Clinical states of cirrhosis and competing risks

Impact of multidrug resistance on the management of bacterial infections in cirrhosis

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of infection and differently from other complications, that over the years are improving in their outcomes, infections in cirrhotic patients are still a major cause of hospitalization and death (up to 50% in-hospital mortality). Infections by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) have become a major challenge in the management of cirrhotic patients with significant prognostic and cost-related impact. About one third of cirrhotic patients with bacterial infections is infected with MDR bacteria and their prevalence has increased in recent years. MDR infections have a worse prognosis compared to infections by non-resistant bacteria because they are associated with lower rate of infection resolution. An adequate management of cirrhotic patients with infections caused by MDR bacteria depends on the knowledge of some epidemiological aspects, such as the type of infection (spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, pneumonia, urinary tract infection and spontaneous bacteremia), bacteriological profile of antibiotic resistance at each health care unit and site of infection acquisition (community acquired, healthcare associated or nosocomial). Furthermore, regional variations in the prevalence of MDR infections determine that the choice of empirical antibiotic therapy must be adapted to the local microbiological epidemiology. Antibiotic treatment is the most effective measure to treat infections caused by MDRO. Therefore, optimizing antibiotic prescribing is critical to effectively treat these infections. Identification of risk factors for multidrug resistance is essential to define the best antibiotic treatment strategy in each case and the choice of an effective empirical antibiotic therapy and its early administration is cardinal to reduce mortality. On the other hand, the supply of new agents to treat these infections is very limited. Thus, specific protocols that include preventive measures must be implemented in order to limit the negative impact of this severe complication in cirrhotic patients.

Biomarkers of hepatocellular synthesis in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Since hepatocytes produce majority of serum proteins, patients with cirrhosis display substantial alterations in the serum proteome. The aim of the current study was to characterize these changes and to study the prognostic utility of hepatocellular proteins available in routine clinical testing.

METHODS

Sera from 29 healthy controls and 43 patients with cirrhosis were subjected to untargeted proteomic analysis. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering was performed with Perseus software and R. Ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA) suggested upstream regulators that were validated in liver tissues. The behavior and prognostic usefulness of selected biomarkers was investigated in 61 controls and 285 subjects with decompensated cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Proteomics uncovered 65 and 16 hepatocellular serum proteins that are significantly downregulated or upregulated in patients with cirrhosis vs. controls. Hierarchical clustering revealed two main clusters and six sub-clusters. IPA identified HNF4α and IL-6 as the two major upstream regulators that were confirmed by hepatic gene expression analyses. Among pseudocholinesterase, transferrin, transthyretin, albumin, and apolipoprotein AI (Apo-AI), Apo-AI was the best predictor of 90-days transplant-free survival (AUROC 0.678; p = 0.0001) and remained an independent predictor in multivariable Cox independently of the presence of acute-on-chronic liver failure.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals cirrhosis-associated changes in hepatocellular serum proteins and underlying transcription factors. Serum apolipoprotein AI may constitute a useful prognostic adjunct in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

The Baveno VII concept of cirrhosis recompensation

Traditionally, the progression from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis has been regarded as a point of no return in the natural history of the disease. However, this point of view is increasingly being challenged by new evidence on disease regression and hepatic recompensation upon suppression/cure of the underlying aetiology. In order to create a uniform definition of recompensated cirrhosis, standardised criteria have been set out by the Baveno VII consensus, which include the removal of the primary aetiological factor, the resolution of any decompensating events and a sustained improvement in hepatic function. Initial insights into the concept of hepatic recompensation come from previous studies, which have demonstrated that a cure/suppression of the underlying aetiology in patients with prior decompensation leads to significant clinical improvements and favourable outcomes and can even enable the delisting of transplant candidates. Nevertheless, future studies are required to shed light on the natural history of hepatic recompensation, assess modifying factors and potential non-invasive biomarkers of recompensation and explore the molecular mechanisms of disease regression.

Thrombocytopenia (TCP), MELD Score, and Fibrosis Index (FI) Among Hospitalized Patients with Chronic Liver Disease (CLD) in Ma'abar City, Dhamar Governorate, Yemen: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

This study sought to assess the prevalence of thrombocytopenia (TCP), underlying aetiologies of chronic liver disease, and the grading and prognostic systems for chronic liver disease (CLD) using non-invasive biomarkers: the Fibrosis index and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na (MELD-Na) Score, respectively.

Patients and Methods

This was a 15-month multi-centric cross-sectional study of 105 patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). The study was conducted using Sept 2019 to Nov 2020 admission records of CLD patients from Ma'abar City in Dhamar Governorate, Yemen.

Results

A total of 63 (60%) and 42 (40%) patients were identified as thrombocytopenic and non-thrombocytopenic, respectively. The means ± SD of the MELD score and FI were 19 ± 7.302 and 4.1 ± 1.06. TCP prevalence among leukopenic and non-leukopenic patients was 89.5% and 53.5%, respectively (P = 0.004). Likewise, the prevalence of traditional-ultrasonography-diagnosed cirrhotic patients needing liver transplantation (LT) was 82.3% versus 61.3% among corresponding non-cirrhotic patients (P = 0.000).

Conclusion

The prevalence of TCP among the participants of this study was similar to the global rate. However, the prevalence of decompensation was much higher among CLD patients than that found elsewhere, highlighting a need to improve methods for the early diagnosis of CLD in Yemen. This study also identified problems with the diagnostic work-up for non-infectious aetiologies of CLD. The findings suggest the need to improve clinician awareness about effective diagnostic strategies for these aetiologies.

Changing epidemiology of cirrhosis from 2010 to 2019: results from the Global Burden Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is a significant yet largely preventable and underappreciated cause of global health loss. This study aimed to profile the global and regional burdens of liver cirrhosis between 2010 and 2019 and the contributions of various aetiologies.

METHOD

Data on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of cirrhosis were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The burden of cirrhosis was estimated by age, sex, region, aetiology, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The temporal trend was quantified using the annual percentage changes (APC.).

RESULTS

Globally, there were 2.05 million new cases and 1.47 million deaths due to cirrhosis in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for cirrhosis increased slightly from 25.19 to 25.35 worldwide, while the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs (ASDALYs) decreased from 20.37 to 18.00 and 639.86 to 560.43, respectively. Cirrhosis incidence, mortality and DALYs were consistently higher in males than females. Stratification according to the socio-demographic index (SDI) revealed that low SDI countries had the highest ASDR and ASDALYs in 2019, while middle SDI countries had the highest ASIR. Regarding the aetiology of cirrhosis, hepatitis C accounted for the largest proportion of cirrhosis-related incidence (26.9%), death (26.8%) and DALYs (26.3%); however, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) exhibited a rapidly growing cause of incident cirrhosis (+26.7%), cirrhosis-related death (+25.1%), and DALYs (+21.0%) worldwide during this period. The ASIR for NAFLD also significantly increased with APC 1.080 over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Albeit the global burden of cirrhosis incidence increased from 2010 to 2019, cirrhosis-associated deaths and DALYs declined significantly. Notably, NAFLD exhibited the most significant increase as a contributor to cirrhosis worldwide.

Management of refractory ascites

The development of refractory ascites in approximately 10% of patients with decompensated cirrhosis heralds the progression to a more advanced stage of cirrhosis. Its pathogenesis is related to significant hemodynamic changes, initiated by portal hypertension, but ultimately leading to renal hypoperfusion and avid sodium retention. Inflammation can also contribute to the pathogenesis of refractory ascites by causing portal microthrombi, perpetuating the portal hypertension. Many complications accompany the development of refractory ascites, but renal dysfunction is most common. Management starts with continuation of sodium restriction, which needs frequent reviews for adherence; and regular large volume paracentesis of 5 L or more with albumin infusions to prevent the development of paracentesisinduced circulatory dysfunction. Albumin infusions independent of paracentesis may have a role in the management of these patients. The insertion of a covered, smaller diameter, transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic stent shunt (TIPS) in the appropriate patients with reasonable liver reserve can bring about improvement in quality of life and improved survival after ascites clearance. Devices such as an automated low-flow ascites pump may be available in the future for ascites treatment. Patients with refractory ascites should be referred for liver transplant, as their prognosis is poor. In patients with refractory ascites and concomitant chronic kidney disease of more than stage 3b, assessment should be referred for dual liver-kidney transplants. In patients with very advanced cirrhosis not suitable for any definitive treatment for ascites control, palliative care should be involved to improve the quality of life of these patients.

MAFLD: a multisystem disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), affecting about 25% of general population and more than 50% of dysmetabolic patients, is an emerging cause of chronic liver disease and its complications. Recently, an international consensus of experts proposed to rename this disease as 'Metabolic dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease' (MAFLD) to focus on the bidirectional interplay between fatty liver and metabolic alterations and to stress the need of assessing fatty liver independently from alcohol consumption and other coexisting causes of liver disease. The peculiarity of NAFLD/MAFLD lies in the presence of a higher risk of not only - as expected - liver-related events but also of extrahepatic events, mostly cardiovascular and cancers. Available evidence suggests that these associations are not only the expression of sharing the same risk factors but shed light about the ability of NAFLD/MAFLD and particularly of its progressive form - nonalcoholic/metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis - to act as an independent risk factor via promotion of atherogenic dyslipidemia and a proinflammatory, profibrogenic, and procoagulant systemic environment. The present review summarizes available epidemiological and clinical evidence supporting the concept of NAFLD/MAFLD as a multisystemic disease, and highlights potential explanatory mechanisms underlying the association between NAFLD/MAFLD and extrahepatic disorders.

The Dynamics of the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratios Predict Progression to Septic Shock and Death in Patients with Prolonged Intensive Care Unit Stay

Background and objectives: The prognoses of patients experiencing a prolonged stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) are often significantly altered by hospital-acquired infections (HAIs), the early detection of which might be cumbersome. The aim of this study was to investigate the roles of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR), derived-NRL (d-NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR), and lymphocyte-to-C-reactive protein (LCR) ratios in predicting the progression to septic shock and death. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis of a consecutive series of ninety COVID-19 patients with prolonged hospitalization (exceeding 15 days) admitted to the ICU was conducted. The prevalence of culture-proven HAIs throughout their hospital stays was documented. NLR, dNLR, PLR, and LCR were recorded on admission, day 7, and day 14 to assess their discriminative prowess for detecting further progression to septic shock or death. Results: The prevalence of HAIs was 76.6%, 50% of patients met the criteria for septic shock, and 50% died. The median time to the first positive culture was 13.5 days and 20.5 days for developing septic shock. Mechanical ventilation was a key contributing factor to HAI, septic shock, and mortality. On admission and day 7 NLR, dNLR, PLR, and LCR values had no prognostic relevance for events occurring late during hospitalization. However, day-14 NLR, dNLR, and PLR were independent predictors for progression to septic shock and mortality and have shown good discriminative capabilities. The AUCs for septic shock were 0.762, 0.764, and 0.716, while the values for predicting in-hospital death were 0.782, 0.778, and 0.758, respectively. Conclusions: NLR, dNLR, and PLR are quick, easy-to-use, cheap, effective biomarkers for the detection of a more severe disease course, of the late development of HAIs, and of the risk of death in critically ill patients requiring a prolonged ICU stay.

Comorbid Chronic Diseases and Survival in Compensated and Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Population-Based Study

INTRODUCTION

The burden of liver disease is substantial and increasing; the impact of comorbid chronic diseases on the clinical course of patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis is not well-defined. The aim of this study was to examine the individual and additive impact of comorbid chronic diseases on mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we used Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-dependent covariates to assess the impact of comorbid chronic diseases (diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease [CVD]) on mortality in patients with cirrhosis in a large, diverse Metroplex.

RESULTS

There were 35,361 patients with cirrhosis (mean age 59.5 years, 41.8% females, 29.7% non-White, and 17.5% Hispanic ethnicity). Overall, the presence of chronic comorbidities was 1 disease (28.9%), 2 diseases (17.5%), and 3 diseases (12.6%) with a majority having CVD (45%). Adjusted risk of mortality progressively increased with an increase in chronic diseases from 1 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.23-2.8) to 2 (HR 3.27.95% CI 2.9-3.69) to 3 (HR 4.52, 95% CI 3.99-5.12) diseases. Survival of patients with compensated cirrhosis and 3 chronic diseases was similar to subsets of decompensated cirrhosis (67.7% as compared with decompensated cirrhosis with 1-3 conditions, 61.9%-63.9%).

DISCUSSION

In patients with cirrhosis, a focus on comorbid chronic disease(s) as potential management targets may help avoid premature mortality, regardless of etiology. Multidisciplinary care early in the clinical course of cirrhosis is needed in addition to the current focus on management of complications of portal hypertension.

Validation of Baveno VII criteria for recompensation in entecavir-treated patients with hepatitis B-related decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Antiviral therapy improves the clinical outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), including those with cirrhosis. In the present study, we validated the Baveno VII definition of recompensation and explored the criteria for stable improvement of liver function tests in entecavir-treated patients with CHB-related decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this multicentre prospective study, patients with decompensated (ascites) CHB-related cirrhosis were enrolled and treated with entecavir for 120 weeks. Patients were followed up for clinical events, viral and biochemical tests, and ultrasonography every 6 months. The recompensation rate per Baveno VII criteria was calculated. Multivariate regression models were used to identify the predictors of recompensation. Finally, the criteria for stable improvement of liver function tests were explored.

RESULTS

Of the 320 recruited patients, 283 completed the 120-week study, with 261/283 (92.2%) achieving HBV DNA levels <20 IU/ml and 171/283 (60.4%) achieving resolution of ascites, encephalopathy, and absence of recurrent variceal bleeding for at least 12 months. We identified model for end-stage liver disease <10 and/or liver function tests within Child-Pugh Class A (albumin >35 g/L, international normalised ratio <1.50 and total bilirubin <34 μmol/L) as the criteria for stable improvement of liver function tests. Accordingly, 56.2% (159/283) of patients fulfilled the Baveno VII definition of recompensation with a stable improvement of liver function tests defined by the current study.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study defined the criteria for a stable improvement of liver function tests required by the Baveno VII definition of recompensation in patients with CHB-related decompensated cirrhosis on antiviral therapy. The criteria derived from this multicentre prospective study warrant further validation in patients with cirrhosis of other aetiologies.

LAY SUMMARY

Decompensation of cirrhosis marks the point at which the liver is no longer able to function normally (and symptoms become apparent). Recently the idea of recompensation was proposed for individuals who may experience an improvement in liver function if the underlying cause of their liver disease is addressed (e.g. antivirals for viral cirrhosis). Herein, we show that over 50% of patients with hepatitis B-related decompensated cirrhosis treated with antivirals could recompensate and we propose laboratory criteria which could be used to define recompensation.

Prediction of Decompensation and Death in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Using Deep Learning Analysis of Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of quantitative indices obtained from deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced hepatobiliary phase (HBP) MRI and their longitudinal changes in predicting decompensation and death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included patients who underwent baseline and 1-year follow-up MRI from a prospective cohort that underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance between November 2011 and August 2012 at a tertiary medical center. Baseline liver condition was categorized as non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD. The liver-to-spleen signal intensity ratio (LS-SIR) and liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LS-VR) were automatically measured on the HBP images using a deep learning algorithm, and their percentage changes at the 1-year follow-up (ΔLS-SIR and ΔLS-VR) were calculated. The associations of the MRI indices with hepatic decompensation and a composite endpoint of liver-related death or transplantation were evaluated using a competing risk analysis with multivariable Fine and Gray regression models, including baseline parameters alone and both baseline and follow-up parameters.

RESULTS

Our study included 280 patients (153 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 57 ± 7.95 years) with non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD in 32, 186, and 62 patients, respectively. Patients were followed for 11-117 months (median, 104 months). In patients with compensated ACLD, baseline LS-SIR (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.81; p = 0.034) and LS-VR (sHR, 0.71; p = 0.01) were independently associated with hepatic decompensation. The ΔLS-VR (sHR, 0.54; p = 0.002) was predictive of hepatic decompensation after adjusting for baseline variables. ΔLS-VR was an independent predictor of liver-related death or transplantation in patients with compensated ACLD (sHR, 0.46; p = 0.026) and decompensated ACLD (sHR, 0.61; p = 0.023).

CONCLUSION

MRI indices automatically derived from the deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced HBP MRI can be used as prognostic markers in patients with ACLD.

Another Step Toward Hepatitis C Elimination: An Economic Evaluation of an Irish National Birth Cohort Testing Program

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of offering once-off birth cohort testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) to people in Ireland born between 1965 and 1985, the cohort with the highest reported prevalence of undiagnosed chronic HCV infection.

METHODS

Systematic and opportunistic HCV birth cohort testing programs, implemented over a 4-year timeframe, were compared with the current practice of population risk-based testing only in a closed-cohort decision tree and Markov model hybrid over a lifetime time horizon. Outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were presented from the health system's perspective in 2020 euro (€). Uncertainty was assessed via deterministic, probabilistic, scenario, and threshold analyses.

RESULTS

In the base case, systematic testing yielded the largest cost and health benefits, followed by opportunistic testing and risk-based testing. Compared with risk-based testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for opportunistic testing was €14 586 (95% confidence interval €4185-€33 527) per QALY gained. Compared with opportunistic testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for systematic testing was €16 827 (95% confidence interval €5106-€38 843) per QALY gained. These findings were robust across a range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Both systematic and opportunistic birth cohort testing would be considered an efficient use of resources, but systematic testing was the optimal strategy at willingness-to-pay threshold values typically used in Ireland. Although cost-effective, any decision to introduce birth cohort testing for HCV (in Ireland or elsewhere) must be balanced with considerations regarding the feasibility and budget impact of implementing a national testing program given high initial costs and resource use.

Automated Machine Learning in Predicting 30-Day Mortality in Patients with Non-Cholestatic Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the feasibility of automated machine learning (AutoML) in predicting 30-day mortality in non-cholestatic cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 932 cirrhotic patients were included from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between 2014 and 2020. Participants were divided into training and validation datasets at a ratio of 8.5:1.5. Models were developed on the H₂O AutoML platform in the training dataset, and then were evaluated in the validation dataset by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The best AutoML model was interpreted by SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) Plot, Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation (LIME).

RESULTS

The model, based on the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, performed better (AUC 0.888) than the other AutoML models (logistic regression 0.673, gradient boost machine 0.886, random forest 0.866, deep learning 0.830, stacking 0.850), as well as the existing scorings (the model of end-stage liver disease [MELD] score 0.778, MELD-Na score 0.782, and albumin-bilirubin [ALBI] score 0.662). The most key variable in the XGBoost model was high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, followed by creatinine, white blood cell count, international normalized ratio, etc. Conclusion: The AutoML model based on the XGBoost algorithm presented better performance than the existing scoring systems for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with non-cholestatic cirrhosis. It shows the promise of AutoML in its future medical application.

Current approaches to hepatic encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a brain dysfunction caused by liver insufficiency and/or portosystemic shunts. Between 30%-40% of patients with cirrhosis will present overt HE during their lifetime. While the pathophysiology of HE is not entirely understood, three critical factors have been identified: hyperammonaemia, systemic inflammation and oxidative stress by glutaminase gene alterations. Minimal HE is defined by the presence of signs of cognitive abnormalities in a patient without asterixis or disorientation; it can only be diagnosed with neuropsychological or psychometric tests. The diagnosis of overt HE is based on clinical examination with clinical scales. Currently, only overt HE should be routinely treated. The aims of treatment in an acute episode should be to improve the mental status, identify and treat the precipitating factor, reduce duration and limit consequences. Treatment strategies are targeted at reducing ammonia production and/or increasing its elimination. Even though minimal HE has negative effects on the patient's quality of life and effects on prognosis, indications for treatment are still controversial. There are still many unanswered questions regarding the pathophysiology and management of HE. We should also endeavor to develop more accurate and objective diagnostic methods for overt HE that would permit early detection and help improve outcomes on quality of life and economic burden.

Epidemiology of liver cirrhosis and associated complications: Current knowledge and future directions

Cirrhosis causes a heavy global burden. In this review, we summarized up-to-date epidemiological features of cirrhosis and its complications. Recent epidemiological studies reported an increase in the prevalence of cirrhosis in 2017 compared to in 1990 in both men and women, with 5.2 million cases of cirrhosis and chronic liver disease occurring in 2017. Cirrhosis caused 1.48 million deaths in 2019, an increase of 8.1% compared to 2017. Disability-adjusted life-years due to cirrhosis ranked 16th among all diseases and 7th in people aged 50-74 years in 2019. The global burden of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis is decreasing, while the burden of cirrhosis due to alcohol and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing rapidly. We described the current epidemiology of the major complications of cirrhosis, including ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, renal disorders, and infections. We also summarized the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis. In the future, NAFLD-related cirrhosis will likely become more common due to the prevalence of metabolic diseases such as obesity and diabetes, and the prevalence of alcohol-induced cirrhosis is increasing. This altered epidemiology should be clinically noted, and relevant interventions should be undertaken.

Incidence of, Risk Factors for, and Outcomes After Ascites in a Population-Based Cohort of Older Americans

BACKGROUND

The incidence of, risk factors for, and outcomes after the development of ascites are poorly described for contemporary patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We examined data for a 20% random sample of US Medicare enrollees with cirrhosis and Part D prescription coverage from 2008 to 2019, excluding patients with heart failure and diuretic use prior to cirrhosis. Among 63,364 persons with cirrhosis, we evaluated the incidence of ascites using an Aalen-Johansen estimator. We evaluated risk factors for ascites, mortality, and mortality after ascites using multistate modeling. We determined the associations with each outcome for an array of medication exposures including nonselective beta-blockers, antiviral therapy, statins, rifaximin, anticoagulants, and metformin.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of ascites was 5.1%, 9.5%, and 10.7% and 1, 3, and 5 years overall. The corresponding data for ascites requiring paracentesis were 1%, 2.1%, and 2.4%. Persons aged < 65 years, with alcohol-related cirrhosis, varices, or HE, are most likely to develop ascites. The risk of ascites was higher for persons taking any NSBB (including carvedilol) but lower for those taking atorvastatin (but not other statins) and antiviral therapy for Hepatitis C. Incident ascites was associated with increased risk of death, HR 27.6 95%CI(21.7-35.1). Survival following ascites was 1.08 years (interquartile range, IQR, 0.26-2.75), 0.38 years (IQR0.1-1.3) for those requiring paracentesis. Lipophilic statins were the only medications associated with lower mortality after ascites requiring paracentesis.

CONCLUSIONS

Ascites is associated with a high risk of death. Very few candidate therapies are associated with the reduction in the risk of ascites and mortality after ascites development.

Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease and Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient ≤ 10 mm Hg

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), defined as hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥ 10 mmHg predicts clinical decompensation (CD) in cirrhosis. A proportion of cirrhosis patients have HVPG 6-10 mmHg. Their natural history is largely unknown.

DESIGN

Consecutive patients with advanced chronic liver disease (aCLD) [histological cirrhosis(n = 196) or liver stiffness measurement (LSM) > 15 kPa(n = 65)] and HVPG 6-10 mmHg were included. Primary objective was to study their natural course and patterns of CD. We also analyzed the predictors of CD at presentation and on follow-up and response to carvedilol.

RESULTS

Of 261 patients with HVPG 6-10 mmHg, 129(49.4%) had CD at first presentation; 78(29.9%) had single and 51(19.5%) had ≥ 2 CD. The most common CDs were ascites(n = 77) and jaundice(n = 65). A baseline HVPG ≥ 8 mmHg was independently associated with greater risk of CD [HR:1.7; p-0.002, AUROC:0.85(95%CI-0.81-0.91)]. New CD developed in 14.4% patients with compensated aCLD (median duration-23.1 months). Despite comparable baseline HVPG, patients developing new CD had higher HVPG on follow-up(15.3 ± 3.7 vs. 8 ± 2.1 mmHg; p < 0.001). Baseline LSM > 26.6 kPa, portosystemic shunt and serum albumin independently predicted new CD. Overall HVPG response to carvedilol(n = 60) was 23.3%, independent of baseline CD and HVPG. Five-year mortality was higher with ≥ 2 CD compared to single or no CD (23.5, 10 and 3%, respectively; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Nearly one-half of aCLD patients with HVPG 6-10 mmHg had CD, justifying the need to redefine CSPH. Interventions to reduce portal pressure in patients with HVPG ≥ 8 mmHg might improve long-term outcomes.

The role of lifestyle factors on comorbidity of chronic liver disease and cardiometabolic disease in Chinese population: A prospective cohort study

Background

Lifestyle factors are associated with chronic liver disease (CLD) and death after CLD diagnosis. However, their associations with pathways of CLD progression have been unclear, particularly transition to cardiometabolic disease (CMD), a major comorbid condition with CLD. We assessed the associations of lifestyle factors with CLD progression.

Methods

The study population involved 486,828 participants of the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) aged 30-79 years without a history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, CLD, or cancer at baseline. Liver-cardiometabolic comorbidity (LCC) was defined as developing CMD subsequently after first CLD (FCLD) in an individual. A multi-state model was used to estimate the associations of high-risk lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and central adiposity) with CLD progression from healthy to FCLD, subsequently to LCC, and further to death.

Findings

During a median follow-up of 11 years, 5046 participants developed FCLD, 519 developed LCC, and 157 died afterwards. There were positive associations between the number of high-risk lifestyle factors and risks of all transitions. The hazard ratios (95% CIs) per 1-factor increase were 1.30 (1.25-1.35) for transitions from baseline to FCLD, 1.21 (1.09-1.34) for FCLD to LCC, 1.20 (1.17-1.23) for baseline to death, 1.15 (1.09-1.22) for FCLD to death, and 1.17 (1.06-1.31) for LCC to death. For CLD subtypes, lifestyle factors showed different associations with disease-specific transitions even within the same transition stage.

Interpretation

High-risk lifestyle factors played a key role in all disease transition stages from healthy to FCLD, subsequently to LCC, and then to death, with different magnitude of associations.

Funding

Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese MoST and NSFC.

RESIST-HCV Criteria to Monitor Progression of Low-Risk Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis After HCV Eradication: The SIMPLE Study: SIMPLE: Scoring Index to Monitor Progression of Low-risk Esophageal varices

INTRODUCTION

Noninvasive criteria to predict the progression of low-risk esophageal varices (EV) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are lacking. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-HCV (RESIST-HCV) criteria for EV progression compared with elastography-based criteria (Baveno VI, Expanded Baveno VI, and Baveno VII-HCV criteria).

METHODS

All consecutive patients observed at 3 referral centers with compensated HCV cirrhosis with or without F1 EV who achieved sustained virological response by DAAs were classified at last esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGDS) as RESIST-HCV low risk (i.e., low probability of high-risk varices [HRV]) if platelets were >120 × 10 9 /L and serum albumin >3.6 g/dL or RESIST-HCV high risk (i.e., high probability of HRV) if platelets were <120 × 10 9 /L or serum albumin <3.6 g/dL. The primary outcome was the progression to HRV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis of noninvasive criteria were calculated.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 353 patients in Child-Pugh class A (mean age 67.2 years, 53.8% males). During a mean follow-up of 44.2 months, 34 patients (9.6%, 95% CI 6.7%-13.5%) developed HRV. At the last EGDS, 178 patients (50.4%) were RESIST-low risk, and 175 (49.6%) were RESIST-high risk. RESIST-HCV criteria showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.75), correctly sparing the highest number of EGDS (54.3%), with the lowest false-positive rate (45.7%), compared with elastography-based criteria. Decision curve analysis showed that RESIST-HCV had higher clinical utility than elastography-based criteria.

DISCUSSION

Biochemical-based RESIST-HCV criteria are useful to easily predict HRV development after HCV eradication by DAAs in patients with compensated cirrhosis and low-risk EV.

Prognosis of systemic inflammation at an early stage of cirrhosis using the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio during malnutrition risk screening: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), as a systemic inflammation index, predicts malnutrition risk during the early stages of cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center prospective cohort study, enrolling patients from June 2016 to September 2020. The patients underwent malnutrition risk assessments upon admission. The patients were classified into five clinical stages according to portal hypertension. The malnutrition risk was scored using the Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool (RFH-NPT) and validated by the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) or Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool (LDUST). Routine clinical laboratory measurements were performed to calculate the MLR, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The patients were followed up for 2 years.

RESULTS

Among the 154 patients with cirrhosis, 60 had compensated cirrhosis and 94 had decompensated cirrhosis. The optimal cutoff value of the MLR, >0.4, was effective in predicting malnutrition related to death or liver transplantation. Those with a high malnutrition risk defined by the NRS-2002 or RFH-NPT had a higher MLR than those with a low malnutrition risk. For patients with class A CTP cirrhosis or a MELD score of <10, an MLR cutoff of <0.4 significantly distinguished more patients with a low malnutrition risk than those with a high malnutrition risk. Both the RFH-NPT score and MLR increased significantly across the decompensated cirrhosis substages. Interestingly, the MLR exhibited a positive correlation with the RFH-NPT score until varices appeared, but the correlation was the highest at the substage of a history of variceal bleeding (r = 0.714, P = 0.009). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that an MLR of >0.4 was an independent factor for malnutrition risk by screening with the RFH-NPT, and this was confirmed using the LDUST and NRS-2002.

CONCLUSION

Immune-related inflammatory dysfunction predicts malnutrition risk during the early stages of cirrhosis.

Nanotechnology strategies for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis and treatment

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy threatening human health, and existing diagnostic and therapeutic techniques are facing great challenges. In the last decade or so, nanotechnology has been developed and improved for tumor diagnosis and treatment. For example, nano-intravenous injections have been approved for malignant perivascular epithelioid cell tumors. This article provides a comprehensive review of the applications of nanotechnology in HCC in recent years: (I) in radiological imaging, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), fluorescence imaging (FMI) and multimodality imaging. (II) For diagnostic applications in HCC serum markers. (III) As embolic agents in transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or directly as therapeutic drugs. (IV) For application in photothermal therapy and photodynamic therapy. (V) As carriers of chemotherapeutic drugs, targeted drugs, and natural plant drugs. (VI) For application in gene and immunotherapy. Compared with the traditional methods for diagnosis and treatment of HCC, nanoparticles have high sensitivity, reduce drug toxicity and have a long duration of action, and can also be combined with photothermal and photodynamic multimodal combination therapy. These summaries provide insights for the further development of nanotechnology applications in HCC.

Assessing the Risk of Further Decompensation and Survival in Patients With Cirrhosis With Variceal Bleeding as Their First Decompensation Event

INTRODUCTION

Limited data exist on long-term outcomes of patients with compensated cirrhosis presenting with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) as an index and lone decompensating event. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of further decompensation, survival, and risk factors of mortality in these patients.

METHODS

Patients with otherwise compensated cirrhosis presenting with AVB as their index decompensating event (n = 463) were analyzed in this single-center retrospective study. The incidence of individual decompensation events and survival was estimated using competing risk analysis. Risk factors for poor outcomes were identified.

RESULTS

The mean age was 47.4 (13.2) years, with most patients (86.5%) being males. Alcohol-related liver disease (42.3%) and viral cirrhosis (22.4%) were the main etiologies with a median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of 14 (11-15) at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 42 (24-62) months, 292 patients experienced further decompensations: ascites (n = 283; 96.9%), rebleeding (n = 157; 53.8%), and hepatic encephalopathy (n = 71; 24.3%). Most events occurred with similar frequency across different etiologies, except acute-on-chronic liver failure, which was more common in nonviral cirrhosis (Gray test, P = 0.042). Patients with viral and nonviral cirrhosis had similar survival (5-year survival: 91% and 80.1%, respectively; P = 0.062). Patients with early further decompensations (onset <6 weeks of index AVB event) (n = 40) had a higher mortality (52.5% vs 20.2% for late decompensations; P < 0.001). Active alcohol consumption (hazard ratio [HR]: 9 [5.31-15.3], P < 0.001), high white blood cell count at presentation (HR: 2.5 [1.4-4.4], P = 0.001), and early decompensation (HR: 6.2 [3.6-10.6], P < 0.001) predicted poor survival.

DISCUSSION

Despite a high incidence of further decompensation, 5-year survival of patients at this stage of cirrhosis is more than 80% across all etiologies in the absence of early further decompensation and active alcohol consumption.

Clinical usefulness of Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer for diagnosing liver cirrhosis and significant fibrosis in patients with chronic liver disease: A retrospective single-center study

Accurate diagnosis of liver cirrhosis (LC) and significant fibrosis in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) is important. The Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) has emerged as a novel serum biomarker for liver fibrosis; however, insufficient clinical data of M2BPGi are available in patients with CLD. Therefore, we performed a retrospective cohort study to investigate the clinical usefulness of serum M2BPGi for assessing LC and significant fibrosis in CLD patients. We retrospectively reviewed the CLD patients with measured serum M2BPGi at Kosin University Gospel Hospital between January 2016 and December 2019. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the independent factors associated with LC. The diagnostic power of serum M2BPGi for LC and significant fibrosis (≥F2) was evaluated and compared to that of other serum biomarkers using receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC). A total of 454 patients enrolled in this study. M2BPGi (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-2.07) and fibrosis index based on four factors (aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.11-1.37) were identified as significant independent factors for LC. The AUC of M2BPGi for LC (0.866) and significant fibrosis (0.816) were comparable to those of fibrosis index based on four factors (0.860, 0.773), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (0.806, 0.752), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (0.759, 0.710). The optimal cut-off values for M2BPGi for LC and significant fibrosis were 1.37 and 0.89, respectively. Serum M2BPGi levels were significantly correlated with liver stiffness measurements (ρ = 0.778). Serum M2BPGi is a reliable noninvasive method for the assessment of LC and significant fibrosis in patients with CLD.

Clinical significance of substantially elevated von Willebrand factor antigen levels in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Von Willebrand factor antigen (VWF) is a non-invasive marker for clinically significant portal hypertension (HVPG≥10 mmHg) and confers HVPG-independent prognostic information. While quantification of increased VWF-levels is not relevant in the context of von Willebrand disease, highly elevated VWF may be of clinical significance in ACLD. Thus, we have modified our analytical approach to quantify very high VWF-levels (i.e.,>420%) and investigated their prognostic value.

METHODS

Patients undergoing HVPG-measurement at the Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab with evidence of ACLD and information on VWF were considered. Clinical stages (CS) were defined as follows: Probable compensated ACLD (cACLD): LSM≥10kPa&HVPG<6 mmHg; 0: cACLD&6-9 mmHg; 1: cACLD&HVPG≥10 mmHg; 2: bleeding; 3: non-bleeding decompensation; 4: ≥2 decompensations.

RESULTS

124 (16%) of 793 patients had VWF>420%. The proportion of VWF>420% increased with disease severity (probable cACLD-0: 5(4%) vs. 1: 22(10%) vs. 2-4: 97(23%),p ≤ 0.001) as well as across HVPG (<6mmHg: 1(2%) vs. 6-9: 6(6%) vs. 10-15: 17(9%) vs. ≥16: 100(22%),p ≤ 0.001) and MELD (<10: 17(6%) vs. 10-14: 27(10%) vs. ≥15: 79(32%),p ≤ 0.001) strata. In patients with VWF>420%, median VWF was 533 (IQR:466-611)% and VWF was unrelated to HVPG (Spearman's ρ=0.139,p = 0.123), but showed direct correlations of weak/moderate strength with MELD (ρ=0.336,p < 0.001) and CRP (ρ=0.286,p = 0.001). In the subgroup with VWF>420%, VWF was predictive of decompensation/liver-related mortality (VWF per 10%; hazard ratio (HR): 1.02(95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.01-1.04),p = 0.008, even after adjusting for other factors (VWF per 10%; adjusted HR: 1.02(95%CI: 1.00-1.05),p = 0.031).

CONCLUSION

The proportion of patients with substantially elevated VWF values steadily increases with disease progression. While VWF is not reflective of HVPG in these patients, it is correlated with hepatic dysfunction and systemic inflammation. Importantly, quantification of high values provides prognostic information.

Evaluation of statins as a new therapy to alleviate chronotropic dysfunction in cirrhotic rats

AIMS

Liver cirrhosis defines by regenerative nodules and fibrotic septa, causing a complication called cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM) with chronotropic hypo-responsiveness. In addition to lowering cholesterol levels, statins yield antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects. In liver diseases animal models, statins have been shown to decrease hepatic inflammation, fibrogenesis, and portal pressure (PP). Therefore, we evaluated the atorvastatin effect on the heart in cirrhotic rats.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Bile duct ligation (BDL) or sham operation performed on male Wistar rats and grouped as cirrhotic; BDL/Saline, BDL/Ator-7d(days) (Atorvastatin 15 mg/kg/day), and BDL/Ator-14d groups, or control; Sham/Saline, Sham/Ator-7d, and Sham/Ator-14d groups. Corrected QT interval (QTc interval), chronotropic responses, serum brain natriuretic peptides (BNP), heart tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels were studied along with atrial Ras homolog family member A (RhoA) and endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) gene expression.

KEY FINDINGS

The chronotropic responses decreased in BDL/Saline and increased in BDL/Ator-7d group. The QTc interval, BNP, TNF-α, and MDA levels increased in BDL/Saline and decreased in BDL/Ator-14d group. The Nrf2 level did not change in BDL/Saline and increased in BDL/Ator-14d group. The liver inflammation and fibrosis increased in BDL/Saline and did not affect BDL/Ator-7d and BDL/Ator-14d groups. The RhoA expression was down-regulated in BDL/Saline, BDL/Ator-7d, and BDL/Ator-14d groups. The eNOS expression did not change in BDL/Saline and down-regulated in BDL/Ator-14d group.

SIGNIFICANCE

Atorvastatin alleviates the chronotropic hypo-responsiveness and down-regulates the atrial RhoA and eNOS gene expression along with anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and anti-stress effects in CCM.

Psoas muscle index predicts time to rehospitalization in liver cirrhosis: An observational study

Sarcopenia is frequent in liver cirrhosis (LC) where it is associated with morbidity and mortality. However, prognostic scores such as model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), or Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) do not contain sarcopenia as a variable. For this study, we utilized psoas muscle index (PMI) to objectively determine sarcopenia in hospitalized LC patients, and evaluated it as a predictor of time between discharge and readmission in LC. Abdominal computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans of 65 consecutive LC patients were retrospectively examined to determine PMI. MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP were calculated from clinical data. PMI was then combined with CTP to form an experimental score: CTP sarcopenia (CTPS). For PMI alone and for each score, correlation with time between discharge and readmission for liver-related complications was calculated. PMI was also tested for correlation with sex, body mass index (BMI), MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP. CTPS was most closely correlated with time to readmission (R = 0.730; P < .001), followed by CTP (R = 0.696; P < .001), MELD-Na (R = 0.405; P = .009), and PMI alone (R = 0.388; P = .01). Correlation with MELD (R = 0.354; P = .05) was lowest. Additionally, there were significant differences in PMI between male and female individuals (5.16 vs 4.54 cm2/m2; P = .04) and in BMI between sarcopenic and nonsarcopenic individuals (29.63 vs 25.88 kg/m2; P = .009). Sarcopenia is an independent short-term prognostic factor in LC. By combining data on sarcopenia with CTP, we created an experimental score that predicts time to readmission better than MELD, MELD-Na, or CTP.

Albumin administration in patients with cirrhosis: Current role and novel perspectives

Mortality in cirrhosis is mostly associated with the development of clinical decompensation, characterized by ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, or jaundice. Therefore, it is important to prevent and manage such complications. Traditionally, the pathophysiology of decompensated cirrhosis was explained by the peripheral arterial vasodilation hypothesis, but it is currently understood that decompensation might also be driven by a systemic inflammatory state (the systemic inflammation hypothesis). Considering its oncotic and nononcotic properties, albumin has been thoroughly evaluated in the prevention and management of several of these decompensating events. There are formal evidence-based recommendations from international medical societies proposing that albumin be administered in individuals with cirrhosis undergoing large-volume paracentesis, patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, those with acute kidney injury (even before the etiological diagnosis), and those with hepatorenal syndrome. Moreover, there are a few randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses suggesting a possible role for albumin infusion in patients with cirrhosis and ascites (long-term albumin administration), individuals with hepatic encephalopathy, and those with acute-on-chronic liver failure undergoing modest-volume paracentesis. Further studies are necessary to elucidate whether albumin administration also benefits patients with cirrhosis and other complications, such as individuals with extraperitoneal infections, those hospitalized with decompensated cirrhosis and hypoalbuminemia, and patients with hyponatremia.

Acute decompensation events differentially impact the risk of nosocomial infections and short-term outcomes in patients with cirrhosis

Aims

This research aimed to evaluate the influence of acute decompensation (AD) events upon admission on the subsequent risk of nosocomial infections (NIs) and the synergy between AD and the following NIs on the short-term outcome.

Methods

A total of 419 hospitalized individuals with cirrhosis and AD participated in the current study. Various AD events at admission and outcomes in patients with or without NIs were compared. The logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were designed for NIs development and liver transplant (LT)-free mortality at 28 and 90 days, respectively.

Results

During hospitalization, 91 patients developed NIs. Notably, a higher proportion of patients with NIs had jaundice (52.7 vs. 30.5%; p < 0.001) and bacterial infections (37.4 vs. 20.7%; p = 0.001) at admission compared to patients without NIs, while a lower proportion suffered gastrointestinal hemorrhage (16.5 vs. 36.6%; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that jaundice was independently linked with the development of NIs (OR, 2.732; 95% CI: 1.104–6.762). The 28-day (16.5 vs. 7.3%; p = 0.008) and 90-day (27.5 vs. 15.9%; p = 0.011) LT-free mortality rates of patients with NIs were significantly higher than those without NIs. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, jaundice remained an independent risk factor for 90-day death (HR, 5.775; 95% CI: 1.217–27.397). The connection between total bilirubin and 90-day mortality was nonlinear, and a 6 mg/mL threshold was proposed.

Conclusion

The types of AD events differentially predispose to risk of NIs. Presenting jaundice at admission is independently associated with NIs occurrence and increased 90-day mortality of patients with NIs. Antibiotic prophylaxis may benefit this specific subset of patients.

Current treatment of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) comprises a wide spectrum of pathologies ranging from non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL), characterized by simple steatosis without inflammation, to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), characterized by steatosis of the liver accompanied by inflammation and hepatocyte ballooning, which can lead to advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Apart from lifestyle modifications such as weight loss, a Mediterranean diet and physical activity, only a few NAFLD-specific pharmacological treatment options such as Vitamin E and Pioglitazone are considered by current international guidelines. However, recently randomized controlled trials with GLP-1 agonists, FXR and PPAR ligands as well as other agents have been published and may expand the therapeutic armamentarium for NAFLD in the near future. Finally, knowledge about treating complications of end-stage liver disease due to NASH becomes an increasingly important cornerstone in the treatment of the broad disease spectrum of NAFLD. In this review, we summarize currently available and future treatment options for patients with NAFLD that may help internal medicine specialists treat the complete clinical spectrum of this highly prevalent liver disease.

Novel nomogram model for predicting 6-week mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to compare it with other commonly used scoring systems.

METHODS

This retrospective study included cirrhotic patients with acute UGIB hospitalized between January 2013 and December 2020. Random sampling was used to divide patients into the training (n = 676) and validation cohorts (n = 291) at a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate logistic stepwise regression was used to establish a model for predicting 6-week mortality. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the training cohort, total bilirubin (TBIL) (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-2.50), hemoglobin (Hb) (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), C-reactive protein (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.30-6.07), prothrombin time (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and hepatic encephalopathy (stage I-II: OR 4.15, 95% CI 1.73-9.61; stage III-IV: OR 19.6, 95% CI 5.33-76.8) were identified as independent factors of 6-week mortality. The AUROC of the UGIB-LC score was 0.873 (95% CI 0.820-0.927), which was higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.781), model for end-stage liver disease score (0.766), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (0.716).

CONCLUSION

The UGIB-LC score is useful for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute UGIB, which is superior to the other three scoring systems.

Gut microbiota alteration and modulation in hepatitis B virus-related fibrosis and complications: Molecular mechanisms and therapeutic inventions

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has posed a threat to public health, mainly resulting in liver damage. With long-term accumulation of extracellular matrix, patients with chronic hepatitis B are at high risk of developing into liver fibrosis and cirrhosis and even life-threatening hepatic carcinoma. The occurrence of complications such as spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy greatly increases disability and mortality. With deeper understanding of the bidirectional interaction between the liver and the gut (gut-liver axis), there is a growing consensus that the human health closely relates to the gut microbiota. Supported by animal and human studies, the gut microbiota alters as the HBV-related liver fibrosis initials and progresses, characterized as the decrease of the ratio between “good” and “potentially pathogenic” microbes. When the primary disease is controlled via antiviral treatment, the gut microbiota dysfunction tends to be improved. Conversely, the recovery of gut microbiota can promote the regression of liver fibrosis. Therapeutic strategies targeted on gut microbiota (rifaximin, probiotics, engineered probiotics and fecal microbiota transplantation) have been applied to animal models and patients, obtaining satisfactory results.

Plasticity of monocytes and macrophages in cirrhosis of the liver

Cirrhosis of the liver is a systemic condition with raising prevalence worldwide. Patients with cirrhosis are highly susceptible to develop bacterial infections leading to acute decompensation and acute-on-chronic liver failure both associated with a high morbidity and mortality and sparse therapeutic options other than transplantation. Mononuclear phagocytes play a central role in innate immune responses and represent a first line of defence against pathogens. Their function includes phagocytosis, killing of bacteria, antigen presentation, cytokine production as well as recruitment and activation of immune effector cells. Liver injury and development of cirrhosis induces activation of liver resident Kupffer cells and recruitment of monocytes to the liver. Damage- and pathogen-associated molecular patterns promote systemic inflammation which involves multiple compartments besides the liver, such as the circulation, gut, peritoneal cavity and others. The function of circulating monocytes and tissue macrophages is severely impaired and worsens along with cirrhosis progression. The underlying mechanisms are complex and incompletely understood. Recent 'omics' technologies help to transform our understanding of cellular diversity and function in health and disease. In this review we point out the current state of knowledge on phenotypical and functional changes of monocytes and macrophages during cirrhosis evolution in different compartments and their role in disease progression. We also discuss the value of potential prognostic markers for cirrhosis-associated immuneparesis, and future immunotherapeutic strategies that may reduce the need for transplantation and death.

Acute hemodynamic response to propranolol predicts bleeding and nonbleeding decompensation in patients with cirrhosis

Nonselective beta‐blockers are used as prophylaxis for variceal bleeding in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). The acute hemodynamic response to intravenous propranolol (i.e., ≥10% reduction in hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG]) is linked to a decreased risk of variceal bleeding. In this study, we aimed to investigate the overall prognostic value of an acute response in compensated and decompensated ACLD. We analyzed the long‐term outcome of prospectively recruited patients with ACLD following a baseline HVPG measurement with an intraprocedural assessment of the acute hemodynamic response to propranolol. Overall, we included 98 patients with ACLD (mean ± SD age, 56.4 ± 11.5 years; 72.4% decompensated; 88.8% varices; mean ± SD HVPG, 19.9 ± 4.4 mm Hg) who were followed for a median of 9.6 (interquartile range, 6.5–18.2) months. Fifty‐seven patients (58.2%) demonstrated an acute hemodynamic response to propranolol that was associated with a decreased risk of variceal bleeding (at 12 months, 3.6% vs. 15% in nonresponder; log‐rank, p = 0.038) and hepatic decompensation (at 12 months, 23% vs. 33% in nonresponder; log‐rank, p = 0.096). On multivariate analysis, the acute response was an independent predictor of first/further hepatic decompensation (adjusted hazards ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13–0.70; p = 0.005). Importantly, there was a tendency toward a prolonged transplant‐free survival in acute responders compared to nonresponders (34.2; 95% CI, 29.2–39.2 vs. 25.2; 95% CI, 19.8–30.6 months; log‐rank, p = 0.191). Conclusions: Patients with ACLD who achieve an acute hemodynamic response to intravenous propranolol experience a lower risk of variceal bleeding and nonbleeding hepatic decompensation events compared to nonresponders. An assessment of the acute hemodynamic response to intravenous propranolol provides important prognostic information in ACLD.

Position statement on the use of albumin in liver cirrhosis

Cirrhosis is characterised by a prolonged asymptomatic period in which the inflammation persists, increasing as the disease progresses. Characteristic of this is the increase in pro-inflammatory cytokines and pro-oxidant molecules which are determining factors in the development of multiple organ dysfunction. In the early development of cirrhosis, splanchnic arterial vasodilation, activation of vasoconstrictor systems (renin-angiotensin-aldosterone) and the sympathetic nervous system (noradrenaline) bring about bacterial translocation and systemic dissemination via portal circulation of bacterial products, and molecular patterns associated with damage, which exacerbate the systemic inflammation present in the patient with cirrhosis. Albumin is a molecule that undergoes structural and functional changes as liver damage progresses, affecting its antioxidant, immunomodulatory, oncotic and endothelial stabilising properties. Our knowledge of the properties of albumin reveals a molecule with multiple treatment options in patients with cirrhosis, from the compensated then decompensated phases to multiple organ dysfunction. Its recognised uses in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, post-paracentesis circulatory dysfunction, acute kidney injury and hepatorenal syndrome are fully validated, and a treatment option has opened up in decompensated cirrhosis and in acute-on-chronic liver disease.

Portal pressure reductions induced by nonselective beta-blockers improve outcomes and decrease mortality in patients with cirrhosis with and without ascites

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HDL-C levels added to the MELD score improves 30-day mortality prediction in Asian patients with cirrhosis

Objectives

Lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels have been observed in chronic liver disease patients. The aim of this study was to develop a model that incorporates HDL-C levels and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 30-day mortality in Asian cirrhosis patients.

Methods

Cirrhosis patients were recruited from two hospitals in this retrospective observational study. Propensity score matching was used. The model’s performance was evaluated, including its ability to predict 30-day mortality, accuracy, and clinical utility. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were calculated.

Results

The HDL-C + MELD model showed good ability to predict 30-day mortality (area under the curve, 0.784; sensitivity, 0.797; specificity, 0.632), which was better than that of the MELD score alone. It also showed good calibration and a net benefit for all patients, which was better than that of the MELD score, except at the threshold probability. NRI and IDI results confirmed that adding HDL-C levels to the MELD score improved the model’s performance in predicting 30-day mortality.

Conclusion

We added HDL-C levels to the MELD score to predict 30-day mortality in Asian patients with cirrhosis. The HDLC + MELD model shows good ability to predict 30-day mortality and clinical utility.

Prognostic nomograms to predict overall survival and cause specific death in vulvar squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma has been rising in recent decades. The prognosis of patients with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma was explored, and nomograms were constructed to predict survival rates.

METHODS

Vulvar squamous cell carcinoma patient data were downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly divided into a training dataset and testing dataset. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression were used to identify risk factors affecting vulvar squamous cell carcinoma overall survival in the training dataset. Cumulative incidence function and Fine-Gray regression were used to analyze cancer specific death in the training dataset. Overall survival and cancer specific death nomograms were constructed and validated in the testing and whole datasets. Receiver operating characteristic and calibration were used to verify the predictive value and clinical applicability of the models.

RESULTS

Age ≥60 years, grade 3, American Joint Committee on Cancer stages III and IV, TNM (tumor, nodes, metastasis) stages T2, T3, N1, and M1 had a negative effect on overall survival in vulvar cancer patients. Surgery (hazard ratio (HR)=0.416, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.349 to 0.496, p<0.001) and chemotherapy (HR=0.637, 95% CI 0.544 to 0.746, p<0.001) may improve overall survival. Age, tumor grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy significantly affected vulvar cancer specific death. For area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the predictive ability of the nomograms for overall survival and cancer specific death for 1 year (area under the curve (AUC)=0.862), 3 years (AUC=0.832), and 5 years (AUC=0.808) were all >0.800.

CONCLUSION

The nomograms established in our study had an excellent predictive ability for overall survival and cancer specific death in vulvar cancer patients.

International Classification of Diseases Codes are Useful in Identifying Cirrhosis in Administrative Databases

BACKGROUND

Health administrative databases are essential to define patient populations, make socioeconomic predictions, and facilitate medical research and healthcare planning. The accuracy of this data is dependent on valid codes/coding algorithms.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to systematically identify and summarize the validity of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for identifying patients with cirrhosis in administrative data.

METHODS

Electronic databases, MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), the Web of Science, and CINAHL (via EBSCOhost), were searched for validation studies which compared ICD codes related to cirrhosis to a clinical reference standard, and reported statistical measures of performance.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies were included in the review. There was a large variation in the algorithms used to validate ICD codes to diagnose cirrhosis. Despite the variation, the positive predictive value (PPV) was greater than 84% and the specificity was greater than 75% in the majority of the studies. The negative predictive value (NPV) was lower, but still was associated with values greater than 70% in the majority of studies. Sensitivity data varied significantly with values ranging from 0.27 to 99%.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluated ICD codes for cirrhosis, including codes for chronic liver disease, cirrhosis-specific codes, and cirrhosis-related complications, have demonstrated variable sensitivity and reasonable specificity for the identification of cirrhosis. Additional research is needed to maximize the identification of persons with cirrhosis to avoid underestimating the burden of disease.

Peripapillary Vascular Density Measurement in Pediatric Renal and Liver Transplant

OBJECTIVES

Noninvasive monitorization of retinal structures of the eye could be a predictor for systemic microvasculature dysfunction in transplant recipients. In this study, our purpose was to determine the optic disc and peripapillary microvascular changes in pediatric patients who had undergone liver or renal transplant surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was performed at Başkent University. The medical records were reviewed, and patients who had liver or renal transplant in the last 10 years and were between 4 and 18 years old were included in the study. The optic disc and peripapillary vascular density parameters were obtained by optical coherence tomography angiography (Avanti RTVue XR). The results were compared with the results from age-matched, sex-matched, and spherical equivalent-matched healthy subjects.

RESULTS

Our study included 32 eyes of 16 liver transplant patients, 20 eyes of 10 renal transplant patients, and 64 eyes of 32 healthy participants (control). Whole image peripapillary, inside disc, peripapillary, superior and inferior hemisphere, and superior, inferior, temporal, and nasal quadrant peripapillary vascular densities were evaluated. No statistically significant differences in any parameter were noted between the healthy control group and the patient groups (P > .05 for all parameters).

CONCLUSIONS

Peripapillary vascular density measurements were not affected in pediatric renal and liver transplant patients.

Factor VIII/protein C ratio independently predicts liver-related events but does not indicate a hypercoagulable state in ACLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It has been suggested that the ratio of procoagulant factor VIII to anticoagulant protein C (FVIII/PC) reflects the hemostatic equilibrium. Moreover, FVIII/PC predicted decompensation/death in a small study not accounting for portal hypertension severity. We investigated (i) the prognostic value of FVIII/PC (outcome-cohort) and (ii) whether FVIII/PC reflects the hypercoagulable state (assessed by thrombomodulin-modified thrombin generation assay [TM-TGA]) or the risk of bleeding/thrombotic events in patients undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement during follow-up.

METHODS

(i) The outcome-cohort comprised 576 patients with evidence of advanced chronic liver disease (liver stiffness measurement ≥10 kPa and/or HVPG ≥6 mmHg). (ii) TM-TGA-cohort patients (n = 142) were recruited from the prospective VIenna CIrrhosis Study (VICIS: NCT03267615).

RESULTS

(i) FVIII/PC significantly increased across clinical stages (p <0.001) as well as HVPG (p <0.001) and MELD score (p <0.001) strata and remained independently associated with decompensation/liver-related death (adjusted hazard ratio 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.11; p = 0.013), even after multivariable adjustment. It was also associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) development (adjusted hazard ratio 1.10; 95% CI 1.02-1.19; p = 0.015) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. (ii) FVIII/PC showed a weak positive correlation with endogenous thrombin potential (Spearman's ρ = 0.255; p = 0.002), but this association disappeared after adjusting for the severity of liver disease. FVIII/PC was not associated with the development of bleeding (p = 0.272) or thrombotic events (p = 0.269). However, FVIII/PC correlated with biomarkers of different pathophysiological mechanisms that promote liver disease progression.

CONCLUSION

FVIII/PC provides prognostic information regarding hepatic decompensation/death and ACLF, independently of established prognostic indicators. However, this is not evidence that hypercoagulability drives disease progression, as the correlation between FVIII/PC and thrombin generation is confounded by liver disease severity and FVIII/PC was not associated with thrombosis. Therefore, FVIII/PC does not reflect coagulation and results from previous studies on FVIII/PC require re-interpretation.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT03267615 (in part).

LAY SUMMARY

A balanced coagulation system is essential for preventing bleeding episodes and blood clot formation (thrombosis). Blood of patients with advanced liver disease may have increased coagulation potential, possibly promoting the worsening of liver disease via thrombosis in the blood vessels of the liver. The ratio between the results of 2 blood tests (procoagulant factor VIII to anticoagulant protein C) has been suggested to reflect these increases in coagulation potential. Our study demonstrates, on the one hand, that this ratio is a versatile predictor of the development of complications of cirrhosis, yet on the other hand, that it is unrelated to coagulation.

Recent Advancements in Antifibrotic Therapies for Regression of Liver Fibrosis

Cirrhosis is a severe form of liver fibrosis that results in the irreversible replacement of liver tissue with scar tissue in the liver. Environmental toxicity, infections, metabolic causes, or other genetic factors including autoimmune hepatitis can lead to chronic liver injury and can result in inflammation and fibrosis. This activates myofibroblasts to secrete ECM proteins, resulting in the formation of fibrous scars on the liver. Fibrosis regression is possible through the removal of pathophysiological causes as well as the elimination of activated myofibroblasts, resulting in the reabsorption of the scar tissue. To date, a wide range of antifibrotic therapies has been tried and tested, with varying degrees of success. These therapies include the use of growth factors, cytokines, miRNAs, monoclonal antibodies, stem-cell-based approaches, and other approaches that target the ECM. The positive results of preclinical and clinical studies raise the prospect of a viable alternative to liver transplantation in the near future. The present review provides a synopsis of recent antifibrotic treatment modalities for the treatment of liver cirrhosis, as well as a brief summary of clinical trials that have been conducted to date.

Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in cirrhosis patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR) is used as an inflammatory index and has proven to be an accurate prognostic indicator for decompensated cirrhotics; however, its role in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has not been evaluated. We examined whether NLR is associated with mortality in decompensated cirrhosis patients undergoing TIPS.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of 268 decompensated cirrhotics who underwent TIPS from January 2011 to December 2015 at an academic medical center. NLR, patient demographics, manifestations of cirrhosis, TIPS indications and mortality were recorded. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses for prognostic factors associated with 30-day and 90-day post TIPS mortality were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 129 (48%) patients received TIPS for refractory ascites with 79 (29%) for variceal bleeding, 14 (5%) for hepatic hydrothorax, and 46 (17%) for other indications. Cirrhosis etiology included hepatitis C (36%), alcohol (28%), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (20%), or other (15%). Median NLR was 4.42 (IQR 2.75-7.19). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed NLR as an independent predictive factor of 30-day and 90-day mortality. Furthermore, in patients with a Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≤ 15, NLR is superior to MELD/MELD-Na score in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality. In patients with MELD > 15, MELD/MELD-Na score is superior to NLR.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that elevated NLR independently predicts 30-day and 90-day mortality. In patients with a MELD ≤ 15, NLR is a better prognostic factor than MELD or MELD-Na in predicting short-term mortality.

The prognostic value of HVPG-response to non-selective beta-blockers in patients with NASH cirrhosis and varices

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has become a leading cause of cirrhosis. The prognostic value of (HVPG)-guided NSBB prophylaxis remains to be investigated in the setting of NASH cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patients with NASH cirrhosis and varices undergoing HVPG-guided NSBB therapy were included. HVPG-response to NSBBs was evaluated within a median 52 (IQR:28-71) days after baseline measurement. HVPG-Response was defined as a decrease of ≥10% from baseline or below <12 mmHg. The composite endpoint was defined as variceal bleeding, decompensation, and liver-related death.

RESULTS

Thirtyeight patients were included: Child-A/B:33(87%), Child-C:5(13%) median HVPG:19.7 ± 4.7 mmHg. 21(55.3%) patients achieved HVPG-response to NSBB. Presence of diabetes(aOR:0.16, p = 0.038) and arterial blood pressure (aOR:1.07, p = 0.044) were independently associated with NSBB-response. While NSBB-HVPG-responders showed fewer decompensations within 90 days (n = 1(5%) vs. n = 3(29%), p = 0.172), only Child-Pugh stage B/C (p = 0.001), MELD ≥ 15(p = 0.021) and HVPG ≥ 20 mmHg(p = 0.011) predicted the composite endpoint at 90 days. Similarly, after 2years of follow-up, only Child-Pugh stage (B:p = 0.001, C:p < 0.001), MELD ≥ 15 (p = 0.021), HVPG≥20 mmHg (p = 0.011) predicted the composite endpoint. Importantly, all bleeding events occurred in HVPG-NSBB non-responders.

CONCLUSION

HVPG-response to NSBB was achieved in 55.3% of NASH patients with varices and this seemed to protect from variceal bleeding. However, only baseline HVPG ≥ 20 mmHg, Child-Pugh stage B/C and MELD ≥ 15 were predictors of decompensation/death in patients with NASH cirrhosis and varices.

Non-selective beta-blockers in patients with ascites: The complex interplay among the liver, kidney and heart

Non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) are the cornerstone of the primary and secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients. They additionally prevent ascites development and death in compensated patients with clinically significant portal hypertension. After ascites onset, NSBBs remain beneficial for preventing further decompensations. However, as the cirrhosis progresses, the inflammation increases, systemic vasodilatation worsens, ascites turns refractory and cardiodynamic equilibrium becomes extremely fragile. In this scenario, NSBBs can critically impair the cardiac reserve and facilitate a haemodynamic breakdown, imperilling renal perfusion. Consequently, NSBB treatment should be carefully monitored or even avoided in such patients, and other options for portal hypertension management should be considered. In the present review, we explore the effects of NSBBs in patients with ascites and discuss the complex interplay among their hepatic, systemic and renal haemodynamic effects in this scenario.

Implications and Management of Cirrhosis-Associated Immune Dysfunction Before and After Liver Transplantation

Cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction (CAID) describes a panacea of innate and adaptive deficits that result from the sequelae of cirrhotic portal hypertension that is similar in its manifestations regardless of etiology of chronic liver injury. CAID is associated with synchronous observations of dysregulated priming of innate immune effector cells that demonstrate a proinflammatory phenotype but are functionally impaired and unable to adequately prevent invading pathogens. CAID is mainly driven by gut-barrier dysfunction and is associated with deficits of microbial compartmentalization and homeostasis that lead to tonic activation, systemic inflammation, and exhaustion of innate-immune cells. CAID leads to a high frequency of bacterial and fungal infections in patients with cirrhosis that are often associated with acute decompensation of chronic liver disease and acute-on-chronic liver failure and carry a high mortality rate. Understanding the deficits of mucosal and systemic immunity in the context of chronic liver disease is essential to improving care for patients with cirrhosis, preventing precipitants of acute decompensation of cirrhosis, and improving morbidity and survival. In this review, we summarize the detailed dynamic immunological perturbations associated with advanced chronic liver disease and highlight the importance of recognizing immune dysregulation as a sequela of cirrhosis. Furthermore, we address the role of screening, prevention, and early treatment of infections in cirrhosis in improving patient outcomes in transplant and nontransplant settings.

Optimizing systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: the key role of liver function

The number of effective systemic therapies for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is rapidly increasing, and the advent of immunotherapy has changed the treatment paradigm for these patients, leading to significantly improved survival outcomes. However, many patients with HCC will continue to receive tyrosine kinase inhibitors, partly because of contraindications to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Currently, the best sequential first- and second-line systemic treatment remains elusive. Maintenance of optimal liver function is crucial, it is likely to impinge on temporary or permanent treatment discontinuation, and should also be considered when defining the treatment sequence. Hepatic decompensation, which does not always coincide with disease progression, is part of this complex dynamically evolving system, and must be promptly recognized and adequately managed to allow the patient to continue in the therapeutic course. The purpose of this review is to highlight and summarize the evidence on the efficacy and safety of systemic agents, with a focus on the impact of underlying cirrhosis, and to suggest new clinical outcomes for randomized controlled trials for advanced HCC to better assess the net health benefit in this specific setting.