Validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of cancer in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and main duct dilatation of 10 mm or less

Identifying an optimal cancer risk threshold for resection of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

BACKGROUND

IPMN consensus guidelines make implicit judgments on what cancer risk level should prompt surgery. We used decision modeling to estimate this cancer risk threshold (CRT) for BD-IPMN patients.

METHODS

We created a decision model to compare quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) following surgery or surveillance for BD-IPMNs. We simulated treatment decisions for hypothetical patients, varying age, comorbidities and lesion location (pancreatic head/tail). The base case was a 60-year-old patient with mild comorbidities and pancreatic head IPMN. Probabilities, life expectancies, and utilities were incorporated from literature/public datasets. CRT was defined as the level of cancer risk at which the expected value of QALYs for surgery first exceeded that of surveillance.

RESULTS

In the base case, surgery was preferred over surveillance, yielding 21.90 vs. 21.88 QALYs. The optimal CRT for a BD-IPMN patient depended on age, comorbidities, and location. CRT in the base case was 20 % and 3 % for an IPMN in the head and tail of the pancreas, respectively. Other drivers of preferred treatment were age and likelihood of postoperative mortality.

CONCLUSION

For BD-IPMNs, the optimal CRT varies depending on patient age and risk of surgical complications. Personalized risk threshold values could guide treatment decisions and inform future treatment consensus guidelines.

Systematic review on surveillance for non-resected branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

The management of branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN) varies in existing guidelines. This study investigated the optimal surveillance protocol and safe discontinuation of surveillance considering natural history in non-resected IPMN, by systematically reviewing the published literature.

METHODS

This review was guided by PRISMA. Research questions were framed in PICO format "CQ1-1: Is size criteria helpful to determine surveillance period? CQ1-2: How often should surveillance be carried out? CQ1-3: When should surveillance be discontinued? CQ1-4: Is nomogram predicting malignancy useful during surveillance?". PubMed was searched from January-April 2022.

RESULTS

The search generated 2373 citations. After screening, 83 articles were included. Among them, 33 studies were identified for CQ1-1, 19 for CQ1-2, 26 for CQ1-3 and 12 for CQ1-4. Cysts <1.5 or 2 cm without worrisome features (WF) were described as more indolent, and most studies advised an initial period of surveillance. The median growth rate of cysts <2 cm ranged from 0.23 to 0.6 mm/year. Patients with cysts <2 cm showing no morphological changes and no WF after 5-years of surveillance have minimal malignancy risk of 0-2%. Two nomograms created with over 1000 patients had AUCs of around 0.8 and appear to be feasible in a real-world practice.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with suspected BD-IPMN <2 cm and no other WF, less frequent surveillance is recommended. Surveillance may be discontinued for cysts that remain stable during 5-year surveillance, with consideration of patient condition and life expectancy. With this updated surveillance strategy, patients with non-worrisome BD-IPMN should expect more streamlined management and decreased healthcare utilization.

Association of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features with advanced neoplasia in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN): A systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the International Consensus Fukuoka Guidelines (ICG2017) in identifying high-risk lesions of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMNs).

METHODS

The ICG2017 revision committee conducted a comprehensive literature review to establish evidence-based statements on IPMNs. The review focused on articles examining the diagnostic value of imaging features (e.g., cyst or main pancreatic duct diameter), clinical symptoms associated with IPMN, and serum biomarkers. Five clinical questions regarding high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WF) in the ICG2017 guidelines were addressed.

RESULTS

A total of 210 articles were reviewed. The findings revealed a significant association between the presence of mural nodules ≥5 mm in diameter or solid components with contrast enhancement and the diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. Contrast-enhanced diagnostic tools, such as CT, MRI, or EUS, demonstrated the highest prediction rate and were recommended. Positive cytology was identified as an HRS, while symptoms like acute pancreatitis and cyst diameter growth ≥2.5 mm per year were considered WFs. The use of nomograms and multiple diagnostic factors was recommended for optimal IPMN management.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review provides evidence supporting the improved diagnostic accuracy of ICG2017 in identifying high-risk lesions of IPMN. The multidisciplinary incorporation of HRS and WF based on imaging findings and clinical symptoms is crucial. These findings should inform the revision of ICG2017, enhancing the evaluation and management of IPMN patients. By implementing these recommendations, clinicians can make more informed decisions, leading to better diagnosis and treatment outcomes for high-risk IPMN cases.

Prediction of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: A nomogram based on clinical information and radiological outcomes

OBJECTIVE

Clinical practitioners face a significant challenge in maintaining a healthy balance between overtreatment and missed diagnosis in the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). The current study aimed to identify significant risk factors of malignant IPMN from a series of clinical and radiological parameters that are widely available and noninvasive and develop a method to individually predict the risk of malignant IPMN to improve its management.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 168 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with IPMN after individualized pancreatic resection between June, 2012 and December, 2020. Independent predictors determined using both univariate and multivariate analyses to construct a predictive model. The discriminatory power of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Decision curve analysis was performed to demonstrate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Internal cross validation was performed to assess the validity of the predictive model.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, five significant independent risk factors were identified: increased serum CA19-9 level, low prognostic nutritional index (PNI), cyst size, enhancing mural nodule, and main pancreatic duct diameter. The nomogram based on the parameters mentioned above had outstanding performance in distinguishing malignancy, with an AUC of 0.907 (95% confidence interval: 0.859-0.956, p < 0.05), which remained 0.875 after internal cross-validation, and showed good clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSION

A novel nomogram for predicting malignant IPMN first introducing PNI was developed, which may aid in improving IPMN management. Nevertheless, external validation is required to confirm its efficacy.

Circulating cytokines allow for identification of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are the precursor lesions of pancreatic cancers, requiring active surgical intervention during cancer development. However, the current criteria for predicting malignant IPMNs remain challenging and limited. Hence, this study aimed to assess the discriminatory performance of circulating cytokines, including TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8, then build a novel predictive model to improve the diagnostic accuracy.

METHOD

A total of 131 retrospective (from March 2016 to December 2019) and 53 prospective (from March 2020 to January 2021) patients who were histologically confirmed as IPMNs were consecutively collected and analyzed.

RESULT

The circulating levels of TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 were significantly elevated in malignant IPMNs, and were verified as independent factors for malignant IPMNs (p < 0.05). Then, a novel score, the circulating cytokine score (CCS), was calculated and demonstrated as an independent predictive indicator with a higher area under the curve (AUC) than each cytokine alone (p < 0.001). Besides the CCS, two high-risk stigmata features, the presence of solid component (PSC), and main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilation ≥10 mm were also demonstrated as independent indicators for predicting malignant IPMNs. Finally, a novel nomogram incorporating the CCS and these two high-risk stigmata features presented a remarkable diagnostic performance, both in the training and validation cohorts with AUCs of 0.928 and 0.873, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The CCS can be considered a novel independent predictive indicator for malignant IPMNs. Additionally, the formulated nomogram model integrating the CCS, PSC, and MPD ≥10 mm can be a valuable and promising tool for predicting the malignant transformation of IPMNs during long-term follow-ups to assist in timely and accurate surgical decisions.

Development, validation, and comparison of a nomogram based on radiologic findings for predicting malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: An international multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Although we previously proposed a nomogram to predict malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) and validated it in an external cohort, its application is challenging without data on tumor markers. Moreover, existing nomograms have not been compared. This study aimed to develop a nomogram based on radiologic findings and to compare its performance with previously proposed American and Korean/Japanese nomograms.

METHODS

We recruited 3708 patients who underwent surgical resection at 31 tertiary institutions in eight countries, and patients with main pancreatic duct >10 mm were excluded. To construct the nomogram, 2606 patients were randomly allocated 1:1 into training and internal validation sets, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was calculated using 10-fold cross validation by exhaustive search. This nomogram was then validated and compared to the American and Korean/Japanese nomograms using 1102 patients.

RESULTS

Among the 2606 patients, 90 had main-duct type, 900 had branch-duct type, and 1616 had mixed-type IPMN. Pathologic results revealed 1628 low-grade dysplasia, 476 high-grade dysplasia, and 502 invasive carcinoma. Location, cyst size, duct dilatation, and mural nodule were selected to construct the nomogram. AUC of this nomogram was higher than the American nomogram (0.691 vs 0.664, P = .014) and comparable with the Korean/Japanese nomogram (0.659 vs 0.653, P = .255).

CONCLUSIONS

A novel nomogram based on radiologic findings of IPMN is competitive for predicting risk of malignancy. This nomogram would be clinically helpful in circumstances where tumor markers are not available. The nomogram is freely available at http://statgen.snu.ac.kr/software/nomogramIPMN.

Malignant potential and specific characteristics of pure main duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm

BACKGROUND

As the malignant potential of main duct (MD-) type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) has been discussed together with Mixed-type in most previous studies, the malignant potential of pure MD-type IPMN remains unclear. This study evaluated the specific characteristics and predictors of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC) for pure MD-type IPMN.

METHODS

From 1,100 patients with IPMN, this study includes 387 patients that underwent surgery. We evaluated the specific characteristics of pure MD-type IPMN by comparing clinicopathological factors between MD-type (n = 79) and branch duct (BD-) type (n = 146) or Mixed-type IPMN (n = 162), and predictors of HGD/invasive IPMC in pure MD-type IPMN.

RESULTS

The rate of HGD/invasive IPMC was significantly higher in MD-type than in BD-type (70.9 vs. 48.6%, P = 0.001), although there was no difference between MD-type and Mixed-type IPMNs (P = 0.343). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) of patients with MD-type were better than those of patients with Mixed-type (P = 0.008 and P = 0.009, respectively). There were no significant differences in RFS, overall survival, and DSS between patients with MD-type and patients with BD-type IPMNs. Multivariate analysis showed two independent predictors of HGD/invasive IPMC in MD-type IPMN; mural nodule height ≥5 mm (P = 0.025, odds ratio [OR]; 16.949) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level in the pancreatic juice obtained by preoperative endoscopic retrograde pancreatography ≥50 ng/ml (P = 0.039, OR; 9.091).

CONCLUSIONS

Measurement of mural nodule height and CEA in the pancreatic juice might be useful in determining surgical indication for pure MD-type IPMN, although further studies for confirmation are essential.

Robotisch gestützte Enukleation einer zystischen Neoplasie des Pankreaskopfes

Laut aktuellen revidierten Fukuoka-Leitlinien besteht die Indikation zur Resektion von BD-IPMN des Pankreas mit Worrisome Features, da hier ein Risiko der malignen Entartung von bis zu 30% besteht. Die Resektion kann bei fehlenden klinischen, bildmorphologischen und laborchemischen Malignitätszeichen als eine nicht anatomische, lokale Exzision durchgeführt werden.

Eine robotische Enukleation bei benignen Raumforderungen der Bauchspeicheldrüse stellt eine sehr gute Alternative zu den resezierenden Verfahren, insbesondere zu denjenigen in offener Technik, dar. Diese operative Behandlungsoption wird bei einem Mindestabstand bis zum pankreatischen Hauptgang von mindestens 2 mm im „International consensus statement on robotic pancreatic surgery“ nahegelegt.

Neben den bekannten Vorteilen der minimalinvasiven Chirurgie führt diese parenchymsparende Methode zum Erhalt von endo- und exokriner Funktion (ca. 90%) und zu einem progressfreien 10-Jahres-Überleben von ca. 75% bei etwas erhöhter Morbidität (ca. 60%) verglichen mit den resezierenden Verfahren.

Der folgende Videobeitrag präsentiert das Operationsvideo einer robotischen Zystenenukleation (bei Verdacht auf eine BD-IPMN mit Worrisome Features) im Pankreaskopf und Processus uncinatus bei einer 62-jährigen Patientin mit besonderer Betonung der wichtigsten vaskulären Landmarken, Besonderheiten der Herangehensweise und Vorteile der robotischen Technik.

Preoperative Differentiation of Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma From Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Nomogram Based on Ultrasonographic Features and Clinical Indicators

OBJECTIVE

To establish a predictive nomogram to distinguish combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on preoperative clinical and ultrasound findings.

METHODS

A total of 261 patients with pathologically confirmed primary liver cancers (PLCs) were enrolled in this retrospective study, comprising 87 CHCs, 87 HCCs, and 87 ICCs matched by propensity score matching. Patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation one at the ratio of 7:3. A nomogram integrating ultrasound imaging characteristics and clinical features was established based on the independent risk factors selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in the training and validation cohorts in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

The nomogram, consisting of ultrasound imaging features (shape and margin on B-mode ultrasound, enhanced pattern on contrast-enhanced ultrasound) and clinical information [elevated alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level and serum protein electrophoresis (SPE) α1 level], showed promising performance in differentiating CHC from HCC and ICC, with the concordance index (C-index) of 0.8275 and 0.8530 in the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the calibration curves suggested good consistency between predictions and observations. High clinical practicability was confirmed by the decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram based on clinical and ultrasound imaging characteristics showed good performance in the discrimination of CHC from other subtypes of PLC and would be valuable in clinical decision-making.

Branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN): Are cyst volumetry and other novel imaging features able to improve malignancy prediction compared to well-established resection criteria?

OBJECTIVES

Current guidelines base the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) on several well-established resection criteria (RC), including cyst size. However, malignancy may occur in small cysts. Since branch-duct (BD) IPMN are not perfect spheres, volumetric and morphologic analysis might better correlate with mucin production and grade of dysplasia. Nonetheless, their role in malignancy (high-grade dysplasia/invasive cancer) prediction has been poorly investigated. Previous studies evaluating RC also included patients with solid-mass-forming pancreatic cancer (PC), which may affect the RC yield. This study aimed to assess the role of volume, morphology, and other well-established RC in malignancy prediction in patients with BD- and mixed-type IPMN after excluding solid masses.

METHODS

Retrospective ethical review-board-approved study of 106 patients (2008-2019) with histopathological diagnosis of BD- and mixed-type IPMN (without solid masses) and preoperative MRI available. Standard imaging and clinical features were collected, and the novel imaging features cyst-volume and elongation value [EV = 1 - (width/length)] calculated on T2-weighted images. Logistic regression analysis was performed. Statistical significance set at two-tails, p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Neither volume (odds ratio (OR) = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99-1.02, p = 0.12) nor EV (OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.02-5.93, p = 0.49) was associated with malignancy. Contrast-enhancing mural nodules (MN), main pancreatic duct (MPD) ≥ 5 mm, and elevated carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 serum levels (> 37 μmol/L) were associated with malignancy (MN OR: 4.32, 95% CI: 1.18-15.76, p = 0.02; MPD ≥ 5 mm OR: 4.2, 95% CI: 1.34-13.1, p = 0.01; CA19-9 OR: 6.72; 95% CI: 1.89 - 23.89, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Volume and elongation value cannot predict malignancy in BD- and/or mixed-type IPMN. Mural nodules, MPD ≥ 5 mm and elevated CA19-9 serum levels are associated with higher malignancy risk even after the exclusion of solid masses.

KEY POINTS

• Novel and well-established resection criteria for IPMN have been evaluated after excluding solid masses. • BD-IPMN volume and elongation value cannot predict malignancy. • Main pancreatic duct ≥ 5 mm, mural nodules, and elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels are associated with malignancy.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict postoperative pulmonary complications following thoracoscopic surgery

Background

Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) after thoracoscopic surgery are common. This retrospective study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict PPCs in thoracoscopic surgery.

Methods

A total of 905 patients who underwent thoracoscopy were randomly enrolled and divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at 80%:20%. The training cohort was used to develop a nomogram model, and the validation cohort was used to validate the model. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were applied to screen risk factors for PPCs, and the nomogram was incorporated in the training cohort. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram for predicting PPCs were assessed using C-indices and calibration plots.

Results

Among the patients, 207 (22.87%) presented PPCs, including 166 cases in the training cohort and 41 cases in the validation cohort. Using backward stepwise selection of clinically important variables with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) in the training cohort, the following seven variables were incorporated for predicting PPCs: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade III/IV, operation time longer than 180 min, one-lung ventilation time longer than 60 min, and history of stroke, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and smoking. With incorporation of these factors, the nomogram achieved good C-indices of 0.894 (95% confidence interval (CI) [0.866–0.921]) and 0.868 (95% CI [0.811–0.925]) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, with well-fitted calibration curves.

Conclusion

The nomogram offers good predictive performance for PPCs after thoracoscopic surgery. This model may help distinguish the risk of PPCs and make reasonable treatment choices.

Dynamic Metabolic Risk Profiling of World Trade Center Lung Disease: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Rationale: Metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) increases the risk of World Trade Center (WTC) lung injury (LI). However, the temporal relationship of MetSyn, exposure intensity, and lung dysfunction is not well understood. Objective: To model the association of longitudinal MetSyn characteristics with WTC lung disease to define modifiable risk. Methods: Firefighters, for whom consent was obtained (N = 5,738), were active duty on September 11, 2001 (9/11). WTC-LI (n = 1,475; FEV₁% predicted <lower limit of normal [LLN]) and non-WTC-LI (n = 4,263; FEV₁% predicted ⩾LLN at all exams) was the primary outcome, and FVC% predicted <LLN and FEV₁/FVC <0.70 were secondary outcomes. We assessed 1) the effect of concurrent MetSyn on longitudinal lung function by linear mixed models, 2) the temporal effect of MetSyn and exposure by Weibull proportional hazards, 3) the effects of MetSyn's rate of change by two-stage models, and 4) the nonlinear joint effect of longitudinal MetSyn components by a partially linear single-index model (PLSI). Measurements and Main Results: WTC-LI cases were more often ever-smokers, arrived in the morning (9/11), and had MetSyn. Body mass index ⩾30 kg/m² and high-density lipoprotein <40 mg/dl were most contributory to concurrent loss of FEV₁% predicted and FVC% predicted while conserving FEV₁/FVC. Body mass index ⩾30 kg/m² and dyslipidemia significantly predicted WTC-LI, FVC% predicted <LLN in a Weibull proportional hazards model. Dynamic risk assessment of WTC-LI on the basis of MetSyn and exposure showed how reduction of MetSyn factors further reduces WTC-LI likelihood in susceptible populations. PLSI demonstrates that MetSyn has a nonlinear relationship with WTC lung disease, and increases in cumulative MetSyn risk factors exponentially increase WTC-LI risk. An interactive metabolic-risk modeling application was developed to simplify PLSI interpretation. Conclusions: MetSyn and WTC exposure contribute to the development of lung disease. Dynamic risk assessment may be used to encourage treatment of MetSyn in susceptible populations. Future studies will focus on dietary intervention as a disease modifier.

High-Risk Characteristics Associated with Advanced Pancreatic Cystic Lesions: Results from a Retrospective Surgical Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The management of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) remains controversial. We performed a retrospective study to determine characteristics associated with advanced PCLs (A-PCLs) and whether these characteristics vary in different pathological types of PCLs. The additional diagnostic value of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) was also evaluated.

METHODS

Patients who underwent surgical resection for an identified PCLs by imaging modalities were included. A logistic regression model was developed to identify significant characteristics for A-PCLs. EUS data was assessed separately.

RESULTS

Three hundred and fifty-three patients were included, and 125 patients (35.4%) were A-PCLs. The presence of main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter ≥ 10 mm (odds ratio [OR], 11.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.53-89.2; P = 0.018), mural nodules ≥ 5 mm (OR, 11.67; 95% CI, 2.3-59.05; P = 0.003), solid components within cysts (OR, 30.87; 95% CI, 7.23-131.7; P < 0.0001) and high serum CA19-9 levels (OR, 1.006; 95% CI, 1.001-1.011; P = 0.02) were independently associated with the presence of A-PCLs. The presence of septa was independently associated with the presence of non-A-PCLs (OR, 0.147; 95% CI, 0.04-0.6; P = 0.008). Males who had a history of tobacco abuse (P < 0.0001) and had a greatly dilated MPD (P < 0.0001) were more common in advanced intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMC) patients. Solid pseudopapillary neoplasm (SPT) often occurred in young women (P < 0.0001), mostly asymptomatically (P < 0.0001) and with lower serum CA19-9 levels (P < 0.0001). In the 124 patients who underwent EUS-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA), five additional characteristics (4 mural nodules and 1 MPD involvement) were identified by EUS imaging and 17 patients were identified with abnormal cytological results (13 atypical cells and 4 suspicious for malignancy cells) by EUS-FNA.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of a retrospective study with large sample size, the presence of MPD ≥ 10 mm, mural nodules, solid components, and high serum CA19-9 levels were independently associated with the presence of A-PCLs. The high-risk characteristics may vary across different types of A-PCLs. EUS and EUS-FNA could provide additional diagnostic information for PCLs.

Nomogram for the Prediction of High-Grade Dysplasia and Invasive Carcinoma in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas Based on Variables of Noninvasive Examination

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are a heterogeneous group of neoplasms and represent the most common identifiable precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer. Clinical decision-making of the risk for malignant disease, including high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma, is challenging. Moreover, discordance on the indication for resection exists between the contemporary guidelines. Furthermore, most of the current nomogram models for predicting malignant disease depend on endoscopic ultrasonography to evaluate the precise size of mural nodules. Thus, this study aimed to propose a model to predict malignant disease using variables from a noninvasive examination. We evaluated patients who underwent resection of pathologically confirmed IPMNs between November 2010 and December 2018 and had preoperative clinical data available for review. Based on binary multivariable logistic regression analysis, we devised a nomogram model to predict malignant IPMNs. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the discrimination power of the model. Of the 333 patients who underwent resection of IPMNs, 198 (59.5%) had benign and 135 (40.5%) had malignant IPMNs. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that cyst size, cyst location, cyst wall enhancement, multicystic lesion, diameter of main pancreatic duct, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9, and carcinoembryonic antigen were significantly associated with malignancy. The nomogram, constructed based on these variables, showed excellent discrimination power with an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI: 0.818–0.900, P < 0.001). In conclusion, we have developed a nomogram consisting of a combination of cross-sectional imaging features and blood markers, variables that can readily be obtained by noninvasive examinations during the surveillance period, which can distinguish benign from malignant IPMNs. Nevertheless, external validation is warranted.

Nomogram Based on Ultrasonography and Clinical Features for Predicting Malignancy in Soft Tissue Tumors

Purpose

The objective of this study was to establish a predictive nomogram based on ultrasound (US) and clinical features for patients with soft tissue tumors (STTs).

Patients and Methods

A total of 260 patients with STTs were enrolled in this retrospective study and were divided into a training cohort (n=200, including 110 malignant and 90 benign masses) and a validation cohort (n=60, including 30 malignant and 30 benign masses). Multivariate analysis was performed by binary logistic regression analysis to determine the significant factors predictive of malignancy. A simple nomogram was established based on these independent risk factors including US and clinical features. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were measured by the calibration curve and the concordance index (C-index).

Results

The nomogram, comprising US features (maximum diameter, margin and vascular density) and clinical features (sex, age, and duration of disease), showed a favorable performance for predicting malignancy, with a sensitivity of 88.2% and a specificity of 78.7%. The calibration curve for malignancy probability in the training cohort showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations. The C-indexes of the training cohort and validation cohort for predicting malignancy were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85–0.94) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73–0.94), respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram based on US and clinical features could be a simple, intuitive and reliable tool to individually predict malignancy in patients with STTs.

Management Algorithms for Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms: The Surgeon's Perspective

CONTEXT.—

The detection of pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) has increased owing to the advancement and widespread use of imaging modalities, resulting in differences between past and current management methods for PCNs, including intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Therefore, clinicians should accurately diagnose and determine appropriate treatment strategies. However, previously published treatment guidelines for IPMNs present different indications for treatment.

OBJECTIVE.—

To review the current status of PCNs, including epidemiologic change, malignancy risk, and factors for treatment, and to provide the optimal management algorithms for PCNs, including IPMNs, from the clinician's point of view.

DATA SOURCES.—

Literature review of published studies and the authors' own work.

CONCLUSIONS.—

The treatment of PCNs relies on the type of cyst that is present or suspected. Serous cystic neoplasms are usually benign, and observation is sufficient. However, surgical treatment is required for mucinous cystic neoplasms, and malignancy risk differs according to lesion size. Solid pseudopapillary neoplasms also require surgery. The detection of small IPMNs has been increasing, and most branch duct-type IPMNs are dormant. However, cysts 3 cm or larger or growing branch duct-type IPMNs must be carefully monitored because of the increasing risk of malignancy. Therefore, surveillance strategies should be different according to the size of the lesions. A tailored approach is needed for selecting surgery or surveillance, considering the malignancy potential of the lesion and patient-associated factors such as operative risks and life expectancy. Nomograms are valuable tools for selecting treatment methods as a customized approach for IPMNs.

Natural history and optimal treatment strategy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas: Analysis using a nomogram and Markov decision model

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

With the increase in detection of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN), a tailored approach is needed. This study was aimed at exploring the natural history of IPMN and suggest optimal treatment based on malignancy risk using a nomogram and Markov decision model.

METHODS

Patients with IPMN who underwent surveillance or surgery were included. Changes in worrisome features/high-risk stigmata and malignancy conversion rate were assessed. Life expectancy and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were compared using a nomogram predicting malignancy.

RESULTS

Overall, 2006 patients with histologically confirmed or radiologically typical IPMN were enrolled. Of these, 1773 (88.4%), 81 (4.0%), and 152 (7.6%), respectively, had branch duct (BD)-, main duct-, and mixed-type IPMN at initial diagnosis. The cumulative risk of developing worrisome feature or high-risk stigmata was 19.0% and 35.0% at 5- and 10-year follow-up, respectively. The progression of malignancy rate at 10-year follow-up was 79.9% for main and mixed IPMNs and 5.9% for BD-IPMN. Nomogram-based malignancy risk prediction is well correlated with natural history based on pathologic biopsy and shows good stratification of survival. The decision model recommends surgery to maximize survival and QALY especially in those with >35% malignancy risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with main duct- and mixed-type IPMN, which have a high risk of malignancy (79.9%), BD-IPMN is very indolent (5.9%). The nomogram-based decision model suggests surgery rather than surveillance for patients with a high malignancy risk. The optimal treatment strategy between surgery and surveillance should consider patients' health status, malignancy risk, and centers' experience.

Risk prediction for malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas: logistic regression versus machine learning

Most models for predicting malignant pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms were developed based on logistic regression (LR) analysis. Our study aimed to develop risk prediction models using machine learning (ML) and LR techniques and compare their performances. This was a multinational, multi-institutional, retrospective study. Clinical variables including age, sex, main duct diameter, cyst size, mural nodule, and tumour location were factors considered for model development (MD). After the division into a MD set and a test set (2:1), the best ML and LR models were developed by training with the MD set using a tenfold cross validation. The test area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs) of the two models were calculated using an independent test set. A total of 3,708 patients were included. The stacked ensemble algorithm in the ML model and variable combinations containing all variables in the LR model were the most chosen during 200 repetitions. After 200 repetitions, the mean AUCs of the ML and LR models were comparable (0.725 vs. 0.725). The performances of the ML and LR models were comparable. The LR model was more practical than ML counterpart, because of its convenience in clinical use and simple interpretability.

CT-Based Radiomics Analysis to Predict Malignancy in Patients with Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (IPMN) of the Pancreas

To assess the performance of CT-based radiomics analysis in differentiating benign from malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas (IPMN), preoperative scans of 408 resected patients with IPMN were retrospectively analyzed. IPMNs were classified as benign (low-grade dysplasia, n = 181), or malignant (high grade, n = 128, and invasive, n = 99). Clinicobiological data were reported. Patients were divided into a training cohort (TC) of 296 patients and an external validation cohort (EVC) of 112 patients. After semi-automatic tumor segmentation, PyRadiomics was used to extract radiomics features. A multivariate model was developed using a logistic regression approach. In the training cohort, 85/107 radiomics features were significantly different between patients with benign and malignant IPMNs. Unsupervised clustering analysis revealed four distinct clusters of patients with similar radiomics features patterns with malignancy as the most significant association. The multivariate model differentiated benign from malignant tumors in TC with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.84, sensitivity (Se) of 0.82, specificity (Spe) of 0.74, and in EVC with an AUC of 0.71, Se of 0.69, Spe of 0.57. This large study confirms the high diagnostic performance of preoperative CT-based radiomics analysis to differentiate between benign from malignant IPMNs.

Surgical Decisions Based on a Balance between Malignancy Probability and Surgical Risk in Patients with Branch and Mixed-Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

OBJECTIVE

To propose a decision tool considering both malignancy probability and surgical risk for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Background Data Summary: Surgical risk and malignancy probability are both critical factors in making decisions about surgical resection of IPMN.

METHODS

We included 800 patients who underwent pancreatic resection for branch duct and mixed-type IPMN (April 1995 to June 2018). A nomogram was used to obtain the malignancy probability (MP-N). The surgical risks were estimated as the postoperative complication rate and serious complication from the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SC-ACS NSQIP). The risk-benefit analysis was conducted in two ways: calculation of the cutoff value of MP-N using the complication rate and directly comparing the MP-N and SC-ACS NSQIP results.

RESULTS

The optimal cutoff value of MP-N was 32% and 21% in the pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP) groups, respectively, when using the major complication rate (Clavien grades III over). When we applied the optimal cutoff value to the two surgical methods, surgery was reduced by 51.7% in the PD group and 56% in the DP group, and the AUC value of the malignant predictions were 0.7126 and 0.7615, respectively. According to the direct comparison of MP-N and SC-ACS NSQIP, surgery was reduced by 31.7%, and the AUC value of malignant prediction was 0.6588.

CONCLUSION

Our risk-benefit analysis model considering both malignancy probability and surgical risk is relatively acceptable, and it may help surgeons and patients make treatment decisions for a disease with a broad spectrum of malignancy rates.