Surviving winter: Food, but not habitat structure, prevents crashes in cyclic vole populations

Effects of resource availability and interspecific interactions on Arctic and red foxes' winter use of ungulate carrion in the Fennoscandian low-Arctic tundra

In the Arctic tundra, predators face recurrent periods of food scarcity and often turn to ungulate carcasses as an alternative food source. As important and localized resource patches, carrion promotes co-occurrence of different individuals, and its use by predators is likely to be affected by interspecific competition. We studied how interspecific competition and resource availability impact winter use of carrion by Arctic and red foxes in low Arctic Fennoscandia. We predicted that the presence of red foxes limits Arctic foxes' use of carrion, and that competition depends on the availability of other resources. We monitored Arctic and red fox presence at supp lied carrion using camera traps. From 2006 to 2021, between 16 and 20 cameras were active for 2 months in late winter (288 camera-winters). Using a multi-species dynamic occupancy model at a week-to-week scale, we evaluated the use of carrion by foxes while accounting for the presence of competitors, rodent availability, and supplemental feeding provided to Arctic foxes. Competition affected carrion use by increasing both species' probability to leave occupied carcasses between consecutive weeks. This increase was similar for the two species, suggesting symmetrical avoidance. Increased rodent abundance was associated with a higher probability of colonizing carrion sites for both species. For Arctic foxes, however, this increase was only observed at carcasses unoccupied by red foxes, showing greater avoidance when alternative preys are available. Supplementary feeding increased Arctic foxes' carrion use, regardless of red fox presence. Contrary to expectations, we did not find strong signs of asymmetric competition for carrion in winter, which suggests that interactions for resources at a short time scale are not necessarily aligned with interactions at the scale of the population. In addition, we found that competition for carcasses depends on the availability of other resources, suggesting that interactions between predators depend on the ecological context.

Is the diet cyclic phase-dependent in boreal vole populations?

Herbivorous rodents in boreal, alpine and arctic ecosystems are renowned for their multi-annual population cycles. Researchers have hypothesised that these cycles may result from herbivore-plant interactions in various ways. For instance, if the biomass of preferred food plants is reduced after a peak phase of a cycle, rodent diets can be expected to become dominated by less preferred food plants, leading the population to a crash. It could also be expected that the taxonomic diversity of rodent diets increases from the peak to the crash phase of a cycle. The present study is the first to use DNA metabarcoding to quantify the diets of two functionally important boreal rodent species (bank vole and tundra vole) to assess whether their diet changed systematically in the expected cyclic phase-dependent manner. We found the taxonomic diet spectrum broad in both vole species but with little interspecific overlap. There was no evidence of systematic shifts in diet diversity metrics between the phases of the population cycle in either species. While both species' diet composition changed moderately between cycle phases and seasons, these changes were small compared to other sources of diet variation-especially differences between individuals. Thus, the variation in diet that could be attributed to cyclic phases is marginal relative to the overall diet flexibility. Based on general consumer-resource theory, we suggest that the broad diets with little interspecific overlap render it unlikely that herbivore-plant interactions generate their synchronous population cycles. We propose that determining dietary niche width should be the first step in scientific inquiries about the role of herbivore-plant interactions in cyclic vole populations.

Small rodent population cycles and plants - after 70 years, where do we go?

Small rodent population cycles characterise northern ecosystems, and the cause of these cycles has been a long-lasting central topic in ecology, with trophic interactions currently considered the most plausible cause. While some researchers have rejected plant-herbivore interactions as a cause of rodent cycles, others have continued to research their potential roles. Here, we present an overview of whether plants can cause rodent population cycles, dividing this idea into four different hypotheses with different pathways of plant impacts and related assumptions. Our systematic review of the existing literature identified 238 studies from 150 publications. This evidence base covered studies from the temperate biome to the tundra, but the studies were scattered across study systems and only a few specific topics were addressed in a replicated manner. Quantitative effects of rodents on vegetation was the best studied topic, and our evidence base suggests such that such effects may be most pronounced in winter. However, the regrowth of vegetation appears to take place too rapidly to maintain low rodent population densities over several years. The lack of studies prevented assessment of time lags in the qualitative responses of vegetation to rodent herbivory. We conclude that the literature is currently insufficient to discard with confidence any of the four potential hypotheses for plant-rodent cycles discussed herein. While new methods allow analyses of plant quality across more herbivore-relevant spatial scales than previously possible, we argue that the best way forward to rejecting any of the rodent-plant hypotheses is testing specific predictions of dietary variation. Indeed, all identified hypotheses make explicit assumptions on how rodent diet taxonomic composition and quality will change across the cycle. Passing this bottleneck could help pinpoint where, when, and how plant-herbivore interactions have - or do not have - plausible effects on rodent population dynamics.

Long-term monitoring of cycles in Clethrionomys rutilus in the Yukon boreal forest

Baseline studies of small rodent populations in undisturbed ecosystems are rare. We report here 50 years of monitoring and experimentation in Yukon of a dominant rodent species in the North American boreal forest, the red-backed vole Clethrionomys rutilus. These voles breed in summer, weigh 20-25 g, and reach a maximum density of 20 to 25 per ha. Their populations have shown consistent 3-4-year cycles for the last 50 years with the only change being that peak densities averaged 8/ha until 2000 and 18/ha since that year. During the last 25 years, we have measured food resources, predator numbers, and winter weather, and for 1-year social interactions, to estimate their contribution to changes in the rate of summer increase and the rate of overwinter decline. All these potential limiting factors could contribute to changes in density, and we measured their relative contributions statistically with multiple regressions. The rate of winter decline in density was related to both food supply and winter severity. The rate of summer increase was related to summer berry crops and white spruce cone production. No measure of predator numbers was related to winter or summer changes in vole abundance. There was a large signal of climate change effects in these populations. There is no density dependence in summer population growth and only a weak one in winter population declines. None of our results provide a clear understanding of what generates 3-4-year cycles in these voles, and the major missing piece may be an understanding of social interactions at high density.

Small rodent monitoring at Birkebeiner Road, Norway

Background

Northern small mammal populations are renowned for their multi-annual population cycles. Population cycles are multi-faceted and have extensive impacts on the rest of the ecosystem. In 2011, we started a student-based research activity to monitor the variation of small rodent density along an elevation gradient following the Birkebeiner Road, in southeast Norway. Fieldwork was conducted by staff and students at the University campus Evenstad, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, which has a long history of researching cyclic population dynamics. The faculty has a strong focus on engaging students in all parts of the research activities, including data collection. Small rodents were monitored using a set of snap trap stations. Trapped animals were measured (e.g. body mass, body length, sex) and dissected to assess their reproductive status. We also characterised the vegetation at trapping sites.

New information

We provide a dataset of small rodent observations that show fluctuating population dynamics across an elevation gradient (300 m to 1,100 m a.s.l) and in contrasting habitats. This dataset encompasses three peaks of the typical 3-4-year vole population cycles; the number of small rodents and shrews captured show synchrony and peaked in years 2014, 2017 and 2021. The bank vole Myodesglareolus was by far (87%) the most common species trapped, but also other species were observed (including shrews). We provide digital data collection forms and highlight the importance of long-term data collection.

A body composition model with multiple storage compartments for polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate warming is rapidly altering Arctic ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) need sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals, but increased sea-ice loss is lengthening periods when bears are without access to primary hunting habitat. During periods of food scarcity, survival depends on the energy that a bear has stored in body reserves, termed storage energy, making this a key metric in predictive models assessing climate change impacts on polar bears. Here, we developed a body composition model for polar bears that estimates storage energy while accounting for changes in storage tissue composition. We used data of dissected polar bears (n = 31) to link routinely collected field measures of total body mass and straight-line body length to the body composition of individual bears, described in terms of structural mass and two storage compartments, adipose and muscle. We then estimated the masses of metabolizable proteins and lipids within these storage compartments, giving total storage energy. We tested this multi-storage model by using it to predict changes in the lipid stores from an independent dataset of wild polar bears (n = 36) that were recaptured 8-200 days later. Using length and mass measurements, our model successfully predicted direct measurements of lipid changes via isotopic dilutions (root mean squared error of 14.5 kg). Separating storage into two compartments, and allowing the molecular composition of storage to vary, provides new avenues for quantifying energy stores of individuals across their life cycle. The multi-storage body composition model thus provides a basis for further exploring energetic costs of physiological processes that contribute to individual survival and reproductive success. Given bioenergetic models are increasingly used as a tool to predict individual fitness and population dynamics, our approach for estimating individual energy stores could be applicable to a wide range of species.

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.

Abundance and Population Structure of Small Rodents in Fruit and Berry Farms

Fruit and berry farms are anthropogenic habitats still inhabited by small mammals, though their presence is constantly affected by agricultural activities. Based on trapping data from 2018-2022, we analyzed the abundance and population structure of the dominant rodent species to assess changes in gender and age ratios by year and habitat, the annual and seasonal dynamics of relative abundance, and the relationship between breeding parameters and abundance. The relative abundance of the dominant species, common vole, yellow-necked mouse, striped field mouse, and bank vole, and their proportion in the investigated community varied according to year, season, and habitat. No outbreaks were recorded during the study period. The abundance of the striped field mouse exhibited a downward trend independently of habitat, while the abundance and proportions of the other three species were habitat-dependent. There was no consistent pattern between litter size and relative abundance in the same or following years. Given the ongoing conflict between biodiversity conservation in Europe and agriculture, the results contribute to a better understanding of the functioning and viability of rodent populations in fruit farms and may be used in agroecology and sustainable farming.

The effects of Borrelia infection on its wintering rodent host

In seasonal environments, appropriate adaptations are crucial for organisms to maximize their fitness. For instance, in many species, the immune function has been noticed to decrease during winter, which is assumed to be an adaptation to the season's limited food availability. Consequences of an infection on the health and survival of the host organism could thus be more severe in winter than in summer. Here, we experimentally investigated the effect of a zoonotic, endemic pathogen, Borrelia afzelii infection on the survival and body condition in its host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), during late autumn-early winter under semi-natural field conditions in 11 large outdoor enclosures. To test the interaction of Borrelia infection and energetic condition, four populations received supplementary nutrition, while remaining seven populations exploited only natural food sources. Supplementary food during winter increased the body mass independent of the infection status, however, Borrelia afzelii infection did not cause severe increase in the host mortality or affect the host body condition in the late autumn-early winter. While our study suggests that no severe effects are caused by B. afzelii infection on bank vole, further studies are warranted to identify any potentially smaller effects the pathogen may cause on the host fitness over the period of whole winter.

Population dynamics of an island population of water voles Arvicola amphibius (Linnaeus, 1758) with one major predator, the eagle owl Bubo bubo (Linnaeus, 1758), in northern Norway

Predator–prey relationships are of great significance to ecosystems, and their effects on the population dynamics of voles and lemmings (Microtinae) in Boreal and Arctic environments have long been of particular interest. A simple ecosystem with one major prey and one major predator could be an ideal setting for a study of their interactions. This is the situation on several small islands on the coast of northern Norway just below the Arctic Circle, with populations of water voles Arvicola amphibius preyed upon by the eagle owl Bubo bubo. The population dynamics of the water vole was studied by trapping and tagging in 2003–2018, eagle owl pellets were collected for analyses, eagle owl breeding attempts were recorded, and some weather variables collected from official recordings. After having been introduced well into the study period, the number of sheep Ovis aries was also recorded. Water voles were the main prey of the eagle owl, with 89% occurrence in pellets, with an overrepresentation of adults and males. Both predation, sheep grazing and extreme weather events influenced the vole population. Predator exclusion, as happened in three summers due to an intensive radio tracking study, especially increased the number of surviving young (in particular from the early cohorts) and the mass of adults. Extreme weather events, such as flooding in summer and deeply frozen ground in winter, most significantly reduced vole populations. Sheep grazing may exacerbate the effects of predation. A similar multitude of factors may affect populations of other rodent species as well.

Differential spatial responses of rodents to masting on forest sites with differing disturbance history

Mast seeding, the synchronized interannual variation in seed production of trees, is a well-known bottom-up driver for population densities of granivorous forest rodents. Such demographic effects also affect habitat preferences of the animals: After large seed production events, reduced habitat selectivity can lead to spillover from forest patches into adjacent alpine meadows or clear-cuts, as has been reported for human-impacted forests. In unmanaged, primeval forests, however, gaps created by natural disturbances are typical elements, yet it is unclear whether the same spillover dynamics occur under natural conditions. To determine whether annual variation in seed production drives spillover effects in naturally formed gaps, we used 14 years of small mammal trapping data combined with seed trap data to estimate population densities of Apodemus spp. mice and bank voles (Myodes glareolus) on 5 forest sites with differing disturbance history. The study sites, located in a forest dominated by European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Norway spruce (Picea abies), and silver fir (Abies alba), consisted of two primeval forest sites with small canopy gaps, two sites with larger gaps (after an avalanche event and a windthrow event), and a managed forest stand with closed canopy as a control. Hierarchical Bayesian N-mixture models revealed a strong influence of seed rain on small rodent abundance, which were site-specific for M. glareolus but not for Apodemus spp. Following years of moderate or low seed crop, M. glareolus avoided open habitat patches but colonized those habitats in large numbers after full mast events, suggesting that spillover events also occur in unmanaged forests, but not in all small rodents. The species- and site-specific characteristics of local density responding to food availability have potentially long-lasting effects on forest gap regeneration dynamics and should be addressed in future studies.

Population cycles and outbreaks of small rodents: ten essential questions we still need to solve

Most small rodent populations in the world have fascinating population dynamics. In the northern hemisphere, voles and lemmings tend to show population cycles with regular fluctuations in numbers. In the southern hemisphere, small rodents tend to have large amplitude outbreaks with less regular intervals. In the light of vast research and debate over almost a century, we here discuss the driving forces of these different rodent population dynamics. We highlight ten questions directly related to the various characteristics of relevant populations and ecosystems that still need to be answered. This overview is not intended as a complete list of questions but rather focuses on the most important issues that are essential for understanding the generality of small rodent population dynamics.

The effect of grazing on winter survival of midday gerbil (Meriones meridianus) of different genders

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of grazing on midday gerbil (Meriones meridianus) population characteristics and survival of animals of different genders. The experiment used a randomized complete block design and was conducted in Alxa Left Banner, Inner Mongolia, China, in 2002 (The agricultural reclamation plots set up in 1994). From April 2006 to October 2010, midday gerbils were live-trapped in 3 light grazing plots, 3 overgrazed plots, and 3 grazing exclusion plots. The quantity of vegetation was investigated in the two different grazing intensity areas and grazing exclusion area to determine the relationship between gerbils and plant food availability. The results suggested that there was higher gerbil density, individual body mass, and daily body mass growth rate in the grazing exclusion sites than the other sites across the whole year. Females had higher survival in grazing exclusion areas than in other treatments, but the males' survival showed the opposite pattern. Our results indicated that grazing negatively influenced the midday gerbil population by reducing food availability. Grazing influenced the survival rates of male midday gerbils positively, but had negative effects on females. The reason for gendered differences in survival rates of midday gerbils requires further investigation.

Extinction risk assessment of a Patagonian ungulate using population dynamics models under climate change scenarios

Climate change affects population cycles of several species, threatening biodiversity. However, there are few long-term studies on species with conservation issues and restricted distributions. Huemul is a deer endemic to the southern Andes in South America and it is considered endangered mostly due to a 50% reduction of its distribution over the last 500 years. To assess environmental variables potentially affecting huemul population viability and the impact of climate change, we developed population dynamics models. We used a 14-year survey data from Bernardo O'Higgins National Park, coastal Chilean Patagonia. We used Ricker models considering winter and spring temperatures and precipitation as variables influencing huemul population dynamics. We used the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to select models with the greatest predictive power. The two best models (ΔBIC < 2) included winter temperature and density-dependence population growth drivers. The best model considered a lateral effect, where winter temperature influences carrying capacity and the second best a vertical effect with winter temperature influencing R_max and carrying capacity. Population viability was evaluated using those models, projecting them over a 100-year period: (a) under current conditions and (b) under conditions estimated by Global Climate Models for 2050 and 2070. The extinction risk and quasi-extinction were estimated for this population considering two critical huemul abundance levels (15 and 30 individuals) for persistence. The population is currently in a quasi-extinction process, with extinction probabilities increasing with climate change. These results are crucial for conservation of species like huemul that have low densities and are threatened by climate change.

Weather and biotic interactions as determinants of seasonal shifts in abundance measured through nest-box occupancy in the Siberian flying squirrel

It is much debated whether the direct effects of weather or biotic interactions determine species’ responses to climate change. For example, an important biotic factor for herbivores in northern ecosystems is the availability of winter food. If the food availability changes because of the changing climate, it likely has major impact on the abundance of herbivores. To evaluate this, we need to know the relative roles of weather and biotic interactions, such as food availability and risk of predation, for the species. Here, we utilize long-term data on nest-box occupancy by Siberian flying squirrels (Pteromys volans) in Finland during 2002–2018. We built binary models with nest-box occupancy in different seasons as a response variable. Weather, winter food (tree mast), and predator presence (the Ural owl, Strix uralensis) modified seasonal nest-box occupancy patterns of the flying squirrel. However, the effect of weather was only important in the summer. The negative effect of predators was clear for adults but, surprisingly, not for overwinter survival of apparent juveniles. Considering the relative importance of different factors, winter food availability had a clear positive effect in each season. Our study supports the view that the effects of climate change mediate through multiple biotic interactions. In forest ecosystems, responses of masting trees to weather likely play an important role in species responses to climate change.

Evidence for different bottom-up mechanisms in wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) and bank vole (Myodes glareolus) population fluctuations in Southern Norway

Animals that feed on forest tree seeds, such as Apodemus mice, increase in number after a mast year. At high latitudes, there is a similar delayed response by Myodes voles to high seed crops of bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), but here the mechanism is hypothesised to be increased forage quality, caused by a trade-off between reproduction and defence in the plants. Both Apodemus mice and Myodes voles eat berries, but only the latter feed on bilberry plants. Hence, only Myodes voles are predicted to respond to bilberry peak years. A second prediction is that the effect should last longer than any possible direct impacts of bilberries, because the plants would not be able to rebuild their defence until the succeeding summer. During a 21-year snap-trapping study of small rodents in Southern Norway, the spring population of bank vole (Myodes glareolus) was positively related to a bilberry seed index of the previous year, indicating increased winter survival, whereas the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) was not affected. Also the succeeding autumn population index of the bank vole was positively related to the bilberry index of the previous year, even when controlling for spring population levels. The wood mouse population responded to mast years of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), whereas seeds of Norway spruce (Picea abies) seemed to have some impact on both species. It is concluded that these rodents are mainly limited from below, but by different mechanisms for the granivorous and the herbivorous species.

Impact of climate change on the small mammal community of the Yukon boreal forest

Long‐term monitoring is critical to determine the stability and sustainability of wildlife populations, and if change has occurred, why. We have followed population density changes in the small mammal community in the boreal forest of the southern Yukon for 46 years with density estimates by live trapping on 3–5 unmanipulated grids in spring and autumn. This community consists of 10 species and was responsible for 9% of the energy flow in the herbivore component of this ecosystem from 1986 to 1996, but this increased to 38% from 2003 to 2014. Small mammals, although small in size, are large in the transfer of energy from plants to predators and decomposers. Four species form the bulk of the biomass. There was a shift in the dominant species from the 1970s to the 2000s, with Myodes rutilus increasing in relative abundance by 22% and Peromyscus maniculatus decreasing by 22%. From 2007 to 2018, Myodes comprised 63% of the catch, Peromyscus 20%, and Microtus species 17%. Possible causes of these changes involve climate change, which is increasing primary production in this boreal forest, and an associated increase in the abundance of 3 rodent predators, marten (Martes americana), ermine (Mustela ermine) and coyotes (Canis latrans). Following and understanding these and potential future changes will require long‐term monitoring studies on a large scale to measure metapopulation dynamics. The small mammal community in northern Canada is being affected by climate change and cannot remain stable. Changes will be critically dependent on food–web interactions that are species‐specific.

Do phase-dependent life history traits in cyclic voles persist in a common environment?

Phenotype and life history traits of an individual are a product of environmental conditions and the genome. Environment can be current or past, which complicates the distinction between environmental and heritable effects on the phenotype in wild animals. We studied genome–environment interactions on phenotype and life history traits by transplanting bank voles (Myodes glareolus) from northern and southern populations, originating from low or high population cycle phases, to common garden conditions in large outdoor enclosures. The first experiment focused on the persistence of body traits in autumn-captured overwintering populations. The second experiment focused on population growth and body traits in spring-captured founder voles and F1 generation. This experiment lasted the breeding season and subsequent winter. We verified phase-dependent differences in body size at capture. In the common environment, adult voles kept their original body size differences both over winter and during the breeding season. In addition, the first generation born in the common environment kept the size distribution of their parent population. The increase phase population maintained a more rapid growth potential, while populations from the decline phase of the cycle grew slower. After winter, the F1 generation of the increasing northern population matured later than the F1 of the southern declining ones. Our results suggest a strong role of heredity or early life conditions, greater than that of current juvenile and adult environmental conditions. Environmental conditions experienced by the parents in their early life can have inter-generational effects that manifest in offspring performance.

Describing vegetation characteristics used by two rare forest-dwelling species: Will established reserves provide for coastal marten in Oregon?

Forest management guidelines for rare or declining species in the Pacific Northwest, USA, include both late successional reserves and specific vegetation management criteria. However, whether current management practices for well-studied species such as northern spotted owls (Strix occidentallis caurina) can aid in conserving a lesser known subspecies-Humboldt martens (Martes caurina humboldtensis)-is unclear. To address the lack of information for martens in coastal Oregon, USA, we quantified vegetation characteristics at locations used by Humboldt martens and spotted owls in two regions (central and southern coast) and at two spatial scales (the site level summarizing extensive vegetation surveys and regionally using remotely sensed vegetation and estimated habitat models). We estimated amount of predicted habitat for both species in established reserves. If predicted overlap in established reserves was low, then we reported vegetation characteristics to inform potential locations for reserves or management opportunities. In the Central Coast, very little overlap existed in vegetation characteristics between Humboldt martens and spotted owls at either the site or regional level. Humboldt martens occurred in young forests composed of small diameter trees with few snags or downed logs. Humboldt martens were also found in areas with very dense vegetation when overstory canopy and shrub cover percentages were combined. In the South Coast, Humboldt martens occurred in forests with smaller diameter trees than spotted owl sites on average. Coastal Humboldt martens may use stands of predicted high quality spotted owl habitat in the Pacific Northwest. Nonetheless, our observations suggest that coastal Humboldt martens exist in areas that include a much higher diversity of conifer size classes as long as extensive dense shrub cover, predominantly in the form of high salal and evergreen huckleberry, are available. We suggest that managers consider how structural characteristics (e.g., downed logs, shrub cover, patch size), are associated with long-term species persistence rather than relying on reserves based on broad cover types. Describing vegetation may partially describe suitability, but available prey or predation risk ultimately influence likelihood of individual Humboldt marten use. Guidelines for diversifying vegetation management, and retaining or restoring appropriate habitat conditions at both the stand level and regionally, may increase management flexibility and identify forest conditions that support both spotted owls and Humboldt martens.

Phase- and season-dependent changes in social behaviour in cyclic vole populations

Background

Social behaviour has been linked to hypotheses explaining multiannual population cycles of small rodents. In this paper we aimed to test empirically that the degree of space sharing among adult breeding female voles is higher during the increase phase than in the crash phase, and that the degree of sociality is positively related to population growth rate as suggested by Lambin and Krebs (Oikos 61:126–132, 1991) and Andreassen et al. (Oikos 122:507–515, 2013). We followed 24 natural bank vole Myodes glareolus populations over an area of 113 km² by monthly live trapping throughout a complete population cycle of three summers and two winters.

Results

Using spatially explicit capture-recapture models, we modelled the overlap in adult female home ranges and total population growth rate per season. We identified an increase phase before and during the peak density observation and a crash phase following the peak. Female home range overlap were seasonal- and phase-dependent, while population growth rate was associated with season and female home range overlap. High female home range overlap in the increase phase corresponded to a high population growth rate.

Conclusions

We suggest that intrinsic social behaviour plays a key role in the increase phase of vole population cycles, as social behaviour leads to an increased growth rate, whereas extrinsic factors (predation and/or food) initiate the crash phase. Our results are consistent with those of other studies in a variety of small rodent species.

Assessing space use in meadow voles: the relationship to reproduction and the stress axis

Voles are key mammals in understanding how social interactions can affect large-scale population processes. Previous studies have shown that at high population densities, meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) have a lower proportion of breeding animals, higher average corticosterone levels, and can be limited by female territorial spacing. Based on this, we compared corticosterone levels and spatial use between breeding and nonbreeding free-ranging adult meadow voles within populations. We measured intrasexual spatial overlap to examine if breeding females minimize occupying the same areas as other females, and noninvasively assessed corticosterone levels using fecal corticosterone metabolites (FCMs). We found that female meadow voles have much lower intrasexual spatial overlap than males, even though both sexes have similar range sizes, and that females have generally higher FCM levels than males. However, breeding and nonbreeding females did not differ from one another in spatial use or in FCM levels. Conversely, reproductive classes of males differed greatly in all measures: nonbreeding males had FCM levels that were two times higher than those of breeding males, occupied a smaller range, and had lower spatial overlap, indicating they were moving less widely than breeding males. We additionally validated an enzyme immunoassay for noninvasively measuring FCMs in meadow voles. The assay was successful in detecting an increase in corticosterone stimulated by adrenocorticotropic hormone injection; however, dexamethasone did not induce negative feedback. FCMs reflect circulating corticosterone levels approximately 5 h prior. These results highlight differences in FCMs and spacing in meadow voles related to sex and reproductive status, and reflect the respective strategies males and females employ during the breeding season.

Den site selection by male brown bears at the population's expansion front

Brown bears (Ursus arctos) spend about half of the year in winter dens. In order to preserve energy, bears may select denning locations that minimize temperature loss and human disturbance. In expanding animal populations, demographic structure and individual behavior at the expansion front can differ from core areas. We conducted a non-invasive study of male brown bear den sites at the male-biased, low-density western expansion front of the Scandinavian brown bear population, comparing den locations to the available habitat. Compared to the higher-density population core in which intraspecific avoidance may affect den site selection of subordinate bears, we expected resource competition in the periphery to be low, and all bears to be able to select optimal den sites. In addition, bears in the periphery had access to free-ranging domestic sheep during summer. We found that males in the periphery denned on high-elevation slopes, probably providing good drainage, longer periods of consistent, insulating snow cover and fewer melting-freezing events. Forests were the principal denning habitat and no dens were found in alpine areas. The Scandinavian brown bears have a history of intense harvest, including culling at the den. This may have exerted a selection pressure to avoid denning in open alpine habitat which compared to forests provide little cover. The bears denned away from main roads and in steep, rugged terrain, probably limiting human access. The odds for finding a bear den decreased with increasing distance to the population core where females could be found. Previous studies have documented directed movement of male brown bears from the male-biased population periphery toward the core areas during the mating season. In this way, denning males may be trading off between low resource competition and access to sheep in the low-density periphery, and mating opportunities in the higher-density population core.

The alternative prey hypothesis revisited: Still valid for willow ptarmigan population dynamics

The alternative prey hypothesis predicts that the interaction between generalist predators and their main prey is a major driver of population dynamics of alternative prey species. In Fennoscandia, changes in climate and human land use are assumed to alter the dynamics of cyclic small rodents (main prey) and lead to increased densities and range expansion of an important generalist predator, the red fox Vulpes vulpes. In order to better understand the role of these potential changes in community structure on an alternative prey species, willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus, we analyzed nine years of population census data from SE Norway to investigate how community interactions affected their population dynamics. The ptarmigan populations showed no declining trend during the study period, and annual variations corresponded with marked periodic small rodent peaks and declines. Population growth and breeding success were highly correlated, and both demographic variables were influenced by an interaction between red fox and small rodents. Red foxes affected ptarmigan negatively only when small rodent abundance was low, which is in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis. Our results confirm the important role of red fox predation in ptarmigan dynamics, and indicate that if small rodent cycles are disrupted, this may lead to decline in ptarmigan and other alternative prey species due to elevated predation pressure.

Meta-barcoding insights into the spatial and temporal dietary patterns of the threatened Asian Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii) with potential implications for diverging migratory strategies

Food resources are often not sufficient to satisfy the nutritional and energetic requirements during winter conditions at high latitudes. Dietary analysis is a prerequisite to fully understanding the feeding ecology of a species and the nature of trophic interactions. Previous dietary studies of Asian Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii) relied on behavioral observations, resulting in categorization of diet limited to broad taxonomic groupings. Here, we applied a high-throughput sequencing meta-barcoding approach to quantify the diet of resident and migratory Asian Great Bustard in three wintering sites during early winter and late winter. We detected 57 unique plant taxa in the bustard diet, among which 15 species were confirmed by a local plant database we generated. Both agricultural and natural foods were detected, indicating a relatively broad dietary niche. Spatiotemporal dietary changes were discovered, revealing diet differences among wintering sites and a general shift toward lower plant diversity later in winter. For the nonmigratory population, we detected a significantly more diverse array of plant species in their diet. We hypothesize that dietary variation between resident and migratory populations could be involved in the recent transition to partial migration in this species, although climate change can not be excluded. Collectively, these results support protecting unharvested grain fields and naturally unplowed lands to help conserve and promote population growth of Asian Great Bustard.

Weather-driven change in primary productivity explains variation in the amplitude of two herbivore population cycles in a boreal system

Vertebrate populations throughout the circumpolar north often exhibit cyclic dynamics, and predation is generally considered to be a primary driver of these cycles in a variety of herbivore species. However, weather and climate play a role in entraining cycles over broad landscapes and may alter cyclic dynamics, although the mechanism by which these processes operate is uncertain. Experimental and observational work has suggested that weather influences primary productivity over multi-year time periods, suggesting a pathway through which weather and climate may influence cyclic herbivore dynamics. Using long-term monitoring data, we investigated the relationships among multi-year weather conditions, measures of primary productivity, and the abundance of two cyclic herbivore species: snowshoe hare and northern red-backed vole. We found that precipitation (rain and snow) and growing season temperatures were strongly associated with variation in primary productivity over multi-year time horizons. In turn, fourfold variation in the amplitude of both the hare and vole cycles observed in our study area corresponded to long-term changes in primary productivity. The congruence of our results for these two species suggests a general mechanism by which weather and climate might influence cyclic herbivore population dynamics. Our findings also suggested that the association between climate warming and the disappearance of cycles might be initiated by changes in primary productivity. This work provides an explanation for observed influences of weather and climate on primary productivity and population cycles and will help our collective understanding of how future climate warming may influence these ecological phenomena in the future.

Surviving winter: Food, but not habitat structure, prevents crashes in cyclic vole populations

Vole population cycles are a major force driving boreal ecosystem dynamics in northwestern Eurasia. However, our understanding of the impact of winter on these cycles is increasingly uncertain, especially because climate change is affecting snow predictability, quality, and abundance. We examined the role of winter weather and snow conditions, the lack of suitable habitat structure during freeze‐thaw periods, and the lack of sufficient food as potential causes for winter population crashes. We live‐trapped bank voles Myodes glareolus on 26 plots (0.36 ha each) at two different elevations (representing different winter conditions) in southeast Norway in the winters 2013/2014 and 2014/2015. We carried out two manipulations: supplementing six plots with food to eliminate food limitation and six plots with straw to improve habitat structure and limit the effect of icing in the subnivean space. In the first winter, all bank voles survived well on all plots, whereas in the second winter voles on almost all plots went extinct except for those receiving supplemental food. Survival was highest on the feeding treatment in both winters, whereas improving habitat structure had no effect. We conclude that food limitation was a key factor in causing winter population crashes.