A total-evidence approach to dating with fossils, applied to the early radiation of the hymenoptera

Effects of missing data on topological inference using a Total Evidence approach

To fully understand macroevolutionary patterns and processes, we need to include both extant and extinct species in our models. This requires phylogenetic trees with both living and fossil taxa at the tips. One way to infer such phylogenies is the Total Evidence approach which uses molecular data from living taxa and morphological data from living and fossil taxa. Although the Total Evidence approach is very promising, it requires a great deal of data that can be hard to collect. Therefore this method is likely to suffer from missing data issues that may affect its ability to infer correct phylogenies. Here we use simulations to assess the effects of missing data on tree topologies inferred from Total Evidence matrices. We investigate three major factors that directly affect the completeness and the size of the morphological part of the matrix: the proportion of living taxa with no morphological data, the amount of missing data in the fossil record, and the overall number of morphological characters in the matrix. We infer phylogenies from complete matrices and from matrices with various amounts of missing data, and then compare missing data topologies to the "best" tree topology inferred using the complete matrix. We find that the number of living taxa with morphological characters and the overall number of morphological characters in the matrix, are more important than the amount of missing data in the fossil record for recovering the "best" tree topology. Therefore, we suggest that sampling effort should be focused on morphological data collection for living species to increase the accuracy of topological inference in a Total Evidence framework. Additionally, we find that Bayesian methods consistently outperform other tree inference methods. We therefore recommend using Bayesian consensus trees to fix the tree topology prior to further analyses.

Phylogeny, species delimitation and convergence in the South American bothriurid scorpion genus Brachistosternus Pocock 1893: Integrating morphology, nuclear and mitochondrial DNA

A phylogenetic analysis of the scorpion genus Brachistosternus Pocock, 1893 (Bothriuridae Simon, 1880) is presented, based on a dataset including 41 of the 43 described species and five outgroups, 116 morphological characters and more than 4150 base-pairs of DNA sequence from the nuclear 18S rDNA and 28S rDNA gene loci, and the mitochondrial 12S rDNA, 16S rDNA, and Cytochrome c Oxidase Subunit I gene loci. Analyses conducted using parsimony, Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference were largely congruent with high support for most clades. The results confirmed the monophyly of Brachistosternus, the nominal subgenus, and subgenus Ministernus Francke, 1985, as in previous analyses based only on morphology, but differed in several other respects. Species from the plains of the Atacama Desert diverged basally whereas the high altitude Andean species radiated from a more derived ancestor, presumably as a consequence of Andean uplift and associated changes in climate. Species limits were assessed among species that contain intraspecific variation (e.g., different morphs), are difficult to separate morphologically, and/or exhibit widespread or disjunct distributions. The extent of convergence in morphological adaptation to life on sandy substrata (psammophily) and the complexity of the male genitalia, or hemispermatophores, was investigated. Psammophily evolved on at least four independent occasions. The lobe regions of the hemispermatophore increased in complexity on three independent occasions, and decreased in complexity on another three independent occasions.

Xenopus in Space and Time: Fossils, Node Calibrations, Tip-Dating, and Paleobiogeography

Published data from DNA sequences, morphology of 11 extant and 15 extinct frog taxa, and stratigraphic ranges of fossils were integrated to open a window into the deep-time evolution of Xenopus. The ages and morphological characters of fossils were used as independent datasets to calibrate a chronogram. We found that DNA sequences, either alone or in combination with morphological data and fossils, tended to support a close relationship between Xenopus and Hymenochirus, although in some analyses this topology was not significantly better than the Pipa + Hymenochirus topology. Analyses that excluded DNA data found strong support for the Pipa + Hymenochirus tree. The criterion for selecting the maximum age of the calibration prior influenced the age estimates, and our age estimates of early divergences in the tree of frogs are substantially younger than those of published studies. Node-dating and tip-dating calibrations, either alone or in combination, yielded older dates for nodes than did a root calibration alone. Our estimates of divergence times indicate that overwater dispersal, rather than vicariance due to the splitting of Africa and South America, may explain the presence of Xenopus in Africa and its closest fossil relatives in South America.

Caste-biases in gene expression are specific to developmental stage in the ant Formica exsecta

Understanding how a single genome creates and maintains distinct phenotypes is a central goal in evolutionary biology. Social insects are a striking example of co-opted genetic backgrounds giving rise to dramatically different phenotypes, such as queen and worker castes. A conserved set of molecular pathways, previously envisioned as a set of 'toolkit' genes, has been hypothesized to underlie queen and worker phenotypes in independently evolved social insect lineages. Here, we investigated the toolkit from a developmental point of view, using RNA-Seq to compare caste-biased gene expression patterns across three life stages (pupae, emerging adult and old adult) and two female castes (queens and workers) in the ant Formica exsecta. We found that the number of genes with caste-biased expression increases dramatically from pupal to old adult stages. This result suggests that phenotypic differences between queens and workers at the pupal stage may derive from a relatively low number of caste-biased genes, compared to higher number of genes required to maintain caste differences at the adult stage. Gene expression patterns were more similar among castes within developmental stages than within castes despite the extensive phenotypic differences between queens and workers. Caste-biased expression was highly variable among life stages at the level of single genes, but more consistent when gene functions (gene ontology terms) were investigated. Finally, we found that a large part of putative toolkit genes were caste-biased at least in some life stages in F. exsecta, and the caste-biases, but not their direction, were more often shared between F. exsecta and other ant species than between F. exsecta and bees. Our results indicate that gene expression should be examined across several developmental stages to fully reveal the genetic basis of polyphenisms.

Calibration uncertainty in molecular dating analyses: there is no substitute for the prior evaluation of time priors

Calibration is the rate-determining step in every molecular clock analysis and, hence, considerable effort has been expended in the development of approaches to distinguish good from bad calibrations. These can be categorized into a priori evaluation of the intrinsic fossil evidence, and a posteriori evaluation of congruence through cross-validation. We contrasted these competing approaches and explored the impact of different interpretations of the fossil evidence upon Bayesian divergence time estimation. The results demonstrate that a posteriori approaches can lead to the selection of erroneous calibrations. Bayesian posterior estimates are also shown to be extremely sensitive to the probabilistic interpretation of temporal constraints. Furthermore, the effective time priors implemented within an analysis differ for individual calibrations when employed alone and in differing combination with others. This compromises the implicit assumption of all calibration consistency methods, that the impact of an individual calibration is the same when used alone or in unison with others. Thus, the most effective means of establishing the quality of fossil-based calibrations is through a priori evaluation of the intrinsic palaeontological, stratigraphic, geochronological and phylogenetic data. However, effort expended in establishing calibrations will not be rewarded unless they are implemented faithfully in divergence time analyses.

Revisiting the origin and diversification of vascular plants through a comprehensive Bayesian analysis of the fossil record

Plants have a long evolutionary history, during which mass extinction events dramatically affected Earth's ecosystems and its biodiversity. The fossil record can shed light on the diversification dynamics of plant life and reveal how changes in the origination-extinction balance have contributed to shaping the current flora. We use a novel Bayesian approach to estimate origination and extinction rates in plants throughout their history. We focus on the effect of the 'Big Five' mass extinctions and on estimating the timing of origin of vascular plants, seed plants and angiosperms. Our analyses show that plant diversification is characterized by several shifts in origination and extinction rates, often matching the most important geological boundaries. The estimated origin of major plant clades predates the oldest macrofossils when considering the uncertainties associated with the fossil record and the preservation process. Our findings show that the commonly recognized mass extinctions have affected each plant group differently and that phases of high extinction often coincided with major floral turnovers. For instance, after the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary we infer negligible shifts in diversification of nonflowering seed plants, but find significantly decreased extinction in spore-bearing plants and increased origination rates in angiosperms, contributing to their current ecological and evolutionary dominance.

Confluence, synnovation, and depauperons in plant diversification

We review the empirical phylogenetic literature on plant diversification, highlighting challenges in separating the effects of speciation and extinction, in specifying diversification mechanisms, and in making convincing arguments. In recent discussions of context dependence, key opportunities and landscapes, and indirect effects and lag times, we see a distinct shift away from single-point/single-cause 'key innovation' hypotheses toward more nuanced explanations involving multiple interacting causal agents assembled step-wise through a tree. To help crystalize this emerging perspective we introduce the term 'synnovation' (a hybrid of 'synergy' and 'innovation') for an interacting combination of traits with a particular consequence ('key synnovation' in the case of increased diversification rate), and the term 'confluence' for the sequential coming together of a set of traits (innovations and synnovations), environmental changes, and geographic movements along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. We illustrate these concepts using the radiation of Bromeliaceae. We also highlight the generality of these ideas by considering how rate heterogeneity associated with a confluence relates to the existence of particularly species-poor lineages, or 'depauperons.' Many challenges are posed by this re-purposed research framework, including difficulties associated with partial taxon sampling, uncertainty in divergence time estimation, and extinction.

A metacalibrated time-tree documents the early rise of flowering plant phylogenetic diversity

The establishment of modern terrestrial life is indissociable from angiosperm evolution. While available molecular clock estimates of angiosperm age range from the Paleozoic to the Late Cretaceous, the fossil record is consistent with angiosperm diversification in the Early Cretaceous. The time-frame of angiosperm evolution is here estimated using a sample representing 87% of families and sequences of five plastid and nuclear markers, implementing penalized likelihood and Bayesian relaxed clocks. A literature-based review of the palaeontological record yielded calibrations for 137 phylogenetic nodes. The angiosperm crown age was bound within a confidence interval calculated with a method that considers the fossil record of the group. An Early Cretaceous crown angiosperm age was estimated with high confidence. Magnoliidae, Monocotyledoneae and Eudicotyledoneae diversified synchronously 135-130 million yr ago (Ma); Pentapetalae is 126-121 Ma; and Rosidae (123-115 Ma) preceded Asteridae (119-110 Ma). Family stem ages are continuously distributed between c. 140 and 20 Ma. This time-frame documents an early phylogenetic proliferation that led to the establishment of major angiosperm lineages, and the origin of over half of extant families, in the Cretaceous. While substantial amounts of angiosperm morphological and functional diversity have deep evolutionary roots, extant species richness was probably acquired later.

Fossils, phylogenies, and the challenge of preserving evolutionary history in the face of anthropogenic extinctions

Anthropogenic impacts are endangering many long-lived species and lineages, possibly leading to a disproportionate loss of existing evolutionary history (EH) in the future. However, surprisingly little is known about the loss of EH during major extinctions in the geological past, and thus we do not know whether human impacts are pruning the tree of life in a manner that is unique in the history of life. A major impediment to comparing the loss of EH during past and current extinctions is the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from paleontological data versus molecular phylogenies. In the former case the age of a taxon is its entire stratigraphic range, regardless of how many daughter taxa it may have produced; for the latter it is the time to the most recent common ancestor shared with another extant taxon. To explore this issue, we use simulations to understand how the loss of EH is manifested in the two data types. We also present empirical analyses of the marine bivalve clade Pectinidae (scallops) during a major Plio-Pleistocene extinction in California that involved a preferential loss of younger species. Overall, our results show that the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from the stratigraphic record versus molecular phylogenies does not preclude comparisons of age selectivities of past and present extinctions. Such comparisons not only provide fundamental insights into the nature of the extinction process but should also help improve evolutionarily informed models of conservation prioritization.

Iterative adaptive radiations of fossil canids show no evidence for diversity-dependent trait evolution

A long-standing hypothesis in adaptive radiation theory is that ecological opportunity constrains rates of phenotypic evolution, generating a burst of morphological disparity early in clade history. Empirical support for the early burst model is rare in comparative data, however. One possible reason for this lack of support is that most phylogenetic tests have focused on extant clades, neglecting information from fossil taxa. Here, I test for the expected signature of adaptive radiation using the outstanding 40-My fossil record of North American canids. Models implying time- and diversity-dependent rates of morphological evolution are strongly rejected for two ecologically important traits, body size and grinding area of the molar teeth. Instead, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes implying repeated, and sometimes rapid, attraction to distinct dietary adaptive peaks receive substantial support. Diversity-dependent rates of morphological evolution seem uncommon in clades, such as canids, that exhibit a pattern of replicated adaptive radiation. Instead, these clades might best be thought of as deterministic radiations in constrained Simpsonian subzones of a major adaptive zone. Support for adaptive peak models may be diagnostic of subzonal radiations. It remains to be seen whether early burst or ecological opportunity models can explain broader adaptive radiations, such as the evolution of higher taxa.

Potential for bias and low precision in molecular divergence time estimation of the Canopy of Life: an example from aquatic bird families

Uncertainty in divergence time estimation is frequently studied from many angles but rarely from the perspective of phylogenetic node age. If appropriate molecular models and fossil priors are used, a multi-locus, partitioned analysis is expected to equally minimize error in accuracy and precision across all nodes of a given phylogeny. In contrast, if available models fail to completely account for rate heterogeneity, substitution saturation and incompleteness of the fossil record, uncertainty in divergence time estimation may increase with node age. While many studies have stressed this concern with regard to deep nodes in the Tree of Life, the inference that molecular divergence time estimation of shallow nodes is less sensitive to erroneous model choice has not been tested explicitly in a Bayesian framework. Because of available divergence time estimation methods that permit fossil priors across any phylogenetic node and the present increase in efficient, cheap collection of species-level genomic data, insight is needed into the performance of divergence time estimation of shallow (<10 MY) nodes. Here, we performed multiple sensitivity analyses in a multi-locus data set of aquatic birds with six fossil constraints. Comparison across divergence time analyses that varied taxon and locus sampling, number and position of fossil constraint and shape of prior distribution showed various insights. Deviation from node ages obtained from a reference analysis was generally highest for the shallowest nodes but determined more by temporal placement than number of fossil constraints. Calibration with only the shallowest nodes significantly underestimated the aquatic bird fossil record, indicating the presence of saturation. Although joint calibration with all six priors yielded ages most consistent with the fossil record, ages of shallow nodes were overestimated. This bias was found in both mtDNA and nDNA regions. Thus, divergence time estimation of shallow nodes may suffer from bias and low precision, even when appropriate fossil priors and best available substitution models are chosen. Much care must be taken to address the possible ramifications of substitution saturation across the entire Tree of Life.

Phylogenetic analysis of the complete mitochondrial genome of the Korean field mouse Apodemus peninsulae (Rodentia, Murinae) from China

We sequenced and characterized a complete mitogenome (KP671850) of the Chinese Apodemus peninsulae and compared it with a previously published mitogenome of the Korean A. peninsulae (NC016060). The total length of the Chinese A. peninsulae mitogenome is 16,457 bp. The mitogenome consists of 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), two rRNA (12S rRNA and 16S rRNA) genes, 22 tRNA genes, and one D-loop region. The most common start codon was ATG, used in the nine PCGs for initiation. The mitogenomes of Chinese and Korean A. peninsulae showed 98.9% sequence similarity. The intra-/interspecific phylogeny of the Chinese A. peninsulae revealed that the Chinese A. peninsulae was well grouped with the Korean A. peninsulae. The clade of A. peninsulae was sister to that of Apodemus agrarius, Apodemus chejuensis, and Apodemus chevrieri.

A revised time tree of the asterids: establishing a temporal framework for evolutionary studies of the coffee family (rubiaceae)

Divergence time analyses in the coffee family (Rubiaceae) have all relied on the same Gentianales crown group age estimate, reported by an earlier analysis of the asterids, for defining the upper age bound of the root node in their analyses. However, not only did the asterid analysis suffer from several analytical shortcomings, but the estimate itself has been used in highly inconsistent ways in these Rubiaceae analyses. Based on the original data, we here reanalyze the divergence times of the asterids using relaxed-clock models and 14 fossil-based minimum age constraints. We also expand the data set to include an additional 67 taxa from Rubiaceae sampled across all three subfamilies recognized in the family. Three analyses are conducted: a separate analysis of the asterids, which completely mirrors the original asterid analysis in terms of taxon sample and data; a separate analysis of the Gentianales, where the result from the first analysis is used for defining a secondary root calibration point; and a combined analysis where all taxa are analyzed simultaneously. Results are presented in the form of a time-calibrated phylogeny, and age estimates for asterid groups, Gentianales, and major groups of Rubiaceae are compared and discussed in relation to previously published estimates. Our updated age estimates for major groups of Rubiaceae provide a significant step forward towards the long term goal of establishing a robust temporal framework for the divergence of this biologically diverse and fascinating group of plants.

Phylogeny, evolution and classification of gall wasps: the plot thickens

Gall wasps (Cynipidae) represent the most spectacular radiation of gall-inducing insects. In addition to true gall formers, gall wasps also include phytophagous inquilines, which live inside the galls induced by gall wasps or other insects. Here we present the first comprehensive molecular and total-evidence analyses of higher-level gall wasp relationships. We studied more than 100 taxa representing a rich selection of outgroups and the majority of described cynipid genera outside the diverse oak gall wasps (Cynipini), which were more sparsely sampled. About 5 kb of nucleotide data from one mitochondrial (COI) and four nuclear (28S, LWRh, EF1alpha F1, and EF1alpha F2) markers were analyzed separately and in combination with morphological and life-history data. According to previous morphology-based studies, gall wasps evolved in the Northern Hemisphere and were initially herb gallers. Inquilines originated once from gall inducers that lost the ability to initiate galls. Our results, albeit not conclusive, suggest a different scenario. The first gall wasps were more likely associated with woody host plants, and there must have been multiple origins of gall inducers, inquilines or both. One possibility is that gall inducers arose independently from inquilines in several lineages. Except for these surprising results, our analyses are largely consistent with previous studies. They confirm that gall wasps are conservative in their host-plant preferences, and that herb-galling lineages have radiated repeatedly onto the same set of unrelated host plants. We propose a revised classification of the family into twelve tribes, which are strongly supported as monophyletic across independent datasets. Four are new: Aulacideini, Phanacidini, Diastrophini and Ceroptresini. We present a key to the tribes and discuss their morphological and biological diversity. Until the relationships among the tribes are resolved, the origin and early evolution of gall wasps will remain elusive.

The origin of snakes: revealing the ecology, behavior, and evolutionary history of early snakes using genomics, phenomics, and the fossil record

Background

The highly derived morphology and astounding diversity of snakes has long inspired debate regarding the ecological and evolutionary origin of both the snake total-group (Pan-Serpentes) and crown snakes (Serpentes). Although speculation abounds on the ecology, behavior, and provenance of the earliest snakes, a rigorous, clade-wide analysis of snake origins has yet to be attempted, in part due to a dearth of adequate paleontological data on early stem snakes. Here, we present the first comprehensive analytical reconstruction of the ancestor of crown snakes and the ancestor of the snake total-group, as inferred using multiple methods of ancestral state reconstruction. We use a combined-data approach that includes new information from the fossil record on extinct crown snakes, new data on the anatomy of the stem snakes Najash rionegrina, Dinilysia patagonica, and Coniophis precedens, and a deeper understanding of the distribution of phenotypic apomorphies among the major clades of fossil and Recent snakes. Additionally, we infer time-calibrated phylogenies using both new ‘tip-dating’ and traditional node-based approaches, providing new insights on temporal patterns in the early evolutionary history of snakes.

Results

Comprehensive ancestral state reconstructions reveal that both the ancestor of crown snakes and the ancestor of total-group snakes were nocturnal, widely foraging, non-constricting stealth hunters. They likely consumed soft-bodied vertebrate and invertebrate prey that was subequal to head size, and occupied terrestrial settings in warm, well-watered, and well-vegetated environments. The snake total-group – approximated by the Coniophis node – is inferred to have originated on land during the middle Early Cretaceous (~128.5 Ma), with the crown-group following about 20 million years later, during the Albian stage. Our inferred divergence dates provide strong evidence for a major radiation of henophidian snake diversity in the wake of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction, clarifying the pattern and timing of the extant snake radiation. Although the snake crown-group most likely arose on the supercontinent of Gondwana, our results suggest the possibility that the snake total-group originated on Laurasia.

Conclusions

Our study provides new insights into when, where, and how snakes originated, and presents the most complete picture of the early evolution of snakes to date. More broadly, we demonstrate the striking influence of including fossils and phenotypic data in combined analyses aimed at both phylogenetic topology inference and ancestral state reconstruction.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0358-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Circumstances in which parsimony but not compatibility will be provably misleading

Phylogenetic methods typically rely on an appropriate model of how data evolved in order to infer an accurate phylogenetic tree. For molecular data, standard statistical methods have provided an effective strategy for extracting phylogenetic information from aligned sequence data when each site (character) is subject to a common process. However, for other types of data (e.g., morphological data), characters can be too ambiguous, homoplastic, or saturated to develop models that are effective at capturing the underlying process of change. To address this, we examine the properties of a classic but neglected method for inferring splits in an underlying tree, namely, maximum compatibility. By adopting a simple and extreme model in which each character either fits perfectly on some tree, or is entirely random (but it is not known which class any character belongs to) we are able to derive exact and explicit formulae regarding the performance of maximum compatibility. We show that this method is able to identify a set of non-trivial homoplasy-free characters, when the number [Formula: see text] of taxa is large, even when the number of random characters is large. In contrast, we show that a method that makes more uniform use of all the data-maximum parsimony-can provably estimate trees in which none of the original homoplasy-free characters support splits.

Target enrichment of ultraconserved elements from arthropods provides a genomic perspective on relationships among Hymenoptera

Gaining a genomic perspective on phylogeny requires the collection of data from many putatively independent loci across the genome. Among insects, an increasingly common approach to collecting this class of data involves transcriptome sequencing, because few insects have high-quality genome sequences available; assembling new genomes remains a limiting factor; the transcribed portion of the genome is a reasonable, reduced subset of the genome to target; and the data collected from transcribed portions of the genome are similar in composition to the types of data with which biologists have traditionally worked (e.g. exons). However, molecular techniques requiring RNA as a template, including transcriptome sequencing, are limited to using very high-quality source materials, which are often unavailable from a large proportion of biologically important insect samples. Recent research suggests that DNA-based target enrichment of conserved genomic elements offers another path to collecting phylogenomic data across insect taxa, provided that conserved elements are present in and can be collected from insect genomes. Here, we identify a large set (n = 1510) of ultraconserved elements (UCEs) shared among the insect order Hymenoptera. We used in silico analyses to show that these loci accurately reconstruct relationships among genome-enabled hymenoptera, and we designed a set of RNA baits (n = 2749) for enriching these loci that researchers can use with DNA templates extracted from a variety of sources. We used our UCE bait set to enrich an average of 721 UCE loci from 30 hymenopteran taxa, and we used these UCE loci to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships spanning very old (≥220 Ma) to very young (≤1 Ma) divergences among hymenopteran lineages. In contrast to a recent study addressing hymenopteran phylogeny using transcriptome data, we found ants to be sister to all remaining aculeate lineages with complete support, although this result could be explained by factors such as taxon sampling. We discuss this approach and our results in the context of elucidating the evolutionary history of one of the most diverse and speciose animal orders.

Continuously growing rodent molars result from a predictable quantitative evolutionary change over 50 million years

The fossil record is widely informative about evolution, but fossils are not systematically used to study the evolution of stem-cell-driven renewal. Here, we examined evolution of the continuous growth (hypselodonty) of rodent molar teeth, which is fuelled by the presence of dental stem cells. We studied occurrences of 3,500 North American rodent fossils, ranging from 50 million years ago (mya) to 2 mya. We examined changes in molar height to determine whether evolution of hypselodonty shows distinct patterns in the fossil record, and we found that hypselodont taxa emerged through intermediate forms of increasing crown height. Next, we designed a Markov simulation model, which replicated molar height increases throughout the Cenozoic and, moreover, evolution of hypselodonty. Thus, by extension, the retention of the adult stem cell niche appears to be a predictable quantitative rather than a stochastic qualitative process. Our analyses predict that hypselodonty will eventually become the dominant phenotype.

Phylogenetic analysis of molecular and morphological data highlights uncertainty in the relationships of fossil and living species of Elopomorpha (Actinopterygii: Teleostei)

Elopomorpha is one of the three main clades of living teleost fishes and includes a range of disparate lineages including eels, tarpons, bonefishes, and halosaurs. Elopomorphs were among the first groups of fishes investigated using Hennigian phylogenetic methods and continue to be the object of intense phylogenetic scrutiny due to their economic significance, diversity, and crucial evolutionary status as the sister group of all other teleosts. While portions of the phylogenetic backbone for Elopomorpha are consistent between studies, the relationships among Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes, and Anguilliformes remain contentious and difficult to evaluate. This lack of phylogenetic resolution is problematic as fossil lineages are often described and placed taxonomically based on an assumed sister group relationship between Albula and Pterothrissus. In addition, phylogenetic studies using morphological data that sample elopomorph fossil lineages often do not include notacanthiform or anguilliform lineages, potentially introducing a bias toward interpreting fossils as members of the common stem of Pterothrissus and Albula. Here we provide a phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences sampled from multiple nuclear genes that include representative taxa from Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes and Anguilliformes. We integrate our molecular dataset with a morphological character matrix that spans both living and fossil elopomorph lineages. Our results reveal substantial uncertainty in the placement of Pterothrissus as well as all sampled fossil lineages, questioning the stability of the taxonomy of fossil Elopomorpha. However, despite topological uncertainty, our integration of fossil lineages into a Bayesian time calibrated framework provides divergence time estimates for the clade that are consistent with previously published age estimates based on the elopomorph fossil record and molecular estimates resulting from traditional node-dating methods.

Origin and diversification of living cycads: a cautionary tale on the impact of the branching process prior in Bayesian molecular dating

Background

Bayesian relaxed-clock dating has significantly influenced our understanding of the timeline of biotic evolution. This approach requires the use of priors on the branching process, yet little is known about their impact on divergence time estimates. We investigated the effect of branching priors using the iconic cycads. We conducted phylogenetic estimations for 237 cycad species using three genes and two calibration strategies incorporating up to six fossil constraints to (i) test the impact of two different branching process priors on age estimates, (ii) assess which branching prior better fits the data, (iii) investigate branching prior impacts on diversification analyses, and (iv) provide insights into the diversification history of cycads.

Results

Using Bayes factors, we compared divergence time estimates and the inferred dynamics of diversification when using Yule versus birth-death priors. Bayes factors were calculated with marginal likelihood estimated with stepping-stone sampling. We found striking differences in age estimates and diversification dynamics depending on prior choice. Dating with the Yule prior suggested that extant cycad genera diversified in the Paleogene and with two diversification rate shifts. In contrast, dating with the birth-death prior yielded Neogene diversifications, and four rate shifts, one for each of the four richest genera. Nonetheless, dating with the two priors provided similar age estimates for the divergence of cycads from Ginkgo (Carboniferous) and their crown age (Permian). Of these, Bayes factors clearly supported the birth-death prior.

Conclusions

These results suggest the choice of the branching process prior can have a drastic influence on our understanding of evolutionary radiations. Therefore, all dating analyses must involve a model selection process using Bayes factors to select between a Yule or birth-death prior, in particular on ancient clades with a potential pattern of high extinction. We also provide new insights into the history of cycad diversification because we found (i) periods of extinction along the long branches of the genera consistent with fossil data, and (ii) high diversification rates within the Miocene genus radiations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0347-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An engine for global plant diversity: highest evolutionary turnover and emigration in the American tropics

Understanding the processes that have generated the latitudinal biodiversity gradient and the continental differences in tropical biodiversity remains a major goal of evolutionary biology. Here we estimate the timing and direction of range shifts of extant flowering plants (angiosperms) between tropical and non-tropical zones, and into and out of the major tropical regions of the world. We then calculate rates of speciation and extinction taking into account incomplete taxonomic sampling. We use a recently published fossil calibrated phylogeny and apply novel bioinformatic tools to code species into user-defined polygons. We reconstruct biogeographic history using stochastic character mapping to compute relative numbers of range shifts in proportion to the number of available lineages through time. Our results, based on the analysis of c. 22,600 species and c. 20 million geo-referenced occurrence records, show no significant differences between the speciation and extinction of tropical and non-tropical angiosperms. This suggests that at least in plants, the latitudinal biodiversity gradient primarily derives from other factors than differential rates of diversification. In contrast, the outstanding species richness found today in the American tropics (the Neotropics), as compared to tropical Africa and tropical Asia, is associated with significantly higher speciation and extinction rates. This suggests an exceedingly rapid evolutionary turnover, i.e., Neotropical species being formed and replaced by one another at unparalleled rates. In addition, tropical America stands out from other continents by having “pumped out” more species than it received through most of the last 66 million years. These results imply that the Neotropics have acted as an engine for global plant diversity.

Assessing the impact of phylogenetic incongruence on taxonomy, floral evolution, biogeographical history, and phylogenetic diversity

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Phylogenetic incongruence between "gene trees" and "species trees" has been widely acknowledged in phylogenetic research. Conflicts may emerge from several processes including paralogy, hybridization, and incomplete lineage sorting. Although phylogenetic incongruence appears common, its impact on many phylogeny-based analyses remains poorly understood.

METHODS

We examined the occurrence of phylogenetic conflict between nuclear (ribosome ITS) and plastid (rbcL, trnL-F, rpl20-rps12, and rps16 intron) loci in the ancient angiosperm family Chloranthaceae. Then we investigated how phylogenetic conflict bears on taxonomic classification within the family as well as on inferences on biogeographical history, floral evolution, and measures of phylogenetic diversity (PD).

KEY RESULTS

We found evidence for significant phylogenetic incongruence between plastid and nuclear data in the genus Hedyosmum. Within Hedyosmum, our results did not support previous subgeneric classification of the genus. Division of sections within subgenus Tafalla was supported by the ITS data but not by the plastid data set. As a consequence, we showed that inferring the evolution of key floral characters and geographical history within Hedyosmum depends on the phylogenetic data used. Both data sets yielded similar PD measures across genera, but we found contrasting PD measures in Hedyosmum, even after correcting for rate heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that phylogenetic conflict not only affects the inference of organismal relationships but also impacts our understanding of biogeographical history, morphological evolution, and phylogenetic diversity.

Baleen boom and bust: a synthesis of mysticete phylogeny, diversity and disparity

A new, fully dated total-evidence phylogeny of baleen whales (Mysticeti) shows that evolutionary phases correlate strongly with Caenozoic modernization of the oceans and climates, implying a major role for bottom-up physical drivers. The phylogeny of 90 modern and dated fossil species suggests three major phases in baleen whale history: an early adaptive radiation (36-30 Ma), a shift towards bulk filter-feeding (30-23 Ma) and a climate-driven diversity loss around 3 Ma. Evolutionary rates and disparity were high following the origin of mysticetes around 38 Ma, coincident with global cooling, abrupt Southern Ocean eutrophication and the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Subsequently, evolutionary rates and disparity fell, becoming nearly constant after approximately 23 Ma as the ACC reached its full strength. By contrast, species diversity rose until 15 Ma and then remained stable, before dropping sharply with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This decline coincided with the final establishment of modern mysticete gigantism and may be linked to glacially driven variability in the distribution of shallow habitats or an increased need for long-distance migration related to iron-mediated changes in glacial marine productivity.

Integrated analyses resolve conflicts over squamate reptile phylogeny and reveal unexpected placements for fossil taxa

Squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes) are a pivotal group whose relationships have become increasingly controversial. Squamates include >9000 species, making them the second largest group of terrestrial vertebrates. They are important medicinally and as model systems for ecological and evolutionary research. However, studies of squamate biology are hindered by uncertainty over their relationships, and some consider squamate phylogeny unresolved, given recent conflicts between molecular and morphological results. To resolve these conflicts, we expand existing morphological and molecular datasets for squamates (691 morphological characters and 46 genes, for 161 living and 49 fossil taxa, including a new set of 81 morphological characters and adding two genes from published studies) and perform integrated analyses. Our results resolve higher-level relationships as indicated by molecular analyses, and reveal hidden morphological support for the molecular hypothesis (but not vice-versa). Furthermore, we find that integrating molecular, morphological, and paleontological data leads to surprising placements for two major fossil clades (Mosasauria and Polyglyphanodontia). These results further demonstrate the importance of combining fossil and molecular information, and the potential problems of estimating the placement of fossil taxa from morphological data alone. Thus, our results caution against estimating fossil relationships without considering relevant molecular data, and against placing fossils into molecular trees (e.g. for dating analyses) without considering the possible impact of molecular data on their placement.

Taxonomy and Phylogeny Can Yield Comparable Results in Comparative Paleontological Analyses

Many extinct taxa with extensive fossil records and mature taxonomic classifications have not yet been the subject of formal phylogenetic analysis. Here, we test whether the taxonomies available for such groups represent useful (i.e., non-misleading) substitutes for trees derived from matrix-based phylogenetic analyses. We collected data for 52 animal clades that included fossil representatives, and for which a recent cladogram and pre-cladistic taxonomy were available. We quantified the difference between the time-scaled phylogenies implied by taxonomies and cladograms using the matching cluster distance metric. We simulated phenotypic trait values and used them to estimate a series of commonly used, phylogenetically explicit measures (phylogenetic signal [Blomberg's [Formula: see text]], phylogenetic generalized least squares [PGLS], mode of evolution [Brownian vs. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck], and phylogenetic clustering of extinction [Fritz and Purvis' [Formula: see text]]) in order to determine the degree to which they co-varied on taxonomic and cladistic trees. With respect to topology taxonomies are good approximations of the underlying evolutionary relationships as recorded in inferred cladograms. Detection of phylogenetic clustering of extinction could not be properly assessed. For all other evolutionary analyses, results from taxonomy-based phylogenies (TBPs) co-varied with those from cladogram-based phylogenies (CBPs), but individual comparisons could be misleading. The relative length of terminal branches (influenced by stratigraphy and sampling rate) is a key control on the shared information between, and therefore the relative performance of, TBP and CBP. Collectively these results suggest that under particular circumstances and after careful consideration some taxonomies, or composite trees that incorporate taxonomic information, could be used in place of a formal analytical solution, but workers must be cautious. This opens certain parts of a previously inaccessible section of the fossil record to interrogation within an explicit comparative framework, which will help to test many classical macroevolutionary hypotheses formulated for groups that currently lack formal phylogenetic estimates.

Concatenation and Species Tree Methods Exhibit Statistically Indistinguishable Accuracy under a Range of Simulated Conditions

Phylogeneticists have long understood that several biological processes can cause a gene tree to disagree with its species tree. In recent years, molecular phylogeneticists have increasingly foregone traditional supermatrix approaches in favor of species tree methods that account for one such source of error, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS). While gene tree-species tree discordance no doubt poses a significant challenge to phylogenetic inference with molecular data, researchers have only recently begun to systematically evaluate the relative accuracy of traditional and ILS-sensitive methods. Here, we report on simulations demonstrating that concatenation can perform as well or better than methods that attempt to account for sources of error introduced by ILS. Based on these and similar results from other researchers, we argue that concatenation remains a useful component of the phylogeneticist’s toolbox and highlight that phylogeneticists should continue to make explicit comparisons of results produced by contemporaneous and classical methods.

Flying rocks and flying clocks: disparity in fossil and molecular dates for birds

Major disparities are recognized between molecular divergence dates and fossil ages for critical nodes in the Tree of Life, but broad patterns and underlying drivers remain elusive. We harvested 458 molecular age estimates for the stem and crown divergences of 67 avian clades to explore empirical patterns between these alternate sources of temporal information. These divergence estimates were, on average, over twice the age of the oldest fossil in these clades. Mitochondrial studies yielded older ages than nuclear studies for the vast majority of clades. Unexpectedly, disparity between molecular estimates and the fossil record was higher for divergences within major clades (crown divergences) than divergences between major clades (stem divergences). Comparisons of dates from studies classed by analytical methods revealed few significant differences. Because true divergence ages can never be known with certainty, our study does not answer the question of whether fossil gaps or molecular dating error account for a greater proportion of observed disparity. However, empirical patterns observed here suggest systemic overestimates for shallow nodes in existing molecular divergence dates for birds. We discuss underlying biases that may drive these patterns.

Genes associated with ant social behavior show distinct transcriptional and evolutionary patterns

Studies of the genetic basis and evolution of complex social behavior emphasize either conserved or novel genes. To begin to reconcile these perspectives, we studied how the evolutionary conservation of genes associated with social behavior depends on regulatory context, and whether genes associated with social behavior exist in distinct regulatory and evolutionary contexts. We identified modules of co-expressed genes associated with age-based division of labor between nurses and foragers in the ant Monomorium pharaonis, and we studied the relationship between molecular evolution, connectivity, and expression. Highly connected and expressed genes were more evolutionarily conserved, as expected. However, compared to the rest of the genome, forager-upregulated genes were much more highly connected and conserved, while nurse-upregulated genes were less connected and more evolutionarily labile. Our results indicate that the genetic architecture of social behavior includes both highly connected and conserved components as well as loosely connected and evolutionarily labile components.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04775.001

Animal species vary widely in their degree of social behavior. Some species live solitarily, and others, such as ants and humans, form large societies. Many researchers have tried to understand the genetic changes underlying the evolution of social behavior. Some researchers suggest that it involves recycling existing genes that also have other conserved functions. Others propose that the evolution of social behavior involves completely new genes that are not found in related but solitary species.

Ants are one of the best-studied social animals. An established colony can contain many 1000s of individuals that live and work together and perform different roles. The queen's job is to lay eggs, while the worker ants do everything else, including collecting food, caring for the young, and protecting the colony. In some species of ant—including the pharaoh ant—a worker's role changes as it ages. Younger workers tend to stay in the nest and nurse the brood, while older workers tend to leave the nest and forage for food.

Mikheyev and Linksvayer asked: which genes are responsible for this age-based division of labor? And how did this aspect of social behavior evolve? First, after observing pharaoh ants from two colonies set up in the laboratory, they confirmed that workers nursing the brood were on average almost a week younger than those seen collecting food. Next Mikheyev and Linksvayer identified which genes were expressed in ants of different ages, or ants engaged in different tasks. Specific sets of genes were expressed more (or ‘up-regulated’) in nurse workers, while others were up-regulated in foraging workers.

Mikheyev and Linksvayer then investigated how rapidly these genes had evolved by comparing them to related genes found in other social insects (fire ants and honey bees). They also determined the ‘connectivity’ of these genes by asking how many other genes showed similar expression patterns. In many organisms, how rapidly a gene evolves depends on how tightly connected its expression is to the expression of other genes; highly connected genes evolve more slowly.

The genes that were expressed more in the older foraging workers were both more highly connected and more evolutionarily conserved in the other social insects. Genes that were up-regulated in the younger nurse workers were more loosely connected and rapidly evolving.

Mikheyev and Linksvayer's findings show that the evolution of social behavior in animals involves both new genes, which tend to be loosely connected, and conserved genes, which tend to be more highly connected.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04775.002

The Importance of Fossils in Understanding the Evolution of Parasites and Their Vectors

Knowledge concerning the diversity of parasitism and its reach across our current understanding of the tree of life has benefitted considerably from novel molecular phylogenetic methods. However, the timing of events and the resolution of the nature of the intimate relationships between parasites and their hosts in deep time remain problematic. Despite its vagaries, the fossil record provides the only direct evidence of parasites and parasitism in the fossil record of extant and extinct lineages. Here, we demonstrate the potential of the fossil record and other lines of geological evidence to calibrate the origin and evolution of parasitism by combining different kinds of dating evidence with novel molecular clock methodologies. Other novel methods promise to provide additional evidence for the presence or the life habit of pathogens and their vectors, including the discovery and analysis of ancient DNA and other biomolecules, as well as computed tomographic methods.

Morphological phylogenetics of the Tenthredinidae (Insecta : Hymenoptera)

The Tenthredinoidea is the most diverse superfamily of non-apocritan Hymenoptera. It is also one of the largest herbivorous groups within the order, some species having substantial economic impact. Until very recently, no comprehensive phylogenetic analyses of the superfamily had been undertaken. This paper presents the largest morphological dataset assembled so far for elucidating the phylogeny of the Tenthredinoidea. In total, 129 taxa were scored for 146 characters from the adult head, thorax, wings and ovipositor apparatus. The emphasis of the taxon sample is on Tenthredinidae (104 terminals), which is by far the largest family in the Tenthredinoidea. The results of the cladistic analyses confirm the monophyly of the Tenthredinoidea, the first split being between the Blasticotomidae and the remaining families (Tenthredinoidea s. str., also monophyletic), and the monophyly of all families except Tenthredinidae. The analyses fail to consistently retrieve any of the six currently recognised subfamilies within Tenthredinidae, although core clades of Heterarthrinae, Nematinae, Selandriinae and Tenthredininae are often supported. Diprionidae are placed inside the Nematinae under some weighting conditions. The failure to corroborate the tenthredinid subfamilies might be ascribed to an insufficient character/terminal ratio, but also to problems with the existing classification. Inclusion of characters from the male genitalia and the larval stages as well as molecular data currently being assembled will hopefully lead to a more robust classification of the Tenthredinidae in the future.

Characterization of the uncertainty of divergence time estimation under relaxed molecular clock models using multiple loci

Genetic sequence data provide information about the distances between species or branch lengths in a phylogeny, but not about the absolute divergence times or the evolutionary rates directly. Bayesian methods for dating species divergences estimate times and rates by assigning priors on them. In particular, the prior on times (node ages on the phylogeny) incorporates information in the fossil record to calibrate the molecular tree. Because times and rates are confounded, our posterior time estimates will not approach point values even if an infinite amount of sequence data are used in the analysis. In a previous study we developed a finite-sites theory to characterize the uncertainty in Bayesian divergence time estimation in analysis of large but finite sequence data sets under a strict molecular clock. As most modern clock dating analyses use more than one locus and are conducted under relaxed clock models, here we extend the theory to the case of relaxed clock analysis of data from multiple loci (site partitions). Uncertainty in posterior time estimates is partitioned into three sources: Sampling errors in the estimates of branch lengths in the tree for each locus due to limited sequence length, variation of substitution rates among lineages and among loci, and uncertainty in fossil calibrations. Using a simple but analogous estimation problem involving the multivariate normal distribution, we predict that as the number of loci (L) goes to infinity, the variance in posterior time estimates decreases and approaches the infinite-data limit at the rate of 1/L, and the limit is independent of the number of sites in the sequence alignment. We then confirmed the predictions by using computer simulation on phylogenies of two or three species, and by analyzing a real genomic data set for six primate species. Our results suggest that with the fossil calibrations fixed, analyzing multiple loci or site partitions is the most effective way for improving the precision of posterior time estimation. However, even if a huge amount of sequence data is analyzed, considerable uncertainty will persist in time estimates.

Bayesian inference of sampled ancestor trees for epidemiology and fossil calibration

Phylogenetic analyses which include fossils or molecular sequences that are sampled through time require models that allow one sample to be a direct ancestor of another sample. As previously available phylogenetic inference tools assume that all samples are tips, they do not allow for this possibility. We have developed and implemented a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to infer what we call sampled ancestor trees, that is, trees in which sampled individuals can be direct ancestors of other sampled individuals. We use a family of birth-death models where individuals may remain in the tree process after sampling, in particular we extend the birth-death skyline model [Stadler et al., 2013] to sampled ancestor trees. This method allows the detection of sampled ancestors as well as estimation of the probability that an individual will be removed from the process when it is sampled. We show that even if sampled ancestors are not of specific interest in an analysis, failing to account for them leads to significant bias in parameter estimates. We also show that sampled ancestor birth-death models where every sample comes from a different time point are non-identifiable and thus require one parameter to be known in order to infer other parameters. We apply our phylogenetic inference accounting for sampled ancestors to epidemiological data, where the possibility of sampled ancestors enables us to identify individuals that infected other individuals after being sampled and to infer fundamental epidemiological parameters. We also apply the method to infer divergence times and diversification rates when fossils are included along with extant species samples, so that fossilisation events are modelled as a part of the tree branching process. Such modelling has many advantages as argued in the literature. The sampler is available as an open-source BEAST2 package (https://github.com/CompEvol/sampled-ancestors).

A central goal of phylogenetic analysis is to estimate evolutionary relationships and the dynamical parameters underlying the evolutionary branching process (e.g. macroevolutionary or epidemiological parameters) from molecular data. The statistical methods used in these analyses require that the underlying tree branching process is specified. Standard models for the branching process which were originally designed to describe the evolutionary past of present day species do not allow one sampled taxon to be the ancestor of another. However the probability of sampling a direct ancestor is not negligible for many types of data. For example, when fossil and living species are analysed together to infer species divergence times, fossil species may or may not be direct ancestors of living species. In epidemiology, a sampled individual (a host from which a pathogen sequence was obtained) can infect other individuals after sampling, which then go on to be sampled themselves. The models that account for direct ancestors produce phylogenetic trees with a different structure from classic phylogenetic trees and so using these models in inference requires new computational methods. Here we developed a method for phylogenetic analysis that accounts for the possibility of direct ancestors.

Phylogeny and niche conservatism in North and Central American triatomine bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae), vectors of Chagas' disease

The niche conservatism hypothesis states that related species diverge in niche characteristics at lower rates than expected, given their lineage divergence. Here we analyze whether niche conservatism is a common pattern among vector species (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) of Trypanosoma cruzi that inhabit North and Central America, a highly heterogeneous landmass in terms of environmental gradients. Mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used in a multi-locus phylogenetic framework to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among species and estimate time of divergence of selected clades to draw biogeographic inferences. Then, we estimated similarity between the ecological niche of sister species and tested the niche conservatism hypothesis using our best estimate of phylogeny. Triatoma is not monophyletic. A primary clade with all North and Central American (NCA) triatomine species from the genera Triatoma, Dipetalogaster, and Panstrongylus, was consistently recovered. Nearctic species within the NCA clade (T. p. protracta, T. r. rubida) diverged during the Pliocene, whereas the Neotropical species (T. phyllosoma, T. longipennis, T. dimidiata complex) are estimated to have diverged more recently, during the Pleistocene. The hypothesis of niche conservatism could not be rejected for any of six sister species pairs. Niche similarity between sister species best fits a retention model. While this framework is used here to infer niche evolution, it has a direct impact on spatial vector dynamics driven by human population movements, expansion of transportation networks and climate change scenarios.

Aurantioporthe corni gen. et comb. nov., an endophyte and pathogen of Cornus alternifolia

Cryptodiaporthe corni is the causal agent of a destructive disease called golden canker, which affects Cornus alternifolia, known as the pagoda or alternate-leaved dogwood. Due to the association between Cr. corni and pagoda dogwood, we sought to determine whether this fungus was capable of living as an endophyte in pagoda dogwood and causing this disease. Forty asymptomatic stems of plants growing in nature were sampled from five sites across Minnesota. Cryptodiaporthe corni was present in more than half (62.5%) of the stems. Asymptomatic nursery material also was sampled, and the fungus was isolated from a small percentage (20%) of them. Inoculations carried out in the field and greenhouse suggested the endophytic isolates of Cr. corni were capable of causing disease. Asymptomatic stems of trees in the field inoculated with non-colonized (control) grain seed developed golden canker as frequently as those inoculated with grain seed colonized by Cr. corni, suggesting that the fungus was already present in these plants. In greenhouse pathogenicity trials an isolate of Cr. corni obtained from an asymptomatic stem was capable of causing golden canker disease, thus demonstrating causality, fulfilling Koch's postulates. The taxonomic placement of Cr. corni within Cryphonectriaceae was determined. Phylogenetic analysis of the ITS rDNA and β-tubulin gene regions, along with morphological characteristics, suggested Cr. corni is distinct from other genera within this family. Therefore, we propose a new genus, Aurantioporthe, as well as the new combination, A. corni, to accommodate this species within Cryphonectriaceae.

An evaluation of fossil tip-dating versus node-age calibrations in tetraodontiform fishes (Teleostei: Percomorphaceae)

Time-calibrated phylogenies based on molecular data provide a framework for comparative studies. Calibration methods to combine fossil information with molecular phylogenies are, however, under active development, often generating disagreement about the best way to incorporate paleontological data into these analyses. This study provides an empirical comparison of the most widely used approach based on node-dating priors for relaxed clocks implemented in the programs BEAST and MrBayes, with two recently proposed improvements: one using a new fossilized birth-death process model for node dating (implemented in the program DPPDiv), and the other using a total-evidence or tip-dating method (implemented in MrBayes and BEAST). These methods are applied herein to tetraodontiform fishes, a diverse group of living and extinct taxa that features one of the most extensive fossil records among teleosts. Previous estimates of time-calibrated phylogenies of tetraodontiforms using node-dating methods reported disparate estimates for their age of origin, ranging from the late Jurassic to the early Paleocene (ca. 150-59Ma). We analyzed a comprehensive dataset with 16 loci and 210 morphological characters, including 131 taxa (95 extant and 36 fossil species) representing all families of fossil and extant tetraodontiforms, under different molecular clock calibration approaches. Results from node-dating methods produced consistently younger ages than the tip-dating approaches. The older ages inferred by tip dating imply an unlikely early-late Jurassic (ca. 185-119Ma) origin for this order and the existence of extended ghost lineages in their fossil record. Node-based methods, by contrast, produce time estimates that are more consistent with the stratigraphic record, suggesting a late Cretaceous (ca. 86-96Ma) origin. We show that the precision of clade age estimates using tip dating increases with the number of fossils analyzed and with the proximity of fossil taxa to the node under assessment. This study suggests that current implementations of tip dating may overestimate ages of divergence in calibrated phylogenies. It also provides a comprehensive phylogenetic framework for tetraodontiform systematics and future comparative studies.

Bayesian analysis using a simple likelihood model outperforms parsimony for estimation of phylogeny from discrete morphological data

Despite the introduction of likelihood-based methods for estimating phylogenetic trees from phenotypic data, parsimony remains the most widely-used optimality criterion for building trees from discrete morphological data. However, it has been known for decades that there are regions of solution space in which parsimony is a poor estimator of tree topology. Numerous software implementations of likelihood-based models for the estimation of phylogeny from discrete morphological data exist, especially for the Mk model of discrete character evolution. Here we explore the efficacy of Bayesian estimation of phylogeny, using the Mk model, under conditions that are commonly encountered in paleontological studies. Using simulated data, we describe the relative performances of parsimony and the Mk model under a range of realistic conditions that include common scenarios of missing data and rate heterogeneity.

Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record

Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used together to describe the relationship between time trees and a set of fossil data, which we recommend be phylogenetically vetted and referred on the basis of apomorphy. Differences from previously proposed metrics and the utility of MDI and DIG range are illustrated in three empirical case studies from angiosperms, ostracods, and birds. These case studies also illustrate the ways in which MDI and DIG range may be used to assess time trees resultant from analyses varying in calibration regime, divergence dating approach or molecular sequence data analyzed.