Ecological thresholds at the savanna-forest boundary: how plant traits, resources and fire govern the distribution of tropical biomes

Altered ignition catchments threaten a hyperdiverse fire-dependent ecosystem

Human activities affect fire in many ways, often unintentionally or with considerable time-lags before they manifest themselves. Anticipating these changes is critical, so that insidious impacts on ecosystems, their biodiversity and associated goods and services can be avoided, mitigated or managed. Here we explore the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on fire and biodiversity in adjacent ecosystems on the hyperdiverse Cape Peninsula, South Africa. We develop a conceptual framework based on the notion of an ignition catchment, or the spatial extent and temporal range where an ignition is likely to result in a site burning. We apply this concept using fire models to estimate spatial changes in burn probability between historical and current land cover. This change layer was used to predict the observed record of fires and forest encroachment into fire-dependent Fynbos ecosystems in Table Mountain National Park. Urban expansion has created anthropogenic fire shadows that are modifying fire return intervals, facilitating a state shift to low-diversity, non-flammable forest at the expense of hyperdiverse, flammable Fynbos ecosystems. Despite occurring in a conservation area, these ecosystems are undergoing a hidden collapse and desperately require management intervention. Anthropogenic fire shadows can be caused by many human activities and are likely to be a universal phenomenon, not only contributing to the observed global decline in fire activity but also causing extreme fires in ecosystems where there is no shift to a less flammable state and flammable fuels accumulate. The ignition catchment framework is highly flexible and allows detection or prediction of changes in the fire regime, the threat this poses for ecosystems or fire risk and areas where management interventions and/or monitoring are required. Identifying anthropogenic impacts on ignition catchments is key for both understanding global impacts of humans on fire and guiding management of human-altered landscapes for desirable outcomes.

Bark in Woody Plants: Understanding the Diversity of a Multifunctional Structure

Most biological structures carry out multiple functions. Focusing on only one function to make adaptive inferences overlooks that manifold selection pressures and tradeoffs shape the characteristics of a multifunctional structure. Focusing on single functions can only lead to a partial picture of the causes underlying diversity and the evolutionary origin of the structure in question. I illustrate this discussion using bark as a study case. Bark comprises all the tissues surrounding the xylem in woody plants. Broadly, bark includes an inner and mostly living region and an outer, dead one. Of all plant structures, bark has the most complex anatomical structure and ontogenetic origin involving two (and often three) different meristems. Traditionally, the wide diversity in bark traits, mainly bark thickness, has been interpreted as the result of the selective pressures imposed by fire regime. However, recent research has shown that explanations based on fire regime cannot account for salient patterns of bark variation globally including the very strong inner bark thickness-stem diameter scaling, which is likely due to metabolic needs, and the very high intracommunity variation in total, inner, and outer bark thickness, and in inner:outer proportions. Moreover, explanations based on fire disregard that in addition to fire protection, bark carries out several other crucial functions for plants including translocation of photosynthates; storage of starch, soluble sugars, water, and other compounds; protection from herbivores, pathogens, and high temperatures; wound closure, as well as mechanical support, photosynthesis, and likely being involved in xylem embolism repair. All these functions are crucial for plant performance and are involved in synergistic (e.g., storage of water and insulation) and trade-off relationships (e.g., protection from fire vs photosynthetic activity). Focusing on only one of these functions, protection from fire has provided an incomplete picture of the selective forces shaping bark diversity and has severely hindered our incipient understanding of the functional ecology of this crucial region of woody stems. Applying a multifunctional perspective to the study of bark will allow us to address why we observe such high intracommunity variation in bark traits, why some bark trait combinations are ontogenetically impossible or penalized by selection, how bark is coordinated functionally with other plant parts, and as a result, to understand how bark contributes to the vast diversity of plant ecological strategies across the globe.

The role of bud protection and bark density in frost resistance of savanna trees

Frost events occur with a significant frequency in savannas of the Southern Hemisphere, especially in the Cerrados of Brazil. One of the main strategies to deal with such events is to invest in thick and dense bark, which can insulate internal branch tissues and protect buds, essential to ensure resprouting if frost damage causes plant canopy die-back. Such strategies may be fundamental to determine the persistence of savanna species in regions where low temperatures and frost events are recurrent. Here we describe bud protection and bark strategies of 53 woody species growing in typical savanna vegetation of central Brazil. In addition, we used an experimental approach exposing branches to 0 °C to measure temperature variation in internal branch tissue and test its relationship to bud protection and bark properties. We found that the majority of species (69%) showed medium to high bud protection against extreme temperatures; however, the degree of bud protection was not clearly related to bark properties, such as bark thickness and density. Bark density is a fundamental trait in determining protection against low temperatures (0 °C), since species with low bark density showed lower temperature variation in their internal branch tissues, independently of the bud protection degree. Bark properties and bud protection are two different (albeit related) strategies for the protection and persistence of savanna trees under extreme environmental temperatures and can explain ecological observations related to savanna tree responses after frost events.

Padrões espaciais da vegetação lenhosa associados ao processo de expansão da Floresta com Araucaria sobre Campos excluídos de manejo

O processo de expansão florestal tem sido observado em regiões de mosaicos de campo-floresta no Sul do Brasil, especialmente em campos excluídos de fogo e pastejo. Outros fatores influenciam esse processo, porém a magnitude ainda permanece pouco compreendida. Neste estudo, avaliamos os padrões da vegetação lenhosa estabelecida num campo excluído de manejo por 34 anos, relacionando-os com variáveis de solo e espaço. Estabelecemos 110 parcelas (113 m2 cada) de forma sistemática sobre áreas mapeadas como campos em 1985, na Estação Ecológica de Aracuri, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Foram amostrados todos os indivíduos lenhosos e variáveis de solo. Análises de ordenação e de partição da variância da composição de espécies nos componentes solo, espaço, e solo estruturado no espaço foram empregadas. Os padrões da vegetação foram melhor explicados pelo espaço, principalmente a distância da área fonte florestal. Comunidades mais próximas da antiga borda florestal são caracterizadas por mais espécies e indivíduos com dispersão zoocórica. Áreas mais distantes têm predomínio de arbustos campestres (Baccharis uncinella) e poucas arbóreas se estabeleceram. O solo apresentou baixa explicação (5%), porém as condições modificam-se conforme o desenvolvimento florestal avança. Concluímos que a expansão florestal em área excluída de distúrbios tem forte associação com o espaço – a distância de áreas fonte, e que os fatores edáficos pouco contribuem com a magnitude do avanço sobre o campo.

Does a tradeoff between trait plasticity and resource conservatism contribute to the maintenance of alternative stable states?

Phenotypic plasticity facilitates species persistence across resource gradients but may be limited in low-resource environments requiring resource conservation. We investigated the tradeoff between trait plasticity and resource conservatism across a biome boundary characterized by high turnover in nutrient and light availability, and whether this contributes to the maintenance of alternative stable states. Differences in plasticity were determined by comparing species' leaf and foliar nutritional trait responses to light, represented by leaf area index (LAI), and soil nutrient availability across forest-shrubland boundaries in South Africa. Although forest had higher LAI and soil nutrient availability than shrubland, forest species experienced greater resource variation. With increasing LAI and nutrient availability, forest species increased their leaf size, specific leaf area and leaf area/stem length, and decreased their foliar [N] and [K]. Although these responses are indicative of plasticity, shrubland species appeared to lack plasticity as evidenced by limited trait variation with environmental heterogeneity. Inhabiting diverse light environments imposed by forests probably selects for plasticity, whereas light-saturated, fire-prone, nutrient-poor environments that select for conservative leaf traits and below-ground investments compromise plasticity in shrubland species. This pattern suggests a tradeoff between trait plasticity and resource conservatism, which may support the stability of alternative vegetation states.

Plant traits linked to field-scale flammability metrics in prescribed burns in Eucalyptus forest

Vegetation is a key determinant of wildfire behaviour at field scales as it functions as fuel. Past studies in the laboratory show that plant flammability, the ability of plants to ignite and maintain combustion, is a function of their traits. However, the way the traits of individual plants combine in a vegetation community to affect field flammability has received little attention. This study aims to bridge the gap between the laboratory and field by linking plant traits to metrics of field-scale flammability. Across three prescribed burns, in Eucalyptus-dominated damp and dry forest, we measured pre-burn plant species abundance and post-burn field flammability metrics (percentage area burnt, char and scorch height). For understory species with dominant cover-abundance, we measured nine traits that had been demonstrated to influence flammability in the laboratory. We used fourth-corner ordination to evaluate covariation between the plant traits, species abundance and flammability. We found that several traits covaried at the species level. In some instances, these traits (e.g. specific leaf area and bulk density) could have cumulative effects on the flammability of a species while in other instances (e.g. moisture and specific leaf area) they may have counteractive effects, assuming trait effects on flammability are akin to previous research. At field scales, species with similar traits tended to co-occur, suggesting that the effects of individual traits accumulate within a plant community. Fourth-corner analyses found the trait-field flammability relationship to be statistically significant. Traits significantly associated with increasing field flammability metrics were: bulk density (negatively associated) and hydrocarbon quantity, specific leaf area and surface area to volume ratio (all positively associated). Our study demonstrates that some traits known to influence flammability in the laboratory can be associated with field-scale flammability metrics. Further research is needed to isolate the contributions of individual traits to understand how species composition drives forest flammability.

Fire and legume germination in a tropical savanna: ecological and historical factors

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In many flammable ecosystems, physically dormant seeds show dormancy-break patterns tied to fire, but the link between heat shock and germination in the tropical savannas of Africa and South America remains controversial. Seed heat tolerance is important, preventing seed mortality during fire passage, and is usually predicted by seed traits. This study investigated the role of fire frequency (ecological effects) and seed traits through phylogenetic comparison (historical effects), in determining post-fire germination and seed mortality in legume species of the Cerrado, a tropical savanna-forest mosaic.

METHODS

Seeds of 46 legume species were collected from three vegetation types (grassy savannas, woody savannas and forests) with different fire frequencies. Heat shock experiments (100 °C for 1 min; 100 °C for 3 min; 200 °C for 1 min) were then performed, followed by germination and seed viability tests. Principal component analysis, generalized linear mixed models and phylogenetic comparisons were used in data analyses.

KEY RESULTS

Heat shocks had little effect on germination, but seed mortality was variable across treatments and species. Seed mortality was lowest under the 100 °C 1 min treatment, and significantly higher under 100 °C 3 min and 200 °C 1 min; larger seed mass decreased seed mortality, especially at 200 °C. Tree species in Detarioideae had the largest seeds and were unaffected by heat. Small-seeded species (mostly shrubs from grassy savannas) were relatively sensitive to the hottest treatment. Nevertheless, the presence of physical dormancy helped to avoid seed mortality in small-seeded species under the hottest treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical dormancy-break is not tied to fire in the Cerrado mosaic. Heat tolerance appears in both forest and savanna species and is predicted by seed traits (seed mass and physical dormancy), which might have helped forest lineages to colonize the savannas. The results show seed fire responses are better explained by historical than ecological factors in the Cerrado, contrasting with different fire-prone ecosystems throughout the world.

How Does Water Availability Affect the Allocation to Bark in a Mediterranean Conifer?

Bark thickness is a key structural feature in woody plants in the protection against fire. We used 19 provenances of Pinus halepensis, an obligate-seeder species, in a replicated common garden at two environments contrasting in water availability to assess the interacting effects of site environment and population in the relative allocation to bark, expecting lower allocation at the drier site. Secondly, given the average fire frequency, we analyzed whether trees reached the critical absolute thickness soon enough for population persistence via aerial seed bank. Our analyses indicated that trees at the moister site allocated a rather fixed quantity of resources independent of tree size, and almost all populations reached critical absolute bark thickness to eventually survive fire. In contrast, at the drier site allocation to bark reduced with tree size, and most populations did not reach the critical bark thickness. Populations from areas with higher fire frequency had thicker basal bark, while those from areas with severe droughts and short vegetative periods, had thinner bark. In conclusion, drought-stressed trees have a higher risk to die from fires before achieving reproduction and building a sufficient aerial seed bank.

Planting position and shade enhance native seedling performance in forest restoration for an endangered malagasy plant

The critically endangered tree Schizolaena tampoketsana is confined to a few diminished and degraded forest fragments on the Malagasy highlands. This habitat is vulnerable to loss due to frequent fires in the surrounding grassland that threaten to spread into the forest. One of these fragments is the focus a conservation project and here the managers aim to conserve S. tampoketsana by restoring its forest habitat to its former extent as evidenced by remnant woody plants. To inform this activity the survival and early-stage growth of seedlings of four locally native tree species were compared under contrasting conditions of proximity to the remaining forest and shade. After 12 months, seedlings of three species (Baronia taratana, Eugenia pluricymosa, Uapaca densifolia) survived better and experienced improved growth in height in grassland close to the existing forest rather than distant from it, and two survived better with shade rather than unshaded. A number of mechanisms could explain these results including reduced exposure to desiccating sunlight and winds and better soil and greater water availability close to the forest. The seedlings of one species (Nuxia capitata) survived well under all conditions. This study suggests that reforestation in these dry highlands is most feasible adjacent to remnant forest fragments and in microhabitats that minimize water loss, though young plants of some tree species may be capable of surviving in harsher conditions.

The prevalence of nonlinearity and detection of ecological breakpoints across a land use gradient in streams

Human activities can alter aquatic ecosystems through the input of nutrients and carbon, but there is increasing evidence that these pressures induce nonlinear ecological responses. Nonlinear relationships can contain breakpoints where there is an unexpected change in an ecological response to an environmental driver, which may result in ecological regime shifts. We investigated the occurrence of nonlinearity and breakpoints in relationships between total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), and total dissolved carbon (DOC) concentrations and ecological responses in streams with varying land uses. We calculated breakpoints using piecewise regression, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov (2DKS), and significant zero crossings (SiZer) methods. We found nonlinearity was common, occurring in half of all analyses, with some evidence of multiple breakpoints. Linearity, by contrast, occurred in less than 14% of cases, on average. Breakpoints were related to land use gradients, with 34–43% agricultural cover associated with DOC and TDN breakpoints, and 15% wetland and 9.5% urban land associated with DOC and nutrient breakpoints, respectively. While these breakpoints are likely specific to our study area, our study contributes to the growing literature of the prevalence and location of ecological breakpoints in streams, providing watershed managers potential criteria for catchment land use thresholds.

Isotopic variance among plant lipid homologues correlates with biodiversity patterns of their source communities

Plant diversity is important to human welfare worldwide, and this importance is exemplified in subtropical and tropical [(sub)tropical] African savannahs where regional biodiversity enhances the sustaining provision of basic ecosystem services available to millions of residents. Yet, there is a critical lack of knowledge about how savannahs respond to climate change. Here, we report the relationships between savannah vegetation structure, species richness, and bioclimatic variables as recorded by plant biochemical fossils, called biomarkers. Our analyses reveal that the stable carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C) of discrete sedimentary plant biomarkers reflects vegetation structure, but the isotopic range among plant biomarkers–which we call LEaf Wax Isotopic Spread (LEWIS)–reflects species richness. Analyses of individual biomarker δ¹³C values and LEWIS for downcore sediments recovered from southeast Africa reveal that the region’s species richness mirrored trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (pCO₂) throughout the last 25,000 years. This suggests that increasing pCO₂ levels during post-industrialization may prompt future declines in regional biodiversity (1–10 species per unit CO₂ p.p.m.v.) through imminent habitat loss or extinction.

Variation in vegetation cover and seedling performance of tree species in a forest-savanna ecotone

Differential tree seedling recruitment across forest-savanna ecotones is poorly understood, but hypothesized to be influenced by vegetation cover and associated factors. In a 3-y-long field transplant experiment in the forest-savanna ecotone of Ghana, we assessed performance and root allocation of 864 seedlings for two forest (Khaya ivorensis and Terminalia superba) and two savanna (Khaya senegalensis and Terminalia macroptera) species in savanna woodland, closed-woodland and forest. Herbaceous vegetation biomass was significantly higher in savanna woodland (1.0 ± 0.4 kg m−2 vs 0.2 ± 0.1 kg m−2 in forest) and hence expected fire intensities, while some soil properties were improved in forest. Regardless, seedling survival declined significantly in the first-year dry-season for all species with huge declines for the forest species (50% vs 6% for Khaya and 16% vs 2% for Terminalia) by year 2. After 3 y, only savanna species survived in savanna woodland. However, best performance for savanna Khaya was in forest, but in savanna woodland for savanna Terminalia which also had the highest biomass fraction (0.8 ± 0.1 g g−1 vs 0.6 ± 0.1 g g−1 and 0.4 ± 0.1 g g−1) and starch concentration (27% ± 10% vs 15% ± 7% and 10% ± 4%) in roots relative to savanna and forest Khaya respectively. Our results demonstrate that tree cover variation has species-specific effects on tree seedling recruitment which is related to root storage functions.

Resilience of tropical tree cover: The roles of climate, fire, and herbivory

Fires and herbivores shape tropical vegetation structure, but their effects on the stability of tree cover in different climates remain elusive. Here, we integrate empirical and theoretical approaches to determine the effects of climate on fire- and herbivore-driven forest-savanna shifts. We analyzed time series of remotely sensed tree cover and fire observations with estimates of herbivore pressure across the tropics to quantify the fire-tree cover and herbivore-tree cover feedbacks along climatic gradients. From these empirical results, we developed a spatially explicit, stochastic fire-vegetation model that accounts for herbivore pressure. We find emergent alternative stable states in tree cover with hysteresis across rainfall conditions. Whereas the herbivore-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover below 1,100 mm mean annual rainfall, the fire-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover at higher rainfall levels. Interestingly, the rainfall range where fire-driven alternative vegetation states can be found depends strongly on rainfall variability. Both higher seasonal and interannual variability in rainfall increase fire frequency, but only seasonality expands the distribution of fire-maintained savannas into wetter climates. The strength of the fire-tree cover feedback depends on the spatial configuration of tree cover: Landscapes with clustered low tree-cover areas are more susceptible to cross a tipping point of fire-driven forest loss than landscapes with scattered deforested patches. Our study shows how feedbacks involving fire, herbivores, and the spatial structure of tree cover explain the resilience of tree cover across climates.

Human impacts in African savannas are mediated by plant functional traits

Tropical savannas have a ground cover dominated by C₄ grasses, with fire and herbivory constraining woody cover below a rainfall-based potential. The savanna biome covers 50% of the African continent, encompassing diverse ecosystems that include densely wooded Miombo woodlands and Serengeti grasslands with scattered trees. African savannas provide water, grazing and browsing, food and fuel for tens of millions of people, and have a unique biodiversity that supports wildlife tourism. However, human impacts are causing widespread and accelerating degradation of savannas. The primary threats are land cover-change and transformation, landscape fragmentation that disrupts herbivore communities and fire regimes, climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂ . The interactions among these threats are poorly understood, with unknown consequences for ecosystem health and human livelihoods. We argue that the unique combinations of plant functional traits characterizing the major floristic assemblages of African savannas make them differentially susceptible and resilient to anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem change. Research must address how this functional diversity among African savannas differentially influences their vulnerability to global change and elucidate the mechanisms responsible. This knowledge will permit appropriate management strategies to be developed to maintain ecosystem integrity, biodiversity and livelihoods.

Resilience and restoration of tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and grassy woodlands

Despite growing recognition of the conservation values of grassy biomes, our understanding of how to maintain and restore biodiverse tropical grasslands (including savannas and open-canopy grassy woodlands) remains limited. To incorporate grasslands into large-scale restoration efforts, we synthesised existing ecological knowledge of tropical grassland resilience and approaches to plant community restoration. Tropical grassland plant communities are resilient to, and often dependent on, the endogenous disturbances with which they evolved - frequent fires and native megafaunal herbivory. In stark contrast, tropical grasslands are extremely vulnerable to human-caused exogenous disturbances, particularly those that alter soils and destroy belowground biomass (e.g. tillage agriculture, surface mining); tropical grassland restoration after severe soil disturbances is expensive and rarely achieves management targets. Where grasslands have been degraded by altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire exclusion), exotic plant invasions, or afforestation, restoration efforts can recreate vegetation structure (i.e. historical tree density and herbaceous ground cover), but species-diverse plant communities, including endemic species, are slow to recover. Complicating plant-community restoration efforts, many tropical grassland species, particularly those that invest in underground storage organs, are difficult to propagate and re-establish. To guide restoration decisions, we draw on the old-growth grassland concept, the novel ecosystem concept, and theory regarding tree cover along resource gradients in savannas to propose a conceptual framework that classifies tropical grasslands into three broad ecosystem states. These states are: (1) old-growth grasslands (i.e. ancient, biodiverse grassy ecosystems), where management should focus on the maintenance of disturbance regimes; (2) hybrid grasslands, where restoration should emphasise a return towards the old-growth state; and (3) novel ecosystems, where the magnitude of environmental change (i.e. a shift to an alternative ecosystem state) or the socioecological context preclude a return to historical conditions.

Social tipping points in animal societies

Animal social groups are complex systems that are likely to exhibit tipping points-which are defined as drastic shifts in the dynamics of systems that arise from small changes in environmental conditions-yet this concept has not been carefully applied to these systems. Here, we summarize the concepts behind tipping points and describe instances in which they are likely to occur in animal societies. We also offer ways in which the study of social tipping points can open up new lines of inquiry in behavioural ecology and generate novel questions, methods, and approaches in animal behaviour and other fields, including community and ecosystem ecology. While some behaviours of living systems are hard to predict, we argue that probing tipping points across animal societies and across tiers of biological organization-populations, communities, ecosystems-may help to reveal principles that transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries.

Remotely sensed canopy height reveals three pantropical ecosystem states

Although canopy height has long been a focus of interest in ecology, it has remained difficult to study at large spatial scales. Recently, satellite-borne LiDAR equipment produced the first systematic high resolution maps of vegetation height worldwide. Here we show that this new resource reveals three marked modes in tropical canopy height ~40, ~12, and ~2 m corresponding to forest, savanna, and treeless landscapes. The distribution of these modes is consistent with the often hypothesized forest-savanna bistability and suggests that both states can be stable in areas with a mean annual precipitation between ~1,500  and ~2,000 mm. Although the canopy height states correspond largely to the much discussed tree cover states, there are differences, too. For instance, there are places with savanna-like sparse tree cover that have a forest-like high canopy, suggesting that rather than true savanna, those are thinned relicts of forest. This illustrates how complementary sets of remotely sensed indicators may provide increasingly sophisticated ways to study ecological phenomena at a global scale.

Recovery of Functional Diversity Following Shifting Cultivation in Tropical Monsoon Forests

The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is an important issue in ecology. Plant functional traits and their diversity are key determinants of ecosystem function in changing environments. Understanding the successional dynamics of functional features in forest ecosystems is a first step to their sustainable management. In this study, we tested the changes in functional community composition with succession in tropical monsoon forests in Xishuangbanna, China. We sampled 33 plots at three successional stages—~40-year-old secondary forests, ~60-year-old secondary forests, and old growth forests—following the abandonment of the shifting cultivation land. Community-level functional traits were calculated based on measurements of nine functional traits for 135 woody plant species. The results show that the community structures and species composition of the old-growth forests were significantly different to those of the secondary stands. The species diversity, including species richness (S), the Shannon–Weaver index (H), and Pielou’s evenness (J), significantly increased during the recovery process after shifting cultivation. The seven studied leaf functional traits (deciduousness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content, leaf phosphorus content, leaf potassium content and leaf carbon content) changed from conservative to acquisitive syndromes during the recovery process, whereas wood density showed the opposite pattern, and seed mass showed no significant change, suggesting that leaf traits are more sensitive to environmental changes than wood or seed traits. The functional richness increased during the recovery process, whereas the functional evenness and divergence had the highest values in the 60-year-old secondary communities. Soil nutrients significantly influenced functional traits, but their effects on functional diversity were less obvious during the secondary succession after shifting cultivation. Our study indicates that the recovery of tropical monsoon forests is rather slow; secondary stands recover far less than the old growth stands in terms of community structure and species and functional diversity, even after about half a century of recovery, highlighting the importance of the conservation of old growth tropical monsoon forest ecosystems.

Predicting tipping points of dynamical systems during a period-doubling route to chaos

Classical indicators of tipping points have limitations when they are applied to an ecological and a biological model. For example, they cannot correctly predict tipping points during a period-doubling route to chaos. To counter this limitation, we here try to modify four well-known indicators of tipping points, namely the autocorrelation function, the variance, the kurtosis, and the skewness. In particular, our proposed modification has two steps. First, the dynamic of the considered system is estimated using its time-series. Second, the original time-series is divided into some sub-time-series. In other words, we separate the time-series into different period-components. Then, the four different tipping point indicators are applied to the extracted sub-time-series. We test our approach on an ecological model that describes the logistic growth of populations and on an attention-deficit-disorder model. Both models show different tipping points in a period-doubling route to chaos, and our approach yields excellent results in predicting these tipping points.

Steal the light: shade vs fire adapted vegetation in forest-savanna mosaics

Shade cast by trees, which suppresses grass growth, and fire fuelled by grass biomass, which prevents tree sapling establishment, are mutually exclusive and self-reinforcing drivers of biome distribution in savanna-forest mosaics. We investigated how shade depth, represented by canopy leaf area index (LAI), is generated by adult trees across savanna-forest boundaries and how a shade gradient filters tree functioning, and grass composition and biomass. Forest trees exerted greater shading through increased stem density and greater light interception per unit biomass. A critical transition at LAI c. 1.5 was linked to tree shifts from savanna to forest species, functional shifts from fire-tolerant to light-competitive species, and grass composition shifts from C₄ to C₃ pathways. A second transition to grass fuel loads too low to support fires, occurred at a lower canopy density (LAI > 0.5), accompanied by shifts in C₄ subtype dominance. This pattern suggests that shade suppression of grass biomass is an essential first step for the maintenance of alternative stable states.

Pyrodiversity interacts with rainfall to increase bird and mammal richness in African savannas

Fire is a fundamental process in savannas and is widely used for management. Pyrodiversity, variation in local fire characteristics, has been proposed as a driver of biodiversity although empirical evidence is equivocal. Using a new measure of pyrodiversity (Hempson et al.), we undertook the first continent-wide assessment of how pyrodiversity affects biodiversity in protected areas across African savannas. The influence of pyrodiversity on bird and mammal species richness varied with rainfall: strongest support for a positive effect occurred in wet savannas (> 650 mm/year), where species richness increased by 27% for mammals and 40% for birds in the most pyrodiverse regions. Range-restricted birds were most increased by pyrodiversity, suggesting the diversity of fire regimes increases the availability of rare niches. Our findings are significant because they explain the conflicting results found in previous studies of savannas. We argue that managing savanna landscapes to increase pyrodiversity is especially important in wet savannas.

On the relationship between fire regime and vegetation structure in the tropics

We assessed data from 11 experiments examining the effects of the timing and/or frequency of fire on tropical forest and/or savanna vegetation structure over one decade or more. The initial 'control treatment' in many such cases consisted of previously cleared land. This is as opposed to natural vegetation subject to some sort of endogenous fire regime before the imposition of fire treatments. Effects of fire on fractional foliar cover are up to 10-fold greater when clearing pre-treatments are imposed. Moreover, because many of the 'classic' fire trials were initialised with applied management questions in mind, most have also used burning regimes much more frequent and/or severe than those occurring in the absence of human activity. Once these factors are taken into account, our modelling analysis shows that nonanthropogenic fire regimes serve to reduce canopy vegetative cover to a much lower extent than has previously been argued to be the case. These results call into question the notion that fire effects on tropical vegetation can be of a sufficient magnitude to maintain open-type savanna ecosystems under climatic/soil regimes otherwise sufficient to give rise to a more luxurious forest-type vegetation cover.

Do consumer-mediated negative effects on plant establishment outweigh the positive effects of a nurse plant?

Many studies demonstrated the importance of facilitative effect by nurse plant on seedling establishment. Few studies evaluated the negative effects of consumers on plant establishment under nurse plants by dealing with them during multiple demographic processes. We investigated the balance between the facilitative effect and negative effects of consumers during multiple demographic processes in Malawi in southeastern Africa. We chose Ficus natalensis as a nurse plant and compared it with three other microsites in tropical woodlands: Brachystegia floribunda (a dominant woodland species), Uapaca kirkiana (a woodland species), and a treeless site. We quantified the seed rain, postdispersal seed predation, germination, and seedling survival of Syzygium guineense ssp. afromontanum (a common forest species). Within each microsite, we quantified the overall probability of recruitment. We also measured seedling abundance of S. guineense ssp. afromontanum. We found that Ficus natalensis exerted both positive and negative impacts on the establishment of S. guineense ssp. afromontanum. Ficus natalensis facilitated seed deposition, seed germination, and seedling survival. On the other hand, seed removal at postdispersal stage was highest under F. natalensis. Interestingly, B. floribunda also had positive effects on germination and seedling survival, but not on seed deposition. When we excluded the seed arrival stage from our estimation of the recruitment probability, the highest value was found under B. floribunda, not under F. natalensis. When we included the seed arrival stage, however, the order of recruitment probability between F. natalensis and B. floribunda was reversed. The probability was one order of magnitude higher under F. natalensis than under B. floribunda. Our estimation of the probability which included the seed arrival stage was consistent with natural patterns of S. guineense ssp. afromontanum establishment. Despite the presence of opposite effects, the net effects of F. natalensis on S. guineense ssp. afromontanum recruitment in tropical woodlands can be positive.

Strong competitive effects of African savanna C4 grasses on tree seedlings do not support rooting differentiation

Rooting differentiation between established trees and grasses has been well documented in savannas, but it remains unclear to what extent tree-grass rooting differences affect competition between newly established seedlings and grasses. To examine this question, a greenhouse experiment was conducted at the University of Missouri, USA. Twenty 3-mo-old seedlings each of two African savanna tree species (Acacia nigrescens and Colophospermum mopane) were grown for 8 mo with two crossed factors: grass competition and irrigation depth. Strong negative effects of grass competition on final seedling biomass and leaf photosynthetic and stomatal conductance occurred in both tree species, but no effects of irrigation depth were detected. There was a clear tree species by grass competition interaction, suggesting interspecific variation in competitive response. The results emphasize the importance of below-ground competition with grasses for physiological and morphological responses of tree seedlings, while minimizing the importance of tree-grass rooting depth differences as a factor in modulating the competitive response of trees to grasses at the seedling stage.

On the complex dynamics of savanna landscapes

Simple mathematical models can exhibit rich and complex behaviors. Prototypical examples of these drawn from biology and other disciplines have provided insights that extend well beyond the situations that inspired them. Here, we explore a set of simple, yet realistic, models for savanna-forest vegetation dynamics based on minimal ecological assumptions. These models are aimed at understanding how vegetation interacts with both climate (a primary global determinant of vegetation structure) and feedbacks with chronic disturbances from fire. The model includes three plant functional types-grasses, savanna trees, and forest trees. Grass and (when they allow grass to persist in their subcanopy) savanna trees promote the spread of fires, which in turn, demographically limit trees. The model exhibits a spectacular range of behaviors. In addition to bistability, analysis reveals (i) that diverse cyclic behaviors (including limit and homo- and heteroclinic cycles) occur for broad ranges of parameter space, (ii) that large shifts in landscape structure can result from endogenous dynamics and not just from external drivers or from noise, and (iii) that introducing noise into this system induces resonant and inverse resonant phenomena, some of which have never been previously observed in ecological models. Ecologically, these results raise questions about how to evaluate complicated dynamics with data. Mathematically, they lead to classes of behaviors that are likely to occur in other models with similar structure.

Warning signals of biodiversity collapse across gradients of tropical forest loss

We evaluate potential warning signals that may aid in identifying the proximity of ecological communities to biodiversity thresholds from habitat loss—often termed “tipping points”—in tropical forests. We used datasets from studies of Neotropical mammal, frog, bird, and insect communities. Our findings provide only limited evidence that an increase in the variance (heteroskedasticity) of biodiversity-related parameters can provide a general warning signal of impending threshold changes in communities, as forest loss increases. However, such an apparent effect was evident for amphibians in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and Amazonian mammal and bird communities, suggesting that impending changes in some species assemblages might be predictable. We consider the potential of such warning signs to help forecast drastic changes in biodiversity.

Fire forbids fifty-fifty forest

Recent studies have interpreted patterns of remotely sensed tree cover as evidence that forest with intermediate tree cover might be unstable in the tropics, as it will tip into either a closed forest or a more open savanna state. Here we show that across all continents the frequency of wildfires rises sharply as tree cover falls below ~40%. Using a simple empirical model, we hypothesize that the steepness of this pattern causes intermediate tree cover (30‒60%) to be unstable for a broad range of assumptions on tree growth and fire-driven mortality. We show that across all continents, observed frequency distributions of tropical tree cover are consistent with this hypothesis. We argue that percolation of fire through an open landscape may explain the remarkably universal rise of fire frequency around a critical tree cover, but we show that simple percolation models cannot predict the actual threshold quantitatively. The fire-driven instability of intermediate states implies that tree cover will not change smoothly with climate or other stressors and shifts between closed forest and a state of low tree cover will likely tend to be relatively sharp and difficult to reverse.

Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.

Competing consumers: contrasting the patterns and impacts of fire and mammalian herbivory in Africa

Fire and herbivory are the two consumers of above-ground biomass globally. They have contrasting impacts as they differ in terms of selectivity and temporal occurrence. Here, we integrate continental-scale data on fire and herbivory in Africa to explore (i) how environmental drivers constrain these two consumers and (ii) the degree to which each consumer affects the other. Environments conducive to mammalian herbivory are not necessarily the same as those conducive to fire, although their spheres of influence do overlap-especially in grassy ecosystems which are known for their frequent fires and abundance of large mammalian herbivores. Interactions between fire and herbivory can be competitive, facultative or antagonistic, and we explore this with reference to the potential for alternative ecosystem states. Although fire removes orders of magnitude more biomass than herbivory their methane emissions are very similar, and in the past, herbivores probably emitted more methane than fire. We contrast the type of herbivory and fire in different ecosystems to define 'consumer-realms'.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.

Savannahs of Asia: antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future

The savannahs of Asia remain locally unrecognized as distinctive ecosystems, and continue to be viewed as degraded forests or seasonally dry tropical forests. These colonial-era legacies are problematic, because they fail to recognize the unique diversity of Asian savannahs and the critical roles of fire and herbivory in maintaining ecosystem health and diversity. In this review, we show that: the palaeo-historical evidence suggests that the savannahs of Asia have existed for at least 1 million years, long before widespread landscape modification by humans; savannah regions across Asia have levels of C4 grass endemism and diversity that are consistent with area-based expectations for non-Asian savannahs; there are at least three distinct Asian savannah communities, namely deciduous broadleaf savannahs, deciduous fine-leafed and spiny savannahs and evergreen pine savannahs, with distinct functional ecologies consistent with fire- and herbivory-driven community assembly. Via an analysis of savannah climate domains on other continents, we map the potential extent of savannahs across Asia. We find that the climates of African savannahs provide the closest analogues for those of Asian deciduous savannahs, but that Asian pine savannahs occur in climates different to any of the savannahs in the southern continents. Finally, we review major threats to the persistence of savannahs in Asia, including the mismanagement of fire and herbivory, alien woody encroachment, afforestation policies and future climate uncertainty associated with the changing Asian monsoon. Research agendas that target these issues are urgently needed to manage and conserve these ecosystems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.