Defining secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

Do disease-modifying drugs (DMD) have a positive impact on the occurrence of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis? Comment

Very recent data from cohorts, such as that of the French Observatory of Multiple Sclerosis (OFSEP) and the MSBase cohort, are the subject of new statistical analyses using propensity scores that enable the matching of relapses frequency, EDSS, age, and sex ratio in patient populations for comparisons with each other, which reduces selection biases. The first data from these cohorts revealed a decline in transition to secondary progressive MS with the most effective disease-modifying drugs currently available, especially when these drugs were used early in the disease. However, these studies remain limited regarding the number of patients, the duration of follow-up, the use of imperfect methodologies, and the level of evidence remains low. The Gothenburg cohort in Sweden, which has been followed since the 1950s, found that 14% of benign non-progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) never evolved to secondary progression after more than 45 years of evolution. EDSS 7 was reached after 48 years of disease (median), and 50% evolved to secondary progressive MS after 15 years (consistent with data from the historic London, Ontario cohort). These data demonstrate that most people living with MS evolve without treatment to a significant long-term disability and that this evolution is closely linked to secondary progression (more than the relapse frequency). Benign forms appear as MS that never passes into secondary progressive MS. Recent data demonstrate that the delay until transition to secondary progression (more than 30 years in the MSBase cohort) and the delay in reaching EDSS 6 decreased since the introduction of disease-modifying drugs 20 years ago. However, randomized placebo-controlled trials do not last more than 2 or 3 years, and many biases may be involved in long-term follow-up studies: worsening patients who are lost to follow-up ("informative censoring" bias: only good responders to treatment remain primarily under the same long-term treatment and are followed); changes in the populations in the most recent studies with a lower rate of relapse and lower progression of disability at the beginning of the disease prior to initiating treatments; and environmental changes that remain largely misunderstood and may contribute to a natural evolution towards less severe disease.

Considering patient clinical history impacts performance of machine learning models in predicting course of multiple sclerosis

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) progresses at an unpredictable rate, but predictions on the disease course in each patient would be extremely useful to tailor therapy to the individual needs. We explore different machine learning (ML) approaches to predict whether a patient will shift from the initial Relapsing-Remitting (RR) to the Secondary Progressive (SP) form of the disease, using only "real world" data available in clinical routine. The clinical records of 1624 outpatients (207 in the SP phase) attending the MS service of Sant'Andrea hospital, Rome, Italy, were used. Predictions at 180, 360 or 720 days from the last visit were obtained considering either the data of the last available visit (Visit-Oriented setting), comparing four classical ML methods (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbours and AdaBoost) or the whole clinical history of each patient (History-Oriented setting), using a Recurrent Neural Network model, specifically designed for historical data. Missing values were handled by removing either all clinical records presenting at least one missing parameter (Feature-saving approach) or the 3 clinical parameters which contained missing values (Record-saving approach). The performances of the classifiers were rated using common indicators, such as Recall (or Sensitivity) and Precision (or Positive predictive value). In the visit-oriented setting, the Record-saving approach yielded Recall values from 70% to 100%, but low Precision (5% to 10%), which however increased to 50% when considering only predictions for which the model returned a probability above a given "confidence threshold". For the History-oriented setting, both indicators increased as prediction time lengthened, reaching values of 67% (Recall) and 42% (Precision) at 720 days. We show how "real world" data can be effectively used to forecast the evolution of MS, leading to high Recall values and propose innovative approaches to improve Precision towards clinically useful values.

The impact of multiple sclerosis relapses on worsening over the long term; insights in the treatment era

Relapses of multiple sclerosis (MS) are the clinical manifestations of inflammatory events involving eloquent anatomical structures within the central nervous system. Relapses are associated with worsening disability of MS patients in both early and later disease, even after progressive features are seen. The impact of relapses on the long-term course of the disease is now being realized as a generation of treated patients is now elderly. New MRI brain lesions can be viewed as a radiologic manifestation of acute inflammation and are associated with similar prognostic value. The complex relationship between clinical relapse activity and later slow progressive worsening remains incompletely understood, however, there is increasing biological plausibility for a causative association between relapse activity and lifelong disability.

T Helper Cells: The Modulators of Inflammation in Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease characterized by the progressive loss of axonal myelin in several areas of the central nervous system (CNS) that is responsible for clinical symptoms such as muscle spasms, optic neuritis, and paralysis. The progress made in more than one decade of research in animal models of MS for clarifying the pathophysiology of MS disease validated the concept that MS is an autoimmune inflammatory disorder caused by the recruitment in the CNS of self-reactive lymphocytes, mainly CD4⁺ T cells. Indeed, high levels of T helper (Th) cells and related cytokines and chemokines have been found in CNS lesions and in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of MS patients, thus contributing to the breakdown of the blood-brain barrier (BBB), the activation of resident astrocytes and microglia, and finally the outcome of neuroinflammation. To date, several types of Th cells have been discovered and designated according to the secreted lineage-defining cytokines. Interestingly, Th1, Th17, Th1-like Th17, Th9, and Th22 have been associated with MS. In this review, we discuss the role and interplay of different Th cell subpopulations and their lineage-defining cytokines in modulating the inflammatory responses in MS and the approved as well as the novel therapeutic approaches targeting T lymphocytes in the treatment of the disease.

A Physician-Completed Digital Tool for Evaluating Disease Progression (Multiple Sclerosis Progression Discussion Tool): Validation Study

Background

Defining the transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) can be challenging and delayed. A digital tool (MSProDiscuss) was developed to facilitate physician-patient discussion in evaluating early, subtle signs of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease progression representing this transition.

Objective

This study aimed to determine cut-off values and corresponding sensitivity and specificity for predefined scoring algorithms, with or without including Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, to differentiate between RRMS and SPMS patients and to evaluate psychometric properties.

Methods

Experienced neurologists completed the tool for patients with confirmed RRMS or SPMS and those suspected to be transitioning to SPMS. In addition to age and EDSS score, each patient’s current disease status (disease activity, symptoms, and its impacts on daily life) was collected while completing the draft tool. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves determined optimal cut-off values (sensitivity and specificity) for the classification of RRMS and SPMS.

Results

Twenty neurologists completed the draft tool for 198 patients. Mean scores for patients with RRMS (n=89), transitioning to SPMS (n=47), and SPMS (n=62) were 38.1 (SD 12.5), 55.2 (SD 11.1), and 69.6 (SD 12.0), respectively (P<.001, each between-groups comparison). Area under the ROC curve (AUC) including and excluding EDSS were for RRMS (including) AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.87-0.95, RRMS (excluding) AUC 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.93, SPMS (including) AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.95, and SPMS (excluding) AUC 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.91. In the algorithm with EDSS, the optimal cut-off values were ≤51.6 for RRMS patients (sensitivity=0.83; specificity=0.82) and ≥58.9 for SPMS patients (sensitivity=0.82; specificity=0.84). The optimal cut-offs without EDSS were ≤46.3 and ≥57.8 and resulted in similar high sensitivity and specificity (0.76-0.86). The draft tool showed excellent interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient=.95).

Conclusions

The MSProDiscuss tool differentiated RRMS patients from SPMS patients with high sensitivity and specificity. In clinical practice, it may be a useful tool to evaluate early, subtle signs of MS disease progression indicating the evolution of RRMS to SPMS. MSProDiscuss will help assess the current level of progression in an individual patient and facilitate a more informed physician-patient discussion.

Th17 cells increase in RRMS as well as in SPMS, whereas various other phenotypes of Th17 increase in RRMS only

Background

The nature and extent of inflammation seen in multiple sclerosis (MS) varies throughout the course of the disease. Changes seen in CD4+ T-helper cells in relapsing–remitting (RR) MS and secondary progressive (SP) MS might differ qualitatively and/or quantitatively.

Objective

The objective of this paper is to study the frequencies of all major CD4+ T-helper subtypes – Th17, Th22 and Th1 lineage cells – in relapse, remission and secondary progression alongside CCR6 status, a chemokine receptor involved in migration of these cells into the central nervous system.

Methods

We compared 100 patients (50 RRMS and 50 SPMS) and 50 healthy volunteers and performed flow cytometric analysis of lymphocytes in blood samples.

Results

We demonstrated raised frequencies of various cell types along the Th17 axis; Th17, Th17.1 (IL-17+ interferon gamma+) and dual IL-17+ IL-22+ cells in RRMS. Th22 and CCR6+ Th1 cells (nonclassical Th1) were also increased in RRMS. All these cells were CCR6+. Only Th17 frequencies were elevated in SPMS.

Conclusions

Increased frequencies of Th17 cells are implicated both in RRMS and SPMS. The CCR6 pathway includes Th17, Th22 and Th1 nonclassical cells, of which Th22 and Th1 cells represent the greatest subsets in MS.

To treat or not to treat: Sequential individualized treatment evaluation in relapsing multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

The frequency and long-term prognosis of relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) never receiving disease-modifying treatment (DMT) is unclear.

METHODS

We included 1186 RMS patients with a mean of 17.4 years follow-up and divided them into patients treated with any DMT (DMT) and patients untreated by shared (USD) or patient-autonomous decision (UAD).

RESULTS

The USD group displayed features, which significantly differed from the two other groups: higher age at onset, mainly sensory onset symptoms, complete remission of onset symptoms, less T2 and contrast-enhancing T1 lesions on initial brain MRI. In a multivariate cox regression, USD was associated with lower risk for secondary progression (SPMS) conversion (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.97, p = 0.011) compared to DMT, while UAD was associated with an increased SPMS conversion risk only in the "McDonald era" (HR 1.19, CI 1.02-1.58, p = 0.028).

CONCLUSION

Apart from the doubtless substantial improvement of the overall prognosis of RMS by DMT, it seems likely that not every patient necessarily needs immediate or even "hard and early" treatment. A "watchful waiting" approach with continuous clinical evaluation might be instead a viable option in RMS patients with favorable prognostic features at onset.

Diagnosis and management of secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis: time for change

Identifying the transition of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) to the secondary-progressive MS form remains a clinical challenge due to the gradual nature of the transition, superimposed relapses, the heterogeneous course of disease among patients and the absence of validated biomarkers and diagnostic tools. The uncertainty associated with the transition makes clinical care challenging for both patients and physicians. The emergence of new disease-modifying treatments for progressive MS and the increasing emphasis of nonpharmacological strategies mark a new era in the treatment of progressive MS. This article summarizes challenges in diagnosis and management, discusses novel treatment strategies and highlights the importance of establishing a clear diagnosis and instituting an interdisciplinary management plan in the care of patients with progressive MS.

A mixed methods approach towards understanding key disease characteristics associated with the progression from RRMS to SPMS: Physicians' and patients' views

OBJECTIVES

The transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) evolves over time and it can be challenging for physicians to identify progression early. Typically, SPMS is diagnosed retrospectively with a significant delay, based on a history of gradual worsening, independent of relapses, following an initial relapsing-remitting disease course. As such, SPMS is often associated with a considerable period of diagnostic uncertainty. This study aimed to explore and characterize key symptoms and impacts associated with transitioning from RRMS to SPMS and inform the content for a tool to support evaluation of early subtle signs suggestive of progressive disease.

METHODS

The qualitative study involved 60-min, face-to-face, concept elicitation (CE) interviews with 32 patients with MS (US = 16 and Germany = 16); and 30-min, telephone, CE interviews with 16 neurologists (US = 8 and Germany = 8). Multivariate analysis on data from a real-world observational study of 3294 MS patients assessed the differences between early-RRMS and early-SPMS, and identified factors that were significant drivers of this difference. These studies informed selection of the key variables to be included in a pilot tool. Sixteen physicians used the pilot tool, presented as a paper questionnaire, with a sample of patients whom they suspected were progressing to SPMS (n ≥ 5). Following this, the physicians participated in a 30-min cognitive debriefing (CD) interview to evaluate the relevance and usefulness of the tool. Qualitative analysis of all anonymized, verbatim transcripts was performed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Patients and physicians reported signs that indicated progression to SPMS including gradual worsening of symptoms, lack of clear recovery, increased severity and presence of new symptoms. No specific symptoms definitively indicated progression to SPMS, however a number of potential symptoms associated with progression were identified by SPMS patients and physicians, including worsening ambulation, cognition, balance, muscle weakness, visual symptoms, bladder symptoms and fatigue. Quality of life domains reported to be more severely impacted in SPMS than MS in general included: physical activity, work, daily activities, emotional and social functioning. Multivariate analysis of the observational study data identified several variables strongly associated with progression to SPMS including, requirement of assistance in daily living, presence of motor symptoms, presence of ataxia/coordination symptoms, and unemployment. Physicians reported that items included in the tool were easy to understand and relevant. Physicians also reported that there is an unmet need for a tool to help identify signs of SPMS progression and so the tool would be useful in clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

This was the first stage of development of a novel, validated, physician-completed tool to support physician-patient interactions in evaluating signs indicative of disease progression to SPMS. Qualitative and quantitative methods (involving physician and patients) were used to determine tool content. The usefulness and unmet need for such a tool in clinical practice was confirmed via CD interviews with physicians. Further work is now warranted to develop a scoring algorithm and validate the tool so that it can be reliably implemented in clinical practice.

Machine learning in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: an improved predictive model for short-term disability progression

Background

Enhanced prediction of progression in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) could improve clinical trial design. Machine learning (ML) algorithms are methods for training predictive models with minimal human intervention.

Objective

To evaluate individual and ensemble model performance built using decision tree (DT)-based algorithms compared to logistic regression (LR) and support vector machines (SVMs) for predicting SPMS disability progression.

Methods

SPMS participants (n = 485) enrolled in a 2-year placebo-controlled (negative) trial assessing the efficacy of MBP8298 were classified as progressors if a 6-month sustained increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) (≥1.0 or ≥0.5 for a baseline of ≤5.5 or ≥6.0 respectively) was observed. Variables included EDSS, Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite component scores, T2 lesion volume, brain parenchymal fraction, disease duration, age, and sex. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was the primary outcome for model evaluation.

Results

Three DT-based models had greater AUCs (61.8%, 60.7%, and 60.2%) than independent and ensemble SVM (52.4% and 51.0%) and LR (49.5% and 51.1%).

Conclusion

SPMS disability progression was best predicted by non-parametric ML. If confirmed, ML could select those with highest progression risk for inclusion in SPMS trial cohorts and reduce the number of low-risk individuals exposed to experimental therapies.

Atrophied Brain T2 Lesion Volume at MRI Is Associated with Disability Progression and Conversion to Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Background Atrophied T2 lesion volume at MRI is an imaging measure that reflects the replacement of T2 lesions by cerebrospinal fluid spaces in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Purpose To investigate the association of atrophied T2 lesion volume and development of disability progression (DP) and conversion to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). Materials and Methods This retrospective study included 1612 participants recruited from 2006 to 2016 and followed up for 5 years with clinical and MRI examinations. Accumulation of T2 lesion volume, atrophied T2 lesion volume, percentage brain volume change (PBVC), and percentage ventricular volume change (PVVC) were measured. Disability progression and secondary progressive conversion were defined by using standardized guidelines. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) adjusted for age and Cox regression adjusted for age and sex were used to compare study groups and explore associations between MRI and clinical outcomes. Results A total of 1314 patients with MS (1006 women; mean age, 46 years ± 11 [standard deviation]) and 124 patients with clinically isolated syndrome (100 women; mean age, 39 years ± 11) along with 147 healthy control subjects (97 women; mean age, 42 years ± 13) were evaluated. A total of 336 of 1314 (23%) patients developed DP, and in 67 of 1213 (5.5%) the disease converted from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) to SPMS. Patients with conversion to DP had higher atrophied T2 lesion volume (+34.4 mm3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.2 mm3, 51.5 mm3; d = 0.27; P < .001) and PBVC (-0.21%; 95% CI: -0.36%, -0.05%; d = 0.19; P = .042) but not PVVC (0.36%; 95% CI: -0.93%, 1.65%; d = 0.04; P = .89) or T2 lesion volume change (-64.5 mm3; 95% CI: -315.2 mm3, 186.3 mm3; d = 0.03; P = .67) when compared with DP nonconverters. ANCOVA showed that atrophied T2 lesion volume was associated with conversion from CIS or RRMS to SPMS (+26.4 mm3; 95% CI: 4.2 mm3, 56.9 mm3; d = 0.23; P = .002) but not PBVC (-0.14%; 95% CI: -0.46%, 0.18%; d = 0.11; P = .66), PVVC (+0.18%; 95% CI: -2.49%, 2.72%; d = 0.01; P = .75), or T2 lesion volume change (-46.4 mm3; 95% CI: -460.8 mm3, 367.9 mm3; d = 0.03; P = .93). At Cox regression analysis, only atrophied T2 lesion volume was associated with the DP (hazard ratio, 1.23; P < .001) and conversion to SPMS (hazard ratio, 1.16; P = .008). Conclusion Atrophied brain T2 lesion volume is a robust MRI marker of MS disability progression and conversion into a secondary progressive disease course. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Chiang in this issue.

Clinical and MRI efficacy of sc IFN β-1a tiw in patients with relapsing MS appearing to transition to secondary progressive MS: post hoc analyses of PRISMS and SPECTRIMS

This study evaluated efficacy of subcutaneous (sc) interferon beta-1a (IFN β-1a) 44 µg 3 × weekly (tiw) in patients appearing to transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). The PRISMS study included 560 patients with RRMS (EDSS 0-5.0; ≥ 2 relapses in previous 2 years), and the SPECTRIMS study included 618 patients with SPMS (EDSS 3.0-6.5 and ≥ 1-point increase in previous 2 years [≥ 0.5 point if 6.0-6.5]) randomly assigned to sc IFN β-1a 44 or 22 µg or placebo for 2-3 years, respectively. These post hoc analyses examined five subgroups of MS patients with EDSS 4.0-6.0: PRISMS (n = 59), PRISMS/SPECTRIMS (n = 335), PRISMS/SPECTRIMS with baseline disease activity (n = 195; patients with either ≥ 1 relapse within 2 years before baseline or ≥ 1 gadolinium-enhancing lesion at baseline), PRISMS/SPECTRIMS without baseline disease activity (n = 140), and PRISMS/SPECTRIMS with disease activity during the study (n = 202). In the PRISMS and PRISMS/SPECTRIMS subgroups, sc IFN β-1a delayed disability progression, although no significant effect was observed in PRISMS/SPECTRIMS subgroups with activity at baseline or activity during the study (regardless of baseline activity). In the PRISMS/SPECTRIMS subgroup, over year 1 (0-1) and 2 (0-2), sc IFN β-1a 44 µg tiw significantly reduced annualized relapse rate (p ≤ 0.001), and relapse risk (p < 0.05) versus placebo. Similar results were seen for the PRISMS/SPECTRIMS with baseline disease activity subgroup. Subcutaneous IFN β-1a reduced T2 burden of disease and active T2 lesions in the PRISMS/SPECTRIMS subgroups overall, with and without baseline activity. In conclusion, these post hoc analyses indicate that effects of sc IFN β-1a 44 µg tiw on clinical/MRI endpoints are preserved in a patient subgroup appearing to transition between RRMS and SPMS.

When an octopus has MS: Application of neurophysiology and immunology of octopuses for multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated disease which can cause different symptoms due to the involvement of different regions of the central nervous system (CNS). Although this disease is characterized by the demyelination process, the most important feature of the disease is its degenerative nature. This nature is clinically manifested as progressive symptoms, especially in patients' walking, which can even lead to complete debilitation. Therefore, finding a treatment to prevent the degenerative processes is one of the most important goals in MS studies. To better understand the process and the effect of drugs, scientists use animal models which mostly consisting of mouse, rat, and monkey. In evolutionary terms, octopuses belong to the invertebrates which have many substantial differences with vertebrates. One of these differences is related to the nervous system of these organisms, which is divided into central and peripheral parts. The difference lies in the fact that the main volume of this system expands in the limbs of these organisms instead of their brain. This offers a kind of freedom of action and processing strength in the octopus limbs. Also, the brain of these organisms follows a non-somatotopic model. Although the complex actions of this organism are stimulated by the brain, in contrast to the human brain, this activity is not related to a specific region of the brain; rather the entire brain area of the octopus is activated during a process. Indeed, the brain mapping or the topological perception of a particular action, such as moving the limbs, reflects itself in how that activity is distributed in the octopus brain neurons. Accordingly, various actions are known with varying degrees of activity of neurons in the brain of octopus. Another important feature of octopuses is their ability to regenerate defective tissues including the central and peripheral nervous system. These characteristics raise the question of what features can an octopus show when it is used as an organism to create experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). Can the immune system damage of the octopus brain cause a regeneration process? Will the autonomy of the organs reduce the severity of the symptoms? This article seeks to provide evidence to prove that use of octopuses as laboratory samples for generation of EAE may open up new approaches for researchers to better approach MS.

Conversion to Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: Patient Awareness and Needs. Results From an Online Survey in Italy and Germany

Background: Few studies have investigated the experiences of patients around the conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). ManTra is a mixed-method, co-production research project conducted in Italy and Germany to develop an intervention for newly-diagnosed SPMS patients. In previous project actions, we identified the needs and experiences of patients converting to SPMS via literature review and qualitative research which involved key stakeholders. Aims: The online patient survey aimed to assess, on a larger and independent sample of recently-diagnosed SPMS patients: (a) the characteristics associated to patient awareness of SPMS conversion; (b) the experience of conversion; (c) importance and prioritization of the needs previously identified. Methods: Participants were consenting adults with SPMS since ≤5 years. The survey consisted of three sections: on general and clinical characteristics; on experience of SPMS diagnosis disclosure (aware participants only); and on importance and prioritization of 33 pre-specified needs. Results: Of 215 participants, those aware of their SPMS diagnosis were 57% in Italy vs. 77% in Germany (p = 0.004). In both countries, over 80% of aware participants received a SPMS diagnosis from the neurologist; satisfaction with SPMS disclosure was moderate to high. Nevertheless, 28-35% obtained second opinions, and 48-56% reported they did not receive any information on SPMS. Participants actively seeking further information were 63% in Germany vs. 31% in Italy (p < 0.001). Variables independently associated to patient awareness were geographic area (odds ratio, OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.13-0.78 for Central Italy; OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08-0.58 for Southern Italy [vs. Germany]) and activity limitations (OR 7.80, 95% CI 1.47-41.37 for dependent vs. autonomous patients). All pre-specified needs were scored a lot or extremely important, and two prioritized needs were shared by Italian and German patients: "physiotherapy" and "active patient care involvement." The other two differed across countries: "an individualized health care plan" and "information on social rights and policies" in Italy, and "psychological support" and "cognitive rehabilitation" in Germany. Conclusions: Around 40% of SPMS patients were not aware of their disease form indicating a need to improve patient-physician communication. Physiotherapy and active patient care involvement were prioritized in both countries.

Additive Effect of Spinal Cord Volume, Diffuse and Focal Cord Pathology on Disability in Multiple Sclerosis

Introduction: Spinal cord (SC) pathology is strongly associated with disability in multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to evaluate the association between focal and diffuse SC abnormalities and spinal cord volume and to assess their contribution to physical disability in MS patients. Methods: This large sample-size cross-sectional study investigated 1,249 patients with heterogeneous MS phenotypes. Upper cervical-cord cross-sectional area (MUCCA) was calculated on an axial 3D-T2w-FatSat sequence acquired at 3T using a novel semiautomatic edge-finding tool. SC images were scored for the presence of sharply demarcated hyperintense areas (focal lesions) and homogenously increased signal intensity (diffuse changes). Patients were dichotomized according EDSS in groups with mild (EDSS up to 3.0) and moderate (EDSS ≥ 3.5) physical disability. Analysis of covariance was used to identify factors associated with dichotomized MUCCA. In binary logistic regression, the SC imaging parameters were entered in blocks to assess their individual contribution to risk of moderate disability. In order to assess the risk of combined SC damage in terms of atrophy and lesional pathology on disability, secondary analysis was carried out where patients were divided into four categories (SC phenotypes) according to median dichotomized MUCCA and presence/absence of focal and/or diffuse changes. Results: MUCCA was strongly associated with total intracranial volume, followed by presence of diffuse SC pathology, and disease duration. Compared to the reference group (normally appearing SC, MUCCA>median), patients with the most severe SC changes (SC affected with focal and/or diffuse lesions, MUCCA Collapse

Key Words

• diffuse abnormalities
• focal lesions
• magnetic resonance imaging
• spinal cord
• spinal cord reserve

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Affiliation(s)

Michaela Andelova Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Tomas Uher Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Jan Krasensky Department of Radiology, Charles University in Prague, 1st Faculty of Medicine and General University Hospital, Prague, Czechia
Lukas Sobisek Endowment Fund IMPULS, Prague, Czechia
Eliska Kusova Department of Radiology, Charles University in Prague, 1st Faculty of Medicine and General University Hospital, Prague, Czechia
Barbora Srpova Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Karolina Vodehnalova Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Lucie Friedova Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Jiri Motyl Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Jana Lizrova Preiningerova Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Eva Kubala Havrdova Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Dana Horakova Department of Neurology, First Faculty of Medicine, Center of Clinical Neuroscience, Charles University and General University Hospital in Prague, Prague, Czechia
Manuela Vaneckova Department of Radiology, Charles University in Prague, 1st Faculty of Medicine and General University Hospital, Prague, Czechia

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A focus on secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS): challenges in diagnosis and definition

Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is the second most common form of multiple sclerosis (MS). One in two relapse remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients will develop SPMS within 15 years and up to two-thirds after 30 years, leading to a progressive decrease of neurological function and limitation of daily activities. Nevertheless, the SPMS diagnosis is often established retrospectively and delayed up to 3 years due to several patient- and clinician-related factors. Definitive clinical diagnostic criteria are lacking and research is currently ongoing to identify imaging and biochemical biomarkers. As new therapies are introduced, early SPMS diagnosis may represent a window of opportunity for intervention. New approaches, endpoints or technologies could help physicians establishing a diagnosis. Here, we review SPMS in relation to its diagnostic and definition challenges and current screening techniques and tools.

Changes in temporal features of speech in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) - case studies

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease which, in addition to affecting motor and cognitive functions, may involve language disorders. Despite the importance of speech and language disorders in the quality of life of patients, there are only a few studies about language and speech production difficulties in MS. The aim of this research is to describe the limitation patterns of speech and temporal characteristics of the suprasegmental level in two SPMS cases related to various types of spontaneous speech tasks. We assumed the change of the cognitive load has a greater effect on spontaneous speech in MS patients than in controls. Two SPMS patients, and two sex-, age- and education matched healthy controls were studied. We applied verbal fluency tests (phonemic, episodic, semantic, verb), digit span test, non-word repetition test, Corsi Block Tapping Test, Stroop Colour and Word Test, and Trail Making Test. Token Test was used to measure speech comprehension. The four speech tasks required relatively different degrees of cognitive effort: (a) spontaneous narrative about own life; (b) event description; (c) picture description; (d) narrative recall. Our results show that there are differences between MS patients and controls: MS patients produced slower speech and articulation rate, and they had more and longer pauses in every speech task. Speech tasks and the degree of the cognitive load had a greater effect on MS patients than on control speakers.

Two Sides to Every Story: Perspectives from Four Patients and a Healthcare Professional on Multiple Sclerosis Disease Progression

Abstract

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic progressive disease and many patients transition from an initial relapsing–remitting course to a secondary progressive pattern. Accurate classification of disease status is critical to ensure that patients are treated appropriately and kept informed of their prognosis. Consensus terms defining the different forms of MS are available but were developed primarily for healthcare professionals (HCPs) and may be of limited value to patients. This article provides direct insights from four patients with MS, at different points in their disease trajectory, regarding their understanding of, and attitudes toward, MS progression. We also examine the utility of the current classification systems from the perspectives of patients and HCPs. Responses collected during in-depth, structured interviews and questionnaires portrayed the difficulties patients face accepting their MS diagnosis and treatment, revealed how understanding of the term “disease progression” varies considerably, and highlighted the challenges surrounding the period of transition to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). The terms describing different MS types were considered confusing and can make patients feel “compartmentalized” or “labeled”. Patients also struggled to relate these terms to their reality of living with MS, were reluctant to discuss progression with their HCPs, and feared being diagnosed with SPMS owing to concerns about treatment access. These insights highlight the need to develop patient-friendly language to describe MS progression; it may also be preferable for HCPs to describe MS as a disease spectrum in discussions with their patients.

Funding

Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation.

Plain Language Summary

Plain language summary available for this article.

Short-term prediction of secondary progression in a sliding window: A test of a predicting algorithm in a validation cohort

Introduction

The Multiple Sclerosis Prediction Score (MSPS, www.msprediction.com) estimates, for any month during the course of relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), the individual risk of transition to secondary progression (SP) during the following year.

Objective

Internal verification of the MSPS algorithm in a derivation cohort, the Gothenburg Incidence Cohort (GIC, n =  144) and external verification in the Uppsala MS cohort (UMS, n = 145).

Methods

Starting from their second relapse, patients were included and followed for 25 years. A matrix of MSPS values was created. From this matrix, a goodness-of-fit test and suitable diagnostic plots were derived to compare MSPS-calculated and observed outcomes (i.e. transition to SP).

Results

The median time to SP was slightly longer in the UMS than in the GIC, 15 vs. 11.5 years (p = 0.19). The MSPS was calibrated with multiplicative factors: 0.599 for the UMS and 0.829 for the GIC; the calibrated MSPS provided a good fit between expected and observed outcomes (chi-square p = 0.61 for the UMS), which indicated the model was not rejected.

Conclusion

The results suggest that the MSPS has clinically relevant generalizability in new cohorts, provided that the MSPS was calibrated to the actual overall SP incidence in the cohort.

Early Clinical Features, Time to Secondary Progression, and Disability Milestones in Polish Multiple Sclerosis Patients

Background and Objectives: Determining the clinical course of multiple sclerosis (MS) and prediction of long-term disability can be a big challenge. To determine early clinical features of MS, their influence on long-term disability progression, and time to transition from relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) to secondary progressive MS (SPMS), a cohort of Polish patients was studied. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 375 Polish MS patients based on data from available medical records. We assessed early clinical MS features and the relationship between demographics and time from disease onset to attainment of 4 and 6 points on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), as well as time to conversion from RRMS to SPMS. Results: The differences between initial MS variants were significantly associated with gender, age at disease onset, number and type of the first symptoms, and rate of the disability accrual. Mean times from disease onset to attainment of EDSS 4 and 6 were significantly influenced by the disease variant, age at onset, gender, degree of recovery from the initial symptoms, and first inter-bouts interval. The mean time to secondary progression was significantly influenced by the number and type of the first symptoms of RRMS. Conclusions: Early clinical features of MS are important in determining the disease variant, the time to transition from RRMS to SPMS, as well as predicting the disability accumulation of patients. Despite the small differences regarding the first MS symptoms, the disability outcomes in the cohort of Polish patients are similar to other regions of the world.

The MSBase registry: Informing clinical practice

Over the last decade, clinical registries have significantly contributed to the pool of evidence that supports management decisions in patients with multiple sclerosis. Being the largest international registry of multiple sclerosis and neuroimmunological disorders, MSBase collects demographic, clinical and limited paraclinical information from patients managed in different regions and under various circumstances. In this review, we will provide an overview of its published output, with focus on the information with impact on the management of multiple sclerosis.

Decreasing impact of late relapses on disability worsening in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

Background:

Changes in relapse activity during secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) need to be accurately characterized in order to identify patients who might benefit from continuing disease-modifying therapies.

Objective:

To describe relapse occurrence in patients with SPMS during long-term follow-up and assess its impact on disability worsening.

Methods:

This retrospective cohort study included 506 patients. We assessed the influence of relapses on time from SPMS onset to an Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 6 (EDSS 6), and on irreversible worsening of EDSS scores across different periods.

Results:

The annualized relapse rate (ARR) decreased with patient’s age (mean reduction of 43% per decade) and SPMS duration (mean reduction of 46% every 5 years). Post-progression relapses were associated with shorter time from secondary progressive (SP) phase onset to EDSS 6 (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = (1.01, 1.64)). Relapse occurrence during the first 3 years and 3–5 years after SP onset was associated with an increased risk of irreversible EDSS worsening (OR = 3.12 (1.54, 6.31) and 2.04 (1.16, 3.58)). This association was no longer significant after 5 years.

Conclusion:

The occurrence of relapses was a marker of short-term disability progression during early SPMS, but did not have decisive impact in later SPMS.

Oxysterols and apolipoproteins in multiple sclerosis: a 5 year follow-up study

The purpose of this work was to investigate whether changes in oxysterol and apolipoprotein levels over 5 years are associated with disease course and disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS). This study included 139 subjects [39 healthy controls (HCs), 61 relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) patients, and 39 progressive MS (P-MS) patients]. Oxysterols [24-hydroxycholesterol (24HC), 25-hydroxycholesterol (25HC), 27-hydroxycholesterol (27HC), 7α-hydroxycholesterol (7αHC), and 7-ketocholesterol (7KC)] were measured at baseline and 5 years using a novel mass spectrometric method, and apolipoproteins were measured using immunoturbidometric diagnostic kits. Levels of 24HC (P = 0.004), 25HC (P = 0.029), and 27HC (P = 0.026) increased in P-MS patients. 7KC (P = 0.047) and 7αHC (P = 0.001) levels decreased in RR-MS patients, and there were no changes in any oxysterols in HCs. In MS patients, ApoC-II (all P ≤ 0.01) and ApoE (all P ≤ 0.01) changes were positively associated with all oxysterol levels. Increases in 24HC (P = 0.038) and ApoB (P = 0.038) and decreases in 7KC (P = 0.020) were observed in RR-MS patients who converted to secondary P-MS (SP-MS) at follow-up and in SP-MS patients compared with RR-MS patients. Oxysterols and their associations with apolipoproteins differed between MS patients and HCs over 5 years. Oxysterol and apolipoprotein changes were associated with conversion to SP-MS.

Cree BAC, Hollenbach JA, Bove R, Kirkish G, Sacco S, Caverzasi E, Bischof A, Gundel T, Zhu AH, Papinutto N, Stern WA, Bevan C, Romeo A, Goodin DS, Gelfand JM, Graves J, Green AJ, Wilson MR, Zamvil SS, Zhao C, Gomez R, Ragan NR, Rush GQ, Barba P, Santaniello A, Baranzini SE, Oksenberg JR, Henry RG, Hauser SL. Silent progression in disease activity-free relapsing multiple sclerosis

Objective

Rates of worsening and evolution to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) may be substantially lower in actively treated patients compared to natural history studies from the pretreatment era. Nonetheless, in our recently reported prospective cohort, more than half of patients with relapsing MS accumulated significant new disability by the 10th year of follow‐up. Notably, “no evidence of disease activity” at 2 years did not predict long‐term stability. Here, we determined to what extent clinical relapses and radiographic evidence of disease activity contribute to long‐term disability accumulation.

Methods

Disability progression was defined as an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 1.5, 1.0, or 0.5 (or greater) from baseline EDSS = 0, 1.0–5.0, and 5.5 or higher, respectively, assessed from baseline to year 5 (±1 year) and sustained to year 10 (±1 year). Longitudinal analysis of relative brain volume loss used a linear mixed model with sex, age, disease duration, and HLA‐DRB1*15:01 as covariates.

Results

Relapses were associated with a transient increase in disability over 1‐year intervals (p = 0.012) but not with confirmed disability progression (p = 0.551). Relative brain volume declined at a greater rate among individuals with disability progression compared to those who remained stable (p < 0.05).

Interpretation

Long‐term worsening is common in relapsing MS patients, is largely independent of relapse activity, and is associated with accelerated brain atrophy. We propose the term silent progression to describe the insidious disability that accrues in many patients who satisfy traditional criteria for relapsing–remitting MS. Ann Neurol 2019;85:653–666

Microbe-metabolite-host axis, two-way action in the pathogenesis and treatment of human autoimmunity

The role of microorganism in human diseases cannot be ignored. These microorganisms have evolved together with humans and worked together with body's mechanism to maintain immune and metabolic function. Emerging evidence shows that gut microbe and their metabolites open up new doors for the study of human response mechanism. The complexity and interdependence of these microbe-metabolite-host interactions are rapidly being elucidated. There are various changes of microbial levels in models or in patients of various autoimmune diseases (AIDs). In addition, the relevant metabolites involved in mechanism mainly include short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), bile acids (BAs), and polysaccharide A (PSA). Meanwhile, the interaction between microbes and host genes is also a factor that must be considered. It has been demonstrated that human microbes are involved in the development of a variety of AIDs, including organ-specific AIDs and systemic AIDs. At the same time, microbes or related products can be used to remodel body's response to alleviate or cure diseases. This review summarizes the latest research of microbes and their related metabolites in AIDs. More importantly, it highlights novel and potential therapeutics, including fecal microbial transplantation, probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics. Nonetheless, exact mechanisms still remain elusive, and future research will focus on finding a specific strain that can act as a biomarker of an autoimmune disease.

Evolution of clinical trials in multiple sclerosis

Clinical trials have advanced the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) by demonstrating the safety and efficacy of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). This review discusses major changes to MS clinical trials in the era of DMTs. As treatment options for MS continue to increase, patients in modern MS trials present earlier and with milder disease compared with historic MS populations. While placebo-controlled trials for some questions may still be relevant, DMT trials in relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS) are no longer ethical. The replacement of the placebo arm by an active comparator arm in trials have raised the cost of trials by requiring larger sample sizes to detect on-study changes in treatment effects. Efforts to improve trial efficiency in RRMS have focused on exploring adaptive designs and relying on sensitive magnetic resonance imaging measures of disease activity. In trials for progressive forms of MS (PMS), the lack of sensitive outcome measures that can be used in shorter-term trials have delayed the development of effective treatments. Recent shifting of the focus to advancing trials in PMS has identified paraclinical outcome measurements with improved potential, and the testing of agents for neuroprotection and remyelination is in progress.

A multicenter comparison of MOG-IgG cell-based assays

Objectives

To compares 3 different myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein–immunoglobulin G (IgG) cell-based assays (CBAs) from 3 international centers.

Methods

Serum samples from 394 patients were as follows: acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (28), seronegative neuromyelitis optica (27), optic neuritis (21 single, 2 relapsing), and longitudinally extensive (10 single, 3 recurrent). The control samples were from patients with multiple sclerosis (244), hypergammaglobulinemia (42), and other (17). Seropositivity was determined by visual observation on a fluorescence microscope (Euroimmun fixed CBA, Oxford live cell CBA) or flow cytometry (Mayo live cell fluorescence-activated cell sorting assay).

Results

Of 25 samples positive by any methodology, 21 were concordant on all 3 assays, 2 were positive at Oxford and Euroimmun, and 2 were positive only at Oxford. Euroimmun, Mayo, and Oxford results were as follows: clinical specificity 98.1%, 99.6%, and 100%; positive predictive values (PPVs) 82.1%, 95.5%, and 100%; and negative predictive values 79.0%, 78.8%, and 79.8%. Of 5 false-positives, 1 was positive at both Euroimmun and Mayo and 4 were positive at Euroimmun alone.

Conclusions

Overall, a high degree of agreement was observed across 3 different MOG-IgG CBAs. Both live cell-based methodologies had superior PPVs to the fixed cell assays, indicating that positive results in these assays are more reliable indicators of MOG autoimmune spectrum disorders.

Association of Initial Disease-Modifying Therapy With Later Conversion to Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

IMPORTANCE

Within 2 decades of onset, 80% of untreated patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) convert to a phase of irreversible disability accrual termed secondary progressive MS. The association between disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), and this conversion has rarely been studied and never using a validated definition.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between the use, the type of, and the timing of DMTs with the risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS diagnosed with a validated definition.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cohort study with prospective data from 68 neurology centers in 21 countries examining patients with relapsing-remitting MS commencing DMTs (or clinical monitoring) between 1988-2012 with minimum 4 years' follow-up.

EXPOSURES

The use, type, and timing of the following DMTs: interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, fingolimod, natalizumab, or alemtuzumab. After propensity-score matching, 1555 patients were included (last follow-up, February 14, 2017).

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE

Conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive MS.

RESULTS

Of the 1555 patients, 1123 were female (mean baseline age, 35 years [SD, 10]). Patients initially treated with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta had a lower hazard of conversion to secondary progressive MS than matched untreated patients (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.61-0.81; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 12% [49 of 407] vs 27% [58 of 213]; median follow-up, 7.6 years [IQR, 5.8-9.6]), as did fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.62; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 7% [6 of 85] vs 32% [56 of 174]; median follow-up, 4.5 years [IQR, 4.3-5.1]); natalizumab (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43-0.86; P = .005; 5-year absolute risk, 19% [16 of 82] vs 38% [62 of 164]; median follow-up, 4.9 years [IQR, 4.4-5.8]); and alemtuzumab (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P = .009; 5-year absolute risk, 10% [4 of 44] vs 25% [23 of 92]; median follow-up, 7.4 years [IQR, 6.0-8.6]). Initial treatment with fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab was associated with a lower risk of conversion than initial treatment with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.99; P = .046); 5-year absolute risk, 7% [16 of 235] vs 12% [46 of 380]; median follow-up, 5.8 years [IQR, 4.7-8.0]). The probability of conversion was lower when glatiramer acetate or interferon beta was started within 5 years of disease onset vs later (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.98; P = .03; 5-year absolute risk, 3% [4 of 120] vs 6% [2 of 38]; median follow-up, 13.4 years [IQR, 11-18.1]). When glatiramer acetate or interferon beta were escalated to fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab within 5 years vs later, the HR was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66-0.88; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 8% [25 of 307] vs 14% [46 of 331], median follow-up, 5.3 years [IQR], 4.6-6.1).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with relapsing-remitting MS, initial treatment with fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab was associated with a lower risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS vs initial treatment with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta. These findings, considered along with these therapies' risks, may help inform decisions about DMT selection.

The Effect of Disease Modifying Therapies on Disability Progression in Multiple Sclerosis: A Systematic Overview of Meta-Analyses

Background: Disease modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy trials make an essential contribution to the development of evidence-based clinical treatments and practices for people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Meta-analysis is a critical part of this process and provides a powerful tool to assess the effects of DMT on MS progression. However, although there have been several meta-analyses on the effect of DMT on MS disease progression, they often do not reach the same conclusions.

Objective: Our aim was to better understand and contextualize the results of meta-analyses evaluating DMT, identify differences in methodology that might explain their differing conclusions, and highlight areas for future research that will improve our ability to develop clinical recommendations.

Methods: We conducted an overview of systematic reviews with meta-analyses assessing the efficacy of DMT on disability progression in people with MS in PubMed (Medline) and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews.

Results: We included 22 meta-analyses in this overview: eight general (on >3 DMT), 11 specific (on ≤3 DMT), 2 that evaluated subsets, and 1 that evaluated long-term effects. We found that there is good evidence that DMT improve short-term (≤2–3 years) disability progression outcomes relative to placebo in people with relapsing-remitting MS. However, results varied substantially between meta-analyses, and there is little evidence of their efficacy in other populations or over longer periods. The relative effects of individual DMT also remain unclear. The variance in results between meta-analyses may be related to the substantial differences in inclusion criteria, which was reflected in the limited overlap in included studies, as well as the year of meta-analysis publication. Of the 123 total unique studies included in the general meta-analyses, 77 (62.6%) were included in only one meta-analysis. This incongruence was also evident in the included DMT. Six of the 16 (37.5%) DMT evaluated in the general meta-analyses were only included in one meta-analysis.

Conclusions: Translating DMT efficacy studies into evidence-based clinical practice requires greater methodological consistency in meta-analyses, more data on the relative effects of DMT through head-to-head clinical trials, and better reporting of adverse events.

NeurEx: digitalized neurological examination offers a novel high-resolution disability scale

Objective

To develop a sensitive neurological disability scale for broad utilization in clinical practice.

Methods

We employed advances of mobile computing to develop an iPad‐based App for convenient documentation of the neurological examination into a secure, cloud‐linked database. We included features present in four traditional neuroimmunological disability scales and codified their automatic computation. By combining spatial distribution of the neurological deficit with quantitative or semiquantitative rating of its severity we developed a new summary score (called NeurEx; ranging from 0 to 1349 with minimal measurable change of 0.25) and compared its performance with clinician‐ and App‐computed traditional clinical scales.

Results

In the cross‐sectional comparison of 906 neurological examinations, the variance between App‐computed and clinician‐scored disability scales was comparable to the variance between rating of the identical neurological examination by multiple sclerosis (MS)‐trained clinicians. By eliminating rating ambiguity, App‐computed scales achieved greater accuracy in measuring disability progression over time (n = 191 patients studied over 880.6 patient‐years). The NeurEx score had no apparent ceiling effect and more than 200‐fold higher sensitivity for detecting a measurable yearly disability progression (i.e., median progression slope of 8.13 relative to minimum detectable change of 0.25) than Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) with a median yearly progression slope of 0.071 that is lower than the minimal measurable change on EDSS of 0.5.

Interpretation

NeurEx can be used as a highly sensitive outcome measure in neuroimmunology. The App can be easily modified for use in other areas of neurology and it can bridge private practice practitioners to academic centers in multicenter research studies.

Late-onset and young-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: evidence from a retrospective long-term follow-up study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Late-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) has a prevalence of about 10-20% in natural history MS studies. Few data have been published about the long-term disease trajectory in the cohort of late-onset relapsing-remitting MS (LORRMS). The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for reaching an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 6.0 in LORRMS (onset at >40 years of age) and young-onset relapsing-remitting MS (YORRMS) (onset between 18 and 40 years of age).

METHODS

Clinical and radiological [magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain] follow-up data were collected. Disability was assessed by EDSS score. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the demographic and clinical predictors of reaching an EDSS score of 6.0 in the two cohorts.

RESULTS

A total of 671 patients with relapsing-remitting MS were enrolled, 143 (21.3%) with LORRMS and 528 (78.7%) with YORRMS. In LORRMS, age at onset was 47.8 ± 5.3 (mean ± SD) years and duration of follow-up was 120.7 ± 52.7 months. In YORRMS, age at onset was 27 ± 2.7 years and duration of follow-up was 149.9 ± 92.7 months. The survival curve analyses showed a higher probability of reaching an EDSS score of 6.0 for LORRMS in a shorter time (months) than for YORRMS (94.2 vs. 103.2 months; log-rank 8.8; P < 0.05). On MRI, YORRMS showed more brain inflammatory features than LORRMS. In the multivariate Cox model, age at onset [Exp(B) value, 6.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-22.6; P < 0.001] and male gender [Exp(B) value, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.8; P < 0.05] were the strongest predictors of reaching an EDSS score of 6.0.

CONCLUSIONS

The male population with LORRMS reached severe disability faster than those with YORRMS, even when YORRMS showed more brain inflammatory features on MRI.

Predicting risk of secondary progression in multiple sclerosis: A nomogram

OBJECTIVES

We aimed at designing a nomogram, a prediction tool, to predict the individual's risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) at the time of multiple sclerosis (MS) onset.

METHODS

One derivation and three validation cohorts were established. The derivation cohort included 8825 relapsing-onset MS patients in Sweden. A nomogram was built based on a survival model with the best statistical fit and prediction accuracy. The nomogram was validated using data from 3967 patients in the British Columbia cohort, 176 patients in the ACROSS and 2355 patients in FREEDOMS/FREEDOMS II extension studies.

RESULTS

Sex, calendar year of birth, first-recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, age at the first EDSS and age at disease onset showed significant predictive ability to estimate the risk of SPMS conversion at 10, 15 and 20 years. The nomogram reached 84% (95% confidence intervals (CIs): 83-85) internal and 77% (95% CI: 76-78), 77% (95% CI: 70-85) and 87% (95% CI: 84-89) external accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The SPMS nomogram represents a much-needed complementary tool designed to assist in decision-making and patient counselling in the early phase of MS. The SPMS nomogram may improve outcomes by prompting timely and more efficacious treatment for those with a worse prognosis.

'Progressive MS - macro views': The need for novel clinical trial paradigms to enable drug development for progressive MS

This article outlines the principal challenges to establish a standard phase-2 approach for progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) and presents referring strategies to accelerate the registration process via a guidance approved by regulatory agencies. Accordingly, the contribution of 'big datasets' for a better understanding of the natural history of primary-progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) and secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and of their prognostic factors and the value of novel biomarkers are discussed. The establishment of new industry-academic initiatives, such as independent consortia under the umbrella of Progressive MS Alliance (PMSA), with the endorsement of MS organizations and Scientific Societies (e.g. European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS)) may be crucial to overcome some of the current challenges. Within this frame, the continuous interaction with regulatory agencies is instrumental for the formal validation of the many developments suitable to improve clinical trialling in PMS.

Multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis continues to be a challenging and disabling condition but there is now greater understanding of the underlying genetic and environmental factors that drive the condition, including low vitamin D levels, cigarette smoking, and obesity. Early and accurate diagnosis is crucial and is supported by diagnostic criteria, incorporating imaging and spinal fluid abnormalities for those presenting with a clinically isolated syndrome. Importantly, there is an extensive therapeutic armamentarium, both oral and by infusion, for those with the relapsing remitting form of the disease. Careful consideration is required when choosing the correct treatment, balancing the side-effect profile with efficacy and escalating as clinically appropriate. This move towards more personalised medicine is supported by a clinical guideline published in 2018. Finally, a comprehensive management programme is strongly recommended for all patients with multiple sclerosis, enhancing health-related quality of life through advocating wellness, addressing aggravating factors, and managing comorbidities. The greatest remaining challenge for multiple sclerosis is the development of treatments incorporating neuroprotection and remyelination to treat and ultimately prevent the disabling, progressive forms of the condition.

Management of multiple sclerosis patients in central European countries: current needs and potential solutions

Multiple sclerosis (MS) experts in Europe are facing rapidly rising demands of excellence due to the increasing complexity of MS therapy and management. A central European expert board of MS experts met to identify needs and obstacles with respect to raising quality of MS care in central and Eastern European countries. There are substantial variations across countries regarding delivery of care and its cost structure, as well as access to treatment. To date, Eastern European countries are often less able to afford reimbursement of immunomodulatory agents than Western countries. Overall, approximately 40% of working-age patients are not working due to MS. Costs rise steeply with increasing disability; indirect costs constitute the bulk of the financial burden in patients with severe MS. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment is meanwhile obligatory as the diagnostic interface in the management of MS patients. Recommended measures directed at improving quality of care include the collection of patient data in registries, enhanced education of healthcare professionals, implementation of national strategies aiming at reducing regional variation, optimization of approval processes, and removal of administrative barriers. Local partnerships with authorities such as those that represent the interests of employees can contribute to leverage the importance of epidemiological data. The need for education extends to (neuro)radiologists who are responsible for reporting MRI findings in expert quality. Dissemination of the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in MS (MAGNIMS) protocol would be an important step in this context. Also, clinical freedom of choice is rated as essential. Physicians should have access to a range of treatment options due to the complexity of disease. Guidelines such as the upcoming EAN-ECTRIMS clinical practice guideline also aim at providing a basis for argumentation in negotiations with national health authorities.

Challenge of progressive multiple sclerosis therapy

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Understanding the mechanisms underlying progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) and identifying appropriate therapeutic targets is a key challenge facing the MS community. This challenge has been championed internationally by organizations such as the Progressive MS Alliance, which has raised the profile of progressive MS and identified the key obstacles to treatment. This review will outline the considerable progress against these challenges.

RECENT FINDINGS

New insights into mechanisms underlying progression have opened up potential therapeutic opportunities. This has been complemented by ongoing validation of clinical and imaging outcomes for Phase II trials of progression, coupled with the development of innovative trial designs. The field has been greatly encouraged by recent positive Phase III trials in both primary and secondary progressive MS, albeit with modest benefit. Early trials of neuroprotection and repair have provided important new data with which to drive the field. Improving symptom management and advancing rehabilitation approaches, critical for this patient population which, taken together with identifying and managing comorbidities and risk factors, has an appreciable impact on health-related quality of life.

SUMMARY

Raising the profile of progressive MS has resulted in the first effective treatments with the promise of more to come.

New Multiple Sclerosis Disease Severity Scale Predicts Future Accumulation of Disability

The search for the genetic foundation of multiple sclerosis (MS) severity remains elusive. It is, in fact, controversial whether MS severity is a stable feature that predicts future disability progression. If MS severity is not stable, it is unlikely that genotype decisively determines disability progression. An alternative explanation tested here is that the apparent instability of MS severity is caused by inaccuracies of its current measurement. We applied statistical learning techniques to a 902 patient-years longitudinal cohort of MS patients, divided into training (n = 133) and validation (n = 68) sub-cohorts, to test four hypotheses: (1) there is intra-individual stability in the rate of accumulation of MS-related disability, which is also influenced by extrinsic factors. (2) Previous results from observational studies are negatively affected by the insensitive nature of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). The EDSS-based MS Severity Score (MSSS) is further disadvantaged by the inability to reliably measure MS onset and, consequently, disease duration (DD). (3) Replacing EDSS with a sensitive scale, i.e., Combinatorial Weight-Adjusted Disability Score (CombiWISE), and substituting age for DD will significantly improve predictions of future accumulation of disability. (4) Adjusting measured disability for the efficacy of administered therapies and other relevant external features will further strengthen predictions of future MS course. The result is a MS disease severity scale (MS-DSS) derived by conceptual advancements of MSSS and a statistical learning method called gradient boosting machines (GBM). MS-DSS greatly outperforms MSSS and the recently developed Age Related MS Severity Score in predicting future disability progression. In an independent validation cohort, MS-DSS measured at the first clinic visit correlated significantly with subsequent therapy-adjusted progression slopes (r = 0.5448, p = 1.56e−06) measured by CombiWISE. To facilitate widespread use of MS-DSS, we developed a free, interactive web application that calculates all aspects of MS-DSS and its contributing scales from user-provided raw data. MS-DSS represents a much-needed tool for genotype-phenotype correlations, for identifying biological processes that underlie MS progression, and for aiding therapeutic decisions.

Spotlight on siponimod and its potential in the treatment of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: the evidence to date

Siponimod (BAF312) is a synthetic molecule belonging to the sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) modulator family, which has putative neuroprotective properties and well-characterized immunomodulating effects mediated by sequestration of B and T cells in secondary lymphoid organs. Compared to fingolimod (ie, precursor of the S1P modulators commercially available for the treatment of relapsing–remitting [RR] multiple sclerosis [MS]), siponimod exhibits selective affinity for types 1 and 5 S1P receptor, leading to a lower risk of adverse events that are mainly induced by S1P3 receptor activation, such as bradycardia and vasoconstriction. In addition, S1P1 and S1P5 receptors are expressed by neurons and glia and could mediate a possible neuroprotective effect of the drug. A Phase II clinical trial of siponimod for RR MS showed a significant effect of the active drug compared to placebo on reducing gadolinium-enhancing lesions on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) after 3 months of treatment. In a recently completed Phase III trial, treatment with siponimod was associated with a significant reduction in disability progression in secondary progressive (SP) MS patients compared to placebo. In this article, current evidence supporting siponimod efficacy for SP MS is reviewed.

Patient selection for trials

The last several decades have witnessed considerable progress in our understanding of the pathogenesis, refining diagnostic criteria, and identifying therapies of value for modifying the course of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. While the pace of progress has lagged for those with progressive phase disease, this now seems to be changing. This review considers those characteristics of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis that may contribute to phase 3 trial success and identifies some of the thorny issues that remain ahead. The larger of the studies conducted thus far have sequentially informed our understanding of "pure" primary progressive disease, and also challenge both phase 3 and especially phase 2 trial designs and participant selection for investigations going forward. This may have particular relevance for testing therapeutics directed at neuroprotection and repair in the face of ongoing progression regardless of trial participant categorization using current conventional disease phenotypes.

Anti-inflammatory disease-modifying treatment and short-term disability progression in SPMS

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of disease-modifying treatment on short-term disability outcomes in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS).

METHODS

Using MSBase, an international cohort study, we previously validated a highly accurate definition of SPMS. Here, we identified patients in MSBase who were either untreated or treated with a disease-modifying drug when meeting this definition. Propensity score matching was used to select subpopulations with comparable baseline characteristics. Disability outcomes were compared in paired, pairwise-censored analyses adjusted for treatment persistence, visit density, and relapse rates.

RESULTS

Of the 2,381 included patients, 1,378 patients were matchable (treated n = 689, untreated n = 689). Median pairwise-censored follow-up was 2.1 years (quartiles 1.2-3.8 years). No difference in the risk of 6-month sustained disability progression was observed between the groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7-1.1, p = 0.27). We also did not find differences in any of the secondary endpoints: risk of reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥7 (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-1.1, p = 0.10), sustained disability reduction (HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.8-1.3, p = 0.79), or change in disability burden (area under the EDSS-time curve, β = -0.05, p = 0.09). Secondary and sensitivity analyses confirmed the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our pooled analysis of the currently available disease-modifying agents used after conversion to SPMS suggests that, on average, these therapies have no substantial effect on relapse-unrelated disability outcomes measured by the EDSS up to 4 years.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class IV evidence that for patients with SPMS, disease-modifying treatment has no beneficial effect on short-term disability progression.

Immune responses against Helicobacter pylori-specific antigens differentiate relapsing remitting from secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

To assess whether Helicobacter pylori (Hp) antibody (ab) reactivity against individual Hp antigens is pathogenetically relevant to multiple sclerosis (MS), we systematically investigated prevalence and clinical significance of abs against 14 immunodominant and subdominant Hp antigens by ELISA and immunoblotting in 139 consecutive MS patients with relapsing-remitting (RRMS, n = 102) or secondary progressive (SPMS, n = 37). Sera from 39 patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD), 21 with Alzheimer’s disease (ALZ) and 68 healthy controls (HCs), were also tested. Anti-flagellin (18.3%) and anti-p41 (25.0%) abs in MS were less frequent than in HCs (39.4%, 48.5%, respectively). Abs against 5 of the 14 antigens were less frequent in RRMS than HCs, including p41, p54-flagellin, p29-UreA, p67-FSH, and p120-CagA. Anti-VacA abs were more frequent in SPMS than in HCs (42.1 vs 12.1%, p = 0.019). Anti-p54, anti-p29-UreA and anti-p26 correlated with extended disability status scale (EDSS) (p = 0.017, p = 0.005, p = 0.002, respectively). Anti-p26 and anti-p17 correlated with the number of relapses (p = 0.037 and p = 0.047, respectively). This is the first comprehensive analysis of ab reactivities against most Hp antigens in MS patients. Ab responses differ between MS and HCs and between RRMS and SPMS, being more prevalent in SPMS than RRMS, thus suggesting an association between anti-Hp and the former type of MS.