at least 13 months. Countries facing vaccine shortages should consider delaying vaccinations for previously infected patients to increase access.

COVID-19 Incidence and Hospitalization During the Delta Surge Were Inversely Related to Vaccination Coverage Among the Most Populous U.S. Counties

Objective

We tested whether COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates during the Delta surge were inversely related to vaccination coverage among the 112 most populous counties in the United States, comprising 44 percent of the country's total population.

Methods

We measured vaccination coverage as the percent of the county population fully vaccinated as of July 15, 2021. We measured COVID-19 incidence as the number of confirmed cases per 100,000 population during the 14-day period ending August 12, 2021 and hospitalization rates as the number of confirmed COVID-19 admissions per 100,000 population during the same 14-day period.

Results

In log-linear regression models, a 10-percentage-point increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a 28.3% decrease in COVID-19 incidence (95% confidence interval, 16.8 - 39.7%), a 44.9 percent decrease in the rate of COVID-19 hospitalization (95% CI, 28.8 - 61.0%), and a 16.6% decrease in COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100 cases (95% CI, 8.4 - 24.8%). Inclusion of demographic covariables, as well as county-specific diabetes prevalence, did not weaken the observed inverse relationship with vaccination coverage. A significant inverse relationship between vaccination coverage and COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 during August 20 – September 16 was also observed. The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through June 30, 2021, a potential indicator of acquired immunity due to past infection, had no significant relation to subsequent case incidence or hospitalization rates in August.

Conclusion

Higher vaccination coverage was associated not only with significantly lower COVID-19 incidence during the Delta surge, but also significantly less severe cases of the disease.

Public Interest Summary

We tested whether COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates during the Delta variant-related surge were inversely related to vaccination coverage among the 112 most populous counties in the United States, together comprising 44 percent of the country's total population. A 10-percentage-point increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a 28.3% decrease in COVID-19 incidence, a 44.9 percent decrease in the rate of COVID-19 hospitalization, and a 16.6% decrease in COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100 cases. Inclusion of demographic covariables, as well as county-specific diabetes prevalence, did not weaken the observed inverse relationship with vaccination coverage. A significant inverse relationship between vaccination coverage and COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 during August 20 – September 16 was also observed. Higher vaccination coverage was associated not only with significantly lower COVID-19 incidence during the Delta surge, but also significantly less severe cases of the disease.

Are COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters Needed? The Science behind Boosters

Waning vaccine-induced immunity coupled with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has led to increases in breakthrough infections, prompting consideration for vaccine booster doses. Boosters have been reported to be safe and increase SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralizing antibody levels, but how these doses impact the trajectory of the global pandemic and herd immunity is unknown. Information on immunology, epidemiology, and equitable vaccine distribution should be considered when deciding the timing and eligibility for COVID-19 vaccine boosters.