Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species

Genetic differentiation across a steep and narrow environmental gradient: Quantitative genetic and genomic insights into Lake Superior populations of Quercus rubra

Adaptive differentiation of traits and underlying loci can occur at a small geographical scale if natural selection is stronger than countervailing gene flow and drift. We investigated this hypothesis using coupled quantitative genetic and genomic approaches for a wind-pollinated tree species, Quercus rubra, along the steep, narrow gradient of the Lake Superior coast that encompasses four USDA Hardiness Zones within 100 km. For the quantitative genetic component of this study, we examined phenotypic differentiation among eight populations in a common garden, measuring seed mass, germination, height, stem diameter, leaf number, specific leaf area and survival. For the genomic component, we quantified genetic differentiation for 26 populations from the same region using RAD-seq. Because hybridisation with Quercus ellipsoidalis occurs in other parts of the species' range, we included two populations of this congener for comparison. In the common garden study, we found a strong signal of population differentiation that was significantly associated with at least one climate factor for nine of 10 measured traits. In contrast, we found no evidence of genomic differentiation among populations based on FST or any other measures. However, both distance-based and genotype-environment association analyses identified loci showing the signature of selection, with one locus in common across five analyses. This locus was associated with the minimum temperature of the coldest month, a factor that defines the climate zones and was also significant in the common garden analyses. In addition, we documented introgression from Q. ellipsoidalis into Q. rubra, with rates of introgression correlated with the climate gradient. In sum, this study reveals signatures of selection at the quantitative trait and genomic level consistent with climate adaptation, a pattern that is more often documented at a much broader geographical scale, especially in long-lived wind-pollinated species.

Phenological physiology: seasonal patterns of plant stress tolerance in a changing climate

The physiological challenges posed by climate change for seasonal, perennial plants include increased risk of heat waves, postbudbreak freezing ('false springs'), and droughts. Although considerable physiological work has shown that the traits conferring tolerance to these stressors - thermotolerance, cold hardiness, and water deficit stress, respectively - are not static in time, they are frequently treated as such. In this review, I synthesize the recent literature on predictable seasonal - and therefore, phenological - patterns of acclimation and deacclimation to heat, cold, and water-deficit stress in perennials, focusing on woody plants native to temperate climates. I highlight promising, high-throughput techniques for quantifying thermotolerance, cold hardiness, and drought tolerance. For each of these forms of stress tolerance, I summarize the current balance of evidence regarding temporal patterns over the course of a year and suggest a characteristic temporal scale in these responses to environmental stress. In doing so, I offer a synthetic framework of 'phenological physiology', in which understanding and leveraging seasonally recurring (phenological) patterns of physiological stress acclimation can facilitate climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Strategies to mitigate shifts in red oak (Quercus sect. Lobatae) distribution under a changing climate

Red oaks (Quercus sect. Lobatae) are a taxonomic group of hardwood trees, which occur in swamp forests, subtropical chaparral and savannahs from Columbia to Canada. They cover a wide range of ecological niches, and many species are thought to be able to cope with current trends in climate change. Genus Quercus encompasses ca. 500 species, of which ca. 80 make up sect. Lobatae. Species diversity is greatest within the southeastern USA and within the northern and eastern regions of Mexico. This review discusses the weak reproductive barriers between species of red oaks and the effects this has on speciation and niche range. Distribution and diversity have been shaped by drought adaptations common to the species of sect. Lobatae, which enable them to fill various xeric niches across the continent. Drought adaptive traits of this taxonomic group include deciduousness, deep tap roots, ring-porous xylem, regenerative stump sprouting, greater leaf thickness and smaller stomata. The complex interplay between these anatomical and morphological traits has given red oaks features of drought tolerance and avoidance. Here, we discuss physiological and genetic components of these adaptations to address how many species of sect. Lobatae reside within xeric sites and/or sustain normal metabolic function during drought. Although extensive drought adaptation appears to give sect. Lobatae a resilience to climate change, aging tree stands, oak life history traits and the current genetic structures place many red oak species at risk. Furthermore, oak decline, a complex interaction between abiotic and biotic agents, has severe effects on red oaks and is likely to accelerate species decline and fragmentation. We suggest that assisted migration can be used to avoid species fragmentation and increase climate change resilience of sect. Lobatae.

Assisted migration is plausible for a boreal tree species under climate change: A quantitative and population genetics study of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in western Canada

A novel method was tested for improving tree breeding strategies that integrate quantitative and population genetics based on range‐wide reciprocal transplant experiments. Five reciprocal common garden tests of Populus tremuloides were investigated including 6450 trees across western Canada focusing on adaptation traits and growth. Both genetic parameters and home‐site transplant models were evaluated. We found a genetic trade‐off between growth and early spring leaf flush and late fall senescence. Coefficients of phenotypic variation (CVp) of cell lysis (CL), a measure of freezing injury, shrank from 0.28 to 0.10 during acclimation in the fall, and the CVp slope versus the freezing temperature was significantly different from zero (R² = 0.33, p = .02). There was more between‐population genetic variation in fall phenology than in spring leaf phenology. We suggest that P. tremuloides demonstrated a discrepancy between the ecological optimum and the physiological optimum minimum winter temperature. The sub‐optimal growing condition of P. tremuloides is potentially caused by the warmer ecological optimum than the physiological optimum. Assisted migration and breeding of fast growers to reforest cooler plantation sites can improve productivity. Transferring the study populations to less than 4°C of extreme minimum temperature appears safe for reforestation aligning with the historical recolonization direction of the species. This is equivalent to a 5–10° latitudinal northward movement. Fall frost hardiness is an effective criterion for family selection in the range tested in this study.

Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests

The sensitivity of forests to near-term warming and associated precipitation shifts remains uncertain^1-9. Herein, using a 5-year open-air experiment in southern boreal forest, we show divergent responses to modest climate alteration among juveniles of nine co-occurring North American tree species. Warming alone (+1.6 °C or +3.1 °C above ambient temperature) or combined with reduced rainfall increased the juvenile mortality of all species, especially boreal conifers. Species differed in growth responses to warming, ranging from enhanced growth in Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum to severe growth reductions in Abies balsamea, Picea glauca and Pinus strobus. Moreover, treatment-induced changes in both photosynthesis and growth help explain treatment-driven changes in survival. Treatments in which species experienced conditions warmer or drier than at their range margins resulted in the most adverse impacts on growth and survival. Species abundant in southern boreal forests had the largest reductions in growth and survival due to climate manipulations. By contrast, temperate species that experienced little mortality and substantial growth enhancement in response to warming are rare throughout southern boreal forest and unlikely to rapidly expand their density and distribution. Therefore, projected climate change will probably cause regeneration failure of currently dominant southern boreal species and, coupled with their slow replacement by temperate species, lead to tree regeneration shortfalls with potential adverse impacts on the health, diversity and ecosystem services of regional forests.

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Managing Fire in a Changing Climate

As the effects of climate change accumulate and intensify, resource managers juggle existing goals and new mandates to operationalize adaptation. Fire managers contend with the direct effects of climate change on resources in addition to climate-induced disruptions to fire regimes and subsequent ecosystem effects. In systems stressed by warming and drying, increased fire activity amplifies the pace of change and scale of severe disturbance events, heightening the urgency for management action. Fire managers are asked to integrate information on climate impacts with their professional expertise to determine how to achieve management objectives in a changing climate with altered fire regimes. This is a difficult task, and managers need support as they incorporate climate adaptation into planning and operations. We present a list of adaptation strategies and approaches specific to fire and climate based on co-produced knowledge from a science–management partnership and pilot-tested in a two-day workshop with natural resource managers and regional stakeholders. This “menu” is a flexible and useful tool for fire managers who need to connect the dots between fire ecology, climate science, adaptation intent, and management implementation. It was created and tested as part of an adaptation framework used widely across the United States and should be applicable and useful in many fire-prone forest ecosystems.

Plastic and quantitative genetic divergence mirror environmental gradients among wild, fragmented populations of Impatiens capensis

PREMISE

Habitat fragmentation generates molecular genetic divergence among isolated populations, but few studies have assessed phenotypic divergence and fitness in populations where the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation are known. Phenotypic divergence could reflect plasticity, local adaptation, and/or genetic drift.

METHODS

We examined patterns and potential drivers of phenotypic divergence among 12 populations of jewelweed (Impatiens capensis) that show strong molecular genetic signals of isolation and drift among fragmented habitats. We measured morphological and reproductive traits in both maternal plants within natural populations and their self-fertilized progeny grown together in a common garden. We also quantified environmental divergence between home sites and the common garden.

RESULTS

Populations with less molecular genetic variation expressed less maternal phenotypic variation. Progeny in the common garden converged in phenotypes relative to their wild mothers but retained among-population differences in morphology, survival, and reproduction. Among-population phenotypic variance was 3-10× greater in home sites than in the common garden for 6 of 7 morphological traits measured. Patterns of phenotypic divergence paralleled environmental gradients in ways suggestive of adaptation. Progeny resembled their mothers less as the environmental distance between their home site and the common garden increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite strong molecular signatures of isolation and drift, phenotypic differences among these Impatiens populations appear to reflect both adaptive quantitative genetic divergence and plasticity. Quantifying the extent of local adaptation and plasticity and how these covary with molecular and phenotypic variation help us predict when populations may lose their adaptive capacity.

Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change

When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species’ phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence.

Adaptive responses to temperature and precipitation variation at the early-life stages of Pinus sylvestris

Early-stage fitness variation has been seldom evaluated at broad scales in forest tree species, despite the long tradition of studying climate-driven intraspecific genetic variation. In this study, we evaluated the role of climate in driving patterns of population differentiation at early-life stages in Pinus sylvestris and explored the fitness and growth consequences of seed transfer within the species range. We monitored seedling emergence, survival and growth over a 2-yr period in a multi-site common garden experiment which included 18 European populations and spanned 25° in latitude and 1700 m in elevation. Climate-fitness functions showed that populations exhibited higher seedling survival and growth at temperatures similar to their home environment, which is consistent with local adaptation. Northern populations experienced lower survival and growth at warmer sites, contrary to previous studies on later life stages. Seed mass was higher in populations from warmer areas and was positively associated with survival and growth at more southern sites. Finally, we did not detect a survival-growth trade-off; on the contrary, bigger seedlings exhibited higher survival probabilities under most climatic conditions. In conclusion, our results reveal that contrasting temperature regimes have played an important role in driving the divergent evolution of P. sylvestris populations at early-life stages.

Supporting the adaptive capacity of species through more effective knowledge exchange with conservation practitioners

There is an imperative for conservation practitioners to help biodiversity adapt to accelerating environmental change. Evolutionary biologists are well-positioned to inform the development of evidence-based management strategies that support the adaptive capacity of species and ecosystems. Conservation practitioners increasingly accept that management practices must accommodate rapid environmental change, but harbour concerns about how to apply recommended changes to their management contexts. Given the interest from both conservation practitioners and evolutionary biologists in adjusting management practices, we believe there is an opportunity to accelerate the required changes by promoting closer collaboration between these two groups. We highlight how evolutionary biologists can harness lessons from other disciplines about how to foster effective knowledge exchange to make a substantive contribution to the development of effective conservation practices. These lessons include the following: (1) recognizing why practitioners do and do not use scientific evidence; (2) building an evidence base that will influence management decisions; (3) translating theory into a format that conservation practitioners can use to inform management practices; and (4) developing strategies for effective knowledge exchange. Although efforts will be required on both sides, we believe there are rewards for both practitioners and evolutionary biologists, not least of which is fostering practices to help support the long-term persistence of species.

Living with exotic annual grasses in the sagebrush ecosystem

Exotic annual grasses dominate millions of hectares and increase fire frequency in the sagebrush ecosystem of North America. This devastating invasion is so costly and challenging to revegetate with perennial vegetation that restoration efforts need to be prioritized and strategically implemented. Management needs to break the annual grass-fire cycle and prevent invasion of new areas, while research is needed to improve restoration success. Under current land management and climate regimes, extensive areas will remain annual grasslands, because of their expansiveness and the low probability of transition to perennial dominance. We propose referring to these communities as Intermountain West Annual Grasslands, recognizing that they are a stable state and require different management goals and objectives than perennial-dominated systems. We need to learn to live with annual grasslands, reducing their costs and increasing benefits derived from them, at the same time maintaining landscape-level plant diversity that could allow transition to perennial dominance under future scenarios. To accomplish this task, we propose a framework and research to improve our ability to live with exotic annual grasses in the sagebrush biome.

Selection patterns on early-life phenotypic traits in Pinus sylvestris are associated with precipitation and temperature along a climatic gradient in Europe

Understanding the dynamics of selection is key to predicting the response of tree species to new environmental conditions in the current context of climate change. However, selection patterns acting on early recruitment stages and their climatic drivers remain largely unknown in most tree species, despite being a critical period of their life cycle. We measured phenotypic selection on Pinus sylvestris seed mass, emergence time and early growth rate over 2 yr in four common garden experiments established along the latitudinal gradient of the species in Europe. Significant phenotypic plasticity and among-population genetic variation were found for all measured phenotypic traits. Heat and drought negatively affected fitness in the southern sites, but heavy rainfalls also decreased early survival in middle latitudes. Climate-driven directional selection was found for higher seed mass and earlier emergence time, while the form of selection on seedling growth rates differed among sites and populations. Evidence of adaptive and maladaptive phenotypic plasticity was found for emergence time and early growth rate, respectively. Seed mass, emergence time and early growth rate have an adaptive role in the early stages of P. sylvestris and climate strongly influences the patterns of selection on these fitness-related traits.

Assisted Migration Field Tests in Canada and Mexico: Lessons, Limitations, and Challenges

Assisted migration of forest tree populations through reforestation and restoration is a climate change adaptation strategy under consideration in many jurisdictions. Matching climates in which seed sources evolved with near future climates projected for plantation sites should help reduce maladaptation and increase plantation health and productivity. For threatened tree species, assisted migration outside of the species range could help avert extinction. Here, we examine lessons, limitations, and challenges of assisted migration through the lens of three assisted migration field trials of conifers in Canada and Mexico: Pinus albicaulis Engelm., an endangered subalpine tree species in the mountains of western North America; the Picea glauca (Moench) Voss × P. engelmannii Parry ex Engelm hybrid complex, of great economic and ecological importance in western Canada, and Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., a tree species that provides overwintering sites for the monarch butterfly. We conclude that: (a) negative impacts of climate change on productivity of Picea glauca × P. engelmannii may be mitigated by planting seed sources from locations that are 3 °C mean coldest month temperature warmer than the plantation; (b) it is possible to establish Pinus albicaulis outside of its current natural distribution at sites that have climates that are within the species’ modelled historic climatic niche, although developing disease-resistant trees through selective breeding is a higher priority in the short term; (c) Abies religiosa performs well when moved 400 m upward in elevation and local shrubs (such as Baccharis conferta Kunth) are used as nurse plants; (d) new assisted migration field trials that contain populations from a wide range of climates tested in multiple disparate climates are needed, despite the costs; and (e) where naturalization of a migrated tree species in recipient ecosystem is viewed as undesirable, the invasive potential of the tree species should be assessed prior to large scale establishment, and stands should be monitored regularly following establishment.

Ten Years of Provenance Trials and Application of Multivariate Random Forests Predicted the Most Preferable Seed Source for Silviculture of Abies sachalinensis in Hokkaido, Japan

Research highlights: Using 10-year tree height data obtained after planting from the range-wide provenance trials of Abies sachalinensis, we constructed multivariate random forests (MRF), a machine learning algorithm, with climatic variables. The constructed MRF enabled prediction of the optimum seed source to achieve good performance in terms of height growth at every planting site on a fine scale. Background and objectives: Because forest tree species are adapted to the local environment, local seeds are empirically considered as the best sources for planting. However, in some cases, local seed sources show lower performance in height growth than that showed by non-local seed sources. Tree improvement programs aim to identify seed sources for obtaining high-quality timber products by performing provenance trials. Materials and methods: Range-wide provenance trials for one of the most important silvicultural species, Abies sachalinensis, were established in 1980 at nine transplanting experimental sites. We constructed an MRF to estimate the responses of tree height at 10 years after planting at eight climatic variables at 1 km × 1 km resolution. The model was applied for prediction of tree height throughout Hokkaido Island. Results: Our model showed that four environmental variables were major factors affecting height growth—winter solar radiation, warmth index, maximum snow depth, and spring solar radiation. A tree height prediction map revealed that local seeds showed the best performance except in the southernmost region and several parts of northern regions. Moreover, the map of optimum seed provenance suggested that deployment of distant seed sources can outperform local sources in the southernmost and northern regions. Conclusions: We predicted that local seeds showed optimum growth, whereas non-local seeds had the potential to outperform local seeds in some regions. Several deployment options were proposed to improve tree growth.