In-Hospital Outcomes and Costs Among Patients Hospitalized During a Return Visit to the Emergency Department

Where Patients Live Matter in Emergency Department Visits in Home Health Care: Rural/Urban Status and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status

An increasing body of evidence highlights the importance of an individual's place of residence on their health and functional outcomes. This study is based on Outcome and Assessment Information Set data to assess the differences in emergency department visits among Medicare home health care patients by patients' residence location (rural/urban status and neighborhood socioeconomic status). Compared to urban patients, a disproportionately higher proportion of rural patients lived in more or most disadvantaged neighborhoods (83.9% vs. 41.3%). Using linear probability regression models, patients in rural areas (coefficient = .02, p < .001) and disadvantaged neighborhoods (less disadvantaged: coefficient = .02, p < .001; more disadvantaged: coefficient = .034, p < .001; most disadvantaged: coefficient = .042, p < .001) were more likely to experience emergency department visits. Policymakers should consider utilizing area-based target interventions to mitigate gaps in home health care. Also, given that the majority of rural patients reside in disadvantaged neighborhoods, neighborhood characteristics should be considered in addressing rural-urban disparities and improving home health care.

Evaluation of a Structured Review Process for Emergency Department Return Visits with Admission

BACKGROUND

Review of emergency department (ED) revisits with admission allows the identification of improvement opportunities. Applying a health equity lens to revisits may highlight potential disparities in care transitions. Universal definitions or practicable frameworks for these assessments are lacking. The authors aimed to develop a structured methodology for this quality assurance (QA) process, with a layered equity analysis.

METHODS

The authors developed a classification instrument to identify potentially preventable 72-hour returns with admission (PPRA-72), accounting for directed, unrelated, unanticipated, or disease progression returns. A second review team assessed the instrument reliability. A self-reported race/ethnicity (R/E) and language algorithm was developed to minimize uncategorizable data. Disposition distribution, return rates, and PPRA-72 classifications were analyzed for disparities using Pearson chi-square and Fisher's exact tests.

RESULTS

The PPRA-72 rate was 4.8% for 2022 ED return visits requiring admission. Review teams achieved 93% agreement (κ = 0.51) for the binary determination of PPRA-72 vs. nonpreventable returns. There were significant differences between R/E and language in ED dispositions (p < 0.001), with more frequent admissions for the R/E White at the index visit and Other at the 72-hour return visit. Rates of return visits within 72 hours differed significantly by R/E (p < 0.001) but not by language (p = 0.156), with the R/E Black most frequent to have a 72-hour return. There were no differences between R/E (p = 0.446) or language (p = 0.248) in PPRA-72 rates. The initiative led to system improvements through informatics optimizations, triage protocols, provider feedback, and education.

CONCLUSION

The authors developed a review methodology for identifying improvement opportunities across ED 72-hour returns. This QA process enabled the identification of areas of disparity, with the continuous aim to develop next steps in ensuring health equity in care transitions.

The emergency department trigger tool: Multicenter trigger query validation

OBJECTIVES

We previously described derivation and validation of the emergency department trigger tool (EDTT) for adverse event (AE) detection. As the first step in our multicenter study of the tool, we validated our computerized screen for triggers against manual review, establishing our use of this automated process for selecting records to review for AEs.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study of visits to three urban, academic EDs over 18 months by patients ≥ 18 years old. We reviewed 912 records: 852 with at least one of 34 triggers found by the query and 60 records with none. Two first-level reviewers per site each manually screened for triggers. After completion, computerized query results were revealed, and reviewers could revise their findings. Second-level reviewers arbitrated discrepancies. We compare automated versus manual screening by positive and negative predictive values (PPVs, NPVs), present population trigger frequencies, proportions of records triggered, and how often manual ratings were changed to conform with the query.

RESULTS

Trigger frequencies ranged from common (>25%) to rare (1/1000) were comparable at U.S. sites and slightly lower at the Canadian site. Proportions of triggered records ranged from 31% to 49.4%. Overall query PPV was 95.4%; NPV was 99.2%. PPVs for individual trigger queries exceeded 90% for 28-31 triggers/site and NPVs were >90% for all but three triggers at one site. Inter-rater reliability was excellent, with disagreement on manual screening results less than 5% of the time. Overall, reviewers amended their findings 1.5% of the time when discordant with query findings, more often when the query was positive than when negative (47% vs. 23%).

CONCLUSIONS

The EDTT trigger query performed very well compared to manual review. With some expected variability, trigger frequencies were similar across sites and proportions of triggered records ranged 31%-49%. This demonstrates the feasibility and generalizability of implementing the EDTT query, providing a solid foundation for testing the triggers' utility in detecting AEs.

Chief complaints and computed tomography results in the emergency department: a three-year retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography (CT) is frequently performed in the patients who admitted to the emergency department (ED), discharged but returned to ED within 72 h. It is unknown whether the main complaints of patients assist physicians to use CT effectively. This study aimed to find the association between chief complaints and the CT results.

METHODS

This three-year retrospective cohort study was conducted in the ED of a tertiary medical center. Adult patients who returned to the ED after the index visit were included from 2019 to 2021. Demographics, pre-existing diseases, chief complaints, and CT region were recorded by independent ED physicians. A logistic regression model with an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to determine the relationship between chief complaints and positive CT results.

RESULTS

In total, 7,699 patients revisited ED after the index visit; 1,202 (15.6%) received CT. The top chief complaints in patients who received CT were abdominal pain, dizziness, and muscle weakness. Patients with abdominal pain or gastrointestinal symptoms had a significantly higher rate of positive abdominopelvic CT than those without it (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.98-4.05, p < 0.001), while the central nervous system and cardiopulmonary chief complaints were not associated (or negatively associated) with new positive CT findings.

CONCLUSION

Chief complaints of patients on revisit to the ED are associated with different yields of new findings when CT scans of the chest, abdomen and head are performed. Physicians should consider these differential likelihoods of new positive findings based on these data.

Inequities among patient placement in emergency department hallway treatment spaces

BACKGROUND

Limited capacity in the emergency department (ED) secondary to boarding and crowding has resulted in patients receiving care in hallways to provide access to timely evaluation and treatment. However, there are concerns raised by physicians and patients regarding a decrease in patient centered care and quality resulting from hallway care. We sought to explore social risk factors associated with hallway placement and operational outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN/METHODS

Observational study between July 2017 and February 2020. Primary outcome was the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of patient placement in a hallway treatment space adjusting for patient demographics and ED operational factors. Secondary outcomes included left without being seen (LWBS), discharge against medical advice (AMA), elopement, 72-h ED revisit, 10-day ED revisit and escalation of care during boarding.

RESULTS

Among 361,377 ED visits, 100,079 (27.7%) visits were assigned to hallway beds. Patient insurance coverage (Medicaid (aOR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01,1.06) and Self-pay/Other (1.08, (1.03, 1.13))) with comparison to private insurance, and patient sex (Male (1.08, (1.06, 1.10))) with comparison to female sex are associated with higher odds of hallway placement but patient age, race, and language were not. These associations are adjusted for ED census, triage assigned severity, ED staffing, boarding level, and time effect, with social factors mutually adjusted. Additionally adjusting for patients' social factors, patients placed in hallways had higher odds of elopement (1.23 (1.07,1.41)), 72-h ED revisit (1.33 (1.08, 1.64)) and 10-day ED revisit (1.23 (1.11, 1.36)) comparing with patients placed in regular ED rooms. We did not find statistically significant associations between hallway placement and LWBS, discharge AMA, or escalation of care.

CONCLUSION

While hallway usage is ad hoc, we find consistent differences in care delivery with those insured by Medicaid and self-pay or male sex being placed in hallway beds. Further work should examine how new front-end processes such as provider in triage or split flow may be associated with inequities in patient access to emergency and hospital care.

Patient- and family-centred care transition interventions for adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs

Although patient centredness is part of providing high-quality health care, little is known about the effectiveness of care transition interventions that involve patients and their families on readmissions to the hospital or emergency visits post-discharge. This systematic review (SR) aimed to examine the evidence on patient- and family-centred (PFC) care transition interventions and evaluate their effectiveness on adults' hospital readmissions and emergency department (ED) visits after discharge. Searches of Medline, CINAHL, and Embase databases were conducted from the earliest available online year of indexing up to and including 14 March 2021. The studies included: (i) were about care transitions (hospital to home) of ≥18-year-old patients; (ii) had components of patient-centred care and care transition frameworks; (iii) reported on one or more outcomes were among hospital readmissions and ED visits after discharge; and (iv) were cluster-, pilot- or randomized-controlled trials published in English or French. Study selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were completed by two independent reviewers. A narrative synthesis was performed, and pooled odd ratios, standardized mean differences, and mean differences were calculated using a random-effects meta-analysis. Of the 10,021 citations screened, 50 trials were included in the SR and 44 were included in the meta-analyses. Care transition intervention types included health assessment, symptom and disease management, medication reconciliation, discharge planning, risk management, complication detection, and emotional support. Results showed that PFC care transition interventions significantly reduced the risk of hospital readmission rates compared to usual care [incident rate ratio (IRR), 0.86; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.98; I2 = 73%] regardless of time elapsed since discharge. However, these same interventions had minimal impact on the risk of ED visit rates compared to usual care group regardless of time passed after discharge (IRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85-1.18; I2 = 29%). PFC care transition interventions containing a greater number of patient-centred care (IRR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.94; I2 = 59%) and care transition components (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.64-0.91; I2 = 4%) significantly decreased the risk of patients being readmitted. However, these interventions did not significantly increase the risk of patients visiting the ED after discharge (IRR, 1.54; CI 95%, 0.91-2.61). Future interventions should focus on patients' and families' values, beliefs, needs, preferences, race, age, gender, and social determinants of health to improve the quality of adults' care transitions.

Role of soluble urokinase type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) in predicting mortality, readmission, length of stay and discharge in emergency patients: A systematic review and meta analysis

BACKGROUND

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is an inflammatory biomarker that is used to predict mortality, readmission, early discharge, and LOS, thus, serves as a useful tool for ED physicians. Our study aims to analyze the efficacy of suPAR in predicting these prognostic markers in ED.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search on 6 databases from the inception to 30th November 2022, to select the following eligibility criteria; a) observation or triage trial studies investigating the role of suPAR levels in predicting: 30 day and 90-day mortality, 30-day readmission, early discharge (within 24hr), and LOS in patients coming to AMU.

RESULTS

A total of 13 studies were included, with a population size of 35,178, of which 52.9% were female with a mean age of 62.93 years. Increased risk of 30-day mortality (RR = 10.52; 95% CI = 4.82-22.95; I2 = 38%; P < .00001), and risk of 90-day mortality (RR = 5.76; 95% CI = 3.35-9.91; I2 = 36%; P < .00001) was observed in high suPAR patients. However, a slightly increased risk was observed for 30-day readmission (RR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.16-1.94; I2 = 54%; P = .002). More people were discharged within 24hr in the low suPAR level group compared to high suPAR group (RR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.40-0.53; I2 = 41%; P < .00001). LOS was thrice as long in high suPAR level patients than in patients with low suPAR (WMD = 3.20; 95% CI = 1.84-4.56; I2 = 99%; P < .00001).

CONCLUSION

suPAR is proven to be a significant marker in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in ED patients.

Healthcare-associated adverse events and readmission to the emergency departments within seven days after a first consultation

Introduction

The use of emergency hospital service has become increasingly frequent with a rise of approximately 3.6%. in annual emergency department visits. The objective of this study was to describe the reasons for reconsultations to emergency departments and to identify the risk and protective factors of reconsultations linked to healthcare-associated adverse events.

Materials and methods

A retrospective, descriptive, multicenter study was performed in the emergency department of Troyes Hospital and the Sainte Anne Army Training Hospital in Toulon, France from January 1 to December 31, 2019. Patients over 18 years of age who returned to the emergency department for a reconsultation within 7 days were included. Healthcare-associated adverse events in the univariate analysis (p < 0.10) were introduced into a multivariate logistic regression model. Model performance was examined using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calculated with c-statistic.

Results

Weekend visits and performing radiology examinations were risk factors linked to healthcare associated adverse events. Biological examinations and the opinion of a specialist were protective factors.

Discussion

Numerous studies have reported that a first consultation occurring on a weekend is a reconsultation risk factor for healthcare-associated adverse events, however, performing radiology examinations were subjected to confusion bias. Patients having radiology examinations due to trauma-related pathologies were more apt for a reconsultation.

Conclusion

Our study supports the need for better emergency departments access to biological examinations and specialist second medical opinions. An appropriate patient to doctor ratio in hospital emergency departments may be necessary at all times.

Sociodemographic Disparities in Queue Jumping for Emergency Department Care

Importance

Emergency department (ED) triage models are intended to queue patients for treatment. In the absence of higher acuity, patients of the same acuity should room in order of arrival.

Objective

To characterize disparities in ED care access as unexplained queue jumps (UQJ), or instances in which acuity and first come, first served principles are violated.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Retrospective, cross-sectional study between July 2017 and February 2020. Participants were all ED patient arrivals at 2 EDs within a large Northeast health system. Data were analyzed from July to September 2022.

Exposure

UQJ was defined as a patient being placed in a treatment space ahead of a patient of higher acuity or of a same acuity patient who arrived earlier.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcomes were odds of a UQJ and association with ED outcomes of hallway placement, leaving before treatment complete, escalation to higher level of care while awaiting inpatient bed placement, and 72-hour ED revisitation. Secondary analysis examined UQJs among high acuity ED arrivals. Regression models (zero-inflated Poisson and logistic regression) adjusted for patient demographics and ED operational variables at time of triage.

Results

Of 314 763 included study visits, 170 391 (54.1%) were female, the mean (SD) age was 50.46 (20.5) years, 132 813 (42.2%) patients were non-Hispanic White, 106 401 (33.8%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 66 465 (21.1%) were Hispanic or Latino. Overall, 90 698 (28.8%) patients experienced a queue jump, and 78 127 (24.8%) and 44 551 (14.2%) patients were passed over by a patient of the same acuity or lower acuity, respectively. A total of 52 959 (16.8%) and 23 897 (7.6%) patients received care ahead of a patient of the same acuity or higher acuity, respectively. Patient demographics including Medicaid insurance (incident rate ratio [IRR], 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.14), Black non-Hispanic race (IRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07), Hispanic or Latino ethnicity (IRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08), and Spanish as primary language (IRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10) were independent social factors associated with being passed over. The odds of a patient receiving care ahead of others were lower for ED visits by Medicare insured (odds ratio [OR], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.96), Medicaid insured (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.77-0.85), Black non-Hispanic (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91-0.97), and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity (OR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.83-0.91). Patients who were passed over by someone of the same triage severity level had higher odds of hallway bed placement (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02) and leaving before disposition (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of ED patients in triage, there were consistent disparities among marginalized populations being more likely to experience a UQJ, hallway placement, and leaving without receiving treatment despite being assigned the same triage acuity as others. EDs should seek to standardize triage processes to mitigate conscious and unconscious biases that may be associated with timely access to emergency care.

High-risk Return Visits to United States Emergency Departments, 2010–2018

Introduction: Although factors related to a return visit to the emergency department (ED) have been reported, only a few studies have examined “high-risk” ED revisits with serious adverse outcomes. In this study we aimed to describe the incidence and trend of high-risk ED revisits in United States EDs and to investigate factors associated with these revisits. Methods: We obtained data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), 2010–2018. Adult ED revisits within 72 hours of a previous discharge were identified using a mark on the patient record form. We defined high-risk revisits as revisits with serious adverse outcomes, including intensive care unit admissions, emergency surgery, cardiac catheterization, or cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) during the return visit. We performed analyses using descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression, accounting for NHAMCS’s complex survey design. Results: Over the nine-year study period, there were an estimated 37,700,000 revisits, and the proportion of revisits in the entire ED population decreased slightly from 5.1% in 2010 to 4.5% in 2018 (P for trend = 0.02). By contrast, there were an estimated 827,000 high-risk ED revisits, and the proportion of high-risk revisits in the entire ED population remained stable at approximately 0.1%. The mean age of these high-risk revisit patients was 57 years, and 43% were men. Approximately 6% of the patients were intubated, and 13% received CPR. Most of them were hospitalized, and 2% died in the ED. Multivariable analysis showed that older age (65+ years), Hispanic ethnicity, daytime visits, and arrival by ambulance during the revisit were independent predictors of high-risk revisits. Conclusion: High-risk revisits accounted for a relatively small fraction (0.1%) of ED visits. Over the period of the NHAMCS survey between 2010-2018, this fraction remained stable. We identified factors during the return visit that could be used to label high-risk revisits for timely intervention.

Longitudinal Trends in Pediatric Return Visits to US Emergency Departments

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate trends in pediatric emergency department (ED) 72-hour return visits and factors associated with return visits.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study from 2002 to 2018 using the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, a complex survey of nonfederal US ED encounters. Patients 18 years or older were excluded. Our outcome of interest was 72-hour return ED encounter. We assessed changes in proportions of return visits over time using the Spearman rank-correlation test. We performed survey-weighted univariable and multivariable logistic regressions to identify factors associated with 72-hour return visit status.

RESULTS

A total of 501 million (95% confidence interval [CI], 452-551 million) pediatric survey-weighted ED encounters occurred during the 17-year study period, of which 14,353,697 (3.2%; 95% CI, 2.7%-3.7%) represented 72-hour return visits. The proportion of pediatric ED return visits increased from 22.9 to 36.5 per 1000 pediatric encounters over the study period (ρ = 0.68, P < 0.01). Most return visits were of lower acuity (73.0%; 95% CI, 68.6%-11.5%), and 8.1% (95% CI, 6.3%-9.9%) of return visits were admitted to the hospital or transferred to a different facility. In multivariable analyses, older age, abnormal heart rate, and abnormal temperature had lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 72-hour return visits compared with encounters not classified as return visit. Complaints of returning for test results, treatment, and diagnostic screening/administrative purposes were associated with a higher aOR of return visit. Admission/transfer (in comparison with discharge) had a higher odds of return visit status in univariable (odds ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.24-2.04) and multivariable (aOR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.68) analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of 72-hour US pediatric ED return visits is increasing over time. Return visit status was associated with admission/transfer, but otherwise with markers of lower patient acuity. These findings inform quality improvement efforts aimed at improving pediatric transition to outpatient care after an ED encounter.

Leveraging Large-Scale Electronic Health Records and Interpretable Machine Learning for Clinical Decision Making at the Emergency Department: Protocol for System Development and Validation

Background

There is a growing demand globally for emergency department (ED) services. An increase in ED visits has resulted in overcrowding and longer waiting times. The triage process plays a crucial role in assessing and stratifying patients’ risks and ensuring that the critically ill promptly receive appropriate priority and emergency treatment. A substantial amount of research has been conducted on the use of machine learning tools to construct triage and risk prediction models; however, the black box nature of these models has limited their clinical application and interpretation.

Objective

In this study, we plan to develop an innovative, dynamic, and interpretable System for Emergency Risk Triage (SERT) for risk stratification in the ED by leveraging large-scale electronic health records (EHRs) and machine learning.

Methods

To achieve this objective, we will conduct a retrospective, single-center study based on a large, longitudinal data set obtained from the EHRs of the largest tertiary hospital in Singapore. Study outcomes include adverse events experienced by patients, such as the need for an intensive care unit and inpatient death. With preidentified candidate variables drawn from expert opinions and relevant literature, we will apply an interpretable machine learning–based AutoScore to develop 3 SERT scores. These 3 scores can be used at different times in the ED, that is, on arrival, during ED stay, and at admission. Furthermore, we will compare our novel SERT scores with established clinical scores and previously described black box machine learning models as baselines. Receiver operating characteristic analysis will be conducted on the testing cohorts for performance evaluation.

Results

The study is currently being conducted. The extracted data indicate approximately 1.8 million ED visits by over 810,000 unique patients. Modelling results are expected to be published in 2022.

Conclusions

The SERT scoring system proposed in this study will be unique and innovative because of its dynamic nature and modelling transparency. If successfully validated, our proposed solution will establish a standard for data processing and modelling by taking advantage of large-scale EHRs and interpretable machine learning tools.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/34201

Intravenous antibiotics at the index emergency department visit as an independent risk factor for hospital admission at the return visit within 72 hours

Introduction

Although infection was the most common symptom in patients returning to the ED, whether intravenous antibiotic administration at the index visit could serve as an indicator of patients with infectious diseases at high risk for hospital admission after returning to the ED within a short period of time remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate the potential risk factors for hospital admission in patients returning to the ED within 72 hours with a final diagnosis of infectious diseases.

Material and methods

This retrospective cohort study analyzed return visits to the ED from January to December 2019. Adult patients aged >20 years who had a return visit to the ED within 72 hours with an infectious disease were included herein. In total, 715 eligible patients were classified into the intravenous antibiotics and non-intravenous antibiotics group (reference group). The outcome studied was hospital admission to general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) at the return visits.

Results

Patients receiving intravenous antibiotics at index visits had significantly higher risk—approximately two times—for hospital admission at the return visits than those did not (adjusted odds ratio = 2.47, 95% CI = 1.34–4.57, p = 0.004). For every 10 years increase in age, the likelihood for hospital admission increased by 38%. Other factors included abnormal respiratory rate and high C-reactive protein levels.

Conclusions

Intravenous antibiotic administration at the index visit was an independent risk factor for hospital admission at return visits in patients with an infection disease. Physicians should consider carefully before discharging patients receiving intravenous antibiotics.

Risk Factors and Reasons for Emergency Department Visits Within 30 Days of Elective Hand Surgery: An Analysis of 3,261 Patients

Background: The frequency of hand and elbow surgeries occurring in outpatient and elective settings is on the rise. Emergency department (ED) visits in the postoperative period are increasingly used as quality measures for surgical care. The aim of this study is to determine the number of postoperative ED visits, the primary reason for these visits, and to identify risk factors associated with these visits. Methods: We examined all elective hand and elbow procedures performed at two hospitals within a single healthcare network between 2008 and 2017. A total of 3,261 patients met the study criteria. Descriptive statistics were calculated for our population, followed by univariate and multivariate analyses, to identify risk and protective factors associated with ED visits in the first 30 days after surgery. Results: Eighty-seven of 3,261 patients presented to the ED within 30 days of their operation (2.7%). The most common reasons for ED visits were related to pain (28.7%), swelling (26.4%), and concerns for infection (20.7%). Univariate analysis indicated history of drug use, number of procedures, smoking history, and serum albumin <3.5 mg/dL as risk factors for returns to the ED. Multivariate analysis identified history of drug use, number of procedures, and serum albumin <3.5 mg/dL as independent risk factors. Smoking history failed to achieve statistical significance as an independent risk factor. Both univariate and multivariate analyses identified age >60 years as protective for postoperative ED visits. Conclusions: ED visits within the first 30 days after elective hand surgery are relatively common, despite remarkably low complication rates among these procedures. This information may help to improve risk stratification in these patients, and to aid in the development of enhanced postoperative follow-up strategies to reduce unnecessary utilization of emergency medical services. Level of Evidence: Level III (Therapeutic).

Clinician perspectives on reasons for, implications and management of unplanned patient returns to the Emergency Department: A descriptive study

BACKGROUND

Unplanned return visits to the emergency department (ED) have been associated with adverse outcomes and may reflect the quality of care delivered. Several studies speculate the reasons for return and suggest clinician behaviour as potentially influencing a patient's decision to return to the ED. There is little research about this issue from the clinician's perspective, which is necessary to inform future practice improvement.

METHODS

A descriptive cross sectional design was employed to ascertain perspectives on identification and management of return visits occurring within 48 hours of discharge. An electronic survey was distributed to all medical, nursing, and clerical staff at one ED. Descriptive statistics were used for quantitative data and content analysis was performed on textual data. Results were categorised as barriers or facilitators, then mapped to the Theoretical Domains Framework.

RESULTS

A response rate of 59.7% (n=86/144) was achieved. Staff reported increased levels of concern for this patient group but not all staff were aware of the policy for managing return patients (40.7%). Five barriers and three facilitators were identified that mapped to eight influencers of behaviour including knowledge, memory and environmental factors.

CONCLUSION

Overall, staff were aware of return patients but lacked familiarity with policy and processes to identify and commence relevant protocols. Further review of current practice as well as the patient perspective is required before any intervention to improve practice is developed.

A Framework for Quality Assurance of Pediatric Revisits to the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Emergency department return visits significantly impact medical costs and patient flow. A comprehensive approach to understanding these patients is required to identify deficits in care, system level inefficiencies, and improve diagnosis specific management protocols. We aimed to identify factors needed to successfully analyze return visits to explore root causes leading to unplanned returns and inform system-level improvements.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary committee collaborated to develop a quality review process for return visits within 72 hours to our pediatric emergency department that were then subsequently admitted to the hospital. The committee developed methodology and a web-based tool for chart review and analysis.

RESULTS

Of 197,076 ED visits (159,164 discharged at initial visit), 5390 (3.4%) patients were discharged and represented to the ED within 72 hours and 1658 (1.0%) of those resulted in admission. Using defined criteria, approximately one third (n = 564) of revisits with admission were identified for chart review. Reason for revisit included natural progression of disease (67.6%), new condition or problem (11.2%), diagnostic error (6.9%), and scheduled or planned readmissions (3.5%). All diagnostic errors had not been previously identified by ED leadership. Of the reviewed cases, most were not preventable (84.0%); however, a number of system-level actions resulted from discussion of the potentially preventable revisits.

CONCLUSIONS

Seventy-two-hour ED revisits were efficiently and systematically categorized with determination of root causes and preventability. This process resulted in shared provider-level feedback, identifying trends in revisits, and implementation of system-level actions, therefore, encouraging other institutions to adopt a similar process.

90-Day Return Visit to the Emergency Department After an Initial Neurosurgical Evaluation

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated emergency department (ED) neurosurgical reevaluation rates and their causes. Identifying the most significant reasons that make patients return to the ED for a neurosurgical reevaluation can help implement changes to reduce the economic and medical burden of patient turnover.

METHODS

All patients undergoing neurosurgical reevaluation at our institution's ED after an initial neurosurgical evaluation were enrolled in a prospective 3-month longitudinal registry. Inclusion criteria were all adult patients 21 years of age or older previously evaluated by neurosurgery at our institution's ED who return within 90 days for a neurosurgical reevaluation.

RESULTS

We found an overall 90-day ED neurosurgical return visit rate of 2.1%. During the study, 34 patients returned to the ED for a neurosurgical reevaluation. Patients returned for a neurosurgical reevaluation at a median of 23.5 days after the initial neurosurgery evaluation. The principal causes for a return visit were altered mental status, headache, and wound infections. Among the returning patients, 59% required hospitalization and 50% required an operation.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to prospectively collect data to estimate the 90-day ED return visit rate for a neurosurgical reevaluation following an initial ED neurosurgical evaluation. Some patients still use the ED to get continued care of their condition despite having access to their primary care physician. Better communication, social worker coordination, and prompt follow-up appointments at the neurosurgical outpatient clinic may reduce return visits.

Factors associated with a high-risk return visit to the emergency department: a case-crossover study

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Although factors related to a return emergency department (ED) visit have been reported, few studies have examined 'high-risk' return ED visits with serious adverse outcomes. Understanding factors associated with high-risk return ED visits may help with early recognition and prevention of these catastrophic events.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to (1) estimate the incidence of high-risk return ED visits, and (2) to investigate time-varying factors associated with these revisits.

DESIGN

Case-crossover study.

SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

We used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center. We retrieved data from 651 815 ED visits over a 6-year period. Patient demographics and computerized triage information were extracted.

OUTCOME MEASURE AND ANALYSIS

A high-risk return ED visit was defined as a revisit within 72 h of the index visit with ICU admission, receiving emergency surgery, or with in-hospital cardiac arrest during the return ED visit. Time-varying factors associated with a return visit were identified.

MAIN RESULTS

There were 440 281 adult index visits, of which 19 675 (4.5%) return visits occurred within 72 h. Of them, 417 (0.1%) were high-risk revisits. Multivariable analysis showed that time-varying factors associated with an increased risk of high-risk revisits included the following: arrival by ambulance, dyspnea, or chest pain on ED presentation, triage level 1 or 2, acute change in levels of consciousness, tachycardia (>90/min), and high fever (>39°C).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a relatively small fraction of discharges (0.1%) developed serious adverse events during the return ED visits. We identified symptom-based and vital sign-based warning signs that may be used for patient self-monitoring at home, as well as new-onset signs during the return visit to alert healthcare providers for timely management of these high-risk revisits.

Inpatient Outcomes Following a Return Visit to the Emergency Department: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Introduction

Emergency department (ED) revisits are traditionally used to measure potential lapses in emergency care. However, recent studies on in-hospital outcomes following ED revisits have begun to challenge this notion. We aimed to examine inpatient outcomes and resource use among patients who were hospitalized following a return visit to the ED using a national database.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. One-third of ED visits from 2012–2013 were randomly selected and their subsequent hospitalizations included. We analyzed the inpatient outcomes (mortality and intensive care unit [ICU] admission) and resource use (length of stay [LOS] and costs). Comparisons were made between patients who were hospitalized after a return visit to the ED and those who were hospitalized during the index ED visit.

Results

Of the 3,019,416 index ED visits, 477,326 patients (16%) were directly admitted to the hospital. Among the 2,504,972 patients who were discharged during the index ED visit, 229,059 (9.1%) returned to the ED within three days. Of them, 37,118 (16%) were hospitalized. In multivariable analyses, the inpatient mortality rates and hospital LOS were similar between the two groups. Compared with the direct-admission group, the return-admission group had a lower ICU admission rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72–0.84), and lower costs (adjusted difference, −5,198 New Taiwan dollars, 95% CI, −6,224 to −4,172).

Conclusion

Patients who were hospitalized after a return visit to the ED had a lower ICU admission rate and lower costs, compared to those who were directly admitted. Our findings suggest that ED revisits do not necessarily translate to poor initial care and that subsequent inpatient outcomes should also be considered for better assessment.

Factors for return to emergency department and hospitalization in elderly urinary tract infection patients

BACKGROUND

Appropriate decision of emergency department (ED) disposition is essential for improving the outcome of elderly urinary tract infection (UTI) patients. However, studies on early return visit (ERV) to the ED in elderly UTI patients are limited. Therefore, we aimed to identify factors for ERV and hospitalization after return visit (HRV) in this population.

METHODS

Elderly patients discharged from the ED with International Classification of diseases 10th Revision codes of UTI were selected from the registry for evaluation of ED revisit in 6 urban teaching hospitals. Retrospective data were extracted from the electronic medical records and ERV and hospitalization to scheduled revisit (SRV) were compared.

RESULT

Among a total of 419 patients found in the study period, 45 were ERV patients and 24 were HRV patients. Absence of UTI-specific symptoms (odds ratio [OR] 2.789; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.368-5.687; P = 0.005), C-reactive protein (CRP) levels >30 mg/L (OR 2.436; 95% CI 1.017-3.9; P = 0.024), and body temperature ≥ 38 °C (OR 1.992; 95% CI 1.017-3.9; P = 0.044) were independent risk factors for ERV, and absence of UTI-specific symptoms (OR 3.832; 95% CI 1.455-10.088; P = 0.007), CRP levels >30 mg/L (OR 3.224; 95% CI 1.235-8.419; P = 0.017), and systolic blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg (OR 3.795;95% CI 1.156-12.462; P = 0.028) were independent risk factors for HRV. However, there was no significant difference in empirical antibiotic resistance in ERV and HRV patients, compared to SRV patients.

CONCLUSION

The independent risk factors of ERV and HRV should be considered for ED disposition in elderly UTI patients; the resistance to empirical antibiotics was not found to affect ERV or HRV within 3 days.

A clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department: A prospective multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND

To develop a clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study in five European EDs (the TRIAGE study), including consecutive children aged <16 years who were discharged following their initial ED visit ('index' visit), in 2012-2015. Standardised data on patient characteristics, Manchester Triage System urgency classification, vital signs, clinical interventions and procedures were collected. The outcome measure was serious illness defined as hospital admission or PICU admission or death in ED after an unplanned revisit within 7 days of the index visit. Prediction models were developed using multivariable logistic regression using characteristics of the index visit to predict the likelihood of a revisit with a serious illness. The clinical model included day and time of presentation, season, age, gender, presenting problem, triage urgency, and vital signs. An extended model added laboratory investigations, imaging, and intravenous medications. Cross validation between the five sites was performed, and discrimination and calibration were assessed using random effects models. A digital calculator was constructed for clinical implementation. 7,891 children out of 98,561 children had a revisit to the ED (8.0%), of whom 1,026 children (1.0%) returned to the ED with a serious illness. Rates of revisits with serious illness varied between the hospitals (range 0.7-2.2%). The clinical model had a summary Area under the operating curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.74) and summary calibration slope of 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-0.99). 4,433 children (5%) had a risk of > = 3%, which was useful for ruling in a revisit with serious illness, with positive likelihood ratio 4.41 (95% CI 3.87-5.01) and specificity 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.96). 37,546 (39%) had a risk <0.5%, which was useful for ruling out a revisit with serious illness (negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35), sensitivity 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.90)). The extended model had an improved summary AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) and summary calibration slope of 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.97). As study limitations, variables on ethnicity and social deprivation could not be included, and only return visits to the original hospital and not to those of surrounding hospitals were recorded.

CONCLUSION

We developed a prediction model and a digital calculator which can aid physicians identifying those children at highest and lowest risks for developing a serious illness after initial discharge from the ED, allowing for more targeted safety netting advice and follow-up.

Reasons and Risk Factors for Emergency Department Visits After Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Analysis of 1.3 Million Patients

BACKGROUND

Well-powered studies investigating the relationship of emergency department (ED) visits and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are limited. Therefore, the specific aims of this study were to: 1) compare patient demographics of patients who did and did not have an ED visit; and for the visits, identified: 2) leading reasons; and 3) risk factors for ED visits (prearthroplasty/postarthroplasty).

METHODS

Patients undergoing primary TKA who had an ED visit within 90 days after their index procedure were identified from a nationwide database. The query yielded 1,364,655 patients who did (n = 5689) and did not have (n = 1,358,966) an ED visit. Baseline demographics such as age, sex, and comorbidity prevalence between the two cohorts; reasons for ED visits; and prearthroplasty and postarthroplasty risk factors were analyzed. Odds ratios (ORs) of ED visits were assessed using multivariate binomial logistic regression analyses. A P-value less than 0.001 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Patients who did and did not have ED visits differed with respect to age (P < .0001) and mean Elixhauser Comorbidity Index scores (9 vs 6, P < .0001). Musculoskeletal etiologies were the most common reason for ED visits. Hypertension was the greatest contributor to ED visits prearthroplasty and postarthroplasty. Comorbid conditions associated with ED visits postarthroplasty included peripheral vascular disease (OR: 1.61, P < .0001), coagulopathy (OR: 1.58, P < .0001), and rheumatoid arthritis (OR: 1.56, P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

By identifying demographic patterns of patients, reasons, and risk factors, the information found from this study can help identify targets for quality improvement to potentially reduce the incidence of ED visits after primary TKA.

Monotherapy Anticoagulation to Expedite Home Treatment of Patients Diagnosed With Venous Thromboembolism in the Emergency Department: A Pragmatic Effectiveness Trial

BACKGROUND

The objective was to test if low-risk emergency department patients with vitamin K antagonist (venous thromboembolism [VTE]; including venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism [PE]) can be safely and effectively treated at home with direct acting oral (monotherapy) anticoagulation in a large-scale, real-world pragmatic effectiveness trial.

METHODS

This was a single-arm trial, conducted from 2016 to 2019 in accordance with the Standards for Reporting Implementation Studies guideline in 33 emergency departments in the United States. Participants had newly diagnosed VTE with low risk of death based upon either the modified Hestia criteria, or physician judgment plus the simplified PE severity index score of zero, together with nonhigh bleeding risk were eligible. Patients had to be discharged within 24 hours of triage and treated with either apixaban or rivaroxaban. Effectiveness was defined by the primary efficacy and safety outcomes, image-proven recurrent VTE and bleeding requiring hospitalization >24 hours, respectively, with an upper limit of the 95% CI for the 30-day frequency of VTE recurrence below 2.0% for both outcomes.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1421 patients with complete outcomes data, including 903 with venous thrombosis and 518 with PE. The recurrent VTE requiring hospitalization occurred in 14/1421 (1.0% [95% CI, 0.5%-1.7%]), and bleeding requiring hospitalization occurred in 12/1421 (0.8% [0.4%-1.5%). The rate of severe bleeding using International Society for Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria was 2/1421 (0.1% [0%-0.5%]). No patient died, and serious adverse events occurred in 2.5% of venous thrombosis patients and 2.3% of patients with PE. Medication nonadherence was reported by patients in 8.0% (6.6%-9.5%) and was associated with a risk ratio of 6.0 (2.3-15.2) for VTE recurrence. Among all patients diagnosed with VTE in the emergency department during the period of study, 18% of venous thrombosis patients and 10% of patients with PE were enrolled.

CONCLUSIONS

Monotherapy treatment of low-risk patients with venous thrombosis or PE in the emergency department setting produced a low rate of bleeding and VTE recurrence, but may be underused. Patients with venous thrombosis and PE should undergo risk-stratification before home treatment. Improved patient adherence may reduce rate of recurrent VTE. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03404635.

Outcomes for Patients with Urinary Tract Infection After an Initial Intravenous Antibiotics Dose Before Emergency Department Discharge

INTRODUCTION

To investigate the effect of single-dose intravenous antibiotics before emergency department (ED) discharge on the outcomes of patients with urinary tract infections (UTIs).

METHODS

This is a retrospective study conducted at the EDs of three medical centers. Patients aged over 18 years who presented to the ED with UTI and were discharged without admission between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2017 were evaluated. The study group received a single dose of effective intravenous antibiotics on the basis of urine culture during the index ED visit following oral antibiotics, while the comparison group received oral antibiotics only. The primary outcomes were ED revisit within 72 h and admission following the return visit.

RESULTS

A total of 8168 patients were included. Of these, 20.9% received intravenous antibiotics before ED discharge. Patients who received effective intravenous antibiotics before ED discharge were associated with less than 72-h ED revisit (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.791, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.640-0.979]), but not decreased admission following the return visit (adjusted OR 0.921, 95% CI [0.731-1.153]). In subgroup analysis, parenteral antibiotic use during the index ED visit was associated with decreased admission following ED revisit in patients who presented with fever (adjusted OR 0.605; 95% CI 0.443-0.932).

CONCLUSION

For patients with UTI and clinically well to be discharged from the ED, a single dose of effective intravenous antibiotics before ED discharge was associated with decreased 72-h ED revisit. In patients with febrile UTI, initial intravenous antibiotics were associated with decreased revisit leading to admissions.

Comparing Pediatric Gastroenteritis Emergency Department Care in Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND

Between-country variation in health care resource use and its impact on outcomes in acute care settings have been challenging to disentangle from illness severity by using administrative data.

METHODS

We conducted a preplanned analysis employing patient-level emergency department (ED) data from children enrolled in 2 previously conducted clinical trials. Participants aged 3 to <48 months with <72 hours of gastroenteritis were recruited in pediatric EDs in the United States (N = 10 sites; 588 participants) and Canada (N = 6 sites; 827 participants). The primary outcome was an unscheduled health care provider visit within 7 days; the secondary outcomes were intravenous fluid administration and hospitalization at or within 7 days of the index visit.

RESULTS

In adjusted analysis, unscheduled revisits within 7 days did not differ (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50 to 1.02). At the index ED visit, although participants in Canada were assessed as being more dehydrated, intravenous fluids were administered more frequently in the United States (aOR: 4.6; 95% CI: 2.9 to 7.1). Intravenous fluid administration rates did not differ after enrollment (aOR: 1.4; 95% CI: 0.7 to 2.8; US cohort with Canadian as referent). Overall, intravenous rehydration was higher in the United States (aOR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.5 to 5.7). Although hospitalization rates during the 7 days after enrollment (aOR: 1.1; 95% CI: 0.4 to 2.6) did not differ, hospitalization at the index visit was more common in the United States (3.9% vs 2.3%; aOR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.6 to 6.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Among children with gastroenteritis and similar disease severity, revisit rates were similar in our 2 study cohorts, despite lower rates of intravenous rehydration and hospitalization in Canadian-based EDs.

Predictors and outcomes of patients that return unplanned to the Emergency Department and require critical care admission: A multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence, characteristics (including timeframe) and predictors of patients discharged from the Emergency Department (ED) that later return and require admission.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study examining all return visits to three EDs in Sydney, Australia, over a 12-month period. Patients returning within 28 days from ED discharge with the same or similar complaint were classified as a return visit to ensure capture of all return visits. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyse the data and logistic regression was performed to predict factors associated with return visits with general admission, and return visits admitted to critical care.

RESULTS

There were 1,798 (30%) return visits which resulted in admission, mostly to a non-critical care area (1,679, 93%). The current NSW 48 -h time frame used to define a return visit in NSW captured half of all admitted returns (49.5%) and just over half (59.2%) of critical care admissions. Variables associated with an admission to critical care were age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01, 1.03), initial presentation (index visit) made to a lower level ED (OR 3.76 95% CI 2.06, 6.86), Triage Category 2 (OR 3.67 95% CI 2.04, 6.60) and a cardiac diagnosis (OR 5.76, 95% CI 3.01, 11.01). This model had adequate discriminant ability with AUROC = 0.825.

CONCLUSION

A small number of return visits result in admission, especially to critical care. These patients are at risk of poor outcomes. As such, clinicians should have increased index of suspicion for patients who return that are older, present with cardiac problems, or have previously presented to a lower level ED. Revision of the current timeframe that defines a return visit ought to be considered by policy makers to improve the accuracy of this widely used key performance indicator.

Qualitative evaluation of a mandatory provincial programme auditing emergency department return visits

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this qualitative study was to evaluate the perceived impact and value of the Return Visit Quality Programme (RVQP), a mandatory province-wide emergency department audit programme.

DESIGN

We employed an interpretive descriptive qualitative approach with maximum variation sampling to ensure diverse representation across several geographical and institutional factors. RVQP programme leads were invited to participate in semistructured interviews and snowball sampling was used to reach non-lead physicians to capture the perspectives of those working within the programme.

SETTING

In Ontario's RVQP, participating emergency departments must audit their return visits resulting in admission to identify issues that can be addressed through quality improvement initiatives.

PARTICIPANTS

Between June and August 2018, we interviewed 32 participants (local programme leads and non-lead physicians) from 23 out of the 86 participating centres.

RESULTS

Participants' perceived impact and value of the programme was associated with the existence (or absence) and nature of the local quality improvement culture, the implementation approach of the programme within their emergency departments, and key aspects of the programme pertaining to medicolegal concerns and resource availability.

CONCLUSIONS

This study of an innovative, large-scale programme aimed at promoting continuous quality improvement in emergency departments showed that while its perceived impact has been meaningful, there are key structural and operational elements that support and hinder this aim. Healthcare leaders should consider these findings when looking to implement large-scale audit or quality improvement programmes.

In-Hospital Outcomes in Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit after a Return Visit to the Emergency Department

Background: Intensive care unit (ICU) admission following a short-term emergency department (ED) revisit has been considered a particularly undesirable outcome among return-visit patients, although their in-hospital prognosis has not been discussed. We aimed to compare clinical outcomes between adult patients admitted to the ICU after unscheduled ED revisits and those admitted during index ED visits. Method: This retrospective study was conducted at two tertiary medical centers in Taiwan from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017. All adult non-trauma patients admitted to the ICU directly via the ED during the study period were included and divided into two comparison groups: patients admitted to the ICU during index ED visits and those admitted to the ICU during return ED visits. The outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality, mechanical ventilation (MV) support, profound shock, hospital length of stay (HLOS), and total medical cost. Results: Altogether, 12,075 patients with a mean (standard deviation) age of 64.6 (15.7) years were included. Among these, 5.3% were admitted to the ICU following a return ED visit within 14 days and 3.1% were admitted following a return ED visit within 7 days. After adjusting for confounding factors for multivariate regression analysis, ICU admission following an ED revisit within 14 days was not associated with an increased mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89 to 1.32), MV support (aOR: 1.06, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.26), profound shock (aOR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.18), prolonged HLOS (difference: 0.04 days, 95% CI: −1.02 to 1.09), and increased total medical cost (difference: USD 361, 95% CI: −303 to 1025). Similar results were observed after the regression analysis in patients that had a 7-day return visit. Conclusion: ICU admission following a return ED visit was not associated with major in-hospital outcomes including mortality, MV support, shock, increased HLOS, or medical cost. Although ICU admissions following ED revisits are considered serious adverse events, they may not indicate poor prognosis in ED practice.

Elevated Heart Rate and Risk of Revisit With Admission in Pediatric Emergency Patients

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify emergency department (ED) heart rate (HR) values that identify children at elevated risk of ED revisit with admission.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients 0 to 18 years old discharged from a tertiary-care pediatric ED from January 2013 to December 2014. We created percentile curves for the last recorded HR for age using data from calendar year 2013 and used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to characterize the performance of the percentiles for predicting ED revisit with admission within 72 hours. In a held-out validation data set (calendar year 2014 data), we evaluated test characteristics of last-recorded HR-for-age cut points identified as promising on the ROC curves, as well as those identifying the highest 5% and 1% of last recorded HRs for age.

RESULTS

We evaluated 183,433 eligible ED visits. Last recorded HR for age had poor discrimination for predicting revisit with admission (area under the curve, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.63). No promising cut points were identified on the ROC curves. Cut points identifying the highest 5% and 1% of last recorded HRs for age showed low sensitivity (10.1% and 2.5%) with numbers needed to evaluate of 62 and 50, respectively, to potentially prevent 1 revisit with admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Last recorded ED HR discriminates poorly between children who are and are not at risk of revisit with admission in a pediatric ED. The use of single-parameter HR in isolation as an automated trigger for mandatory reevaluation prior to discharge may not improve revisit outcomes.

Association Between Patient Activation and Health Care Utilization After Thoracic and Abdominal Surgery

Importance

Increased patient activation (PA) (ie, knowledge, skills, motivation, confidence to participate in care) may result in improved outcomes, especially in surgical settings.

Objective

To estimate the extent to which PA is associated with 30-day postdischarge unplanned health care utilization after major thoracic or abdominal surgery.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was performed at 2 centers of a tertiary care hospital network between October 2017 and January 2019. Adult patients undergoing thoracic or abdominal surgery were included. Of 880 patients assessed for eligibility, 692 were deemed eligible, of whom 34 declined to participate, 1 withdrew consent, and 4 were excluded after consent.

Exposures

Patient activation was measured immediately after surgery during the initial admission using the Patient Activation Measure (score range, 0-100). Patients were dichotomized into low and high PA groups using previously described thresholds (Patient Activation Measure score, ≤55.1).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was unplanned 30-day postdischarge health care utilization (composite including emergency department and outpatient clinic visits and/or hospital readmission). Secondary outcomes were length of stay, 30-day emergency department visits, 30-day readmissions, and postoperative complications.

Results

A total of 653 patients admitted for thoracic, general, colorectal, and gynecologic surgery were included in the study (mean [SD] age, 58 [15] years; 369 women [56%]; 366 [56%] had minimally invasive surgery; 52 [8%] had emergency surgery), of which 152 (23%) had a low level of PA. Baseline characteristics were similar between patients with low- and high-level PA. Low PA was associated with unplanned health care utilization (odds ratio [OR], 3.15; 95% CI, 2.05-4.86; P < .001), emergency department visits (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.02-2.64; P = .04), complications (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.11-2.41; P = .01), and length of stay (adjusted mean difference, 1.19 days; 95% CI, 0.06-2.33; P = .04). Low PA was not associated with a higher risk of readmission (adjusted OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.56-1.93; P = .90).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, low level of PA was associated with postdischarge unplanned health care use, hospital stay, and complications after major surgery. Identification of patients with low activation may allow the implementation of interventions to improve health care knowledge and support self-management postdischarge.

The Emergency Department Trigger Tool: Validation and Testing to Optimize Yield

OBJECTIVE

Recognized as a premier approach for adverse event (AE) detection, trigger tools have been developed for multiple clinical settings outside the emergency department (ED). We recently derived and tested an ED trigger tool (EDTT) with enhanced features for high-yield detection of harm, consisting of 30 triggers associated with AEs. In this study, we validate the EDTT in an independent sample and compare record selection approaches to optimize yield for quality improvement.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study using data from 13 months of visits to an urban, academic ED by patients aged ≥ 18 years (92,859 records). We conducted standard two-tiered trigger tool reviews on an independent validation sample of 3,724 records with at least one of the 30 triggers found associated with AEs in our previous derivation sample (N = 1,786). We also tested three new candidate triggers and reviewed 72 records with no triggers for comparison purposes. We compare derivation and validation samples on: 1) triggers showing persistent associations with AEs, 2) AE yield (AEs detected/records reviewed), and 3) representativeness of AE types detected. We use bivariate associations of triggers with AEs as the basis for trigger selection. We then use multivariable modeling in the combined derivation and validation samples to determine AE risk scores using trigger weights. This allows us to predict occurrence of AEs and derive population prevalence estimates. Finally, we compare yield for detection of AEs under three record selection strategies (random selection, trigger counts, weighted trigger counts).

RESULTS

Twenty-four of the 30 triggers were confirmed to be associated with AEs on bivariate testing. Three previously marginal triggers and two of three new candidate triggers were also found to be associated with AEs. The presence of any of these 29 triggers was associated with an AE rate of 10% in our selected sample (compared to 1.1% for none, p < 0.001). The risk of an AE increased with number of triggers. Combining data from both phases, we identified 461 AEs in 429 unique visits in 5,582 records reviewed. Our multivariable model (which emphasized parsimony) retained 12 triggers with a ROC AUC of 82% in both samples. Selecting records for review based on number of triggers improves yield to 14% for 4+ triggers (top 10% of visits) and to 28% for 8+ (top 1%). A weighted trigger count has corresponding yields of 18 and 38%. The method for selecting records for review did not appear to affect event-type representativeness, with similar distributions of event types and severities detected.

CONCLUSIONS

In this single-site study of the EDTT we observed high levels of validity in trigger selection, yield, and representativeness of AEs, with yields that are superior to estimates for traditional approaches to AE detection. Record selection using weighted triggers outperforms a trigger count threshold approach and far outperforms random sampling from records with at least one trigger. The EDTT is a promising efficient and high-yield approach for detecting all-cause harm to guide quality improvement efforts in the ED.

Pediatric Emergency Department Return Visits: An Innovative and Systematic Approach to Promote Quality Improvement and Patient Safety

OBJECTIVES

Emergency department (ED) return visits (RVs) leading to hospital admission are a quality measure that can potentially signal gaps in patient care. Systematic capture and investigation of RVs at a case level can provide an understanding of patient- and visit-level factors associated with RVs, and thus inform system-level quality improvement (QI) opportunities. Our objective is to describe the development of a database that enables tracking and analyzing of all pediatric ED RVs, to understand recurring themes and inform QI initiatives.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted at a quaternary care children's hospital during a 3-year period (December 2013 to November 2016). All 72-hour RVs were audited for patient- and visit-level variables and clinicians completed root-cause analyses of their RVs. Using descriptive statistics, variables associated with RVs and system-level quality themes were identified.

RESULTS

Of 214,047 ED patient visits, 1546 (0.7%) patients returned within 72 hours and were admitted. The RV patients had higher acuity scores on both visits compared with all ED visits, and the RV group had a higher proportion of children younger than 12 months than the overall ED visit group (25.0% vs 16.2%). The underlying cause for the majority of RVs was determined to be natural disease progression (63%), whereas 9% were callbacks for positive blood cultures or discrepant radiology results, and 6% were categorized as misdiagnoses. Several successful QI initiatives were completed as a result of the program.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic monitoring and investigation of all ED RVs provides an innovative and effective approach to seeking provider- and system-level improvement opportunities.

Improving Quality of Care Through a Mandatory Provincial Audit Program: Ontario's Emergency Department Return Visit Quality Program

The Emergency Department Return Visit Quality Program was launched in Ontario, Canada, to promote a culture of quality. It mandates the province's largest-volume emergency departments (EDs) to audit charts of patients who had a return visit leading to hospital admission, including some of their 72-hour all-cause return visits with admission and all of their 7-day ones with sentinel diagnoses (ie, acute myocardial infarction, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and pediatric sepsis), and submit their findings to a governmental agency. This provides an opportunity to identify possible adverse events and quality issues, which hospitals can then address through quality improvement initiatives. A group of emergency physicians with quality improvement expertise analyzed the submitted audits and accompanying narrative templates, using a general inductive approach to develop a novel classification of recurrent quality themes. Since the Return Visit Quality Program launched in 2016, 125,698 return visits with admission have been identified, representing 0.93% of the 86 participating EDs' 13,559,664 visits. Overall, participating hospitals have conducted 12,852 detailed chart audits, uncovering 3,010 (23.4%) adverse events/quality issues and undertaking hundreds of quality improvement provincewide projects as a result. The inductive analysis revealed 11 recurrent themes, classified into 3 groupings: patient characteristics (ie, patient risk profile and elder care), ED team actions or processes (ie, physician cognitive lapses, documentation, handover/communication between providers, radiology, vital signs, and high-risk medications or medication interactions), and health care system issues (ie, discharge planning/community follow-up, left against medical advice/left without being seen, and imaging/testing availability). The Return Visit Quality Program is the largest mandatory audit program for EDs and provides a novel approach to identify local adverse events/quality issues to target for improved patient safety and quality of care. It provides a blueprint for health system leaders to enable clinicians to develop an approach to organizational quality, as well as for teams to construct an audit system that yields defined issues amenable to improvement.

Emergency department medication dispensing reduces return visits and admissions

OBJECTIVES

Return visits to the emergency department (ED) and subsequent readmissions are common for patients who are unable to fill their prescriptions. We sought to determine if dispensing medications to patients in an ED was a cost-effective way to decrease return ED visits and hospital admissions for skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs).

METHODS

A retrospective review of ED visits for SSTIs, during the 24 weeks before and after the implementation of a medication dispensing program, was conducted. Charts were analyzed for both ED return visits and hospital admissions within 7 days and 30 days of the initial ED visit. Return visits were further reviewed to determine if the clinical conditions on subsequent visits were related to the initial ED presentation. A cost analysis comparing the cost of treatment to cost savings for return visits was also performed.

RESULTS

Before the implementation of the medication dispensing program, the return rate in 7 days for the same condition was 9.1% and the rate of admission was 2.8%. The return rate for the same condition in 8-30 days was 2.1% and the rate of admission was 1.0%. After the implementation of the medication dispensing program, the return rate for the same condition in 7 days was 8.0%, and the admission rate was 1.7%. The return rate for the same condition in 8-30 days was 0.8%, and the admission rate was 0%. The total cost of dispensed medications was $4050, while total cost savings were estimated to be $95,477.

CONCLUSION

A medication dispensing program in the ED led to a reduction in return visits and admissions for SSTIs at both 7 days and 30 days. For a cost of only $4050, an estimated total of $95,477 was saved. A medication dispensing program is a cost-effective way to reduce return visits to the ED and subsequent admissions for certain conditions.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Analyze Patient Returns to the Emergency Department

The study of the quality of hospital emergency services is based on analyzing a set of indicators such as the average time of first medical attention, the average time spent in the emergency department, degree of completion of the medical report and others. In this paper, an analysis is presented of one of the quality indicators: the rate of return of patients to the emergency service less than 72 h from their discharge. The objective of the analysis was to know the variables that influence the rate of return and which prediction model is the best. In order to do this, the data of the activity of the emergency service of a hospital of a reference population of 290,000 inhabitants were analyzed, and prediction models were created for the binary objective variable (rate of return to emergencies) using the logistic regression techniques, neural networks, random forest, gradient boosting and assembly models. Each of the models was analyzed and the result shows that the best model is achieved through a neural network with activation function tanh, algorithm levmar and three nodes in the hidden layer. This model obtains the lowest mean squared error (MSE) and the best area under the curve (AUC) with respect to the rest of the models used.

Quality Assurance in the Emergency Department

Quality assurance (QA) of care in the emergency department encompasses activities ensuring that the care provided meets applicable standards. Health care delivery is complex and many factors affect quality of care. Thus, quantification of health care quality is challenging, especially with regard to attribution of outcomes to various factors contributing to such care. A critical component of the process of QA is determination of quality health care and the concept of (unjustified) deviation from the reference applicable standard of care.

Comparison of admission rates among patients treated by male and female emergency physicians: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

No study to date has looked at the gender of emergency medicine (EM) physicians in the United States in relation to admission rates. This study seeks to investigate admission rates of adult patients treated by female vs male EM physicians, to identify whether a practice pattern bias exists.

METHODS

This was a multicenter retrospective study of four community hospitals.

POPULATION

All patient encounters between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017.

OUTCOME

We compared multiple benchmarks, including admission rates, patient acuity, length of stay, return visits, patient age, and years of practice using descriptive statistics and Pearson Correlation Coefficients.

RESULTS

171,762 encounters by 71 EM physicians; 29 females, 42 males. Average admission rates: female 30.1%, male 28.0%, p = .188. Average encounters: female 2456, male 2394, p = 0.77. Acuity: female 149.3, male 146.9, p = .227. Average length of stay (minutes): female 294.4, male 277.4, p = .137. Average patient age: female 50.9, male 50.2, p = .457. Median time of encounter: female 12.8, male 12.7, p = .964. Years of practice: female 16.2, male 19.1, p = .274. Average return visits per one thousand: female 8.5, male 8.5, p = .864. Secondary analysis of Pearson Correlation Coefficient of Significance; admission rate and length of stay: female 0.53, p = .0026; male 0.76, p < .0001. Admission rate and acuity: female 0.56, p = .0012; male 0.76, p < .0001. Admission rate and patient age: female 0.54, p = 0.0018; male 0.50, p = 0.0003.

CONCLUSION

No statistically significant difference exists between the admission rates of male and female emergency medicine physicians. The admission rate in both groups had the highest correlation with patients' age, acuity, and length of stay.

The rate of short-term revisits after diagnosis of non-specific abdominal pain is similar for surgeons and emergency physicians - results from a single tertiary hospital emergency department

Background

Acute abdominal pain can be a diagnostic challenge even for experienced surgeons. Delayed diagnosis can lead to higher morbidity, mortality and increased costs. While readmission rate has been used to evaluate quality of surgical care, studies addressing the issue in emergency departments (ED) are rare. The role of emergency physicians in the care of patients with abdominal pain is increasing in many European countries, including Finland. It is not known whether this has an effect on the number of readmissions.

Here we evaluate whether the increasing role of emergency physicians in examining patients presenting with abdominal pain has affected the rate of short-term revisits among patients with non-specific abdominal pain (NSAP).

Methods

We identified consecutive ED patients receiving a diagnosis of NSAP 1.1. 2015–31.12.2016 in the ED of Tampere University Hospital. Those revisiting the ED within 48 h were selected for further analysis. Data were obtained from electronic medical records. We compared the outcomes of those initially examined by surgeons and by emergency physicians.

Results

During the study period, 173,630 patients visited our ED, of whom 6.1% (n = 10,609) were discharged with a diagnosis of NSAP. Only 3.0% of patients revisited the ED, 0.7% required hospitalization and 0.06% immediate surgery. The short-term revisit rates among those originally examined by surgeons and by emergency physicians were similar, 2.8 and 3.2% respectively (p = 0.193).

Conclusions

The rate of short-term revisits in patients with NSAP was altogether low. The increasing role of emergency physicians in the care of acute abdominal patients did not affect the revisit rate.

Influence of Overcrowding in the Emergency Department on Return Visit within 72 Hours

This study was conducted to determine whether overcrowding in the emergency department (ED) affects the occurrence of a return visit (RV) within 72 h. The crowding indicator of index visit was the average number of total patients, patients under observation, and boarding patients during the first 1 and 4 h from ED arrival time and the last 1 h before ED departure. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine whether each indicator affects the occurrence of RV and post-RV admission. Of the 87,360 discharged patients, 3743 (4.3%) returned to the ED within 72 h. Of the crowding indicators pertaining to total patients, the last 1 h significantly affected decrease in RV (p = 0.0046). Boarding patients were found to increase RV occurrence during the first 1 h (p = 0.0146) and 4 h (p = 0.0326). Crowding indicators that increased the likelihood of admission post-RV were total number of patients during the first 1 h (p = 0.0166) and 4 h (p = 0.0335) and evaluating patients during the first 1 h (p = 0.0059). Overcrowding in the ED increased the incidence of RV and likelihood of post-RV admission. However, overcrowding at the time of ED departure was related to reduced RV.

Is mortality readmissions bias a concern for readmission rates under the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the exclusion of patients who die from adjusted 30-day readmission rates influences readmission rate measures and penalties under the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP).

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

100% Medicare fee-for-service claims over the period July 1, 2012, until June 30, 2015.

STUDY DESIGN

We examine the 30-day readmission risk across the three conditions targeted by the HRRP: acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF), and pneumonia. Using logistic regression, we estimate the readmission risk for three samples of patients: those who survived the 30-day period after their index admission, those who died over the 30-day period, and all patients who were admitted to see how they differ.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We identified and extracted data for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries admitted with primary diagnoses of AMI (N = 497 931), CHF (N = 1 047 552), and pneumonia (N = 850 552).

RESULTS

The estimated hospital readmission rates for the survived and nonsurvived patients differed by 5%-8%, on average. Incorporating these estimates into overall readmission risk for all admitted patients changes the likely penalty status for 9% of hospitals. However, this change is randomly distributed across hospitals and is not concentrated amongst any one type of hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

Not accounting for variations in mortality may result in inappropriate penalties for some hospitals. However, the effect of this bias is low due to low mortality rates amongst incentivized conditions and appears to be randomly distributed across hospital types.

Revisits, readmissions, and outcomes for pediatric traumatic brain injury in California, 2005-2014

Long-term outcomes related to emergency department revisit, hospital readmission, and all-cause mortality, have not been well characterized across the spectrum of pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI). We evaluated emergency department visit outcomes up to 1 year after pediatric TBI, in comparison to a referent group of trauma patients without TBI. We performed a longitudinal, retrospective study of all pediatric trauma patients who presented to emergency departments and hospitals in California from 2005 to 2014. We compared emergency department visits, dispositions, revisits, readmissions, and mortality in pediatric trauma patients with a TBI diagnosis to those without TBI (Other Trauma patients). We identified 208,222 pediatric patients with an index diagnosis of TBI and 1,314,064 patients with an index diagnosis of Other Trauma. Population growth adjusted TBI visits increased by 5.6% while those for Other Trauma decreased by 40.7%. The majority of patients were discharged from the emergency department on their first visit (93.2% for traumatic brain injury vs. 96.5% for Other Trauma). A greater proportion of TBI patients revisited the emergency department (33.4% vs. 3.0%) or were readmitted to the hospital (0.9% vs. 0.04%) at least once within a year of discharge. The health burden within a year after a pediatric TBI visit is considerable and is greater than that of non-TBI trauma. These data suggest that outpatient strategies to monitor for short-term and longer-term sequelae after pediatric TBI are needed to improve patient outcomes, lessen the burden on families, and more appropriately allocate resources in the healthcare system.

Readmissions to General ICUs in a Geographic Area of Poland Are Seemingly Associated with Better Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Various factors can contribute to high mortality rates in intensive care units (ICUs). Here, we intended to define a population of patients readmitted to general ICUs in Poland and to identify independent predictors of ICU readmission.

METHODS

Data derived from adult ICU admissions from the Silesian region of Poland were analyzed. First-time ICU readmissions (≤30 days from ICU discharge after index admissions) were compared with first-time ICU admissions. Pre-admission and admission variables that independently influenced the need for ICU readmission were identified.

RESULTS

Among the 21,495 ICU admissions, 839 were first-time readmissions (3.9%). Patients readmitted to the ICU had lower mean APACHE II (21.2 ± 8.0 vs. 23.2 ± 8.8, p < 0.001) and TISS-28 scores (33.7 ± 7.4 vs. 35.2 ± 7.8, p < 0.001) in the initial 24 h following ICU admission, compared to first-time admissions. ICU readmissions were associated with lower mortality vs. first-time admissions (39.2% vs. 44.3%, p = 0.004). Independent predictors for ICU readmission included the admission from a surgical ward (among admission sources), chronic respiratory failure, cachexia, previous stroke, chronic neurological diseases (among co-morbidities), and multiple trauma or infection (among primary reasons for ICU admission).

CONCLUSIONS

High mortality associated with first-time ICU admissions is associated with a lower mortality rate during ICU readmissions.

MedManage: The development of a tool to assist medication reconciliation in a rural primary care clinic

BACKGROUND

Medication reconciliation is a critical step in the health care process to prevent hospital readmission, adverse drug events, and fall prevention. The purpose of the study was to pilot test a medication reconciliation process, MedManage, informed by the Medications at Transitions and Clinical Handoffs (MATCH) toolkit with nursing staff in a rural primary care clinic.

METHODS

The research team conducted 38 chart audits of high-risk patients, and preintervention and postintervention were conducted to assess changes in medications reported by patients. The intervention included a chart audit tool and medication reconciliation tool created by the interdisciplinary team, MedManage, were pilot tested in the clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

The Use of MedManage resulted in improvements in patient reporting of over-the-counter (82% of patients reported previously unrecorded OTCs), PRN medications (3% unreported), and herbal supplements/vitamins (28% reported previously unrecorded vitamins).

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

MedManage may be an effective tool to assist clinical nursing staff to attain a more complete and accurate medication list from patients and should be assessed more broadly across rural primary care clinics.

Mapping ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM Codes to Phecodes: Workflow Development and Initial Evaluation

BACKGROUND

The phecode system was built upon the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) for phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) using the electronic health record (EHR).

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this paper was to develop and perform an initial evaluation of maps from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) and the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes to phecodes.

METHODS

We mapped ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM codes to phecodes using a number of methods and resources, such as concept relationships and explicit mappings from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the Unified Medical Language System, Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics, Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine-Clinical Terms, and the National Library of Medicine. We assessed the coverage of the maps in two databases: Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) using ICD-10-CM and the UK Biobank (UKBB) using ICD-10. We assessed the fidelity of the ICD-10-CM map in comparison to the gold-standard ICD-9-CM phecode map by investigating phenotype reproducibility and conducting a PheWAS.

RESULTS

We mapped >75% of ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM codes to phecodes. Of the unique codes observed in the UKBB (ICD-10) and VUMC (ICD-10-CM) cohorts, >90% were mapped to phecodes. We observed 70-75% reproducibility for chronic diseases and <10% for an acute disease for phenotypes sourced from the ICD-10-CM phecode map. Using the ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM maps, we conducted a PheWAS with a Lipoprotein(a) genetic variant, rs10455872, which replicated two known genotype-phenotype associations with similar effect sizes: coronary atherosclerosis (ICD-9-CM: P<.001; odds ratio (OR) 1.60 [95% CI 1.43-1.80] vs ICD-10-CM: P<.001; OR 1.60 [95% CI 1.43-1.80]) and chronic ischemic heart disease (ICD-9-CM: P<.001; OR 1.56 [95% CI 1.35-1.79] vs ICD-10-CM: P<.001; OR 1.47 [95% CI 1.22-1.77]).

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduces the beta versions of ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM to phecode maps that enable researchers to leverage accumulated ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM data for PheWAS in the EHR.

The Emergency Department Trigger Tool: A Novel Approach to Screening for Quality and Safety Events

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Trigger tools improve surveillance for harm by focusing reviews on records with "triggers" whose presence increases the likelihood of an adverse event. We refine and automate a previously developed emergency department (ED) trigger tool and present record selection strategies to further optimize yield.

METHODS

We specified 97 triggers for extraction from our electronic medical record, identifying 76,894 ED visits with greater than or equal to 1 trigger. We reviewed 1,726 records with greater than or equal to 1 trigger, following a standard trigger tool review process. We validated query performance against manual review and evaluated individual triggers, retaining only those associated with adverse events in the ED. We explored 2 approaches to enhance record selection: on number of triggers present and using trigger weights derived with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression.

RESULTS

The automated query performed well compared with manual review (sensitivity >70% for 80 triggers; specificity >92% for all). Review yielded 374 adverse events (21.6 adverse events per 100 records). Thirty triggers were associated with risk of harm in the ED. An estimated 10.3% of records with greater than 1 of these triggers would include an adverse event in the ED. Selecting only records with greater than or equal to 4 or greater than or equal to 9 triggers improves yield to 17% and 34.8%, respectively, whereas use of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator trigger weighting enhances the yield to as high as 52%.

CONCLUSION

The ED trigger tool is a promising approach to improve yield, scope, and efficiency of review for all-cause harm in emergency medicine. Beginning with a broad set of candidate triggers, we validated a computerized query that eliminates the need for manual screening for triggers and identified a refined set of triggers associated with adverse events in the ED. Review efficiency can be further enhanced with enhanced record selection.

Predicting 72-hour and 9-day return to the emergency department using machine learning

OBJECTIVES

To predict 72-h and 9-day emergency department (ED) return by using gradient boosting on an expansive set of clinical variables from the electronic health record.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all adult discharges from a level 1 trauma center ED and a community hospital ED covering the period of March 2013 to July 2017. A total of 1500 variables were extracted for each visit, and samples split randomly into training, validation, and test sets (80%, 10%, and 10%). Gradient boosting models were fit on 3 selections of the data: administrative data (demographics, prior hospital usage, and comorbidity categories), data available at triage, and the full set of data available at discharge. A logistic regression (LR) model built on administrative data was used for baseline comparison. Finally, the top 20 most informative variables identified from the full gradient boosting models were used to build a reduced model for each outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 330 631 discharges were available for analysis, with 29 058 discharges (8.8%) resulting in 72-h return and 52 748 discharges (16.0%) resulting in 9-day return to either ED. LR models using administrative data yielded test AUCs of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.70) and 0.71(95% CI 0.70-0.72), while gradient boosting models using administrative data yielded test AUCs of 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.74) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.73-0.74) for 72-h and 9-day return, respectively. Gradient boosting models using variables available at triage yielded test AUCs of 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.76) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.75), while those using the full set of variables yielded test AUCs of 0.76 (95% CI 0.75-0.77) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.75-0.76). Reduced models using the top 20 variables yielded test AUCs of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.74).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Gradient boosting models leveraging clinical data are superior to LR models built on administrative data at predicting 72-h and 9-day returns.

Unscheduled return visits to the emergency department with ICU admission: A trigger tool for diagnostic error

BACKGROUND

It is believed that patients who return to the Emergency Department (ED) and require admission are thought to represent failures in diagnosis, treatment or discharge planning. Screening readmission rates or patients who return within 72 h have been used in ED Quality Assurance efforts. These metrics require significant effort in chart review and only rarely identify care deviations.

OBJECTIVE

This study was conducted to evaluate the yield of reviewing ED return visits that resulted in an ICU admission. This study was conducted to evaluate the yield of reviewing ED return visits that resulted in an ICU admission. We planned to assess if the return visits with ICU admission were associated with deviations in care, and secondarily, to understand the common causes of error in this group.

METHODS

Retrospective review of patients presenting to a university affiliated ED between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2015 and returned within 14 days requiring ICU admission.

RESULTS

From 1,106,606 ED visits, 511 patients returned within 14 days and were admitted to an ICU. 223 patients returned for a reason related to the index visit (43.6%). Of these related returns, 31 (13.9%) had a deviation in care on the index visit. When a standard diagnostic process of care framework was applied to these 31 cases, 47.3% represented failures in the initial diagnostic pathway.

CONCLUSION

Reviewing 14-day returns leading to ICU admission, while an uncommon event, has a higher yield in the understanding of quality issues involving diagnostic as well as systems errors.

Sociodemographic and health-related determinants for making repeated calls to a medical helpline: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To identify sociodemographic and health-related characteristics of callers' making repeated calls within 48 hours to a medical helpline, compared with those who only call once.

SETTING

In the Capital Region of Denmark people with acute, non-life-threatening illnesses or injuries are triaged through a single-tier medical helpline for acute, healthcare services.

PARTICIPANTS

People who called the medical helpline between 18 January and 9 February 2017 were invited to participate in the survey. During the period, 38 787 calls were handled and 12 902 agreed to participate. Calls were excluded because of the temporary civil registration number (n=78), the call was not made by the patient or a close relative (n=699), or survey responses were incomplete (n=19). Hence, the analysis included 12 106 calls, representing 11.131 callers' making single calls and 464 callers' making two or more calls within 48 hours. Callers' data (age, sex and caller identification) were collected from the medical helpline's electronic records. Data were enriched using the callers' self-rated health, self-evaluated degree of worry, and registry data on income, ethnicity and comorbidities. The OR for making repeated calls was calculated in a crude, sex-adjusted and age-adjusted analysis and in a mutually adjusted analysis.

RESULTS

The crude logistic regression analysis showed that age, self-rated health, self-evaluated degree of worry, income, ethnicity and comorbidities were significantly associated with making repeated calls. In the mutually adjusted analysis associations decreased, however, odds ratios remained significantly decreased for callers with a household income in the middle (OR=0.71;95% CI 0.54 to 0.92) or highest (OR=0.68;95% CI 0.48 to 0.96) quartiles, whereas immigrants had borderline significantly increased OR (OR=1.34;95% CI 0.96 to 1.86) for making repeated calls.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that income and ethnicity are potential determinants of callers' need to make additional calls within 48 hours to a medical helpline with triage function.