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Popović T, Ćurčić NB, Đurđić S, Stanojević G, Raković M. An Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of the Glacial Relict Woodpecker Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus. Animals (Basel) 2024; 14:1879. [PMID: 38997991 PMCID: PMC11240539 DOI: 10.3390/ani14131879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024] Open
Abstract
The Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is a rare and endangered woodpecker on the Balkan Peninsula. Despite being widely distributed in Northern Europe, its distribution on the Balkan Peninsula is limited to high-altitude forest habitats, where it represents a glacial relict. Assessing the climate change impacts on its distribution can be crucial for improving the conservation and future survival of this specialist species on the Balkan Peninsula. We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify its potential distribution in the past (last interglacial and last glacial maximum), present, and future (2050 and 2070). Our results indicate that this species had the greatest distribution during the last glacial maximum, after which its distribution contracted to areas where suitable environment persisted (high altitudes). The largest territory of the Balkan Peninsula has an unsuitable environment for the species to inhabit, while highly suitable habitats have the smallest share in the total area of suitable habitats. All future models show a decrease in the area of suitable habitats compared with the current period, indicating that global warming has a negative effect on the distribution of the species. We recommend that conservation activities must be of greater extent to ensure the species' survival in the Balkans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Teodora Popović
- Physical Geography Department, Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Đure Jakšića 9, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia; (N.B.Ć.); (G.S.)
| | - Nina B. Ćurčić
- Physical Geography Department, Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Đure Jakšića 9, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia; (N.B.Ć.); (G.S.)
| | - Snežana Đurđić
- Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 3/III, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia;
| | - Gorica Stanojević
- Physical Geography Department, Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Đure Jakšića 9, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia; (N.B.Ć.); (G.S.)
| | - Marko Raković
- Department of Biology and Inland Waters Protection, Institute for Multidisciplinary Research, University of Belgrade, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, 11060 Belgrade, Serbia;
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Hintsanen L, Marjakangas EL, Santangeli A, Johnston A, Lehikoinen A. Temperature niche composition change inside and outside protected areas under climate warming. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14134. [PMID: 37259595 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2022] [Revised: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under a warming climate is still debated. We estimated the climate-driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We hypothesized that communities inside protected areas include a higher proportion of cold-dwelling species than communities outside protected areas. We also hypothesized that communities shift to warm-dwelling species more slowly inside protected areas than outside. To study community changes, we used large-scale and long-term (1997-2019) data from the Breeding Bird Survey of Canada. To describe the temperature niche compositions of bird communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) annually for each community inside and outside protected areas. Generally, warm-dwelling species dominated communities with high CTI values. We modeled temporal changes in CTI as a function of protection status with linear mixed-effect models. We also determined which species contributed most to the temporal changes in CTI with a jackknife approach. As anticipated, CTI was lower inside protected areas than outside. However, contrary to our expectation, CTI increased faster over time inside than outside protected areas and warm-dwelling species contributed most to CTI change inside protected areas. These results highlight the ubiquitous impacts of climate warming. Currently, protected areas can aid cold-dwelling species by providing habitat, but as the climate warms, the communities' temperature compositions inside protected areas quickly begin to resemble those outside protected areas, suggesting that protected areas delay the impacts of climate warming on cold-dwelling species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leena Hintsanen
- The Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Andrea Santangeli
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST-NRF Centre of Excellence, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Alison Johnston
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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3
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Combined threats of climate change and land use to boreal protected areas with red-listed forest species in Finland. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
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4
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Sergio F, Blas J, Tanferna A, Hiraldo F. Protected areas enter a new era of uncertain challenges: extinction of a non‐exigent falcon in Doñana National Park. Anim Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- F. Sergio
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
| | - J. Blas
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
| | - A. Tanferna
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
| | - F. Hiraldo
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
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5
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Can Topographic Variation in Climate Buffer against Climate Change-Induced Population Declines in Northern Forest Birds? DIVERSITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/d12020056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Increased attention is being paid to the ecological drivers and conservation measures which could mitigate climate change-induced pressures for species survival, potentially helping populations to remain in their present-day locations longer. One important buffering mechanism against climate change may be provided by the heterogeneity in topography and consequent local climate conditions. However, the buffering capacity of this topoclimate has so far been insufficiently studied based on empirical survey data across multiple sites and species. Here, we studied whether the fine-grained air temperature variation of protected areas (PAs) affects the population changes of declining northern forest bird species. Importantly to our study, in PAs harmful land use, such as logging, is not allowed, enabling the detection of the effects of temperature buffering, even at relatively moderate levels of topographic variation. Our survey data from 129 PAs located in the boreal zone in Finland show that the density of northern forest species was higher in topographically heterogeneous PAs than in topographically more homogeneous PAs. Moreover, local temperature variation had a significant effect on the density change of northern forest birds from 1981–1999 to 2000–2017, indicating that change in bird density was generally smaller in PAs with higher topographic variation. Thus, we found a clear buffering effect stemming from the local temperature variation of PAs in the population trends of northern forest birds.
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Acreman M, Hughes KA, Arthington AH, Tickner D, Dueñas M. Protected areas and freshwater biodiversity: a novel systematic review distils eight lessons for effective conservation. Conserv Lett 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Acreman
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UK
- Hydro‐ecology Consulting Ltd Wallingford UK
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7
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Whittington J, Shepherd B, Forshner A, St‐Amand J, Greenwood JL, Gillies CS, Johnston B, Owchar R, Petersen D, Rogala JK. Landbird trends in protected areas using time‐to‐event occupancy models. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Brenda Shepherd
- Parks Canada Agency Jasper National Park Jasper Alberta Canada
| | - Anne Forshner
- Parks Canada Agency Banff, Kootenay and Yoho National Parks Radium Hot Springs British Columbia Canada
| | - Julien St‐Amand
- Parks Canada Agency Jasper National Park Jasper Alberta Canada
| | - Jennifer L. Greenwood
- Parks Canada Agency Banff, Kootenay and Yoho National Parks Radium Hot Springs British Columbia Canada
| | | | - Barb Johnston
- Parks Canada Agency Waterton Lakes National Park Waterton Alberta Canada
| | - Rhonda Owchar
- Parks Canada Agency Banff, Kootenay and Yoho National Parks Radium Hot Springs British Columbia Canada
| | - Derek Petersen
- Parks Canada Agency Banff, Kootenay and Yoho National Parks Radium Hot Springs British Columbia Canada
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Lehikoinen P, Santangeli A, Jaatinen K, Rajasärkkä A, Lehikoinen A. Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change-Evidence from large-scale, long-term abundance data. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:304-313. [PMID: 30393928 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2018] [Accepted: 09/07/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.
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Affiliation(s)
- Petteri Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Biology, University of Lund, Lund, Sweden
| | - Andrea Santangeli
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kim Jaatinen
- Nature and Game Management Trust Finland, Degerby, Finland
| | | | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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9
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Changing Thermal Landscapes: Merging Climate Science and Landscape Ecology through Thermal Biology. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s40823-018-0034-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
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10
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Berteaux D, Ricard M, St-Laurent MH, Casajus N, Périé C, Beauregard F, de Blois S. Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates. Sci Rep 2018; 8:4623. [PMID: 29545528 PMCID: PMC5854666 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-23050-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2017] [Accepted: 03/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominique Berteaux
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada.
| | - Marylène Ricard
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
- Centre for Northern Studies, Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Nicolas Casajus
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Catherine Périé
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, 2700, rue Einstein, C.1.200, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Frieda Beauregard
- Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-, Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Sylvie de Blois
- Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-, Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada.,McGill School of Environment, 3534 University Street, Montreal, QC, H3A 2A7, Canada
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11
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Virkkala R, Lehikoinen A. Birds on the move in the face of climate change: High species turnover in northern Europe. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:8201-8209. [PMID: 29075443 PMCID: PMC5648647 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2017] [Revised: 05/30/2017] [Accepted: 07/23/2017] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Species richness is predicted to increase in the northern latitudes in the warming climate due to ranges of many southern species expanding northwards. We studied changes in the composition of the whole avifauna and in bird species richness in a period of already warming climate in Finland (in northern Europe) covering 1,100 km in south-north gradient across the boreal zone (over 300,000 km2). We compared bird species richness and species-specific changes (for all 235 bird species that occur in Finland) in range size (number of squares occupied) and range shifts (measured as median of area of occupancy) based on bird atlas studies between 1974-1989 and 2006-2010. In addition, we tested how the habitat preference and migration strategy of species explain species-specific variation in the change of the range size. The study was carried out in 10 km squares with similar research intensity in both time periods. The species richness did not change significantly between the two time periods. The composition of the bird fauna, however, changed considerably with 37.0% of species showing an increase and 34.9% a decrease in the numbers of occupied squares, that is, about equal number of species gained and lost their range. Altogether 95.7% of all species (225/235) showed changes either in the numbers of occupied squares or they experienced a range shift (or both). The range size of archipelago birds increased and long-distance migrants declined significantly. Range loss observed in long-distance migrants is in line with the observed population declines of long-distance migrants in the whole Europe. The results show that there is an ongoing considerable species turnover due to climate change and due to land use and other direct human influence. High bird species turnover observed in northern Europe may also affect the functional diversity of species communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raimo Virkkala
- Finnish Environment Institute Natural Environment Centre Helsinki Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
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12
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Suárez‐Seoane S, Álvarez‐Martínez JM, Wintle BA, Palacín C, Alonso JC. Modelling the spatial variation of vital rates: An evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of correlative species distribution models. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12586] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Susana Suárez‐Seoane
- Department of Biodiversity and Environmental Management Facultad de Biología Universidad de León León Spain
| | - Jose Manuel Álvarez‐Martínez
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC) Madrid Spain
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute IH Cantabria Santander Spain
| | - Brendan A. Wintle
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Parkville, Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Carlos Palacín
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC) Madrid Spain
| | - Juan C. Alonso
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC) Madrid Spain
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13
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Santangeli A, Rajasärkkä A, Lehikoinen A. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:2241-2249. [PMID: 27685981 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2016] [Accepted: 09/19/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Santangeli
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ari Rajasärkkä
- Metsähallitus Parks & Wildlife Finland, P.O. Box 81, FI-90101, Oulu, Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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14
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Basham EW, González del Pliego P, Acosta-Galvis AR, Woodcock P, Medina Uribe CA, Haugaasen T, Gilroy JJ, Edwards DP. Quantifying carbon and amphibian co-benefits from secondary forest regeneration in the Tropical Andes. Anim Conserv 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- E. W. Basham
- Department of Geography; University of Sheffield; Sheffield South Yorkshire UK
| | - P. González del Pliego
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield South Yorkshire UK
| | - A. R. Acosta-Galvis
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Bogota Colombia
| | - P. Woodcock
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management; Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Ås Norway
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - C. A. Medina Uribe
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Bogota Colombia
| | - T. Haugaasen
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management; Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Ås Norway
| | - J. J. Gilroy
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management; Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Ås Norway
- School of Environmental Science; University of East Anglia; Norwich UK
| | - D. P. Edwards
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield South Yorkshire UK
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15
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Casajus N, Périé C, Logan T, Lambert MC, de Blois S, Berteaux D. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0152495. [PMID: 27015274 PMCID: PMC4807766 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2015] [Accepted: 03/15/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Casajus
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity and Centre d’Études Nordiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Catherine Périé
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Travis Logan
- Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B9, Canada
| | - Marie-Claude Lambert
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Sylvie de Blois
- Department of Plant Science and McGill School of Environment, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Dominique Berteaux
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity and Centre d’Études Nordiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
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16
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Lehikoinen A, Virkkala R. North by north-west: climate change and directions of density shifts in birds. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:1121-9. [PMID: 26691578 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2015] [Revised: 08/20/2015] [Accepted: 10/22/2015] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
There is increasing evidence that climate change shifts species distributions towards poles and mountain tops. However, most studies are based on presence-absence data, and either abundance or the observation effort has rarely been measured. In addition, hardly any studies have investigated the direction of shifts and factors affecting them. Here, we show using count data on a 1000 km south-north gradient in Finland, that between 1970-1989 and 2000-2012, 128 bird species shifted their densities, on average, 37 km towards the north north-east. The species-specific directions of the shifts in density were significantly explained by migration behaviour and habitat type. Although the temperatures have also moved on average towards the north north-east (186 km), the species-specific directions of the shifts in density and temperature did not correlate due to high variation in density shifts. Findings highlight that climate change is unlikely the only driver of the direction of species density shifts, but species-specific characteristics and human land-use practices are also influencing the direction. Furthermore, the alarming results show that former climatic conditions in the north-west corner of Finland have already moved out of the country. This highlights the need for an international approach in research and conservation actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, P. O. Box 17, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Mechelininkatu 34 a, P.O. Box 140, FI-00251, Helsinki, Finland
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17
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Thomas CD, Gillingham PK. The performance of protected areas for biodiversity under climate change. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12510] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Chris D. Thomas
- Department of Biology; University of York; Wentworth Way York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Phillipa K. Gillingham
- Faculty of Science and Technology; Christchurch House; Bournemouth University; Talbot Campus Fern Barrow Poole BH12 5BB UK
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Gillingham PK, Bradbury RB, Roy DB, Anderson BJ, Baxter JM, Bourn NAD, Crick HQP, Findon RA, Fox R, Franco A, Hill JK, Hodgson JA, Holt AR, Morecroft MD, O'Hanlon NJ, Oliver TH, Pearce-Higgins JW, Procter DA, Thomas JA, Walker KJ, Walmsley CA, Wilson RJ, Thomas CD. The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Phillipa K. Gillingham
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences; Faculty of Science and Technology; Bournemouth University; Talbot Campus Fern Barrow Poole BH12 5BB UK
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Richard B. Bradbury
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science; RSPB; The Lodge Sandy Beds SG19 2DL UK
| | - David B. Roy
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Maclean Building Benson Lane Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | - Barbara J. Anderson
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
- Landcare Research; Private Bag 1930 Dunedin 9054 New Zealand
| | - John M. Baxter
- Policy & Advice Directorate; Scottish Natural Heritage; Silvan House; 231 Corstorphine Road Edinburgh EH12 7AT UK
| | | | | | | | - Richard Fox
- Butterfly Conservation; Manor Yard East Lulworth Dorset BH20 5QP UK
| | - Aldina Franco
- School of Environmental Sciences; University of East Anglia; Norwich Research Park Norwich NR4 7T UK
| | - Jane K. Hill
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Jenny A. Hodgson
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour; University of Liverpool; Biosciences Building Crown Street Liverpool L69 7ZB UK
| | - Alison R. Holt
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield S10 2TN UK
| | - Mike D. Morecroft
- Natural England; Cromwell House; 15 Andover Road Winchester SO23 7BT UK
| | - Nina J. O'Hanlon
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
- The Scottish Centre for Ecology and the Natural Environment; University of Glasgow; Rowardennan Drymen Glasgow G63 0AW UK
| | - Tom H. Oliver
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Maclean Building Benson Lane Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | | | - Deborah A. Procter
- Joint Nature Conservation Committee; Monkstone House; City Road Peterborough PE1 1JY UK
| | | | - Kevin J. Walker
- Botanical Society of the British Isles (BSBI); c/o 97 Dragon Parade Harrogate North Yorkshire HG1 5DG UK
| | - Clive A. Walmsley
- Natural Resources Wales; Maes y Ffynnon; Penrhosgarnedd Bangor LL57 2DW UK
| | - Robert J. Wilson
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences; University of Exeter; Hatherly Building Exeter EX4 4PS UK
| | - Chris D. Thomas
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
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