Machine Learning and Data Mining Methods in Diabetes Research

A Comprehensive Medical Decision–Support Framework Based on a Heterogeneous Ensemble Classifier for Diabetes Prediction

Early diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) is critical to prevent its serious complications. An ensemble of classifiers is an effective way to enhance classification performance, which can be used to diagnose complex diseases, such as DM. This paper proposes an ensemble framework to diagnose DM by optimally employing multiple classifiers based on bagging and random subspace techniques. The proposed framework combines seven of the most suitable and heterogeneous data mining techniques, each with a separate set of suitable features. These techniques are k-nearest neighbors, naïve Bayes, decision tree, support vector machine, fuzzy decision tree, artificial neural network, and logistic regression. The framework is designed accurately by selecting, for every sub-dataset, the most suitable feature set and the most accurate classifier. It was evaluated using a real dataset collected from electronic health records of Mansura University Hospitals (Mansura, Egypt). The resulting framework achieved 90% of accuracy, 90.2% of recall = 90.2%, and 94.9% of precision. We evaluated and compared the proposed framework with many other classification algorithms. An analysis of the results indicated that the proposed ensemble framework significantly outperforms all other classifiers. It is a successful step towards constructing a personalized decision support system, which could help physicians in daily clinical practice.

Recent Development on Detection Methods for the Diagnosis of Diabetic Retinopathy

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a complication of diabetes that exists throughout the world. DR occurs due to a high ratio of glucose in the blood, which causes alterations in the retinal microvasculature. Without preemptive symptoms of DR, it leads to complete vision loss. However, early screening through computer-assisted diagnosis (CAD) tools and proper treatment have the ability to control the prevalence of DR. Manual inspection of morphological changes in retinal anatomic parts are tedious and challenging tasks. Therefore, many CAD systems were developed in the past to assist ophthalmologists for observing inter- and intra-variations. In this paper, a recent review of state-of-the-art CAD systems for diagnosis of DR is presented. We describe all those CAD systems that have been developed by various computational intelligence and image processing techniques. The limitations and future trends of current CAD systems are also described in detail to help researchers. Moreover, potential CAD systems are also compared in terms of statistical parameters to quantitatively evaluate them. The comparison results indicate that there is still a need for accurate development of CAD systems to assist in the clinical diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy.

A novel single-sensor-based method for the detection of gait-cycle breakdown and freezing of gait in Parkinson's disease

Objective measurement of walking speed and gait deficits are an important clinical tool in chronic illness management. We previously reported in Parkinson's disease that different types of gait tests can now be implemented and administered in the clinic or at home using Ambulosono smartphone-sensor technology, whereby movement sensing protocols can be standardized under voice instruction. However, a common challenge that remains for such wearable sensor systems is how meaningful data can be extracted from seemingly "noisy" raw sensor data, and do so with a high level of accuracy and efficiency. Here, we describe a novel pattern recognition algorithm for the automated detection of gait-cycle breakdown and freezing episodes. Ambulosono-gait-cycle-breakdown-and-freezing-detection (Free-D) integrates a nonlinear m-dimensional phase-space data extraction method with machine learning and Monte Carlo analysis for model building and pattern generalization. We first trained Free-D using a small number of data samples obtained from thirty participants during freezing of gait tests. We then tested the accuracy of Free-D via Monte Carlo cross-validation. We found Free-D to be remarkably effective at detecting gait-cycle breakdown, with mode error rates of 0% and mean error rates < 5%. We also demonstrate the utility of Free-D by applying it to continuous holdout traces not used for either training or testing, and found it was able to identify gait-cycle breakdown and freezing events of varying duration. These results suggest that advanced artificial intelligence and automation tools can be developed to enhance the quality, efficiency, and the expansion of wearable sensor data processing capabilities to meet market and industry demand.

Towards more Accessible Precision Medicine: Building a more Transferable Machine Learning Model to Support Prognostic Decisions for Micro- and Macrovascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Although machine learning models are increasingly being developed for clinical decision support for patients with type 2 diabetes, the adoption of these models into clinical practice remains limited. Currently, machine learning (ML) models are being constructed on local healthcare systems and are validated internally with no expectation that they would validate externally and thus, are rarely transferrable to a different healthcare system. In this work, we aim to demonstrate that (1) even a complex ML model built on a national cohort can be transferred to two local healthcare systems, (2) while a model constructed on a local healthcare system's cohort is difficult to transfer; (3) we examine the impact of training cohort size on the transferability; and (4) we discuss criteria for external validity. We built a model using our previously published Multi-Task Learning-based methodology on a national cohort extracted from OptumLabs® Data Warehouse and transferred the model to two local healthcare systems (i.e., University of Minnesota Medical Center and Mayo Clinic) for external evaluation. The model remained valid when applied to the local patient populations and performed as well as locally constructed models (concordance: .73-.92), demonstrating transferability. The performance of the locally constructed models reduced substantially when applied to each other's healthcare system (concordance: .62-.90). We believe that our modeling approach, in which a model is learned from a national cohort and is externally validated, produces a transferable model, allowing patients at smaller healthcare systems to benefit from precision medicine.

In silico toxicity as a tool for harm reduction: A study of new psychoactive amphetamines and cathinones in the context of criminal science

The emergence of new psychoactive substances (NPS) has raised many issues in the context of law enforcement and public drug policies. In this scenario, interdisciplinary studies are crucial to the decision-making process in the field of criminal science. Unfortunately, information about how NPS affect people's health is lacking even though knowledge about the toxic potential of these substances is essential: the more information about these drugs, the greater the possibility of avoiding damage within the scope of a harm reduction policy. Traditional analytical methods may be inaccessible in the field of forensic science because they are relatively expensive and time-consuming. In this sense, less costly and faster in silico methodologies can be useful strategies. In this work, we submitted computer-calculated toxicity values of various amphetamines and cathinones to an unsupervised multivariate analysis, namely Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and to the supervised techniques Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analogy and Partial Least Square-Discriminant Analysis (SIMCA and PLS-DA) to evaluate how these two NPS groups behave. We studied how theoretical and experimental values are correlated by PLS regression. Although experimental data was available for a small amount of molecules, correlation values reproduced literature values. The in silico method efficiently provided information about the drugs. On the basis of our findings, the technical information presented here can be used in decision-making regarding harm reduction policies and help to fulfill the objectives of criminal science.

Research on Classification of Tibetan Medical Syndrome in Chronic Atrophic Gastritis

Classification association rules that integrate association rules with classification are playing an important role in data mining. However, the time cost on constructing the classification model, and predicting new instances, will be long, due to the large number of rules generated during the mining of association rules, which also will result in the large system consumption. Therefore, this paper proposed a classification model based on atomic classification association rules, and applied it to construct the classification model of a Tibetan medical syndrome for the common plateau disease called Chronic Atrophic Gastritis. Firstly, introduce the idea of “relative support”, and use the constraint-based Apriori algorithm to mine the strong atomic classification association rules between symptoms and syndrome, and the knowledge base of Tibetan medical clinics will be constructed. Secondly, build the classification model of the Tibetan medical syndrome after pruning and prioritizing rules, and the idea of “partial classification” and “first easy to post difficult” strategy are introduced to realize the prediction of this Tibetan medical syndrome. Finally, validate the effectiveness of the classification model, and compare with the CBA algorithm and four traditional classification algorithms. The experimental results showed that the proposed method can realize the construction and classification of the classification model of the Tibetan medical syndrome in a shorter time, with fewer but more understandable rules, while ensuring a higher accuracy with 92.8%.

Applications of Machine Learning in Real-Life Digital Health Interventions: Review of the Literature

Background

Machine learning has attracted considerable research interest toward developing smart digital health interventions. These interventions have the potential to revolutionize health care and lead to substantial outcomes for patients and medical professionals.

Objective

Our objective was to review the literature on applications of machine learning in real-life digital health interventions, aiming to improve the understanding of researchers, clinicians, engineers, and policy makers in developing robust and impactful data-driven interventions in the health care domain.

Methods

We searched the PubMed and Scopus bibliographic databases with terms related to machine learning, to identify real-life studies of digital health interventions incorporating machine learning algorithms. We grouped those interventions according to their target (ie, target condition), study design, number of enrolled participants, follow-up duration, primary outcome and whether this had been statistically significant, machine learning algorithms used in the intervention, and outcome of the algorithms (eg, prediction).

Results

Our literature search identified 8 interventions incorporating machine learning in a real-life research setting, of which 3 (37%) were evaluated in a randomized controlled trial and 5 (63%) in a pilot or experimental single-group study. The interventions targeted depression prediction and management, speech recognition for people with speech disabilities, self-efficacy for weight loss, detection of changes in biopsychosocial condition of patients with multiple morbidity, stress management, treatment of phantom limb pain, smoking cessation, and personalized nutrition based on glycemic response. The average number of enrolled participants in the studies was 71 (range 8-214), and the average follow-up study duration was 69 days (range 3-180). Of the 8 interventions, 6 (75%) showed statistical significance (at the P=.05 level) in health outcomes.

Conclusions

This review found that digital health interventions incorporating machine learning algorithms in real-life studies can be useful and effective. Given the low number of studies identified in this review and that they did not follow a rigorous machine learning evaluation methodology, we urge the research community to conduct further studies in intervention settings following evaluation principles and demonstrating the potential of machine learning in clinical practice.

Gastroenterology Meets Machine Learning: Status Quo and Quo Vadis

Machine learning has undergone a transition phase from being a pure statistical tool to being one of the main drivers of modern medicine. In gastroenterology, this technology is motivating a growing number of studies that rely on these innovative methods to deal with critical issues related to this practice. Hence, in the light of the burgeoning research on the use of machine learning in gastroenterology, a systematic review of the literature is timely. In this work, we present the results gleaned through a systematic review of prominent gastroenterology literature using machine learning techniques. Based on the analysis of 88 journal articles, we delimit the scope of application, we discuss current limitations including bias, lack of transparency, accountability, and data availability, and we put forward future avenues.

Alternative data mining/machine learning methods for the analytical evaluation of food quality and authenticity - A review

In recent years, the variety and volume of data acquired by modern analytical instruments in order to conduct a better authentication of food has dramatically increased. Several pattern recognition tools have been developed to deal with the large volume and complexity of available trial data. The most widely used methods are principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), soft independent modelling by class analogy (SIMCA), k-nearest neighbours (kNN), parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC), and multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS). Nevertheless, there are alternative data treatment methods, such as support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree (CART) and random forest (RF), that show a great potential and more advantages compared to conventional ones. In this paper, we explain the background of these methods and review and discuss the reported studies in which these three methods have been applied in the area of food quality and authenticity. In addition, we clarify the technical terminology used in this particular area of research.

Analysis of Trabecular Bone Mechanics Using Machine Learning

"Bone remodeling" is a dynamic process, and mutliphase analysis incorporated with the forecasting algorithm can help the biologists and orthopedics to interpret the laboratory generated results and to apply them in improving applications in the fields of "drug design, treatment, and therapy" of diseased bones. The metastasized bone microenvironment has always remained a challenging puzzle for the researchers. A multiphase computational model is interfaced with the artificial intelligence algorithm in a hybrid manner during this research. Trabecular surface remodeling is presented in this article, with the aid of video graphic footage, and the associated parametric thresholds are derived from artificial intelligence and clinical data.

Applying Machine Learning Techniques to Identify Undiagnosed Patients with Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency

BACKGROUND

Exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI) is a serious condition characterized by a lack of functional exocrine pancreatic enzymes and the resultant inability to properly digest nutrients. EPI can be caused by a variety of disorders, including chronic pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, and celiac disease. EPI remains underdiagnosed because of the nonspecific nature of clinical symptoms, lack of an ideal diagnostic test, and the inability to easily identify affected patients using administrative claims data.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a machine learning model that identifies patients in a commercial medical claims database who likely have EPI but are undiagnosed.

METHODS

A machine learning algorithm was developed in Scikit-learn, a Python module. The study population, selected from the 2014 Truven MarketScan® Commercial Claims Database, consisted of patients with EPI-prone conditions. Patients were labeled with 290 condition category flags and split into actual positive EPI cases, actual negative EPI cases, and unlabeled cases. The study population was then randomly divided into a training subset and a testing subset. The training subset was used to determine the performance metrics of 27 models and to select the highest performing model, and the testing subset was used to evaluate performance of the best machine learning model.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 2088 actual positive EPI cases, 1077 actual negative EPI cases, and 437 530 unlabeled cases. In the best performing model, the precision, recall, and accuracy were 0.91, 0.80, and 0.86, respectively. The best-performing model estimated that the number of patients likely to have EPI was about 12 times the number of patients directly identified as EPI-positive through a claims analysis in the study population. The most important features in assigning EPI probability were the presence or absence of diagnosis codes related to pancreatic and digestive conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning techniques demonstrated high predictive power in identifying patients with EPI and could facilitate an enhanced understanding of its etiology and help to identify patients for possible diagnosis and treatment.

Identification of diagnostic biomarker in patients with gestational diabetes mellitus based on transcriptome-wide gene expression and pattern recognition

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is becoming a growing threat for all pregnancies. In this study, we set up an automatic screening method combining both transcriptomic databases and support vector machine (SVM)-based pattern recognition to select biomarkers that can be used in predicting and preventing GDM for gravidas. We screened 63 samples (32 GDM samples and 31 normal controls) in GEO database for the GDM-specific biomarkers. Differentially expressed genes between patients with GDM and normal controls were picked out using edgeR package. Enrichment analysis was performed using database for annotation, visualization, and integrated discovery. The regulatory gene network was constructed based on the KEGG pathway database. Genes in the hub of the network were selected as specific biomarkers of GDM and further validated through document investigation. Finally, the GDM prediction model was verified using the SVMs. In total, 189 probes corresponding to 69 genes that differentially expressed between GDM and controls were screened out by edgeR package. Nineteen pathways were clustered by KEGG enrichment analysis and were integrated into a regulatory network containing 572 nodes and 1874 edges. The intersection of 50 hub genes extracted from the network and 69 differential genes picked out by edgeR was a collection of six genes, including members of HLA superfamily. In the SVM model, the six genes had a good capacity of predicting GDM in both the training data set (area under curve [AUC] is 0.781) and the testing data set (AUC is 0.710) and had been reported to be associated with GDM. We found that the collection of six genes can be potentially applied as a biomarker for GDM diagnosis.

Algorithm for diabetes risk evaluation from past gestational diabetes data

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is defined as glucose intolerance that is diagnosed in pregnancy period, leading to possible complications for both mother and fetus during pregnancy. The aim of this study was to build an objective method to evaluate diabetes mellitus (DM) risk from past GDM data recorded 15 years ago and find a short list of most informative indicators. The dataset consists of demographic, lifestyle, clinical, genetic and pregnancy related information recorded 15 years ago. Due to the large time gap data are limited and have missing values (MVs). Follow-up tests were performed to see if DM or impaired metabolism has developed after pregnancy with previously diagnosed GDM. The research steps involve pre-processing data to evaluate MVs, finding most informative attributes and testing standard classification algorithms to combine in to most effective voting meta-algorithm. Initially the attributes and records with large number of MVs were rejected. A small percentage (2.04%) was imputed using regression based methods. The data set was prepared for two scenarios: classification in two classes (1-healthy; 2-impaired metabolism including DM) and three classes (1-healthy; 2-impaired metabolism; 3-DM). Voting meta-algorithm combining best algorithms of 21 from five different groups including Bayesian, regression, lazy, rule, and decision trees makes classification more objective and not depending on preferences. Relative frequency of occurrence (RFO) analysis of attributes combined with voting meta-algorithm helped finding optimal amount of attributes giving best possible classification result. The algorithm applied to two class data set with 12 selected attributes produced accuracy of 75.85 and AUC = 0.82 with standard error of 0.11. Similarly for three class dataset the 9 attributes were selected allowing to reach classification accuracy 63.77 and AUC = 0.76 with standard error of 0.1. Meta-algorithm based classification of limited anamnestic GDM related data for DM prediction is proving to be effective. Testing multiple algorithms and performing RFO analysis appears to be natural and objective way of selecting most informative attributes and evaluating their importance.

Recent advances in computational tools and resources for the self-management of type 2 diabetes

Background: While healthcare systems are investing resources on type 2 diabetes patients, self-management is becoming the new trend for these patients. Due to the pervasiveness of computing devices, a number of computerized systems are emerging to support the self-management of patients.Objective: The primary objective of this review is to identify and categorize the computational tools that exist for the self-management of type 2 diabetes, and to identify challenges that need to be addressed.Results: The tools have been categorized into web applications, mobile applications, games and ubiquitous diabetes management systems. We provide a detailed description of the salient features of each category along with a comparison of the various tools, listing their challenges and practical implications. A list of platforms that can be used to develop new tools for the self-management of type 2 diabetes, namely mobile applications development, sensor development, cloud computing, social media, and machine learning and predictive analysis platforms, are also provided.Discussions: This paper identifies a number of challenges in the existing categories of computational tools and consequently presents possible avenues for future research. Failure to address these issues will negatively impact on the adoption rate of the self-management tools and applications.

Predicting drug-resistant epilepsy - A machine learning approach based on administrative claims data

Patients with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) are at high risk of morbidity and mortality, yet their referral to specialist care is frequently delayed. The ability to identify patients at high risk of DRE at the time of treatment initiation, and to subsequently steer their treatment pathway toward more personalized interventions, has high clinical utility. Here, we aim to demonstrate the feasibility of developing algorithms for predicting DRE using machine learning methods. Longitudinal, intersected data sourced from US pharmacy, medical, and adjudicated hospital claims from 1,376,756 patients from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed; 292,892 met inclusion criteria for epilepsy, and 38,382 were classified as having DRE using a proxy measure for drug resistance. Patients were characterized using 1270 features reflecting demographics, comorbidities, medications, procedures, epilepsy status, and payer status. Data from 175,735 randomly selected patients were used to train three algorithms and from the remainder to assess the trained models' predictive power. A model with only age and sex was used as a benchmark. The best model, random forest, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 0.764 (0.759, 0.770), compared with 0.657 (0.651, 0.663) for the benchmark model. Moreover, predicted probabilities for DRE were well-calibrated with the observed frequencies in the data. The model predicted drug resistance approximately 2 years before patients in the test dataset had failed two antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). Machine learning models constructed using claims data predicted which patients are likely to fail ≥3 AEDs and are at risk of developing DRE at the time of the first AED prescription. The use of such models can ensure that patients with predicted DRE receive specialist care with potentially more aggressive therapeutic interventions from diagnosis, to help reduce the serious sequelae of DRE.

Prediction of Glucose Metabolism Disorder Risk Using a Machine Learning Algorithm: Pilot Study

Background

A 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) provides important information about glucose metabolism, although the test is expensive and invasive. Complete OGTT information, such as 1-hour and 2-hour postloading plasma glucose and immunoreactive insulin levels, may be useful for predicting the future risk of diabetes or glucose metabolism disorders (GMD), which includes both diabetes and prediabetes.

Objective

We trained several classification models for predicting the risk of developing diabetes or GMD using data from thousands of OGTTs and a machine learning technique (XGBoost). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their area under the curve (AUC) values for the trained classification models are reported, along with the sensitivity and specificity determined by the cutoff values of the Youden index. We compared the performance of the machine learning techniques with logistic regressions (LR), which are traditionally used in medical research studies.

Methods

Data were collected from subjects who underwent multiple OGTTs during comprehensive check-up medical examinations conducted at a single facility in Tokyo, Japan, from May 2006 to April 2017. For each examination, a subject was diagnosed with diabetes or prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association guidelines. Given the data, 2 studies were conducted: predicting the risk of developing diabetes (study 1) or GMD (study 2). For each study, to apply supervised machine learning methods, the required label data was prepared. If a subject was diagnosed with diabetes or GMD at least once during the period, then that subject’s data obtained in previous trials were classified into the risk group (y=1). After data processing, 13,581 and 6760 OGTTs were analyzed for study 1 and study 2, respectively. For each study, a randomly chosen subset representing 80% of the data was used for training 9 classification models and the remaining 20% was used for evaluating the models. Three classification models, A to C, used XGBoost with various input variables, some including OGTT data. The other 6 classification models, D to I, used LR for comparison.

Results

For study 1, the AUC values ranged from 0.78 to 0.93. For study 2, the AUC values ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. The machine learning approach using XGBoost showed better performance compared with traditional LR methods. The AUC values increased when the full OGTT variables were included. In our analysis using a particular setting of input variables, XGBoost showed that the OGTT variables were more important than fasting plasma glucose or glycated hemoglobin.

Conclusions

A machine learning approach, XGBoost, showed better prediction accuracy compared with LR, suggesting that advanced machine learning methods are useful for detecting the early signs of diabetes or GMD. The prediction accuracy increased when all OGTT variables were added. This indicates that complete OGTT information is important for predicting the future risk of diabetes and GMD accurately.

Pipeline design to identify key features and classify the chemotherapy response on lung cancer patients using large-scale genetic data

BACKGROUND

During the last decade, the interest to apply machine learning algorithms to genomic data has increased in many bioinformatics applications. Analyzing this type of data entails difficulties for managing high-dimensional data, class imbalance for knowledge extraction, identifying important features and classifying individuals. In this study, we propose a general framework to tackle these challenges with different machine learning algorithms and techniques. We apply the configuration of this framework on lung cancer patients, identifying genetic signatures for classifying response to drug treatment response. We intersect these relevant SNPs with the GWAS Catalog of the National Human Genome Research Institute and explore the Regulomedb, GTEx databases for functional analysis purposes.

RESULTS

The machine learning based solution proposed in this study is a scalable and flexible alternative to the classical uni-variate regression approach to analyze large-scale data. From 36 experiments executed using the machine learning framework design, we obtain good classification performance from the top 5 models with the highest cross-validation score and the smallest standard deviation. One thousand two hundred twenty four SNPs corresponding to the key features from the top 20 models (cross validation F1 mean >= 0.65) were compared with the GWAS Catalog finding no intersection with genome-wide significant reported hits. From these, new genetic signatures in MAE, CEP104, PRKCZ and ADRB2 show relevant biological regulatory functionality related to lung physiology.

CONCLUSIONS

We have defined a machine learning framework using data with an unbalanced large data-set of SNP-arrays and imputed genotyping data from a pharmacogenomics study in lung cancer patients subjected to first-line platinum-based treatment. This approach found genome signals with no genome-wide significance in the uni-variate regression approach (GWAS Catalog) that are valuable for classifying patients, only few of them with related biological function. The effect results of these variants can be explained by the recently proposed omnigenic model hypothesis, which states that complex traits can be influenced mostly by genes outside not only by the "core genes", mainly found by the genome-wide significant SNPs, but also by the rest of genes outside of the "core pathways" with apparent unrelated biological functionality.

Predicting Diabetes Mellitus With Machine Learning Techniques

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease characterized by hyperglycemia. It may cause many complications. According to the growing morbidity in recent years, in 2040, the world’s diabetic patients will reach 642 million, which means that one of the ten adults in the future is suffering from diabetes. There is no doubt that this alarming figure needs great attention. With the rapid development of machine learning, machine learning has been applied to many aspects of medical health. In this study, we used decision tree, random forest and neural network to predict diabetes mellitus. The dataset is the hospital physical examination data in Luzhou, China. It contains 14 attributes. In this study, five-fold cross validation was used to examine the models. In order to verity the universal applicability of the methods, we chose some methods that have the better performance to conduct independent test experiments. We randomly selected 68994 healthy people and diabetic patients’ data, respectively as training set. Due to the data unbalance, we randomly extracted 5 times data. And the result is the average of these five experiments. In this study, we used principal component analysis (PCA) and minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) to reduce the dimensionality. The results showed that prediction with random forest could reach the highest accuracy (ACC = 0.8084) when all the attributes were used.

Stacked classifiers for individualized prediction of glycemic control following initiation of metformin therapy in type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Metformin is the preferred first-line medication for management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetes. However, over a third of patients experience primary or secondary therapeutic failure. We developed machine learning models to predict which patients initially prescribed metformin will achieve and maintain control of their blood glucose after one year of therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of administrative claims data for 12,147 commercially-insured adults and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries with prediabetes or diabetes. Several machine learning models were trained using variables available at the time of metformin initiation to predict achievement and maintenance of hemoglobin A_1c (HbA_1c) < 7.0% after one year of therapy.

RESULTS

AUC performances based on five-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.58 to 0.75. The most influential variables driving the predictions were baseline HbA_1c, starting metformin dosage, and presence of diabetes with complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning models can effectively predict primary or secondary metformin treatment failure within one year. This information can help identify effective individualized treatment strategies. Most of the implemented models outperformed traditional logistic regression, highlighting the potential for applying machine learning to problems in medicine.

Digital diabetes: Perspectives for diabetes prevention, management and research

Digital medicine, digital research and artificial intelligence (AI) have the power to transform the field of diabetes with continuous and no-burden remote monitoring of patients' symptoms, physiological data, behaviours, and social and environmental contexts through the use of wearables, sensors and smartphone technologies. Moreover, data generated online and by digital technologies - which the authors suggest be grouped under the term 'digitosome' - constitute, through the quantity and variety of information they represent, a powerful potential for identifying new digital markers and patterns of risk that, ultimately, when combined with clinical data, can improve diabetes management and quality of life, and also prevent diabetes-related complications. Moving from a world in which patients are characterized by only a few recent measurements of fasting glucose levels and glycated haemoglobin to a world where patients, healthcare professionals and research scientists can consider various key parameters at thousands of time points simultaneously will profoundly change the way diabetes is prevented, managed and characterized in patients living with diabetes, as well as how it is scientifically researched. Indeed, the present review looks at how the digitization of diabetes can impact all fields of diabetes - its prevention, management, technology and research - and how it can complement, but not replace, what is usually done in traditional clinical settings. Such a profound shift is a genuine game changer that should be embraced by all, as it can provide solid research results transferable to patients, improve general health literacy, and provide tools to facilitate the everyday decision-making process by both healthcare professionals and patients living with diabetes.

Advancing Measurement of Diabetes at the Population Level

PURPOSE

The measurement and estimation of diabetes in populations guides resource allocation, health priorities, and can influence practice and future research. To provide a critical reflection on current diabetes surveillance, we provide in-depth discussion about how upstream determinants, prevalence, incidence, and downstream impacts of diabetes are measured in the USA, and the challenges in obtaining valid, accurate, and precise estimates.

FINDINGS

Current estimates of the burden of diabetes risk are obtained through national surveys, health systems data, registries, and administrative data. Several methodological nuances influence accurate estimates of the population-level burden of diabetes, including biases in selection and response rates, representation of population subgroups, accuracy of reporting of diabetes status, variation in biochemical testing, and definitions of diabetes used by investigators. Technological innovations and analytical approaches (e.g., data linkage to outcomes data like the National Death Index) may help address some, but not all, of these concerns, and additional methodological advances and validation are still needed. Current surveillance efforts are imperfect, but measures consistently collected and analyzed over several decades enable useful comparisons over time. In addition, we proposed that focused subsampling, use of technology, data linkages, and innovative sensitivity analyses can substantially advance population-level estimation.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring: Current Use in Diabetes Management and Possible Future Applications

The recent announcement of the production of new low-cost continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors, the approval of marketed CGM sensors for making treatment decisions, and new reimbursement criteria have the potential to revolutionize CGM use. After briefly summarizing current CGM applications, we discuss how, in our opinion, these changes are expected to extend CGM utilization beyond diabetes patients, for example, to subjects with prediabetes or even healthy individuals. We also elaborate on how the integration of CGM data with other relevant information, for example, health records and other medical device/wearable sensor data, will contribute to creating a digital data ecosystem that will improve our understanding of the etiology and complications of diabetes and will facilitate the development of data analytics for personalized diabetes management and prevention.

Identifying people at risk of developing type 2 diabetes: A comparison of predictive analytics techniques and predictor variables

BACKGROUND

The present study aims to identify the patients at risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). There is a body of literature that uses machine learning classification algorithms to predict development of T2D among patients. The current study compares the performance of these classification algorithms to identify patients who are at risk of developing T2D in short, medium and long terms. In addition, the list of predictor variables important for prediction for T2D progression is provided.

METHODS

This study uses 10,911 records generated in 36 clinics from the 15th of November 2008-15th of November 2016. Syntactic minority oversampling and random under sampling were used to create a balanced dataset. The performance of Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, Decision Tress and Logistic Regression to identify patients developing T2D in short, medium and long terms was compared. The measures were Area Under Curve, Sensitivity, Specificity, Matthew correlation coefficient and Mean Calibration Error. Through importance analysis and information fusion techniques the predictors of developing T2D were identified for short, medium and long-term risk analysis.

RESULTS

The findings show that the performance of analytics techniques depends on both period and purpose of prediction whether the prediction is to identify people who will not develop T2D or to determine at risk patients. Oversampling as opposed to under sampling improved performance. 16 predictors and their importance to determine patients at risk of T2D in short, medium and long terms were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides guidelines for an automated system to prompt patients for screening. Several predictors are reportable by patients, others can be examined by physicians or ordered for further lab examination, which offers a potential reduction of the burden placed upon the clinical settings.

A Random Forest classifier-based approach in the detection of abnormalities in the retina

Classification of abnormalities from medical images using computer-based approaches is of growing interest in medical imaging. Timely detection of abnormalities due to diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration is required in order to prevent the prognosis of the disease. Computer-aided systems using machine learning are becoming interesting to ophthalmologists and researchers. We present here one such technique, the Random Forest classifier, to aid medical practitioners in accurate diagnosis of the diseases. A computer-aided diagnosis system is proposed for detecting retina abnormalities, which combines K means-based segmentation of the retina image, after due preprocessing, followed by machine learning techniques, using several low level and statistical features. Abnormalities in the retina that are classified are caused by age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy. Performance measures used in the analysis are accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F-measure, and Mathew correlation coefficient. A comparison with another machine learning technique, the Naïve Bayes classifier shows that the classification achieved by Random Forest classifier is 93.58% and it outperforms Naïve Bayes classifier which yields an accuracy of 83.63%. Graphical abstract Random Forest classifier for abnormality detection in retina images.

Futuristic biosensors for cardiac health care: an artificial intelligence approach

Biosensor-based devices are pioneering in the modern biomedical applications and will be the future of cardiac health care. The coupling of artificial intelligence (AI) for cardiac monitoring-based biosensors for the point of care (POC) diagnostics is prominently reviewed here. This review deciphers the most significant machine-learning algorithms for the futuristic biosensors along with the internet of things, computational techniques and microchip-based essential cardiac biomarkers for real-time health monitoring and improving patient compliance. The present review also discusses the recently developed cardiac biosensors along with technical strategies involved in their mechanism of working and their applications in healthcare. Additionally, it provides a key for the ontogeny of an effective and supportive hierarchical protocol for clinical decision-making about personalized medicine through combinatory information analysis, and integrated multidisciplinary AI approaches.

Analysis and Study of Diabetes Follow-Up Data Using a Data-Mining-Based Approach in New Urban Area of Urumqi, Xinjiang, China, 2016-2017

The focus of this study is the use of machine learning methods that combine feature selection and imbalanced process (SMOTE algorithm) to classify and predict diabetes follow-up control satisfaction data. After the feature selection and unbalanced process, diabetes follow-up data of the New Urban Area of Urumqi, Xinjiang, was used as input variables of support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, and integrated learning model (Adaboost and Bagging) for modeling and prediction. The experimental results show that Adaboost algorithm produces better classification results. For the test set, the G-mean was 94.65%, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.9817, and the important variables in the classification process, fasting blood glucose, age, and BMI were given. The performance of the decision tree model in the test set is relatively lower than that of the support vector machine and the ensemble learning model. The prediction results of these classification models are sufficient. Compared with a single classifier, ensemble learning algorithms show different degrees of increase in classification accuracy. The Adaboost algorithm can be used for the prediction of diabetes follow-up and control satisfaction data.

Incorporating machine learning approaches to assess putative environmental risk factors for multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence has increased recently, particularly in women, suggesting a possible role of one or more environmental exposures in MS risk. The study objective was to determine if animal, dietary, recreational, or occupational exposures are associated with MS risk.

METHODS

Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to identify a subset of exposures with potential relevance to disease in a large population-based (Kaiser Permanente Northern California [KPNC]) case-control study. Variables with non-zero coefficients were analyzed in matched conditional logistic regression analyses, adjusted for established environmental risk factors and socioeconomic status (if relevant in univariate screening),± genetic risk factors, in the KPNC cohort and, for purposes of replication, separately in the Swedish Epidemiological Investigation of MS cohort. These variables were also assessed in models stratified by HLA-DRB1*15:01 status since interactions between risk factors and that haplotype have been described.

RESULTS

There was a suggestive association of pesticide exposure with having MS among men, but only in those who were positive for HLA-DRB1*15:01 (OR pooled = 3.11, 95% CI 0.87, 11.16, p = 0.08).

CONCLUSIONS

While this finding requires confirmation, it is interesting given the association between pesticide exposure and other neurological diseases. The study also demonstrates the application of LASSO to identify environmental exposures with reduced multiple statistical testing penalty. Machine learning approaches may be useful for future investigations of concomitant MS risk or prognostic factors.

Different strategies for detection of HbA1c emphasizing on biosensors and point-of-care analyzers

Measurement of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is a gold standard procedure for assessing long term glycemic control in individuals with diabetes mellitus as it gives the stable and reliable value of blood glucose levels for a period of 90-120 days. HbA1c is formed by the non-enzymatic glycation of terminal valine of hemoglobin. The analysis of HbA1c tends to be complicated because there are more than 300 different assay methods for measuring HbA1c which leads to variations in reported values from same samples. Therefore, standardization of detection methods is recommended. The review outlines the current research activities on developing assays including biosensors for the detection of HbA1c. The pros and cons of different techniques for measuring HbA1c are outlined. The performance of current point-of-care HbA1c analyzers available on the market are also compared and discussed. The future perspectives for HbA1c detection and diabetes management are proposed.

Artificial Intelligence for Diabetes Management and Decision Support: Literature Review

Background

Artificial intelligence methods in combination with the latest technologies, including medical devices, mobile computing, and sensor technologies, have the potential to enable the creation and delivery of better management services to deal with chronic diseases. One of the most lethal and prevalent chronic diseases is diabetes mellitus, which is characterized by dysfunction of glucose homeostasis.

Objective

The objective of this paper is to review recent efforts to use artificial intelligence techniques to assist in the management of diabetes, along with the associated challenges.

Methods

A review of the literature was conducted using PubMed and related bibliographic resources. Analyses of the literature from 2010 to 2018 yielded 1849 pertinent articles, of which we selected 141 for detailed review.

Results

We propose a functional taxonomy for diabetes management and artificial intelligence. Additionally, a detailed analysis of each subject category was performed using related key outcomes. This approach revealed that the experiments and studies reviewed yielded encouraging results.

Conclusions

We obtained evidence of an acceleration of research activity aimed at developing artificial intelligence-powered tools for prediction and prevention of complications associated with diabetes. Our results indicate that artificial intelligence methods are being progressively established as suitable for use in clinical daily practice, as well as for the self-management of diabetes. Consequently, these methods provide powerful tools for improving patients’ quality of life.

Vitamin D levels and parathyroid hormone variations of children living in a subtropical climate: a data mining study

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) play a crucial role in calcium homeostasis and bone health of children. Serum level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) is considered to be the most accurate marker for vitamin D status. However, there have only been a few studies, with limited number of subjects, investigating the relationship between 25-OHD and parathyroid hormone (PTH) in children. The aim of this study was to evaluate the seasonal 25-OHD levels and its associations with intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) in Turkish children at all pediatric ages; and then to define a critical decision threshold level for 25-OHD deficiency in Turkish children.

METHODS

A retrospective record review of 90,042 children, was performed on serum 25-OHD and for 3525 iPTH levels. They were measured by mass spectrometry method and by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay simultaneously.

RESULTS

25-OHD levels showed a sinusoidal fluctuation througout the year; being significantly higher in summer and autumn (p < 0,01). 25-OHD levels decreased with respect to age. The significant inverse relationship that was found between iPTH and 25-OHD suggests that the inflection point of serum 25-OHD level for maximal suppression of PTH is at 30 ng/ml.

CONCLUSION

As the rate of vitamin D deficiency decreases in the early years due to vitamin D supplementation, the recommendation should be set due to a clinical threshold level of 30 ng/ml for 25-OHD based on PTH levels in children of our population.

Prediction of dyslipidemia using gene mutations, family history of diseases and anthropometric indicators in children and adolescents: The CASPIAN-III study

Dyslipidemia, the disorder of lipoprotein metabolism resulting in high lipid profile, is an important modifiable risk factor for coronary heart diseases. It is associated with more than four million worldwide deaths per year. Half of the children with dyslipidemia have hyperlipidemia during adulthood, and its prediction and screening are thus critical. We designed a new dyslipidemia diagnosis system. The sample size of 725 subjects (age 14.66 ± 2.61 years; 48% male; dyslipidemia prevalence of 42%) was selected by multistage random cluster sampling in Iran. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs1801177, rs708272, rs320, rs328, rs2066718, rs2230808, rs5880, rs5128, rs2893157, rs662799, and Apolipoprotein-E2/E3/E4), and anthropometric, life-style attributes, and family history of diseases were analyzed. A framework for classifying mixed-type data in imbalanced datasets was proposed. It included internal feature mapping and selection, re-sampling, optimized group method of data handling using convex and stochastic optimizations, a new cost function for imbalanced data and an internal validation. Its performance was assessed using hold-out and 4-foldcross-validation. Four other classifiers namely as supported vector machines, decision tree, and multilayer perceptron neural network and multiple logistic regression were also used. The average sensitivity, specificity, precision and accuracy of the proposed system were 93%, 94%, 94% and 92%, respectively in cross validation. It significantly outperformed the other classifiers and also showed excellent agreement and high correlation with the gold standard. A non-invasive economical version of the algorithm was also implemented suitable for low- and middle-income countries. It is thus a promising new tool for the prediction of dyslipidemia.

Digital health technology and diabetes management

Diabetes care is largely dependent on patient self-management and empowerment, given that patients with diabetes must make numerous daily decisions as to what to eat, when to exercise, and determine their insulin dose and timing if required. In addition, patients and providers are generating vast amounts of data from many sources, including electronic medical records, insulin pumps, sensors, glucometers, and other wearables, as well as evolving genomic, proteomic, metabolomics, and microbiomic data. Multiple digital tools and apps have been developed to assist patients to choose wisely, and to enhance their compliance by using motivational tools and incorporating incentives from social media and gaming techniques. Healthcare teams (HCTs) and health administrators benefit from digital developments that sift through the enormous amounts of patient-generated data. Data are acquired, integrated, analyzed, and presented in a self-explanatory manner, highlighting important trends and items that require attention. The use of decision support systems may propose data-driven actions that, for the most, require final approval by the patient or physician before execution and, once implemented, may improve patient outcomes. The digital diabetes clinic aims to incorporate all digital patient data and provide individually tailored virtual or face-to-face visits to those persons who need them most. Digital diabetes care has demonstrated only modest HbA1c reduction in multiple studies and borderline cost-effectiveness, although patient satisfaction appears to be increased. Better understanding of the barriers to digital diabetes care and identification of unmet needs may yield improved utilization of this evolving technology in a safe, effective, and cost-saving manner.

Quantitative approaches to energy and glucose homeostasis: machine learning and modelling for precision understanding and prediction

Obesity is a major global public health problem. Understanding how energy homeostasis is regulated, and can become dysregulated, is crucial for developing new treatments for obesity. Detailed recording of individual behaviour and new imaging modalities offer the prospect of medically relevant models of energy homeostasis that are both understandable and individually predictive. The profusion of data from these sources has led to an interest in applying machine learning techniques to gain insight from these large, relatively unstructured datasets. We review both physiological models and machine learning results across a diverse range of applications in energy homeostasis, and highlight how modelling and machine learning can work together to improve predictive ability. We collect quantitative details in a comprehensive mathematical supplement. We also discuss the prospects of forecasting homeostatic behaviour and stress the importance of characterizing stochasticity within and between individuals in order to provide practical, tailored forecasts and guidance to combat the spread of obesity.

Targeting weight loss interventions to reduce cardiovascular complications of type 2 diabetes: a machine learning-based post-hoc analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects in the Look AHEAD trial

BACKGROUND

The Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial investigated whether long-term cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality could be reduced through a weight loss intervention among people with type 2 diabetes. Despite finding no significant reduction in cardiovascular events on average, it is possible that some subpopulations might have derived benefit. In this post-hoc analysis, we test the hypothesis that the overall neutral average treatment effect in the trial masked important heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from intensive weight loss interventions.

METHODS

We used causal forest modelling, which identifies HTEs, using a random half of the trial data (the training set). We applied Cox proportional hazards models to test the potential HTEs on the remaining half of the data (the testing set). The analysis was deemed exempt from review by the Columbia University Institutional Review Board, Protocol ID# AAAO3003.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 22, 2001, and April 30, 2004, 5145 patients with type 2 diabetes were enrolled in the Look AHEAD randomised controlled trial, of whom 4901 were included in the The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases Repository and included in our analyses: 2450 for model development and 2451 in the testing dataset. Baseline HbA1c and self-reported general health distinguished participants who differentially benefited from the intervention. Cox models for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome revealed a number needed to treat of 28·9 to prevent 1 event over 9·6 years among participants with HbA1c 6·8% or higher, or both HbA1c less than 6·8% and Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) general health score of 48 or more (2101 [86%] of 2451 participants in the testing dataset; 167 [16%] of 1046 primary outcome events for intervention vs 205 [19%] of 1055 for control, absolute risk reduction of 3·46%, 95% CI 0·21-6·73%, p=0·038) By contrast, participants with HbA1c less than 6·8% and baseline SF-36 general health score of less than 48 (350 [14%] of 2451 participants in the testing data; 27 [16%] of 171 primary outcome events for intervention vs 15 [8%] of 179 primary outcome events for control) had an absolute risk increase of the primary outcome of 7·41% (0·60 to 14·22, p=0·003).

INTERPRETATION

Look AHEAD participants with moderately or poorly controlled diabetes (HbA1c 6·8% or higher) and subjects with well controlled diabetes (HbA1c less than 6·8%) and good self-reported health (85% of the overall study population) averted cardiovascular events from a behavioural intervention aimed at weight loss. However, 15% of participants with well controlled diabetes and poor self-reported general health experienced negative effects that rendered the overall study outcome neutral. HbA1c and a short questionnaire on general health might identify people with type 2 diabetes likely to derive benefit from an intensive lifestyle intervention aimed at weight loss.

FUNDING

None.