Recognition of early mortality in multiple myeloma by a prediction matrix

Variation in immunoglobulin use and impact on survival in myeloma

Serious infection is common in patients with multiple myeloma due to immune deficiency from the underlying disease and/or its treatment. Immunoglobulin replacement is one approach to reduce infection risk in these patients. However, few real-world data exist on its use in patients with myeloma. We investigated immunoglobulin use in Australia, New Zealand and Asia-Pacific using registry data and explored its association with survival outcomes. A total of 2374 patients with a median follow-up time of 29.5 months (interquartile range 13.3-54.3 months) were included in the analysis - 1673 from Australia, 313 Korea, 281 New Zealand and 107 Singapore. Overall, 7.1% of participants received immunoglobulin replacement within 24 months of diagnosis. Patients who received immunoglobulin replacement were likely to be younger, had lower baseline IgG levels (excluding paraprotein), were more likely to have baseline hypogammaglobulinaemia, baseline severe hypogammaglobulinaemia and abnormal baseline fluorescent in-situ hybridisation status, receive first-line myeloma treatment with immunomodulatory drugs or anti-CD38 therapy and undergo upfront autologous stem cell transplant. In our patient cohort, the use of immunoglobulin was not associated with overall survival benefit at the time of last follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 0.72, 95% CI 0.46-1.14, p = 0.16). Understanding treatment approaches in clinical practice can help support future planning and provision of immunoglobulin resources.

The Effect of Age and Other Patient Characteristics on Outcomes Among Nontransplanted Patients Who Were Treated With First-Line Lenalidomide, Bortezomib, and Dexamethasone: Results From the ConnectⓇ MM Registry

BACKGROUND

Lenalidomide (R), bortezomib (V), and dexamethasone (d) is a standard-of-care regimen in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM); however, characteristics and outcomes for nontransplanted patients receiving frontline RVd are not well understood.

PATIENTS

The ConnectⓇ MM Registry is a large, US, multicenter, prospective observational cohort study of NDMM patients.

METHODS

This analysis investigated characteristics and outcomes of patients who received RVd alone or followed by Rd or R (RVd ± Rd/R) who did not undergo frontline autologous stem cell transplantation.

RESULTS

As of August 2021, 314 of 1979 nontransplanted patients received RVd ± Rd/R as initial therapy. Of these, 135 were aged ≤ 65 years and 179 were > 65 years. 108 patients had time to relapse (TTR) of ≤ 12 months and 182 had TTR > 12 months. Baseline characteristics were comparable regardless of TTR and age group except renal function, which was more commonly impaired in older patients. Among patients aged ≤ 65 and > 65 years, median duration of first-line treatment was 6.3 and 9.0 months, median time to next line for those who received second-line therapy was 15.5 and 15.2 months, median progression-free survival (PFS) was 19.3 and 23.0 months, and median overall survival was 60.0 and 59.1 months, respectively. High-risk disease (per IMWG criteria) and high serum calcium were associated with higher hazard of progression or death; the adjusted PFS hazard ratio with respect to age (≤ 65 vs. > 65 years) based on multivariable analysis was 1.18 (0.89-1.57; P = .25).

CONCLUSION

These results indicate RVd is active across age groups and provide a better understanding of outcomes with RVd in NDMM.

Association of Thrombocytopenia With Disease Burden, High-Risk Cytogenetics, and Survival in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated With Novel Therapies

BACKGROUND

The effect of thrombocytopenia has not been studied in the era of novel treatments in multiple myeloma (MM).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes in MM patients presenting with thrombocytopenia.

MATERIALS

Newly diagnosed MM patients between 2008 and 2018 who received at least 2 novel agents at induction. Thrombocytopenia was defined as a platelet count of less than < 150,000/mm3.

RESULTS

A total of 648 patients were identified. Thrombocytopenia was found in 120 patients (18.5%). Baseline disease characteristics associated with higher rates of thrombocytopenia at baseline included IgA myeloma, P < .01, ISS 3 versus 1 or 2, P < .01, R-ISS 3 versus 1 or 2, P < .01, renal failure (CrCl < 30 mL/min), P < .01, hypercalcemia (Ca > 11.5 mg/dL), P < .01, elevated LDH, P < .03, anemia (Hb < 10 g/dL), P < .01, higher serum monoclonal protein, P < .02, and > 60% plasma cells in the bone marrow, P < .01. Thrombocytopenia was more prevalent across patients with t(4;14) and t(14;16), but was not associated with an overall high-risk fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) classification. Median OS was significantly lower among patients with thrombocytopenia (64.4 vs. 145.0 months, P < .01). In multivariable Cox regression, thrombocytopenia was associated with mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI, 1.7-3.6) independently of age, sex, high-risk FISH, ISS stage, response at induction, percentage of plasma cells in the BM, and anemia.

CONCLUSION

We found that thrombocytopenia was seen among one-fifth of MM patients and was more common in patients with (t[4; 14] and t[14; 16]). Thrombocytopenia had an independent association with worse survival.

Treatment sequences and drug costs from diagnosis to death in multiple myeloma

Novel therapies for multiple myeloma (MM) have improved patient survival, but their high costs strain healthcare budgets. End-of-life phases of treatment are generally the most expensive, however, these high costs may be less justifiable in the context of a less pronounced clinical benefit. To manage drug expenses effectively, detailed information on end-of-life drug administration and costs are crucial. In this retrospective study, we analysed treatment sequences and drug costs from 96 MM patients in the Netherlands who died between January 2017 and July 2019. Patients received up to 16 lines of therapy (median overall survival: 56.5 months), with average lifetime costs of €209 871 (€3111/month; range: €3942-€776 185) for anti-MM drugs. About 85% of patients received anti-MM treatment in the last 3 months before death, incurring costs of €20 761 (range: €70-€50 122; 10% of total). Half of the patients received anti-MM treatment in the last 14 days, mainly fully oral regimens (66%). End-of-life treatment costs are substantial despite limited survival benefits. The use of expensive treatment options is expected to increase costs further. These data serve as a reference point for future cost studies, and further research is needed to identify factors predicting the efficacy and clinical benefit of continuing end-of-life therapy.

Predictors of early morbidity and mortality in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: data from five randomized, controlled, phase III trials in 3700 patients

Early morbidity and mortality affect patient outcomes in multiple myeloma. Thus, we dissected the incidence and causes of morbidity/mortality during induction therapy (IT) for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM), and developed/validated a predictive risk score. We evaluated 3700 transplant-eligible NDMM patients treated in 2005-2020 with novel agent-based triplet/quadruplet IT. Primary endpoints were severe infections, death, or a combination of both. Patients were divided in a training (n = 1333) and three validation cohorts (n = 2367). During IT, 11.8%, 1.8%, and 12.5% of patients in the training cohort experienced severe infections, death, or both, respectively. Four major, baseline risk factors for severe infection/death were identified: low platelet count (<150/nL), ISS III, higher WHO performance status (>1), and age (>60 years). A risk score (1 risk factor=1 point) stratified patients in low (39.5%; 0 points), intermediate (41.9%; 1 point), and high (18.6%; ≥2 points) risk. The risk for severe infection/death increased from 7.7% vs. 11.5% vs. 23.3% in the low- vs. intermediate- vs. high-risk groups (p < 0.001). The risk score was independently validated in three trials incorporating quadruplet IT with an anti-CD38 antibody. Our analyses established a robust and easy-to-use score to identify NDMM patients at risk of severe infection/death, covering the latest quadruplet induction therapies. Trial registrations: HOVON-65/GMMG-HD4: EudraCT No. 2004-000944-26. GMMG-MM5: EudraCT No. 2010-019173-16. GMMG-HD6: NCT02495922. EMN02/HOVON-95: NCT01208766. GMMG-HD7: NCT03617731.

Disparities in Outcomes of Hospitalizations Due to Multiple Myeloma: A Nationwide Comparison

Background With the advent of novel treatments, there is a declining trend in the multiple myeloma (MM) mortality rate with an increasing hospitalization rate. However, there is limited population-based data on trends and outcomes of hospitalizations due to MM in the United States (US). Methods We analyzed the publicly available Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2007 to 2017 to identify MM hospitalizations. Results Hospitalizations for MM increased from 17,100 (8.71%) in 2007 to 19,490 (9.92%) in 2017. The in-hospital mortality rate declined from 8.4% in 2007 to 4.9% in 2017 (P <0.001) and discharge to facilities decreased from 20.4% in 2007 to 17.4% in 2017 (P <0.001). The odds of in-hospital mortality were higher with increasing age (odds ratio (OR): 1.46; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.38 -1.54; P <0.0001), pneumonia (OR: 4.18; 95% CI: 3.63 - 4.81, P <0.0001), septicemia (OR: 2.50; 95% CI: 2.22 - 2.82; P <0.0001), renal failure (OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.34 -1.64; P <0.0001), uninsured/self-pay insurance status (OR: 2.69; 95% CI: 2.18 - 3.3; P <0.0001), rural hospital (OR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.88 -2.72; P<0.0001), and urban-non-teaching hospitals (OR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.23 - 1.56; P <0.0001). Also, increasing age (OR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.11-1.18, P <0.0001), Black race (OR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02-1.23, P <0.0001), and multiple comorbidities were associated with higher disability. Conclusion Hospitalizations for MM continued to increase, whereas in-hospital mortality continued to decrease. Advanced age, sepsis, pneumonia, and renal failure were associated with higher odds of mortality in MM patients.

A real-world data analysis of predictors of early mortality after a diagnosis of multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND

Despite the increased availability and use of novel therapies for multiple myeloma, early mortality is a pervasive challenge with a significant impact on older adults. Reported rates and predictors of early mortality have varied in the literature, with most studies seldom focusing on community-treated patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort analysis of a real-world electronic health record-derived deidentified database of 7512 patients newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma between January 1, 2011, and February 2, 2021, and treated primarily in US-based community oncology practices, factors associated with early mortality (defined as death within 6 months after the multiple myeloma diagnosis) were examined with the use of binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

The median age was 70 years overall. We found an overall early mortality rate of 8.3%, with 73% of early deaths occurring in those aged ≥70 years. Among the early deaths, only 49 patients (8.7%) had documented disease progression before death (median time to progression, 30 days [interquartile range, 7-53 days]). Baseline factors associated with higher odds of early mortality included an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) ≥ 2, Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) stage III, an age ≥ 70 years, receipt of proteasome inhibitor-doublet therapy, a light-chain isotype, and the presence of renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min). Among those aged ≥70 years, ECOG PS ≥ 2 and R-ISS stage III remained the strongest predictors of early mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Early mortality disproportionately affects older adults (aged ≥70 years) with multiple myeloma. Interventions to support this population are needed to reduce disparate survival outcomes.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Factors associated with an increased risk of dying within 6 months (early mortality) of a new diagnosis of multiple myeloma (MM) among 7512 mostly community-treated patients with MM were evaluated. The early mortality rate was 8.3%; among those deaths, 49 patients (8.7%) had documented evidence of MM progression before death. The risk of early mortality was greatest for older patients (aged ≥70 years) and those with a poor performance status, poor kidney function, a higher disease stage, and light-chain MM and those receiving two-drug MM therapies. These findings highlight the need for supportive interventions geared toward older adults with MM.

Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, 2-microglobulin, hemoglobin, and lactate dehydrogenase can predict early grade ≥ 3 infection in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: A real-world multicenter study

Introduction

This research explored the clinical application of grade ≥ 3 infection predictive models for the newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) population.

Methods

It evaluated 306 patients with NDMM based on three different predictive models. The relationship between the grade ≥ 3 infection rates in NDMM and the scores was analyzed retrospectively. The cumulative incidence of early grade ≥ 3 infection was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to assess the statistical significance of the difference. To compare the predictive performance in the prediction of infection, the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) curve was used to show the area under the curve (AUC), and DeLong's test was used to analyze the difference in AUC.

Results

The incidence of grade ≥ 3 infection within the first 4 months of NDMM was 40.20%. Concerning the FIRST score (predictors: ECOG, β2-microglobulin, hemoglobin, and lactate dehydrogenase), GEM-PETHEMA score (predictors: albumin, male sex, ECOG, and non-IgA type MM), and Infection Risk model of Multiple Myeloma (IRMM) score (predictors: ECOG, serum β2-microglobulin, globulin, and hemoglobin), the probability of early grade ≥ 3 infection in the different groups showed statistically significant differences (low-risk vs. high-risk: 25.81% vs. 50.00%, p < 0.001; low-risk vs. moderate-risk vs. high-risk: 35.93% vs. 41.28% vs. 60.00%, p= 0.045; low-risk vs. moderate-risk vs. high-risk: 20.00% vs. 43.75% vs. 52.04%, p < 0.001). Statistical differences existed in the probability of early grade ≥ 3 infection among the different groups by the FIRST and IRMM scores but no statistical differences in the GEM-PETHEMA score (p < 0.001, p< 0.001, and p = 0.090, respectively). The FIRST score showed good discrimination and simple calculation with highest AUC. Further subgroup analysis showed that the FIRST score could still apply for patients treated with bortezomib-based regimen and frail patients.

Discussion

Our findings indicate that the FIRST score (consisting of ECOG, β2-microglobulin, hemoglobin, and lactate dehydrogenase) is a simple and robust infection stratification tool for patients with NDMM and could be used in routine clinical work.

Intestinal Klebsiella pneumoniae Contributes to Pneumonia by Synthesizing Glutamine in Multiple Myeloma

Pneumonia accounts for a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. It has been previously shown that intestinal Klebsiella pneumonia (K. pneumonia) enriches in MM and promotes MM progression. However, what role the altered gut microbiota plays in MM with pneumonia remains unknown. Here, we show that intestinal K. pneumonia is significantly enriched in MM with pneumonia. This enriched intestinal K. pneumonia links to the incidence of pneumonia in MM, and intestinal colonization of K. pneumonia contributes to pneumonia in a 5TGM1 MM mice model. Further targeted metabolomic assays reveal the elevated level of glutamine, which is consistently increased with the enrichment of K. pneumonia in MM mice and patients, is synthesized by K. pneumonia, and leads to the elevated secretion of TNF-α in the lung normal fibroblast cells for the higher incidence of pneumonia. Inhibiting glutamine synthesis by establishing glnA-mutated K. pneumonia alleviates the incidence of pneumonia in the 5TGM1 MM mice model. Overall, our work proposes that intestinal K. pneumonia indirectly contributes to pneumonia in MM by synthesizing glutamine. Altogether, we unveil a gut–lung axis in MM with pneumonia and establish a novel mechanism and a possible intervention strategy for MM with pneumonia.

Establishment and Validation for Predicting the Death of Multiple Myeloma among Whites

The prognosis of multiple myeloma (MM) patients was poor in white-American patients as compared to black-American patients. This study aimed to predict the death of MM patients in whites based on the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A total of 28,912 white MM patients were included in this study. Data were randomly divided into a training set and a test set (7 : 3). The random forest and 5-fold cross-validation were used for developing a prediction model. The performance of the model was determined by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (CI). MM patients in the death group had older age, higher proportion of tumor distant metastasis, bone marrow as the disease site, receiving radiotherapy, and lower proportion of receiving chemotherapy than that in the survival group (all P < 0.001). The AUC of the random forest model in the training set and testing set was 0.741 (95% CI, 0.740–0.741) and 0.703 (95% CI, 0.703–0.704), respectively. In addition, the AUC of the age-based model was 0.688 (95% CI, 0.688–0.689) in the testing set. The results of the DeLong test indicated that the random forest model had better predictive effect than the age-based model (Z = 7.023, P < 0.001). Further validation was performed based on age and marital status. The results presented that the random forest model was robust in different age and marital status. The random forest model had a good performance to predict the death risk of MM patients in whites.

Predictors of early mortality in multiple myeloma: Results from the Australian and New Zealand Myeloma and Related Diseases Registry (MRDR)

The frequency and causes of early mortality in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) have not been well described in the era of novel agents. We investigated early mortality in a prospective cohort study of all patients with NDMM registered on the Australian and New Zealand Myeloma and Related Diseases Registry (MRDR) at 36 institutions between July 2011 and March 2020. Early mortality was defined as death from any cause within the first 12 months after diagnosis. A total of 2377 patients with NDMM were included in the analysis, with a median (interquartile range) age of 67.4 (58.9–74.60 years, and 60% were male. Overall, 216 (9.1%) patients died within 12 months, with 119 (4.5%) having died within 6 months. Variables that were independent predictors of early mortality after adjustment in multivariable regression included age (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.08; p < 0.001), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.26–1.79; p < 0.001), serum albumin (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98; p < 0.001), cardiac disease (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.35–2.86; p < 0.001) and International Staging System (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.07–1.82; p = 0.01). For those with a primary cause of death available, it was reported as disease‐related in 151 (78%), infection 13 (7%), other 29 (15%). Infection was listed as a contributing factor for death in 38% of patients.

Decrease in early mortality for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients in the Netherlands: a population-based study

Identification of risk factors for early mortality (EM) in multiple myeloma (MM) patients may contribute to different therapeutic approaches in patients at risk for EM. This population-based study aimed to assess trends in EM and risk factors for EM among MM patients diagnosed in the Netherlands. All MM patients, newly diagnosed between 1989 and 2018, were identified in the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients were categorized into three calendar periods (1989–1998, 1999–2008, 2009–2018) and into five age groups (≤65, 66–70, 71–75, 76–80, >80 years). EM was defined as death by any cause ≤180 days post-diagnosis. We included 28,328 MM patients (median age 70 years; 55% males). EM decreased from 22% for patients diagnosed in 1989–1998 to 13% for patients diagnosed in 2009–2018 (P < 0.01) and this decrease was observed among all age groups. Exact causes of death could not be elucidated. Besides patient’s age, we found that features related to a more aggressive disease presentation, and patient characteristics reflecting patients’ physical condition were predictive of EM. In summary, EM decreased from 1999 onwards. Nevertheless, EM remains high, especially for patients aged >70 years. Therefore, novel strategies should be explored to improve the outcome of patients at risk for EM.

[A predictive model based on risk factors for early mortality in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma]

Objective: To investigate risk factors for early mortality (EM) in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and to build an EM-predictive model. Methods: In a cohort of 275 patients with NDMM, risk factors for EM at 6, 12, and 24 months after diagnosis (EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively) were determined to establish a model to predict EM. Results: The rates of EM6, EM12, and EM24 were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively. The most common cause for EM was disease progression/relapse, accounting for 60.0% , 77.1% , and 84.3% of EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively. EM6 was associated with corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L and platelet count <100×10(9)/L, whereas risk factors for EM12 included age >75 years, ISS Ⅲ, R-ISS Ⅲ, corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L, serum creatinine >177 µmol/L, platelet count <100×10(9)/L, and bone marrow plasma cell ratio ≥ 60% . In addition to the risk factors for EM12, EM24 was also associated with male sex and 1q21 gain. By multivariate analysis, age >75 years, platelet count <100×10(9)/L, and 1q21 gain were independent risk factors for EM24 but there were no independent risk factors significantly associated with EM6 and EM12. Using a scoring system including these three risk factors, a Cox model for EM24 was generated to distinguish patients with low (score<3) and high (score ≥ 3) risk. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 20.7% and 99.2% , respectively. Further, an internal validation performed in a cohort of 183 patients with NDMM revealed that the probability of EM24 in high-risk patients was 26 times higher than that in low-risk patients. Moreover, this model was also able to predict overall survival. The median overall survival of patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 59, 41, 22, 17.5, and 16 months, respectively. Conclusion: In the study cohort, the EM6, EM12, and EM24 rates were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively, and disease progression or relapse were main causes of EM. An EM24-predictive model built on three independent risk factors for EM24 (age>75 years, platelet count<100×10(9)/L, and 1q21 gain) might predict EM risk and overall survival.

Crystalline appearance in light chain cast nephropathy is associated with higher early mortality in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND

Light chain cast nephropathy (LCCN) is the most common kidney lesion in multiple myeloma patients. LCCN may exhibit a crystalline appearance. The frequency and clinical significance of crystalline LCCN are not well understood. Here, we report the first retrospective study of crystalline LCCN.

METHODS

Twenty-six patients with LCCN were enrolled. We studied the clinicopathological features and outcomes of LCCN patients and compared ordinary LCCN patients (n = 18) with crystalline LCCN patients (n = 8).

RESULTS

Crystalline LCCN was not rare (8/26, 30.8%) in our study. The median age of LCCN patients was 57.5 (range, 41-75) years. No patients presented with nephrotic syndrome. No significant differences in clinical features were observed between the two groups. All crystalline LCCN patients suffered from advanced multiple myeloma and acute kidney injury. There was a dominance of the λ isotype (7/8, 87.5%) in patients with crystalline LCCN. Patients with ordinary LCCN had significantly higher scores of tubular atrophy and acute tubular injury than those with crystalline LCCN. The crystalline casts of 5 crystalline LCCN patients stained negative with antihuman Tamm-Horsfall glycoprotein. There were no significant differences in the median overall survival between the crystalline LCCN group and the ordinary LCCN group (6.0 months vs. 35.0 months, p = 0.173). However, crystalline LCCN patients had higher early mortality than ordinary LCCN patients (50.0% vs 11.1%, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Crystalline LCCN patients had higher early mortality than ordinary LCCN patients. Thus, for patients with LCCN, crystalline appearance should be screened carefully.

HLC Pair Suppression as a Risk Factor for Bacterial Bloodstream Infections and Early Mortality in Newly Diagnosed Intact Immunoglobulin Multiple Myeloma Patients

Despite the outstanding progresses in Multiple Myeloma treatment options in the last decades, it remains an incurable disease nowadays. Infectious events are a complication due to an impaired immune system associated with MM, sometimes a life-threatening one, particularly on the first months after the diagnosis. Both the underlying disease and treatment can contribute to the infection risk, so a biomarker that assess this risk could be highly relevant for a more tailored management of the patient. The measurement of the heavy+light chain (HLC) pairs of immunoglobulins in serum allows the quantification of both the monoclonal component and the non-monoclonal immunoglobulin of the same isotype. This approach has demonstrated high sensitivity for the detection of the clonality and prognostic value for MM. HLC pair suppression itself has prognostic power and it has been proposed to be a reflection of the immune system' attempt to control the tumor. In this study we evaluated the impact of the HLC pair suppression on the rate of bloodstream infections (BSI) and early death in 115 newly diagnosed MM patients. Twenty-one percent of the patients suffered a BSI in the first 6 months after diagnosis, of which 58% died within this period, accounting to 67% of the early deaths in global and highlighting the major impact of infections on MM patients in a "real world" setting. Severe HLC pair suppression identified patients with a higher risk of early BSI (HR: 6,97, p=0,009), and extreme HLC pair suppression together with BSI event and age >65 were independent risk factors for early death (p<0,001). Based on these factors, a stratification model was generated to allow identify patients at a higher risk of early death and poorer OS, with an apparently better performance than the ISS on the early death context. In conclusion, HLC pair suppression associates with both a higher risk of life-threatening early infection and early death in newly diagnosed MM patients. Patients older than 65 with extreme HLC pair suppression and BSI are at a high risk of early death, and thus patients presenting with these criteria have a very adverse prognosis.

Mortality from Multiple Myeloma Within One Year Following Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation: Defining an Ultra-high Risk Population

Despite improvements in therapy, approximately 5% of patients who undergo autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) experience early mortality (EM), death within 1 year of transplant (EM post-ASCT). Such patients tend to have few comorbidities suggesting their EM is owing to aggressive underlying disease. We sought to characterize this ultra-high risk population through a retrospective review of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) treated with first-line ASCT. Patients who died within 1 year of ASCT were matched for age, sex, and year of transplant in a 1:2 fashion with a control group. Of 962 transplants performed between January 1, 2007, and May 1, 2019, 41 patients (4.3%) died within 1 year of ASCT from MM-related causes. In a multivariate analysis, anemia, hypercalcemia, high-risk cytogenetics, and elevated lactate dehydrogenase were associated with EM post-ASCT. Forty patients (97.6%) received at least 1 novel agent. Most patients with EM post-ASCT received second-line chemotherapy (80.5%), although survival from initiation of second-line chemotherapy was only 2.1 months. The primary reason for not receiving second-line therapy was rapid relapse. Clinical parameters reflecting disease burden, as well as high-risk cytogenetics, are associated with EM post-ASCT. These patients have a dismal overall survival despite significant advances in treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory myeloma. Further study of these ultra-high risk patients is required to improve disease management and may give further insights into the biology of relapse and resistance in myeloma.

Trends in Early Mortality From Multiple Myeloma: A Population-Based Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Despite significant improvements in multiple myeloma (MM) treatment modalities, patient mortality early in the course of disease has been identified as a persistent phenomenon with variable reported rates and causes. Trends in early mortality over time have not been clearly defined.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify adult patients with MM between 1975 and 2015. Association of available sociodemographic factors with all-cause and MM-specific early mortality (death within 6 months after the diagnosis of MM) was conducted by multivariate analysis. Trends in early mortality were studied by joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 90,975 MM cases included in this analysis, early mortality was noted in 21%. Median age was 68 years overall, and 75 years for the early mortality cohort (P < .01). The most common causes of death for early mortality were MM itself, followed by cardiovascular, infections, and renal failure. Male gender, "other" race/ethnicity group, advancing age, and West, Midwest or South regions (reference Northeast) were associated with increased risk of both all-cause and MM-specific early mortality. Joinpoint regression analysis of trends data resulted in 1 joinpoint for all-cause 6-month mortality (2006-2015), while 2 joinpoints were noticed for myeloma-specific 6-month mortality (1975-1987 and 2003-2015).

CONCLUSION

Early mortality remains a significant unmet need for MM patient care, despite improving trends in recent years. Understanding the factors associated with early mortality can help develop individualized plans of patient care and mitigate circumstances that may contribute to early mortality among MM patients.

Connect MM Registry as a national reference for United States multiple myeloma patients

Background

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and National Cancer Database (NCDB) show improved overall survival (OS) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) over the last 15 years. This analysis evaluated the validity of the largely community‐based Connect MM Registry as a national reference for MM.

Methods

Baseline disease characteristics and survival in US newly diagnosed MM patients were examined using the Connect MM Registry as well as SEER and NCDB databases. Baseline characteristics predictive of longer survival in Connect MM were also identified.

Results

As of February 2017, 3011 patients were enrolled in the Connect MM Registry; 2912 were treated. Median age at time of MM diagnosis and age range were numerically similar from 2010 to 2015 across all 3 registries; SEER had a higher representation of nonwhite racial groups than that in the other 2 registries. OS rates suggest proportionate improvement with year of diagnosis among the 3 registries. A Cox proportional hazards model suggests that younger age (<65 years) is associated with longer survival (vs ≥75; HR, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.34‐0.46) in the Connect MM Registry. However, sex (HR, 0.91; P = .15) and race (black vs white; HR, 0.88; P = .21) were not associated with longer OS.

Conclusions

Data from the Connect MM Registry appear to be largely representative of national trends, comprehensive, and reliable representations of the national MM population. Baseline characteristics were comparable, and survival similarly improved over time among the 3 registries.

ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier

NCT01081028.

Development of a prognostic model for overall survival in multiple myeloma using the Connect® MM Patient Registry

Median overall survival (OS) has improved for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM), but prognosis varies depending on baseline patient characteristics. Current models use data from selected clinical trial populations, which prevent application to patients in an unselected community setting that reflects routine clinical practice. Using data from the Connect^® MM Registry, a large, US, multicentre, prospective observational cohort study (Cohort 1: 2009-2011; Cohort 2: 2012-2016) of 3011 patients with NDMM, we identified prognostic variables for OS via the multivariable analysis of baseline patient characteristics in Cohort 1 (n = 1493) and developed a tool to examine individual outcomes. Factors associated with OS (n = 1450 treated patients; P < 0·05) were age, del(17p), triplet therapy use, EQ-5D mobility, International Staging System stage, solitary plasmacytoma, history of diabetes, platelet count, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and serum creatinine, which were used to create survival matrices for 3- and 5-year OS. The model was internally and externally validated using Connect MM Cohort 2 (Harrell's concordance index, 0·698), MM-015 (0·649), and the phase 3 FIRST (0·647) clinical trials. This novel prognostic tool may help inform outcomes for NDMM in the era of triplet therapy use with novel agents.

Understanding mortality in multiple myeloma: Findings of a European retrospective chart review

Objectives

This study aimed to provide real‐world data on the characteristics and treatment of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at the time of death.

Methods

The study was a retrospective patient chart review across France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK during 2016, and included patients who had died in the 3 months before the index date.

Results

Data from 786 patients were reviewed. At the time of death, 37% of patients were receiving active treatment, 12% were in a treatment‐free interval and 51% were receiving only supportive care. Death before and during active first‐line treatment was not uncommon (6% and 24% of patients, respectively) but these deaths were often not solely due to disease progression; factors such as renal failure and infection frequently played a role (in 30% and 20% of patients at first‐line, respectively). Most deaths at later lines were due to progressive disease. Cox model results suggested that early deaths were associated with advanced disease stage, high‐risk cytogenetics and poor response and relapse profiles.

Conclusions

These real‐world data could be used to help develop strategies for improving survival in patients with MM and to support management tailored to the stage of disease.

Impact of post-ASCT maintenance therapy on outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma in Connect MM

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) followed by lenalidomide maintenance therapy is the standard of care for transplant-eligible patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Clinical trials show progression-free survival (PFS) benefits, with some studies (Cancer and Leukemia Group [CALGB] trial and meta-analysis) also showing overall survival (OS) benefits, but applicability to real-world clinical settings is unclear. Using data from Connect MM, the largest US-based observational registry of NDMM patients, we analyzed effects of maintenance therapy on long-term outcomes in 1450 treated patients enrolled from 2009 to 2011. Patients who received induction therapy and ASCT (n = 432) were analyzed from 100 days post-ASCT (data cut 7 January 2016): 267 received maintenance (80% lenalidomide-based [of whom 88% received lenalidomide monotherapy]); 165 did not. Lenalidomide maintenance improved median PFS and 3-year PFS rate vs no maintenance (50.3 vs 30.8 months [hazard ratio (HR), 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.46-0.82; P < .001] and 56% vs 42%, respectively). Improvements in median OS and 3-year OS rate were associated with lenalidomide maintenance vs no maintenance (not reached in either group [HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.36-0.83; P = .005] and 85% vs 70%, respectively). Five hematologic serious adverse events were reported with lenalidomide maintenance (pancytopenia [n = 2], febrile neutropenia, anemia, and thrombocytopenia [n = 1 each]) and 1 with no maintenance (thrombocytopenia). Second primary malignancies occurred at rates of 1.38 and 2.19 events per patient-year in lenalidomide maintenance and no maintenance groups, respectively. Survival benefits associated with lenalidomide maintenance previously demonstrated in clinical trials were observed in this community-based Connect MM Registry.

Simplified novel prognostic score for real-life older adults with multiple myeloma-registry-based analysis

The main goal was to find a simple prognostic to evaluate overall survival of patients older than 65 years of age with myeloma. Retrospective registry-based analysis from the Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies was conducted. Patients over 65 years with symptomatic myeloma were included. The four major parameters with impact on survival were identified: male gender, age > 75, creatinine > 152 μmol/L, and ECOG performance status 2-4. The patients were scored as good (0 points), intermediate good (1 point), intermediate poor (2 points), poor (3-4 points). Patients (1410 MM) were included. Median OS (months) was 65.7 (95% CI 49.8-81.7) for good, 51.0 (44.1-57.8) for intermediate good, 32.2 (26.2-38.2) for intermediate poor, and 18.9 (15.1-22.7) for poor. The differences in OS were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Good score was used as reference for hazard ratios, which for each other score were 1.43 (1.09-1.84) for intermediate good, 2.58 (2.00-3.33) for intermediate poor, and 3.88 (2.94-5.10) for poor. Time to progression showed medians (months) 20.5 (17.4-62.4) for good, 19.3 (17.0-21.7) for intermediate good, 19.6 (16.2-23.0) for intermediate poor, and 13.0 (10.8-15.2) for poor. The suggested scoring system provides readily available information about the prognosis of MM patients above 65 years.

Validation of multiple myeloma risk stratification indices in routine clinical practice: Analysis of data from the Czech Myeloma Group Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies

This study used data from the Czech Myeloma Group Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies to validate the International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) and revised International Staging System (R-ISS) indices for risk stratification in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) in clinical practice. Patients were included if they had symptomatic MM, complete data allowing R-ISS and IMWG staging (including cytogenetic information regarding t(4;14), t(14;16), and del(17p)), and key parameters for treatment evaluation. Median overall survival (OS) in included patients (n = 550) was 47.7 (95% CI: 39.5-55.9) and 46.2 (95% CI: 38.9-53.5) months from diagnosis and initiation of first-line therapy, respectively. Patients categorized as higher vs lower risk had reduced survival; median OS from diagnosis was 35.4 (95% CI: 30.5-40.3) vs 58.3 (95% CI: 53.8-62.9) months in high-risk vs other patients (IMWG; P = .001) and 34.1 (95% CI: 30.2-38.0) vs 47.2 (95% CI: 43.4-51.0) months in Stage III vs Stage II patients (R-ISS; P < .001). In conclusion, IMWG and R-ISS risk stratification indices are applicable to patients with MM in a real-world setting.

Heterogeneity of Second-Line Treatment for Patients With Multiple Myeloma in the Connect MM Registry (2010-2016)

BACKGROUND

The treatment landscape for multiple myeloma (MM) has undergone recent changes with the regulatory approval of several new therapies indicated for second- and later-line disease. Using data from Connect MM, the largest multisite, primarily community-based, prospective, observational registry of MM patients in the United States, selection of second-line treatments was evaluated during a 5-year period from 2010 to 2016.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Eligible patients were aged ≥ 18 years, had newly diagnosed MM ≤ 2 months before study entry, and were followed for up to 8 years. Patients who received ≥ 2 lines of therapy were analyzed. "Tepee" plots of stacked area graphs differentiated treatments by color to allow visualization of second-line treatment trends in MM patients.

RESULTS

As of February 2017, 855 of 2897 treated patients had progressed to second-line treatment. Treatment selection was heterogeneous; shifting patterns of treatment choices coincided with the approval status of newer agents. The most common treatment regimens in the early part of the decade were lenalidomide and/or bortezomib, with or without dexamethasone, with increasing use of newer agents (carfilzomib, pomalidomide, daratumumab, and elotuzumab) and triplet combinations over time. The influence of the baseline patient characteristics of age, history of diabetes, peripheral neuropathy, and renal function on treatment choice was also examined.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that community physicians are current in their MM management practices, with uptake of new drugs and acquaintance with results of randomized clinical trials using combinations almost concurrent with their regulatory approval and publication.

Recognition of early mortality in multiple myeloma by a prediction matrix

Early mortality (EM; death ≤ 6 months from diagnosis) has been reported in several newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) trials. Before the era of novel agents, the incidence was 10%‐14%. Causes of death included infections/pneumonia, renal failure, refractory disease, and cardiac events. Staging systems, such as the revised International Staging System (r‐ISS), and prognostic factors including cytogenetics, lactate dehydrogenase levels, and myeloma‐specific factors, are useful to assess overall prognosis; however, they cannot predict EM. We evaluated patients treated with novel agents in the Connect MM^® Registry and identified risk factors of the EM cohort. Eligible patients were enrolled in the registry within 60 days of diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate associations between baseline characteristics and EM. Prediction matrices for EM were constructed from a logistic model. Between September 2009 and December 2011, 1493 patients were enrolled in the registry and had adequate follow‐up. Of these patients, 102 (6.8%) had EM and 1391 (93.2%) survived for > 180 days. Baseline factors significantly associated with increased EM risk included age > 75 years, higher Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lower EQ‐5D mobility score, higher ISS stage, lower platelet count, and prior hypertension. Renal insufficiency trended toward increased EM risk. These risk factors were incorporated into a prediction matrix for EM. The EM prediction matrix uses differential weighting of risk factors to calculate EM risk in patients with NDMM. Identifying patients at risk for EM may provide new opportunities to implement patient‐specific treatment strategies to improve outcomes.