Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Connecting genotypes to medically relevant phenotypes in major vector mosquitoes

Transmission of mosquito-borne human disease relies on vectors maintaining strong human host preference and continued susceptibility to disease-causing pathogens or parasites. These traits are affected by the genetics and the environments of all involved organisms, and genotypic interactions are common between parasite and vector, and between virus and vector. A recent study on Aedes host preference has exploited natural genetic variation to make great progress. Here I review our current understanding of the genetic basis of transmission-relevant traits in Anopheles and Aedes, highlighting additional research areas that would benefit from the integration of natural genetic variation.

The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes

Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain persistent gaps in understanding of vital rates and drivers in mosquito-vectored disease systems, and vast holes in understanding for other arthropod vectored diseases. Empirical studies are needed to better understand the physiological constraints and socio-ecological processes that generate heterogeneity in critical transmission parameters, including vector survival and fitness. Likewise, laboratory experiments and transmission models must evaluate vector response to realistic field conditions, including variability in sociological and environmental conditions.

Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal--A Systematic Synthesis of Literature

Background

Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change.

Methodology

A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines.

Principal Findings

We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies.

Conclusion

Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.

A critical assessment of vector control for dengue prevention

Recently, the Vaccines to Vaccinate (v2V) initiative was reconfigured into the Partnership for Dengue Control (PDC), a multi-sponsored and independent initiative. This redirection is consistent with the growing consensus among the dengue-prevention community that no single intervention will be sufficient to control dengue disease. The PDC's expectation is that when an effective dengue virus (DENV) vaccine is commercially available, the public health community will continue to rely on vector control because the two strategies complement and enhance one another. Although the concept of integrated intervention for dengue prevention is gaining increasingly broader acceptance, to date, no consensus has been reached regarding the details of how and what combination of approaches can be most effectively implemented to manage disease. To fill that gap, the PDC proposed a three step process: (1) a critical assessment of current vector control tools and those under development, (2) outlining a research agenda for determining, in a definitive way, what existing tools work best, and (3) determining how to combine the best vector control options, which have systematically been defined in this process, with DENV vaccines. To address the first step, the PDC convened a meeting of international experts during November 2013 in Washington, DC, to critically assess existing vector control interventions and tools under development. This report summarizes those deliberations.

The role of heterogeneity on the invasion probability of mosquito-borne diseases in multi-host models

Heterogeneity in transmission and stochastic events can play a significant role in shaping the epidemic dynamics of vector-borne infections, especially in the initial phase of an outbreak. In this work, by using multi-type branching process methodologies, we assess how heterogeneities in transmission among a large number of host groups can affect the invasion probabilities of a mosquito-borne disease. We show with both analytical and numerical methods that heterogeneities in transmission can shape the invasion probabilities differently from how they affect the basic reproduction number (R0). In particular, we find that, while R0 always increases with the heterogeneity, the invasion probability after the introduction of infected hosts can decrease with the increase of transmission heterogeneity, even approaching zero when the number of host groups is very large. In addition, we show that the invasion probability via infected vectors is always larger than via infected hosts when heterogeneous transmission is sufficiently high. Our findings suggest that, for multi-species infections (e.g. West Nile fever and Rift Valley fever) or for single-species infections with patchy host distribution, the introduction of primary infected vectors may represent a higher risk for major outbreaks occurrence than introductions of infected hosts.

Understanding West Nile virus ecology in Europe: Culex pipiens host feeding preference in a hotspot of virus emergence

BACKGROUND

Understanding wildlife disease ecology is becoming an urgent need due to the continuous emergence and spread of several wildlife zoonotic diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is the most widespread arthropod-borne virus in the world, and in recent decades there has been an increase both in geographic range, and in the frequency of symptomatic infections in humans and wildlife. The principal vector for WNV in Europe is the common house Culex pipiens mosquito, which feeds on a wide variety of vertebrate host species. Variation in mosquito feeding preference has been described as one of the most influential parameters driving intensity and timing of WNV infection in the United States, but feeding preferences for this species have been little studied in Europe.

METHODS

Here, we estimated feeding preference for wild Cx. pipiens in northern Italy, using molecular analysis to identify the origin of blood meals, and avian census to control host abundance variations. Additionally, we used host bird odour extracts to test experimentally mosquito preferences in the absence of environmental variations.

RESULTS

For the first time, we demonstrate a clear feeding preference for the common blackbird (Turdus merula), both for wild collected specimens and in the lab, suggesting a potential important role for this species in the WNV epidemiology in Europe. A seasonal decrease in abundance of blackbirds is associated with increased feeding on Eurasian magpies (Pica pica), and this may be linked to seasonal emergence of WNV in humans. Feeding preferences on blackbirds are more marked in rural areas, while preference for magpies is higher in peridomestic areas. Other species, such as the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) appear to be selected by mosquitoes opportunistically in relation to its abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide new insights into the ecology of Cx. pipiens in Europe and may give useful indications in terms of implementing targeted WNV surveillance plans. However, a clearer understanding of spatio-temporal variations of Cx. pipiens feeding preferences, and targeted studies on reservoir competence for WNV for these species are therefore now urgently needed as this is essential to describe disease dynamics and quantify virus transmission risk.

Dengue disease outbreak definitions are implicitly variable

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With appropriate and timely control, disease outbreak burden can be minimised.

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Many different case data-based statistical methods are used to trigger outbreak response.

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Here we show that these methods are inconsistent and incomparable.

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This may hinder the effectiveness of outbreak response.

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Clear quantitative definitions of an outbreak are a prerequisite for effective outbreak early warning and response.

Infectious diseases rarely exhibit simple dynamics. Outbreaks (defined as excess cases beyond response capabilities) have the potential to cause a disproportionately high burden due to overwhelming health care systems. The recommendations of international policy guidelines and research agendas are based on a perceived standardised definition of an outbreak characterised by a prolonged, high-caseload, extra-seasonal surge. In this analysis we apply multiple candidate outbreak definitions to reported dengue case data from Brazil to test this assumption. The methods identify highly heterogeneous outbreak characteristics in terms of frequency, duration and case burden. All definitions identify outbreaks with characteristics that vary over time and space. Further, definitions differ in their timeliness of outbreak onset, and thus may be more or less suitable for early intervention. This raises concerns about the application of current outbreak guidelines for early warning/identification systems. It is clear that quantitatively defining the characteristics of an outbreak is an essential prerequisite for effective reactive response. More work is needed so that definitions of disease outbreaks can take into account the baseline capacities of treatment, surveillance and control. This is essential if outbreak guidelines are to be effective and generalisable across a range of epidemiologically different settings.

The many projected futures of dengue

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

Modeling tools for dengue risk mapping - a systematic review

Introduction

The global spread and the increased frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue in the last 50 years underscore the urgent need for effective tools for surveillance, prevention, and control. This review aims at providing a systematic overview of what predictors are critical and which spatial and spatio-temporal modeling approaches are useful in generating risk maps for dengue.

Methods

A systematic search was undertaken, using the PubMed, Web of Science, WHOLIS, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and OvidSP databases for published citations, without language or time restrictions. A manual search of the titles and abstracts was carried out using predefined criteria, notably the inclusion of dengue cases. Data were extracted for pre-identified variables, including the type of predictors and the type of modeling approach used for risk mapping.

Results

A wide variety of both predictors and modeling approaches was used to create dengue risk maps. No specific patterns could be identified in the combination of predictors or models across studies. The most important and commonly used predictors for the category of demographic and socio-economic variables were age, gender, education, housing conditions and level of income. Among environmental variables, precipitation and air temperature were often significant predictors. Remote sensing provided a source of varied land cover data that could act as a proxy for other predictor categories. Descriptive maps showing dengue case hotspots were useful for identifying high-risk areas. Predictive maps based on more complex methodology facilitated advanced data analysis and visualization, but their applicability in public health contexts remains to be established.

Conclusions

The majority of available dengue risk maps was descriptive and based on retrospective data. Availability of resources, feasibility of acquisition, quality of data, alongside available technical expertise, determines the accuracy of dengue risk maps and their applicability to the field of public health. A large number of unknowns, including effective entomological predictors, genetic diversity of circulating viruses, population serological profile, and human mobility, continue to pose challenges and to limit the ability to produce accurate and effective risk maps, and fail to support the development of early warning systems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-13-50) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling the contribution of the hypnozoite reservoir to Plasmodium vivax transmission

Plasmodium vivax relapse infections occur following activation of latent liver-stages parasites (hypnozoites) causing new blood-stage infections weeks to months after the initial infection. We develop a within-host mathematical model of liver-stage hypnozoites, and validate it against data from tropical strains of P. vivax. The within-host model is embedded in a P. vivax transmission model to demonstrate the build-up of the hypnozoite reservoir following new infections and its depletion through hypnozoite activation and death. The hypnozoite reservoir is predicted to be over-dispersed with many individuals having few or no hypnozoites, and some having intensely infected livers. Individuals with more hypnozoites are predicted to experience more relapses and contribute more to onwards P. vivax transmission. Incorporating hypnozoite killing drugs such as primaquine into first-line treatment regimens is predicted to cause substantial reductions in P. vivax transmission as individuals with the most hypnozoites are more likely to relapse and be targeted for treatment.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04692.001

Malaria is one of the world's most deadly infections, causing 100s of 1000s of deaths each year despite being both preventable and curable. Malaria is caused by Plasmodium parasites, which are transmitted between humans by mosquitoes. When a mosquito bites a human, Plasmodium is injected into the bloodstream with the mosquito's saliva. The parasite then travels through the bloodstream to the liver, infects liver cells and multiplies within those cells without causing any noticeable symptoms. After remaining silent in the liver for weeks or months, the now abundant parasite ruptures the host liver cell, re-enters the bloodstream, and begins infecting red blood cells. If another mosquito bites the infected individual and takes a blood meal, the parasite moves into the mosquito and the cycle of transmission continues.

There are several species of Plasmodium that are known to cause malaria. The most widely studied species is P. falciparum, which also causes one of the deadliest types of malaria. However, another Plasmodium species called P. vivax is the most widely distributed species and, despite being less virulent than P. falciparum, is particularly dangerous because it causes recurring malaria.

In contrast to P. falciparum, P. vivax has the ability to form hypnozoites: a dormant form of the parasite that can remain inside liver cells for long periods of time, sometimes for years. The reservoir of P. vivax hypnozoites can regularly populate the bloodstream with the infectious form of the parasite, triggering relapses of malaria. Even if an individual suffering a relapse receives prompt treatment to clear parasites in the blood, more parasites may emerge from the liver and cause new blood-stage infections.

White et al. developed a mathematical model to help understand how P. vivax is transmitted. Unlike many of the established models of malaria transmission, the new model accounts for the reservoir of P. vivax hypnozoites in the liver, and assumes that hypnozoites in the reservoir either die, or are activated and enter the bloodstream, at a constant rate. This produces patterns that closely match how often relapses occur in patients. White et al. go on to predict that although many infected people have few or no hypnozoites in their liver, some have many hypnozoites, and these people are more likely to suffer from malaria relapses. This suggests that if the initial treatments given to malaria sufferers incorporate additional drugs that kill the hypnozoites in the liver, then it may be possible to substantially reduce the extent of P. vivax transmission.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04692.002

Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations.

METHODS

Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission.

RESULTS

Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation.

A global assembly of adult female mosquito mark-release-recapture data to inform the control of mosquito-borne pathogens

Background

Pathogen transmission by mosquitos is known to be highly sensitive to mosquito bionomic parameters. Mosquito mark-release-recapture (MMRR) experiments are a standard method for estimating such parameters including dispersal, population size and density, survival, blood feeding frequency and blood meal host preferences.

Methods

We assembled a comprehensive database describing adult female MMRR experiments. Bibliographic searches were used to build a digital library of MMRR studies and selected data describing the reported outcomes were extracted.

Results

The resulting database contained 774 unique adult female MMRR experiments involving 58 vector mosquito species from the three main genera of importance to human health: Aedes, Anopheles and Culex. Crude examination of these data revealed patterns associated with geography as well as mosquito genus, consistent with bionomics varying by species-specific life history and ecological context. Recapture success varied considerably and was significantly different amongst genera, with 8, 4 and 1% of adult females recaptured for Aedes, Anopheles and Culex species, respectively. A large proportion of experiments (59%) investigated dispersal and survival and many allowed disaggregation of the release and recapture data. Geographic coverage was limited to just 143 localities around the world.

Conclusions

This MMRR database is a substantial contribution to the compilation of global data that can be used to better inform basic research and public health interventions, to identify and fill knowledge gaps and to enrich theory and evidence-based ecological and epidemiological studies of mosquito vectors, pathogen transmission and disease prevention. The database revealed limited geographic coverage and a relative scarcity of information for vector species of substantial public health relevance. It represents, however, a wealth of entomological information not previously compiled and of particular interest for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission models.

Testing a multi-malaria-model ensemble against 30 years of data in the Kenyan highlands

Background

Multi-model ensembles could overcome challenges resulting from uncertainties in models’ initial conditions, parameterization and structural imperfections. They could also quantify in a probabilistic way uncertainties in future climatic conditions and their impacts.

Methods

A four-malaria-model ensemble was implemented to assess the impact of long-term changes in climatic conditions on Plasmodium falciparum malaria morbidity observed in Kericho, in the highlands of Western Kenya, over the period 1979–2009. Input data included quality controlled temperature and rainfall records gathered at a nearby weather station over the historical periods 1979–2009 and 1980–2009, respectively. Simulations included models’ sensitivities to changes in sets of parameters and analysis of non-linear changes in the mean duration of host’s infectivity to vectors due to increased resistance to anti-malarial drugs.

Results

The ensemble explained from 32 to 38% of the variance of the observed P. falciparum malaria incidence. Obtained R²-values were above the results achieved with individual model simulation outputs. Up to 18.6% of the variance of malaria incidence could be attributed to the +0.19 to +0.25°C per decade significant long-term linear trend in near-surface air temperatures. On top of this 18.6%, at least 6% of the variance of malaria incidence could be related to the increased resistance to anti-malarial drugs. Ensemble simulations also suggest that climatic conditions have likely been less favourable to malaria transmission in Kericho in recent years.

Conclusions

Long-term changes in climatic conditions and non-linear changes in the mean duration of host’s infectivity are synergistically driving the increasing incidence of P. falciparum malaria in the Kenyan highlands. User-friendly, online-downloadable, open source mathematical tools, such as the one presented here, could improve decision-making processes of local and regional health authorities.