Dangers of using "optimal" cutpoints in the evaluation of prognostic factors

The Correlation Between Serum Chemokines and Clinical Outcome in Patients with Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer

BACKGROUND

Biliary tract cancers (BTCs) are known to have a dismal prognosis. A number of chemokines play important roles in the progress of BTCs. However, the serum levels of chemokines in BTCs have not yet been explored.

METHODS

The sera of healthy donors (n = 8) and patients with BTCs who were enrolled in second line sunitinib trials (n = 27) were collected. The concentrations of three kinds of chemokines (CXCL5, CXCL8 and CXCL12) were measured using ELISA assay. The median concentrations of chemokines were compared between healthy donors and BTC patients and the role of chemokines as a prognostic biomarker was examined.

RESULTS

BTC patients generally had higher serum levels of CXCL5 and CXCL12 compared to healthy donors. Patients with cholangiocarcinoma showed significantly higher levels of serum CXCL12 than patients with gallbladder cancer. In survival analysis, only CXCL12 level showed a prognostic impact on overall survival (median OS: 6.9 vs. 0.9 months in low CXCL12 vs. high CXCL12, respectively; P = .008). High CXCL5 levels were also correlated with poor survival without statistical insignificance (median OS: 6.2 vs. 2.0 months in low CXCL5 vs. high CXCL5, respectively; P = .070).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant difference in OS according to the level of CXCL12, suggesting that serum CXCL12 levels may be a useful surrogate marker for clinical outcome in advanced BTCs.

Clinicopathologic implications of CD8+/Foxp3+ ratio and miR-574-3p/PD-L1 axis in spinal chordoma patients

Currently, little is known about the interactions between microRNAs (miRNAs) and the PD-1/PD-L1 signaling pathway in chordoma, and data discussing the role of the immune milieu in chordoma prognosis are limited. We aimed to analyze the relationship between PD-L1, miR-574-3p, microenvironmental tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and clinicopathological features of spinal chordoma patients. PD-L1 expression and TILs (including Foxp3+, CD8+, PD-1+ and PD-L1+) were assessed by immunohistochemistry in tumor specimens of 54 spinal chordoma patients. MiRNAs microarray and bioinformatical analysis were used to identify miRNAs potentially regulating PD-L1 expression, which were further validated by quantitative RT-PCR. miR-574-3p was identified to potentially regulate PD-L1 expression in chordoma, which inversely correlated with PD-L1. Positive PD-L1 expression on tumor cells was associated with advanced stages (P = 0.041) and TILs infiltration (P = 0.005), whereas decreased miR-574-3p level correlated with higher muscle invasion (P = 0.012), more severe tumor necrosis (P = 0.022) and poor patient survival. Importantly, a patient subgroup with PD-L1+/miR-574-3plow chordoma phenotype was significantly associated with worse local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) (P = 0.026). PD-1+ TILs density was associated with surrounding muscle invasion (P = 0.014), and independently portended poor LRFS (P = 0.040), while PD-L1+ TILs showed tendencies of less aggressive clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis of OS only found CD8+/Foxp3+ ratio to be independent prognostic factor (P = 0.022). These findings may be useful to stratify patients into prognostic groups and provide a rationale for the use of checkpoint blockade therapy, possibly by administering miR-574-3p mimics, in spinal chordoma.

miR-139-5p Modulates Radiotherapy Resistance in Breast Cancer by Repressing Multiple Gene Networks of DNA Repair and ROS Defense

Radiotherapy is essential to the treatment of most solid tumors and acquired or innate resistance to this therapeutic modality is a major clinical problem. Here we show that miR-139-5p is a potent modulator of radiotherapy response in breast cancer via its regulation of genes involved in multiple DNA repair and reactive oxygen species defense pathways. Treatment of breast cancer cells with a miR-139-5p mimic strongly synergized with radiation both in vitro and in vivo, resulting in significantly increased oxidative stress, accumulation of unrepaired DNA damage, and induction of apoptosis. Several miR-139-5p target genes were also strongly predictive of outcome in radiotherapy-treated patients across multiple independent breast cancer cohorts. These prognostically relevant miR-139-5p target genes were used as companion biomarkers to identify radioresistant breast cancer xenografts highly amenable to sensitization by cotreatment with a miR-139-5p mimetic.Significance: The microRNA described in this study offers a potentially useful predictive biomarker of radiosensitivity in solid tumors and a generally applicable druggable target for tumor radiosensitization. Cancer Res; 78(2); 501-15. ©2017 AACR.

Clinical Significance of Cathepsin D Concentration in Tumor Cytosol of Primary Breast Cancer

Background

Cathepsin D is the proteolytic enzyme most frequently implicated as a prognostic factor in primary breast cancer. In the present study we evaluated by means of an immunoradiometric assay the tumor content of this protease in primary breast cancer, its relationship with tumor-related clinical and pathological parameters, and its prognostic significance in a large series of breast cancer patients.

Method

The study comprised 1033 women with histologically established invasive breast cancer. Cathepsin D was measured in cytosol samples by means of an immunoradiometric assay to determine the total amount of cathepsin D (52 kDa, 48 kDa and 34 kDa). Evaluation of relapse-free survival and cause-specific survival was performed in the group of 1003 patients without evidence of metastasis at the time of initial diagnosis. The median follow-up of the patients who were free of recurrence was 54 months.

Results

Cathepsin D levels showed a wide range among the studied tumors (n=1033; median (range) 41 (0.9–2504) pmol/mg protein). Statistical analysis showed that the median cathepsin D levels were considerably higher in large tumors (T2–4) than in smaller ones (T1) (p=0.017), as well as in node-positive than in node-negative tumors (p=0.004). Cathepsin D levels were also higher in ductal tumors than in the other histological types (p=0.001), as well as in moderately or poorly differentiated tumors (p<0.001). Likewise, the median value of the protease was significantly higher in ER or PgR-positive tumors than in hormone receptor-negative ones (p=0.011 and p=0.004, respectively), as well as in aneuploid tumors than in diploid tumors (p=0.029). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that elevated cathepsin D levels (>59 pmol/mg protein) were notably associated with a shorter cause-specific survival in the whole group of patients with breast cancer, as well as in the subgroup of node-positive patients (p<0.05).

Conclusions

This study suggests that elevated intratumoral cathepsin D levels may identify a subset of node-positive breast cancer patients showing a high probability of earlier death.

Epigenetically Regulated Chromosome 14q32 miRNA Cluster Induces Metastasis and Predicts Poor Prognosis in Lung Adenocarcinoma Patients

Most lung cancer deaths are related to metastases, which indicates the necessity of detecting and inhibiting tumor cell dissemination. Here, we aimed to identify miRNAs involved in metastasis of lung adenocarcinoma as prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets. To that end, lymph node metastasis-associated miRNAs were identified in The Cancer Genome Atlas lung adenocarcinoma patient cohort (sequencing data; n = 449) and subsequently validated by qRT-PCR in an independent clinical cohort (n = 108). Overexpression of miRNAs located on chromosome 14q32 was associated with metastasis in lung adenocarcinoma patients. Importantly, Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test revealed that higher expression levels of individual 14q32 miRNAs (mir-539, mir-323b, and mir-487a) associated with worse disease-free survival of never-smoker patients. Epigenetic analysis including DNA methylation microarray data and bisulfite sequencing validation demonstrated that the induction of 14q32 cluster correlated with genomic hypomethylation of the 14q32 locus. CRISPR activation technology, applied for the first time to functionally study the increase of clustered miRNA levels in a coordinated manner, showed that simultaneous overexpression of 14q32 miRNAs promoted tumor cell migratory and invasive properties. Analysis of individual miRNAs by mimic transfection further illustrated that miR-323b-3p, miR-487a-3p, and miR-539-5p significantly contributed to the invasive phenotype through the indirect regulation of different target genes. In conclusion, overexpression of 14q32 miRNAs, associated with the respective genomic hypomethylation, promotes metastasis and correlates with poor patient prognosis in lung adenocarcinoma.Implications: This study points to chromosome 14q32 miRNAs as promising targets to inhibit tumor cell dissemination and to predict patient prognosis in lung adenocarcinoma. Mol Cancer Res; 16(3); 390-402. ©2018 AACR.

Integrated tumor identification and automated scoring minimizes pathologist involvement and provides new insights to key biomarkers in breast cancer

Digital image analysis (DIA) is becoming central to the quantitative evaluation of tissue biomarkers for discovery, diagnosis and therapeutic selection for the delivery of precision medicine. In this study, automated DIA using a new purpose-built software platform (QuPath) is applied to a cohort of 293 breast cancer patients to score five biomarkers in tissue microarrays (TMAs): ER, PR, HER2, Ki67 and p53. This software is able to measure IHC expression following fully automated tumor recognition in the same immunohistochemical (IHC)-stained tissue section, as part of a rapid workflow to ensure objectivity and accelerate biomarker analysis. The digital scores produced by QuPath were compared with manual scores by a pathologist and shown to have a good level of concordance in all cases (Cohen's κ>0.6), and almost perfect agreement for the clinically relevant biomarkers ER, PR and HER2 (κ>0.86). To assess prognostic value, cutoff thresholds could be applied to both manual and automated scores using the QuPath software, and survival analysis performed for 5-year overall survival. DIA was shown to be capable of replicating the statistically significant stratification of patients achieved using manual scoring across all biomarkers (P<0.01, log-rank test). Furthermore, the image analysis scores were shown to consistently lead to statistical significance across a wide range of potential cutoff thresholds, indicating the robustness of the method, and identify sub-populations of cases exhibiting different expression patterns within the p53 and Ki67 data sets that warrant further investigation. These findings have demonstrated QuPath's suitability for fast, reproducible, high-throughput TMA analysis across a range of important biomarkers. This was achieved using our tumor recognition algorithms for IHC-stained sections, trained interactively without the need for any additional tumor recognition markers, for example, cytokeratin, to obtain greater insight into the relationship between biomarker expression and clinical outcome applicable to a range of cancer types.

Clinical significance of the preoperative platelet count and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLT-PLR) in patients with surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of the preoperative platelet count (PLT) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with surgically resected non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 202 patients treated for NSCLC between January 2002 and December 2007. Preoperative PLT and PLR scores were calculated using data obtained at the time of admission. Patients were assigned a PLT-PLR score of 0, 1, or 2 based upon the presence of thrombocytosis, an elevated PLR, or both.

RESULTS

Patients with a PLT-PLR score of 2 had a significantly lower median overall survival (OS) [12.715 mo; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.215-24.215] when compared with patients with PLT-PLR scores of 1 (52.238 mo; 95% CI 17.062-87.414, p = 0.002) or 0 (not reached, p < 0.001). Relapse-free survival (RFS) was also significantly decreased in patients with a PLT-PLR score of 2 (10.107 mo; 95% CI 3.388-16.826) relative to patients with a PLT-PLR score of 1 (27.214 mo; 95% CI 0-56.253, p = 0.002) or 0 (58.893 mo; 95% CI 32.938-84.848, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, a PLT-PLR score of 2 was an independent prognostic factor for poor OS (hazard ratio (HR) 3.473; 95% CI 1.765-6.835, p < 0.001) and RFS (HR 2.286; 95% CI 1.243-4.206, p = 0.008) compared with a PLT-PLR score of 0.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative PLT-PLR scores can be useful for predicting disease prognosis in patients with surgically resected NSCLC. Further large prospective studies will be necessary to validate our findings.

Top ten errors of statistical analysis in observational studies for cancer research

Observational studies using registry data make it possible to compile quality information and can surpass clinical trials in some contexts. However, data heterogeneity, analytical complexity, and the diversity of aspects to be taken into account when interpreting results makes it easy for mistakes to be made and calls for mastery of statistical methodology. Some questionable research practices that include poor analytical data management are responsible for the low reproducibility of some results; yet, there is a paucity of information in the literature regarding specific statistical pitfalls of cancer studies. In addition to proposing how to avoid or solve them, this article seeks to expose ten common problematic situations in the analysis of cancer registries: convenience, dichotomization, stratification, regression to the mean, impact of sample size, competing risks, immortal time and survivor bias, management of missing values, and data dredging.

Serum concentrations of active tamoxifen metabolites predict long-term survival in adjuvantly treated breast cancer patients

Background

Controversies exist as to whether the genetic polymorphisms of the enzymes responsible for the metabolism of tamoxifen can predict breast cancer outcome in patients using adjuvant tamoxifen. Direct measurement of concentrations of active tamoxifen metabolites in serum may be a more biological plausible and robust approach. We have investigated the association between CYP2D6 genotypes, serum concentrations of active tamoxifen metabolites, and long-term outcome in tamoxifen treated breast cancer patients.

Methods

From an original observational study comprising 817 breast cancer patients, 99 women with operable breast cancer were retrospectively included in the present study. This cohort of patients were adjuvantly treated with tamoxifen, had provided serum samples suitable for measuring tamoxifen metabolites, and were relapse-free at 3 years after the primary treatment commenced. The median follow-up time from this entry point to breast cancer death was 13.9 years. Patients were CYP2D6 genotyped and grouped into four CYP2D6 phenotype groups (Ultra rapid, extensive, intermediate, and poor metabolizers). Tamoxifen and nine metabolites were quantified in serum (n = 86) and compared with CYP2D6 phenotype groups and outcome.

Results

Breast cancer patients with low concentrations of Z-4-hydroxy-tamoxifen (Z-4OHtam; ≤ 3.26 nM) had a breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of 60% compared to 84% in patients with Z-4OHtam concentrations > 3.26 nM (p = 0.020, log-rank hazard ratio (HR) = 3.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.14–11.07). For patients with Z-4-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen (Z-endoxifen) levels ≤ 9.00 nM BCSS was 57% compared to 84% for patients with concentrations > 9.00 nM (p = 0.029, HR = 3.73, 95% CI = 1.05–13.22). Low concentrations of Z-4OHtam and Z-endoxifen were associated with poorer survival also after adjusting for clinically relevant variables (HR = 4.27, 95% CI = 1.35–13.58, and HR = 3.70, 95% CI = 1.03–13.25, respectively). Overall survival analysis showed similar survival differences for both active metabolites. The Antiestrogen Activity Score showed comparable effects, but did not improve the prognostic information.

Conclusions

Patients with Z-4OHtam and Z-endoxifen concentrations lower than 3.26 nM or 9.00 nM, respectively, showed an adverse outcome. Our results suggest that direct measurement of active tamoxifen metabolite concentrations could be of clinical value. Validation in larger study cohorts is warranted.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-017-0916-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Immature platelets as a novel biomarker for adverse cardiovascular events in patients after non-cardiac surgery

This study evaluates whether immature platelets (IPF) determined in the post anesthesia care unit (PACU) can predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or other thromboembolic events after intermediate and high-risk surgery. IPF are increased in patients with acute coronary syndrome and recently gained interest as novel biomarker for risk stratification. In this prospective observational trial 732 patients undergoing intermediate or high-risk non-cardiac surgery were enrolled (NCT02097602). IPF was measured preoperatively and postoperatively in the PACU. Primary outcome was a composite endpoint defined as MACE, deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism during hospital stay (modMACE). A cut off for IPF identifying a threshold between a low and high risk for modMACE was calculated by logrank optimization. A multivariate Cox regression was calculated in a forward stepwise manner to assess the relation between this IPF cut off and modMACE as well as other established risk factors (inclusion if p<0.05). Preoperatively, there were no differences in IPF between patients with and without modMACE (3.1% [2.2% – 4.7%](median [interquartile range]) vs. 2.8% [1.9% – 4.3%]. Patients with modMACE (28 of 730 patients; 3.8%) had higher IPF values in the PACU compared to patients without modMACE (3.6% [2.6–6%] vs. 2.9% [2–4.4%]; p=0.011). The optimal cut off of IPF > 5.4% was associated with an increased risk for modMACE after adjustment for covariates (hazard ratio: 2.528; 95% confidence interval: 1.156 to 5.528, p=0.02). In conclusion, IPF is an independent predictor of modMACE after surgery and might improve risk stratification of surgical patients.

Institution where the work was performed and funded: Klinikum rechts der Isar der Technischen Universität München, Ismaningerstr. 22, 81675 Munich, Germany.

'Whose atlas I use, his song I sing?' - The impact of anatomical atlases on fiber tract contributions to cognitive deficits after stroke

Nowadays, different anatomical atlases exist for the anatomical interpretation of the results from neuroimaging and lesion analysis studies that investigate the contribution of white matter fiber tract integrity to cognitive (dys)function. A major problem with the use of different atlases in different studies, however, is that the anatomical interpretation of neuroimaging and lesion analysis results might vary as a function of the atlas used. This issue might be particularly prominent in studies that investigate the contribution of white matter fiber tract integrity to cognitive (dys)function. We used a single large-sample dataset of right brain damaged stroke patients with and without cognitive deficit (here: spatial neglect) to systematically compare the influence of three different, widely-used white matter fiber tract atlases (1 histology-based atlas and 2 DTI tractography-based atlases) on conclusions concerning the involvement of white matter fiber tracts in the pathogenesis of cognitive dysfunction. We both calculated the overlap between the statistical lesion analysis results and each long association fiber tract (topological analyses) and performed logistic regressions on the extent of fiber tract damage in each individual for each long association white matter fiber tract (hodological analyses). For the topological analyses, our results suggest that studies that use tractography-based atlases are more likely to conclude that white matter integrity is critical for a cognitive (dys)function than studies that use a histology-based atlas. The DTI tractography-based atlases classified approximately 10 times as many voxels of the statistical map as being located in a long association white matter fiber tract than the histology-based atlas. For hodological analyses on the other hand, we observed that the conclusions concerning the overall importance of long association fiber tract integrity to cognitive function do not necessarily depend on the white matter atlas used, but conclusions may vary as a function of atlas used at the level of individual fiber tracts. Moreover, these analyses revealed that hodological studies that express the individual extent of injury to each fiber tract as a binomial variable are more likely to conclude that white matter integrity is critical for a cognitive function than studies that express the individual extent of injury to each fiber tract as a continuous variable.

Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs)-related genomic signature predicts chemotherapy response in breast cancer

PURPOSE

The present study evaluated whether morphological-measured stromal and intra-tumour tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) levels were associated with gene expression profiles, and whether TILs-associated genomic signature (GS) could be used to predict clinical outcomes and response to therapies in several breast cancer subtypes.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated haematoxylin eosin (HE)-TILs levels and gene expression profiling data from 40 patients with primary breast cancer and extracted the 22 overexpressed genes in cases with high TILs scores as the TILs-GS. The TILs-GS were compared with breast cancer subtype and were evaluated predictive values for prognosis and response to therapies.

RESULTS

Higher TILs-GS expressions were observed for triple-negative and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive (+) breast cancers, compared to the luminal types (P < 0.001). With the exception of HER2+, the TILs-GS had no prognostic value in subtypes of breast cancers. The Wilcoxon test revealed significantly different TILs-GS levels between the cases with pathological complete response (pCR) and residual disease after anthracycline and taxane-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy, with the exception of the luminal-low proliferation subtype. In the multivariate analysis, pCR was independently associated with smaller tumour size, higher histological grade, ER negativity, HER2 positivity and higher TILs-GS scores (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.30-3.14, P = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

TILs-GS was associated with stromal and intra-tumour TILs levels, as evaluated using HE, which predicted prognosis and chemotherapy response in several breast cancer subtypes. Further studies are needed to perform stratification according to TILs-GS levels and the conventional breast cancer subtypes.

Stereotactic radiosurgery of early melanoma brain metastases after initiation of anti-CTLA-4 treatment is associated with improved intracranial control

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies suggest that radiation can boost antitumor immune response by stimulating release of tumor-specific antigens. However, the optimal timing between radiotherapy and immune checkpoint blockade to achieve potentially synergistic benefits is unclear.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Multi-institutional retrospective analysis was conducted of ninety-nine metastatic melanoma patients from 2007 to 2014 treated with ipilimumab who later received stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for new brain metastases that developed after starting immunotherapy. All patients had complete blood count acquired before SRS. Primary outcomes were intracranial disease control and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 15.5months. In the MD Anderson cohort, patients who received SRS after 5.5months (n=20) of their last dose of ipilimumab had significantly worse intracranial control than patients who received SRS within 5.5months (n=51) (median 3.63 vs. 8.09months; hazard ratio [HR] 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-4.16, p=0.041). OS was not different between the two arms. The improvement in intracranial control was confirmed in an independent validation cohort of 28 patients treated at Yale-New Haven Hospital. Circulating absolute lymphocyte count before SRS predicted for treatment response as those with baseline counts >1000/µL had reduced risk of intracranial recurrence compared with those with ≤1000/µL (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.0.23-0.94, p=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In this multi-institutional study, patients who received SRS for new brain metastases within 5.5months after ipilimumab therapy had better intracranial disease control than those who received SRS later. Moreover, higher circulating lymphocyte count was associated with improved intracranial disease control.

Expression of YES-associated protein (YAP) and its clinical significance in breast cancer tissues

The transcriptional co-activator YES-associated protein (YAP) has been reported to act as both an oncogene and tumor suppressor in breast cancers. In this study, we evaluated YAP expression immunohistochemically in 324 breast cancer tissues and correlated the expression with clinicopathological findings and patient survival data. Additionally, we reviewed the literature to clarify the role of YAP in breast cancer. We detected YAP, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth receptor-2 (HER2) expression and a Ki67 labeling index >20% in 53.4%, 49.0%, 45.0%, 28.3%, and 57.4% of invasive ductal carcinoma tissues, respectively. YAP is mainly localized within the tumor cell nuclei, and its expression was associated with the PR status and luminal A subtype. YAP expression also inversely correlated with the HER2 and Ki67 levels and lymph node metastasis. Kaplan-Meier curves revealed associations of YAP expression with favorable disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival in patients with luminal A breast cancer and with favorable DFS association among patients with invasive ductal carcinoma, luminal B (HER2-), and luminal B (HER2+) breast cancers. A multivariate Cox analysis revealed that YAP expression and PR status were independent favorable predictors of DFS and overall survival, respectively, among patients with breast cancer, whereas tumor-node-metastasis stage and an old age were independent predictors of a poor DFS. Our results, together with the literature review findings, suggest that YAP could be a prognostic marker in patients with breast cancer.

Evidence-based thresholds for the volume-value relationship in shoulder arthroplasty: outcomes and economies of scale

BACKGROUND

Whereas several studies suggest that high-volume surgeons and hospitals deliver superior patient outcomes with greater cost efficiency, no evidence-based thresholds separating high-volume surgeons and hospitals from those that are low or medium volume exist in shoulder arthroplasty. The objective of this study was to establish meaningful thresholds that take outcomes and cost into consideration for surgeons and hospitals performing shoulder arthroplasty.

METHODS

Using 9546 patients undergoing primary shoulder arthroplasty for osteoarthritis from an administrative database, we created and applied 4 models using stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We generated 4 sets of thresholds predictive of adverse outcomes, namely, increased length of stay (LOS) and increased cost for both surgeon and hospital volume.

RESULTS

SSLR analysis of the 4 ROC curves by surgeon volume produced 3 volume categories. LOS and cost by annual shoulder arthroplasty surgeon volume produced the same strata: 0-4 (low), 5-14 (medium), and 15 or more (high). LOS and cost by annual shoulder arthroplasty hospital volume produced the same strata: 0-3 (low), 4-14 (medium), and 15 or more (high). LOS and cost decreased significantly (P < .05) in progressively higher volume categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study validates economies of scale in shoulder arthroplasty by demonstrating a direct relationship between volume and value through SSLR analysis of ROC curves for risk-based volume stratification using meaningful volume definitions for low-, medium-, and high-volume surgeons and hospitals. The described volume-value relationship offers patients, surgeons, hospitals, and other stakeholders meaningful thresholds for the optimal delivery of shoulder arthroplasty.

Using Marital Status and Continuous Marital Satisfaction Ratings to Predict Depressive Symptoms in Married and Unmarried Women With Systemic Sclerosis: A Canadian Scleroderma Research Group Study

OBJECTIVE

Married persons have, on average, better mental health than nonmarried persons. Among married persons, marital satisfaction is associated with better mental health. Studies on mental health in married and nonmarried persons that consider marital satisfaction have categorized patients as satisfied versus unsatisfied, which reduces statistical power and does not generate clinically useful information on mental health across the satisfaction spectrum. Our objective was to demonstrate a novel regression approach to evaluate mental health in women with systemic sclerosis (SSc), comparing married and unmarried women, accounting for continuously measured marital satisfaction.

METHODS

Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and marital satisfaction with the Dyadic Adjustment Scale-7. A single multiple linear regression model was used to predict CES-D scores from marital status and, among married women, continuously measured marital satisfaction, controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 725 women, 494 (68%) were married or living as married. On average, married women had mean CES-D scores that were 2.0 points (0.19 SDs) lower than unmarried women (P = 0.013). Among married women, a 1.0 SD increase in marital satisfaction was associated with a 2.2 point (0.21 SDs) decrease in CES-D scores (P < 0.001). Married women whose marital satisfaction scores were below the 19th percentile had greater predicted depressive symptoms than unmarried women. Married women's predicted CES-D scores ranged from 6.7 points lower to 6.9 points higher than those of unmarried women, depending on marital satisfaction.

CONCLUSION

Comparisons of mental health in married and unmarried patients with rheumatic diseases should include continuously measured marital satisfaction.

Risk of a seizure recurrence after a breakthrough seizure and the implications for driving: further analysis of the standard versus new antiepileptic drugs (SANAD) randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

A breakthrough seizure is one occurring after at least 12 months seizure freedom while on treatment. The Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) allows an individual to return to driving once they have been seizure free for 12 months following a breakthrough seizure. This is based on the assumption that the risk of a further seizure in the next 12 months has dropped <20%. This analysis considers whether the prescribed 1 year off driving following a breakthrough seizure is sufficient for this and stratifies risk according to clinical characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, INTERVENTIONS AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The multicentre UK-based Standard versus New Antiepileptic Drugs (SANAD) study was a randomised controlled trial assessing standard and new antiepileptic drugs for patients with newly diagnosed epilepsy. For participants aged at least 16 with a breakthrough seizure, data have been analysed to estimate the annual seizure recurrence risk following a period of 6, 9 and 12 months seizure freedom. Regression modelling was used to investigate how antiepileptic drug treatment and a number of clinical factors influence the risk of seizure recurrence.

RESULTS

At 12 months following a breakthrough seizure, the overall unadjusted risk of a recurrence over the next 12 months is lower than 20%, risk 17% (95% CI 15% to 19%). However, some patient subgroups have been identified which have an annual recurrence risk significantly greater than 20% after an initial 12-month seizure-free period following a breakthrough seizure.

CONCLUSIONS

This reanalysis of SANAD provides estimates of seizure recurrence risks following a breakthrough seizure that will inform policy and guidance about regaining an ordinary driving licence. Further guidance is needed as to how such data should be used.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

SANAD is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Register ISRCTN38354748.

Prognostic value of 18F-FDG-PET/CT in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The prognostic role of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography CT (18F-FDG PET/CT) parameters is still controversial in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. We sought to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the prognostic value of maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) on event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies comprising 1,938 patients were included in this study. The combined hazard ratios (HRs) for EFS were 2.63 (95%CI 1.71-4.05) for SUVmax, 2.55 (95%CI 1.49-4.35) for MTV, and 3.32 (95%CI 1.23-8.95) for TLG. The pooled HRs for OS were 2.07 (95%CI 1.54-2.79) for SUVmax, 3.86 (95%CI 1.85-8.06) for MTV, and 2.60 (95%CI 1.55-4.34) for TLG. The prognostic role of SUVmax, MTV and TLG remained similar in the sub-group analyses.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed to identify studies which associated 18F-FDG PET/CT to clinical survival outcomes of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. The summarized HRs for EFS and OS were estimated by using fixed- or random-effect models according to heterogeneity between trials.

CONCLUSIONS

The present meta-analysis confirms that high values of SUVmax, MTV and TLG predicted a higher risk of adverse events or death in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma, despite clinically heterogeneous nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients and the various methods adopted between these studies.

Waste, Leaks, and Failures in the Biomarker Pipeline

BACKGROUND

The large, expanding literature on biomarkers is characterized by almost ubiquitous significant results, with claims about the potential importance, but few of these discovered biomarkers are used in routine clinical care.

CONTENT

The pipeline of biomarker development includes several specific stages: discovery, validation, clinical translation, evaluation, implementation (and, in the case of nonutility, deimplementation). Each of these stages can be plagued by problems that cause failures of the overall pipeline. Some problems are nonspecific challenges for all biomedical investigation, while others are specific to the peculiarities of biomarker research. Discovery suffers from poor methods and incomplete and selective reporting. External independent validation is limited. Selection for clinical translation is often shaped by nonrational choices. Evaluation is sparse and the clinical utility of many biomarkers remains unknown. The regulatory environment for biomarkers remains weak and guidelines can reach biased or divergent recommendations. Removing inefficient or even harmful biomarkers that have been entrenched in clinical care can meet with major resistance.

SUMMARY

The current biomarker pipeline is too prone to failures. Consideration of clinical needs should become a starting point for the development of biomarkers. Improvements can include the use of more stringent methodology, better reporting, larger collaborative studies, careful external independent validation, preregistration, rigorous systematic reviews and umbrella reviews, pivotal randomized trials, and implementation and deimplementation studies. Incentives should be aligned toward delivering useful biomarkers.

Data-Based Radiation Oncology: Design of Clinical Trials in the Toxicity Biomarkers Era

The ability to stratify patients using a set of biomarkers, which predict that toxicity risk would allow for radiotherapy (RT) modulation and serve as a valuable tool for precision medicine and personalized RT. For patients presenting with tumors with a low risk of recurrence, modifying RT schedules to avoid toxicity would be clinically advantageous. Indeed, for the patient at low risk of developing radiation-associated toxicity, use of a hypofractionated protocol could be proposed leading to treatment time reduction and a cost-utility advantage. Conversely, for patients predicted to be at high risk for toxicity, either a more conformal form or a new technique of RT, or a multidisciplinary approach employing surgery could be included in the trial design to avoid or mitigate RT when the potential toxicity risk may be higher than the risk of disease recurrence. In addition, for patients at high risk of recurrence and low risk of toxicity, dose escalation, such as a greater boost dose, or irradiation field extensions could be considered to improve local control without severe toxicities, providing enhanced clinical benefit. In cases of high risk of toxicity, tumor control should be prioritized. In this review, toxicity biomarkers with sufficient evidence for clinical testing are presented. In addition, clinical trial designs and predictive models are described for different clinical situations.

Clinical Significance of Prognostic Nutritional Index After Surgical Treatment in Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

The prognostic nutritional index (PNI), calculated as 10 × serum albumin (g/dL) + 0.005 × total lymphocyte count (cells/mm³), can reportedly predict postoperative complications and prognosis for various types of malignancy. However, the clinical significance and prognostic value of the PNI for both short- and long-term outcomes remains uncertain in patients with lung cancer.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 248 patients with completely resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Clinicopathologic characteristics were evaluated according to the PNI, and the prognostic significance for postoperative outcomes was assessed using Cox proportional regression analysis. The survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

An optimal cutoff of 48 for recurrence-free survival (RFS) was determined using the minimum p value approach. Old age, low body mass index, large tumor size, and elevated C-reactive protein levels correlated significantly with low PNI. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that low PNI status was statistically related to postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥II) and pulmonary air leakage. Five-year overall survival (OR) rates in the high- and low-PNI groups were 80.6% and 58.5%, respectively (p = 0.002). Five-year RFS rates were 73.6% and 48.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). Furthermore, PNI was identified as an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-4.21) and RFS (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.46-4.38) by multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The PNI could represent a useful biomarker to predict postoperative complications and survival in patients with completely resected NSCLC.

Modeling Variables With a Spike at Zero: Examples and Practical Recommendations

In most epidemiologic studies and in clinical research generally, there are variables with a spike at zero, namely variables for which a proportion of individuals have zero exposure (e.g., never smokers) and among those exposed the variable has a continuous distribution. Different options exist for modeling such variables, such as categorization where the nonexposed form the reference group, or ignoring the spike by including the variable in the regression model with or without some transformation or modeling procedures. It has been shown that such situations can be analyzed by adding a binary indicator (exposed/nonexposed) to the regression model, and a method based on fractional polynomials with which to estimate a suitable functional form for the positive portion of the spike-at-zero variable distribution has been developed. In this paper, we compare different approaches using data from 3 case-control studies carried out in Germany: the Mammary Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation (MARIE), a breast cancer study conducted in 2002-2005 (Flesch-Janys et al., Int J Cancer. 2008;123(4):933-941); the Rhein-Neckar Larynx Study, a study of laryngeal cancer conducted in 1998-2000 (Dietz et al., Int J Cancer. 2004;108(6):907-911); and a lung cancer study conducted in 1988-1993 (Jöckel et al., Int J Epidemiol. 1998;27(4):549-560). Strengths and limitations of different procedures are demonstrated, and some recommendations for practical use are given.

The prognostic performance of adding patient-reported outcomes to the MASCC risk index to identify low-risk febrile neutropenia patients with solid tumors and lymphomas

PURPOSE

This study aims to develop and validate a prognostic model (PROMASCC) by incorporating the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Neutropenia (FACT-N) elements, with the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) risk index, for identifying low-risk patients with febrile neutropenia (FN) for developing serious complications.

METHODS

This was a single-center, cross-sectional observational study. Either English or Chinese versions of the FACT-N were administered to the eligible patients according to their language preference within 7 days of FN onset. Univariate analyses and multivariate analyses were performed to construct the PROMASCC model. The prognostic performance was compared between the PROMASCC model and MASCC risk index. The internal validation of the PROMASCC model was examined by bootstrapping technique.

RESULTS

From August 2014 to April 2016, a total of 120 eligible patients were included in this study. In the univariate analyses, only the malaise subscale score has been significantly associated with the favorable outcome (without complications) (P = 0.024). Compared to the MASCC risk index, the PROMASCC model has shown advantages on the improved specificity (64.3 vs. 38.1%) and positive predictive value (81.0 vs. 73.7%), lower misclassification rate (24.2 vs. 25.8%), and increased area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (0.732 vs. 0.658). The bootstrapping procedure estimates the optimism-corrected area for the PROMASCC model to be 0.731 (95% CI 0.648 to 0.814).

CONCLUSIONS

This study has developed and validated a PROMASCC model and demonstrated that additional measurement on patient's fatigue level could improve the risk stratification of patients with FN.

Association between month of birth and melanoma risk: fact or fiction?

Background

Evidence on the effect of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure in infancy on melanoma risk in later life is scarce. Three recent studies suggest that people born in spring carry a higher melanoma risk. Our study aimed at verifying whether such a seasonal pattern of melanoma risk actually exists.

Methods

Data from the population-based Cancer Registry Bavaria (CRB) on the birth months of 28 374 incident melanoma cases between 2002 and 2012 were analysed and compared with data from the Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing on the birth month distribution in the Bavarian population. Crude and adjusted analyses using negative binomial regression models were performed in the total study group and supplemented by several subgroup analyses.

Results

In the crude analysis, the birth months March-May were over-represented among melanoma cases. Negative binomial regression models adjusted only for sex and birth year revealed a seasonal association between melanoma risk and birth month with 13-21% higher relative incidence rates for March, April and May compared with the reference December. However, after additionally adjusting for the birth month distribution of the Bavarian population, these risk estimates decreased markedly and no association with the birth month was observed any more. Similar results emerged in all subgroup analyses.

Conclusions

Our large registry-based study provides no evidence that people born in spring carry a higher risk for developing melanoma in later life and thus lends no support to the hypothesis of higher UVR susceptibility during the first months of life.

Is the first urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) in women with suspected preeclampsia a prognostic factor for maternal and neonatal adverse outcome? A retrospective cohort study

Introduction

The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of the first urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes and how it relates to other prognostic factors.

Material and methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study from December 2009 to February 2012 with analysis of demographic, clinical and biochemical data from two obstetric day assessment units in hospitals in Southeast Scotland. We included 717 pregnant women, with singleton pregnancies after 20 weeks’ gestation, referred for evaluation of suspected preeclampsia and having their first ACR performed. The ability of ACR to predict future outcomes was assessed in both univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. The latter assessed its prognostic value independent of (adjusting for) existing prognostic factors. Primary outcome measures were maternal and neonatal composite adverse outcomes, and a secondary outcome was gestation at delivery.

Results

In all, 204 women (28.5%) experienced a composite adverse maternal outcome and 146 women (20.4%) experienced a composite adverse neonatal outcome. Multivariate analysis of log‐transformed ACR demonstrated that a 1‐unit increase in log ACR is associated with an increased odds of adverse maternal [odds ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45–1.80] and adverse neonatal (odds ratio 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29) composite outcomes, and with reduced gestational age at delivery (coefficient: −0.46, 95% CI −0.54 to −0.38).

Conclusions

ACR is an independent prognostic factor for maternal and neonatal adverse outcomes in suspected preeclampsia. ACR may be useful to inform risk predictions within a prognostic model.

A pilot study to assess the utility of five established variables to standardize exercise treadmill test reporting

BACKGROUND

The prognostic utility of 5 established variables (functional capacity, Duke treadmill score, chronotropic response to exercise, heart rate recovery, and premature ventricular contractions) together after routine exercise treadmill testing (ETT) has not been determined.

METHODS

We assessed the combined prognostic ability of 5 established variables for the primary outcome (myocardial infarction [MI], coronary revascularization [CR] or all-cause mortality) and the secondary outcome of unnecessary downstream testing (defined as receipt of further noninvasive imaging without CR, MI, or death) compared with standard methods. Using a retrospective study design, 1857 consecutive patients were enrolled in the year 2014 and followed until December 31, 2015. Optimal discrimination and global fit statistics were assessed from logistic regression models. Classification and regression tree (CART) methodology was used for the final model.

RESULTS

The mean [SD] age was 56.0 [12.5]years; median comorbidities (2, IQR 2) with 26% having an equivocal report. Compared to other models, a model with age, sex, and the 5 established variables showed an improvement in discrimination for the primary [c-statistic 0.85 versus (0.69-0.79)] and secondary [c-statistic 0.73 versus (0.65-0.71)] outcomes with substantial improvement in global fit. The final, optimal, 10-fold cross-validated CART model had a c-statistic of 0.78.

CONCLUSIONS

The utility of the 5-established variables, based on the current study, resides in its ability to decrease unnecessary downstream testing and improve cardiovascular event prognostication. This is accomplished by removing the subjective interpretation of currently used ETT variables that can lead to an equivocal report.

Assessing the reporting of categorised quantitative variables in observational epidemiological studies

Background

One aspect to consider when reporting results of observational studies in epidemiology is how quantitative risk factors are analysed. The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guidelines recommend that researchers describe how they handle quantitative variables when analysing data. For categorised quantitative variables, the authors are required to provide reasons and justifications informing their practice. We investigated and assessed the practices and reporting of categorised quantitative variables in epidemiology.

Methods

The assessment was based on five medical journals that publish epidemiological research. Observational studies published between April and June 2015 and investigating the relationships between quantitative exposures (or risk factors) and the outcomes were considered for assessment. A standard form was used to collect the data, and the reporting patterns amongst eligible studies were quantified and described.

Results

Out of 61 articles assessed for eligibility, 23 observational studies were included in the assessment. Categorisation of quantitative exposures occurred in 61% of these studies and reasons informing the practice were rarely provided. Only one article explained the choice of categorisation in the analysis. Transformation of quantitative exposures into four or five groups was common and dominant amongst studies using equally spaced categories. Dichotomisation was not popular; the practice featured in one article. Overall, the majority (86%) of the studies preferred ordered or arbitrary group categories. Other criterions used to decide categorical boundaries were based on established guidelines such as consensus statements and WHO standards.

Conclusion

Categorisation of continuous variables remains a dominant practice in epidemiological studies. The reasons informing the practice of categorisation within published work are limited and remain unknown in most articles. The existing STROBE guidelines could provide stronger recommendations on reporting quantitative risk factors in epidemiology.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2137-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Vascularity and Tumor Size are Significant Predictors for Recurrence after Resection of a Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumor

BACKGROUND

It is difficult to identify patients at high risk of recurrence after pancreatectomy for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PNET) using only the grading classification, especially the G2 category, which includes both benign and low- and high-grade malignant tumors.

METHODS

Forty-one patients with PNET who underwent pancreatectomy were enrolled in this study. We defined the computed tomography (CT) ratio as the CT value of the tumor divided by that of non-tumorous pancreatic parenchyma using the late arterial phase dynamic CT. The optimal cut-off values for CT ratio and tumor size were determined using p-values that were calculated using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off values of CT ratio and tumor size for dividing patients into groups according to the greatest difference in disease-free survival (DFS) were 0.85 (p < 0.001) and 3.0 cm (p < 0.001), respectively. In analysis using Spearman's correlation coefficient, CT ratio (p = 0.007) and tumor size (p = 0.003) were individually associated with the Ki-67 proliferative index. Cox proportional hazard analysis identified that a CT ratio <0.85 (n = 10, p = 0.006) and tumor size ≥3.0 cm (n = 13, p = 0.023) were independent prognostic factors associated with DFS. All patients in the CT ratio ≥0.85 and tumor size <3.0 cm group (n = 23, including seven patients with G2 disease) did not develop recurrence after surgery. On the other hand, 5-year DFS in the CT ratio <0.85 and tumor size ≥3.0 cm group (n = 5, including three patients with G2 disease) was zero.

CONCLUSIONS

PNETs with a CT ratio <0.85 and tumor size ≥3.0 cm should be considered as having a high risk of recurrence after pancreatectomy.

PD-L1 Is a Therapeutic Target of the Bromodomain Inhibitor JQ1 and, Combined with HLA Class I, a Promising Prognostic Biomarker in Neuroblastoma

Purpose: This study sought to evaluate the expression of programmed cell death-ligand-1 (PD-L1) and HLA class I on neuroblastoma cells and programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and lymphocyte activation gene 3 (LAG3) on tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes to better define patient risk stratification and understand whether this tumor may benefit from therapies targeting immune checkpoint molecules.Experimental Design:In situ IHC staining for PD-L1, HLA class I, PD-1, and LAG3 was assessed in 77 neuroblastoma specimens, previously characterized for tumor-infiltrating T-cell density and correlated with clinical outcome. Surface expression of PD-L1 was evaluated by flow cytometry and IHC in neuroblastoma cell lines and tumors genetically and/or pharmacologically inhibited for MYC and MYCN. A dataset of 477 human primary neuroblastomas from GEO and ArrayExpress databases was explored for PD-L1, MYC, and MYCN correlation.Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that the combination of PD-L1 and HLA class I tumor cell density is a prognostic biomarker for predicting overall survival in neuroblastoma patients (P = 0.0448). MYC and MYCN control the expression of PD-L1 in neuroblastoma cells both in vitro and in vivo Consistently, abundance of PD-L1 transcript correlates with MYC expression in primary neuroblastoma.Conclusions: The combination of PD-L1 and HLA class I represents a novel prognostic biomarker for neuroblastoma. Pharmacologic inhibition of MYCN and MYC may be exploited to target PD-L1 and restore an efficient antitumor immunity in high-risk neuroblastoma. Clin Cancer Res; 23(15); 4462-72. ©2017 AACR.

Systematic review of statistically-derived models of immunological response in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

In Sub-Saharan African (SSA) resource limited settings, Cluster of Differentiation 4 (CD4) counts continue to be used for clinical decision making in antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, HIV-infected people often remain with CD4 counts <350 cells/μL even after 5 years of viral load suppression. Ongoing immunological monitoring is necessary. Due to varying statistical modeling methods comparing immune response to ART across different cohorts is difficult. We systematically review such models and detail the similarities, differences and problems.

Methods

‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses’ guidelines were used. Only studies of immune-response after ART initiation from SSA in adults were included. Data was extracted from each study and tabulated. Outcomes were categorized into 3 groups: ‘slope’, ‘survival’, and ‘asymptote’ models. Wordclouds were drawn wherein the frequency of variables occurring in the reviewed models is indicated by their size and color.

Results

69 covariates were identified in the final models of 35 studies. Effect sizes of covariates were not directly quantitatively comparable in view of the combination of differing variables and scale transformation methods across models. Wordclouds enabled the identification of qualitative and semi-quantitative covariate sets for each outcome category. Comparison across categories identified sex, baseline age, baseline log viral load, baseline CD4, ART initiation regimen and ART duration as a minimal consensus set.

Conclusion

Most models were different with respect to covariates included, variable transformations and scales, model assumptions, modelling strategies and reporting methods, even for the same outcomes. To enable comparison across cohorts, statistical models would benefit from the application of more uniform modelling techniques. Historic efforts have produced results that are anecdotal to individual cohorts only. This study was able to define ‘prior’ knowledge in the Bayesian sense. Such information has value for prospective modelling efforts.

Low CCL17 expression associates with unfavorable postoperative prognosis of patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma

Background

Chemokine (C–C motif) ligand 17 (CCL17) is a chemokine mainly produced by myeloid dendritic cells. It is a ligand for CC chemokine receptor 4 (CCR4) and CC chemokine receptor 8 (CCR8). The aim of this study was to investigate prognostic values of CCL17 expression in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC).

Methods

The study included 286 patients with ccRCC. CCL17 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. Prognostic values of CCL17 expression and patients’ clinical outcomes were evaluated.

Results

Kaplan-Meier method showed that low CCL17 expression was associated with worse patient overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) (OS, P = 0.002; RFS, P = 0.007). Low CCL17 expression was an adverse independent risk factor for OS and RFS in multivariate analyses (OS, P = 0.006, P = 0.011 for bootstrap; RFS, P = 0.002, P = 0.025 for bootstrap). We constructed two nomograms incorporating parameters derived from multivariate analyses to predict patients’ OS and RFS (OS, c-index 0.799; RFS, c-index 0.787) and they performed better than existed integrated models.

Conclusion

Low CCL17 expression is a potential independent adverse prognostic biomarker for recurrence and survival of patients with ccRCC after nephrectomy. Established nomograms based on this information could help predict ccRCC patients’ OS and RFS.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-017-3106-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Plasma proteins as prognostic biomarkers in radiotherapy treated head and neck cancer patients

Background

Blood-based protein biomarkers can be a useful tool as pre-treatment prognostic markers, as they can reflect both variations in the tumor microenvironment and the host immune response. We investigated the influence of a panel of plasma proteins for the development of any failure defined as recurrent disease in the T-, N-, or M-site in HNSCC.

Methods

We used a multiplex bead-based approach to analyze 19 proteins in 86 HNSCC patients and 15 healthy controls. We evaluated the associations between the biomarkers, loco-regional failure, failure in the T-, N-, or M-site, overall survival (OS), p16 status, and hypoxia.

Results

In 41 p16 positive oropharynx cancer patients we identified a profile of biomarkers consisting of upregulation of IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, eotaxin, GRO-a, and VEGF and downregulation of VEGFR-1 and VEGFR-2 with a significantly reduced risk of failure (p < 0.01). None of the individual proteins were associated with outcome.

Conclusion

The identified plasma profile potentially reflects an activated immune response in a subgroup of the p16 positive patients.

An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study

As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.

Dry Eye Syndrome After Proton Therapy of Ocular Melanomas

PURPOSE

To investigate whether proton therapy (PT) performs safely in superotemporal melanomas, in terms of risk of dry-eye syndrome (DES).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Tumor location, DES grade, and dose to ocular structures were analyzed in patients undergoing PT (2005-2015) with 52 Gy (prescribed dose, not accounting for biologic effectiveness correction of 1.1). Prognostic factors of DES and severe DES (sDES, grades 2-3) were determined with Cox proportional hazard models. Visual acuity deterioration and enucleation rates were compared by sDES and tumor locations.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 44 months (interquartile range, 18-60 months). Of 853 patients (mean age, 64 years), 30.5% had temporal and 11.4% superotemporal tumors. Five-year incidence of DES and sDES was 23.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.0%-27.7%) and 10.9% (95% CI 8.2%-14.4%), respectively. Multivariable analysis showed a higher risk for sDES in superotemporal (hazard ratio [HR] 5.82, 95% CI 2.72-12.45) and temporal tumors (HR 2.63, 95% CI 1.28-5.42), age ≥70 years (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.09-3.32), distance to optic disk ≥5 mm (HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.52-4.84), ≥35% of retina receiving 12 Gy (HR 2.98, 95% CI 1.54-5.77), and eyelid rim irradiation (HR 2.68, 95% CI 1.49-4.80). The same risk factors were found for DES. Visual acuity deteriorated more in patients with sDES (0.86 ± 1.10 vs 0.64 ± 0.98 logMAR, P=.034) but not between superotemporal/temporal and other locations (P=.890). Enucleation rates were independent of sDES (P=.707) and tumor locations (P=.729).

CONCLUSIONS

Severe DES was more frequent in superotemporal/temporal melanomas. Incidence of vision deterioration and enucleation was no higher in patients with superotemporal melanoma than in patients with tumors in other locations. Tumor location should not contraindicate PT.

Prognostic value of CC-chemokine receptor seven expression in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitor

Background

CC-chemokine receptor seven (CCR7), a G-protein coupled receptor normally facilitating immune cells lymphatic homing, has recently been identified on several cancer cells in promoting invasion and lymphatic specific metastasis by mimicking normal leukocytes. As tyrosine kinase inhibitors for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) mostly emphasized on vascular inhibition, whether the CCR7 expressing tumor cells with potential lymphatic invasion function could have an impact on mRCC patient’s drug response and survival, was unknown.

Methods

In this study, in a clinical aspect, we retrospectively investigated the prognostic and predictive impact of tumoral CCR7 expression in 110 mRCC patients treated with sunitinib and sorafenib, and its correlation with pre- or post-administration lymphatic involvement. Immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays were conducted for CCR7 expression evaluation.

Results

Kaplan-Meier and univariate analyses suggested high tumoral CCR7 expression as an adverse prognosticator for mRCC patients’ overall survival (OS), which was further confirmed in the multivariate analyses (P = 0.002, P = 0.003 for bootstrap). This molecule could be combined with Heng’s risk model for better patient OS prediction. High tumoral CCR7 expression was also an independent dismal predictor for patients’ progression free survival (PFS) (P = 0.010, P = 0.013 for bootstrap), and correlated with poorer best drug response. Moreover, a possible correlation of CCR7 high expression and patients’ baseline and post-administration lymph node metastasis was found.

Conclusions

High tumoral CCR7 expression correlated with potential lymphatic involvement and poor prognosis of mRCC patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Further external validations and basic researches were needed to confirm these results.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-017-3065-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Exploring the role of pain as an early predictor of category 2 pressure ulcers: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To explore pressure area related pain as a predictor of category ≥2 pressure ulcer (PU) development.

DESIGN

Multicentre prospective cohort study.

SETTING

UK hospital and community settings.

PARTICIPANTS INCLUSION

Consenting acutely ill patients aged ≥18 years, defined as high risk (Braden bedfast/chairfast AND completely immobile/very limited mobility; pressure area related pain or; category 1 PU).

EXCLUSION

Patients too unwell, unable to report pain, 2 or more category ≥2 PUs.

FOLLOW-UP

Twice weekly for 30 days.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Development and time to development of one or more category ≥2 PUs.

RESULTS

Of 3819 screened, 1266 were eligible, 634 patients were recruited, 32 lost to follow-up, providing a 602 analysis population. 152 (25.2%) developed one or more category ≥2 PUs. 464 (77.1%) patients reported pressure area related pain on a healthy, altered or category 1 skin site of whom 130 (28.0%) developed a category ≥2 PU compared with 22 (15.9%) of those without pain. Full stepwise variable selection was used throughout the analyses. (1) Multivariable logistic regression model to assess 9 a priori factors: presence of category 1 PU (OR=3.25, 95% CI (2.17 to 4.86), p<0.0001), alterations to intact skin (OR=1.98, 95% CI (1.30 to 3.00), p=0.0014), pressure area related pain (OR=1.56, 95% CI (0.93 to 2.63), p=0.0931). (2) Multivariable logistic regression model to account for overdispersion: presence of category 1 PU (OR=3.20, 95% CI (2.11 to 4.85), p<0.0001), alterations to intact skin (OR=1.90, 95% CI (1.24 to 2.91), p=0.0032), pressure area related pain (OR=1.85, 95% CI (1.07 to 3.20), p=0.0271), pre-existing category 2 PU (OR=2.09, 95% CI (1.35 to 3.23), p=0.0009), presence of chronic wound (OR=1.66, 95% CI (1.06 to 2.62), p=0.0277), Braden activity (p=0.0476). (3) Accelerated failure time model: presence of category 1 PU (AF=2.32, 95% CI (1.73 to 3.12), p<0.0001), pressure area related pain (AF=2.28, 95% CI (1.59 to 3.27), p<0.0001). (4) 2-level random-intercept logistic regression model: skin status which comprised 2 levels (versus healthy skin); alterations to intact skin (OR=4.65, 95% CI (3.01 to 7.18), p<0.0001), presence of category 1 PU (OR=17.30, 95% CI (11.09 to 27.00), p<0.0001) and pressure area related pain (OR=2.25, 95% CI (1.53 to 3.29), p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to assess pain as a predictor of category ≥2 PU development. In all 4 models, pain emerged as a risk factor associated with an increased probability of category ≥2 PU development.

p53, Cyclin D1, p21 (WAF1) and Ki-67 (MIB1) Expression at Invasive Tumour Fronts of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinomas and Development of Local Recurrence

BACKGROUND

Expression of p53, cyclin D1, p21 (WAF1) and Ki-67 (MIB1) was evaluated in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) to test whether levels of these markers at invasive tumour fronts (ITFs) could predict the development of local recurrence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Archived paraffin-embedded specimens from 51 patients with T1/T2 tumours were stained immunohistochemically and analysed quantitatively. Local recurrence-free survival was tested with Kaplan-Meier survival plots (log-rank test) using median values to define low and high expression groups and with a Cox's proportional hazards model in which the expression scores were entered as continuous variables.

RESULTS

The assessment of expression of all markers was highly reliable, univariate analysis showing that patients with clear surgical margins, with low cyclin D1 and high p21 expression at the ITF had the best local recurrence-free survival. Multivariate analysis showed that these three parameters were independent prognostic factors but that neither p53 nor MIB1 expression were of prognostic value.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of p53, cyclin D1, p21 (WAF1), and Ki-67 (MIB1) at the ITF could help to predict local recurrence in early stage oral squamous cell carcinoma cases.

Graphical Presentation of Patient-Treatment Interaction Elucidated by Continuous Biomarkers. Current Practice and Scope for Improvement

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers providing evidence for patient-treatment interaction are key in the development and practice of personalized medicine. Knowledge that a patient with a specific feature - as demonstrated through a biomarker - would have an advantage under a given treatment vs. a competing treatment can aid immensely in medical decision-making. Statistical strategies to establish evidence of continuous biomarkers are complex and their formal results are thus not easy to communicate. Good graphical representations would help to translate such findings for use in the clinical community. Although general guidelines on how to present figures in clinical reports are available, there remains little guidance for figures elucidating the role of continuous biomarkers in patient-treatment interaction (CBPTI).

OBJECTIVES

To combat the current lack of comprehensive reviews or adequate guides on graphical presentation within this topic, our study proposes presentation principles for CBPTI plots. In order to understand current practice, we review the development of CBPTI methodology and how CBPTI plots are currently used in clinical research.

METHODS

The quality of a CBPTI plot is determined by how well the presentation provides key information for clinical decision-making. Several criteria for a good CBPTI plot are proposed, including general principles of visual display, use of units presenting absolute outcome measures, appropriate quantification of statistical uncertainty, correct display of benchmarks, and informative content for answering clinical questions especially on the quantitative advantage for an individual patient with regard to a specific treatment. We examined the development of CBPTI methodology from the years 2000 - 2014, and reviewed how CBPTI plots were currently used in clinical research in six major clinical journals from 2013 - 2014 using the principle of theoretical saturation. Each CBPTI plot found was assessed for appropriateness of its presentation and clinical utility.

RESULTS

In our review, a total of seven methodological papers and five clinical reports used CBPTI plots which we categorized into four types: those that distinguish the outcome effect for each treatment group; those that show the outcome differences between treatment groups (by either partitioning all individuals into subpopulations or modelling the functional form of the interaction); those that evaluate the proportion of population impact of the biomarker; and those that show the classification accuracy of the biomarker. The current practice of utilizing CBPTI plots in clinical reports suffers from methodological shortcomings: the lack of presentation of statistical uncertainty, the outcome measure scaled by relative unit instead of absolute unit, incorrect use of benchmarks, and being non-informative in answering clinical questions.

CONCLUSIONS

There is considerable scope for improvement in the graphical representation of CBPTI in clinical reports. The current challenge is to develop instruments for high-quality graphical plots which not only convey quantitative concepts to readers with limited statistical knowledge, but also facilitate medical decision-making.

Tertiary lymphoid structures, drivers of the anti-tumor responses in human cancers

The characterization of the microenvironment of human tumors led to the description of tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS) characterized by mature dendritic cells in a T-cell zone adjacent to B-cell follicle including a germinal center. TLS represent sites of lymphoid neogenesis that develop in most solid cancers. Analysis of the current literature shows that the TLS presence is associated with a favorable clinical outcome for cancer patients, regardless of the approach used to quantify TLS and the stage of the disease. Using several approaches that combine immunohistochemistry, gene expression assays, and flow cytometry on large series of lung tumors, our work demonstrated that TLS are important sites for the initiation and/or maintenance of the local and systemic T- and B-cell responses against tumors. Surrounded by high endothelial venules, they represent a privileged area for the recruitment of lymphocytes into tumors and generation of central-memory T and B cells that circulate and limit cancer progression. TLS can be considered as a novel biomarker to stratify the overall survival risk of untreated cancer patients and as a marker of efficient immunotherapies. The induction and manipulation of cancer-associated TLS using drug agonists and/or biotherapies should open new avenues to treat cancer patients.