Accounting for ocean connectivity and hydroclimate in fish recruitment fluctuations within transboundary metapopulations

The role of larval transport on recruitment dynamics of red mullet (Mullus barbatus) in the Central Mediterranean Sea

Recruitment success depends on external forcing mechanisms such as ocean currents that affect the transport of eggs and larvae to favorable habitats. In this study, we investigated the role of larval transport in the recruitment of Mullus barbatus in the Central Mediterranean Sea by modeling the recruits' abundance as a function of both spawning stock size and dispersal rates of the species' early life stages. Our analysis involved twenty years of data on recruits and spawners abundance obtained from scientific trawl surveys, and data on larval dispersal rates derived from a combination of actualized published sources and original data. By calculating the estimates of retention, import and uniformity of the contribution of the spawning areas distributed among different Geographical Sub Areas (GSAs) in the Sicilian nurseries, we assessed their contribution to recruitment using modified Ricker stock size-recruits models. In particular, our results show that a high uniform contribution from spawning areas within GSA16, mainly related to the oceanographic patterns promoting larval retention, together with spawners abundance, significantly reduced the variability of red mullet recruitment. We further highlighted that when switching from a higher to a lower level of evenness of contribution to the recruit population from different spawning areas in the GSA16, the expected spawning stock abundance per recruit for a given fishing pattern can suffer a rapid short-term decline, which is likely to have negative consequences for stock assessment and management decisions. Our results suggest that larval transport plays a crucial role in explaining the interannual variability of recruitment, thereby contributing to a better understanding of stock size variation. Additionally, our study enhances the understanding of the spatial dynamics involved in the recruitment of this species, which is of increasing interest within fisheries management frameworks.

Spatial structuring of Mediterranean fisheries landings in relation to their seasonal and long-term fluctuations

The Western Mediterranean fisheries significantly contribute to the regional blue economy, despite evidence of ongoing, widespread overexploitation of stocks. Understanding the spatial distribution and population dynamics of species is crucial for comprehending fisheries dynamics combining local and regional scales, although the underlying processes are often neglected. In this study, we aimed to (i) evaluate the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations of crustacean, cephalopod, and fish populations in the Western Mediterranean, (ii) determine whether these fluctuations are driven by the spatial structure of the fisheries or synchronic species fluctuations, and (iii) compare groupings according to the individual species and life history-based groups. We used dynamic factor analysis to detect underlying patterns in a Landing Per Unit Effort (LPUE) time series (2009-2020) for 23 commercially important species and 33 ports in the Western Mediterranean. To verify the spatial structure of ports and species groupings we investigated the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations and common LPUE trends that exhibit non-homogeneous and species-specific trends, highlighting the importance of life history, environmental and demographic preferences. Long-term trends revealed spatial segregation with a north-south gradient, demonstrating complex population structures of Western Mediterranean resources. Seasonal patterns exhibited a varying spatial aggregation based on species-port combinations. These findings can inform the Common Fishery Policy on gaps challenging their regionalisation objectives in the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight the need for a nuanced and flexible approach and a better understanding of sub-regional processes for effective management and conservation - a current challenge for global fisheries. Our LPUE approach provides insight into population dynamics and changes in regional fisheries, relevant beyond the Mediterranean Sea.

The trade-off between condition and growth shapes juveniles' survival of harvested demersal fish of the Mediterranean sea

Fish body condition and growth are two interrelated traits closely associated with species life history and fitness, whose trade-off can ultimately impact population dynamics albeit seldom empirically demonstrated. They can intricately affect survival rates, which are particularly relevant for species under exploitation. Using individual spatiotemporal information in Northwestern Mediterranean, we document for the first time the existence of a trade-off between condition and growth in regulating survival dynamics in two important fish species for the Mediterranean fisheries that are characterized by contrasting life histories. For the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), a benthopelagic species, juveniles' body condition was detected to be positively linked to survival and negatively associated with the growth of this age group. For the red mullet (Mullus barbatus), the same pattern was observed for young adults. We also show that the observed patterns on a regional level have a clear spatial dependence as we found that observed body condition over a local scale had a broad effect on the population dynamics of the whole region, with the Ebro delta area emerging as the demographic engine of the two species. We discuss our results in the context of fisheries management and underline the importance of improving current stock assessment models and spatially based fishery management towards incorporating body condition and growth due to their influence on important parameters such as survival.

Sardines at a junction: Seascape genomics reveals ecological and oceanographic drivers of variation in the NW Mediterranean Sea

By evaluating genetic variation across the entire genome, one can address existing questions in a novel way while raising new ones. The latter includes how different local environments influence adaptive and neutral genomic variation within and among populations, providing insights into local adaptation of natural populations and their responses to global change. Here, under a seascape genomic approach, ddRAD data of 4609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 398 sardines (Sardina pilchardus) collected in 11 Mediterranean and one Atlantic site were generated. These were used along with oceanographic and ecological information to detect signals of adaptive divergence with gene flow across environmental gradients. The studied sardines constitute two clusters (F_ST  = 0.07), a pattern attributed to outlier loci, highlighting putative local adaptation. The trend in the number of days with sea surface temperature above 19°C, a critical threshold for successful sardine spawning, was crucial at all levels of population structuring with implications on the species' key biological processes. Outliers link candidate SNPs to the region's environmental heterogeneity. Our findings provide evidence for a dynamic equilibrium in which population structure is maintained by physical and ecological factors under the opposing influences of migration and selection. This dynamic in a natural system warrants continuous monitoring under a seascape genomic approach that might benefit from a temporal and more detailed spatial dimension. Our results may contribute to complementary studies aimed at providing deeper insights into the mechanistic processes underlying population structuring. Those are key to understanding and predicting future changes and responses of this highly exploited species in the face of climate change.

Spatial coalescent connectivity through multi-generation dispersal modelling predicts gene flow across marine phyla

Gene flow governs the contemporary spatial structure and dynamic of populations as well as their long-term evolution. For species that disperse using atmospheric or oceanic flows, biophysical models allow predicting the migratory component of gene flow, which facilitates the interpretation of broad-scale spatial structure inferred from observed allele frequencies among populations. However, frequent mismatches between dispersal estimates and observed genetic diversity prevent an operational synthesis for eco-evolutionary projections. Here we use an extensive compilation of 58 population genetic studies of 47 phylogenetically divergent marine sedentary species over the Mediterranean basin to assess how genetic differentiation is predicted by Isolation-By-Distance, single-generation dispersal and multi-generation dispersal models. Unlike previous approaches, the latter unveil explicit parents-to-offspring links (filial connectivity) and implicit links among siblings from a common ancestor (coalescent connectivity). We find that almost 70 % of observed variance in genetic differentiation is explained by coalescent connectivity over multiple generations, significantly outperforming other models. Our results offer great promises to untangle the eco-evolutionary forces that shape sedentary population structure and to anticipate climate-driven redistributions, altogether improving spatial conservation planning.

All shallow coastal habitats matter as nurseries for Mediterranean juvenile fish

Coastal zones are ecosystems of high economic value but exposed to numerous disturbances, while they represent nurseries for many fish species, raising the issue of the preservation of their functions and services. In this context, the juvenile fish assemblages of all types of habitats present in shallow coastal zones were studied on the south-east coast of France using underwater visual censuses in warm (June–July 2014) and cold (April 2015) periods. A total of fourteen habitat types were characterized, which could be grouped into three broad categories, rocky substrates (natural and artificial), sedimentary bottoms with all levels of granulometry, and seagrass beds including Cymodocea nodosa and Posidonia oceanica meadows; the ecotones or interfaces between the three broad habitat categories were individualized as particular habitat types. The abiotic and biotic descriptors of the 14 habitat types individualized did not vary with time, except for a higher cover percentage and canopy height of macrophytes in the warm period, which increased the three-dimensional structure of some habitats. The taxonomic composition and density of juvenile fish assemblages were analyzed using both multivariate and univariate descriptors, after grouping the 57 fish species recorded into 41 well-individualized taxa. Juvenile fishes were recorded in all habitat types, with higher mean species richness and abundance during the warm than the cold period. The richest habitats in terms of both fish species richness and abundance were the natural rocky substrates and the interfaces between Posidonia beds and the other habitats. Although juvenile fish assemblage composition differed among habitat types and between periods, the most abundant fish species were Atherina sp., Sarpa salpa, Gobiidae, Symphodus spp., Pagellus spp. and several Diplodus species, which colonized 7 up to 14 different habitat types (depending on taxa) during their juvenile life. Most species settled in one or a few specific habitats but rapidly colonized adjacent habitats when growing. This study provided evidence of the role of all types of shallow coastal habitats as fish nurseries and their varying pattern of occupation in space and time by the different juvenile stages. It highlighted the importance of the mosaic of habitats and interfaces for the complete development of all juvenile life stages of fishes, and for the preservation of a high diversity of coastal fish assemblages and fisheries resources in the Mediterranean Sea.

Integration of biophysical connectivity in the spatial optimization of coastal ecosystem services

Ecological connectivity in coastal oceanic waters is mediated by dispersion of the early life stages of marine organisms and conditions the structure of biological communities and the provision of ecosystem services. Integrated management strategies aimed at ensuring long-term service provision to society do not currently consider the importance of dispersal and larval connectivity. A spatial optimization model is introduced to maximise the potential provision of ecosystem services in coastal areas by accounting for the role of dispersal and larval connectivity. The approach combines a validated coastal circulation model that reproduces realistic patterns of larval transport along the coast, which ultimately conditions the biological connectivity and productivity of an area, with additional spatial layers describing potential ecosystem services. The spatial optimization exercise was tested along the coast of Central Chile, a highly productive area dominated by the Humboldt Current. Results show it is unnecessary to relocate existing management areas, as increasing no-take areas by 10% could maximise ecosystem service provision, while improving the spatial representativeness of protected areas and minimizing social conflicts. The location of protected areas was underrepresented in some sections of the study domain, principally due to the restriction of the model to rocky subtidal habitats. Future model developments should encompass the diversity of coastal ecosystems and human activities to inform integrative spatial management. Nevertheless, the spatial optimization model is innovative not only for its integrated ecosystem perspective, but also because it demonstrates that it is possible to incorporate time-varying biophysical connectivity within the optimization problem, thereby linking the dynamics of exploited populations produced by the spatial management regime.