Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.

Globalization facilitates the spread of invasive alien species, while environmental change can ease invasion. Here, Early et al. identify vulnerable regions globally and evaluate capacity in vulnerable countries to prevent invasions arising from sources such as air travel, horticulture, and pet trade.

A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination

Background. Pollinators, which provide the agriculturally and ecologically essential service of pollination, are under threat at a global scale. Habitat loss and homogenisation, pesticides, parasites and pathogens, invasive species, and climate change have been identified as past and current threats to pollinators. Actions to mitigate these threats, e.g., agri-environment schemes and pesticide-use moratoriums, exist, but have largely been applied post-hoc. However, future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines.

Methods.Using a horizon scanning approach we identified issues that are likely to impact pollinators, either positively or negatively, over the coming three decades.

Results.Our analysis highlights six high priority, and nine secondary issues. High priorities are: (1) corporate control of global agriculture, (2) novel systemic pesticides, (3) novel RNA viruses, (4) the development of new managed pollinators, (5) more frequent heatwaves and drought under climate change, and (6) the potential positive impact of reduced chemical use on pollinators in non-agricultural settings.

Discussion. While current pollinator management approaches are largely driven by mitigating past impacts, we present opportunities for pre-emptive practice, legislation, and policy to sustainably manage pollinators for future generations.

Climate change and biological invasions: evidence, expectations, and response options

A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human-assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost-effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population-level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape-level processes (e.g. dispersal, land-use change, host/habitat distribution, non-climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change.

Assessing exemptions under the ballast water management convention: preclude the Trojan horse

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) Ballast Water Management Convention (BWMC) is a powerful instrument aimed at reducing spread of harmful aquatic organisms and pathogens (HAOPs). As BWMC is expected to enter into force soon, shipping companies will start seeking exemptions for ballast water management in accordance with BWMC Regulation A-4. However, without scientifically robust risk assessment (RA) and consistent rules, the exemptions may introduce a new form of risk within a convention generally designed to reduce risks. This paper describes an adaptive system for granting exemptions, consisting of six major components: target species selection procedure, port-to-port RA, monitoring, information support, administrative decision and review process. The system is based on key principles defined in the IMO guidelines for RA and is designed to continuously accumulate evolving experience on granting exemptions. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the control of the spread of HAOPs, without placing an unnecessary burden on the shipping industry.

Unveiling the status of alien animals in the arid zone of Asia

Biological invasion is one of the most threatening factors for biodiversity conservation. Lacking information on alien species in certain regions of the world hampers a balanced understanding of invasion processes and efficient data exchange among stakeholders. Current knowledge gaps are in need of urgent concern. We therefore conducted a review on alien animals in Xinjiang, an unknown region of invasion ecology. Xinjiang lies in the heartland of the Asian continent, covering an area of 1,664,900 km². In the past 64 years, 128 alien animal species were recorded in this region, 39% of which became invasive and led to loss of native biodiversity. Most of these species were introduced through diversification of local agriculture and aquaculture. This process was aggravated by improving transportation and flourishing trade. Multiple linear regression models and correlation analysis were run for explaining influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on status of alien animals: economically developed areas with abundant water resource, oases in particular, were prone to be hotspots of alien animal species in this arid and semi-arid region. This study also revealed that taxonomically biased and lagged research were critical problems that impeded studies on biological invasions in Xinjiang, and proposed feasible solutions.

A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016

This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.

Ten years of invasion: Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) in Britain

1. Harmonia axyridis was first recorded in Britain in 2004. Two subsequent earlier records were received from 2003. 2. The UK Ladybird Survey, a citizen science initiative involving online recording, was launched in 2005 to encourage people across Britain to track the spread of H. axyridis. Tens of thousands of people have provided records of H. axyridis and other species of ladybirds, creating an invaluable dataset for large-scale and long-term research. Declines in the distribution of seven (of eight assessed) native species of ladybird have been demonstrated, and correlated with the arrival of H. axyridis, using the records collated through the UK Ladybird Survey. 3. Experimental research and field surveys have also contributed to our understanding of the ecology of H. axyridis and particularly the process of invasion. Harmonia axyridis arrived in Britain through dispersal and introduction events from regions in which it was deliberately released as a biological control agent. The rapid spread of this species has been attributed to its high natural dispersal capability by means of both flight and anthropogenic transport. A number of factors have contributed to the successful establishment and indeed dominance of this polymorphic species within aphidophagous guilds, including high reproductive capacity, intra-guild predation, eurytopic nature, high resistance to natural enemies within the invaded range, and potentially phenotypic plasticity. 4. The global invasion by H. axyridis and subsequent research on this species has contributed to the general understanding of biological invasions.

Patterns of trophic niche divergence between invasive and native fishes in wild communities are predictable from mesocosm studies

Ecological theory attempts to predict how impacts for native species arise from biological invasions. A fundamental question centres on the feeding interactions of invasive and native species: whether invasion will result in increased interspecific competition, which would result in negative consequences for the competing species, or trophic niche divergence, which would facilitate the invader's integration into the community and their coexistence with native species.

Here, the feeding interactions of a highly invasive fish, topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva, with three native and functionally similar fishes were studied to determine whether patterns of either niche overlap or divergence detected in mesocosm experiments were apparent between the species at larger spatial scales. Using stable isotope analysis, their feeding relationships were assessed initially in the mesocosms (1000 L) and then in small ponds (<400 m²) and large ponds (>600 m²).

In the mesocosms, a consistent pattern of trophic niche divergence was evident between the sympatric fishes, with niches shifting further apart in isotopic space than suggested in allopatry, revealing that sharing of food resources was limited. Sympatric P. parva also had a smaller niche than their allopatric populations.

In eight small ponds where P. parva had coexisted for several years with at least one of the fish species used in the mesocosms, strong patterns of niche differentiation were also apparent, with P. parva always at a lower trophic position than the other fishes, as also occurred in the mesocosms. Where these fishes were sympatric within more complex fish communities in the large ponds, similar patterns were also apparent, with strong evidence of trophic niche differentiation.

Aspects of the ecological impacts of P. parva invasion for native communities in larger ponds were consistent with those in the mesocosm experiments. Their invasion resulted in divergence in trophic niches, partly due to their reduced niche widths when in sympatry with other species, facilitating their coexistence in invaded ecosystems. Our study highlights the utility of controlled mesocosm studies for predicting the trophic relationships that can develop from introductions of non‐native species into more complex ecosystems and at larger spatial scales.

Parasites and biological invasions: parallels, interactions, and control

Species distributions are changing at an unprecedented rate owing to human activity. We examine how two key processes of redistribution - biological invasion and disease emergence - are interlinked. There are many parallels between invasion and emergence processes, and invasions can drive the spread of new diseases to wildlife. We examine the potential impacts of invasion and disease emergence, and discuss how these threats can be countered, focusing on biosecurity. In contrast with international policy on emerging diseases of humans and managed species, policy on invasive species and parasites of wildlife is fragmented, and the lack of international cooperation encourages individual parties to minimize their input into control. We call for international policy that acknowledges the strong links between emerging diseases and invasion risk.