A49 Emerging rodent-borne viral pathogens in Italy: Overview of seroprevalence and genomic investigations

Rodents play a key role as reservoirs of many zoonotic pathogens which represent an emerging public health threat worldwide. Among these, Dobrava-Belgrade virus (DOBV) is the most pathogenic hantavirus in Europe with a case-fatality rate of up to 12 per cent, while Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) has a mortality rate below 1 per cent. Both viruses are predominantly transmitted to humans through the inhalation of infected particles in aerosolized urine, feces, or saliva that are shed in the environment by chronically infected hosts, such as the yellow-necked mouse Apodemus flavicollis. Although no human cases of DOBV or LCMV have been reported in the Province of Trento (northeastern Italy) thus far, in order to evaluate the human hazard for these viruses, the prevalence of antibodies to DOBV and LCMV has been monitored using a specific immunofluorescence assay test in a wild population of A. flavicollis since 2000. These investigations have shown that the two RNA viruses circulate silently in this species in the study area. In particular, a sudden increase (up to 12.5%) in DOBV seroprevalence was observed in this rodent species between 2010 and 2012. Several efforts have been undertaken to isolate these viruses and characterize their genomes, but it has not yet been possible to detect viral RNA from seropositive mice using traditional methods such as RT-PCR. Since RNA viruses are very diverse and often difficult to isolate, innovative molecular methods based on viral targeted enrichment and high-throughput sequencing have been applied. We intend to report on this long-term seroprevalence study and provide an overview of the molecular approaches adopted in the attempt to confirm the presence of these viruses, and identify which variants are circulating in the region, as well as their pathogenicity.

The role of heterogeneity on the invasion probability of mosquito-borne diseases in multi-host models

Heterogeneity in transmission and stochastic events can play a significant role in shaping the epidemic dynamics of vector-borne infections, especially in the initial phase of an outbreak. In this work, by using multi-type branching process methodologies, we assess how heterogeneities in transmission among a large number of host groups can affect the invasion probabilities of a mosquito-borne disease. We show with both analytical and numerical methods that heterogeneities in transmission can shape the invasion probabilities differently from how they affect the basic reproduction number (R0). In particular, we find that, while R0 always increases with the heterogeneity, the invasion probability after the introduction of infected hosts can decrease with the increase of transmission heterogeneity, even approaching zero when the number of host groups is very large. In addition, we show that the invasion probability via infected vectors is always larger than via infected hosts when heterogeneous transmission is sufficiently high. Our findings suggest that, for multi-species infections (e.g. West Nile fever and Rift Valley fever) or for single-species infections with patchy host distribution, the introduction of primary infected vectors may represent a higher risk for major outbreaks occurrence than introductions of infected hosts.

Effect of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. II: population and infection models

Tick-borne encephalitis is an emerging vector-borne zoonotic disease reported in several European and Asiatic countries with complex transmission routes that involve various vertebrate host species other than a tick vector. Understanding and quantifying the contribution of the different hosts involved in the TBE virus cycle is crucial in estimating the threshold conditions for virus emergence and spread. Some hosts, such as rodents, act both as feeding hosts for ticks and reservoirs of the infection. Other species, such as deer, provide important sources of blood for feeding ticks but they do not support TBE virus transmission, acting instead as dead-end (i.e., incompetent) hosts. Here, we introduce an eco-epidemiological model to explore the dynamics of tick populations and TBE virus infection in relation to the density of two key hosts. In particular, our aim is to validate and interpret in a robust theoretical framework the empirical findings regarding the effect of deer density on tick infestation on rodents and thus TBE virus occurrence from selected European foci. Model results show hump-shaped relationships between deer density and both feeding ticks on rodents and the basic reproduction number for TBE virus. This suggests that deer may act as tick amplifiers, but may also divert tick bites from competent hosts, thus diluting pathogen transmission. However, our model shows that the mechanism responsible for the dilution effect is more complex than the simple reduction of tick burden on competent hosts. Indeed, while the number of feeding ticks on rodents may increase with deer density, the proportion of blood meals on competent compared with incompetent hosts may decrease, triggering a decline in infection. As a consequence, using simply the number of ticks per rodent as a predictor of TBE transmission potential could be misleading if competent hosts share habitats with incompetent hosts.

Saturation deficit and deer density affect questing activity and local abundance of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodidae) in Italy

The wood tick Ixodes ricinus, one of the most common arthropod-borne disease vectors, is of increasing relevance for human and animal health in Europe. The aim of this study was to determine the relative contribution of several abiotic and biotic factors potentially affecting questing activity and local abundance of I. ricinus in Italy, considering the scale at which these factors interact with the host-seeking ticks. Within EDEN, a large-scale EU collaborative project on eco-epidemiology of vector-borne diseases, we collected questing ticks for three consecutive years using a standard protocol at eleven sites in the Italian Alps and Apennines. A total of 25 447 I. ricinus were collected. All sites showed the same annual pattern of tick activity (bimodal for nymphs and unimodal for larvae and adults), although the abundance of nymphs was statistically different between sites and years. A Generalized Linear Mixed Model and a Linear Mixed Model fitted to data for nymphs, showed that while the principal variables affecting the local abundance of questing ticks were saturation deficit (an index combining temperature and relative humidity) and red deer density, the most important variable affecting questing nymph activity was saturation deficit. As for the timing of seasonal emergence, we confirmed that the threshold temperature at this latitude for larvae is 10°C (mean maximum) while that for nymphs is 8°C.

Lyme borreliosis in Europe

Despite improvements in prevention, diagnosis and treatment, Lyme borreliosis (LB) is still the most common arthropod-borne disease in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, with risk of infection associated with occupation (e.g. forestry work) and certain outdoor recreational activities (e.g. mushroom collecting). In Europe, LB is caused by infection with one or more pathogenic European genospecies of the spirochaete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, mainly transmitted by the tick Ixodes ricinus. Recent surveys show that the overall prevalence of LB may be stabilising, but its geographical distribution is increasing. In addition, much remains to be discovered about the factors affecting genospecific prevalence, transmission and virulence, although avoidance of tick bite still appears to be the most efficient preventive measure. Uniform, European-wide surveillance programmes (particularly on a local scale) and standardisation of diagnostic tests and treatments are still urgently needed, especially in the light of climate change scenarios and land-use and socio-economic changes. Improved epidemiological knowledge will also aid development of more accurate risk prediction models for LB. Studies on the effects of biodiversity loss and ecosystem changes on LB emergence may identify new paradigms for the prevention and control of LB and other tick-borne diseases.

Modelling the spatial spread of H7N1 avian influenza virus among poultry farms in Italy

We analysed the between-farm transmission of the H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus that disrupted the Italian poultry production in the 1999-2000 epidemic with a SEIR model with a spatial transmission kernel, accounting for the containment measures actually undertaken. We found significant differences in susceptibility between species and a reduction in transmissibility after the first phase. We performed simulations to assess the effectiveness of the implemented and new control measures. The most effective measure was the ban on restocking. An earlier start of pre-emptive culling promotes eradication; restricted pre-emptive culling delays eradication but causes lower losses.

The role of sex in parasite dynamics: model simulations on transmission of Heligmosomoides polygyrus in populations of yellow-necked mice, Apodemus flavicollis

We investigated possible mechanisms that could cause sex-biased parasite transmission of the helminth Heligmosomoides polygyrus in its rodent host, Apodemus flavicollis, using a modelling approach. Two, not mutually exclusive, hypotheses were examined: that sex-biased parasite transmission is caused by differences in immunity that influence the success of free-living stages and/or is caused by sex differences in host behaviour and the dissemination of infective stages. Model simulations were compared with results from a field manipulation experiment of H. polygyrus in replicated populations of A. flavicollis. Simulations predicted the experimental field results, and both hypotheses explained the pattern observed. Transmission is male-biased if a male immune response increases fertility, hatching or survival of free-living stages. Alternatively, transmission is male-biased if their behavioural characteristics allow them to spread infective larvae in areas more frequently used by females. These results highlight that host sex is not only responsible for differences in parasite susceptibility, but may profoundly influence host-parasite interactions, resulting in a sex bias in parasite transmission.

[Ixodes ricinus, transmitted diseases and reservoirs]

The tick Ixodes ricinus has been recorded in most Italian regions especially in thermo-mesophilous woods and shrubby habitats where the relative humidity allow the tick to complete its 3 year developmental cycle, as predicted for the European climatic ranges. This tick acts both as vector and reservoir for a series of wildlife zoonotic pathogens, especially the agents of Lyme diseases, Tick borne encephalitis and Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis, which are emerging in most of Europe. To assess the spatial distribution of these pathogens and the infection risk for humans and animals within the territory of the Province of Trento, we carried out a long term study using a combination of eco-epidemiological surveys and mathematical modelling. An extensive tick collection with a GIS based habitat suitability analysis allowed us to identify the areas where tick occurs at various density. To identify the areas with higher infection risk, we estimated the values of R0 for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., TBE virus and Anaplasma phagocytophila under different ecological conditions. We assessed the infection prevalence in the vector and in the wildlife reservoir species that play a central role in the persistence of these infections, ie the small mammals A. flavicollis and C. glareolus. We also considered the double effect of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) which act as reservoir for A. phagocytophila but is an incompetent host for B. burgdorferi and TBE virus, thus reducing the infection prevalence in ticks of these last two pathogens. Infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophila in the vector was assessed by PCR screening 1212 I. ricinus nymphs collected by dragging in six main study areas during 2002. The mean infection prevalence recorded was 1.32% for B. burgdorferi s.l. and 9.84% for A. phagocytophila. Infection prevalence in nymphs with TBE virus, as assessed in a previous study was 0.03%. Infection prevalence in rodents was assessed by screening (with ELISA and PCR) tissues and blood samples collected from 367 rodent individuals trapped extensively during 2002 within 6 main study areas. A. flavicollis (N=238) was found to be infected with all three pathogens investigated, with infection prevalence ranging from 3.3% for TBE virus to 11.7% for A. phagocytophila, and 16.6% with B. burgdorferi s.l. C. glareolus (N=108) showed an infection prevalence of 6.5% with A. phagocytophila and 12.7% with B. burgdorferi s.l., while no individuals were infected with TBE virus. We also screened 98 spleen samples collected from roe deer with PCR, resulting in a mean prevalence of infection with A. phagocytophila of 19.8%. Using a deterministic model we explored the condition for diseases persistence under different rodent and roe deer densities. R0 values resulted largely above 1 for B. burgdorferi s.l. in the vast majority of the areas classified as suitable for I. ricinus occurrence in Trentino, while the condition for TBE persistence appeared to be more restricted by a combination of climatic condition and host densities.

Tick-borne encephalitis virus in northern Italy: molecular analysis, relationships with density and seasonal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus

Ixodes ricinus ticks were collected from dragging vegetation and from shot roe deer in the province of Trento and Belluno in northern Italy. Ticks were pooled for analyses and from 1060 pools of ticks collected in the province of Belluno and 12390 tick samples collected in Trentino, four proved positive by immunofluorescence microscopy using a tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)-specific antiserum. The identity of the virus isolates was determined by RT-PCR cycle sequencing and they were all found to be closely similar (> 98% nucleotide identity) to typical western European TBE complex viruses as found in Austria. The isolates from Trentino differed from the Neudorfl strain of western European TBE virus at eight nucleotide positions but as these nucleotide substitutions were all synonymous, there were no amino acid changes. These results imply that the virus isolates in Trentino have changed slightly from the typical European strains isolated in nearby Austria. The abundance of questing ticks and ticks feeding on roe deer was greater in TBE positive hunting districts than in hunting districts where TBE complex viruses were only probable or believed to be absent. In TBE positive and probable districts synchrony in the seasonal dynamics of larvae and nymphs of L. ricinus was observed. This study provides evidence to suggest that roe deer may have an important role to play in the maintenance of tick density and in the persistence of TBE virus.

Intensity of nematode infections in cyclic and non-cyclic rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis) populations

Populations of rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis), in the Trentino province of Italy, exhibit cyclic fluctuations in abundance associated with relatively dry habitat. One of the hypothesis to explain these cycles is that survival of some free living parasitic stages and rates of infection are greater in these areas leading to higher parasite burden. This hypothesis was examined by investigating the intensity of parasite infection in cyclic and non cyclic rock partridge populations. Analyses of 87 intestine samples collected from shot rock partridges during 1994 and 1995 identified 8 species of helminths parasites: Ascaridia compar (P = 33.33%; I = 9.28 +/- 1.78), Heterakis tenuicauda (P = 19.54%; I = 10.29 +/- 4.58), Heterakis gallinarum (P = 1.15%; I = 1.0 +/- 0.0), Heterakis altaica (P = 1.15%; I = 17 +/- 0.0), Aonchoteca caudinflata (P = 6.89; I = 2.17 +/- 0.65), Postharmostomum commutatum (P = 5.75; I = 7.0 +/- 3.48), Brachylaema fuscata (P = 1.15; I = 7.0 +/- 0.0), Platynosomum alectoris (P = 2.29; I = 5.5 +/- 1.5). Cestoda, recorded with a prevalence of 5.75, were not identified to species level. A. compar and H. tenuicauda were prevalent in the rock partridge populations and there was no positive association between these species. Intensity of infection in both species was not influenced by host age, sex or year of study but levels of infection with A. compar burdens were significantly greater in cyclic populations than in non cyclic populations and there was a tendency for H. tenuicauda to be greater in cyclic populations. There was no negative relationship between intensity of infection with A. compar or H. tenuicauda and host body mass. These data provide some support for the hypothesis that these parasites may play a role in generating rock partridge population cycles.

Analysis of model for macroparasitic infection with variable aggregation and clumped infections

A model for macroparasitic infection with variable aggregation i considered. The starting point is an immigration-and-death process for parasites within a host, as in [3]; it is assumed however that infections will normally occur with several larvae at the same time. Starting from here, a four-dimensional, where free-living larvae are explicitly considered, and a three-dimensional model are obtained with same methods used in [26]. The equilibria of these models are found, their stability is discussed, as well as some qualitative features. It has been found that the assumption of "clumped" infections may have dramatic effects on the aggregation exhibited by these models. Infections with several larvae at the same time also increases the stability of the endemic equilibria of these models, and makes the occurrence of subcritical bifurcations (and consequently multiple equilibria) slightly more likely. The results of the low-dimensional model have also been compared to numerical simulations of the infinite system that describes the immigration-and-death process. It appears that the results of the systems are, by and large, in close correspondence, except for a parameter region where the four-dimensional model exhibits unusual properties, such as the occurrence of multiple disease-free equilibria, that do not appear to be shared by the infinite system.

A survey to identify the important macroparasites of rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis) in Trentino, Italy

A preliminary survey of the intestinal helminth community of rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis) was undertaken in the Italian province of Trentino where the host population exhibits cyclic fluctuations in abundance. Six helminth species were recorded from 38 rock partridge intestines collected during the hunting season between October and November 1994. Nematoda were the most prevalent (53%) with lower prevalence of Trematoda (11%) and Cestoda (8%). Ascaridia compar (Schrank, 1790) and Heterakis tenuicauda Linstow, 1883, were identified as the component species (each with prevalence > 10%) in the helminth intestinal community of rock partridge in Trentino. Both of these species exhibit an aggregated distribution.