Cost-effectiveness of alternative triage strategies for atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for adolescent girls in Japan: A comparison of 2-valent, 4-valent, and 9-valent HPV vaccines with consideration of cross-protection

OBJECTIVE

In April 2023, the Japanese Health Ministry panel approved the inclusion of the 9-valent human papillomavirus (9vHPV) vaccine in the National Immunization Program, alongside the 2-valent (2vHPV) and 4-valent HPV (4vHPV) vaccines. In response to this, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of these three vaccines for routine immunization of girls aged 12-16 in Japan, considering the cross-protection of 2vHPV and 4vHPV vaccines.

METHODS

We constructed an age-structured mathematical model for HPV transmission, aiming to quantify the economic and epidemiological effects of various HPV vaccination strategies over a 70-year period in Japan. We determined incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each strategy, applying a 3% annual discount. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of our model results, with all evaluations done in 2023.

RESULTS

Our projections indicate that the HPV vaccination program in Japan will significantly reduce the incidence of HPV-related diseases. All HPV vaccination strategies, using the 2vHPV, 4vHPV, and 9vHPV vaccines, were found to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of ¥971,447/QALY, ¥1,237,297/QALY, and ¥742,084/QALY, respectively. Direct comparisons between vaccines demonstrated that the 9vHPV vaccination was more cost-effective than the 2vHPV vaccination, whereas 4vHPV vaccination was dominated by 2vHPV vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study validates the cost-effectiveness of implementing the 9vHPV vaccine as the primary option over the 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccine for girls in Japan. These findings underscore the need to improve the acceptance rate and coverage of HPV vaccinations in the country.

Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact Analysis of Primary Screening With Human Papillomavirus Test With Genotyping in Argentina

OBJECTIVES

Cervical cancer (ICC) is the fourth leading cause of mortality in women in Argentina and primary screening with conventional cytology (Papanicolaou smear) is the most widely used strategy despite its limitations. Strategies based on human papillomavirus (HPV) testing have the potential to improve detection and reduce mortality. The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of a strategy based on HPV testing with genotyping.

METHODS

We used a decision model to compare the ICC screening strategies. The population consisted of 30- to 65-year-old females suitable for screening in Argentina. Inputs comprised epidemiologic, diagnostic performance, and costs data. The clinical impact was represented by the number of ICC detected and ICC-related mortality. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, estimated in terms of Argentinean pesos per life-year gained, and the budgetary impact were calculated at 5, 10, and 20 years. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Primary screening with HPV testing would prevent 1853 ICC deaths and reduce mortality by 13% at year 10 compared with Papanicolaou smear. With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AR$329 042 in the base case, it would be cost-effective for a cost-effectiveness threshold of 1 gross domestic product per capita. It would imply an additional expense in the first 5 years and probably savings in the subsequent ones. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary screening strategy based on HPV testing with genotyping compared with conventional cytology is most likely a cost-effective strategy in Argentina.

Real-world effectiveness of primary screening with high-risk human papillomavirus testing in the cervical cancer screening programme in China: a nationwide, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Randomized controlled trials have shown a higher sensitivity and longer negative predictive value of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) testing than cytology for cervical cancer screening; however, little is known about the effectiveness of HPV testing in middle-income countries. Understanding the characteristics of HPV testing may increase the priority of HPV testing in health policies. The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of HPV testing in the national cervical cancer screening programme in China.

METHODS

We performed a nationwide, population-based study using individual data from the national cervical cancer screening programme in rural China between 2015 and 2017. The analyses included 1,160,981 women aged 35-64 years who underwent cytology alone or high-risk HPV testing with cytology or genotyping triage. The main outcome was cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse (CIN2+). We used multivariate logistic regressions and performed sensitivity analyses with propensity score matching to compare the screening positive, colposcopy referral, detection rate, and positive predictive value (PPV).

RESULTS

The screening positive rates for HPV testing and cytology were 10.1% and 4.0%, respectively. The per protocol colposcopy referral rate of HPV testing was significantly lower than that of cytology (3.5% vs 4.0%), and this difference was mostly due to the low referral threshold of cytology (≥ASC-US). Overall, HPV testing detected more CIN2+ (5.5 vs. 4.4 per 1000, adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.25) and had a higher PPV (13.8% vs 10.9%, aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.21-1.37) than cytology. The colposcopy referrals of HPV testing in comparison to cytology differed by income status; it significantly increased in lower-middle-income areas (3.7% vs 3.1%, aOR 1.21, 95% CI 1.17-1.25) and significantly decreased in upper-middle-income areas (3.4% vs 4.9%, aOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.67-0.71). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the reliability and robustness of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of HPV testing could improve both the CIN2+ detection rate and efficiency of cervical cancer screening programme, supporting the introduction of primary screening with high-risk HPV testing in China. Further study is needed to investigate the long-term effect of this change.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer in Singapore

BACKGROUND

The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been shown to extend protection against oncogenic HPV types 31/33/45/52/58 (HPV-OV) not covered by the bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines. Besides its clinical benefit, evidence on the economic value of the nonavalent vaccine is required to inform local vaccination strategies and funding decisions. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of replacing the bivalent vaccine with the nonavalent vaccine in the national school-based HPV vaccination programme in Singapore.

METHODS

An existing age-structured dynamic transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations was adapted to project the health and economic impact of vaccinating 13-year-old girls with two doses of the nonavalent or bivalent HPV vaccines in Singapore. Direct costs (in Singapore dollars, S$) were obtained from public healthcare institutions in Singapore, while health state utilities were sourced from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon, from a healthcare system perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to obtain the ICERs and corresponding variations across variable uncertainty. Particularly, this study tested the scenarios of lifelong and 20-year vaccine-induced protection, assumed 96.0% and 22.3% cross-protection against HPV-OV by nonavalent and bivalent vaccines respectively, and fixed vaccine prices per dose at S$188 for nonavalent and S$61.50 for bivalent vaccines.

RESULTS

Compared with the bivalent vaccine, the use of the nonavalent vaccine was associated with an ICER of S$61,629 per quality-adjusted life year gained in the base case. The result was robust across a range of plausible input values, and to assumptions regarding the duration of vaccine protection.

CONCLUSION

Given the high ICER, the nonavalent vaccine is unlikely to represent a cost-effective option compared with the bivalent vaccine for school-based HPV vaccination of 13-year old female students in Singapore. Substantial price reductions would be required to justify its inclusion in the school-based programme in the future.

A proposed new generation of evidence-based microsimulation models to inform global control of cervical cancer

Health decision models are the only available tools designed to consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and the estimated long-term impact of preventive interventions. Yet health decision modeling results are often considered a lesser form of scientific evidence due to the inherent needs to rely on imperfect data and make numerous assumptions and extrapolations regarding complex processes. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses due to their subjectivity and lack of reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of subsequent transition probabilities. We posit that the new model health states (normal, carcinogenic HPV infection, precancer, cancer) and corollary transitions are universal, but that the probabilities of transitioning between states may vary by population. Evidence for this variability in host response to HPV infections can be inferred from HPV prevalence patterns in different regions across the lifespan, and might be linked to different average population levels of immunologic control of HPV infections. By prioritizing direct estimation of model transition probabilities from longitudinal data (and limiting reliance on model-fitting techniques that may propagate error when applied to multiple transitions), we aim to reduce the number of assumptions for greater transparency and reliability. We propose this new microsimulation model for critique and discussion, hoping to contribute to models that maximally inform efficient strategies towards global cervical cancer elimination.

A Systems Approach to Person-Centric Health Economics

The economics of health and the economics of health care are not the same, and in fact can be competitors for resources in some cases. Using a traditional supply/demand framework can clarify the forces at work in person-centric health economics. Use of cost-effectiveness analysis, employing a broader systems perspective that incorporates sectors other than health care, and nudging individuals to better health habits are three strategies that can help to drive a shift from health care to health.

Mathematical analysis of a two-sex Human Papillomavirus (HPV) model

A two-sex deterministic model for Human Papillomavirus (HPV) that assesses the impact of treatment and vaccination on its transmission dynamics is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, caused by the imperfect vaccine as well as the re-infection of individuals who recover from a previous infection, when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Analysis of the reproduction number reveals that the impact of treatment on effective control of the disease is conditional, and depends on the sign of a certain threshold unlike when preventive measures are implemented (i.e. condom use and vaccination of both males and females). Numerical simulations of the model showed that, based on the parameter values used therein, a vaccine (with 75% efficacy) for male population with about 40% condom compliance by females will result in a significant reduction in the disease burden in the population. Also, the numerical simulations of the model reveal that with 70% condom compliance by the male population, administering female vaccine (with 45% efficacy) is sufficient for effective control of the disease.

Simultaneously characterizing the comparative economics of routine female adolescent nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and assortativity of sexual mixing in Hong Kong Chinese: a modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

Although routine vaccination of females before sexual debut against human papillomavirus (HPV) has been found to be cost-effective around the world, its cost-benefit has rarely been examined. We evaluate both the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination in Hong Kong to guide its policy, and by extension that of mainland China, on HPV vaccination. One major obstacle is the lack of data on assortativity of sexual mixing. Such difficulty could be overcome by inferring sexual mixing parameters from HPV epidemiologic data.

METHODS

We use an age-structured transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations to estimate the health and economic impact of routine nonavalent HPV vaccination for girls at age 12 on cervical cancer burden and consider vaccine uptake at 25%, 50%, and 75% with at least 20 years of vaccine protection. Bayesian inference was employed to parameterize the model using local data on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence. We use the human capital approach in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and GDP per capita as the indicative willingness-to-pay threshold in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Finally, we estimate the threshold vaccine cost (TVC), which is the maximum cost for fully vaccinating one girl at which routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination is cost-beneficial or cost-effective.

RESULTS

As vaccine uptake increased, TVC decreased (i.e., economically more stringent) in the CBA but increased in the CEA. When vaccine uptake was 75% and the vaccine provided only 20 years of protection, the TVC was US$444 ($373-506) and $689 ($646-734) in the CBA and CEA, respectively, increasing by approximately 2-4% if vaccine protection was assumed lifelong. TVC is likely to be far higher when non-cervical diseases are included. The inferred sexual mixing parameters suggest that sexual mixing in Hong Kong is highly assortative by both age and sexual activity level.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old females is highly likely to be cost-beneficial and cost-effective in Hong Kong. Inference of sexual mixing parameters from epidemiologic data of prevalent sexually transmitted diseases (i.e., HPV, chlamydia, etc.) is a potentially fruitful but largely untapped methodology for understanding sexual behaviors in the population.

Can Human Papillomavirus DNA Self-sampling be an Acceptable and Reliable Option for Cervical Cancer Screening in Female Sex Workers?

BACKGROUND

The causal relation between human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer has enabled HPV self-sampling to be envisaged as a possible screening method.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to explore the acceptability and reliability of HPV DNA self-sampling as an alternative option for cervical screening among female sex workers.

METHODS

Sixty-eight participants carried out self-sampling for HPV testing, gave a clinician-obtained sample for HPV testing, and a Papanicolaou test. After the samplings, the participants were questioned on the acceptability of the tests.

RESULTS

Most participants (65.6%) preferred to adopt HPV DNA self-sampling in the future; in particular, those without previous experience of Papanicolaou tests marginally significantly preferred self-sampling (86.7%, P = .055). The overall crude agreement in HPV detection rates between clinician and HPV DNA self-sampling was 85.3% (58/68), with a κ of 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.87). The sensitivity and specificity of self-collected samples were 66.7% and 66.1%, respectively, and the positive and negative predicted values were 24.0% and 92.5%, respectively. The prevalence of HPV was slightly higher in self-collected samples (39.7%, 27/68) than in clinician-collected samples (36.8%, 25/68). The participants expressed positive attitudes toward self-sampling but were less confident in their skills of self-sampling compared with clinicians (70.6% versus 91.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings showed that self-sampling could be incorporated into current cervical cancer screening approaches.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Self-sampling could potentially increase compliance to cervical cancer screening and thus reduce the morbidity and mortality from cervical cancer. Further research and education on self-sampling will be required for women of diverse backgrounds.

Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer

Background

Although new human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can occur at all ages, the age at which women acquire their "causal" HPV infection that develops into cervical cancer is poorly understood and practically unobservable. We aimed to estimate the age distribution at which individuals acquired their causal HPV infection in the absence of HPV vaccination or screening to help guide the optimal use of both.

Methods

Using an empirically calibrated mathematical model that simulates the natural history of cervical cancer, we estimated the cumulative number of causal HPV infections by age, stratified by HPV genotype (HPV16 vs. other HPV genotypes), and the direct age-specific reduction in cancer incidence for alternative vaccination initiation scenarios (i.e., age 9-45 years).

Results

Our model projected that among all cervical cancers, 50% and 75% of women acquired their causal HPV infection by ages 20.6 (range: 20.1-21.1) and 30.6 (range: 29.6-31.6) years, respectively. HPV16 infections were acquired at an earlier age. Assuming 95% efficacy against HPV16 and HPV18 infections, the direct reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer varied from 55% (53-56%) among women vaccinated at age 9 years to 6% (range: 6-7%) among women vaccinated at age 45 years. Similar patterns were observed for the second-generation vaccine.

Conclusions

Although new HPV infections and precancers can occur throughout a woman's lifetime, only a small proportion are acquired in mid-adult women and are vaccine-preventable. Our simulations highlight the potential limitations of using surrogate endpoints for vaccine efficacy studies of mid-adult women to guide policy decisions for implementation.

Outcomes in Women With Cytology Showing Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance With vs Without Human Papillomavirus Testing

IMPORTANCE

Little is known about the long-term yield of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and the influence on biopsy and treatment rates of human papillomavirus (HPV) triage of cytology showing atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (hereafter ASC-US cytology).

OBJECTIVE

To examine 5-year outcomes after ASC-US cytology with vs without HPV testing.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this observational study, all cervical cytology and HPV testing reports from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2012, were obtained for women throughout New Mexico and linked to pathology reports. The dates of the analysis were May 4, 2015, to January 13, 2017.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Influence of HPV testing on disease yield, time to histologically confirmed disease, and biopsy or loop electrosurgical excision procedure rates.

RESULTS

A total of 457 317 women (mean [SD] age, 39.8 [12.5] years) with a screening test were recorded between 2008 and 2012, and 20 677 (4.5%) of the first cytology results per woman were reported as ASC-US. CIN grade 3 or more severe (CIN3+) lesions were detected in 2.49% of women with HPV testing vs 2.15% of women without HPV testing (P = .23). Time to CIN3+ detection was much shorter in those with HPV testing vs those without testing (median, 103 vs 393 days; P < .001). CIN grade 1 was detected in 11.6% of women with HPV testing vs 6.6% without testing (relative risk, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.56-2.00; P < .001). Loop electrosurgical excision procedure rates within 5 years were 20.0% higher in those who underwent HPV testing, resulting in more CIN2+ and CIN3+ detection.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Human papillomavirus testing led to faster and more complete diagnosis of cervical disease, but 55.8% more biopsies and 20.0% more loop electrosurgical excision procedures were performed. In those tested, virtually all high-grade disease occurred in the 43.1% of women who were HPV positive, allowing clinical resources to be focused on women who need them most. These data provide essential information for cervical screening guidelines and public health policy.

Choosing wisely: a model-based analysis evaluating the trade-offs in cancer benefit and diagnostic referrals among alternative HPV testing strategies in Norway

Background:

Forthcoming cervical cancer screening strategies involving human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women not vaccinated against HPV infections may increase colposcopy referral rates. We quantified health and resource trade-offs associated with alternative HPV-based algorithms to inform decision-makers when choosing between candidate algorithms.

Methods:

We used a mathematical simulation model of HPV-induced cervical carcinogenesis in Norway. We compared the current cytology-based strategy to alternative strategies that varied by the switching age to primary HPV testing (ages 25–34 years), the routine screening frequency (every 3–10 years), and management of HPV-positive, cytology-negative women. Model outcomes included reductions in lifetime cervical cancer risk, relative colposcopy rates, and colposcopy rates per cervical cancer prevented.

Results:

The age of switching to primary HPV testing and the screening frequency had the largest impacts on cancer risk reductions, which ranged from 90.9% to 96.3% compared to no screening. In contrast, increasing the follow-up intensity of HPV-positive, cytology-negative women provided only minor improvements in cancer benefits, but generally required considerably higher rates of colposcopy referrals compared to current levels, resulting in less efficient cervical cancer prevention.

Conclusions:

We found that in order to maximise cancer benefits HPV-based screening among unvaccinated women should not be delayed: rather, policy makers should utilise the triage mechanism to control colposcopy referrals.

Cervical Cancer Screening

Cervical cancer screening in the United States has accompanied profound decreases in cancer incidence and mortality over the last half century. Two screening strategies are currently endorsed by US-based guideline groups: (1) triennial cytology for women aged 21 to 65 years, and (2) triennial cytology for women aged 21 to 29 years followed by cytology plus testing for high-risk human papillomavirus types every 5 years for women aged 30 years and older. Providing women with affordable, easily accessible screening, follow-up of abnormal tests, and timely treatment will result in the greatest impact of screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality.

Health-related quality of life as measured by the EQ-5D in the prevention, screening and management of cervical disease: A systematic review

PURPOSE

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of screening can be highly sensitive to the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) effects of screen tests and subsequent treatment. Accordingly, accurate assessment of HRQoL is essential. We reviewed the literature regarding HRQoL in cervical prevention and management in order to appraise the current evidence regarding this important input to CEA.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE, Scopus and EconLit databases for studies that estimated HRQoL in cervical cancer prevention and management published January 1995-December 2015. The primary inclusion criterion was for studies that assess HRQoL using the EQ-5D. Data were abstracted from eligible studies on setting, elicitation group, sample size, elicitation instruments, health state valuations, study design and follow-up. We assessed the quality and comparability of the studies with a particular focus on the HRQoL reported across states and groups.

RESULTS

Fifteen papers met the inclusion criteria. Most used patient elicitation groups (n = 11), 2 used the general public and 2 used a mix of both. Eight studies were cross-sectional and seven were longitudinal. Six studies used both the EQ-5D-3L and the EQ-VAS together with other measures of overall HRQoL or condition-specific instruments. Extensive heterogeneity was observed across study characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results reveal the challenges of sourcing reliable estimates of HRQoL for use in CEAs of cervical cancer prevention and treatment. The EQ-5D appears insufficiently sensitive for some health states. A more general problem is the paucity of HRQoL estimates for many health states and their change over time.

Acceptability and Feasibility of Human Papilloma Virus Self-Sampling for Cervical Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVES

Women in safety-net institutions are less likely to receive cervical cancer screening. Human papilloma virus (HPV) self-sampling is an alternative method of cervical cancer screening. We examine the acceptability and feasibility of HPV self-sampling among patients and clinic staff in two safety-net clinics in Miami.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Haitian and Latina women aged 30-65 years with no Pap smear in the past 3 years were recruited. Women were offered HPV self-sampling or traditional Pap smear screening. The acceptability of HPV self-sampling among patients and clinic staff was assessed. If traditional screening was preferred the medical record was reviewed.

RESULTS

A total of 180 women were recruited (134 Latinas and 46 Haitian). HPV self-sampling was selected by 67% women. Among those selecting traditional screening, 22% were not screened 5 months postrecruitment. Over 80% of women agreed HPV self-sampling was faster, more private, easy to use, and would prefer to use again. Among clinic staff, 80% agreed they would be willing to incorporate HPV self-sampling into practice.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV self-sampling was both acceptable and feasible to participants and clinic staff and may help overcome barriers to screening.

Cost-effective management of women with minor cervical lesions: Revisiting the application of HPV DNA testing

BACKGROUND

Lack of consensus in management guidelines for women with minor cervical lesions, coupled with novel screening approaches, such as human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping, necessitate revisiting prevention policies. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness and resource trade-offs of alternative triage strategies to inform cervical cancer prevention in Norway.

METHODS

We used a decision-analytic model to compare the lifetime health and economic consequences associated with ten novel candidate approaches to triage women with minor cervical lesions. Candidate strategies varied by: 1) the triage test(s): HPV testing in combination with cytology, HPV testing alone with or without genotyping for HPV-16 and -18, and immediate colposcopy, and 2) the length of time between index and triage testing (i.e., 6, 12 or 18months). Model outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime societal costs, and resource use (e.g., colposcopy referrals).

RESULTS

The current Norwegian guidelines were less effective and more costly than candidate strategies. Given a commonly-cited willingness-to-pay threshold in Norway of $100,000 per QALY gained, the preferred strategy involved HPV genotyping with immediate colposcopy referral for HPV-16 or -18 positive and repeat HPV testing at 12months for non-HPV-16 or -18 positive ($78,010 per QALY gained). Differences in health benefits among candidate strategies were small, while resource use varied substantially. More effective strategies required a moderate increase in colposcopy referrals (e.g., a 9% increase for the preferred strategy) compared with current levels.

CONCLUSION

New applications of HPV testing may improve management of women with minor cervical lesions, yet are accompanied by a trade-off of increased follow-up procedures.

Racial and ethnic disparities in human papillomavirus-associated cancer burden with first-generation and second-generation human papillomavirus vaccines

BACKGROUND

In the United States, the burden of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers varies by racial/ethnic group. HPV vaccination may provide opportunities for primary prevention of these cancers. Herein, the authors projected changes in HPV-associated cancer burden among racial/ethnic groups under various coverage assumptions with the available first-generation and second-generation HPV vaccines to evaluate changes in racial/ethnic disparities.

METHODS

Cancer-specific mathematical models simulated the burden of 6 HPV-associated cancers. Model parameters, informed using national registries and epidemiological studies, reflected sex-specific, age-specific, and racial/ethnic-specific heterogeneities in HPV type distribution, cancer incidence, stage of disease at detection, and mortality. Model outcomes included the cumulative lifetime risks of developing and dying of 6 HPV-associated cancers. The level of racial/ethnic disparities was evaluated under each alternative HPV vaccine scenario using several metrics of social group disparity.

RESULTS

HPV vaccination is expected to reduce the risks of developing and dying of HPV-associated cancers in all racial/ethnic groups as well as reduce the absolute degree of disparities. However, alternative metrics suggested that relative disparities would persist and in some scenarios worsen. For example, when assuming high uptake with the second-generation HPV vaccine, the lifetime risk of dying of an HPV-associated cancer for males decreased by approximately 60%, yet the relative disparity increased from 3.0 to 3.9.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV vaccines are expected to reduce the overall burden of HPV-associated cancers for all racial/ethnic groups and to reduce the absolute disparity gap. However, even with the second-generation vaccine, relative disparities will likely still exist and may widen if the underlying causes of these disparities remain unaddressed. Cancer 2016;122:2057-66. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Beware of Kinked Frontiers: A Systematic Review of the Choice of Comparator Strategies in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Human Papillomavirus Testing in Cervical Screening

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the choice of comparator strategies in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of human papillomavirus testing in cervical screening.

METHODS

The PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and Scopus databases were searched to identify eligible model-based CEAs of cervical screening programs using human papillomavirus testing. The eligible CEAs were reviewed to investigate what screening strategies were chosen for analysis and how this choice might have influenced estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Selected examples from the reviewed studies are presented to illustrate how the omission of relevant comparators might influence estimates of screening cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The search identified 30 eligible CEAs. The omission of relevant comparator strategies appears likely in 18 studies. The ICER estimates in these cases are probably lower than would be estimated had more comparators been included. Five of the 30 studies restricted relevant comparator strategies to sensitivity analyses or other subanalyses not part of the principal base-case analysis. Such exclusion of relevant strategies from the base-case analysis can result in cost-ineffective strategies being identified as cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Many of the CEAs reviewed appear to include insufficient comparator strategies. In particular, they omit strategies with relatively long screening intervals. Omitting relevant comparators matters particularly if it leads to the underestimation of ICERs for strategies around the cost-effectiveness threshold because these strategies are the most policy relevant from the CEA perspective. Consequently, such CEAs may not be providing the best possible policy guidance and lead to the mistaken adoption of cost-ineffective screening strategies.

Automated 3-dimensional morphologic analysis of sputum specimens for lung cancer detection: Performance characteristics support use in lung cancer screening

BACKGROUND

The LuCED Lung Test comprises an automated 3-dimensional morphologic analysis of epithelial cells in sputum. For each cell, 594 morphology-based features are measured to drive algorithmic classifiers that quantitatively assess whether neoplastic cells are present. The current interim clinical study involves sputum samples from patients with known benign and malignant outcomes to assess the feasibility of LuCED as an adjunctive test after suspicious low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) results or as an independent screening test for lung cancer.

METHODS

Sputum samples were fixed, enriched for epithelial cells, and analyzed with a 3-dimensional cell scanner called Cell-CT. Candidate abnormal cells were identified by the classifiers for manual review. The sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values were calculated for the detection of neoplastic cases.

RESULTS

A total of 91 sputum samples from patients with confirmed lung cancer (49 patients) and patients with no known malignancy (42 patients) were evaluated. After cytology review, sensitivity in the positive group was 91.8%, and specificity was 95.2%. Specificity was not 100% because there were 2 cases in which abnormal cells were identified by the Cell-CT that were confirmed as such at the time of manual cytology review. However, at the time of last follow-up, malignancy had not been detected in these 2 cases. Modeling in a population with a 1% prevalence of lung cancer, the positive and negative predictive values would be 95.4% and 99.9%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LuCED testing is highly sensitive and specific for the detection of lung cancer and has potential value as an adjunctive test after suspicious LDCT findings or as a primary screening test in which LuCED-positive cases would be triaged to diagnostic CT. Further prospective studies currently are underway to evaluate its full usefulness.

Cervical Cancer Screening in Average-Risk Women: Best Practice Advice From the Clinical Guidelines Committee of the American College of Physicians

DESCRIPTION

The purpose of this best practice advice article is to describe the indications for screening for cervical cancer in asymptomatic, average-risk women aged 21 years or older.

METHODS

The evidence reviewed in this work is a distillation of relevant publications (including systematic reviews) used to support current guidelines.

BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 1

Clinicians should not screen average-risk women younger than 21 years for cervical cancer.

BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 2

Clinicians should start screening average-risk women for cervical cancer at age 21 years once every 3 years with cytology (cytologic tests without human papillomavirus [HPV] tests).

BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 3

Clinicians should not screen average-risk women for cervical cancer with cytology more often than once every 3 years.

BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 4

Clinicians may use a combination of cytology and HPV testing once every 5 years in average-risk women aged 30 years or older who prefer screening less often than every 3 years.

BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 5

Clinicians should not perform HPV testing in average-risk women younger than 30 years.

BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 6

Clinicians should stop screening average-risk women older than 65 years for cervical cancer if they have had 3 consecutive negative cytology results or 2 consecutive negative cytology plus HPV test results within 10 years, with the most recent test performed within 5 years.

BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 7

Clinicians should not screen average-risk women of any age for cervical cancer if they have had a hysterectomy with removal of the cervix.

Impact of age on the false negative rate of human papillomavirus DNA test in patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance

Objective

Human papillomavirus (HPV) test was incorporated into the triage of lesser abnormal cervical cytologies: atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This study aimed to evaluate the impact of age on the efficacy of HPV testing in patients with lesser abnormal cervical cytologies.

Methods

A total of 439 patients with ASCUS or LSIL were included. The association between age groups and the diagnostic performances of HPV test for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) was evaluated.

Results

Median age was 44 years (range, 17 to 75 years). ASCUS was more frequently observed in older patients while LSIL was more common in younger patients (P=0.002). CIN2+ was found in 11.3% (32/284) of the ASCUS patients and 12.9% (20/155) of patients with LSIL. Older patients with ASCUS showed lower HPV infection rates (P=0.025), but not LSIL (P=0.114). However, the prevalence of CIN2+ was similar between the age groups with ASCUS or LSIL. In patients with ASCUS, the false negative rate of HPV test for CIN2+ was 6.2%. The false negative rate of the HPV test became higher with increasing of the age after the age of 50 (P=0.034).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that false negative rate of the HPV test for CIN2+ in ASCUS patients older than 50 years might become higher with increasing of the age. Negative HPV results in patients of the age >50 years with ASCUS should be carefully interpreted.

Impact of the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program on cervical cancer mortality among uninsured low-income women in the U.S., 1991-2007

BACKGROUND

The benefits of the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) on cervical cancer screening for participating uninsured low-income women have never been measured.

PURPOSE

To estimate the benefits in life-years (LYs) gained; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained; and deaths averted.

METHODS

A cervical cancer simulation model was constructed based on an existing cohort model. The model was applied to NBCCEDP participants aged 18-64 years. Screening habits for uninsured low-income women were estimated using National Health Interview Survey data from 1990 to 2005 and NBCCEDP data from 1991 to 2007. The study was conducted during 2011-2012 and covered all 68 NBCCEDP grantees in 50 states, the District of Columbia, five U.S. territories, and 12 tribal organizations. Separate simulations were performed for the following three scenarios: (1) women who received NBCCEDP (Program) screening; (2) women who received screening without the program (No Program); and (3) women who received no screening (No Screening).

RESULTS

Among 1.8 million women screened in 1991-2007, the Program added 10,369 LYs gained compared to No Program, and 101,509 LYs gained compared to No Screening. The Program prevented 325 women from dying of cervical cancer relative to No Program, and 3,829 relative to No Screening. During this time period, the Program accounted for 15,589 QALYs gained when compared with No Program, and 121,529 QALYs gained when compared with No Screening.

CONCLUSIONS

These estimates suggest that NBCCEDP cervical cancer screening has reduced mortality among medically underserved low-income women who participated in the program.

An updated natural history model of cervical cancer: derivation of model parameters

Mathematical models of cervical cancer have been widely used to evaluate the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive strategies. Major advances in the understanding of cervical carcinogenesis motivate the creation of a new disease paradigm in such models. To keep pace with the most recent evidence, we updated a previously developed microsimulation model of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer to reflect 1) a shift towards health states based on HPV rather than poorly reproducible histological diagnoses and 2) HPV clearance and progression to precancer as a function of infection duration and genotype, as derived from the control arm of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (2004-2010). The model was calibrated leveraging empirical data from the New Mexico Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry (1980-1999) and a state-of-the-art cervical cancer screening registry in New Mexico (2007-2009). The calibrated model had good correspondence with data on genotype- and age-specific HPV prevalence, genotype frequency in precancer and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. We present this model in response to a call for new natural history models of cervical cancer intended for decision analysis and economic evaluation at a time when global cervical cancer prevention policy continues to evolve and evidence of the long-term health effects of cervical interventions remains critical.

Particular features of the clinical course of the papilloma viral infection depending on quantitative indices of human papilloma viruses of a high carcinogenic risk

Goal of the study. To study the dependence of the clinical course of the papilloma viral infection and cytological characteristics of lesions in the cervical mucosa on the quantitative indices of human papilloma virus (HPV). Materials and methods. The study involved 175 female patients with HPV of a high carcinogenic risk including 125 subjects with clinical forms of the papilloma viral infection (PVI) and 50 subjects with subclinical and latent forms of the disease. Laboratory tests were carried out with the use of the polymerase chain reaction including real-time PCR for the quantitative determination of HPV. Cytological examinations of scrapes from the exocervical and endocervical mucosa were carried out according to Leishman I, and the results were interpreted according to Bethesda. Results. The authors established an association between clinical forms of PVI and infection with two or more HPV genotypes, and latent and subclinical forms of the disease and infection with one HPV genotype; HPV Genotype 16 prevails within the structure of HPV of a high carcinogenic risk. It was shown that patients infected with two or more HPV genotypes as well as subjects with subclinical and latent forms of the disease underwent reliably higher viral loads than subjects with anogenital warts and patients infected with one HPV genotype only. A higher HPV viral load was also noted in case of a persisting course of PVI and in patients with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (H-SIL). Conclusion. Women with latent and subclinical forms, persistent PVI course and infected with two or more HPV genotypes of a high carcinogenic risk belong to the high-risk group developing expressed epithelial affections in the cervical mucosa. Quantitative HPV indices exceeding 5 lg of copies of HPV DNA per 100,000 cells belong to unfavorable predictors for the development of intraepithelial affections in the cervical mucosa and stipulate the need to conduct an additional examination (colposcopy or cytology) to exclude their development.

How our practice of histopathology, especially tumour pathology has changed in the last two decades: reflections from a major referral center in Pakistan

Continued advances in the field of histo-pathology (and cyto-pathology) over the past two decades have resulted in dramatic changes in the manner in which these disciplines are now practiced. This is especially true in the setting of a large university hospital where the role of pathologists as clinicians (diagnosticians), undergraduate and postgraduate educators, and researchers has evolved considerably. The world around us has changed significantly during this period bringing about a considerable change in our lifestyles and the way we live. This is the world of the internet and the world-wide web, the world of Google and Wikipedia, of Youtube and Facebook where anyone can obtain any information one desires at the push of a button. The practice of histo (and cyto) pathology has also evolved in line with these changes. For those practicing this discipline in a poor, developing country these changes have been breathtaking. This is an attempt to document these changes as experienced by histo (and cyto) pathologists practicing in the biggest center for Histopathology in Pakistan, a developing country in South Asia with a large (180 million) and ever growing population. The Section of Histopathology, Department of Pathology and Microbiology at the Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city has since its inception in the mid-1980s transformed the way histopathology is practiced in Pakistan by incorporating modern methods and rescuing histopathology in Pakistan from the primitive and outdated groove in which it was stuck for decades. It set histopathology in Pakistan firmly on the path of modernity and change which are essential for better patient management and care through accurate and complete diagnosis and more recently prognostic and predictive information as well.

American cancer society guideline for the early detection of cervical neoplasia and cancer

An update to the American Cancer Society (ACS) guideline regarding screening for the early detection of cervical neoplasia and cancer, based on recommendations from a formal review and recent workshop, is presented. The new screening recommendations address when to begin screening, when screening may be discontinued, whether to screen women who have had a hysterectomy, appropriate screening intervals, and new screening technologies, including liquid-based cytology and HPV DNA testing.

Clinical utility of HPV testing

Testing for human papilloma virus (HPV) has been shown to be more sensitive than cervical cytology in detecting both high-grade and low-grade dysplasia. When screening for cervical cancer, unfortunately, the HPV test lacks specificity and has limited its usefulness as a primary screening modality for cervical cancer. In this chapter, we will review HPV and its role in cervical cancer, the utilization of HPV testing in current practice, and the possible future utilization of HPV and its role in screening.

Comparison of cervical cancer screening strategies incorporating different combinations of cytology, HPV testing, and genotyping for HPV 16/18: results from the ATHENA HPV study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to compare 9 cervical cancer screening strategies to the current screening standard (cytology with human papillomavirus [HPV] triage of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance) for the detection of high-grade cervical disease.

STUDY DESIGN

Women (n = 34,254) aged 30 years or older from the Addressing the Need for Advanced HPV Diagnostics (ATHENA) study underwent screening with cytology and HPV testing with simultaneous HPV16/18 genotyping; those with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance cytology or greater or HPV-positive status were referred for colposcopy.

RESULTS

In general, screening strategies that offered greater sensitivity also required more referral to colposcopy. HPV testing was more sensitive than cytology for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or greater, but strategies that depended on cytology for triage of HPV-positive women decreased this sensitivity. Various strategies of cotesting with cytology increased sensitivity but did so by increasing testing. Strategies that included integrated HPV16/18 testing provided more efficient referral to colposcopy.

CONCLUSION

Strategies that maximize detection of women at greatest risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or greater by immediate referral to colposcopy, with follow-up testing of women at intermediate risk, maximize the benefits of cervical cancer screening while decreasing the potential harm. Incorporating screening with HPV and triage of HPV-positive women by a combination of genotyping for HPV16/18 and cytology provided a good balance between maximizing sensitivity (benefit) and specificity by limiting the number of colposcopies (potential harm).

Cost and logistics of alternative roll-out options for implementing human papillomavirus testing as a triage in cervical screening: results of the sentinel sites study

Background:

Previous studies have indicated that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing as a triage for managing equivocal cytology is cost-effective. The aim of this study was to assess the costs of alternative roll-out options.

Methods:

Detailed cost estimates were collected from six laboratories where HPV triage had been implemented. Costs were assessed for the two different service delivery models that were implemented; a ‘hub and spoke model’ of central HPV testing in a microbiology laboratory with separate cytology laboratories, and an ‘integrated model’ where HPV testing was conducted within the cytology laboratory.

Results:

Comparison of alternative delivery models indicated that setting up HPV processing within existing cytology laboratory, i.e., an ‘integrated cytology/HPV laboratory’ generated savings in staff time amounting to between £2.54 and 4.86 per sample processed. Running full HPV testing batches was also an important consideration. For full batches to be run on a twice weekly basis requires having no more than two laboratories per Strategic Health Authority.

Conclusions:

To be cost-efficient, and to meet turn-around times, HPV testing needs to be conducted at integrated cytology/HPV testing centres with sufficient throughput to run full batches of HPV tests.

Management of vaginal dryness and dyspareunia in estrogen sensitive cancer patients

Cancer patients suffer from vaginal dryness and dyspareunia earlier and longer than the general population, with more severe and distressing symptoms. Life-style advices are the first step and vaginal lubricants can be tried, but they can't completely relieve atrophic symptoms. The most effective therapy is use of vaginal estrogens, but compliance and management are particularly difficult in estrogen sensitive cancer patients because of their systemic absorption. Compliance can be improved if they are begun at a very low dose and gradually increased until the lowest effective dose is reached. Promestriene only possesses an intramucosal effect, it can be used at very low doses in cancer patients suffering from urogenital symptoms.

Cervical cancer screening in the United States and the Netherlands: a tale of two countries

CONTEXT

This article compares cervical cancer screening intensity and cervical cancer mortality trends in the United States and the Netherlands to illustrate the potential of cross-national comparative studies. We discuss the lessons that can be learned from the comparison as well as the challenges in each country to effective and efficient screening.

METHODS

We used nationally representative data sources in the United States and the Netherlands to estimate the number of Pap smears and the cervical cancer mortality rate since 1950. The following questions are addressed: How do differences in intensity of Pap smear use between the countries translate into differences in mortality trends? Can population coverage rates (the proportion of eligible women who had a Pap smear within a specified period) explain the mortality trends better than the total intensity of Pap smear use?

FINDINGS

Even though three to four times more Pap smears per woman were conducted in the United States than in the Netherlands over a period of three decades, the two countries' mortality trends were quite similar. The five-year coverage rates for women aged thirty to sixty-four were quite comparable at 80 to 90 percent. Because screening in the Netherlands was limited to ages thirty to sixty, screening rates for women under thirty and over sixty were much higher in the United States. These differences had consequences for age-specific mortality trends. The relatively good coverage rate in the Netherlands can be traced back to a nationwide invitation system based on municipal population registries. While both countries followed a "policy cycle" involving evidence review, surveillance of screening practices and outcomes, clinical guidelines, and reimbursement policies, the components of this cycle were more systematically linked and implemented nationwide in the Netherlands than in the United States. To a large extent, this was facilitated by a public health model of screening in the Netherlands, rather than a medical services model.

CONCLUSIONS

Cross-country studies like ours are natural experiments that can produce insights not easily obtained from other types of study. The cervical cancer screening system in the Netherlands seems to have been as effective as the U.S. system but used much less screening. Adequate coverage of the female population at risk seems to be of central importance.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA triage of women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance with cobas 4800 HPV and Hybrid Capture 2 tests for detection of high-grade lesions of the uterine cervix

The triage of women with high-risk (HR) human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive smears for atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) to colposcopy is now an integrated option in clinical guidelines. The performance of cobas 4800 HPV and that of Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) for HR HPV DNA detection in cervical samples in PreservCyt were compared in 396 women referred to colposcopy for ASC-US. Of these, 316 did not have cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), 47 had CIN1, 29 had CIN2 or CIN3 (CIN2+), and 4 had CIN of unknown grade. HR HPV was detected in 129 (32.6%) and 149 (37.6%) samples with HC2 and cobas 4800 HPV, respectively (P = 0.15). The clinical sensitivities and specificities for detecting CIN2+ were 89.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72.8 to 97.2%) and 66.7% (95% CI, 61.7 to 71.3%) with cobas 4800 HPV and 93.1% (95% CI, 77.0 to 99.2%) and 72.2% (95% CI 67.4 to 76.5%) with HC2. The performance of cobas 4800 HPV was similar to that of HC2 for identifying women with ASC-US who would benefit the most from colposcopy.

Cost and effectiveness evaluation of prophylactic HPV vaccine in developing countries

BACKGROUND

Approximately 80% of cervical cancer cases occur in developing countries. In Thailand, cervical cancer has been the leading cancer in females, with an incidence of 24.7 cases per 100,000 individuals per year.

OBJECTIVES

We constructed a decision model to simulate the lifetime economic impact for women in the context of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection prevention. HPV-related diseases were of interest: cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and genital warts. The two strategies used were 1) current practice and 2) prophylactic quadrivalent vaccine against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18.

METHODS

We developed a Markov simulation model to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of prophylactic HPV vaccine. Women transition through a model either healthy or developing HPV or its related diseases, or die from cervical cancer or from other causes according to transitional probabilities under the Thai health-care context. Costs from a provider perspective were obtained from King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% annually.

RESULTS

Compared with no prophylactic HPV vaccine, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 160,649.50 baht per quality-adjusted life-year. The mortality rate was reduced by 54.8%. The incidence of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3, and genital warts was reduced by up to 55.1%.

CONCLUSION

Compared with commonly accepted standard thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, the nationwide coverage of HPV vaccination in girls is likely to be cost-effective in Thailand.

Policy implications of adjusting randomized trial data for economic evaluations: a demonstration from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study

BACKGROUND

Although the randomized controlled trial (RCT) is widely considered the most reliable method for evaluation of health care interventions, challenges to both internal and external validity exist. Thus, the efficacy of an intervention in a trial setting does not necessarily represent the real-world performance that decision makers seek to inform comparative effectiveness studies and economic evaluations.

METHODS

Using data from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS), we performed a simplified economic evaluation of age-based management strategies to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) among women who were referred to the study with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL). We used data from the trial itself to adjust for 1) potential lead time bias and random error that led to variation in the observed prevalence of CIN3 by study arm and 2) potential ascertainment bias among providers in the most aggressive management arm.

RESULTS

We found that using unadjusted RCT data may result in counterintuitive cost-effectiveness results when random error and/or bias are present. Following adjustment, the rank order of management strategies changed for 2 of the 3 age groups we considered.

CONCLUSIONS

Decision analysts need to examine study design, available trial data, and cost-effectiveness results closely in order to detect evidence of potential bias. Adjustment for random error and bias in RCTs may yield different policy conclusions relative to unadjusted trial data.

Using stress testing to guide primary prevention of coronary heart disease among intermediate-risk patients: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive stress testing might guide the use of aspirin and statins for primary prevention of coronary heart disease, but it is unclear if such a strategy would be cost effective.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We compared the status quo, in which the current national use of aspirin and statins was simulated, with 3 other strategies: (1) full implementation of Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, (2) a treat-all strategy in which all intermediate-risk persons received statins (men and women) and aspirin (men only), and (3) a test-and-treat strategy in which all persons with an intermediate risk of coronary heart disease underwent stress testing and those with a positive test were treated with high-intensity statins (men and women) and aspirin (men only). Healthcare costs, coronary heart disease events, and quality-adjusted life years from 2011 to 2040 were projected. Under a variety of assumptions, the treat-all strategy was the most effective and least expensive strategy. Stress electrocardiography was more effective and less expensive than other test-and-treat strategies, but it was less expensive than treat all only if statin cost exceeded $3.16/pill or if testing increased adherence from <22% to >75%. However, stress electrocardiography could be cost effective in persons initially nonadherent to the treat-all strategy if it raised their adherence to 5% and cost saving if it raised their adherence to 13%.

CONCLUSIONS

When generic high-potency statins are available, noninvasive cardiac stress testing to target preventive medications is not cost effective unless it substantially improves adherence.

Cost-effectiveness analysis for Pap smear screening and human papillomavirus DNA testing and vaccination

INTRODUCTION

As the effectiveness of cytology-based screening programme for cervical cancer in mortality reduction has reached a plateau, various preventive strategies have been considered, including intensive Pap smear screening and the supplemental use of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA test or HPV vaccination. Cost and effectiveness of these various preventive strategies are therefore of great concern for health policy makers.

OBJECTIVE

We intended to assess whether the combination of HPV DNA testing or HPV vaccination with Pap smear screening programme or the sole annual Pap smear screening is more effective and cost-effective in prevention of cervical cancer than the existing triennial Pap smear screening programme.

METHODS

A Markov decision model was constructed to compare total costs and effectiveness between different preventive strategies (including annual Pap smear, HPV DNA testing or HPV vaccination together with Pap smear screening programme) as opposed to the triennial Pap smear screening alone (the comparator). Probabilistic cost-effectiveness (C-E) analysis was adopted to plot a series of simulated incremental C-E ratios scattered over C-E plane and also to yield the acceptability curve for different comparisons of strategies. The threshold of vaccine cost and the influence of attendance rate were also investigated.

RESULTS

Compared with triennial Pap smear screening programme, most of preventive strategies cost more but gain additional life years (quadrant I of C-E plane) except HPV DNA testing with Pap smear every 5 years dominated by triennial Pap smear screening programme. The most cost-effective strategy was annual Pap smear (incremental C-E ratio = $31 698), followed by HPV DNA testing with Pap smear every 3 years ($36 627), and vaccination programme with triennial Pap smear screening ($44 688) with the corresponding cost-effective probabilities by the acceptability curve being 65.52%, 52.08% and 35.84% given the threshold of $40 000 of willingness to pay. Vaccination combined with triennial Pap smear would be as cost-effective as annual Pap smear provided the cost of vaccination was lowered to $250 per full course of injection.

CONCLUSIONS

Among various preventive strategies annual Pap smear screening programme is still the most cost-effective and additional HPV DNA testing is a cost-effective choice under a reasonable threshold of willingness to pay. Vaccination programme in combination with triennial screening would be cost-effective if vaccine cost can be greatly reduced in a large economic scale.

Economic evaluation of three populational screening strategies for cervical cancer in the county of Valles Occidental: CRICERVA clinical trial

Background

A high percentage of cervical cancer cases have not undergone cytological tests within 10 years prior to diagnosis. Different population interventions could improve coverage in the public system, although costs will also increase. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness and the costs of three types of population interventions to increase the number of female participants in the screening programmes for cancer of the cervix carried out by Primary Care in four basic health care areas.

Methods/Design

A cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed from the perspective of public health system including women from 30 to 70 years of age (n = 20,994) with incorrect screening criteria from four basic health care areas in the Valles Occidental, Barcelona, Spain. The patients will be randomly distributed into the control group and the three intervention groups (IG1: invitation letter to participate in the screening; IG2: invitation letter and informative leaflet; IG3: invitation letter, informative leaflet and a phone call reminder) and followed for three years. Clinical effectiveness will be measured by the number of HPV, epithelial lesions and cancer of cervix cases detected. The number of deaths avoided will be secondary measures of effectiveness. The temporal horizon of the analysis will be the life expectancy of the female population in the study. Costs and effectiveness will be discounted at 3%. In addition, univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis will be carried out.

Discussion

IG3 is expected to be more cost-effective intervention than IG1 and IG2, with greater detection of HPV infections, epithelial lesions and cancer than other strategies, albeit at a greater cost.

Trial Registration

Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01373723

Cost-effectiveness of a cervical screening program with human papillomavirus vaccine

Objectives: Recent introduction of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for girls in New Zealand is expected to decrease the incidence of HPV infection as well as resultant cytological abnormalities and cervical cancer. This may affect the cost-effectiveness of the national cervical screening program by reducing the incidence of lesions detected. This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of the current cervical screening policy with and without the HPV vaccine and compares these results with the cost-effectiveness of a range of other screening strategies.

Methods: A Markov state-transition model was built based on the natural history of HPV and cervical carcinogenesis. The model followed a hypothetical cohort of girls from 12 years to 85 years of age or death, through screening and treatment pathways. The model compared a “no vaccine and current screening” strategy with a selection of screening strategies with different age ranges and frequency intervals.

Results: The most cost-effective cervical screening strategy in the presence of the HPV vaccine would be screening women aged 30–60 every 5 years. Moving to this screening strategy from the base case of no vaccine and the current New Zealand strategy of screening women aged 20–69 every 3 years is predicted to have an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained of NZ$9,841 (€4,428).

Conclusions: Reducing screening intensity from 3 to 5 years as well as narrowing the screening age range for the vaccinated cohort once they reach mid-twenties is recommended. The importance of achieving a high vaccine uptake in New Zealand remains high.

High-risk human papillomavirus testing in women with ASC-US cytology: results from the ATHENA HPV study

This study evaluated the clinical performance of the cobas 4800 HPV Test (Roche Molecular Systems, Pleasanton, CA) for high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) testing with individual HPV-16/HPV-18 genotyping in women 21 years or older with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US). Women (N = 47,208) were recruited in the United States during routine screening, and liquid-based cytology and HPV testing were performed. The ASC-US prevalence was 4.1% (1,923/47,208), and 1,578 women underwent colposcopy with valid results. The cobas 4800 HPV Test demonstrated performance comparable to the Hybrid Capture 2 test (QIAGEN, Gaithersburg, MD) for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse and grade 3 or worse. HPV-16/HPV-18+ women had a greater absolute risk of CIN 2 or worse compared with pooled HR-HPV+ and HR-HPV- women (24.4%, 14.0%, and 0.8%, respectively). The cobas 4800 HPV Test is clinically validated for ASC-US triage. HPV-16/HPV-18 genotyping can identify women at highest risk for high-grade cervical disease, and this additional risk stratification may be used in formulating patient management decisions.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA triage of women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance with Amplicor HPV and Hybrid Capture 2 assays for detection of high-grade lesions of the uterine cervix

Up to 20% of women having a cytology smear showing atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and infected with high-risk human papillomavirus (HR HPV) have high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN 2/3). Results obtained with the Amplicor HPV and Hybrid Capture 2 (HC-2) assays for HR HPV DNA detection in women referred to colposcopy for an ASC-US smear were compared. Cervical samples in PreservCyt were tested for the presence of 13 HR HPV types with HC-2, with Amplicor at three cutoffs for positivity (0.2, 1.0, and 1.5 optical density units), and for 36 genotypes with the Linear Array (LA). Of 396 eligible women, 316 did not have CIN, 47 had CIN 1, 29 had CIN 2/3, and 4 had CIN of unknown grade. HR HPV was detected in 129 (32.6%) and 164 (41.4%) samples with HC-2 and Amplicor HPV (cutoff, 0.2), respectively (P = 0.01). Overall, 112 specimens were positive and 215 were negative with the HC-2 and Amplicor HPV assays (agreement of 82.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 78.5 to 86.0). The clinical sensitivity and specificity of Amplicor HPV at cutoffs of 0.2, 1.0 and 1.5 and of HC-2 for detection of CIN 2/3 were 89.7% (95% CI, 72.8 to 97.2) and 62.5% (95% CI, 57.5 to 52.4), 89.7% (95% CI, 72.8 to 97.2) and 64.5% (95% CI, 59.4 to 69.2), 89.7% (95% CI, 72.8 to 97.2) and 64.7% (95% CI, 59.7 to 69.5), and 93.1% (95% CI, 77.0 to 99.2) and 72.2% (95% CI, 67.4 to 76.5), respectively. Both HR HPV detection tests identified women with ASC-US who would benefit the most from colposcopy. Women with persistent HR HPV infection need further investigation despite a first normal colposcopy.

Economic evaluation of strategies for managing women with equivocal cytological results in Brazil

In Brazil, current management of women with screening results of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) is to offer repeat testing at 6-month intervals. Alternative management strategies that have been adopted in many high-income settings are to offer immediate colposcopy referral or to utilise human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as a triage for colposcopy referral, and to consider different strategies according to women's age. The objective of our study was to evaluate the lifetime cost effectiveness in terms of cost per years of life saved (YLS) of these alternative strategies for a middle income setting. A Markov model was developed using data from the Ludwig-McGill cohort and calibrated to independent observational datasets and local cost estimates obtained. In the base-case analysis, repeat cytology was the least costly strategy but also the least effective. Based on the WHO threshold for very cost-effective interventions, HPV triage for women above 30 years-old was the strategy with the highest probability of being cost effective. HPV triage including younger women with ASCUS results would also be a cost-effective option. Whilst there was a slight further gain in effectiveness with immediate colposcopy referral, it was also more expensive and did not appear to be cost effective. Threshold analysis indicated that an HPV test would have to be more than twice as expensive as a cytology test for HPV triage to no longer be cost effective. In conclusion, our results indicate that in middle income settings HPV triage is likely to be the optimal strategy for managing women presenting with ASC-US results.