Age at menarche and epithelial ovarian cancer risk: A meta-analysis and Mendelian randomization study

The Associations and Causal Relationships of Ovarian Cancer - Construction of a Prediction Model

Purpose

To explore the risk and protective factors for developing ovarian cancer and construct a risk prediction model.

Methods

Information related to patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer on the electronic medical record data platform of three tertiary hospitals in Guangdong Province from May 2018 to September 2023 was collected as the case group. Patients with non-ovarian cancer who attended the clinic during the same period were included in the control group. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent variables and explore the factors associated with the development of ovarian cancer. An ovarian cancer risk prediction model was constructed using a decision tree C4.5 algorithm. The ROC and calibration curves were plotted, and the model was validated.

Results

Logistic regression analysis identified independent risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer. The sample size was divided into training and test sets in a ratio of 7:3 for model construction and validation. The AUC of the training and test sets of the decision tree model were 0.961 (95% CI:0.944-0.978) and 0.902 (95% CI:0.840-0.964), respectively, and the optimal cut-off values and their coordinates were 0.532 (0.091, 0.957), and 0.474 (0.159, 0.842) respectively. The accuracies of the training and test sets were 93.3% and 84.2%, respectively, and their sensitivities were 95.7% and 84.2%, respectively.

Conclusion

The constructed ovarian cancer risk prediction model has good predictive ability, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of early warning of ovarian cancer in high-risk groups.

Global epidemiology of epithelial ovarian cancer

Globally, ovarian cancer is the eighth most common cancer in women, accounting for an estimated 3.7% of cases and 4.7% of cancer deaths in 2020. Until the early 2000s, age-standardized incidence was highest in northern Europe and North America, but this trend has changed; incidence is now declining in these regions and increasing in parts of eastern Europe and Asia. Ovarian cancer is a very heterogeneous disease and, even among the most common type, namely epithelial ovarian cancer, five major clinically and genetically distinct histotypes exist. Most high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas are now recognized to originate in the fimbrial ends of the fallopian tube. This knowledge has led to more cancers being coded as fallopian tube in origin, which probably explains some of the apparent declines in ovarian cancer incidence, particularly in high-income countries; however, it also suggests that opportunistic salpingectomy offers an important opportunity for prevention. The five histotypes share several reproductive and hormonal risk factors, although differences also exist. In this Review, we summarize the epidemiology of this complex disease, comparing the different histotypes, and consider the potential for prevention. We also discuss how changes in the prevalence of risk and protective factors might have contributed to the observed changes in incidence and what this might mean for incidence in the future.

Genetically predicted serum testosterone and risk of gynecological disorders: a Mendelian randomization study

Background

Testosterone plays a key role in women, but the associations of serum testosterone level with gynecological disorders risk are inconclusive in observational studies.

Methods

We leveraged public genome-wide association studies to analyze the effects of four testosterone related exposure factors on nine gynecological diseases. Causal estimates were calculated by inverse variance-weighted (IVW), MR-Egger and weighted median methods. The heterogeneity test was performed on the obtained data through Cochrane's Q value, and the horizontal pleiotropy test was performed on the data through MR-Egger intercept and MR-PRESSO methods. "mRnd" online analysis tool was used to evaluate the statistical power of MR estimates.

Results

The results showed that total testosterone and bioavailable testosterone were protective factors for ovarian cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 0.885, P = 0.012; OR = 0.871, P = 0.005) and endometriosis (OR = 0.805, P = 0.020; OR = 0.842, P = 0.028) but were risk factors for endometrial cancer (OR = 1.549, P < 0.001; OR = 1.499, P < 0.001) and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) (OR = 1.606, P = 0.019; OR = 1.637, P = 0.017). dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) is a protective factor against endometriosis (OR = 0.840, P = 0.016) and premature ovarian failure (POF) (OR = 0.461, P = 0.046) and a risk factor for endometrial cancer (OR= 1.788, P < 0.001) and PCOS (OR= 1.970, P = 0.014). sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) is a protective factor against endometrial cancer (OR = 0.823, P < 0.001) and PCOS (OR = 0.715, P = 0.031).

Conclusion

Our analysis suggested causal associations between serum testosterone level and ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, endometriosis, PCOS, POF.

Incessant ovulation: a review of its importance in predicting cancer risk

Estrous cycles are recurring changes in therian mammals induced by estrogen, progesterone, and other hormones culminating in endometrial proliferation, ovulation, and implantation if fertilization occurred. In women, the estrous cycle is the menstrual cycle; but, unlike most mammals, the end of an infertile cycle is marked by endometrial sloughing and the start of another without an anestrous phase. Women stop cycling at menopause, while in most mammals, cycles continue until death. Epidemiologic studies identified menarche, menopause, births, lactation, and oral contraceptive (OC) use as key risk factors for ovarian, breast, and endometrial cancers. A composite variable was created to estimate the number of cycles not interrupted by events that stop ovulation. Captured by the phrase "incessant ovulation", repetitive cycles were first postulated to affect ovarian cancer risk and later extended to breast and endometrial cancers. These associations could be explained by cumulative effects of repetitive tissue changes within reproductive organs, immune consequences of repetitive ovulation through the glycoprotein mucin 1, and residual effects of past ovulations that enhance ovarian production of testosterone. The latter two pathways could affect the risk for cancers in other organs not considered "reproductive".

Health outcomes of age at menarche in European women: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have shown an association between age at menarche (AAM) and the risk of gynecological diseases. However, the causality cannot be determined due to residual confounding.

METHODS

We conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study to evaluate the causal effect of AAM on several gynecological diseases, including endometriosis, female infertility, pre-eclampsia or eclampsia, uterine fibroids, breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and endometrial cancer. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were used as genetic instruments. The inverse variance weighted method was used as the primary approach and several other MR models were conducted for comparison. Cochran's Q test, Egger's intercept test, and leave-one-out analysis were conducted for sensitivity analysis. Radial MR analysis was conducted when detecting the existence of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

After Bonferroni correction and thorough sensitivity analysis, we observed a robust causal effect of AAM on endometrial cancer (odds ratio: 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.89; P = 4.61 × 10-5) and breast cancer (odds ratio: 0.94; 95% confidence interval: 0.90-0.98; P = .003). Sensitivity analysis found little evidence of horizontal pleiotropy. The inverse variance weighted method also detected weak evidence of associations of AAM with endometriosis and pre-eclampsia or eclampsia.

CONCLUSIONS

This MR study demonstrated a causal effect of AAM on gynecological diseases, especially for breast cancer and endometrial cancer, which indicates AAM might be a promising index to use for disease screening and prevention in clinical practice. Key messages What is already known on this topic - Observational studies have reported associations between age at menarche (AAM) and a variety of gynecological diseases but the causality has not been determined. What this study adds - This Mendelian randomization study demonstrated that AAM causally affects the risk of breast cancer and endometrial cancer. How this study might affect research, practice, or policy - The findings of our study imply that AAM could be a candidate marker for early screening of populations at higher risk of breast cancer and endometrial cancer.

Stratifying the risk of ovarian cancer incidence by histologic subtypes in the Korean Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Study (Ko-EVE)

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to verify the association between ovarian cancer (OC) and reproductive- and lifestyle-related risk factors stratified by the subtype of OC.

METHODS

In this matched case-control study derived from the Korean epithelial ovarian cancer study (Ko-EVE), we calculated the risk of OC subtypes using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) in a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

As a result of matching, 531 cases and 2,124 controls were selected. Smoking had positive association with high-grade serous (HGS) OC (OR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.15-6.30), whereas alcohol consumption had positive association with mucinous type (MUC) (OR = 3.63, 95% CI = 1.39-9.49). Obesity (≥30 kg/m² ) was associated with clear cell type (CLC) (OR = 4.57, 95% CI = 1.06-19.77). Spontaneous abortion was negatively associated with CLC (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.13-0.90), in contrast to HGS (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 0.96-2.15). Tubal ligation, hysterectomy, and oophorectomy were associated with decreased risk of HGS (OR = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.05-0.39; OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.07-0.73; OR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.08-0.97, respectively). Early menarche was strongly associated with increased risk of CLC, but not MUC (OR = 6.11, 95% CI = 1.53-24.42; OR = 3.23, 95% CI = 0.98-10.86). Further, childbirth (≥2 times) was negatively associated with endometrioid type OC and CLC (OR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.04-0.35; OR = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02-0.37, respectively). Oral contraceptives and hormone replacement therapy were negatively associated with OC (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.40-0.93; OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.32-0.80, respectively), and similar negative associations were also observed in HGS (OR = 0.69; OR = 0.60, respectively). Associations between family history of breast cancer and OC, regular exercise (≥5/week), and artificial abortion and OC were similar across all subtypes (OR = 3.92; OR = 0.41; OR = 0.72, respectively).

CONCLUSION

A heterogeneous association between some risk factors and the incidence of each subtype of epithelial OC was observed, suggesting that the carcinogenic mechanisms of each subtype may be partly different.

Genetic causal relationship between age at menarche and benign oesophageal neoplasia identified by a Mendelian randomization study

OBJECTIVE

The occurrence and development of oesophageal neoplasia (ON) is closely related to hormone changes. The aim of this study was to investigate the causal relationships between age at menarche (AAMA) or age at menopause (AAMO) and benign oesophageal neoplasia (BON) or malignant oesophageal neoplasia (MON) from a genetic perspective.

METHODS

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data of exposures (AAMA and AAMO) and outcomes (BON and MON) were obtained from the IEU OpenGWAS database. We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study between them. The inverse variance weighted (IVW) was used as the main analysis method, while the MR Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode were supplementary methods. The maximum likelihood, penalized weighted median, and IVW (fixed effects) were validation methods. We used Cochran's Q statistic and Rucker's Q statistic to detect heterogeneity. The intercept test of the MR Egger and global test of MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) were used to detect horizontal pleiotropy, and the distortion test of the MR-PRESSO analysis was used to detect outliers. The leave-one-out analysis was used to detect whether the MR analysis was affected by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). In addition, the MR robust adjusted profile score (MR-RAPS) method was used to assess the robustness of MR analysis.

RESULTS

The random-effects IVW results showed that AAMA had a negative genetic causal relationship with BON (odds ratio [OR] = 0.285 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.130-0.623], P = 0.002). The weighted median, maximum likelihood, penalized weighted median, and IVW (fixed effects) were consistent with random-effects IVW (P < 0.05). The MR Egger, simple mode and weighted mode results showed that AAMA had no genetic causal relationship with BON (P > 0.05). However, there were no causal genetic relationships between AAMA and MON (OR = 1.132 [95%CI: 0.621-2.063], P = 0.685), AAMO and BON (OR = 0.989 [95%CI: 0.755-1.296], P = 0.935), or AAMO and MON (OR = 1.129 [95%CI: 0.938-1.359], P = 0.200). The MR Egger, weighted median, simple mode, weighted mode, maximum likelihood, penalized weighted median, and IVW (fixed effects) were consistent with a random-effects IVW (P > 0.05). MR analysis results showed no heterogeneity, the horizontal pleiotropy and outliers (P > 0.05). They were not driven by a single SNP, and were normally distributed (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Only AAMA has a negative genetic causal relationship with BON, and no genetic causal relationships exist between AAMA and MON, AAMO and BON, or AAMO and MON. However, it cannot be ruled out that they are related at other levels besides genetics.

Mendelian randomization identifies age at menarche as an independent causal effect factor for gestational diabetes mellitus

AIMS

The relationship between age at menarche (AAM) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) risk is still inconclusive. This Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was used to assess systematically the causal relationship between AAM and GDM risk in human beings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with AAM, oestradiol levels, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) levels and bioavailable testosterone (BioT) levels were screened via the genome-wide association study enrolling individuals of European descent. Summary-level data for GDM (123 579 individuals) were extracted from the UK Biobank. An inverse-variance-weighted method was used for the primary MR analysis. Sensitivity analyses were examined via MR-Egger regression, heterogeneity tests, pleiotropy tests and leave-one-out tests. The directionality that exposure causes the outcome was verified using the MR-Steiger test.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted early AAM was found to have a causal positive association with a higher risk of GDM (odds ratio = 0.798, 95% confidence interval = 0.649-0.980, p = .031). In the multivariable MR analysis adjusted for oestradiol, SHBG and BioT levels, the causal association between AAM and GDM risk remained (odds ratio = 0.651, 95% confidence interval = 0.481-0.881, p = .006). A 1-SD increase in SHBG or BioT levels was significantly associated with a 41.4% decrease or 20.8% increase in the overall GDM risk (p = 3.71E-05 and .040), respectively. However, after controlling for AAM, oestradiol levels and BioT levels by multivariable MR analysis, there was no direct causal effect of SHBG levels on GDM risk (p = .084). Similarly, after adjusting for AAM, oestradiol levels and SHBG levels by multivariable MR analysis, there was no direct causal effect of BioT levels on the risk of GDM (p = .533). In addition, no direct causal association was identified between oestradiol levels and GDM risk in univariable MR analysis or multivariable MR analysis.

CONCLUSION

Genetic variants predisposing individuals to early AAM were independently associated with higher GDM risk. Further research is required to understand the mechanisms underlying this putative causative association. In addition, AAM may be helpful in clinical practice to identify women at risk for GDM; pregnant women who are young for menarche may need to take precautions before GDM develops.

Systematic review of Mendelian randomization studies on risk of cancer

BACKGROUND

We aimed to map and describe the current state of Mendelian randomization (MR) literature on cancer risk and to identify associations supported by robust evidence.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus up to 06/10/2020 for MR studies investigating the association of any genetically predicted risk factor with cancer risk. We categorized the reported associations based on a priori designed levels of evidence supporting a causal association into four categories, namely robust, probable, suggestive, and insufficient, based on the significance and concordance of the main MR analysis results and at least one of the MR-Egger, weighed median, MRPRESSO, and multivariable MR analyses. Associations not presenting any of the aforementioned sensitivity analyses were not graded.

RESULTS

We included 190 publications reporting on 4667 MR analyses. Most analyses (3200; 68.6%) were not accompanied by any of the assessed sensitivity analyses. Of the 1467 evaluable analyses, 87 (5.9%) were supported by robust, 275 (18.7%) by probable, and 89 (6.1%) by suggestive evidence. The most prominent robust associations were observed for anthropometric indices with risk of breast, kidney, and endometrial cancers; circulating telomere length with risk of kidney, lung, osteosarcoma, skin, thyroid, and hematological cancers; sex steroid hormones and risk of breast and endometrial cancer; and lipids with risk of breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large amount of research on genetically predicted risk factors for cancer risk, limited associations are supported by robust evidence for causality. Most associations did not present a MR sensitivity analysis and were thus non-evaluable. Future research should focus on more thorough assessment of sensitivity MR analyses and on more transparent reporting.

Serum Estradiol and 20 Site-Specific Cancers in Women: Mendelian Randomization Study

CONTEXT

The causal role of endogenous estradiol in cancers other than breast and endometrial cancer remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This Mendelian randomization study assessed the causal associations of endogenous 17β-estradiol (E2), the most potent estrogen, with cancer risk in women.

METHODS

As primary genetic instrument, we used a genetic variant in the CYP19A1 gene that is strongly associated with serum E2 levels. Summary statistics genetic data for the association of the E2 variant with breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer were obtained from large-scale consortia. We additionally estimated the associations of the E2 variant with any and 20 site-specific cancers in 198 825 women of European descent in UK Biobank. Odds ratios (OR) of cancer per 0.01 unit increase in log-transformed serum E2 levels in pmol/L were estimated using the Wald ratio.

RESULTS

Genetic predisposition to higher serum E2 levels was associated with increased risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer (OR 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P = 2.5 × 10-3), endometrial cancer overall (OR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.06-1.11; P = 7.3 × 10-13), and endometrial cancer of the endometrioid histology subtype (OR 1.10; 95% CI, 1.07-1.13; P = 2.1 × 10-11). There were suggestive associations with breast cancer overall (OR 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02; P = 0.02), ovarian cancer of the endometrioid subtype (OR 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10; P = 0.02), and stomach cancer (OR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00-1.26; P = 0.05), but no significant association with other cancers.

CONCLUSION

This study supports a role of E2 in the development of ER-positive breast cancer and endometrioid endometrial cancer but found no strong association with other cancers in women.

Review of Mendelian Randomization Studies on Ovarian Cancer

Ovarian cancer (OC) is one of the deadliest gynecological cancers worldwide. Previous observational epidemiological studies have revealed associations between modifiable environmental risk factors and OC risk. However, these studies are prone to confounding, measurement error, and reverse causation, undermining robust causal inference. Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis has been established as a reliable method to investigate the causal relationship between risk factors and diseases using genetic variants to proxy modifiable exposures. Over recent years, MR analysis in OC research has received extensive attention, providing valuable insights into the etiology of OC as well as holding promise for identifying potential therapeutic interventions. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the key principles and assumptions of MR analysis. Published MR studies focusing on the causality between different risk factors and OC risk are summarized, along with comprehensive analysis of the method and its future applications. The results of MR studies on OC showed that higher BMI and height, earlier age at menarche, endometriosis, schizophrenia, and higher circulating β-carotene and circulating zinc levels are associated with an increased risk of OC. In contrast, polycystic ovary syndrome; vitiligo; higher circulating vitamin D, magnesium, and testosterone levels; and HMG-CoA reductase inhibition are associated with a reduced risk of OC. MR analysis presents a2 valuable approach to understanding the causality between different risk factors and OC after full consideration of its inherent assumptions and limitations.

MicroRNA-145-5p regulates the proliferation of epithelial ovarian cancer cells via targeting SMAD4

BACKGROUND

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is one of the most prevalent malignancies affecting females worldwide; however, its etiology mechanism remains unclear. In various malignancies, miR-145-5p is a widely accepted and versatile miRNA. Therefore, our research focused on exploring the activity and etiology of miR-145-5p in the modulation of metastasis, migration, and proliferation of EOC cells. The direct reactions between the 3'UTRs of SMAD4 mRNA and miR-145-5p were verified using dual luciferase reporter test. SKOV-3 cells were subsequently transfected using miR-145-5p mimics. Cell migration, death, and proliferation were evaluated using MTT, flow cytometry, and Transwell test. In addition, SMAD4 transcription and translation were evaluated using qRT-PCR and Western blot.

RESULTS

We found that miR-145-5p expression was repressed prevalently in EOC tissues, apart from SMAD4 upregulation. Excessive miR-145-5p expression remarkably reinforced EOC cell death and repressed EOC cell proliferation. Furthermore, upregulated miR-145-5p expression noticeably repressed migration via MMP-2 and MMP-9 downregulation. Moreover, SMAD4 was downregulated via miR-145-5p transfection. The dual luciferase test revealed that miR-145-5p directly targeted SMAD4.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research suggests that miR-145-5p serves as a malignancy repressor and exerts an essential impact on inhibiting malignancy generation and reinforcing EOC death via targeting SMAD4. MiR-145-5p application could serve as a promising strategy to treat EOC.

Age at menarche and epithelial ovarian cancer risk: A meta-analysis and Mendelian randomization study

Age at menarche (AAM) was found to be associated with ovarian cancer risk in previous observational studies. However, the causality of this association remains unclear. Here, after systematic meta-analyses, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the causal effect of AAM in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) etiology. We performed meta-analyses including 11 410 cases and 1 163 117 noncases to quantitatively evaluate the association between AAM and ovarian cancer risk. In MR analyses, we used 25 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with AAM for Chinese and 390 SNPs for Europeans as instrumental variables. MR estimates were calculated using inverse-variance weighted methods from 1044 cases and 1172 controls in a Chinese genome-wide association study and validated by the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium and Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 studies with 29 396 cases and 68 502 controls of European ancestry. In meta-analyses, we observed an inverse association (odds ratio [OR] = 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93 to 1.00, P = 0.036) between per year older AAM and ovarian cancer risk in case-control studies, but no association was observed in cohort studies. In MR analyses, the OR of EOC risk per year increase in AAM was 0.81 (95% CI = 0.67 to 0.97, P = 0.026) in Chinese and 0.94 (95% CI = 0.90 to 0.98, P = 0.003) in Europeans, respectively. Our study supports a causal association between AAM and EOC risk.