Adjusting for reporting delay in cancer incidence when combining different sets of cancer registries

Recovery From COVID-19-Related Disruptions in Cancer Detection

Importance

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the timely diagnosis of cancer, which persisted as the second leading cause of death in the US throughout the pandemic.

Objective

To evaluate the disruption and potential recovery in cancer detection during the first (2020) and second (2021) years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study involved an epidemiologic analysis of nationally representative, population-based cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Included patients were diagnosed with incident cancer from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2021. The analysis was conducted in May 2024 using the April 2024 SEER data release, which includes incidence data through December 31, 2021.

Exposures

Diagnosis of cancer during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020, 2021).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Difference between the expected and observed cancer incidence in 2020 compared with 2021, with additional analyses by demographic subgroups (sex, race and ethnicity, and age group) and community (county-level) characteristics.

Results

The analysis included 15 831 912 patients diagnosed with invasive cancer between 2000 and 2021, including 759 810 patients in 2020 and 825 645 in 2021. The median age was 65 years (IQR, 56-75 years), and 51.0% were male. The percentage difference between the expected and observed cancer incidence was -8.6% (95% CI, -9.1% to -8.1%) in 2020, with no significant difference in 2021 (-0.2%; 95% CI, -0.7% to 0.4%). These translated to a cumulative (2020-2021) deficit in observed vs expected cases of -127 931 (95% CI, -139 206 to -116 655). Subgroup analyses revealed that incidence rates remained substantially depressed from expected rates into 2021 for patients living in the most rural counties (-4.9%; 95% CI, -6.7% to -3.1%). The cancer sites with the largest cumulative deficit in observed vs expected cases included lung and bronchus (-24 940 cases; 95% CI, -28 936 to -20 944 cases), prostate (-14 104 cases; 95% CI, -27 472 to -736 cases), and melanoma (-10 274 cases; 95% CI, -12 825 to -7724 cases).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cross-sectional study of nationally representative registry data found that cancer incidence recovered meaningfully in 2021 following substantial disruptions in 2020. However, incidence rates need to recover further to address the substantial number of patients with undiagnosed cancer during the pandemic.

A population-based study on incidence trends of small intestine cancer in the United States from 2000 to 2020

BACKGROUND

Although rare, small intestine cancer is on the rise in the developed world. We aimed to investigate the incidence trends of small intestine cancer by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and histological subgroups in the United States (US) over 2000-2020. Also, we evaluated the COVID-19 impacts on the incidence trends of this cancer.

METHODS

Data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22 database. Both the average annual percent change (AAPC) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were determined. The findings were expressed as counts and incidence rates adjusted for age per 100,000 people with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 67,815 cases of small intestine cancer across all age groups were reported in the US between 2000 and 2019. Neuroendocrine carcinoma was the most often reported subtype (54.26%). The age group of 55 to 69 years (38.08%), men (53.10%), and Non-Hispanic Whites (69.07%) accounted for the majority of cases. Over 2000-2019, the ASIRs for small intestine cancer among men and women were 2.61 (95% CI: 2.59-2.64) and 1.92 (95% CI: 1.89-1.94) per 100,000, indicating a significant increase of 2.01% and 2.12%, respectively. Non-Hispanic Black men had the highest ASIR (4.25 per 100,000). Also, those aged 80-84 age group had the highest ASIR. During COVID-19, the ASIR of small intestine cancer decreased by 8.94% (5.06-12.81%).

CONCLUSIONS

Small intestine cancer incidence raised in all sexes and ethnicities. Following COVID-19, reported cases declined, possibly due to pandemic-related diagnostic challenges. The impact of underdiagnosis on patient survival needs further investigations.

US Cancer Detection Decreased Nearly 9 Percent During The First Year Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

We investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer detection, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, which recently released data through the first year of the pandemic (2020). Across all cancer sites, cancer incidence fell by 8.7 percent. The most common cancers that experienced the largest disruptions were lung and bronchus, melanoma of the skin, and thyroid cancer.

Counts, incidence rates, and trends of pediatric cancer in the United States, 2003-2019

BACKGROUND

Cancer is a leading cause of death by disease among children and adolescents in the United States. This study updates cancer incidence rates and trends using the most recent and comprehensive US cancer registry data available.

METHODS

We used data from US Cancer Statistics to evaluate counts, age-adjusted incidence rates, and trends among children and adolescents younger than 20 years of age diagnosed with malignant tumors between 2003 and 2019. We calculated the average annual percent change (APC) and APC using joinpoint regression. Rates and trends were stratified by demographic and geographic characteristics and by cancer type.

RESULTS

With 248 749 cases reported between 2003 and 2019, the overall cancer incidence rate was 178.3 per 1 million; incidence rates were highest for leukemia (46.6), central nervous system neoplasms (30.8), and lymphoma (27.3). Rates were highest for males, children 0 to 4 years of age, Non-Hispanic White children and adolescents, those in the Northeast census region, the top 25% of counties by economic status, and metropolitan counties with a population of 1 million people or more. Although the overall incidence rate of pediatric cancer increased 0.5% per year on average between 2003 and 2019, the rate increased between 2003 and 2016 (APC = 1.1%), and then decreased between 2016 and 2019 (APC = -2.1%). Between 2003 and 2019, rates of leukemia, lymphoma, hepatic tumors, bone tumors, and thyroid carcinomas increased, while melanoma rates decreased. Rates of central nervous system neoplasms increased until 2017, and then decreased. Rates of other cancer types remained stable.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of pediatric cancer increased overall, although increases were limited to certain cancer types. These findings may guide future public health and research priorities.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, part II: Recent changes in prostate cancer trends and disease characteristics

BACKGROUND

Temporal trends in prostate cancer incidence and death rates have been attributed to changing patterns of screening and improved treatment (mortality only), among other factors. This study evaluated contemporary national-level trends and their relations with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing prevalence and explored trends in incidence according to disease characteristics with stage-specific, delay-adjusted rates.

METHODS

Joinpoint regression was used to examine changes in delay-adjusted prostate cancer incidence rates from population-based US cancer registries from 2000 to 2014 by age categories, race, and disease characteristics, including stage, PSA, Gleason score, and clinical extension. In addition, the analysis included trends for prostate cancer mortality between 1975 and 2015 by race and the estimation of PSA testing prevalence between 1987 and 2005. The annual percent change was calculated for periods defined by significant trend change points.

RESULTS

For all age groups, overall prostate cancer incidence rates declined approximately 6.5% per year from 2007. However, the incidence of distant-stage disease increased from 2010 to 2014. The incidence of disease according to higher PSA levels or Gleason scores at diagnosis did not increase. After years of significant decline (from 1993 to 2013), the overall prostate cancer mortality trend stabilized from 2013 to 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

After a decline in PSA test usage, there has been an increased burden of late-stage disease, and the decline in prostate cancer mortality has leveled off. Cancer 2018;124:2801-2814. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Colorectal Cancer Statistics From the Veterans Affairs Central Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common and potentially deadly disease. Although the United States has robust cancer data reporting, information from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system has often been underrepresented in national cancer data sources. We describe veterans with incident CRC in terms of their patient and tumor characteristics and mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients diagnosed or treated with CRC at any VA institution in the fiscal years 2009 to 2012 were identified using 3 data sources: (1) VA Central Cancer Registry (VACCR); (2) VA Corporate Data Warehouse; and (3) VA Reports and Measures Portal. The CRC frequencies within the VA population and survival curves were examined descriptively and compared with the national projections using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data.

RESULTS

A total of 12,551 veterans with CRC were included in the present analysis. The median age at diagnosis was 65.5 years. Approximately 97% (n = 12,229) of the CRC cases were diagnosed among men. Approximately 44% (n = 5517) of the patients were diagnosed with localized disease. The 3-year survival rate was associated with age (P < .01) and stage (P < .01) at diagnosis. We identified a possible decrease in VA CRC incidence over time.

CONCLUSION

Although the VA CRC patient population was heavily skewed toward the male gender, the patient and tumor characteristics were similar between the incident CRC cases reported by the VACCR and those reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. This suggests that research findings resulting from the VACCR might have applicability beyond the VA healthcare system setting.

Melanoma burden and recent trends among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years, United States

Melanoma is among the most common cancers for adolescents and young adults. Updated information on melanoma among adults <50 is needed. The objective of this study was to examine invasive melanoma in the United States among people aged 15-49years for the group at highest risk, non-Hispanic whites. In 2015, we analyzed population-based cancer registry data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to examine melanoma incidence and death rates and trends among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years by sex and age. We also present incidence trends with regard to thickness and site on the body. Among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years, rates were higher among females. Thin melanomas increased among both sexes during 1992-2006 and stabilized during 2006-2012. For the period 1992-2012, melanomas thicker than 4mm increased among males and melanomas 1.01-2.00mm thick increased among females. Melanomas were most commonly diagnosed on the trunk and lower extremity among females and on the trunk and upper extremity among males. Increases in melanoma incidence among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years across various thicknesses suggest that melanoma trends are not solely related to increased screening but are, in part, related to true increases. Declines in melanoma rates of about 3% a year from the mid-2000s to 2012 in the youngest age groups offer hope that melanoma incidence may decline in future generations.