High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period

An Optical Dye Method for Continuous Determination of Acidity in Ice Cores

The pH of polar ice is important for the stability and mobility of impurities in ice cores and can be strongly influenced by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic emissions. We present a simple optical method for continuous determination of acidity in ice cores based on spectroscopically determined color changes of two common pH-indicator dyes, bromophenol blue, and chlorophenol red. The sealed-system method described here is not equilibrated with CO₂, making it simpler than existing methods for pH determination in ice cores and offering a 10-90% peak response time of 45 s and a combined uncertainty of 9%. The method is applied to Holocene ice core sections from Greenland and Antarctica and compared to standard techniques such as electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) conducted on the solid ice, and electrolytic meltwater conductivity, EMWC. Acidity measured in the Greenland NGRIP ice core shows good agreement with acidity calculated from ion chromatography. Conductivity and dye-based acidity H_dye⁺ are found to be highly correlated in the Greenland NEGIS firn core (75.38° N, 35.56° W), with all signals greater than 3σ variability coinciding with either volcanic eruptions or possible wild fire activity. In contrast, the Antarctic Roosevelt Island ice core (79.36° S, 161.71° W) features an anticorrelation between conductivity and H_dye⁺, likely due to strong influence of marine salts.

Canadian Arctic sea ice reconstructed from bromine in the Greenland NEEM ice core

Reconstructing the past variability of Arctic sea ice provides an essential context for recent multi-year sea ice decline, although few quantitative reconstructions cover the Holocene period prior to the earliest historical records 1,200 years ago. Photochemical recycling of bromine is observed over first-year, or seasonal, sea ice in so-called “bromine explosions” and we employ a 1-D chemistry transport model to quantify processes of bromine enrichment over first-year sea ice and depositional transport over multi-year sea ice and land ice. We report bromine enrichment in the Northwest Greenland Eemian NEEM ice core since the end of the Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago, finding the maximum extension of first-year sea ice occurred approximately 9,000 years ago during the Holocene climate optimum, when Greenland temperatures were 2 to 3 °C above present values. First-year sea ice extent was lowest during the glacial stadials suggesting complete coverage of the Arctic Ocean by multi-year sea ice. These findings demonstrate a clear relationship between temperature and first-year sea ice extent in the Arctic and suggest multi-year sea ice will continue to decline as polar amplification drives Arctic temperatures beyond the 2 °C global average warming target of the recent COP21 Paris climate agreement.

Strong coupling of Asian Monsoon and Antarctic climates on sub-orbital timescales

There is increasing evidence that millennial-scale climate variability played an active role on orbital-scale climate changes, but the mechanism for this remains unclear. A ²³⁰Th-dated stalagmite δ¹⁸O record between 88 and 22 thousand years (ka) ago from Yongxing Cave in central China characterizes changes in Asian monsoon (AM) strength. After removing the 65°N insolation signal from our record, the δ¹⁸O residue is strongly anti-phased with Antarctic temperature variability on sub-orbital timescales during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Furthermore, once the ice volume signal from Antarctic ice core records were removed and extrapolated back to the last two glacial-interglacial cycles, we observe a linear relationship for both short- and long-duration events between Asian and Antarctic climate changes. This provides the robust evidence of a link between northern and southern hemisphere climates that operates through changes in atmospheric circulation. We find that the weakest monsoon closely associated with the warmest Antarctic event always occurred during the Terminations. This finding, along with similar shifts in the opal flux record, suggests that millennial-scale events play a key role in driving the deglaciation through positive feedbacks associated with enhanced upwelling and increasing CO₂.

Rapid and cyclic dust accumulation during MIS 2 in Central Asia inferred from loess OSL dating and grain-size analysis

Due to lack of reliable proxies from the Westerlies-dominant region, the strength change of Northern Hemisphere Westerlies remains poorly understood. The aim of this study is to provide a reliable paleoclimatic proxy about the Northern Hemisphere Westerlies change. Here we report a 30.7 m thick loess section from the Ili basin directly controlled by the Westerlies. Based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and high resolution grain-size records, we reconstruct the change history of the Westerlies strength during the last glacial period (mainly Marine Isotope Stages 2, MIS2), being similar with the Westerlies index recorded in the Qinghai Lake sediments. Within error limits, all ages are in stratigraphic order. We further compare the climatic records among the Ili loess, Qinghai Lake and the NGRIP, their similarity shows a good climatic coupling relationship among the Central Asia, East Asia and the North Atlantic, and the Westerlies plays a critical influence in transporting the North Atlantic signal to Central and East Asia.

Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes

Widespread ash dispersal poses a significant natural hazard to society, particularly in relation to disruption to aviation. Assessing the extent of the threat of far-travelled ash clouds on flight paths is substantially hindered by an incomplete volcanic history and an underestimation of the potential reach of distant eruptive centres. The risk of extensive ash clouds to aviation is thus poorly quantified. New evidence is presented of explosive Late Pleistocene eruptions in the Pacific Arc, currently undocumented in the proximal geological record, which dispersed ash up to 8000 km from source. Twelve microscopic ash deposits or cryptotephra, invisible to the naked eye, discovered within Greenland ice-cores, and ranging in age between 11.1 and 83.7 ka b2k, are compositionally matched to northern Pacific Arc sources including Japan, Kamchatka, Cascades and Alaska. Only two cryptotephra deposits are correlated to known high-magnitude eruptions (Towada-H, Japan, ca 15 ka BP and Mount St Helens Set M, ca 28 ka BP). For the remaining 10 deposits, there is no evidence of age- and compositionally-equivalent eruptive events in regional volcanic stratigraphies. This highlights the inherent problem of under-reporting eruptions and the dangers of underestimating the long-term risk of widespread ash dispersal for trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic flight routes.

Timescales of methane seepage on the Norwegian margin following collapse of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet

Gas hydrates stored on continental shelves are susceptible to dissociation triggered by environmental changes. Knowledge of the timescales of gas hydrate dissociation and subsequent methane release are critical in understanding the impact of marine gas hydrates on the ocean–atmosphere system. Here we report a methane efflux chronology from five sites, at depths of 220–400 m, in the southwest Barents and Norwegian seas where grounded ice sheets led to thickening of the gas hydrate stability zone during the last glaciation. The onset of methane release was coincident with deglaciation-induced pressure release and thinning of the hydrate stability zone. Methane efflux continued for 7–10 kyr, tracking hydrate stability changes controlled by relative sea-level rise, bottom water warming and fluid pathway evolution in response to changing stress fields. The protracted nature of seafloor methane emissions probably attenuated the impact of hydrate dissociation on the climate system.

Understanding the timescales of gas hydrate dissociation and methane release are critical to gauge the potential climate impact. Here, the authors report a methane efflux chronology from five sites in Barents and Norwegian seas and show methane release coincident with the release of ice sheet-induced pressure.

Contrasting scaling properties of interglacial and glacial climates

Understanding natural climate variability is essential for assessments of climate change. This is reflected in the scaling properties of climate records. The scaling exponents of the interglacial and the glacial climates are fundamentally different. The Holocene record is monofractal, with a scaling exponent H∼0.7. On the contrary, the glacial record is multifractal, with a significantly higher scaling exponent H∼1.2, indicating a longer persistence time and stronger nonlinearities in the glacial climate. The glacial climate is dominated by the strong multi-millennial Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events influencing the long-time correlation. However, by separately analysing the last glacial maximum lacking DO events, here we find the same scaling for that period as for the full glacial period. The unbroken scaling thus indicates that the DO events are part of the natural variability and not externally triggered. At glacial time scales, there is a scale break to a trivial scaling, contrasting the DO events from the similarly saw-tooth-shaped glacial cycles.

Natural climate variability and persistency are reflected in the scaling properties of climate records. Here, the authors show that the scaling properties of interglacial and glacial climates are distinctively different: The former is monofractal while the latter is multifractal with much longer range memory.

Carbon isotopes characterize rapid changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide during the last deglaciation

An understanding of the mechanisms that control CO2 change during glacial-interglacial cycles remains elusive. Here we help to constrain changing sources with a high-precision, high-resolution deglacial record of the stable isotopic composition of carbon in CO2(δ(13)C-CO2) in air extracted from ice samples from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. During the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 from 17.6 to 15.5 ka, these data demarcate a decrease in δ(13)C-CO2, likely due to a weakened oceanic biological pump. From 15.5 to 11.5 ka, the continued atmospheric CO2 rise of 40 ppm is associated with small changes in δ(13)C-CO2, consistent with a nearly equal contribution from a further weakening of the biological pump and rising ocean temperature. These two trends, related to marine sources, are punctuated at 16.3 and 12.9 ka with abrupt, century-scale perturbations in δ(13)C-CO2 that suggest rapid oxidation of organic land carbon or enhanced air-sea gas exchange in the Southern Ocean. Additional century-scale increases in atmospheric CO2 coincident with increases in atmospheric CH4 and Northern Hemisphere temperature at the onset of the Bølling (14.6-14.3 ka) and Holocene (11.6-11.4 ka) intervals are associated with small changes in δ(13)C-CO2, suggesting a combination of sources that included rising surface ocean temperature.

Onset and duration of transitions into Greenland Interstadials 15.2 and 14 in northern China constrained by an annually laminated stalagmite

The onset and duration of abrupt transitions into Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events can be studied in detail in Greenland ice cores given the excellent relative uncertainty of its lamina-counting chronology. For other geological archives, however, the shorter intervals are not determined accurately due to lack of clear annual lamina. Here, we present an oxygen isotope record of a stalagmite with well-developed annual lamina from Xinglong Cave, northern China, covering DO 15 and 14. Except for the absence of Greenland Interstadial (GIS) 15.1, the pattern of this record strongly resembles that of Greenland ice cores on millennial scales as well as the detailed centennial-scale cooling excursions within GIS 14. Additionally, the transitions into GIS 15.2 and 14, constrained by lamina counting, lasted 74 and 27 yr, respectively, both of which are in excellent agreement with that of the NGRIP record on the GICC05 timescales (100 ± 6 and 20 ± 1 yr, respectively). The close coupling of abrupt climatic oscillations on millennial to decadal scales between Greenland and northern China implies a rapid atmospheric teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the East Asian Summer Monsoon regions, probably via the westerlies.

Pedothem carbonates reveal anomalous North American atmospheric circulation 70,000-55,000 years ago

Our understanding of climatic conditions, and therefore forcing factors, in North America during the past two glacial cycles is limited in part by the scarcity of long, well-dated, continuous paleoclimate records. Here, we present the first, to our knowledge, continuous, millennial-resolution paleoclimate proxy record derived from millimeter-thick pedogenic carbonate clast coatings (pedothems), which are widely distributed in semiarid to arid regions worldwide. Our new multiisotope pedothem record from the Wind River Basin in Wyoming confirms a previously hypothesized period of increased transport of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the continental interior from 70,000 to 55,000 years ago based on oxygen and carbon isotopes determined by ion microprobe and uranium isotopes and U-Th dating by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. This pronounced meridional moisture transport, which contrasts with the dominant zonal transport of Pacific moisture into the North American interior by westerly winds before and after 70,000-55,000 years ago, may have resulted from a persistent anticyclone developed above the North American ice sheet during Marine Isotope Stage 4. We conclude that pedothems, when analyzed using microanalytical techniques, can provide high-resolution paleoclimate records that may open new avenues into understanding past terrestrial climates in regions where paleoclimate records are not otherwise available. When pedothem paleoclimate records are combined with existing records they will add complimentary soil-based perspectives on paleoclimate conditions.

Eastern South African hydroclimate over the past 270,000 years

Processes that control the hydrological balance in eastern South Africa on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood because proxy records documenting its variability at high resolution are scarce. In this work, we present a detailed 270,000 year-long record of terrestrial climate variability in the KwaZulu-Natal province based on elemental ratios of Fe/K from the southwest Indian Ocean, derived from X-ray fluorescence core scanning. Eastern South African climate variability on these time scales reflects both the long-term effect of regional insolation changes driven by orbital precession and the effects associated with high-latitude abrupt climate forcing over the past two glacial-interglacial cycles, including millennial-scale events not previously identified. Rapid changes towards more humid conditions in eastern South Africa as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling were potentially driven by a combination of warming in the Agulhas Current and shifts of the subtropical anticyclones. These climate oscillations appear coherent with other Southern Hemisphere records but are anti-phased with respect to the East Asian Monsoon. Numerical modelling results reveal that higher precipitation in the KwaZulu-Natal province during precession maxima is driven by a combination of increased local evaporation and elevated moisture transport into eastern South Africa from the coast of Mozambique.

Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events.

Synchronous centennial abrupt events in the ocean and atmosphere during the last deglaciation

Antarctic ice-core data reveal that the atmosphere experienced abrupt centennial increases in CO2 concentration during the last deglaciation (~18 thousand to 11 thousand years ago). Establishing the role of ocean circulation in these changes requires high-resolution, accurately dated marine records. Here, we report radiocarbon data from uranium-thorium-dated deep-sea corals in the Equatorial Atlantic and Drake Passage over the past 25,000 years. Two major deglacial radiocarbon shifts occurred in phase with centennial atmospheric CO2 rises at 14.8 thousand and 11.7 thousand years ago. We interpret these radiocarbon-enriched signals to represent two short-lived (less than 500 years) "overshoot" events, with Atlantic meridional overturning stronger than that of the modern era. These results provide compelling evidence for a close coupling of ocean circulation and centennial climate events during the last deglaciation.

Data-driven coarse graining in action: Modeling and prediction of complex systems

In many physical, technological, social, and economic applications, one is commonly faced with the task of estimating statistical properties, such as mean first passage times of a temporal continuous process, from empirical data (experimental observations). Typically, however, an accurate and reliable estimation of such properties directly from the data alone is not possible as the time series is often too short, or the particular phenomenon of interest is only rarely observed. We propose here a theoretical-computational framework which provides us with a systematic and rational estimation of statistical quantities of a given temporal process, such as waiting times between subsequent bursts of activity in intermittent signals. Our framework is illustrated with applications from real-world data sets, ranging from marine biology to paleoclimatic data.

Icebergs not the trigger for North Atlantic cold events

Abrupt climate change is a ubiquitous feature of the Late Pleistocene epoch. In particular, the sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (repeated transitions between warm interstadial and cold stadial conditions), as recorded by ice cores in Greenland, are thought to be linked to changes in the mode of overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, the observed correspondence between North Atlantic cold events and increased iceberg calving and dispersal from ice sheets surrounding the North Atlantic has inspired many ocean and climate modelling studies that make use of freshwater forcing scenarios to simulate abrupt change across the North Atlantic region and beyond. On the other hand, previous studies identified an apparent lag between North Atlantic cooling events and the appearance of ice-rafted debris over the last glacial cycle, leading to the hypothesis that iceberg discharge may be a consequence of stadial conditions rather than the cause. Here we further establish this relationship and demonstrate a systematic delay between pronounced surface cooling and the arrival of ice-rafted debris at a site southwest of Iceland over the past four glacial cycles, implying that in general icebergs arrived too late to have triggered cooling. Instead we suggest that--on the basis of our comparisons of ice-rafted debris and polar planktonic foraminifera--abrupt transitions to stadial conditions should be considered as a nonlinear response to more gradual cooling across the North Atlantic. Although the freshwater derived from melting icebergs may provide a positive feedback for enhancing and or prolonging stadial conditions, it does not trigger northern stadial events.

Energy flow and functional compensation in Great Basin small mammals under natural and anthropogenic environmental change

Research on the ecological impacts of environmental change has primarily focused at the species level, leaving the responses of ecosystem-level properties like energy flow poorly understood. This is especially so over millennial timescales inaccessible to direct observation. Here we examine how energy flow within a Great Basin small mammal community responded to climate-driven environmental change during the past 12,800 y, and use this baseline to evaluate responses observed during the past century. Our analyses reveal marked stability in energy flow during rapid climatic warming at the terminal Pleistocene despite dramatic turnover in the distribution of mammalian body sizes and habitat-associated functional groups. Functional group turnover was strongly correlated with climate-driven changes in regional vegetation, with climate and vegetation change preceding energetic shifts in the small mammal community. In contrast, the past century has witnessed a substantial reduction in energy flow caused by an increase in energetic dominance of small-bodied species with an affinity for closed grass habitats. This suggests that modern changes in land cover caused by anthropogenic activities--particularly the spread of nonnative annual grasslands--has led to a breakdown in the compensatory dynamics of energy flow. Human activities are thus modifying the small mammal community in ways that differ from climate-driven expectations, resulting in an energetically novel ecosystem. Our study illustrates the need to integrate across ecological and temporal scales to provide robust insights for long-term conservation and management.

The fossil record of phenotypic integration and modularity: A deep-time perspective on developmental and evolutionary dynamics

Variation is the raw material for natural selection, but the factors shaping variation are still poorly understood. Genetic and developmental interactions can direct variation, but there has been little synthesis of these effects with the extrinsic factors that can shape biodiversity over large scales. The study of phenotypic integration and modularity has the capacity to unify these aspects of evolutionary study by estimating genetic and developmental interactions through the quantitative analysis of morphology, allowing for combined assessment of intrinsic and extrinsic effects. Data from the fossil record in particular are central to our understanding of phenotypic integration and modularity because they provide the only information on deep-time developmental and evolutionary dynamics, including trends in trait relationships and their role in shaping organismal diversity. Here, we demonstrate the important perspective on phenotypic integration provided by the fossil record with a study of Smilodon fatalis (saber-toothed cats) and Canis dirus (dire wolves). We quantified temporal trends in size, variance, phenotypic integration, and direct developmental integration (fluctuating asymmetry) through 27,000 y of Late Pleistocene climate change. Both S. fatalis and C. dirus showed a gradual decrease in magnitude of phenotypic integration and an increase in variance and the correlation between fluctuating asymmetry and overall integration through time, suggesting that developmental integration mediated morphological response to environmental change in the later populations of these species. These results are consistent with experimental studies and represent, to our knowledge, the first deep-time validation of the importance of developmental integration in stabilizing morphological evolution through periods of environmental change.

Bipolar seesaw control on last interglacial sea level

Our current understanding of ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere interactions at ice-age terminations relies largely on assessments of the most recent (last) glacial-interglacial transition, Termination I (T-I). But the extent to which T-I is representative of previous terminations remains unclear. Testing the consistency of termination processes requires comparison of time series of critical climate parameters with detailed absolute and relative age control. However, such age control has been lacking for even the penultimate glacial termination (T-II), which culminated in a sea-level highstand during the last interglacial period that was several metres above present. Here we show that Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11), a prominent North Atlantic cold episode, occurred between 135 ± 1 and 130 ± 2 thousand years ago and was linked with rapid sea-level rise during T-II. Our conclusions are based on new and existing data for T-II and the last interglacial that we collate onto a single, radiometrically constrained chronology. The HS11 cold episode punctuated T-II and coincided directly with a major deglacial meltwater pulse, which predominantly entered the North Atlantic Ocean and accounted for about 70 per cent of the glacial-interglacial sea-level rise. We conclude that, possibly in response to stronger insolation and CO2 forcing earlier in T-II, the relationship between climate and ice-volume changes differed fundamentally from that of T-I. In T-I, the major sea-level rise clearly post-dates Heinrich Stadial 1. We also find that HS11 coincided with sustained Antarctic warming, probably through a bipolar seesaw temperature response, and propose that this heat gain at high southern latitudes promoted Antarctic ice-sheet melting that fuelled the last interglacial sea-level peak.

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

Coupling distances between Lévy measures and applications to noise sensitivity of SDE

We introduce the notion of coupling distances on the space of Lévy measures in order to quantify rates of convergence towards a limiting Lévy jump diffusion in terms of its characteristic triplet, in particular in terms of the tail of the Lévy measure. The main result yields an estimate of the Wasserstein–Kantorovich–Rubinstein distance on path space between two Lévy diffusions in terms of the coupling distances. We want to apply this to obtain precise rates of convergence for Markov chain approximations and a statistical goodness-of-fit test for low-dimensional conceptual climate models with paleoclimatic data.

Isotopic constraints on marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during the last deglaciation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial-interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

Centennial-scale changes in the global carbon cycle during the last deglaciation

Global climate and the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are correlated over recent glacial cycles. The combination of processes responsible for a rise in atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial termination (23,000 to 9,000 years ago), however, remains uncertain. Establishing the timing and rate of CO2 changes in the past provides critical insight into the mechanisms that influence the carbon cycle and helps put present and future anthropogenic emissions in context. Here we present CO2 and methane (CH4) records of the last deglaciation from a new high-accumulation West Antarctic ice core with unprecedented temporal resolution and precise chronology. We show that although low-frequency CO2 variations parallel changes in Antarctic temperature, abrupt CO2 changes occur that have a clear relationship with abrupt climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. A significant proportion of the direct radiative forcing associated with the rise in atmospheric CO2 occurred in three sudden steps, each of 10 to 15 parts per million. Every step took place in less than two centuries and was followed by no notable change in atmospheric CO2 for about 1,000 to 1,500 years. Slow, millennial-scale ventilation of Southern Ocean CO2-rich, deep-ocean water masses is thought to have been fundamental to the rise in atmospheric CO2 associated with the glacial termination, given the strong covariance of CO2 levels and Antarctic temperatures. Our data establish a contribution from an abrupt, centennial-scale mode of CO2 variability that is not directly related to Antarctic temperature. We suggest that processes operating on centennial timescales, probably involving the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, seem to be influencing global carbon-cycle dynamics and are at present not widely considered in Earth system models.

Permafrost thawing as a possible source of abrupt carbon release at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød

One of the most abrupt and yet unexplained past rises in atmospheric CO₂ (>10 p.p.m.v. in two centuries) occurred in quasi-synchrony with abrupt northern hemispheric warming into the Bølling/Allerød, ~14,600 years ago. Here we use a U/Th-dated record of atmospheric Δ¹⁴C from Tahiti corals to provide an independent and precise age control for this CO₂ rise. We also use model simulations to show that the release of old (nearly ¹⁴C-free) carbon can explain these changes in CO₂ and Δ¹⁴C. The Δ¹⁴C record provides an independent constraint on the amount of carbon released (~125 Pg C). We suggest, in line with observations of atmospheric CH₄ and terrigenous biomarkers, that thawing permafrost in high northern latitudes could have been the source of carbon, possibly with contribution from flooding of the Siberian continental shelf during meltwater pulse 1A. Our findings highlight the potential of the permafrost carbon reservoir to modulate abrupt climate changes via greenhouse-gas feedbacks.

Ice core records show evidence for an abrupt, and thus far unexplained, increase in atmospheric CO₂ levels ~14,600 years ago. Here, the authors combine ice core data, a precisely dated decline in atmospheric ¹⁴C and numerical simulations, and propose thawing permafrost as a possible source of this event.

Evolution in the sabre-tooth cat, Smilodon fatalis, in response to Pleistocene climate change

The late Pleistocene was a time of environmental change, culminating in an extinction event. Few fossil localities record a temporal series of carnivore fossil populations from this interesting interval as well as Rancho La Brea (RLB). We analysed mandibles of Smilodon fatalis from RLB using 2-D geometric morphometrics to examine whether, and how, mandibular shape changes through time. Smilodon fatalis shows mandibular evolution with oscillations between a small, ancestral-type morph in pits 77 (≈37 Kybp) and 2051 (≈26 Kybp), a larger, more derived morph in pits 91 (≈28 Kybp) and 61-67 (≈13.6 Kybp), and an intermediate morph from pit 13 (≈17.7 Kybp). These oscillations end in pit 61-67, with greatest body size, and are estimated to have its widest gape and lowest bite force. Additionally, variation is lowest in pit 61-67, which was deposited concurrent with the Bølling–Allerød warming event, which may have important implications for the timing or conditions during the extinction event. Contra to a temporal Bergmann's rule, such rapid warming events appear to be correlated with larger, derived, morphologies whereas static, cooler, climates correlate with gracile, ancestral morphologies.

Cryptic no more: soil macrofossils uncover Pleistocene forest microrefugia within a periglacial desert

Despite their critical importance for understanding the local effects of global climate change on biodiversity, glacial microrefugia are not well studied because they are difficult to detect by using classical palaeoecological or population genetics approaches. We used soil macrofossil charcoal analysis to uncover the presence of cryptic glacial refugia for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and other tree species in the Landes de Gascogne (southwestern France). Using botanical identification and direct radiocarbon dating (140 (14) C-dates) of macrofossil charcoal extracted from mineral soils, we reconstructed the glacial and postglacial history of all extant beech stands in the region (n = 11). Soil charcoal macrofossils were found in all sites, allowing the identification of up to at least 14 distinct fire events per site. There was direct evidence of the presence of beech during the last glacial period at three sites. Beech was detected during Heinrich stadial-1, one of the coldest and driest intervals of the last glacial period in Western Europe. Together with previous results on the genetic structure of the species in the region, these findings suggest that beech persisted in situ in several microrefugia through full glacial and interglacial periods up to the present day.

Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation

Greenland ice core water isotopic composition (δ(18)O) provides detailed evidence for abrupt climate changes but is by itself insufficient for quantitative reconstruction of past temperatures and their spatial patterns. We investigate Greenland temperature evolution during the last deglaciation using independent reconstructions from three ice cores and simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Contrary to the traditional δ(18)O interpretation, the Younger Dryas period was 4.5° ± 2°C warmer than the Oldest Dryas, due to increased carbon dioxide forcing and summer insolation. The magnitude of abrupt temperature changes is larger in central Greenland (9° to 14°C) than in the northwest (5° to 9°C), fingerprinting a North Atlantic origin. Simulated changes in temperature seasonality closely track changes in the Atlantic overturning strength and support the hypothesis that abrupt climate change is mostly a winter phenomenon.

Measurement of the D/H, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O, and ¹⁷O/¹⁶O isotope ratios in water by laser absorption spectroscopy at 2.73 μm

A compact isotope ratio laser spectrometry (IRLS) instrument was developed for simultaneous measurements of the D/H, 18O/16O and 17O/16O isotope ratios in water by laser absorption spectroscopy at 2.73 μm. Special attention is paid to the spectral data processing and implementation of a Kalman adaptive filtering to improve the measurement precision. Reduction of up to 3-fold in standard deviation in isotope ratio determination was obtained by the use of a Fourier filtering to remove undulation structure from spectrum baseline. Application of Kalman filtering enables isotope ratio measurement at 1 s time intervals with a precision (<1‰) better than that obtained by conventional 30 s averaging, while maintaining a fast system response. The implementation of the filter is described in detail and its effects on the accuracy and the precision of the isotope ratio measurements are investigated.

Siple Dome ice reveals two modes of millennial CO2 change during the last ice age

Reconstruction of atmospheric CO₂ during times of past abrupt climate change may help us better understand climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Previous ice core studies reveal simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO₂ and Antarctic temperature during times when Greenland and the northern hemisphere experienced very long, cold stadial conditions during the last ice age. Whether this relationship extends to all of the numerous stadial events in the Greenland ice core record has not been clear. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric CO₂ from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica for part of the last ice age. We find that CO₂ does not significantly change during the short Greenlandic stadial events, implying that the climate system perturbation that produced the short stadials was not strong enough to substantially alter the carbon cycle.

Whether all rapid climate events during the last ice age impacted the global carbon cycle is not clearly understood. Ahn and Brook present a high-resolution record of atmospheric CO₂ from Antarctica and suggest that only Greenland stadials associated with massive iceberg discharge influenced atmospheric CO₂.

Radiometric 81Kr dating identifies 120,000-year-old ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica

We present successful (81)Kr-Kr radiometric dating of ancient polar ice. Krypton was extracted from the air bubbles in four ∼350-kg polar ice samples from Taylor Glacier in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, and dated using Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA). The (81)Kr radiometric ages agree with independent age estimates obtained from stratigraphic dating techniques with a mean absolute age offset of 6 ± 2.5 ka. Our experimental methods and sampling strategy are validated by (i) (85)Kr and (39)Ar analyses that show the samples to be free of modern air contamination and (ii) air content measurements that show the ice did not experience gas loss. We estimate the error in the (81)Kr ages due to past geomagnetic variability to be below 3 ka. We show that ice from the previous interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5e, 130-115 ka before present) can be found in abundance near the surface of Taylor Glacier. Our study paves the way for reliable radiometric dating of ancient ice in blue ice areas and margin sites where large samples are available, greatly enhancing their scientific value as archives of old ice and meteorites. At present, ATTA (81)Kr analysis requires a 40-80-kg ice sample; as sample requirements continue to decrease, (81)Kr dating of ice cores is a future possibility.

Mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw over the past 550,000 years

An interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw--in which latitudinal migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) produce simultaneous wetting (increased precipitation) in one hemisphere and drying in the other--has been discovered in some tropical and subtropical regions. For instance, Chinese and Brazilian subtropical speleothem (cave formations such as stalactites and stalagmites) records show opposite trends in time series of oxygen isotopes (a proxy for precipitation variability) at millennial to orbital timescales, suggesting that hydrologic cycles were antiphased in the northerly versus southerly subtropics. This tropical to subtropical hydrologic phenomenon is likely to be an initial and important climatic response to orbital forcing. The impacts of such an interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw on higher-latitude regions and the global climate system, however, are unknown. Here we show that the antiphasing seen in the tropical records is also present in both hemispheres of the mid-latitude western Pacific Ocean. Our results are based on a new 550,000-year record of the growth frequency of speleothems from the Korean peninsula, which we compare to Southern Hemisphere equivalents. The Korean data are discontinuous and derived from 24 separate speleothems, but still allow the identification of periods of peak speleothem growth and, thus, precipitation. The clear hemispheric antiphasing indicates that the sphere of influence of the interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw over the past 550,000 years extended at least to the mid-latitudes, such as northeast Asia, and that orbital-timescale ITCZ shifts can have serious effects on temperate climate systems. Furthermore, our result implies that insolation-driven ITCZ dynamics may provoke water vapour and vegetation feedbacks in northern mid-latitude regions and could have regulated global climate conditions throughout the late Quaternary ice age cycles.

A strong 'filter' effect of the East China Sea land bridge for East Asia's temperate plant species: inferences from molecular phylogeography and ecological niche modelling of Platycrater arguta (Hydrangeaceae)

Background

In East Asia, an increasing number of studies on temperate forest tree species find evidence for migration and gene exchange across the East China Sea (ECS) land bridge up until the last glacial maximum (LGM). However, it is less clear when and how lineages diverged in this region, whether in full isolation or in the face of post-divergence gene flow. Here, we investigate the effects of Quaternary changes in climate and sea level on the evolutionary and demographic history of Platycrater arguta, a rare temperate understorey shrub with disjunct distributions in East China (var. sinensis) and South Japan (var. arguta). Molecular data were obtained from 14 P. arguta populations to infer current patterns of molecular structure and diversity in relation to past (Last Interglacial and Last Glacial Maximum) and present distributions based on ecological niche modelling (ENM). A coalescent-based isolation-with-migration (IM) model was used to estimate lineage divergence times and population demographic parameters.

Results

Combining information from nuclear/chloroplast sequence data with nuclear microsatellites, our IM analyses identify the two varieties as genetically distinct units that evolved in strict allopatry since the mid-Pleistocene, c. 0.89 (0.51–1.2) Ma. Together with Bayesian Skyeline Plots, our data further suggest that both lineages experienced post-divergence demographic growth, followed by refugial isolation, divergence, and in the case of var. arguta post-glacial admixture. However, past species distribution modelling indicates that the species’ overall distribution has not greatly changed over the last glacial cycles.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the important influence of ancient sea-level changes on the diversification of East Asia’s temperate flora. Implicitly, they challenge the notion of general temperate forest expansion across the ECS land bridge, demonstrating instead its ‘filter’ effect owing to an unsuitable environment for certain species and their biological (e.g., recruitment) properties.

Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change

The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.

The South African archaeological record contains evidence of the early flourishing of the human mind. Ziegler et al. provide new paleoclimate reconstructions, which suggest that rapid fluctuations in global climate have played a key role in the evolution of these early human cultures.

The chronostratigraphy of the Haua Fteah cave (Cyrenaica, northeast Libya)

The 1950s excavations by Charles McBurney in the Haua Fteah, a large karstic cave on the coast of northeast Libya, revealed a deep sequence of human occupation. Most subsequent research on North African prehistory refers to his discoveries and interpretations, but the chronology of its archaeological and geological sequences has been based on very early age determinations. This paper reports on the initial results of a comprehensive multi-method dating program undertaken as part of new work at the site, involving radiocarbon dating of charcoal, land snails and marine shell, cryptotephra investigations, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments, and electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of tooth enamel. The dating samples were collected from the newly exposed and cleaned faces of the upper 7.5 m of the ∼14.0 m-deep McBurney trench, which contain six of the seven major cultural phases that he identified. Despite problems of sediment transport and reworking, using a Bayesian statistical model the new dating program establishes a robust framework for the five major lithostratigraphic units identified in the stratigraphic succession, and for the major cultural units. The age of two anatomically modern human mandibles found by McBurney in Layer XXXIII near the base of his Levalloiso-Mousterian phase can now be estimated to between 73 and 65 ka (thousands of years ago) at the 95.4% confidence level, within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4. McBurney's Layer XXV, associated with Upper Palaeolithic Dabban blade industries, has a clear stratigraphic relationship with Campanian Ignimbrite tephra. Microlithic Oranian technologies developed following the climax of the Last Glacial Maximum and the more microlithic Capsian in the Younger Dryas. Neolithic pottery and perhaps domestic livestock were used in the cave from the mid Holocene but there is no certain evidence for plant cultivation until the Graeco-Roman period.

How warm was the last interglacial? New model-data comparisons

A Community Climate System Model, Version 3 (CCSM3) simulation for 125 ka during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is compared to two recent proxy reconstructions to evaluate surface temperature changes from modern times. The dominant forcing change from modern, the orbital forcing, modified the incoming solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere, resulting in large positive anomalies in boreal summer. Greenhouse gas concentrations are similar to those of the pre-industrial (PI) Holocene. CCSM3 simulates an enhanced seasonal cycle over the Northern Hemisphere continents with warming most developed during boreal summer. In addition, year-round warming over the North Atlantic is associated with a seasonal memory of sea ice retreat in CCSM3, which extends the effects of positive summer insolation anomalies on the high-latitude oceans to winter months. The simulated Arctic terrestrial annual warming, though, is much less than the observational evidence, suggesting either missing feedbacks in the simulation and/or interpretation of the proxies. Over Antarctica, CCSM3 cannot reproduce the large LIG warming recorded by the Antarctic ice cores, even with simulations designed to consider observed evidence of early LIG warmth in Southern Ocean and Antarctica records and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Comparisons with a HadCM3 simulation indicate that sea ice is important for understanding model polar responses. Overall, the models simulate little global annual surface temperature change, while the proxy reconstructions suggest a global annual warming at LIG (as compared to the PI Holocene) of approximately 1(°)C, though with possible spatial sampling biases. The CCSM3 SRES B1 (low scenario) future projections suggest high-latitude warmth similar to that reconstructed for the LIG may be exceeded before the end of this century.

Continuous flow analysis method for determination of dissolved reactive phosphorus in ice cores

Phosphorus (P) is an essential macronutrient for all living organisms. Phosphorus is often present in nature as the soluble phosphate ion PO4(3-) and has biological, terrestrial, and marine emission sources. Thus PO4(3-) detected in ice cores has the potential to be an important tracer for biological activity in the past. In this study a continuous and highly sensitive absorption method for detection of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) in ice cores has been developed using a molybdate reagent and a 2-m liquid waveguide capillary cell (LWCC). DRP is the soluble form of the nutrient phosphorus, which reacts with molybdate. The method was optimized to meet the low concentrations of DRP in Greenland ice, with a depth resolution of approximately 2 cm and an analytical uncertainty of 1.1 nM (0.1 ppb) PO4(3-). The method has been applied to segments of a shallow firn core from Northeast Greenland, indicating a mean concentration level of 2.74 nM (0.26 ppb) PO4(3-) for the period 1930-2005 with a standard deviation of 1.37 nM (0.13 ppb) PO4(3-) and values reaching as high as 10.52 nM (1 ppb) PO4(3-). Similar levels were detected for the period 1771-1823. Based on impurity abundances, dust and biogenic particles were found to be the most likely sources of DRP deposited in Northeast Greenland.

Hydrologic impacts of past shifts of Earth's thermal equator offer insight into those to be produced by fossil fuel CO2

Major changes in global rainfall patterns accompanied a northward shift of Earth's thermal equator at the onset of an abrupt climate change 14.6 kya. This northward pull of Earth's wind and rain belts stemmed from disintegration of North Atlantic winter sea ice cover, which steepened the interhemispheric meridional temperature gradient. A southward migration of Earth's thermal equator may have accompanied the more recent Medieval Warm to Little Ice Age climate transition in the Northern Hemisphere. As fossil fuel CO2 warms the planet, the continents of the Northern Hemisphere are expected to warm faster than the Southern Hemisphere oceans. Therefore, we predict that a northward shift of Earth's thermal equator, initiated by an increased interhemispheric temperature contrast, may well produce hydrologic changes similar to those that occurred during past Northern Hemisphere warm periods. If so, the American West, the Middle East, and southern Amazonia will become drier, and monsoonal Asia, Venezuela, and equatorial Africa will become wetter. Additional paleoclimate data should be acquired and model simulations should be conducted to evaluate the reliability of this analog.

High-resolution summer precipitation variations in the western Chinese Loess Plateau during the last glacial

We present a summer precipitation reconstruction for the last glacial (LG) on the western edge of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) using a well-dated organic carbon isotopic dataset together with an independent modern process study results. Our results demonstrate that summer precipitation variations in the CLP during the LG were broadly correlated to the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as recorded by stalagmite oxygen isotopes from southern China. During the last deglaciation, the onset of the increase in temperatures at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and decline in the intensity of the East Asia winter monsoon in mid latitudes was earlier than the increase in ASM intensity and our reconstructed summer precipitation in the western CLP. Quantitative reconstruction of a single paleoclimatic factor provides new insights and opportunities for further understanding of the paleoclimatic variations in monsoonal East Asia and their relation to the global climatic system.

Natural variation of C-repeat-binding factor (CBFs) genes is a major cause of divergence in freezing tolerance among a group of Arabidopsis thaliana populations along the Yangtze River in China

We used a monophyletic group of four natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana expanded from a single ancestor along the Yangtze River c. 90,000 yr ago to study the molecular mechanism of the divergence in their freezing tolerance, in order to gain an insight into the genetic basis of their local adaption to low temperatures. Freezing tolerance assays, measurements of metabolites in the raffinose biosynthesis pathway and transactivation-activity assays of variation in forms of cold-responsive transcription factors were conducted on the four populations. Quantitative trait locus mapping was adopted with F₂ populations of the most- and least freezing-tolerant populations. The degree of freezing tolerance among the four populations was negatively correlated with the lowest monthly average temperature of January in their native habitats, and positively correlated to the expression level of some cold-regulated genes. We identified a major locus harboring three cold-responsive transcription factor genes CBF1-3, and found a nucleotide insertion in CBF2 in all populations except SXcgx, which generated a dysfunctional CBF2 protein. The CBF2 in SXcgx experienced a stronger natural selection in the cooler environment after CBF3 lost its response to low temperature, which possibly reflects a local adaptation of these populations during the expansion from a common ancestor.

Varied response of western Pacific hydrology to climate forcings over the last glacial period

Atmospheric deep convection in the west Pacific plays a key role in the global heat and moisture budgets, yet its response to orbital and abrupt climate change events is poorly resolved. Here, we present four absolutely dated, overlapping stalagmite oxygen isotopic records from northern Borneo that span most of the last glacial cycle. The records suggest that northern Borneo's hydroclimate shifted in phase with precessional forcing but was only weakly affected by glacial-interglacial changes in global climate boundary conditions. Regional convection likely decreased during Heinrich events, but other Northern Hemisphere abrupt climate change events are notably absent. The new records suggest that the deep tropical Pacific hydroclimate variability may have played an important role in shaping the global response to the largest abrupt climate change events.