China's fight to halt tree cover loss

China is investing immense resources for planting trees, totalling more than US$ 100 billion in the past decade alone. Every year, China reports more afforestation than the rest of the world combined. Here, we show that China's forest cover gains are highly definition-dependent. If the definition of ‘forest’ follows FAO criteria (including immature and temporarily unstocked areas), China has gained 434 000 km² between 2000 and 2010. However, remotely detectable gains of vegetation that non-specialists would view as forest (tree cover higher than 5 m and minimum 50% crown cover) are an order of magnitude less (33 000 km²). Using high-resolution maps and environmental modelling, we estimate that approximately 50% of the world's forest with minimum 50% crown cover has been lost in the past approximately 10 000 years. China historically lost 1.9–2.7 million km² (59–67%), and substantial losses continue. At the same time, most of China's afforestation investment targets environments that our model classes as unsuitable for trees. Here, gains detectable via satellite imagery are limited. Conversely, the regions where modest gains are detected are environmentally suitable but have received little afforestation investment due to conflicting land-use demands for agriculture and urbanization. This highlights the need for refined forest monitoring, and greater consideration of environmental suitability in afforestation programmes.

Botanic gardens should lead the way to create a "Garden Earth" in the Anthropocene

The strength and expertise that botanic gardens bring to conservation are based on their detailed knowledge and understanding of the care, management, and biology of a diversity of plant species. This emphasis on the organism has led to many ex-situ and in-situ conservation programs aimed at protecting endangered species, restoring threatened populations, and establishing living plant and seed collections of endangered species. In China, the scale and pace of change in land and resource use, often leading to environmental degradation, has created a strong emphasis on improving environmental conditions. If done properly, being "green" can be a surprisingly complex issue, because it should encompass and exploit the whole of plant diversity and function. Unfortunately, 'green' often includes a small portion of this whole. Earth's rich plant diversity presents considerable opportunity but requires expertise and knowledge for stable and beneficial management. With the dawning of the Anthropocene, we should strive to live on a "Garden Earth", where we design and manage our environments, both built and natural, to create a healthy, beneficial living landscape for people and other organisms. The staff of botanic gardens worldwide and the living collections they maintain embody the best examples of sustainable, beautiful, and beneficial environments that thrive on plant diversity. This expertise should be a fundamental resource for agencies in all sectors responsible for managing and designing "green" infrastructure. Botanic gardens should actively engage and contribute to these opportunities, from large public infrastructure projects to small private conservation efforts. Here, we discuss several ongoing conservation efforts, primarily in China, and attempt to identify areas where botanic gardens could make a significant and meaningful difference.

Assessing ecosystem service provision under climate change to support conservation and development planning in Myanmar

Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flow-under current and future climate conditions-is especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the country's people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies.

Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.

Human influence on the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of forest biomass carbon in China

Global carbon cycles are impacted by human activity primarily via fossil fuel combustion and forest carbon budget alterations. In this study, the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of forest biomass carbon (FBC) stock and density in China were analyzed to assess the large‐scale effects of humans on FBC. The results indicated that from 1977 to 2013, the FBC stock increased by 62.9%, from 4,335 to 7,064 Tg C, owing to human‐driven forestation and ecological restoration programs. Because of intensive human impacts, 44.2%–54.6% of the FBC stock was concentrated in four provinces (Heilongjiang, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan) and the FBC density increased from the densely populated southeastern provinces to the sparsely populated northeastern and western provinces. On a spatial scale, the FBC density was significantly negatively related to population density, and the degree of the dependence of the FBC density on population density has been declining since 1998. This improvement in human–forest relations is related to economic development and programs in China that have promoted forestation and reduced deforestation. These results suggest that human impacts, including forestation, deforestation, population density, and economic development, have played significant roles in determining the temporal and spatial variations of FBC in the anthropogenic era. Moreover, our findings have implications for forest management and improvement of the forest carbon sink in China.

Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Qinghai Lake Region of the Tibetan Plateau and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services

Exploration of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and its impacts on ecosystem services in Tibetan plateau is valuable for landscape and environmental conservation. In this study, we conduct spatial analysis on empirical land use and land cover data in the Qinghai Lake region for 1990, 2000, and 2010 and simulate land cover patterns for 2020. We then evaluate the impacts of LULCC on ecosystem service value (ESV), and analyze the sensitivity of ESV to LULCC to identify the ecologically sensitive area. Our results indicate that, from 1990 to 2010, the area of forest and grassland increased while the area of unused land decreased. Simulation results suggest that the area of grassland and forest will continue to increase and the area of cropland and unused land will decrease for 2010–2020. The ESV in the study area increased from 694.50 billion Yuan in 1990 to 714.28 billion Yuan in 2000, and to 696.72 billion Yuan in 2020. Hydrology regulation and waste treatment are the top two ecosystem services in this region. The towns surrounding the Qinghai Lake have high ESVs, especially in the north of the Qinghai Lake. The towns with high ESV sensitivity to LULCC are located in the northwest, while the towns in the north of the Qinghai Lake experienced substantial increase in sensitivity index from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020, especially for three regulation services and aesthetic landscape provision services.

Improving water quality in China: Environmental investment pays dividends

This study highlights how Chinese economic development detrimentally impacted water quality in recent decades and how this has been improved by enormous investment in environmental remediation funded by the Chinese government. To our knowledge, this study is the first to describe the variability of surface water quality in inland waters in China, the affecting drivers behind the changes, and how the government-financed conservation actions have impacted water quality. Water quality was found to be poorest in the North and the Northeast China Plain where there is greater coverage of developed land (cities + cropland), a higher gross domestic product (GDP), and higher population density. There are significant positive relationships between the concentration of the annual mean chemical oxygen demand (COD) and the percentage of developed land use (cities + cropland), GDP, and population density in the individual watersheds (p < 0.001). During the past decade, following Chinese government-financed investments in environmental restoration and reforestation, the water quality of Chinese inland waters has improved markedly, which is particularly evident from the significant and exponentially decreasing GDP-normalized COD and ammonium (NH₄⁺-N) concentrations. It is evident that the increasing GDP in China over the past decade did not occur at the continued expense of its inland water ecosystems. This offers hope for the future, also for other industrializing countries, that with appropriate environmental investments a high GDP can be reached and maintained, while simultaneously preserving inland aquatic ecosystems, particularly through management of sewage discharge.

Grassland restoration reduces water yield in the headstream region of Yangtze River

Large-scale ecological restoration programs are considered as one of the key strategies to enhance ecosystem services. The Headstream region of Yangtze River (HYZR), which is claimed to be China's Water Tower but witnessed the rapid grassland deterioration during 1970s-2000, has seen a series of grassland restoration programs since 2000. But few studies have thoroughly estimated the hydrological effect of this recent grassland restoration. Here we show that restoration significantly reduces growing-season water yield coefficient (WYC) from 0.37 ± 0.07 during 1982-1999 to 0.24 ± 0.07 during 2000-2012. Increased evapotranspiration (ET) is identified as the main driver for the observed decline in WYC. After factoring out climate change effects, vegetation restoration reduces streamflow by 9.75 ± 0.48 mm from the period 1982-1999 to the period 2000-2012, amounting to 16.4 ± 0. 80% of climatological growing-season streamflow. In contrary to water yield, restoration is conducive to soil water retention - an argument that is supported by long-term in-situ grazing exclusion experiment. Grassland restoration therefore improves local soil water conditions but undercuts gain in downstream water resources associated with precipitation increases.

Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China

Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales.

Using palaeolimnological data and historical records to assess long-term dynamics of ecosystem services in typical Yangtze shallow lakes (China)

Understanding the dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for sustainable resource management. Palaeolimnological records have a great potential to reveal long-term variations and dynamic interactions in ESs, especially supporting/regulating services, which are not easily quantified by documentary records. To elucidate the variations between eight important ESs in shallow lake ecosystems, we combined documentary records with palaeolimnological proxies (covering the past 100years) from two typical lakes (Lakes Taibai and Zhangdu) of the Yangtze River basin. Although all supporting services and some provisioning services have increased, the regulating services of the two lakes have markedly declined, in particular since the 1950s. Human activities, including hydrological intervention, nutrient input and land-use change, were identified as the main factors behind the observed variations. Both in Lake Taibai and Zhangdu, primary production and biodiversity (supporting services) have increased (synergies), whereas climate and water purification (regulating services) have significantly decreased (tradeoffs) since the 1950s when attempts were made by the local population to reach a higher land/fish ESs level. By considering long-term records, dynamic tradeoff and synergy relationship between various ESs relative to different types of human "modification" in a temporal perspective, we suggest valuable information can be gained in future lake management initiatives.

Spatial disparity dynamics of ecosystem service values and GDP in Shaanxi Province, China in the last 30 years

The regional policy in China is shifting from solely gross domestic product (GDP) orientation to development that is more balanced between economic growth and ecological protection, as well as achieving equality among regions. Using land use maps and the adjusted value coefficients to assess ecosystem service values (ESV) for the 1980s, 1995, 2000, and 2010, we estimated the ESV in Shaanxi Province for different years, and characterized the spatial and temporal distribution of ESV and GDP. The results demonstrated that the total value of ecosystem services in Shaanxi Province increased from 208.95 billion Yuan in the 1980s to 309.76 billion Yuan in 2010. Variation Coefficient (C_v) and Theil index (T) were used to reflect the disparities of GDP or ESV within the study area. The values of Cv in descending order are GDP, ESV per capita, ESV, and GDP per capita. The Theil indexes of GDP were much greater than the ones of ESV. Variations of Cv and T showed that disparity in GDP kept increasing from the 1980s to 2000, then decreased; while no significant change in regional disparity of ESV were detected in parallel. The cities with higher GDP usually contributed little to ESV, and vice versa. The variation in GDP and ESV, in terms of the prefectural totals and per capita values, increased from the 1980s to 2010. This study provides an accessible way for local decision makers to evaluate the regional balance between economic growth and ecosystem services.

Effects of ecological restoration projects on changes in land cover: A case study on the Loess Plateau in China

Changes in land cover have become key components of global environmental change and represent the impact of human activity. To better understand the fundamental processes of land transition characteristics before and after the implementation of ecological programmes, we determined the dominant systematic changes in land cover in Yongshou, a hilly-gully region on the Loess Plateau. This was achieved by performing an in-depth analysis of a cross-tabulation matrix and a modified spatial dynamic degree model. Our results indicated that (1) forest land and cultivated land were the most important land cover types in Yongshou and their persistence would greatly affect the landscape pattern of the entire region; (2) the most significant changing signals in the study area during the periods 1992–2000 and 2000–2013 were from immature forest land to forest land, cultivated land to orchards and orchards to construction land; and (3) the region that experienced the most changes during 1992–2000 was the densely populated county seat of Yongshou; however, from 2000–2013, the region of most changes was Changning, a town located in the northcentral region of Yongshou. These findings reveal the main characteristics of the land cover changes in this region and provide insight into the processes underlying these changes.

Human Activity Influences on Vegetation Cover Changes in Beijing, China, from 2000 to 2015

For centuries, the rapid development of human society has already made human activity the dominant factor in the terrestrial ecosystem. As the city of greatest importance in China, the capital Beijing has experienced eco-environmental changes with unprecedented economic and population growth during the past few decades. To better understand the ecological transition and its correlations in Beijing, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) images were used to investigate vegetation coverage changes using a dimidiate pixel model. Piecewise linear regression, bivariate-partial correlation analysis, and factor analysis were applied to the probing of the relationship between vegetation coverage changes and climatic/human-induced factors. The results showed that from 2000 to 2005, 2005 to 2010, and 2010 to 2015, Beijing experienced both restoration (6.33%, 10.08%, and 12.81%, respectively) and degradation (13.62%, 9.35%, and 9.49%, respectively). The correlation analysis results between climate and vegetation changes demonstrated that from 2000 to 2015, both the multi-year annual mean temperature (r = −0.819, p < 0.01) and the multi-year annual mean precipitation (r = 0.653, p < 0.05) had a significantly correlated relationship with vegetation change. The Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project (BTSSCP) has shown beneficial spatial effects on vegetation restoration; the total effectiveness in conservation areas (84.94 in 2000–2010) was much better than non-BTSSCP areas (34.34 in 2000–2010). The most contributory socioeconomic factors were the population (contribution = 54.356%) and gross domestic product (GDP) (contribution = 30.677%). The population showed a significantly negative correlation with the overall vegetation coverage (r = −0.684, p < 0.05). The GDP was significantly negatively correlated with vegetation in Tongzhou, Daxing, Central city, Fangshan, Shunyi, and Changping (r = −0.601, p < 0.01), while positively related in Huairou, Miyun, Pinggu, Mentougou and Yanqing (r = 0.614, p < 0.01). These findings confirm that human activity is a very significant factor in impacting and explaining vegetation changes, and that some socioeconomic influences on vegetation coverage are highly spatially heterogeneous, based on the context of different areas.

Strengthening protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in China

Recent expansion of the scale of human activities poses severe threats to Earth's life-support systems. Increasingly, protected areas (PAs) are expected to serve dual goals: protect biodiversity and secure ecosystem services. We report a nationwide assessment for China, quantifying the provision of threatened species habitat and four key regulating services-water retention, soil retention, sandstorm prevention, and carbon sequestration-in nature reserves (the primary category of PAs in China). We find that China's nature reserves serve moderately well for mammals and birds, but not for other major taxa, nor for these key regulating ecosystem services. China's nature reserves encompass 15.1% of the country's land surface. They capture 17.9% and 16.4% of the entire habitat area for threatened mammals and birds, but only 13.1% for plants, 10.0% for amphibians, and 8.5% for reptiles. Nature reserves encompass only 10.2-12.5% of the source areas for the four key regulating services. They are concentrated in western China, whereas much threatened species' habitat and regulating service source areas occur in eastern provinces. Our analysis illuminates a strategy for greatly strengthening PAs, through creating the first comprehensive national park system of China. This would encompass both nature reserves, in which human activities are highly restricted, and a new category of PAs for ecosystem services, in which human activities not impacting key services are permitted. This could close the gap in a politically feasible way. We also propose a new category of PAs globally, for sustaining the provision of ecosystems services and achieving sustainable development goals.

Science for the sustainable use of ecosystem services

Sustainability is a key challenge for humanity in the 21st century. Ecosystem services—the benefits that people derive from nature and natural capital—is a concept often used to help explain human reliance on nature and frame the decisions we make in terms of the ongoing value of nature to human wellbeing. Yet ecosystem service science has not always lived up to the promise of its potential. Despite advances in the scientific literature, ecosystem service science has not yet answered some of the most critical questions posed by decision-makers in the realm of sustainability. Here, we explore the history of ecosystem service science, discuss advances in conceptualization and measurement, and point toward further work needed to improve the use of ecosystem service in decisions about sustainable development.

Quantifying and sustaining biodiversity in tropical agricultural landscapes

Decision-makers increasingly seek scientific guidance on investing in nature, but biodiversity remains difficult to estimate across diverse landscapes. Here, we develop empirically based models for quantifying biodiversity across space. We focus on agricultural lands in the tropical forest biome, wherein lies the greatest potential to conserve or lose biodiversity. We explore two questions, drawing from empirical research oriented toward pioneering policies in Costa Rica. First, can remotely sensed tree cover serve as a reliable basis for improved estimation of biodiversity, from plots to regions? Second, how does tropical biodiversity change across the land-use gradient from native forest to deforested cropland and pasture? We report on understory plants, nonflying mammals, bats, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. Using data from 67,737 observations of 908 species, we test how tree cover influences biodiversity across space. First, we find that fine-scale mapping of tree cover predicts biodiversity within a taxon-specific radius (of 30-70 m) about a point in the landscape. Second, nearly 50% of the tree cover in our study region is embedded in countryside forest elements, small (typically 0.05-100 ha) clusters or strips of trees on private property. Third, most species use multiple habitat types, including crop fields and pastures (to which 15% of species are restricted), although some taxa depend on forest (57% of species are restricted to forest elements). Our findings are supported by comparisons of 90 studies across Latin America. They provide a basis for a planning tool that guides investments in tropical forest biodiversity similar to those for securing ecosystem services.