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Ofori SK, Schwind JS, Sullivan KL, Chowell G, Cowling BJ, Fung ICH. Modeling the health impact of increasing vaccine coverage and nonpharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 in Ghana. Pathog Glob Health 2024; 118:262-276. [PMID: 38318877 PMCID: PMC11221473 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2024.2313787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Seroprevalence studies assessing community exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Ghana concluded that population-level immunity remained low as of February 2021. Thus, it is important to demonstrate how increasing vaccine coverage reduces the economic and public health impacts associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To that end, this study used a Susceptible-Exposed-Presymptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered-Dead-Vaccinated compartmental model to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and the role of public health interventions in Ghana. The impact of increasing vaccination rates and decline in transmission rates due to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on cumulative infections and deaths averted was explored under different scenarios. Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) was used to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of the outcomes to the parameters. Simulation results suggest that increasing the vaccination rate to achieve 50% coverage was associated with almost 60,000 deaths and 25 million infections averted. In comparison, a 50% decrease in the transmission coefficient was associated with the prevention of about 150,000 deaths and 50 million infections. The LHS-PRCC results indicated that in the context of vaccination rate, cumulative infections and deaths averted were most sensitive to vaccination rate, waning immunity rates from vaccination, and waning immunity from natural infection. This study's findings illustrate the impact of increasing vaccination coverage and/or reducing the transmission rate by NPI adherence in the prevention of COVID-19 infections and deaths in Ghana.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvia K. Ofori
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia
| | - Jessica S. Schwind
- Institute for Health Logistics & Analytics, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia
| | - Kelly L. Sullivan
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia
| | - Gerardo Chowell
- Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Benjamin J. Cowling
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
| | - Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia
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Chen SLS, Jen GHH, Hsu CY, Yen AMF, Lai CC, Yeh YP, Chen THH. A new approach to modeling pre-symptomatic incidence and transmission time of imported COVID-19 cases evolving with SARS-CoV-2 variants. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT : RESEARCH JOURNAL 2022; 37:441-452. [PMID: 36120386 PMCID: PMC9464357 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02305-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
There is paucity of the statistical model that is specified for data on imported COVID-19 cases with the unique global information on infectious properties of SARS-CoV-2 variant different from local outbreak data used for estimating transmission and infectiousness parameters via the established epidemic models. To this end, a new approach with a four-state stochastic model was proposed to formulate these well-established infectious parameters with three new parameters, including the pre-symptomatic incidence rate, the median of pre-symptomatic transmission time (MPTT) to symptomatic state, and the incidence (proportion) of asymptomatic cases using imported COVID-19 data. We fitted the proposed stochastic model to empirical data on imported COVID-19 cases from D614G to Omicron with the corresponding calendar periods according to the classification GISAID information on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variant between March 2020 and Jan 2022 in Taiwan. The pre-symptomatic incidence rate was the highest for Omicron followed by Alpha, Delta, and D614G. The MPTT (in days) increased from 3.45 (first period) ~ 4.02 (second period) of D614G until 3.94-4.65 of VOC Alpha but dropped to 3.93-3.49 of Delta and 2 days (only first period) of Omicron. The proportion of asymptomatic cases increased from 29% of D-614G period to 59.2% of Omicron. Modeling data on imported cases across strains of SARS-CoV-2 not only bridges the link between the underlying natural infectious properties elucidated in the previous epidemic models and different disease phenotypes of COVID-19 but also provides precision quarantine and isolation policy for border control in the face of various emerging SRAS-CoV-2 variants globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sam Li-Sheng Chen
- School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Grace Hsiao-Hsuan Jen
- School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chen-Yang Hsu
- Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Hsuchow Road, Taipei, 100 Taiwan
| | - Amy Ming-Fang Yen
- School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chao-Chih Lai
- Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Hsuchow Road, Taipei, 100 Taiwan
- Emergency Department of Taipei City Hospital, Ren-Ai Branch, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yen-Po Yeh
- Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Hsuchow Road, Taipei, 100 Taiwan
- Changhua County Public Health Bureau, Changhua, Taiwan
| | - Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen
- Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Hsuchow Road, Taipei, 100 Taiwan
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Weng Y, Yi GY. Estimation of the COVID-19 Mean Incubation Time: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Sensitivity Analysis. J Med Virol 2022; 94:4156-4169. [PMID: 35524338 PMCID: PMC9348507 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2022] [Revised: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Providing sensible estimates of the mean incubation time for COVID‐19 is important yet complex. This study aims to provide synthetic estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID‐19 by capitalizing on available estimates reported in the literature and exploring different ways to accommodate heterogeneity involved in the reported studies. Online databases between January 1, 2020 and May 20, 2021 are first searched to obtain estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID‐19, and meta‐analyses are then conducted to generate synthetic estimates. Heterogeneity of the studies is examined via the use of Cochran's Q statistic and Higgin's & Thompson's I2 statistic, and subgroup analyses are conducted using mixed effects models. The publication bias issue is assessed using the funnel plot and Egger's test. Using all those reported mean incubation estimates for COVID‐19, the synthetic mean incubation time is estimated to be 6.43 days with a 95% confidence interval (CI) [5.90, 6.96], and using all those reported mean incubation estimates together with those transformed median incubation estimates, the estimated mean incubation time is 6.07 days with a 95% CI [5.70, 6.45]. The reported estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID‐19 vary considerably due to multiple reasons, including heterogeneity and publication bias. To alleviate these issues, we take different angles to provide a sensible estimate of the mean incubation time of COVID‐19. Our analyses show that the mean incubation time of COVID‐19 between January 1, 2020 and May 20, 2021 ranges from 5.68 to 8.30 days.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yijia Weng
- Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A 5B7, Canada
| | - Grace Y Yi
- Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Department of Computer Science, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A 5B7, Canada
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