Dynamic α-Fetoprotein Response and Outcomes After Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Validation of the R3-AFP model for risk prediction of HCC recurrence after liver transplantation in the SiLVER randomized clinical trial

Explant-based models for assessing HCC recurrence after liver transplantation serve as the gold standard, guiding post-liver transplantation screening and immunosuppression adjustment. Incorporating alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels into these models, such as the novel R3-AFP score, has notably enhanced risk stratification. However, validation of these models in high-evidence data is mandatory. Therefore, the aim of the present research was to validate the R3-AFP score in a randomized clinical trial. We analyzed the intention-to-treat population from the 2-arm SiLVER trial (NCT00355862), comparing calcineurin-based ([calcineurin inhibitors]-Group A) versus mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors-based (sirolimus-Group B) immunosuppression for post-liver transplantation HCC recurrence. Competing risk analysis estimated sub-hazard ratios, with testing of discriminant function and calibration. Overall, 508 patients from the intention-to-treat analysis were included (Group A, n = 256; Group B, n = 252). The R3-AFP score distribution was as follows: 42.6% low-risk (n = 216), 35.7% intermediate-risk (n = 181), 19.5% high-risk (n = 99), and 2.2% very-high-risk (n = 11) groups. The R3-AFP score effectively stratified HCC recurrence risk, with increasing risk for each stratum. Calibration of the R3-AFP model significantly outperformed other explant-based models (Milan, Up-to-7, and RETREAT), whereas discrimination power (0.75 [95% CI: 0.69; 0.81]) surpassed these models, except for the RETREAT model ( p = 0.49). Subgroup analysis showed lower discrimination power in the mammalian target of rapamycin group versus the calcineurin inhibitors group ( p = 0.048). In conclusion, the R3-AFP score accurately predicted HCC recurrence using high-quality evidence-based data, exhibiting reduced performance under mammalian target of rapamycin immunosuppression. This highlights the need for further research to evaluate surveillance schedules and adjuvant regimens.

Hepatic Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy Combined Lenvatinib and PD-1 Inhibitor Showed Improved Survival for Infiltrative Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Purpose

Lenvatinib and programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) inhibitor on infiltrative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have obtained demonstrated efficacy and still need improvement. Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) has shown promising results for advanced HCC. This study aimed to compare the efficacy of HAIC combined Lenvatinib and PD-1 inhibitor versus Lenvatinib combined PD-1 inhibitor for infiltrative HCC.

Patients and Methods

A total of 232 patients were enrolled. There were 114 patients received Lenvatinib combined PD-1 inhibitor (Len+PD-1 group) and 118 patients received HAIC combined Lenvatinib and PD-1 inhibitor (HAIC+Len+PD-1 group). Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and safety of patients were compared between the two groups by propensity score-matching (PSM).

Results

The 6-, 12-, and 24-month OS rates were 93.8%, 65.1% and 13.4% in Len+PD-1 group, and 100%, 77.3% and 32.1% in HAIC+Len+PD-1 group, respectively. The 3-, 6-, and 12-month PFS rates were 86.4%, 45.7% and 14.1% in Len+PD-1 group, and 95.1%, 59.3% and 25.9% in HAIC+Len+PD-1 group, respectively. The HAIC+Len+PD-1 group had obviously better survival than the Len+PD-1 group both in OS (P=0.002) and PFS (P=0.004). Subgroup analysis revealed that OS in patients with metastasis was improved with HAIC+Len+PD-1 treatment. Patients with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response after treatment showed better survival than the non-response. In addition, HAIC+Len+PD-1 group showed manageable adverse events (AEs).

Conclusion

Patient with infiltrative HCC, HAIC+Len+PD-1 treatment had longer OS and PFS than Len+PD-1 treatment. Early AFP response was an effective indicator of better survival and tumor response to therapy.

Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Liver Transplantation: Clinical Patterns and Hierarchy of Salvage Treatments

INTRODUCTION

The multiparametric nature of recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) still leads to uncertainty with its practical management. This study aims to characterize the main posttransplant recurrence patterns of HCC and to explore the therapeutic modalities targeting recurrence.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent LT for HCC at a single tertiary center were analyzed. The time from first recurrence to death was investigated for each site of presentation. The impact of each recurrence-targeted treatment on survival was studied.

RESULTS

Of 660 patients with HCC, any recurrence occurred in 96 (15.4%) patients with a median time to recurrence of 20.0 months (95% CI: 15.6-23.8). Patients recurred across different patters including solitary distant locations (30.8%, n = 28), liver only (24.2%, n = 22), lung (18.7%, n = 17), multi-organ disease (17.6%, n = 16), and bone (8.8%, n = 8). Multi-organ and bone recurrences had the poorest survival, while solitary distant lesions and pulmonary recurrences had the best outcomes. Each treatment modality carried a distinctive survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients recurred across 3 patterns with different prognostic implications. The benefit of each treatment option on distinct recurrence patterns appears to be influenced by the biological behavior inherent in the recurrence pattern itself.

Liver transplantation for tumor entities

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Tumor entities represent an increasing indication for liver transplantation (LT). This review addresses the most contentious indications of LT in transplant oncology.

RECENT FINDINGS

Patient selection based on tumor biology in LT for colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) demonstrated promising long-term outcomes and preserved quality of life despite high recurrence rates. In selected cases, LT for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is feasible, with acceptable survival even in high-burden cases responsive to chemotherapy. LT following a strict neoadjuvant protocol for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) resulted in long-term outcomes consistently surpassing benchmark values, and potentially outperforming liver resection.

SUMMARY

While preliminary results are promising, prospective trials are crucial to define applications in routine clinical practice. Molecular profiling and targeted therapies pave the way for personalized approaches, requiring evolving allocation systems for equitable LT access.

Early Changes in Alpha-Fetoprotein and Des-γ-Carboxy Prothrombin Are Useful Predictors of Antitumor Response to Durvalumab Plus Tremelimumab Therapy for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The relationship between antitumor response and tumor marker changes was evaluated in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with durvalumab plus tremelimumab (Dur/Tre). Forty patients were enrolled in this retrospective evaluation of treatment outcomes. According to the Response Evaluation Criteria for Solid Tumors version 1.1 at 8 weeks, the objective response (OR) rate was 25% and the disease control (DC) rate was 57.5%. The median alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ratio at 4 weeks was 0.39 in patients who achieved OR at 8 weeks (8W-OR group), significantly lower than the 1.08 in the non-8W-OR group (p = 0.0068); however, it was 1.22 in patients who did not achieve DC at 8 weeks (non-8W-DC group), significantly higher than the 0.53 in the 8W-DC group (p = 0.0006). Similarly, the median des-γ-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) ratio at 4 weeks was 0.15 in the 8W-OR group, significantly lower than the 1.46 in the non-8W-OR group (p < 0.0001); however, it was 1.23 in the non-8W-DC group, significantly higher than the 0.49 in the 8W-DC group (p = 0.0215). Early changes in tumor markers after Dur/Tre initiation were associated with antitumor response. In particular, changes in AFP and DCP at 4 weeks may offer useful biomarkers for early prediction of both response and progressive disease following Dur/Tre.

Survival benefit of living donor liver transplant for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

With the increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in both the United States and globally, the role of liver transplantation in management continues to be an area of active conversation as it is often considered the gold standard in the treatment of HCC. The use of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and the indications in the setting of malignancy, both generally and in HCC specifically, are frequently debated. In terms of both overall survival and recurrence-free survival, LDLT is at least equivalent to DDLT, especially when performed for disease within Milan criteria. Emerging and compelling evidence suggests that LDLT is superior to DDLT in treating HCC as there is a significant decrease in waitlist mortality. As the oncologic indications for liver transplantation continue to expand and the gap between organ demand and organ availability continues to worsen, high volumes centers should consider using LDLT to shrink the ever-expanding waitlist.

Combined transarterial chemoembolization and thermal ablation in candidates to liver transplantation with hepatocellular carcinoma: pathological findings and post-transplant outcome

OBJECTIVES

Evaluating the pathological response and the survival outcomes of combined thermal ablation (TA) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) as a bridge or downstaging for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) > 3 cm.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review encompassed 36 consecutive patients who underwent combined TA-TACE as bridging or downstaging before LT. Primary objectives included necrosis of the target lesion at explant pathology, post-LT overall survival (OS) and post-LT recurrence-free survival (RFS). For OS and RFS, a comparison with 170 patients subjected to TA alone for nodules <3 cm in size was also made.

RESULTS

Out of the 36 patients, 63.9% underwent TA-TACE as bridging, while 36.1% required downstaging. The average node size was 4.25 cm. All cases were discussed in a multidisciplinary tumor board to assess the best treatment for each patient. Half received radiofrequency (RF), and the other half underwent microwave (MW). All nodes underwent drug-eluting beads (DEB) TACE with epirubicin. The mean necrosis percentage was 65.9% in the RF+TACE group and 83.3% in the MW+TACE group (p-value = 0.099). OS was 100% at 1 year, 100% at 3 years and 94.7% at 5 years. RFS was 97.2% at 1 year, 94.4% at 3 years and 90% at 5 years. Despite the different sizes of the lesions, OS and RFS did not show significant differences with the cohort of patients subjected to TA alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlights the effectiveness of combined TA-TACE for HCC>3 cm, particularly for bridging and downstaging to LT, achieving OS and RFS rates significantly exceeding 80% at 1, 3 and 5 years.

Downstaging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Liver Transplantation: Current Advances in Selection Criteria and Therapeutic Options

Liver transplantation (LT) is an ideal therapeutic option for selected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The selection criteria of HCC for LT have evolved in recent decades. Downstaging therapy is a promising strategy for patients with tumor burden beyond transplant criteria to increase the chance of receiving LT and improve posttransplant survival. Downstaging therapy is also a selection tool that refines the conventional selection criteria based on tumor morphology. Recently, the success of systemic treatment, including immune checkpoint inhibitors, antiangiogenic tyrosine kinase inhibitors, and VEGF inhibitors, in advanced HCC has prompted the discussion regarding the role of systemic therapies for HCC downstaging before transplantation. In this review, we aimed to summarize the current advances in selection criteria and therapeutic options of downstaging therapy for HCC before LT.

Role of protein induced by vitamin-K absence-II in transplanted patients with HCC not producing alpha-fetoprotein

Elevated Protein Induced by Vitamin-K Absence-II (PIVKA-II) has been shown to be an adverse prognostic factor in HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). No definitive data are available about the impact of PIVKA-II concerning post-LT recurrence in patients not secreting (≤ 20 ng/mL) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). An observational retrospective study of the East-West HCC-LT consortium is reported. Between 2000 and 2019, 639 HCC patients were enrolled in 5 collaborative European and Japanese centers. To minimize the initial selection bias, an inverse probability therapy weighting method was adopted to analyze the data. In the post-inverse probability therapy weighting population, PIVKA-II (HR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.52-2.64; p < 0.001) and AFP (HR=1.82; 95% CI: 1.48-2.24; p < 0.001) were the most relevant independent risk factors for post-LT recurrence. A sub-analysis focusing only on patients who are AFP non-secreting confirmed the negative role of PIVKA-II (HR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.26-3.35; p =0.004). When categorizing the entire population into 4 groups according to the AFP levels (≤ or > 20 ng/mL) and PIVKA (≤ or > 300 mUA/mL) at the time of LT, the lowest recurrence rates were observed in the low AFP-PIVKA-II group (5-year recurrence rate = 8.0%). Conversely, the high AFP-PIVKA-II group had the worst outcome (5-year recurrence rate = 35.1%). PIVKA-II secretion is a relevant risk factor for post-LT HCC recurrence. The role of this marker is independent of the AFP status. Combining both tumor markers, especially in the setting of LT, should be of great relevance for adding information about predicting the post-LT risk of tumor recurrence and selecting these patients for transplantation.

From evidence to clinical practice: Bridging the gap of new liver cancer therapies in Latin America

The most common primary liver tumors are hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma. They constitute the sixth most common neoplasia and the third cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Although both tumors may share etiologic factors, diagnosis, prognostic factors, and treatments, they differ substantially in determining distinctive clinical management. In recent years, significant advances have been made in the management of these neoplasms, particularly in advanced stages. In this review, we focus on the most relevant diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment aspects of both, hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma, underlying their applicability in Latin America.

Longitudinal analysis of liver transplant candidates for hepatocellular carcinoma in a single center

BACKGROUND

Wailitst lost is an critical issue and we investigated the long-term effect of insufficient liver functional reserve at liver transplantation evaluation on waitlist outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Clinical data of patients with HCC waitlisted for liver transplantation were retrospectively collected from a single hospital cohort during the period from 2014 to 2021. Parameters of liver reserve, including cirrhosis, Child-Pugh grade, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, were analyzed for patient survival, after adjustment for tumor factors.

RESULTS

Of 292 eligible patients, 94.2% had cirrhosis, 55.8% had Child-Pugh grade B or C, and the median MELD score was 13.2. The median follow-up time was 2.2 years, with a dropout rate of 62.7%. Eighty-nine candidates (30.5%) eventually received liver transplant, including 67 from live donors. The estimated 1-year mortality rate reached 40.6% in 203 patients who remained on the waitlist without receiving a transplant, of whom 143 died. Most deaths were attributed to liver failure (37.1%) and cancer death (35.7%). After we adjusted for tumor confounders, including alpha fetoprotein, primary HCC stage, tumor number at evaluation, and sequential cancer treatment before and while waiting, hazard ratios (HRs) for patient survival were 1.69 (95% confidence interval, 1.18-2.41) for cirrhotic stage B or C, 1.07 (1.04-1.10) for MELD scores, and 1.14 (1.04-1.25) for tumor size at transplant evaluation. Transplantation was a protective disease modifier with adjusted HR 0.22 (0.14-0.33).

CONCLUSION

Insufficient liver functional reserve poses more risk than expected to liver transplant waitlist outcomes with HCC.

Serum alpha-fetoprotein response as a preoperative prognostic indicator in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy: a multicenter retrospective study

Background

This study evaluates the efficacy of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response as a surrogate marker for determining recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) who undergo salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimen.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study included 74 patients with uHCC and positive AFP (>20 ng/mL) at diagnosis, who underwent salvage hepatectomy after treatment with TKIs and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimens. The association between AFP response-defined as a ≥ 80% decrease in final AFP levels before salvage hepatectomy from diagnosis-and RFS post-hepatectomy was investigated.

Results

AFP responders demonstrated significantly better postoperative RFS compared to non-responders (P<0.001). The median RFS was not reached for AFP responders, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates of 81.3% and 70.8%, respectively. In contrast, AFP non-responders had a median RFS of 7.43 months, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates at 37.1% and 37.1%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified AFP response as an independent predictor of RFS. Integrating AFP response with radiologic tumor response facilitated further stratification of patients into distinct risk categories: those with radiologic remission experienced the most favorable RFS, followed by patients with partial response/stable disease and AFP response, and the least favorable RFS among patients with partial response/stable disease but without AFP response. Sensitivity analyses further confirmed the association between AFP response and improved RFS across various cutoff values and in patients with AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL at diagnosis (all P<0.05).

Conclusion

The "20-80" rule based on AFP response could be helpful for clinicians to preoperatively stratify the risk of patients undergoing salvage hepatectomy, enabling identification and management of those unlikely to benefit from this procedure.

Pushing the limits of treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We review existing and newer strategies for treatment and surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) both pre and postliver transplantation.

SUMMARY

HCC is rising in incidence and patients are often diagnosed at later stages. Consequently, there is a need for treatment strategies which include collaboration of multiple specialties. Combinations of locoregional, systemic, and surgical therapies are yielding better postliver transplantation (post-LT) outcomes for patients with HCC than previously seen. Tumor biology (tumor size, number, location, serum markers, response to therapy) can help identify patients who are at high risk for HCC recurrence posttransplantation and may expand transplant eligibility for some patients.

Insights into the history and tendency of liver transplantation for liver cancer: a bibliometric-based visual analysis

Research on liver transplantation (LT) for liver cancer has gained increasing attention. This paper has comprehensively described the current status, hotspots and trends in this field. A total of 2991 relevant articles from 1 January 1963 to 28 February 2023 were obtained from the Web of Science Core Collection. VOSviewer and CiteSpace software were utilized as bibliometric tools to analyze and visualize knowledge mapping. Between 1963 and 2023, the number of papers in the area of LT for liver cancer increased continuously. A total of 70 countries/regions, 2303 institutions and 14 840 researchers have published research articles, with the United States and China being the two most productive countries. Our bibliometric-based visual analysis revealed the expansion of LT indications for liver cancer and the prevention/treatment of cancer recurrence as ongoing research hotspots over the past decades. Meanwhile, emerging studies also focus on downstaging/bridging treatments before LT and the long-term survival of LT recipient, in particular the precise application of immunosuppressants.

Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Within and Outside Traditional Selection Criteria: A Multicentric North American Experience

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate long-term oncologic outcomes of patients post-living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) within and outside standard transplantation selection criteria and the added value of the incorporation of the New York-California (NYCA) score.

BACKGROUND

LDLT offers an opportunity to decrease the liver transplantation waitlist, reduce waitlist mortality, and expand selection criteria for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Primary adult LDLT recipients between October 1999 and August 2019 were identified from a multicenter cohort of 12 North American centers. Posttransplantation and recurrence-free survival were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

Three hundred sixty LDLTs were identified. Patients within Milan criteria (MC) at transplantation had a 1, 5, and 10-year posttransplantation survival of 90.9%, 78.5%, and 64.1% versus outside MC 90.4%, 68.6%, and 57.7% ( P = 0.20), respectively. For patients within the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, respective posttransplantation survival was 90.6%, 77.8%, and 65.0%, versus outside UCSF 92.1%, 63.8%, and 45.8% ( P = 0.08). Fifty-three (83%) patients classified as outside MC at transplantation would have been classified as either low or acceptable risk with the NYCA score. These patients had a 5-year overall survival of 72.2%. Similarly, 28(80%) patients classified as outside UCSF at transplantation would have been classified as a low or acceptable risk with a 5-year overall survival of 65.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term survival is excellent for patients with HCC undergoing LDLT within and outside selection criteria, exceeding the minimum recommended 5-year rate of 60% proposed by consensus guidelines. The NYCA categorization offers insight into identifying a substantial proportion of patients with HCC outside the MC and the UCSF criteria who still achieve similar post-LDLT outcomes as patients within the criteria.

Optimal Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Liver transplantation continues to be the optimal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Given the limited organ supply, patient selection for liver transplant must carefully balance tumor progression with risk of recurrence posttransplant. There are several pretransplant selection criteria that incorporate biomarkers as well as imaging modality to risk-stratify patients as we continue to look for the optimal transplant cutoff for patients with HCC, which should be transplant-center specific, and account for organ availability and dynamic response to locoregional therapy.

PIVKA-II combined with tumor burden score to predict long-term outcomes of AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver resection

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish a simple prognostic scoring model based on tumor burden score (TBS) and PIVKA-II to predict long-term outcomes of α-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

511 patients were divided into the training cohort (n = 305) and the validation cohort (n = 206) at a ratio of 6:4. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were established to identify cutoff values of TBS and PIVKA-II. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze survival outcomes. The multivariable Cox regression was used to identify variables independently associated with survival outcomes. The predictive performance of the TBS-PIVKA II score (TPS) model was compared with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC TNM) stage.

RESULTS

The present study established the TPS model using a simple scoring system (0, 1 for low/high TBS [cutoff value: 4.1]; 0, 1 for low/high PIVKA-II [cutoff value: 239 mAU/mL]). The TPS scoring model was divided into three levels according to the summation of TBS score and PIVKA-II score: TPS 0, TPS 1, and TPS 2. The TPS scoring model was able to stratify OS (training: p < 0.001, validation: p < 0.001) and early recurrence (training: p < 0.001; validation: p = 0.001) in the training cohort and the validation cohort. The TPS score was independently associated with OS (TPS 1 vs. 0, HR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.01-5.17; TPS 2 vs. 0, HR: 4.21, 95% CI: 2.01-8.84) and early recurrence (TPS 1 vs. 0, HR: 3.50, 95% CI: 1.71-7.16; TPS 2 vs. 0, HR: 3.79, 95% CI: 1.86-7.75) in the training cohort. The TPS scoring model outperformed BCLC stage and AJCC TNM stage in predicting OS and early recurrence in the training cohort and the validation cohort. But the TPS scoring model was unable to stratify the late recurrence in the training cohort (p = 0.872) and the validation cohort (p = 0.458).

CONCLUSIONS

The TPS model outperformed the BCLC stage and AJCC TNM stage in predicting OS and early recurrence of AFP-negative HCC patients after liver resection, which might better assist surgeons in screening AFP-negative HCC patients who may benefit from liver resection.

AFP-L3 and DCP strongly predict early hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) predicts hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplant (LT) but remains an imperfect biomarker. The role of DCP (des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin) and AFP-L3 (AFP bound to Lens culinaris agglutinin) in predicting HCC recurrence remains incompletely characterized. AFP-L3 and DCP could identify patients at high risk of post-transplant HCC recurrence and serve as liver transplant exclusion criteria to defer transplant until patients receive additional risk-reducing pre-transplant locoregional therapy.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included consecutive patients with HCC who underwent LT (within or down-staged to Milan criteria) between 2017 and 2022. Pre-transplant AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP measurements were obtained. The primary endpoint was the ability of biomarkers to predict HCC recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

This cohort included 285 patients with a median age of 67 (IQR 63-71). At LT, median biomarker values were AFP 5.0 ng/ml (IQR 3.0-12.1), AFP-L3 6.7% (0.5-13.2), and DCP 1.0 ng/ml (0.3-2.8). Most (94.7%) patients received pre-LT locoregional therapy. After a median post-LT follow-up of 3.1 years, HCC recurrence was observed in 18 (6.3%) patients. AFP-L3 and DCP outperformed AFP with C-statistics of 0.81 and 0.86 respectively, compared with 0.74 for AFP. A dual-biomarker combination of AFP-L3 ≥15% and DCP ≥7.5 predicted 61.1% of HCC recurrences, whereas HCC only recurred in 7 of 265 (2.6%) patients not meeting this threshold. The Kaplan-Meier recurrence-free survival rate at 3 years post-LT was 43.7% for patients with dual-positive biomarkers compared to 97.0% for all others (p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Dual-positivity for AFP-L3 ≥15% and DCP ≥7.5 strongly predicted post-LT HCC recurrence. This model could refine LT selection criteria and identify high-risk patients who require additional locoregional therapy prior to LT.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is used to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplant, but it remains an imperfect biomarker. In this prospective study, the biomarkers DCP (des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin) and AFP-L3 (AFP bound to Lens culinaris agglutinin) strongly predicted early HCC recurrence and outperformed AFP. A dual-biomarker combination of AFP-L3 ≥15% and DCP ≥7.5 predicted the majority of recurrences and could be used to further refine liver transplant eligibility criteria.

Global trends in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology: implications for screening, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates are increasing globally, and particularly in the Western world. Cirrhosis remains the predominant risk factor for HCC. However, epidemiological shifts in the incidence of HCC from patients with virus-related liver disease to those with non-viral aetiologies, including alcohol-associated and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, have important implications for prevention, surveillance and treatment. Hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapy for hepatitis B and C are effective for primary prevention of virus-related HCCs, but chemoprevention strategies for non-viral liver disease remain an unmet need. Emerging data suggest associations between aspirin, statins, metformin and coffee and reduced HCC incidence, although none has been proved to be causally related. Secondary prevention of HCC via semi-annual surveillance is associated with improvements in early detection and thus reduced mortality; however, current tools, including abdominal ultrasonography, have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of early stage HCC, particularly in patients with obesity and/or non-viral liver disease. Promising blood-based or imaging-based surveillance strategies are emerging, although these approaches require further validation before adoption in clinical practice. In the interim, efforts should be focused on maximizing use of the existing surveillance tools given their prevalent underuse globally. Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of HCC, including expanded eligibility for surgical therapies, improved patient selection for locoregional treatments and increased systemic treatment options, including immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we discuss trends in the epidemiology of HCC and their implications for screening, prevention and therapy.

Benefit and harm of waiting time in liver transplantation for HCC

Liver transplantation is the most successful treatment for limited-stage HCC. The waiting time for liver transplantation (LT) can be a critical factor affecting the oncological prognosis and outcome of patients with HCC. Efficient strategies to optimize waiting time are essential to maximize the benefits of LT and to reduce the harm of delay in transplantation. The ever-increasing demand for donor livers emphasizes the need to improve the organization of the waiting list for transplantation and to optimize organ availability for patients with and without HCC. Current progress in innovations to expand the donor pool includes the implementation of living donor LT and the use of grafts from extended donors. By expanding selection criteria, an increased number of patients are eligible for transplantation, which necessitates criteria to prevent futile transplantations. Thus, the selection criteria for LT have evolved to include not only tumor characteristics but biomarkers as well. Enhancing our understanding of HCC tumor biology through the analysis of subtypes and molecular genetics holds significant promise in advancing the personalized approach for patients. In this review, the effect of waiting time duration on outcome in patients with HCC enlisted for LT is discussed.

AFP-L3 and DCP are superior to AFP in predicting waitlist dropout in HCC patients: Results of a prospective study

In patients with HCC awaiting liver transplantation (LT), there is a need to identify biomarkers that are superior to AFP in predicting prognosis. AFP-L3 and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) play a role in HCC detection, but their ability to predict waitlist dropout is unknown. In this prospective single-center study commenced in July 2017, 267 HCC patients had all 3 biomarkers obtained at LT listing. Among them, 96.2% received local-regional therapy, and 18.8% had an initial tumor stage beyond Milan criteria requiring tumor downstaging. At listing, median AFP was 7.0 ng/mL (IQR 3.4-21.5), median AFP-L3 was 7.1% (IQR 0.5-12.5), and median DCP was 1.0 ng/mL (IQR 0.2-3.8). After a median follow-up of 19.3 months, 63 (23.6%) experienced waitlist dropout, while 145 (54.3%) received LT, and 59 (22.1%) were still awaiting LT. Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, AFP-L3≥35% and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL were associated with increased waitlist dropout, whereas AFP at all tested cutoffs, including ≥20,≥ 100, and≥250 ng/mL was not. In a multivariable model, AFP-L3≥35% (HR 2.25, p =0.04) and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL (HR 2.20, p =0.02) remained associated with waitlist dropout as did time from HCC diagnosis to listing ≥ 1 year and increasing MELD-Na score. Kaplan-Meier probability of waitlist dropout within 2 years was 21.8% in those with AFP-L3<35% and DCP<7.5 ng/mL, 59.9% with either AFP-L3 or DCP elevated, and 100% for those with both elevated ( p <0.001). In this prospective study, listing AFP-L3% and DCP were superior to AFP in predicting waitlist dropout with the combination of AFP-L3≥35% and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL associated with a 100% risk of waitlist dropout, thus clearly adding prognostic value to AFP alone.

STE20-type kinases MST3 and MST4 promote the progression of hepatocellular carcinoma: Evidence from human cell culture and expression profiling of liver biopsies

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most fatal and fastest growing malignancies. Recently, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), characterized by liver steatosis, inflammation, cell injury (hepatocyte ballooning), and different stages of fibrosis, has emerged as a major catalyst for HCC. Because the STE20-type kinases, MST3 and MST4, have been described as critical molecular regulators of NASH pathophysiology, we here focused on determining the relevance of these proteins in human HCC. By analyzing public datasets and in-house cohorts, we found that hepatic MST3 and MST4 expression was positively correlated with the incidence and severity of HCC. We also found that the silencing of both MST3 and MST4, but also either of them individually, markedly suppressed the tumorigenesis of human HCC cells including attenuated proliferation, migration, invasion, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition. Mechanistic investigations revealed lower activation of STAT3 signaling in MST3/MST4-deficient hepatocytes and identified GOLGA2 and STRIPAK complex as the binding partners of both MST3 and MST4. These findings reveal that MST3 and MST4 play a critical role in promoting the progression of HCC and suggest that targeting these kinases may provide a novel strategy for the treatment of liver cancer.

Breakthroughs in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Therapies

Several breakthroughs in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) therapy across tumor stages provide hope to improve its dismal prognosis. Although surgical and local ablative therapies have few significant changes in technique, an improved understanding of tumor biology has facilitated increase numbers of patients who are now eligible to undergo curative-intent procedures. Most notably, acceptable post-transplant outcomes can be achieved in well selected patients whose tumors are downstaged into Milan Criteria. Adjuvant therapy in patients at high risk of recurrence also significantly improves recurrence-free survival after resection or ablation. For patients with liver-localized disease who are not eligible for curative-intent procedures, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) was historically the treatment modality of choice, regardless of tumor burden; however, there is now increased recognition of patients who are "TACE unsuitable" and may be better treated with systemic therapy. The greatest evolution in HCC treatment options has occurred with systemic therapy, where several new agents are now available in the first- and second-line setting, including immune checkpoint inhibitor combinations. Objective responses are observed in approximately 30% of patients and median survival is approaching 2 years. The availability of immune checkpoint inhibitors has renewed interest in combination therapies for earlier tumor stages, with several phase III trials ongoing. Considering increasing complexities of HCC care, requiring decisions between therapies delivered by different providers, multidisciplinary care is critical and is associated with improved clinical outcomes. In this review, we detail major breakthroughs in HCC therapy, how these breakthroughs can be applied in clinical practice, and remaining areas in need of further research.

Development and validation of a REcurrent Liver cAncer Prediction ScorE (RELAPSE) following liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of the US Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium

HCC recurrence following liver transplantation (LT) is highly morbid and occurs despite strict patient selection criteria. Individualized prediction of post-LT HCC recurrence risk remains an important need. Clinico-radiologic and pathologic data of 4981 patients with HCC undergoing LT from the US Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium (UMHTC) were analyzed to develop a REcurrent Liver cAncer Prediction ScorE (RELAPSE). Multivariable Fine and Gray competing risk analysis and machine learning algorithms (Random Survival Forest and Classification and Regression Tree models) identified variables to model HCC recurrence. RELAPSE was externally validated in 1160 HCC LT recipients from the European Hepatocellular Cancer Liver Transplant study group. Of 4981 UMHTC patients with HCC undergoing LT, 71.9% were within Milan criteria, 16.1% were initially beyond Milan criteria with 9.4% downstaged before LT, and 12.0% had incidental HCC on explant pathology. Overall and recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 89.7%, 78.6%, and 69.8% and 86.8%, 74.9%, and 66.7%, respectively, with a 5-year incidence of HCC recurrence of 12.5% (median 16 months) and non-HCC mortality of 20.8%. A multivariable model identified maximum alpha-fetoprotein (HR = 1.35 per-log SD, 95% CI,1.22-1.50, p < 0.001), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (HR = 1.16 per-log SD, 95% CI,1.04-1.28, p < 0.006), pathologic maximum tumor diameter (HR = 1.53 per-log SD, 95% CI, 1.35-1.73, p < 0.001), microvascular (HR = 2.37, 95%-CI, 1.87-2.99, p < 0.001) and macrovascular (HR = 3.38, 95% CI, 2.41-4.75, p < 0.001) invasion, and tumor differentiation (moderate HR = 1.75, 95% CI, 1.29-2.37, p < 0.001; poor HR = 2.62, 95% CI, 1.54-3.32, p < 0.001) as independent variables predicting post-LT HCC recurrence (C-statistic = 0.78). Machine learning algorithms incorporating additional covariates improved prediction of recurrence (Random Survival Forest C-statistic = 0.81). Despite significant differences in European Hepatocellular Cancer Liver Transplant recipient radiologic, treatment, and pathologic characteristics, external validation of RELAPSE demonstrated consistent 2- and 5-year recurrence risk discrimination (AUCs 0.77 and 0.75, respectively). We developed and externally validated a RELAPSE score that accurately discriminates post-LT HCC recurrence risk and may allow for individualized post-LT surveillance, immunosuppression modification, and selection of high-risk patients for adjuvant therapies.

Impact of Hypothermic Oxygenated Machine Perfusion on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Machine perfusion may be able to mitigate ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI), which increases hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT). This study aimed to investigate the impact of dual-hypothermic oxygenated machine perfusion (D-HOPE) on HCC recurrence in LT.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective study was conducted from 2016 to 2020. Pre- and postoperative data of HCC patients undergoing LT were analyzed. Recipients of a D-HOPE-treated graft were compared to those of livers preserved using static cold storage (SCS). The primary endpoint was recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

Of 326 patients, 246 received an SCS-preserved liver and 80 received a D-HOPE-treated graft (donation after brain death (DBD), n = 66; donation after circulatory death (DCD), n = 14). Donors of D-HOPE-treated grafts were older and had higher BMI. All DCD donors were treated by normothermic regional perfusion and D-HOPE. The groups were comparable in terms of HCC features and estimated 5-year RFS according to the Metroticket 2.0 model. D-HOPE did not reduce HCC recurrence (D-HOPE 10%; SCS 8.9%; p = 0.95), which was confirmed using Bayesian model averaging and inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted RFS analysis. Postoperative outcomes were comparable between groups, except for lower AST and ALT peak in the D-HOPE group.

CONCLUSIONS

In this single-center study, D-HOPE did not reduce HCC recurrence but allowed utilizing livers from extended criteria donors with comparable outcomes, improving access to LT for patients suffering from HCC.

AFP Response to Locoregional Therapy Can Stratify the Risk of Tumor Recurrence in HCC Patients after Living Donor Liver Transplantation

(1) Background: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been incorporated into the selection criteria of liver transplantation and been used to predict the outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence. Locoregional therapy (LRT) is recommended for bridging or downstaging in HCC patients listed for liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the AFP response to LRT on the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). (2) Methods: This retrospective study included 370 HCC LDLT recipients with pretransplant LRT from 2000 to 2016. The patients were divided into four groups according to AFP response to LRT. (3) Results: The nonresponse group had the worst 5-year cumulative recurrence rates whereas the complete-response group (patients with abnormal AFP before LRT and with normal AFP after LRT) had the best 5-year cumulative recurrence rate among the four groups. The 5-year cumulative recurrence rate of the partial-response group (AFP response was over 15% lower) was comparable to the control group. (4) Conclusions: AFP response to LRT can be used to stratify the risk of HCC recurrence after LDLT. If a partial AFP response of over 15% declineis achieved, a comparable result to the control can be expected.

Beyond Milan

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Hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most common cancers worldwide and represents a major global health-care challenge. Although viral hepatitis and alcohol remain important risk factors, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is rapidly becoming a dominant cause of hepatocellular carcinoma. A broad range of treatment options are available for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, including liver transplantation, surgical resection, percutaneous ablation, and radiation, as well as transarterial and systemic therapies. As such, clinical decision making requires a multidisciplinary team that longitudinally adapts the individual treatment strategy according to the patient's tumour stage, liver function, and performance status. With the approval of new first-line agents and second-line agents, as well as the establishment of immune checkpoint inhibitor-based therapies as standard of care, the treatment landscape of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma is more diversified than ever. Consequently, the outlook for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma has improved. However, the optimal sequencing of drugs remains to be defined, and predictive biomarkers are urgently needed to inform treatment selection. In this Seminar, we present an update on the causes, diagnosis, molecular classification, and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Alpha Fetoprotein, and Liver Allocation for Transplantation: Past, Present and Future

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation and has been the treatment of choice due to the oncologic benefit for patients with advanced chronic liver disease (AdvCLD) and small tumors for the last 25 years. For HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation, alpha fetoprotein (AFP) has increasingly been applied as an independent predictor for overall survival, disease free recurrence, and waitlist drop out. In addition to static AFP, newer studies evaluating the AFP dynamic response to downstaging therapy show enhanced prognostication compared to static AFP alone. While AFP has been utilized to select HCC patients for transplant, despite years of allocation policy changes, the US allocation system continues to take a uniform approach to HCC patients, without discriminating between those with favorable or unfavorable tumor biology. We aim to review the history of liver allocation for HCC in the US, the utility of AFP in liver transplantation, the implications of weaving AFP as a biomarker into policy. Based on this review, we encourage the US transplant community to revisit its HCC organ allocation model, to incorporate more precise oncologic principles for patient selection, and to adopt AFP dynamics to better stratify waitlist dropout risk.

Circulating biomarkers in the diagnosis and management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent and lethal causes of cancer-related death worldwide. The treatment of HCC remains challenging and is largely predicated on early diagnosis. Surveillance of high-risk groups using abdominal ultrasonography, with or without serum analysis of α-fetoprotein (AFP), can permit detection of early, potentially curable tumours, but is limited by its insensitivity. Reviewed here are two current approaches that aim to address this limitation. The first is to use old re-emerged empirically derived biomarkers such as AFP, now applied within statistical models. The second is to use circulating nucleic acid biomarkers, which include cell-free DNA (for example, circulating tumour DNA, cell-free mitochondrial DNA and cell-free viral DNA) and cell-free RNA, applying modern molecular biology-based technologies and machine learning techniques closely allied to the underlying biology of cancer. Taken together, these approaches are likely to be complementary. Both hold considerable promise for achieving earlier diagnosis as well as offering additional functionalities including improved monitoring of therapy and prediction of response thereto.

The impact of biological features for a better prediction of posttransplant hepatocellular cancer recurrence

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Morphological criteria (i.e., Milan Criteria) have been considered for a long time to be the best tool for selecting patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT). In the last ten years, a refinement of the selection criteria has been observed, with the introduction of biological tumor characteristics enabling to enlarge the number of potential transplant candidates and to select LT candidates with a lower risk of posttransplant recurrence.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several biological tumor aspects have been explored and validated in international cohorts to expand the ability to predict patients at high risk for recurrence. Alpha-fetoprotein, radiological response to locoregional treatments, and other more recently proposed markers have been principally explored. Moreover, more complex statistical approaches (i.e., deep learning) have been advocated to explore the nonlinear intercorrelations between the investigated features.

SUMMARY

The addition of biological aspects to morphology has improved the ability to discriminate among high- and low-risk patients for recurrence. New prognostic algorithms based on the more sophisticated artificial intelligence approach are further improving the capability to select LT candidates with HCC.

How important is the role of iterative liver direct surgery in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for a transplant center located in an area with a low rate of deceased donation?

Introduction

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for nearly 90% of primary liver cancers, with estimates of over 1 million people affected by 2025. We aimed to explore the impacting role of an iterative surgical treatment approach in a cohort of HCC patients within the Milan criteria, associated with clinical risk factors for tumor recurrence (RHCC) after liver transplant (LT) and loco-regional therapies (LRT), as well as liver resection (LR) and/or microwave thermal ablation (MWTA).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed our experience performed during an 8-year period between January 2013 and December 2021 in patients treated for HCC, focusing on describing the impact on preoperative end-stage liver disease severity, oncologic staging, tumor characteristics, and surgical treatments. The Cox model was used to evaluate variables that could predict relapse risks. Relapse risk curves were calculated according to the Kaplan–Meier method, and the log-rank test was used to compare them.

Results

There were 557 HCC patients treated with a first-line approach of LR and/or LRTs (n = 335) or LT (n = 222). The median age at initial transplantation was 59 versus 68 for those whose first surgical approach was LR and/or LRT. In univariate analysis with the Cox model, nodule size was the single predictor of recurrence of HCC in the posttreatment setting (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.05–2.47, p = 0.030). For the LRT group, we have enlightened the following clinical characteristics as significantly associated with RHCC: hepatitis B virus infection (which has a protective role with HR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.13–0.94, p = 0.038), number of HCC nodules (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.22–1.94, p &lt; 0.001), size of the largest nodule (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.12, p = 0.023), serum bilirubin (HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.03–2.40, p = 0.038), and international normalized ratio (HR: 16.40, 95% CI: 2.30–118.0, p = 0.006). Among the overall 111 patients with RHCC in the LRT group, 33 were iteratively treated with further curative treatment (12 were treated with LR, two with MWTA, three with a combined LR-MWTA treatment, and 16 underwent LT). Only one of 18 recurrent patients previously treated with LT underwent LR. For these RHCC patients, multivariable analysis showed the protective roles of LT for primary RHCC after IDLS (HR: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.01–0.36, p = 0.002), of the time relapsed between the first and second IDLS treatments (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94–0.99, p = 0.044), and the impact of previous minimally invasive treatment (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.08–1.00, p = 0.051).

Conclusion

The coexistence of RHCC with underlying cirrhosis increases the complexity of assessing the net health benefit of ILDS before LT. Minimally invasive surgical therapies and time to HCC relapse should be considered an outcome in randomized clinical trials because they have a relevant impact on tumor-free survival.

Different Models to Predict the Risk of Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Setting of Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Liver transplantation is considered the first-choice curative therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma in the early phase of the disease, when surgical resection is not possible. Even when implementing restrictive criteria to select patients for liver transplantation, there is a risk of recurrence in the transplanted liver, influencing the long-term outcome and prognosis. As it is challenging to predict the individual risk of recurrence, there is a need for validated and predictive scoring systems to use to stratify patients before and/or after liver transplantation. Most of the proposed scorings include biological markers for tumour behavior, in addition to the number and size of tumoral nodules. In this review, we discuss different published models to assess the risk of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after transplantation. Our aim is to refine clinical decisions about prioritization and listing for liver transplantation, to better inform patients and provide an appropriate surveillance strategy to influence their prognosis.

Abstract

Liver transplantation is the preferred therapeutic option for non-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma in early-stage disease. Taking into account the limited number of donor organs, liver transplantation is restricted to candidates with long-term outcomes comparable to benign indications on the waiting list. Introducing the morphometric Milan criteria as the gold standard for transplant eligibility reduced the recurrence rate. Even with strict patient selection, there is a risk of recurrence of between 8 and 20% in the transplanted liver, and this is of even greater importance when using more expanded criteria and downstaging protocols. Currently, it remains challenging to predict the risk of recurrence and the related prognosis for individual patients. In this review, the recurrence-risk-assessment scores proposed in the literature are discussed. Currently there is no consensus on the optimal model or the implications of risk stratification in clinical practice. The most recent scorings include additional biological markers for tumour behavior, such as alfa-foetoprotein, and the response to locoregional therapies, in addition to the number and diameter of tumoral nodules. The refinement of the prediction of recurrence is important to better inform patients, guide decisions about prioritization and listing and implement individualized surveillance strategies. In the future, this might also provide indications for tailored immunosuppressive therapy or inclusion in trials for adjuvant treatment.

Trajectories of serum α-fetoprotein and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma outcomes after transarterial chemoembolization: A longitudinal, retrospective, multicentre, cohort study

BACKGROUND

α-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been proven a key tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its definition remains controversial. This study aims to characterize AFP trajectories after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and examine its impact on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

This longitudinal, multicenter, retrospective, cohort study examined data from the electronic medical record system of four hospitals in China between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2016. A latent class growth mixed model was applied to distinguish potential AFP dynamic changing trajectories. The multivariable Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted analyses were performed to eliminate unmeasured confounders through marginal structural models.

FINDINGS

A total of 881 patients, who had intermediate-stage HCC with AFP repeatedly measured 3 to 10 times, were included in the study. Three distinct trajectories were identified using the latent class growth mixture model: high-rising (25.7%; n = 226), low-stable (58.7%; n = 517), and sharp-falling (AFP serological response, 15.6%; n = 138). Compared with the low-stable class, the aHRs for death were 5.13 (3.71, 7.10) and 0.52 (0.33, 0.81) for the high-rising and sharp-falling class, adjusted by gender, baseline major tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, and logAFP(smooth). Furthermore, high-rising class had a significantly higher HR in the subgroup of female patients (10.60, 95%CI: 6.29, 17.86), age<55 (6.78, 95%CI: 4.79, 9.59) and Child-Pugh class B (23.01, 95%CI:8.07, 65.63) (P = 0.014, 0.046 and 0.033 for interaction, respectively). Trajectories of AFP had the highest relative importance of each parameter to survival, including largest tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, Child-Pugh class, and baseline AFP.

INTERPRETATION

AFP trajectories were associated with overall survival for intermediate-stage HCC after TACE.

FUNDING

The Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2018J01352, 2016J01576 and 2016J01586); the Science and Technology Innovation Joint Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2017Y9125).

Pre-Transplant Alpha-Fetoprotein > 25.5 and Its Dynamic on Waitlist Are Predictors of HCC Recurrence after Liver Transplantation for Patients Meeting Milan Criteria

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence rates after liver transplantation (LT) range between 8 and 20%. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at transplant can predict HCC recurrence, however a defined cut-off value is needed to better stratify patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the rate of HCC recurrence at our centre and to identify predictors, focusing on AFP.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed 236 consecutive patients that were waitlisted for HCC who all met the Milan criteria from January 2001 to December 2017 at our liver transplant centre. A total of twenty-nine patients dropped out while they were waitlisted, and 207 patients were included in the final analysis. All survival analyses included the competing-risk model.

RESULTS

The mean age was 56.8 ± 6.8 years. A total of 14% were female (n = 29/207). The median MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) at LT was 12 (9-16). The median time on the waitlist was 92 (41-170) days. The HCC recurrence rate was 16.4% (n = 34/208). The mean time to recurrence was 3.3 ± 2.8 years. The median AFP levels at transplant were higher in patients with HCC recurrence (p < 0.001). At multivariate analysis, the AFP value at transplant that was greater than 25.5 ng/mL (AUC 0.69) was a strong predictor of HCC recurrence after LT [sHR 3.3 (1.6-6.81); p = 0.001]. The HCC cumulative incidence function (CIF) of recurrence at 10 years from LT was significantly higher in patients with AFP > 25.5 ng/mL [34.3% vs. 11.5% (p = 0.001)]. Moreover, an increase in AFP > 20.8%, was significantly associated with HCC recurrence (p = 0.034).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, in our retrospective study, the AFP level at transplant > 25.5 ng/mL and its increase greater than 20.8% on the waitlist were strong predictors of HCC recurrence after LT in a cohort of patients that were waitlisted within the Milan criteria. However further studies are needed to validate these data.

Antibody-Mediated Rejection and Recurrent Primary Disease: Two Main Obstacles in Abdominal Kidney, Liver, and Pancreas Transplants

The advances in acute phase care have firmly established the practice of organ transplantation in the last several decades. Then, the next issues that loom large in the field of transplantation include antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) and recurrent primary disease. Acute ABMR is a daunting hurdle in the performance of organ transplantation. The recent progress in desensitization and preoperative monitoring of donor-specific antibodies enables us to increase positive outcomes. However, chronic active ABMR is one of the most significant problems we currently face. On the other hand, recurrent primary disease is problematic for many recipients. Notably, some recipients, unfortunately, lost their vital organs due to this recurrence. Although some progress has been achieved in these two areas, many other factors remain largely obscure. In this review, these two topics will be discussed in light of recent discoveries.