The epidemic behavior of the hepatitis C virus

Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C virus among different groups of people in the province of Fujian, China

Genotyping of hepatitis C virus (HCV) can provide valuable information for prognosis and treatment duration prediction. To explore the genetic diversity of HCV in Fujian Province, China, 112, 104 and 48 anti-HCV-positive serum samples were collected from volunteer blood donors, IDUs and patients, respectively, from Jan 2008 to Dec 2008 and were genotyped through sequence analysis, followed by phylogenetic analysis in the C/E1 and NS5B regions. Genotypes could be determined for 85.61 and 84.85 % of samples in the C/E1 and NS5B region, respectively. 6a was the most prevalent subtype, which accounted for 42.04 and 43.75 % in the C/E1 and NS5B region, respectively. Mixed infection and potential recombination were detected in this study. Kappa tests indicated that similar results were obtained by two genotyping methods targeting the C/E1 and NS5B regions. The differences in the main prevalent subtype between the three target groups suggest diversity of HCV prevalence in different populations.

HCV genotype 5: an orphan virus

HCV genotype 5 (HCV-5) is the least known HCV genotype. It is found mainly in South Africa and in restricted areas of Belgium, Spain, France, Syria and Greece. Sporadic cases are reported worldwide. The main modes of transmission are blood transfusion and iatrogenic causes. Little is known about its origin, but various studies have elucidated its spread worldwide. In endemic areas, patients infected with HCV-5 are on average older and have a higher viral load and more advanced fibrosis than those infected with non-HCV-5 genotypes.The current standard of care for HCV-5 chronic infection is 48 weeks of dual therapy with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin. 'Favourable' Il28B polymorphisms are not associated with higher sustained viral response rates. Assessment of shorter duration of therapy is made difficult by the lack of identifiable baseline predictors of response. Whilst there are in vitro data showing good activity of some direct-acting antivirals and of host-targeted agents against HCV-5, no clinical trials of these molecules have yet started.

Hepatitis C viremia and genotype distribution among a sample of nonmedical prescription drug users exposed to HCV in rural Appalachia

Research has demonstrated that hepatitis C (HCV) genotype distribution varies geographically and demographically. This exploratory study examines HCV viremia, viral concentration, and genotype distribution among anti-HCV positive, rural Appalachian nonmedical prescription drug users. The study population was randomly selected from a pool of 200 anti-HCV positive participants in a longitudinal study. Those randomly chosen were representative of the overall pool in terms of demographics, drug use, and other risk behaviors. Participants were tested serologically for HCV RNA, viral concentration, and genotype, and interview-administered questionnaires examined behavioral and demographic characteristics. Of the 81 participants, 69% tested RNA positive, 59% of which had viral loads exceeding 800,000 IU/ml. Approximately 66% of the RNA positive sample had genotype 1a; types 2b (16%) and 3a (13%) were less common. RNA positive participants were not significantly different than RNA negative participants demographically or behaviorally. Likewise, with the exception of education, genotype 1 participants were not significantly different than those with genotype 2 or 3. The prevalence of active HCV infection highlights a need for prevention and treatment in this population. However, the predominance of genotype 1 may present challenges due to its association with decreased responsiveness to drug treatment, although the novel class of direct-acting antivirals such as telaprevir and boceprevir offer new hope in this regard. The prevalence of genotype 1 may also foreshadow heightened burden of hepatocellular carcinoma and elevated healthcare expenditures. More research is needed to characterize HCV infection and genotype in this population.

Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics

We introduce a conceptual bridge between the previously unlinked fields of phylogenetics and mathematical spatial ecology, which enables the spatial parameters of an emerging epidemic to be directly estimated from sampled pathogen genome sequences. By using phylogenetic history to correct for spatial autocorrelation, we illustrate how a fundamental spatial variable, the diffusion coefficient, can be estimated using robust nonparametric statistics, and how heterogeneity in dispersal can be readily quantified. We apply this framework to the spread of the West Nile virus across North America, an important recent instance of spatial invasion by an emerging infectious disease. We demonstrate that the dispersal of West Nile virus is greater and far more variable than previously measured, such that its dissemination was critically determined by rare, long-range movements that are unlikely to be discerned during field observations. Our results indicate that, by ignoring this heterogeneity, previous models of the epidemic have substantially overestimated its basic reproductive number. More generally, our approach demonstrates that easily obtainable genetic data can be used to measure the spatial dynamics of natural populations that are otherwise difficult or costly to quantify.

Effects of interferon therapy on development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

AIM

  The role of interferon (IFN) therapy on prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis remains controversial. This meta-analysis aimed to determine whether IFN therapy reduced the incidence of HCC in HCV-related cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

  We performed a meta-analysis including eight randomized controlled trials (RCT) (a total of 1505 patients) to assess the effect of IFN therapy on prevention of HCC in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. The pooled odds ratios (OR) were calculated using a random or fixed effects model.

RESULTS

  Our results showed that IFN therapy significantly decreased the overall HCC incidence in HCV-related cirrhotic patients (OR, 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10-0.80; P = 0.02). HCC risk in patients who failed to achieve sustained virological response (SVR) in the initial IFN-based treatment was also reduced by maintenance IFN therapy (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.32-0.90; P = 0.02). Subgroup analysis indicated that IFN therapy decreased HCC incidence in HCV-related cirrhotic patients during long-term follow up (>48 months) evidently (OR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.09-0.67; P = 0.006). However, subgroup analysis of four RCT with short-term follow up (≤48 months) did not demonstrate the significant difference in HCC incidence between IFN-treated cirrhotic patients and controls (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.39-1.55; P = 0.48).

CONCLUSION

  The present study suggested that IFN therapy could efficiently reduce HCC development in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis; this effect was more evident in the subgroup of patients with long-term follow up (>48 months). Patients who received maintenance IFN therapy had a lower risk of HCC than controls.

Estimating the origin and evolution characteristics for Korean HIV type 1 subtype B using Bayesian phylogenetic analysis

The majority of Korean human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) isolates are composed of the Korean clade B strain that is distinct from the subtype B prevalent in North America and Europe. However, it is still not clear how HIV-1 was introduced, transmitted, and evolved within the Korean population. To identify the evolutionary characteristics of Korean HIV-1, we estimate the molecular epidemic history of HIV-1 subtype B gp120 env in Korea in comparison with sequences isolated from other geographic locations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) statistical inference was used to estimate the time of divergence of subtype B. The estimated time of divergence of subtype B and the distinct monophyletic Korean B cluster was estimated to be in the early and mid-1960s, respectively. Substitution rates were estimated at 7.3×10(-3) and 8.0×10(-3) substitutions per site per year for HIV-1 subtype B and Korean clade B, respectively. The demographic dynamics of two Korean data sets showed that the effective number of infections in Korea increased rapidly until the early 1980s, and then the rate only slowly increased until the mid-1990s when the population growth approached a steady-state. These results suggest that the growth rate of prevalent HIV-1 strains in Korea was lower than in other countries, suggesting that the evolution of HIV-1 Korean clade B was relatively slow. Furthermore, the limited transmission of HIV-1 within the Korean population likely led to the independent evolution of this virus to form the HIV-1 Korean clade B.

Phylogeography, risk factors and genetic history of hepatitis C virus in Gabon, central Africa

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological and molecular characteristics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the general population have been poorly investigated in Africa. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, genotype distribution and epidemic history of HCV in the Gabonese general population.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 4042 sera collected from adults in 220 villages in all nine administrative areas of the country were screened for antibodies to HCV. HCV NS5B region sequencing was performed for molecular characterization and population genetic analyses. Of 4042 tested sera, 455 (11.2%) were positive. The seroprevalence of HCV varied significantly by administrative area, with the highest rate in Ogooué-Lolo province (20.4%) and the lowest in Ogooué-Maritine province (3.7%). History of parenteral injections, past hospital admission and age over 55 years were independent risk factors for HCV infection (p<0.0001). Phylogenetic analyses showed that 91.9% of the strains were genotype 4 (HCV-4), 5.7% genotype 1 and 2.2% genotype 2. HCV-4 strains were highly heterogeneous, with more than eight subtypes; subtype 4e predominated (57.3%). Coalescence analyses indicated that subtype 4e was the oldest, with an estimated most recent common ancestor of 1702 [95% CI, 1418-1884]. The epidemic profile indicated that it spread exponentially during the first part of the 20th century, probably by iatrogenic transmission.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These results confirm the endemicity of HCV subtype 4e in Gabon and show that its spread is due to a cohort effect, with previous, possibly iatrogenic events. More extensive epidemiological studies are needed to better characterize the route of transmission and the dissemination of HCV in Gabon.

Phylodynamic analysis of a viral infection network

Viral infections by sexual and droplet transmission routes typically spread through a complex host-to-host contact network. Clarifying the transmission network and epidemiological parameters affecting the variations and dynamics of a specific pathogen is a major issue in the control of infectious diseases. However, conventional methods such as interview and/or classical phylogenetic analysis of viral gene sequences have inherent limitations and often fail to detect infectious clusters and transmission connections. Recent improvements in computational environments now permit the analysis of large datasets. In addition, novel analytical methods have been developed that serve to infer the evolutionary dynamics of virus genetic diversity using sample date information and sequence data. This type of framework, termed "phylodynamics," helps connect some of the missing links on viral transmission networks, which are often hard to detect by conventional methods of epidemiology. With sufficient number of sequences available, one can use this new inference method to estimate theoretical epidemiological parameters such as temporal distributions of the primary infection, fluctuation of the pathogen population size, basic reproductive number, and the mean time span of disease infectiousness. Transmission networks estimated by this framework often have the properties of a scale-free network, which are characteristic of infectious and social communication processes. Network analysis based on phylodynamics has alluded to various suggestions concerning the infection dynamics associated with a given community and/or risk behavior. In this review, I will summarize the current methods available for identifying the transmission network using phylogeny, and present an argument on the possibilities of applying the scale-free properties to these existing frameworks.

Colonial history and contemporary transmission shape the genetic diversity of hepatitis C virus genotype 2 in Amsterdam

Evolutionary analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genome sequences has provided insights into the epidemic history and transmission of this widespread human pathogen. Here we report an exceptionally diverse set of 178 HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) isolates from 189 patients in Amsterdam, comprising 8 distinct HCV subtypes and 10 previously not recognized, unclassified lineages. By combining study subjects' demographic information with phylogeographic and molecular clock analyses, we demonstrate for the first time that the trans-Atlantic slave trade and colonial history were the driving forces behind the global dissemination of HCV-2. We detect multiple HCV-2 movements from present-day Ghana/Benin to the Caribbean during the peak years of the slave trade (1700 to 1850) and extensive transfer of HCV-2 among the Netherlands and its former colonies Indonesia and Surinam over the last 150 years. The latter coincides with the bidirectional migration of Javanese workers between Indonesia and Surinam and subsequent immigration to the Netherlands. In addition, our study sheds light on contemporary trends in HCV transmission within the Netherlands. We observe multiple lineages of the epidemic subtypes 2a, 2b, and 2c (together 67% of HCV-2 infections in Amsterdam), which cluster according to their suspected routes of transmission, specifically, injecting drug use (IDU) and contaminated blood/blood products. Understanding the epidemiological processes that generated the global pattern of HCV diversity seen today is critical for exposing associations between populations, risk factors, and specific HCV subtypes and might help HCV screening and prevention campaigns to minimize the future burden of HCV-related liver disease.

Agent-based and phylogenetic analyses reveal how HIV-1 moves between risk groups: injecting drug users sustain the heterosexual epidemic in Latvia

Injecting drug users (IDUs) are a driving force for the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia and other Baltic States, accounting for a majority of cases. However, in recent years, heterosexual cases have increased disproportionately. It is unclear how the changes in incidence patterns in Latvia can be explained, and how important IDUs are for the heterosexual sub-epidemic. We introduce a novel epidemic model and use phylogenetic analyses in parallel to examine the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia between 1987 and 2010. Using a hybrid framework with a mean-field description for the susceptible population and an agent-based model for the infecteds, we track infected individuals and follow transmission histories dynamically formed during the simulation. The agent-based simulations and the phylogenetic analysis show that more than half of the heterosexual transmissions in Latvia were caused by IDU, which sustain the heterosexual epidemic. Indeed, we find that heterosexual clusters are characterized by short transmission chains with up to 63% of the chains dying out after the first introduction. In the simulations, the distribution of transmission chain sizes follows a power law distribution, which is confirmed by the phylogenetic data. Our models indicate that frequent introductions reduced the extinction probability of an autonomously spreading heterosexual HIV-1 epidemic, which now has the potential to dominate the spread of the overall epidemic in the future. Furthermore, our model shows that social heterogeneity of the susceptible population can explain the shift in HIV-1 incidence in Latvia over the course of the epidemic. Thus, the decrease in IDU incidence may be due to local heterogeneities in transmission, rather than the implementation of control measures. Increases in susceptibles, through social or geographic movement of IDU, could lead to a boost in HIV-1 infections in this risk group. Targeting individuals that bridge social groups would help prevent further spread of the epidemic.

Epidemic history of hepatitis C virus infection in two remote communities in Nigeria, West Africa

We investigated the molecular epidemiology and population dynamics of HCV infection among indigenes of two semi-isolated communities in North-Central Nigeria. Despite remoteness and isolation, ~15% of the population had serological or molecular markers of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Phylogenetic analysis of the NS5b sequences obtained from 60 HCV-infected residents showed that HCV variants belonged to genotype 1 (n=51; 85%) and genotype 2 (n=9; 15%). All sequences were unique and intermixed in the phylogenetic tree with HCV sequences from people infected from other West African countries. The high-throughput 454 pyrosequencing of the HCV hypervariable region 1 and an empirical threshold error correction algorithm were used to evaluate intra-host heterogeneity of HCV strains of genotype 1 (n=43) and genotype 2 (n=6) from residents of the communities. Analysis revealed a rare detectable intermixing of HCV intra-host variants among residents. Identification of genetically close HCV variants among all known groups of relatives suggests a common intra-familial HCV transmission in the communities. Applying Bayesian coalescent analysis to the NS5b sequences, the most recent common ancestors for genotype 1 and 2 variants were estimated to have existed 675 and 286 years ago, respectively. Bayesian skyline plots suggest that HCV lineages of both genotypes identified in the Nigerian communities experienced epidemic growth for 200-300 years until the mid-20th century. The data suggest a massive introduction of numerous HCV variants to the communities during the 20th century in the background of a dynamic evolutionary history of the hepatitis C epidemic in Nigeria over the past three centuries.

Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data

Using sequence data to infer population dynamics is playing an increasing role in the analysis of outbreaks. The most common methods in use, based on coalescent inference, have been widely used but not extensively tested against simulated epidemics. Here, we use simulated data to test the ability of both parametric and non-parametric methods for inference of effective population size (coded in the popular BEAST package) to reconstruct epidemic dynamics. We consider a range of simulations centred on scenarios considered plausible for pandemic influenza, but our conclusions are generic for any exponentially growing epidemic. We highlight systematic biases in non-parametric effective population size estimation. The most prominent such bias leads to the false inference of slowing of epidemic spread in the recent past even when the real epidemic is growing exponentially. We suggest some sampling strategies that could reduce (but not eliminate) some of the biases. Parametric methods can correct for these biases if the infected population size is large. We also explore how some poor sampling strategies (e.g. that over-represent epidemiologically linked clusters of cases) could dramatically exacerbate bias in an uncontrolled manner. Finally, we present a simple diagnostic indicator, based on coalescent density and which can easily be applied to reconstructed phylogenies, that identifies time-periods for which effective population size estimates are less likely to be biased. We illustrate this with an application to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

Near-full genome characterization of unclassified hepatitis C virus strains relating to genotypes 1 and 4

Near-full genome sequences are presented in this report for the first time of unclassified HCV strains amplified using RT-PCR from plasma of patients living in Cyprus. One strain appears to be a unique genotype-1-like isolate, displaying closer phylogenetic relationship to genotype 1 strains than other genotypes. Two isolates representing an unclassified variant of genotype 4 were also amplified, cases of which have been found elsewhere in the world in patients of central African origin and could now be assigned provisionally as new subtype 4v. The near-full genome nucleotide sequences of unclassified HCV isolates provide reference sequences of variants unknown previously, and contribute to the publicly available HCV sequence data to be used for diagnosis or research.

Hepatitis C virus infection in the Middle East and North Africa "MENA" region: injecting drug users (IDUs) is an under-investigated population

PURPOSE

Investigation of the injecting drug users (IDUs) population is becoming extremely critical and timely in light of the recent evidence that IDUs now act as the core of hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemics in developed countries. The purpose of this article, therefore, is not only to review the epidemiology of HCV in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, but also to see whether IDUs were adequately studied and whether harm reduction strategies to be applied for their protection have been set.

METHODS

A literature review was carried out of articles published within the last decade on HCV infection.

RESULTS

The gathered data showed that the population of IDUs is severely under-investigated throughout the whole region, possibly due to religious and cultural impediments.

CONCLUSION

In order to reduce the risk of HCV infection in IDUs, a set of recommendations are advanced emphasizing the urgent need for bio-behavioral studies in this population in order to help identify the source and mode of transmission and the genotypes of HCV involved. These results may allow the development of effective and, yet, socially acceptable intervention strategies. We believe that the role which IDUs play in sustaining HCV infection is also an under-investigated topic in many developing countries. Similar reviews and, hence, interventions should be initiated in these regions.

New insights regarding HCV-NS5A structure/function and indication of genotypic differences

Background

HCV is prevalent throughout the world. It is a major cause of chronic liver disease. There is no effective vaccine and the most common therapy, based on Peginterferon, has a success rate of ~50%. The mechanisms underlying viral resistance have not been elucidated but it has been suggested that both host and virus contribute to therapy outcome. Non-structural 5A (NS5A) protein, a critical virus component, is involved in cellular and viral processes.

Methods

The present study analyzed structural and functional features of 345 sequences of HCV-NS5A genotypes 1 or 3, using in silico tools.

Results

There was residue type composition and secondary structure differences between the genotypes. In addition, second structural variance were statistical different for each response group in genotype 3. A motif search indicated conserved glycosylation, phosphorylation and myristoylation sites that could be important in structural stabilization and function. Furthermore, a highly conserved integrin ligation site was identified, and could be linked to nuclear forms of NS5A. ProtFun indicated NS5A to have diverse enzymatic and nonenzymatic activities, participating in a great range of cell functions, with statistical difference between genotypes.

Conclusion

This study presents new insights into the HCV-NS5A. It is the first study that using bioinformatics tools, suggests differences between genotypes and response to therapy that can be related to NS5A protein features. Therefore, it emphasizes the importance of using bioinformatics tools in viral studies. Data acquired herein will aid in clarifying the structure/function of this protein and in the development of antiviral agents.

Does history repeat itself? Wavelets and the phylodynamics of influenza A

Unprecedented global surveillance of viruses will result in massive sequence data sets that require new statistical methods. These data sets press the limits of Bayesian phylogenetics as the high-dimensional parameters that comprise a phylogenetic tree increase the already sizable computational burden of these techniques. This burden often results in partitioning the data set, for example, by gene, and inferring the evolutionary dynamics of each partition independently, a compromise that results in stratified analyses that depend only on data within a given partition. However, parameter estimates inferred from these stratified models are likely strongly correlated, considering they rely on data from a single data set. To overcome this shortfall, we exploit the existing Monte Carlo realizations from stratified Bayesian analyses to efficiently estimate a nonparametric hierarchical wavelet-based model and learn about the time-varying parameters of effective population size that reflect levels of genetic diversity across all partitions simultaneously. Our methods are applied to complete genome influenza A sequences that span 13 years. We find that broad peaks and trends, as opposed to seasonal spikes, in the effective population size history distinguish individual segments from the complete genome. We also address hypotheses regarding intersegment dynamics within a formal statistical framework that accounts for correlation between segment-specific parameters.

Phylogenetic and epidemic modeling of rapidly evolving infectious diseases

Epidemic modeling of infectious diseases has a long history in both theoretical and empirical research. However the recent explosion of genetic data has revealed the rapid rate of evolution that many populations of infectious agents undergo and has underscored the need to consider both evolutionary and ecological processes on the same time scale. Mathematical epidemiology has applied dynamical models to study infectious epidemics, but these models have tended not to exploit--or take into account--evolutionary changes and their effect on the ecological processes and population dynamics of the infectious agent. On the other hand, statistical phylogenetics has increasingly been applied to the study of infectious agents. This approach is based on phylogenetics, molecular clocks, genealogy-based population genetics and phylogeography. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo and related computational tools have been the primary source of advances in these statistical phylogenetic approaches. Recently the first tentative steps have been taken to reconcile these two theoretical approaches. We survey the Bayesian phylogenetic approach to epidemic modeling of infection diseases and describe the contrasts it provides to mathematical epidemiology as well as emphasize the significance of the future unification of these two fields.

Reconstruction of the epidemic history of hepatitis B virus genotype D in Albania

Despite a recent decrease in the prevalence of HBsAg in the general population, Albania is still highly endemic for HBV infection. Genotype D is the most prevalent HBV strain in the Mediterranean area. We studied the prevalence and distribution of HBV genotypes and subgenotypes in a total of 73 HBsAg-positive patients living in Albania, and reconstructed the epidemiological history of the most prevalent HBV D subgenotype using a "phylodynamic" framework. A time-scaled genealogy of the Albanian patients' and reference P gene sequences with known sampling dates was reconstructed using an MCMC Bayesian approach that allows population growth to be estimated on the basis of coalescent theory. All of the Albanian subjects were infected with the HBV D genotype, and a percentage varying from 44.4% to 100% (depending on the ethnic or risk group) were infected with subgenotype D2, the most prevalent in the study population (72.4%). The other subgenotypes present in a minority of subjects were D1 (13.8%) and D3 (13.8%). The Bayesian skyline plot population dynamics analysis showed that genotype D2 entered the Albanian population in the late 1960s, and that the effective number of infections grew gradually until the second half of the 1980s and more rapidly until the mid-1990s, when it reached a plateau that still persists today. Our data suggest that political and socio-economic factors played an important role in determining the rapid spread of HBV infection in Albania.

Origin and evolution of the unique hepatitis C virus circulating recombinant form 2k/1b

Since its initial identification in St. Petersburg, Russia, the recombinant hepatitis C virus (HCV) 2k/1b has been isolated from several countries throughout Eurasia. The 2k/1b strain is the only recombinant HCV to have spread widely, raising questions about the epidemiological background in which it first appeared. In order to further understand the circumstances by which HCV recombinants might be formed and spread, we estimated the date of the recombination event that generated the 2k/1b strain using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach. Our study incorporates newly isolated 2k/1b strains from Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and has employed a hierarchical Bayesian framework to combine information from different genomic regions. We estimate that 2k/1b originated sometime between 1923 and 1956, substantially before the first detection of the strain in 1999. The timescale and the geographic spread of 2k/1b suggest that it originated in the former Soviet Union at about the time that the world's first centralized national blood transfusion and storage service was being established. We also reconstructed the epidemic history of 2k/1b using coalescent theory-based methods, matching patterns previously reported for other epidemic HCV subtypes. This study demonstrates the practicality of jointly estimating dates of recombination from flanking regions of the breakpoint and further illustrates that rare genetic-exchange events can be particularly informative about the underlying epidemiological processes.

Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C infection in Cyprus within the general population and high-risk cohorts

Background

Initial data on the molecular epidemiology of HCV infection in Cyprus showed a highly polyphyletic infection and multiple points of introduction into the general population. The continuation and expansion of this investigation is presented here including high risk groups.

Findings

The samples include additional subjects from the general population, a group of inmates and HIV/HCV coinfected individuals, whose strains were amplified by RT-PCR and sequenced in partial Core-E1 and NS5B regions. The results confirm the broad genotype distribution and polyphyletic infection on the island, and no new subtypes were found. Monophyletic clusters between strains of the prisoners and the injecting drug users imply sharing of infected equipment, and highlight the risk of widespread transmission in these cohorts, although no spill-over to the general population was observed.

Conclusions

The results of this study underline the impact of population movements and high-risk population groups on the changing molecular epidemiology of HCV, with strains moving to Europe from Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe by means of immigration and modern transmission routes.

Impact of host responses on control of hepatitis C virus infection in Chinese blood donors

A study was undertaken to explore the molecular mechanisms underlying control of HCV infection in blood donors in China. Factors including clinical information, anti-HCV reactivity (S/CO), IFN-α and IFN-γ, viral loads and genotypes were correlated with 160 index plasma samples at three statuses of 45 recovered, 76 chronic or 39 false positive anti-HCV reactive blood donors. The spontaneous recovery rate was 37.2%. Viral loads of 76 HCV plasmas ranged between 59.8 IU/ml and 2.43 × 10(6)IU/ml (median 3.67 × 10(4)IU/ml). Genotypes 1, 2, 3 and 6 of 63 HCV strains were identified phylogenetically. Recovered donors were significantly younger (p=0.002) and had lower level IFN-γ (p=0.001) than chronically HCV infected donors. Circulating levels of IFN-α and IFN-γ were higher in those with low viral load and were low in middle or high viral load samples. The ratio of IFN-α to IFN-γ (IFN-α/γ) was significantly positively correlated with viral load (p=0.037), and viral load was inversely correlated with IFN-γ in chronic HCV infection regardless of genotype. The study revealed clearly different relationships between IFN-α and IFN-γ in relation to viral load in HCV. A novel measure of IFN-α/γ ratio could be a new approach to evaluate long term outcome of HCV infection.

Rates of coalescence for common epidemiological models at equilibrium

Coalescent theory provides a mathematical framework for quantitatively interpreting gene genealogies. With the increased availability of molecular sequence data, disease ecologists now regularly apply this body of theory to viral phylogenies, most commonly in attempts to reconstruct demographic histories of infected individuals and to estimate parameters such as the basic reproduction number. However, with few exceptions, the mathematical expressions at the core of coalescent theory have not been explicitly linked to the structure of epidemiological models, which are commonly used to mathematically describe the transmission dynamics of a pathogen. Here, we aim to make progress towards establishing this link by presenting a general approach for deriving a model's rate of coalescence under the assumption that the disease dynamics are at their endemic equilibrium. We apply this approach to four common families of epidemiological models: standard susceptible-infected-susceptible/susceptible-infected-recovered/susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible models, models with individual heterogeneity in infectivity, models with an exposed but not yet infectious class and models with variable distributions of the infectious period. These results improve our understanding of how epidemiological processes shape viral genealogies, as well as how these processes affect levels of viral diversity and rates of genetic drift. Finally, we discuss how a subset of these coalescent rate expressions can be used for phylodynamic inference in non-equilibrium settings. For the ones that are limited to equilibrium conditions, we also discuss why this is the case. These results, therefore, point towards necessary future work while providing intuition on how epidemiological characteristics of the infection process impact gene genealogies.

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Molecular phylogenetics of the lyssaviruses--insights from a coalescent approach

Technical improvements over the past 2 decades have enormously facilitated the generation of nucleotide sequence data for lyssavirus collections. These databases are amenable to methods of phylogenetic analysis, which attempt to define the taxonomic structure of this genus and predict the evolutionary relationships of current circulating strains. Coupled with a range of mathematical tools to explore the appropriateness of nucleotide substitution models and test for positive selection, the evolutionary process is being explored in detail. Despite the potential for high viral mutation levels, the operation of purifying selection appears to effectively constrain lyssavirus evolution. The recent development of coalescent theory has provided additional approaches to data analysis whereby the time frame of emergence of viral lineages can be most reliably estimated. Such studies suggest that all currently circulating rabies viruses have emerged within the past 1500 years. Moreover, through the capability of analyzing viral population dynamics and determining patterns of population size variation, coalescent approaches can provide insight into the demographics of viral outbreaks. Whereas human-assisted movement of reservoir host species has clearly facilitated transfer of rabies between continents, topographical landscape features significantly influence the rate and extent of contiguous disease spread. Together with empirical studies on virus diversity, the application of coalescent approaches will help to better understand lyssavirus emergence, evolution, and spread. In particular, such methods are presently facilitating exploration of the factors operating to limit the ability of lyssaviruses to establish new persistent virus-host associations and ultimately control the emergence of new species of this genus.

Inference for nonlinear epidemiological models using genealogies and time series

Phylodynamics - the field aiming to quantitatively integrate the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving populations like those of RNA viruses - increasingly relies upon coalescent approaches to infer past population dynamics from reconstructed genealogies. As sequence data have become more abundant, these approaches are beginning to be used on populations undergoing rapid and rather complex dynamics. In such cases, the simple demographic models that current phylodynamic methods employ can be limiting. First, these models are not ideal for yielding biological insight into the processes that drive the dynamics of the populations of interest. Second, these models differ in form from mechanistic and often stochastic population dynamic models that are currently widely used when fitting models to time series data. As such, their use does not allow for both genealogical data and time series data to be considered in tandem when conducting inference. Here, we present a flexible statistical framework for phylodynamic inference that goes beyond these current limitations. The framework we present employs a recently developed method known as particle MCMC to fit stochastic, nonlinear mechanistic models for complex population dynamics to gene genealogies and time series data in a Bayesian framework. We demonstrate our approach using a nonlinear Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease and show through simulations that it provides accurate estimates of past disease dynamics and key epidemiological parameters from genealogies with or without accompanying time series data.

The mode and tempo of hepatitis C virus evolution within and among hosts

Background

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a rapidly-evolving RNA virus that establishes chronic infections in humans. Despite the virus' public health importance and a wealth of sequence data, basic aspects of HCV molecular evolution remain poorly understood. Here we investigate three sets of whole HCV genomes in order to directly compare the evolution of whole HCV genomes at different biological levels: within- and among-hosts. We use a powerful Bayesian inference framework that incorporates both among-lineage rate heterogeneity and phylogenetic uncertainty into estimates of evolutionary parameters.

Results

Most of the HCV genome evolves at ~0.001 substitutions/site/year, a rate typical of RNA viruses. The antigenically-important E1/E2 genome region evolves particularly quickly, with correspondingly high rates of positive selection, as inferred using two related measures. Crucially, in this region an exceptionally higher rate was observed for within-host evolution compared to among-host evolution. Conversely, higher rates of evolution were seen among-hosts for functionally relevant parts of the NS5A gene. There was also evidence for slightly higher evolutionary rate for HCV subtype 1a compared to subtype 1b.

Conclusions

Using new statistical methods and comparable whole genome datasets we have quantified, for the first time, the variation in HCV evolutionary dynamics at different scales of organisation. This confirms that differences in molecular evolution between biological scales are not restricted to HIV and may represent a common feature of chronic RNA viral infection. We conclude that the elevated rate observed in the E1/E2 region during within-host evolution more likely results from the reversion of host-specific adaptations (resulting in slower long-term among-host evolution) than from the preferential transmission of slowly-evolving lineages.

Phylodynamics of hepatitis C virus subtype 2c in the province of Córdoba, Argentina

The Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 subtype 2c (HCV-2c) is detected as a low prevalence subtype in many countries, except in Southern Europe and Western Africa. The current epidemiology of HCV in Argentina, a low-prevalence country, shows the expected low prevalence for this subtype. However, this subtype is the most prevalent in the central province of Córdoba. Cruz del Eje (CdE), a small rural city of this province, shows a prevalence for HCV infections of 5%, being 90% of the samples classified as HCV-2c. In other locations of Córdoba Province (OLC) with lower prevalence for HCV, HCV-2c was recorded in about 50% of the samples. The phylogenetic analysis of samples from Córdoba Province consistently conformed a monophyletic group with HCV-2c sequences from all the countries where HCV-2c has been sequenced. The phylogeographic analysis showed an overall association between geographical traits and phylogeny, being these associations significant (α = 0.05) for Italy, France, Argentina (places other than Córdoba), Martinique, CdE and OLC. The coalescence analysis for samples from CdE, OLC and France yielded a Time for the Most Common Recent Ancestor of about 140 years, whereas its demographic reconstruction showed a “lag” phase in the viral population until 1880 and then an exponential growth until 1940. These results were also obtained when each geographical area was analyzed separately, suggesting that HCV-2c came into Córdoba province during the migration process, mainly from Europe, which is compatible with the history of Argentina of the early 20th century. This also suggests that the spread of HCV-2c occurred in Europe and South America almost simultaneously, possibly as a result of the advances in medicine technology of the first half of the 20th century.

The global epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma: present and future

The global risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been largely driven by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection for the past century, along with hepatitis C virus (HCV), aflatoxin, excessive alcohol consumption, and obesity/diabetes. The dominant effect of HBV on global HCC risk should decline as the population vaccinated against HBV grows older. Infection with HCV is also expected to decline. Projections of HCV-related HCC rates remaining high for another 30 years may be overly pessimistic. Alcohol may be less of a factor in HCC in coming years. However, obesity and diabetes may become even more important risk factors for HCC.

Reconstruction of the evolutionary dynamics of the hepatitis C virus 1b epidemic in Turkey

Worldwide, 12.5% of the more than 170 million people infected by hepatitis C virus (HCV), live in Eastern Mediterranean countries. In Turkey, the prevalence of HCV infection ranges from 0.3% to 0.4% of the general population. We investigated the distribution of HCV subtype 1b in Turkey by analysing the NS5b viral genomic region, using a Bayesian coalescent-based framework and phylogeographical analysis to estimate the origin of the HCV 1b subtype epidemic and the genetic diversification of the virus in Turkey. The dataset consisted of 24 NS5b sequences obtained from patients chronically infected with HCV subtype 1b admitted to the different health districts of Ankara hospital plus the reference sequences for phylogenetic analysis. An independent dataset including the same 342-nt NS5b fragment from all over the world (203 sequences) was used to calibrate the evolutionary rate. Using the relaxed clock model, we estimated a mean evolutionary rate of 0.84 × 10(-3) sub/site/year (95% highest posterior density interval HPD 0.16-1.5 × 10(-3)). The results of the phylogeographical analysis suggested that the HCV epidemic probably originated in Greece during the first decade of 1900 and, a few years later (in the 1920s or 1930s), successfully spread to neighboring countries such as Turkey and Cyprus. The clustering of the majority of the Turkish strains in a single monophyletic group suggests the subsequent segregated circulation of the virus in the country during the years 1940-1999, which was probably due to unsafe medical parenteral procedures, with drug addiction playing a relatively negligible role. The Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) showed a growth in the number of effective infections between the 1940s and the 1990s, when the curve reached a plateau that still remains today, suggesting a partial success of improved transfusional policies. A coalescent-based approach to population dynamics can improve our understanding of the origin and spread of epidemics in a limited geographical area.

Genetic history of hepatitis C virus in Venezuela: high diversity and long time of evolution of HCV genotype 2

BACKGROUND

The subtype diversity of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes is unknown in Venezuela.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Partial sequencing of the NS5B region was performed in 310 isolates circulating in patients from 1995 to 2007. In the samples collected between 2005 and 2007, HCV genotype 1 (G1) was the most common genotype (63%), composed as expected of mainly G1a and G1b. G2 was the second most common genotype (33%), being G2a almost absent and G2j the most frequent subtype. Sequence analysis of the core region confirmed the subtype assignment performed within the NS5b region in 63 isolates. The complete genome sequence of G2j was obtained. G2j has been described in France, Canada and Burkina Fasso, but it was not found in Martinique, where several subtypes of G2 circulate in the general population. Bayesian coalescence analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of G2j around 1785, before the introduction of G1b (1869) and G1a (1922). While HCV G1a and G1b experienced a growth reduction since 1990, coincident with the time when blood testing was implemented in Venezuela, HCV G2j did not seem to reach growth equilibrium during this period.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Assuming the introduction of G2j from Africa during the slave trade, the high frequency of G2j found in Venezuela could suggest: 1- the introduction of African ethnic groups different from the ones introduced to Martinique or 2- the occurrence of a founder effect. This study represents an in-depth analysis of the subtype diversity of HCV in Venezuela, which is still unexplored in the Americas and deserves further studies.

Does chemotherapy prevent HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma? Pros

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, which seems to have spread worldwide recently, is now the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in various geographic areas. The primary prevention of HCV-related HCC includes strategies for the prevention of HCV infection and those for viral eradication. Even after HCC development, short-term prognosis of patients has been much improved recently due to advances in early diagnosis and treatment. However, long-term prognosis is as yet far from satisfactory due to frequent recurrence of HCC even after apparently curative treatment, either local ablation or surgical resection. At least theoretically, strategies similar to those of primary prevention may be applicable to HCC recurrence. In this review, we summarized the reported favorable effects of chemotherapy on primary and tertiary prevention of HCC.

Social networks shape the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C virus

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects 170 million people worldwide, and is a major public health problem in Brazil, where over 1% of the population may be infected and where multiple viral genotypes co-circulate. Chronically infected individuals are both the source of transmission to others and are at risk for HCV-related diseases, such as liver cancer and cirrhosis. Before the adoption of anti-HCV control measures in blood banks, this virus was mainly transmitted via blood transfusion. Today, needle sharing among injecting drug users is the most common form of HCV transmission. Of particular importance is that HCV prevalence is growing in non-risk groups. Since there is no vaccine against HCV, it is important to determine the factors that control viral transmission in order to develop more efficient control measures. However, despite the health costs associated with HCV, the factors that determine the spread of virus at the epidemiological scale are often poorly understood. Here, we sequenced partial NS5b gene sequences sampled from blood samples collected from 591 patients in São Paulo state, Brazil. We show that different viral genotypes entered São Paulo at different times, grew at different rates, and are associated with different age groups and risk behaviors. In particular, subtype 1b is older and grew more slowly than subtypes 1a and 3a, and is associated with multiple age classes. In contrast, subtypes 1a and 3b are associated with younger people infected more recently, possibly with higher rates of sexual transmission. The transmission dynamics of HCV in São Paulo therefore vary by subtype and are determined by a combination of age, risk exposure and underlying social network. We conclude that social factors may play a key role in determining the rate and pattern of HCV spread, and should influence future intervention policies.

An overview about hepatitis C: a devastating virus

Hepatitis C (HCV) is the disease that has affected around 200 million people globally. HCV is a life threatening human pathogen, not only because of its high prevalence and worldwide burden but also because of the potentially serious complications of persistent HCV infection. Chronicity of the disease leads to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and end-stage liver disease. HCV positive hepatocytes vary between less than 5% and up to 100%, indicating the high rate of replication of viral RNA. HCV has a very high mutational rate that enables it to escape the immune system. Viral diversity has two levels; the genotypes and Quasiaspecies. Major HCV genotypes constitute genotype 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 while more than 50 subtypes are known. All HCV genotypes have their particular patterns of geographical distribution and a slight drift in viral population has been observed in some parts of the globe.

Use of phylogenetics in the molecular epidemiology and evolutionary studies of viral infections

Since DNA sequencing techniques first became available almost 30 years ago, the amount of nucleic acid sequence data has increased enormously. Phylogenetics, which is widely applied to compare and analyze such data, is particularly useful for the analysis of genes from rapidly evolving viruses. It has been used extensively to describe the molecular epidemiology and transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the origins and subsequent evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-associated coronavirus (SCoV), and, more recently, the evolving epidemiology of avian influenza as well as seasonal and pandemic human influenza viruses. Recent advances in phylogenetic methods can infer more in-depth information about the patterns of virus emergence, adding to the conventional approaches in viral epidemiology. Examples of this information include estimations (with confidence limits) of the actual time of the origin of a new viral strain or its emergence in a new species, viral recombination and reassortment events, the rate of population size change in a viral epidemic, and how the virus spreads and evolves within a specific population and geographical region. Such sequence-derived information obtained from the phylogenetic tree can assist in the design and implementation of public health and therapeutic interventions. However, application of many of these advanced phylogenetic methods are currently limited to specialized phylogeneticists and statisticians, mainly because of their mathematical basis and their dependence on the use of a large number of computer programs. This review attempts to bridge this gap by presenting conceptual, technical, and practical aspects of applying phylogenetic methods in studies of influenza, HIV, and SCoV. It aims to provide, with minimal mathematics and statistics, a practical overview of how phylogenetic methods can be incorporated into virological studies by clinical and laboratory specialists.

Phylodynamic reconstruction reveals norovirus GII.4 epidemic expansions and their molecular determinants

Noroviruses are the most common cause of viral gastroenteritis. An increase in the number of globally reported norovirus outbreaks was seen the past decade, especially for outbreaks caused by successive genogroup II genotype 4 (GII.4) variants. Whether this observed increase was due to an upswing in the number of infections, or to a surveillance artifact caused by heightened awareness and concomitant improved reporting, remained unclear. Therefore, we set out to study the population structure and changes thereof of GII.4 strains detected through systematic outbreak surveillance since the early 1990s. We collected 1383 partial polymerase and 194 full capsid GII.4 sequences. A Bayesian MCMC coalescent analysis revealed an increase in the number of GII.4 infections during the last decade. The GII.4 strains included in our analyses evolved at a rate of 4.3-9.0x10(-3) mutations per site per year, and share a most recent common ancestor in the early 1980s. Determinants of adaptation in the capsid protein were studied using different maximum likelihood approaches to identify sites subject to diversifying or directional selection and sites that co-evolved. While a number of the computationally determined adaptively evolving sites were on the surface of the capsid and possible subject to immune selection, we also detected sites that were subject to constrained or compensatory evolution due to secondary RNA structures, relevant in virus-replication. We highlight codons that may prove useful in identifying emerging novel variants, and, using these, indicate that the novel 2008 variant is more likely to cause a future epidemic than the 2007 variant. While norovirus infections are generally mild and self-limiting, more severe outcomes of infection frequently occur in elderly and immunocompromized people, and no treatment is available. The observed pattern of continually emerging novel variants of GII.4, causing elevated numbers of infections, is therefore a cause for concern.

High prevalence of hepatitis C virus genotype 1b infection in a small town of Argentina. Phylogenetic and Bayesian coalescent analysis

Previous studies in Argentina have documented a general prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection close to 2%. In addition, a high prevalence of HCV has been recently reported in different Argentinean small rural communities. In this work, we performed a study aimed at analyzing the origins and diversification patterns of an HCV outbreak in Wheelwright, a small rural town located in Santa Fe province (Argentina).A total of 89 out of 1814 blood samples collected from people living in Wheelwright, were positive for HCV infection. The highest prevalence (4.9%) was observed in people older than 50 years, with the highest level for the group aged between 70-79 years (22%). The RFLP analyses showed that 91% of the positive samples belonged to the HCV-1b genotype. The E1/E2 and NS5B genes were sequenced, and their phylogenetic analysis showed that the HCV-1b sequences from Wheelwright were monophyletic. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to estimate substitution rates and time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA). The mean estimated substitution rates and the tMRCA for E1/E2 with and without HVR1 and NS5B were 7.41E-03 s/s/y and 61 years, 5.05E-03 s/s/y and 58 years and 3.24E-03 s/s/y and 53 years, respectively. In summary, the tMRCA values, the demographic model with constant population size, and the fact that the highest prevalence of infection was observed in elder people support the hypothesis that the HCV-1b introduction in Wheelwright initially occurred at least five decades ago and that the early epidemic was characterized by a fast rate of virus transmission. The epidemic seems to have been controlled later on down to the standard transmission rates observed elsewhere.

The global spread of hepatitis C virus 1a and 1b: a phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to affect 130-180 million people worldwide. Although its origin is unknown, patterns of viral diversity suggest that HCV genotype 1 probably originated from West Africa. Previous attempts to estimate the spatiotemporal parameters of the virus, both globally and regionally, have suggested that epidemic HCV transmission began in 1900 and grew steadily until the late 1980s. However, epidemiological data suggest that the expansion of HCV may have occurred after the Second World War. The aim of our study was to elucidate the timescale and route of the global spread of HCV.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We show that the rarely sequenced HCV region (E2P7NS2) is more informative for molecular epidemiology studies than the more commonly used NS5B region. We applied phylodynamic methods to a substantial set of new E2P7NS2 and NS5B sequences, together with all available global HCV sequences with information in both of these genomic regions, in order to estimate the timescale and nature of the global expansion of the most prevalent HCV subtypes, 1a and 1b. We showed that transmission of subtypes 1a and 1b "exploded" between 1940 and 1980, with the spread of 1b preceding that of 1a by at least 16 y (95% confidence interval 15-17). Phylogeographic analysis of all available NS5B sequences suggests that HCV subtypes 1a and 1b disseminated from the developed world to the developing countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The evolutionary rate of HCV appears faster than previously suggested. The global spread of HCV coincided with the widespread use of transfused blood and blood products and with the expansion of intravenous drug use but slowed prior to the wide implementation of anti-HCV screening. Differences in the transmission routes associated with subtypes 1a and 1b provide an explanation of the relatively earlier expansion of 1b. Our data show that the most plausible route of the HCV dispersal was from developed countries to the developing world. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Rapid molecular evolution of human bocavirus revealed by Bayesian coalescent inference

Human bocavirus (HBoV) is a linear single-stranded DNA virus belonging to the Parvoviridae family that has recently been isolated from the upper respiratory tract of children with acute respiratory infection. All of the strains observed so far segregate into two genotypes (1 and 2) with a low level of polymorphism. Given the recent description of the infection and the lack of epidemiological and molecular data, we estimated the virus's rates of molecular evolution and population dynamics. A dataset of forty-nine dated VP2 sequences, including also eight new isolates obtained from pharyngeal swabs of Italian patients with acute respiratory tract infections, was submitted to phylogenetic analysis. The model parameters, evolutionary rates and population dynamics were co-estimated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, and site-specific positive and negative selection was also investigated. Recombination was investigated by seven different methods and one suspected recombinant strain was excluded from further analysis. The estimated mean evolutionary rate of HBoV was 8.6x10(-4)subs/site/year, and that of the 1st+2nd codon positions was more than 15 times less than that of the 3rd codon position. Viral population dynamics analysis revealed that the two known genotypes diverged recently (mean tMRCA: 24 years), and that the epidemic due to HBoV genotype 2 grew exponentially at a rate of 1.01year(-1). Selection analysis of the partial VP2 showed that 8.5% of sites were under significant negative pressure and the absence of positive selection. Our results show that, like other parvoviruses, HBoV is characterised by a rapid evolution. The low level of polymorphism is probably due to a relatively recent divergence between the circulating genotypes and strong purifying selection acting on viral antigens.

Emergence of hepatitis C virus genotype 4: phylogenetic analysis reveals three distinct epidemiological profiles

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4 (HCV-4) infection is considered to be difficult to treat and has become increasingly prevalent in European countries, including The Netherlands. Using a molecular epidemiological approach, the present study investigates the genetic diversity and evolutionary origin of HCV-4 in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Phylogenetic analysis of the NS5B sequences (668 bp) obtained from 133 patients newly diagnosed with HCV-4 infection over the period from 1999 to 2008 revealed eight distinct HCV-4 subtypes; the majority of HCV-4 isolates were of subtypes 4d (57%) and 4a (37%). Three distinct monophyletic clusters were identified, with each one having a specific epidemiological profile: (i) Egyptian immigrants infected with HCV-4a (n = 46), (ii) Dutch patients with a history of injecting drug use infected with HCV-4d (n = 44), and (iii) Dutch human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) infected with HCV-4d (n = 26). Subsequent molecular clock analyses confirmed that the emergence of HCV-4 within these three risk groups coincided with (i) the parenteral antischistosomal therapy campaigns in Egypt (1920 to 1960), (ii) the popularity of injecting drug use in The Netherlands (1960 to 1990), and (iii) the rise in high-risk sexual behavior among MSM after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (1996 onwards). Our data show that in addition to the influx of HCV-4 strains from countries where HCV-4 is endemic, the local spread of HCV-4d affecting injecting drug users and, in recent years, especially HIV-positive MSM will further increase the relative proportion of HCV-4-infected patients in The Netherlands. HCV-4-specific agents are drastically needed to improve treatment response rates and decrease the future burden of HCV-4-related disease.