The evolution of epidemic influenza

Transmission of a 2009 pandemic influenza virus shows a sensitivity to temperature and humidity similar to that of an H3N2 seasonal strain

In temperate regions of the world, influenza epidemics follow a highly regular seasonal pattern, in which activity peaks in midwinter. Consistently with this epidemiology, we have shown previously that the aerosol transmission of a seasonal H3N2 influenza virus is most efficient under cold, dry conditions. With the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, an exception to the standard seasonality of influenza developed: during 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere, an unusually high level of influenza virus activity over the spring and summer months was followed by a widespread epidemic which peaked in late October, approximately 2.5 months earlier than usual. Herein we show that aerosol transmission of a 2009 pandemic strain shows a dependence on relative humidity and temperature very similar to that of a seasonal H3N2 influenza virus. Our data indicate that the observed differences in the timings of outbreaks with regard to the seasons are most likely not due to intrinsic differences in transmission between the pandemic H1N1 and seasonal H3N2 influenza viruses.

Perspectives on influenza evolution and the role of research

Influenza is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that continues to evolve and threaten both veterinary and human public health. Influenza A viruses are continually undergoing molecular changes through mutations, reassortment, and, in rare instances, recombination. While they generally cause benign enteric infection in their natural reservoir of wild aquatic birds, they can cause catastrophic and potentially lethal disease outbreaks in humans, domestic poultry, and pigs when they cross the host species barrier. The continuing circulation of highly pathogenic (HP) H5N1 influenza viruses in domestic poultry in parts of Eurasia and the emergence and global spread of pandemic H1N1 2009 are current examples of influenza evolution. The spread of both HP H5N1 and pandemic H1N1 to multiple hosts emphasizes the potential for continued evolution. In this review, we discuss the current understanding of influenza A virus structure and strategies of variation, with a specific focus on the HP H5N1 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses. Additionally, we attempt to identify the gaps in our knowledge of H5N1 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses. These gaps include (i) an understanding of the molecular determinants of influenza virus and the host that permit efficient transmissibility and pandemic potential, (ii) the urgent need for prospective surveillance in apparently healthy swine, (iii) the molecular determinants of high pathogenicity in poultry, pigs, and people, (iv) the genetic basis of host susceptibility, (v) antigenic variability, (vi) the use of vaccine to control influenza, (vii) the role of wild birds as the reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza, (viii) the problems with vaccines, (ix) seasonality, (x) co-infections, and (xi) anti-influenza drug resistance. Our failure to eradicate HP H5N1 globally and to explain why H5N1 does not transmit efficiently in humans while an H1N1 pandemic virus of swine origin spread globally in months are key examples that emphasize the critical need to bridge these knowledge gaps. Future directions in influenza research that will help us resolve each of the above-mentioned knowledge gaps include complete genomic and proteomic analysis of both the virus and the host with the prospect of designing new control strategies and the development of genetically resistant hosts.

Norovirus GII.4 strain antigenic variation

Noroviruses are the principal cause of epidemic gastroenteritis worldwide. Multiple reports have concluded that the major capsid proteins of GII.4 strains, which cause 80% of norovirus infections worldwide, are evolving rapidly, resulting in new epidemic strains. Surrogate neutralization assays using sera from outbreaks and from immunized mice suggest that, as with influenza virus, antigenic variation maintains GII.4 persistence in the face of human population herd immunity. To test this hypothesis, mice were hyperimmunized with virus-like particles (VLPs) representing an early (GII.4-1987) and a contemporary (GII.4-2006) GII.4 strain. Anti-GII.4-1987 IgG monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) strongly reacted with GII.4 VLPs derived between only 1987 and 2002. Ligand binding blockade was more efficient with GII.4-1987 and GII.4-1997 VLPs than with GII.4-2002. Anti-GII.4-2006 IgG MAbs recognized either a broad panel of GII.4 VLPs (1987 to 2006) or a subset of contemporary (2004 to 2006) VLPs. Most 2006 antibodies did not recognize or only poorly recognized GII.4 VLPs of 2007 or 2008, documenting rapid antigenic evolution of GII.4 capsids. Generally, 2006 MAbs blocked homotypic VLP-ligand binding but were unable to block VLPs representing strains primarily circulating during or earlier than 2002. These analyses demonstrate that both subtle and significant evolutionary change has occurred within antibody epitopes between epidemic strains, providing direct evidence that the GII.4 noroviruses are undergoing antigenic variation, likely in response to herd immunity. As with influenza virus, HIV, and hepatitis C virus, norovirus antigenic variation will significantly influence the design of efficacious vaccines and immunotherapeutics against these important human pathogens.

Proteotyping to establish the lineage of type A H1N1 and type B human influenza virus

The ability to establish the lineage of type A H1N1 and type B human influenza virus strains using a new proteotyping approach is demonstrated. Lineage-specific signature peptides have been determined for the hemagglutinin antigen of type A H1N1 and type B influenza viruses. The detection of these peptides alone within the high resolution mass spectra of whole antigen digests enables the lineage of the strain to be rapidly and unequivocally assigned. This proteotyping approach complements conventional PCR approaches and should aid in the monitoring of the evolution of the influenza virus in both humans and animals.

Allele dynamics plots for the study of evolutionary dynamics in viral populations

Phylodynamic techniques combine epidemiological and genetic information to analyze the evolutionary and spatiotemporal dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens, such as influenza A or human immunodeficiency viruses. We introduce ‘allele dynamics plots’ (AD plots) as a method for visualizing the evolutionary dynamics of a gene in a population. Using AD plots, we propose how to identify the alleles that are likely to be subject to directional selection. We analyze the method’s merits with a detailed study of the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza A viruses. AD plots for the major surface protein of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and the 2009 swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) viruses show the succession of substitutions that became fixed in the evolution of the two viral populations. They also allow the early identification of those viral strains that later rise to predominance, which is important for the problem of vaccine strain selection. In summary, we describe a technique that reveals the evolutionary dynamics of a rapidly evolving population and allows us to identify alleles and associated genetic changes that might be under directional selection. The method can be applied for the study of influenza A viruses and other rapidly evolving species or viruses.

Genomic signature-based identification of influenza A viruses using RT-PCR/electro-spray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) technology

BACKGROUND

The emergence and rapid spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza A virus (H1N1pdm) in humans highlights the importance of enhancing the capability of existing influenza surveillance systems with tools for rapid identification of emerging and re-emerging viruses. One of the new approaches is the RT-PCR electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (RT-PCR/ESI-MS) technology, which is based on analysis of base composition (BC) of RT-PCR amplicons from influenza "core" genes. Combination of the BC signatures represents a "genomic print" of an influenza A virus.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Here, 757 samples collected between 2006 and 2009 were tested, including 302 seasonal H1N1, 171 H3N2, 7 swine triple reassortants, and 277 H1N1pdm viruses. Of the 277 H1N1pdm samples, 209 were clinical specimens (throat, nasal and nasopharyngeal swabs, nasal washes, blood and sputum). BC signatures for the clinical specimen from one of the first cases of the 2009 pandemic, A/California/04/2009, confirmed it as an unusual, previously unrecognized influenza A virus, with "core" genes related to viruses of avian, human and swine origins. Subsequent analysis of additional 276 H1N1pdm samples revealed that they shared the genomic print of A/California/04/2009, which differed from those of North American swine triple reassortant viruses, seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 and other viruses tested. Moreover, this assay allowed distinction between "core" genes of co-circulating groups of seasonal H1N1, such as clades 2B, 2C, and their reassortants with dual antiviral resistance to adamantanes and oseltamivir.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The RT-PCR/ESI-MS assay is a broad range influenza identification tool that can be used directly on clinical specimens for rapid and accurate detection of influenza virus genes. The assay differentiates the H1N1pdm from seasonal and other nonhuman hosts viruses. Although not a diagnostic tool, this assay demonstrates its usefulness and robustness in influenza virus surveillance and detection of novel and unusual viruses with previously unseen genomic prints.

Influenza virus RNA structure: unique and common features

The influenza A virus genome consists of eight negative-sense RNA segments. Here we review the currently available data on structure-function relationships in influenza virus RNAs. Various ideas and hypotheses about the roles of influenza virus RNA folding in the virus replication are also discussed in relation to other viruses.

No observed effect of homologous recombination on influenza C virus evolution

The occurrence of homologous recombination in influenza viruses has been under some debate recently. To determine the extent of homologous recombination in influenza C virus, recombination analyses of all available gene sequences of influenza C virus were carried out. No recombination signal was found. With the previous evidence in influenza A and B viruses, it seems that homologous recombination has minimal or no effect on influenza virus evolution.

Glycans as receptors for influenza pathogenesis

Influenza A viruses, members of the Orthomyxoviridae family, are responsible for annual seasonal influenza epidemics and occasional global pandemics. The binding of viral coat glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA) to sialylated glycan receptors on host epithelial cells is the critical initial step in the infection and transmission of these viruses. Scientists believe that a switch in the binding specificity of HA from Neu5Acα2-3Gal linked (α2-3) to Neu5Acα2-6Gal linked (α2-6) glycans is essential for the crossover of the viruses from avian to human hosts. However, studies have shown that the classification of glycan binding preference of HA based on sialic acid linkage alone is insufficient to establish a correlation between receptor specificity of HA and the efficient transmission of influenza A viruses. A recent study reported extensive diversity in the structure and composition of α2-6 glycans (which goes beyond the sialic acid linkage) in human upper respiratory epithelia and identified different glycan structural topologies. Biochemical examination of the multivalent HA binding to these diverse sialylated glycan structures also demonstrated that high affinity binding of HA to α2-6 glycans with a characteristic umbrella-like structural topology is critical for efficient human adaptation and human-human transmission of influenza A viruses. This review summarizes studies which suggest a new paradigm for understanding the role of the structure of sialylated glycan receptors in influenza virus pathogenesis.

Application of an In-Cell Western assay for measurement of influenza A virus replication

Influenza A pandemics present enormous challenges to modern medicine. To control such pandemics, quantitative assays characterised by rapidity, high sensitivity, and high-throughput are critical in determining the susceptibility of the influenza A virus to antiviral drugs and for screening chemicals that can inhibit viral replication effectively. In the present study, a rapid and quantitative method to determine influenza A virus replication was developed by an In-Cell Western (ICW) assay. This assay was found to be useful for monitoring the kinetics of influenza A virus replication, as viral nucleoprotein production could be correlated to both increasing doses of viral infection and to the lapse of time during viral infection. Compared to other conventional assays, such as TCID(50), quantitative real-time RT-PCR, and the indirect immunofluorescence assay, the ICW assay exhibits high accuracy, reproducibility, and ease of use. The antiviral effect of amantadine and ribavirin can be determined readily by the ICW assay in 96-well formats, providing a means of rapid antiviral drug screening. Thus, the ICW assay can be used for detecting viral replication, quantifying virus production, and assessing drug-susceptibility in high-throughput applications.

Correlation of influenza virus excess mortality with antigenic variation: application to rapid estimation of influenza mortality burden

The variants of human influenza virus have caused, and continue to cause, substantial morbidity and mortality. Timely and accurate assessment of their impact on human death is invaluable for influenza planning but presents a substantial challenge, as current approaches rely mostly on intensive and unbiased influenza surveillance. In this study, by proposing a novel host-virus interaction model, we have established a positive correlation between the excess mortalities caused by viral strains of distinct antigenicity and their antigenic distances to their previous strains for each (sub)type of seasonal influenza viruses. Based on this relationship, we further develop a method to rapidly assess the mortality burden of influenza A(H1N1) virus by accurately predicting the antigenic distance between A(H1N1) strains. Rapid estimation of influenza mortality burden for new seasonal strains should help formulate a cost-effective response for influenza control and prevention.

In epidemiology, investigators usually rely on surveillance data to assess the impact of an influenza virus on human health. However, accurate assessment of the influenza mortality burden at the early stage of influenza infection is rather challenging because the early influenza surveillance data are very limited and prone to bias as well. This speaks to an urgent need for the development of a more effective method for rapid and accurate estimation of influenza mortality burden. By proposing a novel host-virus interaction model, we have established a quantitative relationship between the antigenic variation of human influenza virus and its mortality burden. Based on this relationship, we further develop a method to rapidly assess the mortality burden of influenza A(H1N1) virus by accurately predicting the antigenic distance between A(H1N1) strains. We believe that our work will help develop a timely and sensible influenza preparedness programme that balances the gains of public health with the social and economic costs.

Intragenic recombination as a mechanism of genetic diversity in bluetongue virus

Bluetongue (BT), caused by Bluetongue virus (BTV), is an economically important disease affecting sheep, deer, cattle, and goats. Since 1998, a series of BT outbreaks have spread across much of southern and central Europe. To study why the epidemiology of the virus happens to change, it is important to fully know the mechanisms resulting in its genetic diversity. Gene mutation and segment reassortment have been considered as the key forces driving the evolution of BTV. However, it is still unknown whether intragenic recombination can occur and contribute to the process in the virus. We present here several BTV groups containing mosaic genes to reveal that intragenic recombination can take place between the virus strains and play a potential role in bringing novel BTV lineages.

Evasion of natural killer cells by influenza virus

NK cells are important innate immune effectors during influenza virus infection. However, the influenza virus seems able to use several tactics to counter NK cell recognition for immune evasion. In this review, we will summarize and discuss recent advances regarding the understanding of NK cell evasion mechanisms manipulated by the influenza virus to facilitate its rapid replication inside the respiratory epithelial cells.

Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2)

The global migration patterns of influenza viruses have profound implications for the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the disease. We developed a novel approach to reconstruct the genetic history of human influenza A (H3N2) collected worldwide over 1998 to 2009 and used it to infer the global network of influenza transmission. Consistent with previous models, we find that China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of this global network. However, we also find that strains of influenza circulate outside of Asia for multiple seasons, persisting through dynamic migration between northern and southern regions. The USA acts as the primary hub of temperate transmission and, together with China and Southeast Asia, forms the trunk of influenza's evolutionary tree. These findings suggest that antiviral use outside of China and Southeast Asia may lead to the evolution of long-term local and potentially global antiviral resistance. Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions.

Swine-origin influenza-virus-induced acute lung injury: Novel or classical pathogenesis?

Influenza viruses are common respiratory pathogens in humans and can cause serious infection that leads to the development of pneumonia. Due to their host-range diversity, genetic and antigenic diversity, and potential to reassort genetically in vivo, influenza A viruses are continual sources of novel influenza strains that lead to the emergence of periodic epidemics and outbreaks in humans. Thus, newly emerging viral diseases are always major threats to public health. In March 2009, a novel influenza virus suddenly emerged and caused a worldwide pandemic. The novel pandemic influenza virus was genetically and antigenically distinct from previous seasonal human influenza A/H1N1 viruses; it was identified to have originated from pigs, and further genetic analysis revealed it as a subtype of A/H1N1, thus later called a swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1. Since the novel virus emerged, epidemiological surveys and research on experimental animal models have been conducted, and characteristics of the novel influenza virus have been determined but the exact mechanisms of pulmonary pathogenesis remain to be elucidated. In this editorial, we summarize and discuss the recent pandemic caused by the novel swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1 with a focus on the mechanism of pathogenesis to obtain an insight into potential therapeutic strategies.

Intra- and interhost evolutionary dynamics of equine influenza virus

Determining the evolutionary basis of cross-species transmission and immune evasion is key to understanding the mechanisms that control the emergence of either new viruses or novel antigenic variants with pandemic potential. The hemagglutinin glycoprotein of influenza A viruses is a critical host range determinant and a major target of neutralizing antibodies. Equine influenza virus (EIV) is a significant pathogen of the horse that causes periodical outbreaks of disease even in populations with high vaccination coverage. EIV has also jumped the species barrier and emerged as a novel respiratory pathogen in dogs, canine influenza virus. We studied the dynamics of equine influenza virus evolution in horses at the intrahost level and how this evolutionary process is affected by interhost transmission in a natural setting. To this end, we performed clonal sequencing of the hemagglutinin 1 gene derived from individual animals at different times postinfection. Our results show that despite the population consensus sequence remaining invariant, genetically distinct subpopulations persist during the course of infection and are also transmitted, with some variants likely to change antigenicity. We also detected a natural case of mixed infection in an animal infected during an outbreak of equine influenza, raising the possibility of reassortment between different strains of virus. In sum, our data suggest that transmission bottlenecks may not be as narrow as originally perceived and that the genetic diversity required to adapt to new host species may be partially present in the donor host and potentially transmitted to the recipient host.

Evolutionary dynamics of the N1 neuraminidases of the main lineages of influenza A viruses

Influenza A virus infects a wide range of hosts including birds, humans, pigs, horses, and other mammals. Because hosts differ in immune system structure and demography, it is therefore expected that host populations leave different imprints on the viral genome. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary trajectory of the main lineages of N1 type neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences of influenza A viruses by estimating their evolutionary rates and the selection pressures exerted upon them. We also estimated the time of emergence of these lineages. The Eurasian (avian-like) and North American (classical) swine lineages, the human (seasonal) and avian H5N1 lineages, and a long persisting avian lineage were studied and compared. Nucleotide substitution rates ranged from 1.9x10(-3) to 4.3x10(-3) substitutions per site per year, with the H5N1 lineage estimated to have the greatest rate. The evolutionary rates of the H1N1 human lineage appeared to be slightly greater after it re-emerged in 1977 than before it disappeared in the 1950s. Comparing across the lineages, substitution rates appeared to correlate with the number of positively selected sites and with the degree of asymmetry of the phylogenetic trees. Some lineages had strongly asymmetric trees, implying repeated genotype replacement and narrow genetic diversity. Positively selected sites were identified in all lineages, with the H5N1 lineage having the largest number. A great number of isolates of the H5N1 lineage were sequenced in a short time period and the phylogeny of the lineage was more symmetric. We speculate that the rate and selection estimations made for this lineage could have been influenced by sampling and may not represent the long-term trends.

Reassortment networks for investigating the evolution of segmented viruses

Many viruses of interest, such as influenza A, have distinct segments in their genome. The evolution of these viruses involves mutation and reassortment, where segments are interchanged between viruses that coinfect a host. Phylogenetic trees can be constructed to investigate the mutation-driven evolution of individual viral segments. However, reassortment events among viral genomes are not well depicted in such bifurcating trees. We propose the concept of reassortment networks to analyze the evolution of segmented viruses. These are layered graphs in which the layers represent evolutionary stages such as a temporal series of seasons in which influenza viruses are isolated. Nodes represent viral isolates and reassortment events between pairs of isolates. Edges represent evolutionary steps, while weights on edges represent edit costs of reassortment and mutation events. Paths represent possible transformation series among viruses. The length of each path is the sum edit cost of the events required to transform one virus into another. In order to analyze tau stages of evolution of n viruses with segments of maximum length m, we first compute the pairwise distances between all corresponding segments of all viruses in O(m2n2) time using dynamic programming. The reassortment network, with O(taun2) nodes, is then constructed using these distances. The ancestors and descendents of a specific virus can be traced via shortest paths in this network, which can be found in O(taun3) time.

Theoretical aspects of immunity

The immune system recognizes a myriad of invading pathogens and their toxic products. It does so with a finite repertoire of antibodies and T cell receptors. We here describe theories that quantify the dynamics of the immune system. We describe how the immune system recognizes antigens by searching the large space of receptor molecules. We consider in some detail the theories that quantify the immune response to influenza and dengue fever. We review theoretical descriptions of the complementary evolution of pathogens that occurs in response to immune system pressure. Methods including bioinformatics, molecular simulation, random energy models, and quantum field theory contribute to a theoretical understanding of aspects of immunity.

Genome packaging in influenza A virus

The negative-sense RNA genome of influenza A virus is composed of eight segments, which encode 12 proteins between them. At the final stage of viral assembly, these genomic virion (v)RNAs are incorporated into the virion as it buds from the apical plasma membrane of the cell. Genome segmentation confers evolutionary advantages on the virus, but also poses a problem during virion assembly as at least one copy of each of the eight segments is required to produce a fully infectious virus particle. Historically, arguments have been presented in favour of a specific packaging mechanism that ensures incorporation of a full genome complement, as well as for an alternative model in which segments are chosen at random but packaged in sufficient numbers to ensure that a reasonable proportion of virions are viable. The question has seen a resurgence of interest in recent years leading to a consensus that the vast majority of virions contain no more than eight segments and that a specific mechanism does indeed function to select one copy of each vRNA. This review summarizes work leading to this conclusion. In addition, we describe recent progress in identifying the specific packaging signals and discuss likely mechanisms by which these RNA elements might operate.

Evolutionary trends of A(H1N1) influenza virus hemagglutinin since 1918

The Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is spreading to numerous countries and causing many human deaths. Although the symptoms in humans are mild at present, fears are that further mutations in the virus could lead to a potentially more dangerous outbreak in subsequent months. As the primary immunity-eliciting antigen, hemagglutinin (HA) is the major agent for host-driven antigenic drift in A(H3N2) virus. However, whether and how the evolution of HA is influenced by existing immunity is poorly understood for A(H1N1). Here, by analyzing hundreds of A(H1N1) HA sequences since 1918, we show the first evidence that host selections are indeed present in A(H1N1) HAs. Among a subgroup of human A(H1N1) HAs between 1918∼2008, we found strong diversifying (positive) selection at HA₁ 156 and 190. We also analyzed the evolutionary trends at HA₁ 190 and 225 that are critical determinants for receptor-binding specificity of A(H1N1) HA. Different A(H1N1) viruses appeared to favor one of these two sites in host-driven antigenic drift: epidemic A(H1N1) HAs favor HA₁ 190 while the 1918 pandemic and swine HAs favor HA₁ 225. Thus, our results highlight the urgency to understand the interplay between antigenic drift and receptor binding in HA evolution, and provide molecular signatures for monitoring future antigenically drifted 2009 pandemic and seasonal A(H1N1) influenza viruses.

Unifying vertical and nonvertical evolution: a stochastic ARG-based framework

Evolutionary biologists have introduced numerous statistical approaches to explore nonvertical evolution, such as horizontal gene transfer, recombination, and genomic reassortment, through collections of Markov-dependent gene trees. These tree collections allow for inference of nonvertical evolution, but only indirectly, making findings difficult to interpret and models difficult to generalize. An alternative approach to explore nonvertical evolution relies on phylogenetic networks. These networks provide a framework to model nonvertical evolution but leave unanswered questions such as the statistical significance of specific nonvertical events. In this paper, we begin to correct the shortcomings of both approaches by introducing the "stochastic model for reassortment and transfer events" (SMARTIE) drawing upon ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs). ARGs are directed graphs that allow for formal probabilistic inference on vertical speciation events and nonvertical evolutionary events. We apply SMARTIE to phylogenetic data. Because of this, we can typically infer a single most probable ARG, avoiding coarse population dynamic summary statistics. In addition, a focus on phylogenetic data suggests novel probability distributions on ARGs. To make inference with our model, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to approximate the posterior distribution of SMARTIE. Using the BEAST phylogenetic software as a foundation, the sampler employs a parallel computing approach that allows for inference on large-scale data sets. To demonstrate SMARTIE, we explore 2 separate phylogenetic applications, one involving pathogenic Leptospirochete and the other Saccharomyces.

The role of genomics in tracking the evolution of influenza A virus

Influenza A virus causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics of short-term respiratory infections associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. The pandemics occur when new human-transmissible viruses that have the major surface protein of influenza A viruses from other host species are introduced into the human population. Between such rare events, the evolution of influenza is shaped by antigenic drift: the accumulation of mutations that result in changes in exposed regions of the viral surface proteins. Antigenic drift makes the virus less susceptible to immediate neutralization by the immune system in individuals who have had a previous influenza infection or vaccination. A biannual reevaluation of the vaccine composition is essential to maintain its effectiveness due to this immune escape. The study of influenza genomes is key to this endeavor, increasing our understanding of antigenic drift and enhancing the accuracy of vaccine strain selection. Recent large-scale genome sequencing and antigenic typing has considerably improved our understanding of influenza evolution: epidemics around the globe are seeded from a reservoir in East-Southeast Asia with year-round prevalence of influenza viruses; antigenically similar strains predominate in epidemics worldwide for several years before being replaced by a new antigenic cluster of strains. Future in-depth studies of the influenza reservoir, along with large-scale data mining of genomic resources and the integration of epidemiological, genomic, and antigenic data, should enhance our understanding of antigenic drift and improve the detection and control of antigenically novel emerging strains.

Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models

The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a “continuous antigenic drift” scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level.

Molecular epidemiology of feline immunodeficiency virus in the domestic cat (Felis catus)

Studying the evolutionary mechanisms of feline immunodeficiency virus in the domestic cat (Felis catus), FIV(Fca), provides a good comparison to other lentiviruses, such as HIV and FIV(Pco) in the cougar (Puma concolor). We review the current epidemiological and evolutionary findings of FIV(Fca). In addition to the five accepted FIV(Fca), subtypes, several recent phylogenetic studies have found strains that form separate clades, indicative of novel subtypes. In New Zealand cats, these strains of unknown subtype have been found to be involved in complex patterns of intergenic recombination, and whole genome sequences are required to resolve these. Evidence of recombination events has been documented with the highest levels in the env gene, the region involved in host cell receptor recognition. Several cases of FIV(Fca) multiple infections, both inter- and intra-subtype, have been reported. The findings of both unknown subtypes and relatively high levels of recombination suggest the need for further testing of the current vaccine. Limited studies on the evolutionary rate of FIV(Fca) document a value twice to three times that of FIV in the cougar, a result suggesting the different levels of co-adaptation between the viruses and their respective hosts. We studied the tissue distribution of FIV(Fca) in feral domestic cats, finding the first case of FIV compartmentalisation, a phenomenon well documented in HIV-1 patients.

RNA virus genomics: a world of possibilities

The increasing availability of complete genome sequences of RNA viruses has the potential to shed new light on fundamental aspects of their biology. Here, I use case studies of 3 RNA viruses to explore the impact of genomic sequence data, with particular emphasis on influenza A virus. Notably, the studies of RNA virus genomics undertaken to date largely focused on issues of evolution and epidemiology, and they have given these disciplines new impetus. However, genomic data have so far made fewer inroads into areas of more direct importance for disease, prevention, and control; thus, harnessing their full potential remains an important goal.

Understanding influenza transmission, immunity and pandemic threats

Abstract  The current pandemic threat can be best understood within an ecological framework that takes account of the history of past pandemics caused by influenza A, the relationships between pandemic and seasonal spread of influenza viruses, and the importance of immunity and behavioural responses in human populations. Isolated populations without recent exposure to seasonal influenza seem more susceptible to new pandemic viruses, and much collateral evidence suggests that this is due to immunity directed against epitopes shared between pandemic and previously circulating strains of inter‐pandemic influenza A virus. In the highly connected modern world, most populations are regularly exposed to non‐pandemic viruses, which can even boost immunity without causing influenza symptoms. Such naturally‐induced immunity helps to explain the low attack‐rates of seasonal influenza, as well as the moderate attack‐rates in many urbanized populations affected by 1918–1919 and later pandemics. The effectiveness of immunity, even against seasonal influenza, diminishes over time because of antigenic drift in circulating viruses and waning of post‐exposure immune responses. Epidemiological evidence suggests that cross‐protection against a new pandemic strain could fade even faster. Nevertheless, partial protection, even of short duration, induced by prior seasonal influenza or vaccination against it, could provide important protection in the early stages of a new pandemic.

The era of genomic epidemiology

The recent revolution in genomics is already having a profound impact on the practice of epidemiology. The purpose of this commentary is to demonstrate how genomics and epidemiology will continue to rely heavily on each other, now and in the future, by illustrating a number of interaction points between these 2 disciplines: (1) the use of genomics to estimate disease heritability; (2) the impact of genomics on analytical study design; (3) how genome-wide data can be employed to effectively overcome residual population stratification arising from selection bias; (4) the importance of genomics as a tool in epidemiological investigation; (5) the importance of epidemiology in the collection of adequately phenotyped samples for genomics studies, and (6) for unraveling the clinical and therapeutic relevance of genetic variants once they are discovered.

Systems-based candidate genes for human response to influenza infection

Influenza A is a serious respiratory illness that can be debilitating and may cause complications leading to hospitalization and death. The outcome of infection with the influenza A virus is determined by a complex interplay of viral and host factors. With the ongoing threat of seasonal influenza and the potential emergence of new, more virulent strains of influenza viruses, we need to develop a better understanding of genetic variation in the human population and its association with severe outcomes from influenza infection. We propose a list of approximately 100 systems-based candidate genes for future study of the genetic basis of influenza disease and immunity in humans, based on evidence in the published literature for their potential role in the pathogenesis of this infection: binding of the virus to receptors on the host cell surface; cleavability of HA by host proteases; virus replication in host cells; destruction of host cells by apoptosis; state of immunocompetence of the individual host; and viral infections predisposing to bacterial infection.

Darwinian selection for sites of Asn-linked glycosylation in phylogenetically disparate eukaryotes and viruses

Numerous protists and rare fungi have truncated Asn-linked glycan precursors and lack N-glycan-dependent quality control (QC) systems for glycoprotein folding in the endoplasmic reticulum. Here, we show that the abundance of sequons (NXT or NXS), which are sites for N-glycosylation of secreted and membrane proteins, varies by more than a factor of 4 among phylogenetically diverse eukaryotes, based on a few variables. There is positive correlation between the density of sequons and the AT content of coding regions, although no causality can be inferred. In contrast, there appears to be Darwinian selection for sequons containing Thr, but not Ser, in eukaryotes that have N-glycan-dependent QC systems. Selection for sequons with Thr, which nearly doubles the sequon density in human secreted and membrane proteins, occurs by an increased conditional probability that Asn and Thr are present in sequons rather than elsewhere. Increasing sequon densities of the hemagglutinin (HA) of influenza viruses A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 during the past few decades of human infection also result from an increased conditional probability that Asn, Thr, and Ser are present in sequons rather than elsewhere. In contrast, there is no selection on sequons by this mechanism in HA of A/H5N1 or 2009 A/H1N1 (Swine flu). Very strong selection for sequons with both Thr and Ser in glycoprotein of M(r) 120,000 (gp120) of HIV and related retroviruses results from this same mechanism, as well as amino acid composition bias and increases in AT content. We conclude that there is Darwinian selection for sequons in phylogenetically disparate eukaryotes and viruses.

Non-random reassortment in human influenza A viruses

Background  The influenza A virus has two basic modes of evolution. Because of a high error rate in the process of replication by RNA polymerase, the viral genome drifts via accumulated mutations. The second mode of evolution is termed a shift, which results from the reassortment of the eight segments of this virus. When two different influenza viruses co‐infect the same host cell, new virions can be released that contain segments from both parental strains. This type of shift has been the source of at least two of the influenza pandemics in the 20th century (H2N2 in 1957 and H3N2 in 1968).

Objectives  The methods to measure these genetic shifts have not yet provided a quantitative answer to questions such as: what is the rate of genetic reassortment during a local epidemic? Are all possible reassortments equally likely or are there preferred patterns?

Methods  To answer these questions and provide a quantitative way to measure genetic shifts, a new method for detecting reassortments from nucleotide sequence data was created that does not rely upon phylogenetic analysis. Two different sequence databases were used: human H3N2 viruses isolated in New York State between 1995 and 2006, and human H3N2 viruses isolated in New Zealand between 2000 and 2005.

Results  Using this new method, we were able to reproduce all the reassortments found in earlier works, as well as detect, with very high confidence, many reassortments that were not detected by previous authors. We obtain a lower bound on the reassortment rate of 2–3 events per year, and find a clear preference for reassortments involving only one segment, most often hemagglutinin or neuraminidase. At a lower frequency several segments appear to reassort in vivo in defined groups as has been suggested previously in vitro.

Conclusions  Our results strongly suggest that the patterns of reassortment in the viral population are not random. Deciphering these patterns can be a useful tool in attempting to understand and predict possible influenza pandemics.

Influenza outbreaks

Influenza is a virus that causes considerable morbidity and mortality in human populations every year. This fact, coupled with its perceived pandemic potential, means that influenza features prominently in both scientific literature and the media. In this review we focus on the biological assumptions behind theoretical attempts to understand the seasonal and evolutionary dynamics of influenza through mathematical modelling and suggest that the largely unchallenged dogma upon which most efforts are currently based is sorely lacking.

Introduction. Ecological immunology

An organism's fitness is critically reliant on its immune system to provide protection against parasites and pathogens. The structure of even simple immune systems is surprisingly complex and clearly will have been moulded by the organism's ecology. The aim of this review and the theme issue is to examine the role of different ecological factors on the evolution of immunity. Here, we will provide a general framework of the field by contextualizing the main ecological factors, including interactions with parasites, other types of biotic as well as abiotic interactions, intraspecific selective constraints (life-history trade-offs, sexual selection) and population genetic processes. We then elaborate the resulting immunological consequences such as the diversity of defence mechanisms (e.g. avoidance behaviour, resistance, tolerance), redundancy and protection against immunopathology, life-history integration of the immune response and shared immunity within a community (e.g. social immunity and microbiota-mediated protection). Our review summarizes the concepts of current importance and directs the reader to promising future research avenues that will deepen our understanding of the defence against parasites and pathogens.

Homologous recombination is apparent in infectious bursal disease virus

Infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) is a non-enveloped double-stranded RNA virus belonging to the Birnaviridae family. It shows substantial variation in the major antigen region of the viral capsid protein VP2, where a hypervariable region plays a key role in the virulence of IBDV and its epitope. This study identifies several putative recombinants from previously published data to suggest that homologous recombination may naturally occur between different IBDV strains. In addition, a novel very virulence sublineage emerges in the VP2 phylogenic tree, comprising three putative recombination strains isolated in Korea and China, KSH, KK1 and SH-h. The major putative parents of the three mosaics are descended from the vaccine lineage while their hypervariable regions from vvIBDV. These findings also suggest that vaccine coverage may have influence on the evolution and genetic diversity of IBDV, resulting in a novel group with vvIBDV phenotype through recombination with wild IBDV.

Human influenza A viruses isolated in South America: genetic relations, adamantane resistance and vaccine strain match

In order to gain insight into the genetic relations among H3N2 Influenza A virus (IAV) circulating in the South American region from 1999 to 2007, to investigate the presence of adamantane-resistant strains in this region, and to establish the genetic relations among that strains and vaccine strains recommended for the Southern hemisphere, 11 haemagglutinin (HA) H3 IAV sequences obtained from Uruguayan patients were aligned with corresponding sequences from 68 H3 IAV strains isolated in South America and 9 H3 IAV vaccine strains. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree analysis was performed using the GTR evolutionary model. The results of these studies indicate that multiple clades co-circulate during most influenza seasons in South America. Strikingly, one strain isolated in Uruguay in 2005 and all strains isolated in that country during the 2007 season bear an HA adamantane-resistant polymorphism. No other strain isolated in South America previous to the 2005 season bears that HA characteristic amino acid change. Only vaccine strains recommended for the 2007 season were assigned to the same cluster with all available IAV isolated in South America for that season. Evolution of IAV in this region appears to be shaped by re-introduction of new strains.

Directionality in the evolution of influenza A haemagglutinin

The evolution of haemagglutinin (HA), an important influenza virus antigen, has been the subject of intensive research for more than two decades. Many characteristics of HA's sequence evolution are captured by standard Markov chain substitution models. Such models assign equal fitness to all accessible amino acids at a site. We show, however, that such models strongly underestimate the number of homoplastic amino acid substitutions during the course of HA's evolution, i.e. substitutions that repeatedly give rise to the same amino acid at a site. We develop statistics to detect individual homoplastic events and find that they preferentially occur at positively selected epitopic sites. Our results suggest that the evolution of the influenza A HA, including evolution by positive selection, is strongly affected by the long-term site-specific preferences for individual amino acids.

Homologous recombination as an evolutionary force in the avian influenza A virus

Avian influenza A viruses (AIVs), including the H5N1, H9N2, and H7N7 subtypes, have been directly transmitted to humans, raising concerns over the possibility of a new influenza pandemic. To prevent a future avian influenza pandemic, it is very important to fully understand the molecular basis driving the change in AIV virulence and host tropism. Although virulent variants of other viruses have been generated by homologous recombination, the occurrence of homologous recombination within AIV segments is controversial and far from proven. This study reports three circulating H9N2 AIVs with similar mosaic PA genes descended from H9N2 and H5N1. Additionally, many homologous recombinants are also found deposited in GenBank. Recombination events can occur in PB2, PB1, PA, HA, and NP segments and between lineages of the same/different serotype. These results collectively demonstrate that intragenic recombination plays a role in driving the evolution of AIVs, potentially resulting in effects on AIV virulence and host tropism changes.

Surviving the bottleneck: transmission mutants and the evolution of microbial populations

The ability of microbial populations to increase fitness through fixation of mutants with an increased growth rate has been well described. In experimental studies, this is often the only way fitness can be increased. In natural settings, however, fitness can also be improved by increasing the ability of the microbe to transmit from one host to the next. For many pathogens, transmission includes a phase outside the host during which they need to survive before the chance of reinfecting a new host occurs. In such a situation, a reduced death rate during this phase will lead to improved fitness. Here, we compute the fixation probability of mutants that better survive the transmission bottleneck during the evolution of microbial populations. We derive analytical results that show that transmission mutants are often likely to occur and that their importance relative to growth mutants increases as the population decline during the transmission phase increases. We confirm our theoretical results with numerical simulations and suggest specific experiments that can be done to test our predictions.