Influence of socioeconomic factors on liver transplant survival outcomes in patients with autoimmune liver disease in the United States

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs): autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) have different survival outcomes after liver transplant (LT). Outcomes are influenced by factors including disease burden, medical comorbidities, and socioeconomic variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (UNOS), we identified 13,702 patients with AILDs listed for LT between 2002 and 2021. Outcomes of interest were waitlist removal, post-LT patient survival, and post- LT graft survival. A stepwise multivariate analysis was performed adjusting for transplant recipient gender, race, diabetes mellitus, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and additional social determinants including the presence of education, reliance on public insurance, working for income, and U.S. citizenship status.

RESULTS

Lack of college education and having public insurance increased the risk of waitlist removal (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.09; 95 % CI, 1.00-1.18; respectively), and negatively influenced post-LT patient survival (HR, 1.16; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.26, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively) and graft survival (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively). Not working for income proved to have the greatest detrimental impact on both patient survival (HR, 1.41; 95 % CI, 1.24-1.6) and graft survival (HR, 1.21; 95 % CI, 1.09-1.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights that lack of college education and public insurance have a detrimental impact on waitlist mortality, patient survival, and graft survival. Not working for income negatively affects post-LT survival outcomes. Not having U.S. citizenship does not affect survival outcomes in AILDs patients.

Enhanced liver fibrosis score as a surrogate of liver-related complications and mortality in primary biliary cholangitis

The presence of bridging fibrosis predicts survival of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). This study aimed to compare serum parameters for the estimation of liver fibrosis and prediction of clinical outcomes in PBC.Out of 392 patients with PBC, 102 who underwent liver biopsy and in whom fibrosis indices, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, type IV collagen 7 second domain, procollagen type III amino-terminal peptide, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1, Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer, N-terminal type III collagen propeptide levels; fibrosis index based on 4 factors, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, and enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score were determined, were included. The correlation of histological stages based on both Scheuer and Nakanuma classifications with fibrosis indices was investigated. The Nakanuma system comprises grading for liver fibrosis and bile duct loss. Diagnostic performances of 10 fibrosis indices were evaluated to identify patients with poor prognosis. Moreover, correlations of those with PBC clinical manifestation and survival were also investigated.Enhances liver fibrosis (ELF) score had the highest correlation coefficient for liver fibrosis evaluated according to either the Scheuer or Nakanuma classification among 10 serum fibrosis indices. It also had the highest diagnostic performance in estimating Scheuer stage III and Nakanuma fibrosis score 2, both of which represent portal-bridging fibrosis. Patients with an ELF score of ≥10.0 had shorter survival and presented more frequently clinical complications than those with an ELF score of <10.0.ELF score determines the severity of liver fibrosis and predicts the occurrence of complications and survival in patients with PBC.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Response Is Associated With Reduced Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis With Compensated Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with cirrhosis and men have been under-represented in most studies examining the clinical benefit of response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of this study was to study the association of UDCA response and liver-related death or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with PBC cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans, predominantly men, with PBC and compensated cirrhosis to assess the association of UDCA response with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and HCC using competing risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

We identified 501 subjects with PBC and compensated cirrhosis, including 287 UDCA responders (1,692.8 patient-years [PY] of follow-up) and 214 partial responders (838.9 PY of follow-up). The unadjusted rates of hepatic decompensation (3.8 vs 7.9 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) and liver-related death or transplantation (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) were lower in UDCA responders compared with partial responders. UDCA response was associated with a lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subhazard ratio [sHR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.95, P = 0.03), death from any cause or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.72, P = 0.0002), and liver-related death or transplantation (sHR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24-0.67, P = 0.0004), but not HCC (sHR 0.39, 95% CI 0.60-2.55, P = 0.32). In a sensitivity analysis, the presence of portal hypertension was associated with the highest UDCA-associated effect.

DISCUSSION

UDCA response is associated with a reduction in decompensation, all-cause, and liver-related death or transplantation in a cohort of predominantly male patients with cirrhosis, with the highest benefit in patients with portal hypertension.

Association of bezafibrate with transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A beneficial effect of bezafibrate (BZF) on symptoms and biochemical features of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been reported in patients with an incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), but long-term effects on survival remain unknown. In Japan, BZF has been used as a de facto second-line therapy for PBC since 2000. Herein, we compared the survival rates between patients treated with and those without BZF in a large nationwide Japanese PBC cohort.

METHODS

All consecutively registered patients of this cohort who started UDCA therapy from 2000 onwards and had a follow-up ≥1 year were included. Association between BZF exposure and mortality or need for liver transplantation (LT) was assessed using time-dependent, multivariable-and propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Clinical benefit was quantified using the number needed to treat (NNT).

RESULTS

Of 3,908 eligible patients, 3,162 (81%) received UDCA only and 746 (19%) UDCA and BZF over 17,360 and 3,932 patient-years, respectively. During follow-up, 183 deaths (89 liver-related) and 21 LT were registered. Exposure to combination therapy was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause and liver-related mortality or need for LT (adjusted hazard ratios: 0.3253, 95% CI 0.1936-0.5466 and 0.2748, 95% CI 0.1336-0.5655, respectively; p <0.001 for both). This association was consistent across various risk groups at baseline. The NNTs with combination therapy to prevent 1 additional death or LT over 5, 10, and 15 years were 29 (95% CI 22-46), 14 (10-22), and 8 (6-15), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large retrospective cohort study of treatment effects in patients with PBC, the addition of BZF to UDCA was associated with improved prognosis.

LAY SUMMARY

The long-term efficacy of bezafibrate (BZF) on liver transplantation (LT) - free survival in patients with PBC and an incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains to be determined. In this Japanese nationwide retrospective cohort study, the use of UDCA-BZF combination therapy, compared to UDCA alone, was associated with a lower risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality or need for LT. These results indicate that BZF is so far the only drug in PBC to have demonstrated efficacy in improving symptoms, biochemical markers, and long-term outcomes.

Diagnosis and treatment of primary biliary cholangitis

Primary biliary cholangitis is a cholestatic, chronic autoimmune liver disease with a wide individual variation in disease progression. The diagnosis is predominantly based on chronic elevation of alkaline phosphatase and the presence of anti-mitochondrial antibodies or other specific antinuclear antibodies (i.e. anti-gp210 and anti-sp100). Even in early-stage disease, health-related quality of life can be severely impaired by symptoms such as pruritus, fatigue, and sicca syndrome and metabolic bone disease should be assessed and treated. The prognosis of the disease is, however, largely determined by the development of cirrhosis and its complications. Ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with an improved prognosis and should be initiated and continued in all patients. Clinical outcome is related to the biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid, but the prognosis of those with an incomplete response is still better than those who remain untreated. Obeticholic acid was recently approved as second-line treatment and bezafibrate may serve as an adequate off-label alternative, particularly in patients with pruritus. Preliminary data suggest an additive effect of triple therapy with ursodeoxycholic acid, obeticholic acid, and bezafibrate, whereas other promising drugs are being evaluated in clinical trials.

Race/Ethnicity and Insurance-Specific Disparities in In-Hospital Mortality Among Adults with Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Analysis of 2007-2014 National Inpatient Sample

BACKGROUND

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a progressive autoimmune liver disease that can result in cirrhosis and end-stage liver disease.

AIMS

We aim to evaluate hospitalization burden and in-hospital mortality among PBC patients in the USA.

METHODS

Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2007 to 2014, hospitalizations among US adults with PBC were stratified by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. Overall in-hospital mortality was stratified by these variables and adjusted multivariate regression models evaluated for predictors of in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2014, there were 18,279 hospitalizations among adults with PBC (15.0% male, mean age 63.8 years, 41.3% cirrhosis). Among non-Hispanic whites, the proportion of total PBC hospitalizations increased from 57.8% in 2007 to 71.2% in 2014, compared to 4.1-6.3% for African-Americans, 8.6-10.9% for Hispanics, and 1.7-2.8% for Asians (p < 0.001 for all). While overall in-hospital mortality was low (4.2%), increasing age was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03, p < 0.001). Compared to non-Hispanic white PBC patients, higher in-hospital mortality was observed in African-American PBC patients (OR: 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-2.03, p < 0.05). Compared to patients with private/commercial insurance, significantly higher odds of in-hospital mortality were observed in patients with Medicaid insurance (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.00-1.99, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In summary, among adults with PBC hospitalized in the USA from 2007 to 2014, the overall number of hospitalizations is increasing. Significant disparities in in-hospital mortality were observed; African-Americans with PBC and Medicaid patients with PBC have disproportionately higher odds of in-hospital mortality.

Testing causal effects in observational survival data using propensity score matching design

Time-to-event data are very common in observational studies. Unlike randomized experiments, observational studies suffer from both observed and unobserved confounding biases. To adjust for observed confounding in survival analysis, the commonly used methods are the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model, the weighted logrank test, and the inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox PH model. These methods do not rely on fully parametric models, but their practical performances are highly influenced by the validity of the PH assumption. Also, there are few methods addressing the hidden bias in causal survival analysis. We propose a strategy to test for survival function differences based on the matching design and explore sensitivity of the P-values to assumptions about unmeasured confounding. Specifically, we apply the paired Prentice-Wilcoxon (PPW) test or the modified PPW test to the propensity score matched data. Simulation studies show that the PPW-type test has higher power in situations when the PH assumption fails. For potential hidden bias, we develop a sensitivity analysis based on the matched pairs to assess the robustness of our finding, following Rosenbaum's idea for nonsurvival data. For a real data illustration, we apply our method to an observational cohort of chronic liver disease patients from a Mayo Clinic study. The PPW test based on observed data initially shows evidence of a significant treatment effect. But this finding is not robust, as the sensitivity analysis reveals that the P-value becomes nonsignificant if there exists an unmeasured confounder with a small impact.

Underestimated Male Prevalence of Primary Biliary Cholangitis in China: Results of a 16-yr cohort study involving 769 patients

For primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), a sex ratio was reported to be significantly lower than previously cited in the West; we sought to evaluate sex ratio and long-term outcomes in PBC by studying a PBC cohort at a high-volume hospital from January 2001 to July 2016. A retrospective analysis including 769 PBC patients was conducted. The gender ratio was 6.1:1. Of the patients, 30.6% had one or more extrahepatic autoimmune (EHA) conditions. The proportion of patients with decompensated PBC at diagnosis increased from 25.0% in period 1 to 47.0% in period 4 (p < 0.05). Of the 420 patients without complications on presentation, the Kaplan-Meier estimate revealed distinct outcomes between non-cirrhotic PBC and cirrhotic PBC, with estimated mean survival times of 145.1 months and 104.5 months, respectively (p < 0.001). According to a subgroup analysis, gender and anti-mitochondrial antibody (AMA) status did not affect long-term prognosis, whereas patients with EHA conditions showed better prognoses. This study reveals evolving trends in male prevalence similar to their Western counterparts. Cirrhotic PBC patients were distinct from those with non-cirrhotic PBC at diagnosis based on difference in long-term outcome.

Autoimmune liver diseases in the Asia-Pacific region: Proceedings of APASL symposium on AIH and PBC 2016

During the 25th annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL 2016) in Tokyo, we organized and moderated an inaugural satellite symposium on the autoimmune liver diseases, autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Following the keynote lecture by John M. Vierling (USA), speakers from the Asia-Pacific region provided an up-to-date perspective on the epidemiology, clinical practice and research in AIH and PBC in the Asia-Pacific region. Although epidemiology and clinical features of AIH seem to be similar in East Asia compared to those in western countries, the majority of patients with AIH are detected at an advanced stage and have higher mortality rates in South Asia, indicating an unmet need for earlier diagnosis and the initiation of appropriate immunosuppressive treatment. PBC is more commonly seen in Australia and East Asia. As of 2016, clinical practice guidelines (CPG) for PBC have been published in Japan and China. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is recommended as a first-line therapy by both CPG. Nevertheless, one of the unmet therapeutic needs in PBC is the treatment of patients refractory to or intolerant of UDCA. It is of interest that the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in PBC patients was low in Taiwan and mainland China where the prevalence of CHB is very high. In this review, we overview this exciting and epoch-making symposium.

Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship

Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

Increased Risks of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis and Interstitial Lung Disease in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Patients With Concomitant Sjögren Syndrome

The incidence of Sjögren syndrome (SS) in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) patients is high. The influence of SS on the clinical outcomes of PBC patients, however, remains unclear. Our study retrospectively collected data on PBC-only patients and PBC patients with concomitant SS (PBC-SS) to compare the clinical differences of long-term outcomes between them.A total of 183 patients were diagnosed with PBC from January 1999 to December 2014 at our hospital. Of these, the authors excluded patients with diabetes, hypertension, advanced liver cirrhosis at initial diagnosis of PBC (Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification score of ≥7) and other liver diseases (ie, alcoholic liver disease, alpha-antitrypsin deficiency, viral hepatitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis), and autoimmune diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis. Of the remaining 125 patients, 77 (61.6%) were PBC-only and 48 (38.4%) were PBC-SS patients.The mean follow-up duration was 8.76 years. During the observation period, the incidence of interstitial lung disease was higher in the PBC-SS group than in the PBC-only group (P = 0.005). The occurrence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis was significantly different in PBC-SS patients than in PBC-only patients (P = 0.002). The overall survival was lower in PBC-SS patients than in PBC-only patients (P = 0.033). Although the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma, end-stage renal disease, variceal bleeding, and hypothyroidism were all higher in the PBC-SS group than in the PBC-only group, the differences were not significant.Our study suggests that PBC-SS patients have a higher risk of developing interstitial lung disease and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and have a poor prognosis. Aggressive surveillance of thyroid and pulmonary functions should therefore be performed in these patients.

[The clinical analysis of orthotopic liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the clinical outcome and complications of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis(PBC).

METHODS

Clinical data of 25 patients with PBC who underwent OLT were analyzed retrospectively. The postoperative cumulative survival rate of the patients was calculated. The postoperative recurrence of PBC, de novo diseases and other complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 25 patients were recruited including 22 females and 3 males. The average age was 49.1 years (range from 40 to 64 years). The score of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 21.80±5.49, and the Mayo score 8.01±1.38. Four patients died after liver transplantation. The 1-year, 2-year and 7-year patient cumulative survival rates were 92.0%, 87.8% and 75.3%, respectively. Eight cases (32.0%) developed recurrent PBC based on histological evidence. The median time to recurrence was 17.5 months. One of the eight patients with recurrent PBC was diagnosed with de novo auto-immune hepatitis (AIH) simultaneously, who eventually died. Acute rejection and de novo hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection developed in thirteen (52.0%) patients and five (20.0%) patients, respectively. Two cases (8.0%) of de novo AIH were diagnosed, one of which was fatal.

CONCLUSIONS

OLT is an effective procedure for end-stage PBC. Much attention needs to be paid to the post-transplantation complications, including recurrence of primary disease, combined de novo HBV infection, de novo AIH, etc.

Systematic review and meta-analysis: bezafibrate in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the standard treatment for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), but not all cases respond well. Evidence has shown that combination therapy of UDCA with bezafibrate significantly improved liver function. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the efficacy and safety of UDCA and bezafibrate combination therapy in the treatment of PBC.

RESULTS

Nine trials, with a total of 269 patients, were included in the analysis. The bias risk of these trials was high. Compared with UDCA alone, the combination with bezafibrate improved the Mayo risk score (mean difference [MD], 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.95; P=0.0008) and liver biochemistry: alkaline phosphatase (MD, -238.21 IU/L; 95% CI, -280.83 to -195.60; P<0.00001); gamma-glutamyltransferase (MD, -38.23 IU/L; 95% CI, -50.16 to -25.85; P<0.00001); immunoglobulin M (MD, -128.63 IU/L; 95% CI, -151.55 to -105.71; P<0.00001); bilirubin (MD, -0.20 mg/dL; 95% CI, -0.33 to -0.07; P=0.002); triglycerides (MD, -26.84 mg/dL; 95% CI, -36.51 to -17.17; P<0.0001); total cholesterol (MD, -21.58 mg/dL; 95% CI, -30.81 to -12.34; P<0.0001), and serum alanine aminotransferase (MD, -10.24 IU/L; 95% CI, -12.65 to -78.5; P<0.00001). However, combination therapy showed no significant differences in the incidence of all-cause mortality or pruritus, and may have resulted in more adverse events (risk ratio [RR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.07-0.67; P=0.008).

CONCLUSION

Combination therapy improved liver biochemistry and the prognosis of PBC, but did not improve clinical symptoms or incidence of death. Attention should be paid to adverse events when using bezafibrate.

Checking Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model with cumulative sums of residuals

Recently, Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496-509, 1999) proposed a semi-parametric proportional regression model for the subdistribution hazard function which has been used extensively for analyzing competing risks data. However, failure of model adequacy could lead to severe bias in parameter estimation, and only a limited contribution has been made to check the model assumptions. In this paper, we present a class of analytical methods and graphical approaches for checking the assumptions of Fine and Gray's model. The proposed goodness-of-fit test procedures are based on the cumulative sums of residuals, which validate the model in three aspects: (1) proportionality of hazard ratio, (2) the linear functional form and (3) the link function. For each assumption testing, we provide a p-values and a visualized plot against the null hypothesis using a simulation-based approach. We also consider an omnibus test for overall evaluation against any model misspecification. The proposed tests perform well in simulation studies and are illustrated with two real data examples.

Late biliary complications in human alveolar echinococcosis are associated with high mortality

AIM: To evaluate the incidence of late biliary complications in non-resectable alveolar echinococcosis (AE) under long-term chemotherapy with benzimidazoles.

METHODS: Retrospective analysis of AE patients with biliary complications occurring more than three years after the diagnosis of AE. We compared characteristics of patients with and without biliary complications, analyzed potential risk factor for biliary complications and performed survival analyses.

RESULTS: Ninety four of 148 patients with AE in Zurich had non-resectable AE requiring long-term benzimidazole chemotherapy, of which 26 (28%) patients developed late biliary complications. These patients had a median age of 55.5 (35.5-65) years at diagnosis of AE and developed biliary complications after 15 (8.25-19) years of chemotherapy. The most common biliary complications during long-term chemotherapy were late-onset cholangitis (n = 14), sclerosing cholangitis-like lesions (n = 8), hepatolithiasis (n = 5), affection of the common bile duct (n = 7) and secondary biliary cirrhosis (n = 7). Thirteen of the 26 patients had undergone surgery (including 12 resections) before chemotherapy. Previous surgery was a risk factor for late biliary complications in linear regression analysis (P = 0.012).

CONCLUSION: Late biliary complications can be observed in nearly one third of patients with non-resectable AE, with previous surgery being a potential risk factor. After the occurrence of late biliary complications, the median survival is only 3 years, suggesting that late biliary complications indicate a poor prognostic outcome.

Waiting list mortality of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis in the Japanese transplant allocation system

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to evaluate etiology-based differences in the risk of waiting list mortality, and to compare the current Japanese transplant allocation system with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring systems with regard to the risk of waiting list mortality in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC).

METHODS

Using data derived from all adult candidates for deceased donor liver transplantation in Japan from 1997 to 2011, we assessed factors associated with waiting list mortality by the Cox proportional hazards model. The waiting list mortality risk of PBC patients was further estimated with adjustment for each scoring system.

RESULTS

Of the 1056 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 743 were not on the list at the end of study period; waiting list mortality was 58.1 % in this group. In multivariate analysis, increasing age and PBC were significantly associated with an increased risk of waiting list mortality. In comparison with patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, PBC patients were at 79 % increased risk and had a shorter median survival time by approximately 8 months. The relative hazard of PBC patients was statistically significant with adjustment for CTP score and medical point score, which was the priority for ranking candidates in the Japanese allocation system. However, it lost significance with adjustment for MELD score. Stratification by MELD score indicated a comparable waiting list survival time between patients with PBC and HCV.

CONCLUSIONS

PBC patients are at high risk of waiting list mortality in the current allocation system. MELD-based allocation could reduce this risk.

[Primary biliary cirrhosis: clinical and epidemiological features in an Uruguayan population]

INTRODUCTION

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic, autoimmune, liver disease produced by inflammation and destruction of the interlobular bile ducts. It is more frequent among female patients and is usually diagnosed in the fifth decade of life.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients with PBC in Uruguay.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This descriptive study included patients from 3 medical centers diagnosed with PBC in the period January 2002 to September 2011. The diagnosis was based on the presence of at least two of the following requirements: cholestasis, antimitochondrial antibodies (AMA) (or AMA subtype 2) or positive antinuclear antibodies (ANA) (anticentromere pattern) and compatible biopsy. Data recorded were sex, age, symptoms, related illness, laboratory results, images and histology at the moment of the diagnosis.

RESULTS

We included 81 patients, 94% were women and the mean age was 56 years old (range: 31 to 79 years old). Symptoms were present in 59 patients (73%) and pruritus, found in 51 of them (86%), was the most frequent symptom. Positive AMA was found in 84% of cases. Histological study was available in 35 patients (43%) and 13 of them (37%) had cirrhosis. The mean survival according to the presence or absence of cirrhosis was 9.17 years (95% confidence interval: 6.79-11.56) and 10.7 years (95% confidence interval: 9.27-12.14), respectively (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Female predominance and frequent association with other autoimmune diseases were confirmed in this group. Although there was a high percentage of symptomatic and cirrhotic patients at diagnosis, only the presence of cirrhosis was associated with a lower survival.

Risk factors for hepatic decompensation in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis

AIM: To examine the clinical features and analyze prognostic factors in a prospective study of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) patients.

METHODS: From 1995 to 2010, PBC patients without hepatic decompensation seen at the Peking Union Medical College Hospital were enrolled. Clinical signs and manifestations (pruritus, persistent fatigue, jaundice and pain in the right hypochondrium), laboratory parameters (auto-antibodies for autoimmune hepatic disease, biliary and hepatic enzymes, immunoglobulin, bilirubin, and albumin) and imaging findings were recorded at entry and at specific time points during follow-up. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses, respectively, assessed the risk factors for hepatic decompensation and survival.

RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-two PBC patients were enrolled with a median follow-up of 75.2 mo (range, 21-201 mo). The 240 patients were aged 51.5 ± 10.2 years at diagnosis and 91.6% were female. Two hundred and forty-five (93.5%) were seropositive for anti-mitochondrial antibodies. At presentation, 170 patients (64.9%) were symptomatic, while 96 patients (36.6%) had extra-hepatic autoimmune disease. During the follow-up period, 62 (23.7%) patients developed hepatic decompensation of whom four underwent liver transplantation and 17 died. The cumulative survival rate and median survival time were 83.9% and 181.7 mo, respectively. Cox regression analysis revealed that an incomplete ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) response or inconsistent treatment [P < 0.001; hazard risk (HR) 95%CI = 2.423-7.541], anti-centromere antibodies (ACA) positivity (P < 0.001; HR 95%CI = 2.516-7.137), alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR) elevations (P < 0.001; HR 95%CI = 1.357-2.678), and histological advanced liver disease (P = 0.006; HR 95%CI = 1.481-10.847) were predictors of hepatic decompensation. The clinical features and survival of PBC in China are consistent with those described in Western countries.

CONCLUSION: Incomplete UDCA response or inconsistent treatment, ACA positivity, AAR elevations, and advanced histological stage are predictors of decompensation.

Risk factors for survival and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

Early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is critical in the management of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), since the prognosis of PBC has improved. The aim of this study was to investigate whether HCC development affects the prognosis of PBC and to identify the risk factors for HCC in Japanese patients with PBC.

METHODS

We compared the survival rates between patients with HCC and those without and analyzed the risk factors for HCC development in 210 patients with PBC who were followed up for a median period of 8.5 years.

RESULTS

HCC developed during follow-up in 11 patients (5.2%) and was diagnosed simultaneously at the time of diagnosis of PBC in five patients (2.4%) who were excluded from the analysis. A Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant difference in overall survival between the patients who did and did not develop HCC (p<0.001). A multivariate analysis revealed age (OR: 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.13, p=0.001), the albumin level (OR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.10-0.56, p=0.001), the total bilirubin level (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.09-2.36, p=0.017) and HCC development (OR: 2.97, 95% CI: 1.24-7.15, p=0.015) to be significant prognostic factors and identified only an advanced histological stage (Scheuer's classification III or IV, OR: 6.27, 95% CI: 1.80-21.83, p=0.004) to be a risk factor associated with HCC.

CONCLUSION

HCC development significantly affects the survival of patients with PBC, and an advanced histological stage is the only risk factor associated with HCC development. These results highlight the important role of liver fibrosis in hepatocarcinogenesis in patients with PBC.

Ursodeoxycholic acid for primary biliary cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Ursodeoxycholic acid is administered to patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, a chronic progressive inflammatory autoimmune-mediated liver disease with unknown aetiology. Despite its controversial effects, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved its usage for primary biliary cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of ursodeoxycholic acid in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched for eligible randomised trials in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, Clinicaltrials.gov, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. The literature search was performed until January 2012.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials assessing the beneficial and harmful effects of ursodeoxycholic acid versus placebo or 'no intervention' in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently extracted data. Continuous data were analysed using mean difference (MD) and standardised mean difference (SMD). Dichotomous data were analysed using risk ratio (RR). Meta-analyses were conducted using both a random-effects model and a fixed-effect model, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Random-effects model meta-regression was used to assess the effects of covariates across the trials. Trial sequential analysis was used to assess risk of random errors (play of chance). Risks of bias (systematic error) in the included trials were assessed according to Cochrane methodology bias domains.

MAIN RESULTS

Sixteen randomised clinical trials with 1447 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis were included. One trial had low risk of bias, and the remaining fifteen had high risk of bias. Fourteen trials compared ursodeoxycholic acid with placebo and two trials compared ursodeoxycholic acid with 'no intervention'. The percentage of patients with advanced primary biliary cirrhosis at baseline varied from 15% to 83%, with a median of 51%. The duration of the trials varied from 3 to 92 months, with a median of 24 months. The results showed no significant difference in effect between ursodeoxycholic acid and placebo or 'no intervention' on all-cause mortality (45/699 (6.4%) versus 46/692 (6.6%); RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.42, I² = 0%; 14 trials); on all-cause mortality or liver transplantation (86/713 (12.1%) versus 89/706 (12.6%); RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.25, I² = 15%; 15 trials); on serious adverse events (94/695 (13.5%) versus 107/687 (15.6%); RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.12, I² = 23%; 14 trials); or on non-serious adverse events (27/643 (4.2%) versus 18/634 (2.8%); RR 1.46, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.56, I² = 0%; 12 trials). The random-effects model meta-regression showed that the risk of bias of the trials, disease severity of patients at entry, ursodeoxycholic acid dosage, and trial duration were not significantly associated with the intervention effects on all-cause mortality, or on all-cause mortality or liver transplantation. Ursodeoxycholic acid did not influence the number of patients with pruritus (168/321 (52.3%) versus 166/309 (53.7%); RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.09, I² = 0%; 6 trials) or with fatigue (170/252 (64.9%) versus 174/244 (71.3%); RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.00, I² = 62%; 4 trials). Two trials reported the number of patients with jaundice and showed a significant effect of ursodeoxycholic acid versus placebo or no intervention in a fixed-effect meta-analysis (5/99 (5.1%) versus 15/99 (15.2%); RR 0.35, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.90, I² = 51%; 2 trials). The result was not supported by the random-effects meta-analysis (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.06 to 4.95). Portal pressure, varices, bleeding varices, ascites, and hepatic encephalopathy were not significantly affected by ursodeoxycholic acid. Ursodeoxycholic acid significantly decreased serum bilirubin concentration (MD -8.69 µmol/l, 95% CI -13.90 to -3.48, I² = 0%; 881 patients; 9 trials) and activity of serum alkaline phosphatases (MD -257.09 U/L, 95% CI -306.25 to -207.92, I² = 0%; 754 patients, 9 trials) compared with placebo or no intervention. These results were supported by trial sequential analysis. Ursodeoxycholic acid also seemed to improve serum levels of gamma-glutamyltransferase, aminotransferases, total cholesterol, and plasma immunoglobulin M concentration. Ursodeoxycholic acid seemed to have a beneficial effect on worsening of histological stage (random; 66/281 (23.5%) versus 103/270 (38.2%); RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.88, I² = 35%; 7 trials).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review did not demonstrate any significant benefits of ursodeoxycholic acid on all-cause mortality, all-cause mortality or liver transplantation, pruritus, or fatigue in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Ursodeoxycholic acid seemed to have a beneficial effect on liver biochemistry measures and on histological progression compared with the control group. All but one of the included trials had high risk of bias, and there are risks of outcome reporting bias and risks of random errors as well. Randomised trials with low risk of bias and low risks of random errors examining the effects of ursodeoxycholic acid for primary biliary cirrhosis are needed.

Primary biliary cirrhosis in Southern Israel: a 20 year follow up study

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) in Israel is unknown. We aimed to determine the epidemiology, long-term survival and outcomes of PBC in Southern Israel from 1990 to 2010.

METHODS

Case-finding methods and population-based administrative data were used to estimate and evaluate the incidence, prevalence and prognostic factors of outcome in our PBC cohort.

RESULTS

138 cases of PBC were identified. The average annual prevalence of PBC was 255 cases per million. The overall age/sex-adjusted annual incidence of PBC was 10 cases per million from 1990 through 1999 and 20 cases per million from 2000 to 2010. Among 138 incident cases with a total follow-up of 960 persons-years from diagnosis, 30 patients (21.7%) died. Survival in PBC patients was significantly lower than that of the age/sex-matched Israeli population. Mortality was significantly increased in patients with an initial MELD score greater than 8 (P<0.001), with portal hypertension (P<0.001), and in non-responders to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) therapy according to Barcelona criteria (P=0.005). Out of 138 patients, 95 patients (68.0%) responded to UDCA therapy according to Barcelona and Paris criteria. None of the responders died during the follow-up period as opposed to 30 out of 43 (69.8%) of non-responders. In multivariate analysis the factors associated with response to UDCA were: albumin levels above 3.5 g/dL (P<0.001) and lower degree of fibrosis per liver biopsy (P=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

This study addresses the increasing burden of PBC in Israel and confirms the importance of some clinical and therapeutic factors as predictors of long-term prognosis.

Hormone replacement for osteoporosis in women with primary biliary cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Women with primary biliary cirrhosis often suffer from postmenopausal osteoporosis due to their age, or osteoporosis secondary to their liver disease, or treatments provided for their liver disease. Hormone replacement increases bone mineral density and reduces fractures in postmenopausal women. On the other hand, hormone replacement increases the risk of various adverse events. We could not identify any meta-analyses or systematic reviews on hormone replacement in women with primary biliary cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of hormone replacement for osteoporosis in women with primary biliary cirrhosis.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, clinicaltrials.gov, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and full text searches were conducted until November 2011. Manufacturers and authors were contacted during the review conductance.

SELECTION CRITERIA

All randomised clinical trials of hormone replacement in primary biliary cirrhosis administered by any route, or regimen, or dose compared with placebo or no intervention.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors extracted data. RevMan Analysis was used for statistical analysis of dichotomous data with risk ratio (RR) or risk difference (RD) and of continuous data with mean difference (MD), all with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Methodological domains were used to assess risk of systematic errors (bias). Trial sequential analysis was used to control for random errors (play of chance).

MAIN RESULTS

Two trials with 49 participants were included. One trial had low risk of bias. The other trial had high risk of bias. Hormone replacement had no effect on all-cause mortality (RD 0.00; 95% CI -0.11 to 0.11, I² = 0%) and fractures (RD -0.08; 95% CI -0.24 to 0.07, I² = 0%). Hormone replacement significantly increased adverse events and number of patients having hormone replacement withdrawn due to adverse events (RR 5.26; 95% CI 1.26 to 22.04, I² = 0%). Hormone replacement had no significant effect on lumbar spine bone mineral density (MD 1.25 g/cm² yearֿ¹; 95% CI -0.91 to 3.42, I² = 0%). On the other hand, a significant increase in proximal femur bone mineral density was observed in the control group (MD 2.24 g/cm² yearֿ¹; 95% CI 0.74 to 3.74, I² = 0%). Hormone replacement had no significant effect on liver-related mortality, liver transplantation, or liver-related morbidity. Hormone replacement had no significant effect on serum bilirubin concentration (MD 4.60 µmol/L; 95% CI -3.42 to 12.62, I² = 0%).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We did not find evidence to support the use of hormone replacement for women with primary biliary cirrhosis. It seems that hormone replacement is connected with a significant increase in the occurrence of adverse events.

Methotrexate for primary biliary cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Methotrexate has been used to treat patients with primary biliary cirrhosis as it possesses immunosuppressive properties. The previously prepared version of this review from 2005 showed that methotrexate seemed to significantly increase mortality in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Since that last review version, follow-up data of the included trials have been published.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of methotrexate for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Randomised clinical trials were identified by searching The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, and EMBASE (from their inception until September 2009). Reference lists were also read through. Authors of trials were contacted.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We searched to include randomised clinical trials comparing methotrexate with placebo, no intervention, or another drug irrespective of blinding, language, year of publication, or publication status.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Our primary outcomes were mortality, and mortality or liver transplantation combined. Dichotomous outcomes were reported as relative risks (RR) and hazard ratios (HR) if applicable. Continuous outcomes were reported as mean differences (MD).

MAIN RESULTS

Five trials were included. Four trials with 370 patients compared methotrexate with placebo or no intervention (three trials added an equal dose of ursodeoxycholic acid to the intervention groups). The bias risk of these trials was high. We did not find statistically significant effects of methotrexate on mortality (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.64), mortality or liver transplantation combined, pruritus, fatigue, liver complications, liver biochemistry, liver histology, or adverse events. The pruritus score (MD - 0.17, 95% CI - 0.25 to - 0.09) was significantly lower in patients receiving methotrexate. The prothrombin time was significantly worsened in patients receiving methotrexate (MD 1.60 s, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.02). One trial with 85 patients compared methotrexate with colchicine. The trial had low risk of bias. Methotrexate, when compared to colchicine, did not significantly effect mortality, fatigue, liver biopsy, or adverse events. Methotrexate significantly benefited pruritus score (MD - 0.68, 95% CI - 1.11 to - 0.25), serum alkaline phosphatases (MD - 0.41 U/l, 95% CI - 0.70 to - 0.12), and plasma immunoglobulin M (MD - 0.47 mg/dl, 95% CI - 0.74 to - 0.20) compared with colchicine. Other outcomes showed no statistical difference.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Methotrexate had no statistically significant effect on mortality in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis nor the need for liver transplantation. Although methotrexate may benefit other outcomes (pruritus score, serum alkaline phosphatase, immunoglobulin M levels), there is no sufficient evidence to support methotrexate for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

The additive hazards model with high-dimensional regressors

This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study the partial least squares regression method. It turns out that it is naturally adapted to this setting via the so-called Krylov sequence. The resulting PLS estimator is shown to be consistent provided that the number of terms included is taken to be equal to the number of relevant components in the regression model. A standard PLS algorithm can also be constructed, but it turns out that the resulting predictor can only be related to the original covariates via time-dependent coefficients. The methods are applied to a breast cancer data set with gene expression recordings and to the well known primary biliary cirrhosis clinical data.

Ursodeoxycholic acid for primary biliary cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Primary biliary cirrhosis is an uncommon autoimmune liver disease with unknown aetiology. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) has been used for primary biliary cirrhosis, but the effects remain controversial.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the benefits and harms of UDCA on patients with primary biliary cirrhosis against placebo or no intervention.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials on The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCI-EXPANDED, The Chinese Biomedical CD Database, LILACS, and the references of identified studies. The last search was performed in January 2007.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials evaluating UDCA versus placebo or no intervention in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

The primary outcomes were mortality and mortality or liver transplantation. Binary outcomes were reported as odds ratio (OR) or relative risk (RR) and continuous outcomes as weighted mean difference, all with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Meta-regression was used to investigate the associations between UDCA effects and quality of the trial, UDCA dose, trial duration, and patient's severity of primary biliary cirrhosis. We also used Bayesian meta-analytic approach to estimate the UDCA effect as sensitivity analysis.

MAIN RESULTS

Sixteen randomised clinical trials evaluating UDCA against placebo or no intervention were identified. Data from three trials have been updated. Nearly half of the trials had high risk of bias. The combined results demonstrated no significant effects favouring UDCA on mortality (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.42) and mortality or liver transplantation (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.21). The findings were supported by the Bayesian meta-analyses. UDCA did not improve pruritus, fatigue, autoimmune conditions, liver histology, or portal pressure. UDCA seemed to improve biochemical variables, like serum bilirubin, ascites, and jaundice, but the findings were based on few trials with sparse data. The use of UDCA is significantly associated with adverse events, mainly weight gain.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review did not demonstrate any benefit of UDCA on mortality and mortality or liver transplantation of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. The few beneficial effects could not be due to random errors or outcome reporting bias.

Mayo risk score for primary biliary cirrhosis: a useful tool for the prediction of course after liver transplantation?

BACKGROUND

Survival after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is excellent. In order to define the optimal time point for OLT, the Mayo risk score (MRS) was developed and a score of 7.8 was identified for transplantation. However, in reality most recipients are in a bad condition with a MRS above 7.8. So far it is still unknown if a higher score is associated with more complications after OLT perioperatively and in a long-term follow-up. Therefore, this study was designed to investigate the association of the MRS score with postoperative survival and complications.

MATERIAL/METHODS

Between 1989 and 2006, 115 patients were transplanted for histologically proven PBC at the Charité Campus Virchow Clinic. In 98 of these patients, MRS data was available and retrospectively analyzed. Median age of 87 women and 11 men was 54 years (25 to 66 years).

RESULTS

The median follow-up after liver transplantation was 109 months (0.5-205 months). Actuarial patient survival after 5, 10 and 15 years was 90%, 88%, and 83%. Calculated survival by MRS without transplantation after 1, 5 and 7 years was 20%, 2% and 1% for these patients. Twelve patients (12%) died and histological recurrence of PBC was detected in 14 patients (14%). Seven patients underwent retransplantation (7%) and 58 patients developed an acute rejection episode (59%). Mean MRS was in all patients 9.54+/-1.35 and did not differ between patients with lethal course, retransplantations, PBC recurrence, rejection episodes and duration of hospital stay. Classification of all patients into a low (<8.5), middle (8.5-10) and high MRS score (>10) did not show a significant difference in long-term survival. Univariate analysis for identifying the level of MRS as risk for death, PBC-recurrence, retransplantation, acute rejection episodes and hospital stay only showed a significant increased risk for acute rejection episodes (1 episode = 0.04; 2 episodes = 0.01) for patients with a MRS above 8.5.

CONCLUSIONS

The Mayo risk score is an approved mathematical model predicting survival in non-transplanted patients suffering from PBC. However, the score did not predict the course of our liver transplanted patients in a long-term follow-up. We could not demonstrate a reduced patient survival at a median MRS of 9.4 and about 10.0. Therefore, it is, from our point of view, questionable if the optimal time point for OLT is still 7.8.

Influence of ursodeoxycholic acid on the mortality and malignancy associated with primary biliary cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study

There is debate over the mortality and malignancy risk in people with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and whether this risk is reduced by use of ursodeoxycholic acid. To investigate this issue, we identified 930 people with PBC and 9,202 control subjects from the General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom. We categorized regular ursodeoxycholic acid as treatment with 6 or more prescriptions and nonregular treatment as less than 6. We found a 2.7-fold increase in mortality for the PBC cohort compared with the general population [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 2.69; 95% CI, 2.35-3.09]. In those having regular ursodeoxycholic acid (43%), the mortality increase was 2.2-fold (HR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.66-2.87) and in those not treated 2.7-fold (HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 2.18-3.33). This apparent reduction in mortality was not explained by less severe disease in the ursodeoxycholic acid-treated group. The increased risk of primary liver cancer in ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients was 3-fold (HR, 3.17; 95% CI, 0.64-15.62), in contrast to an 8-fold increase in those not treated (HR, 7.77; 95% CI, 1.30-46.65).

CONCLUSION

We found that people with PBC had a 3-fold mortality increase when compared with the general population, which was somewhat reduced by regular treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. However, the observed effect of ursodeoxycholic acid was not statistically significant.

Modeling longitudinal data with nonparametric multiplicative random effects jointly with survival data

In clinical studies, longitudinal biomarkers are often used to monitor disease progression and failure time. Joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has certain advantages and has emerged as an effective way to mutually enhance information. Typically, a parametric longitudinal model is assumed to facilitate the likelihood approach. However, the choice of a proper parametric model turns out to be more elusive than models for standard longitudinal studies in which no survival endpoint occurs. In this article, we propose a nonparametric multiplicative random effects model for the longitudinal process, which has many applications and leads to a flexible yet parsimonious nonparametric random effects model. A proportional hazards model is then used to link the biomarkers and event time. We use B-splines to represent the nonparametric longitudinal process, and select the number of knots and degrees based on a version of the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Unknown model parameters are estimated through maximizing the observed joint likelihood, which is iteratively maximized by the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Due to the simplicity of the model structure, the proposed approach has good numerical stability and compares well with the competing parametric longitudinal approaches. The new approach is illustrated with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) data, aiming to capture nonlinear patterns of serum bilirubin time courses and their relationship with survival time of PBC patients.

Long-term survival and impact of ursodeoxycholic acid treatment for recurrent primary biliary cirrhosis after liver transplantation

The recurrence of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) in the hepatic allograft may impact patient and graft survival with long-term follow-up. The efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) for treatment of recurrent PBC after liver transplantation (LT) remains less well known. The aims of this study were as follows: 1) to determine the significance of recurrent PBC on overall survival among PBC patients who underwent LT, and 2) to determine the efficacy of UDCA treatment after LT in patients with recurrent PBC. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 154 PBC patients who underwent LT with at least 1 yr of follow-up after transplantation from 1985 through 2005. A total of 52 patients with recurrent PBC were identified. After adjusting for age and gender, recurrent PBC was not associated with death or liver retransplantation (hazard ratio, 0.97, 95% confidence interval, 0.41-2.31; P = 0.9). A total of 38 patients with recurrent PBC received UDCA at an average dose of 12 mg/kg/day for a mean duration of 55 months. Over a 36-month period, an estimated 52% of UDCA-treated patients experienced normalization of serum alkaline phosphatase and alanine aminotransferase compared to 22% of untreated patients. There was no significant difference in the rate of histological progression between subgroups. UDCA did not influence patient and graft survival. In conclusion, the development of recurrent PBC has little impact on long-term survival or need for retransplantation. While UDCA therapy is associated with biochemical improvement, its role in delaying histologic progression remains unknown. In this short period of treatment, UDCA was not associated with improved patient and graft survival compared to untreated patients.

Variable selection strategies in survival models with multiple imputations

In this paper, the variable selection strategies (criteria) are thoroughly discussed and their use in various survival models is investigated. The asymptotic efficiency property, in the sense of Shibata Ann Stat 8: 147-164, 1980, of a class of variable selection strategies which includes the AIC and all criteria equivalent to it, is established for a general class of survival models, such as parametric frailty or transformation models and accelerated failure time models, under minimum conditions. Furthermore, a multiple imputations method is proposed which is found to successfully handle censored observations and constitutes a competitor to existing methods in the literature. A number of real and simulated data are used for illustrative purposes.

Ursodeoxycholic acid for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials using Bayesian approach as sensitivity analyses

OBJECTIVES

Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is used for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), but the beneficial effects remain controversial.

METHODS

We performed an updated systematic review to evaluate the benefits and harms of UDCA in patients with PBC. We included randomized clinical trials evaluating UDCA versus placebo or no intervention in patients with PBC. The primary outcomes, mortality and mortality or liver transplantation, were reported as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Meta-regression was used to investigate the associations between UDCA effects and the trial's risk of bias, UDCA dose, duration, and PBC severity at trial entry. We used Bayesian meta-analytic approaches as sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Sixteen randomized clinical trials (1,447 patients) evaluating UDCA versus placebo or no intervention were identified. Over half of the trials had high risk of bias. Comparing with placebo or no intervention, UDCA did not significantly affect mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.67-1.42) and mortality or liver transplantation (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.71-1.21). The findings were supported by the Bayesian meta-analyses. Meta-regression analyses suggested that UDCA effects seem to be associated with patient's disease severity and trial duration. UDCA did not improve pruritus, fatigue, autoimmune conditions, liver histology, or portal pressure. UDCA seemed to improve biochemical variables, such as serum bilirubin, and ascites and jaundice, but the findings were based on few trials with sparse data. The use of UDCA was significantly associated with adverse events, mainly weight gain.

CONCLUSIONS

This updated systematic review did not demonstrate any benefit of UDCA on mortality and mortality or liver transplantation in patients with PBC.

Azathioprine for primary biliary cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Azathioprine is used for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, but the therapeutic responses in randomised clinical trials have been conflicting.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of azathioprine for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Randomised clinical trials were identified by searching The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, The Chinese Biomedical Database, and LILACS, and manual searches of bibliographies to September 2005.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials comparing azathioprine versus placebo, no intervention, or another drug were included irrespective of blinding, language, year of publication, and publication status.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Our primary outcomes were mortality, and mortality or liver transplantation. Dichotomous outcomes were reported as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Continuous outcomes were reported as weighted mean difference (WMD) or standardised mean difference (SMD). We examined the intervention effects by random-effects and fixed-effect models.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified two randomised clinical trials with 293 patients. Only one of the trials was regarded as having low bias risk. Azathioprine did not significantly decrease mortality (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.31, 2 trials). Azathioprine did not improve pruritus at one-year intervention (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.84, 1 trial), cirrhosis development, or quality of life. Patients given azathioprine experienced significantly more adverse events than patients given no intervention or placebo (RR 2.44, 95% CI 1.14 to 5.20, 2 trials). The common adverse events were rash, severe diarrhoea, and bone marrow depression.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence to support the use of azathioprine for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Researchers who are interested in performing further randomised clinical trials should be aware of the risks of adverse events.

The Mizon-Richard Encompassing Test for the Cox and Aalen Additive Hazards Models

The Cox hazards model (Cox, 1972, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B34, 187-220) for survival data is routinely used in many applied fields, sometimes, however, with too little emphasis on the fit of the model. A useful alternative to the Cox model is the Aalen additive hazards model (Aalen, 1980, in Lecture Notes in Statistics-2, 1-25) that can easily accommodate time changing covariate effects. It is of interest to decide which of the two models that are most appropriate to apply in a given application. This is a nontrivial problem as these two classes of models are nonnested except only for special cases. In this article we explore the Mizon-Richard encompassing test for this particular problem. It turns out that it corresponds to fitting of the Aalen model to the martingale residuals obtained from the Cox regression analysis. We also consider a variant of this method, which relates to the proportional excess model (Martinussen and Scheike, 2002, Biometrika 89, 283-298). Large sample properties of the suggested methods under the two rival models are derived. The finite-sample properties of the proposed procedures are assessed through a simulation study. The methods are further applied to the well-known primary biliary cirrhosis data set.

Overlap of autoimmune hepatitis and primary biliary cirrhosis: long-term outcomes

BACKGROUND

The coexistence of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) has been called "overlap syndrome," but diagnosis is challenging and the natural history of this syndrome has not been demonstrated. The importance of the diagnosis of PBC-AIH overlap is due to potential therapeutic options. Patients with PBC should receive ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA); the role of and response to additional immunosuppressive therapy are unknown when AIH overlaps PBC.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We reviewed 135 patients with PBC according to a revised scoring system proposed by the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group (IAHG). Twenty-six patients had features of PBC-AIH overlap and 109 did not. Mean follow-up was 6.1 yr for overlap syndrome patients and 5.4 yr in PBC patients. There was a higher rate of portal hypertension (P=0.01), esophageal varices (P<0.01), gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (P=0.02), ascites (P<0.01), and death and/or orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) (P<0.05) in the overlap group.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, esophageal varices, GI bleeding, ascites, and death and/or OLT were more common in the overlap group. The higher risk of symptomatic portal hypertension and worse outcomes in patients with PBC overlap syndrome may justify the risks of immunosuppressive therapy. Large randomized studies are necessary to establish optimal therapeutic strategies.

Impact of human leukocyte antigen mismatching on outcomes of living donor liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis

Patient selection criteria of deceased donor liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are almost completely established. The aim of this study was to establish selection criteria for both patients and donors of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for PBC. We used univariate and multivariate analyses to examine patient and donor characteristics of our first 50 cases of LDLT for PBC to elucidate factors that significantly impacted patient survival or disease recurrence after LDLT in the univariate and/or multivariate analyses. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the presence of persistent ascites before LDLT, a higher number of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A, -B, and -DR mismatches between donor and recipient, and donor age >or=50 years were factors significantly associated with early posttransplant death. Independent risk factors for PBC recurrence after LDLT were a lower number of HLA mismatches between donor and recipient, and a lower average trough level of tacrolimus within 1 year after LDLT. Specifically, the lower the number of HLA-A, -B, and -DR mismatches or the average trough level of tacrolimus within 1 year after LDLT, the higher the possibility of developing a recurrence of PBC. In conclusion, the absence of persistent ascites before LDLT, a lower number of HLA-A, -B, and -DR mismatches between donor and recipient, and a younger donor (<50 years) are preferred for gaining acceptable survival outcomes for the transplant. However, a lower number of HLA-A, -B, and -DR mismatches between donor and recipient may be a risk factor for PBC recurrence.

Clinical features of symptomatic primary biliary cirrhosis initially complicated with esophageal varices

BACKGROUND

Esophageal varices (EV), one feature of portal hypertension, have been regarded as a late complication of liver diseases. However, accumulating evidence indicates that EV sometimes develop early during the course of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). The prognosis is usually poorer for patients with symptomatic PBC than for those with asymptomatic PBC. Nevertheless, the clinical features and prognosis of patients with PBC whose initial symptoms are EV have not been clarified.

METHODS

The clinical features and the prognosis of patients who initially developed EV without other symptoms (v-PBC) were retrospectively investigated in 54 patients with symptomatic PBC.

RESULTS

The leukocyte and platelet counts were lower in patients with v-PBC than in those with PBC accompanied by other symptoms (s-PBC). Liver function tests, autoantibodies, and histological stage did not differ between patients with v-PBC and those with s-PBC. Although the prognosis did not differ, the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was significantly higher in v-PBC than in s-PBC (P = 0.0037).

CONCLUSIONS

These data indicate that v-PBC is a hypercarcinogenic state and constitutes a new subgroup of PBC.

Systematic review and meta-analysis: D-Penicillamine vs. placebo/no intervention in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis--Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group

BACKGROUND

D-Penicillamine is used for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis due to its ability to decrease hepatic copper and modulate the immune response. The results on effects of D--penicillamine in randomized-clinical trials of primary biliary cirrhosis patients are inconsistent.

AIM

To systematically evaluate the benefits and harms of D-penicillamine for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

METHODS

We have performed a systematic review with meta-analyses of randomized-clinical trials to evaluate the effects of D-penicillamine for primary biliary cirrhosis. The primary outcomes are mortality and mortality or liver transplantation. We analysed the data by fixed-effect and random-effect models.

RESULTS

Seven randomized trials including 706 patients were analysed. d-Penicillamine was without significant effects on mortality (RR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.82-1.43, P = 0.56), mortality or liver transplantation (RR 1.11, 95% CI: 0.74-1.68, P = 0.62), pruritus, liver complications, progression of liver histological stage and liver biochemical variables. D--Penicillamine significantly decreased serum alanine aminotransferase activity (weighted mean difference -45 IU/L, 95% CI: -75 to -15, P < 0.05) and led to significantly more adverse events (RR 4.18, 95% CI: 1.38-12.69, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

D-Penicillamine did not appear to reduce the risk of mortality or morbidity, and led to more adverse events in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

[Liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis: retrospective analysis of results at a single center]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Currently liver transplantation (LTx) is the only effective curative therapy of end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). Recent data have shown a recurrence rate of up to 32%. However, many studies are based on only a small number of patients with a marginal follow-up below 10 years. It was the aim of this study to analyse survival and complication rates after LTx among 100 patients in a long-term follow-up of up to 17 years.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between 1989 and 2006 data of 115 patients receiving LTx for PBC at the Charité Campus Virchow were retrospectively analysed. The median age of 89 women (84%) and 17 men (16%) was 54 years (25-67).

RESULTS

Actuarial patient survival rate after 10 and 17 years was 88% and 83%. 13 patients (12%) died after a median survival time of 42 months (0.5-136). Two of these patients developed organ dysfunction due to recurrence of PBC. In addition, histological recurrence was found in 17 patients (16%) after a median time of 61 months (36-158). Survival analysis of hospital stay, preoperative Child-Pugh score, rejection episodes, PBC recurrence and retransplantation showed no significant results.

CONCLUSION

Long-term follow-up of up to 17 years after liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis showed excellent survival rates. Both the amount and severity of postoperative complications and the preoperative Child-Pugh score did not affect the long-time survival rate significantly.

Prognosis of ursodeoxycholic Acid-treated patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Results of a 10-yr cohort study involving 297 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The therapeutic potential of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) remains controversial. In addition, relatively few data have been reported on the outcome of patients who have been treated long term. The aim of the present study was to document long-term survival of a prospectively followed large cohort of UDCA treated patients in comparison to that predicted by the Mayo model and of a matched control cohort of the Dutch population.

METHODS

Two hundred ninety-seven patients were included and followed during a median period of 68 (range 3-126) months until death or the end of the study.

RESULTS

Survival free of transplantation (1 yr 99.7%, 5 yr 87%, and 10 yr 71%) was significantly better than predicted by the Mayo model (p= 0.01). However, for patients with abnormal serum bilirubin and/or albumin concentrations at entry, observed and predicted survival did not significantly differ. Compared with survival for a standardized cohort of the Dutch population, observed survival for the total group was significantly decreased (p= 0.0003); for noncirrhotic patients and patients with normal entry bilirubin and albumin concentrations survival was comparable. Serum bilirubin and albumin concentrations were the prognostic factors most consistently associated with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

A 10-year prognosis for most UDCA-treated patients with PBC, i.e., those with a normal bilirubin and albumin concentration, is comparable to that of a matched general population. Our finding that observed survival was significantly better than predicted by the Mayo model may suggest that this model did not accurately predict prognosis in our cohort. Alternatively, this finding indicates an important therapeutic effect of long-term UDCA treatment in PBC, particularly in patients with noncirrhotic, nonadvanced disease.

Additive risk models for survival data with high-dimensional covariates

As a useful alternative to Cox's proportional hazard model, the additive risk model assumes that the hazard function is the sum of the baseline hazard function and the regression function of covariates. This article is concerned with estimation and prediction for the additive risk models with right censored survival data, especially when the dimension of the covariates is comparable to or larger than the sample size. Principal component regression is proposed to give unique and numerically stable estimators. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, component selection based on the weighted bootstrap, and model evaluation techniques are discussed. This approach is illustrated with analysis of the primary biliary cirrhosis clinical data and the diffuse large B-cell lymphoma genomic data. It is shown that this methodology is numerically stable and effective in dimension reduction, while still being able to provide satisfactory prediction and classification results.

Four year follow up of fatigue in a geographically defined primary biliary cirrhosis patient cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Fatigue is the commonest symptom described by patients in most populations with the autoimmune liver disease primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), and appears to be unrelated to liver disease severity. At present, it is unclear how the fatigue experienced by patients (only characterised to date in cross sectional studies) evolves over time. In this study, we set out to address how fatigue had changed over four years of follow up in a geographically defined cohort of PBC patients who participated in an earlier cross sectional study of fatigue impact.

METHODS

Participants in the original 2000 study who were still alive in 2004 were asked to complete the same fatigue assessment tool (fatigue impact score, FIS). In those who had died between 2000 and 2004, medical notes, death certificates, and primary care records were reviewed.

RESULTS

A total of 108 of the original cohort of 136 patients were alive at the time of the follow up study, 99 of whom (92%) participated in the follow up study. With the exception of four patients who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2004, all of whom showed significant improvement in fatigue severity as assessed by FIS, fatigue severity was unchanged over four years of follow up. Among the 28 patients who died during the follow up period, survival was significantly lower in patients who were fatigued at the 2000 baseline (FIS above the median for the whole PBC population (40/160); log rank test, p = 0.006 v non-fatigued patients at baseline). Increased fatigue severity was independently associated with decreased survival on multivariate analysis. Fatigued PBC subjects were significantly more likely to have suffered a cardiac death than non-fatigued patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The fatigue phenotype appears to be highly stable in PBC. The presence of fatigue in PBC is independently associated with a significantly increased risk of death in general, and cardiac death in particular. Factors underpinning fatigue in PBC, and the mechanisms whereby fatigue is associated with increased mortality, warrant further study.

Prognostic factors of primary biliary cirrhosis detected by health screening

AIM

The liver cirrhosis is likely to differ in the Japanese and Western populations. Thus, we performed a retrospective cohort analysis by a review of clinical records to clarify prognostic factors after the onset of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) detected by health screening.

METHODS

The subjects were 52 patients with PBC. Thirty-nine factors were evaluated concerning clinical data and extracted prognostic factors using the Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

The mean duration of the follow-up period was 5.1 years, during which 6 (11.5%) of the patients died. The cumulative survival rate after the onset of PBC was 93.4% after 5 year, and 67.8% after 10 years. Multivariate analysis indicated 2 factors, i.e. the body mass index (BMI), and IgG, as independent prognostic factors. Their hazard ratios were 0.399 (per 1 kg/m2 of BMI) and 1.282 (per 100 mg/dL of IgG). The prognostic index (PI) was calculated by the following formula using these 2 factors. PI = 0.919 x BMI+0.249 x IgG.

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction of the outcome using PI based on the 2 factors provides additional information for the determination of the therapeutic approach in PBC after health screening.

Excellent long-term survival in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis and biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic Acid

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Because the efficacy of UDCA on long-term outcome of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) has not been completely elucidated, we have assessed the course and survival of patients with PBC treated with UDCA and compared with the survival predicted by the Mayo model and the estimated survival of a standardized population.

METHODS

(One hundred ninety-two patients [181 women] with PBC treated with UDCA [15 mg/kg per day] for 1.5-14 years.) Response to treatment was defined by an alkaline phosphatase decrease greater than 40% of baseline values or normal levels after 1 year of treatment. The predicted survival was obtained by the Mayo model and the estimated survival was taken from the standardized matched Spanish population.

RESULTS

Seventeen patients died or fulfilled criteria for liver transplantation (8.9%). The observed survival was higher than that predicted by the Mayo model and lower than that of the control population (P < .001). One hundred seventeen patients (61%) responded to treatment. The survival of responders was significantly higher than that predicted by the Mayo model and similar to that estimated for the control population (P = .15). By contrast, the survival of patients without biochemical response was lower than that estimated for the Spanish population (P < .001) although higher than that predicted by the Mayo model.

CONCLUSIONS

Biochemical response to UDCA after 1 year is associated with a similar survival to the matched control population, clearly supporting the favorable effects of this treatment in PBC. The suboptimal survival of nonresponders identifies the group for further treatments.