Introduction pathway and climate trump ecology and life history as predictors of establishment success in alien frogs and toads

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

Ecophysiological models for global invaders: Is Europe a big playground for the African clawed frog?

One principle threat prompting the worldwide decline of amphibians is the introduction of nonindigenous amphibians. The African Clawed Frog, Xenopus laevis, is now one of the widest distributed amphibians occurring on four continents with ongoing range expansion including large parts of Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) are essential tools to predict the invasive risk of these species. Previous efforts have focused on correlative approaches but these can be vulnerable to extrapolation errors when projecting species' distributions in nonnative ranges. Recent developments emphasise more robust process-based models, which use physiological data like critical thermal limits and performance, or hybrid models using both approaches. Previous correlative SDMs predict different patterns in the potential future distribution of X. laevis in Europe, but it is likely that these models do not assess its full invasive potential. Based on physiological performance trials, we calculate size and temperature-dependent response surfaces, which are scaled to geographic performance layers matching the critical thermal limits. We then use these ecophysiological performance layers in a standard correlative SDM framework to predict the potential distribution in southern Africa and Europe. Physiological performance traits (standard metabolic rate and endurance time of adult frogs) are the main drivers for the predicted distribution, while the locomotor performance (maximum velocity and distance moved in 200 ms) of adults and tadpoles have low contributions.

Reproductive characteristics of American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) in their invasive range of the Pacific Northwest, USA

Invasive species pose a major threat to global biodiversity. The effects of invasive species can be strongly influenced and potentially mediated by their reproductive characteristics, such as fecundity, egg production, and duration and number of reproductive events. Selection for smaller body size at first reproduction can also play a role in their establishment, facilitating colonization and spread. The American bullfrog, native to the eastern U.S. (Lithobates catesbeianus), is a species that has invaded more than 40 countries across 4 continents. This species has become especially prevalent in the western United States since its introduction in the early 1900s. This study characterized reproductive characteristics of bullfrogs with emphasis on the minimum size at which males and females reach sexual maturity in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA invasion range. We collected and dissected 121 individuals in 2013 and 2017, quantifying characteristics of sexual maturity including snout-vent length, total length, sex, tympanum diameter, presence of distended oviducts or eggs for females, and testes length and sperm activity in males. Our results showed that the minimum reproductive size of both males and females was smaller relative to bullfrogs in their native range as well as in populations across their invasive range. Reduction in size at reproductive maturity is likely impacting the invasive success of American bullfrogs and this study gives us insight on management actions to control the invasion. Applying this insight, managers can adjust their definition of reproductively active adults, increasing the target population of culling and other control methods.

Evaluating Potential Distribution of High-Risk Aquatic Invasive Species in the Water Garden and Aquarium Trade at a Global Scale Based on Current Established Populations

Aquatic non-native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non-native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.

A taxonomically and geographically constrained information base limits non-native reptile and amphibian risk assessment: a systematic review

For many taxa, new records of non-native introductions globally occur at a near exponential rate. We undertook a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications on non-native herpetofauna, to assess the information base available for assessing risks of future invasions, resulting in 836 relevant papers. The taxonomic and geographic scope of the literature was also compared to a published database of all known invasions globally. We found 1,116 species of herpetofauna, 95% of which were present in fewer than 12 studies. Nearly all literature on the invasion ecology of herpetofauna has appeared since 2000, with a strong focus on frogs (58%), particularly cane toads (Rhinella marina) and their impacts in Australia. While fewer papers have been published on turtles and snakes, proportionately more species from both these groups have been studied than for frogs. Within each herpetofaunal group, there are a handful of well-studied species: R. marina, Lithobates catesbeianus, Xenopus laevis, Trachemys scripta, Boiga irregularis and Anolis sagrei. Most research (416 papers; 50%) has addressed impacts, with far fewer studies on aspects like trade (2%). Besides Australia (213 studies), most countries have little location-specific peer-reviewed literature on non-native herpetofauna (on average 1.1 papers per established species). Other exceptions were Guam, the UK, China, California and France, but even their publication coverage across established species was not even. New methods for assessing and prioritizing invasive species such as the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa provide useful frameworks for risk assessment, but require robust species-level studies. Global initiatives, similar to the Global Amphibian Assessment, using the species and taxonomic groups identified here, are needed to derive the level of information across broad geographic ranges required to apply these frameworks. Expansive studies on model species can be used to indicate productive research foci for understudied taxa.

Fast life history traits promote invasion success in amphibians and reptiles

Competing theoretical models make different predictions on which life history strategies facilitate growth of small populations. While ‘fast’ strategies allow for rapid increase in population size and limit vulnerability to stochastic events, ‘slow’ strategies and bet‐hedging may reduce variance in vital rates in response to stochasticity. We test these predictions using biological invasions since founder alien populations start small, compiling the largest dataset yet of global herpetological introductions and life history traits. Using state‐of‐the‐art phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that successful invaders have fast traits, such as large and frequent clutches, at both establishment and spread stages. These results, together with recent findings in mammals and plants, support ‘fast advantage’ models and the importance of high potential population growth rate. Conversely, successful alien birds are bet‐hedgers. We propose that transient population dynamics and differences in longevity and behavioural flexibility can help reconcile apparently contrasting results across terrestrial vertebrate classes.

Geographical variations in adult body size and reproductive life history traits in an invasive anuran, Discoglossus pictus

Variability in life history traits positively affects the establishment and expansive potential of invasive species. In the present study, we analysed the variation of body size in seven populations - two native and five invasive - of the painted frog (Discoglossus pictus, Anura: Discoglossidae), native to North Africa and introduced in southern France and the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula. Other life history traits (age at maturity, size at maturity, longevity, median age and potential reproductive lifespan) were analysed in a native and an invasive population. We observed geographic variations in adult body size, related mainly to mean annual precipitation. Thus, populations had greater body size as mean annual precipitation increased, resulting in bigger specimens in the invasive populations. Adult body size and growth rates also varied between sexes in all studied populations, with males significantly larger than females. Age distribution varied between native (1-5 years) and invasive populations (2-4 years) and also between sexes. Our results suggest that higher precipitation promotes faster growth rates and larger adult body size that could facilitate the successful establishment of invasive populations.

Adaptive responses to cool climate promotes persistence of a non-native lizard

Successful establishment and range expansion of non-native species often require rapid accommodation of novel environments. Here, we use common-garden experiments to demonstrate parallel adaptive evolutionary response to a cool climate in populations of wall lizards (Podarcis muralis) introduced from southern Europe into England. Low soil temperatures in the introduced range delay hatching, which generates directional selection for a shorter incubation period. Non-native lizards from two separate lineages have responded to this selection by retaining their embryos for longer before oviposition--hence reducing the time needed to complete embryogenesis in the nest--and by an increased developmental rate at low temperatures. This divergence mirrors local adaptation across latitudes and altitudes within widely distributed species and suggests that evolutionary responses to climate can be very rapid. When extrapolated to soil temperatures encountered in nests within the introduced range, embryo retention and faster developmental rate result in one to several weeks earlier emergence compared with the ancestral state. We show that this difference translates into substantial survival benefits for offspring. This should promote short- and long-term persistence of non-native populations, and ultimately enable expansion into areas that would be unattainable with incubation duration representative of the native range.

Understanding the biological invasion risk posed by the global wildlife trade: propagule pressure drives the introduction and establishment of Nearctic turtles

Biological invasions are a key component of human-induced global change. The continuing increase in global wildlife trade has raised concerns about the parallel increase in the number of new invasive species. However, the factors that link the wildlife trade to the biological invasion process are still poorly understood. Moreover, there are analytical challenges in researching the role of global wildlife trade in biological invasions, particularly issues related to the under-reporting of introduced and established populations in areas with reduced sampling effort. In this work, we use high-quality data on the international trade in Nearctic turtles (1999-2009) coupled with a statistical modelling framework, which explicitly accounts for detection, to investigate the factors that influence the introduction (release, or escape into the wild) of globally traded Nearctic turtles and the establishment success (self-sustaining exotic populations) of slider turtles (Trachemys scripta), the most frequently traded turtle species. We found that the introduction of a species was influenced by the total number of turtles exported to a jurisdiction and the age at maturity of the species, while the establishment success of slider turtles was best associated with the propagule number (number of release events), and the number of native turtles in the jurisdiction of introduction. These results indicate both a direct and indirect association between the wildlife trade and the introduction of turtles and establishment success of slider turtles, respectively. Our results highlight the existence of gaps in the number of globally recorded introduction events and established populations of slider turtles, although the expected bias is low. We emphasize the importance of researching independently the factors that affect the different stages of the invasion pathway. Critically, we observe that the number of traded individuals might not always be an adequate proxy for propagule pressure and establishment success.

Congener diversity, topographic heterogeneity and human-assisted dispersal predict spread rates of alien herpetofauna at a global scale

Understanding the factors that determine rates of range expansion is not only crucial for developing risk assessment schemes and management strategies for invasive species, but also provides important insight into the ability of species to disperse in response to climate change. However, there is little knowledge on why some invasions spread faster than others at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we examine the effects of human activities, species traits and characteristics of the invaded range on spread rates using a global sample of alien reptile and amphibian introductions. We show that spread rates vary remarkably among invaded locations within a species, and differ across biogeographical realms. Spread rates are positively related to the richness of native congeneric species and human-assisted dispersal in the invaded range but are negatively correlated with topographic heterogeneity. Our findings highlight the importance of environmental characteristics and human-assisted dispersal in developing robust frameworks for predicting species' range shifts.

Pathways of introduction of the invasive aquatic plant Cabomba caroliniana

The pathway and frequency of species' introductions can affect the extent, impact, and management of biological invasions. Here, we examine the pathway of introduction of the aquatic plant Cabomba caroliniana (fanwort) into Canada and the northern United States using plastid DNA sequence (intergenic spacers atpF-atpH, trnH-psbA, and trnL-trnF) and DNA content analyses. We test the hypothesis that the spread of fanwort is a result of commercial trade by comparing a Canadian population (Kasshabog Lake, ON) to native populations from southern U.S., introduced populations in northern U.S., and plants from commercial retailers. Thirteen plastid haplotypes were identified throughout North America, including one dominant haplotype, which was present in all C. caroliniana populations. Several rare haplotypes were used to infer shared colonization history. In particular, the Canadian population shared two rare alleles with a population from Massachusetts, suggesting range expansion of C. caroliniana from the northern U.S. However, the possibility of a commercial introduction cannot be excluded, as common alleles were shared between the Canadian population and both commercial and southern U.S. sources. Variation in C. caroliniana genome size was bimodal and populations were classified into “high” and “low” categories. The Canadian population had DNA contents similar to several northern U.S. populations (low DNA content). This may provide additional support for range expansion from these introduced populations rather than from commercial sources or populations in the southern U.S., which had high DNA content.