Which low urgent triaged febrile children are suitable for a fast track? An observational European study

BACKGROUND

The number of paediatric patients visiting the ED with non-urgent problems is increasing, leading to poor patient flow and ED crowding. Fast track aims to improve the efficiency of evaluation and discharge of low acuity patients. We aimed to identify which febrile children are suitable for a fast track based on presenting symptoms and management.

METHODS

This study is part of the Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe study, which is an observational study including routine data of febrile children <18 years attending 12 European EDs. We included febrile, low urgent children (those assigned a triage acuity of either 'standard' or 'non-urgent' using the Manchester Triage System) and defined children as suitable for fast track when they have minimal resource use and are discharged home. Presenting symptoms consisted of neurological (n=237), respiratory (n=8476), gastrointestinal (n=1953) and others (n=3473, reference group). Multivariable logistic regression analyses regarding presenting symptoms and management (laboratory blood testing, imaging and admission) were performed with adjustment for covariates: patient characteristics, referral status, previous medical care, previous antibiotic use, visiting hours and ED setting.

RESULTS

We included 14 139 children with a median age of 2.7 years (IQR 1.3-5.2). The majority had respiratory symptoms (60%), viral infections (50%) and consisted of self-referrals (69%). The neurological group received imaging more often (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.9) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.7). The respiratory group had fewer laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), were less frequently admitted (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), but received imaging more often (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0). Lastly, the gastrointestinal group had more laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 1.2. 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.6).

CONCLUSION

We determined that febrile children triaged as low urgent with respiratory symptoms were most suitable for a fast track. This study provides evidence for which children could be triaged to a fast track, potentially improving overall patient flow at the ED.

Adoption of C-reactive protein rapid tests for the management of acute childhood infections in hospitals in the Netherlands and England: a comparative health systems analysis

BACKGROUND

The adoption of C-reactive protein point-of-care tests (CRP POCTs) in hospitals varies across Europe. We aimed to understand the factors that contribute to different levels of adoption of CRP POCTs for the management of acute childhood infections in two countries.

METHODS

Comparative qualitative analysis of the implementation of CRP POCTs in the Netherlands and England. The study was informed by the non-adoption, abandonment, spread, scale-up, and sustainability (NASSS) framework. Data were collected through document analysis and qualitative interviews with stakeholders. Documents were identified by a scoping literature review, search of websites, and through the stakeholders. Stakeholders were sampled purposively initially, and then by snowballing. Data were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Forty-one documents resulted from the search and 46 interviews were conducted. Most hospital healthcare workers in the Netherlands were familiar with CRP POCTs as the tests were widely used and trusted in primary care. Moreover, although diagnostics were funded through similar Diagnosis Related Group reimbursement mechanisms in both countries, the actual funding for each hospital was more constrained in England. Compared to primary care, laboratory-based CRP tests were usually available in hospitals and their use was encouraged in both countries because they were cheaper. However, CRP POCTs were perceived as useful in some hospitals of the two countries in which the laboratory could not provide CRP measures 24/7 or within a short timeframe, and/or in emergency departments where expediting patient care was important.

CONCLUSIONS

CRP POCTs are more available in hospitals in the Netherlands because of the greater familiarity of Dutch healthcare workers with the tests which are widely used in primary care in their country and because there are more funding constraints in England. However, most hospitals in the Netherlands and England have not adopted CRP POCTs because the alternative CRP measurements from the hospital laboratory are available in a few hours and at a lower cost.

Children presenting with diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis to Emergency Departments during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and Ireland: an international retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the incidence of new onset paediatric diabetes mellitus, clinical characteristics and patterns of presentation to emergency departments (ED) during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to assess whether this increase was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DESIGN

Retrospective medical record review.

SETTING

Forty nine paediatric EDs across the UK and Ireland.

PATIENTS

All children aged 6 months to 16 years presenting to EDs with (1) new onset diabetes or (2) pre-existing diabetes with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), during the COVID-19 pandemic (1 March 2020-28 February 2021) and the preceding year (1 March 2019-28 February 2020).

RESULTS

There were increases in new onset diabetes (1015 to 1183, 17%), compared with background incidence of 3%-5% in the UK over the past 5 years. There were increases in children presenting with new onset diabetes in DKA (395 to 566, 43%), severe DKA (141 to 252, 79%) and admissions to intensive care (38 to 72, 89%). Increased severity was reflected in biochemical and physiological parameters and administration of fluid boluses. Time to presentation from symptom onset for children presenting with new onset diabetes and DKA were similar across both years; healthcare seeking delay did not appear to be the sole contributing factor to DKA during the pandemic. Patterns of presentation changed in the pandemic year and seasonal variation was lost. Children with pre-existing diabetes presented with fewer episodes of decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

There were increases in new onset diabetes in children and a higher risk of DKA in the first COVID pandemic year.

Emergency medical services utilisation among febrile children attending emergency departments across Europe: an observational multicentre study

Children constitute 6-10% of all patients attending the emergency department (ED) by emergency medical services (EMS). However, discordant EMS use in children occurs in 37-61% with fever as an important risk factor. We aimed to describe EMS utilisation among febrile children attending European EDs. This study is part of an observational multicentre study assessing management and outcome in febrile children up to 18 years (MOFICHE) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. Discordant EMS use was defined as the absence of markers of urgency including intermediate/high triage urgency, advanced diagnostics, treatment, and admission in children transferred by EMS. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between (1) EMS use and markers of urgency, and (2) patient characteristics and discordant EMS use after adjusting all analyses for the covariates age, gender, visiting hours, presenting symptoms, and ED setting. A total of 5464 (15%, range 0.1-42%) children attended the ED by EMS. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in the EMS group compared with the non-EMS group. Discordant EMS use occurred in 1601 children (29%, range 1-59%). Age and gender were not associated with discordant EMS use, whereas neurological symptoms were associated with less discordant EMS use (aOR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1-0.2), and attendance out of office hours was associated with more discordant EMS use (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.4-1.9). Settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED had more discordant EMS use (p < 0.05).  Conclusion: There is large practice variation in EMS use in febrile children attending European EDs. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in children in the EMS group. However, discordant EMS use occurred in 29%. Further research is needed on non-medical factors influencing discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe, so that pre-emptive strategies can be implemented. What is Known: •Children constitute around 6-10% of all patients attending the emergency department by emergency medical services. •Discordant EMS use occurs in 37-61% of all children, with fever as most common presenting symptom for discordant EMS use in children. What is New: •There is large practice variation in EMS use among febrile children across Europe with discordance EMS use occurring in 29% (range 1-59%), which was associated with attendance during out of office hours and with settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED. •Future research is needed focusing on non-medical factors (socioeconomic status, parental preferences and past experience, healthcare systems, referral pathways, out of hours services provision) that influence discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe.

Are children with prolonged fever at a higher risk for serious illness? A prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the characteristics and clinical outcomes of children with fever ≥5 days presenting to emergency departments (EDs).

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

12 European EDs.

PATIENTS

Consecutive febrile children <18 years between January 2017 and April 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

Children with fever ≥5 days and their risks for serious bacterial infection (SBI) were compared with children with fever <5 days, including diagnostic accuracy of non-specific symptoms, warning signs and C-reactive protein (CRP; mg/L).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SBI and other non-infectious serious illness.

RESULTS

3778/35 705 (10.6%) of febrile children had fever ≥5 days. Incidence of SBI in children with fever ≥5 days was higher than in those with fever <5 days (8.4% vs 5.7%). Triage urgency, life-saving interventions and intensive care admissions were similar for fever ≥5 days and <5 days. Several warning signs had good rule in value for SBI with specificities >0.90, but were observed infrequently (range: 0.4%-17%). Absence of warning signs was not sufficiently reliable to rule out SBI (sensitivity 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.95), negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.34 (0.22-0.54)). CRP <20 mg/L was useful for ruling out SBI (negative LR 0.16 (0.11-0.24)). There were 66 cases (1.7%) of non-infectious serious illnesses, including 21 cases of Kawasaki disease (0.6%), 28 inflammatory conditions (0.7%) and 4 malignancies.

CONCLUSION

Children with prolonged fever have a higher risk of SBI, warranting a careful clinical assessment and diagnostic workup. Warning signs of SBI occurred infrequently but, if present, increased the likelihood of SBI. Although rare, clinicians should consider important non-infectious causes of prolonged fever.

Immunoglobulin, glucocorticoid, or combination therapy for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: a propensity-weighted cohort study

Background

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a hyperinflammatory condition associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, has emerged as a serious illness in children worldwide. Immunoglobulin or glucocorticoids, or both, are currently recommended treatments.

Methods

The Best Available Treatment Study evaluated immunomodulatory treatments for MIS-C in an international observational cohort. Analysis of the first 614 patients was previously reported. In this propensity-weighted cohort study, clinical and outcome data from children with suspected or proven MIS-C were collected onto a web-based Research Electronic Data Capture database. After excluding neonates and incomplete or duplicate records, inverse probability weighting was used to compare primary treatments with intravenous immunoglobulin, intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, or glucocorticoids alone, using intravenous immunoglobulin as the reference treatment. Primary outcomes were a composite of inotropic or ventilator support from the second day after treatment initiation, or death, and time to improvement on an ordinal clinical severity scale. Secondary outcomes included treatment escalation, clinical deterioration, fever, and coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN69546370.

Findings

We enrolled 2101 children (aged 0 months to 19 years) with clinically diagnosed MIS-C from 39 countries between June 14, 2020, and April 25, 2022, and, following exclusions, 2009 patients were included for analysis (median age 8·0 years [IQR 4·2-11·4], 1191 [59·3%] male and 818 [40·7%] female, and 825 [41·1%] White). 680 (33·8%) patients received primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin, 698 (34·7%) with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, 487 (24·2%) with glucocorticoids alone; 59 (2·9%) patients received other combinations, including biologicals, and 85 (4·2%) patients received no immunomodulators. There were no significant differences between treatments for primary outcomes for the 1586 patients with complete baseline and outcome data that were considered for primary analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for ventilation, inotropic support, or death were 1·09 (95% CI 0·75-1·58; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids and 0·93 (0·58-1·47; corrected p value=1·00) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Adjusted average hazard ratios for time to improvement were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91-1·20; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, and 0·84 (0·70-1·00; corrected p value=0·22) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Treatment escalation was less frequent for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids (OR 0·15 [95% CI 0·11-0·20]; p<0·0001) and glucocorticoids alone (0·68 [0·50-0·93]; p=0·014) versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Persistent fever (from day 2 onward) was less common with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids compared with either intravenous immunoglobulin alone (OR 0·50 [95% CI 0·38-0·67]; p<0·0001) or glucocorticoids alone (0·63 [0·45-0·88]; p=0·0058). Coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution did not differ significantly between treatment groups.

Interpretation

Recovery rates, including occurrence and resolution of coronary artery aneurysms, were similar for primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin when compared to glucocorticoids or intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids. Initial treatment with glucocorticoids appears to be a safe alternative to immunoglobulin or combined therapy, and might be advantageous in view of the cost and limited availability of intravenous immunoglobulin in many countries.

Funding

Imperial College London, the European Union's Horizon 2020, Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Foundation, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and National Institutes of Health.

European study confirms the combination of fever and petechial rash as an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis

AIM

This study investigated febrile children with petechial rashes who presented to European emergency departments (EDs) and investigated the role that mechanical causes played in diagnoses.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with fever presenting to EDs in 11 European emergency departments in 2017-2018 were enrolled. The cause and focus of infection were identified and a detailed analysis was performed on children with petechial rashes. The results are presented as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

We found that 453/34010 (1.3%) febrile children had petechial rashes. The focus of the infection included sepsis (10/453, 2.2%) and meningitis (14/453, 3.1%). Children with a petechial rash were more likely than other febrile children to have sepsis or meningitis (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.3-13.1) and bacterial infections (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.8) as well as need for immediate life-saving interventions (OR 6.6, 95% CI 4.4-9.5) and intensive care unit admissions (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.0-12.5).

CONCLUSION

The combination of fever and petechial rash is still an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis. Ruling out coughing and/or vomiting was insufficient to safely identify low-risk patients.

Adoption of C-reactive protein point-of-care tests for the management of acute childhood infections in primary care in the Netherlands and England: a comparative health systems analysis

BACKGROUND

The use of point of care (POC) tests varies across Europe, but research into what drives this variability is lacking. Focusing on CRP POC tests, we aimed to understand what factors contribute to high versus low adoption of the tests, and also to explore whether they are used in children.

METHODS

We used a comparative qualitative case study approach to explore the implementation of CRP POC tests in the Netherlands and England. These countries were selected because although they have similar primary healthcare systems, the availability of CRP POC tests in General Practices is very different, being very high in the former and rare in the latter. The study design and analysis were informed by the non-adoption, abandonment, spread, scale-up and sustainability (NASSS) framework. Data were collected through a review of documents and interviews with stakeholders. Documents were identified through a scoping literature review, search of websites, and stakeholder recommendation. Stakeholders were selected purposively initially, and then by snowballing. Data were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Sixty-five documents were reviewed and 21 interviews were conducted. The difference in the availability of CRP POC tests is mainly because of differences at the wider national context level. In the two countries, early adopters of the tests advocated for their implementation through the generation of robust evidence and by engaging with all relevant stakeholders. This led to the inclusion of CRP POC tests in clinical guidelines in both countries. In the Netherlands, this mandated their reimbursement in accordance with Dutch regulations. Moreover, the prevailing better integration of health services enabled operational support from laboratories to GP practices. In England, the funding constraints of the National Health Service and the prioritization of alternative and less expensive antimicrobial stewardship interventions prevented the development of a reimbursement scheme. In addition, the lack of integration between health services limits the operational support to GP practices. In both countries, the availability of CRP POC tests for the management of children is a by-product of the test being available for adults. The tests are less used in children mainly because of concerns regarding their accuracy in this age-group.

CONCLUSIONS

The engagement of early adopters combined with a more favourable and receptive macro level environment, including the role of clinical guidelines and their developers in determining which interventions are reimbursed and the operational support from laboratories to GP practices, led to the greater adoption of the tests in the Netherlands. In both countries, CRP POC tests, when available, are less used less in children. Organisations considering introducing POC tests into primary care settings need to consider how their implementation fits into the wider health system context to ensure achievable plans.

Respective roles of non-pharmaceutical interventions in bronchiolitis outbreaks: an interrupted time-series analysis based on a multinational surveillance system

BACKGROUND

Bronchiolitis is a major source of morbimortality among young children worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented to reduce the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 may have had an important impact on bronchiolitis outbreaks, as well as major societal consequences. Discriminating between their respective impacts would help define optimal public health strategies against bronchiolitis. We aimed to assess the respective impact of each NPI on bronchiolitis outbreaks in 14 European countries.

METHODS

We conducted a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis based on a multicentre international study. All children diagnosed with bronchiolitis presenting to the paediatric emergency department of one of 27 centres from January 2018 to March 2021 were included. We assessed the association between each NPI and change in the bronchiolitis trend over time by seasonally adjusted multivariable quasi-Poisson regression modelling.

RESULTS

In total, 42 916 children were included. We observed an overall cumulative 78% (95% CI -100- -54%; p<0.0001) reduction in bronchiolitis cases following NPI implementation. The decrease varied between countries from -97% (95% CI -100- -47%; p=0.0005) to -36% (95% CI -79-7%; p=0.105). Full lockdown (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.21 (95% CI 0.14-0.30); p<0.001), secondary school closure (IRR 0.33 (95% CI 0.20-0.52); p<0.0001), wearing a mask indoors (IRR 0.49 (95% CI 0.25-0.94); p=0.034) and teleworking (IRR 0.55 (95% CI 0.31-0.97); p=0.038) were independently associated with reducing bronchiolitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Several NPIs were associated with a reduction of bronchiolitis outbreaks, including full lockdown, school closure, teleworking and facial masking. Some of these public health interventions may be considered to further reduce the global burden of bronchiolitis.

Availability and use of rapid diagnostic tests for the management of acute childhood infections in Europe: A cross-sectional survey of paediatricians

BACKGROUND

Point-of-care-tests (POCTs) have been advocated to optimise care in patients with infections but their actual use varies. This study aimed to estimate the variability in the adoption of current POCTs by paediatricians across Europe, and to explore the determinants of variability.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted of hospital and primary care paediatricians, recruited through professional networks. Questions focused on the availability and use of currently available POCTs. Data were analysed descriptively and using Median Odds Ratio (MOR) to measure variation between countries. Multilevel regression modelling using changes in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of models were used to assess the contribution of individual or workplace versus country level factors, to the observed variation. The commonest POCT was urine dipsticks (UD) which were available to >80% of primary care and hospital paediatricians in 68% (13/19) and 79% (23/29) countries, respectively. Availability of all POCTs varied between countries. In primary care, the country (MOR) varied from 1.61 (95%CI: 1.04-2.58) for lactate to 7.28 (95%CI: 3.04-24.35) for UD. In hospitals, the country MOR varied from 1.37 (95%CI:1.04-1.80) for lactate to 11.93 (95%CI:3.35-72.23) for UD. Most paediatricians in primary care (69%, 795/1154) and hospital (81%, 962/1188) would use a diagnostic test in the case scenario of an infant with undifferentiated fever. Multilevel regression modelling showed that the country of work was more important in predicting both the availability and use of POCTs than individual or workplace characteristics.

CONCLUSION

There is substantial variability in the adoption of POCTs for the management of acute infections in children across Europe. To inform future implementation of both existing and innovative tests, further research is needed to understand what drives the variation between countries, the needs of frontline clinicians, and the role of diagnostic tests in the management of acute childhood infections.

Sex differences in febrile children with respiratory symptoms attending European emergency departments: An observational multicenter study

Objective

To assess sex differences in presentation and management of febrile children with respiratory symptoms attending European Emergency Departments.

Design and setting

An observational study in twelve Emergency Departments in eight European countries.

Patients

Previously healthy children aged 0–<18 years with fever (≥ 38°C) at the Emergency Department or in the consecutive three days before Emergency Department visit and respiratory symptoms were included.

Main outcome measures

The main outcomes were patient characteristics and management defined as diagnostic tests, treatment and admission. Descriptive statistics were used for patient characteristics and management stratified by sex. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between sex and management with adjustment for age, disease severity and Emergency Department. Additionally, subgroup analyses were performed in children with upper and lower respiratory tract infections and in children below five years.

Results

We included 19,781 febrile children with respiratory symptoms. The majority were boys (54%), aged 1–5 years (58%) and triaged as low urgent (67%). Girls presented less frequently with tachypnea (15% vs 16%, p = 0.002) and increased work of breathing (8% vs 12%, p<0.001) compared with boys. Girls received less inhalation medication than boys (aOR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74–0.90), but received antibiotic treatment more frequently than boys (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.15), which is associated with a higher prevalence of urinary tract infections. Amongst children with a lower respiratory tract infection and children below five years girls received less inhalation medication than boys (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.66–0.89; aOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72–0.90).

Conclusions

Sex differences concerning presentation and management are present in previously healthy febrile children with respiratory symptoms presenting to the Emergency Department. Future research should focus on whether these differences are related to clinicians’ attitudes, differences in clinical symptoms at the time of presentation and disease severity.

Retrospective analysis of North West London healthcare utilisation by children during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

To explore the impact of the measures taken to combat COVID-19 on the patterns of acute illness in children presenting to primary and secondary care for North West London.

DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective analysis of 8 309 358 primary and secondary healthcare episodes of children <16 years registered with a North West London primary care practice between 2015 and 2021.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers of primary care consultations, emergency department (ED) attendances and emergency admissions during the pandemic were compared with those in the preceding 5 years. Trends were examined by age and for International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision-coded diagnoses of: infectious diseases, and injuries and poisonings for admitted children.

RESULTS

Comparing 2020 to the 2015-2019 mean, primary care consultations were 22% lower, ED attendances were 38% lower and admissions 35% lower. Following the first national lockdown in April 2020, primary care consultations were 39% lower compared with the April 2015-2019 mean, ED attendances were 72% lower and unscheduled hospital admissions were 63% lower. Admissions >48 hours were on average 13% lower overall during 2020, and 36% lower during April 2020. The reduction in admissions for infections (61% lower than 2015-2019 mean) between April and August 2020 was greater than for injuries (31% lower).

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an overall reduction in childhood illness presentations to health services in North West London, most prominent during periods of national lockdown, and with a greater impact on infections than injuries. These reductions demonstrate the impact on children of measures taken to combat COVID-19 across the health system.

Febrile children with comorbidities at the emergency department - a multicentre observational study

We aimed to describe characteristics and management of children with comorbidities attending European emergency departments (EDs) with fever. MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe) is a prospective multicentre study (12 European EDs, 8 countries). Febrile children with comorbidities were compared to those without in terms of patient characteristics, markers of disease severity, management, and diagnosis. Comorbidity was defined as a chronic underlying condition that is expected to last > 1 year. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, displaying adjusted odds ratios (aOR), adjusting for patient characteristics. We included 38,110 patients, of whom 5906 (16%) had comorbidities. Most common comorbidities were pulmonary, neurologic, or prematurity. Patients with comorbidities more often were ill appearing (20 versus 16%, p < 0.001), had an ED-Paediatric Early Warning Score of > 15 (22 versus 12%, p < 0.001), or a C-reactive protein > 60 mg/l (aOR 1.4 (95%CI 1.3-1.6)). They more often required life-saving interventions (aOR 2.7, 95% CI 2.2-3.3), were treated with intravenous antibiotics (aOR 2.3, 95%CI 2.1-2.5), and were admitted to the ward (aOR 2.2, 95%CI 2.1-2.4) or paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) (aOR 5.5, 95% CI 3.8-7.9). They were more often diagnosed with serious bacterial infections (aOR 1.8, 95%CI 1.7-2.0), including sepsis/meningitis (aOR 4.6, 95%CI 3.2-6.7). Children most at risk for sepsis/meningitis were children with malignancy/immunodeficiency (aOR 14.5, 8.5-24.8), while children with psychomotor delay/neurological disease were most at risk for life-saving interventions (aOR 5.3, 4.1-6.9) or PICU admission (aOR 9.7, 6.1-15.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show how children with comorbidities are a population at risk, as they more often are diagnosed with bacterial infections and more often require PICU admission and life-saving interventions.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• While children with comorbidity constitute a large part of ED frequent flyers, they are often excluded from studies.

WHAT IS NEW

• Children with comorbidities in general are more ill upon presentation than children without comorbidities. • Children with comorbidities form a heterogeneous group; specific subgroups have an increased risk for invasive bacterial infections, while others have an increased risk of invasive interventions such as PICU admission, regardless of the cause of the fever.

Update on the Coordinated Efforts of Looking After the Health Care Needs of Children and Young People Fleeing the Conflict Zone of Ukraine Presenting to European Emergency Departments-A Joint Statement of the European Society for Emergency Paediatrics and the European Academy of Paediatrics

This joint statement by the European Society for Emergency Paediatrics and European Academy of Paediatrics aims to highlight recommendations for dealing with refugee children and young people fleeing the Ukrainian war when presenting to emergency departments (EDs) across Europe. Children and young people might present, sometimes unaccompanied, with either ongoing complex health needs or illnesses, mental health issues, and injuries related to the war itself and the flight from it. Obstacles to providing urgent and emergency care include lack of clinical guidelines, language barriers, and lack of insight in previous medical history. Children with complex health needs are at high risk for complications and their continued access to specialist healthcare should be prioritized in resettlements programs. Ukraine has one of the lowest vaccination coverages in the Europe, and outbreaks of cholera, measles, diphtheria, poliomyelitis, and COVID-19 should be anticipated. In Ukraine, rates of multidrug resistant tuberculosis are high, making screening for this important. Urgent and emergency care facilities should also prepare for dealing with children with war-related injuries and mental health issues. Ukrainian refugee children and young people should be included in local educational systems and social activities at the earliest opportunity.

Rapid Viral Testing and Antibiotic Prescription in Febrile Children With Respiratory Symptoms Visiting Emergency Departments in Europe

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing often occurs in children with self-limiting respiratory tract infections, contributing to antimicrobial resistance. It has been suggested that rapid viral testing can reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. We aimed to assess the association between rapid viral testing at the Emergency Department (ED) and antibiotic prescription in febrile children.

METHODS

This study is part of the MOFICHE study, which is an observational multicenter study including routine data of febrile children (0-18 years) attending 12 European EDs. In children with respiratory symptoms visiting 6 EDs equipped with rapid viral testing, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis regarding rapid viral testing and antibiotic prescription adjusted for patient characteristics, disease severity, diagnostic tests, focus of infection, admission, and ED.

RESULTS

A rapid viral test was performed in 1061 children (8%) and not performed in 11,463 children. Rapid viral test usage was not associated with antibiotic prescription (aOR 0.9, 95% CI: 0.8-1.1). A positive rapid viral test was associated with less antibiotic prescription compared with children without test performed (aOR 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5-0.8), which remained significant after adjustment for CRP and chest radiograph result. Twenty percent of the positively tested children received antibiotics. A negative rapid viral test was not associated with antibiotic prescription (aOR 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0-1.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid viral test usage did not reduce overall antibiotic prescription, whereas a positive rapid viral test did reduce antibiotic prescription at the ED. Implementation of rapid viral testing in routine emergency care and compliance to the rapid viral test outcome will reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing at the ED.

Repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on child and adolescent mental health: A matter of concern-A joint statement from EAP and ECPCP

COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent rigid social distancing measures implemented, including school closures, have heavily impacted children's and adolescents' psychosocial wellbeing, and their mental health problems significantly increased. However, child and adolescent mental health were already a serious problem before the Pandemic all over the world. COVID-19 is not just a pandemic, it is a syndemic and mentally or socially disadvantaged children and adolescents are the most affected. Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) and previous mental health issues are an additional worsening condition. Even though many countries have responded with decisive efforts to scale-up mental health services, a more integrated and community-based approach to mental health is required. EAP and ECPCP makes recommendations to all the stakeholders to take action to promote, protect and care for the mental health of a generation.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on child health

Most Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in children are mild or asymptomatic. Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children is infrequent. An estimated 0.3–1.3% of children with SARS-CoV-2 infection were admitted to hospital, and of these 13–23% needed critical care. SARS-CoV-2 related deaths were very rare in children, estimated at 2 per million. The vast majority of admitted children had one of shortness of breath, fever, and cough, but atypical symptoms are more common in children. Cases of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) have been linked to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Cardinal symptoms include prolonged fever, clinical signs of inflammation, gastro-intestinal symptoms, and cardiac dysfunction. Twenty two to 80% of patients with MIS-C needed critical care; mortality of MIS-C is around 2%. Six to 24% of children with MIS-C had coronary artery dilatation or cardiac aneurysms. Equipoise still exists between first-line treatment with immunoglobulins and steroids. Outcomes for children with MIS-C are generally very good in those recognised early and started on appropriate treatment. Vaccination schemes for children are rapidly expanding, with the benefits of preventing severe COVID-19 disease and MIS-C and reducing community transmission outweighing the risks of adverse events of, amongst others, myocarditis temporally related to COVID-19 vaccination in children and young adults. The imposed social distancing measures reduced the overall number of children with acute illness or injury presenting to urgent and emergency care facilities worldwide. No clear signal was seen that large numbers of children had a delayed presentation to emergency care departments with a serious illness. The social distancing measures negatively impacted the mental health of children.

A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department: a European multicentre observational study of febrile children

Background

Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow.

Methods

The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0-18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).

Findings

Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84).The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0..95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use.

Interpretation

Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow.

Funding

European Union, NIHR, NHS.

A Novel Framework for Phenotyping Children With Suspected or Confirmed Infection for Future Biomarker Studies

Background: The limited diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers in children at risk of a serious bacterial infection (SBI) might be due to the imperfect reference standard of SBI. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of a new classification algorithm for biomarker discovery in children at risk of SBI. Methods: We used data from five previously published, prospective observational biomarker discovery studies, which included patients aged 0- <16 years: the Alder Hey emergency department (n = 1,120), Alder Hey pediatric intensive care unit (n = 355), Erasmus emergency department (n = 1,993), Maasstad emergency department (n = 714) and St. Mary's hospital (n = 200) cohorts. Biomarkers including procalcitonin (PCT) (4 cohorts), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin-2 (NGAL) (3 cohorts) and resistin (2 cohorts) were compared for their ability to classify patients according to current standards (dichotomous classification of SBI vs. non-SBI), vs. a proposed PERFORM classification algorithm that assign patients to one of eleven categories. These categories were based on clinical phenotype, test outcomes and C-reactive protein level and accounted for the uncertainty of final diagnosis in many febrile children. The success of the biomarkers was measured by the Area under the receiver operating Curves (AUCs) when they were used individually or in combination. Results: Using the new PERFORM classification system, patients with clinically confident bacterial diagnosis ("definite bacterial" category) had significantly higher levels of PCT, NGAL and resistin compared with those with a clinically confident viral diagnosis ("definite viral" category). Patients with diagnostic uncertainty had biomarker concentrations that varied across the spectrum. AUCs were higher for classification of "definite bacterial" vs. "definite viral" following the PERFORM algorithm than using the "SBI" vs. "non-SBI" classification; summary AUC for PCT was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.82) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.75); for NGAL this was 0.80 (95% CI 0.69-0.91) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.58-0.81); for resistin this was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61-0.75) vs. 0.64 (0.58-0.69) The three biomarkers combined had summary AUC of 0.83 (0.77-0.89) for "definite bacterial" vs. "definite viral" infections and 0.71 (0.67-0.74) for "SBI" vs. "non-SBI." Conclusion: Biomarkers of bacterial infection were strongly associated with the diagnostic categories using the PERFORM classification system in five independent cohorts. Our proposed algorithm provides a novel framework for phenotyping children with suspected or confirmed infection for future biomarker studies.

A clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department: A prospective multicentre observational study

Background

To develop a clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department.

Methods and findings

A secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study in five European EDs (the TRIAGE study), including consecutive children aged <16 years who were discharged following their initial ED visit (‘index’ visit), in 2012–2015. Standardised data on patient characteristics, Manchester Triage System urgency classification, vital signs, clinical interventions and procedures were collected. The outcome measure was serious illness defined as hospital admission or PICU admission or death in ED after an unplanned revisit within 7 days of the index visit. Prediction models were developed using multivariable logistic regression using characteristics of the index visit to predict the likelihood of a revisit with a serious illness. The clinical model included day and time of presentation, season, age, gender, presenting problem, triage urgency, and vital signs. An extended model added laboratory investigations, imaging, and intravenous medications. Cross validation between the five sites was performed, and discrimination and calibration were assessed using random effects models. A digital calculator was constructed for clinical implementation. 7,891 children out of 98,561 children had a revisit to the ED (8.0%), of whom 1,026 children (1.0%) returned to the ED with a serious illness. Rates of revisits with serious illness varied between the hospitals (range 0.7–2.2%). The clinical model had a summary Area under the operating curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65–0.74) and summary calibration slope of 0.83 (95% CI 0.67–0.99). 4,433 children (5%) had a risk of > = 3%, which was useful for ruling in a revisit with serious illness, with positive likelihood ratio 4.41 (95% CI 3.87–5.01) and specificity 0.96 (95% CI 0.95–0.96). 37,546 (39%) had a risk <0.5%, which was useful for ruling out a revisit with serious illness (negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (95% CI 0.25–0.35), sensitivity 0.88 (95% CI 0.86–0.90)). The extended model had an improved summary AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.68–0.75) and summary calibration slope of 0.84 (95% CI 0.71–0.97). As study limitations, variables on ethnicity and social deprivation could not be included, and only return visits to the original hospital and not to those of surrounding hospitals were recorded.

Conclusion

We developed a prediction model and a digital calculator which can aid physicians identifying those children at highest and lowest risks for developing a serious illness after initial discharge from the ED, allowing for more targeted safety netting advice and follow-up.

Changes in Emergency Department Activity and the First COVID-19 Lockdown: A Cross-sectional Study

Introduction

Emergency department (ED) attendances fell across the UK after the ‘lockdown’ introduced on 23rd March 2020 to limit the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We hypothesised that reductions would vary by patient age and disease type. We examined pre- and in-lockdown ED attendances for two COVID-19 unrelated diagnoses: one likely to be affected by lockdown measures (gastroenteritis), and one likely to be unaffected (appendicitis).

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study across two EDs in one London hospital Trust. We compared all adult and paediatric ED attendances, before (January 2020) and during lockdown (March/April 2020). Key patient demographics, method of arrival, and discharge location were compared. We used Systemised Nomenclature of Medicine codes to define attendances for gastroenteritis and appendicitis.

Results

ED attendances fell from 1129 per day before lockdown to 584 in lockdown, 51.7% of pre-lockdown rates. In-lockdown attendances were lowest for under-18s (16.0% of pre-lockdown). The proportion of patients admitted to hospital increased from 17.3% to 24.0%, and the proportion admitted to intensive care increased fourfold. Attendances for gastroenteritis fell from 511 to 103, 20.2% of pre-lockdown rates. Attendances for appendicitis also decreased, from 144 to 41, 28.5% of pre-lockdown rates.

Conclusion

ED attendances fell substantially following lockdown implementation. The biggest reduction was for under-18s. We observed reductions in attendances for gastroenteritis and appendicitis. This may reflect lower rates of infectious disease transmission, although the fall in appendicitis-related attendances suggests that behavioural factors were also important. Larger studies are urgently needed to understand changing patterns of ED use and access to emergency care during the coronavirus 2019 pandemic.

Performance of seven different paediatric early warning scores to predict critical care admission in febrile children presenting to the emergency department: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS) are widely used in the UK, but the heterogeneity across tools and the limited data on their predictive performance represent obstacles to improving best practice. The standardisation of practice through the proposed National PEWS will rely on robust validation. Therefore, we compared the performance of the National PEWS with six other PEWS currently used in NHS hospitals, for their ability to predict critical care (CC) admission in febrile children attending the emergency department (ED).

DESIGN

Retrospective single-centre cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary hospital paediatric ED.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 11 449 eligible febrile ED attendances were identified from the electronic patient record over a 2-year period. Seven PEWS scores were calculated (Alder Hey, Bedside, Bristol, National, Newcastle and Scotland PEWS, and the Paediatric Observation Priority Score, using the worst observations recorded during their ED stay.

OUTCOMES

The primary outcome was CC admission within 48 hours, the secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay (LOS) >48 hours and sepsis-related mortality.

RESULTS

Of 11 449 febrile children, 134 (1.2%) were admitted to CC within 48 hours of ED presentation, 606 (5.3%) had a hospital LOS >48 hours. 10 (0.09%) children died, 5 (0.04%) were sepsis-related. All seven PEWS demonstrated excellent discrimination for CC admission (range area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) 0.91-0.95) and sepsis-related mortality (range AUC 0.95-0.99), most demonstrated moderate discrimination for hospital LOS (range AUC 0.69-0.75). In CC admission threshold analyses, bedside PEWS (AUC 0.90; 95% CI 0.86 to 0.93) and National PEWS (AUC 0.90; 0.87-0.93) were the most discriminative, both at a threshold of ≥6.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the use of the proposed National PEWS in the paediatric ED for the recognition of suspected sepsis to improve outcomes, but further validation is required in other settings and presentations.

Variation in hospital admission in febrile children evaluated at the Emergency Department (ED) in Europe: PERFORM, a multicentre prospective observational study

Objectives

Hospitalisation is frequently used as a marker of disease severity in observational Emergency Department (ED) studies. The comparison of ED admission rates is complex in potentially being influenced by the characteristics of the region, ED, physician and patient. We aimed to study variation in ED admission rates of febrile children, to assess whether variation could be explained by disease severity and to identify patient groups with large variation, in order to use this to reduce unnecessary health care utilization that is often due to practice variation.

Design

MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe, part of the PERFORM study, www.perform2020.org), is a prospective cohort study using routinely collected data on febrile children regarding patient characteristics (age, referral, vital signs and clinical alarming signs), diagnostic tests, therapy, diagnosis and hospital admission.

Setting and participants

Data were collected on febrile children aged 0–18 years presenting to 12 European EDs (2017–2018).

Main outcome measures

We compared admission rates between EDs by using standardised admission rates after adjusting for patient characteristics and initiated tests at the ED, where standardised rates >1 demonstrate higher admission rates than expected and rates <1 indicate lower rates than expected based on the ED patient population.

Results

We included 38,120 children. Of those, 9.695 (25.4%) were admitted to a general ward (range EDs 5.1–54.5%). Adjusted standardised admission rates ranged between 0.6 and 1.5. The largest variation was seen in short admission rates (0.1–5.0), PICU admission rates (0.2–2.2), upper respiratory tract infections (0.4–1.7) and fever without focus (0.5–2.7). Variation was small in sepsis/meningitis (0.9–1.1).

Conclusions

Large variation exists in admission rates of febrile children evaluated at European EDs, however, this variation is largely reduced after correcting for patient characteristics and therefore overall admission rates seem to adequately reflect disease severity or a potential for a severe disease course. However, for certain patient groups variation remains high even after adjusting for patient characteristics.

Clinical practice guidelines for acute otitis media in children: a systematic review and appraisal of European national guidelines

OBJECTIVES

To appraise European guidelines for acute otitis media (AOM) in children, including methodological quality, level of evidence (LoE), astrength of recommendations (SoR), and consideration of antibiotic stewardship.

DESIGN

Systematic review of the literature.

DATA SOURCES

Three-pronged search of (1) databases: Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, Guidelines International Network and Trip Medical Database; (2) websites of European national paediatric associations and (3) contact of European experts. Data were collected between January 2017 and February 2018.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

National guidelines of European countries for the clinical management of AOM in children aged <16 years.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data were extracted using tables constructed by the research team. Guidelines were graded using AGREE II criteria. LoE and SoR were compared. Guidelines were assessed for principles of antibiotic stewardship.

RESULTS

AOM guidelines were obtained from 17 or the 32 countries in the European Union or European Free Trade Area. The mean AGREE II score was ≤41% across most domains. Diagnosis of AOM was based on similar signs and symptoms. The most common indication for antibiotics was tympanic membrane perforation/otorrhoea (14/15; 93%). The majority (15/17; 88%) recommended a watchful waiting approach to antibiotics. Amoxicillin was the most common first-line antibiotic (14/17; 82%). Recommended treatment duration varied from 5 to 10 days. Seven countries advocated high-dose (75-90 mg/kg/day) and five low-dose (30-60 mg/kg/day) amoxicillin. Less than 60% of guidelines used a national or international scale system to rate level of evidence to support recommendations. Under half of the guidelines (7/17; 41%) referred to country-specific microbiological and antibiotic resistance data.

CONCLUSIONS

Guidelines for managing AOM were similar across European countries. Guideline quality was mostly weak, and it often did not refer to country-specific antibiotic resistance patterns. Coordinating efforts to produce a core guideline which can then be adapted by each country may help improve overall quality and contribute to tackling antibiotic resistance.

Management of Children With Fever at Risk for Pediatric Sepsis: A Prospective Study in Pediatric Emergency Care

Objective: To study warning signs of serious infections in febrile children presenting to PED, ascertain their risk of having sepsis, and evaluate their management. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: A single pediatric emergency department (PED). Participants: Febrile children, aged 1 month-16 years, with >= 1 warning signs of sepsis. Interventions and Main outcome measures: Clinical characteristics, including different thresholds for tachycardia and tachypnoea, and their association with (1) delivery of pediatric sepsis 6 (PS6) interventions, (2) final diagnosis of invasive bacterial infection (IBI), (3) the risk for pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission, and (4) death. Results: Forty-one percent of 5,156 febrile children had warning signs of sepsis. 1,606 (34%) children had tachypnoea and 1,907 (39%) children had tachycardia when using APLS threshold values. Using the NICE sepsis guidelines thresholds resulted in 1,512 (32%) children having tachypnoea (kappa 0.56) and 2,769 (57%) children having tachycardia (kappa 0.66). Of 1,628 PED visits spanning 1,551 disease episodes, six children (0.4%) had IBI, with one death (0.06%), corresponding with 256 children requiring escalation of care according to sepsis guideline recommendations for each child with IBI. There were five additional PICU admissions (0.4%). 121 (7%) had intravenous antibiotics in PED; 39 children (2%) had an intravenous fluid bolus, inotrope drugs were started in one child. 440 children (27%) were reviewed by a senior clinician. In 4/11 children with IBI or PICU admission or death, PS6 interventions were delivered within 60 min after arriving. 1,062 (65%) visits had no PS6 interventions. Diagnostic performance of vital signs or sepsis criteria for predicting serious illness yielded a large proportion of false positives. Lactataemia was not associated with giving iv fluid boluses (p = 0.19) or presence of serious bacterial infections (p = 0.128). Conclusion: Many febrile children (41%) present with warning signs for sepsis, with only few of them undergoing investigations or treatment for true sepsis. Children with positive isolates in blood or CSF culture presented in a heterogeneous manner, with varying levels of urgency and severity of illness. Delivery of sepsis care can be improved in only a minority of children with IBI or admitted to PICU.

Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome: Statement by the Pediatric Section of the European Society for Emergency Medicine and European Academy of Pediatrics

A rise in cases with a new hyperinflammatory disease in children has been reported in Europe and in the Unites States of America, named the Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome-temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS). There appears to be a wide spectrum of signs and symptoms with varying degrees of severity, including a toxic shock like presentation with hypovolaemia and shock, and a Kawasaki-like presentation with involvement of the coronary arteries. Most of these children have evidence of a previous infection with SARS-CoV-2, or a history of significant exposure, but not all. Limited data exist on the incidence of PIMS-TS, but it remains a rare condition. Early recognition and escalation of care is important to prevent the development of serious sequelae, such as coronary artery aneurysms. Clinicians assessing febrile children in primary and secondary care should include PIMS-TS in their differential diagnoses. In children fulfilling the case definition, additional investigations should be undertaken to look for evidence of inflammation and multiorgan involvement. Suspected cases should be discussed with experts in pediatric infectious diseases at an early stage, and advice should be sought from critical care in more severe cases early. There is limited consensus on treatment; but most children have been treated with immunoglobulins or steroids, and with early consideration of biologicals such anti-TNF and anti-IL1 agents. Treatment should ideally be within the context of controlled treatment trials. Clinicians are encouraged to document and share their cases using research registries.

Effects of saline or albumin fluid bolus in resuscitation: evidence from re-analysis of the FEAST trial

BACKGROUND

Fluid resuscitation is the recommended management of shock, but increased mortality in febrile African children in the FEAST trial. We hypothesised that fluid bolus-induced deaths in FEAST would be associated with detectable changes in cardiovascular, neurological, or respiratory function, oxygen carrying capacity, and blood biochemistry.

METHODS

We developed composite scores for respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological function using vital sign data from the FEAST trial, and used them to compare participants from FEAST with those from four other cohorts and to identify differences between the bolus (n=2097) and no bolus (n=1044) groups of FEAST. We calculated the odds of adverse outcome for each ten-unit increase in baseline score using logistic regression for each cohort. Within FEAST participants, we also compared haemoglobin and plasma biochemistry between bolus and non-bolus patients, assessed the effects of these factors along with the vital sign scores on the contribution of bolus to mortality using Cox proportional hazard models, and used Bayesian clustering to identify subgroups that differed in response to bolus. The FEAST trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN69856593.

FINDINGS

Increasing respiratory (odds ratio 1·09, 95% CI 1·07-1·11), neurological (1·26, 1·21-1·31), and cardiovascular scores (1·09, 1·05-1·14) were associated with death in FEAST (all p<0·0001), and with adverse outcomes for specific scores in the four other cohorts. In FEAST, fluid bolus increased respiratory and neurological scores and decreased cardiovascular score at 1 h after commencement of the infusion. Fluid bolus recipients had mean 0·33 g/dL (95% CI 0·20-0·46) reduction in haemoglobin concentration after 8 h (p<0·0001), and at 24 h had a decrease of 1·41 mEq/L (95% CI 0·76-2·06; p=0·0002) in mean base excess and increase of 1·65 mmol/L (0·47-2·8; p=0·0070) in mean chloride, and a decrease of 0·96 mmol/L (0·45 to 1·47; p=0·0003) in bicarbonate. There were similar effects of fluid bolus in three patient subgroups, identified on the basis of their baseline characteristics. Hyperchloraemic acidosis and respiratory and neurological dysfunction induced by saline or albumin bolus explained the excess mortality due to bolus in Cox survival models.

INTERPRETATION

In the resuscitation of febrile children, albumin and saline boluses can cause respiratory and neurological dysfunction, hyperchloraemic acidosis, and reduction in haemoglobin concentration. The findings support the notion that fluid resuscitation with unbuffered electrolyte solutions may cause harm and their use should be cautioned. The effects of lower volumes of buffered solutions should be evaluated further.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Department for International Development, National Institute for Health Research, Imperial College Biomedical Research Centre.

Comparison of peripheral and central capillary refill time in febrile children presenting to a paediatric emergency department and its utility in identifying children with serious bacterial infection

OBJECTIVE

To determine the agreement between peripheral and central capillary refill time (pCRT/cCRT) and their diagnostic values for detecting serious bacterial infection (SBI) in febrile children attending the paediatric emergency department (ED).

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Paediatric ED, Erasmus Medium Care-Sophia Children's hospital, the Netherlands.

PATIENTS

1193 consecutively included, previously healthy, febrile children (1 month-16 years) with both pCRT measurements and cCRT measurements available. SBI diagnosis was based on abnormal radiographic findings and/or positive cultures from normally sterile locations in addition to clinical criteria.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Agreement between pCRT and cCRT (Cohen's κ), overall and stratified for age and body temperature. The diagnostic value of pCRT and cCRT for SBI was assessed with logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall agreement was 0.35 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.43; considered 'fair'). Although not significant, agreement was lower in children aged 1-<5 years (κ: 0.15 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.27)) and decreased with higher body temperatures with κ ranging from 0.55 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.79) for temperature <37.5°C to 0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.34) for temperature >39.5°C. Abnormal pCRT (>2 s) was observed in 153 (12.8%; 95% CI 10.9% to 14.7%) and abnormal cCRT in 55 (4.6%; 95% CI 3.4% to 5.8%) children. The OR of abnormal pCRT (>2 s) for predicting SBI was 1.10 (95% CI 0.65 to 1.84). For abnormal cCRT (>2 s), the OR was 0.43 (95% CI 0.13 to 1.39).

CONCLUSIONS

The pCRT and cCRT values showed only fair agreement in a general population of febrile children at the ED, and no significant association with age or body temperature was found. Only a small part of febrile children at risk for serious infections at the ED show abnormal CRT values. Both abnormal pCRT and cCRT (defined as >2 s) performed poorly and were non-significant in this study detecting SBI in a general population of febrile children.

Impact of a clinical decision model for febrile children at risk for serious bacterial infections at the emergency department: a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of a clinical decision model for febrile children at risk for serious bacterial infections (SBI) attending the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

Randomized controlled trial with 439 febrile children, aged 1 month-16 years, attending the pediatric ED of a Dutch university hospital during 2010-2012. Febrile children were randomly assigned to the intervention (clinical decision model; n = 219) or the control group (usual care; n = 220). The clinical decision model included clinical symptoms, vital signs, and C-reactive protein and provided high/low-risks for "pneumonia" and "other SBI". Nurses were guided by the intervention to initiate additional tests for high-risk children. The clinical decision model was evaluated by 1) area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve (AUC) to indicate discriminative ability and 2) feasibility, to measure nurses' compliance to model recommendations. Primary patient outcome was defined as correct SBI diagnoses. Secondary process outcomes were defined as length of stay; diagnostic tests; antibiotic treatment; hospital admission; revisits and medical costs.

RESULTS

The decision model had good discriminative ability for both pneumonia (n = 33; AUC 0.83 (95% CI 0.75-0.90)) and other SBI (n = 22; AUC 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.90)). Compliance to model recommendations was high (86%). No differences in correct SBI determination were observed. Application of the clinical decision model resulted in less full-blood-counts (14% vs. 22%, p-value < 0.05) and more urine-dipstick testing (71% vs. 61%, p-value < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to our expectations no substantial impact on patient outcome was perceived. The clinical decision model preserved, however, good discriminatory ability to detect SBI, achieved good compliance among nurses and resulted in a more standardized diagnostic approach towards febrile children, with less full blood-counts and more rightfully urine-dipstick testing.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Nederlands Trial Register NTR2381.

[Impact of a clinical decision model for febrile children at risk for serious bacterial infections at the emergency department: a randomized controlled trial]

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of a clinical decision model for febrile children at risk for serious bacterial infections (SBI) attending the emergency department (ED).

METHOD

Randomized controlled trial with 439 febrile children, aged 1 month-16 years, attending the pediatric ED of a Dutch university hospital during 2010-2012. Febrile children were randomly assigned to the intervention (clinical decision model; n=219) or the control group (usual care; n=220). The clinical decision model included clinical symptoms, vital signs, and C-reactive protein and provided high/low-risks for "pneumonia" and "other SBI". Nurses were guided by the intervention to initiate additional tests for high-risk children. Primary patient outcome was defined as correct SBI diagnoses. Secondary process outcomes were defined as length of stay; diagnostic tests; antibiotic treatment; hospital admission; revisits and medical costs.

RESULTS

The decision model had good discriminative ability for both pneumonia (n=33; AUC 0.83 (95% CI 0.75-0.90)) and other SBI (n=22; AUC 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.90)). Compliance to model recommendations was high (86%). No differences in correct SBI determination was observed. Application of the clinical decision model resulted in less full-blood-counts (14% vs. 22%, p-value<0.05) and more urine-dipstick testing (71% vs. 61%, p-value<0.05).

CONCLUSION

In contrast to our expectations no substantial impact on patient outcome was perceived. The clinical decision model preserved however, good discriminatory ability to detect SBI, achieved good compliance among nurses and resulted in a more standardized diagnostic approach towards febrile children, with less full blood-counts and more rightfully urine-dipstick testing. Trial registration: Trialregister.nl: NTR2381.

[Guideline for febrile children in the hospital setting; relevance for general practitioners and paediatricians]

Febrile children pose the diagnostic dilemma of distinguishing those with serious infections from the vast majority with self-limiting diseases at an early stage. Alarm symptoms can aid in assessing the probability of serious infections in febrile children. The combined absence of alarm symptoms is useful in ruling out serious infections. CRP and PCT values are important diagnostic markers in febrile children in hospital settings. Children without any alarm symptoms and low inflammatory markers can be treated conservatively, provided there are good instructions on reassessment. Children with amber alarm symptoms or mildly elevated inflammatory markers in whom a serious infection cannot be ruled out require clinical observation or ambulant follow-up; empirical parenteral antibiotic treatment should also be considered and easily accessible. Children with red alarm symptoms or highly elevated inflammatory markers deserve clinical observation. In children < 3 months, empirical parenteral antibiotic treatment is also indicated.

Use of alarm features in referral of febrile children to the emergency department: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic value of alarm features of serious infections in low prevalence settings is unclear.

AIM

To explore to what extent alarm features play a role in referral to the emergency department (ED) by GPs who face a febrile child during out-of-hours care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Observational study using semi-structured, routine clinical practice data of febrile children (<16 years) presenting to GP out-of-hours care.

METHOD

Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between alarm features of serious infections (selected from two guidelines and one systematic review) and referral to the ED. Adherence to the guideline was explored by a 2×2 contingency table.

RESULTS

In total 794 (8.1%) of 9794 eligible patients were referred to the ED. Alarm signs most strongly associated with referral were 'age <1 month', 'decreased consciousness', 'meningeal irritation', and 'signs of dehydration'. Nineteen percent of 3424 children with a positive referral indication according to the guideline were referred to the ED. The majority of those not referred had only one or two alarm features present. A negative referral indication was adhered to for the majority of children. Still, in 20% of referred children, alarm features were absent.

CONCLUSION

In contrast to guidance, GPs working in primary out-of-hours care seem more conservative in referring febrile children to the ED, especially if only one or two alarm features of serious infection are present. In addition, in 20% of referred children, alarm features were absent, which suggests that other factors may be important in decisions about referral of febrile children to the hospital ED.

Clinical prediction model to aid emergency doctors managing febrile children at risk of serious bacterial infections: diagnostic study

OBJECTIVE

To derive, cross validate, and externally validate a clinical prediction model that assesses the risks of different serious bacterial infections in children with fever at the emergency department.

DESIGN

Prospective observational diagnostic study.

SETTING

Three paediatric emergency care units: two in the Netherlands and one in the United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

Children with fever, aged 1 month to 15 years, at three paediatric emergency care units: Rotterdam (n=1750) and the Hague (n=967), the Netherlands, and Coventry (n=487), United Kingdom. A prediction model was constructed using multivariable polytomous logistic regression analysis and included the predefined predictor variables age, duration of fever, tachycardia, temperature, tachypnoea, ill appearance, chest wall retractions, prolonged capillary refill time (>3 seconds), oxygen saturation <94%, and C reactive protein.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Pneumonia, other serious bacterial infections (SBIs, including septicaemia/meningitis, urinary tract infections, and others), and no SBIs.

RESULTS

Oxygen saturation <94% and presence of tachypnoea were important predictors of pneumonia. A raised C reactive protein level predicted the presence of both pneumonia and other SBIs, whereas chest wall retractions and oxygen saturation <94% were useful to rule out the presence of other SBIs. Discriminative ability (C statistic) to predict pneumonia was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.88); for other SBIs this was even better: 0.86 (0.79 to 0.92). Risk thresholds of 10% or more were useful to identify children with serious bacterial infections; risk thresholds less than 2.5% were useful to rule out the presence of serious bacterial infections. External validation showed good discrimination for the prediction of pneumonia (0.81, 0.69 to 0.93); discriminative ability for the prediction of other SBIs was lower (0.69, 0.53 to 0.86).

CONCLUSION

A validated prediction model, including clinical signs, symptoms, and C reactive protein level, was useful for estimating the likelihood of pneumonia and other SBIs in children with fever, such as septicaemia/meningitis and urinary tract infections.

Vital signs should be maintained as continuous variables when predicting bacterial infections in febrile children

OBJECTIVE

To determine how vital signs such as heart and respiratory rates should be included in prediction models for serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in febrile children.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Prospective observational study of 1,750 febrile children aged <16 years, visiting the emergency department of a university hospital; of them 13% (n = 222) had SBI. Common age-specific thresholds of heart and respiratory rates were used to define tachycardia and tachypnea. We compared seven strategies to handle vital signs as predictors of SBI (dichotomized or continuously in various ways).

RESULTS

The dichotomous predictors, namely tachycardia and tachypnea, containing information on the vital sign and age showed limited value to predict the presence of SBI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC (ROC)]: 0.53 for heart rate and 0.55 for respiratory rate). In comparison, a model with age as a single continuous predictor resulted in an AUC of 0.58. Models with age and one of the vital signs included continuously showed the highest AUC (heart rate: 0.60 and respiratory rate: 0.63).

CONCLUSION

Heart and respiratory rates should be maintained as continuous variables in model development to predict SBI in febrile children, as dichotomization results in information loss and lower predictive ability.

Derivation and validation of age and temperature specific reference values and centile charts to predict lower respiratory tract infection in children with fever: prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To develop reference values and centile charts for respiratory rate based on age and body temperature, and to determine how well these reference values can predict the presence of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in children with fever.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

PARTICIPANTS

Febrile children aged at least 1 month to just under 16 years (derivation population, n = 1555; validation population, n = 671) selected from patients attending paediatric emergency departments or assessment units in hospitals.

SETTING

One hospital in the Netherlands in 2006 and 2008 (derivation population); one hospital in the Netherlands in 2003-05 and one hospital in the United Kingdom in 2005-06 (validation population).

INTERVENTION

We used the derivation population to produce respiratory rate centile charts, and calculated 50th, 75th, 90th, and 97th centiles of respiratory rate at a specific body temperature. Multivariable regression analysis explored associations between respiratory rate, age, and temperature; results were validated in the validation population by calculating diagnostic performance measures, z scores, and corresponding centiles of children with diagnoses of pneumonic LRTI (as confirmed by chest radiograph), non-pneumonic LRTI, and non-LRTI.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Age, respiratory rate (breaths/min) and body temperature (°C), presence of LRTI.

RESULTS

Respiratory rate increased overall by 2.2 breaths/min per 1°C rise (standard error 0.2) after accounting for age and temperature in the model. We observed no interactions between age, temperature, and respiratory rates. Age and temperature dependent cut-off values at the 97th centile were more useful for ruling in LRTI (specificity 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96), positive likelihood ratio 3.66 (2.34 to 5.73)) than existing respiratory rate thresholds such as Advanced Pediatrics Life Support values (0.53 (0.48 to 0.57), 1.59 (1.41 to 1.80)). However, centile cut-offs could not discriminate between pneumonic LRTI and non-pneumonic LRTI.

CONCLUSIONS

Age specific and temperature dependent centile charts describe new reference values for respiratory rate in children with fever. Cut-off values at the 97th centile were more useful in detecting the presence of LRTI than existing respiratory rate thresholds.

Can urgency classification of the Manchester triage system predict serious bacterial infections in febrile children?

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the discriminative ability of the Manchester triage system (MTS) to identify serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children with fever in the emergency department (ED) and to study the association between predictors of SBI and discriminators of MTS urgency of care.

METHODS

This prospective observational study included 1255 children with fever (1 month-16 years) attending the ED of the Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands in 2008-9. Triage urgency was determined with the MTS (urgency (U) level 1-5). The relationship between triage urgency and SBI was assessed with multivariable logistic regression, including effects of age, sex and temperature. Discriminative ability was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

SBI prevalence was 11% (n=131, 95% CI 9% to 12%). The discriminative value of the MTS for predicting SBI was 0.57 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.62), and the MTS did not contribute to a model including age, sex and temperature. The sensitivity of the MTS (U1-2 vs U3-5) to detect SBI was 0.42 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.51) and specificity was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.72). MTS high urgency discriminators include several known predictors of SBI, such as fever, work of breathing, meningism and oxygen saturation, but apply to non-SBI children as well.

CONCLUSION

The MTS has poor discriminative ability to predict the presence of SBIs in children presenting with fever to the paediatric ED. Important predictors of SBI are represented within the MTS, but are used in a different way to classify urgency.