A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

Survival gain after liver transplantation for patients with alcoholic liver disease: a comparison across models and centers

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models, which estimate survival probabilities, enable the survival benefit from a procedure to be assessed and allow the comparison of outcomes between centers. We therefore compared three models that estimate survival in the absence of transplantation for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) to assess survival benefit after transplantation and to compare the outcomes in the six liver-transplant centers in England.

METHODS

The Béclére and Birmingham models and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) were used to estimate survival in the absence of transplantation in a cohort of 82 patients with end-stage ALD. Posttransplant survival in the same cohort of patients was calculated using conventional survival techniques. Each individual's short-term survival gain after liver transplantation was also calculated and compared across UK liver transplant centers.

RESULTS

The expected gain in survival differed substantially depending on the model used. Over the 4-year study period, the survival gain for all ALD patients was 1.70 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37-2.03) using the Béclére model, 0.95 years (CI 0.60-1.30) using MELD, and 0.08 years (CI -0.31-0.47) using the Birmingham model. Two centers consistently had greater estimated survival gains up to 4 years postliver transplant regardless of the model used to estimate nontransplant survival.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that although liver transplantation is associated with an improvement in survival, the gain over 4 years is modest. The three models are poorly correlated and should be applied with caution. Survival gain does, however, appear to vary between centers.

Liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis

Liver transplantation is the accepted treatment for patients with end-stage liver disease or intractable symptoms secondary to primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), and has proven survival benefit. Indications for transplantation are an unacceptable quality of life or anticipated death in less than 1 year. Although there are a number of prognostic models, serum bilirubin provides the simplest guide to transplantation timing. Those grafted for PBC are at greater risk of developing chronic rejection, and are less likely to be successfully weaned from immunosuppression than those grafted for other indications. Following transplantation, antimitochondrial antibodies persist and histological features of recurrent PBC may be seen in the allograft in up to 50% by 10 years; however, at least in the medium-term, this rarely causes clinical problems.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for refractory ascites: an analysis of the literature on efficacy, morbidity, and mortality

OBJECTIVES

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is frequently used to treat patients with refractory ascites, but its role is controversial. We sought to determine from the literature the efficacy, morbidity, and mortality associated with TIPS for refractory ascites.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and identified studies published in English from January, 1985, to March, 2003, that evaluated the effect of TIPS in patients with refractory ascites. Outcomes that were analyzed included complete resolution of ascites, reduction in ascites, mortality, encephalopathy, stenosis, and renal function. Data were analyzed on an intention to treat basis.

RESULTS

Of 25 studies identified, 16 were included in the analysis. The pooled estimate for complete response at 6 months was 45% and for any response (complete and partial) was 63%. Pooled 6-month mortality after TIPS was 36%. Risk factors for mortality included renal insufficiency (serum creatinine >1.5 mg/dl), hyperbilirubinemia (total bilirubin >3 mg/dl), advanced age (>60 yr), and poor response to TIPS. The pooled rate of new or worsening encephalopathy after TIPS was 32%. In most cases, encephalopathy was managed medically or by reduction in shunt size; however, refractory cases were associated with 100% mortality in most studies. Studies reporting the effect of TIPS on kidney function showed improvement in creatinine clearance and urinary sodium excretion.

CONCLUSIONS

TIPS is effective in eliminating ascites or substantially reducing ascites in cases refractory to medical therapy. Renal insufficiency, refractory encephalopathy, and hyperbilirubinemia were consistently associated with mortality after TIPS. In individuals with risk factors for mortality, alternative strategies should be recommended.

The sickest first? Disparities with model for end-stage liver disease-based organ allocation: one region's experience

February 27, 2002, allocation of cadaver livers for transplantation changed from a waiting-time-based system to an evidence-based system referred to as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD). We reviewed data from 1 of the 11 United Network for Organ Sharing regions to determine the impact of the MELD on the allocation of cadaver livers for transplantation in that region. The region of interest (study region) consists of three distinct geographic areas (referred to as Transplant Service Areas [TSAs]). Based on information obtained from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network for the United States and for the study region, the following observations were made: (1) study region patients who received a cadaver liver had higher mean and median MELD scores than cadaver liver recipients in the United States (study region mean score, 25.1; median, 26.0; US mean score, 23.9; median, 24.0); (2) within the study region, TSAs with competing liver transplant programs performed transplantation on patients at a significantly higher mean MELD score than TSAs dominated by a single center (TSA-1 mean score, 27.3; TSA-2 mean score, 26.6; TSA-3 mean score, 21.3); this disparity persisted when transplantations for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were excluded; and (3) study region patients removed from the waiting list because of death or being too sick for transplantation have higher MELD scores than the national average (study region mean score, 25.4; US mean score, 23.8). Overall, implementation of the MELD resulted in a substantial increase in the number of transplantations performed for HCC, and MELD exceptions for all reasons were more common in TSAs that have multiple centers. Despite the MELD, there remains disparity in organ allocation within the study region. The MELD may accurately predict pretransplantation mortality, but it does not ensure equitable organ distribution. We propose that intraregional sharing of cadaver livers based on the MELD may help limit disparities in organ allocation.

Predictors of lung transplant survival in eurotransplant

This study was undertaken to assess the influence of patient/donor and center factors on lung transplantation outcome. Outcomes of all consecutive first cadaveric lung transplants performed at 21 Eurotransplant centers in 1997-99 were analyzed. The risk-adjusted center effect on mortality was estimated. A Cox model was built including donor and recipient age and gender, primary disease, HLA mismatches, patient's residence, cold ischemic time, donor's cause of death, serum creatinine, type of lung transplant, respiratory support status, clinical condition and percentage predicted FEV1. The center effect was calculated (expressed as the standardized difference between the observed and expected survival rates), and empirical and full Bayes methods were applied to evaluate between-center differences. A total of 590 adults underwent lung transplantation. The primary disease (p=0.01), HLA-mismatches (p = 0.02), clinical condition(p < 0.0001) and the patient's respiratory support status (p = 0.05) were significantly associated with survival. After adjusting for case-mix, no between-center differences could be found. An in-depth empirical Bayes analysis showed the between-center variation to be zero. Similar results were obtained from the full Bayes analysis. Based on these data, there is no scientific basis to support a hypothesis of possible association between center volume and lung survival rates.

A prognostic model for predicting waiting-list mortality for a total national cohort of adult heart-transplant candidates

BACKGROUND

Current trends in medical management of advanced heart failure and transplant medicine and the enactment of a national transplant law forced a change toward allocation driven by disease severity.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to create a model for predicting waiting-list survival on the basis of simple clinical parameters.

METHODS

The clinical profiles of all patients registered for heart transplantation in Germany in 1997 (n=889) were used as a derivation set, and the total German 1998 cohort (n=897) was used as a validation set. The model was validated by the c statistic and by comparison of risk stratified mortality rates. The validated model was fine tuned by the appropriate calibration procedures. The data were first classified into physiologic subscores: an urgency score, a left ventricular heart failure score, a right ventricular heart failure score, and a systemic heart failure score. A stepwise modeling procedure was undertaken using these subscores as factors as well as the recipient's age, ABO blood group, and body surface area.

RESULTS

The urgency and the left ventricular subscore were found to be significantly associated with waiting-list mortality. A summary index termed German Transplant Society (GTS) score was then calculated on the basis of seven parameters contained in these two subscores. The GTS score was able to predict waiting-list mortality risks for the 1998 cohort: 1-year mortality before transplantation was 71%, 34%, 11% for the high, medium, and low risk groups, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The use of this continuous disease severity index may improve the selection of cardiac transplant candidates.

Poor survival after liver retransplantation: is hepatitis C to blame?

Data from 1990 to 1996 suggest that the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in repeated orthotopic liver transplantation (re-OLT) is increasing, and patient survival may be worse. Aims of the study are to: (1) assess the prevalence of HCV in re-OLT, (2) compare survival between primary OLT and re-OLT for HCV versus non-HCV diseases, and (3) evaluate Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores in re-OLT. The United Network for Organ Sharing database for adult patients undergoing primary OLT or re-OLT from January 1996 to June 2002 was analyzed. Patients with malignancy or those who underwent re-OLT within 30 days of primary OLT were excluded. A total of 22,120 primary OLTs and 2,129 re-OLTs were performed. HCV was noted in 9,564 primary OLTs (43.2%) and 899 re-OLTs (42.2%). Overall 1, 3, and 5-year patient survival rates were 86%, 79%, and 73% for primary OLT, but 67%, 56%, and 52% for re-OLT (P <.001). Survival rates of patients with HCV at 1, 3, and 5 years were 86%, 76%, and 68% for primary OLT and 61%, 50%, and 45% for re-OLT (P <.001). Survival was less for patients with HCV compared with those with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and hepatitis B for re-OLT (P <.01). However, survival after re-OLT was no different for those with HCV than for those with all other causes. MELD scores between 11 and 20 were the most common for re-OLT. A marked decreased in survival was noted in all patients who underwent re-OLT with MELD scores greater than 25. HCV prevalence in OLT has reached a plateau in recent years. Survival after re-OLT is inferior to that for primary OLT, but re-OLT survival appears to have improved. Survival after re-OLT is lower in patients with HCV compared with those with AIH and hepatitis B, but no different than for those with most other liver diseases. Survival appeared worse in patients who underwent re-OLT with a MELD score greater than 25.

Liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis in the Nordic countries: outcome after acceptance to the waiting list

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a common indication for liver transplantation, but evaluation of patients and timing of liver transplantation remain as major problems. Data from PSC and control patients listed for liver transplantation from 1990 through 2000 in the Nordic countries were recorded prospectively. Outcomes from the waiting list and after transplantation have been recorded for both groups. For PSC patients, regression analyses have been performed to analyze predictors of outcome. A total of 255 PSC and 610 control patients were accepted on the liver transplantation waiting list from 1990 to 2000. In the PSC group, 223 patients (87%) received a first liver allograft, and 32 patients (13%) died without transplantation. The corresponding figures for the control group were 89% and 10%. For PSC patients, the 5- and 10-year survival from the time of acceptance was 68% and 58%, respectively. A higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and a shorter duration of PSC predicted death on the waiting list for PSC patients. PSC is a frequent indication for liver transplantation. In our material, serum bilirubin or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and PSC duration are predictors of outcome including survival of the waiting list.

Predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis of liver with application of neural network technology

BACKGROUND

Prediction of mortality from cirrhosis is important in planning optimal timing of liver transplantation and other interventions. We evaluated the role of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which uses non-linear statistics for pattern recognition in predicting one-year liver disease-related mortality using information available during initial clinical evaluation.

METHODS

The ANN was constructed using software with data from a training set (n = 46) selected at random from a cohort of adult cirrhotics (n = 92). After training, validation was performed in the remaining patients (n = 46) whose outcome in terms of one-year mortality was unknown to the network. The performance of ANN was compared to those of a logistic regression model (LRM) and Child-Pugh's score (CPS). Death (related to cirrhosis/its complications) within one year of inclusion was the outcome variable. The ANN was also tested in an external validation sample (EVS, n = 62) from another hospital.

RESULTS

Patients in the EVS were younger (mean age, 41 vs 45 years), infrequently of alcoholic etiology (5% vs 49%), had less severe disease (mean CPS 6.6 vs 10.8), and had lower one-year mortality (13 vs 46%). In the internal validation sample, ANN's accuracy was 91%, sensitivity 90% and specificity 92% in prediction of one-year mortality; area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.94. The performance of the LRM (accuracy 74%) and the CPS (accuracy 55%) was significantly worse than ANN (P < 0.05, McNemar's test). Despite differences in the characteristics of the two groups, the ANN performed fairly well in the EVS (accuracy of 90%, area under curve 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

ANN can accurately predict one-year mortality in cirrhosis and is superior to CPS and LRM.

Hepatitis C positive grafts may be used in orthotopic liver transplantation: a matched analysis

Hepatitis C (HCV)-positive liver grafts have been increasingly used in patients with decompensated liver disease from HCV because of critical shortage of available organs. Fifty-nine recipients of HCV-positive grafts were matched to patients who received HCV-negative grafts. All recipients were transplanted for HCV liver disease. Matching variables were (1) status, (2) pre-transplant creatinine, (3) recipient age, (4) donor age, (5) warm ischemia time, and (6) year of transplantation. Both unmatched and matched analyses were performed on patient survival, graft survival, and time to HCV recurrence. There was no significant statistical difference in patient, graft, or HCV recurrence-free survival between recipients of HCV-positive and HCV-negative grafts with matched and unmatched analyses (p > 0.05). The 3-year estimates of HCV disease-free survival were 12% (+/- 9%) and 19% (+/- 7%) using HCV-positive and -negative grafts, respectively. The use of HCV-positive grafts in recipients with HCV does not appear to affect patient survival, graft survival, or HCV recurrence when compared with the use of HCV-negative grafts. Our results suggest that HCV-positive grafts can be used in a HCV liver transplant recipient.

To transplant or not to transplant recurrent hepatitis C and liver failure

In summary, re-OLT accounts for 10% of all OLTs performed and is associated with significantly increased resource use, and decreased survival compared with primary OLT. After transplantation into an HCV-infected recipient, infection of the allograft by HCV is invariable. As patients survive longer after liver transplantation, it is likely that allograft failure related to HCV recurrence will occur. Results of re-OLT for HCV are inferior to those of primary grafting, paralleling the results for retransplantation for other indications. Many studies have demonstrated that HCV infection significantly impairs patient and allograft survival after liver retransplantation, regardless of etiology of allograft failure. Patient survival rates with HCV infection are 57% to 65% at 1 year, as compared with 65% to 82% among patients without HCV infection. Experience with retransplantation is limited, however, and studies are difficult to interpret because of small sample sizes and lack of uniform definitions of survival, HCV recurrence, and allograft failure. Similar to outcomes after retransplantation for non-HCV related indications, the most common causes of death are sepsis and multi-organ failure. The high mortality associated with retransplantation has not universally been caused by recurrent disease, however recent studies have demonstrated that re-recurrent HCV occurs and the natural history is similar, if not more accelerated, after the second transplant. HCV infection may, in fact, increase mortality in a group of patients already predisposed to an inferior outcome. Preoperative serum creatinine and bilirubin have been consistently associated with survival after retransplantation and favorable results are attainable with strict selection criteria. The increasing use of expanded donor criteria, in particular, LRLT, raises important practical and ethical issues with regards to the HCV-positive transplant recipient and will become a challenge to the transplant community as a whole. With the donor morbidity and mortality associated with LRLT currently estimated at 32% and 0.3%, respectively, one must determine how much risk is acceptable to the donor in relation to the outcome in the recipient. This is especially true in HCV-infected recipients, in whom HCV re-recurrence may occur in the second allograft and lead to accelerated failure. LRLT, however, would not deplete the organ pool and would lead to the use of scarce cadaveric organs to patients who are awaiting primary liver transplantation. Despite inferior outcomes, a better tactic may be to consider retransplantation for recurrent HCV in those whose primary transplant was a LDLT, as the initial allograft did not deplete the donor pool. Given the shortage of donor organs and the increasing number of patients with HCV-induced allograft cirrhosis, identifying ways to improve allograft survival in HCV-infected patients represents an important focus for further research. Additional studies are needed to further explore the mechanisms underlying the reduction in survival and to identify which HCV-positive individuals are at greatest risk for poor survival. Studies are beginning to emerge that demonstrate that HCV recurrence can be modified with combination antiviral therapy and that the HCV virus can be eliminated. Additional longitudinal prospective studies are needed to assess the exact impact of HCV on survival after retransplantation, the effects of the newer immunosuppressive agents such as sirolimus and mycophenolate mofetil on HCV, the use of preemptive antiviral therapy on HCV eradication and fibrosis modification, and the appropriateness of expanded donor criteria. Until we have longer follow-up and greater experience with the HCV-positive recipient with allograft failure, retransplantation should be considered a viable option for highly selected patients, particularly in patients in whom renal failure and severe hyperbilirubinemia have not occurred.

Risk factors for acute rejection in living donor liver transplantation

The influence of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) compatibility and lymphocytotoxic crossmatch on acute rejection in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has not been well examined. We analyzed 100 consecutive adult LDLT cases. The patient and graft survival rates and post-operative complications were assessed. The relation between the incidence of acute rejection and some clinical factors including HLA and lymphocytotoxic matching was also examined. Patients with HLA DR zero mismatching (p = 0.02) or negative T-lymphocytotoxic crossmatch (p = 0.04) had a significantly lower chance of rejection within 6 wk after LDLT. However the results had no influence on the patient survival. Our results demonstrate that in LDLT, a graft from an HLA-DR zero mismatching or negative T-lymphocytotoxic crossmatch might be advantageous because of the decreased probability of early acute rejection.

Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P <.0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P =.004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model chi(2) = 105, P <.0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

Timed Pediatric Risk of Mortality Scores predict outcomes in pediatric liver transplant recipients

More reliable methods are needed to identify children at risk for poor outcomes following liver transplantation. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) Score is a physiology-based scoring system used to quantify risk of mortality in pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) populations. We evaluated the PRISM Score as a predictor of outcomes including survival in the pediatric liver transplant (LT) population. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 67 consecutive LTs performed between August 1997 and February 2000 at an urban, tertiary children's hospital in Chicago, IL, USA. Four PRISM Scores were calculated to determine which periods were most meaningful. A Classic PRISM Score was calculated during first 24 h of ICU admission, and three PRISM Scores were timed with the patient's transplant: a pre-LT PRISM Score (24 h prior to transplant whether in ICU or not), a 24-h post-LT PRISM Score and a 48-h post-LT PRISM Score. These PRISM Scores and other predictors including transplant number, UNOS status and PELD Score were compared with outcomes including survival using univariate methods. The pre-LT, the 24- and the 48-h PRISM Score were associated with the post-LT number of ventilated days (p < 0.05), ICU days (p < 0.05) and with 1-yr survival (p < 0.04). The PRISM Scores were not related to the post-LT hospital length of stay (LOS) or to 1-yr re-transplantation. The PELD Score correlated with the post-LT hospital LOS, but was not associated with mortality or with the ICU LOS. A patient's UNOS status and Classic PRISM Score were not associated with any of the outcomes measured. PRISM Scores are valid predictors of outcome including survival in pediatric LT recipients. These findings help to demonstrate the importance in this population of a patient's general physiologic condition and its influence on the overall hospital course and survival.

Expression of Wilms' tumor suppressor in the liver with cirrhosis: relation to hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 and hepatocellular function

The Wilms' tumor suppressor WT1 is a transcriptional regulator present in the fetal but not in the mature liver. Its expression and functional role in liver diseases remains unexplored. In this study, we analyzed WT1 expression by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and by immunohistochemistry in normal and diseased livers. In addition, we performed in vitro studies in isolated rat hepatocytes to investigate WT1 regulation and function. We detected WT1 messenger RNA (mRNA) in 18% of normal livers, 17% of chronic hepatitis with minimal fibrosis, 49% of chronic hepatitis with bridging fibrosis, and 71% of cirrhotic livers. In cirrhosis, WT1 immunoreactivity was localized to the nucleus of hepatocytes. WT1 mRNA abundance correlated inversely with prothrombin time (P =.04) and directly with serum bilirubin (P =.002) and with the MELD score (P =.001) of disease severity. In rats, WT1 expression was present in fetal hepatocytes and in the cirrhotic liver but not in normal hepatic tissue. In vitro studies showed that isolated primary hepatocytes express WT1 when stimulated with transforming growth factor beta (TGF-beta) or when the cells undergo dedifferentiation in culture. Moreover, we found that WT1 down-regulates hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 (HNF-4), a factor that is essential to maintain liver function and metabolic regulation in the mature organ. Hepatic expression of HNF-4 was impaired in advanced human cirrhosis and negatively correlated with WT1 mRNA levels (P =.001). In conclusion, we show that WT1 is induced by TGF-beta and down-regulates HNF-4 in liver cells. WT1 is reexpressed in the cirrhotic liver in relation to disease progression and may play a role in the development of hepatic insufficiency in cirrhosis.

Clinical relevance of time of onset, duration, and type of pulmonary edema after liver transplantation

We investigated the clinical significance of time of onset, duration, and type of pulmonary edema after orthotopic liver transplantation by retrospectively reviewing 93 consecutive recipients. Pulmonary edema was diagnosed by means of radiographic criteria and Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio <300. Type was identified by pulmonary artery wedge pressure (hydrostatic, >18 mm Hg; permeability, < or =18 mm Hg). Of 91 evaluable patients, 44 (48%) had no pulmonary edema, 23 (25%) had immediate pulmonary edema resolving within 24 hours, 8 (9%) had late pulmonary edema (developing de novo in the first 16 to 24 hours), and 16 (18%) had persistent pulmonary edema (developing immediately and persisting for at least 16 hours). At 16 to 24 hours, mean arterial pressure was lower with persistent permeability-type edema than without pulmonary edema (75 versus 87 mm Hg, P <.01). Patients with persistent permeability-type edema had higher mean pulmonary arterial pressure (23 versus 16 mm Hg, P <.01) and higher pulmonary vascular resistance (103 versus 53 dyn. second. m(-5), P <.05), consistent with a resistance-dependent mechanism. Patients with persistent hydrostatic-type edema did not differ from those without edema in mean arterial pressure (84 versus 87 mm Hg, P >.05) or pulmonary vascular resistance (67 versus 53 dyn. second. m(-5), P >.05), but had increased mean pulmonary arterial pressure (27 versus 16, P <.01), suggesting a flow volume-dependent mechanism. Duration of mechanical ventilation, intensive care, and hospital stay were prolonged in patients with late or persistent permeability-type edema but not in patients with immediate pulmonary edema of any type. In conclusion, immediate pulmonary edema resolving within 24 hours after liver transplantation had little clinical consequence; persistent permeability-type pulmonary edema portended a worse outcome.

Low prevalence of colonization with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus in patients awaiting liver transplantation

The orthotopic liver transplant (OLT) population has been particularly affected by the increase in vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) infections in recent years. Pre-transplant colonization prevalence, the role of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) antimicrobial prophylaxis as a risk factor, and the risk of post-OLT infection in colonized patients are all unknowns. We prospectively evaluated OLT candidates at our center with the aim of answering these questions. Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus colonization status was determined by rectal culture. Data collected included illness severity, antibiotic use (including SBP prophylaxis), waiting time, previous hospitalizations, and invasive procedures. Eighty-eight patients (31 female, 57 male, median age 52 years) were enrolled. The most common diagnoses were hepatitis C (49%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (13.6%), and alcoholic liver disease. Median MELD score was 11.5 (range 7-24), and median waiting time was 551 days (range 1-2224). Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus risk factors were common in our patients: recent hospitalization in 16%, recent antibiotic exposure in 39%, and renal insufficiency in 7%. Seventeen percent were receiving SBP prophylaxis. Despite the presence of established risk factors, VRE colonization prevalence was 3.4%. Preliminary limited data showed poor correlation between screening rectal cultures and operative/peri-operative cultures. Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus colonization prevalence in an OLT candidate population with mid-level MELD scores was low, and SBP prophylaxis was not a significant risk factor.

A follow-up analysis of the pattern and predictors of dropout from the waiting list for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: implications for the current organ allocation policy

Since our interim report of the intention-to-treat outcome of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we have performed a follow-up analysis of an expanded cohort of 70 patients to further assess whether the observed pattern and predictors of dropout are consistent with the rationale behind current HCC-adjusted Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) organ allocation scheme. All except one patient had pretransplantation staging meeting our proposed expanded criteria-a single lesion < or =6.5 cm, or three or fewer lesions none >4.5 cm and total tumor diameter < or =8 cm. Thirty-eight patients received OLT. The cumulative probabilities of dropout at 6, 12, and 18 months were 7.2%, 37.8%, and 55.1%, respectively. The respective dropout probabilities would have been 11.0%, 57.4%, and 68.7% if the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) criteria for exclusion (single lesion < or =5 cm or three or fewer lesions none >3 cm) were applied. Predictors of dropout with either criteria included three tumor nodules and a single lesion >3 cm at initial presentation, whereas preoperative chemoembolization or ablation therapies were associated with a lower risk for dropout only when applying the UNOS criteria for patient exclusion. In the subgroup with two or three lesions or a solitary tumor >3 cm, the cumulative probabilities of dropout were nine-fold higher than those with a single lesion < or =3 cm (P =.004). In conclusion, the low dropout rate in the first 6 months and the differing dropout risks based on tumor characteristics support further refinements in the HCC-adjusted MELD organ allocation scheme.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score does not predict patient or graft survival in living donor liver transplant recipients

Although living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is a successful procedure for most recipients, outcomes in patients who undergo transplantation as United Network for Organ Sharing status 2A are marginal. There are no published data on living donor liver transplant recipient outcomes relative to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. Such information could be useful in living donor liver transplant recipient selection. We retrospectively analyzed all non-fulminant hepatic failure, right hepatic lobe, adult-to-adult living donor liver transplant recipients at our center between August 1997 and March 2002. We calculated MELD scores at the time of LDLT and correlated scores with 1-year patient and graft survival and hospital days during the 90-day post-LDLT period. There were 62 recipients with greater than 6 months of follow-up: 38 men, 24 women; mean age, 47.9 years; 42 white, 1 black, 17 Hispanic, and 2 Asian patients. Twenty-nine patients had hepatitis C virus infection; 4 patients, hepatitis C virus infection and alcoholic liver disease; 4 patients, alcoholic liver disease; 4 patients, cryptogenic cirrhosis; 13 patients, primary sclerosing cholangitis; 5 patients, autoimmune hepatitis; and 3 patients, primary biliary cirrhosis. Mean and median MELD scores were 15.2 and 13, respectively (range, 6 to 40). One-year patient and graft survival were 59 of 62 patients (95%) and 52 of 62 patients (84%), respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between median MELD scores of dead versus living patients (15 v 13; P =.15) or patients who underwent retransplantation versus those who did not (16.5 v 13; P =.30). Mean and median hospital days in the 90-day post-LDLT period were 23.7 and 16.0 days, respectively. Living donor liver transplant recipients with a MELD score of 18 or greater had significantly more hospital days compared with recipients with a MELD score less than 18 (35.2 v 19.8 days; P =.01). In conclusion, MELD scores did not predict post-LDLT patient or graft survival at 1 year. However, higher MELD scores (> or =18) were associated with more hospital days during the 3-month post-LDLT period.

Current state of portosystemic shunt surgery

BACKGROUND

A switch to decompressive shunt procedures is mandatory if endoscopic therapy fails to control recurrent variceal hemorrhage. Surgical shunt procedures continue to be safe, highly effective, and durable procedures to treat variceal bleeding in patients with low operative risk and good liver function.

DISCUSSION

In cirrhotics, elective operations using portal flow preserving techniques such as a selective distal splenorenal shunt (Warren) and a partial portocaval small diameter interposition shunt (Sarfeh) should be preferred. Rarely, end-to-side portocaval shunt may serve as a salvage procedure if emergency endoscopic treatment or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt insertion fails to stop bleeding. Until definitive results from randomized trials are available patients with good prognosis (Child-Pugh A and B) should be regarded as candidates for surgical shunts. For patients with noncirrhotic portal hypertension, in particular with extrahepatic portal vein thrombosis, portosystemic shunt surgery represents the only effective therapy which leads to freedom of recurrent bleeding and repeated endoscopies for many years, and improves hypersplenism without deteriorating liver function or encephalopathy. Gastroesophageal devascularization and other direct variceal ablative procedures should be restricted to treat endoscopic therapy failures without shuntable portal tributaries.

Trans-catheter arterial chemoembolisation for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with viral cirrhosis: role of combined staging systems, Cancer Liver Italian Program (CLIP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), in predicting outcome after treatment

BACKGROUND

Trans-catheter arterial chemoembolisation (TACE) is the most common palliative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The therapeutic options depend both on the characteristics of the tumour and on functional staging of the cirrhosis.

AIM

To evaluate the effects of TACE on the survival of cirrhotic patients with HCC according to different staging systems [Okuda score, Cancer Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score] and in relation to the side-effects of TACE.

METHODS

Fifty cirrhotic patients, 36 CTP class A and 14 class B, underwent 106 TACE treatments with mitoxantrone. Survival at 12, 24, and 36 months was evaluated.

RESULTS

MELD at 12 months and CLIP at 24 months were identified as significant variables associated with survival. Combined cut-offs of CLIP and of MELD identified four subgroups of patients with different survivals, at 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively: CLIP >or= 2 and MELD >or= 10 (63%, 20% and 0%), CLIP < 2 and MELD >or= 10 (73%, 40% and 22%), CLIP >or= 2 and MELD < 10 (73%, 40% and 22%) and CLIP < 2 and MELD < 10 (100%, 63% and 50%). Post-TACE side-effects proved to have no influence on survival.

CONCLUSION

In patients with poor probability of survival (CLIP >or= 2 and MELD >or= 10), TACE must be planned with a great deal of caution, while in patients with possibly good outcomes (CLIP < 2 and MELD < 10), more 'aggressive' therapy should be taken into consideration.

Review article: liver transplantation for HCC. Treatment options on the waiting list

The most widely adopted criteria to admit and maintain patients with HCC and cirrhosis in the waiting list for liver transplantation are the Milano criteria, consisting in the presence of a single tumour <or=5 cm in diameter or up to three tumours, none exceeding 3 cm in diameter. Since the average time to transplantation has become longer than 10-12 months in most European and American Centers, the exclusion from the list during the waiting period due to increase of the neoplasm over the established criteria is not uncommon at present. It is mandatory, therefore, to seek an effective therapeutic strategy for patients with HCC waiting for transplantation. Surgical resection and eventual subsequent salvage transplantation seems a cost-effective strategy in resectable HCC. In unresectable neoplasms both transarterial chemoembolization and percutaneous ablation techniques are currently used and one or the other are chosen according to individual applicability, limitations and specific risks. However, although positive trends were reported, no definitive evidence has been produced so far about their efficacy in increasing patient's survival and decreasing tumour recurrence rates after transplantation. Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation is one possible way to shorten the waiting list, but this strategy involves important ethical implications. At present it appears justified to take it into consideration only if the waiting time for cadaveric OLT is expected to exceed 7 months. A more general and definitive attempt to overcome problems related to long waiting times for patients with HCC and relatively preserved hepatic function has been introduced in the USA very recently and consists in prioritizing patients with HCC. However, the overall efficacy of this approach will be established only in some years.

Successful MARS treatment in severe cholestatic patients with acute on chronic liver failure

Extracorporeal liver devices have gained great attention as a complementary approach to liver transplantation in patients with acute on chronic liver failure. Among others, Molecular Adsorbent Recycling System (MARS) is a hemodiafiltration against albumin able to remove low molecular weight toxins. We aimed to validate the use of MARS in patients presenting with acute on chronic liver failure with severe cholestasis. We enrolled 7 patients with acute on chronic liver failure, presenting with bilirubin >25 mg/dl and hepatorenal syndrome and/or hepatic encephalopathy grade >II. Liver biochemistry, coagulation, blood cell count, electrolytes, ammonia, lactate, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, bile acids, Fischer ratio, and encephalopathy grade were assessed before and after each MARS treatment. MARS can represent a safe therapeutic choice to achieve a quick improvement of neurological status, a hemodynamic stability, and a better clinical outcome. In particular, our encouraging results suggest that also, patients with severe cholestasis may represent in the future a good indication for MARS treatment.

Review article: hepatocellular carcinoma: indications for liver transplantation

The role of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma has evolved over the years and currently is one of the curative therapies for small tumours. The survival rates are similar with those for nonmalignant liver disease after transplantation. The treatment of small tumours eligible for both resection and transplantation depends on the experience of the transplant centre and the waiting time for a liver graft. With waiting times for liver transplant becoming gradually longer, prioritization of the tumour patients has been suggested. Adjuvant therapies may delay the tumour progression while patients wait for a transplant. The living donor and the domino liver transplantation are useful alternatives given the shortage of organs but the experience is still limited in the Western world and the selection for the domino livers is fairly restricted.

Relationship of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scale to hepatic encephalopathy, as defined by electroencephalography and neuropsychometric testing, and ascites

OBJECTIVE

It has recently been suggested that the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is a better and a more objective predictor of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease. The aim of our study was to determine the relationship of the MELD score to hepatic encephalopathy (HE), as determined by electroencephalography (EEG) and clinical and neuropsychometric examination, and ascites.

METHODS

A total of 66 patients underwent EEG, a neuropsychometric screening by Mini-Mental State Examination, Trails Making Tests, Rey-Osterreith Complex Figure, and Hopkins Verbal Learning Tests, and a clinical assessment for HE. The MELD score was calculated as previously described by using serum creatinine, bilirubin, and international normalized ratio. Subclinical HE was diagnosed if clinical examination did not detect HE but neuropsychometric tests and EEG were abnormal.

RESULTS

Sixteen patients had no HE, 28 had subclinical HE, and 22 had clinical HE. Age, sex, race, and cause of liver disease were similar in all three groups. Child-Turcotte-Pugh score was significantly higher in patients with clinical HE compared with the other two groups. There was only a modest correlation (r = 0.5) between Child-Turcotte-Pugh and the MELD scores. The distribution and mean MELD scores were similar in patients with or without HE as determined by clinical or neuropsychometric examination and EEG. Approximately 90% of patients with clinical HE or abnormal EEG and neuropsychometric tests had a MELD score less than 25. Similarly, the MELD score was not affected by the severity of ascites.

CONCLUSION

The MELD score does not correlate well with severity of HE or ascites. Patients with HE and ascites might not receive liver transplantation in a timely manner if MELD scores were to be used exclusively for organ allocation.

A comparison of Child-Pugh, APACHE II and APACHE III scoring systems in predicting hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of Child-Pugh and APACHE II and III scoring systems in predicting short-term, hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

200 admissions of 147 cirrhotic patients (44% viral-associated liver cirrhosis, 33% alcoholic, 18.5% cryptogenic, 4.5% both viral and alcoholic) were studied prospectively. Clinical and laboratory data conforming to the Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores were recorded on day 1 for all patients. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC). Calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

RESULTS

Overall mortality was 11.5%. The mean Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores for survivors were found to be significantly lower than those of nonsurvivors. Discrimination was excellent for Child-Pugh (ROC AUC: 0.859) and APACHE III (ROC AUC: 0.816) scores, and acceptable for APACHE II score (ROC AUC: 0.759). Although the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic revealed adequate goodness-of-fit for Child-Pugh score (P = 0.192), this was not the case for APACHE II and III scores (P = 0.004 and 0.003 respectively)

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that, of the three models, Child-Pugh score had the least statistically significant discrepancy between predicted and observed mortality across the strata of increasing predicting mortality. This supports the hypothesis that APACHE scores do not work accurately outside ICU settings.

Pretransplant MELD score as a predictor of outcome after liver transplantation for chronic hepatitis C

The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, an accurate predictor of mortality in patients awaiting liver transplantation (OLTX), did not predict graft or patient survival in the post-transplant setting. Our aim was to test the model in patients who underwent OLTX for chronic hepatitis C. Two hundred and eighty-seven adult patients who underwent primary OLTX for chronic hepatitis C between December 1993 and September 1999 were studied from a prospectively maintained database. The group was stratified by MELD scores of less than 15, 15-24, and greater than 24. Patient survival, graft survival, and interval liver biopsy pathology were reviewed. Both patient and graft survival at 3, 6, and 12 months were significantly lower in the higher MELD score groups, as was patient survival at 24 months (p-values, 0.01-0.05). The difference in survival between the low, medium, and high MELD score groups increases in time. The survival without bridging fibrosis in the allograft at 1 year post-transplant was significantly lower with higher MELD scores (p = 0.037). The decrease in survival seen in hepatitis C patients with MELD scores greater than 24 raises questions of transplant suitability for these patients. Therapeutic modalities to decrease post-transplant graft injury in these patients should be explored.

MELD score predicts 1-year patient survival post-orthotopic liver transplantation

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is an important predictor in patients awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). However, the model's association with posttransplant patient survival is unclear. We studied 1-year patient survival in 404 adult patients who underwent OLT at the University of California Los Angeles. The hazard rates of patient survival according to the MELD strata and United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) statuses were assessed by Proportional Hazard Cox regression analysis. The difference in survival for MELD strata and UNOS status were compared using the Cox model. There was a significant difference in 1-year patient (P =.0006) survival using different MELD strata, whereas there was a trend according to UNOS status (P =.051). Increased rate of death was observed in recipients of OLT with higher MELD scores (> 36, hazard ratio 3.9; 95% CI 1.55, 10.27) and more urgent UNOS status (2A; hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% CI 1.07, 3.7). The MELD stratum is better associated with 1-year patient survival in liver transplant recipients than UNOS statuses. Patient survival was worse with higher MELD scores.

Comparison of MELD, Child-Pugh, and Emory model for the prediction of survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting

OBJECTIVES

Recently, new prognostic models (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD model] and Emory score) were proposed for the prediction of survival in transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) patients. Although the MELD model is considered to be superior and has consecutively been applied to priority listing for liver transplantation, these models have never been directly compared in terms of long-term prognosis. We therefore compared the prognostic accuracy of the different models, including the Child-Pugh score, in an unselected cohort of TIPS patients followed long-term.

METHODS

Baseline risk scores for 162 unselected consecutive TIPS patients followed until death (n = 81), liver transplantation, or end of observation (n = 81) (mean follow-up 30.7 +/- 26.4 months) were calculated, and respective concordance- (c-)statistics for the predictive accuracy of 3-, 12-, and 36-month survival for the three models were compared statistically.

RESULTS

All three models predicted short-term (3-month) survival with similar accuracy. The MELD model generated the best c-statistics for both 12-month (c-statistic 0.73, 95% CI = 0.64-0.82) and 36-month survival (c-statistic 0.74, 95% CI = 0.64-0.84). The predictive accuracy of the Emory score was significantly lower (c-statistic for 12-month survival: 0.60, 95% CI = 0.52-0.68, p = 0.012 vs MELD). In the statistical comparison of the MELD and the Child-Pugh model, only a trend favoring MELD for the prediction of 1-yr survival in patients with intestinal bleeding could be observed (MELD: c-statistic 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67-0.89; Child-Pugh: c-statistic 0.67, 95% CI = 0.55-0.80, p = 0.059).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD model is superior to the Emory score but only slightly superior to the Child-Pugh classification for the prediction of long-term survival in TIPS patients.

Critical analysis of the allocation policy for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver transplantation is now the standard treatment for end-stage liver disease. Given the shortage of liver donors and the progressively higher number of patients waiting for transplantation, improvements in patient selection and optimization of timing for transplantation are needed. Several solutions have been suggested, including increasing the donor pool; a fair policy for allocation, not permitting variables such as age, gender, and race, or third-party payer status to play any role; and knowledge of the natural history of each liver disease for which transplantation is offered. To observe ethical rules and distributive justice (guarantee to every citizen the same opportunity to get an organ), the "sickest first" policy must be used. Studies have demonstrated that death has no relationship with waiting time, but rather with the severity of liver disease at the time of inclusion. Thus, waiting time is no longer part of the United Network for Organ Sharing distribution criteria. Waiting time only differentiates between equally severely diseased patients. The authors have analyzed the waiting list mortality and 1-year survival for patients of the State of S o Paulo, from July 1997 through January 2001. Only the chronological criterion was used. According to "Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo" data, among all waiting list deaths, 82.2% occurred within the first year, and 37.6% within the first 3 months following inclusion. The allocation of livers based on waiting time is neither fair nor ethical, impairs distributive justice and human rights, and does not occur in any other part of the world.

Liver transplantation

Over the last 20 years dramatic improvements in liver transplantation have given children and adults a greater than 80% chance of long-term survival. The year 2002 marked a dramatic change in the system for allocating livers from a model based both on medical criteria (Child-Turcotte-Pugh) and waiting time to a system based solely on medical urgency model of end-stage liver disease (MELD). Further attempts to increase organ availability were seen in the continued increase in living donor transplants. Attention was directed both at recipient outcome and on morbidity and safety for the donor. Despite continued advances in the technical outcomes of liver transplantation, recurrent viral disease and malignancy remain major challenges.

[Acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Diagnosis and management]

Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage calls for a team approach. Early endotracheal intubation of unconscious patients helps to prevent aspiration. Erythromycin i.v. 20 min. before emergency endoscopy improves the diagnostic yield. Patients without increased risk of rebleeding may be treated on an outpatient basis. Band ligation is the gold standard for acute variceal bleeding. Terlipressin, somatostatin and octreotide are equally effective but require additional measures for prevention of late recurrence. Somatostatin and analogues used as adjunct to ligation slightly reduce the risk of rebleeding but not of death. Three to seven days of prophylactic antibiotics decrease the risk of uncontrolled or recurrent bleeding. Therapeutic failures are rescued by transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting (TIPS). Patients with nonvaricose bleeding should only be treated when active hemorrhage or a "visible vessel" is found. First line treatment is endoscopic injection of diluted adrenalin or isotonic saline. Thermal coagulation is an alternative. Tissue-destructing sclerosants should be avoided. Clipping and injection of fibrin glue are second and third line measures. Proton pump inhibitors improve endoscopic hemostasis, however, it is unclear whether high i.v. doses are required. H. pylori must be eradicated to prevent late recurrence. Rebleeding is treated endoscopically with angiographic intervention or surgery as rescue measures.

Experiences with MARS liver support therapy in liver failure: analysis of 176 patients of the International MARS Registry

Extracorporeal liver support using the MARS recently has shown remarkable results in several trials. This study aims to extend the basis for analyses by making available the worldwide data with help of an international registry. One hundred and seventy six patients were analysed, main indications are acute-on-chronic liver failure (56%), acute liver failure (22%), primary graft dysfunction (15%), liver failure post liver surgery (4%) and miscellaneous (3%). The predicted survival within the first group based on a mean MELD score of 30.4 pts. and a mean Child score of 12.6 pts. was quite limited. The data suggest an improved survival accompanied by significant improvements of hepatic encephalopathy, mean arterial pressure, serum bilirubin level, creatinine, urea, albumin, INR, ammonia and MELD score. The results are confirming observations of other trials before which have shown MARS therapy to be an effective and safe extracorporeal liver support in liver failure.

First clinical experience with Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS) in six patients with severe acute on chronic liver failure

Despite recent advances in general supportive care, the mortality rate of patients with severe liver insufficiency remains high. Recently a new artificial liver support system MARS has been used for selective removal of albumin-bound toxins.

AIM

To assess the safety and efficacy of MARS treatment in patients with acute on chronic liver disease (n = 5) or liver failure after extended hepatic resection (n = 1).

DESIGN/PATIENTS

Six patients, aged 34-58 years, with severe liver insufficiency (mean MELD-score 31 (range 24-35)) were treated one to 16 times with the MARS system. At baseline three patients were intubated, three were encephalopathic (HE) and three had multifactorial kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

In all the patients MARS treatment significantly reduced the serum bilirubin levels. In three patients encephalopathy improved. In two patients the extracorporeal treatment precipitated a disseminated intravascular coagulation with clinically significant bleeding. Bridging to liver transplantation was possible in one patient, the other five patients died 30 days (2-74 days) after starting MARS therapy. Our case series shows that MARS treatment in general can be safely performed in patients with severe liver disease. However, in patients with an activated clotting system severe bleeding complication can be triggered and MARS treatment should be used very cautiously in these situations. MARS seems to be a promising new treatment option for patients with acute on chronic liver failure. However, carefully conducted randomized controlled trials are necessary to define its potential place in the treatment of patients with severe liver disease.

Emerging indications for MARS dialysis

MARS stands for Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System and represents an interesting option in treating patients with liver disease. There is still little known about the best time point of initiating this treatment and the exact selection criteria for patients who may benefit from this therapy. The list of potential applications using this procedure is expanding. We report on the experience in seven patients being treated with MARS dialysis for chronic cholestatic liver disease and acute on chronic liver failure. From August 2000 to October 2001 seven patients received 27 MARS treatments in our clinic, ranging from 2 to 12 treatments per subject. Presented cases were diagnosed as steatohepatitis because of alcoholism (n = 3), vanishing bile duct disease (n = 1), metabolic liver disease (n = 1), primary biliary cirrhosis (n = 1) and drug-induced hepatitis (n = 1). Based on this experience, we discuss the ongoing questions of various indications and the decision to initiate MARS dialysis.

The pathophysiological basis of acute-on-chronic liver failure

The vast majority of patients that are referred to a specialist hepatological centre suffer from acute deterioration of their chronic liver disease. Yet, this entity of acute-on-chronic liver failure remains poorly defined. With the emergence of newer liver support strategies, it has become necessary to define this entity, its pathophysiology and the short and long-term prognosis. This review focuses upon how a precipitant such as an episode of gastrointestinal bleeding or sepsis may start a cascade of events that culminate in end-organ dysfunction and liver failure. We briefly review the pathophysiological basis of the therapeutic modalities that are available. Our current strategy for the management of liver failure involves supportive therapy for the end-organs with the hope that the liver function would recover if sufficient time for such a recovery is allowed. Because liver failure, whether of the acute or acute-on-chronic variety, is potentially reversible, the stage is set for the application of newer liver support strategies to enhance the recovery process.

Effect of minimal listing criteria on waiting list registration for liver transplantation: a process-outcome analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the level of association between minimal listing criteria (MLC) recognition and outcomes associated with waiting list registration for liver transplantation (LT).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 147 patients and 201 patients were identified as first-time referrals for LT evaluation between January 1, 1997, and November 30, 1997 (cohort A), and December 1,1997, and December 31, 1998 (cohort B), respectively. Relevant demographic and clinical information was abstracted from medical records. Minimal listing criteria were defined as a Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score of 7 or higher.

RESULTS

Patient age, sex, hepatic disease etiology, and mean CTP scores were similar between cohorts A and B. However, the proportion of registered patients in cohort B with CTP scores of 7 or higher increased significantly after formal MLC recognition (96% vs 82% for cohort A; P=.001). In cohort A, waiting list registration was based on patient age, male sex, nonalcohol-related hepatic disease, and a CTP score of 7 or higher in the absence of formal MLC. The rate of first-time patient referral was also increased in cohort B vs cohort A after formal MLC recognition (80% vs 69%, respectively; P=.002) despite similar clinical characteristics. Although the number of patients with a CTP score of 10 or higher was greater in cohort B vs cohort A, the proportion of patients with advanced end-stage liver disease was similar (29% vs 26%, respectively; P=.72).

CONCLUSION

The explicit recognition of MLC was strongly associated with improvements in appropriate waiting list registration for LT.

Hemodynamic response to pharmacological treatment of portal hypertension and long-term prognosis of cirrhosis

In cirrhotic patients under pharmacologic treatment for portal hypertension, a reduction in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) of >or=20% of baseline or to <or=12 mm Hg markedly reduces the risk of variceal rebleeding. This study was aimed at evaluating whether these hemodynamic targets also prevent other complications of portal hypertension and improve long-term survival. One hundred five cirrhotic patients included in prospective trials for the prevention of variceal rebleeding were studied. Seventy-three of the patients had 2 separate HVPG measurements, at baseline and under pharmacologic therapy with propranolol +/- isosorbide mononitrate. Patients were followed for up to 8 years. Survival and risk of developing portal hypertension-related complications were compared between responders and nonresponders. Twenty-eight patients showed a reduction of HVPG >or=20% of baseline or to <or=12 mm Hg (responders), and 45 patients were nonresponders. Nonresponders had a significantly greater risk of developing variceal rebleeding (P =.013), ascites (P =.025), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (P =.003), hepatorenal syndrome (P =.026), and hepatic encephalopathy (P =.024) than responders. Eight-year cumulative probability of survival was significantly lower in nonresponders than in responders (52% vs. 95%, respectively, P =.003). At multivariate analysis, being a nonresponder was independently associated with the risk of developing rebleeding, ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and lower survival. In conclusion, in cirrhotic patients receiving pharmacologic treatment for prevention of variceal rebleeding, a decrease in HVPG >or=20% or to <or=12 mm Hg is associated with a marked reduction in the long-term risk of developing complications of portal hypertension and with improved survival.

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in asymptomatic outpatients with cirrhotic ascites

The prevalence and natural history of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in asymptomatic patients with ascites secondary to cirrhosis is unknown. From a prospectively recorded database, we reviewed the clinical and laboratory features of all outpatients with cirrhotic ascites undergoing paracentesis between July 1994 and December 2000. The prevalence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in the population of 427 cirrhotic outpatients as defined by neutrocytic ascites (absolute neutrophil count >or=250 cells/mm(3)) was 3.5%. Of the 15 patients with neutrocytic ascites, 6 were culture positive (1.4%) and 9 culture negative (2.1%). Eight other patients (1.9%) had bacterascites. The organisms cultured from ascitic fluid in these asymptomatic patients with culture positive neutrocytic ascites and bacterascites were predominantly gram positive. No patient developed hepatorenal syndrome, and 1-year survival of 67% was better than historical data from hospitalized patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. Moreover, patients who did not receive antibiotics for neutrocytic ascites fared no worse than patients who did receive antibiotics. In conclusion, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in outpatients with cirrhotic ascites is less frequent, occurs in patients with less advanced liver disease, and may have a better outcome than its counterpart in hospitalized patients. In addition, the organisms cultured from ascitic fluid in outpatients are predominantly gram positive. A reassessment of diagnostic criteria for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in outpatients may be required.

Predictive models of short- and long-term survival in patients with nonbiliary cirrhosis

The limited number of donor organs has placed a burden on the medical community to improve patient selection and timing of liver transplantation (LT). We aim to evaluate short- and long-term survival of 124 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of nonbiliary cirrhosis. Seventeen clinical, biochemical, functional, and hemodynamic parameters were computed. Patient survival was evaluated in the short term (3 months) by logistic regression, and the predictive power of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the log likelihood ratio. For the long-term (up to 5 years) prognosis, the Cox proportional model was used. During follow-up, 54 patients died and 20 patients underwent LT. In the short-term study, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (including bilirubin level, international normalized ratio [INR], and creatinine level) was as predictive as our score, which contained only two independent indicators (bilirubin and creatinine levels). In the long-term study, three independent variables (albumin level, INR, and creatinine level) emerged from the Cox model, and patients were classified into three survival-risk groups according to a prognostic index (PI): -1.039 x albumin (grams per deciliter) + 1.909 x log(e) INR + 1.207 x log(e) serum creatinine (milligrams per deciliter). Survival probabilities at 1 and 5 years were 89% and 80%, 63% and 52%, and 23% and 10% with a low, medium, and high PI, respectively. The validation study using the split-sample technique and data from independent patients confirmed that a high PI (>-2.5) identifies patients with a poor prognosis within 5 years. We thus have shown and validated that risk for death at the short and long term of patients with nonbiliary cirrhosis can be predicted with great accuracy using models containing a few simple and easily obtained objective variables, and these survival models are useful tools in clinical decision making, especially in deciding to list patients for LT and prioritization on the liver waiting list.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts: an update

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) have been used in the treatment of complications of portal hypertension. TIPS is used for the control of acute variceal bleeding and for the prevention of vericeal rebleeding when pharmacologic therapy and endoscopic therapy have failed. Patients with refractory ascites with adequate hepatic reserve and renal function who fail to respond to large volume paracentesis may be reasonable candidates for TIPS. Promising indications for TIPS are Budd-Chiari syndrome uncontrolled by medical therapy, severe portal hypertensive gastropathy, refractory hepatic hydrothorax, and hepatorenal syndrome. TIPS cannot be recommended for preoperative portal decompression solely to facilitate liver transplantation. Special care should be taken to insure proper placement of the stent to avoid increasing the technical difficulty of the transplantation procedure. The major limiting factors for TIPS success are shunt dysfunction and hepatic encephalopathy. Because shunt stenosis is the most important cause of recurrent complications of portal hypertension, a surveillance program to monitor shunt patency is mandatory. The MELD score may be useful in predicting post-TIPS survival, and also in counseling patients and their families.

MR imaging features of primary sclerosing cholangitis: patterns of cirrhosis in relationship to clinical severity of disease

PURPOSE

To evaluate the spectrum of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging appearances of the liver in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and to examine their correlation with clinical stage of disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fifty-two patients (25 female, 27 male; mean age, 43 years; age range, 11-87 years) with PSC underwent nonenhanced and gadolinium-enhanced MR imaging. Two abdominal radiologists retrospectively reviewed all images (independently and then in consensus) for the imaging pattern of the liver parenchyma, presence and grade of intrahepatic biliary ductal dilatation, and presence of areas of parenchymal atrophy or abnormal signal intensity and/or gadolinium enhancement. Imaging findings were correlated with Child class, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, and Mayo end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. Statistical analyses (kappa scoring for interobserver agreement, McNemar test, Mann-Whitney U test, multiple regression analysis, Spearman correlation) were performed.

RESULTS

Of 52 patients, seven (13%) had no imaging findings of cirrhosis, 17 (33%) had a diffuse pattern of cirrhosis, and 28 (54%) had a large macronodular pattern (with nodules >or=3 cm) (kappa = 0.84). Intrahepatic biliary ductal dilatation was observed in 44 (85%) patients and was general in 18 (35%) and segmental in 26 (50%). Peripheral wedge-shaped areas of parenchyma were observed with atrophy in 23 (44%) and 25 (48%) patients by the two readers (kappa = 0.76) and without atrophy in 18 (35%) patients by both readers (kappa = 1.00). No correlation was found between imaging findings and clinical scores (P >.05, multiple regression analysis; P =.25-.75, Mann-Whitney U test; Spearman correlation coefficients between -0.33 and 0.33).

CONCLUSION

The spectrum of MR imaging appearances of PSC is diverse and comprises distinct patterns that do not appear to correlate with severity of disease. Large regenerative nodules are a frequent finding and may help to establish the diagnosis.