Association of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief's Funding With Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in Kenya

Analysis of maternal and child health spillover effects in PEPFAR countries

OBJECTIVES

This study examined whether the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding had effects beyond HIV, specifically on several measures of maternal and child health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The results of previous research on the question of PEPFAR health spillovers have been inconsistent. This study, using a large, multicountry panel data set of 157 LMICs including 90 recipient countries, adds to the literature.

DESIGN

Seven indicators including child and maternal mortality, several child vaccination rates and anaemia among childbearing-age women are important population health indicators. Panel data and difference-in-differences estimators (DID) were used to estimate the impact of the PEPFAR programme from inception in 2004 to 2018 using a comparison group of 67 LMICs. Several different models of baseline (2004) covariates were used to help balance the comparison and treatment groups. Staggered DID was used to estimate impacts since all countries did not start receiving aid at PEPFAR's inception.

SETTING

All 157 LMICs from 1990 to 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

90 LMICs receiving PEPFAR aid and cohorts of those countries, including those required to submit annual country operational plans (COP), other recipient countries (non-COP), and three groupings of countries based on cumulative amount of per capita aid received (high, medium, low).

INTERVENTIONS

PEPFAR aid to combat the HIV epidemic.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Maternal mortality and child mortality rates, vaccination rates to protect children for diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus, measles, HepB3, and tetanus, and prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age.

RESULTS

Across PEPFAR recipient countries, large, favourable PEPFAR health effects were found for rates of childhood immunisation, child mortality and maternal mortality. These beneficial health effects were large and significant in all segments of PEPFAR recipient countries studied. We also found significant and favourable programme effects on the prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age in PEPFAR recipient countries receiving the most intensive financial support from the PEPFAR programme. Other recipient countries did not demonstrate significant effects on anaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that important health indicators, beyond HIV, have been consistently and favourably influenced by PEPFAR presence. Child and maternal mortality have been substantially reduced, and childhood immunisation rates increased. We also found no evidence of 'crowding out' or negative spillovers in these resource-poor countries. These findings add to the body of evidence that PEPFAR has had favourable health effects beyond HIV. The implications of these findings are that foreign aid for health in one area may have favourable health effects in other areas in recipient countries. More research is needed on the influence of the mechanisms at work that create these spillover health effects of PEPFAR.

Site-Level Comprehensiveness of Care Is Associated with Individual Clinical Retention Among Adults Living with HIV in International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS, a Global HIV Cohort Collaboration, 2000-2016

Retention in care (RIC) reduces HIV transmission and associated morbidity and mortality. We examined whether delivery of comprehensive services influenced individual RIC within the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) network. We collected site data through IeDEA assessments 1.0 (2000-2009) and 2.0 (2010-2016). Each site received a comprehensiveness score for service availability (1 = present, 0 = absent), with tallies ranging from 0 to 7. We obtained individual-level cohort data for adults with at least one visit from 2000 to 2016 at sites responding to either assessment. Person-time was recorded annually, with RIC defined as completing two visits at least 90 days apart in each calendar year. Multivariable modified Poisson regression clustered by site yielded risk ratios and predicted probabilities for individual RIC by comprehensiveness. Among 347,060 individuals in care at 122 sites with 1,619,558 person-years of follow-up, 69.8% of person-time was retained in care, varying by region from 53.8% (Asia-Pacific) to 82.7% (East Africa); RIC improved by about 2% per year from 2000 to 2016 (p = 0.012). Every site provided CD4+ count testing, and >90% of individuals received care at sites that provided combination antiretroviral therapy adherence measures, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, tuberculosis screening, HIV-related prevention, and community tracing services. In adjusted models, individuals at sites with more comprehensive services had higher probabilities of RIC (0.71, 0.74, and 0.83 for scores 5, 6, and 7, respectively; p = 0.019). Within IeDEA, greater site-level comprehensiveness of services was associated with improved individual RIC. Much work remains in exploring this relationship, which may inform HIV clinical practice and health systems planning.

Subnational estimates of factors associated with under-five mortality in Kenya: a spatio-temporal analysis, 1993-2014

BACKGROUND

To improve child survival, it is necessary to describe and understand the spatial and temporal variation of factors associated with child survival beyond national aggregates, anchored at decentralised health planning units. Therefore, we aimed to provide subnational estimates of factors associated with child survival while elucidating areas of progress, stagnation and decline in Kenya.

METHODS

Twenty household surveys and three population censuses conducted since 1989 were assembled and spatially aligned to 47 subnational Kenyan county boundaries. Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression models accounting for inadequate sample size and spatio-temporal relatedness were fitted for 43 factors at county level between 1993 and 2014.

RESULTS

Nationally, the coverage and prevalence were highly variable with 38 factors recording an improvement. The absolute percentage change (1993-2014) was heterogeneous ranging between 1% and 898%. At the county level, the estimates varied across space and over time with a majority showing improvements after 2008 which was preceded by a period of deterioration (late-1990 to early-2000). Counties in Northern Kenya were consistently observed to have lower coverage of interventions and remained disadvantaged in 2014 while areas around Central Kenya had and historically have had higher coverage across all intervention domains. Most factors in Western and South-East Kenya recorded moderate intervention coverage although having a high infection prevalence of both HIV and malaria.

CONCLUSION

The heterogeneous estimates necessitates prioritisation of the marginalised counties to achieve health equity and improve child survival uniformly across the country. Efforts are required to narrow the gap between counties across all the drivers of child survival. The generated estimates will facilitate improved benchmarking and establish a baseline for monitoring child development goals at subnational level.

Attaining 95-95-95 through Implementation Science: 15 Years of Insights and Best Practices from the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research's Implementation of the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief

The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR) supports more than 350,000 people on lifesaving HIV treatment in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda through funding from the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). Here, we review and synthesize the range of impacts WRAIR’s implementation science portfolio has had on PEPFAR service delivery for military and civilian populations since 2003. We also explore how investments in implementation science create institutional synergies within the U.S. Department of Defense, contributing to broad global health engagements and improving health outcomes for populations served. Finally, we discuss WRAIR’s contributions to PEPFAR priorities through use of data to drive and improve programming in real time in the era of HIV epidemic control and public health messaging that includes prevention, the 95-95-95 goals, and comorbidities.