Interim Estimates of 2017-18 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness - United States, February 2018

Influenza vaccine failure: failure to protect or failure to understand?

INTRODUCTION

I propose that influenza vaccine failure be defined as receipt of a properly stored and administered vaccine with the subsequent development of documented influenza. Several mechanisms of vaccine failure occur and can - sometimes in combination - lead to what is termed 'vaccine failure.' Influenza vaccine failure occurs for many reasons, many of which are not true failures of the vaccine (e.g. improper vaccine storage/handling).

AREAS COVERED

In this article, I discuss common causes of 'vaccine failure' that are appropriately or inappropriately attributed to vaccines. This includes host, pathogen, vaccine, and study design issues such as genetic restriction of immune response; failure to store, handle, and administer vaccine properly; issues of immunosuppression and immunosenescence; apparent but false vaccine failure; time-mediated failure; etc.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

A proper framework and nosology for vaccine failure informs discussion about influenza vaccine efficacy and prevents misperceptions that in turn affect vaccine uptake. Influenza vaccine can only provide maximum protection to the extent that the circulating and vaccine strains closely match; the vaccine is stored, handled, and administered properly and within a time frame to result in development of protective levels of immunity; and it is administered to a host capable of immunologically responding with protective immune responses.

Identification of immunodominant CD8 epitope in the stalk domain of influenza B viral hemagglutinin

Human infections by type B influenza virus constitute about 25% of all influenza cases. The viral hemagglutinin is comprised of two subunits, HA1 and HA2. While HA1 is constantly evolving in an unpredictable fashion, the HA2 subunit is highly conserved, making it a potential candidate for a universal vaccine. However, immunodominant epitopes in the HA2 subunit remain largely unknown. To delineate MHC Class I epitopes, we first identified 9-mer H-2K^d-restricted CD8 T cell epitopes in the HA2 domain by in silico analyses, followed by evaluating the immunodominance of these peptides in mice challenged with the virus. Of three peptides selected through in silico analysis, the universally conserved peptide, YYSTAASSL (B/HA2-190), possessed the highest predicted binding affinity to MHC Class I and was most effective in inducing IL-2 and TNF-α in mouse splenocytes. Importantly, the peptide demonstrated best capability of stimulating peptide-specific ex-vivo cytotoxicity against target cells. Taken together, this finding would be of value for assessment of cell-mediated immune responses elicited by vaccines based on the highly conserved HA2 stalk domain.

Immune History and Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

The imperfect effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines is often blamed on antigenic mismatch, but even when the match appears good, effectiveness can be surprisingly low. Seasonal influenza vaccines also stand out for their variable effectiveness by age group from year to year and by recent vaccination status. These patterns suggest a role for immune history in influenza vaccine effectiveness, but inference is complicated by uncertainty about the contributions of bias to the estimates themselves. In this review, we describe unexpected patterns in the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination and explain how these patterns might arise as consequences of study design, the dynamics of immune memory, or both. Resolving this uncertainty could lead to improvements in vaccination strategy, including the use of universal vaccines in experienced populations, and the evaluation of vaccine efficacy against influenza and other antigenically variable pathogens.

The burden of influenza A and B in Mexico from the year 2010 to 2013: An observational, retrospective, database study, on records from the Directorate General of Epidemiology database

Despite vaccination programs, influenza still represents a significant disease burden in Mexico. We conducted an observational, retrospective analysis to better understand the epidemiological situation of the influenza virus in Mexico. Analysis of the seasonal patterns of influenza A and B were based on the Directorate General of Epidemiology dataset of influenza-like illness(ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection(SARI) that were recorded between January 2010 and December 2013. Our objectives were 1) to describe influenza A and B activity, by age group, and subtype and, 2) to analyze the number of laboratory-confirmed cases presenting with ILI by influenza type, the regional distribution of influenza, and its clinical features. Three periods of influenza activity were captured: August 2010-January 2011, December 2011-March 2012, and October 2012-March 2013. Cases were reported throughout Mexico, with 50.3% (n = 10,320) of cases found in 18-49 year olds. Over the entire capture period, a total of 76,085 ILI/SARI episodes had swab samples analyzed for influenza, 27% were positive. During the same period, influenza A cases were higher in the 18-49 years old, and influenza B cases in both 5-17 and 18-49 age groups. Peak activity occurred in January 2012 (n = 4,159) and December 2012 (n = 348) for influenza A and B respectively. This analysis confirms that influenza is an important respiratory pathogen for children and adults in Mexico despite vaccination recommendations. School-age children and adolescents were more prone to influenza B infection; while younger adults were susceptible to both influenza A and B viruses. Over the seasons, influenza A and B co-circulated.

Efforts to Improve the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine

Influenza viruses infect approximately 20% of the global population annually, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths. While there are Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved antiviral drugs for combating the disease, vaccination remains the best strategy for preventing infection. Due to the rapid mutation rate of influenza viruses, vaccine formulations need to be updated every year to provide adequate protection. In recent years, a great amount of effort has been focused on the development of a universal vaccine capable of eliciting broadly protective immunity. While universal influenza vaccines clearly have the best potential to provide long-lasting protection against influenza viruses, the timeline for their development, as well as the true universality of protection they afford, remains uncertain. In an attempt to reduce influenza disease burden while universal vaccines are developed and tested, many groups are working on a variety of strategies to improve the efficacy of the standard seasonal vaccine. This review will highlight the different techniques and technologies that have been, or are being, developed to improve the seasonal vaccination efforts against influenza viruses.

Epidemiological Studies to Support the Development of Next Generation Influenza Vaccines

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recently published a strategic plan for the development of a universal influenza vaccine. This plan focuses on improving understanding of influenza infection, the development of influenza immunity, and rational design of new vaccines. Epidemiological studies such as prospective, longitudinal cohort studies are essential to the completion of these objectives. In this review, we discuss the contributions of epidemiological studies to our current knowledge of vaccines and correlates of immunity, and how they can contribute to the development and evaluation of the next generation of influenza vaccines. These studies have been critical in monitoring the effectiveness of current influenza vaccines, identifying issues such as low vaccine effectiveness, reduced effectiveness among those who receive repeated vaccination, and issues related to egg adaptation during the manufacturing process. Epidemiological studies have also identified population-level correlates of protection that can inform the design and development of next generation influenza vaccines. Going forward, there is an enduring need for epidemiological studies to continue advancing knowledge of correlates of protection and the development of immunity, to evaluate and monitor the effectiveness of next generation influenza vaccines, and to inform recommendations for their use.

Using electronic biology based platform to predict flu vaccine efficacy for 2018/2019

Flu epidemics and potential pandemics pose great challenges to public health institutions, scientists and vaccine producers. Creating right vaccine composition for different parts of the world is not trivial and has been historically very problematic. This often resulted in decrease in vaccinations and reduced trust in public health officials. To improve future protection of population against flu we urgently need new methods for vaccine efficacy prediction and vaccine virus selection.

Interim estimate of influenza vaccine effectiveness in hospitalised children, Hong Kong, 2017/18

We conducted a hospital-based test-negative study in Hong Kong to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the winter of 2017/18. The interim analysis included data on 1,078 children admitted between 4 December 2017 and 31 January 2018 with febrile acute respiratory illness and tested for influenza. We estimated influenza VE at 66% (95% confidence interval (CI): 43-79) overall, and 65% (95% CI: 40-80) against influenza B, the dominant virus type (predominantly B/Yamagata).