Dynamics of behavior change in the COVID world

How does prestige bias affect information recall during a pandemic?

The prestige theory of evolution states that our memory has an intrinsic bias to memorize information from someone of prestige. However, the evidence for information recall is mainly focused on content bias. Considering that the prestige bias can be advantageous in selecting information in contexts of uncertainty, this study assessed whether, in the scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic, the prestige bias would be favored over other models that do not possess the prestige spirit characteristics. The study was conducted through an online experiment, where participants were subjected to reading fictitious text, followed by a surprise recollection. Data were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model, Poisson family, and logistic regression. The results showed that prestige is only prioritized in the recall due to the family model and does not present any difference from the other models tested. However, it influenced the recall of specific information, suggesting its role as a factor of cultural attraction. Furthermore, we observed that trust in science-oriented profiles can influence the recall of information during a health crisis. Finally, this study highlights the complexity of the functioning of the human mind and how several factors can act simultaneously in the recall of information.

Coupled models of genomic surveillance and evolving pandemics with applications for timely public health interventions

Disease surveillance systems provide early warnings of disease outbreaks before they become public health emergencies. However, pandemics containment would be challenging due to the complex immunity landscape created by multiple variants. Genomic surveillance is critical for detecting novel variants with diverse characteristics and importation/emergence times. Yet, a systematic study incorporating genomic monitoring, situation assessment, and intervention strategies is lacking in the literature. We formulate an integrated computational modeling framework to study a realistic course of action based on sequencing, analysis, and response. We study the effects of the second variant's importation time, its infectiousness advantage and, its cross-infection on the novel variant's detection time, and the resulting intervention scenarios to contain epidemics driven by two-variants dynamics. Our results illustrate the limitation in the intervention's effectiveness due to the variants' competing dynamics and provide the following insights: i) There is a set of importation times that yields the worst detection time for the second variant, which depends on the first variant's basic reproductive number; ii) When the second variant is imported relatively early with respect to the first variant, the cross-infection level does not impact the detection time of the second variant. We found that depending on the target metric, the best outcomes are attained under different interventions' regimes. Our results emphasize the importance of sustained enforcement of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on preventing epidemic resurgence due to importation/emergence of novel variants. We also discuss how our methods can be used to study when a novel variant emerges within a population.

Mass behaviour change amid COVID-19: How public health information and social norms explain the transformation

COVID-19 is a severe and ongoing threat globally, with the spread disrupting lives and society. Despite the developments of vaccines, the key measure to reduce the transmission of variants has stemmed from mass changes to personal behaviours. COVID-19 pandemic offers a unique context, where the protection behaviours enacted by an individual are necessary to keep the community safe. A social psychological perspective can be used to understand the reasons for adherence to policies and determine what other factors can shape preventive behaviours. To resolve this, in partnership with health consumers we use an online survey, with the findings substantiating preventive behaviours are positively related to COVID-19 information access and descriptive norms. Additionally, findings demonstrate the mediating role of injunctive norms on preventive behaviour suggesting that policy makers can influence decision-making by promoting health information that provides guidance on acceptable behaviours, but also demonstrates subsequent success. The integrity of the model is substantiated by partial least squares (PLS) testing.

Consideration of COVID-19 beyond the human-centred approach of prevention and control: the ONE-HEALTH perspective

Most of the new emerging and re-emerging zoonotic virus outbreaks in recent years stem from close interaction with dead or alive infected animals. Since late 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread into 221 countries and territories resulting in close to 300 million known infections and 5.4 million deaths in addition to a huge impact on both public health and the world economy. This paper reviews the COVID-19 prevalence in animals, raise concerns about animal welfare and discusses the role of environment in the transmission of COVID-19. Attention is drawn to the One Health concept as it emphasizes the environment in connection with the risk of transmission and establishment of diseases shared between animals and humans. Considering the importance of One Health for an effective response to the dissemination of infections of pandemic character, some unsettled issues with respect to COVID-19 are highlighted.

Adhering to COVID-19 health guidelines: A behavioral-failure perspective

The mitigation of pandemics like that caused by the current COVID-19 virus is largely dependent on voluntary public adherence to government rules and regulations. Recent research has identified various individual covariates that account for some of the variance in compliance with COVID-19 behavioral guidelines. However, despite considerable research, our understanding of how and why these factors are related to adherence behavior is limited. Additionally, it is less clear whether disease-transmitting behaviors during a pandemic can be understood in terms of more general behavioral tendencies. The current research has examined the utility of a behavioral-failure lens in predicting adherence to COVID-19 guidelines and in illuminating mechanisms underlying the previously established relationship between Conscientiousness and adherence. In the two studies reported here, individual variations in the predisposition to behavioral failures predicted adherence to COVID-19 measures, and mediated the relationships between Conscientiousness and adherence. The Failure Proneness (FP) questionnaire predicted compliance with COVID-19 guidelines, while the Cognitive Failure Questionnaire (CFQ) did not. The results of hierarchical regressions showed that COVID-19 behavior was predicted only through the intentional factors (and mainly by Noncompliance-Violations). Hence, our data lend support to the notion that noncompliance with official COVID-19 prevention guidelines is driven mainly by intentional factors related to violation of norms and rules. The theoretical and practical implications of this finding are discussed.

Models of Identity Signaling

Identity signals inform receivers of a signaler’s membership in a subset of individuals, and in doing so shape cooperation, conflict, and social learning. Understanding the use and consequences of identity signaling is therefore critical for a complete science of collective human behavior. As is true for all complex social systems, this understanding is aided by the use of formal mathematical and computational models. Here I review some formal models of identity signaling. I divide these models into two categories. First, I discuss models used to study how identity functions as a signal, with a focus on public-health-related behavior and disease transmission. Second, I discuss models used to understand how identity signals operate strategically in different social environments, with a focus on covert, or encrypted, communication.

University students' adherence and vaccination attitudes during the COVID-19 pandemic: Focusing on costs and benefits

Numerous measures were implemented to contain the COVID‐19 pandemic. Adhering to these measures as well as getting vaccinated is associated with subjective costs and benefits. Since young people like university students largely feel less vulnerable to the virus, other costs and benefits than health might be more decisive for them. This article combines the results of a qualitative and a quantitative longitudinal study conducted with university students mainly living in Tyrol, Austria. The studies focused on the second wave of infections of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Health concerns, altruistic concerns, worrying about the economic consequences of the measures and reactance played an important role for students in deciding what measures to follow and their vaccination attitudes. The effects were partially mediated by understanding the measures' necessity. Qualitative results enabled further insights into thought processes during these decisions and revealed additional aspects, such as concerns about mental health consequences. This research suggests that students make their decisions about adherence and vaccinations based on a variety of aspects that they weigh against each other. Understanding the individual assessments of costs and benefits is crucial to promote both adherence to the measures against the COVID‐19 pandemic and vaccination readiness.

The impact of face masks on interpersonal trust in times of COVID-19

Despite the widespread use of face masks to combat COVID-19, little is known about their social and behavioral consequences. To understand the impact of face masks on interpersonal trust, we designed a novel experiment to assess the causal impact of face mask use on whether individuals follow economically relevant advice from a stranger. From a survey of more than 2000 US citizens, conducted during July and August 2020, we find that almost 5% fewer individuals trust advice when it is given by someone wearing a mask than when it is given by someone not wearing a mask. While, surprisingly, health-related risks do not seem to alter the way masks affect trust, the effects of masks are particularly large among individuals whose households face economic risks due to COVID-19 and those with below-average normative beliefs about mask wearing. Our results highlight the non-health-related meaning that face masks have developed during COVID-19 and suggest that mask use undermines trust in others among a substantial share of the US population.

Changing readiness to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 steered long-term epidemic and social trajectories

Societal responses crucially shape the course of a pandemic, but are difficult to predict. Mitigation measures such as social distancing are here assumed to minimize a utility function that consists of two conflicting sub-targets, the disease related mortality and the multifaceted consequences of mitigation. The relative weight of the two sub-targets defines the mitigation readiness H, which entails the political, social, and psychological aspects of decision making. The dynamics of social and behavioral mitigation thus follows an adaptive rule, which in turn is mediated by a non-adaptive dynamics of H. This framework for social dynamics is integrated into an epidemiological model and applied to the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Unperturbed simulations accurately reproduce diverse epidemic and mitigation trajectories from 2020 to 2021, reported from 11 European countries, Iran, and 8 US states. High regional variability in the severity and duration of the spring lockdown and in peak mortality rates of the first SARS-CoV-2 wave can be explained by differences in the reconstructed readiness H. A ubiquitous temporal decrease of H has greatly intensified second and third waves and slowed down their decay. The unprecedented skill of the model suggests that the combination of an adaptive and a non-adaptive rule may constitute a more fundamental mode in social dynamics. Its implementation in an epidemic context can produce realistic long-term scenarios relevant for strategic planning, such as on the feasibility of a zero-infection target or on the evolutionary arms race between mutations of SARS-CoV-2 and social responses.

Coupled dynamics of behaviour and disease contagion among antagonistic groups

Disease transmission and behaviour change are both fundamentally social phenomena. Behaviour change can have profound consequences for disease transmission, and epidemic conditions can favour the more rapid adoption of behavioural innovations. We analyse a simple model of coupled behaviour change and infection in a structured population characterised by homophily and outgroup aversion. Outgroup aversion slows the rate of adoption and can lead to lower rates of adoption in the later-adopting group or even behavioural divergence between groups when outgroup aversion exceeds positive ingroup influence. When disease dynamics are coupled to the behaviour-adoption model, a wide variety of outcomes are possible. Homophily can either increase or decrease the final size of the epidemic depending on its relative strength in the two groups and on R0 for the infection. For example, if the first group is homophilous and the second is not, the second group will have a larger epidemic. Homophily and outgroup aversion can also produce dynamics suggestive of a 'second wave' in the first group that follows the peak of the epidemic in the second group. Our simple model reveals dynamics that are suggestive of the processes currently observed under pandemic conditions in culturally and/or politically polarised populations such as the USA.

Boundaries of solidarity: a meta-ethnography of mask use during past epidemics to inform SARS-CoV-2 suppression

BACKGROUND

Many countries aiming to suppress SARS-CoV-2 recommend the use of face masks by the general public. The social meanings attached to masks may influence their use, but remain underinvestigated.

METHODS

We systematically searched eight databases for studies containing qualitative data on public mask use during past epidemics, and used meta-ethnography to explore their social meanings. We compared key concepts within and across studies, then jointly wrote a critical synthesis.

RESULTS

We found nine studies from China (n=5), Japan (n=1), Mexico (n=1), South Africa (n=1) and the USA (n=1). All studies describing routine mask use during epidemics were from East Asia. Participants identified masks as symbols of solidarity, civic responsibility and an allegiance to science. This effect was amplified by heightened risk perception (eg, during SARS in 2003), and by seeing masks on political leaders and in outdoor public spaces. Masks also acted as containment devices to manage threats to identity at personal and collective levels. In China and Japan, public and corporate campaigns framed routine mask use as individual responsibility for disease prevention in return for state- or corporate-sponsored healthcare access. In most studies, mask use waned as risk perception fell. In contexts where masks were mostly worn by patients with specific diseases (eg, for patients with tuberculosis in South Africa), or when trust in government was low (eg, during H1N1 in Mexico), participants described masks as stigmatising, uncomfortable or oppressive.

CONCLUSION

Face masks can take on positive social meanings linked to solidarity and altruism during epidemics. Unfortunately, these positive meanings can fail to take hold when risk perception falls, rules are seen as complex or unfair, and trust in government is low. At such times, ensuring continued use is likely to require additional efforts to promote locally appropriate positive social meanings, simplifying rules for use and ensuring fair enforcement.

How evolutionary behavioural sciences can help us understand behaviour in a pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought science into the public eye and to the attention of governments more than ever before. Much of this attention is on work in epidemiology, virology and public health, with most behavioural advice in public health focusing squarely on 'proximate' determinants of behaviour. While epidemiological models are powerful tools to predict the spread of disease when human behaviour is stable, most do not incorporate behavioural change. The evolutionary basis of our preferences and the cultural evolutionary dynamics of our beliefs drive behavioural change, so understanding these evolutionary processes can help inform individual and government decision-making in the face of a pandemic. Lay summary: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought behavioural sciences into the public eye: Without vaccinations, stopping the spread of the virus must rely on behaviour change by limiting contact between people. On the face of it, "stop seeing people" sounds simple. In practice, this is hard. Here we outline how an evolutionary perspective on behaviour change can provide additional insights. Evolutionary theory postulates that our psychology and behaviour did not evolve to maximize our health or that of others. Instead, individuals are expected to act to maximise their inclusive fitness (i.e, spreading our genes) - which can lead to a conflict between behaviours that are in the best interests for the individual, and behaviours that stop the spread of the virus. By examining the ultimate explanations of behaviour related to pandemic-management (such as behavioural compliance and social distancing), we conclude that "good of the group" arguments and "one size fits all" policies are unlikely to encourage behaviour change over the long-term. Sustained behaviour change to keep pandemics at bay is much more likely to emerge from environmental change, so governments and policy makers may need to facilitate significant social change - such as improving life experiences for disadvantaged groups.