The dark figure of sexual recidivism

Evaluating layperson interpretation of actuarial sexual violence risk data: A multi-method comparison of risk communication with attention to gender bias

Forensic clinicians are often called upon to help courts determine the likelihood that someone will continue to commit sexually violent acts in the future. The utility of these evaluations depends largely on how effectively the results are communicated to and understood by the trier of fact. Actuarial results, such as those commonly reported in sexual offense risk assessments, appear particularly challenging for laypersons to understand. Using a representative sample of 206 U.S. adults, this study examines three methods of communicating actuarial risk via simulated expert testimony on participants' ratings of a hypothetical evaluee's risk of sexual re-offending. The results suggested that all participants, regardless of how results were communicated, over-estimated the examinee's risk level relative to the expert's probabilistic findings, but tended to agree with the expert's categorical predictions. Participants who were only shown actuarial data consistently rated the evaluee as more dangerous and likely to commit future sexually violent acts. Additionally, it was found that gender significantly impacted participants' perceptions, such that women found the evaluee more dangerousness and desired greater social distance from him. This study has implications for best practices regarding expert communication of actuarial results in cases involving sexual violence.

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend

Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

Advancing Research: An Examination of Differences in Characteristics of Sexual and Non-Sexual Offense Recidivism Using a 10-Year Follow-Up

In this article, we examine our current understanding of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and the intersection of mental health challenges and substance use on sexual and non-sexual recidivism. This study uses administrative data and comprehensive case files of a sample of 626 individuals who were incarcerated for a sexual offense. Each case was standardized to a 10-year post-release follow-up time for criminal history review. Findings reveal that ACEs, mental health challenges, and substance use disorder, along with a variety of other factors, affect the pathway to re-offending differently. Interestingly, despite the recent legislative push to utilize one standardized predictor of risk, individuals who commit sexual offenses (ICSOs) had very different re-offending patterns based on historic life events. This research will inform the current legislative debate by providing relevant empirical data on a large sample of ICSOs followed for a substantial period of time.

Do Sanctions Affect Undetected Sexual Offending?

Undetected sexual offending creates challenges for risk assessment since estimated sexual recidivism rates are based on documented charges or convictions. Courts and other stakeholders may be primarily interested in the true risk for sexual reoffense and not simply risk for detected sexual offenses. Attempts to study and quantify the rate of undetected sexual offending have resulted in a wide variety of estimates. In this study, we explore whether sanctions imposed for detected sexual offenses increase the detection rate of subsequent offenses, and thereby suppress undetected sexual offending in an exceptionally high-risk sample who were ultimately committed as Sexually Violent Persons. Results indicate the detection rate of sexual offenses increased following an initial sanction, subsequently decreasing the proportion of undetected to detected offending. This effect only occurred after the first sanction. Overall, the sample had a high detection rate and spent little time in the community before subsequent arrests. These results differ from other reports that high rates of sexual offenses go undetected.

Prediction of reoffending risk in men convicted of sexual offences: development and validation of novel and scalable risk assessment tools (OxRIS)

BACKGROUND

Current risk assessment tools have a limited evidence base with few validations, poor reporting of outcomes, and rarely include modifiable factors.

METHODS

We examined a national cohort of men convicted of sexual crimes in Sweden. We developed prediction models for three outcomes: violent (including sexual), any, and sexual reoffending. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to develop multivariable prediction models and validated these in an external sample. We reported discrimination and calibration statistics at prespecified cut-offs.

FINDINGS

We identified 16,231 men convicted of sexual offences, of whom 14.8% violently reoffended during a mean follow up of 38 months, 31.4% for any crime (34 months), and 3.6% for sexual crimes (42 months). Models for violent and any reoffending showed good discrimination and calibration. At 1, 3, and 5 years, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75-0.76 for violent reoffending and 0.74-0.75 for any reoffending. The prediction model for sexual reoffending showed modest discrimination (AUC = 0.67) and good calibration. We have generated three simple and web-based risk calculators, which are freely available.

INTERPRETATION

Scalable evidence-based risk assessment tools for sexual offenders in the criminal justice system and forensic mental health could assist decision-making and treatment allocation by identifying those at higher risk, and screening out low risk persons.

Predicting Risk of Reoffending in Persons with Child Sexual Exploitation Material Offense Histories: The Use of Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool in a Scottish Population

In the past decade, there has been an increase in child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses and convictions. Although research shows that individuals with CSEM offence histories generally are at low risk of reoffending, certain factors do increase in CSEM convictions, in order to assist with case prioritization, management and supervision, risk assessment is helpful across agencies. The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) was created specifically for this population and shows significant predictive validity for various outcomes. This study aimed to validate the use of the CPORT in a Scottish sample of 141 adult males who were convicted of CSEM offenses. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression analyses indicated that the CPORT significantly predicted any recidivism (Area Under the Curve = .81), any sexual recidivism (AUC = .78) and CSEM recidivism (AUC = .74), suggesting that it is a valid risk assessment tool for Scottish populations. Recommendations for further research and clinical implications are discussed.

Evading Detection: What Do We Know about Men Charged with Extrafamilial Child Sexual Abuse following Delayed Detection?

Most child sexual abuse (CSA) remains unreported and undetected. Despite this, much of what we know about perpetrators of CSA is derived from samples of convicted CSA offenders. Significant knowledge gaps remain about those who have evaded detection. This study addresses this gap with an in-depth content analysis of the case files of ten convicted child sexual offenders (CSOs) with the longest detection lag, selected from a broader group (n = 349) of men incarcerated at the Massachusetts Treatment Center (MTC). Participants were examined on a range of offender characteristics including Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs), cognitive distortions, antisocial traits, indicators of pedophilia and Machiavellian or narcissistic traits, offense facilitating factors, and grooming behavior. A tentative profile emerged with the following characteristics: direct experience of childhood abuse, various cognitive distortions, specialized rather than versatile criminal history, pedophilic traits, Machiavellian traits, and engaging in a range of offense-facilitating behaviors including grooming. We provide insight into offenders who evade detection for CSA and set the foundation for further research to inform prevention strategies for law enforcement agencies and child-serving organizations.

The p factor, crime, and criminal justice: A criminological study of Caspi et al.'s general psychopathology general theory

The general psychopathology general theory or p Factor is an influential theoretical development in the social and behavioral sciences, but has yet to gain traction in criminology and criminal justice. Drawing on data from a sample of 1722 federal pretrial defendants, we created a 22-item composite indicator or additive index of the p Factor containing externalizing, internalizing, substance use, paraphilic, and forensic indicators. Negative binomial regression models found that age, sex, and diverse forms of trauma exposure are associated with higher p Factor scores. Higher p scores strongly predicted total, violent, sexual, property, weapon, and drug arrest charges net the effects of demographic features and adverse childhood experiences. There is broad heterogeneity in psychopathology within this sample with nearly 29% of clients exhibiting zero psychopathology, nearly 61% showing average psychopathology or less, and nearly 40% evincing average to exceedingly high psychopathology. As a general theory, the p Factor has considerable potential to inform the assorted morbidities that often accompany criminal activity, including self-harm, reduced global functioning, substance use, and social dysfunction and thus is a parsimonious conceptual framework to understand the overlapping and systemic personal problems that typify chronic and serious criminal offenders.

Estimating the probability of sexual recidivism among men charged or convicted of sexual offences: Evidence-based guidance for applied evaluators

Risk assessment is routinely applied in forensic decision-making. Although relative risk information from risk scales is robust across diverse samples and settings, estimates of the absolute probability of sexual recidivism are not. Nonetheless, absolute recidivism estimates are still necessary in some evaluations. This paper summarizes research and offers guidance on evidence-based practices for assessing the probability of recidivism, organized largely around questions commonly asked in court. Overall, estimating the probability of sexual recidivism is difficult and should be undertaken with humility and circumspection. That being said, research favours empirical-actuarial risk tools for this task, more structured scales, and the use of multiple scales. Professional overrides of risk scale results should not be used under any circumstances. Paradoxically, however, professional judgement is still required in some circumstances. Risk scales do not consider all relevant risk factors, but the added value of external risk factors reaches a point of diminishing returns and may or may not be incremental (or worse, can degrade accuracy). There are reasons actuarial risk scales may both underestimate recidivism (e.g., undetected offending, short follow-ups) and overestimate recidivism (e.g., inclusion of sex offences not of interest in some referral questions, data on declining crime and recidivism rates, newer studies demonstrating overestimation of recidivism). Given all these considerations and the need for humility, in the absence of exceptional circumstances, I would not deviate too far from empirical estimates.

The problem with assumptions: Revisiting "The dark figure of sexual recidivism"

What is the actual rate of sexual recidivism given the well-known fact that many crimes go unreported? This is a difficult and important problem, and in "The dark figure of sexual recidivism," Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John (2019) attempt to make progress on it by "estimat[ing] actual recidivism rates . . . given observed rates of reoffending" (p. 171). In this article, we show that the math in their probabilistic model is flawed, but more importantly, we demonstrate that their conclusions follow ineluctably from their empirical assumptions and the unrepresentative empirical research they cite to benchmark their calculations. Scurich and John contend that their analysis undermines what they call the "orthodoxy in academic circles" (p. 173) of low sexual recidivism rates among individuals convicted of sexual offenses, but we underscore that their article does not analyze data in the traditional sense; instead, it just interprets past scholarly work through the use of strong assumptions in a way that, for practitioners, is likely to be opaque and misleading (and, for us, strays into speculation, argument, or advocacy and away from objective research). Our simple calculations show that their findings are highly sensitive to their assumptions, and we conclude that courts and others should recognize Scurich and John's work for what it is-a set of complex hypotheticals that are no more reliable than what judges and lawyers accomplish on their own by simply recognizing the basic problem that not all sexual offenses are reported.

Child pornography possession/receipt offenders: developing a forensic profile

Child pornography possession/receipt offenders are a controversial offender group due to mixed and occasionally divergent evidence about their risk profile, offending history and psychopathology. Using a population of male offenders who ever perpetrated a sexual offense from a federal jurisdiction in the central United States, the current study developed an exploratory post hoc empirical profile of these offenders. The profile has some success in the validation component of our study and showed significant associations with self-reported sexual abuse of child victims ages 3-12 years, but non-significant associations to adolescent and adult victims. It significantly linked to the conceptually expected victim group and the significant statistical effect withstood controls for generally robust indicators of antisocial conduct including antisocial personality disorder, arrest onset, total adverse childhood experiences, age and race. We view the findings as exploratory and encourage additional empirical study of this important offender group.

A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses

'The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70-0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14-1.84, p < 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument's norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators' workbook should be used.

Long-Term Recidivism of Mentally Disordered Offenders Considered "Dangerous to the Public" in Switzerland

Objectives: The commissions for risk assessment of offenders dangerous to the public were established in 1995 in Switzerland. The main goal was to reduce recidivism of offenders released into the community by means of identifying high-risk offenders and recommending measures for offender management. This study investigates long-term recidivism data of this high-risk cohort of offenders. Methods: Baseline data included risk assessment of one of the commissions, the type of index offense, and psychiatric disorders according to ICD-10 for the total cohort of offenders examined by the commissions between 1995 and 2009. Criminal records were drawn in 2019 for all offenders from the Swiss Federal Office of Justice. Results: From a total of 147 offenders 35 recidivated within a median time at risk of 9.1 years (31.8%), of which 10 (9.1%) recommitted a severe offense. Within the treatment status, sentences (imprisonment and preventive detention) were compared to court-ordered measures (in- or outpatient court ordered treatment, civil court mandated treatment, vocational training facility). There were no significant differences comparing treatment status, different diagnostic groups, type of index offense and other risk factors. Except of age at release (or relapse), which predicted recidivism with younger subjects showing higher recidivism rates (p = 0.014). Conclusion: Our study showed that over a long-term time at risk this high-risk cohort showed a similar recidivism rate as many other studies with different cohorts. With appropriate management recidivism rates in high-risk offenders can be lowered allowing them being consecutively reintegrated into society. The finding that younger subjects have higher recidivism rate was reproduced in this population.

The dark figure of sexual offending: A replication and extension

Studies of the dark figure of sexual offending using federal correctional clients reported significant evidence of previously unknown or hidden sexual violence, often among clients with no official criminal history. Unfortunately, research has produced variable estimates of how large the dark figure is. The current study sought to replicate recent studies of federal sexual offenders about the dark figure of sexual offending. We also extended the knowledge base by providing additional correlational analyses to see whether self-reported and official sexual offending have shared or divergent correlates. Overall, 73.8% of federal sexual offenders reported prior contact victims, which is higher than, but generally consistent with, prior prevalence estimates of 55-69% in studies of federal correctional clients. In the current data, clients convicted of child pornography possession or receipt and who had no official record of sexual abuse nevertheless reported contact sexual offenses in more than 59% of cases.

Illuminating the dark figure of sexual recidivism

Detected or reported ("observed") rates of sexual reoffending have long been recognized as underestimating the occurrence of actual sexual recidivism. Past attempts to bridge the gap between the two rates have been unsuccessful. Scurich and John try to reverse this course by presenting a simulation model to estimate the predicted actual sexual recidivism rates among individuals convicted of sexual offenses based on three parameters; they also apply these data to calibrate the sexual recidivism rates from four sexual recidivism studies. The accuracy of the predicted actual sexual recidivism rates is wholly dependent upon the reliability of the inputs to the model. This analysis relies upon scientific studies and literature to delve into the precision of the parameters of Scurich and John in relation to the accuracy of their predicted actual sexual recidivism rates and the validity of the calibration process. The results reveal that some of the assumptions by Scurich and John about the parameters are supported empirically, while others are not. Overall, the simulation model parameters suffer from significant deficiencies that likely produce inaccurate predicted actual sexual recidivism rates. Moreover, the methodologies of the comparison studies used in the calibration process do not actually meet the requirements of the analytic strategy of Scurich and John, which effectively invalidates their findings. Until computational strategies are employed that account for linear and nonlinear effects of model parameters, closing the gap between observed and actual sexual recidivism rates will remain elusive.

Detecting children's true and false denials of wrongdoing: Effects of question type and base rate knowledge

One common and unfortunately overlooked obstacle to the detection of sexual abuse is non-disclosure by children. Non-disclosure in forensic interviews may be expressed via concealment in response to recall questions or via active denials in response to recognition (e.g., yes/no) questions. In two studies, we evaluated whether adults' ability to discern true and false denials of wrongdoing by children varied as a function of the types of interview question the children were asked. Results suggest that adults are not good at detecting deceptive denials of wrongdoing by children, even when the adults view children narrate their experiences in response to recall questions rather than provide one word answers to recognition questions. In Study 1, adults exhibited a consistent "truth bias," leading them toward believing children, regardless of whether the children's denials were true or false. In Study 2, adults were given base-rate information about the occurrence of true and false denials (50% of each). The information eliminated the adults' truth bias but did not improve their overall detection accuracy, which still hovered near chance. Adults did, however, perceive children's denials as slightly more credible when they emerged in response to recall rather than recognition questions, especially when children were honestly denying wrongdoing. Results suggest the need for caution when evaluating adults' judgments of children's veracity when the children fail to disclose abuse.

Prevention of Sexual Child Abuse: Preliminary Results From an Outpatient Therapy Program

In Germany, access to outpatient treatment services devoted to the prevention of (further) sexual offenses against minors and child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses is often limited. The therapy project "Prevention of Sexual Abuse" tries to fill this gap by providing treatment to patients with a self-reported sexual interest in children and adolescents, irrespective of whether or not they are pedophilic or prosecuted by the legal justice system. Within the project, a treatment manual was developed which specifically addresses dynamic risk-factors in child sexual abusers and CSEM offenders. The treatment manual was conceived to reduce recidivism risk and to contribute to the enhancement of the patients' personal well-being. In this paper, results of the accompanying scientific research are presented: offense-supportive attitudes (N = 23), self-reported CSEM use (N = 10), emotional distress (N = 24), and participants' subjective risk perception of committing (further) sexual offenses (N = 25) reduced during the course of treatment. A reduction of offense-supportive attitudes was further observed from pre-intervention to 1-year follow-up (N = 8). Changes with regard to self-efficacy, quality of life, participants' self-perceived ability to control sexual impulses toward children and adolescents permanently, and several measures assessing different kinds of sexual recidivism did not, however, reach any level of significance. During an average observation period of 2.4 years, six patients confessed to have conducted new sexual exploitation material offenses, while no further sexual abuse cases were reported (N = 19). Due to the used research design and small sample sizes, treatment effects cannot be inferred and external validity is limited. This notwithstanding, results provide first evidence for a relationship between treatment participation and self-reported recidivism and psychological well-being.

The use of statistics in criminal cases: An introduction

Statistics are increasingly playing a crucial role in criminal cases. As the articles in this Special Issue illustrate, they can form the principal basis for expert testimony (e.g., with respect to risk assessments), heavily influence decisions about policy (e.g., constitutional doctrine governing police stop-and-frisk practices), and help courts evaluate the admissibility of expert testimony (e.g., via proficiency testing). Unfortunately, courts have not always been up to the task of analyzing the value of statistical analysis. In the course of introducing the articles in this issue, this article provides some examples of how statistical information can be misconstrued and suggests several reasons why judges may be reluctant to engage with such information.