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Wang Z, Li N, Xu R, Ying Z, Ruan X, Wang T, Liao W, Su Y. Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11594. [PMID: 38911490 PMCID: PMC11192646 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2023] [Revised: 05/25/2024] [Accepted: 06/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Climatic change is a challenge for plant conservation due to plants' limited dispersal abilities. The survival and sustainable development of plants directly depend on the availability of suitable habitats. In this study, we employed an optimized MaxEnt model to evaluate the relative contribution of each environmental variable and predict the suitable habitat for Alsophila costularis under past, current, and future periods, which is an endangered relict tree fern known as a living fossil. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene scenarios, we adopted two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models: CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM. The BCC-CSM2-MR model was used for future projections. The results revealed that temperature annual range (Bio7) contributed most to the model construction with an optimal range of 13.74-22.44°C. Species distribution modeling showed that current suitable areas were mainly located in most areas of Yunnan, most areas of Hainan, most areas of Taiwan, southeastern Tibet, southwestern Guizhou, western Guangxi, southern Sichuan, and southern Guangdong, with an area of 35.90 × 104 km2. The suitable habitat area expanded northward in Yunnan from the Last Interglacial to the LGM under the CCSM4 model, while a significant contraction toward southwestern Yunnan was found under the MIROC-ESM model. Furthermore, the potential distributions during the Mid-Holocene were more widespread in Yunnan compared to those under current period. It is predicted that in the future, the range will significantly expand to northern Yunnan and western Guizhou. Almost all centroids of suitable habitats were distributed in southeastern Yunnan under different periods. The stable areas were located in southwestern Yunnan in all scenarios. The simulation results could provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of reasonable conservation and management measures to mitigate the effects of future climate change for A. costularis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhen Wang
- School of Life SciencesSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Ning Li
- School of Life SciencesSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Ruixiang Xu
- School of Life SciencesSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Zhanming Ying
- School of Life SciencesSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
- College of Chemistry, Xiangtan UniversityXiangtanChina
| | - Xiaoxian Ruan
- School of Life SciencesSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Ting Wang
- Research Institute of Sun Yat‐sen University in ShenzhenShenzhenChina
- College of Life Sciences, South China Agricultural UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Wenbo Liao
- School of Life SciencesSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Yingjuan Su
- School of Life SciencesSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
- Research Institute of Sun Yat‐sen University in ShenzhenShenzhenChina
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Gómez-Díaz JA, Carvajal-Hernández CI, Dáttilo W. Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0284007. [PMID: 38330066 PMCID: PMC10852229 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 02/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge Antonio Gómez-Díaz
- Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, México
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, México
| | | | - Wesley Dáttilo
- Red de Ecoetología, Instituto de Ecología A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz, México
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3
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Rendón-Salinas E, Alonso A, García-Serrano E, Valera-Bermejo A, Quesada M. The monarch butterfly in Mexico: a conservation model. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2023; 60:101112. [PMID: 37837693 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2023.101112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2023] [Revised: 09/01/2023] [Accepted: 09/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/16/2023]
Abstract
Each fall, millions of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L.) travel from Canada and the United States to overwinter in Mexico and California. In 2022, the IUCN listed migratory monarchs as endangered because of their population decline. The main accepted drivers are widespread use of herbicides, effects of climate, and land use change that causes habitat loss. We analyzed the main actions taken to officially protect the overwintering sites and the migration phenomenon with the establishment of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in 2000. The conservation of the monarch overwintering sites in Mexico is an example of continuous work from their discovery to the present. We highlight the importance of monitoring the areas covered by overwintering monarchs in Mexico. These colonies represent the largest concentrations of monarch populations in the world. In the last 10 years, the average area covered by monarchs was 2.72 ( ± 0.47 SE) hectares.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alfonso Alonso
- Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | - Mauricio Quesada
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad (UNAM), Morelia, Mich., Mexico
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4
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Mata-Guel EO, Soh MCK, Butler CW, Morris RJ, Razgour O, Peh KSH. Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:1200-1224. [PMID: 36990691 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2022] [Revised: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023]
Abstract
In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik O Mata-Guel
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Malcolm C K Soh
- National Park Boards, 1 Cluny Road, Singapore, 259569, Singapore
| | - Connor W Butler
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Rebecca J Morris
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Orly Razgour
- Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK
| | - Kelvin S-H Peh
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
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Xu W, Jiang J, Lin HY, Chen TY, Zhang S, Wang T. Assessment of the impact of climate change on endangered conifer tree species by considering climate and soil dual suitability and interspecific competition. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 877:162722. [PMID: 36934927 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162722] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2022] [Revised: 03/04/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate change results in the habitat loss of many conifer tree species and jeopardizes species biodiversity and forest ecological functions. Delineating suitable habitats for tree species via climate niche model (CNM) is widely used to predict the impact of climate change and develop conservation and management strategies. However, the robustness of CNM is broadly debated as it usually does not consider soil and competition factors. Here we developed a new approach to combine soil variables with CNM and evaluate interspecific competition potential in the niche overlapping areas. We used an endangered conifer species - Chamaecyparis formosensis (red cypress) - as a case study to predict the impact of climate change. We developed a novel approach to integrate the climate niche model and soil niche model predictions and considered interspecific competition to predict the impacts of climate change on tree species. Our results show that the suitable habitat for red cypress would decrease significantly in the future with an additional threat from the competition of an oak tree species. Our approach and results may represent significant implications in making conservation strategies and evaluating the impacts of climate change, and providing the direction of the refinement of the ecological niche model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenhuan Xu
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Jing Jiang
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Huan-Yu Lin
- Taiwan Forestry Research Institute, 53 Nanhai Rd., Taipei 100, Taiwan; Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, National Ilan University, 1 Shennong Rd., Section 1, Yilan City, Yilan County 260, Taiwan
| | - Tze-Ying Chen
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, National Ilan University, 1 Shennong Rd., Section 1, Yilan City, Yilan County 260, Taiwan
| | - Shiyi Zhang
- Asia-Pacific Network for Sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation, Beijing 100102, People's Republic of China
| | - Tongli Wang
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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Shen Y, Tu Z, Zhang Y, Zhong W, Xia H, Hao Z, Zhang C, Li H. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two relict Liriodendron species by coupling the MaxEnt model and actual physiological indicators in relation to stress tolerance. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 322:116024. [PMID: 36055092 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2022] [Revised: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 08/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has a crucial impact on the distributions of plants, especially relict species. Hence, predicting the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of relict plants is critical for their future conservation. Liriodendron plants are relict trees, and only two natural species have survived: L. chinense and L. tulipifera. However, the extent of the impact of future climate change on the distributions of these two Liriodendron species remains unclear. Therefore, we predicted the suitable habitat distributions of two Liriodendron species under present and future climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling. The results showed that the area of suitable habitats for two Liriodendron species would significantly decrease. However, the two relict species presented different habitat shift patterns, with a local contraction of suitable habitat for L. chinense and a northward shift in suitable habitat for L. tulipifera, indicating that changes in environmental factors will affect the distributions of these species. Among the environmental factors assessed, May precipitation induced the largest impact on the L. chinense distribution, while L. tulipifera was significantly affected by precipitation in the driest quarter. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between habitat suitability and Liriodendron stress tolerance, we analyzed six physiological indicators of stress tolerance by sampling twelve provenances of L. chinense and five provenances of L. tulipifera. The composite index of six physiological indicators was significantly negatively correlated with the habitat suitability of the species. The stress tolerance of Liriodendron plants in highly suitable areas was lower than that in areas with moderate or low suitability. Overall, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impacts of climate change, informing future conservation efforts for Liriodendron species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yufang Shen
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Zhonghua Tu
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Yali Zhang
- College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Weiping Zhong
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Hui Xia
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Ziyuan Hao
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Chengge Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Huogen Li
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
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7
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Margolis EQ, Guiterman CH, Chavardès RD, Coop JD, Copes‐Gerbitz K, Dawe DA, Falk DA, Johnston JD, Larson E, Li H, Marschall JM, Naficy CE, Naito AT, Parisien M, Parks SA, Portier J, Poulos HM, Robertson KM, Speer JH, Stambaugh M, Swetnam TW, Tepley AJ, Thapa I, Allen CD, Bergeron Y, Daniels LD, Fulé PZ, Gervais D, Girardin MP, Harley GL, Harvey JE, Hoffman KM, Huffman JM, Hurteau MD, Johnson LB, Lafon CW, Lopez MK, Maxwell RS, Meunier J, North M, Rother MT, Schmidt MR, Sherriff RL, Stachowiak LA, Taylor A, Taylor EJ, Trouet V, Villarreal ML, Yocom LL, Arabas KB, Arizpe AH, Arseneault D, Tarancón AA, Baisan C, Bigio E, Biondi F, Cahalan GD, Caprio A, Cerano‐Paredes J, Collins BM, Dey DC, Drobyshev I, Farris C, Fenwick MA, Flatley W, Floyd ML, Gedalof Z, Holz A, Howard LF, Huffman DW, Iniguez J, Kipfmueller KF, Kitchen SG, Lombardo K, McKenzie D, Merschel AG, Metlen KL, Minor J, O'Connor CD, Platt L, Platt WJ, Saladyga T, Stan AB, Stephens S, Sutheimer C, Touchan R, Weisberg PJ. The North American tree‐ring fire‐scar network. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ellis Q. Margolis
- New Mexico Landscapes Field Station U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Santa Fe New Mexico USA
| | | | - Raphaël D. Chavardès
- Institut de recherche sur les forêts Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
| | - Jonathan D. Coop
- School of Environment and Sustainability Western Colorado University Gunnison Colorado USA
| | - Kelsey Copes‐Gerbitz
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Denyse A. Dawe
- Northern Forestry Centre Canadian Forest Service Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Donald A. Falk
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, ENR2 Building University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | | | - Evan Larson
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Society University of Wisconsin‐Platteville Platteville Wisconsin USA
| | - Hang Li
- Department of Earth and Environmental Systems Indiana State University Terre Haute Indiana USA
| | | | | | - Adam T. Naito
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Geographical Sciences Northern Michigan University Marquette Michigan USA
| | - Marc‐André Parisien
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Sean A. Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service Missoula Montana USA
| | - Jeanne Portier
- Forest Resources and Management Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Helen M. Poulos
- College of the Environment Wesleyan University Middletown Connecticut USA
| | | | - James H. Speer
- Department of Earth and Environmental Systems Indiana State University Terre Haute Indiana USA
| | - Michael Stambaugh
- School of Natural Resources University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA
| | - Thomas W. Swetnam
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Alan J. Tepley
- Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Centre Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia USA
| | - Ichchha Thapa
- Department of Earth and Environmental Systems Indiana State University Terre Haute Indiana USA
| | - Craig D. Allen
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - Yves Bergeron
- Institut de recherche sur les forêts Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
- Département des Sciences Biologiques Université du Québec à Montréal Montreal Quebec Canada
| | - Lori D. Daniels
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Peter Z. Fulé
- School of Forestry Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - David Gervais
- Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Québec Québec Canada
| | | | - Grant L. Harley
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences University of Idaho Moscow Idaho USA
| | - Jill E. Harvey
- Department of Natural Resource Science Thompson Rivers University Kamloops British Columbia Canada
| | - Kira M. Hoffman
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- Bulkley Valley Research Centre Smithers British Columbia Canada
| | - Jean M. Huffman
- Tall Timbers Research Station Tallahassee Florida USA
- Department of Biological Sciences Louisiana State University Baton Rouge Louisiana USA
| | - Matthew D. Hurteau
- Department of Biology University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - Lane B. Johnson
- Cloquet Forestry Center University of Minnesota Cloquet Minnesota USA
| | - Charles W. Lafon
- Department of Geography Texas A&M University College Station Texas USA
| | - Manuel K. Lopez
- New Mexico Landscapes Field Station U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Santa Fe New Mexico USA
| | | | - Jed Meunier
- Division of Forestry Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Madison Wisconsin USA
| | - Malcolm North
- USFS PSW Research Station Mammoth Lakes California USA
| | - Monica T. Rother
- Department of Environmental Sciences University of North Carolina‐Wilmington Wilmington North Carolina USA
| | - Micah R. Schmidt
- College of Forestry Oregon State University Corvallis Oregon USA
| | - Rosemary L. Sherriff
- Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Analysis Humboldt State University Arcata California USA
| | | | - Alan Taylor
- Department of Geography and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute The Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania USA
| | - Erana J. Taylor
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Valerie Trouet
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Miguel L. Villarreal
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center Moffett Field California USA
| | - Larissa L. Yocom
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah USA
| | - Karen B. Arabas
- Department of Environmental Science Willamette University Salem Oregon USA
| | - Alexis H. Arizpe
- Gregor Mendel Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna BioCenter Vienna Austria
| | - Dominique Arseneault
- Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie Université du Québec à Rimouski Rimouski Quebec Canada
| | | | - Christopher Baisan
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Erica Bigio
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
| | - Franco Biondi
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
| | | | - Anthony Caprio
- Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks Three Rivers California USA
| | | | - Brandon M. Collins
- Center for Fire Research and Outreach University of California Berkeley California USA
| | - Daniel C. Dey
- US Forest Service, Northern Research Station Columbia Missouri USA
| | - Igor Drobyshev
- Swedish Agricultural University, Southern Swedish Research Centre Uppsala Sweden
- Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Quebec Canada
| | | | | | - William Flatley
- Department of Geography University of Central Arkansas Conway Arkansas USA
| | | | - Ze'ev Gedalof
- Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics University of Guelph Guelph Ontario Canada
| | - Andres Holz
- Department of Geography Portland State University Portland Oregon USA
| | - Lauren F. Howard
- Department of Biology Arcadia University Glenside Pennsylvania USA
| | - David W. Huffman
- Ecological Restoration Institute Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Jose Iniguez
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Kurt F. Kipfmueller
- Department of Geography, Environment, and Society University of Minnesota Minneapolis Minnesota USA
| | | | - Keith Lombardo
- Southern California Research Learning Center San Diego California USA
| | - Donald McKenzie
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | | | | | - Jesse Minor
- University of Maine System Farmington Maine USA
| | - Christopher D. O'Connor
- Forestry Sciences Laboratory Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service Missoula Montana USA
| | - Laura Platt
- Department of Geography Portland State University Portland Oregon USA
| | - William J. Platt
- Department of Biological Sciences Louisiana State University Baton Rouge Louisiana USA
| | - Thomas Saladyga
- Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences Concord University Athens West Virginia USA
| | - Amanda B. Stan
- Department of Geography, Planning and Recreation Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Scott Stephens
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California USA
| | - Colleen Sutheimer
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
| | - Ramzi Touchan
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Peter J. Weisberg
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
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8
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Prioritizing conservation areas and vulnerability analyses of the genus Pinus L. (Pinaceae) in Mexico. J Nat Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2022.126171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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9
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Effects of acute heat stress on liver damage, apoptosis and inflammation of pikeperch (Sander lucioperca). J Therm Biol 2022; 106:103251. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2021] [Revised: 03/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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10
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Canturk U, Kulaç Ş. The effects of climate change scenarios on Tilia ssp. in Turkey. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2021; 193:771. [PMID: 34738174 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-021-09546-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 10/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change will cause significant changes in climate parameters, especially temperature increases and changes in precipitation regimes worldwide. Since the life of living things is directly related to climate parameters, this process will inevitably affect all living things. The plants will be the most affected living things from this process because they do not have an effective movement and migration mechanism. Therefore, global climate change will cause significant species and population losses in plants. To minimize the potential loss of species and populations, it is necessary to predetermine the potential changes in species' distribution areas and take necessary actions. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine the distribution areas of three Tilia species (Tilia tomentosa, Tilia cordata, and Tilia platyphyllos), which have economic, ecologic, and social value and show the local distribution in Turkey and to determine how they will be affected by global climate change. Within this scope, nineteen bioclimatic variables, Emberger climate classification, aspect, and topographic altitude variable were used in the modeling process. By modeling the scenarios SSP 245 and SSP 585, the projections were made for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 regarding the areas suitable for the growth of these species and how these areas will change compared to their current situation. The results suggest that the distribution areas of all three Tilia species will change due to climate change, and the area of loss will be 43.5 km2 (4%) for T. tomentosa, 9953.6 km2 (15%) for T. platyphyllos, and 448.0 km2 (19%) for T. cordata. Moreover, a more important point here is that increases and decreases will be observed in their distribution areas, and these changes will occur in a short process and at significant levels. In this case, the migration mechanism that these species will require must be provided by humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ugur Canturk
- Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Düzce University, 81620, Düzce, Turkey
| | - Şemsettin Kulaç
- Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Düzce University, 81620, Düzce, Turkey.
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Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites. FORESTS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/f12010069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Research Highlights: Reciprocal altitudinal transplants of Abies religiosa seedlings within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) allow prediction of the impacts of climatic change, because they grow in sites with a climate that differs from that of their origin. Background and Objectives: Climatic change is generating a mismatch between the sites currently occupied by forest populations and the climate to which they have adapted. This study determined the effect on the survival and growth of A. religiosa seedlings of transfer to sites that were warmer or colder than that of the origin of their seeds. Materials and Methods: Eleven provenances of A. religiosa, collected along an altitudinal gradient (3000 to 3550 m a.s.l.), were assayed in common gardens in three sites of contrasting altitude: 3400, 3000 and 2600 m a.s.l. The results were evaluated by fitting a response curve with a mixed model. Results: The climate transfer distance for the seasonal balance between the temperature conducive to growth (degree days above 5 °C) and the available precipitation (a ratio expressed as dryness index) dominated the shape of the response function curve. The rainy season (June–October) dryness index transfer distance was critical for survival, while that of the cold and dry season (November–February) was critical for aerial biomass, and the annual index was critical for the increase in basal diameter. The effect of climatic transfer distance is much more negative (triggering about 45% mortality) when transfer is toward warmer and dryer sites (at 400 m lower in altitude, +1.9 °C warmer and 16% less precipitation), than when shifting toward colder and wetter sites (400 m higher in altitude, resulting in 95% survival). Conclusions: The projected higher temperatures and lower precipitation due to climatic change will undoubtedly cause severe mortality in young A. religiosa seedlings. A 400 m shift upwards in altitude to compensate for climatic change (assisted migration) appears to be a feasible management action.
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Assisted Migration Field Tests in Canada and Mexico: Lessons, Limitations, and Challenges. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f12010009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023]
Abstract
Assisted migration of forest tree populations through reforestation and restoration is a climate change adaptation strategy under consideration in many jurisdictions. Matching climates in which seed sources evolved with near future climates projected for plantation sites should help reduce maladaptation and increase plantation health and productivity. For threatened tree species, assisted migration outside of the species range could help avert extinction. Here, we examine lessons, limitations, and challenges of assisted migration through the lens of three assisted migration field trials of conifers in Canada and Mexico: Pinus albicaulis Engelm., an endangered subalpine tree species in the mountains of western North America; the Picea glauca (Moench) Voss × P. engelmannii Parry ex Engelm hybrid complex, of great economic and ecological importance in western Canada, and Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., a tree species that provides overwintering sites for the monarch butterfly. We conclude that: (a) negative impacts of climate change on productivity of Picea glauca × P. engelmannii may be mitigated by planting seed sources from locations that are 3 °C mean coldest month temperature warmer than the plantation; (b) it is possible to establish Pinus albicaulis outside of its current natural distribution at sites that have climates that are within the species’ modelled historic climatic niche, although developing disease-resistant trees through selective breeding is a higher priority in the short term; (c) Abies religiosa performs well when moved 400 m upward in elevation and local shrubs (such as Baccharis conferta Kunth) are used as nurse plants; (d) new assisted migration field trials that contain populations from a wide range of climates tested in multiple disparate climates are needed, despite the costs; and (e) where naturalization of a migrated tree species in recipient ecosystem is viewed as undesirable, the invasive potential of the tree species should be assessed prior to large scale establishment, and stands should be monitored regularly following establishment.
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Species, Climatypes, Climate Change, and Forest Health: A Conversion of Science to Practice for Inland Northwest (USA) Forests. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11121237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Research Highlights: This paper integrates disparate research results pertaining to climate change impacts to 12 co-occurring forest tree species and their climatypes such that management options for the ecosystem as a whole become discernible. Background and Objectives: The ecosystem under analysis is the Thuja-Tsuga forest ecosystem, occupying ca. 121,500 km2 in a largely mountainous setting in the interior northwest, USA. Our goal is to present land management options tied directly to climate-change in a straightforward framework for both the current and future generations. Materials and Methods: By merging synecological and genecological concepts in a climatic framework, we simplify complex interactions in a manner that relates directly to climate change impacts. Species and climatype distributions are redefined in terms of mean annual temperature and elevation of forested landscapes. Results: For each 2 °C increase in temperature, plant associations should shift upwards ca. 400 m, provided precipitation remains at or near contemporary levels, which, for this ecosystem, vary between 300 mm and 1450 mm. Management guidelines are developed for (a) selecting climatypes of the species suited to the climate at the leading edge of the migration front, (b) anticipating decline at the trailing edge, and (c) converting climatypes in areas where species should persist. Conclusions: Our results can provide robust strategies for adapting forest management to the effects of climate change, but their effectiveness is dependent on the implementation of global warming mitigation actions.
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