Universal expressions of population change by the Price equation: Natural selection, information, and maximum entropy production

Unifying quantification methods for sexual selection and assortative mating using information theory

Sexual selection plays a crucial role in modern evolutionary theory, offering valuable insight into evolutionary patterns and species diversity. Recently, a comprehensive definition of sexual selection has been proposed, defining it as any selection that arises from fitness differences associated with nonrandom success in the competition for access to gametes for fertilization. Previous research on discrete traits demonstrated that non-random mating can be effectively quantified using Jeffreys (or symmetrized Kullback-Leibler) divergence, capturing information acquired through mating influenced by mutual mating propensities instead of random occurrences. This novel theoretical framework allows for detecting and assessing the strength of sexual selection and assortative mating. In this study, we aim to achieve two primary objectives. Firstly, we demonstrate the seamless alignment of the previous theoretical development, rooted in information theory and mutual mating propensity, with the aforementioned definition of sexual selection. Secondly, we extend the theory to encompass quantitative traits. Our findings reveal that sexual selection and assortative mating can be quantified effectively for quantitative traits by measuring the information gain relative to the random mating pattern. The connection of the information indices of sexual selection with the classical measures of sexual selection is established. Additionally, if mating traits are normally distributed, the measure capturing the underlying information of assortative mating is a function of the square of the correlation coefficient, taking values within the non-negative real number set [0, +∞). It is worth noting that the same divergence measure captures information acquired through mating for both discrete and quantitative traits. This is interesting as it provides a common context and can help simplify the study of sexual selection patterns.

Network traits driving knowledge evolution in open collaboration systems

Network interpretation illuminates our understanding of the dynamic nature of cultural evolution. Guided by cultural evolution theory, this article explores how people collectively develop knowledge through knowledge collaboration network traits. Using network data from 910 artifacts (the WikiProject Aquarium Fishes articles) over 163 weeks, two studies were designed to understand how collaboration network traits drive population and artifact-level knowledge evolution. The first study examines the selection pressure imposed by10 network traits (against 11 content traits) on population-level evolutionary outcomes. While network traits are vital in identifying natural selection pressure, intriguingly, no significant difference was found between network traits and content traits, challenging a recent theory on network-driven evolution. The second study utilizes time series analysis to reveal that three network traits (embeddedness, connectivity, and redundancy) at a prior time predict future artifact development trajectory. This implies that people collectively explore various positions in a potential solution space, suggesting content exploration as a possible explanation of knowledge evolution. In summary, understanding the interplay between network traits and content exploration provides valuable insights into the mechanisms driving knowledge evolution and offers new avenues for future research.

Why Do Individuals Seek Information? A Selectionist Perspective

Several authors have proposed that mechanisms of adaptive behavior, and reinforcement learning in particular, can be explained by an innate tendency of individuals to seek information about the local environment. In this article, I argue that these approaches adhere to an essentialist view of learning that avoids the question why information seeking should be favorable in the first place. I propose a selectionist account of adaptive behavior that explains why individuals behave as if they had a tendency to seek information without resorting to essentialist explanations. I develop my argument using a formal selectionist framework for adaptive behavior, the multilevel model of behavioral selection (MLBS). The MLBS has been introduced recently as a formal theory of behavioral selection that links reinforcement learning to natural selection within a single unified model. I show that the MLBS implies an average gain in information about the availability of reinforcement. Formally, this means that behavior reaches an equilibrium state, if and only if the Fisher information of the conditional probability of reinforcement is maximized. This coincides with a reduction in the randomness of the expected environmental feedback as captured by the information theoretic concept of expected surprise (i.e., entropy). The main result is that behavioral selection maximizes the information about the expected fitness consequences of behavior, which, in turn, minimizes average surprise. In contrast to existing attempts to link adaptive behavior to information theoretic concepts (e.g., the free energy principle), neither information gain nor surprise minimization is treated as a first principle. Instead, the result is formally deduced from the MLBS and therefore constitutes a mathematical property of the more general principle of behavioral selection. Thus, if reinforcement learning is understood as a selection process, there is no need to assume an active agent with an innate tendency to seek information or minimize surprise. Instead, information gain and surprise minimization emerge naturally because it lies in the very nature of selection to produce order from randomness.

An Evolution Based on Various Energy Strategies

The simplest model of the evolution of agents with different energy strategies is considered. The model is based on the most general thermodynamic ideas and includes the procedures for selection, inheritance, and variability. The problem of finding a universal strategy (principle) as a selection of possible competing strategies is solved. It is shown that when there is non-equilibrium between the medium and agents, a direction in the evolution of agents arises, but at the same time, depending on the conditions of the evolution, different strategies can be successful. However, for this case, the simulation results reveal that in the presence of significant competition of agents, the strategy that has the maximum total energy dissipation of agents arising as a result of evolution turns out to be successful. Thus, it is not the specific strategy that is universal, but the maximization of dissipation. This result discovers an interesting connection between the basic principles of Darwin–Wallace evolution and the maximum entropy production principle.

The formal foundation of an evolutionary theory of reinforcement

Reinforcement learning is often described by analogy to natural selection. However, there is no coherent theory relating reinforcement learning to evolution within a single formal model of selection. This paper provides the formal foundation of such a unified theory. The model is based on the most general description of natural selection as given by the Price equation. We extend the Price equation to cover reinforcement learning as the result of a behavioral selection process within individuals and relate it to the principle of natural selection via the concept of statistical fitness predictors by means of a multilevel model of behavioral selection. The main result is the covariance-based law of effect, which describes reinforcement learning on a molar level by means of the covariance between behavioral allocation and a statistical fitness predictor. We further demonstrate how this abstract principle can be applied to derive theoretical explanations of various empirical findings, like conditioned reinforcement, blocking, matching and response deprivation. Our model is the first to apply the abstract principle of selection to derive a unified description of reinforcement learning and natural selection within a single model. It provides a general analytical tool for behavioral psychology in a similar way that the theory of natural selection does for evolutionary biology. We thus lay the formal foundation of a general theory of reinforcement as the result of behavioral selection on multiple levels.

The Fundamental Equations of Change in Statistical Ensembles and Biological Populations

A recent article in Nature Physics unified key results from thermodynamics, statistics, and information theory. The unification arose from a general equation for the rate of change in the information content of a system. The general equation describes the change in the moments of an observable quantity over a probability distribution. One term in the equation describes the change in the probability distribution. The other term describes the change in the observable values for a given state. We show the equivalence of this general equation for moment dynamics with the widely known Price equation from evolutionary theory, named after George Price. We introduce the Price equation from its biological roots, review a mathematically abstract form of the equation, and discuss the potential for this equation to unify diverse mathematical theories from different disciplines. The new work in Nature Physics and many applications in biology show that this equation also provides the basis for deriving many novel theoretical results within each discipline.

Simple unity among the fundamental equations of science

The Price equation describes the change in populations. Change concerns some value, such as biological fitness, information or physical work. The Price equation reveals universal aspects for the nature of change, independently of the meaning ascribed to values. By understanding those universal aspects, we can see more clearly why fundamental mathematical results in different disciplines often share a common form. We can also interpret more clearly the meaning of key results within each discipline. For example, the mathematics of natural selection in biology has a form closely related to information theory and physical entropy. Does that mean that natural selection is about information or entropy? Or do natural selection, information and entropy arise as interpretations of a common underlying abstraction? The Price equation suggests the latter. The Price equation achieves its abstract generality by partitioning change into two terms. The first term naturally associates with the direct forces that cause change. The second term naturally associates with the changing frame of reference. In the Price equation's canonical form, total change remains zero because the conservation of total probability requires that all probabilities invariantly sum to one. Much of the shared common form for the mathematics of different disciplines may arise from that seemingly trivial invariance of total probability, which leads to the partitioning of total change into equal and opposite components of the direct forces and the changing frame of reference. This article is part of the theme issue 'Fifty years of the Price equation'.

The 'algebra of evolution': the Robertson-Price identity and viability selection for body mass in a wild bird population

By the Robertson–Price identity, the change in a quantitative trait owing to selection, is equal to the trait's covariance with relative fitness. In this study, we applied the identity to long-term data on superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus, to estimate phenotypic and genetic change owing to juvenile viability selection. Mortality in the four-week period between fledging and independence was 40%, and heavier nestlings were more likely to survive, but why? There was additive genetic variance for both nestling mass and survival, and a positive phenotypic covariance between the traits, but no evidence of additive genetic covariance. Comparing standardized gradients, the phenotypic selection gradient was positive, β_P = 0.108 (0.036, 0.187 95% CI), whereas the genetic gradient was not different from zero, β_A = −0.025 (−0.19, 0.107 95% CI). This suggests that factors other than nestling mass were the cause of variation in survival. In particular, there were temporal correlations between mass and survival both within and between years. We suggest that use of the Price equation to describe cross-generational change in the wild may be challenging, but a more modest aim of estimating its first term, the Robertson–Price identity, to assess within-generation change can provide valuable insights into the processes shaping phenotypic diversity in natural populations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fifty years of the Price equation’.

The Introduction of Entropy and Information Methods to Ecology by Ramon Margalef

In ecology and evolution, entropic methods are now used widely and increasingly frequently. Their use can be traced back to Ramon Margalef's first attempt 70 years ago to use log-series to quantify ecological diversity, including searching for ecologically meaningful groupings within a large assemblage, which we now call the gamma level. The same year, Shannon and Weaver published a generally accessible form of Shannon's work on information theory, including the measure that we now call Shannon-Wiener entropy. Margalef seized on that measure and soon proposed that ecologists should use the Shannon-Weiner index to evaluate diversity, including assessing local (alpha) diversity and differentiation between localities (beta). He also discussed relating this measure to environmental variables and ecosystem processes such as succession. Over the subsequent decades, he enthusiastically expanded upon his initial suggestions. Finally, 2019 also would have been Margalef's 100th birthday.

The Price Equation Program: Simple Invariances Unify Population Dynamics, Thermodynamics, Probability, Information and Inference

The fundamental equations of various disciplines often seem to share the same basic structure. Natural selection increases information in the same way that Bayesian updating increases information. Thermodynamics and the forms of common probability distributions express maximum increase in entropy, which appears mathematically as loss of information. Physical mechanics follows paths of change that maximize Fisher information. The information expressions typically have analogous interpretations as the Newtonian balance between force and acceleration, representing a partition between the direct causes of change and the opposing changes in the frame of reference. This web of vague analogies hints at a deeper common mathematical structure. I suggest that the Price equation expresses that underlying universal structure. The abstract Price equation describes dynamics as the change between two sets. One component of dynamics expresses the change in the frequency of things, holding constant the values associated with things. The other component of dynamics expresses the change in the values of things, holding constant the frequency of things. The separation of frequency from value generalizes Shannon's separation of the frequency of symbols from the meaning of symbols in information theory. The Price equation's generalized separation of frequency and value reveals a few simple invariances that define universal geometric aspects of change. For example, the conservation of total frequency, although a trivial invariance by itself, creates a powerful constraint on the geometry of change. That constraint plus a few others seem to explain the common structural forms of the equations in different disciplines. From that abstract perspective, interpretations such as selection, information, entropy, force, acceleration, and physical work arise from the same underlying geometry expressed by the Price equation.

Entropy, or Information, Unifies Ecology and Evolution and Beyond

This article discusses how entropy/information methods are well-suited to analyzing and forecasting the four processes of innovation, transmission, movement, and adaptation, which are the common basis to ecology and evolution. Macroecologists study assemblages of differing species, whereas micro-evolutionary biologists study variants of heritable information within species, such as DNA and epigenetic modifications. These two different modes of variation are both driven by the same four basic processes, but approaches to these processes sometimes differ considerably. For example, macroecology often documents patterns without modeling underlying processes, with some notable exceptions. On the other hand, evolutionary biologists have a long history of deriving and testing mathematical genetic forecasts, previously focusing on entropies such as heterozygosity. Macroecology calls this Gini-Simpson, and has borrowed the genetic predictions, but sometimes this measure has shortcomings. Therefore it is important to note that predictive equations have now been derived for molecular diversity based on Shannon entropy and mutual information. As a result, we can now forecast all major types of entropy/information, creating a general predictive approach for the four basic processes in ecology and evolution. Additionally, the use of these methods will allow seamless integration with other studies such as the physical environment, and may even extend to assisting with evolutionary algorithms.

Information Theory Broadens the Spectrum of Molecular Ecology and Evolution

Information or entropy analysis of diversity is used extensively in community ecology, and has recently been exploited for prediction and analysis in molecular ecology and evolution. Information measures belong to a spectrum (or q profile) of measures whose contrasting properties provide a rich summary of diversity, including allelic richness (q=0), Shannon information (q=1), and heterozygosity (q=2). We present the merits of information measures for describing and forecasting molecular variation within and among groups, comparing forecasts with data, and evaluating underlying processes such as dispersal. Importantly, information measures directly link causal processes and divergence outcomes, have straightforward relationship to allele frequency differences (including monotonicity that q=2 lacks), and show additivity across hierarchical layers such as ecology, behaviour, cellular processes, and nongenetic inheritance.

Universal expressions of population change by the Price equation: Natural selection, information, and maximum entropy production

The Price equation shows the unity between the fundamental expressions of change in biology, in information and entropy descriptions of populations, and in aspects of thermodynamics. The Price equation partitions the change in the average value of a metric between two populations. A population may be composed of organisms or particles or any members of a set to which we can assign probabilities. A metric may be biological fitness or physical energy or the output of an arbitrarily complicated function that assigns quantitative values to members of the population. The first part of the Price equation describes how directly applied forces change the probabilities assigned to members of the population when holding constant the metrical values of the members—a fixed metrical frame of reference. The second part describes how the metrical values change, altering the metrical frame of reference. In canonical examples, the direct forces balance the changing metrical frame of reference, leaving the average or total metrical values unchanged. In biology, relative reproductive success (fitness) remains invariant as a simple consequence of the conservation of total probability. In physics, systems often conserve total energy. Nonconservative metrics can be described by starting with conserved metrics, and then studying how coordinate transformations between conserved and nonconserved metrics alter the geometry of the dynamics and the aggregate values of populations. From this abstract perspective, key results from different subjects appear more simply as universal geometric principles for the dynamics of populations subject to the constraints of particular conserved quantities.