Adaptive designs in clinical trials: why use them, and how to run and report them

Overcoming Barriers to Parkinson Disease Trial Participation: Increasing Diversity and Novel Designs for Recruitment and Retention

Parkinson disease (PD) is highly prevalent among neurodegenerative diseases, affecting a diverse patient population. Despite a general willingness of patients to participate in clinical trials, only a subset of patients enroll in them. Understanding the barriers to trial participation will help to alleviate this discrepancy and improve trial participation. Underrepresented minorities, older patients, and patients with more medical comorbidities in particular are underrepresented in research. In clinical trials, this has the effect of delaying trial completion, exacerbating disparities, and limiting our ability to generalize study results. Efforts to improve trial design and recruitment are necessary to ensure study enrollment reflects the diversity of patients with PD. At the trial design level, broadening inclusion criteria, attending to participant burden, and focusing on trial efficiency may help. At the recruitment stage, increasing awareness, with traditional outreach or digital approaches; improving engagement, particularly with community physicians; and developing targeted recruitment efforts can also help improve enrollment of underrepresented patient groups. The use of technology, for virtual visits, technology-based objective measures, and community engagement, can also reduce participant burden and increase recruitment. By designing trials to consider these barriers to trial participation, we can improve not only the access to research for all our patients but also the quality and generalizability of clinical research in PD.

Implications for post critical illness trial design: sub-phenotyping trajectories of functional recovery among sepsis survivors

BACKGROUND

Patients who survive critical illness suffer from a significant physical disability. The impact of rehabilitation strategies on health-related quality of life is inconsistent, with population heterogeneity cited as one potential confounder. This secondary analysis aimed to (1) examine trajectories of functional recovery in critically ill patients to delineate sub-phenotypes and (2) to assess differences between these cohorts in both clinical characteristics and clinimetric properties of physical function assessment tools.

METHODS

Two hundred ninety-one adult sepsis survivors were followed-up for 24 months by telephone interviews. Physical function was assessed using the Physical Component Score (PCS) of the Short Form-36 Questionnaire (SF-36) and Activities of Daily Living and the Extra Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment (XSFMA-F/B). Longitudinal trajectories were clustered by factor analysis. Logistical regression analyses were applied to patient characteristics potentially determining cluster allocation. Responsiveness, floor and ceiling effects and concurrent validity were assessed within clusters.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-nine patients completed 24 months of follow-up, presenting overall low PCS scores. Two distinct sub-cohorts were identified, exhibiting complete recovery or persistent impairment. A third sub-cohort could not be classified into either trajectory. Age, education level and number of co-morbidities were independent determinants of poor recovery (AUROC 0.743 ((95%CI 0.659-0.826), p < 0.001). Those with complete recovery trajectories demonstrated high levels of ceiling effects in physical function (PF) (15%), role physical (RP) (45%) and body pain (BP) (57%) domains of the SF-36. Those with persistent impairment demonstrated high levels of floor effects in the same domains: PF (21%), RP (71%) and BP (12%). The PF domain demonstrated high responsiveness between ICU discharge and at 6 months and was predictive of a persistent impairment trajectory (AUROC 0.859 (95%CI 0.804-0.914), p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Within sepsis survivors, two distinct recovery trajectories of physical recovery were demonstrated. Older patients with more co-morbidities and lower educational achievements were more likely to have a persistent physical impairment trajectory. In regard to trajectory prediction, the PF score of the SF-36 was more responsive than the PCS and could be considered for primary outcomes. Future trials should consider adaptive trial designs that can deal with non-responders or sub-cohort specific outcome measures more effectively.

Response to Placebo in Fragile X Syndrome Clinical Trials: An Initial Analysis

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is the leading cause of inherited intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorder. Individuals with FXS often present with a wide range of cognitive deficits and problem behaviors. Educational, behavioral and pharmacological interventions are used to manage these and other complex issues affecting individuals with FXS. Despite the success of preclinical models and early-phase drug clinical studies in FXS, large-scale randomized-controlled trials have failed to meet primary endpoints. Currently, no targeted or disease-modifying treatments for FXS have received regulatory approval. Here, we examined the placebo response in FXS clinical trials conducted between 2006 and 2018. Specifically, we performed a meta-analysis of placebo-treated groups in eight double-blind, randomized controlled trials. Placebo groups demonstrated significant improvements on caregiver-rated efficacy endpoints, which were greater in adolescents and adults than in children. Among the latter measures, the Visual Analog Scale scores displayed the greatest improvements, whereas the positive effects on the Vineland-II Adaptive Behavior Composite and the Aberrant Behavior Checklist-Community/fragile X version were statistically significant in both children and adolescents/adults. Although the Clinical Global Impression scale Improvement appears to have exhibited a substantial placebo effect in multiple clinical trials in FXS, limited data availability for meta-analysis, prevented us from drawing conclusions. No placebo-related improvements were observed in performance-rated measures. These findings raise substantial concerns about placebo effects in outcome measures commonly used in the randomized-controlled trials in FXS and suggest several potential improvements in the study design and implementation of such trials. Considering the small number of trials available for this study, larger and more detailed follow up meta-analyses are needed. Meanwhile, efforts to improve the measurement properties of endpoints and rater training in drug trials in FXS should be prioritized.

Personalized cancer therapy prioritization based on driver alteration co-occurrence patterns

Identification of actionable genomic vulnerabilities is key to precision oncology. Utilizing a large-scale drug screening in patient-derived xenografts, we uncover driver gene alteration connections, derive driver co-occurrence (DCO) networks, and relate these to drug sensitivity. Our collection of 53 drug-response predictors attains an average balanced accuracy of 58% in a cross-validation setting, rising to 66% for a subset of high-confidence predictions. We experimentally validated 12 out of 14 predictions in mice and adapted our strategy to obtain drug-response models from patients’ progression-free survival data. Our strategy reveals links between oncogenic alterations, increasing the clinical impact of genomic profiling.

Pragmatic, adaptive clinical trials: Is 2020 the dawning of a new age?

Given the high case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2, for which there is no cure and no vaccine, clinicians are forced to make decisions about how best to manage patients with limited high-quality evidence to guide treatment. Traditional randomized controlled trials provide strong experimental evidence, however, tend to be slow, inflexible, and have limited generalizability. Adaptive and pragmatic designs are an attractive alternative, which meet our ethical obligation during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to balance speed, agility, and generalizability with both prospective study and scientific rigor.

Adaptive design methods in dialysis clinical trials: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Adaptive design methods are a potential solution to improve efficiency of clinical trials but their uptake in dialysis is unknown. We aim to investigate the use of adaptive design methods in dialysis clinical trials and to cultivate further adoption of adaptive design methods by the nephrology community.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols guidelines and the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook. We will perform a literature search through MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE and CENTRAL, a detailed data extraction of trial characteristics and a narrative synthesis of the data. There will be no language restrictions. We will estimate the percentage of adaptive clinical trials per year in dialysis. Subgroup analysis will be performed by dialysis modality, funder and geographical location.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval will not be required for this study as data will be obtained from publicly available clinical trials. We will disseminate our results in a peer-reviewed publication. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER.

The P Value Line Dance: When Does the Music Stop?

When should a trial stop? Such a seemingly innocent question evokes concerns of type I and II errors among those who believe that certainty can be the product of uncertainty and among researchers who have been told that they need to carefully calculate sample sizes, consider multiplicity, and not spend P values on interim analyses. However, the endeavor to dichotomize evidence into significant and nonsignificant has led to the basic driving force of science, namely uncertainty, to take a back seat. In this viewpoint we discuss that if testing the null hypothesis is the ultimate goal of science, then we need not worry about writing protocols, consider ethics, apply for funding, or run any experiments at all-all null hypotheses will be rejected at some point-everything has an effect. The job of science should be to unearth the uncertainties of the effects of treatments, not to test their difference from zero. We also show the fickleness of P values, how they may one day point to statistically significant results; and after a few more participants have been recruited, the once statistically significant effect suddenly disappears. We show plots which we hope would intuitively highlight that all assessments of evidence will fluctuate over time. Finally, we discuss the remedy in the form of Bayesian methods, where uncertainty leads; and which allows for continuous decision making to stop or continue recruitment, as new data from a trial is accumulated.

The ORVAC trial: a phase IV, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial of a third scheduled dose of Rotarix rotavirus vaccine in Australian Indigenous infants to improve protection against gastroenteritis: a statistical analysis plan

Objective

The purpose of this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, adaptive design trial with frequent interim analyses is to determine if Australian Indigenous children, who receive an additional (third) dose of human rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix, GlaxoSmithKline) for children aged 6 to < 12 months, would improve protection against clinically significant all-cause gastroenteritis.

Participants

Up to 1000 Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (hereafter Indigenous) infants aged 6 to < 12 months will be recruited from all regions of the Northern Territory.

Interventions

The intervention is the addition of a third scheduled dose of human monovalent rotavirus vaccine.

Co-primary and secondary outcome measures

ORVAC has two co-primary outcomes: (1) anti-rotavirus IgA seroconversion, defined as serum anti-rotavirus IgA ≥ 20 U/ml 28 to 55 days post Rotarix/placebo, and (2) time from randomisation to medical attendance for which the primary reason for presentation is acute gastroenteritis or acute diarrhoea illness before age 36 months. Secondary outcomes include (1) change in anti-rotavirus IgA log titre, (2) time from randomisation to hospitalisation with primary admission code presumed or confirmed acute diarrhoea illness before age 36 months, (3) time from randomisation to hospitalisation for which the admission is rotavirus confirmed diarrhoea illness before age 36 months and (4) time from randomisation to rotavirus infection (not necessarily requiring hospitalisation) meeting the jurisdictional definition before age 36 months.

Discussion

A detailed, prospective statistical analysis plan is presented for this Bayesian adaptive design. The plan was written by the trial statistician and details the study design, pre-specified adaptative elements, decision thresholds, statistical methods and the simulations used to evaluate the operating characteristics of the trial. As at August 2020, four interim analyses have been run, but no stopping rules have been triggered. Application of this SAP will minimise bias and supports transparent and reproducible research.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02941107. Registered on 21 October 2016

Original protocol for the study

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-032549

Pancreatic Cancer Immuno-oncology in the Era of Precision Medicine

Pancreatic malignancies carry a dismal prognosis globally, with pancreatic adenocarcinomas (PDAC) being particularly aggressive and stubborn. Unfortunately, several therapeutic strategies that show promise in other cancers have failed to make sizeable impact on pancreatic tumor outcomes. Responses to immunotherapies are especially rare in pancreatic cancer, and patients are in need of innovative approaches that can result in more durable responses. Current research in preclinical models and humans has suggested this resistance is due to a uniquely inflammatory and dysfunctional tumor microenvironment; these findings lay the groundwork for targeting these barriers and improving outcomes. Clinical analyses have also revealed unprecedented heterogeneity in tumor and stromal biology of PDAC, underscoring the need for more personalized approaches and combinatorial therapies. This review will highlight the current state of translational research focusing on PDAC immunity, summarize ongoing clinical efforts to tackle PDAC vulnerabilities, and underscore some unresolved challenges in implementing therapies more broadly. A better understanding of immune contexture and tumor heterogeneity in this disease will greatly accelerate drug discovery and implementation of precision medicine for PDAC.

Machine learning for clinical trials in the era of COVID-19

The world is in the midst of a pandemic. We still know little about the disease COVID-19 or about the virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes it. We do not have a vaccine or a treatment (aside from managing symptoms). We do not know if recovery from COVID-19 produces immunity, and if so for how long, hence we do not know if "herd immunity" will eventually reduce the risk or if a successful vaccine can be developed - and this knowledge may be a long time coming. In the meantime, the COVID-19 pandemic is presenting enormous challenges to medical research, and to clinical trials in particular. This paper identifies some of those challenges and suggests ways in which machine learning can help in response to those challenges. We identify three areas of challenge: ongoing clinical trials for non-COVID-19 drugs; clinical trials for repurposing drugs to treat COVID-19, and clinical trials for new drugs to treat COVID-19. Within each of these areas, we identify aspects for which we believe machine learning can provide invaluable assistance.

Severe and enduring anorexia nervosa: Update and observations about the current clinical reality

Several objectives underlie the current article. First, to review historical diagnostic issues and clinical strategies for treating SE-AN. Second, to provide an overview of recent evidence informed strategies and clinical innovations for the treatment of SE-AN. Third, based on the authors' collective clinical and research experience, we offer eight observations that we believe capture the current clinical experience of patients with SE-AN. Some of these observations represent empirically testable hypotheses, but all are designed to generate a meaningful discussion about the treatment of this group of individuals with eating disorders. Finally, we hope to call clinicians, scientists, professional organizations, advocates, and policy makers to action to attend to critical issues related to the care of individuals with SE-AN. We believe that an international discussion could clarify areas of need for these patients and identify opportunities for clinical innovation that would enhance the lives of individuals with SE-AN and their families.

Study of alteplase for respiratory failure in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2/COVID-19: Study design of the phase IIa STARS trial

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a large surge of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Prior phase I trials (non-COVID-19) demonstrated improvement in pulmonary function in patients ARDS using fibrinolytic therapy. A follow-up trial using the widely available tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) alteplase is now needed to assess optimal dosing and safety in this critically ill patient population.

Objective

To describe the design and rationale of a phase IIa trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of alteplase treatment for moderate/severe COVID-19-induced ARDS.

Patients/Methods

A rapidly adaptive, pragmatic, open-label, randomized, controlled, phase IIa clinical trial will be conducted with 3 groups: intravenous alteplase 50 mg, intravenous alteplase 100 mg, and control (standard-of-care). Inclusion criteria are known/suspected COVID-19 infection with PaO2/FiO2 ratio <150 mm Hg for > 4 hours despite maximal mechanical ventilation management. Alteplase will be delivered through an initial bolus of 50 mg or 100 mg followed by heparin infusion for systemic anticoagulation, with alteplase redosing if there is a >20% PaO2/FiO2 improvement not sustained by 24 hours.

Results

The primary outcome is improvement in PaO2/FiO2 at 48 hours after randomization. Other outcomes include ventilator- and intensive care unit-free days, successful extubation (no reintubation ≤3 days after initial extubation), and mortality. Fifty eligible patients will be enrolled in a rapidly adaptive, modified stepped-wedge design with 4 looks at the data.

Conclusion

Findings will provide timely information on the safety, efficacy, and optimal dosing of t-PA to treat moderate/severe COVID-19-induced ARDS, which can be rapidly adapted to a phase III trial (NCT04357730; FDA IND 149634).

Adaptive design implementation in confirmatory trials: methods, practical considerations and case studies

The rapidly changing drug development landscapes have brought unique challenges to sponsors in designing clinical trials in a faster and more efficient way. With the ability to accelerate development timeline, reduce redundant sample size, and select the right dose and patient population during the clinical trial, adaptive designs help to increase the probability of success of clinical trials and eventually contribute to bringing the promising drugs to patients earlier and fulfilling their unmet medical needs. Although extensive adaptive design methods have been proposed in recent years, a comprehensive review of how to implement adaptive design in the practical confirmatory trials is still lacking. In this paper, we will review the evolving history of adaptive designs, updates of newly released regulatory guidance and emerging practical adaptive designs, including but not limited to sample size re-estimation, seamless design and surrogate endpoint used in the interim analysis. Furthermore, we will discuss the current practice of adaptive design implementation by demonstrating a complex oncology seamless phase 2/3 adaptive design case study. Through this example, we will introduce the critical roles of each cross disciplinary function, communication process and important documents when adaptive designs are implemented in real-world setting.

Insulin is necessary but not sufficient: changing the therapeutic paradigm in type 1 diabetes

Despite the clear evidence that type 1 diabetes (T1D) begins well before hyperglycemia is evident, there are no clinically available disease-modifying therapies for early-stage disease. However, following the exciting results of the Teplizumab Prevention Study, the first study to demonstrate that overt T1D can be delayed with immunotherapy, there is renewed optimism that in the future, T1D will be treated before hyperglycemia develops. A different treatment paradigm is needed, as a majority of people with T1D do not meet the glycemic targets that are associated with a lower risk of T1D complications and therefore remain vulnerable to complications and shortened life expectancy. The following review will outline the history and current status of immunotherapy for T1D and highlight some challenges and ideas for the future. Although such efforts have been worldwide, we will focus particularly on the activities of Diabetes TrialNet, a National Institutes of Health consortium launched in 2004.

Efficient Adaptive Designs for Clinical Trials of Interventions for COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented response in terms of clinical research activity. An important part of this research has been focused on randomized controlled clinical trials to evaluate potential therapies for COVID-19. The results from this research need to be obtained as rapidly as possible. This presents a number of challenges associated with considerable uncertainty over the natural history of the disease and the number and characteristics of patients affected, and the emergence of new potential therapies. These challenges make adaptive designs for clinical trials a particularly attractive option. Such designs allow a trial to be modified on the basis of interim analysis data or stopped as soon as sufficiently strong evidence has been observed to answer the research question, without compromising the trial's scientific validity or integrity. In this article, we describe some of the adaptive design approaches that are available and discuss particular issues and challenges associated with their use in the pandemic setting. Our discussion is illustrated by details of four ongoing COVID-19 trials that have used adaptive designs.

Trial Registration and Outcome Reporting in Child and Pediatric Psychology: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

To examine rate of registration for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in the Journal of Pediatric Psychology (JPP) and Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology (JCCAP). Secondary aims were to investigate associations between trial characteristics and registration status and compare registered and published primary outcomes.

METHODS

RCTs published in JPP or JCCAP between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2017 were included. Secondary analyses of previously published RCTs, meta-analytic, systematic, and narrative reviews, and articles reporting primary aims related to intervention acceptability, feasibility, and/or cost-effectiveness were excluded. Trial registration status, primary registered and published outcomes, dates of registration, participant enrollment and publication, sample size, and country where the trial was conducted were extracted from articles and trial registries.

RESULTS

Of 61 RCTs included, 48% were registered. Among registered trials, only 14% were registered before participant enrollment began. Most were registered late (i.e., retrospectively; 86%) in ClinicalTrials.gov (90%). Registration status did not differ based on journal, study sample size, or geographic region where the study was conducted. A greater proportion of trials published in 2013-2017 were registered (61%) relative to those published in 2007-2012 (32%), p = .03. Among registered trials, 57% had discrepancies between registered and published primary outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings reveal low rates of prospective registration and considerable risk for incomplete or selective outcome reporting among RCTs published in JPP and JCCAP. Coordinated efforts from all stakeholders involved in the conduct and reporting of clinical child and pediatric psychology research are needed to improve transparent reporting of clinical trials.

Including non-concurrent control patients in the analysis of platform trials: is it worth it?

Background

Platform trials allow adding new experimental treatments to an on-going trial. This feature is attractive to practitioners due to improved efficiency. Nevertheless, the operating characteristics of a trial that adds arms have not been well-studied. One controversy is whether just the concurrent control data (i.e. of patients who are recruited after a new arm is added) should be used in the analysis of the newly added treatment(s), or all control data (i.e. non-concurrent and concurrent).

Methods

We investigate the benefits and drawbacks of using non-concurrent control data within a two-stage setting. We perform simulation studies to explore the impact of a linear and a step trend on the inference of the trial. We compare several analysis approaches when one includes all the control data or only concurrent control data in the analysis of the newly added treatment.

Results

When there is a positive trend and all the control data are used, the marginal power of rejecting the corresponding hypothesis and the type one error rate can be higher than the nominal value. A model-based approach adjusting for a stage effect is equivalent to using concurrent control data; an adjustment with a linear term may not guarantee valid inference when there is a non-linear trend.

Conclusions

If strict error rate control is required then non-concurrent control data should not be used; otherwise it may be beneficial if the trend is sufficiently small. On the other hand, the root mean squared error of the estimated treatment effect can be improved through using non-concurrent control data.

Phase I, II and III Trials in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A Practical Guide for the Non-specialist

In the last few decades several new molecules have been developed in the field of inflammatory bowel diseases. However, the process that leads to the approval and use of a new drug is very long, expensive and complex, consisting of various phases. There is a pre-clinical phase that is performed on animals and a clinical phase that is directed to humans. Each research phase aims to evaluate different aspects of the drug and involves a specific target group of subjects. In addition, many aspects must be considered in the evaluation of a clinical trial: randomization, presence of a control group, blind design, type of data analysis performed, and patient stratification. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of the clinical trial phases of a new drug in order to better understand and interpret their results.

The adaptive designs CONSORT extension (ACE) statement: a checklist with explanation and elaboration guideline for reporting randomised trials that use an adaptive design

Adaptive designs (ADs) allow pre-planned changes to an ongoing trial without compromising the validity of conclusions and it is essential to distinguish pre-planned from unplanned changes that may also occur. The reporting of ADs in randomised trials is inconsistent and needs improving. Incompletely reported AD randomised trials are difficult to reproduce and are hard to interpret and synthesise. This consequently hampers their ability to inform practice as well as future research and contributes to research waste. Better transparency and adequate reporting will enable the potential benefits of ADs to be realised.This extension to the Consolidated Standards Of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 statement was developed to enhance the reporting of randomised AD clinical trials. We developed an Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) guideline through a two-stage Delphi process with input from multidisciplinary key stakeholders in clinical trials research in the public and private sectors from 21 countries, followed by a consensus meeting. Members of the CONSORT Group were involved during the development process.The paper presents the ACE checklists for AD randomised trial reports and abstracts, as well as an explanation with examples to aid the application of the guideline. The ACE checklist comprises seven new items, nine modified items, six unchanged items for which additional explanatory text clarifies further considerations for ADs, and 20 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text. The ACE abstract checklist has one new item, one modified item, one unchanged item with additional explanatory text for ADs, and 15 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text.The intention is to enhance transparency and improve reporting of AD randomised trials to improve the interpretability of their results and reproducibility of their methods, results and inference. We also hope indirectly to facilitate the much-needed knowledge transfer of innovative trial designs to maximise their potential benefits. In order to encourage its wide dissemination this article is freely accessible on the BMJ and Trials journal websites."To maximise the benefit to society, you need to not just do research but do it well" Douglas G Altman.

The Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) statement: a checklist with explanation and elaboration guideline for reporting randomised trials that use an adaptive design

Adaptive designs (ADs) allow pre-planned changes to an ongoing trial without compromising the validity of conclusions and it is essential to distinguish pre-planned from unplanned changes that may also occur. The reporting of ADs in randomised trials is inconsistent and needs improving. Incompletely reported AD randomised trials are difficult to reproduce and are hard to interpret and synthesise. This consequently hampers their ability to inform practice as well as future research and contributes to research waste. Better transparency and adequate reporting will enable the potential benefits of ADs to be realised.This extension to the Consolidated Standards Of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 statement was developed to enhance the reporting of randomised AD clinical trials. We developed an Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) guideline through a two-stage Delphi process with input from multidisciplinary key stakeholders in clinical trials research in the public and private sectors from 21 countries, followed by a consensus meeting. Members of the CONSORT Group were involved during the development process.The paper presents the ACE checklists for AD randomised trial reports and abstracts, as well as an explanation with examples to aid the application of the guideline. The ACE checklist comprises seven new items, nine modified items, six unchanged items for which additional explanatory text clarifies further considerations for ADs, and 20 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text. The ACE abstract checklist has one new item, one modified item, one unchanged item with additional explanatory text for ADs, and 15 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text.The intention is to enhance transparency and improve reporting of AD randomised trials to improve the interpretability of their results and reproducibility of their methods, results and inference. We also hope indirectly to facilitate the much-needed knowledge transfer of innovative trial designs to maximise their potential benefits.

Guérin M, Kennon K, Bilton Lahaut K, Makuka GJ, Ngu R, Obiesie S, Richmond C, Singh-Phulgenda S, Strudwick S, Tyrrell CS, Schwinn A, King D, Newton PN, Price RN, Merson L, Stepniewska K, Guérin PJ. Baseline results of a living systematic review for COVID-19 clinical trial registrations

Background: Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak was first reported in December 2019, many independent trials have been planned that aim to answer similar questions. Tools allowing researchers to review studies already underway can facilitate collaboration, cooperation and harmonisation. The Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) has undertaken a living systematic review (LSR) to provide an open, accessible and frequently updated resource summarising characteristics of COVID-19 study registrations. Methods: Review of all eligible trial records identified by systematic searches as of 3 April 2020 and initial synthesis of clinical study characteristics were conducted. In partnership with Exaptive, an open access, cloud-based knowledge graph has been created using the results.  Results: There were 728 study registrations which met eligibility criteria and were still active. Median (25 th, 75 th percentile) sample size was 130 (60, 400) for all studies and 134 (70, 300) for RCTs. Eight lower middle and low income countries were represented among the planned recruitment sites. Overall 109 pharmacological interventions or advanced therapy medicinal products covering 23 drug categories were studied. Majority (57%, 62/109) of them were planned only in one study arm, either alone or in combination with other interventions. There were 49 distinct combinations studied with 90% (44/49) of them administered in only one or two study arms. The data and interactive platform are available at https://iddo.cognitive.city/. Conclusions:  Baseline review highlighted that the majority of investigations in the first three months of the outbreak were small studies with unique treatment arms, likely to be unpowered to provide solid evidence.  The continued work of this LSR will allow a more dependable overview of interventions tested, predict the likely strength of evidence generated, allow fast and informative filtering of relevant trials for specific user groups and provide the rapid guidance needed by investigators and funders to avoid duplication of efforts.

Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles.

Drugs for filariases are under development and clinical trial simulators could help to inform the design of clinical trials. Here, Walker et al. use an individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model to project trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug, resolving key design choices.

Broadening community engagement in clinical research: Designing and assessing a pilot crowdsourcing project to obtain community feedback on an HIV clinical trial

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Community engagement is widely acknowledged as an important step in clinical trials. One underexplored method for engagement in clinical trials is crowdsourcing. Crowdsourcing involves having community members attempt to solve a problem and then publicly sharing innovative solutions. We designed and conducted a pilot using a crowdsourcing approach to obtain community feedback on an HIV clinical trial, called the Acceptability of Combined Community Engagement Strategies Study. In this work, we describe and assess the Acceptability of Combined Community Engagement Strategies Study's crowdsourcing activities in order to examine the opportunities of crowdsourcing as a clinical trial community engagement strategy.

METHODS

The crowdsourcing engagement activities involved in the Acceptability of Combined Community Engagement Strategies Study were conducted in the context of a phase 1 HIV antibody trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03803605). We designed a series of crowdsourcing activities to collect feedback on three aspects of this clinical trial: the informed consent process, the experience of participating in the trial, and fairness/reciprocity in HIV clinical trials. All crowdsourcing activities were open to members of the general public 18 years of age or older, and participation was solicited from the local community. A group discussion was held with representatives of the clinical trial team to obtain feedback on the utility of crowdsourcing as a community engagement strategy for informing future clinical trials.

RESULTS

Crowdsourcing activities made use of innovative tools and a combination of in-person and online participation opportunities to engage community members in the clinical trial feedback process. Community feedback on informed consent was collected by transforming the clinical trial's informed consent form into a series of interactive video modules, which were screened at an open public discussion. Feedback on the experience of trial participation involved designing three fictional vignettes which were then transformed into animated videos and screened at an open public discussion. Finally, feedback on fairness/reciprocity in HIV clinical trials was collected using a crowdsourcing idea contest with online and in-person submission opportunities. Our public discussion events were attended by 38 participants in total; our idea contest received 43 submissions (27 in-person, 16 online). Facebook and Twitter metrics demonstrated substantial engagement in the project. The clinical team found crowdsourcing primarily useful for enhancing informed consent and trial recruitment.

CONCLUSION

There is sufficient lay community interest in open calls for feedback on the design and conduct of clinical trials, making crowdsourcing both a novel and feasible engagement strategy. Clinical trial researchers are encouraged to consider the opportunities of implementing crowdsourcing to inform trial processes from a community perspective.

Novel trial strategies to enhance the relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, and impact of nephrology research

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions. However, criticisms of traditional designs are that they can be inefficient, inflexible, expensive, and conducted in a manner disconnected from real-life clinical practice. Novel strategies and approaches are being utilized to overcome these limitations, including comprehensive consumer engagement, core outcome sets, novel trial designs, streamlined data collection, cost-effectiveness and return on investment evaluations, knowledge dissemination plans, and impact evaluation. These strategies can be implemented at the design, conduct, implementation, and dissemination stages of the trial process. This review aims to provide an overview of these strategies and approaches to improve the relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, and impact of nephrology research.

Principles of Good Clinical Trial Design

Clinical trials are a fundamental component of medical research and serve as the main route to obtain evidence of the safety and efficacy of treatment before its approval. A trial's ability to provide the intended evidence hinges on appropriate design, background knowledge, trial rationale to sample size, and interim monitoring rules. In this article, we present some general design principles for investigators and their research teams to consider when planning to conduct a trial.

Designing clinical trials for future space missions as a pathway to changing how clinical trials are conducted on Earth

OBJECTIVE

The project aims to build a framework for conducting clinical trials for long-term interplanetary missions to contribute to innovation in clinical trials on Earth, especially around patient involvement and ownership.

METHODS

We conducted two workshops in which participants were immersed in the speculative scenario of an interplanetary mission in which health problems emerged that required medical trials to resolve. The workshops used virtual reality and live simulation to mimic a zero-gravity environment and visual perception shifts and were followed by group discussion.

RESULTS

Some key aspects for the framework that emerged from the workshops included: (a) approaches to be inclusive in the management of the trial, (b) approaches to be inclusive in designing the research project (patient preference trials, n-of-1 trials, designing clinical trials to be part of a future prospective meta-analysis, etc), (c) balancing the research needs and the community needs (eg, allocation of the participants based on both research and community need), (d) ethics and partnerships (ethics and consent issues and how they relate to partnerships and relationships).

CONCLUSION

In identifying some key areas that need to be incorporated in future planning of clinical trials for interplanetary missions, we also identified areas that are relevant to engaging patients in clinical trials on Earth. We will suggest using the same methodology to facilitate more in-depth discussions on specific aspects of clinical trials in aerospace medicine. The methodology can be more widely used in other areas to open new inclusive conversations around innovating research methodology.

A roadmap to advance delirium research: Recommendations from the NIDUS Scientific Think Tank

Delirium is an acute disorder of attention and cognition. It occurs across the life span, yet it is particularly common among older adults, and is closely linked with underlying neurocognitive disorders. Evidence is mounting that intervening on delirium may represent an important opportunity for delaying the onset or progression of dementia. To accelerate the current understanding of delirium, the Network for Investigation of Delirium: Unifying Scientists (NIDUS) held a conference "Advancing Delirium Research: A Scientific Think Tank" in June 2019. This White Paper encompasses the major knowledge and research gaps identified at the conference: advancing delirium definition and measurement, understanding delirium pathophysiology, and prevention and treatment of delirium. A roadmap of research priorities is proposed to advance the field in a systematic, interdisciplinary, and coordinated fashion. A call is made for an international consortium and biobank targeted to delirium, as well as a public health campaign to advance the field.

Precision Dosing Priority Criteria: Drug, Disease, and Patient Population Variables

The administered dose of a drug modulates whether patients will experience optimal effectiveness, toxicity including death, or no effect at all. Dosing is particularly important for diseases and/or drugs where the drug can decrease severe morbidity or prolong life. Likewise, dosing is important where the drug can cause death or severe morbidity. Since we believe there are many examples where more precise dosing could benefit patients, it is worthwhile to consider how to prioritize drug-disease targets. One key consideration is the quality of information available from which more precise dosing recommendations can be constructed. When a new more precise dosing scheme is created and differs significantly from the approved label, it is important to consider the level of proof necessary to either change the label and/or change clinical practice. The cost and effort needed to provide this proof should also be considered in prioritizing drug-disease precision dosing targets. Although precision dosing is being promoted and has great promise, it is underutilized in many drugs and disease states. Therefore, we believe it is important to consider how more precise dosing is going to be delivered to high priority patients in a timely manner. If better dosing schemes do not change clinical practice resulting in better patient outcomes, then what is the use? This review paper discusses variables to consider when prioritizing precision dosing candidates while highlighting key examples of precision dosing that have been successfully used to improve patient care.

Multiple Interventions for Diabetic Foot Ulcer Treatment Trial (MIDFUT): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes affects more than 425 million people worldwide with a lifetime risk of diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) of up to 25%. Management includes wound debridement, wound dressings, offloading, treatment of infection and ischaemia, optimising glycaemic control; use of advanced adjuvant therapies is limited by high cost and lack of robust evidence.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A multicentre, seamless phase II/III, open, parallel group, multi-arm multi-stage randomised controlled trial in patients with a hard-to-heal DFU, with blinded outcome assessment. A maximum of 447 participants will be randomised (245 participants in phase II and 202 participants in phase III). The phase II primary objective will determine the efficacy of treatment strategies including hydrosurgical debridement ± decellularised dermal allograft, or the combination with negative pressure wound therapy, as an adjunct to treatment as usual (TAU), compared with TAU alone, with patients randomised in a 1:1:1:2 allocation. The outcome is achieving at least 50% reduction in index ulcer area at 4 weeks post randomisation.The phase III primary objective will determine whether one treatment strategy, continued from phase II, reduces time to healing of the index ulcer compared with TAU alone, with participants randomised in a 1:1 allocation. Secondary objectives will compare healing status of the index ulcer, infection rate, reulceration, quality of life, cost-effectiveness and incidence of adverse events over 52 weeks post randomisation. Phase II and phase III primary endpoint analysis will be conducted using a mixed-effects logistic regression model and Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively. A within-trial economic evaluation will be undertaken; the primary economic analysis will be a cost-utility analysis presenting ICERs for each treatment strategy in rank order of effectiveness, with effects expressed as quality-adjusted life years.The trial has predefined progression criteria for the selection of one treatment strategy into phase III based on efficacy, safety and costs at 4 weeks.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been granted by the National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee Yorkshire and The Humber - Bradford Leeds Research Ethics Committee; approved 26 April 2017; (REC reference: 17/YH/0055). There is planned publication of a monograph in National Institute for Health Research journals and main trial results and associated papers in high-impact peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN64926597; registered on 6 June 2017.

Precision Medicine and the Institutional Review Board: Ethics and the Genome

Background: Clinical research studies often integrate precision medicine technologies and techniques, offering novel treatment opportunities for patients but also posing significant challenges for regulatory authorities and local institutional review boards (IRBs) as they attempt to protect patient safety and privacy.

Methods: We review the basics of precision medicine and discuss how IRBs are addressing new challenges associated with the era of precision medicine.

Results: Precision medicine trials rely on genomic testing for inclusion criteria and investigational drug therapy choices. The vast amounts of complex information that can be obtained from basic genetic sequencing tests must be stored, analyzed, and interpreted, creating challenges for clinicians, researchers, and regulatory staff who are concerned with complex ethical, security, and legal issues surrounding patients’ personal genetic data in the digital age. All members of the IRB face a rapidly changing environment. The traditional areas of primary concern, such as patient privacy, terminology, and financial benefits, have been joined by issues associated with precision medicine, such as accelerated US Food and Drug Administration drug approval, multiple informed consent form modifications, increasing length and complexity of informed consent forms, and participant genetic privacy. The challenge to the IRB is to remain focused on the prior areas of significance while also adapting the evaluation process to the novel science of precision medicine.

Conclusion: In this era of exponentially increasing big data and easy-to-access genetic sequencing data, IRBs will be tasked with adapting their processes and adjusting to the new technology and its corresponding complexities. Such adaptation has always been required of IRBs, but now it will need to occur rapidly as technology and data analysis capabilities accelerate.

How can health economics be used in the design and analysis of adaptive clinical trials? A qualitative analysis

INTRODUCTION

Adaptive designs offer a flexible approach, allowing changes to a trial based on examinations of the data as it progresses. Adaptive clinical trials are becoming a popular choice, as the prudent use of finite research budgets and accurate decision-making are priorities for healthcare providers around the world. The methods of health economics, which aim to maximise the health gained for money spent, could be incorporated into the design and analysis of adaptive clinical trials to make them more efficient. We aimed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders in health technology assessments to inform recommendations for the use of health economics in adaptive clinical trials.

METHODS

A qualitative study explored the attitudes of key stakeholders-including researchers, decision-makers and members of the public-towards the use of health economics in the design and analysis of adaptive clinical trials. Data were collected using interviews and focus groups (29 participants). A framework analysis was used to identify themes in the transcripts.

RESULTS

It was considered that answering the clinical research question should be the priority in a clinical trial, notwithstanding the importance of cost-effectiveness for decision-making. Concerns raised by participants included handling the volatile nature of cost data at interim analyses; implementing this approach in global trials; resourcing adaptive trials which are designed and adapted based on health economic outcomes; and training stakeholders in these methods so that they can be implemented and appropriately interpreted.

CONCLUSION

The use of health economics in the design and analysis of adaptive clinical trials has the potential to increase the efficiency of health technology assessments worldwide. Recommendations are made concerning the development of methods allowing the use of health economics in adaptive clinical trials, and suggestions are given to facilitate their implementation in practice.

Adaptive seamless clinical trials using early outcomes for treatment or subgroup selection: Methods, simulation model and their implementation in R

Adaptive seamless designs combine confirmatory testing, a domain of phase III trials, with features such as treatment or subgroup selection, typically associated with phase II trials. They promise to increase the efficiency of development programmes of new drugs, for example, in terms of sample size and/or development time. It is well acknowledged that adaptive designs are more involved from a logistical perspective and require more upfront planning, often in the form of extensive simulation studies, than conventional approaches. Here, we present a framework for adaptive treatment and subgroup selection using the same notation, which links the somewhat disparate literature on treatment selection on one side and on subgroup selection on the other. Furthermore, we introduce a flexible and efficient simulation model that serves both designs. As primary endpoints often take a long time to observe, interim analyses are frequently informed by early outcomes. Therefore, all methods presented accommodate interim analyses informed by either the primary outcome or an early outcome. The R package asd, previously developed to simulate designs with treatment selection, was extended to include subgroup selection (so‐called adaptive enrichment designs). Here, we describe the functionality of the R package asd and use it to present some worked‐up examples motivated by clinical trials in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and oncology. The examples both illustrate various features of the R package and provide insights into the operating characteristics of adaptive seamless studies.

Guidance for design and endpoints of clinical trials in chronic hepatitis B - Report from the 2019 EASL-AASLD HBV Treatment Endpoints Conference‡

Representatives from academia, industry, regulatory agencies, and patient groups convened in March 2019 with the primary goal of developing agreement on chronic HBV treatment endpoints to guide clinical trials aiming to 'cure' HBV. Agreement among the conference participants was reached on some key points. 'Functional' but not sterilising cure is achievable and should be defined as sustained HBsAg loss in addition to undetectable HBV DNA 6 months post-treatment. The primary endpoint of phase III trials should be functional cure; HBsAg loss in ≥30% of patients was suggested as an acceptable rate of response in these trials. Sustained virologic suppression (undetectable serum HBV DNA) without HBsAg loss 6 months after discontinuation of treatment would be an intermediate goal. Demonstrated validity for the prediction of sustained HBsAg loss was considered the most appropriate criterion for the approval of new HBV assays to determine efficacy endpoints. Clinical trials aimed at HBV functional cure should initially focus on patients with HBeAg-positive or negative chronic hepatitis, who are treatment-naïve or virally suppressed on nucleos(t)ide analogues. A hepatitis flare associated with an increase in bilirubin or international normalised ratio should prompt temporary or permanent cessation of an investigational treatment. New treatments must be as safe as existing nucleos(t)ide analogues. The primary endpoint for phase III trials for HDV coinfection should be undetectable serum HDV RNA 6 months after stopping treatment. On treatment HDV RNA suppression associated with normalisation of alanine aminotransferase is considered an intermediate goal. In conclusion, regarding HBV 'functional cure', the primary goal is sustained HBsAg loss with undetectable HBV DNA after completion of treatment and the intermediate goal is sustained undetectable HBV DNA without HBsAg loss after stopping treatment.

Analysis of Control Arm Quality in Randomized Clinical Trials Leading to Anticancer Drug Approval by the US Food and Drug Administration

Importance

To date, an empirical evaluation of the quality of control arms in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) leading to anticancer drug approvals by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not been undertaken.

Objective

We sought to estimate the percentage of RCTs that used a control arm deemed suboptimal and led to FDA approval of anticancer drugs from January 1, 2013, to July 31, 2018.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This quality improvement study included 143 anticancer drug approvals granted by the FDA from January 1, 2013, to July 31, 2018. All approvals based on single-arm studies (48 approvals) were excluded. Approvals based on RCTs were further investigated and each trial was analyzed for design, time of patient accrual, control arm, and primary end point. Standard-of-care therapy was determined by evaluating the literature and published guidelines 1 year prior to the start of trial enrollment. The percentage of approvals based on RCTs that used suboptimal control arms was then calculated. The quality of the control arm was deemed suboptimal if the choice of control agent was restricted to exclude a recommended agent, the control arm was specified but the recommended agent was unspecified, and if prior RCT data had demonstrated that the control agent was inferior to an available alternative.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Estimated percentage of RCTs that used suboptimal control arms that led to FDA approval of anticancer agents between January 1, 2013, to July 31, 2018.

Results

A total of 145 studies that led to 143 drug approvals between January 1, 2013, and July 31, 2018, were included. Of these studies, 48 single-arm studies were excluded. The remaining 97 studies led to 95 drug approvals. Of these 95 approvals, 16 (17%) were based on RCTs with suboptimal control arms; 15 were international trials, and 1 was conducted in the United States. The type of approval was regular in 15 trials and accelerated in 1 trial. When categorized by the nature of suboptimal control, 4 (25%) trials omitted active treatment in control arm by limiting investigator's choice, 11 (63%) trials omitted active treatment in the control arm by using a control agent known to be inferior to other available agents or not allowing combinations, and 1 (13%) trial used a previously used treatment in the control arm with a known lack of benefit associated with reexposure.

Conclusions and Relevance

Although anticancer drug approvals are increasing, a proportion of these drugs are reaching the market without proven superiority to what is considered the standard of care at the time of patient enrollment in pivotal trials. The choice of control arm should be optimized to ensure that new anticancer agents being marketed are truly superior to what most clinicians would prescribe outside a clinical trial setting.

A review of available software for adaptive clinical trial design

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The increasing cost of the drug development process has seen interest in the use of adaptive trial designs grow substantially. Accordingly, much research has been conducted to identify barriers to increasing the use of adaptive designs in practice. Several articles have argued that the availability of user-friendly software will be an important step in making adaptive designs easier to implement. Therefore, we present a review of the current state of software availability for adaptive trial design.

METHODS

We review articles from 31 journals published in 2013-2017 that relate to methodology for adaptive trials to assess how often code and software for implementing novel adaptive designs is made available at the time of publication. We contrast our findings against these journals' policies on code distribution. We also search popular code repositories, such as Comprehensive R Archive Network and GitHub, to identify further existing user-contributed software for adaptive designs. From this, we are able to direct interested parties toward solutions for their problem of interest.

RESULTS

Only 30% of included articles made their code available in some form. In many instances, articles published in journals that had mandatory requirements on code provision still did not make code available. There are several areas in which available software is currently limited or saturated. In particular, many packages are available to address group sequential design, but comparatively little code is present in the public domain to determine biomarker-guided adaptive designs.

CONCLUSIONS

There is much room for improvement in the provision of software alongside adaptive design publications. In addition, while progress has been made, well-established software for various types of trial adaptation remains sparsely available.

Experimental and quasi-experimental designs in implementation research

Implementation science is focused on maximizing the adoption, appropriate use, and sustainability of effective clinical practices in real world clinical settings. Many implementation science questions can be feasibly answered by fully experimental designs, typically in the form of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Implementation-focused RCTs, however, usually differ from traditional efficacy- or effectiveness-oriented RCTs on key parameters. Other implementation science questions are more suited to quasi-experimental designs, which are intended to estimate the effect of an intervention in the absence of randomization. These designs include pre-post designs with a non-equivalent control group, interrupted time series (ITS), and stepped wedges, the last of which require all participants to receive the intervention, but in a staggered fashion. In this article we review the use of experimental designs in implementation science, including recent methodological advances for implementation studies. We also review the use of quasi-experimental designs in implementation science, and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches. This article is therefore meant to be a practical guide for researchers who are interested in selecting the most appropriate study design to answer relevant implementation science questions, and thereby increase the rate at which effective clinical practices are adopted, spread, and sustained.

Machine learning applications in drug development

Due to the huge amount of biological and medical data available today, along with well-established machine learning algorithms, the design of largely automated drug development pipelines can now be envisioned. These pipelines may guide, or speed up, drug discovery; provide a better understanding of diseases and associated biological phenomena; help planning preclinical wet-lab experiments, and even future clinical trials. This automation of the drug development process might be key to the current issue of low productivity rate that pharmaceutical companies currently face. In this survey, we will particularly focus on two classes of methods: sequential learning and recommender systems, which are active biomedical fields of research.

An adaptive two-arm clinical trial using early endpoints to inform decision making: design for a study of sub-acromial spacers for repair of rotator cuff tendon tears

Background

There is widespread concern across the clinical and research communities that clinical trials, powered for patient-reported outcomes, testing new surgical procedures are often expensive and time-consuming, particularly when the new intervention is shown to be no better than the standard. Conventional (non-adaptive) randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are perceived as being particularly inefficient in this setting. Therefore, we have developed an adaptive group sequential design that allows early endpoints to inform decision making and show, through simulations and a worked example, that these designs are feasible and often preferable to conventional non-adaptive designs. The methodology is motivated by an ongoing clinical trial investigating a saline-filled balloon, inserted above the main joint of the shoulder at the end of arthroscopic debridement, for treatment of tears of rotor cuff tendons. This research question and setting is typical of many studies undertaken to assess new surgical procedures.

Methods

Test statistics are presented based on the setting of two early outcomes, and methods for estimation of sequential stopping boundaries are described. A framework for the implementation of simulations to evaluate design characteristics is also described.

Results

Simulations show that designs with one, two and three early looks are feasible and, with appropriately chosen futility stopping boundaries, have appealing design characteristics. A number of possible design options are described that have good power and a high probability of stopping for futility if there is no evidence of a treatment effect at early looks. A worked example, with code in R, provides a practical demonstration of how the design might work in a real study.

Conclusions

In summary, we show that adaptive designs are feasible and could work in practice. We describe the operating characteristics of the designs and provide guidelines for appropriate values for the stopping boundaries for the START:REACTS (Sub-acromial spacer for Tears Affecting Rotator cuff Tendons: a Randomised, Efficient, Adaptive Clinical Trial in Surgery) study.

Trial registration

ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN17825590. Registered on 5 March 2018.

Guidance for design and endpoints of clinical trials in chronic hepatitis B - Report from the 2019 EASL-AASLD HBV Treatment Endpoints Conference

Representatives from academia, industry, regulatory agencies, and patient groups convened in March 2019 with the primary goal of developing agreement on chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) treatment endpoints to guide clinical trials aiming to 'cure' HBV. Agreement among the conference participants was reached on some key points. 'Functional' but not sterilizing cure is achievable and should be defined as sustained HBsAg loss in addition to undetectable HBV DNA 6 months post-treatment. The primary endpoint of phase 3 trials should be functional cure; HBsAg loss in ≥30% of patients was suggested as an acceptable rate of response in these trials. Sustained virologic suppression (undetectable serum HBV DNA) without HBsAg loss, 6 months after discontinuation of treatment would be an intermediate goal. Demonstrated validity in predicting sustained HBsAg loss was considered the most appropriate criterion for the approval of new HBV assays to determine efficacy endpoints. Clinical trials aimed at HBV functional cure should initially focus on patients with HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis, treatment-naïve or virally suppressed on nucleos(t)ide analogues. A hepatitis flare associated with increase in bilirubin or INR should prompt temporary or permanent cessation of investigational treatment. New treatments must be as safe as existing nucleos(t)ide analogues. The primary endpoint for phase 3 trials for hepatitis D virus (HDV) co-infection should be undetectable serum HDV RNA 6 months after stopping treatment. On treatment HDV RNA suppression associated with normalization of ALT is considered an intermediate goal. CONCLUSION: For HBV 'functional cure', sustained HBsAg loss with undetectable HBV DNA after completion of treatment is the primary goal and sustained undetectable HBV DNA without HBsAg loss after stopping treatment an intermediate goal.

A Stroke Recovery Trial Development Framework: Consensus-Based Core Recommendations from the Second Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable

A major goal of the Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable (SRRR) is to accelerate development of effective treatments to enhance stroke recovery beyond that expected to occur spontaneously or with current approaches. In this paper, we describe key issues for the next generation of stroke recovery treatment trials and present the Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable Trials Development Framework (SRRR-TDF). An exemplar (an upper limb recovery trial) is presented to demonstrate the utility of this framework to guide the GO, NO-GO decision-making process in trial development.