Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity

Lake Tauca highstand (Heinrich Stadial 1a) driven by a southward shift of the Bolivian High

Heinrich events are characterized by worldwide climate modifications. Over the Altiplano endorheic basin (high tropical Andes), the second half of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1a) was coeval with the highstand of the giant paleolake Tauca. However, the atmospheric mechanisms underlying this wet event are still unknown at the regional to global scale. We use cosmic-ray exposure ages of glacial landforms to reconstruct the spatial variability in the equilibrium line altitude of the HS1a Altiplano glaciers. By combining glacier and lake modeling, we reconstruct a precipitation map for the HS1a period. Our results show that paleoprecipitation mainly increased along the Eastern Cordillera, whereas the southwestern region of the basin remained relatively dry. This pattern indicates a southward expansion of the easterlies, which is interpreted as being a consequence of a southward shift of the Bolivian High. The results provide a new understanding of atmospheric teleconnections during HS1 and of rainfall redistribution in a changing climate.

Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves

Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach of analytical models and traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, and extinction, driven by modeled climates of the past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed the impact of climate heterogeneity on diversification. The simulations identified regions and episodes of speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), and extinction (graves). Although the simulations had no target pattern and were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary maps for major taxa, confirming powerful roles for evolution and diversification driven by topography and climate.

Genetic and Historical Colonization Analyses of an Endemic Savanna Tree, Qualea grandiflora, Reveal Ancient Connections Between Amazonian Savannas and Cerrado Core

The evolutionary processes underlying the high diversity and endemism in the Cerrado, the most extensive Neotropical savanna, remain unclear, including the factors promoting the presence and evolution of savanna enclaves in the Amazon forest. In this study, we investigated the effects of past climate changes on genetic diversity, dynamics of species range and the historical connections between the savanna enclaves and Cerrado core for Qualea grandiflora, a tree species widely distributed in the biome. Totally, 40 populations distributed in the Cerrado core and Amazon savannas were analyzed using chloroplast and nuclear DNA sequences. We used phylogeographic, coalescent and ecological niche modeling approaches. Genetic data revealed a phylogeographic structure shaped by Pleistocene climatic oscillations. An eastern-western split in the Cerrado core was observed. The central portion of the Cerrado core harbored most of the sampled diversity for cpDNA. Ecological niche models predicted the presence of a large historical refuge in this region and multiple small refuges in peripheral areas. Relaxed Random Walk (RRW) models indicated the ancestral population in the north-western border of the central portion of the Cerrado core and cyclical dynamics of colonization related to Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Central and western ancient connections between Cerrado core and Amazonian savannas were observed. No evidence of connections among the Amazonian savannas was detected. Our study highlights the importance of Pleistocene climatic oscillations for structuring the genetic diversity of Q. grandiflora and complex evolutionary history of ecotonal areas in the Cerrado. Our results do not support the recent replacement of a large area in the Amazon forest by savanna vegetation. The Amazonian savannas appear to be fragmented and isolated from each other, evolving independently a long ago.

South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic

Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.

Thermal physiology of Amazonian lizards (Reptilia: Squamata)

We summarize thermal-biology data of 69 species of Amazonian lizards, including mode of thermoregulation and field-active body temperatures (Tb). We also provide new data on preferred temperatures (Tpref), voluntary and thermal-tolerance ranges, and thermal-performance curves (TPC's) for 27 species from nine sites in the Brazilian Amazonia. We tested for phylogenetic signal and pairwise correlations among thermal traits. We found that species generally categorized as thermoregulators have the highest mean values for all thermal traits, and broader ranges for Tb, critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and optimal (Topt) temperatures. Species generally categorized as thermoconformers have large ranges for Tpref, critical thermal minimum (CTmin), and minimum voluntary (VTmin) temperatures for performance. Despite these differences, our results show that all thermal characteristics overlap between both groups and suggest that Amazonian lizards do not fit into discrete thermoregulatory categories. The traits are all correlated, with the exceptions of (1) Topt, which does not correlate with CTmax, and (2) CTmin, and correlates only with Topt. Weak phylogenetic signals for Tb, Tpref and VTmin indicate that these characters may be shaped by local environmental conditions and influenced by phylogeny. We found that open-habitat species perform well under present environmental conditions, without experiencing detectable thermal stress from high environmental temperatures induced in lab experiments. For forest-dwelling lizards, we expect warming trends in Amazonia to induce thermal stress, as temperatures surpass the thermal tolerances for these species.

Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future.

Historical relationships of areas of endemism of the Brazilian Atlantic rain forest: a cladistic biogeographic analysis of harvestman taxa (Arachnida: Opiliones)

Based on a cladistic biogeographic analysis of 6 species-level phylogenies of harvestman taxa, we searched for congruence in the historical relationships of 12 areas of endemism of the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest. We constructed general area cladograms using Primary Brooks Parsimony Analysis (BPA), BPA of nodes, and paralogy-free subtree analysis. These analyses resulted in 6 general area cladograms, that allow to infer a general pattern of the relationships among areas of endemism from the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest. Northern areas resulted related basally showing main disjunctions at the Doce River Valley and Todos os Santos Bay/São Francisco River Valley. The remaining areas of endemism were included in a southern and a southeastern block, separated by the Ribeira do Iguape Valley. Incongruence Length Differences tests showed no significant incongruence among the resulting cladograms and other matrix partitions. We concluded that tectonism and ancient marine transgressions were the probable processes responsible for the main disjunctions, whereas Neogene refugia seem to have caused the more recent disjunctions. The general pattern and redundancy in area relationships suggest a model of main reiterative barriers in diversification at multiple times for the evolution of the Atlantic Rain Forest. The renewal of cladistic biogeography and the search for common biogeographic patterns are discussed.

Human disturbance amplifies Amazonian El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal

The long-term interaction between human activity and climate is subject to increasing scrutiny. Humans homogenize landscapes through deforestation, agriculture, and burning and thereby might reduce the capacity of landscapes to provide archives of climate change. Alternatively, land-use change might overwhelm natural buffering and amplify latent climate signals, rendering them detectable. Here we examine a sub-annually resolved sedimentary record from Lake Sauce in the western Amazonian lowlands that spans 6900 years. Finely-laminated sediments were deposited from ca. 5000 years ago until the present, and human activity in the watershed was revealed through the presence of charcoal and maize agriculture. The laminations, analyzed for color content and bandwidth, showed distinctive changes that were coupled to more frequent occurrence of fossil maize pollen. As agricultural activity intensified ca. 2200 cal. BP, the 2- to 8-year periodicity characteristic of El Niño-Southern Oscillation became evident in the record. These agricultural activities appeared to have amplified an existing, but subtle climatic signal that was previously absorbed by natural vegetation. When agricultural activity slowed, or land use around Lake Sauce changed at ca. 800 cal. BP, the signal of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity became erratic.

Coupling of equatorial Atlantic surface stratification to glacial shifts in the tropical rainbelt

The modern state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation promotes a northerly maximum of tropical rainfall associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). For continental regions, abrupt millennial–scale meridional shifts of this rainbelt are well documented, but the behavior of its oceanic counterpart is unclear due the lack of a robust proxy and high temporal resolution records. Here we show that the Atlantic ITCZ leaves a distinct signature in planktonic foraminifera assemblages. We applied this proxy to investigate the history of the Atlantic ITCZ for the last 30,000 years based on two high temporal resolution records from the western Atlantic Ocean. Our reconstruction indicates that the shallowest mixed layer associated with the Atlantic ITCZ unambiguously shifted meridionally in response to changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning with a southward displacement during Heinrich Stadials 2–1 and the Younger Dryas. We conclude that the Atlantic ITCZ was located at ca. 1°S (ca. 5° to the south of its modern annual mean position) during Heinrich Stadial 1. This supports a previous hypothesis, which postulates a southern hemisphere position of the oceanic ITCZ during climatic states with substantially reduced or absent cross-equatorial oceanic meridional heat transport.

Hydroclimate changes across the Amazon lowlands over the past 45,000 years

Reconstructing the history of tropical hydroclimates has been difficult, particularly for the Amazon basin-one of Earth's major centres of deep atmospheric convection. For example, whether the Amazon basin was substantially drier or remained wet during glacial times has been controversial, largely because most study sites have been located on the periphery of the basin, and because interpretations can be complicated by sediment preservation, uncertainties in chronology, and topographical setting. Here we show that rainfall in the basin responds closely to changes in glacial boundary conditions in terms of temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Our results are based on a decadally resolved, uranium/thorium-dated, oxygen isotopic record for much of the past 45,000 years, obtained using speleothems from Paraíso Cave in eastern Amazonia; we interpret the record as being broadly related to precipitation. Relative to modern levels, precipitation in the region was about 58% during the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) and 142% during the mid-Holocene epoch (about 6,000 years ago). We find that, as compared with cave records from the western edge of the lowlands, the Amazon was widely drier during the last glacial period, with much less recycling of water and probably reduced plant transpiration, although the rainforest persisted throughout this time.

Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

Relatively little is understood about seasonal effect of climate change on the Amazon rainforest. Here, the authors show that Amazon forest loss in response to dry-season intensification during the last glacial period was likely self-amplified by regional vegetation-rainfall feedbacks.

A high-resolution history of the South American Monsoon from Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

The exact extent, by which the hydrologic cycle in the Neotropics was affected by external forcing during the last deglaciation, remains poorly understood. Here we present a new paleo-rainfall reconstruction based on high-resolution speleothem δ¹⁸O records from the core region of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), documenting the changing hydrological conditions over tropical South America (SA), in particular during abrupt millennial-scale events. This new record provides the best-resolved and most accurately constrained geochronology of any proxy from South America for this time period, spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid-Holocene.

Equatorial Pacific forcing of western Amazonian precipitation during Heinrich Stadial 1

Abundant hydroclimatic evidence from western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes documents wet conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18–15 ka), a cold period in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This precipitation anomaly was attributed to a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon due to a change in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. However, the physical viability of this mechanism has never been rigorously tested. We address this issue by combining a thorough compilation of tropical South American paleorecords and a set of atmosphere model sensitivity experiments. Our results show that the Atlantic SST variations alone, although leading to dry conditions in northern South America and wet conditions in northeastern Brazil, cannot produce increased precipitation over western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes during HS1. Instead, an eastern equatorial Pacific SST increase (i.e., 0.5–1.5 °C), in response to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during HS1, is crucial to generate the wet conditions in these regions. The mechanism works via anomalous low sea level pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which promotes a regional easterly low-level wind anomaly and moisture recycling from central Amazonia towards the Andes.

Phylogeography of Partamona rustica (Hymenoptera, Apidae), an Endemic Stingless Bee from the Neotropical Dry Forest Diagonal

The South America encompasses the highest levels of biodiversity found anywhere in the world and its rich biota is distributed among many different biogeographical regions. However, many regions of South America are still poorly studied, including its xeric environments, such as the threatened Caatinga and Cerrado phytogeographical domains. In particular, the effects of Quaternary climatic events on the demography of endemic species from xeric habitats are poorly understood. The present study uses an integrative approach to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Partamona rustica, an endemic stingless bee from dry forest diagonal in Brazil, in a spatial-temporal framework. In this sense, we sequenced four mitochondrial genes and genotyped eight microsatellite loci. Our results identified two population groups: one to the west and the other to the east of the São Francisco River Valley (SFRV). These groups split in the late Pleistocene, and the Approximate Bayesian Computation approach and phylogenetic reconstruction indicated that P. rustica originated in the west of the SFRV, subsequently colonising eastern region. Our tests of migration detected reduced gene flow between these groups. Finally, our results also indicated that the inferences both from the genetic data analyses and from the spatial distribution modelling are compatible with historical demographic stability.

Ocean mixing and ice-sheet control of seawater 234U/238U during the last deglaciation

Seawater ²³⁴U/²³⁸U provides global-scale information about continental weathering and is vital for marine uranium-series geochronology. Existing evidence supports an increase in ²³⁴U/²³⁸U since the last glacial period, but the timing and amplitude of its variability has been poorly constrained. Here we report two seawater ²³⁴U/²³⁸U records based on well-preserved deep-sea corals from the low-latitude Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Atlantic ²³⁴U/²³⁸U started to increase before major sea-level rise and overshot the modern value by 3 per mil during the early deglaciation. Deglacial ²³⁴U/²³⁸U in the Pacific converged with that in the Atlantic after the abrupt resumption of Atlantic meridional overturning. We suggest that ocean mixing and early deglacial release of excess ²³⁴U from enhanced subglacial melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have driven the observed ²³⁴U/²³⁸U evolution.

Radiocarbon evidence for enhanced respired carbon storage in the Atlantic at the Last Glacial Maximum

The influence of ocean circulation changes on atmospheric CO2 hinges primarily on the ability to alter the ocean interior's respired nutrient inventory. Here we investigate the Atlantic overturning circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum and its impact on respired carbon storage using radiocarbon and stable carbon isotope data from the Brazil and Iberian Margins. The data demonstrate the existence of a shallow well-ventilated northern-sourced cell overlying a poorly ventilated, predominantly southern-sourced cell at the Last Glacial Maximum. We also find that organic carbon remineralization rates in the deep Atlantic remained broadly similar to modern, but that ventilation ages in the southern-sourced overturning cell were significantly increased. Respired carbon storage in the deep Atlantic was therefore enhanced during the last glacial period, primarily due to an increase in the residence time of carbon in the deep ocean, rather than an increase in biological carbon export.

Transcriptomic Characterization of Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum, Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change substantially affects biodiversity around the world, especially in the Amazon region, which is home to a significant portion of the world’s biodiversity. Freshwater fishes are susceptible to increases in water temperature and variations in the concentrations of dissolved gases, especially oxygen and carbon dioxide. It is important to understand the mechanisms underlying the physiological and biochemical abilities of fishes to survive such environmental changes. In the present study, we applied RNA-Seq and de novo transcriptome sequencing to evaluate transcriptome alterations in tambaqui when exposed to five or fifteen days of the B1, A1B and A2 climate scenarios foreseen by the IPCC. The generated ESTs were assembled into 54,206 contigs. Gene ontology analysis and the STRING tool were then used to identify candidate protein domains, genes and gene families potentially responsible for the adaptation of tambaqui to climate changes. After sequencing eight RNA-Seq libraries, 32,512 genes were identified and mapped using the Danio rerio genome as a reference. In total, 236 and 209 genes were differentially expressed at five and fifteen days, respectively, including chaperones, energetic metabolism-related genes, translation initiation factors and ribosomal genes. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed that mitochondrion, protein binding, protein metabolic process, metabolic processes, gene expression, structural constituent of ribosome and translation were the most represented terms. In addition, 1,202 simple sequence repeats were detected, 88 of which qualified for primer design. These results show that cellular response to climate change in tambaqui is complex, involving many genes, and it may be controlled by different cues and transcription/translation regulation mechanisms. The data generated from this study provide a valuable resource for further studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the adaptation of tambaqui and other closely related teleost species to climate change.

Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events.

Prediction of phylogeographic endemism in an environmentally complex biome

Phylogeographic endemism, the degree to which the history of recently evolved lineages is spatially restricted, reflects fundamental evolutionary processes such as cryptic divergence, adaptation and biological responses to environmental heterogeneity. Attempts to explain the extraordinary diversity of the tropics, which often includes deep phylogeographic structure, frequently invoke interactions of climate variability across space, time and topography. To evaluate historical versus contemporary drivers of phylogeographic endemism in a tropical system, we analyse the effects of current and past climatic variation on the genetic diversity of 25 vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. We identify two divergent bioclimatic domains within the forest and high turnover around the Rio Doce. Independent modelling of these domains demonstrates that endemism patterns are subject to different climatic drivers. Past climate dynamics, specifically areas of relative stability, predict phylogeographic endemism in the north. Conversely, contemporary climatic heterogeneity better explains endemism in the south. These results accord with recent speleothem and fossil pollen studies, suggesting that climatic variability through the last 250 kyr impacted the northern and the southern forests differently. Incorporating sub-regional differences in climate dynamics will enhance our ability to understand those processes shaping high phylogeographic and species endemism, in the Neotropics and beyond.

Phenotypic evolution of an Atlantic Forest passerine (Xiphorhynchus fuscus): biogeographic and systematic implications

We studied the phenotypic variation of the Atlantic Forest passerine Xiphorhynchus fuscus (Aves: Dendrocolaptidae) with the broad aim of addressing whether the history and type of forest affected the evolution of endemic taxa. We also tested whether the different subspecies and genetic lineages of X. fuscus could be considered full species. We collected plumage and body size measurements and, in combination with genetic data, used multivariate tests to evaluate the working hypotheses. Our results, combined with previous biogeographic analyses, indicate that vicariant events have been important determinants in the evolution of phenotypic characters of X. fuscus, once genetic isolation was complete. Our analysis also suggests that forest heterogeneity and ecotones are important factors in the early evolution of Atlantic Forest taxa, perhaps via divergent selection. Forest instability during the Pleistocene was critical in the evolution of phenotypic traits. We confirm that the subspecies atlanticus should be considered a full species. Other lineages or populations are also phenotypically differentiated but we do not suggest considering them as full species. They share high levels of gene flow and are part of a continuous latitudinal cline of phenotypic variation. Our study suggests that not all the historic events in the Atlantic Forest that affected the evolution of genetic lineages also influenced the evolution of phenotypic characters in the same direction and intensity. Undoubtedly, natural selection played a major role in the evolution of Atlantic Forest organisms.

Genomic variation in a widespread Neotropical bird (Xenops minutus) reveals divergence, population expansion, and gene flow

The demographic and phylogeographic histories of species provide insight into the processes responsible for generating biological diversity, and genomic datasets are now permitting the estimation of species histories with unprecedented accuracy. We used a genomic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) dataset generated using a RAD-Seq method to investigate the historical demography and phylogeography of a widespread lowland Neotropical bird (Xenops minutus). As expected, we found that prominent landscape features that act as dispersal barriers, such as Amazonian rivers and the Andes Mountains, are associated with the deepest phylogeographic breaks, and also that isolation by distance is limited in areas between these barriers. In addition, we inferred positive population growth for most populations and detected evidence of historical gene flow between populations that are now physically isolated. Although we were able to reconstruct the history of Xenops minutus with unprecedented resolution, we had difficulty conclusively relating this history to the landscape events implicated in many Neotropical diversification hypotheses. We suggest that even if many traditional diversification hypotheses remain untestable, investigations using genomic datasets will provide greater resolution of species histories in the Neotropics and elsewhere.

The drivers of tropical speciation

Since the recognition that allopatric speciation can be induced by large-scale reconfigurations of the landscape that isolate formerly continuous populations, such as the separation of continents by plate tectonics, the uplift of mountains or the formation of large rivers, landscape change has been viewed as a primary driver of biological diversification. This process is referred to in biogeography as vicariance. In the most species-rich region of the world, the Neotropics, the sundering of populations associated with the Andean uplift is ascribed this principal role in speciation. An alternative model posits that rather than being directly linked to landscape change, allopatric speciation is initiated to a greater extent by dispersal events, with the principal drivers of speciation being organism-specific abilities to persist and disperse in the landscape. Landscape change is not a necessity for speciation in this model. Here we show that spatial and temporal patterns of genetic differentiation in Neotropical birds are highly discordant across lineages and are not reconcilable with a model linking speciation solely to landscape change. Instead, the strongest predictors of speciation are the amount of time a lineage has persisted in the landscape and the ability of birds to move through the landscape matrix. These results, augmented by the observation that most species-level diversity originated after episodes of major Andean uplift in the Neogene period, suggest that dispersal and differentiation on a matrix previously shaped by large-scale landscape events was a major driver of avian speciation in lowland Neotropical rainforests.

Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y

The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18-24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar δ(18)O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka.