Elemental Design of Alkali-Activated Materials with Solid Wastes Using Machine Learning

Understanding the strength development of alkali-activated materials (AAMs) with fly ash (FA) and granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) is crucial for designing high-performance AAMs. This study investigates the strength development mechanism of AAMs using machine learning. A total of 616 uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) data points from FA-GBFS-based AAM mixtures were collected from published literature to train four tree-based machine learning models. Among these models, Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) demonstrated the highest prediction accuracy, with a correlation coefficient (R-value) of 0.970 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.110 MPa on the test dataset. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis revealed that water content is the most influential variable in strength development, followed by curing periods. The study recommends a calcium-to-silicon ratio of around 1.3, a sodium-to-aluminum ratio slightly below 1, and a silicon-to-aluminum ratio slightly above 3 for optimal AAM performance. The proposed design model was validated through laboratory experiments with FA-GBFS-based AAM mixtures, confirming the model's reliability. This research provides novel insights into the strength development mechanism of AAMs and offers a practical guide for elemental design, potentially leading to more sustainable construction materials.

Late-life suicide: machine learning predictors from a large European longitudinal cohort

Background

People in late adulthood die by suicide at the highest rate worldwide. However, there are still no tools to help predict the risk of death from suicide in old age. Here, we leveraged the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) prospective dataset to train and test a machine learning model to identify predictors for suicide in late life.

Methods

Of more than 16,000 deaths recorded, 74 were suicides. We matched 73 individuals who died by suicide with people who died by accident, according to sex (28.8% female in the total sample), age at death (67 ± 16.4 years), suicidal ideation (measured with the EURO-D scale), and the number of chronic illnesses. A random forest algorithm was trained on demographic data, physical health, depression, and cognitive functioning to extract essential variables for predicting death from suicide and then tested on the test set.

Results

The random forest algorithm had an accuracy of 79% (95% CI 0.60-0.92, p = 0.002), a sensitivity of.80, and a specificity of.78. Among the variables contributing to the model performance, the three most important factors were how long the participant was ill before death, the frequency of contact with the next of kin and the number of offspring still alive.

Conclusions

Prospective clinical and social information can predict death from suicide with good accuracy in late adulthood. Most of the variables that surfaced as risk factors can be attributed to the construct of social connectedness, which has been shown to play a decisive role in suicide in late life.

A novel deep ensemble-based model with outlier removal and order-invariant ranking for carbon dioxide emission prediction

Excessive carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) emissions pose a formidable challenge, driving global climate change and necessitating urgent attention. Striking a balance between curbing CO 2 emissions and fostering economic growth hinges upon the ability to reliably forecast CO 2 emissions. Such forecasts are indispensable for policymakers as they endeavor to make informed decisions and proactively implement mitigation measures. In this research, we introduce an innovative deep ensemble prediction model for CO 2 emissions. This model is constructed around four parallel Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, complemented by a novel Multi-Layer Perception (MLP)-based ensemble framework, equipped with an outlier detection mechanism and an order-invariant ranking module. To enhance prediction accuracy and stability, a k-nearest neighbor (KNN)-based outlier detection module is employed to identify non-outliers and reasonable predictions for the ensemble models. Additionally, a novel feature ranking module is proposed to mitigate prediction fluctuations. The performance evaluation of our model is conducted using historical CO 2 emission data spanning from 1971 to 2021, encompassing six representative countries. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed methodology outperforms existing approaches across various evaluation metrics, offering considerably reduced prediction variances and greater stability. Moreover, long-term CO 2 emission predictions for the corresponding six countries have been provided, which might offer policymakers some basis for making decisions.

Solvent Dependence of Ionic Liquid-Based Pt Nanoparticle Synthesis: Machine Learning-Aided In-Line Monitoring in a Flow Reactor

Colloidal platinum nanoparticles (Pt NPs) possess a myriad of technologically relevant applications. A potentially sustainable route to synthesize Pt NPs is via polyol reduction in ionic liquid (IL) solvents; however, the development of this synthetic method is limited by the fact that reaction kinetics have not been investigated. In-line analysis in a flow reactor is an appealing approach to obtain such kinetic data; unfortunately, the optical featurelessness of Pt NPs in the visible spectrum complicates the direct analysis of flow chemistry products via ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) spectrophotometry. Here, we report a machine learning (ML)-based approach to analyze in-line UV-vis spectrophotometric data to determine Pt NP product concentrations. Using a benchtop flow reactor with ML-interpreted in-line analysis, we were able to investigate NP yield as a function of residence time for two IL solvents: 1-butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium triflate (BMPYRR-OTf) and 1-butyl-2-methylpyridinium triflate (BMPY-OTf). While these solvents are structurally similar, the polyol reduction shows radically different yields of Pt NPs depending on which solvent is used. The approach presented here will help develop an understanding of how the subtle differences in the molecular structures of these solvents lead to distinct reaction behavior. The accuracy of the ML prediction was validated by particle size analysis and the error was found to be as low as 4%. This approach is generalizable and has the potential to provide information on various reaction outcomes stemming from solvent effects, for example, differential yields, orders of reaction, rate coefficients, NP sizes, etc.

Diverse baleen whale acoustic occurrence around two sub-Antarctic islands: A tale of residents and visitors

Knowledge on the occurrence and behaviour of baleen whales around sub-Antarctic regions is limited, and usually based on short, seasonal sighting research from shore or research vessels and whaling records, neither of which provide accurate and comprehensive year-round perspectives of these animals' ecology. We investigated the seasonal acoustic occurrence and diel vocalizing pattern of baleen whales around the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) using passive acoustic monitoring data from mid-2021 to mid-2023, detecting six distinct baleen whale songs from Antarctic blue whales, Madagascan pygmy blue whales, fin whales, Antarctic minke whales, humpback whales, and sei whales. Antarctic blue and fin whales were detected year-round whereas the other species' songs were detected seasonally, including a new Antarctic minke whale bio-duck song sub-type described here for the first time. Antarctic minke and sei whales were more vocally active at night-time whereas the other species had no clear diel vocalizing patterns. Random forest models identified month and/or sea surface temperature as the most important predictors of all baleen whale acoustic occurrence. These novel results highlight the PEIs as a useful habitat for baleen whales given the number of species that inhabit or transit through this region.

Artificial intelligence uncertainty quantification in radiotherapy applications - A scoping review

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in radiotherapy (RT) is expanding rapidly. However, there exists a notable lack of clinician trust in AI models, underscoring the need for effective uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. The purpose of this study was to scope existing literature related to UQ in RT, identify areas of improvement, and determine future directions.

METHODS

We followed the PRISMA-ScR scoping review reporting guidelines. We utilized the population (human cancer patients), concept (utilization of AI UQ), context (radiotherapy applications) framework to structure our search and screening process. We conducted a systematic search spanning seven databases, supplemented by manual curation, up to January 2024. Our search yielded a total of 8980 articles for initial review. Manuscript screening and data extraction was performed in Covidence. Data extraction categories included general study characteristics, RT characteristics, AI characteristics, and UQ characteristics.

RESULTS

We identified 56 articles published from 2015 to 2024. 10 domains of RT applications were represented; most studies evaluated auto-contouring (50 %), followed by image-synthesis (13 %), and multiple applications simultaneously (11 %). 12 disease sites were represented, with head and neck cancer being the most common disease site independent of application space (32 %). Imaging data was used in 91 % of studies, while only 13 % incorporated RT dose information. Most studies focused on failure detection as the main application of UQ (60 %), with Monte Carlo dropout being the most commonly implemented UQ method (32 %) followed by ensembling (16 %). 55 % of studies did not share code or datasets.

CONCLUSION

Our review revealed a lack of diversity in UQ for RT applications beyond auto-contouring. Moreover, we identified a clear need to study additional UQ methods, such as conformal prediction. Our results may incentivize the development of guidelines for reporting and implementation of UQ in RT.

Salivary and Serum Analytes and Their Associations with Self-rated Health Among Healthy Young Adults

BACKGROUND

Understanding the biological processes underlying poor self-rated health (SRH) can inform prevention efforts. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of using self-reported measures and self-collected biospecimens, such as saliva, to understand physiological functioning and assist with health surveillance and promotion. However, the associations between salivary analytes and SRH remain understudied. The current study addresses this gap.

METHODS

In a laboratory-based study, 99 healthy adults (Mage = 23.8 years, SD = 4.5, 55% men, 43% non-Hispanic White) reported their SRH and provided saliva and blood samples that were assayed for adiponectin, C-reactive protein (CRP), uric acid (UA), and cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α). Principal component analyses assessed the component loadings and generated factor scores for saliva and serum analytes. Binary logistic regressions examined the associations between these components and poor SRH.

RESULTS

Salivary analytes loaded onto two components (component 1: adiponectin and cytokines; component 2: CRP and UA) explaining 58% of the variance. Serum analytes grouped onto three components (component 1: IL-8 and TNF-α; component 2: CRP, IL-1β, and IL-6; component 3: adiponectin and UA) explaining 76% of the variance. Higher salivary component 1 scores predicted higher odds of reporting poor SRH (OR 1.53, 95%CI [1.10, 2.11]). Higher serum component 2 scores predicted higher odds of reporting poor SRH (OR 2.37, 95%CI [1.20, 4.67]). When examined in the same model, salivary component 1 (OR 1.79, 95%CI [1.17, 2.75]) and serum component 2 were associated with poorer SRH (OR 7.74, 95%CI [2.18, 27.40]).

CONCLUSIONS

In our sample, whether measured in saliva or serum, indices of inflammatory processes were associated with SRH.

A novel DRL-guided sparse voxel decoding model for reconstructing perceived images from brain activity

BACKGROUND

Due to the sparse encoding character of the human visual cortex and the scarcity of paired training samples for {images, fMRIs}, voxel selection is an effective means of reconstructing perceived images from fMRI. However, the existing data-driven voxel selection methods have not achieved satisfactory results.

NEW METHOD

Here, a novel deep reinforcement learning-guided sparse voxel (DRL-SV) decoding model is proposed to reconstruct perceived images from fMRI. We innovatively describe voxel selection as a Markov decision process (MDP), training agents to select voxels that are highly involved in specific visual encoding.

RESULTS

Experimental results on two public datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed DRL-SV, which can accurately select voxels highly involved in neural encoding, thereby improving the quality of visual image reconstruction.

COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHODS

We qualitatively and quantitatively compared our results with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, getting better reconstruction results. We compared the proposed DRL-SV with traditional data-driven baseline methods, obtaining sparser voxel selection results, but better reconstruction performance.

CONCLUSIONS

DRL-SV can accurately select voxels involved in visual encoding on few-shot, compared to data-driven voxel selection methods. The proposed decoding model provides a new avenue to improving the image reconstruction quality of the primary visual cortex.

Rice yield prediction through integration of biophysical parameters with SAR and optical remote sensing data using machine learning models

In an era marked by growing global population and climate variability, ensuring food security has become a paramount concern. Rice, being a staple crop for billions of people, requires accurate and timely yield prediction to ensure global food security. This study was undertaken across two rice crop seasons in the Udham Singh Nagar district of Uttarakhand state to predict rice yield at 45, 60 and 90 days after transplanting (DAT) through machine learning (ML) models, utilizing a combination of optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data in conjunction with crop biophysical parameters. Results revealed that the ML models were able to provide relatively accurate early yield estimates. For summer rice, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB) was the best-performing model at all three stages (45, 60, and 90 DAT), while for kharif rice, the best-performing models at 45, 60, and 90 DAT were XGB, Neural network (NNET), and Cubist, respectively. The combined ranking of ML models showed that prediction accuracy improved as the prediction date approaches harvest, and the best prediction of yield was observed at 90 DAT for both summer and kharif rice. Overall rankings indicate that for summer rice, the top three models were XGB, NNET, and Support vector regression, while for kharif rice, these were Cubist, NNET, and Random Forest, respectively. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the potential of the combined use of remote sensing and biophysical parameters using ML models, which enhances food security planning and resource management by enabling more informed decision-making by stakeholders such as farmers, policy planners as well as researchers.

Magnetic resonance imaging-based radiomics model for preoperative assessment of risk stratification in endometrial cancer

BACKGROUND

Preoperative risk stratification is significant for the management of endometrial cancer (EC) patients. Radiomics based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in combination with clinical features may be useful to predict the risk grade of EC.

AIM

To construct machine learning models to predict preoperative risk stratification of patients with EC based on radiomics features extracted from MRI.

METHODS

The study comprised 112 EC patients. The participants were randomly separated into training and validation groups with a 7:3 ratio. Logistic regression analysis was applied to uncover independent clinical predictors. These predictors were then used to create a clinical nomogram. Extracted radiomics features from the T2-weighted imaging and diffusion weighted imaging sequences of MRI images, the Mann-Whitney U test, Pearson test, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis were employed to evaluate the relevant radiomic features, which were subsequently utilized to generate a radiomic signature. Seven machine learning strategies were used to construct radiomic models that relied on the screening features. The logistic regression method was used to construct a composite nomogram that incorporated both the radiomic signature and clinical independent risk indicators.

RESULTS

Having an accuracy of 0.82 along with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.915 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.806-0.986], the random forest method trained on radiomics characteristics performed better than expected. The predictive accuracy of radiomics prediction models surpassed that of both the clinical nomogram (AUC: 0.75, 95%CI: 0.611-0.899) and the combined nomogram (AUC: 0.869, 95%CI: 0.702-0.986) that integrated clinical parameters and radiomic signature.

CONCLUSION

The MRI-based radiomics model may be an effective tool for preoperative risk grade prediction in EC patients.

Machine learning-based evaluation of prognostic factors for mortality and relapse in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a comparative simulation study

BACKGROUND

Predicting mortality and relapse in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is crucial for effective treatment and follow-up management. ALL is a common and deadly childhood cancer that often relapses after remission. In this study, we aimed to apply and evaluate machine learning-based models for predicting mortality and relapse in pediatric ALL patients.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 161 children aged less than 16 years with ALL. Survival status (dead/alive) and patient experience of relapse (yes/no) were considered as the outcome variables. Ten machine learning (ML) algorithms were used to predict mortality and relapse. The performance of the algorithms was evaluated by cross-validation and reported as mean sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the curve (AUC). Finally, prognostic factors were identified based on the best algorithms.

RESULTS

The mean accuracy of the ML algorithms for prediction of patient mortality ranged from 64 to 74% and for prediction of relapse, it varied from 64 to 84% on test data sets. The mean AUC of the ML algorithms for mortality and relapse was above 64%. The most important prognostic factors for predicting both mortality and relapse were identified as age at diagnosis, hemoglobin and platelets. In addition, significant prognostic factors for predicting mortality included clinical side effects such as splenomegaly, hepatomegaly and lymphadenopathy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that artificial neural networks and bagging algorithms outperformed other algorithms in predicting mortality, while boosting and random forest algorithms excelled in predicting relapse in ALL patients across all criteria. These results offer significant clinical insights into the prognostic factors for children with ALL, which can inform treatment decisions and improve patient outcomes.

Machine learning applied to the prediction of relapse, hospitalization, and suicide in bipolar disorder using neuroimaging and clinical data: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Bipolar disorder (BD) is associated with increased morbidity/mortality. Adverse outcome prediction might help with the management of patients with BD.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the performance of machine learning (ML) studies in predicting adverse outcomes (relapse or recurrence, hospital admission, and suicide-related events) in patients with BD. Demographic, clinical, and neuroimaging-related poor outcome predictors were also reviewed. Three databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) were explored from inception to July 2023.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies, accounting for >30,000 patients, were included. Support vector machine, decision trees, random forest, and logistic regression were the most frequently used ML algorithms. ML models' area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity ranged from 0.71 to 0.98, 72.7-92.8 %, and 59.0-95.2 % for relapse/recurrence prediction (4 studies (3 on relapses and 1 on recurrences). The corresponding values were 0.78-0.88, 21.4-100 %, and 77.0-99.7 % for hospital admissions (3 studies, 21,266 patients), and 0.71-0.99, 44.4-97.9 %, and 38.9-95.0 % for suicide-related events (10 studies, 5558 patients). Also, one study addressed a combination of the interest outcomes. Adverse outcome predictors included early onset BD, BD type I, comorbid psychiatric or substance use disorder, circadian rhythm disruption, hospitalization characteristics, and neuroimaging parameters, including increased dynamic amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation, decreased frontolimbic functional connectivity and aberrant dynamic functional connectivity in corticostriatal circuitry.

CONCLUSIONS

ML models can predict adverse outcomes of BD with relatively acceptable performance measures. Future studies with larger samples and nested cross-validation validation should be conducted to reach more reliable results.

Predicting all-cause mortality and premature death using interpretable machine learning among a middle-aged and elderly Chinese population

Objective

To develop machine learning-based prediction models for all-cause and premature mortality among the middle-aged and elderly population in China.

Method

Adults aged 45 years or older at baseline of 2011 from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were included. The stacked ensemble model was built utilizing five selected machine learning algorithms. These models underwent training and testing using the CHARLS 2011-2015 cohort (derivation cohort) and subsequently underwent external validation using the CHARLS 2015-2018 cohort (validation cohort). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was introduced to quantify the importance of risk factors and explain machine learning algorithms.

Result

In derivation cohort, a total of 10,677 subjects were included, 478 died during the follow-up. The stacked ensemble model demonstrated the highest efficacy in terms of its discrimination capability for predicting all-cause mortality and premature death, with an AUC[95 % CI] of 0.826[0.792-0.859] and 0.773[0.725-0.821], respectively. In validation cohort, the corresponding AUC[95 % CI] were 0.803[0.743-0.864] and 0.791[0.719-0.863], respectively. Risk factors including age, sex, self-reported health, activities of daily living, cognitive function, ever smoker, levels of systolic blood pressure, Cystatin C and low density lipoprotein were strong predictors for both all-cause mortality and premature death.

Conclusion

Stacked ensemble models performed well in predicting all-cause and premature death in this Chinese cohort. Interpretable techniques can aid in identifying significant risk factors and non-linear relationships between predictors and mortality.

Assimilation of 3D printing, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) for the construction of eco-friendly intelligent homes: An explorative review

The construction industry is witnessing a transformative shift towards sustainable and intelligent housing solutions driven by advancements in 3D printing, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT). Several architectural and construction firms have adopted innovative technologies to make construction easier, sustainable, efficient, cheap, fast, low generation of waste etc. This explorative review critically examines the integration of these technologies in the construction of eco-friendly intelligent homes. Drawing on a comprehensive analysis of literature spanning from 2010 to 2024, the review explores the synergistic potential and challenges associated with amalgamating 3D printing, AI, and IoT in construction processes. The increase need of smart homes equipped with sensors that can sense and regulate temperature, prevent or control fire, sense gas leakage, motion detectors and alarms for security and other application is in high demand. These types of smart homes can only be achieved by integrating different technologies together which include 3D printing (3DP), AI and Internet of Things (IoT). Despite the growing research in the field of automated construction, there are few articles that attempt to integrate these technologies together for futuristic smart homes and potential of smart cities. This study is aim at providing up-to-date advancement in technological innovation within the construction sector with regards to applications of 3DP, IoT, and AI. Key findings highlight how 3D printing enables rapid prototyping and customization of building components, AI enhances energy efficiency and occupant comfort through predictive analytics and automation, while IoT facilitates real-time monitoring and control of building systems. Furthermore, the review discusses the environmental benefits, cost-effectiveness, and societal implications of adopting such integrated approaches. However, challenges such as regulatory barriers, technological limitations, and the need for skilled labor are identified as critical barriers to widespread implementation. Future research directions are proposed to address these challenges and further optimize the integration of 3D printing, AI, and IoT for the construction of sustainable intelligent homes. In this review article, the need for 3DP in construction, advantage and disadvantage of 3DP, (AI) and IoT and the application of these technologies in addressing challenges regarding 3DP and promoting sustainability in the construction industries were comprehensively explored.

On degree-based operators and topological descriptors of molecular graphs and their applications to QSPR analysis of carbon derivatives

This work initiates a concept of reduced reverse degree basedRR D M -Polynomial for a graph, and differential and integral operators by using thisRR D M -Polynomial. In this study twelve reduced reverse degree-based topological descriptors are formulated using theRR D M -Polynomial. The topological descriptors, denoted as T D 's, are numerical invariants that offer significant insights into the molecular topology of a molecular graph. These descriptors are essential for conducting QSPR investigations and accurately estimating physicochemical attributes. The structural and algebraic characteristics of the graphene and graphdiyne are studied to apply this methodology. The study involves the analysis and estimation of Reduced reverse degree-based topological descriptors and physicochemical features of graphene derivatives using best-fit quadratic regression models. This work opens up new directions for scientists and researchers to pursue, taking them into new fields of study.

Cheminformatic Identification of Tyrosyl-DNA Phosphodiesterase 1 (Tdp1) Inhibitors: A Comparative Study of SMILES-Based Supervised Machine Learning Models

BACKGROUND

Tyrosyl-DNA phosphodiesterase 1 (Tdp1) repairs damages in DNA induced by abortive topoisomerase 1 activity; however, maintenance of genetic integrity may sustain cellular division of neoplastic cells. It follows that Tdp1-targeting chemical inhibitors could synergize well with existing chemotherapy drugs to deny cancer growth; therefore, identification of Tdp1 inhibitors may advance precision medicine in oncology.

OBJECTIVE

Current computational research efforts focus primarily on molecular docking simulations, though datasets involving three-dimensional molecular structures are often hard to curate and computationally expensive to store and process. We propose the use of simplified molecular input line entry system (SMILES) chemical representations to train supervised machine learning (ML) models, aiming to predict potential Tdp1 inhibitors.

METHODS

An open-sourced consensus dataset containing the inhibitory activity of numerous chemicals against Tdp1 was obtained from Kaggle. Various ML algorithms were trained, ranging from simple algorithms to ensemble methods and deep neural networks. For algorithms requiring numerical data, SMILES were converted to chemical descriptors using RDKit, an open-sourced Python cheminformatics library.

RESULTS

Out of 13 optimized ML models with rigorously tuned hyperparameters, the random forest model gave the best results, yielding a receiver operating characteristics-area under curve of 0.7421, testing accuracy of 0.6815, sensitivity of 0.6444, specificity of 0.7156, precision of 0.6753, and F1 score of 0.6595.

CONCLUSIONS

Ensemble methods, especially the bootstrap aggregation mechanism adopted by random forest, outperformed other ML algorithms in classifying Tdp1 inhibitors from non-inhibitors using SMILES. The discovery of Tdp1 inhibitors could unlock more treatment regimens for cancer patients, allowing for therapies tailored to the patient's condition.

AnyFace++: Deep Multi-Task, Multi-Domain Learning for Efficient Face AI

Accurate face detection and subsequent localization of facial landmarks are mandatory steps in many computer vision applications, such as emotion recognition, age estimation, and gender identification. Thanks to advancements in deep learning, numerous facial applications have been developed for human faces. However, most have to employ multiple models to accomplish several tasks simultaneously. As a result, they require more memory usage and increased inference time. Also, less attention is paid to other domains, such as animals and cartoon characters. To address these challenges, we propose an input-agnostic face model, AnyFace++, to perform multiple face-related tasks concurrently. The tasks are face detection and prediction of facial landmarks for human, animal, and cartoon faces, including age estimation, gender classification, and emotion recognition for human faces. We trained the model using deep multi-task, multi-domain learning with a heterogeneous cost function. The experimental results demonstrate that AnyFace++ generates outcomes comparable to cutting-edge models designed for specific domains.

Variational Bayes machine learning for risk adjustment of general outcome indicators with examples in urology

Risk adjustment is often necessary for outcome quality indicators (QIs) to provide fair and accurate feedback to healthcare professionals. However, traditional risk adjustment models are generally oversimplified and not equipped to disentangle complex factors influencing outcomes that are out of a healthcare professional's control. We present VIRGO, a novel variational Bayes model trained on routinely collected, large administrative datasets to risk-adjust outcome QIs. VIRGO uses detailed demographics, diagnosis, and procedure codes to provide individualized risk adjustment and explanations on patient factors affecting outcomes. VIRGO achieves state-of-the-art on external datasets and features capabilities of uncertainty expression, explainable features, and counterfactual analysis capabilities. VIRGO facilitates risk adjustment by explaining how patient factors led to adverse outcomes and expresses the uncertainty of each prediction, allowing healthcare professionals to not only explore patient factors with unexplained variance that are associated with worse outcomes but also reflect on the quality of their clinical practice.

Navigating pathways to automated personality prediction: a comparative study of small and medium language models

Introduction

Recent advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) and widely available social media data have made it possible to predict human personalities in various computational applications. In this context, pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained recognition for their exceptional performance in NLP benchmarks. However, these models require substantial computational resources, escalating their carbon and water footprint. Consequently, a shift toward more computationally efficient smaller models is observed.

Methods

This study compares a small model ALBERT (11.8M parameters) with a larger model, RoBERTa (125M parameters) in predicting big five personality traits. It utilizes the PANDORA dataset comprising Reddit comments, processing them on a Tesla P100-PCIE-16GB GPU. The study customized both models to support multi-output regression and added two linear layers for fine-grained regression analysis.

Results

Results are evaluated on Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), considering the computational resources consumed during training. While ALBERT consumed lower levels of system memory with lower heat emission, it took higher computation time compared to RoBERTa. The study produced comparable levels of MSE, RMSE, and training loss reduction.

Discussion

This highlights the influence of training data quality on the model's performance, outweighing the significance of model size. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.

Peptides as modulators of FPPS enzyme: A multifaceted evaluation from the design to the mechanism of action

Bone diseases are medical conditions caused by the loss of bone homeostasis consecutive to increased osteoclast activity and diminished osteoblast activity. The mevalonate pathway (MVA) is crucial for maintaining this balance since it drives the post-translational prenylation of small guanosine triphosphatases (GTPases) proteins. Farnesyl pyrophosphate synthase (FPPS) plays a crucial role in the MVA pathway. Consequently, in the treatment of bone-related diseases, FPPS is the target of FDA-approved nitrogen-containing bisphosphonates (N-BPs), which have tropism mainly for bone tissue due to their poor penetration in soft tissues. The development of inhibitors targeting the FPPS enzyme has garnered significant interest in recent decades due to FPPS's role in the biosynthesis of cholesterol and other isoprenoids, which are implicated in cancer, bone diseases, and other conditions. In this study, we describe a multidisciplinary approach to designing novel FPPS inhibitors, combining computational modeling, biochemical assays, and biophysical techniques. A series of peptides and phosphopeptides were designed, synthesized, and evaluated for their ability to inhibit FPPS activity. Molecular docking was employed to predict the binding modes of these compounds to FPPS, while Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy experiments - based on Saturation Transfer Difference (STD) and an enzymatic NMR assay - were used to measure their binding affinities and kinetics. The biological activity of the most promising compounds was further assessed in cellular assays using murine colorectal cancer (CRC) cells. Additionally, genomics and metabolomics profiling allowed to unravel the possible mechanisms underlying the activity of the peptides, confirming their involvement in the modulation of the MVA pathway. Our findings demonstrate that the designed peptides and phosphopeptides exhibit significant inhibitory activity against FPPS and possess antiproliferative effects on CRC cells, suggesting their potential as therapeutic agents for cancer.

Brain activities in the auditory area and insula represent stimuli evoking emotional response

Cinema, a modern titan of entertainment, holds power to move people with the artful manipulation of auditory and visual stimuli. Despite this, the mechanisms behind how sensory stimuli elicit emotional responses are unknown. Thus, this study evaluated which brain regions were involved when sensory stimuli evoke auditory- or visual-driven emotions during film viewing. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) decoding techniques, we found that brain activities in the auditory area and insula represent the stimuli that evoke emotional response. The observation of brain activities in these regions could provide further insights to these mechanisms for the improvement of film-making, as well as the development of novel neural techniques in neuroscience. In near feature, such a "neuro-designed" products/ applications might gain in popularity.

Development, evaluation and comparison of machine learning algorithms for predicting in-hospital patient charges for congestive heart failure exacerbations, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations and diabetic ketoacidosis

BACKGROUND

Hospitalizations for exacerbations of congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) are costly in the United States. The purpose of this study was to predict in-hospital charges for each condition using machine learning (ML) models.

RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on national discharge records of hospitalized adult patients from January 1st, 2016, to December 31st, 2019. We constructed six ML models (linear regression, ridge regression, support vector machine, random forest, gradient boosting and extreme gradient boosting) to predict total in-hospital cost for admission for each condition. Our models had good predictive performance, with testing R-squared values of 0.701-0.750 (mean of 0.713) for CHF; 0.694-0.724 (mean 0.709) for COPD; and 0.615-0.729 (mean 0.694) for DKA. We identified important key features driving costs, including patient age, length of stay, number of procedures, and elective/nonelective admission.

CONCLUSIONS

ML methods may be used to accurately predict costs and identify drivers of high cost for COPD exacerbations, CHF exacerbations and DKA. Overall, our findings may inform future studies that seek to decrease the underlying high patient costs for these conditions.

Transcriptome-Wide Root Causal Inference

Root causal genes correspond to the first gene expression levels perturbed during pathogenesis by genetic or non-genetic factors. Targeting root causal genes has the potential to alleviate disease entirely by eliminating pathology near its onset. No existing algorithm discovers root causal genes from observational data alone. We therefore propose the Transcriptome-Wide Root Causal Inference (TWRCI) algorithm that identifies root causal genes and their causal graph using a combination of genetic variant and unperturbed bulk RNA sequencing data. TWRCI uses a novel competitive regression procedure to annotate cis and trans-genetic variants to the gene expression levels they directly cause. The algorithm simultaneously recovers a causal ordering of the expression levels to pinpoint the underlying causal graph and estimate root causal effects. TWRCI outperforms alternative approaches across a diverse group of metrics by directly targeting root causal genes while accounting for distal relations, linkage disequilibrium, patient heterogeneity and widespread pleiotropy. We demonstrate the algorithm by uncovering the root causal mechanisms of two complex diseases, which we confirm by replication using independent genome-wide summary statistics.

Integrating federated learning for improved counterfactual explanations in clinical decision support systems for sepsis therapy

In recent years, we have witnessed both artificial intelligence obtaining remarkable results in clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) improving the interpretability of these models. In turn, this fosters the adoption by medical personnel and improves trustworthiness of CDSSs. Among others, counterfactual explanations prove to be one such XAI technique particularly suitable for the healthcare domain due to its ease of interpretation, even for less technically proficient staff. However, the generation of high-quality counterfactuals relies on generative models for guidance. Unfortunately, training such models requires a huge amount of data that is beyond the means of ordinary hospitals. In this paper, we therefore propose to use federated learning to allow multiple hospitals to jointly train such generative models while maintaining full data privacy. We demonstrate the superiority of our approach compared to locally generated counterfactuals. Moreover, we prove that generative models for counterfactual generation that are trained using federated learning in a suitable environment perform only marginally worse compared to centrally trained ones while offering the benefit of data privacy preservation. Finally, we integrate our method into a prototypical CDSS for treatment recommendation for sepsis patients, thus providing a proof of concept for real-world application as well as insights and sanity checks from clinical application.

Prediction and Interpretability Study of the Glass Transition Temperature of Polyimide Based on Machine Learning with Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (Tg-QSPR)

The glass transition temperature (Tg) is a crucial characteristic of polyimides (PIs). Developing a Tg predictive model using machine learning methodologies can facilitate the design of PI structures and expedite the development process. In this investigation, a data set comprising 1257 PIs was assembled, with Tg values determined using differential scanning calorimetry. 210 molecular descriptors were computed using RDKit, and subsequently, six distinct feature selection methodologies were employed to refine the descriptor set. Quantitative structure-property relationship models targeting Tg (Tg-QSPR) were then constructed using five ensemble learning algorithms and one deep learning algorithm. These models exhibited high predictive accuracy and robustness, with the CATBoost model demonstrating the highest accuracy, achieving a coefficient of determination of 0.823 for the test set, a mean absolute error of 20.1 °C, and a root-mean-square error of 29.0 °C. The study identified the NumRotatableBonds descriptor as particularly influential on Tg, showing a negative correlation with the property. Additionally, the model's accuracy was validated using ten new PI films not included in the original data set, resulting in absolute errors ranging from 2.5 to 26.9 °C and absolute percentage error rates of 1.0-12.8%. These findings underscore the importance of utilizing extensive and diverse data sets for predictive modeling to enhance accuracy and stability. Furthermore, exploring the interpretability of the model and experimentally validating newly synthesized PIs have augmented the practical utility of the model. Under the guidance of the Tg-QSPR models, it will be possible to accelerate the performance prediction and structural design of PIs in the future.

Assigning goal-probability value to high intensity runs in football

High intensity run counts-defined as the number of runs where a player reaches and maintains a speed above a certain threshold-are a popular football running statistic in sport science research. While the high intensity run number gives an insight into the volume or intensity of a player's work rate it does not give any indication about the effectiveness of their runs or whether or not they provided value to the team. To provide the missing context of value this research borrows the concept of value models from sports analytics which assign continuous values to each frame of optical tracking data. In this research the value model takes the form of goal-probability for the in-possession team. By aligning the value model with high intensity runs this research identifies positive correlations between speed and acceleration with high value runs, as well as a negative correlation between tortuosity (a measure of path curvature) and high value runs. There is also a correlation between the number of players making high intensity runs concurrently and the value generated by the team, suggesting a form of movement coordination. Finally positional differences are explored demonstrating that attacking players make more in-possession high intensity runs when goal probability is high, whereas defensive players make more out-of-possession high intensity runs while goal probability is high. By assigning value to high-intensity runs practitioners are able to add new layers of context to traditional sport science metrics and answer more nuanced questions.

Evolutionary Mechanism Based Conserved Gene Expression Biclustering Module Analysis for Breast Cancer Genomics

The identification of significant gene biclusters with particular expression patterns and the elucidation of functionally related genes within gene expression data has become a critical concern due to the vast amount of gene expression data generated by RNA sequencing technology. In this paper, a Conserved Gene Expression Module based on Genetic Algorithm (CGEMGA) is proposed. Breast cancer data from the TCGA database is used as the subject of this study. The p-values from Fisher's exact test are used as evaluation metrics to demonstrate the significance of different algorithms, including the Cheng and Church algorithm, CGEM algorithm, etc. In addition, the F-test is used to investigate the difference between our method and the CGEM algorithm. The computational cost of the different algorithms is further investigated by calculating the running time of each algorithm. Finally, the established driver genes and cancer-related pathways are used to validate the process. The results of 10 independent runs demonstrate that CGEMGA has a superior average p-value of 1.54 × 10-4 ± 3.06 × 10-5 compared to all other algorithms. Furthermore, our approach exhibits consistent performance across all methods. The F-test yields a p-value of 0.039, indicating a significant difference between our approach and the CGEM. Computational cost statistics also demonstrate that our approach has a significantly shorter average runtime of 5.22 × 100 ± 1.65 × 10-1 s compared to the other algorithms. Enrichment analysis indicates that the genes in our approach are significantly enriched for driver genes. Our algorithm is fast and robust, efficiently extracting co-expressed genes and associated co-expression condition biclusters from RNA-seq data.

Machine learning-based classification of Parkinson's disease using acoustic features: Insights from multilingual speech tasks

This study advances the automation of Parkinson's disease (PD) diagnosis by analyzing speech characteristics, leveraging a comprehensive approach that integrates a voting-based machine learning model. Given the growing prevalence of PD, especially among the elderly population, continuous and efficient diagnosis is of paramount importance. Conventional monitoring methods suffer from limitations related to time, cost, and accessibility, underscoring the need for the development of automated diagnostic tools. In this paper, we present a robust model for classifying speech patterns in Korean PD patients, addressing a significant research gap. Our model employs straightforward preprocessing techniques and a voting-based machine learning approach, demonstrating superior performance, particularly when training data is limited. Furthermore, we emphasize the effectiveness of the eGeMAPSv2 feature set in PD analysis and introduce new features that substantially enhance classification accuracy. The proposed model, achieving an accuracy of 84.73 % and an area under the ROC (AUC) score of 92.18 % on a dataset comprising 100 Korean PD patients and 100 healthy controls, offers a practical solution for automated diagnosis applications, such as smartphone apps. Future research endeavors will concentrate on enhancing the model's performance and delving deeper into the relationship between high-importance features and PD.

Balanced Destruction-Reconstruction Dynamics for Memory-Replay Class Incremental Learning

Class incremental learning (CIL) aims to incrementally update a trained model with the new classes of samples (plasticity) while retaining previously learned ability (stability). To address the most challenging issue in this goal, i.e., catastrophic forgetting, the mainstream paradigm is memory-replay CIL, which consolidates old knowledge by replaying a small number of old classes of samples saved in the memory. Despite effectiveness, the inherent destruction-reconstruction dynamics in memory-replay CIL are an intrinsic limitation: if the old knowledge is severely destructed, it will be quite hard to reconstruct the lossless counterpart. Our theoretical analysis shows that the destruction of old knowledge can be effectively alleviated by balancing the contribution of samples from the current phase and those saved in the memory. Motivated by this theoretical finding, we propose a novel Balanced Destruction-Reconstruction module (BDR) for memory-replay CIL, which can achieve better knowledge reconstruction by reducing the degree of maximal destruction of old knowledge. Specifically, to achieve a better balance between old knowledge and new classes, the proposed BDR module takes into account two factors: the variance in training status across different classes and the quantity imbalance of samples from the current phase and memory. By dynamically manipulating the gradient during training based on these factors, BDR can effectively alleviate knowledge destruction and improve knowledge reconstruction. Extensive experiments on a range of CIL benchmarks have shown that as a lightweight plug-and-play module, BDR can significantly improve the performance of existing state-of-the-art methods with good generalization. Our code is publicly available here.

Assessing physical fitness adaptations in collegiate male soccer players through training load parameters: a two-arm randomized study on combined small-sided games and running-based high-intensity interval training

Objective

To evaluate the effects of a 4-week intervention combining small-sided games (SSGs) and high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on physical fitness in collegiate male soccer players.

Methods

Twenty-one soccer players were randomly assigned to either the HIIT + SSGs group (n = 11) or a control group (n = 10). Physical fitness was assessed at baseline and 1-week post-intervention, including countermovement jump (CMJ), change of direction (COD) test, sprint test, repeated sprint ability (RSA) test, and 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test (30-15IFT). The intervention comprised eight sessions over 4 weeks: four SSGs and four HIIT.

Results

The intervention group showed small to moderate improvements: mean RSA improved by 4.5% (p = 0.07), CMJ increased by 3.2% (p = 0.12), and 30-15IFT scores enhanced by 6.8% (p = 0.09). Key predictors of group membership included heart rate load per minute (OR 1.602) and various GPS variables.

Conclusion

The 4-week intervention combining SSGs with HIIT did not produce statistically significant improvements in most physical fitness variables compared to the control group. Although there were positive trends in variables such as RSA and 30-15IFT, these changes were modest and not statistically significant. The results suggest that while the combined SSGs and HIIT approach shows potential, its impact on physical fitness over a 4-week period is limited, with some variables, like CMJ, even showing decreases.

SpeechBrain-MOABB: An open-source Python library for benchmarking deep neural networks applied to EEG signals

Deep learning has revolutionized EEG decoding, showcasing its ability to outperform traditional machine learning models. However, unlike other fields, EEG decoding lacks comprehensive open-source libraries dedicated to neural networks. Existing tools (MOABB and braindecode) prevent the creation of robust and complete decoding pipelines, as they lack support for hyperparameter search across the entire pipeline, and are sensitive to fluctuations in results due to network random initialization. Furthermore, the absence of a standardized experimental protocol exacerbates the reproducibility crisis in the field. To address these limitations, we introduce SpeechBrain-MOABB, a novel open-source toolkit carefully designed to facilitate the development of a comprehensive EEG decoding pipeline based on deep learning. SpeechBrain-MOABB incorporates a complete experimental protocol that standardizes critical phases, such as hyperparameter search and model evaluation. It natively supports multi-step hyperparameter search for finding the optimal hyperparameters in a high-dimensional space defined by the entire pipeline, and multi-seed training and evaluation for obtaining performance estimates robust to the variability caused by random initialization. SpeechBrain-MOABB outperforms other libraries, including MOABB and braindecode, with accuracy improvements of 14.9% and 25.2% (on average), respectively. By enabling easy-to-use and easy-to-share decoding pipelines, our toolkit can be exploited by neuroscientists for decoding EEG with neural networks in a replicable and trustworthy way.

Holistic understanding of trimethoprim resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae using an integrative approach of genome-wide association study, resistance reconstruction, and machine learning

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a public health threat worldwide. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has opened unprecedented opportunities to accelerate AMR mechanism discovery and diagnostics. Here, we present an integrative approach to investigate trimethoprim (TMP) resistance in the key pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae. We explored a collection of 662 S. pneumoniae genomes by conducting a genome-wide association study (GWAS), followed by functional validation using resistance reconstruction experiments, combined with machine learning (ML) approaches to predict TMP minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). Our study showed that multiple additive mutations in the folA and sulA loci are responsible for TMP non-susceptibility in S. pneumoniae and can be used as key features to build ML models for digital MIC prediction, reaching an average accuracy within ±1 twofold dilution factor of 86.3%. Our roadmap of in silico analysis-wet-lab validation-diagnostic tool building could be adapted to explore AMR in other combinations of bacteria-antibiotic.

IMPORTANCE

In the age of next-generation sequencing (NGS), while data-driven methods such as genome-wide association study (GWAS) and machine learning (ML) excel at finding patterns, functional validation can be challenging due to the high numbers of candidate variants. We designed an integrative approach combining a GWAS on S. pneumoniae clinical isolates, followed by whole-genome transformation coupled with NGS to functionally characterize a large set of GWAS candidates. Our study validated several phenotypic folA mutations beyond the standard Ile100Leu mutation, and showed that the overexpression of the sulA locus produces trimethoprim (TMP) resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae. These validated loci, when used to build ML models, were found to be the best inputs for predicting TMP minimal inhibitory concentrations. Integrative approaches can bridge the genotype-phenotype gap by biological insights that can be incorporated in ML models for accurate prediction of drug susceptibility.

Cognitive activity analysis of Parkinson's patients using artificial intelligence techniques

PURPOSE

The development of modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) based models for the early diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) has been gaining deep attention by researchers recently. In particular, the use of different types of datasets (voice, hand movements, gait, etc.) increases the variety of up-to-date models. Movement disorders and tremors are also among the most prominent symptoms of PD. The usage of drawings in the detection of PD can be a crucial decision-support approach that doctors can benefit from.

METHODS

A dataset was created by asking 40 PD and 40 Healthy Controls (HC) to draw spirals with and without templates using a special tablet. The patient-healthy distinction was achieved by classifying drawings of individuals using Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Naive Bayes (NB) algorithms. Prior to classification, the data were normalized by applying the min-max normalization method. Moreover, Leave-One-Subject-Out (LOSO) Cross-Validation (CV) approach was utilized to eliminate possible overfitting scenarios. To further improve the performances of classifiers, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) dimension reduction technique were also applied to the raw data and the results were compared accordingly.

RESULTS

The highest accuracy among machine learning based classifiers was obtained as 90% with SVM classifier using non-template drawings with PCA application.

CONCLUSION

The model can be used as a pre-evaluation system in the clinic as a non-invasive method that also minimizes environmental and educational level differences by using simple hand gestures such as hand drawing, writing numbers, words, and syllables. As a result of our study, preliminary preparation has been made so that hand drawing analysis can be used as an auxiliary system that can save time for health professionals. We plan to work on more comprehensive data in the future.

The changing scenario of drug discovery using AI to deep learning: Recent advancement, success stories, collaborations, and challenges

Due to the transformation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools and technologies, AI-driven drug discovery has come to the forefront. It reduces the time and expenditure. Due to these advantages, pharmaceutical industries are concentrating on AI-driven drug discovery. Several drug molecules have been discovered using AI-based techniques and tools, and several newly AI-discovered drug molecules have already entered clinical trials. In this review, we first present the data and their resources in the pharmaceutical sector for AI-driven drug discovery and illustrated some significant algorithms or techniques used for AI and ML which are used in this field. We gave an overview of the deep neural network (NN) models and compared them with artificial NNs. Then, we illustrate the recent advancement of the landscape of drug discovery using AI to deep learning, such as the identification of drug targets, prediction of their structure, estimation of drug-target interaction, estimation of drug-target binding affinity, design of de novo drug, prediction of drug toxicity, estimation of absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, toxicity; and estimation of drug-drug interaction. Moreover, we highlighted the success stories of AI-driven drug discovery and discussed several collaboration and the challenges in this area. The discussions in the article will enrich the pharmaceutical industry.

Application of artificial intelligence tools in wastewater and waste gas treatment systems: Recent advances and prospects

The non-linear complex relationships among the process variables in wastewater and waste gas treatment systems possess a significant challenge for real-time systems modelling. Data driven artificial intelligence (AI) tools are increasingly being adopted to predict the process performance, cost-effective process monitoring, and the control of different waste treatment systems, including those involving resource recovery. This review presents an in-depth analysis of the applications of emerging AI tools in physico-chemical and biological processes for the treatment of air pollutants, water and wastewater, and resource recovery processes. Additionally, the successful implementation of AI-controlled wastewater and waste gas treatment systems, along with real-time monitoring at the industrial scale are discussed.

A Futuristic Development in 3D Printing Technique Using Nanomaterials with a Step Toward 4D Printing

3D bioprinting has shown great promise in tissue engineering and regenerative medicine for creating patient-specific tissue scaffolds and medicinal devices. The quickness, accurate imaging, and design targeting of this emerging technology have excited biomedical engineers and translational medicine researchers. Recently, scaffolds made from 3D bioprinted tissue have become more clinically effective due to nanomaterials and nanotechnology. Because of quantum confinement effects and high surface area/volume ratios, nanomaterials and nanotechnological techniques have unique physical, chemical, and biological features. The use of nanomaterials and 3D bioprinting has led to scaffolds with improved physicochemical and biological properties. Nanotechnology and nanomaterials affect 3D bioprinted tissue engineered scaffolds for regenerative medicine and tissue engineering. Biomaterials and cells that respond to stimuli change the structural shape in 4D bioprinting. With such dynamic designs, tissue architecture can change morphologically. New 4D bioprinting techniques will aid in bioactuation, biorobotics, and biosensing. The potential of 4D bioprinting in biomedical technologies is also discussed in this article.

Modeling the Arrows of Time with Causal Multibaker Maps

Why do we remember the past, and plan the future? We introduce a toy model in which to investigate emergent time asymmetries: the causal multibaker maps. These are reversible discrete-time dynamical systems with configurable causal interactions. Imposing a suitable initial condition or "Past Hypothesis", and then coarse-graining, yields a Pearlean locally causal structure. While it is more common to speculate that the other arrows of time arise from the thermodynamic arrow, our model instead takes the causal arrow as fundamental. From it, we obtain the thermodynamic and epistemic arrows of time. The epistemic arrow concerns records, which we define to be systems that encode the state of another system at another time, regardless of the latter system's dynamics. Such records exist of the past, but not of the future. We close with informal discussions of the evolutionary and agential arrows of time, and their relevance to decision theory.

Digital speech hearing screening using a quick novel mobile hearing impairment assessment: an observational correlation study

By 2050, 1 in 4 people worldwide will be living with hearing impairment. We propose a digital Speech Hearing Screener (dSHS) using short nonsense word recognition to measure speech-hearing ability. The importance of hearing screening is increasing due to the anticipated increase in individuals with hearing impairment globally. We compare dSHS outcomes with standardized pure-tone averages (PTA) and speech-recognition thresholds (SRT). Fifty participants (aged 55 or older underwent pure-tone and speech-recognition thresholding. One-way ANOVA was used to compare differences between hearing impaired and hearing not-impaired groups, by the dSHS, with a clinical threshold of moderately impaired hearing at 35 dB and severe hearing impairment at 50 dB. dSHS results significantly correlated with PTAs/SRTs. ANOVA results revealed the dSHS was significantly different (F(1,47) = 38.1, p < 0.001) between hearing impaired and unimpaired groups. Classification analysis using a 35 dB threshold, yielded accuracy of 85.7% for PTA-based impairment and 81.6% for SRT-based impairment. At a 50 dB threshold, dSHS classification accuracy was 79.6% for PTA-based impairment (Negative Predictive Value (NPV)-93%) and 83.7% (NPV-100%) for SRT-based impairment. The dSHS successfully differentiates between hearing-impaired and unimpaired individuals in under 3 min. This hearing screener offers a time-saving, in-clinic hearing screening to streamline the triage of those with likely hearing impairment to the appropriate follow-up assessment, thereby improving the quality of services. Future work will investigate the ability of the dSHS to help rule out hearing impairment as a cause or confounder in clinical and research applications.

A computational account of the development and evolution of psychotic symptoms

The mechanisms of psychotic symptoms like hallucinations and delusions are often investigated in fully-formed illness, well after symptoms emerge. These investigations have yielded key insights, but are not well-positioned to reveal the dynamic forces underlying symptom formation itself. Understanding symptom development over time would allow us to identify steps in the pathophysiological process leading to psychosis, shifting the focus of psychiatric intervention from symptom alleviation to prevention. We propose a model for understanding the emergence of psychotic symptoms within the context of an adaptive, developing neural system. We will make the case for a pathophysiological process that begins with cortical hyperexcitability and bottom-up noise transmission, which engenders inappropriate belief formation via aberrant prediction error signaling. We will argue that this bottom-up noise drives learning about the (im)precision of new incoming sensory information because of diminished signal-to-noise ratio, causing a compensatory relative over-reliance on prior beliefs. This over-reliance on priors predisposes to hallucinations and covaries with hallucination severity. An over-reliance on priors may also lead to increased conviction in the beliefs generated by bottom-up noise and drive movement toward conversion to psychosis. We will identify predictions of our model at each stage, examine evidence to support or refute those predictions, and propose experiments that could falsify or help select between alternative elements of the overall model. Nesting computational abnormalities within longitudinal development allows us to account for hidden dynamics among the mechanisms driving symptom formation and to view established symptomatology as a point of equilibrium among competing biological forces.

Random forest analysis and lasso regression outperform traditional methods in identifying missing data auxiliary variables when the MAR mechanism is nonlinear (p.s. Stop using Little's MCAR test)

The selection of auxiliary variables is an important first step in appropriately implementing missing data methods such as full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimation or multiple imputation. However, practical guidelines and statistical tests for selecting useful auxiliary variables are somewhat lacking, leading to potentially biased estimates. We propose the use of random forest analysis and lasso regression as alternative methods to select auxiliary variables, particularly in situations in which the missing data pattern is nonlinear or otherwise complex (i.e., interactive relationships between variables and missingness). Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of random forest analysis and lasso regression compared to traditional methods (t-tests, Little's MCAR test, logistic regressions), in terms of both selecting auxiliary variables and the performance of said auxiliary variables when incorporated in an analysis with missing data. Both techniques outperformed traditional methods, providing a promising direction for improvement of practical methods for handling missing data in statistical analyses.

On formal limitations of causal ecological networks

Causal multivariate time-series analysis, combined with network theory, provide a powerful tool for studying complex ecological interactions. However, these methods have limitations often underestimated when used in graphical modelling of ecological systems. In this opinion article, I examine the relationship between formal logic methods used to describe causal networks and their inherent statistical and epistemological limitations. I argue that while these methods offer valuable insights, they are restricted by axiomatic assumptions, statistical constraints and the incompleteness of our knowledge. To prove that, I first consider causal networks as formal systems, define causality and formalize their axioms in terms of modal logic and use ecological counterexamples to question the axioms. I also highlight the statistical limitations when using multivariate time-series analysis and Granger causality to develop ecological networks, including the potential for spurious correlations among other data characteristics. Finally, I draw upon Gödel's incompleteness theorems to highlight the inherent limits of fully understanding complex networks as formal systems and conclude that causal ecological networks are subject to initial rules and data characteristics and, as any formal system, will never fully capture the intricate complexities of the systems they represent. This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Machine learning-based prognostic model for 30-day mortality prediction in Sepsis-3

BACKGROUND

Sepsis poses a critical threat to hospitalized patients, particularly those in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Rapid identification of Sepsis is crucial for improving survival rates. Machine learning techniques offer advantages over traditional methods for predicting outcomes. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model using a Stacking-based Meta-Classifier to predict 30-day mortality risks in Sepsis-3 patients from the MIMIC-III database.

METHODS

A cohort of 4,240 Sepsis-3 patients was analyzed, with 783 experiencing 30-day mortality and 3,457 surviving. Fifteen biomarkers were selected using feature ranking methods, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, and Extra Tree, and the Logistic Regression (LR) model was used to assess their individual predictability with a fivefold cross-validation approach for the validation of the prediction. The dataset was balanced using the SMOTE-TOMEK LINK technique, and a stacking-based meta-classifier was used for 30-day mortality prediction. The SHapley Additive explanations analysis was performed to explain the model's prediction.

RESULTS

Using the LR classifier, the model achieved an area under the curve or AUC score of 0.99. A nomogram provided clinical insights into the biomarkers' significance. The stacked meta-learner, LR classifier exhibited the best performance with 95.52% accuracy, 95.79% precision, 95.52% recall, 93.65% specificity, and a 95.60% F1-score.

CONCLUSIONS

In conjunction with the nomogram, the proposed stacking classifier model effectively predicted 30-day mortality in Sepsis patients. This approach holds promise for early intervention and improved outcomes in treating Sepsis cases.

Reinforcement learning as a robotics-inspired framework for insect navigation: from spatial representations to neural implementation

Bees are among the master navigators of the insect world. Despite impressive advances in robot navigation research, the performance of these insects is still unrivaled by any artificial system in terms of training efficiency and generalization capabilities, particularly considering the limited computational capacity. On the other hand, computational principles underlying these extraordinary feats are still only partially understood. The theoretical framework of reinforcement learning (RL) provides an ideal focal point to bring the two fields together for mutual benefit. In particular, we analyze and compare representations of space in robot and insect navigation models through the lens of RL, as the efficiency of insect navigation is likely rooted in an efficient and robust internal representation, linking retinotopic (egocentric) visual input with the geometry of the environment. While RL has long been at the core of robot navigation research, current computational theories of insect navigation are not commonly formulated within this framework, but largely as an associative learning process implemented in the insect brain, especially in the mushroom body (MB). Here we propose specific hypothetical components of the MB circuit that would enable the implementation of a certain class of relatively simple RL algorithms, capable of integrating distinct components of a navigation task, reminiscent of hierarchical RL models used in robot navigation. We discuss how current models of insect and robot navigation are exploring representations beyond classical, complete map-like representations, with spatial information being embedded in the respective latent representations to varying degrees.

Multi-trait modeling and machine learning discover new markers associated with stem traits in alfalfa

Alfalfa biomass can be fractionated into leaf and stem components. Leaves comprise a protein-rich and highly digestible portion of biomass for ruminant animals, while stems constitute a high fiber and less digestible fraction, representing 50 to 70% of the biomass. However, little attention has focused on stem-related traits, which are a key aspect in improving the nutritional value and intake potential of alfalfa. This study aimed to identify molecular markers associated with four morphological traits in a panel of five populations of alfalfa generated over two cycles of divergent selection based on 16-h and 96-h in vitro neutral detergent fiber digestibility in stems. Phenotypic traits of stem color, presence of stem pith cells, winter standability, and winter injury were modeled using univariate and multivariate spatial mixed linear models (MLM), and the predicted values were used as response variables in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The alfalfa panel was genotyped using a 3K DArTag SNP markers for the evaluation of the genetic structure and GWAS. Principal component and population structure analyses revealed differentiations between populations selected for high- and low-digestibility. Thirteen molecular markers were significantly associated with stem traits using either univariate or multivariate MLM. Additionally, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) algorithms were implemented to determine marker importance scores for stem traits and validate the GWAS results. The top-ranked markers from SVM and RF aligned with GWAS findings for solid stem pith, winter standability, and winter injury. Additionally, SVM identified additional markers with high variable importance for solid stem pith and winter injury. Most molecular markers were located in coding regions. These markers can facilitate marker-assisted selection to expedite breeding programs to increase winter hardiness or stem palatability.

Thermodynamics-inspired explanations of artificial intelligence

In recent years, predictive machine learning models have gained prominence across various scientific domains. However, their black-box nature necessitates establishing trust in them before accepting their predictions as accurate. One promising strategy involves employing explanation techniques that elucidate the rationale behind a model's predictions in a way that humans can understand. However, assessing the degree of human interpretability of these explanations is a nontrivial challenge. In this work, we introduce interpretation entropy as a universal solution for evaluating the human interpretability of any linear model. Using this concept and drawing inspiration from classical thermodynamics, we present Thermodynamics-inspired Explainable Representations of AI and other black-box Paradigms, a method for generating optimally human-interpretable explanations in a model-agnostic manner. We demonstrate the wide-ranging applicability of this method by explaining predictions from various black-box model architectures across diverse domains, including molecular simulations, text, and image classification.

Exploring the impact of physiotherapy on health outcomes in older adults with chronic diseases: a cross-sectional analysis

Objective

This study evaluates the impact of physiotherapy interventions on health outcomes and explores the correlation between physiotherapy session characteristics and improvements in health among older individuals.

Methods

In a cross-sectional design, 384 older adults with chronic conditions such as arthritis, osteoporosis, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), diabetes, and hypertension were recruited.

Results

The proportion of arthritis (39.1%) and hypertension (45.8%) was notably high. Participants receiving physiotherapy showed significant improvements in pain levels (mean reduction from 5.09 to 2.95), mobility scores (improvement from 3.0 to 3.96), and functional independence. A positive correlation was identified between the frequency of physiotherapy sessions and pain reduction (r = 0.26, p = 0.035), and a stronger correlation between session duration and both pain reduction (r = 0.38, p = 0.002) and mobility improvement (r = 0.43, p = 0.001). High satisfaction rates with physiotherapy were reported, and age was found to be a significant negative predictor of health outcomes (Coef. = -0.3402, p = 0.0009).

Conclusion

Physiotherapy interventions significantly improve health outcomes in older adults with chronic diseases.

Effects of different soil and water conservation measures on plant functional traits in the Loess Plateau

Soil and water conservation measures (SWCM) have wide-ranging effects on vegetation and soil, and their effects on the ecosystem are multifaceted, with complex mechanisms. While numerous studies have focused on the impact of such measures on soil, the improvement of plant functional traits is a major factor in the ecological recovery of the Loess Plateau. This survey extensively investigated no measure plots, vegetation measure plots, and engineering measure plots in the Loess Plateau. The impact of SWCM on plant functional traits was investigated using structural equation modeling. We examined six plant functional traits-leaf dry weight (LD), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf tissue density (LTD), leaf total phosphorus (LTP), leaf total nitrogen (LTN), and leaf volume (LV)-correlated with resource acquisition and allocation. In 122 plots, we explored the effects of measures, soil, diversity, and community structure on the weighted average of plant functional traits. The findings showed substantial positive correlations between LD and SLA, LD and LV, SLA and LV, SLA and LTP, and LTP and LTN. LTD has a substantial negative correlation with LD, LTD with SLA, and LTD with LV. SWCM limits diversity, and the mechanisms by which it affects plant functional traits vary. In the structural equation model (SEM) of vegetation measures, improving community structure enhances plant functional traits, but soil factors have the greatest influence on plant functional traits in SEM engineering measures. Plant functional trait differences on the Loess Plateau result are due to differential plant responses to diverse soil properties and community structure. Vegetation measures enhance the chemical properties of plant functional traits, while engineering measures improve physical properties. The study provides a theoretical foundation for vegetation restoration and management following the implementation of diverse SWCM.

Self-Supervised Dam Deformation Anomaly Detection Based on Temporal-Spatial Contrast Learning

The detection of anomalies in dam deformation is paramount for evaluating structural integrity and facilitating early warnings, representing a critical aspect of dam health monitoring (DHM). Conventional data-driven methods for dam anomaly detection depend extensively on historical data; however, obtaining annotated data is both expensive and labor-intensive. Consequently, methodologies that leverage unlabeled or semi-labeled data are increasingly gaining popularity. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal contrastive learning pretraining (STCLP) strategy designed to extract discriminative features from unlabeled datasets of dam deformation. STCLP innovatively combines spatial contrastive learning based on temporal contrastive learning to capture representations embodying both spatial and temporal characteristics. Building upon this, a novel anomaly detection method for dam deformation utilizing STCLP is proposed. This method transfers pretrained parameters to targeted downstream classification tasks and leverages prior knowledge for enhanced fine-tuning. For validation, an arch dam serves as the case study. The results reveal that the proposed method demonstrates excellent performance, surpassing other benchmark models.

Explainable Ensemble Learning and Multilayer Perceptron Modeling for Compressive Strength Prediction of Ultra-High-Performance Concrete

The performance of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) allows for the design and creation of thinner elements with superior overall durability. The compressive strength of UHPC is a value that can be reached after a certain period of time through a series of tests and cures. However, this value can be estimated by machine-learning methods. In this study, multilayer perceptron (MLP) and Stacking Regressor, an ensemble machine-learning models, is used to predict the compressive strength of high-performance concrete. Then, the ML model's performance is explained with a feature importance analysis and Shapley additive explanations (SHAPs), and the developed models are interpreted. The effect of using different random splits for the training and test sets has been investigated. It was observed that the stacking regressor, which combined the outputs of Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Category Boosting (CatBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Extra Trees regressors using random forest as the final estimator, performed significantly better than the MLP regressor. It was shown that the compressive strength was predicted by the stacking regressor with an average R2 score of 0.971 on the test set. On the other hand, the average R2 score of the MLP model was 0.909. The results of the SHAP analysis showed that the age of concrete and the amounts of silica fume, fiber, superplasticizer, cement, aggregate, and water have the greatest impact on the model predictions.

Predicting Steady-State Metabolic Power in Cerebral Palsy, Stroke, and the Elderly During Walking With and Without Assistive Devices

PURPOSE

Individuals with walking impairment, such as those with cerebral palsy, often face challenges in leading physically active lives due to the high energy cost of movement. Assistive devices like powered exoskeletons aim to alleviate this burden and improve mobility. Traditionally, optimizing the effectiveness of such devices has relied on time-consuming laboratory-based measurements of energy expenditure, which may not be feasible for some patient populations. To address this, our study aimed to enhance the state-of-the-art predictive model for estimating steady-state metabolic rate from 2-min walking trials to include individuals with and without walking disabilities and for a variety of terrains and wearable device conditions.

METHODS

Using over 200 walking trials collected from eight prior exoskeleton-related studies, we trained a simple linear machine learning model to predict metabolic power at steady state based on condition-specific factors, such as whether the trial was conducted on a treadmill (level or incline) or outdoors, as well as demographic information, such as the participant's weight or presence of walking impairment, and 2 minutes of metabolic data.

RESULTS

We demonstrated the ability to predict steady-state metabolic rate to within an accuracy of 4.71 ± 2.7% on average across all walking conditions and patient populations, including with assistive devices and on different terrains.

CONCLUSION

This work seeks to unlock the use of in-the-loop optimization of wearable assistive devices in individuals with limited walking capacity. A freely available MATLAB application allows other researchers to easily apply our model.