Loss of Sunda clouded leopards and forest integrity drive potential impacts of mesopredator release on vulnerable avifauna

Amongst the unintended consequences of anthropogenic landscape conversion is declining apex predator abundance linked to loss of forest integrity, which can potentially re-order trophic networks. One such re-ordering, known as mesopredator release, occurs when medium-sized predators, also called mesopredators, rapidly increase in abundance following the decline in apex predator abundance, consequently reducing the abundance of mesopredator prey, notably including terrestrial avifauna. We examine the cascading impacts of declining Sunda clouded leopard abundance, itself consequent upon a reduction in forest integrity, on the mesopredator community of Sabah, Malaysia, to determine whether the phenomenon of mesopredator release is manifest and specifically whether it impacts the terrestrial avifauna community of pheasants and pittas. To explore this trophic interaction, we used a piecewise structural equation model to compare changes in the relative abundance of organisms. Our results suggest that loss of forest integrity may have broad impacts on the community and trigger mesopredator release, the two acting additively in their impact on already vulnerable species of terrestrial avifauna: a result not previously documented in tropical systems and rarely detected even on a global scale. The limiting effect that the Sunda clouded leopard has on the Sunda leopard cat could illuminate the mechanism whereby mesopredator release impacts this system. Both Bulwer's pheasant and pittas appear to be significantly impacted by the increase in Sunda leopard cats, while the great argus pheasant shows similar compelling, although not statistically significant, declines as Sunda leopard cats increase. The inverse relationship between Sunda clouded leopards and Sunda leopard cats suggests that if a mesopredator release exists it could have downstream consequences for some terrestrial avifauna. These results suggest the under-studied interface between mammalian carnivores and avifauna, or more broadly species interactions in general, could offer important conservation tool for holistic ecosystem conservation efforts.

Forest type modulates mammalian responses to megafires

Although considered an evolutionary force responsible for shaping ecosystems and biodiversity, fires' natural cycle is being altered by human activities, increasing the odds of destructive megafire events. Here, we show that forest type modulates the responses of terrestrial mammals, from species to assemblage level, to a catastrophic megafire in the Brazilian Pantanal. We unraveled that mammalian richness was higher 1 year after fire passage compared to a pre-fire condition, which can be attributed to habitat modification caused by wildfires, attracting herbivores and open-area tolerant species. We observed changes in assemblage composition between burned/unburned sites, but no difference in mammalian richness or relative abundance. However, by partitioning the effects of burned area proportion per forest type (monospecific vs. polyspecific), we detected differential responses of mammals at several levels of organization, with pronounced declines in species richness and relative abundance in monospecific forests. Eighty-six percent of the species presented moderate to strong negative effects on their relative abundance, with an overall strong negative effect for the entire assemblage. Wildfires are predicted to be more frequent with climate and land use change, and if events analogous to Pantanal-2020 become recurrent, they might trigger regional beta diversity change, benefitting open-area tolerant species.

Impacts of zoning and landscape structure on the relative abundance of wild boar assessed through a Bayesian N-mixture model

Increasing human-wild boar interactions have led to damage to agricultural crops, traffic collisions and disease transmissions. Dividing natural areas in zones with differential hunting pressure is one of the currently adopted management strategies. However, the effectiveness of this approach is under debate. Hence, there is a need to better understand how to mitigate negative human-wild boar interactions effectively. Camera traps are cost-efficient, and non-invasive tools to monitor animal populations. N-mixture models can reliably estimate spatial variation in relative abundances when animals are imperfectly detected and/or cannot be individually identified. Thus, they are useful tools to infer the impacts of several factors on the land-use intensity of wild boar, based on camera trap data. In a nature area in central Belgium, we compare "summer" (April-September) land-use intensity of wild boar from 2018 until 2021 between three zones: a hunting free core zone, a winter hunting zone where hunting only takes place between November and March, and a year-round hunting zone. The latter is also close to the forest edge, agricultural crops and settlements. We compare spatial abundance models that capture these zone effects, or attractive effects of croplands, repulsive effects of hunting and repulsive effects of non-lethal human disturbances. We reveal between zone differences in wild boar land-use intensities across all summers. Additionally, we find that non-lethal human disturbance and croplands also explain variation in wild boar land-use intensity, but do not find negative associations with hunting locations. Our results suggest that the effects of zoning on wild boar land-use patterns are relevant in medium-sized natural areas. Moreover, we identify the need to install additional cameras outside of the managed area in order to assess the impacts of hunting in combination with non-lethal human activities on wild boar to mitigate negative human-wild boar interactions in the future.

Simulation-based assessment of the performance of hierarchical abundance estimators for camera trap surveys of unmarked species

Knowledge on animal abundances is essential in ecology, but is complicated by low detectability of many species. This has led to a widespread use of hierarchical models (HMs) for species abundance, which are also commonly applied in the context of nature areas studied by camera traps (CTs). However, the best choice among these models is unclear, particularly based on how they perform in the face of complicating features of realistic populations, including: movements relative to sites, multiple detections of unmarked individuals within a single survey, and low detectability. We conducted a simulation-based comparison of three HMs (Royle-Nichols, binomial N-mixture and Poisson N-mixture model) by generating groups of unmarked individuals moving according to a bivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, monitored by CTs. Under a range of simulated scenarios, none of the HMs consistently yielded accurate abundances. Yet, the Poisson N-mixture model performed well when animals did move across sites, despite accidental double counting of individuals. Absolute abundances were better captured by Royle-Nichols and Poisson N-mixture models, while a binomial N-mixture model better estimated the actual number of individuals that used a site. The best performance of all HMs was observed when estimating relative trends in abundance, which were captured with similar accuracy across these models.

N-mixture model-based estimate of relative abundance of sloth bear (Melursus ursinus) in response to biotic and abiotic factors in a human-dominated landscape of central India

Reliable estimation of abundance is a prerequisite for a species' conservation planning in human-dominated landscapes, especially if the species is elusive and involved in conflicts. As a means of population estimation, the importance of camera traps has been recognized globally, although estimating the abundance of unmarked, cryptic species has always been a challenge to conservation biologists. This study explores the use of the N-mixture model with three probability distributions, i.e., Poisson, negative binomial (NB) and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), to estimate the relative abundance of sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) based on a camera trapping exercise in Sanjay Tiger Reserve, Madhya Pradesh from December 2016 to April 2017. We used environmental and anthropogenic covariates to model the variation in the abundance of sloth bears. We also compared null model estimates (mean site abundance) obtained from the N-mixture model to those of the Royle-Nichols abundance-induced heterogeneity model (RN model) to assess the application of similar site-structured models. Models with Poisson distributions produced ecologically realistic and more precise estimates of mean site abundance (λ = 2.60 ± 0.64) compared with other distributions, despite the relatively high Akaike Information Criterion value. Area of mixed and sal forest, the photographic capture rate of humans and distance to the nearest village predicted a higher relative abundance of sloth bears. Mean site abundance estimates of sloth bears obtained from the N-mixture model (Poisson distribution) and the RN model were comparable, indicating the overall utility of these models in this field. However, density estimates of sloth bears based on spatially explicit methods are essential for evaluating the efficacy of the relatively more cost-effective N-mixture model. Compared to commonly used index/encounter-based methods, the N-mixture model equipped with knowledge on governing biotic and abiotic factors provides better relative abundance estimates for a species like the sloth bear. In the absence of absolute abundance estimates, the present study could be insightful for the long-term conservation and management of sloth bears.

Common palm civets (Paradoxurus hermaphroditus) are positively associated with humans and forest degradation with implications for seed dispersal and zoonotic diseases

1. Habitat loss and degradation can undermine wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. However, certain generalist wildlife species like mesopredators and omnivores can exploit these disturbed habitats, sometimes leading to population increases (e.g., "mesopredator release" in degraded areas). Although mesopredator release may cause negative effects on food webs and zoonotic disease management, some disturbance-tolerant species may help perpetuate important ecological interactions, such as seed dispersal. 2. We evaluated the habitat associations of common palm civets (Paradoxurus hermaphroditus), which are widespread generalist mesopredators in Southeast Asia. Common palm civets are also high-quality seed dispersers, and potential zoonotic disease hosts. 3. We used published and new camera trapping data to map their probability of presence across Southeast Asia and evaluate regional-scale associations between capture rates and habitat variables such as elevation, ecoregion intactness, and Human Footprint Index, among others. We also assessed the influence of habitat variables on their relative abundance at the local scale. 4. At the regional scale, we found that common palm civets showed significant positive associations with landscapes characterized by lower ecoregion intactness, higher Human Footprint Index, and lower elevations. At the local scale, their relative abundance showed a significant positive association with higher Human Footprint Index, but only to a certain point, after which it started decreasing. They also favored lower elevations at the local scale. 5. These multi-scale results indicate that common palm civets' abundance can increase under certain levels of human disturbances, consistent with the "mesopredator release" hypothesis. This suggests they may be crucial seed dispersers in degraded forest landscapes, especially where more sensitive seed dispersers have disappeared. Our results are also consistent with previous studies reporting that habitat degradation increases populations of potential zoonotic disease hosts, and thus risks of transmission to humans.

Two Methods of Monitoring Cats at a Landscape-Scale

Simple Summary

Feral cats are difficult to manage and harder to monitor. We report on the efficacy of Eradicat^® baiting and the cost and the efficacy of monitoring the activty of feral cats via camera-traps or track counts. Pre-baiting surveys for 2020 and 2021 suggested that the population of feral cats on Matuwa was very low, at 5.5 and 4.4 cats/100 km respectively, which is well below our target threshold of 10 cats/100 km. Post-baiting surveys then recorded 3.6 and 3.0 cats/100 km respectively, which still equates to a 35% and 32% reduction in cat activity despite initial low cat detection rate. Track counts recorded more feral cats than camera traps and were cheaper to implement.

Abstract

Feral cats are difficult to manage and harder to monitor. We analysed the cost and the efficacy of monitoring the pre- and post-bait abundance of feral cats via camera-traps or track counts using four years of data from the Matuwa Indigenous Protected Area. Additionally, we report on the recovery of the feral cat population and the efficacy of subsequent Eradicat^® aerial baiting programs following 12 months of intensive feral cat control in 2019. Significantly fewer cats were captured in 2020 (n = 8) compared to 2019 (n = 126). Pre-baiting surveys for 2020 and 2021 suggested that the population of feral cats on Matuwa was very low, at 5.5 and 4.4 cats/100 km, respectively, which is well below our target threshold of 10 cats/100 km. Post-baiting surveys then recorded 3.6 and 3.0 cats/100 km, respectively, which still equates to a 35% and 32% reduction in cat activity. Track counts recorded significantly more feral cats than camera traps and were cheaper to implement. We recommend that at least two methods of monitoring cats be implemented to prevent erroneous conclusions.